Noticing some extra room these days?

From the Star Ledger:

Worry as Census says N.J.’s population shrank for the first time in years

New Jersey may have lost population for the first time in a decade, new data shows, potentially imperiling economic growth and the number of Congressional seats it holds in the coming years.

New estimates from the American Community Survey suggest New Jersey lost about 13,000 people from 2015 to 2016, which would reverse several years of slow growth since the state was decimated by the housing crisis in the mid-to-late-2000s.

Experts were wary of making too much of the figure, noting that it was an estimate and only a slight decrease, but said it points to a broader trend — New Jersey isn’t growing.

“When you have strong population growth, like in Texas for example, those new people need places to live, places to shop. All of that benefits jobs, benefits the economy,” said James Hughes, a professor at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “If you don’t have that, you’re certainly going to have limited economic growth.”

Analysis by NJ Advance Media shows about 226,000 people moved out of the state between 2015 and 2016, about 30,000 less than the total who moved to the Garden States from within the country and abroad.

With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey’s growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. But the number of people leaving keeps growing, stagnating the state’s population on the cusp of nine million.

“My gut says that much of the stagnation we continue to see is driven by a combination of factors,” said Jon Whiten, Vice President of New Jersey Policy Perspective. “Among them would certainly be the broad trend away from sprawl and unchecked suburban development, which was New Jersey’s stock in trade for some time.”

Data shows that trend continued in 2016, while Atlantic County and rural counties in South Jersey also struggled with population retention.

“For a long time, we had a lot of automobile-centric growth. Rail now determines ecomic opportunity. That’s a fundamental change,” Hughes said.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

63 Responses to Noticing some extra room these days?

  1. grim says:

    Bend over NJ, they are coming for you. If we get the trifecta, NJ is dead.

    From Bloomberg:

    Here’s How Tax Reform Could Squeeze the Middle Class

    Here’s what we know about the details of the tax reform plan: almost nothing.

    Powerful lawmakers are promising at least a framework for the overhaul by the end of the month. The broad goals are lower rates for corporations and individuals, a simpler tax code with fewer brackets, and the elimination of the estate tax and the alternative-minimum tax.

    Sound good? Beware.

    If you save for retirement or itemize your tax deductions, you could end up paying thousands of dollars more after tax reform than you do now. To help pay for promised cuts, President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are trying to raise revenue elsewhere.

    And the best place to get this money may be the millions of Americans who use deductions and other such strategies to lower their tax bills.

    Upper-middle-class taxpayers in particular could face a triple whammy. On the table are limits on—or even the elimination of—three of their favorite tax perks: deductions for mortgage interest and for state and local taxes and the ability to make pre-tax 401(k) retirement contributions.

  2. grim says:

    On the bright side, maybe we’ll see some progress on reducing property taxes after we lose the deduction.

  3. JJ fanboy says:

    226,000 people moved out of New Jersey in a year? They must be losers who can’t afford a house on a highway.

    I wonder what the median income of those households that left are. I am guessing they are mostly employees with a median household income in the 90-100k range. Which is why New Jersey median income is still lower than it was 10 years ago. The brazilification of jersey continues.

  4. ex-new jersey says:

    Why would anyone ever leave New Jersey?

  5. Not Grimsky says:

    Add to it the fore mentioned issues here:

    – The new low income housing rules/developers suing to enforce it and then build it.
    – Pension, property taxes and forced regionalization.
    – No longer new (mostly illegal) immigrants willing to pay $100 a week for an illegally converted room/work under the minimum wage and overall consume and at same time provide cheap labor.
    – A lot of old boomers that can’t afford to maintain their big homesteads/ a lot of poor boomers that will need to be cared for.

    Things are definitely going to be different around here.

  6. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Luckily Pumps enjoys his big mortgage and high taxes. He knows it is the cost of living in a privileged society 5 miles away from an unprivileged society.

  7. D-FENS says:

    If they’re lowering the rate, and tripling the standard deduction…this softens or even eliminates the pain. Deduction of mortgage interest is not on the chopping block either.
    I think it’s still good for families who own homes and take home less than $200k.

  8. D-FENS says:

    Removal of federal deductions for property taxes and state taxes removes some of the incentive for local governments to raise these local taxes and fees in the first place.

  9. Yo! says:

    NJ residents in the hundreds of thousands pay billions of income tax to New York State. Why aren’t NJ politicians demanding a better deal? Most interstate commuters pay income tax to the state where they live. But not in NJ.

  10. Troll Feeder says:

    Yo! I have a simple solution for you: get off the train in Newark or JC.

