Going to be a good year for NJ real estate

From the Otteau Group:

NJ Home Sales Showing More Balance

In February, the number of contract purchases by home buyers exceeded the same month in the prior year for the 30th consecutive month, reflecting an 8% increase over February 2016. Considering the 26% increase (y-o-y) in February of 2016, home sales have increased by 35% over the past 2 years. This latest gain was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of February of the past 12 years.

While the number of home sales occurring in New Jersey continue to rise, registering an 11% increase y-t-d, the largest gain has occurred for homes between $1.0-Million – $2.5-Million, which have increased by 19%. Home sales in excess of $2.5-Million have also been increasing for the first time in more than a decade. While it is still early in the year to draw any meaningful conclusions, there seems to be a correlation to improving economic indicators and consumer sentiment.

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, the supply of homes being offered for sale remains constricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has declined by nearly 6,700 (-14%) compared to one year ago. This is also about 32,000 (-44%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 4.7 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago when it was 5.9 months.

Currently, nearly all of New Jersey’s 21 counties (90%) have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson County continues to experience the strongest market conditions in the state with just 2.4 months of supply, followed by Essex, Middlesex, Morris, Union, Somerset and Monmouth Counties, which all have fewer than 4.5 months of supply. All of the counties with an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 8 months or greater are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Atlantic (9.3) and Salem (10.2), however, even these counties are beginning to experience strengthening conditions.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to Going to be a good year for NJ real estate

  1. grim says:

    Another interesting tidbit from the latest Otteau Report – Central NJ has the lowest rental vacancy in the nation at 2.2%.

  2. Mike says:

    In the nation?! Dam

  3. Pumpkin says:

    3b, and any others, still laughing at my jersey call? Is the writing on the wall starting to look a little clearer?

    So is nj dead, or has pumps been right with his assessment of the nj economy and housing market?

  4. 3b says:

    Pumps : as long as the articles support your belief based on the fact you bought a house than it must be true. If they don’t then a cording to you they are morons full of crap don’t know what they are talking about and on and on! I have owned and rented and I don’t base my decisions or beliefs on whether or not something may impact me negatively financially so therefore it can’t be true. As for Otteau he has always been a rah rah real estate cheer leader so I don’t pay any attention to him one way or the other.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, it’s all in the data my friend. No opinion being pushed.

  6. D-FENS says:

    Jersey lawmakers look to dig the $135B pension hole even deeper
    By Post Editorial Board April 2, 2017 | 7:32pm


    Jersey lawmakers just don’t get it: The state’s massive pension-fund shortfalls last week prompted Moody’s to downgrade Trenton’s credit rating for the 11th time under Gov. Chris Christie, yet the Legislature wants to make the problems worse.

    Moody’s cited New Jersey’s gargantuan, and growing, unfunded pension liabilities as key to its decision to lower the state’s rating from A2 to A3 — the second downgrade in four months.

    The move reflects the “negative impact of significant pension underfunding” and “a persistent structural imbalance,” wrote Moody’s analyst Baye Larsen. Despite Christie’s notable boosts in payments to the funds, state contributions “remain well below the actuarial recommended” amount.

    Yet lawmakers (of both parties) want Christie to sign a bill that would hand control of one of the state’s biggest funds — for police and firefighter pensions — to their union representatives.

    “Giving management to the pension beneficiaries removes political interest from the investments and places responsibility with the employees who will benefit,” says Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D).

    Uh, not quite — because the employees wouldn’t face any risk. With a majority of votes on the new board, union reps could hike benefits and slice the amount members must chip in. And if that plunges the fund further underwater, Jersey’s taxpayers would be the ones on the hook.

    The “employees who will benefit” would have no responsibility whatsoever — except to cash their pension checks.

    When other unions have gained such power on public pension boards, notes Manhattan Institute pension expert Steve Malanga, it has led to “catastrophic outcomes.” He cites the records of the city of Dallas, for example, and the state of Texas.

    In Detroit, worker and retiree reps on the government fund kept upping benefits, despite the city’s worsening finances. The resulting massive debt was a huge factor in driving the city into bankruptcy.

