From the WSJ:
New York’s Wealthiest Cut Losses as Manhattan Real Estate Falters
When actor Brian Kerwin decided to sell his longtime Manhattan home—an 1880s Romanesque townhouse he and his late wife had carefully restored—he was hoping it would go for about $12 million, based on similar sales in the neighborhood. When he and his agent, Kim Mogul Wright of Douglas Elliman Real Estate, agreed on a price tag of $8.5 million, he thought there would be “five takers within a week,” said Mr. Kerwin, 69, who has appeared in movies such as “The Help” and “27 Dresses.”
So he was shocked when the Upper West Side listing got “absolutely zero interest.” Finally, after a year on the market and several price cuts, the redbrick house is now in contract for about $5.5 million.
Accepting that the home would sell for far less than he had imagined was a gradual—and emotional—process, said Mr. Kerwin, who bought the house for less than $1 million in the early 1990s and raised his children there. “It’s like hitchhiking; after standing there for 10 hours you’ll take anything,” he said.
Mr. Kerwin is one of many Manhattan homeowners struggling to accept the new reality of the New York City real-estate market, as prices slide after a decadelong boom.
This year has brought into sharp focus all the pressures on the market. The slowdown began at the time of a stock market rally and record-low New York City unemployment—factors that typically accompany strong real-estate sales in the city. For that reason, many owners are reluctant to accept lower prices, even as buyers determinedly seek bargains. New York is facing the convergence of several large economic forces: an oversupply of new condos, a drop in international buyers as some countries impose capital controls, changes to the tax law that cap state and local deductions, and rising interest rates.
New York is facing the convergence of several large economic forces: oversupply of new construction condos, a drop in international buyers as some countries impose capital controls, tax law that makes it harder to deduct high state and local taxes, as well as rising interest rates. There is also a shift in taste from uptown to downtown.
As Lee J. Stahl of the design/build firm the Renovated Home put it: “It’s a crazy Bermuda Triangle of forces that have lined up against people trying to sell and buy these properties.” The Upper East Side luxury co-op market in particular is “a train wreck,” said Mr. Stahl, who often works with agents listing properties in need of renovation.
In August, for example, financier Ramesh Singh sold his sprawling Park Avenue duplex for $13.75 million—far less than the $20.365 million he paid in 2008, according to public records.
First …
This isn’t a good sign for NNJ real estate. Typically the big apple rots from the inside out, so if there is price stagenation/deflation in the upper segments of manhattan it will work it’s way through manhattan, brooklyn, queens, gold coast of hudson, eventually to the suburbs. This would be indicative of a regional economic stagnation probably driven by the spending cuts/job migrations seen throughout wall street firms.
I have been saying for a number of years now that over building in NYC was going to be a problem.
Jcer it might actually be the reverse as I believe the suburbs outside the Gold Coast are already in decline. The nyc decline may just accelerate the suburban decline. High priced real estate is not a good thing. Spending so much of ones income on a piece of property leaves much less left to stimulate the overall economy.
Wait, you mean a rat infested warehouse converted studio near the Gowanis isn’t actually worth a million dollars?
That article was from Friday…… if you read through the fine detail, the subtler point is that traditional old money enclaves such as the UES are less compelling to the millennial DINKs, who prefer the downtown vibe, certain styles and amenities. I think I posted something in the last year about this trend, as a notable client of mine who was gung-ho PreWar UES had reversed course and liquidated everything he had….. of course the broader issues of more supply and also co-op board nonsense is relevant……
Brt there is tons of building activity in lower Manhattan in various stages of completion including the old BONY headquarters at one Wall Street massive conversion of a 5o story office building to residential.
Meanwhile in Bergen lots of new rental apartments in River Edge Paramus and New Milford and more on the way. SF homeowners not happy.
I’m clearly the least knowledgeable here regarding real estate, but I think those foreign nationals dropping millions would rather be in those new Hudson yards or downtown or other hip areas than older buildings.
My lack of knowledge also makes me think that the $400k-$700k housing market 15 miles west of Times Square is little impacted by these multi-million dollar players.
I convinced my mom to sell her Co-Op last year in the village, right outside the Con Edison plant. $250k profit. Maybe it goes up in value, but I can’t see why anyone paying such a high price tag to live in such abject poverty.
Libturb and Expat have some ‘splainin’ to do….
https://nypost.com/2018/12/03/us-tourist-sent-chilling-last-text-before-vanishing-in-costa-rica/
Fro his base in Wayne Pumpkin probably feels a kinship with the moguls in the article. Fellow winners in the game . So to speak.
Woe is me. I can’t sell my place for 10 times what I paid for it, only 4 or 5.
We should pass legislation banning the use of public funds to build new stadiums…
It’ll cost $1M to tear down failed baseball stadium built with $21M in public funds
Add another $16 million to the money pit formerly known as Campbell’s Field on the Camden Waterfront that will soon be demolished.
The Camden County Improvement Authority approved a nearly $1 million contract this month to tear down the 17-year-old former “Field of Dreams.” It was built with $21 million in public dollars thrown after a fad of independent minor league baseball stadiums as a draw for foot traffic and economic development.
After the demolition, Rutgers-Camden and Camden city are expected to pony up $15 million, $7.5 million apiece, to develop the area into a complex of sports fields for the university’s Division III sports teams and the city recreation department. Another $155,000 is also included to the $939,300 demolition contract awarded to the R. E. Pierson construction company to dig up irrigation and drainage lines at the former 6,400-seat ballpark.
Where’s the accountability for the disastrous decisions made here?
Oh yeah, public sector, there is ZERO accountability.
San Jose. Rookie!
ExPat and I just had a fantastic lunch consisting of beans, rice, salad, coffee, plantains, and I had steak while he had a smoked pork chop. Less than $10. Very good too. We’ll be ubering on Tuesday night. Between you and me no one is abducting either of us.
“Between you and me no one is abducting either of us.”
Most CR abductors don’t have vans large enough.
