From CNBC:
Home price gains slow down in June: S&P Case-Shiller
Homebuyers are pulling back, and prices are finally following.
Home prices are still rising, but the gains are shrinking. In June, prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. That is down from the 6.4 percent annual gain in May.
Home prices in the nation’s 10 largest housing markets rose 6 percent annually, down from 6.2 percent in the previous month. In the 20 largest markets, prices were up 6.3 percent, down from 6.5 percent in May.
“Even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. “Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets.”
Rising mortgage rates are also taking their toll. The rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose from around 4 percent at the start of the year to just more than 4.5 percent now. That directly affects housing affordability.
Prices are still higher because of the shortage of homes for sale in general and particularly at the entry level of the market.
The supply of homes for sale in July was unchanged from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. While it wasn’t a gain, it was the first time it didn’t show a negative annual reading in a few years. Builders still are not producing enough new entry-level homes to meet demand, and potential sellers are holding back, concerned they won’t be able to find or afford a different home.
Home price gains are still quite strong in the West, where supplies are leanest, but those gains are shrinking as well. Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continue to lead the pack in price rises. In June, Las Vegas led the way with a 13 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.8 percent rise and San Francisco with a 10.7 percent increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ended in June 2018 versus the year ended in May 2018.
“Population and employment growth often drive homes prices,” Blitzer said. “Las Vegas is among the fastest-growing U.S. cities based on both employment and population, with its unemployment rate dropping below the national average in the last year.”
The Northeast and Midwest are seeing smaller home price increases, as prices there weren’t quite as hot to begin with, and more supply is coming on the market. Some markets in the Northeast are also being hit by new tax laws. Washington, Chicago and New York showed the three slowest annual price gains among the 20 cities covered by the report.
Folks, yesterday some of us started donating some $$$ to help grim keep this blog going.. Please use PayPal or send Amazon GC to Grim.. Let’s complete a round of funding by EOM September..
They will always be chasing this. People can buy more efficient cars and will if they keep raising the tax. There will never be enough money.
My new Impreza is routinely getting 35 – 38 MPG average on my commutes and I’m working from home more and more.
Keep in mind, the money from the gas tax doesn’t go directly to roads, they borrow tons more money than they get from the gas tax and use the revenue to pay interest.
grim says:
August 30, 2018 at 5:03 pm
Thank god for Murphy.
New Jersey’s gas will rise another 4.3 cents per gallon Oct. 1, Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration announced Thursday.
Murphy’s administration can make the change administratively, under a 2016 law that raised taxes on gasoline 23 cents per gallon. That law says that if the 23-cent gas tax brings in more or less than expected, as consumption rises or falls, the treasurer can adjust the rate to keep it on target.
This year, motorists bought less gasoline in New Jersey and revenues are lagging. That fueled the need to raise the gasoline tax, which provides funding for New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund.
I get it folks. It took a while, but I get it.
Take it from me. Having left and left “big” in terms of distance, I will tell you that NY and the metro area are pretty special. Finding your way there is challenging. But there is ‘something’ that is so not in this area. Pizza and Bagels? Good luck. So from that very essence of civilized living we are SOL out here. It has not rained here is 7 months. Wrap your noggins around that one for starters…The only reas0n that I am here is obvious to anyone who has met me. Family.
Just wait until they put a gas tax on electric cars, that’ll go over well.
People living in this part of the country take it for granted. Simple as that. The one’s that leave for cheaper areas always find out the hard way why it’s cheap.
What I love about the nyc metro suburbs, there is no other part of the country like it. The beauty of the seasonal change in the nice suburban towns is priceless. From the fall, to the white fresh snow look, to the green up in the spring. Just priceless. The look of towns that have been around for 100 years or more really separates this housing stock from the rest of the country. These towns were not built in the last 20 years. I think that is what hooks a lot of people into these cheaper parts of the country….they see it all shiny and new, not realizing what it is going to look like in 20 years when that shine wears off.
