From Bloomberg:
Housing Is Tanking in the Northeast. Guess Why.
Sales of new single-family houses were down 13.2 percent in September from a year earlier, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. That’s a lot — the biggest year-over-year percentage decline since April 2011, when the housing bust was still busting.
It is also within the margin of error. The Census Bureau doesn’t go out and count every home sold. It takes a sample, and it estimates that there is a 90 percent likelihood that actual home sales nationwide in September were somewhere between 26.8 percent lower than a year before and 0.4 percent higher. The midpoint of that range is 13.2 percent.
There was one region of the country, though, where home sales were definitely down by a lot. That would be the Northeast, where new home sales fell year over year at a rate somewhere between 31.2 percent and 71.4 percent (midpoint: 51.3 percent):
Why might this have happened? Nationwide, rising interest rates would seem to be the obvious culprit for any decline in home sales. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.85 percent as of Oct. 18, up from 3.88 percent a year before and higher than it’s been since 2011, according to Freddie Mac. “High mortgage rates are preventing consumers from making quick decisions on home purchases,” National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said in reporting a 4.1 percent year-over-year drop in existing home sales last week.
But there’s this other thing that’s weighing on the Northeastern housing market: the provision in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump in December that restricts deductions for state and local taxes (aka SALT) to $10,000 a year. Some homeowners in states with (1) high housing prices and (2) high property tax rates will see much bigger tax bills as a result. Those homeowners happen to be concentrated in the Northeast. According to the Tax Foundation, the states with the biggest per-capita property tax bills are, in descending order, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York and Vermont.
God damn Trump is an idiiiiiiiot.
Not sure how they can know the impact of SALT yet. I would think it would take a year or 2 at least? I had household income of $200k for last 10 years and lost the property tax deduction each year due to AMT.
Have they changed the loan qualification process to incorporate the SALT deduction loss or is it the same process as 2017? Are folks now not qualifying for certain mortgage amounts because of that?
Certain amount of hypocrisy in Trump’s jawboning of the Fed, that raising rates will kill economic growth, but he goes ahead and does the same thing.
As the Northeast goes, goes the country.
It’s purchases, it’s forward looking, not backward looking. People are changing behavior on the presumption of impact.
Grim 7:34 am: Center of gravity of USA was Boston-NY-Phila-DC from late 1600s until recently. Today it is Seattle-Bay Area-LA-San Diego.
Get used to it and accept it.
You know how you can tell the pipe bombs were Democratic bombs? None of them worked.
Widening separation between East Coat-West Coast real estate values. Big problem for NJ real estate longs. Compare CLI-KRC stock prices.
Could be the Russians f*cking with us again. Putin walking around with his shirt off sayin’ “get-er-done”
And nobody has discussed the elephant in the bomb.
They had “timers”?
Timers?
What is the point of a timer when you are attempting to deliver an explosive to kill a person. How on earth do you set the timer?
Set it too early, and it blows up in the wrong place, what’s the point. Set it too late, it’s going to be discovered before it does its damage. The actual window of timing necessary to be effective is impossibly small.
These were mailed with stamps, so first class, so no guarantee delivery time. It’s not like these things were shipped overnight priority guaranteed delivery.
Who mails a pipe bomb with a timer? It’s quite possibly the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard of.
Perhaps foreign, Russian/China, the fat fingered Florida and spelled it “Florids”..and decided to still use the return address…( I’m thinking an American would have corrected it)
watch Pence speech to Hudson Institute…..foreign forces working hard to disrupt/agitate…
Q3 GDP 3.5% , slightly better than expected (3.2-3.4)
The bomb thing has almost no staying power as a story. Why? No one died. I know, it sounds terrible but think about it. In terms of the market, yeah Trump is going to extinguish what was a robust Global Economy. Sure, he thought it was a good idea to even the playing field and yeah, China sucks, but it is now hunker down time again people. Hug your loved ones close, this time it might be bumpy. The FED aint going be able to help.
LOL
D-FENS says:
October 26, 2018 at 7:58 am
You know how you can tell the pipe bombs were Democratic bombs? None of them worked.
