The death spiral continues

From the Star Ledger:

Ex-N.J. attorney general.: How Murphy can make state more affordable

It’s become a ritual of gubernatorial transition in New Jersey: the incoming governor expresses “shock” at the dismal state of New Jersey’s finances, thus setting up his predecessor as the scapegoat for what will become — because it has been — every administration’s failure: to resolve New Jersey’s crisis of affordability.

Granted, Gov.-elect Phil Murphy’s way of expressing concern — by quoting then-Gov.-elect Chris Christie’s own words to Gov. Jon Corzine back to Christie eight years later — is a bit more pointed than in prior transitions. But the dynamic is unchanged, as is the stark reality that threatens to make New Jersey ungovernable: We pay too much in taxes, and it’s never enough.

New Jerseyans have been for years among the most highly taxed citizens in the nation, but our tax revenues cannot keep pace with the state’s commitments — to schoolchildren, to the poor, to the elderly, to public employees such as police, firefighters and teachers, and to the provision of local and county services.

To make matters worse, as the population ages and costs escalate, the amounts that the state pays in pension and health benefits to public employees at every level of government are increasingly leaving New Jersey’s economy — as seniors and others choose to move to warmer and more affordable states. Our population growth, among the lowest in the nation, cannot keep pace with that of other states or with steady increases in the cost of obligations, resulting in pressure to raise taxes further.

It isn’t hard to envision the result if nothing intervenes to change this dynamic: a death spiral, the statewide equivalent to what many cities have experienced, in which a shrinking tax base is asked to pay higher and higher taxes, which causes the tax base to shrink further.

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Unrest. Bookmark the permalink.

107 Responses to The death spiral continues

  1. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    frist

  2. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    I just heard the banner slogan for the Dems in 2018: “We just need to be kind to those who are less fortunate than us.”

  3. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    In other words, “Illegals – vote for us, we won’t kick you out. Non-white citizens – don’t worry about the money we’re going to give to the illegals, just keep voting the same.”

  4. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    How to make NJ more affordable? Simple. Get rich people to leave (and they are well on their way). Home prices will go down, and so will everything else.

  5. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    I can see a small, insular, town like Glen Rock going downhill in almost no time. A lot of the residents have lots of equity and mobility.

  6. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    ^^^empty nesters too.

  7. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    It will be pretty funny when BJ Pumps is the richest person left in Passaic County, though.

  8. grim says:

    Keep in mind that the wealthiest in NJ are typically not working salaried positions for an employer. They are business owners, with businesses based here. I’m talking about doctors and lawyers with practices, distributors, retailers, contractors, etc.

    For these people to move, is for them to start over from nearly ground zero. The question is, are they willing to give up an actual successful business for a possibility of a successful business somewhere else? For many of these people, it took time to build networks, relationships, and business.

    I suspect for many, they’ll look at the calendar and decide that it’s simply easier to ride it out for 10-15 more years than to attempt to pull out and move. Can some do it easier than others? Yeah, sure, absolutely.

    So it’s a bit of a catch-22. Those who would stand to gain the most financially by moving to a lower tax area, are the ones who would have the hardest time moving. Not only that, but there is a strong likelihood that their level of success in a lower-cost area might not even be remotely near enough to justify the risk and cost.

    Someone who owns a construction business can’t move to Texas, there is simply no demand for the business. If you are making a good living as an independent contractor here in NJ, you’ll be a day laborer in Texas or Florida. You guys understand that, correct? A GC with a couple of guys, clearing $200k a year in Jersey is going to be lucky to make $75k in Texas.

    The vast, vast, vast majority of wealth in NJ is associated with small business ownership. Also keep in mind that it’s NJ’s density and business diversity that make much of this success possible.

  9. D-FENS says:

    Another one to watch….There are also a lot of cases challenging Gerrymandering. They are aimed at states that are predominantly Republican, but could have implications for California and NJ.

    If Republicans in NJ have any balls left, they’ll challenge the NJ map.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/court-strikes-down-north-carolinas-congressional-map-for?utm_term=.ewnoGvJZA#.vxYAZLPlz

    grim says:
    January 16, 2018 at 7:19 am
    Regarding unions and dues discussion yesterday. I hear there is a case in the supreme court that is challenging this? If the case is decided against unions, unions can not force members to pay dues. Would have a very interesting impact to local unions, especially powerful unions like the NJEA and CWA.