3b, at some price levels in some suburbs there is structural weakness in the market. Unless the manhattan issues are contained to the high-end and certain neighborhoods there will be a housing led recession in the greater NYC economy which will have an effect, as many NNJ markets are already facing significant headway the losses seen would be significantly less severe than in red-hot Manhattan or more so the alternative markets of Brooklyn, Queens, Jersey City/Hoboken, Gold Coast, etc as they are Manhattan alternatives, will see the most severe downturns. I wouldn’t expect a market crash in..lets say……Wayne because it is already under significant pressure, I just would expect a price dip.
I hope you have great ventilation in your condos…….
Libturd says:
December 3, 2018 at 1:16 pm
ExPat and I just had a fantastic lunch consisting of beans, rice, salad, coffee, plantains, and I had steak while he had a smoked pork chop. Less than $10. Very good too. We’ll be ubering on Tuesday night. Between you and me no one is abducting either of us.
…..and the Uber drives with the windows down…..
Jcer Good analysis.
If anyone listened to me on apple and amazon two weeks ago, congrats! No risk play with big reward. Like taking candy from a baby.
Real estate is screaming buy opportunity, but keep thinking it’s toast. Buy now, hold for five years, and say thank you Pumpkin.
Pumps…… this is you….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZaPMemShCU
Pumpkin drinks his own splooooge .
Hees back!! To hell with what 30 year says. He only has almost 40 years in the business and is in the market every day, Pumps says real estate is a Screaming by. So it has to be true!!
When everyone is scared to buy at a time when the economic and demographic fundamentals are strong, combined with low inventory unable to match future demand….you have yourself a buying opportunity. Just my two cents. Why would housing be significantly cheaper under these conditions 5 years from now? Please explain instead of calling me an idiot.
I posted a lot of material at the end of last week to support my position.
But you ignored 30 years analysis. You deemed it merely an opinion.
Actually what’s screaming buy is solid companies with strong balance sheets paying above 5% dividends.
30 year is not making calls. He is simply providing his analysis of the current market. My calls are predictions. They are saying right now is cheap based on what’s going to happen over the next 5-7 years. Could houses drop in the short term, sure, but not likely. Will housing be much more expensive than now in 5 years? I would almost put my life on it.
3b says:
December 3, 2018 at 6:50 pm
But you ignored 30 years analysis. You deemed it merely an opinion.
I dunno. I’m stoked to see our little SoCal biotech thriving in the market. That’s my daughters college fund.
8:07 – Jersey has some huge taxation issues. Until that shit is sorted, I wouldn’t be too excited about the reckoning to come. Including some liabilities for pensions that could bankrupt the State. Also look at the trends of testicular massification upon the putrid burroughs to the East.
State can’t go bankrupt so they will have to come up with an alternative.
“Amazon.com Inc.’s deal for a second headquarters in Long Island City, N.Y., has prompted a state senator to draft legislation that would prohibit the buying or selling of real estate based on any nonpublic government action.”
“The proposal follows a Wall Street Journal article about Amazon employees who went shopping for condos in Long Island City shortly before the giant retailer an-nounced plans to open a new headquarters there, which immediately drove up residential demand and prices. The employees are now under contract to buy, brokers said.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-senator-proposes-law-to-ban-real-estate-deals-based-on-nonpublic-information-1543842000?emailToken=b34cd4d8a24f182c1c3e38df15585bcaS0nVxCoqJ8GH1hOzE556MwKGmsMTb7UnbxRuMqjBXpt5EfIVNPMwXRbv1NWj8GVwhCLPQkHwbrEJrlSm1/5nn3NcJJZkexMt3W9dOyv1BNheaiXnmGSXyfrhue0iaFbtlggf6Fm795Bci8sQB7Rk0Q%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Pension issue is not a jersey problem, it’s a national problem. Go ahead, let states like jersey crash and burn, it will impact the entire national economy. National bailout is inevitable, this is people’s retirement we are talking about.
Bigger question. How will the stock market supports itself without pensions? Wall st big dogs love to cry about pension obligations, but they forget how much of a role the pension plays in making their stocks worth what they are.
How many times was the pension funds used to bailout wall st? How many times?
“Unfortunately, the pension problems of Chicago and Illinois are mirrored across the United States, which is how the underfunding figure reaches the $2 trillion to $8 trillion range. I expect, due to the power of incentives, the U.S. government will eventually come to the rescue of our underfunded municipal pension plans.
I say this because, like the financial crisis in 2008, the pension crisis is a systemic problem whose reckoning will have nationwide consequences.
The financial crisis was not the result of a localized bubble in housing prices and subprime mortgages; it was the result of a nationwide bubble in housing prices and subprime mortgage credit. Similarly, the pension crisis today is not just a problem in Chicago and in Illinois; it is a nationwide crisis.
The first-order consequences of a pension crisis in Chicago and Illinois are bad enough, but the second-order consequences are nationwide and systemic. If and when financial prices decline and the underfunding levels in pension plans increase further across the country, it will be clear that the pension crisis is a nationwide, systemic problem and that cities and states do not have the capital to fix it.
Once it becomes clear that the pension crisis is a nationwide, systemic crisis, I think we will see a Federal bailout.”
http://www.appleseedcapital.com/blog/2018/06/upcoming-public-pension-bailout-power-incentives/
Pension crisis guarantees future inflation to fix the problem.
No one is going to willingly pay for it, so it will be taken through inflation.
Time to celebrate with some pancake n a can!
If anyone listened to me on apple and amazon two weeks ago, congrats! No risk play with big reward. Like taking candy from a baby.
Sentiment measures tracked by Citi, along with the bank’s “normalized earnings yield gap work,” imply there is a 90 percent chance stocks are at a higher level this time next year, chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich says.
The S&P 500 fell into a correction recently, dropping more than 10 percent from an all-time high reached on Sept. 21, before rebounding from those levels.
“We understand the anxiety, but the environment is not the same as in 2007, yet the bears are still out,” Levkovich says. “Notably, we were concerned in September when most were not, and now we feel more upbeat when others are less sanguine
https://apple.news/Ad78IlZ0wQNWwS6kaHY73_w
Hello fellow real estate enthusiasts. What I am really looking for is more Costa Rican Tales from our two travelers. We may even need a whole blog dedicated to this historic event. Guys?
Disappointing iPhone sales, now discounting and promotions.