ExEssex says:
August 31, 2018 at 9:27 am
Take it from me. Having left and left “big” in terms of distance, I will tell you that NY and the metro area are pretty special. Finding your way there is challenging. But there is ‘something’ that is so not in this area. Pizza and Bagels? Good luck. So from that very essence of civilized living we are SOL out here. It has not rained here is 7 months. Wrap your noggins around that one for starters…The only reas0n that I am here is obvious to anyone who has met me. Family.
I heard something said on the news last night I hadn’t heard in decades. Somebody asked a commentator for a prediction and he said, “I’m no Kreskin, but..”
Just think of what these shiny new developments will look like in 20 years in the south. You think they will upkeep it? Lmao. It will be development after development going to sh!t.
3b complains about the look of Bergen county in comparison to the 80’s….what will happen to these cheaper housing developments in the south in 30-40 years will make him cringe if that’s how he is reacting to Bergen county after that time frame.
You can’t fix stupid. Why are they still building here? Better question, why are the wealthy buying housing stock worth millions in this area if it all can vanish over time? Real smart.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-29/miami-s-other-water-problem
And the federal taxpayers better not come to the rescue in Florida as this sea level rises. They wanted cheap taxes, they got them. Now don’t come knocking on my door when you need help for building on land that is practically at sea level.
Pumps, remember half of Wayne is in flood zone.. It will take one hurricane to make it houston..
Feds throw more money in Wayne for floods..
https://www.google.com/amp/s/patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/amp/27588535/feds-throw-more-money-ending-flooding-passaic-river-basin
And it continues!!
Lol! They must have polled Hillary or the beta c.uck males who support her.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/trouble-trump-disapproval-high-63-back-mueller-half-112416277–abc-news-topstories.html
I’m exaggerating but people donatupid stuff and Govt cant always keep tab of everything…
MSNBC says Mueller to drop bombshell today.
Most of the homes in Wayne’s flood zone are gone, or in the process of being removed. The remaining “half of Wayne in flood” is barely that, and mostly industrial or now completely vacant land
Will any executive at a large corporation ever go to prison again?
https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/houston-based-waste-management-company-forfeits-more-55-million-knowingly-hiring
“The non-prosecution agreement requires Waste Management to continue its substantial remedial measures to address all past immigration violations and forfeit more than $5.5 million in proceeds gained from hiring an illegal workforce at the Afton location,” said U.S. Attorney Ryan K. Patrick, U.S. Southern District of Texas. “In considering whether to enter into such agreements, we must take into account the collateral consequences that a criminal prosecution would have on the company’s contracts with many municipalities across the country and the thousands of employees for the conduct of three managers at one operating unit in Houston.”
“What I love about the nyc metro suburbs, there is no other part of the country like it. The beauty of the seasonal change in the nice suburban towns is priceless. From the fall, to the white fresh snow look, to the green up in the spring. Just priceless. ”
just gagged on this.
I think this guy must be smoking something. I live in an area of Hunterdon call Stanton. If he wants to compare views anytime, I’m open to the challenge.
Fast those numbers on Trumps disapproval ratings seem very high!
Joyce No.
3b,
It’s another attempt at a hit piece by the transex.ual left. Did they notice the economic numbers? No. They don’t care. They want p0t and g.ay sex, that’s all that matters.
xolepa,
Your area of the state is beautiful!
I was not only speaking about jersey….but ny and conn too. These upper tier towns are absolutely beautiful. Tree lined streets with old upkept housing stock like Ridgewood and Montclair is priceless. Areas like Rumson and the Navasink Rd in Middletown are just beautiful. The country feel of Allendale or a Saddle River, yet being so close to nyc. I can go on and on. Really love this area. Cali is the only place that comes close. Like Palo Alto reminds me of a ridgewood nj, but look at the prices. Nyc suburbs look like a complete deal in comparison to those prices.
xolepa says:
August 31, 2018 at 10:54 am
“What I love about the nyc metro suburbs, there is no other part of the country like it. The beauty of the seasonal change in the nice suburban towns is priceless. From the fall, to the white fresh snow look, to the green up in the spring. Just priceless. ”
just gagged on this.
I think this guy must be smoking something. I live in an area of Hunterdon call Stanton. If he wants to compare views anytime, I’m open to the challenge.