  10. D-FENS says:

    Grim, I think it will accelerate consolidation within the state. I see it already as Atlantic Health buys up every hospital, lab and doctor’s practice. Why wait 10-15 years when you can sell the business?

  11. grim says:

    Not to mention that this is exactly the same group who stands to benefit most from tax reform.

    Seems to me, the most plausible outcome is greater bifurcation across the state. The number of wealthy stand to increase.

    Murphy will take care of the poor.

    The middle, well, f*ck you.

  12. Hold my beer says:

    Grim,

    I can see salaried employees bailing out of N.J. if you can get 90% of your salary in Tampa or Charlotte or Dallas and have a much lower cost of living it makes sense to move.

    I know dozens of office workers who transferred to Florida or Tampa and loved the cheaper and newer housing and a much shorter commute. There are lots of people from Illinois in dallas now. I think dallas is to Illinois what Charlotte and Tampa are to nyc/N.J. Can’t think of any successful small business owners who moved.

  13. grim says:

    Sure, but a good portion of these secondary and tertiary cities are going to see their back office activities decimated by automation.

    Ask me how I know?

    Ok, I’ll tell you. Just recently deployed a project for a well known US company that reduced their back office staff from 300 to a touch under 100, with higher quality and throughput. The level of manual activity was mind boggling, completely unnecessary, and error prone.

    Now my robots OCR forms and make decisions on processing in 1/100th of the time, saving them tens of millions of dollars over the next few years.

    Thank you, thank you, I appreciate it. But really, this was so absurd I wonder how they even survived this long. On to the next one. There is a wireless company I’m working with doing a similar thing.

  14. grim says:

    Really though, we’re going to need to start considering taxing the labor of automation.

  15. Libturd says:

    “It actually looks pretty tasty to me after it’s breaded and fried.”

    You can pretty much say that about anything.

    As for the state of things in NJ. When this record market rally stops, the pension mess will come to the forefront. If I was a betting man, I would bet that the Feds are going to treat the pension shortfall much like the rail tunnel. And you now have a governor who is more concerned with being a national DNC darling than fixing NJ. Sound familiar? As long as the voters continue to bow down to their corporate ball-licking leaders from the two parties. It’s only going to get worse and worse.

    Now you get to see the difference between CC and PM. CC says no to the tunnel and steals federal dollars earmarked to the tunnel to help control taxes in NJ by using it to bail out the transportation fund. He puts a cap on property tax increases, forces public workers to give back COLA and reduce medical benefits as well as increase retirement age and cap superintendent salaries.

    Murphy comes in and attacks the feds and has told the public workers they will get everything they were promised. Then he immediately turns to feel-good, toothless quality of life immigration as a primary focus. Did he even mention this during his campaign? Mark my words. In about a year’s time, you are going to wish the worst thing Murphy did was to lay out on a beach when it was closed to the public. This guy is so clueless, he makes Pumpkin appear self aware.

    Got popcorn?

  16. grim says:

    Yet, he will have the highest approval rating of any Governor in NJ.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you want to fix this, let it crash.

    “It isn’t hard to envision the result if nothing intervenes to change this dynamic: a death spiral, the statewide equivalent to what many cities have experienced, in which a shrinking tax base is asked to pay higher and higher taxes, which causes the tax base to shrink further.”

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The more people leave, less services needed. Lower costs.

    The more people leave, the lower it costs for all aspects of life as you have less people competing for the same thing.

    Too bad the population never goes down despite claims by certain groups that claim everyone is leaving jersey. As grim alluded to in an earlier post today, too many people making money off this high density population nj provides. You just can’t make the same money in those lower dense states. That’s why they are low cost locations, people make way less money, simple as that.

  19. Juice Box says:

    Shitcoins headed deep into the trough of disillusionment

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    *Can’t make the same money in those lower cost less densely populated states.

  21. Libturd says:

    I thought NJ’s population is changing from wealthier to poorer. I could be wrong here, but thought Grim posted numbers about a year ago. We are gaining low-income population and losing high-income population. Do the tax revenue math on this. It does not end well. And we have a governor who is telling more low-income people that our doors are open for you.

    Listen. When he posted in front of a poster of CC on the beach a few months ago, I saw all I needed to see about his ability to use good judgement. He made similar mistakes as the US ambassador to Germany. We have elected another rich clown. Good luck with this.

  22. grim says:

    No, we’re gaining higher income households. More of them, and wealthier.

