From the Morning Call:
Will tax cuts spur another New Jersey surge into the Lehigh Valley’s housing market?
As the 2008 housing crisis eased, Easton Realtor Clay Mitman saw New Jersey residents looking to relocate to the Lehigh Valley become an ever-increasing segment of his clientele, up to about 50 percent today.
He’s likely to meet many more, if a fresh analysis of the recently signed federal tax cut by Moody’s Analytics proves correct.
The report, issued last week, found that provisions in the law will cut into the value of single-family homes — and nowhere will the pain be felt more deeply than in high-tax New Jersey, home to seven of the 10 hardest-hit counties nationally under the bill.
Federal write-offs for property taxes and mortgage interest are being capped or curbed, making home ownership even more costly in the Garden State, eroding the value of those properties.
As a result the Lehigh Valley could see more New Jersey homeowners crossing the Delaware River for lower state and local taxes in eastern Pennsylvania.
Analysts stop short of using the term “surge,” but do think more home buyers from the Garden State will be looking at the Valley.
If those buyers decide they can add a tolerable amount of time to their commutes, the Lehigh Valley “becomes a pretty attractive alternative,” said Moody’s Analytics senior economist Adam Kamins.
Interstate 78 points west as it runs through four of New Jersey’s hardest-hit counties in the Moody’s analysis: Essex, Union, Somerset and Hunterdon.
The monthly mortgage payments New Jersey homeowners have made over the years, transferred over to the Lehigh Valley, could make mortgage payments in the future much more bearable, Mitman said. “People with $100,000 or $200,000 in equity from New Jersey have a lot more buying power,” he said.
…
The last big wave of New Jersey residents into the Lehigh Valley, according to Sean LaSalle, with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Fox & Roach Realtors and licensed in both states, came during a 2003-07 housing boom. Cheaper property taxes in Pennsylvania and lower gasoline prices, lessening the cost of a longer commute, boosted home sales here.“Then it really slowed off when we went into the housing recession,” said LaSalle, who said he splits his time equally between both states. “It picked up, but it’s not at the numbers it was back then.”
The drive from MIA/FLL to Key West is one of my favorites in all the US. Fly into Key West? No way.
I do.that drive every month. Cleanup from Irma along US 1 is complete. Stop at Robbie’s to.feed.the tarpon on the way down or.have a bite at the keys fisheries in Marathon. I live on stock island the next.island.over from key West. It is pretty much like.the old.key West. stop at the new Perry hotel.on shrimp rd for.a.drink.at.the marina beautiful view among the commercial.fishing and charter boats. We live next to the key West botanical gardens only frost.free garden in the US.
Robbie’s is a great place to rent a kayak and paddle through the mangroves too.
Splurge on the way down, spend a night or two at Cheeca Lodge.
We have a some places on stock island and sugarloaf.too. plenty of.guided tours. Danger charters in Key West is among the best they take.you out on a nice.sailboat.. You can do 1/2 snorkel and 1/2 kayak. We have hurricane hole those folks are.nice dona fun nature tour. You get to see.some.cool stuff lots of sand.sharks and maybe a manatee too. Ferry out to dry Tortugas National Park from key west. That requires a full day expensive but worth it.
We have a some places on stock island and sugarloaf.too. plenty of.guided tours. Danger charters in Key West is among the best they take.you out on a nice.sailboat.. You can do 1/2 snorkel and 1/2 kayak. We have hurricane hole those folks are.nice do a fun nature tour. You get to see.some.cool stuff lots of sand.sharks and maybe a manatee too. Ferry out to dry Tortugas National Park from key west. That requires a full day expensive but worth it.
In the mid 80’s I made that drive down to the Keys for the first time during a Spring break week. I was a couple years out of college, flew into FLL, a friend living in Fort Pierce picked me up at the airport and we headed down to Key West to hang out with girls he knew from college at UMD (my friend had dropped out and joined the Coast Guard).
Beautiful drive down and, believe it or not, back then, it was perfectly *legal* in Florida for car passengers to drink beer! What a great party state!
One of the most memorable things about being in Key West was it was the first time I had ever had Sushi. Our orders arrived just as I finished my first beer. As I began my meal and waited for the waitress to return with my next drink, I noticed the little mound of wasabi on the side of my order and figured it for guacamole. I ate all of it at once and had no beverage in front of me. I still love sushi, sashimi, and you almost can’t give me enough wasabi, but that was certainly a powerful introduction.
You guys convinced me. We will do the drive.
