From HousingWire:
CoreLogic: Housing market nearly recovered from recession
CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, released a report outlining the real estate economy from 2006 to 2017, showing that the housing market has nearly completely recovered from the recent recession.
In some areas, residential areas began to hit their peak levels as early as 2005, according to the company’s Evaluating the Housing Market Since the Great Recession report. The majority of home prices collapsed in 2007.
During the recession, home prices fell 33% nationwide, hitting their lowest in March 2011. Since then, home prices have risen once again by 51%. The average home prices is now 1% higher than its 2006 level and the average annual equity increase was $14,888 in the third quarter of 2017. This indicates the housing market has recovered in many parts of the U.S., according to the report.
But while, overall, the U.S. has pushed past the recession, some states are still struggling to return to their pre-recession price levels. For example, Nevada saw the greatest drop after the housing crash as its home prices fell 60% from their peak levels.
Since then, home prices increased 93% from their trough, but remain 23% below their pre-recession peaks. What’s more, 9% of mortgaged properties in the state remained underwater as of the third quarter of 2017.
…
While some states saw their home prices fall drastically during the recession, others only experienced slight changes. North Dakota’s decline was just 2% due in part to the energy boom, and home prices in the state have since risen 48% above their previous peak.“Homeowners in the United States experienced a run-up in prices from the early 2000s to 2006, and then saw the trend reverse with steady declines through 2011,” CoreLogic Chief economist Frank Nothaft said. “After reaching bottom in 2011, our national price index is up more than 50%.”
“West Coast states, such as California, Washington and Oregon are seeing some of largest trough-to-current growth rates in home prices,” Nothaft said. “Greater demand and lower supply, as well as booming job markets, have given some of the hardest-hit housing markets a boost in home prices. Yet, many are still not back to pre-crash levels.”
The first rule of bubbles is the next bubble must be bigger than the last.
I thought the rule of bubbles is that nobody talks about bubbles.
First rule of bubbles is that there are no rules of bubbles.
Craaappyyyyy weather.
Murphy kicks the can, reverses the Christie administration change to pension return expectations.
Murphy reverses Christie on crucial N.J. pension change
The Liberals will be conservative when it suits them, that pension fund contribution rate should be razed to 12% to get it fully funded in the next 7 to 10 years.
So I was able to get my rental last night in Central FLorida by Orlando. The homes for rent sold for about 400,000 recently the new construction prices mid 300,000 HOA fees are about 400 a month. The new version of the timeshare I guess is fueled aAirbnb
What did you pay?
Do you remember blowing bubbles as a kid?
2900 all in including Resort access cleaning services taxes for a 5 bedroom new house with a pool.
Lib,
Amazing Johnathan? That bit is priceless.
Australian housing bubble popping?
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
So, the tariff on steel and aluminum will weaken China significantly while increasing jobs and wages for American workers. All done in one swoop! I bet Oblama wishes he would have thought of it.
Any time real estate rises in Florida, it’s never been a good sign.
My parents got burned when my father accepted a high paying position in central florida. He ended up losing it half a year in and they bought a home for $600k in 1988. A few members of the original Orlando Magic were our neighbors in this development. He took nearly a $200k hit when he sold. That same home was sold recently for $580k. 30 years, it sold less than the original price. That’s pathetic.
My cousins also moved from Boston to Florida in 2004 only to watch their home drop in value and were surrounded by vacants. I also know a family friend who bought 3 condos in Orlando to rent in 2006. Her rent never covered the mortgage and still doesn’t.
I think the ultimate course of action is to simply default on all of our bonds to China. I think that’s the plan. They cheat on trade, we cheat on debt.
Florida exists to escape the north east winters. If I was forced to move there permanently, it would be a high rise condo in Miami.
Bystander…yes.
Take a look at the new construction prices. These are mostly rental homes powered by AirBnb and VRBO.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9399/FL/Kissimmee/filter/include=forsale+mlsfsbo+construction,viewport=28.29999:28.27482:-81.58263:-81.61413
Florida is God’s waiting room.
https://youtu.be/4i4TF4QY96E
So why the tarriffs? Here’s a clue.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/969448197360939008
Its going to be greatness all around for Joe Six Pack.
https://jalopnik.com/trump-plans-massive-tariffs-on-metals-which-would-inev-1823431694
I don’t usually post articles like this, but this one struck a note. I remember at the time the little story about the strange IP traffic coming out of Trump Tower.
