June MarketNews

From the Otteau Group:

June MarketNews

Home sales in New Jersey increased by 2% in the month of May compared to the same month last year, recording more than 12,200 purchase contracts in a single-month, setting an all-time record. As a result, the number of year-to-date purchase contracts (January-May) in New Jersey is up marginally by 1%, or roughly 600 contracts. Statewide, the amount of housing supply remains tight, which continues to stifle the amount of home sales occurring. This is especially true for entry-level homes priced below $400,000 where there is only 3 months of supply.

While the number of year-to-date home sales has increased by 1% overall, that is not the case for all price ranges. Due to the aforementioned supply shortage of entry-level priced homes (below $400,000), contract activity has declined by 0.4% in response to a 14% year-to-date drop in inventory. Also recording a 2.2% decline, are contract sales for homes priced between $1-Million to $2.5-Million for which unsold inventory has also experienced a 3% decline. At the opposite end of the spectrum, contract activity for luxury priced homes over $2.5-Million has increased by an impressive 22%, which is somewhat misleading, given the smaller sample size of sales within this price point.

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, inventory remains restricted, which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of homes being offered for sale today in New Jersey has fallen to its lowest point since 2005, having declined by 2,500 (-6%) over the past year. This is also 42% less than the amount of homes (31,000 fewer) on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to just 3.5 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago, when it was 3.8 months.

Currently, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Middlesex County has the strongest market conditions in the state with just 2.6 months of supply, followed by Essex, Union, Passaic, Monmouth, Somerset, Hudson, Camden, Burlington, Bergen & Warren Counties, which all have fewer than 3.3 months of supply. The counties with the largest amount of unsold inventory (5 months or greater) are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cape May (5.1), Atlantic (5.7), Cumberland (5.9) and Salem (6.8), however, these counties have shown vast improvement and are exhibiting strengthening conditions.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to June MarketNews

  1. grim says:

    Just listened to the Trump Air Force One prank call. Expected it to be a full on disaster.

    What I’m most surprised about, is how cordial Trump is with the fake Bob Menendez, they appear to have a relatively civil conversation, Trump fairly well spoken. He even congratulates Menendez on the corruption case being thrown out.

    Also, fairly impressed that John Melendez (aka Stuttering John) was able to pull it off, he stumbled a little bit, but put on a fairly believable performance.

    I know impersonation of a law enforcement officer is illegal, not sure about public officials. Melendez could be in for a world of hurt.

    All the back and forth rhetoric between both parties not being able to work with the other side, they way this conversation played back, it didn’t seem like there was any kind of animosity, push back, etc from the president’s side. The fact that he was willing to take a completely unannounced call from Menendez on Air Force One is pretty open minded I think.

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you tripled the salaries of sociology professors they’d be a lot less radical.

  3. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A light bulb went on for me today. My wife asked me about a week ago why so many Republicans are “retiring”. I told her that some knew they were no longer electable, some maybe want to cash in as cable news personalities, some might want lucrative lobbying positions, etc.

    Today I was watching something about the Russia/Mueller investigation and Mitch McConnell’s name was brought up. The host said he would probably have his value raised pretty soon with the new SCOTUS nominee. The other person said, “Yeah, but have you ever heard him say anything about this issue?” Holy shit! There are elected officials in Congress who, I think, are between a rock and a hard place. They’re getting paid and now they are getting squeezed while you never know where Trump will shine his media flashlight. Do what the money wants, do what Trump wants, or get out. Those are their choices.

  4. leftwing says:

    Wish Otteau got more granular on the high end. $1.0m to 2.5m is a very large spread.

    Maybe $1.0m to $1.5m, then 1.5-2.0, and finally 2.0-2.5….

    Big difference between a $1.1m and $2.4m purchase, especially depending on the town….

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Also if it’s on a highway or not.

    Big difference between a $1.1m and $2.4m purchase, especially depending on the town….

  6. 30 year realtor says:

    Over 1M is a tough sell in North Jersey. In some towns the high end is lower than 1M and in those towns over $800,000 may be where sales become difficult. There is a trend away from homes over 4000 GLA. The farther the commuting distance from NYC the more impact on value and available buyer pool.

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    30 year – Even as I was wrong 6 years ago, do you have any opinion on a “top down crush” where a scramble to sell houses in the $800K – $1M range adversely affects the overall market in NJ?

  8. Yo! says:

    In the last 25 years, New York City added 1,300,000 people. Hundreds of thousands of households want more space in suburbs with easy commutes to the city. This will propel houses in the $250,000 to $1,000,000 range higher and higher. At the same time, obese McMansions with 90-120 commutes will suffer value declines.

