Don’t Fear The Reaper (or maybe you should)

From CNBC:

More signs point to a softer housing market, even as mortgage rates fall

Homebuilders and buyers alike are pulling back, even as mortgage rates fall to multiyear lows. The housing market is simply too pricey, and consumers are starting to worry about the economy and their personal finances.

Just 12% of adults said they plan to buy a home in the next year, according to a survey done in the second quarter of this year by the National Association of Home Builders. That is down from 14% in 2018.

“The drop marks the third consecutive year-over-year decline in the share of adults thinking about buying a home, providing further evidence of a slowdown in the housing market, as potential buyers are held back by the lowest levels of affordability in a decade,” wrote Rose Quint, NAHB’s assistant vice president for survey research.

The price squeeze is showing up also in who is planning to buy. Among prospective homebuyers, 58% were first-timers this year, compared with 63% last year. First-time buyers usually have less wiggle room in their wallets, and home prices are rising fastest on the lower end of the market.

Homebuilders are also not helping. The supply of newly built homes for sale fell 1% in the second quarter, the first annual drop in six years, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Prices for newly built homes have moderated, after 7 straight years of increases, but sales are up less than 1% annually.

Lower mortgage rates could help on the margins, but the reason behind those lower rates, namely growing fear of a recession in the U.S. economy, outweighs the benefit on a consumer’s balance sheet. Buying a home is an incredibly emotional experience, and potential buyers will often pull back when they have the slightest fear of losing their jobs or losing any income.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

39 Responses to Don’t Fear The Reaper (or maybe you should)

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. dentss dunnigan says:

    Fear the reaper …he’s coming for you …!

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How can there be a major recession when no one wants to risk their capital? Home builders won’t risk anything right now and they represent the mindset for most of the market. How can such a cautious market just go bust?

    “Homebuilders are also not helping. The supply of newly built homes for sale fell 1% in the second quarter, the first annual drop in six years, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Prices for newly built homes have moderated, after 7 straight years of increases, but sales are up less than 1% annually.”

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I hear more people giving advice to hold cash as opposed to invest. No one is attacking investments. The price of safe investments in the stock market are now expensive. Just go opposite, f the herd.

  5. grim says:

    What’s the bubble?


    Student Loans?



    Corporate Debt?


    It ain’t gunna be housing this time.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Healthcare is the biggest threat. I think the idiots got the message. You keep taking as opposed to controlling costs, then it’s single payer for you.

    China and trump want this to an end. I’m betting on them coming to agreement that will blast the market. China has no choice, they better realize it.

    Student loans…just not big enough of a problem to take down the economy.

    Pensions…that can take the economy down big time. They end the pension funds, there goes the stock market…and bad. Investors have been feeding off the workers pensions for decades…

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Corporate debt is a problem, but I don’t see them raising rates anytime soon.

  8. ExEssex says:

    Pensions are a timebomb. But no one will get out in front of that one until it’s a “crisis” i.e. no money to print checks. By that time, the boomers will be dead.

  9. No One says:

    Is private equity a bubble? Seems like pension funds are sending them lots of cash, and then that’s getting leveraged up further. Counting on stock markets to exit.

    The We Corp (WeWork) IPO document is unintentionally funny. Mission statement:
    “We are a community company committed to maximum global impact. Our mission is to elevate the world’s consciousness.”
    Meanwhile they are gushing losses and negative cashflow.

  10. ExEssex says:

    Welcome to Web ver.2 where the cashflow is nonexistent but the founders are woke.

  11. Grim says:

    Tech is always bubbling.

    Raising funding is always 75% bullshit.

  12. GdBlsU45 says:

    I would add brick and mortar apocalypse to the list. E-commerce is taking a toll, which will be felt into the real economy eventually. Replace 100 retail people with one techie writing code and one robot packing boxes.

