Feeling Hot Hot Hot

From MarketWatch:

Americans haven’t been this optimistic about house prices since just before the crash

House prices are soaring and, despite warnings from some analysts, most Americans believe they will continue to soar.

A majority of U.S. adults (64%) continue to believe home prices in their local area will increase over the next year, a survey released Monday by polling firm Gallup concluded. That’s up nine percentage points over the past two years and is the highest percentage since before the housing market crash and Great Recession in the mid-2000s.

The level of optimism is edging closer to the 70% of adults in 2005 who said prices would continue rising. That, of course, was less than one year before the peak of the housing market bubble in early 2006, which was largely fueled by a wave of subprime lending. (Roughly one-quarter of respondents in both 2005 and 2018 said they believed house prices would remain the same.)

In 2009, during the depths of the Great Recession, only 22% of Americans believed house prices would rise. But optimism about the housing market has made a slow recovery—along with the market itself—in the intervening years. Today, only 10% in the Gallup survey believe prices will fall. That compares to 5% who felt similarly pessimistic in 2005, just two years before the crash.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

75 Responses to Feeling Hot Hot Hot

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Californicator says:

    The 3.9 percent unemployment rate last month was accompanied by a contraction in the labor force, and a fall in the labor force participation rate from 63 percent in February to 62.9 percent in March and 62.8 percent in April. Had the labor force not shrunk, and the participation rate not fallen, the unemployment rate would have continued to have a 4-handle. A lower unemployment rate resulting from a shrinking work force is not a sign of a healthy economy!

    Some growth optimists blame the lower participation rate on the aging of the American population and an increasing number of baby boomers choosing to retire. These analysts should view the similar message coming from the participation rate for the 25 – 54 year olds — those in the prime working age — with alarm. This measure fell from 82.2 precent in March to 82 percent in April and remains well below the 83.2 percent level in December 2007, the month the Great Recession began. The participation rate for the prime working age group never regained its pre-recession highs despite almost nine years of economic recovery.

    Another telling statistic — seldom a focus for analysts — suggests that there is significant slack in the labor market. 7.6 million workers held multiple jobs last month, up slightly from a year earlier. The April figure is also higher than it was in December 2007. Workers typically hold multiple jobs when no single job is sufficient to provide them with a decent income. If they had been adequately compensated in their best-paying occupation, they would presumably not have to take on additional jobs to make a living. The continued high level of multiple job holders over the past several years creates considerable doubt on the strength of the economic recovery or the thesis that the US is at, or near, full employment.

  3. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Will be a tell tale season for my neighbors. Last summer, based on 1 sale, the market fell off about 4%. Right now, 3 people listed for sale all trying to get above the selling price of comps 2 years ago.

  4. Californicator says:

    BRT — FL schools — the good ones and there are some are not that different from a good NJ school. How do I know? Spent 5 years in FL (Pinelles & Hillsborough Counties) Did field work, got a Masters there.

  5. Californicator says:

    US News: We reviewed 28,496 U.S. public high schools; 239 Florida schools made our rankings.

  6. Yo! says:

    Jeff Bezos was educated at a public high school in Miami.

  7. Juice Box says:

    No bites in my neighborhood either, 4 properties for sale one is FSOB. There are three homes doing new sidimg right now etc. The risk of the new power lines running through Middletown has passed since the judge ruled in our favor. Might be a little lag before that picks up again

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    Houses don’t last long by me, I have to be honest. Everything sells it seems… and I mean everything.

  9. 3b says:

    Californ remember I am not the one disparaging other states school systems. Just saying.

  10. 3b says:

    My wife s law office is seeing lots of deals falling through and when they do get done lots of seller concessions.

  11. Californicator says:

    8:39 I speak from experience you speak out of your ass.

  12. 3b says:

    Pumps It looks like you are off your meds again not that it matters. I never said good schools don’t matter. I do say Blue ribbon is over rated and they are particularly at the high school level. You need to actually put a kid through the system or at least have one in the system before you are qualified to give an opinion. My kids did well because we demanded it and would not let them slack off. You can sail through a blue ribbon h s today without much effort.

