Millennials want homes?

From CNBC:

Older millennials are driving home prices higher again

They may have waited longer than previous generations, but millennials are now showing a strong desire to become homeowners, especially older millennials. That is strengthening overall demand for the limited supply of homes for sale, and consequently reigniting the fire under home prices.

Home price gains had been shrinking over the last year, but the increases turned higher again this summer. Home prices were up 3.6% in July compared with July 2018, according to CoreLogic. That is stronger than the 3.4% gain in June. CoreLogic is now predicting an even larger 5.4% annual gain by July 2020.

“Sales of new and existing homes this July were up from a year ago, supported by low mortgage rates and rising family income,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “With the for-sale inventory remaining low in many markets, the pick-up in buying has nudged price growth up. If low interest rates and rising income continue, then we expect home-price growth will strengthen over the coming year.”

More than a quarter of the nation’s largest generation said they were interested in buying a home in the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by CoreLogic with RTi Research during the first half of this year. The problem is there is still precious little for sale, and supplies are falling once again. At the end of July, the inventory of homes for sale was nearly 2% lower compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. There was just a 4.2-month supply of homes for sale. A six-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers.

“A growing number of millennials are expressing an interest in buying homes, reinforcing the theory that this cohort is continuing to engage within the housing market,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “But, with so few homes available for sale, the imbalance has created an affordability crisis that is getting worse every day. Demand exceeds supply and we’re unsure of when the two will balance out.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

58 Responses to Millennials want homes?

  1. Juice Box says:

    Going to need to take a chainsaw to regulations to give the Millenials government backed mortgages since they seem broke.

  2. Juice Box says:

    The Millienial Mortgage, payments for a century starting at the average age of 46!

  3. 1987 Condo says:

    Jobs: + 130,000

    June revised down 15,000
    July down 5,000

    U/E: 3.7%

    Wages: 3.2% yoy

  4. 3b says:

    Juice: you beat me to it with the 46 comment!!

  5. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I had to sit one of my millenial friends down to show them how they don’t build much equity in the initial phase of the mortgage. They were under the impression that it was a set percentage.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Wages rising twice the rate of inflation. I have recruiters calling me based on a resume I haven’t updated in 7 years.

  7. Not Eddie says:

    Calling you with real jobs Eddie and what about the wage? Same, higher or lower?

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    30 year,

    By the way, the neighbor’s sister who asked if I’m interested in selling my home is offering to buy in an all cash deal… she doesn’t require a pre-approval. I need to tell myself nothing in order to feel good. When you walk in my house, it tends to sell itself.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    Not Eddie,

    I don’t discuss wages. I have a general idea based on the call. I’m interested in the position first and I’m interested in who I might be working for though that will emerge at an interview. I don’t want to work for a miserable f.uck. Whatever money I make will make me additional money anyway. A 5K or 10K difference either way doesn’t matter to me.

  10. Juice Box says:

    I am hearing the chainsaws starting up folks! Rhhhhummmmm, Rhuuummmm

    “The U.S. Department of the Treasury released a plan to reform the housing finance system Thursday it says is designed to protect American taxpayers against future bailouts.

    The government spent $190 billion taxpayer dollars bailing out the Government sponsored enterprises or GSEs in 2008. They are the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac).

    Treasury says the new reforms preserve the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and, “help hard working Americans fulfill their goal of buying a home.”

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a press release, “An effective and efficient Federal housing finance system will also meaningfully contribute to the continued economic growth under this Administration.”

    The Treasury Department report says, “While this plan includes both legislative and administrative reforms, Treasury’s preference and recommendation is that Congress enact comprehensive housing finance reform legislation.”

    The report strives to clarify the government’s role supporting the housing market. “Stability in the housing finance system is crucial, and generally counsels in favor of preserving what works in the current system,including the longstanding support of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan,” it says.

    Among the proposals Treasury recommends:

    Congress repeal the existing statutory definitions relating to the GSEs’ regulatory capital that restrict FHFA’s (Federal Housing Finance Agency) discretion in prescribing regulatory capital requirements and those definitions should not be incorporated into future legislation.

    FHFA’s eventual regulatory capital requirements should require that each guarantor, or each GSE pending legislation, be appropriately capitalized by maintaining capital sufficient to remain viable as a going concern after a severe economic downturn and also to ensure that shareholders and unsecured creditors, rather than taxpayers, bear losses.

    FHFA’s eventual regulatory capital requirements also should include a simple,transparent leverage restriction that supplements the risk-based capital requirements.”