Never mind.
Wayne is huge. Most of the housing stock is not on a flood zone. The flood zone doesn’t even border any of Wayne’s normal neighborhoods…separated by highway. The flood zone makes most wayne residents disgusted with its costs on the taxpayer and they no way in hell support living there. The town will not let you build there. It’s only a matter of time till no one is living there anymore.
Miami, on the other hand, knows the problem they are currently facing, and they are still building like maniacs. What a bunch of idiots. Maybe we are the idiots, because you know damn well the rich in Miami are going to lobby the federal govt to come bail them out. These are the same a$$holess that are leaving nyc area to try and get away from paying the bill on the costs they created in this area. F them!
NJDepartment says:
August 31, 2018 at 10:36 am
Pumps, remember half of Wayne is in flood zone.. It will take one hurricane to make it houston..
10:46 yeah cause there’s nothing like the leader of the free world and his shit show to make us great again. Yay!! The door prize btw is Pence.
The true winners in this World are the folks who bought in the 1980’s and never moved.
Ex you are correct. And that was a one and done occurrence.
My wife’s good friend has a house on the beach in Lavallette. Grandpa bought it for $4100 in 1941. It’s now worth 1.6 million. Need to get lucky, but real estate can be one hell of an investment.
ExEssex says:
August 31, 2018 at 12:39 pm
The true winners in this World are the folks who bought in the 1980’s and never moved.
Like you point out, longterm real estate investing by buying and holding during the past 100 years has been pretty much bullet proof. Anyone that bought in 1980, in any location, had a winning long term investment. It’s right up there with dollar cost avg strategy in low cost funds in terms of dummy proof investing.
Sounds like marriage advice……
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 31, 2018 at 9:59 am
….they see it all shiny and new, not realizing what it is going to look like in 20 years when that shine wears off.
They probably called people at 9AM EDT the day after the Manafort and Cohen stories…… of course there will be a bump….. I would have said I disapprove too, and now 10 days later I couldn’t give less of a sh!t……
3b says:
August 31, 2018 at 10:59 am
Fast those numbers on Trumps disapproval ratings seem very high!
He gets it. You know how long I’ve been railing against it.
“Warren Buffett says people like him are the problem with the U.S. economy.
With a net worth of more than $75 billion, Buffett is currently the second richest man alive, according to Forbes. As the CEO of investing house Berkshire Hathaway, he is hallowed as the Oracle of Omaha. But for all his personal success, Buffett says the issue really is the 1 percent.
“The real problem, in my view, is — this has been — the prosperity has been unbelievable for the extremely rich people,” says Buffett on PBS Newshour.
Dow Jones increased 4,229x since Dec 1941. Slightly in excess of beachfront real estate long term.
https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
“MSNBC says Mueller to drop bombshell today.”
Hurry up and do it in the next 50 minutes. Have some ATM puts expiring today that would look very nice with a 1% haircut on the S&P……
….and you receive dividends instead of paying the negative carry…… quoting standalone prices in Real Estate without context is the ultimate in cliched behavioral bias…..
leftwing says:
August 31, 2018 at 3:08 pm
Dow Jones increased 4,229x since Dec 1941. Slightly in excess of beachfront real estate long term.
My wife’s good friend has a house on the beach in Lavallette. Grandpa bought it for $4100 in 1941. It’s now worth 1.6 million. Need to get lucky, but real estate can be one hell of an investment.
I have a good friend who’s parents bought in Lavalette. It’s still an empty lot thanks to Sandy.
Pumps finally self-examines.
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 31, 2018 at 10:14 am
You can’t fix stupid.
Just like the rental I had in Sea Bright. Beautiful, old, 4BR beachfront house, $5K in taxes. Family (two siblings of parents who bought it) rented it out for about $2500K per week all Summer long. Sandy destroyed it, they couldn’t afford to rebuild, finally sold the property for $600K. Somebody will build a nice $1.3 million house there, or 2 family condo.
I have a good friend who’s parents bought in Lavalette. It’s still an empty lot thanks to Sandy.
$2500, not $2500K, obviously.