Everyone knows the center of the USA is Union City-Hoboken-Jersey City
Yo! says:
October 26, 2018 at 7:55 am
Grim 7:34 am: Center of gravity of USA was Boston-NY-Phila-DC from late 1600s until recently. Today it is Seattle-Bay Area-LA-San Diego.
Get used to it and accept it.
On a happier note, I’ll be working again soon it appears, so I got that goin’ for me.
I agree that there is something wonderful about being productive. Though, I believe I have created masterworks in my time in Sabbatical. Anyways….
Tables have turned on Bay Area companies being darlings.
Now they are symbolic of a wealthy, elitist, white male dominant culture.
Tech giants who thought they were social justice warriors are finding out that the crosshairs are directly on them.
Package intended for Cory Booker found in Florida.
They are probably a few hours from catching the perp.
Agree..lots more video cams out there…I will guess postal insider?
I do not have Amazon Prime, so I group my purchases to pay no shipping, my latest shipping order of 10 items is FREE, but I am getting 5 separate deliveries…..
You are crazy. On population density alone, northeast is a powerhouse. West coast is laid back, northeast is no nonsense grinders. Both economies have their place in making America what it is, but no way in hell is the west coast replacing the northeast as king of the economy. Also, trade with china and Asia in general will never be what it was again due to tariffs. I expect more products to be made in the USA as opposed to wasteful shipping from China that hurts the environment.
Boston, NYC, Philly, Washinton DC = world powerhouse in terms of economy.
La, Sf, Portland, Seattle= powerful tech incubator, but nowhere near the financial/banking (everything to business) powerhouse of the northeast. Northeast much more diverse in terms of economics too.
Yo! says:
October 26, 2018 at 7:55 am
Grim 7:34 am: Center of gravity of USA was Boston-NY-Phila-DC from late 1600s until recently. Today it is Seattle-Bay Area-LA-San Diego.
Get used to it and accept it
Shocker, a crazy from Florida. Who would have thought?
grim says:
October 26, 2018 at 8:50 am
Package intended for Cory Booker found in Florida.
They are probably a few hours from catching the perp.
It’s because the money is so concentrated in specific locations on the West Coast. Just like north jersey (any area surrounding nyc, not only north jersey). Most of West Coast population is literally concentrated on the immediate coast next to SF, LA, SD, and Seattle. The difference between east coast and west coast, the amount of high rise condos or rental units vs single family inventory. They have a lot more single family homes in their inventory in comparison to these major east coast cities. This drives up the price of homes. That’s why a 1,000 sq ft house in silicone valley will go for 1 million. How is it any different than a little apartment in nyc or jersey city going for a million with no yard or driveway?
Yo! says:
October 26, 2018 at 7:59 am
Widening separation between East Coat-West Coast real estate values. Big problem for NJ real estate longs. Compare CLI-KRC stock prices.
“silicone valley”
Is that the new politically correct term for boob cleavage?
The idiots are the people who know Trump is lying and destroying the middle class but don’t care because they hate libtards and brown people.
exEssssssex says:
October 26, 2018 at 6:13 am
God damn Trump is an idiiiiiiiot.
Backed out of a decision to offer last week on a new house. Property tax 18K. My state income tax is maxed out at 10k already so anything more I cannot deduct. So the whole 18K property tax is not deductible. AND I can’t deduct mortgage due to higher standard deduction this year.. Double whammy
So what I’m now looking for is for the buyer to reduce their price OR go for a low tax house which doesn’t hit me hard for rest of my life..
How much bandwidth have you seen in the last 3 days devoted to the massive election fraud efforts by the Republicans to suppress votes from minorities and young people? Especially since early voting started in most states who do it this week.
It’s not like there’s a history of Russia and or Trump distracting voters when the heat is on him. IE when pvssy grabbing was supplanted by the DNC hack within a day.
grim says:
October 26, 2018 at 7:59 am
Could be the Russians f*cking with us again. Putin walking around with his shirt off sayin’ “get-er-done”
Hoboken will be East Coast version of South Lake Union as Walmart’s Jet.com competes with Amazon. Positive news for real estate values when tech hiring blasting higher.