  9. 3b says:

    Yo Debate as. To say the least.

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My propane tank just ran out. I’m trying this right now. I’m going with 500 degrees…convection.

    Grim says:
    March 18, 2017 at 10:14 am
    I do most steaks this way – preheat oven to 500 – quick two minute blistering sear on a hot skillet then right into the oven until you hit desired doneness.

    Then a big pat of butter in the skillet to brown, and baste the steak a few times with spoon.

    Rest for 10 – eat.

    Chef from a fancy NY steakhouse said there is no better way.

    I don’t even bother with the grill for steaks anymore.

    Grim says:
    March 18, 2017 at 10:15 am
    Regarding sear temperature- if you are doing it right you will hear the steak scream.

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Steaks turned out great, but I smoked the kitchen up like crazy. Vent fan on high, no smoke alarms, but it was obvious I’ve never had that oven up to 500 degrees, except maybe when I put it on self clean 18 months ago.

  12. Hold my beer says:


    Try ghee next time. It’s clarified butter with a smoke point of 450. Butter smokes at 350. You can get in jars in the oil section of most grocery stores.

  13. NJCoast says:

    It keeps getting crazier here at the shore. Oceanfront house in Deal just traded for $19,500,000. Three houses on the ocean block in the Allenhurst sold in the $3.5-4.5 million range and all the new owners took them down to the outside studs and spent upwards of 3 million to renovate.$11,800,000 for an oceanfront LOT. All construction had to stop at the end of today for the summer moratorium. One house had about 50 workman.

  14. Chicago says:

    Ghee? You may as well sign up for an appointment with you cardiologist too.

    Hold my beer says:
    June 30, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    Try ghee next time. It’s clarified butter with a smoke point of 450. Butter smokes at 350. You can get in jars in the oil section of most grocery stores.

  15. Chicago says:


  16. Hold my beer says:

    Fried eggs are delicious in ghee. Although nothing surpasses Duck fat

  17. Ex-Essex says:

    Deal boasts a significant population of Orthodox Sephardic Jews, mainly of Syrian extraction. In the 2000 Census, 16.4% of Deal residents identified as being of Syrian heritage, the greatest percentage of Syrian Americans in any municipality in the country.[19] As much as 80% of Deal’s population are Sephardi Jews, and the population swells to over 6,000 during the summer, many of them Syrian Jews.[20][21]

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I just came back home after hours out having drinks with a friend. My house still smells like steak. Not really a bad thing, I guess.

  19. grim says:

    So let me get this straight, Murphy buckles to Sweeney, loses the budget battle, accepts the legislatures terms?

  20. D-FENS says:

    Rumor has it that the legislature had enough votes to override Murphy’s veto.

    Sweeney runs Jersey now.

  21. grim says:

    One Term Murphy

  22. Yo! says:

    Watching some YouTube videos of Murphy speeches. Seems he wants to make N.J. like Massachusetts. But Massachusetts is run efficiently. Lower income and property taxes. In the 1990s, most county governments voted themselves out of existence, and voters outlawed rent control in a referendum. None of this is achievable in N.J.

  23. grim says:

    Wayne coming in #9 with +1,186

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    So, individuals and businesses will pay more taxes to pay for the 10% increase in spending. You have my vote Murphy (said a m0ron in the corner)!

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He is the only adult in politics right now. He compromised for the greater good. It’s called sucking it up and getting stuff done. Sweeney needs to get the hell out. Way too much power. His time will come.

    grim says:
    July 1, 2018 at 6:38 am
    So let me get this straight, Murphy buckles to Sweeney, loses the budget battle, accepts the legislatures terms?

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tell that to the people on this board that they think Wayne is dead. Seems to be doing just fine. I’m part of that number, I moved to Wayne during this period.

    grim says:
    July 1, 2018 at 7:59 am
    Wayne coming in #9 with +1,186

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If they would just let Murphy put his plan in place, they would see that it’s a good long term plan. He def wants to take us in the same direction as Massachusetts.

    Yo! says:
    July 1, 2018 at 7:56 am
    Watching some YouTube videos of Murphy speeches. Seems he wants to make N.J. like Massachusetts. But Massachusetts is run efficiently. Lower income and property taxes. In the 1990s, most county governments voted themselves out of existence, and voters outlawed rent control in a referendum. None of this is achievable in N.J.

  28. 1987 Condo says:

    Pay attention folks, he said this:

    “Murphy said he spoke with Brown about two months ago and told him that New Jersey aspires to be “the California of the East Coast.””

