So what’s this mean for Jersey?

From Bloomberg:

Manhattan Homebuyers Demand Bargains, Walk Away—Anything But Overpay

In his hunt for an apartment on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Hal Walker found the perfect one-bedroom in an Art Deco building across from Central Park. It had languished on the market for almost six months.

Walker bid $30,000 below the $865,000 asking price, then refused the seller’s counteroffer. Yet he’s moving in next week.

“Would you lose sleep tonight if you lost this apartment?” Walker recalled his broker asking. “I said no.”

Manhattan homebuyers are getting bolder these days, demanding bargains or walking away from deals in a market where inventory is swelling. In the three months through June, purchases fell 17 percent from a year earlier to 2,629, according to a report Tuesday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. That was the lowest tally for a second quarter since 2009, when the global recession chilled deals.

Of the sales that were completed in the quarter, 54 percent were for less than the asking price. Another 37 percent of transactions closed at the asking price, but often that figure had already been reduced. Combined, the share of purchases without a premium was the biggest since the end of 2012.

“It’s about perception — that the market went way up, and it went way up real fast, and it’s not happening anymore, and I am not going to be the fool who gets burned by overpaying,” said Steven James, Douglas Elliman’s chief executive officer for New York City. Buyers “do believe that over time, the market will go up, but it’s not going up right now.”

The median price for all homes that changed hands in the quarter dropped 7.5 percent to $1.1 million, the second consecutive year-over-year decline, the firms said. There were 6,985 homes listed for sale at the end of June, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the most for a second quarter since 2011 as properties came to the market faster than buyers closed deals.

“‘We are in a price correction, there’s no doubt about that,” said Hall Willkie, co-president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens. “Buyers are very resistant to paying anything that isn’t justified.”

Price-sensitive shoppers are looking at recent sales within a building, not as a gauge for what to pay, but as a barometer for how much below that they should bid, Willkie said.

This entry was posted in Comp Killer, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to So what’s this mean for Jersey?

  1. Hold my beer says:

    Of course manhattan is softening. All the cool people are moving to the burbs to spend 3 hours a day commuting.

  2. grim says:

    I mean, in context, this guy seems to be happy to buy a 1 bedroom for $835,000.

  3. D-FENS says:

    Commuting is for suckers.

  4. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Trump’s trade war could really slam N.J. companies and cost jobs here, top business group warns

    President Donald Trump’s trade policy could cost New Jersey companies $920 million in sales, according to a report by the nation’s largest business lobby.

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent $7 million on the 2016 elections to support Republicans, said the president’s tariffs on exports to Canada, Mexico, the European Union and China also could affect the 1.2 million employees in New Jersey whose jobs are dependent on trade.

    Most of the exports that would be affected — $711 million worth — go to Canada, and include herbicides as well as orange juice, which is brought to Port Newark from Brazil, mixed with sweeter domestic juice, and then shipped out.

    Affected exports to the European Union, $133 million, include beauty products.

    The report also said Trump’s tarriffs threaten $46 million in exports to China, and $30 million to Mexico.

  5. grim says:

    In counterpoint to my “tax the hell out of imports” comment – spoke to someone yesterday that said they were facing a 25% price increase on intermediate goods (circuit boards) from China starting on July 6th. They are facing a somewhat massive business crisis as they have significant order volume in the pipeline and can not adjust pricing to compensate. She pointed me to this: https://www.spin.com/2018/06/moog-music-trump-tariff-increase/

    I said, fine, bring it back onshore and populate boards here, you’ve done it before. The 25% tariff also applies to components, resistors, capacitors, ICs, etc etc. So, no way you can avoid it. In this case, there is no way to source domestically without incurring the same tariff.

  6. Hold my beer says:

    Grim

    Maybe that guy is from Arkansas and is happy to have escaped. Arkansas is incredibly boring and dull. I see why it produces such vile politicians. I wonder how the addiction and self harm rate in Arkansas compares to the rest of the US.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Commuting is for suckas… Hoboken is the place you oughta be.

  8. grim says:

    I’ve been to Harrison, Arkansas, the most racist place in the United States. It’s a white trash dump.

  9. Hold my beer says:

    I think Texarkana was established right on the border because people were so happy to have left Arkansas and entered Texas they couldn’t wait to start nesting. There is literally nothing for 40 miles on I-30 once you pass through Texarkana and enter Arkansas.