  13. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    New York, Philadelphia business indexes show solid gains despite recession fears

    Key business activity indexes for both New York and Philadelphia pointed to continued expansion in August amid worries that the U.S.-China trade war was dampening growth prospects.

    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey was expected to show a reading of 0.5 while the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey was projected at 8, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

    Both readings were well above expectations, with the New York gauge posting a 4.8 reading, while the Philadelphia reading was 16.8.

    To be sure, both were declines from July readings, but they were solidly in growth territory. The indexes measure businesses reporting expansion against those contracting.

    On the New York side, new orders and shipments both expanded, despite concerns that tariffs would dampen activity. Indeed, the report indicated that an increase in input prices actually slowed during the month while selling prices were little changed.

    Respondents did indicate less optimism about the future, though the difference was still solidly positive, with 42.6% seeing stronger conditions against 16.9% weaker. That’s a difference of 25.7 points, lower than the 30.8 in July. Hiring,m meanwhile, was still negative, with a net difference of 1.6 points in number of employees, though that was a sharp improvement from July, when the difference was minus-9.6 points.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    The media, the gender confused muppets and the low IQ crowd are rooting for recession. What else can the progressives use for ammunition? Stormy? Collusion? He’s a racist? What is their platform? Free everything? Sanders is a raving lunatic and Biden has dementia – that’s going to motivate anyone with half a brain?

  15. GdBlsU45 says:

    Recession will crush nj state gov. Be careful what you wish for.

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  17. 30 year realtor says:

    Fast Eddie,

    Us against them? Is this what you really believe. If people are not with Trump they are rooting for financial hardship? They don’t love this country?

  18. 30 year realtor says:

    Yesterday saw Trump on the news talking about how Mitch McConnell love this country. This is a continuation of the theme regarding the 4 members of Congress.

    If you are not with Trump you don’t love this country. Sickening!

  19. ExEssex says:

    President Trump is the only true patriot.
    He’s not a grifting moron.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    They don’t love this country?

    Correct. They’re angry, disappointed that they don’t fit in somehow so they paint their hair pink and stomp on the flag like petulant children. Most on the left are awkward… either outwardly rebelling or dwelling with sadness and frustration within. Life isn’t fair, one needs to swallow hard, dry the tears and keep moving forward. Don’t expect anyone to bend to accommodate yourself. If it happens, great! But don’t demand others to conform in order to soothe your weakness and don’t extort them for money.

  21. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    What about the Trump bubble? You know. The one where you don’t pay taxes if you repatriate earnings supposedly earned overseas (you know, like Apple profits in Ireland) on top of the giant corporate ass kissing which resulted in a huge buyback of shares which juiced earnings. Where will the future earnings come from?

    And if the economy is so great, why are there so few gains at all but at the tippy top of the food chain. Credit card and student debt are at all time highs.

    Nothing to see here.

  22. abeiz says:

    I am considering reorganizing as a LLC w/s-corp status. I’m creating a better mousetrap and would like there to exist an arms length relationship between myself and my employer as I continue to work on this. I read that Trump’s tax law is here through 2025 and am curious if an incoming administration can undo these changes earlier. Any chance the 20% deduction on pass through income can be rolled back earlier than this?

  23. chicagofinance says:

    I need help….

    CGC….. it broke through $32-area….. big move….. where would you buy it in here… I don’t see anything to trade against….

  24. No One says:

    have you looked at the financial statements on this thing?

  25. 30 year realtor says:

    Eddie, So no one had a legitimate complaint? Conform or be marginalized? If you aren’t part of the ruling minority, get the f*ck out!

    People who believe that hate this country!

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  27. chicagofinance says:

    reverse inquiry from client; currency trader….. all he cares about are levels, trends and RSI’s……. I need to get his jollies out; main focus is to restructure his whole life insurance polices…….. vampires from XXXXXXX Life are hitting up for $90K/year in premiums from what they sold…… I could actually kill people sometimes……

    No One says:
    August 15, 2019 at 12:55 pm
    have you looked at the financial statements on this thing?

