From the very rarely cited Fox News:
NYC housing prices in near ‘free fall,’ conditions mirror recession era following tax hikes
The Manhattan real estate market stumbled in the third quarter of 2019, new reports show, as prices plunged and fewer buyers were willing to purchase higher-priced properties in the wake of two recent tax increases.
The median sales price for properties fell 17 percent from the same quarter last year, to $999,950, according to new data from CORE. The average sales price dropped 12 percent, to $1.64 million.
Condo sales fell 8 percent, logging 946 transactions. Co-op sales, on the other hand, were up a modest 2 percent year over year.
“The third quarter of 2019 was undoubtedly the most challenging quarter in recent memory, especially for condo sales,” Garrett Derderian, managing director of market analysis at CORE, said in a statement. “Market prices have gone from what was once described as the kindest, gentlest correction to a near free fall. The last time conditions were described in such a way was in the height of the recession.”
First
I thought Trump’s entire presidency revolved around the return of blue collar jobs? Three years in and he’s managed to return the ISM to where it was back when “W” imploded the economy.
Trump’s life has been riddled by failure after failure. One of his first successes was that stupid television show where he fired everyone. And the masses of asses in this country felt this qualified him to run the country. Sadly, it appears all he is good at is firing everyone.
I know it’s anecdotal, but the country sure isn’t great for my nieces and nephews who recently graduated. My oldest nephew is now making $30K a year teaching at a charter school in Ewing NJ. His sister, an honors graduate from Rutgers, is now working retail. My other nephew, he cooks at Panera. The parents of these kids are in the 1% easily.
No more Chinese money no more Russian money Less from other places that kills the NYC market for sure .
The Panera kid is still in school, but still. Me thinks the bottom is about to fall out!
What subject does your nephew teach? What did your nieces and nephews major in?
In 2008, when I graduated there were no jobs as all the pharma companies were shutting up shop. Thousands of unemployed people in my field simultaneously. I turned to teaching as a possible temporary fix. I was able to find a few weekend/night jobs and a summer job on top of that.
Fast forward 10 years, I was able to double my salary and build a solid tutoring business where I have to regularly turn down about $400 of work outside of school every week.
My siblings are all working crappy jobs for $30k a year. But…they have no motivation to go out and get a career or make one for themselves. It’s their own fault. Technically, they were the child of a one percenter as well.
I’ve taught in two very wealthy districts. One percenters usually pull some strings and get their kid a decent job fresh out of college. I know one instance of a parent who is a CEO who managed to get their English and Film Majoring daughters big time executive positions at a Pharma company at age 23.
…I know it’s anecdotal
Yes, very anecdotal. The media, internet and social sites are littered with negativity using Trump as the root cause. Keep repeating it and the masses will believe. You think there’s no agenda by some hidden entities to destroy his administration? They’re are those who would celebrate if he was assassinated. Where’s that gun bill the dems insisted needed to be passed immediately? What other agenda does the House have but to impeach? Tell Vlad I’ll have more flexibility. What was Hunter’s golf score when he went golfing with some Ukrainian Gas executives?
STEM is on fire. 75k out of school with no experience. 0 unemployment except for churn.
Yes, cheap money has lead to the greatest expansion in fast food and low-end retail. September employment comes out on Friday, unless the dork in chief accidentally tweets it out early again. Numbers should be telling. If they are bad. It’s over Alice!
None of this has anything to do with impeachment btw.
Ed,
Do you ever blame red hat jesus for a thing? There must be some remnant of critical thought, rather than the cartoonish regurgitation of samo. We are here for many reasons and 90 percent is Orange faced blustering and threats while not having real policy and leaders in place. You would never join a company where the COO, COS and CIO get replaced every quarter followed by CEO badmouthing them in communication release.
Futures tumbling too.
Where’s Pumps and his roaring 20’s, 2.0?
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/trump-administration-conflicts/
Wasn’t Bloomberg a Republican?
“They’re are those who would celebrate if he was assassinated.”
A statement that could be made about every President ever; heck maybe every world leader ever.
Damn, it’s really starting to look like the recession is already here. Said that last week on this blog…evidence only becoming stronger.
Fast, yes, recessions have a lot to do with the psychology of the market. Human emotion plays a large roll in which direction the economy is heading. So if they think the sky is falling, they start to act on it, and like dominoes, it builds on the momentum. Same thing on the opposite end, they create massive bubbles when they are full of euphoria and act on it on mass.