If there is somthing at the bottom of this particular rabbit hole it may not be pretty.
Got Hippa?
https://teapainusa.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/data-patterns-suggest-trump-towerspectrum-health-ran-a-stealth-data-machine-with-russia/
Yes, Trump is a very stable genius who was first to think of tariffs. Let’s see what GOP is saying:
-Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah said the tariffs would be a “huge job-killing tax hike.”
-Sen. Ben Sasse, said this is something you expect from a “leftist administration,” not a Republican commander in chief
-Sen. Pat Roberts, who is the chair of the Senate agriculture committee, also blasted the decision for the tariffs and warned of retaliation.
“They’ve already done this on washing machines and solar panels and the sorghum producer, one of the rare crops where we were making a profit, got targeted by China,” he said. “Every time you do this, you get a retaliation. And agriculture is the number one target. I think this is terribly counterproductive for the (agriculture) economy”
Fab – again delving deep into the mire of dissonance?
The steel industry on CNBC this morning was touting the tariff as a win.
A couple of points to consider when evaluating the recent steel industry decision.
Is the US steel industry at capacity and if not, more steel made in the US will be used assuming price is better.
If US steel industry is at capacity, will the top companies exporting steel to the US be impacted by the tariff – last time our country did this, I believe Canada and Mexico were exempt from the tariffs.
Most of the imported steel into the US comes from Canada, correct?
If most of our imported steel comes from places that will receive a waiver on steel tariffs, then what is the purpose of the steel tariff?
Re: Fab’s deep conspiracy posts…..The better the economy, markets, and mainstream mood, the more unhinged the Left becomes…….Again big picture I’m happy. Let them keep piling on ahead of the 2018 elections. They look nuts, and the swing vote doesn’t elect nuts.
On FL, have no desire to be there. Hell, as I kid I never even visited Disney nor did my kids. I do have a buddy who’s made a killing on real estate in naples over the last 15 years or so. May take a look eventually at some coastal or keys properties.
There is an AirBNB business model for rentals out there if one is so inclined…..Just need to be careful, many HOA are establishing minimum rental terms.
Gary,
Not opposed to some protectionism but steel industry about the only group who likes it.
The weather is here wish you were beautiful.
@CNBCNow
Dow drops more than 200 points at the open on trade-war worries
@tonyschwartz
Hope Hicks is an enabler with spectacularly bad taste in men who ended up in a hell of her own making. She’s lived too much too soon. I’m sure there is a moral in this story, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out what it is.
@tonyschwartz
No other man in America could survive in his job the way Trump has despite vast evidence of sexual misconduct. If Harvey Weinstein, Charlie Rose, Steve Wynn and many others pay the price, why isn’t it time for Trump to step down and pay his?
Not opposed to some protectionism but steel industry about the only group who likes it.
Because you can’t decide to move your steel source over to China.
But you can move production of goods that use a lot of steel to places where steel is cheaper.
Oddest thing to me about the trade talk over past 2 years is media ignores the biggest trade war of them all, the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. Latest battle happened during campaign and in first year of Trump’s presidency. US just slapped tariffs and duties totaling 20% on Canadian imports. But nobody noticed, and the NAR didn’t make noise even though theoretically houses should be more expensive to build and remodel.
The media is embarrassing itself again. They are so shallow they only report on trade when Trump tweets about it.
NAFTA is on death watch too.
Biggest problem with NAFTA is that China uses Canada and Mexico as a proxy to US markets and skirt tariffs.
The media is embarrassing itself again. They are so shallow they only report on trade when Trump tweets about it.
Go to any home page on the internet and it’s littered with banal nonsense regarding Trump as if everything was approaching the end of the republic. Evidenced as well by the lefty daisies on this forum, frustrated with their plight in life.