    The original topic remains the same. Many NJ parents think N J schools are the best and worth the high property taxes . Yet send their kids to state schools with the same kids from the same so called scrappy schools

  13. 3b says:

    Californ like I said to you once before I rarely engage you because you appear to be so arrogant and pompous and full of yourself . Perhaps that masks some unhappiness in your life.

    My point and it was a simple one was simply this I am not the one who disparages other states school system as referenced back to late last weeks post. I hope on your year off to get rid of your Dad bod you might also discover why you are such a disagreeable and unlikable individual. I will go back to not engaging with you again. Two and done.

  14. Pumpkinator Smasher says:

    Come on people, if you are talking about florida than you got to talk about “Florida Man”.

    Just do a search on that meme, you are going to be laughing till midnite.

    Mike S says:
    May 6, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    I have some family which lives in non tourist Florida. I gotta say I am very glad I grew up and went to school in NJ.
    All have kids before marriage, some in drugs, etc.

  15. Californicator says:

    8:59 I am contemptible…..I don’t need your fake internet friendship fruitcake…

  16. 3b says:

    Oh it was never a friendship just being civil. Take your meds and hit the treadmill cupcake.

  17. Californicator says:

    Now listen here Pendejo……

  18. D-FENS says:

    This could be a big deal.


    Sweeney is the highest ranking Democrat in the State legislature…wanted the Governor’s seat…only to see it bought by Murphy. NJEA (who strongly supported Murphy) actually endorsed Sweeney’s Republican challenger in the most recent election and spend a RECORD amount of money in an attempt defeat him.

  19. LurksMcGee says:


    In regards to your wife’s law office seeing deals fall through, are they categorized?

    As in, fail due to:

    -Buyer finances (mortgage not approved/not enough money to the table)
    -Seller concessions

    I’m curious to know the price points of the deals that fall through as well. Like 300k-500k % fails vs 500k – 700k % fails 700k+ % fails. I also assume its first time buyer fails as a higher percentage as a given. I’d also how many are the result of foreclosures falling off some credit reports and people jumping back into the market (and failing to correct mistakes).

  20. nwnj says:

    I think the njea story is a powder keg. If they start uncovering systemic coverups it will explode. Looks like njea could also regret going all out against Sweeney. Amateur mistake, don’t they know it’s best to buy both sides?

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps doesn’t take any meds…as far as he knows. OTOH, when he eats all of his apple sauce he likes to sit on his front steps and watch the cars whiz by, while jubilantly saying, “zoom zoom! Zoom Zoom! ZOOM ZOOM!!

    Pumps It looks like you are off your meds again not that it matters.

  22. 3b says:

    Mortgages not approved first inspection issues second. Other deals get done but with significant seller concessions not reflected in the final sales price. Price points 300 to 500k mainly but at other price points as well. Small part of her Firms business but could be reflective of what is going on out there in Bergen Co.

  23. D-FENS says:


    JERSEY CITY, N.J. — The proposed removal of a statue in New Jersey honoring victims of a 1940 Soviet massacre of Poles has sparked a cross-Atlantic war of words, with a Polish senator decrying the move and Jersey City’s mayor calling that man an anti-Semite with no moral authority.

    The memorial commemorates the Katyn massacre of tens of thousands of Polish officers with shots to the back of the head. The bronze statue depicts a Polish soldier gagged, bound and impaled in the back with a bayonet. It stands on a granite base containing soil from the Katyn Forest, where many victims were buried on the western edge of Russia.

    Created by Polish-American monument sculptor Andrzej Pitynski, the statue has been a fixture since 1991 at Exchange Place in Jersey City just across the Hudson River from New York City.

    The memorial will be moved for a renovation of the plaza where it stands, The Jersey Journal reported. The head of the group organizing the renovation has called the statue “gruesome” and has said he prefers that it get a new home.

  24. Trick says:

    House up the block lasted 3 days and sold for list, one that was listed after it last no more the a week.

  25. Trick says:

    They are fixing-up the foreclosure 3 doors down, course to see what they list it for.