    Indeed, it’s mad schemes like this that got the Garden State in trouble in the first place. For decades, lawmakers and governors made too many promises to public-sector unions — without putting aside any money to pay for it all. In 2015, Jersey’s pension officially became the worst-funded in America.

    Christie has funneled nearly $5 billion to the pension funds, more than the previous five governors combined. Yet that’s barely made a dent in the $135 billion (and growing) hole.

    And now state lawmakers want to pound the shovels even faster?

    Their bill should certainly be a no-brainer for Christie to veto — but New Jerseyans, beware: Your next governor may be happy to go along with this madness.

  7. Ottoman says:

    Everyone see President Suzy Snowflake prove once again that people on the right are the biggest pvssies on the planet…LOL!!!

  8. Ottoman says:

    Well, lets see…Moody’s track record during the stock market bubble was….


    Also, any “analysis” from anyone at the Manhattan Institute is worthless. They argued that gay marriage would destroy America and women shouldn’t be in the workforce.

    D-FENS says:
    April 3, 2017 at 7:45 am
    Jersey lawmakers look to dig the $135B pension hole even deeper
    By Post Editorial Board April 2, 2017 | 7:32pm

  9. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Have to deliver reviews to my 5 remaining reports today, so decided to take the train in instead of driving and arriving at 6:30am and staying for a 12. Now stuck in tunnel as train ahead of us derailed. Never commuting by rail again!

  10. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Now moving backwards and back in Jersey.

  11. Juice Box says:

    What is worse is they suck at twitter, no update for anyone on this derailment.

    Last post was 15 hours ago.

    NJ TRANSIT‏ @NJTRANSIT 15h15 hours ago
    #HBLR has resumed normal weekend service in both directions following earlier track maintenance between
    Marin Boulevard & Harsimus Cove

  12. Juice Box says:

    Goota love the #PennStation tweets, someone is streaming the train going backward.

    Then there is this gem

    Don’t go to #PennStation to ride a train, that part’s closed.

    However, if you want a stranger to spoon you on the escalators: COME ON OVER!


  13. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Now stuck standing on a platform in Secaucus. Can’t even get downstairs. Heading back home is distinct possibility. Will deliver reviews on Thursday. Rail was more reliable in India.

  14. Juice Box says:

    How exactly does a NJ Transit train derail twice in 10 days anyway? Do they have some kind of button that the conductor pushes to cause the train to do a bunny hop?

  15. 30 year realtor says:


    If you keep cheering eventually you will be right. Just like the broken clock which is still right twice a day.

  16. karma police says:

    Good morning NJREreporters!
    Question for the experts (hint: not you Michael Pumpkin)
    Going through property tax appeal in Union County. I was contacted by the assessor to schedule a property inspection after filing all the paperwork.
    Am I obligated to let this guy in my home?
    Thanks in advance!

    I miss the days of Hoboken being on fire! Where’s Ralph?

  17. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    If you don’t let them in, you receive maximum assessment. Simple.

  18. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Still standing on platform at 15X. Should be on next train to Hoboken.

  19. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    The lack of any information is astounding. On a train now and supposedly have a seat to Hoboken.

  20. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Can’t wait to see epic crowds in Hoboken. Train now crawling to Hoboken. Would have gone home, but no way to get there. Even Uber was overloaded.

  21. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    In Hoboken

  22. Juice Box says:

    Go straight to the Shannon Lounge….

  23. 3b says:

    Steam stop writing off nj. We have a great transportation and infrastructure system. It’s the envy of the country if not the world.

  24. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    PAH was Still crowded, but seen worse. 11am desktime ain’t happening. Now on M train, headed to 53rd and 5th and then one long avenue walk. Hope you all enjoyed riding along with me on government transit.

  25. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    PATH was Still crowded, but seen worse. 11am desktime ain’t happening. Now on M train, headed to 53rd and 5th and then one long avenue walk. Hope you all enjoyed riding along with me on government transit.

  26. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Arrived at my desk at 11:10am. Not bad. Left house at 8am (though I did drop Gator Jr. off at school just after he ran in for my mobile ordered $1 DD coffee since the Ranger’s won last night). Commute home should be fun.