Whatever happened to Mr. Housing Bubble?
grim says:
March 2, 2018 at 7:53 am
First rule of bubbles is that there are no rules of bubbles.
http://www.mrbubble.com/
But you can move production of goods that use a lot of steel to places where steel is cheaper.
That’s already been done. But while we are at it, we should slap tariffs on them as well. I love how all I read is how we are about to turn into Brazil? Why not Japan?
Because everyone knew about Trump’s sexual misconduct BEFORE he was placed in his current job. The below people listed flew under the radar while carrying out there transgressions. Trump is Teflon for now because none of the allegations rise to the level of an incremental change in perception. If the stock market tanks, along with the economy, then I guarantee that your wishes will have a greater likelihood of being granted.
Why is there no logic in your analysis, only outrage?
Very Stable Genius says:
March 2, 2018 at 12:20 pm
@tonyschwartz
No other man in America could survive in his job the way Trump has despite vast evidence of sexual misconduct. If Harvey Weinstein, Charlie Rose, Steve Wynn and many others pay the price, why isn’t it time for Trump to step down and pay his?
there = their
So we have bubbilicious housing markets again in some areas and yet personal savings are in the toilet!! Silly Americans never learn!
Yes, and that’s the problem. Trump supporters completely ignored it and put him in office. What’s the message being conveyed?
Worst part, they attacked Clinton for years, but ignore it when it comes to their guy.
“Because everyone knew about Trump’s sexual misconduct BEFORE he was placed in his current job.”
If Trump fools around in the White House people should get upset, but they won’t because if he’s caught he’ll get Jerry Falwell Jr to come perform a live TV exorcism to cast the devil out of him, and then will be given a clean slate and forgiven by his supporters. Sean Hannity will cover the whole thing and testify to his purity.
I thought leftists were in favor of free love.
I guess they finally realized trump is going to set off a trade war.
Yo! says:
March 2, 2018 at 12:51 pm
Oddest thing to me about the trade talk over past 2 years is media ignores the biggest trade war of them all, the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. Latest battle happened during campaign and in first year of Trump’s presidency. US just slapped tariffs and duties totaling 20% on Canadian imports. But nobody noticed, and the NAR didn’t make noise even though theoretically houses should be more expensive to build and remodel.
The media is embarrassing itself again. They are so shallow they only report on trade when Trump tweets about it.
My take. If each country is just making tariffs that favor themselves it will slow down the economy in my opinion. It will end up hurting the economy for everyone. You slap on this tariff, and I’ll slap on this tariff, till trade becomes non existent.
Really can’t make this stuff up. The power of the NRA.
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
The number of Delta Air Lines passengers who bought tickets with NRA discount: 13
https://usat.ly/2oK4PQw
Electrolux has put on hold it’s 250 million dollar expansion and upgrading at its plant in Tennessee due to the pending steel and aluminum tariffs. Winning?
Well, there goes my call for roaring 20’s 2.0. Just like that….puff and it’s gone.
“everyone knew about Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct BEFORE he was placed”
Heck I loved watching Jennifer Flowers press conference with Stuttering John.
Discrimination lawsuit against whites and Asians in tech positions. Which is ironic because I just read that Twitter wants to hire more minorities. Aren’t they basically saying they’re discriminating as well? Anyway, we are in the “hate white guy” period.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/youtube-being-sued-reverse-discrimination-205100377.html
Not sure if it’s HQ2, but Amazon looks to be bringing maybe 2000 jobs to Boston.
http://fortune.com/2018/02/28/amazon-boston-hiring-jobs-hq2/
Fab – your gal is coming to town. Might want to get in line now for tickets.
http://www.nj.com/education/2018/03/hillary_clinton_is_coming_to_rutgers.html#incart_river_home_pop
That was a shitty ride home
You slap on this tariff, and I’ll slap on this tariff, till trade becomes non existent.
Trade is non-existent. We export nothing to china at all. We have been in a trade war for 20 years and simply waved the white flag. A better description might have been that our generals just joined the other side and stabbed us in the back.
LOL. Tickets are free and the College Avenue Gym is tiny. She still can’t fill a room.