    We are on the way to being California without the good weather!

    My son lives and works in downtown San Fran. Everyday he has to step over the needles, human waste and homeless folks. There is an app to avoid the tent cities and track human waste flows.


  29. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Price to pay for that beautiful weather. Very attractive to the homeless.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think it’s inevitable that nj will become a tech hub leader. There is a reason Newark made the top 20 amazon list. Writing is on the wall.

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’ve never said that. Highway livin’ will always be popular with certain types.

    Tell that to the people on this board that they think Wayne is dead.

  32. NJCoast says:

    For those thinking of buying one of the new condos going up in Asbury Park where a 1 bedroom starts at $850,0000. You might want to read the comments from the council meeting.
    Below is a summation of the public comments:

    “By 8 p.m. on Saturday evenings the streets are tough,” she said. “It is really impacting or could impact greatly the individuals who want to eat at a restaurant early and walk around and do some shopping. We are closing by 8 p.m. because it’s really uncomfortable.”

    “Starting at 2 a.m., even on weekends in the winter, the screaming, the yelling, the singing, the laughing, the bottles being broken, is what wakes us up,” the 11 year long resident said. “In terms of quality of life I encourage the council to stay on top of this.

    Heaven Art & Antiques owner Malcolm Navias said the drunk and disorderly conduct is beginning as early at 3 p.m. and results in store owners regular finding of feces and smashed windows.

    “It’s really a disgrace,” the Cookman Avenue store and art gallery owner said. “It is really disrupting to those who are coming around to shop. I’m actually scared to stay open late; I don’t think it’s safe for me or our my customers.

    Environments Shade and Tree Commission Chair Tom Pivinski said the garden at Cookman and Main has become a ‘fornication spot because we get a lot of condoms there.’

    Gene Mignola, who lives and works on Cookman Avenue, said during morning walks with his dog he is often met by vomit along the street.

    And, ShowRoom owner Mike Sodano said they are using his vestibule as a toilet and suggested a police officer be stationed at every block at closing time.

    But hey…Asbury Park has won the NJ Sea Grant Consortium’s Favorite Monmouth County Beach accolade!

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I live in West Roxbury, a very, very suburban looking section of Boston. Last night I was out with a friend at a restaurant an even mile away. I just had my wife drop me off and I walked home since it was so nice out. Holy crap, is this part of Boston crazy EMPTY at midnight on a Saturday! Totally weird to see none of the downtown parallel parking spots taken, Dunkin’ Donuts closed, the giant supermarket dark. The restaurant had only two guys sitting at the bar when I left also. I think Wayne probably has more nightlife than where I live.

  34. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    It’s not the weather. It’s the fact that they have dozens of programs supporting them.

  35. No One says:

    Tax individuals more or corporations more in overtaxed, overspending NJ? Democrats say “why not both?”. After all, it takes at least a year or two to plan a move out of state.

  36. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think the real game is finding out if the Feds bail out Illinois. If they do, New Jersey will be “Game on!”. CALPERS is too big for anyone to help. There will be haircuts.

  37. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Central A/C has been cranking all day….and my house still smells like steak. I made two New York Strip steaks last night and I realized they were too big for either my wife or I to finish, so we split one. I just had a few cold slices of the other one, perfect!!! I love when a steak doesn’t need any salt or pepper because the chef has already done their job. That would be me…with a little help from grim.

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, Extra virgin olive oil, red wine vinegar, Kosher salt. Marinated for 90 minutes or less.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:


    The homeless have always been attracted to places like California due to the weather. If you are going to be homeless, why would you pick anywhere else?

  40. PumpkinFace says:

    There are other warm weather states dumbass.

  41. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It’s 95 at my place in Boston. What is it, like 150 in Wayne?

  42. Hold my beer says:


    Temperature or speed limit?

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:


  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My wife can’t decide if she likes the Central A/C or the walk-in pantry best at our new place. My daughters love the extra bathrooms and being able to get WiFi in their bedroom. At our old place, even though it was only 900 square feet, my daughters had trouble getting WiFi in their bedroom because the signal from my router had to go through so many brick walls. My favorites of our new place is being able to back the car right up to the mud room so that all of the groceries go right into the kitchen 10 feet away as well as the Weber gas grill and flood lights also right off the mud room.

    What I’m pissed about is that pot did not go on sale legally today like it was supposed to. They’re still certifying the labs that will certify the dealers retail outlets.