  27. D-FENS says:

    Could be worse. You could have been on a Russian subway train this morning.

  28. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:


  29. Bystander says:


    You’ll be happy to know it was only a “minor” derailment per media. Wonder if NJT head made sure that word was used?

  30. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    So does that make my delay minor?

  31. Comrade Nom Deplume, secretly happy that there are so many idiots says:

    Another “AP Fact Check” that isn’t.


    There is a HUGE glaring error of omission in this “fact check” and an equally glaring error of commission in the way the author presents information in a highly misleading way.

    But I guess if you’re a liberal and a product of the NJEA-run schools, that won’t be apparent to you. I’m waiting for my ditzy liberal friend Carol to post it on her FB page.

  32. Damon says:

    I’ll put her on side effects of 10mg of prednisone daily “I have made conscious efforts to engage in a positive way with the executive and I have no wish to become embroiled in an unhelpful debate but I would have been failing in my duty if I had not written to the ministers to express concern over a lack of political regard for independent judicial decision making.”
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  33. Juice Box says:

    So Susan Rice was spying on her replacement, Michael Flynn?

  34. Juice Box says:

    Not a peep from CNN on Susan Rice.


  35. Juice Box says:

    JUST IN: #SusanRice says unmasking was a spontaneous reaction sparked by a hateful YouTube video.

  36. Fabius Maximus says:

    Wasn’t the pension deficit $60 million when CC took office? Given the massive run up in the market, that’s an impressive fail.

  37. hobojoe says:

    Well, Hoboken may be on fire again but it’s different this time. Sunday afternoon walking the 5 blocks from where I park my car to my apartment I passed 4 open houses on one street. Not a single prospective buyer standing outside was speaking english. Lots of overseas money pouring into town.

    karma police says:
    April 3, 2017 at 9:37 am
    I miss the days of Hoboken being on fire! Where’s Ralph?

  38. Forest says:

    I’m about to run out of credit cheapest price for estrace cream And staying employed helps with everything from retirement account contributions to enabling a delayed filing for Social Security benefits.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Time for the Pumps “I told you so” supporting article of the day.

    “The odd argument pops up now and then that we’re overdue for a recession.

    People point out that the bull market is the second-longest and the second-most-expensive since World War II, and that this economic expansion is almost twice as long as the average expansion since 1900,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for U.S. equities at CFRA. “That, and the knowledge that this economic expansion

    has been pretty anemic ever since its start, causes people to question what could go wrong.”

    Adam Posen, who leads the Peterson Institute for International Economics and worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the ’90s, said in a CNBC interview last week that the U.S. economy is heading into a “boom-bust” cycle and that he expects a recession in the next two years.

    While President Donald Trump has promised that tax cuts and deregulation will help lift annual economic growth to 4 percent, Posen said we can’t even reach 3 percent given the current backdrop of low unemployment and low productivity growth. In the fourth quarter, U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. Trump’s economic stimulus plan, including a giant infrastructure renewal program if it all happens, would fuel what Posen called a “further credit boom,” which would lead the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten lending conditions even more than many expect, and voila! Posen’s bust.

    Then there’s this curiosity, which Bloomberg’s Rich Miller has addressed. Since the days of Teddy Roosevelt, the vast majority of Republican administrations have seen recessions soon after taking power. This table shows that of the 10 recessions that unspooled during a president’s first two years, all did so with a Republican in the White House. (Four of the Democratic administrations saw recessions, too, though later in the first term and/or in the second.)

    Charmingly, Stovall, who provided the table, argues against it. “My feeling is, it could have gone either way,” he said. “If Al Gore had won in 2000 and had two terms, he would’ve had two recessions. And what if Ross Perot didn’t run in 1992 and Bush had won again? What if Clinton then won in 1996 and wound up being president for eight years from then on? He would have had a recession.”

    Plus, the Fed just raised interest rates for the second time in three months and is likely to raise them at least twice more this year. That reflects confidence in a strengthening economy and even fears of inflation down the road.

    Putting aside the spooky presidential tally, then, what should we look at?