  11. Juice Box says:

    Interesting write up on the Fannie and Freddie plan. Senior Preferred stock in these two companies is way up on speculation.

  12. Bystander says:


    There are enough people here countering that the jobs are not paying as well. It is not a political agenda. It is fact.Wages are all that matter. Have a conversation on that one..but let me start with a premise that $125k is not a great salary for experienced IT role in NYC area. We have disagreed on his point. Frankly I made that money 13 years ago in my early 30s. By experience, I mean 10 years +. Does job expect newer tech skills, multi project / program support, and glob staff management? Does it require SME knowledge in trade processing or accounting standards etc? Those are high level responsibilities that $125k should not get you. I know single focused BAs that make $125k. I had a very nice call with American recruiter yesterday for Sr It PM. She wanted all those things and pay was $125k top with 10% max bonus. This was at multi-billion reinsurance Co in CT. She agreed that pay was lower but they will find someone. In a competitive market, you would be offering 150k to 175k plus bonus for that role.

  13. Walking bye says:

    Juice box what exactly are they trying to say in the USTreasury announcement? Seems like it could have been stated in 2 sentences – bank shareholders are on the hook for future mortgage loan losses, and loans should be made available to all by limiting too good to be true loans which victimize the average borrow.

    I remember trying to explain mortgage Amortization to a millennial. How early on in a 30 year mortgage it all goes to interest. He was amazed stating the rich guy is pulling a fast one on the average Joe. I kept trying to explain it with the math but got nowhere and gave up. He was convinced banks were no different than the street hustler taking you $ in 3 card Monty. How it was unfair etc and the government should stop this.

  14. Walking b says:

    Bystander, I heard an interesting comment on Bloomberg today. Basically stating that as they older boomer workforce retires they are being replaced by far younger workers than in past markets. Therefore wages have been suppressed as you are not filling those positions with higher wage experienced employees. Plus side
    I am starting to see some pharma job recruiters calling me for NJ. Not as much as I see in the Carolinas but it’s a positive sign. I’m having a feeling the warehouse engineering jobs along 95 are taking a toll on pharma talent. Had a couple of NJ calls for $150 to $175) (These are manufacturing engineering /control ops jobs fwiw)

  15. Bystander says:


    Absolutely. That is crux here. I worked with lots of 55 to 65 years old who could not do an Excel pivot table if you asked them. They had great careers and now nice houses. I have been part of many SDLC style Oracle migrations but businesses now want Agile style, Postgres to Cloud skillsets. They want to skip the part of heavy lifting of actually aligning to do that move and paying for it. Sure they will pay gobs to CTO who promises Cloud world on pretty slides. They want to bring the 30 year old who talks fancy Kubernetes framework strategies and pay him 125k. He has no home, kids and loving life at 125k. They now treat standard database products as dinosaur level. Like I said last 5 years, things have changed drastically in terms of career and leverage in finance space.

  16. Fast Eddie says:


    I think we’re sort of in the same ballpark when it comes to job function or at least, under the same umbrella. My day to day tasks include primarily technical assistance/support/troubleshooting/installation/testing but I’m also firmly involved with the science of what we do, without giving away too much here. :) My pay scale is less than what a project manager might command, past or present. It’s hard to describe what I do, maybe a hybrid. I’m not disputing that the pay scales overall are lacking, it’s just that I’m more concerned about going to a job I enjoy and one that makes me sleep at night.

  17. Libturd, still in Union, mainly on Thursdays, soon to be daily. says:

    “mortgage Amortization ”

    The only shortcoming of me shortening the term on my mortgages via refinancing. For one loan, I’m on my 3rd refinance. Started 30 year, 7 years later down to 20 year and 2 years later down to 15 year. Each refinance sent me back to paying almost no principal. Even in the 3rd refinance which was, 9 years since the original 30 year, I had paid just about nothing down.

  18. JCer says:

    Bystander the thing is the standard DB’s have been extremely commoditized and the big outsourcing vendors can get you as many SQL server or Oracle people as you want for $200 a day. Cloud people do not exist at Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant in the offshore space. That will change as the demand appears. Cloud come with challenges but fundamentally is transformative, many of the challenges you traditionally face in the datacenter go away because it is elastic and you can scale out, scale up, and then scale down.

    Fortunately or Unfortunately depending on who you are the mindset is quite different and the designs need to be fundamentally different to really leverage what the cloud can do, heavy expense to migrate. Oh and the kid talking Kubernetes, Docker, et al is probably making 150-200k if they have any experience. Let’s face facts nothing in your own data center can do what Dynamo or BigQuery can do with regards to scaling data and based on what we’ve seen the network performance between AZ’s in AWS is better than our internal network within our data center. But have no fear traditional companies like banks have such an environment that they have truly bungled agile development so the cloud isn’t far behind.