Margin compression coming and revenue run rate slowdown to boot, now they are letting Samsung take the lead on 5G and not releasing a 5G iPhone next year?
https://www.njeda.com/pdfs/21st-Century-Application-Instructions.aspx
NJ state government bureaucracy attempting to save the suburbs.
They are being held in the lockup…… they won’t be able to respond until someone wires bail from the states….
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/police-body-american-woman-goes-023956476.html
ExEssex says:
December 4, 2018 at 9:20 am
Hello fellow real estate enthusiasts. What I am really looking for is more Costa Rican Tales from our two travelers. We may even need a whole blog dedicated to this historic event. Guys?
ooooops..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/toll-brothers-home-orders-plunge-led-by-slowdown-in-california
Sold most of the ARLP I held and bought over the past 3 years yesterday. It’s time to go back into safety mode. Proceeds were spread over Altra, Phillip Morris, Exxon Mobile, Verizon, Coke, Pepsi, and a Singapore Index. Most of these things are paying 5% and I can’t see dividends being cut.
“Sentiment measures tracked by Citi, along with the bank’s “normalized earnings yield gap work,” imply there is a 90 percent chance stocks are at a higher level this time next year…”
Wow, what diligent work and analysis…in a market whose LT rate of return is 9% annually….Oh, and did I mention the market had two 10% corrections this year and is still higher? What value added for their clients!
No wonder the village idiot quotes this…these two dumb fcuks deserve each other LOL.
They can debate the merits at dusk of the sun rising in the next 24 hours and deem each other geniuses when it does.
Brennan’s testimony is damning of the Murphy administration.0
Am i the only one notices, thay dudebought a house for less than 1 mil, sold for 5.5mils after 28 years?
Not a bad ROI – a bit less than he’d get from investing in general djia fund, but not much less. And he lived in it!!!
Anyways just my 4 cents
Actually what’s screaming buy is solid companies with strong balance sheets paying above 5% dividends.
Amen to that! List ’em here!
Murphy is finished. Him and his gang of radicals are irrelevant whether or not they get the boot. His admin harbored an accused rapist because he was a party operative. That was established under oath. Sweeney will continue to run things as he’s been.
Amen to that! List ’em here!
See 10:41. I have a hard time envisioning any dividend cuts from those companies. Altria and Phillip Morris are currently in the process of the government trying to regulate them. But no one has ever won a war on nicotine, so I’m a buyer.
BRT,
Always good to get advice! I have Exxon and Pepsi in my holdings as well as DVY ETF. I like dividends! :)
Why didn’t you say the same thing about trump? Grab them by the pu$$y? Typical team player right here.
Is it Murphy’s fault someone that worked under him tried to rape someone? How is this his fault exactly? Are you saying he would ignore rape? I highly doubt that. Sorry.
GdBlsU45 says:
December 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm
Murphy is finished. Him and his gang of radicals are irrelevant whether or not they get the boot. His admin harbored an accused rapist because he was a party operative. That was established under oath. Sweeney will continue to run things as he’s been.
Pumps it’s never the crime it is the cover up. Murphy is being accused of lying and a cover up.
Everyone and their mother thinks we are due for a recession. How many times has the herd mentality been correct? If everyone is calling for it, not going to happen.
Key word….accused. No different than the witch hunt on Trump. If Murphy was a friend of the democratic establishment (Sweeney), would we be having this conversation?
Sorry, I don’t believe Murphy and his wife would ignore rape and help cover it up. Not for a second.
The other damning thing here was that the hiring process is non existent for these political hacks. She asked for the position she wanted, got it, no further questions. Who else is Murphy hiding?
Pumps nobody is asking you, the reason for the hearing is because some in our legislature do not believe Governor Murphy.
Forgot about B&G Foods (BGS).
Stock is 40% off it’s highs from last year. Nice dividend there.
Murphy’s right hand man called her shortly after she sent phil an email that he replied
To. “We’re on it.”
Murphy’s aid mentioned Alvarez directly during the call. Phil knew and did nothing.
It’s a good ol witch hunt on Murphy. Who is the guy that did the raping? A nobody. Why would phil protect him? This is Sweeney trying his damn best to take out Murphy. Plain and simple.
A few questions:
1. Why did she not go directly to the cops? Wtf?
2. Why is this case all about Murphy? If she went to all these individuals, why aren’t they being questioned? Why aren’t they being arrested if they knew? Why is this about Murphy?
3. At the end of the day, I just don’t understand how someone can claim they were raped and could do nothing about it? Wtf? Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Go the cops if you are raped, plain and simple. It just doesn’t make sense. Why are you writing emails to murphy about being raped…or talking to Murphy’s aides? Wtf? Are they law enforcement?
She did, she did, you’re an idiot. That’s all.
So why all the focus on murphy? What about all the cops that didn’t do their job?
I believe she was raped, I just don’t understand why this falls on Murphy?
“This governor will have your back”
And his aides will handle your front.
All I ask is why this is about Murphy and not the police? Can anyone answer this?
She went directly to the police. She did a rape kit the next day.
Why did Hudson County prosecutor close the case with no charges?
Why did Alvarez offer Brennan a $15k settlement to sign an NDA after the case was dropped?
Stinks like a coverup where Brennan was given an administrative position to get her to shut up.
All indications were that Murphy and the transition team were well aware of the details before putting both Alvarez and Brennan in administration positions.
Murphy may very well be caught in a lie about not knowing.
This is now bigger than Bridgegate.
Brennan is entirely credible, if there is political motive it is not clear what hers is.
Again, did Murphy personally tell the police not to do their job? If so, let’s get him. If not, let’s leave Murphy out of this and go after the law enforcement that did not do their job.
This sounds like a witch-hunt, to try and take down murphy anyway they can.
grim says:
December 4, 2018 at 1:45 pm
She went directly to the police. She did a rape kit the next day.
Why did Hudson County prosecutor close the case with no charges?
I actually have doubts about the case.
But this was a political appointment. That’s the issue. They buried the accusation behind the apparatus. They harbored an alleged rapist PERIOD.
Pumps read the damm news already. Hudson County Prosecutor Esther Suarez personally knew both Alvarez and the alleged victim, a “conflict” and she did not send the case to another county, instead her office decided not to prosecute.