Moral of the story, get ready to buy when the masses are running, and then prepare to sell into the wave as the masses march back in like lemmings.
Let’s see what Wisconsin does in next election. Dems should be blasting the FoxConn deal. That is right and Trump’s feet and a massive fail, heading into election.
“Wisconsin campus called for a massive 22-million-square-foot manufacturing campus that would produce the largest LCD screens in the world from a Gen 10.5 factory. That vision was enough for the state to offer $3 billion in incentives, plus hundreds of millions more in local investments, in exchange for a $10 billion investment and the creation of 13,000 jobs.
Those plans changed for a number of reasons. New York-based Corning Inc. wanted more incentives to build a needed glass factory, the development of other Gen 10.5 plants created a global oversupply and slowing growth and trade tensions added uncertainty to the picture.
Foxconn now says it is building a nearly 1-million-square-foot Gen 6 fab in Mount Pleasant because it provides additional flexibility”
Lib, in my calls, I always said there was a chance for a recession in late 2018 or 2019. Look it up.
This recession will almost guarantee roaring 20’s 2.0. We need this. Too many people are holding back because the run is long in the tooth. We need this recession to unleash the animal spirits.
Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:
October 2, 2019 at 9:03 am
Futures tumbling too.
Where’s Pumps and his roaring 20’s, 2.0?
Juice:
Time for the black eyeliner
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-ldu3SqE4II
joyce,
The left is outwardly rooting for his demise.
Chi – 3 day limited run in theaters? AMC in NORTH BRUNSWICK
https://www.spiritsintheforest.com/
Looks like Sanders is out.
re: Sanders – Larry David should take over the campaign.
Crap this means Hillary is back in too! (Quote from Trump).
Aw crap. Well get ready for soc1alist Warren. Who too would not refuse the allure of corporate blood money. All the same.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserves-interest-rate-cuts-hurt-the-economy-by-tamping-down-lending-2019-10-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
I think you can count Biden out too. NBC is now reporting on his 2013 trip to China with Hunter on AF2. Shocked they picked it up and are reporting on it actually.
Grim says:
October 2, 2019 at 10:42 am
Looks like Sanders is out.
I’m telling you I really get the feeling [Left Wing] mainstream media types really love Kamala. She just needs somebody better to manage her campaign and to stop laughing at her own jokes…it’s cringe-worthy.
So the Dems are doing to Biden what they did to Bernie in 2016. It’s okay though… they are a compassionate group that cares for the well-being of every American. Provided that you agree with them otherwise, you’re unpatriotic and deplorable.
Elizabeth Warren does not poll well with black voters. I don’t see how she could win it in the general.
Lib – how do you feel about Argentina?
Capital Controls, Sky-High Rates Crush Argentine Housing Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/capital-controls-sky-high-rates-crush-argentine-housing-market
Don’t worry. She’ll claim to have some black blood soon enough. None the less, Warren the clear front runner as Bernie voters will all swing to her.
Crude is approaching a major support level. If she breaks under 50, recession has to be on. I wonder how many billions Trump plans to hand the executive boards to get things going this time? Defecit schmeficit!
Manufacturing in the toilet.
10 year can’t figure out which way to go.
Feds know negative yields don’t help economy (look at rest of world).
Trump losing trade war terribly.
Impeachment will drag on also hurting country pysche.
Crude collapsing, sign of less future demand.
Real estate definitely past peak.
Infrastructure collapsing.
1% scared as prospect of Warren means you are giving some back.
All very gloomy economic news. Now the question is, how long will it last and how nasty will it be?
Young Buck,
It’s full on soc1alist press time. Even though Warren is about as much a soc1alist as Trump is humble.
Funny that a party that is so anti-regulation is so hell bent on regulating women.
Warren should buy a lotto ticket. Trump and Biden with the whole two stone thing and Bernie gets stented….
Bloomberg is a liberal, was a republican by convenience to run for nyc mayor as he had zero chance of making it through Dem primary. Bloomberg news too a decidedly left ward turn about six or none months ago.
STEM, crazy. Need to be discrete here but a colleagues kid went to a solid University and studied CS. No engineering school, took it in a liberal arts curriculum. Right out of school landed an nyc job at a big Data provider, on one year anniversary is heading out west to a recognized name. 150. Beginning his second year out of college
Woe. Ugly market day (especially combined with yesterday). Just wait until all those foreign dollars pull out among fear of a mad president?