  11. JJ fanboy says:

    Vote with your feet

  12. Troll Feeder says:

    I wonder what the ratio is Commute from NJ to NYC:Commute from NYC to NJ?

    Seems like that must factor into the logic. 100:1? 1000:1?

  13. leftwing says:

    Interested in data on median incomes. Have to look it up later. Anyone have a direct to NJ data throw a link, appreciated.

    To the above, I never understand the focus (regionally or even for a nation) on gross GDP growth. How does pumping in a ton of lower than median earners improve the quality of life of the existing population? Seems to me the focus ought to be on per capita GDP/median earnings.

    That measure should be most important to the current population. Do I really want my town/region/state/nation getting all clogged up with relatively unproductive people lowering my day-to-day standard of living just so my lawn can be groomed for $25 cheaper per week and I can say ‘our total economy grew last year’?

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    Wasn’t it just this past week that there was a discussion here on how the population in NJ was increasing? What about all these supposed new multi dwellings and the corporate parks being converted? I’m not following here?

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Primarily car thieves commute to NJ from NY. They take the bus from the Bronx to one of the Bergen County malls on Route 4, pick out their new ride and drive home.

    I wonder what the ratio is Commute from NJ to NYC:Commute from NYC to NJ?

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Sometimes they buy new baseball hats at the mall first.

  17. JJ fanboy says:

    Fast Eddie

    I think that discussion was the places where people have to commute 2 hours to get to NYC are losing population while the the towns with train stations are building multi family houses and condos/attached houses.

    I could be wrong. I am a dum dum in Texas who can’t afford a house on a highway in jersey.

    And my couch is leather , not crushed valor.

  18. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Luckily Pumps enjoys his big mortgage and high taxes. He knows it is the cost of living in a privileged society 5 miles away from an unprivileged society.

    You got it all wrong. The big mortgage is how you gain wealth.

  19. 3b says:

    Fast who knows perhaps the decline in the population in the southern counties has been offset by an increase in north Jersey but still not enough to stem an overall population decline? I am still wondering over New suburbs and old suburbs. In one article millennial want the new eco friendly walking drone port suburbs. In another article they are buying big suv s to tool around the old suburbs?

  20. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BRT – I stand corrected. Not losing money equals making money and the money you pay in property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and mortgage payments doesn’t count.

    You got it all wrong. The big mortgage is how you gain wealth.

  21. D-FENS says:

    Interesting laws on the books regarding Solar…Hurricane Irma shined a light on it in Florida…

    FPL’s lobbying wing has fought hard against letting Floridians power their own homes with solar panels. Thanks to power-company rules, it’s impossible across Florida to simply buy a solar panel and power your individual home with it. You are instead legally mandated to connect your panels to your local electric grid.

    More egregious, FPL mandates that if the power goes out, your solar-power system must power down along with the rest of the grid, robbing potentially needy people of power during major outages.

    “Renewable generator systems connected to the grid without batteries are not a standby power source during an FPL outage,” the company’s solar-connection rules state. “The system must shut down when FPL’s grid shuts down in order to prevent dangerous back feed on FPL’s grid. This is required to protect FPL employees who may be working on the grid.”

    Astoundingly, state rules also mandate that solar customers include a switch that cleanly disconnects their panels from FPL’s system while keeping the rest of a home’s power lines connected. But during a disaster like the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, FPL customers aren’t allowed to simply flip that switch and keep their panels going. (But FPL is, however, allowed to disconnect your panels from the grid without warning you. The company can even put a padlock on it.)

  22. grim says:

    Not only is back feed dangerous for linemen, it doesn’t work as there is no sine carrier to sync with. The way grid-tie systems work is that they need to synchronize their alternating current to be perfectly aligned with the grid. How does this work when there is no “grid” to tie to? Two out of phase feeds into the same grid, and it all goes POOF and lets out the magic black smoke.

    The reason grid-tie is installed is it’s cheap and it works, it also doesn’t require installing transfer switches and huge arrays of batteries.

    Solar doesn’t work as a “real-time” source of power. All it takes is a cloud, or a microwave, or both at the same time, and the draw exceeds the capacity, and it shuts down.

    The solar cells on the roof of a house aren’t sufficient to power that house, that was never the point of rooftop solar. Rooftop solar isn’t about creating a distributed resilient grid either.

  23. D-FENS says:

    Makes sense. Some krappy reporting there then.

  24. Juice Box says:

    Tesla Powerwall or equivalent would be needed for Solar to work in a power outage.

    There is one company installing them in Florida.

    Natural gas powered GENRAC type generator is cheaper and is still better….

  25. leftwing says:

    “BRT – I stand corrected. Not losing money equals making money and the money you pay in property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and mortgage payments doesn’t count.