Can we just admit that timing is everything on either real estate or stocks.
Also, they are two different beasts. Why won’t a bank give you a loan to buy stocks on margin on the same terms as real estate? The answer to this question tells you how banks feel in terms of risk between real estate and stocks. They will never let you put in 20% and loan you the other 80% at 4% for 30 years.
Another way of looking at this. Would you recommend that I take out a home equity loan on my properties for say 500,000 and put them in a fund mirroring the Dow Jones? The loan will be 4.5% and I should be able to beat that longterm based on longterm Dow avg returns, so why am I not doing it?
leftwing says:
August 31, 2018 at 3:08 pm
Dow Jones increased 4,229x since Dec 1941. Slightly in excess of beachfront real estate long term.
https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
All these days I was trying to give pumps the benefit of doubt but with these posts today about that 1941 beach house, now I’m convinced that he is a real ……
I wish my great great great great great grandma would have bought the whole lower Manhattan in 1775
“I wish my great great great great great grandma would have bought the whole lower Manhattan in 1775”
What do you mean?! Timing is everything!! She would have missed the big runup!! It sold for $24 in 1626!!
Uhhh no…because timing had nothing to do with a natural disaster.
I was simply making a point that real estate in America during the 1900’s was extremely lucrative. You couldn’t lose if you wanted to. Why are you taking a piss all over this simple point I’m making?
NJDepartment says:
August 31, 2018 at 6:04 pm
All these days I was trying to give pumps the benefit of doubt but with these posts today about that 1941 beach house, now I’m convinced that he is a real ……
I wish my great great great great great grandma would have bought the whole lower Manhattan in 1775
Pumps, bad news for you. Murphy is going to open your schools to the outstanding students from Paterson. Another hit to your RE investment.
https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/08/nj_may_settle_lawsuit_to_desegregate_schools.html
Political grandstanding, more groundwork for the presidential campaign.
Clear that Grewal has his eye on being the US Attorney General now.
That makes two who are just using NJ to further their political campaigns.
Not sure what the law is around when the administration and it’s legal representation sides with the plaintiff in a lawsuit against the state. Would imagine that the state would need to recuse itself and move the case to a neutral jurisdiction versus settling the case in it’s own interest.
It may be grandstanding but don’t kid yourself that he won’t go “California” on us. This POS will blow up the state if he has to.
It was all predictable when he came in. He doesn’t call the shots in the legislature and couldn’t raise taxes enough to fund his soci@list dreams so instead he would try to make a splash with social engineering instead.
I could see a recall campaign picking up steam if he goes for this. He got elected on 56% of 35% turnout which is 21% of the electorate. He basically collected the public unions and handout groups, outside of that he got nothing.
Agreed it’s grandstanding and for his future political goals, and agreed he’s going to try to do it anyway. Once again, rich people will send their children to whatever private school they prefer (and probably already do); it’s what’s left of the middle class that lives in towns with good public schools that will be fcuked.
Always a fun topic: Lakewood and now the surrounding towns.
https://www.app.com/story/news/local/communitychange/2018/06/21/toms-river-orthodox-synagogue-supporters-change-zoning-we-may-sue/703452002/
^^The epitome of the dangers of democracy and mob rule.
This is political suicide if they push this through.
This comment from that article nails it.
“Why are blacks and Hispanics always compared to whites in these studies? Are the writers still living in a 1998 New Jersey? Do they not realize that Asians are the majority group now in numerous former majority-white towns?
Bottom line: these “studies” wouldn’t dare to compare minority groups to other minority groups. It doesn’t fit the tired narrative that whites are to blame for everything.”
School system is not segregated. It’s based on where you want to live. No one is stopping you from living anywhere but yourself. There is no way I would live my entire life in the ghetto, it’s the ultimate motivation to work extremely hard to fix your current situation. If someone is okay living in the ghetto their whole life and collecting a check from the govt to survive, then you get the school system associated with how much you put into the system. Why would I pay high taxes and buy an expensive home if I end up receiving the same benefits as someone living in Paterson. This move will destroy this state, and if it’s applied nationally, this country.