  23. Juice Box says:

    Yet, he will have the highest approval rating.

    he already has the approval of ex-convict and former Newark Mayor Sharpe James he was at the inauguration.

  24. grim says:

    People misunderstand the in and out-migration data.

    They see high salaries migrating out, and low salaries migrating in.

    They assume that this means NJ is losing high income residents and jobs, and replacing them with low income jobs, and that’s a completely misguided presumption.

    Look, it’s a great misunderstanding to have, don’t get me wrong, we want our leadership thinking that this is the case, even if it’s not.

  25. Libturd says:

    Gotcha. Thanks. Murphy is doing the Lords work I guess.

  26. Very Stable Genius says:

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    grim says:
    January 3, 2018 at 7:47 am
    Have a Ring Pro doorbell installed too. Ring Pro – this requires normal doorbell wiring. Why? No stupid batteries and a nicer looking installation. Not the Elite, because that requires Power Over Ethernet, and makes it nearly impossible to install a conventional doorbell in the future (if you want to go backwards).

    Request Ecobee3 thermostats installed. Not the more expensive version 4, which have Alexa installed. The battle of home automation isn’t over yet, and Alexa hasn’t won. No sense paying all that money to lock-in to Alexa when the version 3 has very broad compatibility. Ecobee3 beats Nest in every way possible. Again, this requires conventional powered thermostat wiring, no batteries.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Libturd – Re: “When this record market rally stops, the pension mess will come to the forefront”

    Look you get to watch as a big chunk of 77 Billion go POOF! “And then it’s gone!”

    22 Billion in US equities with dare I say no hedge?…..28.73% of the New Jersey pension funds are invested in US Equities, doing well right now for sure.

    The question is will they sell before the downturn?

    Top US Equity Holdings of the NJ Pension Fund.

    Security Name % of Portfolio

    APPLE INC 3.47
    MICROSOFT CORP 3.30
    ALPHABET INC CL C 2.89
    AMAZON.COM INC 2.73
    FACEBOOK INC A 2.09
    JPMORGAN CHASE + CO 1.90
    JOHNSON + JOHNSON 1.86
    EXXON MOBIL CORP 1.63
    BANK OF AMERICA CORP 1.54
    WELLS FARGO + CO 1.32

    http://www.nj.gov/treasury/doinvest/pdf/DirectorsReport/2017/OctoberInvestingReport..pdf

  28. Very Stable Genius says:

    most of them said that Grims recommendation was pretty good.

  29. ExJersey says:

    Grim is right, moving isn’t for everyone.

  30. grim says:

    NJ Married Couple Families ($200,000 or higher income) – % of Total
    2005 – 9.9% of 1.629 million total (~161k)



    2009 – 12.9% of 1.636 million total (~211k)
    2010 – 13.6%
    2011 – 14.6%
    2012 – 15.1%
    2013 – 15.7%
    2014 – 16.3%
    2015 – 16.7%
    2016 – 17.8% of 1.630 million total (~290k)

    We’re talking about 79k married couple families moving into the $200k+ category over the past 7 years.

  31. Juice Box says:

    Grim – What % are two income families?

    Lose 1 income your family is toast….

  32. grim says:

    NJ Married Couple Families ($150,000 or higher income) – % of Total
    2005 – 19.3% of 1.629 million total (~314k)



    2009 – 24.8% of 1.636 million total (~406k)
    2010 – 26.0%
    2011 – 27.5%
    2012 – 28.3%
    2013 – 29.1%
    2014 – 29.9%
    2015 – 30.3%
    2016 – 31.8% of 1.630 million total (~518k)

    We’re talking about 112k married couple families moving into the $150k+ category over the past 7 years.

  33. Libturd says:

    Right. But couldn’t they have increased their income here despite the sh1tty tax situation? What do the numbers at the bottom look like? Just curious. I would also like a better explanation of how this relates to those moving in and out. Does this mean more poor families are moving out to make room for the higher income families?

  34. grim says:

    Grim – What % are two income families?

    What is this, 1957?

  35. Libturd says:

    ha ha

  36. grim says:

    We can point fingers at CEOs and claim they are the reason for income inequality.

    But frankly, when you have two married professionals forming a household, it’s nearly impossible to compete with them.

    So, when we consider household inequality as a metric, realize that this was an unfortunate, but necessary, outcome of social change.