  28. leftwing says:

    LOL, I posted in yesterdays topic….repost, actually topical to todays subject…

    Released today. Some interesting snippets…

    SFH view on present sales basically at LTM high
    Forward six months view not at same relative high
    Forward six months gap between present/forward at LTM high
    Traffic finally breaks 50 again

    Northeast weakest view with highest level of volatility
    On rolling 3M, northeast declines, other areas flat/increasing

    Look at Table 5, regional History. Interesting how you can see the timing and rollout by region of recovery. Interesting point here, Midwest and West started an unmistakable decline in 2018.

  29. leftwing says:

    “What’s the bubble? Equities? Student Loans? China? Healthcare? Corporate Debt? Pensions?”

    You forgot my choice, (g). All of the above lol.

  30. 1987 condo says:

    How much are we paying for Generac generator installation these days? 2000 sq foot 4 bedroom, central a/c. Thx

  31. leftwing says:

    Chi, like we discussed when it was back near 40, there was a ton of black space on the chart for this thing to fill. Again, I’m no technician and this stock (sector) is literally the equivalent of spinning a roulette wheel but if forced to play this game again my eye would see a potential support line at 25….Now, should we discuss the dozen reasons on the other side of the ledger to not get involved here….

    Seriously, tell your client to throw his cash in Draftkings instead. They’ll give him an immediate $2500 ROI and it will make watching August baseball and the Mets late summer run more interesting ;)

  32. ExEssex says:

    The only question is where are the kids? Seriously….could be fine as a single but moving a family there?

  33. JCer says:

    1987 on a generator you probably would want a 20kw standby generator with the automatic transfer switch for 2000 sqft. Anywhere between 8k-12k depending on the difficulty of installation, the generator itself is ~4k, then you have the installation, the electrician, plumber, etc. If it is easy, i.e you have a place close to your panel to install with a sufficient size gas line nearby it will be less than 10k. CAC is what makes you need such a big generator, I run my entire house minus the 2 CAC units and the double oven on a 9KW portable generator(lighting, TV’s, dishwasher, washer, dryer, 20 cu ft freezer, 48in subzero, 20cu ft refrigerator, radiant heat). I can’t even start one of my AC units with 10kw, I’d need 30+ KW to run both CAC and the house loads probably 36 kw. Given the number of times I’d need it I can’t justify it(both power out and high heat for any length of time).

  34. MikeNJ says:

    1987 – I have a Kohler 20kw that I paid all in around $7k for a few years ago. I got a deal because I was already redoing my house and so this was simply an add on. Usually 3-5k more. I would go Kohler over Generac, better engines. My 20kw runs both CACs and the rest of the house easily. The price difference between a 14kw and 20kw kohler is negligible so I went with the larger unit so I can run extension cords to my neighbors and never worry. We had a mini sandy in my neighborhood last fall, 4 days without power! Worth every penny.

  35. 1987 condo says:


  36. Libturd, still in Union, mainly on Thursdays, wasn't me in Walmart says:

    I have An 8 year old Champion. 4,000 watts peak. Runs on unleaded. Has a 10 gallon tank. Can safely run one 12,000 BTU window AC unit or gas heat. Also, two normal fridges, ONT, Router, 65″ TV, a couple of lights and a charging station. Total cost: $350 and a handful of few high end extension cords. Annual maintenance? Zero. If generator breaks? I invest another $350. Suck it!

  37. JCer says:

    Lib same here chinese 9kw(you can’t kill the chonda), the thing is cheap is all get out $600 all in, my house came with a plug and transfer switch. No maintenance besides dumping the oil every 30 hrs, we have friends who pay more than 600 for annual maintenance on their generators.

  38. 1987 Condo says:

    Thanks for the info. I am considering a backup gen in the case that I start spending winters away from NJ in the future. This way I can monitor remotely and not worry about frozen pipes, etc.

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