  26. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I think the njea story is a powder keg. If they start uncovering systemic coverups it will explode. Looks like njea could also regret going all out against Sweeney. Amateur mistake, don’t they know it’s best to buy both sides?

    Doubtful. These are low level players who are dumb enough to say things like that to someone they just met. The people who are full time NJEA and collecting salaries north of half a million make sure they don’t do anything illegal. They are rife with all kinds of conflicts of interest but nothing illegal. And you’ll never hear them even make a public statement. They are like Paulie in Goodfellas. They just sit around and collect money and talk to no one.

  27. LurksMcGee says:

    Yeah, the banks held on to a significant amount of foreclosures and trickled them out for timing like this.

    Sidenote: the in-laws sold got an offer within a week for the townhome in crappy north philly. Selling at list (5k less than they bought in 2008) and adding seller concessions.

    The way they got a bite within 5 days tells me they could have at LEAST got 10-15k more by July (if they could wait). Then again, the SIL appendix ruptured on Thursday, so I guess they’re better off without the housing headache.

  28. grim says:

    People forget, Russia denied that Katyn took place for 60 years.

    22,000 people marched into a forest and systematically exterminated. 22,000 prisoners disappeared overnight. One of the single largest mass-murders that has ever taken place. This was not a military battle, an uprising. They were bound, gagged, marched into place so their dead bodies would stack into the graves.

    Russia denied that they exterminated 22,000 Poles, Jews, and Ukrainians. Military officers, political figures, leaders, intelligentsia. They marched prisoners, from their death camps, into the forest where they killed them and buried them in secret pits. They denied this for 60 years. It’s like denying the Holocaust took place, for 60 years.

    The statue was erected in the early 1990s. Russia still did not admit. When the statue went up, it was a clear notice to Russia.


    America made a statement to Russia, that it stood with it’s ally. Russia did not admit to the massacre at Katyn for 20 more years. This statue was key to Russia admitting to Katyn.

    This statue has ever-increasing importance in todays geopolitical climate with Russia.

    Fulup clearly doesn’t understand the symbolism, what it means, why it was erected, and why it is important today. There were no Poles or Jews at Katyn, there were only brothers who died together.

  29. grim says:

    Baruch Steinberg, Chief Rabbi of the Polish Army, was executed at Katyn, the chief religious leader of the more than 100,000 Jewish soldiers in the Polish National Army. He was systematically targeted to be executed, because he, like the others murdered at Katyn, were leaders. Russia wanted to destroy all potential Polish national leadership to prevent any chance at uprising, from Pole or Jew.

    Rabbi Steinberg organized services during his sentence at the Russian Gulag. His services were attended by both Jews and Catholic Poles. He was known for preaching for the unity of Polish people, regardless of religion. When they were hauled off to their deaths, the Rabbis and Priests were taken at the same time.

    Perhaps Fulup can learn from Rabbi Sternberg.

  30. 3b says:

    Plus Stalin also wanted to eliminate any opposition to the Soviet take over of Poland at the end of the war. Of course Churchill betrayed Poland.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Molina left Saturday’s game against the Chicago Cubs after being hit when Kris Bryant tipped a 102 mph pitch from reliever Jordan Hicks.
    Bengie Molina, also a former catcher in the majors and Yadier’s older brother, said the surgery lasted 45 minutes. He said doctors were able to save both of Molina’s testicles.

    ST. LOUIS — Mike Matheny knows all too well the usual aches and pains associated with catching in the major leagues.

    That experience told the St. Louis Cardinals manager that the pain Yadier Molina was in after he was hit in the groin by a foul tip on Saturday was not normal.

    Matheny’s intuition proved correct later that night, when Molina underwent surgery for what the team called a “pelvic injury with traumatic hematoma.” The eight-time All-Star was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Sunday, and he’s expected to miss at least four weeks with the injury.

    “It’s like nothing you’ve ever felt,” said Matheny, who was a catcher during his 13-year playing career. “You’re always just hoping it’s one of those that just takes a couple of minutes, then it’s manageable. But you could see that was a different level.”