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I can’t wait until college students are just cruising down the streets of Boston smoking pot. New Jersey will be sending their little pot head kids here for a long, long, time with their pockets lined with cash. CT, RI, and VT are sure to suffer economically.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Text message from my third floor tenant. This is who leaving nj…people with not much money trying to raise a family.

    How strong is the rental market…tenants filling the rental with friends on the way out.

    “Hey Mike, I want to Let you know that hopefully the end of the month we’ll be finally making our move to Florida. We are going down there today until Wednesday to look at homes down there and start the process of buying I’ll give you an update on Wednesday the 4th when we come back. In the meantime I’ll leave the rent check downstairs today in the same spot.

    My wife has a friend from my sons school who lives in the area and was telling my wife that she would be interested in renting the place when we move out”

  47. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    There’s a difference between attracting homeless and creating it. San Francisco creates it and attracts it with their insane programs. You have to learn that there are multiple causes to each problem. Seattle’s weather sucks and they have a huge homeless population.

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Wouldn’t it be great if Clifton became a sanctuary city?

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    5PM, finally down to 90 here. Central A/C is the best!

  50. 3b says:

    Two incomes 100k each equal 200k household. Just saying 200k to live in a high tax crumbling state.

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My wife and I have been recently debating New York vs. Vermont, vs. Wisconsin extra sharp cheddar. Yeah, we’re old, we have nothing better to do. Personally, I think Wisconsin has the least flavor, but man oh man, it certainly worked out tonight. Sunnyside eggs, over barely reheated NY strip, with Wisconsin cheddar not even quite melted on top of the steak slices, over buttered (but not spread) toast. Wonderful!

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:
  53. Hold my beer says:


    Which one causes the best farts?

  54. Hold my beer says:

    The snowflakes are upset that trump jr posted a video of his 6 year old son practicing archery. And the left wonders why they can only win on the coasts.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are coming though, your opinion doesn’t matter.

    Btw, Wayne attracting 200,000 income at at top 10 in the state rate. Like i said, appreciation will come. Over 1,000 families making 200k or more said so.

    3b says:
    July 1, 2018 at 5:12 pm
    Two incomes 100k each equal 200k household. Just saying 200k to live in a high tax crumbling state.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Follow the data if you don’t believe me. Wayne positioned right no matter how much you guys hate it.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Big decision on my part..dump 100,000-150,000 into backyard with top of the line landscaping and pool, or just live with lower taxes and more of a forest type backyard.

  58. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps why not buy a ups store or a sub franchise instead?

    I have a relative who spent 50k doing a patio and landscaping to their postage size lot in California. Added zero value on the resale

    I also knew someone who bragged about his 30k pool and landscaping (was south jersey in the 90’s) paid for with a home equity loan. His and his wife’s cars both died within days of each other and he was already tapped out replacing the first one.

  59. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Are you installing Bellagio fountains in it for that price?

  60. Bystander says:

    Blump is delusional as usual. 200k income for a household is not that impressive. That means perhaps a 600K house when you factor in the large tax bill, health, utilities daycare, cars, retirement, student loan debt etc, etc, etc. Blumpy the bagholder thinks he will unload his home on one of these couples. Why? Wage inflation in a few years. Please go spend $150k on pool. It is a great idea with all the “rich” (wink, wink) 200k households moving in.

  61. Ex-Essex says:

    When we were in the $200k range it was a $350k house that literally cost as much as a $750k house in the Golden State. Property taxes baby…. they is a killa.

  62. Ex-Essex says:

    Awwww Snap….Taking his talents to LA! LeBron James ‘agrees to join Los Angeles Lakers on a four-year contract for $154MILLION’ after choosing to leave Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I like you and understand your plight, change your bias towards me.

    Listen, northern nj has always been treated like a disease by New Yorkers. Times have changed for the people willing to read the writing on the wall.

    You are on point, no attack on you.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just wrong about northern nj and how lucrative this dirt really is.

  65. Hold my beer says:

    Probably MPs,

    Do you have enough land to put in a 1/4 acre pond or larger? That would be cool to have your own koi pond or personal fishing pond

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Forest back yard and highway front yard? You’re on the long road to losing big, just pick how you want to lose.

    Big decision on my part..dump 100,000-150,000 into backyard with top of the line landscaping and pool, or just live with lower taxes and more of a forest type backyard.

  67. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Completely by accident, Sex and the City is on my TV right now. Cynthia Nixon looks like my hockey-player ex-girlfriend from Rutgers.

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    With my heritage and hers, we would have had very, very, Polish kids. Dodged that bullet.

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