  10. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Manhattan real estate has worst second quarter since financial crisis

    Manhattan real estate had its worst second quarter since the financial crisis, with prices and sales dropping and inventory rising, according to a new report.

    Total sales in Manhattan fell 17 percent in the second quarter compared to a year ago, according a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and Consultants. The average sales price fell 5 percent to $2.1 million.

    Brokers blamed the decline partly on bad weather and other temporary factors. But analysts say the market is facing bigger pressures, from a huge pipeline of new condos to a dwindling number foreigner buyers, volatile stock markets and new tax changes that make New York less attractive.

    While Manhattan is still a prime market with plenty of demand, the cooling sales suggest that the sky-high prices of 2015 and 2016 still have further to fall to meet today’s more price-conscious buyers.

    “The market is resetting to a lower, more long-term level of activity,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

    One of the biggest problems is the glut of new condos under construction, especially in the luxury segment. The inventory of luxury apartments for sale jumped 10 percent in to its highest level for a second quarter in seven years. There is now a 16-month supply of luxury units, according to the report, and luxury apartments are sitting on the market an average of more than six months.

    Uncertainty around the economy and new tax law is also crimping sales. The new tax law limits federal deductions for state and local taxes and makes high-tax states like New York less attractive. While some forecasts say the change could slice 10 percent off the value of New York real estate, the ultimate impact is still unknown, Miller said.

    “Everyone is just dancing around the impacts right now,” he said. “I don’t think it will really be clear to people until they write that (tax) check next April.”

  11. 3b says:

    Bad weather? Wait until all the condos being built in lower Manhattan hit the market.

  12. grim says:

    Wait until all the condos being built in lower Manhattan hit the market.

    Adding new housing units and increasing density is the new normal, this will continue for a long, long time.

  13. grim says:

    $1.1 million for an expanded cape in Harding? Dated, old carpets, terrible kitchen. No thanks.

    https://www.nj.com/morris/index.ssf/2018/07/on_the_market_4-bedroom_home_in_new_vernon_for_11m.html

  14. 3b says:

    Agreed but it will add to inventory and put pressure on pricing. I am told that the top two floors of the old Irving Trust building at 1 wall st is going to have the most expensive asking price ever for a condo.

  15. Not Gremsmky says:

    Grim, what do these manufacturers and clients of yours expected.

    What happened since the 90’s China into WTO was an one time deal with great benefits. As everything settles into a new level, those benefits dissappear.

    Think about it,

    Dispersed electronic components and assorted assembly into devices that were located ad hoc worldwide where concentrated into few vendors, located physically close to each others under an authoritarian nationalistic and global control seeking Chinese Communist Party government.

    Who would have thought it would turn out different? Well, unless you were a nit wit free trader ideologue who drank your own laced kool-aid.

    Your clients, as well as other manufactures now have to go and dig old records, hire old experienced employees and rebuild their infrastructure the old fashioned way, like Henry Ford had to build everything from scratch.

    All of these means power to labor baby!!

  16. 1987 Condo says:

    Just watch Bravo’s Million Dollar Listing, they are saying apts are sitting for almost a year on the market in Manhattan, and I assume that was taped a bit ago…

  17. grim says:

    Corelogic HPI report out this morning, they are forecasting NJ home prices gains to accelerate in the next year, hitting a 6.0% YOY by May 2019, this is more than double the previous year actual appreciation.

    Looking at the other state estimates, I believe they are forecasting NJ to be in the top 5 states by appreciation next year. It would also be the highest annual growth since the bubble.

  18. Very Stable Genius says:

    @tonyschwartz

    As much as Mueller likely has on Trump, Michael Cohen could be an even bigger threat to his presidency. Clear now Cohen will flip and Trump can’t offer pardon.
    Look for him to attack Cohen mercilessly and viciously in weeks ahead.

  19. grim says:

    If Mueller and the FBI thought Cohen actually had something, they’d have him, and he’d be quiet, out of the public eye.

    Instead, he’s publicly whoring himself out to the FBI.

    Which means he has nothing, or his testimony is not credible.

  20. Not Gremmsky says:

    The best thing with this electronic parts and manufacturing fiasco is that at least it happened first with a Trump triggered decision. This allows manufacturers to rebuild.

    The worst that could have happened was if it occurred as a result of an embargo of US/China war.

  21. Yome says:

    Taiwan is independent from China. They produce computer goods. Is China the only Country this Companies can get this goods from? South Korea, Japan ,Vietnam, Philippines, India and others. Why it seems, if China stops the US will not function?