Bottom line, you need to provide an incentive to work hard or the system is screwed.
I voted for Murphy to bring vision to grow our economy, and investment in our infrastructure and education system. He goes and pulls this crap. Feel like I have been stabbed in the back. I’m done with Democrats. Didn’t even make it to the age of 40…it’s true, older you get, the more you go against the ideas of the Democratic Party. It’s a good party for the youth, but once you get older, you will realize it is no longer the party for you.
Two comments nail it. First, aren’t all the schools required to teach the same things?
Second, your so called racist segregated system gives twice as much money to the minority school in comparison to the white school, and you are still complaining? Are you f’n serious? Time for these minorities to take a look in the mirror and start taking advantage of what is being given to you instead of wasting time making excuses and blaming other people. Step up!
“If you’ve got education standards that are guiding the teaching, then schools are all teaching essentially the same things, right?
So why does it matter where anyone goes to school?”
“In the last Ledger article published on cost per pupil per district, my district spent $16+K per student. I live in virtually 100% white district. Meanwhile, Asbury Park, a minority community, which is not that far away spends $33+K per pupil. That is TWICE what my district pays. And yet the kids in my town do so much better academically. What does Murphy want to do — send motivated kids with motivated parents to underperforming schools when they pay taxes to support a better school?”
My district gets $150 per student per year in state funding. That is One hundred and fifty dollars.
I was simply making a point that real estate in America during the 1900’s was extremely lucrative. You couldn’t lose if you wanted to. Why are you taking a piss all over this simple point I’m making?
Because, you referenced Lavalette, a community where a bunch of people got financially destroyed buying real estate the past 10 years.
If you didn’t see Murphy coming from a mile away, you weren’t paying attention……now prove you aren’t a whimsical idiot and retain your lesson from today for more than the 5 minutes to your next post.
The Great Pumpkin says:
September 1, 2018 at 10:58 am
I voted for Murphy to bring vision to grow our economy, and investment in our infrastructure and education system. He goes and pulls this crap. Feel like I have been stabbed in the back. I’m done with Democrats. Didn’t even make it to the age of 40…it’s true, older you get, the more you go against the ideas of the Democratic Party. It’s a good party for the youth, but once you get older, you will realize it is no longer the party for you.
It’s a good party for the youth, but once you get older, you will realize it is no longer the party for you.
It’s a terrible party for the youth. The only thing they bring to the table is the promises of all the lies they learned reading left wing blogs in college.
Blue thank you for addressing that stupid comment.
We know Pumps. The speed limits are too low.
Hahahahahahahahaahahhahahahahaha
There is no way I would live my entire life in the ghetto
Pumps you’re being far too selfish. Many of these Paterson kids are lacking fathers. You could invite them right in your house. Give them a seat at the table send a place to rest their head. I assume you’ve got the room with the hefty tax bill you pay and being sterile.
Yang believes intelligence and efficiency have become stand-ins for human worth in America, and the average American is being displaced in the workforce in what he calls a “war on normal people.”
The below is an excerpt from “The War on Normal People: The Truth About America’s Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income is Our Future” by Andrew Yang.
I recently had dinner with a friend of mine who works for a real estate investment firm. We met at a Japanese restaurant in Manhattan. After catching up for a bit, I asked him if he’d bought any fancy hotels lately – he’d gotten me a discount to one a few years ago.
He responded, “Our appetite for risk has gone down. You know what we’ve been buying? Trailer parks.”
I became more interested. “Really? Why is that?”
He answered, “They’re good investments. Tenants pay to keep their mobile home in a space with water and utilities. All we really have to do is keep the place clean and keep the water flowing.”
I asked him if he ever had problems with delinquency.
“The delinquency rate is very low because first, they get a late notice on the day after their rent is due if they haven’t paid. We are very diligent about monitoring and everyone knows it. Second, there’s no place cheaper to live. It’s really these places or the street for a lot of people. They find ways to pay. It’s a nice stable investment for us.”
“Fascinating. How do you grow?”
He shrugged, “We’ll probably look at raising prices over time.”