Fab – your gal is coming to town. Might want to get in line now for tickets.
http://www.nj.com/education/2018/03/hillary_clinton_is_coming_to_rutgers.html#incart_river_home_pop
What’s more, China accepts no finished goods. I know someone who is Chinese and he was a customs inspector in China. He told me he had to get out of China because his job was too dangerous. Everyone who wants to sneak finished goods into China tries to bribe the customs officials and the government will kill you in a Beijing minute if you even appear to be on the take.
Trade is non-existent. We export nothing to china at all. We have been in a trade war for 20 years and simply waved the white flag. A better description might have been that our generals just joined the other side and stabbed us in the back.
We actually do export some things to China, mostly food. When Obama put a tariff on Chinese tires China replied with a tariff on “Chicken Paws”, which are literally chicken feet. Nobody eats chicken feet in the US and the Chinese love US chicken feet. The reason they love US chicken feet is because we breed much bigger chickens, hence the feet are bigger. Also “baby” carrots. They don’t have the machinery to make baby carrots. (“Baby” carrots are actually made from huge deformed regular carrots).
We actually do export some things to China, mostly food. When Obama put a tariff on Chinese tires China replied with a tariff on “Chicken Paws”, which are literally chicken feet. Nobody eats chicken feet in the US and the Chinese love US chicken feet. The reason they love US chicken feet is because we breed much bigger chickens, hence the feet are bigger. Also “baby” carrots. They don’t have the machinery to make baby carrots. (“Baby” carrots are actually made from huge deformed regular carrots).
Chicken feet ain’t putting a scratch on the trade deficit. I’d sacrifice the chicken feet industry for a healthy domestic industry in other things. That being said, I buy chicken feet. It’s a great additive to a rich stock at a low price.
China…
http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/sex/chinas-condoms-are-too-small-says-zimbabwes-health-minister/news-story/0361918b79eee5500070bf28001f24b8
Wonderful my power is out now….
Thinking of my friends out Jersey way. Be safe, be happy, smoke em if you got em. If you don’t got em, come out West. We got em. In abundance.
ExPat – No interest here in seeing her.
Everytime Donnie signs something, I have to ask. It is just a reversal of an O executive Order? Hes running out of those. Or is it something weird like Steel tarriffs. When then have to ask who is making money off this?
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/969613188298870789
Left at some point you just remove the word conspiracy and replace it with Corruption.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/weeks-before-blockade-qatar-denied-money-to-kushners-firm.html
Banana Republic Status dead ahead!
Fab – Congrats you are now onto something that doesn’t smell like Borscht. Follow the money…Middle Eastern and more importantly Chinese money. Muller should really dig into all those LLCs buying up real estate in Manhattan and elsewhere. How about some subpoenas on the wire transfers?
Follow the money.
Bank ABC will debit a Chinese bank (CCP) account by $10 million
Bank ABC will credit bank a ME (DUBAI etc) bank account by $10 million
ME bank will credit bank in NY account by $10 million
NY Bank will credit “Jared” (the diamond guy not Donnie’s Son in Law) account by $10 Million…
SWIFT, BACS,Target2, Fedwire & Chaps etc etc…It ain’t bitcoin…
Only the stories some want to deny are allowed to be called conspiracies.
re: China Imports.
Half the pigs, 25% if the corn and enough soy to make everyone wear a dress. Worldwide imports folks., so hide your pigs….
How is NJ’s spring selling season kicking off?
Fabs, funny you link to NY Magazine. I subscribed to it since at least the days of Spy Magazine (‘short fingered vulgarian Donald Trump’ lol).
Literally just let my subscription expire. Last issue came this week. It has become unreadable since Trump. It was drifting that way, but slogging through the occasional partisan ridiculousness was worth the local articles and food, culture, etc pages. Not any more. John Chait, and many of his colleagues, are completely unhinged.
In any case, the referenced article at hand clearly says the Saudis had their own highly specific reasons to blockade Qatar. Through some contorted logic it then makes the conclusion that somehow Kushner was involved. Can’t follow it.