    Molina left Saturday’s game against the Chicago Cubs after being hit when Kris Bryant tipped a 102 mph pitch from reliever Jordan Hicks. Molina immediately fell to the ground and was replaced by Francisco Pena, who was also in the starting lineup for the Cardinals a day later against the Cubs.

    Bengie Molina, also a former catcher in the majors and Yadier’s older brother, said the surgery lasted 45 minutes. He said doctors were able to save both of Molina’s testicles.

    The elder Molina visited his brother after he was released from the hospital Sunday morning and was encouraged by how he looked.

    “I was expecting him to come in a wheelchair or [need] a little help,” Bengie Molina said. “So I went over to the door, and when I saw him, he was walking.”

    The 35-year-old Yadier Molina is hitting .272 with six home runs and 17 RBIs this season. He was replaced on the active roster by catcher Carson Kelly, who was called up from Triple-A Memphis on Sunday.

    St. Louis President John Mozeliak said Molina was told by doctors to rest for the next week before slowing starting to work his way back into shape.

    “Really, it’s just going to be just take each day as it comes,” Mozeliak said. “But hopefully, it’s not too long.”

    Both Mozeliak and Matheny joked about Molina’s competitiveness and what a difficult time doctors are likely to have keeping the eight-time Gold Glove winner from doing too much too soon during his recovery.

    “He always feels bad that he’s not able to be here,” Matheny said. “That’s just how he’s wired.”

  32. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^ Slow-mo. I figured he got it on the bounce (which may have also happened), but he took a direct shot first. Ouch.


  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I wonder if the direct shot dislodged the jewels and the bounce is what did him in?

  34. chicagofinance says:

    Where is Nom?


    New Trust Structuring- SALTy SLATs

    Clients facing significant SALT limitations, including loss of property tax deductions, might consider a non-grantor variant of the traditional SLAT, referred to as a “SALTy SLAT.” That non-grantor trust may own the client’s homes multiplying the $10,000 SALT deductions among several “new” taxpayers (that is, the non-grantor trusts). This planning might proceed as follows:

  35. No One says:

    I have heard of catchers cups shattering. I’d think the MLB would have better quality cups that could stop this. Wonder if he decided not to wear one.

  36. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    “Jeff Bezos was educated at a public high school in Miami.”

    An amazing study was done a few years back that proved that the majority of disgustingly successful people barely graduated high school. Many were college dropouts as well. Why? High academic performers do not take risks. Academia teaches there is only one right answer. There is no risk in studying hard enough to always know the right answer. The high school dropout is forced to survive and adapt. They’ve been figuring out how to get by for years. Their whole life has been based on correctly valuing risk.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    Difficult to watch in slow motion. Difficult to watch at all. No cup? No protection? Chr1st!

  38. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    As for the statue in Chilltown. I absolutely love that statue. The story behind it makes it even more intriguing. This whole progressive movement to remove all signs of evil doers stinks of the Taliban. It is elitism at it’s worst. And those hell-bent on erasing history are doomed to repeat it. They should leave relics of the Third Reich standing so people can tell their children of the mistakes of the past. Same with General Lee or Custer. Life is not squeaky clean. Sometimes it’s incredibly ugly. I can’t wait for the pussification trend to end already. Enough’s enough.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d walk by that statue on the way to work. I didn’t know what it represented until I did a search on it. Perhaps the liberals would endorse a statue of a transgender figure or Barry Soetoro.

  40. grim says:

    I bet Mack Cali is being funded by Russians.

  41. 3b says:

    There are monuments to British colonial rule in many towns and villages all over the Republic of Ireland. One particularly obnoxious one was blown up 50 odd years ago and that one should have been removed it was massive and blocked sun light. Another massive one of Queen Victoria was removed from the front lawn of the Irish Parliament this was massive. The Irish government asked the British government if they wanted it they declined, but Australia took it. They did not want the one of her husband so he is hanging out in the back of the building now. But most of the monuments are still there. No one pays much attention to them and there are no efforts to preserve them which is fine. But the English really did like their monuments!!