Just wait until all those foreign dollars pull out among fear of a mad president?
Deep state politics creating one fake crisis after another pushing for a coup d’état will cause much uneasiness. We’re certain of the left’s agenda though the progressive clowns know they can dupe the hoi polloi at will.
Come on now. When things are good, Trump is a Jedi Master. When the sh1t hits the fan, it’s a well orchestrated left-wing conspiracy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTpgu9J1t4U
Twitter is hilarious sometimes. Everyone is talking about Nancy Pelosi’s press conference on impeachment from earlier.
The focal point? The booger that was clearly visible hanging out of her nose the entire press conference.
What a time to be alive…
They impeach him, it goes to the Senate, it goes no further… then what?
Impeachment is fun and games. The recession will kill him. He was doing fine until China refused to back down. Farmers turned industrialists are apparently much tougher than industrialists turned fast-food workers. Who would have guessed it? (I pointed this out here a long time ago when everyone said that China had more to lose than we did.) It’s kinda like this.
https://youtu.be/1tmI867fAYU?t=15
The Senate rules say they have to “take it up”. 67 votes to change the rule. But I suppose they could talk about it forever
Fast Eddie says:
October 2, 2019 at 1:02 pm
They impeach him, it goes to the Senate, it goes no further… then what?
Apparently not so good in Miami either.
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/09/25/miami-real-estate-collapse/
If that jobs report on Friday shows weakness. Look out below! Glad I’m positioned for it.
Fast Eddie,
It gets to the Senate, than what?
Politics my friend. Take a look at 2016 pre-election episodes of the showtime docu-show “Circus”. You’ll will see the infrastructure of money runners for the GOP whining about him. Trump proved them useless and destroyed their way of being. Trump did a hostile takeover of the GOP. Right now the GOP is Trump. Trump is the GOP. Trump is trying to make the State him, and him the State. As french king Louis XIV is rumored to have said L’état, c’est moi.
If it goes to the Senate. If the economy is the cr@pper. If Trump can’t make anymore Jedi tricks. Then that infrastructure machine that really hates his gut will go for the jugular, and then the coup de grace, of what they see as an unreal impostor that ruin their gigs.
Whoever said it, you keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Trump’s real enemy is not Pelosi, but the GOP infrastructure. Trump, Sanders and Warren, have more in common than you think, they are outsiders. Just like Pelosi, McConell, and the Democratic Machine have more in common with each other than with Trump, Sanders, and Warren.
boogers, bullying, censure, impeachment oh my!
You’ve gone completely around the bend.
Fast Eddie says:
October 2, 2019 at 10:08 am
joyce,
The left is outwardly rooting for his demise.
Can I get a good call for claiming recession is here last week? That drop in consumer spending told me all I need to know to call for the “nail in the coffin” on the recession.
Pumps : That gut instinct of yours is still wrong.
non-farm payroll, the index of industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CMRMTSPL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO
“If that jobs report on Friday shows weakness. Look out below! Glad I’m positioned for it.”
Took profits in the last couple hours on a few shorts. Mostly SPY, W, and anything else that could get a big bump on trade news. Always concerned about the tweet from nowhere especially when the market goes hard against the Orange One.
I’ve reduced basis drastically in the other shorts by writing 2x puts under my already profitable levels. Mostly things relatively immune from trade – midcap domestic medtech, domestic social app (two actually, hate that fcuking sector), sh1tty for profit domestic school. Two out of these four positions now have a positive basis – ie, I actually took money off the table today when I made the trade establishing the net total positions.
These will remain positive (profitable) now even if the stocks rally hard and up and through the levels were I originally shorted them. I have the best book I’ve been able to put together in a long time. The leverage on this is through the roof and the dollars at risk minimal. Good times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBYCZCGSVmQ
Numbers don’t lie there is no recession. FAKE NEWS.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
“Pumps : That gut instinct of yours is still wrong.”
SMH…why do you even try….
“There will be robust economy in the 20s but there may be a recession first”
Don’t just look at his statements, actually READ them. It is totally meaningless…..
It will be sunny sometime in the next ten days but it may rain before then.
Fcuking LOL.
The Great Pumpkin says:
September 27, 2019 at 10:34 pm
Recession is coming or already here.