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well said. The business leaders over the last 20 years were chumps. People with no long term vision, and lacked empathy, so they had no problem hurting families (and our country)by holding raises down by shipping job overseas in search of easy profit. This easy profit had a cost, longterm it was not sustainable and would destroy your competitve advantage along with your manufacturing base. Good job!

    “Who would have thought it would turn out different? Well, unless you were a nit wit free trader ideologue who drank your own laced kool-aid.

    Your clients, as well as other manufactures now have to go and dig old records, hire old experienced employees and rebuild their infrastructure the old fashioned way, like Henry Ford had to build everything from scratch.

    All of these means power to labor baby!!”

  23. Yome says:

    We are the largest importer in the world. Economics dictates manufacturers will compete for our business. We have the upper hand dictating our terms

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s happening in NYC is very good. This is what a normal healthy market looks like

    Capitalism 101.

    You have prices go up significantly, builders adjust and start bringing new supply. Market then takes a breather and takes a couple years to absorb the inventory.

    Would you rather have runaway prices like sf?

    Nyc and nj are prob some of the healthiest markets in the country right now. Nyc and nj have for the most part always been the most level headed markets in the country. That’s why you didn’t see a huge bust in nyc or nj market ever. You will never see a 50% or higher correction here, buyers here aren’t as stupid as the rest of the country.

    3b says:
    July 3, 2018 at 7:54 am
    Bad weather? Wait until all the condos being built in lower Manhattan hit the market.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All these other markets in the country attract idiots. They see the huge price gain and chase it till it crashes. Places like Florida and vegas are examples of this. Always ends up in a crash when the market turns.

    If nyc and nj didn’t crash in 2008, these markets prob won’t ever crash.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My predictions for nj housing market hitting.

    It was only a matter of time that nj would start to look like a value. Our prices stagnated while a lot of these other markets flew up. Every year they went up and our prices stagnated, we became a value.

    How many people from nyc are now driving up prices in nj? The spillover effect is real.

    Remember when other parts of the country had much cheaper housing than nj? You got a huge house for 200,000 that would cost 1 million in nj? Not the case at all anymore. That will help nj prices over the long term.

    grim says:
    July 3, 2018 at 8:46 am
    Corelogic HPI report out this morning, they are forecasting NJ home prices gains to accelerate in the next year, hitting a 6.0% YOY by May 2019, this is more than double the previous year actual appreciation.

    Looking at the other state estimates, I believe they are forecasting NJ to be in the top 5 states by appreciation next year. It would also be the highest annual growth since the bubble.

  27. grim says:

    The best thing with this electronic parts and manufacturing fiasco is that at least it happened first with a Trump triggered decision. This allows manufacturers to rebuild.

    Stagger the tariff so that circuit boards, but not components are tariffed for the first 2 years, components excluded, with the understanding that the component tariff will come.

    This way, you can establish assembly capability in the US first, and then grow component manufacture with an established base of demand.

    US Assembly is likely 50% more expensive in China, now add the 25% tariff on components.

    The decision is easy, it’s not to move manufacturing to the US, it’s to simply eat the tariff and pass the cost on.

  28. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Got back from Boston and Maine last night.

    A few observations:

    1. I paid twice as much to travel on the Turnpike for 35 min than the rest of my trip back.
    2. Apparently smoking weed out in the open, even in front of cops, is common. One part of Boston Commons park had a lot of people doing it out in the open in front of kids. This is one aspect of legal marijuana that I’m totally against.
    3.We always count the amount of Cops we see in each state on our way. 9 in NJ, 0 in NYC, 2 in CT, 1 in MA, 0 in NH, 0 in ME.
    4. While pizza is pathetic in NE, the Shellfish is incredible
    5. Went to an amazing beach in Ogunquit, ME. It’s free to get on. Parking was $40!

  29. Not Gremmsky says:

    Yes, but does it guarantee that:

    1- You’ll be able to get your component/products out of Asia, if things get worse with China.
    2-Someone will set-up robot factories in US proper and do it cheaply enough to under cut you (what Trump wants).
    3- The NAFTA option of factories in Mexico is out. Mexico’s new Prez AMLO, wants to kill the Agricultural Free Trade side – which he blames for the destruction of Mexican family farms and causing poverty and emmigration. In the US, NAFTA is backed by Big Agra. Kill agriculturals and few are left, except ideologues that will want NAFTA.

