It’s a good time to sell, but don’t.

From HousingWire:

Capital Economics: A seller’s market won’t cure inventory shortages

It’s finally a seller’s market, but according to a new Capital Economics report, the increased selling sentiment doesn’t guarantee a boost in much-needed housing inventory.

Fannie Mae’s most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index reported that the net share of those saying it’s a good time to sell surpassed those saying it’s a good time to buy. This has only occurred twice in the survey’s history.

Unfortunately, Capital Economics explained that past rises in selling sentiment have not been accompanied by a significant rise in actual listings. And paired with the fact that the number of vacant homes that are being held off the market is rising, the report expects little chance for an improvement in inventory levels this year.

While selling sentiment is at its highest level in seven years, the change shouldn’t come as a shock.

Capital Economic attributed the change to multitude of factors, specifically pointing out the significant rise in home prices.

The increase in selling sentiment, however, doesn’t translate to actual home listings, yet. The chart below compares selling sentiment to number of existing homes listed for sale.

According to the report, a part of the reason is that since home prices are expected to continue to appreciate, households may expect selling conditions to continue to improve, causing them the wait to sell.

Then, beyond selling sentiment, there’s the fact that there is a very high number of vacant homes being held off the market. These homes are being held off the market for a similar reason since owners also expect increased capital gains.

Capital Economics does predict that this will change eventually though, as higher interest rates and lower house price expectations will eventually lead to more of those homes coming onto the market. But this probably won’t happen this year.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

49 Responses to It’s a good time to sell, but don’t.

  1. Juice Box says:


  2. grim says:

    Long Island Hot? From LI Business News:

    LI home prices climb in May

    Along with an increase in the number of pending Long Island homes sales last month, home prices rose sharply as compared with a year ago.

    The median price of pending home sales in Nassau last month was $505,000, up 9.8 percent from the $460,000 median price in May 2016, according to numbers from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island.

    In Suffolk, the median price of pending home sales was $356,000 in May, a 3.2 percent increase from the $345,000 median price of a year ago.

    The number of Long Island homes contracted for sale spiked in May as compared with a year ago.

    The number of homes contracted for sale last month in Nassau and Suffolk counties rose 7.4 percent, jumping from 3,080 pending sales in May 2016 to 3,299 pending sales in May 2017.

    Pending sales in Nassau rebounded after five straight months of year-over-year declines. The number of homes contracted for sale in Nassau rose 8.6 percent, going from 1,366 pending sales in May 2016 to 1,476 pending sales last month.

  3. D-FENS says:

    School funding deal struck between Prieto and Sweeney. $100 million more in funding. NJEA still not happy…which must mean good news for property tax payers…maybe more money going to exurban and suburban taxpayers?

  4. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Futures not looking so hot on the FANG stocks.

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I agree with half of this statement;-)

    It’s a good time to sell, but don’t.

  6. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I have simple plan to improve Abbot District schools and the Democrats should support this solution because it integrates wonderfully with their platform.

    Pay women and girls who live in Abbot Districts $5,000 for every abortion they have.

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW decades of data proves this plan would work:

  8. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Abolishing Christianity in Abbot Districts would also help. Dems should like that one too.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Long term investments……I say buy the discount.

    Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:
    June 15, 2017 at 8:09 am
    Futures not looking so hot on the FANG stocks

  10. D-FENS says:

    FANG Stocks are big…but how do they grow from here?

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The big tech companies in this country outside of amazon and alphabet are pretty damn cheap. And lots of people smarter than me think Amazon basically runs the world in the next decade plus, so probably more room to run there too.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Kostin said he expects a modest growth environment during the rest of this year. And he predicted Trump’s tax reform and infrastructure spending plans will likely be pushed out to 2018.

    Counterintuitively, the strategist said if economic growth does improve, it will be negative for technology growth stocks.

    “The big issue would be if you have economic growth accelerate, because in an economic acceleration environment, you want to be more value, more cyclicals as opposed to secular growth,” he said.

    Kostin’s investing playbook is similar to billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller’s classic investment strategy of buying high-flying growth stocks during low growth economic environments.”

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “There’s 330,000 people that work for GE and none of them had a productive day yesterday, none of them had a completely productive day. So my own belief is that when it comes to digital tools and things like that, that first part of the revolution, is going to be to make your existing workforce productive,” Immelt said during a talk at the Viva Tech conference in Paris.

    “I think this notion that we are all going to be in a room full of robots in five years … and that everything is going to be automated, it’s just BS. It’s not the way the world is going to work.”

  14. Walking bye says:

    Interesting how Faang is the new one percent. Those 5 stocks make the majority of sp500 movement. Which is a lot of retirement money banking on 5 stocks. Pull out those five stocks and folks would have lost quite a bit in there vanguard accounts this year. Kind of reminds me of how everything seems fine in NJ but dig a little beneath the surface and it’s a mess

  15. grim says:

    What the hell is FANG?

    Netflix? Why? Netflix is dead already.