Bottom line is that, no secret, the Kushner family is in at least a half a billion dollar hole that needs to be fixed by an equity contribution and a refi. That’s not news. Absent the hedgies there are about a dozen bankers and a few dozen well known oligarchs in that business able to write that size check. Given their positions, it is no surprise they would be through the White House under any Administration.
Unless someone can come up with a specific quid pro quo for real consideration all you have is a not unexpected coincidence at best or at worse a mutual trading of access for access that is the everyday currency of politics everywhere.
Until Mueller or someone nails down specifics conspiracy theories like these are just rabid liberal wishlist blather, analogous to and on the same scale of the birther movement under Obama. Which is why I am reading my last issue of NY Mag after about a quarter century as a subscriber.
Would have expected better from your intellectuals ;)
Still no power.
I’m sorry, climate change is real. This weather is beyond messed up. My clifton property had plants coming up prior to this storm. Weather is just all over the place. No doubt in my mind that we should be investing a lot more resources into figuring out what we are doing to this planet with our actions. Anyone ignoring, or even worse, denying climate change, are as ignorant as they come.
What’s your prediction?
Yo! says:
March 3, 2018 at 6:43 am
How is NJ’s spring selling season kicking off?
Is there any analysis on NJ during that same time period that someone can post a link to?
From Otteau a couple days ago:
Increase of NJ Purchase Contracts Retract
In January, the number of home purchase contracts in New Jersey for that month was the highest on record, exceeding the prior peak in 2005 and signaling continuing strong demand due to accelerating economic growth and a rising home-ownership rate. Still, the 2% gain over last year was the smallest increase in recent years, which is largely due to unwarranted hysteria in the wake of widespread misinformation about the real effects of tax reform.
Shifting to the supply side of the equation, inventory remains constricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has fallen to its lowest point since 2005, having declined by 4,400 (-11%) over the past year. This is also about 39,000 (-53%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 4.7 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago, when it was 5.5 months.
Currently, 19 out of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, whichis a balance point for home prices. Middlesex County has the strongest market conditions in the state with 3.2 months of supply, followed by Hudson, Union, Monmouth, Essex, Passaic, Bergen, Morris, Somerset and Burlington Counties, which all have 4.2 months of supply or less. The counties with the largest amount of unsold inventory (8 months or greater) are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Atlantic (8.9) and Salem (10.1), however, these counties have shown significant improvement and are beginning to exhibit strengthening conditions.
I don’t know. Writing on the wall says that this is no conspiracy. It’s a federal investigation with many indictments. The conspiracy is thinking this investigation is just a witch hunt to get trump. Mueller is not the type to go on witch hunts, once you realize this, the writing is on the wall.
“Until Mueller or someone nails down specifics conspiracy theories like these are just rabid liberal wishlist blather, analogous to and on the same scale of the birther movement under Obama. Which is why I am reading my last issue of NY Mag after about a quarter century as a subscriber.”
Whether you realize it or not, most innovation is done through govt spending.
China is really starting to push us, could be something to be scared about, but I don’t think so. I think they lit the spark to push American innovation. Thank you, China. You are just making us that much stronger.
The New Arms Race in AI – The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AIoqNZFM4Qy-NNSDeKHL5KA
I’m sorry, climate change is real. This weather is beyond messed up. My clifton property had plants coming up prior to this storm.
I guess it will be a while before anyone stops to take pictures of your house.
Thanks grim. I’ve been looking at places in Montclair, Glen Ridge, Maplewood and South/West Orange and most of those prices are insane, at least to me. Might wait until after tax season next year to see what happens to prices.
BRT,
I hear the pictures are are Radiator cover aficionados monthly.
My predictions:
“Yo! says:
December 29, 2017 at 2:15 pm
My 2018 real estate predictions:
New Jersey home prices underperform the national average again. According to NJAR data, 2017 house prices through November are unchanged compared to the previous year – $305,000 versus $305,000. I expect similar stagnation next year, I’ll call it a -2% to +2% range for 2018 in NJ (point estimate = -0.3%), compared to national appreciation in the mid-single-digits (point estimate = 5.1% using the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index). Hudson County will put up the strongest price growth in New Jersey. These predictions are for the period of January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018.