    It seems at the moment experienced tech people, who can do real tech are commanding contracting rates averaging about 1k per day. The market for developers is still pretty tight unless you are going to a body shop who brings them over in a shipping container.

  19. Juice Box says:

    Only thing you need to know about the Treasury announcement is this.

    “Stability in the housing finance system is crucial” Translation – There will be no asset deflation

    “An effective and efficient Federal housing finance system will also meaningfully contribute to the continued economic growth under this Administration.”

    Translation – We are going to privatize this bitch. There is going to be a massive wealth transfer, and Congress cannot do anything about it.

  20. Juice Box says:

    Postgres – yup FU Oracle and Microsoft. I want my database to be zero cost.

    We have a cadre of walking dead Oracle and MS SQL folks here. They also refuse to learn the new tech as well. I warn them all the time but the older people get the more they get set in their ways. I tell them stories of the legions of folks that no longer work in IT because their skill sets are stone age. What do I get from them blank stares and crickets……chirp chirp chirp….

  21. Bystander says:


    Agree from a job satisfaction standpoint. I would give up some money to have a good boss. In fact, my boss and team are great and my commute is perfect. That said, I took 10% cut to make this work. It might be more if we get sh*tty bonus which is looking likely. I also took step down in level bc they will not hire more senior IT levels in US. Take it or leave it. The hiring rules and restrictions are unheard of, even compared to great recession. Lots of old timers here tell me so. It is everywhere too.

  22. JCer says:

    Juice between Postgres and MySQL, sometime around the year 2012 they reached feature parity and close enough performance to Oracle or SQL server for on-prem forget it. SQL Server the ace in the hole is Azure, MS has made an attractive path to cloud for existing SQL server based apps. This is purely about migration path for legacy.

    The next generation of apps are likely not built in a traditional DB, SQL db’s exploded(around the turn of the century) frankly into place they never should have and now we will see the opposite. Places where and ACID SQL DB should be used will be going noSQL. Database tech is commoditized and there is little difference between any of the databases, and DBA’s are kind of disappearing as everyone wants to move to managed cloud. Being a SQL developer is low paid work at this point I can get decent people in the third world(india, phillipines, vietnam, romania….) to do it for $15 an hour, the same is not true for HTML5, Java, Python, Go, JS/node……

  23. Juice Box says:

    I am on an Azure project now for a virtual data center, the walking dead have no idea and don’t seem to care

  24. Bystander says:


    Agree. Those are the facts of IT today but the bigger point is that all technology has been commoditized. Telling a 50 year to learn AWS is a zero sum investment if you are competing with a labor pool that has a billion more people. There will always be younger, cheaper talent who can learn AWS same as you. Sure it might keep you in game longer but I might think about moving somewhere much cheaper, working for a small company that can’t get Wipro contracts and taking a big pay cut.

  25. Libturd, still in Union, mainly on Thursdays, soon to be daily. says:

    It’s scary listening to all of your IT talk and seeing the parallel in the company I work for. Fortunately, not in IT. :P

  26. Mike S says:

    At this point as a developer you better understand a few of the following + understand your business + want to work many hours.
    ReactJS, Spring Boot, Cloud, Big Data, AI/ML
    If you don’t understand any of these – consider yourself a few years behind.

    As an IT Professional you need to constantly be learning every year. If you stop learning you will go obsolete, or just get paid a lower wage to maintain 20 year old systems

  27. JCer says:

    Bystander, here is the thing the big vendors are always approximately 4 years behind in terms of the latest tech. The next thing is the tech is only getting more complex and the people need to have deep understanding of computer science. From what I’ve seen, you can hire programmers or IT people overseas but for the most part the training overseas is really lacking especially in India, most university education over there is roughly equivalent to a bad community college, you should see the way most respond to some of this newer tech. I’ve found the database people to be serviceable but the developers are pretty much outright bad. The level of understanding around data, processor architectures, networking, data transmission is pretty sad. Even our top architects in India cannot seem to grasp a lot of this stuff, I look at the designs and pretty much know they will fall over. They build them and eventually reach that conclusion, don’t get me started on the politics, we have lost a lot of our top architects in the US over this.

    The value of the resource here is superior english language skills, desirable time zone, deeper business knowledge. The management is fundamentally dumb, your tech companies are not working like this. Subpar talent costs you dearly in a technology project, offshoring loses it’s lustre once you realize how much lost productivity there is by teams being far away from the users both in distance and culturally.