    You got it all wrong. The big mortgage is how you gain wealth.”

    C’mon guys get it right. High taxes are how you gain wealth. Sheesh, haven’t you learned anything?

  26. grim says:

    Batteries in houses is Elon’s dumbest idea. It makes no sense. Especially as a retrofit.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    The only upside to steady prices and ever-increasing property taxes is that it keeps out the riff-raff. I found an opening, finally landed digs to my approval at a price that didn’t make me gag so, f.uck it! Let it ride.

  28. Walking bye says:

    For those of us stuck with the AMT, getting rid of the mortgage deduction etc would not be so bad. I have a feeling most people don’t even realize they are pay an AMT and not getting all the deductions in their shoebox they labored so hard putting together for their accountant.

  29. Phoenix says:

    Germany has been very sucessful with a distributed grid system, one that increasing all of the time.
    It can be done. In America it’s more about money and lobbyists.

    “Rooftop solar isn’t about creating a distributed resilient grid either.”

  30. grim says:

    Cool, we can’t even fix a hundred year old railroad bridge in the US, good luck with that.

  31. Phoenix says:

    It’s a choice. We choose to have 4000 sq ft homes with generators, and smaller homes without them. It’s the haves vs the have-nots. When all hell breaks loose the “haves” think they will have enough ammunition to protect themselves from the “have-nots.”
    This is a calculated decision. It will drastically change the way America is compared to today.
    Any disruption to the flow of fossil fuel will send this country into a tizzy-which is why we maintain a fleet of 11 aircraft carriers to dominate and appease our appetite for oil. Same oil we are trying to choke off from N. Korea- we know it is their lifeblood too.

    Should be interesting to see what happens when we sanction a country so much that they have nothing left to lose but attempt to send nuclear material into the one choking them around the neck. Personally if it were not for people younger than me ( who I believe deserve to have a clean world to live in) I could not care less at all.

  32. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Batteries in houses is Elon’s dumbest idea. It makes no sense. Especially as a retrofit.

    I disagree. I think colonizing Mars is his dumbest idea.

  33. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    My neighbor had Tesla come in to give him a quote on the roof. It came in 25k higher than the next highest…at 64k. Then, the guy wanted him to buy a car as well.

  34. grim says:

    Tesla roof isn’t bad … if you compare to slate, tile, or metal.

    Compared to shingles, it’s astronomical. I think my house would cost $70,000 to do both sides (big ranch, lots of squares).

  35. Phoenix says:

    What would the price be if we eliminated the tariff on Chinese solar panels? I can buy truckloads of things from China, why choose to tariff solar panels of all things?

    With roots in a protracted trade war between the United States and China that started in 2011, the dispute centers on crystalline silicon cells, the major electricity-producing components, as well as the modules, or panels, into which they are assembled.

  36. grim says:

    You can buy truckloads of them today.

    They pull them off of foreclosed houses, “destroy” them, then load trucks up and drive to the northeast to resell them in parking lot deals.

  37. A Home Buyer says:


    Germany pays three times the cost, on average, for their electricity as a result of their policies.

    I world wager our power industry could easily transform itself if it became mandated by law to charge its customers triple what they can provide their services for, and then use the extra 200% revenue towards capital improvements.

    The sheer number of (un) intended consequences to numerous industries would be mind boggling.

    Not to mention the impact on the house hold budget itself.

  38. grim says:

    If you wanted to run a house on solar, you would be an idiot to convert DC to AC back to DC to AC and back to DC again. Every conversion increases cost and losses. Think my example is silly?

    Solar (DC) – Inverter (AC) – Battery (DC) – Inverter (AC) – LED Bulb (DC)

    Why not just start wiring lighting with 24v and use only low voltage LED?

    Solar (DC) – Battery (DC) – LED (DC)


  39. grim says:

    Take it a step further – eliminate wall warts and power supplies and just have everything else run off the 24v system – laptops computers chargers – all become significantly more simple and efficient.

  40. Iamrooftog (formerly hoodafa) says:

    Kushner Cos. Acquires New Jersey Apartment Complex for $190 Million

    Kushner Cos., the real estate firm owned by Jared Kushner’s family, repurchased an apartment complex in Central New Jersey that it sold 11 years ago.

    The 1,032-unit Quail Ridge Apartments was sold by Angelo Gordon & Co. for $190 million, Kushner Cos. said Monday in a statement. The 52-acre Plainsboro property, near Princeton, was among buildings it sold in 2007 to help finance a $1.8 billion purchase of a Manhattan office tower. The deal was completed Sept. 14.