  37. grim says:

    There is a reason I’m looking at married couple families as a statistical metric as opposed to looking at households in general. There are big mix shift issues when we’re talking about households. Looking at married couple families, now we’re putting some parameters in that control for mix. Now, we can plot the changes to the big income quartiles, especially since the population of married couple families has stayed the same.

    Looking at households in general, you don’t see the trend, because the growth in new households is in single earner single resident households, which pull the numbers down and hide the story.

  38. grim says:

    Here is the aggregate change, 2009 to 2016 for the same group, by income:

    Less than $10,000 0.1%
    $10,000 to $14,999 0.0%
    $15,000 to $24,999 -0.3%
    $25,000 to $34,999 -0.2%
    $35,000 to $49,999 -0.9%
    $50,000 to $74,999 -2.2%
    $75,000 to $99,999 -2.6%
    $100,000 to $149,999 -0.9%
    $150,000 to $199,999 2.1%
    $200,000 or more 4.9%

    Like I said, it’s a hollowing out of the middle glass, the two biggest income ranges that saw sizable drops were $50k-75k and $75-99k.

  39. grim says:

    And keep in mind, we’re controlling for married couples here, so this isn’t a situation where two households in the lower income ranges are married and moving up. The unmarried households are not included here.

  40. No One says:

    I’d worry about using 2009 as a starting point, considering that was an extremely weak year. I have a suspicion that a lot of couples involuntarily became 1 income couples in 2008 & 2009, then as unemployment went down gradually added the second income back, moving them from say $120k incomes to $200k+ incomes.
    Incomes I suspect also includes capital gains on stocks/bonds? In 2009 not many capital gains to realize. As market rises, more chance to add to total income.

  41. grim says:

    Updated the tables above with 2005 data, which further emphasize the trend I am noting.

  42. grim says:

    Here is the aggregate change, 2005 to 2016 for married couple households

    Less than $10,000 -0.3
    $10,000 to $14,999 -0.5
    $15,000 to $24,999 -1.2
    $25,000 to $34,999 -1.1
    $35,000 to $49,999 -2.8
    $50,000 to $74,999 -5.2
    $75,000 to $99,999 -3.5
    $100,000 to $149,999 -0.2
    $150,000 to $199,999 4.9
    $200,000 or more 9.9

  43. Very Stable Genius says:

    absurd. income inequality is due to destruction of unions, cost of college, lack of training and lack of universal healthcare, tax system, etc. has nothing to do with marriage

    grim says:
    January 17, 2018 at 10:28 am
    We can point fingers at CEOs and claim they are the reason for income inequality.

    But frankly, when you have two married professionals forming a household, it’s nearly impossible to compete with them.

    So, when we consider household inequality as a metric, realize that this was an unfortunate, but necessary, outcome of social change.

  44. grim says:

    Except when you realize that people tend to marry people in their same socioeconomic strata. When both partners work, the are typically working in similar income level jobs, and this results in significant increases in household incomes at a statistical level. Not surprisingly, we’re not talking about a random pairing of individuals.

    A doctor is far more likely to marry a doctor than a janitor. And when the doctor marries the doctor, the single income household led by the janitor is going to be far, far away.

  45. Yo! says:

    Comparing Hudson and Sussex stats for 2012 (to avoid using Great Recession starting point):

    Hudson
    >$200,000 +30.1%
    $50,000-$99,999 -0.5%

    Sussex
    >$200,000 +14.7%
    $50,000-$99,999 -9.4%

    Disparities by county and income cohort are wider than I expected.

    Census household income stats include recurring income, excludes capital gains

  46. Libturd, Ch@neling JJ says:

    The janitor that marries a doctor is either a very smart janitor or hung like a horse.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Shhh

    Does not fit narrative…..must suppress

    “The rise of “fast fashion” is thus creating a bleak scenario: The tide of secondhand clothes keeps growing even as the markets to reuse them are disappearing. From an environmental standpoint, that’s a big problem. Already, the textile industry accounts for more greenhouse-gas emissions than all international flights and maritime shipping combined; as recycling markets break down, its contribution could soar.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-15/no-one-wants-your-used-clothes-anymore?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=180117&utm_campaign=ritholtz

  48. grim says:

    That’s awesome

  49. Fabius Maximus says:

    All Sweetness and Light in GOP Land.

    “Even though I have disagreed with some of the Republican organization’s positions, for decades I never questioned my affiliation with the party ”
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/letters/ct-gop-trump-immigration-meeting-swear-20180116-story,amp.html

  50. Fabius Maximus says:

    In all these discussions on Socio-economic inflow and outflow, do you factor in that you don’t move the house!. The property taxes will still be paid.