    Grim:
    The decision is easy, it’s not to move manufacturing to the US, it’s to simply eat the tariff and pass the cost on.

  30. Provocateur says:

    Why wouldn’t the Chinese factory owners just send all or part of the factory to Vietnam? Put it in a tent like Tesla.

  31. nwnj says:

    Anon, you forgot to add “this is huge” to the latest fake news Conspiracy tweet.

  32. Not Provocateur says:

    What makes you think that Tariffs are NOT going to apply to VietNam. Another authoritarian single communist party country.

    Look, whether left or right. The battle can best be described globally as = kool aid drinking free traders that are oblivious to the damaged caused to their citizens by their action vs. country first nationalist.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    Is the immigration issue still on the front burner for the fake sympathizers or is that petering out ala Stormy Daniels and Russian collusion? What else can the weaklings drum up for the November elections?

  34. Bystander says:

    BRT,

    #3 is spot on. I left NJ back in 2009. One of the huge differences in CT is lighter cop presence. We don’t have County cops and fewer state troopers. Can’t remember last speed trap on the Merritt. It is rare. It is seriously oppressive in NJ.

    On NYC real estate, I will say it again. Good banking jobs have been in serious exit mode for several years. It is certainly a factor in the downslide. People are either flat or making less. Seeing it first hand.

  35. grim says:

    Tickets are big business in NJ, we can’t afford to not have cops bringing in the revenue. Municipal courts, fees, clerks, judges, OT for police to testify – lots of mouths to feed.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Always happens.

    “I live in Nashville with Vanderbilt University and a string of other great colleges. When graduating, the students tend to stay here if possible. We have over 100 people a day moving here because of reasonable regulations and no state income tax, low crime rate, great music venues and moderate winters with all the other beautiful seasons. However, our infrastructure cannot keep up and while we are always hospitable and friendly, we no longer want this overwhelming migration-traffic, etc. has become virtually impossible. We are becoming another congested Atlanta.”

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue,

    I’m in Boston now.

    The W upgraded me to their suite. Winning!

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just like nyc, smell weed often.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lobster roll and oysters from Island Creek Oyster Bar were top notch. New England is heaven for shellfish.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s simply supply and demand. They built like crazy. Nyc market is healthy. Prices rising out of control are not a sign of heath, but a sickness. It always ends up badly if the market doesn’t take a breath.

    “On NYC real estate, I will say it again. Good banking jobs have been in serious exit mode for several years. It is certainly a factor in the downslide. People are either flat or making less. Seeing it first hand.”

  41. Very Stable Genius says:

    @mattyglesias

    People sometimes wonder how the US conservative movement went from Cold War hawkishness to its new love of Russia.

    The answer is Putin pivoted Russia to be the global center of white nationalism.

  42. grim says:

    Chinese courts halt sales of Micron products in China due to IP issues, in favor of UMC?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/micron-chip-sales-banned-in-china-on-patent-case-rival-umc-says

    Bullshit, UMC was stealing designs from Micron.

    https://www.extremetech.com/computing/272383-china-attempted-to-steal-micron-secrets

    Nonsense retaliation for ZTE. Drop the hammer on China.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Booker gets it! Smart guy!

    “Across industry and financial markets, a culture of “short-termism” pervades: firms are increasingly focused on delivering immediate value for shareholders over making long-term sound investments including in, especially, their workers. In a survey conducted more than a decade ago, almost 80 percent of chief financial officers at 400 of America’s largest public companies said they would sacrifice the firm’s longer-term economic value in order to meet quarterly earnings expectations. Since then, the Great Recession and a range of other developments in our economy have added further pressures pushing corporate executives to squeeze every last dollar out of their operations. This mindset prizes quick returns over lasting investments.”

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Illustrative of this trend is the massive wave of stock buybacks in which companies, desperate to please shareholders, purchase their own shares in order to reduce supply in the market and drive up their prices. Before 1982, buybacks were generally considered to be a form of market manipulation, but in the decades since, as a result of a change in federal policy, they have become a staple of corporate decisionmaking. According to the economist William Lazonick, between 2003 and 2012 companies on the S&P 500 dedicated 91 percent of their total net earnings to stock buybacks and corporate dividends. That left just 9 percent for raises for workers and other kinds of investment in the workforce, such as expanded training.