    More at:

  41. grim says:

    They liked it so much they bought it back?

  42. D-FENS says:

    For honest (non fanboy) reporting on Tesla…follow this guy:

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Wow. Facebook colluded with Russia, selling them $100,000 worth of ads to keep Hillary out of the White House. That’s a pretty efficient overthrow of Clinton’s $2 billion war chest.

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Edison is rolling over in his grave saying, “I told you so!”

    Why not just start wiring lighting with 24v and use only low voltage LED?

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you can find beneath your property a water current (as in underground stream), is there anything that prevents your from digging a whole and dropping an aqua turbine in and using it to generate electricity?

  46. JJ fanboy says:


    Why not use geothermal for your heating and cooling. It would pay for itself in 5-10 years, and some hipster would probably be willing to shell out more $ to boast about his green home.

  47. leftwing says:

    Can’t find what Kuschner sold it for originally, anyone know?

    Quick back of the envelope says around $234 per ft2. What are rents down there, sounds aggressive. A thousand units on 52 acres, are they looking at a further buildout?

  48. leftwing says:

    Interesting, and intersects with a recent experience…..

    So I have been spending some meaningful time not at my home address but nearby. Less than a mile away. Same zip. Same town. Very likely same cell tower. Nearly assured so.

    Anyway I’m more than accustomed now to my phone asking me ‘how would you rate [fill in the blank] restaurant’ as I’m sitting at a table there. I get geolocation and marketing. But…..

    My phone is banging on me now ‘did you move’. ‘Would you like to update your home address’.

    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised but it seems the algorithm is not just tracking you real time, but written in such a way to analyze your cumulative movements at least against once set of criteria, ie. where you may actually live.

    Interesting. Ran into an old friend yesterday under a somewhat burdensome support agreement that he re-opened at the beginning of the year. Seeking relief based on proving his ex- is cohabitating which terminates the support. Wonder how a civil subpoena holds up at Google maps? Not only is the data there, but it is already in form and format sought, neatly analyzed.

    Any other takers for your movement history, nicely sorted and packaged? Bids?

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    JJf – thanks for the suggestion, I like geothermal, but that wasn’t behind my question. I was wondering if you could grab enough electricity to sell it back to the grid and if there was anything that would prevent you from doing so. Imagine if you found the right property where you could do solar and water current and generate a decent amount of electricity back to sell back to the grid. Better yet if you could just put up a little shack there and not tip anyone off that it was a money maker.


    Why not use geothermal for your heating and cooling. It would pay for itself in 5-10 years, and some hipster would probably be willing to shell out more $ to boast about his green home.

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How about a rent-by-the-hour motel that is also in the business of selling electricity?

  51. Phoenix says:

    Ex pat,
    Things may have changed but the last time when I looked into solar it was like this-they wanted 1 year data on usage. This is how you would calculate the amount of panels to purchase. The whole idea is to make what you use as close as possible. Any extra you were paid a pittance for. They would not pay you the amount they charge you for the same amount of electricity so it would not be prudent to install more than your usage/future usage.
    Things could be different now, or maybe I don’t remember exactly, but I believe this is the story at the time.

  52. Phoenix says:

    These would be great for your rent-by-the-hour motel.

    Of course you would have to allow for some down time between check-ins.

    Torch™ Portable UV Disinfection

    Torch Portable UV Disinfection towers kill 99% of microorganisms and is ideal for use in spaces requiring UV disinfection of hazardous and toxic viruses. Remote control feature and innovative design maximize operator safety and room disinfection.

    Provides 99% reduction of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in 10 seconds and Clostridium difficile in 1 minute at 10 feet
    Open center for 360-degree radiation of 8 UVC bulbs improves overall room coverage

    Applications: laboratory, research, healthcare, pharmaceutical and manufacturing
    Optional UV Sensor Module monitors and documents UVC dosage and disinfection process
    Option: Torch UV Sensor Module displays and logs dosage and archive data
    Includes: Four motion sensors (built-in) and remote starter; heavy-duty protective cover

    Monitors UVC dosage and documents UV disinfection process
    Stores data: room number, time, date and accumulated dosage

    Watch the video to see how the Torch works:
    Roll the Torch into the room; place optional Sensor Module in front of the Torch unit
    Plug power cord into Torch and wall outlet
    Set timer to desired duration of exposure and connect electrical cable to sensor
    Position sensor module outside room
    Plug sensor module, connect electrical cable and insert USB data stick
    Enter room number; press start logging and start button on remote control
    User has one minute to leave room and close the door when start button is pressed
    Close the door and let the Torch kill exposed microorganisms and viruses in the room