  51. leftwing says:

    Ehh, not buying 100% of the arguments grim.

    On the married households my response is “well, I hope so!”. No One makes two good points.

    The first data set begins with the market/economic lows of 2009, and the next set of data starts 12 years ago. In both instances – low basis and longevity – I don’t think a 4.9% and 9.9% increase in numbers over $200k is exceptional. Best case, I would expect it, or better.

    His second point is equally valid that presumably the data come from tax returns so include capital gains, and other one time items. Without backup it’s impossible to take a view on the data. To take the extreme to prove the point, you could get the same result if 79k families were in financial distress and liquidated retirement plans to make ends meet.

    I’d throw in one other variable, which is the net marriage rate in the income cohorts. The demographic bubble is aging, marrying more while they are earning more. Two run of the mill early 30 professionals getting hitched creates a new married household of $200k. That needs to be offset by the number of divorces at that income group, more data we don’t have. Again, I could sketch a negative scenario on this data, where “marriages of necessity” are occurring to obtain a livable lifestyle, while established, wealthy couples are fleeing the state. Not saying that’s the case, just pointing out the limitations of the data.

    Bottom line for me, not enough data to make a truly good conclusion but if one wanted to I wouldn’t pop champagne yet.

    Getting 11k more $200k plus households annually over seven years – 500 per county – during a raging bull market, a solid housing run, and a 7 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate on its face is just OK, at best.

  52. D-FENS says:

    Are you a union member? Perhaps Union leader?

    Very Stable Genius says:
    January 17, 2018 at 11:23 am
    absurd. income inequality is due to destruction of unions, cost of college, lack of training and lack of universal healthcare, tax system, etc. has nothing to do with marriage

  53. leftwing says:

    “absurd. income inequality is due to destruction of unions, cost of college, lack of training and lack of universal healthcare, tax system, etc. has nothing to do with marriage”

    So tell me, unstable genius, how not giving away something for free (healthcare) or a progressive tax system widens the INCOME gap?

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    D-FENS,

    You’ll never got an answer from him. I’m pretty sure I know who it is.

  55. leftwing says:

    Separately, Booker threw his hat in the Presidential ring yesterday with a bloviating monologue on Trump’s comments during what was supposed to be a Congressional hearing on immigration.

    Arms waving, table pounding, chest thumping indignation….quite a humorous show. Laughable.

    Best line….he cried “tears of rage” when told of Trump’s comments. TEARS OF RAGE I tell you!!!

    14+ minutes of oral diarrhea.

    LOL. Another Panderer-in-Chief in training.

  56. D-FENS says:

    Very Misogynistic actually.

  57. D-FENS says:

    Booker’s friend T-Bone used to cry tears of rage like that.

  58. Libturd, Ch@neling JJ says:

    I expect all of these quality of life issues led Democratic hopefuls to get the HRC treatment. They still don’t get it.

    Promise a fix to the economy, get elected, and then let immigrant hermaphrodites have sex in both the ladies and mens bathrooms simultaneously. Heck, let them get married in either of them. But don’t make it your platform. How hard is this to get? Sheesh!

  59. leftwing says:

    Getting some real demographic ticket balancing issues for the Dems 2020.

    Booker, Winfrey, Warren.

    Pick two. LOL.

  60. grim says:

    Ehh, not buying 100% of the arguments grim.

    I can only work within the construct of the data available, realize we’re talking about long term trends, and the methodology needs to be consistent over the whole series. Is it perfect, no.

    Arguing that we should have minted more millionaires over the time period is a much different discussion than saying NJ is losing wealthy households and replacing them with poor households, or jobs, etc.

    We can’t have an honest discussion saying the ACS datasets are crap, but then pointing to United Van Lines as being some sort of gospel with no methodological issue. Or worse, attack it with anecdotes.

    I updated the series back to 2005, because everyone thought perhaps I was cherry picking the 2009, and it continues to show exactly the same trend. Is 2005 ok? I hope so, because that’s the first year of the series, if we want it back further, it don’t exist.

  61. grim says:

    I thought Booker came across as very genuine in his statement. I’m not sure if those were prepared remarks, I suspect not, because he did appear to stumble at times. It was clear his eyes were welling up as he was ranting, the cracking of his voice.