“U.S. Inflation Decelerated in August”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-inflationdecelerated-in-august-11569590738?emailToken=3543c2fe5368994df85a3c7fcd0cbad27pH3JaNMezXNY790SMCvtbl99jpo2gXcKsVejSWHlXYWatq5tML07N8QWrerb/8K0hWmKsbfKDCpmQuPotCCfg%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share
The Great Pumpkin says:
September 27, 2019 at 10:36 pm
Nail in the coffin?
“Economists lower third-quarter growth estimates after household spending nudged up 0.1% in August”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-consumer-spending-slowed-sharply-in-august-11569587637?emailToken=c71c7f414bc6e13a1a3b443c275f571aA91m6rj0dcqgc0P2+B81AHDKhnEqukXerPF/ROAXNBp015gseADWbh3cKqiuy34RTL/rkJiI7XRlFot2j8QD6xY/1ncN7ul3QQwBMGMUUCY%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Lefty,
How exactly is that meaningless? Get a clue, dude!
Fundamentals of the underlying economy are stupid strong, hence my call for roaring 20’s 2.0. This doesn’t mean that we aren’t currently in a small and quick recession. Those indicators lag. Biggest thing to pay attention to right now is consumer spending. They go all negative with doom and gloom, and stop spending…recession
Juice Box says:
October 2, 2019 at 2:15 pm
Numbers don’t lie there is no recession. FAKE NEWS.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
Dumbfcuk. Look up tautological argument.
“There will be a robust economy sometime in the 20s but there may be a recession first”
“It will be sunny sometime in the next ten days but may rain first”
I’m a fcuking genius weatherman! Never knew. CBS National news here I come.
Can someone repost the syndrome’s name of when someone is so stupid it is impossible for him to realize his stupidity.
Calling roaring 20’s 2.0 ten years out is a weatherman’s call?!
And when I made the calls back in 2012/13, no one thought it was possible. The economy was full of doom and gloom at the time. Don’t try to play it off as my calls were inevitable, nobody thought that at the time. Just go back in the archives and look at all the heat I took on this blog for the calls. Was called an idiot.
“Was” LoL
Tiiiiimmmmmbbbeeeeeeer
What’s worse is that he is already patting himself on the back for calling a recovery before the recession even officially starts.
I bet the sun comes up tomorrow. But my pure brilliance allows me to predict that this will be followed by nightfall.
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What exactly did W do to implode the economy?
It sounds like you have trump derangement syndrome.
”Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls. says:
October 2, 2019 at 8:01 am
I thought Trump’s entire presidency revolved around the return of blue collar jobs? Three years in and he’s managed to return the ISM to where it was back when “W” imploded the economy.
Trump’s life has been riddled by failure after failure. One of his first successes was that stupid television show where he fired everyone. And the masses of asses in this country felt this qualified him to run the country. Sadly, it appears all he is good at is firing everyone.
I know it’s anecdotal, but the country sure isn’t great for my nieces and nephews who recently graduated. My oldest nephew is now making $30K a year teaching at a charter school in Ewing NJ. His sister, an honors graduate from Rutgers, is now working retail. My other nephew, he cooks at Panera. The parents of these kids are in the 1% easily.“
Left – You are thinking of Dunning-Kreuger, and it applies in spades.
Pumpkin – You asked “how are my calls meaningless?” Put some money or anything of worth (other than you blog comments) behind your statement and the calls will have meaning.
Joe,
It is clear TDS is right phenomenon. It is pretty sick how presidential bar has been lowered to prop up this incompetent and corrupt Buffon. Mirror check time for Dumpy supporters.
Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems like my calls are all coming together.
Libturd says:
October 2, 2019 at 3:49 pm
What’s worse is that he is already patting himself on the back for calling a recovery before the recession even officially starts.
I bet the sun comes up tomorrow. But my pure brilliance allows me to predict that this will be followed by nightfall.
I have been. Trying the best that I can.
“Pumpkin – You asked “how are my calls meaningless?” Put some money or anything of worth (other than you blog comments) behind your statement and the calls will have meaning.”
It is sick how the bar has been lowered starting with Bill have sex in the Oval Office then lying about when he got impeached. It is sick how the Clintons deregulated the banks then ignorant people like libturd blame Bush.
Mirror check time for demonrats.
7:47 hey stupid. Seriously consider sticking your f@cking head in an oven.
How about you go burn in f@cking hell where you belong?