Walmart can s$ck my c#ck. Two online purchases in last two years. A train table ordered on Dec. 15th, guaranteed by Dec. 19th which finally arrived on Dec 27th. Some patio chairs that I needed for party which matched current ones. Arrived 2 days late and they had wrong name on package therefore could not give deliver to me. It was same item. Indignant Walmart CS people fought to offer me anything, even like $6 off $70 item for being late. Amazon? Last year bought a new valve for pool. I thought it was right fitting but description was wrong. It was 6 months after I bought it that I found out. I contacted AMZ CS and they gave $150 back, no questions asked. Walmart can rot.
ARREST
Amazon can rot too.
The left had gone so far off the deep end and is so massively unhinged I’m not
Sure if there is any longer a point in engaging with them. They are militant and scream like entitled children constantly.
The truth to the left is like when you pour holy water on a vampire in old movies. They go absolutely spastic.
Comparing the current dem party to jfks is a joke. Where have you been for the past 50 years?
I don’t think it’s a double whammy because you’re getting the higher standard deduction.
Asking Price says:
October 26, 2018 at 9:59 am
AND I can’t deduct mortgage due to higher standard deduction this year.. Double whammy
Any guesses on age range of suspect?
Arrest in Plantation Florida
3 to 1 it’s a resistance loser . The left is importing them by the thousand.
What’s the difference between pipe bombs and pipes? My untrained mind tells me explosive material. Any of that been reported?
CBS reports 56 year old man arrested….
CNN now covering durst trial. Not looking good for the resistance.
Well is a Locust Boomer (56 yrs old).
Plantation, FL – tells me an ex-northeastern.
So is he a Limbaugh, Beck or Jones listener?
Proves my point.
Most of today’s problem are being created by the A$$hole Boomer generation’s fantasies. A decades long side effect of all the drugs the did.
The sooner we get rid of these malcontents, the better everyone will be. So to start. Kill of Medicare.
Criminal Record
Connection to New York
Business owner
..per CNN
I still think Menendez will win but Dang… Bret Baier points out that polling in NJ puts the NJ Senate race closer thatn the race in North Dakota…
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-11-days-out-nj-moves-toss
Aren’t Millennials the real locusts? They haven’t learned anything, they haven’t bought anything, they still live with their parents, yet they have a much better life than Baby Boomers ever did at that age?
Anyone know a good car rental place in Costa Rica? 3rd party insurance is required, but you don’t know what they are going to charge for it until time of booking at most places. The car itself costs next to nothing $5/day. Insurance goes from $10 to $22 a day.
I’m also thinking about blogging the trip if any of you are interested in following our antics.
It’s a late October morning in Newark.
The sky is overcast….. a major storm is coming soon.
In a darkened room, the junior senator is staring at a monitor.
The glow of the screen is reflecting off his clean shaven head.
Suddenly….. these words flash on the screen.
“Package intended for Cory Booker found in Florida.”
The man’s clenches his fist and pumps his right arm.
“Fcuk yeah…. I’m legit.” he whispers to himself.
grim says:
October 26, 2018 at 8:50 am
Package intended for Cory Booker found in Florida.
Can you afford the house? Do you want to live there? Stop making every decision based on how much money you can deduct. I promise you, you will die with extra money that you will never ever spend. So why are you so worried about every dime? If a couple thousand dollars or even 10,000 dollars a year is bothering you, then go live in some low tax state and be done with it.
Anyhow, you are getting a much lower tax bracket if you make under $315,000 a year and are married (all tax brackets are paying less). I’m paying 10% less then I would have. Take away those deductions when I’m having my overall tax percentage cut by 10%. If you are making 300,000, that’s 30,000 dollars you are saving. Some people want it all.
Asking Price says:
October 26, 2018 at 9:59 am
AND I can’t deduct mortgage due to higher standard deduction this year.. Double whammy
Cesar Sayoc Jr Native American?
Dfens,
I guess not. 56 yo, registered Republican, Cesar Sayoc, arrested. Anti-CNN, Pro-Trump decals on vehicle. Sounds Hispanic so let’s see how Fox spins if he entered the country legally and also how Hillary, Bill and Obama are involved.
The great pumpkin,
I think the slowdown, stock crash and SALT hit will put the house prices to go down by minimum 10% and more. So will wait or look for a nice deal..