    You don’t have to like the guy, but his argument was spot on. Don’t stand in front of Congress and say you don’t remember what Trump said. That’s just bullshit. Either tell the truth, or tell a lie, but tell it. If you are going to defend your party in a lie, then do it, publically perjure yourself.

    He made the republican establishment look like a bunch of buffoons.

  62. Libturd, Ch@neling JJ says:

    I used to like Booker. Then he started to remind me too much of Obama. Absolutely groomed for the presidency. Can’t we find one normal person who want to help the populace and not just themselves?

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty,

    What’s not to believe? Do you see a ton of foreclosures in higher tier towns? No, and that’s all the evidence you need to know it’s true.

    leftwing says:
    January 17, 2018 at 11:54 am
    Ehh, not buying 100% of the arguments grim.

  64. leftwing says:

    Grim re: Booker, no legitimacy with me. He put words in Trump’s mouth. Said Trump called the people sh1tholes, which is not true. Then he extrapolated that non-existent statement into “if these black people are sh1tholes, then Trump is racist”.

    Nice slight of hand. Make up “A”, then label someone a racist through the transitive theory off your made up statement.

    Sorry if it offends, but some places are sh1tholes. It may not be polite to say, but it’s the fact. I fly into Belgrade, the plane was chased by a pack of wild dogs at landing. Sh1thole. I take a car from the airport of most Carribean nations or Israel to the waterfront, the places I pass are sh1tholes. I look at major portions of Newark, of which he was mayor from 2006-13, sh1tholes.

    It was a Congressional hearing. Investigative. Q&A. He hijacked the time for a misrepresented monologue to his base.

    You are smoking some of Murphy’s soon-to-be-legal hooch if you believe 100% of that wasn’t pre-planned and rehearsed.

    If he wants TEARS OF RAGE!!, cry for the people living in the sh1thole city of Newark he left behind, not much better off than he found it after seven years.

  65. Yo! says:

    Leftwing,

    I posted stats at 11:34 for Hudson and Sussex using 2012 as starting point to avoid Great Recession noise.

    Here are statewide stats for household income between 2012 and 2016.

    >$200,000 +19.0%
    $50,000 to $99,000 +2.3%

    These income figures exclude capital gains.

    I say Grim’s points are valid. The state’s middle class is in stagnation, while the top 10% of households pulling is $200,000+ are doing fantastic and aren’t motivated to leave.

  66. Bystander says:

    Call two income white collar households what they are – parenting outsourcers who value a giant house and expensive German cars over comforting their children at night. That is the live in nanny’s job. Should work out just fine for next generation.

  67. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Well, yeah. Illegals already get to vote on that one, right?

    Yet, he will have the highest approval rating of any Governor in NJ.

  68. A Home Buyer says:

    Do these numbers adjust for inflation?

    3% COL raises over 7 years puts a lot of people in the 150 k + to over 200 k after that time frame assuming no merit increases or job hops which can net one time big % increases.

  69. Fast Eddie says:

    Geezus, Trump is making us some serious dough. That corporate tax cut was worth it all! Crawl a wall of worry? 10% correction? Who gives a f.uck but I don’t think so. Keep feeding those dividends!

  70. leftwing says:

    “Arguing that we should have minted more millionaires over the time period is a much different discussion than saying NJ is losing wealthy households and replacing them with poor households, or jobs, etc.”

    Not arguing the former and saying the data is too broad to even comment on the latter.

    I don’t think the start date matters….either trend is disappointing.

    For the 2005 start date there were 161k households over $200k and 314k over $150k. Pick your wage inflation. Data I find show over that 12 year period wages cumulatively should have increased 25%-34%.

    That means with no other changes – holding everything else constant – one could expect those 314k households at $150k to grow IN TOTAL into $200k households. NJ added net 130k.

    For a 2009 start the numbers are even worse. Market up over 300%, housing up at least 30%, 220,000 new jobs created in state……and we added 79k? Based on the same static wage inflation analysis base wages should have increased 19%. There were 406k households earning over $150k in 2009. How many of those were earning over $168k? Every single one of them should have moved to the $200k cohort simply by sitting in their chairs and breathing for seven years. By that analysis there was a substantial unexplained gross loss of $200k earners somewhere……

    Again, I am sure there is A LOT going on behind the data….marriage, retirement, one earner married households turning into two earner (particularly relevant for the 2009 comparison), etc.