    It hasn’t always been this way. Through the 1960s and 1970s, companies generally avoided buybacks and spent little more than a third of their net income on dividends. The retained earnings could be reinvested in a company in productive ways, such as capital projects, research and development, and employee pay and training. But particularly during the 1980s, the mindset of “maximizing shareholder value” came to dominate boardrooms across the country.

    A growing number of activist shareholders are increasingly motivated by extracting short-term value rather than creating long-term returns. This is one reason why the average holding time for stocks has fallen from eight years in 1960 to eight months in 2016.

    Compounding the problem, CEO compensation is largely based on stock options and other bonuses. CEOs are therefore heavily incentivized to use buybacks to boost share price and, in turn, their take-home pay. This appears to be especially true when their companies are not doing as well as expected. A recent study out of the University of Illinois found that companies projected to narrowly miss market forecasts for their earnings per share are significantly more likely to buy back shares than companies that are projected to narrowly exceed their earnings-per-share forecasts.”

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Some highly successful business owners are also critical of the focus on the short term. Ron Shaich, who founded the restaurant chain Panera and guided it to extraordinary heights before selling it to a private company late last year, has said that the “greatest competitive advantage Panera had, the reason we produced these results we did, is because we could think long term. And the reason I took our company private is I’m increasingly worried about our ability to do that in a public market.” Indeed, over the past 20 years, private companies—unencumbered by activist shareholders and executive compensation packages based on stock performance—have spent twice as much as public companies on “economically productive” investments like worker training and R&D as a percentage of their overall revenue.

    If there were any doubts about the effect of short-term pressures on corporate decisionmaking, take the recent case of American Airlines.

    Last year, American announced, along with its $234 million in first-quarter net earnings, that it would give pay raises to its pilots and flight attendants. But American’s decision—an acknowledgment that paying its workers fairly is integral to its long-term success—was immediately derided by financial analysts. One analyst for Citigroup complained that “labor is being paid first again, shareholders get leftovers,” while Morgan Stanley downgraded American Airlines shares, going as far as to argue that it “establishes a worrying precedent, in our view, both for American and the industry.” In response to this market reaction, American Airlines’ shares lost more than 8 percent in market value—about $1.9 billion—over the next two days. The message from the financial sector to companies considering pay raises and other types of workforce investments was clear: don’t.

    We’ve seen how, in only a matter of months, this shortsightedness has been accelerated. The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017 brought a sudden infusion of cash for corporations through a massive corporate tax rate cut. How have companies used the savings they reaped? So far, major corporations have gone on a buying spree, announcing nearly $500 billion and counting for programs to repurchase their own shares, further fueled by corporate debt, while spending just $6.9 billion on bonuses and wage increases for their employees. In other words, for every $1 given to workers, shareholders stand to gain $69.“

  46. grim says:

    In a survey conducted more than a decade ago, almost 80 percent of chief financial officers at 400 of America’s largest public companies said they would sacrifice the firm’s longer-term economic value in order to meet quarterly earnings expectations.

    Petition the SEC to eliminate requirements for quarterly reporting (10-Q).

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Booker nails it. Who says all policians are bad and don’t get it? I’m proud to have this guy representing nj in the senate.

    “Before 1982, buybacks were generally considered to be a form of market manipulation, but in the decades since, as a result of a change in federal policy, they have become a staple of corporate decisionmaking.”

  48. JCer says:

    Booker is very smart, but he is a bit of a smarmy politician and isn’t particularly effective. In terms of being articulate and understanding things, he is a bright guy, my dad knew him pretty well, he thought he wasn’t good as the absentee mayor of Newark and didn’t have the chops to be in the executive branch of government(governor or president) but thought he’d be good in the senate or house because they never get anything done there anyway.

    Wall street listed firms are inherently focused on short term. It’s the focus on measurement, long term metrics are hard to get right and compensation is based on short term performance. Literally your senior execs have a short life cycle where they literally make crazy money, so if you have 5 years your goal is to stuff your pockets full while you can, who cares about the consequences they’ll likely be felt after your time is up. With private firms usually the ownership group KNOWS the business the company is in and is concerned not only with short term income but the long term value of the business. Profit growth and business growth is great but as the sole owner of a business I have greater visibility into operations and can judge the management more effectively than some stupid wall street bankers.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    Excellent write up on booker. No one is perfect, but I like the guy because he is smart and gets it. He literally is individual responsible for getting Newark to make a turn for the betters. He did this during 2008 Great Recession too, that says a lot.