Success in America has nothing to do with hard work — and we’re in the middle of a ‘war on normal people’ – Business Insider
https://apple.news/AWHbTAUOsR4-dwNFM3lvn2A
The other major pursuit, particularly for those who work in technology, is replacing workers with software, widgets, robots, AI, algorithms, and/or cheaper workers. Many of my friends are innovators and know that they are automating away other people’s jobs.
The technologists and entrepreneurs I know are generally good people. If they were given a choice, “Do your job and eliminate normal jobs” or “Do your job and create abundant opportunities,” they would choose the latter. Most of them would happily even take a small hit to do so. But this isn’t a choice they’re given. They do their own jobs to the best of their ability and let the market do the rest. They may feel troubled at times that their success will displace hundreds or thousands of American workers, but believe in progress and that their work is overall for the good.
You may find this objectionable. Here’s the thing – it is not the innovator’s job to figure out the social implications of what they do. Their job is to create and fund innovation in the market as cost-effectively as possible. This is itself a difficult job.
It is our job to account for society.
That is, it’s the job of our government and our leaders.
Unfortunately, our leaders are typically a country away from these conversations. They’re trapped in cycles of warring press releases and talk show appearances and fundraising dinners. They also generally don’t understand technology so they’re reduced to lionizing innovators and trying to get on their good side. In turn, technologists often see government as a hindrance, to be ignored as much as possible, lobbied when necessary and navigated around while they make things better/faster/cheaper/more automated.
This is a disaster-in-the-making because technology is transforming society and our economy while politicians are left responding to the effects ineffectively years after the fact, or worse yet ignoring them.
I don’t know, I really have to agree with this author. Unless it’s a very high skilled job(few human beings can do them), you are not going to have a job in 30 years. The luddites were ahead of their times, their problem, their machines couldn’t think without a human. The game has changed drastically and at a very fast pace. There is no way in hell you are running an economy in which high skilled jobs are available for all.
No way you can support 3 to 4 billion people with high paying/high skilled jobs, the economic system is just too efficient to support that. I wish the people obsessed with efficiency could see the writing on the wall, too much of anything is no good, and efficiency is no exception.
Finally, NY Times Feature on WAYNE, NJ!!!!
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/realestate/wayne-nj-good-schools-water-views-and-retail-vacancies.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fliving-in
“Trump/GOP serve whom? December 2017: they cut corporations’ profits tax by 40%. August 2018: they deny federal workers 2.1% wage increase. Excuse: “nation’s budget could not afford it.””
Been supportive of trump, but this is pretty messed up when you look at in this context.
NYT did article on Wayne real estate and didn’t get quote from grim? That like writing about the Patriots winning the Super Bowl and not getting a quote from Tom Brady. Confirmation the NYT sucks and hires lousy journalists. I used to buy NYT every Sunday. About 10 years ago, I switched to NY Post. Better real estate journalism at the Post.
I’m seriously starting to understand why some view tax as a form of theft. This is a hell of a shady move by nyc.
https://nypost.com/2018/08/28/vornado-preparing-for-20m-tax-showdown-with-city/
https://www.bain.com/insights/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality/
My god, I’ve been saying this for how long? This is like reading predictions from Pumpkin. I say it, but get no respect.
“Chapter 3 looks at how rising inequality could threaten growth. Demographic shifts combined with the next phase of automation will increase income inequality from already high levels. Middle- and low-income families are likely to be hit hardest, putting downward pressure on consumer spending and growth.”
“But rapid automation of the US service sector, for example, could eliminate jobs two to three times more rapidly than in previous transformations (see Figure 4). As the investment wave recedes, it may leave in its wake deeply unbalanced economies in which income is concentrated among those most likely to save and invest, not consume. Growth at that point would become deeply demand constrained, exposing the full magnitude of labor market disruption temporarily hidden from view by the investment boom. Over time, the interplay of these three major forces may produce an apparent contradiction—a dramatic surge in output potential that ultimately leads to stagnation.”
Shocker. I’ve never known Pumps to repeat himself.
Hahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahaahahha!
My god, I’ve been saying this for how long?
Mcuhtredson
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