    On the surface I just don’t see the numbers supporting celebration. In both analyses nearly the entire $150k cohort should have moved up, yet the net in each measurement period is MUCH lower. Where’d everyone go? Can’t all be retirees and divorcees staying here……..

  71. J says:

    If NJ were a stock, any smart investor would short it.

    There is no one to blame but the Democrats who over spend and the morons that vote those Democrats into office.

  72. Libturd sporting Tiger Wood says:

    So I guess my DOW 26K call for Wednesday ended up being spot on.

  73. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    immigrant undocumented hermaphrodites

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    Was just reading your new Governor’s agenda:

    He has vowed to strengthen New Jersey’s gun-control laws, to fully fund the state’s school formula and public-worker pension systems, to eliminate PARCC testing in schools, to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15, to install universal pre-K and free community college, to institute a state bank, to raise taxes on millionaires and corporations, and legalize recreational marijuana. And he believes New Jersey should look to deep-blue California as a model.

    Good l0rd, who would vote for this? I don’t know enough about PARCC to weigh it.

  75. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    That’s how I saw it. BTW, if you missed the full, hour long, unedited, WH briefing with Trump’s doctor yesterday, you missed the best hour of comedy in a long while.

    It was a Congressional hearing. Investigative. Q&A. He hijacked the time for a misrepresented monologue to his base.

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    Apple just announced on Wednesday it will bring back hundreds of billions of dollars from overseas to fund investment in the U.S.

    “Apple, already the largest US taxpayer, anticipates repatriation tax payments of approximately $38 billion as required by recent changes to the tax law. A payment of that size would likely be the largest of its kind ever made,” the company said in the release.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/it-looks-like-apple-is-bringing-back-home-nearly-all-of-its-250-billion-foreign-cash.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104950893&yptr=yahoo

  77. Fast Eddie says:

    A $350,000,000,000 investment in the U.S. over the next 5 years. That’s ONE company. Compare that to the $870,000,000,000 Oblama pilfered from tax payers to pay cronies and losers. Liberals must be committing suicide!

  78. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    I have a feeling the market didn’t completely believe/price in the new tax law and it is still digesting it. The tax benefits that domestic companies will enjoy, particularly MidCap and SmallCaps, will probably take quite a while to price in because there just aren’t enough shares traded. I still wouldn’t go for pancake in a spray can though.

  79. D-FENS says:

    Oh my god Grim. Don’t make me laugh.

  80. leftwing says:

    A $350,000,000,000 investment in the U.S. over the next 5 years. That’s ONE company. Compare that to the $870,000,000,000 Oblama pilfered from tax payers to pay cronies and losers. Liberals must be committing suicide!”

    WH needs to jump on this PR.

    Last Admin: Excoriate companies, build a tax code that incentivizes them to keep earnings off-shore so aggressively that companies try to move their headquarters overseas to get away from US jurisdiction.

    This Admin: Work proactively with companies, get hundreds of BILLIONS of investment back from overseas for US investment, pocket $38B in taxes to the US on the way.

    Oh, BTW, that $38B is TWO walls. Let the tax check clear and if I were Trump I would then massively troll Tim Cook and his liberal sycophants by proposing a double wall. Much more secure. And publicly thank Apple for paying for it.

  81. Fast Eddie says:

    leftwing,

    Touché! :)

  82. grim says:

    $50,000 to $74,999 -5.2
    $75,000 to $99,999 -3.5
    $100,000 to $149,999 -0.2
    $150,000 to $199,999 4.9
    $200,000 or more 9.9

    These numbers don’t really seem to be indicative to me of people moving upwards based on wage inflation. The most telling piece is that the $100-150k range is basically flat over the time period. The bigger drop of the $50-75k range moving up to the $200k range? I don’t buy it.

  83. Juice Box says:

    re: Apple new – No manufacturing jobs coming back to US. Lazy US workers are too unskilled and are fat dotards.

    Meanwhile in China….

    Nothing to see here, now get back to work polishing my iParts!

    https://twitter.com/search?q=aapl&ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Esearch

  84. leftwing says:

    getting blacklisted, can’t figure out why.

    Grim, the data is just to sparse to make any kind of conclusion on what we are discussing. Wage gains over those periods are real. Background data that has a higher delta than the net numbers is unavailable.

  85. leftwing says:

    Best may be to do some comps. What do the same numbers look like for Westchester and CT. That at least gives some relative measurement.