    Or is it because the alternative, FAAG (Amazon+Apple) – just doesn’t roll off the tongue as well?

    For years the acronym was GAFA, when did that change?

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How about the nifty fifty?

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Putin offering political asylum to…wait for it…Comey.

  18. grim says:

    Morris County Crew – c’mon out to Restaurant Serenade in Chatham tonight from 5-9 – Silk City Whiskey Night.

    Whiskey tasting flights – Bourbon and our two debut whiskies, Corn and Oat.

    As well as a menu of signature cocktails.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think this is a reflection of income inequality. Advanced stages of capitalism, unless corrected, produce results like this. Pretty much monopolizes the market into a few big players. The “Fang” are the future of the economy, they control all aspects of tech. Any new worthy tech company that is a threat is cannibalized by these big boys. If you are not invested in these companies for the long term, you are not reading the writing on the wall. Heading into a new economic era, and these companies are the drivers….no doubt about it. Put it this way, what each of these companies are known for today, will be totally different in 10 years. For example, Facebook will no longer even be associated with the “Facebook” social media platform it is associated with today. They will evolve into a totally different animal. So yes, you have to be insane to not ride this tech wave changing our economy and lives.

    Walking bye says:
    June 15, 2017 at 11:04 am
    Interesting how Faang is the new one percent. Those 5 stocks make the majority of sp500 movement. Which is a lot of retirement money banking on 5 stocks. Pull out those five stocks and folks would have lost quite a bit in there vanguard accounts this year. Kind of reminds me of how everything seems fine in NJ but dig a little beneath the surface and it’s a mess

  20. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    grim – Any tastings at the end of July?

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Remember the good times when the Pumpkin Herpes outbreak was in remission? Now it’s Pumpkin Blisters and Pumpkin Pus everywhere again.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Netflix is going into producing their own content, just like Amazon. Even Hollywood is not safe from these tech giants taking it over. They are taking over everything.

  23. Walking bye says:

    Sorry pumpkin. I feel sometimes you take too much crap from some. I’m sure even you had to laugh at ex pats comment above.

  24. Nomad says:

    Steam, I just checked my NJT app and 7-10 to 9-1 is going to suck but sounds like the maintenance will make things better. You always seem in the loop on this stuff so what is your take? Also, it the port authority bus terminal more, less or equally as disgusting as Penn?

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat has been training me to grow thicker skin. Doing a hell of a job. The old pumpkin would lose it and fire back. Now I understand that this is his guilty pleasure, so I let him have his fun. I still will lose it here and there if I’m having a bad day, but he has trained me well.

    Walking bye says:
    June 15, 2017 at 1:29 pm
    Sorry pumpkin. I feel sometimes you take too much crap from some. I’m sure even you had to laugh at ex pats comment above.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I still can’t believe how on pt my calls were years ago on this blog, and how not one individual has acknowledged it. I called the f’en year people! Took so much heat for those calls too when I originally made them since the calls were pretty outlandish at the time. I was actually questioning my intelligence at one point since the criticism was so strong.

    The demographic spending patterns are only going to get stronger going into the next decade. So let’s now see if my call for the roaring 20’s part two comes through. So far, it looks like it will, barring any crazy wars, or disasters of that nature.

  27. Grab them by the puzzy says:


    “@NBCNews has learned the president of the United States is now
    under criminal investigation,”

    @LesterHoltNBC reports on

  28. Grab them by the puzzy says:


    VP Pence hires outside counsel “to assist him in responding to inquiries” about Russia investigation, office says.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “You may have heard the assertion that 97 percent of climate scientists believe that the earth’s climate is warming and human activity is the most likely cause. I made it in a column a couple of months ago, and learned that it drives some people crazy.

    The main problem they seem to have with it is described right there in the abstract of the 2013 Environmental Research Letters paper from which it is derived. Cognitive scientist and skeptic-of-climate-skeptics John Cook — then of the University of Queensland in Australia, now of George Mason University in Virginia — and eight co-authors 1 searched the Web of Science database using the terms “global warming” and “global climate change,” then examined the abstracts of the 11,944 peer-reviewed papers they found to determine what position they took on “anthropogenic global warming” (AGW for short).

    We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

    When they counted by authors instead of papers, it was actually 98.4 percent. But it’s the 97 percent that stuck, thanks in part to a publicity boost from then-President Barack Obama:

    But hey, what about that 66.4 percent of papers that didn’t express an opinion? (This is the part that drives some people crazy.) Cook and his co-authors acknowledged that it’s a “large proportion.” They also offered a not-unreasonable explanation for it:

    This result is expected in consensus situations where scientists ‘…generally focus their discussions on questions that are still disputed or unanswered rather than on matters about which everyone agrees’ (Oreskes 2007, p 72). This explanation is also consistent with a description of consensus as a ‘spiral trajectory’ in which ‘initially intense contestation generates rapid settlement and induces a spiral of new questions’ (Shwed and Bearman 2010); the fundamental science of AGW is no longer controversial among the publishing science community and the remaining debate in the field has moved to other topics.