Headline should read a politically connected alleged rapist gets a job in Murphy’s admin even after his staff knew and he possibly knew too.
Essex, when we get back I’ll post my findings complete with photos. I might even report on ExPat! For now,
https://www.point2homes.com/CR/Other-Sale/Guanacaste/Playa-Grande/Cabo-Velas-21-Matapalo-Guanacaste-Costa-Rica/63160815.html
Taxes around $100 a year. Oh yeah, it comes fully furnished.
BRT, did a three minute look on BGS as I’m putting together some shopping lists. Like them, but they are pretty highly leveraged. Did not dig down into them at all, only five minutes worth, but I would advise medium term caution on any highly levered name.
About a third ($700m) of total debt is due in June 2021. Good stuff going on in that area no doubt, paydown of the TL in total from the proceeds of stuffing Hershey with some ‘B’ level brands. Just be careful around levered companies, think they will be next great selloff in the new year.
Hudson County Prosecutor dropped the case the day after Murphy’s transition team was formally made aware.
Want to see a realistic place? This one, within walking distance to the largest, prettiest and quietest beach in the country (Playa Grande). Condo fee is $100 a month. Taxes are $400 a year. Includes furniture and horse boarding. Security too.
https://www.point2homes.com/CR/Home-For-Sale/Guanacaste/Playa-Grande/Ocean-View-3-bdrm-4-bath-Furnished-New-Construction-home-Gated-Community-PRICE-REDUCED/59162256.html
I am uploading a panoramic of the beach.
She’s pulled her punches when it came to buck tooth. Not going as far as accusing him of full knowledge. Sadly a wise move if she wants a career later.
But I can give The benefit of the doubt to the DA. Married women should not allow men into their home after a night of partying. Tends to damage their credibility.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/EZSUbFUP13xmxd5t7
In all honestly, I hope all these people are arrested and removed from their jobs, including Murphy. Why is it so hard to be good and do the right thing? It’s a disgrace that corruption must accompany power, a got damn disgrace.
A girl comes with claims of rape, has evidence, and nothing is done. Wtf? I’m truly embarrassed that humans simply can’t get out of the way of human nature. Do the right thing for god’s sake, it’s not that difficult.
Good stuff Libturd
A couple of years ago I stayed at the Westin Golf resort less than 5 miles from there as the crow flies. Tons of monkeys in the trees. Maybe someday I’ll go back to the Westin and can visit you while I’m there.
2:44 those are sweet…..
Definitely. I’m mostly trying to stay in companies without much debt. With respect to BGS, I’ve owned it since the end of 2008. They’ve maintained their dividends and increased them consistently. That’s why I’m sticking with them.
The market is insane, not even worth trying to make sense of such madness.
“From a math standpoint, this is screaming buy,” said Steven Dudash, president of IHT Wealth. “The only concern I have is people are going to start getting irrational. That’s when the emotional trading starts taking place.”
REFERRAL NEEDED ASAP
I need a commercial RE appraiser to do work in Monmouth County on a mixed use office/workshop space. Will involve not only current appraisal but historical valuation. This is for one of my clients.
Must be able to start ASAP and can generate work quickly.
You can email me at comradenomdeplume@gmail.com
Grim, if you have contacts, please sing out. This is real work, needed ASAP
If I don’t get someone by midday tomorrow, I have to hit the phone book. And I hate doing that.
Nom. Just texted a Colts Neck dad
I go no solid commercial names
Nom: guy texted back he can do it, but he is out with clients right now. He is a former GS NYSE floor trader that works with SITAR now out of Edison. He said he will email you in the AM.
Anybody that ever parrots this moronic phrase should never be allowed anywhere near a financial institution. You display a shocking lack of basic financial literacy with statements like this. I didn’t think it was possible for me to think any less of your intellect and yet you pushed through that floor once again.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 3, 2018 at 5:24 pm
If anyone listened to me on apple and amazon two weeks ago, congrats! No risk play with big reward. Like taking candy from a baby.
Anybody that ever parrots this moronic phrase should never be allowed anywhere near a financial institution. You display a shocking lack of basic financial literacy with statements like this. I didn’t think it was possible for me to think any less of your intellect and yet you pushed through that floor once again
Actually, Pumps would have sold before today’s 5% drop right?
Comment from the Costa Rica disappearance article on Yahoo
I am American, married to a Costa Rican. Lived there for a year and own multiple properties there. Its the safest Latin America country (i’ve traveled Latin America). First off Uber is illegal in Costa Rica! It was legal at first then it became illegal. So she was using illegal unregulated transportation. In Latin America especially in Nicaragua they have what is called “Pirate Taxis” these are illegal too and American’s get robbed by them all the time. So her taking a Uber was bad! I have friend in Costa Rica and I do use Uber there but it is always a friend of a friend who is the driver. I do not take a Uber that is picked randomly through the app…
Haha, so in short, Costa Rica is very safe, but they have pirate taxis that rob people all the time?
We ubered fine tonight. Not once did we feel unsafe this week. Well, except when ExPat thought our compact SUV was a Lamborghini.
Nah, would buy even more.
“Actually, Pumps would have sold before today’s 5% drop right?”
How is amazon and apple a risk? They shutdown, there goes the economy. They are basically monopolies. So big, they gobble up and absorb any threat.
Btw, suck it!
homeboken says:
December 4, 2018 at 10:27 pm
Anybody that ever parrots this moronic phrase should never be allowed anywhere near a financial institution. You display a shocking lack of basic financial literacy with statements like this. I didn’t think it was possible for me to think any less of your intellect and yet you pushed through that floor once again.
Apparently beaver face Phil is taking a stonewall posture regarding the accused rapist he was sheltering in his administration. He hasn’t said whether he will let his people testify but that’s pointless. It’s been established that he knew about the accusation early on.
He apparently must have thought that she was a typical climber and would take the big title in exchange for silence. That was a miscalculation to say the least. Which shows just how massively incompetent he is as a politician.
He did this to himself by grandstanding in the cavanaugh hearings where he had no business chiming in. Let this POS rot in his own malfeasance.