  50. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Opted for Ducktours Saturday. Good thing. Apparently there was a dead body in the Charles River spotted by the tour yesterday.

  51. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The harbor has these conmen dressed as monks. They try to put a bracelet on you and donate 20 or 40 for it. When I told the guy I would give him 25 cents for it, he ripped it off my arm. I googled it and found out about the operation. Apparently they are all from 1 town in China.

    The next day another tried and I said thanks for the gift it’s free. He violently ripped it off.

    Yesterday, a third tried and I said thank you and speed walked away from him. He followed me into the hotel. I chucked it back at him.

  52. nwnj says:

    Anon keep throwing around the r word. It’s currently a farce and is becoming a badge of honor. Previously anything anti oblammy was r@cist. Now if you desire to maintain national borders you are r@cist.

    Your progressive cause is currently losing badly and you are playing right into it. Once that word loses it’s meaning it will broaden the appeal of many fringe groups.

  53. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    I just drove past a house on a hill in Tennessee on I-40 and thought of you. It faces east so it has good feng shui

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Adam Smith understood this. This is exactly what is happening today. Coming together to hold down wages. How else can you have 3.9% unemployment rate with barely any wage inflation.

    “Masters are always and everywhere in a sort of tacit, but constant and uniform combination, not to raise the wages of labour above their actual rate.”
    —Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, 1776

  55. grim says:

    Booker is a millionaire, made possible by corporate America. From food stamps (well…) to startup millionaire, how can he argue that anything isn’t possible in America, rags to riches.

    By the way, he founded and ran this million-dollar-in-his-pocket startup while mayor, so he was able to go from rags to riches … in his spare time.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Trump hates immigrants, except when he and his family can exploit their low-wage labor. A Vox analysis of hiring records for seasonal workers at three Trump properties in New York and Florida revealed that only one out of 144 jobs went to a US worker from 2016 to the end of 2017. Foreign guest workers with H-2B visas got the rest.”

    https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/16466542/trump-h-2b-guest-workers

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Trump is a talker. Nothing more. At least booker turned Newark around and is really fighting for the workers of America.

  58. NJGator says:

    Mrs. Adler’s take on the market…

    Dear Friends,

    As we move into the summer months, I wanted to share a few thoughts on the current real estate market…

    Some Of Our NJ Midtown Direct Train Line Town markets have softened over the past two months as housing inventory has risen and buyers have more choices, turning this into a more balanced market as buyers make their housing decisions to get in for the school year. The market has been very town specific and price point specific.

    Price Point Decoupling: The good news is that the market is not moving uniformly across price points or towns. Generally speaking, more moderately priced homes have held their value (or appreciated) better than most upper bracket homes. Therefore, “move-up” buyers are finding great buying opportunities with the lowest price premium in recent years.

    Demographics: Buyer preferences are driving up the value of entry level properties, which are still receiving multiple offers if priced correctly. To make matters more challenging, for the first time in recent history we are experiencing two generations “down-sizing” at the same time. Before now, it was typical for home owners to age-in-place. Now, we are seeing empty-nesters, often in their 50s and 60s, downsizing alongside their parents’ generation (often in their 70s and 80s).

    Seasonality: 2018 is not behaving like a typical year in terms of seasonality. Cold weather delayed the spring market, and in May and June we experienced many more homes coming to market than in previous years. That’s good news for frustrated buyers who still want to get into a home for the new school year as there is still inventory!

    Taxes: Now that homeowners have had time to digest the new tax reform laws, we are finding that our clients who had been in the “thinking about moving” stage are now making housing decisions to minimize their monthly costs. Examples of this would be empty nesters who no longer need the public schools, luxury home owners downsizing, and families moving to more favorable tax friendly areas.

    I hope this information is helpful for you as you consider your own housing needs and how they may be evolving over time. Should you or anyone you know need some help or want to discuss the options, please don’t hesitate to call me or one of my team members at (973) 936-9129.

    Happy July 4th to you and your family!

    Yours to count on,
    Sue

  59. grim says:

    Sue is sounding grim

  60. 3b says:

    She does!

  61. dentss dunigan .... says:

    Murphy’s slick …he got his millionaires tax after all ..According to a source in Trenton, the fine print Murphy presented the legislature today set the millionaires tax to be triggered at $5 million, but for the 10.75% to be applied on the taxable income over $1 million. Sweeney and Coughlin made a deal that would require a wealthy taxpayer with $6 million in taxable income to pay New Jersey $107,500 in tax on the million earned above the threshold. The legislation Murphy presented would require that taxpayer to pay $537,500.