Stock crash? Slowdown? This slowdown in housing is a temporary pause. Wait till next spring, and you will see it normalize. Just too much demand and the people on the side lines right now are building their ammo to go compete in the spring and summer.
You are playing it like the economy is crashing. I just don’t see it at all.
Asking Price says:
October 26, 2018 at 1:56 pm
The great pumpkin,
I think the slowdown, stock crash and SALT hit will put the house prices to go down by minimum 10% and more. So will wait or look for a nice deal..
You probably didn’t see the pancake in a can market demand crashing either.
So nice to be a renter.
Stock crash? Slowdown? This slowdown in housing is a temporary pause. Wait till next spring, and you will see it normalize. Just too much demand and the people on the side lines right now are building their ammo to go compete in the spring and summer.
You are playing it like the economy is crashing. I just don’t see it at all.
Blah blah blah.
So why exactly should there be a crash right now? Please explain. It’s like people want a crash to happen. They can’t accept that the economy is running strong, stronger than anything in a long time.
This stock market is clearly representative of the emotional makeup of the big dogs. They can’t make up their mind. Cold feet one minute, buying the next. It’s insanity and not based on one ounce of logic.
Housing too, it’s like people are praying for a crash so that they can scoop up cheap real estate. Here’s a little tip, when it’s an actual crash, you won’t even think about purchasing said asset. You will be too scared, hence, the self induced crash that happens every time in capitalism. Right now, I don’t see any of it.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
October 26, 2018 at 3:03 pm
You probably didn’t see the pancake in a can market demand crashing either.
So nice to be a renter.
some people have no sense of humor. sheesh.
Pumps, we could be seeing an economic contraction. As it stands many equities were overvalued and will fail to deliver growth(some are fairly valued and others undervalued). In a climate of raising rates money will migrate out of the equities markets. If the fed continues to raise rates, it’s like detoxing an opium addict, raising rates too quickly will kill the patient. The Trump tariffs add a whole other dimension. The pain from those might be enough to put us into a fear cycle, fear is what creates recession. Based on the old crane test, we are headed for recession, the fed needs to walk the fine line between recession and growth. The stock market isn’t the economy but it certainly impacts it, bad market returns reduce spending and hit the NY metro particularly hard.
Jcer,
Empty space for rent, contact Blumpy’s cranium.
These enormous jackpots are bad news. They are simply adding to the concentration of capital in our economy. Money was never meant to reach such levels of concentration in a healthy capitalist economy.
“”It’s simply a disguised form of taxation,” Wolff added, stating that the idea of a lottery existed in European countries way before it was adopted in the US as a substitute for taxation.
There’s also another problem with lottery, which is that it is a “job-destroying redistribution of wealth,” Wolff said.
“You’re taking money from lots of people [in a lottery]. That’s money they’re not going to spend on food, clothing, shelter and all the other things that provide jobs. We’re taking that money away from millions of people and giving it away to one person. And here’s what we know in economics, that one person isn’t going to be spending it all, because you literally can’t. A large portion of that money is going to be saved, not spent on food, clothing and shelter, [which all] create jobs.””
About the only thing I agree with pumps is that many suburban NJ markets are not overvalued. Hudson county is crazy and I suspect there will be another crash, too much capital flowing to areas DJT would describe as s-holes. Many suburban NJ locations are trading at numbers that aren’t out of line for the income potential.
Earlier about home prices, what hold home prices down in NYC suburbs are the property taxes, it adds to the monthly cost and makes them a bad vehicle for speculation. NYC and Hudson county largely don’t have the property tax factor so speculation is far more prevalent….
pumps you’d be surprised how many lotto winners spend it all…….
Jcer,
That’s why the stock market is built on bs. Why is there a need for constant growth? If they think it won’t reach the growth they want, they simply pull out, wait for it to crash based on their actions (meaning they hope it causes others to sell so they can buy back cheaper and get the growth they want).
It’s a dirty game. I’m just happy that the advent of passive investing by the masses has made it this much harder for them to take down the market with their head fakes. Not as easy as it used to be for the big boys. Technology changed the stock market. People now don’t sell when they see big drops, they just ignore, and continue to buy the cheap shares.
Think about it, if you are playing long term passive style, who cares if it drops….you know it’s inevitable that it will be much higher when you go to collect.