  86. No One says:

    Regarding that Apple factory – doesn’t look that bad compared to farming in an un-air conditioned rice paddie. The dorms are shabby, like pretty much all living spaces in China 20 years ago, except they would have cleaned up their room and made their beds before taking photos. There are still at least 500mn seriously poor people in China. Working in a crappy factory is still a step up.

    Another shocker expose that living in a third world country sucks unless you are a big-shot there. And possibly even then.

  87. ExJersey says:

    3:26 pure genius

  88. ExJersey says:

    Stable Genius

  89. 3b says:

    New California has declared independence from the rest of California. The inland counties of most of the state want to leave the coastal areas behind.

  90. 3b says:

    Bystander I don’t think most of these young people have any other choice but to have two incomes and a good/ decent standard of living. And even if doable if the one income earner loses their employment it’s a problem. Especially if the spouse has been out of work a number of years.

  91. ExJersey says:

    6:02 sounds legit

  92. Yo! says:

    No death spiral in Hudson County. Residents there living it up. Stats huge. Soon we’ll see home values go to $1,000 per square foot for best cribs.

  93. D-FENS says:

    All rifles with “one military feature” to be banned. Bill introduced in the legislature. Expect Murphy to skip to the signing.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    To make any kind of conclusion? Wtf? You and your ilk have been bashing jersey and claimed millionaires are leaving in droves for years with no evidence whatsoever. Now presented with data that goes against your position and you suddenly take the position that there is not enough data to a draw a conclusion.

    leftwing says:
    January 17, 2018 at 4:01 pm
    getting blacklisted, can’t figure out why.

    Grim, the data is just to sparse to make any kind of conclusion on what we are discussing. Wage gains over those periods are real. Background data that has a higher delta than the net numbers is unavailable.

  95. D-FENS says:

    Gun control is free red meat to the liberal base. If you’re a gun owner, expect to be Murphy’s punching bag for the next four years.

  96. grim says:

    Well that’s interesting.

    Meeting with a NJ based company tomorrow with approximately 125 employees, they would like to outsource quickly.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350 kilometres) and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking.”

    Want to hurt the drug cartels and help Mexico? Legalize cocaine in the US.

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/01/legal-pot-crippling-mexican-drug-trafficking-organisations.html

  98. D-FENS says:

    Cartels are illicit logistics organizations. Make marijuana legal and they sell heroin. Make heroin and cocaine legal and they’ll turn to human trafficking and sell firearms.

  99. Juice Box says:

    Grim the wise.

    Apple is promising 20,000 customer support jobs located at their new US based second campus. Plan is to announce the location later this year.

    Where at would you say?

    Only list I can find is this, I am sure you have better data.

    Top 20 Largest Call Centers in the U.S.

    Company City State Estimated #
    of Employees
    American Express Phoenix AZ 5,200
    Fidelity Investments Westlake TX 4,400
    Fidelity Investments Covington KY 3,800
    Bank of America Norfolk VA 3,600
    Citibank Irving TX 3,500
    Blue Cross Blue Shield Richardson TX 3,203
    Florida Blue Jacksonville FL 3,000
    Citigroup Tampa FL 3,000
    UnitedHealth Group Greensboro NC 3,000
    Bank of America Phoenix AZ 2,946
    EchoStar Englewood CO 2,911
    Citibank Sioux Falls SD 2,900
    Wells Fargo Sioux Falls SD 2,832
    JPMorgan Chase Phoenix AZ 2,825
    JPMorgan Chase Wilmington DE 2,600
    Citigroup San Antonio TX 2,600
    Citigroup Jacksonville FL 2,500
    MasterCard International St. Louis MO 2,500
    Sabre Holdings Corp. Southlake TX 2,500
    Wells Fargo Fort Mill SC 2,419

  100. Blarff says:

    re: Booker

    Not sure someone who gets weepy with rage over an insensitive comment made by a known buffoon is fit to lead anything. Maybe Booker should solicit the nomination of the Pity Party? Or better yet, seek residency in one of those sh!thole countries he cares so passionately about. No one in politics is this thin skinned. His grandstanding was 100% political theater.

  101. Blarff says:

    how soon until grim offshores those apple jobs again?

  102. J says:

    Corrupt Governor Murphy is now pushing to raise taxes, again! Murphy is now looking for a “Millionaire’s Tax” that will drive even more of the successful people who sustain the NJ economy out of NJ.

    It is clear that the only person dumber than a NJ Democrat politician is the moron who voted for that Democrat politician.

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