Some Spring Break History:
1970’s to early ’80’s – Fort Lauderdale was the place.
Mid to late ’80’s – Lauderdale got old and other parts of Florida (Daytona, Key West, etc.) inherited the mantel.
After that, I have no idea except it spread everywhere tropical and I *guess* (?) kids mostly flew?
Back in the day only about 50% of kids attending Spring Break flew.
During my college tenure I went 3 times, all via road. First, as one of four guys in a Toyota Corolla (with a roof rack that brought our mpg down so low that we should taken a bigger car). Next, as one of 8 guys in a Winnebago. Finally, with my girlfriend in her Mom’s 1978 Nova (I know, I know, that’s like bringing a sandwich to a smorgasbord)
And prior to my three Spring Break pilgrimages, I actually had the balls to drive my 1970 convertible Fiat Spider down to Florida for Winter break. My Spider was never reliable around NJ (FIAT = Fix It Again Tony), I can’t believe I was optimistic enough to think it would last to Miami and back, but it did.
Still a lot of spring breakers in Key West. Hang out at free smathers beach in the day and Duval street at night. Irish Kevin’s is a big draw. They must have money because it ain’t cheap.
I remember racing a guy in a Porsche 912 (a 911 with a Volkswagen engine, so I had a chance) down in Florida during that trip. All of a sudden a beautiful blond hitchhiker appeared in front of us on the shoulder of the highway. Sheer adolescent instinct took over and both of us (I didn’t know the other driver) hit the brakes and pulled over abruptly to now compete for more important stakes. She came over to my car first. Unfortunately I had my friend in the passenger seat and a bushel of oranges in the uninviting back seat that had zero legroom even without oranges. She did an about face and got into the sky blue 912.
Back in the days when Rutgers was $2600 per year all-in, including meals and dorm, you could do Spring Break in Florida for $130-$200 total. My financing was simple and calculated; I filed my Tax return for my Summer job as early in January as I could and, like clockwork, that magic refund check for $113-$150 would arrive the first week of March and our Spring Break was the second week.
When I graduated and went down to Key West after college, I felt like a rich man what with prepaid airfare and $300-$400 cash in my pocket (maybe even a credit card, I don’t remember). On the way down to Key West that time I got on the wrong plane at Newark. It was the first time I was actually early for a flight. I boarded my flight and there was some confusion when someone else had the same seat as me. The air waitress said that it frequently happens on “these overbooked Florida flights” and she would find me another seat, which she did. As we taxied away from the gate they announced what the weather was like in Fort Lauderdale and we may land ahead of schedule. This bothered me, because I was flying into West Palm! I told the air barmaid that I was being picked up in West Palm by my friend who would be driving from Fort Pierce to Key West (no cell phones back then) and was picking me up along the way. I gave her (from memory) what I *thought* was my friend’s home phone and she said she would bring it to the cockpit, they would radio EWR and call my friend, hopefully before he left home and tell him I would bee in Fort Lauderdale, not West Palm. Once they got out of radio range of EWR they couldn’t confirm whether my friend had been reached or not. I worried for half the flight and then realized, “Hey, I have $300 in my pocket and it is Spring Break in Fort Lauderdale. Even if I miss my friend and he heads down to the Keys without me, I still shouldn’t have a problem finding a good time.” As it turned out, I had remembered the correct phone number and my friend was waiting for me in FLL instead fo West Palm.
Still a lot of spring breakers in Key West. Hang out at free smathers beach in the day and Duval street at night. Irish Kevin’s is a big draw. They must have money because it ain’t cheap.
^^^btw, last minute gate change. They let me on a flight I didn’t have a ticket for.
There are also vans from Mia. That’s probably the way I would do it if key west is the only destination. There’s no use for a car in key west.
Grim, what happened here?
http://www.nj.com/ocean/index.ssf/2017/12/owner_of_jersey_shore_rum_distillery_injured_in_ex.html#incart_river_home
Merry Christmas you filthy animals.
When I was 20, I was working in a mustang shop. The guy who ran it held the world record for quarter mile in street tires for years. Awesome racer, awful businessman. He took my father’s old rattled broken down 88 mustang and added a turboc and tuned it to 750 hp measured off the Dyno. The thing was insane. If you tapped the gas, the tires screeched. Wasn’t really drivable on the street for that reason but I drove around for a good 3 weeks like that. I was driving up Rt 70 in Brick about to go over the Manasquan river. Some guy in a 911 came flying up from behind and tried to pass me on the right. He was already going a good 20 mph faster than me. I gunned it and blew him away right before the bridge. He tried his hardest to keep up but I just kept pulling away. Hit a red light 500 ft down the road and he pulls up next to me with his wife or gf in the car. I just look over and he had this look on his face like “I spent all this money and this rusted POS is faster”. Refused to make eye contact and when the light turned green, just waited for me to go ahead of him.