    Here are the four indicators Stovall finds helpful in identifying recession risk—and right now they are far from signaling tough economic times.

    Housing starts

    On average, housing starts have been down 25 percent year-over-year around the point at which a recession was declared, Stovall said. Today, that number is a positive 6.2 percent.

    Consumer confidence

    People generally aren’t going to buy houses unless they are confident they can keep their jobs. Since the mid-1970s, consumer confidence has averaged a 10 percent decline year-over-year before a recession was announced, he said. That figure is now a positive 5 percent.

    Leading indicators

    Traditionally the index of leading economic indicators has been down by about 3 percent around the time a recession was called, on a rolling six-month basis. It’s now up 1.1 percent.

    The yield curve

    Since 1960, the yield curve—the gap between the yield on the 10-year and one-year Treasuries—has been inverted at negative 0.8 percent ahead of a recession. Today, there is a positive quarter-percent gap between the yields.

    Stovall does think the stock market is overvalued by about 7 to 8 percent by some measures, so “a pullback of 5 to 10 percent would be refreshing. 1 Since the market overreacts, a pullback could even become a correction, he said. He sees that as good news, too, saying it would presage a recovery.

    Recession talk heartens Stovall. “When everyone feels optimistic, there is no money left on the sidelines to propel prices,” he said. “Now, we still have room to go through the FOMO phase.”


  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The gem of the article. Read it and understand it.

    “Recession talk heartens Stovall. “When everyone feels optimistic, there is no money left on the sidelines to propel prices,” he said. “Now, we still have room to go through the FOMO phase.””

  41. D-FENS says:

    The “Alt-Left” is now driving Democratic policy


  42. D-FENS says:

    Wow…NJEA may back GOP challenger to NJ Senate President Stephen Sweeney


  43. Arturo says:

    Which year are you in? order amantadine Barclays Bank Plc said on Thursday the shares being sold bythe Department for Business, Innovation and Skills would bepriced between 103 pence and 105 pence

  44. D-FENS says:

    Former US Attorney: Susan Rice Ordered Spy Agencies To Produce ‘Detailed Spreadsheets’ Involving Trump



    Former President Barack Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice ordered U.S. spy agencies to produce “detailed spreadsheets” of legal phone calls involving Donald Trump and his aides when he was running for president, according to former U.S. Attorney Joseph diGenova.

    “What was produced by the intelligence community at the request of Ms. Rice were detailed spreadsheets of intercepted phone calls with unmasked Trump associates in perfectly legal conversations with individuals,” diGenova told The Daily Caller News Foundation Investigative Group Monday.

    “The overheard conversations involved no illegal activity by anybody of the Trump associates, or anyone they were speaking with,” diGenova said. “In short, the only apparent illegal activity was the unmasking of the people in the calls.”

    Other official sources with direct knowledge and who requested anonymity confirmed to TheDCNF diGenova’s description of surveillance reports Rice ordered one year before the 2016 presidential election.


    Michael Doran, former NSC senior director, told TheDCNF Monday that “somebody blew a hole in the wall between national security secrets and partisan politics.” This “was a stream of information that was supposed to be hermetically sealed from politics and the Obama administration found a way to blow a hole in that wall.”

    Doran charged that potential serious crimes were undertaken because “this is a leaking of signal intelligence.”

    “That’s a felony,” he told TheDCNF. “And you can get 10 years for that. It is a tremendous abuse of the system. We’re not supposed to be monitoring American citizens. Bigger than the crime, is the breach of public trust.”

    Waurishuk said he was most dismayed that “this is now using national intelligence assets and capabilities to spy on the elected, yet-to-be-seated president.”

    “We’re looking at a potential constitutional crisis from the standpoint that we used an extremely strong capability that’s supposed to be used to safeguard and protect the country,” he said. “And we used it for political purposes by a sitting President. That takes on a new precedent.”

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nothing racist about this. Just imagine if the rolls were switched. Look at the charges, just ignores the hate crime.

    “She is wanted in Virginia on charges of malicious wounding, assault, and destruction of property.”


  46. Fast Eddie says:


    It’s fake news. Only the Russian spy stuff is legitimate. Just ask cunt, I mean puzzy and the Ottoman.