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “Stocks are reasonably priced, and could return 7% a year for the next decade, says Evercore’s John Apruzzese.”

    Who Says This Market Is Overpriced? – Barron’s

  43. chicagofinance says:

    One building is 20 years old and in good shape. The middle school is fair. The elementary school is falling apart. Obviously the administration build is absolutely plush.

    The problem is that the infrastructure of the school system is for 1,500 and we are at sub-1,000 levels. So there is a chronic expectation to cut staff and downsize to two buildings. It may reverse itself….. there is a severe dip in the population of 7-10 year olds, either coincident with the recession and aftermath, or the dysfunction real estate market that prevented step-up buyers. No starter homes in the district.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    May 7, 2018 at 8:03 am
    Chi fi, is Colt’s neck’s building bad as well? Whenever I drive by it, it looks decent from the outside. Looks can be deceiving though.

  44. 3b says:

    Chgo or perhaps later marriage and less children?

  45. Californicator says:

    Lib, those statues were all erected during the Jim Crow era so the Southern authorities could show the “blacks” who was in charge. losers In war don’t get monuments.

  46. Yo! says:

    The 2014-15 enrollment in the district was 950 students, which is a loss of 672 students (-41.4%) since 2005-06.


    That enrollment decline is astonishing. Appears Colts Neck has appealed to young families 10 years ago – but no longer. How does one commute between Colts Neck and New York City?

    Why not rezone to throw open Colts Neck to multifamily developers?

  47. 3b says:

    Yo go to Harrison on a nice day during the weekend or Jersey city. Parents writhe strollers or toddlers or older all out and about.

  48. Californicator says:

    4:06 chifi has been a renter there for ten years,
    When 3B cries he sheds virgin tears.
    Joyce hates the cops and Libtard’s cheap,
    We sow what we sow when we reap wut we reap.

  49. Yo! says:

    Harrison population hitting all-time highs. In 2016, surpassed 1920 levels, and will be strong new records every year for next several years. Harrison public school enrollment is stable.

    The biggest problem with N.J. suburbs today is they can’t bring themselves to issue residential building permits. Irreversible decline is their future.

    What is going on with Colts Neck home prices?

  50. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:


    I still think all statues are historical and should be used as valuable lessons of the past. Only the thin skinned would be offended. If I lived in Charlottesville, I would put an African robe over the statue and would erect a plaque explaining the statues existence. Then again, I was raised by the motto sticks and stones. Today, it’s sticks and stones may break my bones but words are cause for a huge lawsuit and a stint in juvy where you really learn about bullying. Heck, I grew up as Stu the Jew and Shmooale the whale. Big effin’ deal.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Right on queue, just like the Pumpkin had predicted 5 years ago. It’s all coming together.

    Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    From their parents’ basements to dream homes: Millennials are skipping starter houses


  52. D-FENS says:

    Word up

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    On the topic of Colts Neck, it will reverse itself in time when the current owners move and allow for families with kids to come in. People currently living there have raised their kids and have no intentions of moving. They are wealthy and people are living a lot longer.

    This push of 30 being the new 20 really messed up the housing market. Everything got pushed back by 10 years from what used to be the norm. Set the housing market back a decade.

    When are the magnificent job creators going to start creating some good jobs for the majority of the population…they are holding back the housing market and economy too. They have no idea of the consequences of keeping labor costs down too much in the name of profit expansion. Ultra low wages are just as bad for economic system as ultra high wages….that’s the problem with capitalism, no balance, it always sways to one side to the extreme. Wages are either too high, or too low…you never get that perfect balance zone.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It certainly has the look of no cup, but I just can’t imagine it. I played wood bat baseball until my mid 40’s and would never think of playing any position without a cup. You never know where and errant throw will land when you’re running the bases, for example. The only major league player I ever even heard of not wearing a cup was Carl Crawford, and he played left field.

    Difficult to watch in slow motion. Difficult to watch at all. No cup? No protection? Chr1st!