Joe,
Seriously you are out of your league intellectually on this blog with tripe like that. Don’t become dufus #2.
Automation and AI will lead to 200,000 banking job cuts over the next decade, Wells Fargo says.
That would be the biggest reduction in headcount ever in the U.S. banking industry. bloom.bg/2nR9vYv
If Sanders bails, Warren gets the nomination. Zero doubt in my mind.
Sorry about that. That 9:04 comment got under my skin.
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Another Article on the main story.
Forign buyers retreat from NYC condo market.
https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/the-foreign-buyer-fallout/
As I have stated before recessions always start with the rich. Their spending patterns depend on the expectation that asset prices will increase. Any pullback in their spending patterns trickles down eventually into the BLS non-farms payroll report. They are the employers, they begin to hire less, smaller raises and bonuses, less capital investment and if their expectation that their incomes will be down then they get more frugal less spending on high end real estate and other luxury goods.
We have seen that pattern in Hampton for example, where the NY times said real estate was in a rut this season and selling prices are down and inventory is up.
re Warren –
Berine is wounded but as I have seen before with other people who have had stents they tend to bounce back with more vigor, do to the increased blood flow. Next debate is 12 days from now, some may be surprised to see Bernie will be in fighting form again by then even if his days are numbered do to underlying heart disease.
That Tesla smart summon feature would be cooler if the door opened when it arrived like KITT.
Does it come with those cool lights that pulse back and forth?
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Just hope I’m correct on a quick recovery. The fundamentals are strong in the economy so one would think it will be quick…millennials are coming to spend all their money.
Juice Box says:
October 3, 2019 at 9:15 am
As I have stated before recessions always start with the rich. Their spending patterns depend on the expectation that asset prices will increase. Any pullback in their spending patterns trickles down eventually into the BLS non-farms payroll report. They are the employers, they begin to hire less, smaller raises and bonuses, less capital investment and if their expectation that their incomes will be down then they get more frugal less spending on high end real estate and other luxury goods.
We have seen that pattern in Hampton for example, where the NY times said real estate was in a rut this season and selling prices are down and inventory is up.
FORMER MONTCLAIR DEPUTY CHIEF TAKES JOB IN MARCO ISLAND, STILL ON PAYROLL HERE
Former Deputy Chief Tracy Frazzano is still on the Montclair Police Department payroll even though she was sworn in as police chief of Marco Island, Fla. on Sept. 3.
Montclair’s Director of Human Resources Sharyn Matthews said this week that Frezzano was still collecting her annual salary of $185,096 using her accumulated benefit time.
Multiple requests for the number of sick and vacation days Frazzano had accrued and the amount owed were not answered by the township.
Frazzano’s Marco Island salary was not immediately available, but the Florida town’s recruitment ad for chief position stated a salary between $105,000 and $120,000 with a 30 percent benefit allowance.
Frazzano’s last day with Montclair was Aug. 20, township communications director Katya Wowk said in August.
However, after two attempts over a month period by Montclair Local to access Frazzano’s separation/ termination agreement with the township, Matthews said on Thursday, Sept. 26, that Frazzano was still a Montclair employee.
“Deputy Chief Tracy Frazzano was hired with the township Aug. 1, 1995. Her total current salary is $185,096.88. [Deputy Chief] Frazzano is not separated from the township,” Matthews said.
https://www.montclairlocal.news/2019/10/02/former-montclair-deputy-chief-payroll-nj/?fbclid=IwAR2SDsYyD8wS_t3iBoyV23AHXka1EoElfuEqQg9D17ePKTueZ3ZA4eDRRbg
I’ve lived in this area nearly the entire time Tracy been in service. I never even heard of her up until now. $185K per year? WTF!
Democrats: Convincing poor people to vote for rich people by telling them it’s the other rich people keeping them poor.
Republicans: Convincing poor people that it’s immigration that’s keeping them down while they cut their own tax rates.
Millenial s are coming to spend all their money? The flow of BS just keeps coming.
He really should dedicate his brain to science. Perhaps they could use the results to cure Down’s, Lime’s, Parkinson’s and other similar ailments.
Lib he just makes a statement like that and because he said it he deems it to be true. He should actually speak with a broad spectrum of millennials he might actually learn something.
I don’t think so. She’s un-electable.
Grim says:
October 3, 2019 at 6:12 am
If Sanders bails, Warren gets the nomination. Zero doubt in my mind.