Hysterical TDS victims, including NJ Advance Media reporter Jonathan “So Slanted” Salant and Rep. Josh “NAR Puppet” Gottheimer, have predicted double-digit NJ home price declines caused by the Trump tax bill. Declines of this magnitude won’t happen, and when they don’t, I will reach out to Salant and Gottheimer and ask them to update their expectations publicly.
Amazon announces HQ2 will be built in the Toronto area.”
Here comes the race to the bottom.
Faced with U.S. tax cuts, France, Germany hasten harmonization: Merkel – Reuters
https://apple.news/A4u3Ph_KMRZuK4c-s9xEBjg
My prediction for the Spring RE market is that people still aren’t interested in highway houses.
Yes. It rained yesterday, today it’s not. Ha anyone ever checked out the really hot climate change girls they have on the news in LA? Short skirts, high heels, big tits, and they tell you how the climate is going to change the next day.
I’m sorry, climate change is real.
Waiting for balloons at party City is worse than waiting at the dmv.
Ignorance sees nothing wrong with these drastic temperature changes. 78 one day and snowing a few days later. Nah, nothing too extreme about that. Perfectly normal.
^^^The car exhaust is making you light-headed.
Yo,
If your predictions hold true, I see it as a positive thing for jersey. If our real estate stagnated for 2 or 3 more years while the rest of the nation experiences pretty big gains, nj becomes a “value” in comparison to the rest of the nation. That should blow up our economy in the longterm.
In January, the number of home purchase contracts in New Jersey for that month was the highest on record, exceeding the prior peak in 2005…
Bullsh1t. I don’t care what numbers they display, there’s no inventory even close to 2005. And if that’s the case, I want 20% more than I paid and the contract will contain a stipulation that states you need to feed the squirrels.
You’ve never heard the expression in like a lion out like a lamb?
@thehill
Trump visits one of his private golf clubs for 100th time as president hill.cm/VkROzCd
@bessbell
MAZEL TOV, @POTUS! We didn’t think you could do it but in just ONE year you’ve played more golf than Reagan, Kennedy, Truman, Carter, George W. Bush, and your boy Andrew Jackson COMBINED!
I can’t think of a better reason for us to spend $56,014,937! Amazing day for the USA!
“I’m going to be working for you, I’m not going to have time to go play golf,”
Trump in 2016. Trump lies without shame, especially to himself.
I wonder if the tariffs are just a way to distract from hope hicks resigning and other people getting their security clearances downgraded
Left
Yes the Saudis have their own issues with Qatar, but we were always holding them in check.
I can’t wait for Tillersons memoir. It will be something like
“WTF, did these numb-nuts forget we have a Fcuking Big Base in Qatar !”
“Waiting for balloons at party City is worse than waiting at the dmv.”
Go to the Dollar Store, cheaper and quicker service.
“I’m sorry, climate change is real.”
Parts of Ireland seeing 3ft of snow, that is unheard of.
“…in just ONE year you’ve played more golf…”
Thought you libs would be happy to have him out of the office. By your measure $56m ought to be a bargain to keep him away from his desk, no? LOL.
got a text a little while ago from JCP&L, new ETA for power is 3/7 at 11:30PM. Anyone else get that? I’m in Rockaway
8:50 Dumb Dumb Dumb
The current climate puts this into perspective
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yr7odFUARg
I suppose the answer is “Whats on Fox and Friends at 3AM!”
https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/969543178998120448
My friend received the same message. Went out and bought a generator. Power came back on today. He lives in a pa town that borders nj.
My family slept 3 in a bed last night. House temp was 55 with no heat and electricity. Glad to have my power back.
Glen says:
March 3, 2018 at 8:53 pm
got a text a little while ago from JCP&L, new ETA for power is 3/7 at 11:30PM. Anyone else get that? I’m in Rockaway
I did ask Chi about this back in May and got a big whatever!
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2017/05/09/fake-it-until-you-make-it-or-lose-it-again/#comment-778492
Because “What is the big fing deal?” with Insider Trading!”
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-ichan-steel-imports-cf7deb8beaf0/