Btw, great illustration of the difference between left and right. When an accusation is made, peolple on the right call for due process and rights of the accused. On the left they form hysterical mobs and rush to judgment. It’s a pity when it blows up in their face
Amen.
I just want all these people arrested and removed from their job. The system is suffering under these cancers. It’s time to clean it up. Good people have to stop being scared of these individuals and take back the system. Someone has to get into politics with the sole mission of creating harsh laws on politicians and cops that are corrupt. Then take them down piece by piece. You can’t take them out all at once, have to do it slowly, chipping away until there is nothing left.
GdBlsU45 says:
December 5, 2018 at 9:25 am
Btw, great illustration of the difference between left and right. When an accusation is made, peolple on the right call for due process and rights of the accused. On the left they form hysterical mobs and rush to judgment. It’s a pity when it blows up in their face
Pumpkin . Blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah
Phil’s statement yesterday was idiotic, and clearly written weeks before the testimony. The fact it was even released after the damning testimony only further illustrates the incompetence.
Essex,
People with your attitude are the reason why these people are in power. Don’t worry, you are the norm, not the exception.
Where can I get some of whatever you are smoking? Must be some type of hallucinogen. Not saying left is better. Just that the depiction of the right is total bullsh*t!
GdBlsU45 says:
December 5, 2018 at 9:25 am
Btw, great illustration of the difference between left and right. When an accusation is made, peolple on the right call for due process and rights of the accused. On the left they form hysterical mobs and rush to judgment. It’s a pity when it blows up in their face
The left f.ucking s.ucks beyond belief. I can’t stand the liberal mentality.
Grim,
Are you referencing Smilin’ Phil’s statement that he “admires her bravery”? Clearly a let-them-eat-cake moment.
BTW, that headline was on the top of the nj.com page earlier. They took it down.
NJ Politics will eat you alive. I have no idea why anyone wants to be Governor of NJ. Most every Governor in recent decades has left office in disgrace.
Largely it is accurate 30 year. Look on college campuses. When the left opposes an idea, they turn into thrashing hysterical babies and demand the speakers be silenced. When the right opposes an idea, they formulate a rational response and present it. You might not like it but the emerging face of the party is anti intellectual and reactionary.
The new left doesn’t even believe in biology anymore. They believe in feelings.
Apparently, Thrashing is effective. The Right in France seems to have figured it out.
I consistently appreciate how this guy writes on the topic. I have to research whether he is bought off or really composes consistent with his beliefs…..
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
Dec. 4, 2018 6:41 p.m. ET
There are lessons in the media’s psychiatric moment last week over the newly published U.S. National Climate Assessment.
Let’s give the New York Times credit. It was braver than just about every other news organization when it said, in its lead sentence, the “damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end.”
I can’t figure out where the Times got this, but it’s the difference between, say, 2% and 1.86% annual growth over the next 82 years and happens to be about right. How does this justify the dire adjectives it was swathed in? It doesn’t. I suspect that’s why every other news report, including the Journal’s, relied on adjectives alone rather than giving numbers—because the numbers just aren’t that alarming.
What does the National Climate Assessment actually say? In 2090 the U.S. will experience annual climate-related costs of $500 billion. Notice that $500 billion, to echo a widespread misinterpretation of the Times report, is not 10% even of today’s economy (it’s 2.5%). It’s 10% of 1971’s economy.
Steven Koonin, a former Obama administration official and physicist, made a similar point last week on these pages. He calculates that, after climate costs and modest assumptions about growth, 2090’s economy would still be 3.8 times larger than today’s. If so, $500 billion in annual costs would amount to just 0.6% of GDP. Understand too that many costs enumerated in the report are not detractors from gross domestic product but contributors to it. Building a sea wall adds to GDP. Constructing a house to withstand 2090’s weather adds to GDP.
I have to post in pieces to figure out the filter
Weirder still, I saw not one news report that ventured to say what the expected temperature would be in 2090. Maybe that’s because doing so would reveal that these relatively bearable costs arise under a worst-case scenario for emissions, known as RCP 8.5, which would further undercut the media’s hysterical adjectives. This is a shame because all such studies, including the new U.S. assessment, show that the biggest threat to climate is a lack of prosperity.
In fact, RCP 8.5 is a model of emissions under conditions of economic stagnation. Trade, technology, global wealth and global per capita income stagnate. Demographic transitions to slower population growth don’t occur. Fracking is essentially uninvented. Countries burn impossible amounts of coal because that’s the only resource they have access to.
Notice how important these assumptions are. It’s a mouthful, but here’s what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says: “The second-to-lowest RCP” [with about half the emissions of RCP 8.5] is “consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself” (emphasis added).
That is, a fast-growing world is greener even if it’s not trying to cut carbon.
In France, the target of the rioters may be a new fuel tax, implemented by the government as a gesture of climate virtue. But as every news account tells us, what really is bringing them into the streets is 30 years of slow growth and chronic joblessness caused by towering taxes and antibusiness regulation.
Put aside scientific uncertainties, which we haven’t talked about. The clear lesson of last week’s U.S. government report and every other official assessment is that climate change is not the end of the world. We can handle the cost and we can also handle the cost of avoiding a portion of climate change through sensible tax policy. (It should not be necessary at this point to rehearse the case for a carbon tax that is simultaneously pro-growth and anti-carbon.)
Unfortunately the U.S. media have become a positive hindrance to public understanding. Consider that systemization of banality known as Axios. Last week it told its presumably politically engaged readership that the way to “be smart” about climate change is to understand that “In climate science, one side is the scientific consensus, and the other is a small but vocal faction of people trying to fight it.”
In other words, reduce everything to a binary question of believers vs. deniers, good guys vs. bad guys. Here’s the sad truth: This narrative is mostly an invention of journalists for their own convenience. It relieves them of having to understand a complicated subject.
I’m not trying to be funny. Over the past 15 or 20 years, the climate beat has been handed over to reporter-activists who’ve decided that climate science is impenetrable but at least nobody ever got fired for exaggerating the risks of climate change.