  55. Californicator says:

    6:09 that’s an admirable attitude, but maybe the folks who are still a little pissed off about the whole enslavement thing feel differently.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m surprised at this. A lot of players don’t wear cups.


    Makes me think of Evel Knievel’s urging to spend as much money on safety equipment as you can afford. He went on to say, “But if you have a $2 head, go ahead and put it in a $2 helmet.”

  57. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Beavis: “Heh-heh! He said erected!”

    Lib, those statues were all erected during the Jim Crow era so the Southern authorities could show the “blacks” who was in charge. losers In war don’t get monuments.

  58. Yo! says:

    5:21 pm – Renting Colts Neck real estate is a smarter idea than owning it. McMansion suburbs with 90 minute commutes to New York City won’t see values rise for a long time – as property taxes and maintenance rise.

  59. chicagofinance says:

    I hate to validate his point, but keeping it real….

    Yo! that survey is excellent, and thank you, I had forgotten it.

    However, the reality was not as dire as predicted……
    see Pre-K and K…… bear in mind that many student come online in First Grade, so the numbers will be much higher….

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 7, 2018 at 6:39 pm
    On the topic of Colts Neck, it will reverse itself in time when the current owners move and allow for families with kids to come in. People currently living there have raised their kids and have no intentions of moving. They are wealthy and people are living a lot longer.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    Insular community….they want it that way……

    Property taxes are extremely low considering what is there……

    Yo! says:
    May 7, 2018 at 4:06 pm
    Why not rezone to throw open Colts Neck to multifamily developers?

  61. Yo! says:

    7:12 “Property taxes are extremely low considering what is there..”

    Only in N.J. are $15,000 property taxes viewed as extremely low. What is so great about Colts Neck? McMansions, a Navy weapons depot, and some farms?

    Interesting that Colts Neck residents fine with nuclear weapons in town but don’t want multifamily housing.

  62. Yo! says:

    On the topic of Mack Cali and the Jersey City statue: CLI stock is approaching an all-time, 24-year low. New Jersey office buildings with New Jersey people running the company is a recipe for disaster. Can’t compete with New York City or West Coast (better real estate, better people).

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Colts Neck is a beautiful town. For the size of the house and property, your taxes would be higher in “it” locations in other states. Don’t be so quick to write off some of these locations, they will be fine long term.

  64. 3b says:

    And californ is just a self absorbed bore.

  65. 3b says:

    So 360k is a luxury home in Long Island?
    And pumps which is it one minute you are complaining about low salaries messing up the housing market then you post an article about millenials skipping straight to luxury houses.

  66. 3b says:

    Yo I amazed at how Harrison has grown in less then a year. There seems to be no let up.. I am down fairly often and am just amazed.

  67. Yo! says:


    Harrison like other Hudson County municipalities knows how to issue building permits, and in current environment multifamily developers with building permits can get construction loans to build.

    In Monmouth County, the population declined in 2017 for the first time since reliable stats have been kept. Record keeping only began in 1790 but it could the first population decline in what is today Monmouth County in the history of human settlement of the area dating back thousands of years.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:


    What’s happens if New Brunswick becomes a solid mid tier city with the continued investment there? I wouldn’t write off any of the shore, it’s far too early for that.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Elon Musk scoops up $10 million in Tesla stock – Fox News

  70. 3b says:

    Yo I have some interests down there so am there a couple of times a month. I have a friend who lives in Marlboro who says prices are stagnant in his town and commute is tough.

  71. grim says:

    Interesting that Colts Neck residents fine with nuclear weapons in town but don’t want multifamily housing.

    Disappointed that Wayne no longer has nuclear tipped NIKE anti-ballistic missiles. The rocket pads were behind Gary’s on 23, the radar was on the cliff at the intersection of Alps and Ratzer.

    Remember the game Missile Command?


  72. grim says:

    Franklin Lakes had missiles, as did Summit.

    So clearly, Ajax made you PRIME.

    Middletown had ’em too, but those guys damn near took out half of Jersey when they dropped one, and it went off.

  73. Hold my beer says:


    He just resigned. Ibet he heads to rehab next.

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