Based on things like earnings and profits, along with unemployment rate, this economy is damn strong and will be for some time. Current rates are ultra low long term, so why exactly are people crying about it that it will hurt growth? And why are they crying about inflation? Wtf?!
JCer says:
October 26, 2018 at 4:04 pm
Pumps, we could be seeing an economic contraction. As it stands many equities were overvalued and will fail to deliver growth(some are fairly valued and others undervalued). In a climate of raising rates money will migrate out of the equities markets. If the fed continues to raise rates, it’s like detoxing an opium addict, raising rates too quickly will kill the patient. The Trump tariffs add a whole other dimension. The pain from those might be enough to put us into a fear cycle, fear is what creates recession. Based on the old crane test, we are headed for recession, the fed needs to walk the fine line between recession and growth. The stock market isn’t the economy but it certainly impacts it, bad market returns reduce spending and hit the NY metro particularly hard.
Jcer,
Read this article about lottery winners. It’s bs that they lose it all.
“Cesarini tells TIME that a common misconception is that the more a person wins in the lottery, the more likely he or she is to spend it all.
An often-cited — but incorrect — anecdote about lottery winners falsely attributed to the National Endowment for Financial Education claims that about 70% of people who suddenly receive a windfall of cash will lose it within a few years. In January 2018, the National Endowment for Financial Education set the record straight and said that statistic was not backed up by any of their research.”
http://time.com/5427275/lottery-winning-happiness-debunked/
Watch this speaker all the way to the end…… the professor….. are you kidding? Absolutely stunning….
https://youtu.be/8073tHq8-JE?t=596
I’d love a chance to burn through a Billion. Why not.
First on the List…..a Killer home in Malibu. Or Big Sur. Baby.
Maybe a pied a ter in Manhattan. Love to be near Central Park and some nice Jews.
Jcer,
I agree but ‘not overvalued’ based on what factors? Wages will grow, taxes stabilize, pension solution, NJ spending gets under control? It has not really happened in 10 years now. What is the fair price of a house with 5-6 rates and no stimulus? We have no idea. The ‘better days’ model is one realtors and politians tout. Two opinions that I don’t trust.
These enormous jackpots are bad news. They are simply adding to the concentration of capital in our economy. Money was never meant to reach such levels of concentration in a healthy capitalist economy.
“”It’s simply a disguised form of taxation,” Wolff added, stating that the idea of a lottery existed in European countries way before it was adopted in the US as a substitute for taxation.
There’s also another problem with lottery, which is that it is a “job-destroying redistribution of wealth,” Wolff said.
“You’re taking money from lots of people [in a lottery]. That’s money they’re not going to spend on food, clothing, shelter and all the other things that provide jobs. We’re taking that money away from millions of people and giving it away to one person. And here’s what we know in economics, that one person isn’t going to be spending it all, because you literally can’t. A large portion of that money is going to be saved, not spent on food, clothing and shelter, [which all] create jobs.””
Wait, the government takes half and spends it isn’t this good? The lotto winner blows it all as well, “stimulating” the economy. People don’t save, the money all gets spent. Isn’t this good on all sides in the left mantra?
Blue,
Read the article I posted at 4:28. It’s bs that most blow it all. It’s taking a rarity and applying it as a norm. That’s what the study says and I tend agree. Do some sport athletes go broke? Sure, but is that the norm? So let’s not do the same with the lottery. ARod is killing it with the money he made from baseball. Absolutely killing it. He was a poor Dominican, so believe that bs that all poor people are bad with money.
Lib I did arenal-nosara-mal pais-tambor for two weeks during Christmas a few years back.
I’m out now but will get you name of clay I used, highly recommend. They are domestic and alot if travel sites warn you away from those as apparently insurance frauds among locals is huge down there.
Had no issues, newer car, 20k or so miles. Christmas eve the thing starts acting up, something electrical, just wouldn’t start some time. Didn’t want to risk going through holiday like that so called rental agency. Manager drives to my hotel with a brand new car hands me the keys and drives the other one away.
Huge.
Name of *agency*. Fcuking phone
😇
http://vt.co/lifestyle/science-proves-that-people-who-point-out-grammar-mistakes-are-all-total-jerks