Their ignorant crisis-babble is why electorates everywhere now believe climate and prosperity are necessarily at odds. Every study, including the U.S. government’s latest, shows the opposite: Continued prosperity is essential to mitigating the risks of climate change.
Unfortunately the environmentalist left has only itself to blame for the developed world’s (not including the U.S.)
flight in the wrong direction.
wh0lesale
wow…..
wh0lesale
is verboten because it has h0le in it….
doh!
Speaking of h0les:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzoldDKdNj4
The most prescient comment on the Brennan stuff I saw on the nj.com comments is “the Salem witch trials ended when they turned on themselves.” Murphy must be able to relate at the moment.
And in other social justice news, the Princeton glee club wil no longer be singing “kiss the girl” from the little mermaid due to “toxic masculinity”. All the mixed up people objected and they are now calling the shots on campus.
Chi, even better, the smartest economic minds in the room with a hundred years of solid data can’t figure out whether an additional 25bp change in rate in six months will throw the economy from 3% GDP into negative territory.
But these other ‘scientists’ have nailed that, 82 years out, there will be a 10% effect.
I stopped reading after that and checked out of the debate. Amazing that people with a doctorate can simply have made up sh1t accepted at face value with some underlying, untested assumptions….
First year analyst at an IB would be fired for doing the equivalent in financial projections.
10:04 i’d Rather live in a free liberal state where you aren’t arrested for possessing weed. Than not….
Watching GHWB funeral, good to see Hillary still carrying the perma-sour puss. What a wicked, ugly soul she must have….
Chifi,
Thanks for the referral. I am getting bugged here for a name. Still did not see an email and my phone is acting up so did not see your text. Will reboot
Humans with relatively little technology were able to survive more extreme climate change than we are experiencing. Humans can adapt to any changes that are occuring and projected to occur. In fact, the time scale that those changes happen on are miniscule compared to the lifespan of a human being. Same goes for nature. The reports released by the UN are pretty laughable. They talk about widespread famine and starvation. Climate change over the past 100 years has positively affected the growing season. In fact, California has 50 more growing days than they did a century ago. California always touts how they can grow crops year round. The doomsday projects from climate change are completely laughable and people who do so have no faith in science, which includes many of the scientists themselves.
20 years from now, we’ll be growing much more food than we did today. Water purification will be much more advanced. That’s a fact. Oh yeah…and Florida will not be under water.
“D-FENS says:
December 5, 2018 at 10:11 am
NJ Politics will eat you alive. I have no idea why anyone wants to be Governor of NJ.”
Years ago, when Christie was running, I told friends that “we are having an election in New Jersey. Loser gets to be governor.”
A neighbor of mine is from France. He’s a contractor. He said, at one point, France tried to put additional hour into the work day to force them to work more because they took a full hour for lunch. They just ended up taking 2 hour lunches instead to compensate
Our plane hit a big bird on takeoff. Now eating a free $10 lunch (beer) and flying home through Houston. Will get home at midnight. As ExPat said, the early flight gets the bird! And we did get robbed by the Uber driver last night. Somehow the trip went from $10 to $19.
I spent 3 years on a 3 town Regional Flood Board, volunteer. Interacted with municipal, county,state and federal legislators and the Army Corp of Engineers.
Wrote letter to DEP about proposed development in flood plain, woops, developer was connected to town mayor, I was marched into township offices and told that I overstepped my charter authority (no) and that if the developer sued they would name me in the lawsuit and the town would pull their liability protection since I was out of the charter.
Now this was not my town, who I represented, this was the neighboring town, but I was the Chair. After that experience, I agree, stay away, I could not even volunteer safely!!
Chi, I consistently look forward to Mr. Jenkins, Jr. WSJ articles
Nom: texted guy again just now…… name is Joe A.
More building up of the ‘suburbs’
http://www.montclairlocal.news/wp/index.php/2018/12/05/new-housing/?fbclid=IwAR3kNolWZy0SfGNaRO3BW_9LYKItLhDAP9AlrgdUGKoBWd3cF0LOJJEiO0U
I can top that, 440+ townhomes, $649k to $799K
https://www.khov.com/find-new-homes/new-jersey/cedar-grove/07009/k-hovnanian-homes/hilltop-at-cedar-grove
Awkward…
The Obamas showed class…Clintons…not so much
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6463819/Hillary-Clinton-ignores-Donald-Trump-Melania-arrive-row-seats-Bushs-funeral.html
“French mass protests change government policy (fuel tax withdrawn). Demands expand to tax the wealthy. Successful mass protests have impacts far beyond France. Capitalism’s social inequality, economic instability and insecurity have finally provoked massive push back. System change emerging onto the historical agenda.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/05/france-wealth-tax-changes-gilets-jaunes-protests-president-macron
Push too far, and it gets out of control.
nom: he e-mailed at 12:30PM
That article is garbage. they twisted themselves in knots to blame capitalism for a fuel tax that was aimed straight at the working class to somehow save the world from climate change.
oops
@breaking9111
Following Following @breaking9111
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A town official says 24 workers at an Amazon fulfillment center in New Jersey were taken to hospitals, including one in critical condition, after a can of bear repellent fell off a shelf and discharged – CNN
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-protesters-are-part-of-a-global-backlash-against-climate-change-taxes/2018/12/04/08365882-f723-11e8-863c-9e2f864d47e7_story.html?utm_term=.027a7c5731da
The single most effective weapon in the fight against climate change is the tax code — imposing costs on those who emit greenhouse gases, economists say. But as French President Emmanuel Macron learned over the past three weeks, implementing such taxes can be politically explosive.
On Tuesday, France delayed for six months a plan to raise already steep taxes on diesel fuel by 24 cents a gallon and gasoline by about 12 cents a gallon. Macron argued that the taxes were needed to curb climate change by weaning motorists off petroleum products, but violent demonstrations in the streets of Paris and other French cities forced him to backtrack — at least for now.
Americans would riot too if they had to pay eight bucks a gallon.
Not garbage, it’s the truth. Do you know how high the unemployment rate is in France, especially for young people? Capitalism has a major flaw, because it doesn’t provide an opportunity for all to work, and that’s the problem.
When it’s only 4% of the population, they get away with it because no one gives a crap about complaints from 4% of the population. When you start hitting double digits, look out. Only a matter of time before they rebel against the system.