Lower taxes means less graft. Either you can earn it yourself or have the left pilfer it from you while assuring you they have your interest at heart. Like the mafia, they come with a smile and a handshake before they whack you.
Warren’s campaign slogan: “You’ll get it free if you vote for me!”
https://patch.com/new-jersey/pointpleasant/big-move-plan-eliminate-nearly-300-nj-school-districts
Why do you assume all millennials are poor? Lots of highly educated millennials making money. The thing you miss altogether…who do you think is going to spend the boomer’s money? Don’t feel so bad for millennials..
3b says:
October 3, 2019 at 11:33 am
Millenial s are coming to spend all their money? The flow of BS just keeps coming.
No Ed..lower spending, not lower taxes. It is smoke and mirrors. Neither the Rs or Ds are cutting spending. The burnt Orange crook is exploding it. You will have to pay up at some point. It is ridiculous premise really in this day and age.
You will have to pay up at some point.
We’ve been paying for a long time. Just wait until we get medicare for all, then you’ll really be paying for it. The only “out” is when you die earlier waiting for a simple procedure because the system is overwhelmed with global riff-raff.
U.S., Eurozone Services Stumble Threatens Sharper Global Slowdown
Economic indicators suggest a manufacturing downturn is spreading
https://www.wsj.com/articles/services-stumble-threatens-sharper-global-slowdown-11570094948?mod=hp_lead_pos6
It has to be here by now…market psychology has turned to gloom and doom.
“Repeated Recession Scares Are Chipping Away at Investor Confidence
Investors are thinking not about whether there will be a recession, but when it will be”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/repeated-recession-scares-are-chipping-away-at-investor-confidence-11570120227?mod=hp_featst_pos1
Don’t look at this
https://mobile.twitter.com/alx/status/1179697967978205184
There doesn’t have to be a recession, but the market psychology of the participants have steered this economy towards a minor recession on the simple basis that this run is long in the tooth and due for a recession. So they are making it happen..
“Even global conditions were less bad than before, with the Markit global figure showing only slight contraction in manufacturing last month (although Europe’s suggests a recession).
Still, investors pay more attention to the longer-running ISM gauge, and the market’s poise took a knock. In itself, that could be damaging. Investors are thinking not about whether there will be a recession, but when it will be.
Almost every market has shifted to a more defensive late-cycle posture. Most obvious is in U.S. stocks, where smaller companies—whose stocks typically go up faster in an expansion and down further in a recession—have underperformed markedly since just before the first recession scare a year ago.”
Ed,
I waited 2 months to get my kid to pediatrc athsma specialty My mom was told 3 months for oral onc visit. If you have influence and money, you get in quicker. That is US healthcare today.
Mexico will pay for the moat.
Remember the good ol’ days when Fast Eddie complained about our president being a narcissist rather than celebrated it? I guess it was a simpler time back then.
Look at this. Exactly what I said. They are not worried about next year or long term, but right now, the sky is falling based on the simple fact that they expect a recession to come because this run is long in the tooth.
“At the same time the spread above Treasurys for the best-quality junk bonds, those rated BB, rose from 2.1 points to 2.4 points, a tiny change. Investors expect the weakest of the weak to face trouble because the economy is slowing; in a recession trouble would be much more widespread.
Analyst expectations for this year’s earnings are down sharply, but forecast growth for next year remains above 10%.
Forecast profits follow a similar pattern. Wall Street expects the current earnings weakness to be followed by a return to normal growth, not a recession or extended difficulties. Analysts expect S&P 500 operating earnings this year to grow a puny 1.9%, according to Refinitiv IBES. That is a huge drop from a prediction of above 10% a year ago, yet the prediction for next year’s earnings growth is virtually unchanged and still above 10%.”
Bystander is correct in that lowering spending (particularly but not only at the Federal level) is where the primary focus should be.
“We are talking about the tax code. But that’s the consequence, that’s the symptom. The disease is spending. Every time you spend, spending is a tax. We tax the people, we borrow, and then we print the money and the prices go up, and that is a tax. So you have to address the subject of spending. That is the tax. That is the reason I go after the spending. I propose in the first year cut $1 trillion out of the budget in 5 departments.” -Ron Paul
Sorry, you are being too hopeful, they will take it down with their negative mindset.