As soon as I hit age 28, I decided to go 4 cylinder and drive like an old man. Now, if you want to pass me, be my guest.
Merry Christmas!
Mustangs ftw. Happy Christmas!
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/24/new-york-retail-shops-amazon-rent
Hq2@nj makes sense now
Blessed Christmas!
Merry Christmas!!
You guys make me want to go back to key west with all this talk.
Tell me again how prices are going to come down due to this tax law….keep dreaming.
“JUST SOLD!!! It’s with great pleasure that I announce another RECORD BREAKING SALE!!! After only 10 Days on the market and MULTIPLE OFFERS we have Just Sold 125 Fairview Ave in Rutherford OVER ASKING PRICE! This is the HIGHEST PRICED 3 bedroom sale in the HISTORY of Rutherford, NJ according to the NJMLS.” http://www.njlux.com/property/125-fairview-ave-rutherford-nj-07070/
“Millennials will move to the suburbs”
https://www.apartmenttherapy.com/7-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-2018-housing-market-253602
House sold for 818,000
9:14
That’s right. Just go look at my posts from 2012 on. Been saying for years millennials will move to the burbs. Said over and over again that the burbs are not dead, just have to wait till the huge millennial demographic was ready to buy houses. I gave the exact years this would start taking place. My calls have been remarkable and you could only find these predictions at this lovely blog. No other place was providing these valuable calls….no one.
Merry Christmas to all, even that Pumpkin Dickweed.
Maybe your grandmother actually buys your houses for you so you have no conception about when a house goes under contract and when it closes?
Tell me again how prices are going to come down due to this tax law….keep dreaming.
I was actually hoping this was your house and you were moving somewhere with no internet to treat your addiction.
House sold for 818,000
“Millennials will move to the suburbs”, says a past-life musician, part-time stay-at-home dad, and founder of House & Hammer, a blog about real estate and home improvement. I write about homes, travel, and other life essentials.
https://www.apartmenttherapy.com/authors/jongorey
^^^ Pumpkinesque wishful and dataless thinking
Merry Christmas. Every millennial I know lives in Jersey City, Hoboken, or Brooklyn and they refuse to have kids and move into the suburbs. It doesn’t jive with their life style. According to them, their kids are their 2 pund designer dogs
Looks like an 818k crap-shack only people in this part of the country would call “luxury”. Probably under 200k in most of the country. Ten years of negative real rates funneled into the benefit of the tri-state financiers does have consequences.
One house pumps and it was under contract before the tax law. It’s always the House with you.
Oy vey.
Pretty soon Pumps will be hitting $100K in property taxes paid since 2011 all for $30K worth of appreciation, if he’s lucky. You never know, his decorating might be the equal of his investment prowess.
⛄️🎅🤶
Lol, I paid half and my house is less than 20 years old and twice the size. Yards bigger and nicer too. 818k to live like that? No thanks.
Shitcoin talk over the holiday is at a fevered pitch. A VC in my family is pumping one coin while the housewife is pumping another.
Time to short shitcoins?
It’s 27 degrees outside right now, on Christmas night, according to our thermometer. According to weather dot com, it won’t be this warm again in our area of Boston, night or day, until January 6th.
I’m glad we have natural gas heating and a newer furnace.
We also received 3-4 inches of new snow this morning, all between 7 and 10AM; it came and went very fast. Apparently this doesn’t qualify as a White Christmas because somewhere it says you need to have 2″of new snow by 7AM. Who makes up these rules?
LOL, you should see how Pumpkin lives. They would take his kid away if she was ever caught checking the mail by herself, the mailbox is right on the shoulder of the highway.
Lol, I paid half and my house is less than 20 years old and twice the size. Yards bigger and nicer too. 818k to live like that? No thanks.
That’s a high asking for a modern midcentur-olonial. It looks to be nicely done though. Two car garage in addition to the detached garage? I could see that appealing to someone who is looking for studio (music/art) space separate from the house.
Prospective nanny “interview” space?
I could see that appealing to someone who is looking for studio (music/art) space separate from the house.