Everything stated here is not opinion, but fact.
D-FENS says:
December 5, 2018 at 1:38 pm
That article is garbage. they twisted themselves in knots to blame capitalism for a fuel tax that was aimed straight at the working class to somehow save the world from climate change.
D-FENS
Some people are dumb enough to blame higher taxes on capitalism. One of our board idiots blame the failings of state-run infrastructure on capitalism.
Now that the USSR is gone, and the history books and media gloss over the many historic and current failures of communism and statism, the intellectuals are again openly calling our for more of it.
Collectivism is historically a big killer, yet so many yearn for it as a moral ideal. It’s a good time to re-read The Fountainhead.
Oh, so this is so called “dead suburbs” 3b constantly references. How in the world is this still considered “suburbs?” Also, these towns are like 5-10 min from parts of Wayne. So how in the world is Wayne dead? You lost me a long time ago, but I’m the fool.
Mike S says:
December 5, 2018 at 1:02 pm
More building up of the ‘suburbs’
http://www.montclairlocal.news/wp/index.php/2018/12/05/new-housing/?fbclid=IwAR3kNolWZy0SfGNaRO3BW_9LYKItLhDAP9AlrgdUGKoBWd3cF0LOJJEiO0U
1987 Condo says:
December 5, 2018 at 1:07 pm
I can top that, 440+ townhomes, $649k to $799K
https://www.khov.com/find-new-homes/new-jersey/cedar-grove/07009/k-hovnanian-homes/hilltop-at-cedar-grove
No one,
I like capitalism, but let’s not act like it is perfect. Does it allow for 100% employment? That’s a problem, sir. Of course, you don’t fall into this category, so you don’t give two sh!ts.
And stop blaming govt for the failings of capitalism. Are you serious? For god’s sake, the government just saved capitalism from becoming extinct 10 years ago, by bailing out the economy. If they didn’t do that, say bye bye to the economic system known as capitalism. FACTS.
And let’s not forget about how govt got capitalism going by providing all the investment for infrastructure during the 1800’s. If the private sector is so f’n amazing on its own, why didn’t they address the problem on their own, but instead govt had to come and make the high risk investments in roads and canals. Btw, I think almost every private “turnpike” toll road created in the 1800s failed. They went bankrupt!
Let’s ignore the facts, and bash govt. Enough with this naive ignorant idea that the private sector can survive without the govt. Why does every major company employ legions of lobbyists? Why? Why does amazon need a f’n handout from the govt to successfully set up a business in a location?
Forgot to mention the railroads. How much did the govt have to subsidize to get those companies to build the tracks? They had to give them massive amounts of free land from the taxpayer to get the job done. Enough with the bs.
Only an ignoramus like Punkin would attribute the high unemployment rates of France (and Spain, Italy) to capitalism. But it’s what we have come to expect from this fool who is quick to offer his erroneous views with supreme confidence. People who actually know something about those countries would tell you it’s a combination of big welfare states and “pro-labor laws” like high minimum wages, difficult firing rules, high union power over the management of companies, which add up to making it very expensive to hire and fire people. Thus hiring has an unusually high hurdle in France and similar European countries, and the alternative of living on the dole is not so tough.
The biggest failure of capitalism is that market forces somehow allowed you to get a job as a “financial analyst”. Did you offer your boss some sort of sweetener to make up for your obliviousness?
BTW moron, did you know that many early canals and roads were privately financed and traded as stocks paying dividends? Did you know that America’s most successful railroad, the Great Northern Railroad was privately funded and didn’t count on subsidies? Did you know that government subsidies isn’t capitalism? Of course you don’t because you are a very special combination of ignorance and arrogance. You know virtually nothing but think you know everything, and even after years of being proven a fool you think yourself an economic sage for the ages.
So it’s a big welfare state when the money is used to help people survive, but it’s not a big welfare state when the money is used to enrich business owners/stock holders? Okay, I got it.
“it’s a combination of big welfare states”
So the things used to provide stability in society, and to help people are bad because it eats into the profit of the business owner? Why do people have to profit so much, and not only that, why do they have to have growth in this profit year after year? Does this make much sense to you? You care more about high profit than human beings, admit it. I believe in profiting, no doubt, but I don’t believe people should have to profit at a level that they become billionaires in a single lifetime. Wrap your head around that one if you can do math. It’s pretty insane.
““pro-labor laws” like high minimum wages, difficult firing rules, high union power over the management of companies, which add up to making it very expensive to hire and fire people.”
You gave me anomalies, and apply it like it’s the norm. The norm was bankruptcy. AkA failure. You are something else.
You also ignore the fact that the almighty private sector did not take up needed investments unless the so called failing govt waved dollar bills in front of their face. Tennessee valley authority….how much did the govt invest in this? How many so called private sector “do it all by my self” mumbling idiots became rich of these govt investments? And then go on to bash the very govt that made them rich for “taxing” them to help the overall country. Hypocrites and they don’t even know it.
Hoover damn… what role did that play in developing the west? How many people became wealthy off that investment?
You see, why hasn’t anyone in the private sector stepped up to build a privately owned and financed tunnel from nj to ny? Why will this fall on the hands of govt, and then the govt left with hearing people like you complain about the costs, when these complainers will make a ton of money off this investment in the economy?
“BTW moron, did you know that many early canals and roads were privately financed and traded as stocks paying dividends? Did you know that America’s most successful railroad, the Great Northern Railroad was privately funded and didn’t count on subsidies? Did you know that government subsidies isn’t capitalism?”
And don’t get me started with the benefit of investing in public education. There is not a business out there, that is not profiting off this investment. So don’t tell me public education is bs and not needed, the data says otherwise.
Pumps suburbs are dead dear. Montclair is not Wayne. 4 bed 3 bath houses in dead far away suburbs are not what today’s millennial s are looking for. Best you get on board dear.
XFL is back…and there’s a team in NJ
https://www.app.com/story/sports/2018/12/05/xfl-return-new-jersey-team-metlife-stadium/2215634002/
There is no mention of the Murphy scandal in the national media that I have seen.