  62. Bystander says:

    Wow, the job rate is so low that employers are desperate in Trump’s hot economy. The news keep telling me this, yet I had a growing technology outsourcing firm blow off two phone interviews in a row. No heads up, no apologies, just did not call..twice. I was nice enough to call them to ask about a reschedule yesterday after they did not call. They pulled same sh$t today. This has never happened before in my career. So desperate…right. Oh wait, it is all hogwash and NYC is really sucking wind.

  63. grim says:

    By the way, the budget includes $5m a year subsidy for news and media organizations.

    Be sure to pander to your local politico to get a piece of the pie.

    Pravda New Jersey

  64. Juice Box says:

    Picked up some of those NJ legal fireworks at Shop-rite. It is just not the same 4th of July with out loud explosions or bottle rockets.

  65. Fast Eddie says:

    At least booker turned Newark around and is really fighting for the workers of America.

    LMFAO!!!

  66. grim says:

    Corey is bitter he won’t get to be president

  67. leftwing says:

    If there’s a reversal and taxes now are going up nearly three percentage points on income over a million that is a huge deal.

    Notwithstanding idiotic comments yesterday that people have a pot of money lying around just waiting to be lost one specifically does not piss away money to become and remain wealthy.

    For a client facing middle aged finance guy banging in 2-3m annually that’s an extra 30-60k off the top, with no offsetting federal deduction. The guy is already bringing home only $1m or so of his gross. That increase in tax is significant…it’s a prep/college tuition, high end vacation, etc.

  68. Fast Eddie says:

    Producers vs. Looters

  69. grim says:

    Yeah, especially don’t read the piece in the Star Ledger tomorrow about NJ coming in 50 out of 50 with wage growth. Worst performance out of all 50 states.

    NJ’s new tax policy is sure to make jobs and wages skyrocket.

  70. 3b says:

    Fast Thanks! I was waiting for someone to respond. I am ignoring that fool!

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty,

    Jesus, you are out of touch with reality. Unless you are Mr. Burns, losing 2-3% when you are making a million or more a year is nothing.

    Repeat after me, you can’t take the money with you when you die. You can’t take it with you when you die.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s like Trump. Why is he obsessed with making more money when he eats McDonald’s? Do you really need more money? The America taxpayer is going to be taking care of him for the rest of his life, why is he still trying to make money? What are you going to do with the money if you make it to 80 or higher? It’s all for an ego trip.

    Same thing with buffet. Dude still eats at mcds every morning and drinks cokes. Wtf does he still worry about every penny? He is 87 and going to die with all this extra money when he should have been spending it and living it up. He doesn’t buy Ferrari’s and still lives in his first home he bought god know’s when. Why make a billion, dude? What is the purpose if you barely buy stuff?

    More power to you if you want to live the frugal life, but understand that if you live the lifestyle of a family making 100,000 a year, why are you so obsessed with making billions? You think the billionaire lifestyle is waste of money, yet these clowns waste the only life they have making money they don’t need to fit their lifestyle. Can you say stupidity?

    I will never understand the obsession with making money if you don’t like spending it. Why focus so much of your life on something you don’t need? Insanity!

    Put it this way. Buffet is one of the richest individuals in the world and still working at 87. Go retire and get a life, dude! F money at that point.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ignorance is bliss.

    He improved that city dramatically under his tenure, if you can’t see that, you are blind.

    Dude, Newark made Amazon’s final 20 list…keep laughing. That was impossible before booker turned that city around. Murder rate dropped dramatically under his watch.

    Which one of your gods from the Republican Party have done this?

    Fast Eddie says:
    July 3, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    At least booker turned Newark around and is really fighting for the workers of America.

    LMFAO

  74. 3b says:

    Grim Don t be such an alarmist this is just NJ entering the next phase into a tech power house .

  75. Ex-Essex says:

    6:17 so which one is Facebook…?

  76. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Murder rate dropped dramatically under his watch.

    By 2013, with Newark’s population at 278,246, there were 3,516 violent crimes and 112 killings, both figures higher than when he took office. The city’s murder rate put it behind only Detroit and New Orleans.

  77. Ex-Essex says:

    Pwned

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