    Technology comes and goes people who can learn, who can think, and who can design are critical to any project. No amount of offshoring can change this, lets face this are the smartest people still in India or any other 3rd world country or have they figured out how to get out. Based on what I’ve seen the smartest people over there figure out how to get out why do a job for 35k, when you can come here, Canada or Europe and make 2-3x the salary in a country with actual infrastructure where it’s not 110 degrees. My Indian friends have all told me the same thing the opportunity is greater here, these are smart people, life is much better in the US.

  28. GdBlsU45 says:

    I think cloud is a safe bet going forward if you want to refresh skills and chase a buck.

    It superior to the in On prem model so substantially in terms of cost and agility that everyone will be forced to adopt in on order to compete. That’s another 10+ years of work.

    It’s also reason to keep buying amzn and msft stock. Cloud is the ultimate vendor lock-in. When these companies decide there is no realistic competition remaining they will fatten the margins.

  29. Mike S says:

    JCer is 100% correct.

  30. Juice Box says:

    API and SaaS is what you need to know. ReactJs and Spring Boot is already old old news.

    SaaS has dramatically lowered the cost of ownership for adopting software, and solved scaling challenges. In short SaaS allows a business to focus primarily on just that “business” and simultaneously reduced the cost and time required to run IT operations.

    We put a 200 TB DB up in Azure using the data box to test it, works like a charm. The DBAs and programmers here are struggling with small stuff in the GB range and fight via email all day and night arguing about how to get decent performance. I say get rid of the people who argue.

    API is the way business is being done now as well. Must be an API all the backed stuff matters not so don’t fight over the platform. AWS, Azure, GCP etc. The next gen Serverless PaaS tech is only going getting better and better.

  31. Bystander says:

    Just remember the Cloud gave us JLaws b*nghole. I work with barrier/sensitive staff/ MD disclosure information. Good luck with that banks.


    Well put. We all know the house cards built like the Taj Mahal will fall..just when? Banks care about making money..and not losing money via opportunity loss or violations. Low yield environment, algo/ETF cost pressures are hurting profits. Dodd Frank and FATCA are in rear view mirror. I don’t think they care if Cloud comes in 1 year or 5 years. They want cheapest source possible now. The outsourcers will lie through their teeth on skillsets but at 200/day and no pressure to complete it then why spend 1000 in US? Until the temp heats up, tech wages are dead in US. You would laugh if I showed you are deliverable to date. It is a joke.

  32. JCer says:

    GdBlsU, the savings is huge. My system alone we will save 600k per year in infrastructure costs for one big client. Once we move the other clients it will be almost 2m per year. That’s the lever that is moving businesses in the direction of cloud, the traditional sizing exercise that leaves you with idle hardware at most times is going away. Most enterprises even big ones are poor at running data centers, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are really that much better at running them and they have tremendous scale. Staying on-prem will be for very limited use cases. Multi-cloud deployment and fail-over is the holy grail that no-one has really accomplished. By offshoring our developers we saved approximately 75k per head before considering travel and additional overhead(managers/coordinators) which probably knocks it down to 60k, the loss of efficiency purely driven by time zone is 20%(I’ve seen it first had we sent one of our people back, his productivity dropped, same person and same work but the distance from product folks and the clients has a marked effect). The savings is probably 35-40k per head and also funny these devs don’t have to do support. In the US the developers needed to do the after hours support, so we needed to add a team of 5 support engineers to handle off hours, that adds about 75k per year. so figure a 400k savings for the 10 developers-75k added support costs the savings from offshoring is only 325k and that doesn’t account for all of the overhead for our india operations.

    The cloud savings are far greater than the offshoring savings for many many projects……..

  33. JCer says:

    Yes Juice that’s how you get the gaudy savings. The Platform as a service offerings on the cloud basically are giving you access to the data architectures the major tech companies use for little more than what you’d pay for the infrastructure alone. There are real considerations on how you can use it but essentially you are doing things in a way that isn’t possible on-prem. In their purview 200tb is peanuts this stuff is all built for petabyte scale.

    Bystander well aware of the security implications and the complexity that adds. The solutions exist, data is end to end encrypted, encrypted at rest with rotating keys, and there is a sort of circuit breaker in place by having the keys for your KMS reside on prem. Furthermore you can design your system to keep limited information in the cloud. Our cloud is 100% hands off literally there is no access to anything outside of dev it adds a lot of complexity because automation needs to be in place for everything from environment stand-up to maintenance and troubleshooting.