“My hope is that this latest scare can be overcome. But there is no denying that the market’s late-cycle mind-set makes it more sensitive to signs of difficulties, and that sensitivity itself makes a recession more likely.”
Remember the good ol’ days when Fast Eddie complained about our president being a narcissist rather than celebrated it?
Remember the good old days when men had the balls to organize and operate a business, taking financial risk while others preached the good word of community empowerment?
What does that have to do with narcissism? You used to complain about that all the time.
What does that have to do with narcissism?
You earn it. Right? When you’ve failed, succeeded, failed and tried again, you earned the right to be a little arrogant. When you preach and talk and tell others you didn’t build that, then you need to sit down and shut the f.uck up. Don’t strut unless you’ve been there.
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True story..
Fast Eddie says:
October 3, 2019 at 1:26 pm
What does that have to do with narcissism?
You earn it. Right? When you’ve failed, succeeded, failed and tried again, you earned the right to be a little arrogant. When you preach and talk and tell others you didn’t build that, then you need to sit down and shut the f.uck up. Don’t strut unless you’ve been there.
Never said all millenials are poor. And you assume all boomers have tons of cash that will be passed on to Millenials they of course will take that money and drive up housing prices including yours. It always comes back to that.
“But in December the Pew Research Center published a study that found millennial households are earning more than previous generations did at their age nearly any time in the past 50 years. This research provided further support for the millennials-are-wealthy narrative, and Quartz called them “the richest generation.”
So are millennials rich or poor? Turns out, they’re both.”
“Pew looked at data for a three-person-household income, while the Fed looked at data for individuals. Average real labor earnings for male household heads working full time were 18% and 27% higher for Gen Xers and baby boomers, respectively, when they were young compared with millennials, the Fed found. For women, the difference was 12% and 24% higher for Gen Xers and boomers.
But while the Fed found that individual incomes were falling for millennials, it did find that family incomes for married couples (household incomes) grew, similar to Pew’s analysis. Individuals are earning less, but households are earning more.”
“A baby-boomer inheritance, low unemployment rates, and good savings habits mean millennials can catch up financially
Because millennials have higher education levels and more time to earn and save, it’s possible they’ll have steeper income and wealth trajectories than previous generations and meet their financial goals in the end, the St. Louis Fed report said.
Millennials are also set to receive a wealth inheritance from boomers, which could make them richer than previous generations, Business Insider’s Jim Edwards previously reported. Paul Donovan, chief global economist of UBS Wealth Management, told Edwards that because the millennial generation is smaller than the boomer generation they’re inheriting from, wealth will be more concentrated upon transferal.
“From a big-picture viewpoint, millennials will likely receive the greatest wealth transfer in modern history — from the baby boomers,” Dorsey said. “However, the reality is that baby boomers are healthier and living longer than even they planned, so that wealth transfer might not happen for 20-plus years.”
He added: “Millennials will do better than they are often maligned by the general public, but they also got off to a slower start entering their wealth accumulation phase due to a variety of external events that were often out of their control.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-wealth-generation-experts-data-2019-1
Oh, god. The you didn’t build that thing again. I’ll just agreed to disagree but leave one more comment. I hope we have a (D) president next to see some folks here do an immediate 180.
The grifter in chief now wants Ch-China to launch an official Biden investigation.
joyce,
It was his whole swagger… he didn’t earn anything. That statement was a shining light on his conceit and disdain for those who earned.
Well, well, well… do as I say, not as I do.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/robert-niro-accused-unwanted-physical-152800602.html
Just keep on posting but skip the critical thinking. When I was in my 20s we could buy a house in a good town with taxes under 2k a year. And do it one income. Same house 30 years later is 450k 12 to 15 in taxes. And takes two incomes. Enough said. And the average or median age I forget which one at the moment is 46 for a first time home buyer. That’s a sobering thought. Taking on a big mortage with a couple of kids as your pushing 50 is a depressing thought.
Eddie – in the complaint “prod him awake when he was in bed”
Errr what was she doing in his bedroom? Seems like she was more of a home healthcare aide than a Vice President.
It’s because women entered the workforce. Increased labor supply, hurting earnings. We have passed that stage up. You are finally seeing growth in wages. Just one question? Family income higher today or back when you were 20? It sucks to be a one earner household in this economy, it’s just not how the economy works today.