    The TORCH UV Disinfection system destroys over 99% of bacterial organisms in 15 minutes by delivering high-intensity narrow-band UVC light. Bulbs positioned at a 4-degree angle provide a complete 360° UVC coverage.
    Microorganism Distance Time (min) Percent Reduction
    Enterococcus faecium 10 feet 15 minutes >99%
    Psuedomonas aeruginosa 10 feet 15 minutes >99%
    Bacillus atrophaeus spores 10 feet 30 minutes >99.9%
    Salmonella typhimurium 10 feet 15 minutes >99%

  53. grim says:

    Most new planes have UV disinfection lighting built in now. It’s pretty neat, teeny tiny little arc lamps embedded so that they aren’t in your direct line of sight.

  54. A Home Buyer says:

    Expat –

    NJAC Title 14.

    Roughly speaking, the New Jersey Administrative Code setup rules for how Non-EDCs (non-utility) sources can connect. Its a lengthy mess for those not familiar with the terms or navigating it, but it generally breaks up the systems into categories based on the kW / MW produced and the type of review you need to perform with the utility.

    For Radial line connections which are common in rural / suburb areas, the total on the radial line cannot exceed 10-15% of the total line capacity. That includes you… and everyone else on the radial power line. If your neighbor brings the percentage of non-EDC generation up to 15 % before you, you will not be allowed to add ANYTHING to your land (solar, geothermal, etc.) that connects back to the Radial line.

    For spot networks which are more common in cities, your total contribution cannot exceed 5% of the spot network load.

    In all systems, the utility may also deny you if your short circuit contribution pushes the system fault current above the utilities equipment ratings.

    Another restriction that would impact a house is that you cannot exceed the power lines capacity that feed your house. If you have a 200A service, you can only export a portion of that (say 80% depending on codes and calcs and the utility) back to the grid without tripping your main or burning up cables.

    So generally speaking, yes, there are restrictions on power production and the NJAC is only the minimum for establishing a uniform process.

    Also keep in mind, there are master planning organizations like the PJM (for NJ/NY) that control how any large scale producer of power connects to the grid. The organize who is producing when such that the major generators are scheduled correctly for uptime / outages and that enough power is always available in the grid. Missing a scheduled production date can result in massive losses (100+K per day plus the lost revenue itself).

    You mentioned hydro too, which I have no technical experience with but I know the DEP gets really upset if you adjust or alter the flow of waterways. Most likely have a process to go through with them.

  55. Phoenix says:

    To avoid the DEP issue over waterway disruption, you could try these..

  56. Yo! says:

    Leftwing, Kushners sold Quail Ridge sold in 2011 for $122 million. Few updates to the units since then. Popular game plan for apartment buyers today is buy tired apartment complexes, renovate them, then raise the rents. This is probably the Kushner game plan. Plainsboro hasn’t approved new apartment construction since 1984 and probably won’t let Kushners add more units to the site.

  57. Libturd sporting Tiger Wood says:

    I thought the Kushner’s were bankrupt :P

  58. Juice Box says:

    That isn’t correct, Quail Ridge was sold in 2007 as part of a 16,500 unit sale to AIG and Mitchell Morgan. A near Peak sale for about 1.8 billion, brokered by GS. Kushner then plowed that back into 666 Park a loser so far, Kushner was what 25-26 at the time and Daddy was where thanks to Gov Christie?

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    AHB – I appreciate that clarification. I was talking in general terms (by bad, I didn’t specify). I don’t know why anyone would attempt to create a money-making venture in NJ, unless it was highly dodgy, that is.

    A Home Buyer says:
    September 18, 2017 at 5:01 pm
    Expat –

    NJAC Title 14.

    Roughly speaking, the New Jersey Administrative Code setup rules for how Non-EDCs (non-utility) sources can connect.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, I thought I disclosed that I sold all of my Utilities a couple weeks ago, but I couldn’t find my post. Anyway, I sold most of my REITs today. I think this is probably a head fake to higher interest rates, but I have to sell into it.

  61. Guomino says:

    Why would a smart person intentionally move to a state where they’d have to pay rents and RE taxes that are so much higher than in other states where they can get jobs? Politicians are making NJ unaffordable to most people.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good luck getting high pay jobs in cheap locations if you don’t know someone. Don’t you think everyone would leave if they could find good jobs in cheap locations.

    Guomino says:
    September 19, 2017 at 8:12 am
    Why would a smart person intentionally move to a state where they’d have to pay rents and RE taxes that are so much higher than in other states where they can get jobs? Politicians are making NJ unaffordable to most people.
    Leave a Reply

Comments are closed.