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  51. Juice Box says:

    Anybody ever use Schluter Ditra Kerdi board for a shower? I am in the middle of my bathroom reno and will be slapping it up this weekend, that is if the new Jacuzzi Air tub arrives on time.

    This is the look I am going for.


  52. Juice Box says:

    Don’t ever talk to HR, that is unless they have Hotline that can get you a whistleblower judgement.


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  55. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    What is advantage of Kerdi over a cement board?

  56. No One says:

    Good thing you didn’t short Tesla yet. Crowded shorts make me nervous. This is a good example of why.

  57. Juice Box says:

    re: advantage of Kerdi.

    My kids bathroom is on the second floor adjacent to my great room and I need to make sure it is waterproof as possible. Kerdi board does not need an additional vapor barrier like cement board. Cement board does absorb some water. The Kerdi board’s membrane is it’s surface. It has no holes. It is a moisture and vapor barrier, and for some additional money I hope to get an installation that would achieve a higher standard of waterproofing. There is also an insulation factor as well with part of the bathrooms external walls. It looks easy enough for me to do as well, as it is lightweight and cuts easily and there is a good 10 year warranty. I plan on installing it like this.


  58. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Good thing you didn’t short Tesla yet. Crowded shorts make me nervous. This is a good example of why.

    I want to short Tesla in the worst way but I refuse to underestimate the power of the darling status that Musk has taken on. He’s the new Steve Jobs, even if he’s never posted a profit.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    $1.3 Trillion in student loan debt now. It will negatively affect both the economy and the housing market for decades to come.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Juice – LOL!
    JUST IN: #SusanRice says unmasking was a spontaneous reaction sparked by a hateful YouTube video.

  61. chicagofinance says:

    “Schluter Ditra Kerdi” Is that something related to the Kama Sutra?

    Juice Box says:
    April 4, 2017 at 12:32 pm
    Anybody ever use Schluter Ditra Kerdi board for a shower? I am in the middle of my bathroom reno and will be slapping it up this weekend, that is if the new Jacuzzi Air tub arrives on time.

  62. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    The only thing I have successfully shorted was real estate. As much as I would love to drop the hammer on TSLA. I also know that companies that rely on huge government subsidies tend to always obtain huge government subsidies long after they are not needed. In many cases, long after the technology is proved impractical. Example A…Ethanol.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    PSA (jj Edition):

    Replace ! with letter i in above link….

  64. chicagofinance says:

    Elon Musk is this cycle’s Bernie Madoff…….total scumbag…

  65. chicagofinance says:

    absolutely not…..Jobs was iconic….this guy is a crook…

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    April 4, 2017 at 3:29 pm
    he’s the new Steve Jobs, even if he’s never posted a profit.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    The merger with Solar City is absolutely criminal…..

  67. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Solar City is criminal all on their own. So are pretty much all of those energy pariahs who won’t live you alone 24 hours a day.

  68. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    By the way. Does anyone know why the Do Not Call registry is completely ineffective? It starts with “L” and rhymes with hobbyist.

  69. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    absolutely not…..Jobs was iconic….this guy is a crook…

    That was my point. He’s got all the reputation that Steve Jobs did without any of the accomplishments.

  70. jcer says:

    Schluter is good stuff, but needs to be done properly to be effective, if you do not install correctly it will fail(this is more in reference to kerdi membrane, in this case the seams, kerdi membrane was for going over drywall–so not too much room for leaks, one blip in a seam and the job was kaput). It is cheaper and more error proof to do cement board, redguard(3 coats, with fibre mesh tape in the corners), and latex modified thinset. Kerdi board is a new product, it looks good and will save a bit of time and labor but with Schluter’s products you must follow the instructions 110%, cement board and redguard can be done by even the sloppiest of carpenters.

  71. 3b says:

    Ex pat pumps will be around to set you straight.

  72. SteamTurd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    If I was that concerned about water leaking into great room. I would just put one of those old fashioned pans under the floor with a pipe to drain. Had that in my multi bathroom upstairs. Shouldn’t have removed it during a bathroom renovation a few years back.

Comments are closed.