3B – WSJ broke the story and Times ran a piece yesterday.
The other media namely CNN are too busy running stories on how Trump sucked the air out of the National Cathedral.
Thanks Juice. No outrage on FB yet.
Yep, a shame that this was built.
1987 Condo says:
December 5, 2018 at 1:07 pm
I can top that, 440+ townhomes, $649k to $799K
https://www.khov.com/find-new-homes/new-jersey/cedar-grove/07009/k-hovnanian-homes/hilltop-at-cedar-grove
The End Is Nigh (Nom Deplume Edition):
BOSTON – A very embarrassed Dorchester Historical Society keeps apologizing for its dumb holiday slogan: “We’re Dreaming of a White Dorchester.” Dorchester is historically a Puritan white neighborhood, but is now a six-mile stretch where two out of three residents are African-American. Local history buffs, now apparently making their own history, thought such a slogan would be a terrific way to entice people to its holiday open house, as it sent out printed invites to apparently everyone, the Boston Globe reports. The Boston mayor was quick to dismiss the slogan as “an honest mistake” by a small non-profit who clearly wasn’t thinking straight.
Right out of the fake news playbook is to ignore any story that does not advance the progressive agenda.
I think Murphy could still ultimately be sacrificed to preserve me too as an outrage generator. Plus nj is deep blue these days so nothing is lost in the big picture.
No One,
The USSR’s collectivism worked. Worked because of competition. Not within the USSR. But outside. Guess what self-proclaimed supermen billionaries fanboys of The Fountainheads’ nutty writer thought? They thought the simple fact that if the commies get in, they will take it away. So best to share than to lose it all.
Move to the present, no commies=no penalties for a plutocracy usurping everything it can.
No One wrote;
Now that the USSR is gone, and the history books and media gloss over the many historic and current failures of communism and statism, the intellectuals are again openly calling our for more of it.
Collectivism is historically a big killer, yet so many yearn for it as a moral ideal. It’s a good time to re-read The Fountainhead.
Speaking of France, Spain, and Italy. The issue is only partly the government climate of taxes and regulation. The elephant in the room is the currency union. Spain/Italy/France are difficult places to conduct business, normally this would be reflected in currency, allowing the economy to adjust. Being tied to the Euro eliminated this dynamic, increasing real wages while also increasing real costs and making manufacturing non-competitive in the Euro zone. At the same time opening the agriculture markets increased the price of agriculture goods in real terms for the populous. The economies of the med countries depended on insular manufacturing and lower cost food, this is why in short time the common currency created such problems for the poorer people in southern europe.
Macron’s tax artificially takes another expense and increases it drastically and would result in inflation in other goods and services as well. This is why the people are upset, they are already at their breaking point.
Dear Idiot Pumkin,
I have told you already that it was the Clinton’s fault for repealing glass-steagal that caused the crash 10 years ago yet you keep blaming capitalism like a moron. It was the governments fault.
How can you be so stupid? Oh yeah, it is that mental disorder you have that won’t let you accept the truth.
Just keep making up your “FACTS” out of thin air and ignorance.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 5, 2018 at 2:41 pm
And stop blaming govt for the failings of capitalism. Are you serious? For god’s sake, the government just saved capitalism from becoming extinct 10 years ago, by bailing out the economy. If they didn’t do that, say bye bye to the economic system known as capitalism. FACTS.
New Garden State Plaza owner, based in France, really struggling with their US malls. Does American Dream diminish Garden State Plaza, the most valuable property in the state?
In other Paramus news, one of the better headlines I’ve seen from local media.
https://www.nj.com/bergen/2018/12/awkwardly-named-serial-masturbator-lands-in-hospital-after-alleged-toilet-brush-incident-at-doctors-office.html
I don’t know what this reporter is saying, but they have taken amazing photos of the riots in France.
The one of the girl taking a selfie during the riot is a sign of the times.
https://varlamov.ru/3201988.html
I dunno, every time I go to visit family in Bergen County, I would like to stop at Garden State Plaza…unfortunately, it’s Sunday and closed. If they can circumvent the Blue laws like Christie suggested, I think they could attract some of the GSP saturday traffic to shop there Sunday
Bird strike this AM on takeoff, took out an engine. Had to take a later flight and connect through Houston. Just touched down in EWR.
The BUCK stops with Murphy. lol.
Given the mess that area is, I totally understand why people want the day off…… it is nice to have one day a week (especially a weekend day) without the madness…… besides…… the WASPs from Ridgewood can keep away the Jews from Monsey….
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
December 5, 2018 at 10:01 pm
I dunno, every time I go to visit family in Bergen County, I would like to stop at Garden State Plaza…unfortunately, it’s Sunday and closed. If they can circumvent the Blue laws like Christie suggested, I think they could attract some of the GSP saturday traffic to shop there Sunday
Saturday night at Freehold Raceway Mall is a scene from Fiddler On The Roof (Lakewood Edition)…….. nice way to break Shabbat…..
granted it was right before Rosh Hashanah
Given the mess that area is, I totally understand why people want the day off…… it is nice to have one day a week (especially a weekend day) without the madness…… besides……
I Paramus wants to have Sunday off…that’s fine. Actually, I don’t agree with it but I would think it would be less of an issue if they didn’t fight to shut down every other town in Bergen county as well. I don’t think they should be able to dictate what East Rutherford does.
I grew up in Bergenfield. It was annoying that the downtown Washington Ave was closed…despite you being able to walk to it. Traffic wasn’t an issue there.
Freehold Raceway Mall
I miss Roli Boli so much. I actually reversed engineered their deli boli and munchie boli to perfection because I had a 7 year craving. Took about 30 tries before I got it spot on.
Blue there are Bergen county blue laws and then towns have their own variation of blue laws. Paramus residents voted overwhelmingly to keep the malls closed on Sundays not for religious reasons but for one day of peace. I live right next to Paramus and I like that the stores are closed.
BRT,
There’s still Stuff Yer Face on Easton Ave. in New Brunswick. And of course, the blend-in next door at Thomas Sweet.
Yeah, I used to live down the street from Stuff Yer Face. IMO, the stromboli’s weren’t as good. Great buffalo chicken sandwich tho.