    Spring boot is crap, nothing revolutionary there, React is front end and is relevant but will be fleeting like angular, UI tech changes fast. The cloud is in it’s infancy the marketplace offerings that run on the cloud will only get better and better.

  34. GdBlsU45 says:

    These things converge at some point soon.

    If you think your corporate security is better than aws security with ml at every level I think your wrong or soon will be. It is a more secure model. And their dedicated team of hundreds with the tools at their disposal are better than whatever you got.

    The ai component of cloud computing is still nascent imo but it’s a killer feature. Beside the cost If you can’t leverage the best ai apis going forward you will become obsolete quickly

  35. Bystander says:


    Next up, Employees as temporary managed, external and shared service. Acronym EatMeAss.

  36. Juice Box says:

    re: security in the cloud – It’s better and worse.

    AWS, GCP, Azure are all FIPS validated, issue is there are extra costs people don’t consider or bother with.

    The Capital One hack in the news is the perfect example. A mis-configured WAF in and a SSRF attack. This would have been prevented if Capital One purchases some of the additional ala carte security services AWS offers Access Advisor,GuardDuty, Amazon Macie etc.

    Macie is the really cool ML tech, it will find and protect your data in in S3.

  37. Juice Box says:

    It’s not a stretch to say the IT Execs at all the big banks are now all lining up in front of the diving board to the cloud. At the Gartner conference I attended a few months ago a startup was pitching a blockchain future to data security.

  38. Juice Box says:

    And the big players are also pitching Blockchain driven security as well.

    One of the more notable ones trying hard now to make a business out of Blockchain.

  39. Juice Box says:

    Bystander – Gates article this year in MIT tech review was all about having AI assistant doing work for you so you can enjoy a life of leisure which today translates in to drinking coffee and touching glass.

  40. ExEssex says:

    3:23 or cruising the coast in Malibu with the top down . Gorgeous out 2day.

  41. Bystander says:


    Reminds me of one of best movies of last decade – Her. Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlet Johanson. Perfect, beautiful, poignant about our future world.

  42. Juice Box says:

    Bystander – Here is SCIF short on the same vein our future with AI. 13 minute watch.

  43. leftwing says:

    “Next up, Employees as temporary managed, external and shared service. Acronym EatMeAss.”

    Busted a gut on this one. You should grab the website domain and trademark it.

    Twelve bucks lol.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was so ahead of the game on my calls. I’m glad to see people waking up to the reality that the Great Pumpkin made an amazing economic call 10 years out. Boo yah!!

    The roaring 20’s 2.0. Gotta love this opening article by grim supporting my positional evidence I provided year over year, but was laughed at and ignored. These people are only getting it now…

    Juice Box says:
    September 6, 2019 at 9:33 am
    I am hearing the chainsaws starting up folks! Rhhhhummmmm, Rhuuummmm

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tell them!!

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 6, 2019 at 9:23 am
    Wages rising twice the rate of inflation. I have recruiters calling me based on a resume I haven’t updated in 7 years.

  46. Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:

    When inflation is deflation. It won’t buy you a pot to piss in. When the market crashes (and it will) and you are feeling max pain. I will be glad to remind you how this time it’s NOT different.

  47. Libturd, still in Union, mainly on Thursdays, wasn't me in Walmart says:

    HBD G!

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This just sold and less sq footage than mine. Do you see what an appealing home does for the sale price? I’m not saying mine is worth that, I’m simply showing the difference in price between an appealing home and a pos.

  49. Libturd says:

    I’ve never seen a highway named a court before!

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:


    It is what it is. You can take my word for it, or think I’m full of ah!t like the position you usually take and end up wrong. The point of the post was that desirable homes can’t be priced using avg data because the homes are not avg.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That house sold over 300 per sq foot. Not bad Wayne. That’s the point you missed.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Btw, if we are comparing homes….my home has three levels of wood flooring. This house has carpet and still commanded that price.

  53. Bystander says:

    That house is ugly POS. Looks like some three some stacked stone on bi level. That driveway must have cost a bomb. No doubt purchased by some Eastern European family. They eat that faux grandeur up.

  54. 1987 Condo says:

    You can see the “before” picture, so I guess they wanted to match the house next door so they painted it, added stone and matching pavers.

  55. 3b says:

    Lib like the positions you take that are usually wrong. What can you say? Just shake your head. It’s truly amazing!

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I agree, not my taste, but just because I don’t like it, doesn’t make it undesirable. That’s the Achilles heel for this group. Your approach is too smart and sometimes causes you to miss it.

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