    Still, one cannot know for sure what the authors of those 66.4 percent of papers were thinking. To their credit, Cook and Co. did try to find out, sending emails to 8,547 authors asking them to self-rate their papers as endorsing or rejecting anthropogenic global warming or taking no stand on it. They got 1,200 responses, and among the 2,242 papers thus rated, a little more than half of those previously classified as “no position” were judged by their authors to endorse AGW. A few were also reclassified as rejecting the consensus, bringing the overall percentages to 62.7 percent of papers endorsing the consensus, 1.8 percent rejecting it and 35.5 percent with no position.

    That’s 97.2 percent to 2.8 percent if you throw out the no-position papers. Let’s say those no-position papers still bother you, though. You could look at other research, including surveys in which scientists are simply asked directly which side they’re on. University of Sussex economist Richard Tol did that in a 2016 critique of the Cook research, citing a range of results from 35 percent of scientists endorsing the global warming consensus to 100 percent (although most of the studies he listed came out above 85 percent). 2 But when Cook and another group of co-authors 3 sifted through the study results to focus on the views of active climate scientists (as opposed to scientists in other fields and people with scientific credentials who weren’t doing research), they concluded that AGW commanded a consensus of 90 percent to 100 percent.”

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know, when the majority of scientists all agree, maybe we should listen? I mean, they can be wrong, but what are the odds?

  31. The whitest guy says:

    Ask Socrates!

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I just think the common sense approach is what happens if everyone starts to use coal again? And that is the position you are taking if you think the green revolution is some made up conspiracy to get businesses to pay more. It’s just not true

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think it’s common sense that we will be accelerating our extinction if the entire human population turns to wood, oil, and coal for our energy.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who is protecting their big money pile that becomes worthless if we turn to renewable sources? You have been played.

    That’s exactly what the Koch brothers did. Ruined the climate movement by dirtying the information by infiltrating conservative circles with pure propaganda and it’s insane how well it has worked

  35. Fabius Maximus says:

    The Irony in this Administration is amazing. Looks like Mikey is scrambling for the high ground.

    Pence considered several candidates to provide legal counsel and selected Cullen earlier this week. The Washington Post was the first to report the news.

    Cullen served as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia under President George H.W. Bush and later as Virginia’s attorney general. He also served as former Sen. Paul Trible’s special counsel during the Iran-Contra affair and worked on the staff of former Rep. M. Caldwell Butler during the Watergate investigation.

  36. The whitest guy says:


  37. Fabius Maximus says:

    Here’s one for the lawyers on the board. Your posts can come back to bite you.

    Unfortunately this guy will get nominated on a party line vote.

    I think this was the worst part.

    Later in the hearing, however, Bush revealed that he either does not believe that all divisive decisions are tragic, or that he has a very poor command of American history.
    “Wouldn’t you characterize Brown v. Board of Education,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) asked Bush, as “a case that divided our country?” In response, Bush first pled ignorance, then gave an historically-inaccurate answer.
    “I wasn’t alive at the time of Brown,” Bush said. “But I don’t think it did.”

  38. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Gotta keep that lobbyist money coming in.

  39. Fabius Maximus says:
  40. D-FENS says:

    Donald Trump has to be taken out before he ruins our country.
    1/23/17, 11:50AM

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “For further evidence of the uneven recovery among U.S. housing markets, how’s this: In the 10 most expensive U.S. metropolitan areas, median home values have increased by 63 percent since 2000, after adjusting for inflation. In the 10 cheapest metros, median values rose by just 3.6 percent.

    That finding, and the others illustrated by the charts below, comes from the State of the Nation’s Housing, an annual report published Friday by Harvard University’s Joint Center For Housing Studies. While home prices have increased sharply in expensive coastal cities, plenty of urban centers are lagging behind. Home prices in 3 out of 5 metropolitan areas remain below their pre-recession peak, and home prices in low-income neighborhoods are faring even worse.”

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Keep focusing on making a quick buck at the expense of the future. Absolutely brilliant!

    “At $31 billion, GE’s pension shortfall is the biggest among S&P 500 companies and 50 percent greater than any other corporation in the U.S. It’s a deficit that has swelled in recent years as Immelt spent more than $45 billion on share buybacks to win over Wall Street and pacify activists like Nelson Peltz.

    Part of it has to do with the paltry returns that have plagued pensions across corporate America as ultra-low interest rates prevailed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. But perhaps more importantly, GE’s dilemma underscores deeper concerns about modern capitalism’s all-consuming focus on immediate results, which some suggest is short-sighted and could ultimately leave everyone — including shareholders themselves — worse off.”

  43. Grab them by the Covfefe says:


    Trump chooses inexperienced woman who planned his son Eric’s wedding
    to run N.Y. federal housing programs

  44. Grab them by the Covfefe says:

    immelt has made over $600 million at GE, so who cares about pensions

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 16, 2017 at 8:15 am
    Keep focusing on making a quick buck at the expense of the future. Absolutely brilliant!

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