3b says:
October 3, 2019 at 2:35 pm
Just keep on posting but skip the critical thinking. When I was in my 20s we could buy a house in a good town with taxes under 2k a year. And do it one income. Same house 30 years later is 450k 12 to 15 in taxes. And takes two incomes. Enough said. And the average or median age I forget which one at the moment is 46 for a first time home buyer. That’s a sobering thought. Taking on a big mortage with a couple of kids as your pushing 50 is a depressing thought.
Inheritance Expectations
By now, you’re wondering what type of dope Millennials are smoking to be so far divorced from reality. Well here it is folks. The secret to everything! The average Millennial who tried out the Retirement Planner expects to inherit $1.06 million – twice as much income as from their paychecks! No wonder why they don’t care about working more than 15 years, plan to spend $21,690 a year on vacations, and only pay $142,000 for real estate. Their parents will hook them up!
Maybe they’re thinking they’ll spend $142,000 on just the remodel. And given Millennials won’t have a mortgage to pay, they can just kick back with their retirement and vacation funds until they get an extra income boost from their 401k and Social Security.
It’s all so clear to me now why Millennials emphasize “following their passion,” and “doing meaningful work,” even if they haven’t put in their dues. The data from hundreds of thousands of well-educated, technology-savvy Millennials from all over the country does not lie!
https://www.financialsamurai.com/no-wonder-why-millennials-dont-give-a-damn-about-money/
Okay, I lied… more comments. Do you really know or care to know the context in that speech Obama made or the huge helping hand Trump had to ‘earn’ as you put it?
Fast Eddie says:
October 3, 2019 at 2:32 pm
joyce,
It was his whole swagger… he didn’t earn anything. That statement was a shining light on his conceit and disdain for those who earned.
3b, leftwing, libturd, others…
Don’t respond to him. Don’t respond about him. Let him congratulate himself, then doubt himself, then wonder out loud, then argue, finally reassuring himself, then back to self-congratulating.
Lack of attention = withers away.
You are just as bad as 3b for letting him go on with his nonsense. When someone is wrong, you should let them know instead of being a snarky ….
joyce says:
October 3, 2019 at 2:56 pm
3b, leftwing, libturd, others…
Don’t respond to him. Don’t respond about him. Let him congratulate himself, then doubt himself, then wonder out loud, then argue, finally reassuring himself, then back to self-congratulating.
Lack of attention = withers away.
If millennials are indeed destined to be poor, please supply the evidence. How can you ignore the so called “richest generation” and write off their kids as poor. Where is their money going? Vanishing into thin air?
And if the boomers don’t pass down a single penny to their offspring, instead spending it. It will still put money into the hands of millennials in the form of economic growth created from their heavy spending.
Joyce you are right of course and I have been quite good in ignoring him for most of this year. I am done now today with engaging him. It simply is impossible.
Sorry Joyce missed one of his comments last response to him. Don’t tell me I am wrong it’s highly insulting.
Do you really know or care to know the context in that speech Obama made..
I know the context… you can’t have a business without roads and police protection paid for by taxes… those same taxes provided by… (drum roll)… private companies and individual earners!!
As for Trump’s head start, no one denies it but he financed his business ventures, took chances and created thousands of jobs directly and indirectly.
Government is not the basis for prosperity, it’s a device to be used.
Fast and yet business uses government to its advantage all the time.
Trump is hardly a model to follow.
As to millenials and average inheritances? Most (and I mean most) are in debt. They won’t dig out until after the kids are in college. None. Not any, are on pace to retire comfortably if at all. And I have a lot of peers to judge since I run an investment club. These are individuals who all own homes in Glen Ridge and the surrounding locale. I will be the only one to pay their kids educations in full.
None are ivy league, but most are state college or better educated.
Put another chunk of my portfolio into Altria and Phillip Morris today.
Not a huge fan of them anymore (though definitely a value play). Look at PAYX or XLU in the short run.
No. I disagree
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
October 3, 2019 at 4:02 pm
Put another chunk of my portfolio into Altria and Phillip Morris today.
Lib so they are not bleeding money?? But but??
Okay, millennials are poor. In the future I guess everyone will be poor in America.
Lib, you are right, boomers are broke.
Correct, mostly. The infrastructure in place was paid for by previous individuals. For example, Zuckerberg didn’t pay one penny in taxes toward the development of the internet. As for Trump, he financed his business ventures with other people’s money. I have no problem with a family passing wealth down to future generations, but as Lib said find a better role model for your argument.
Large corporations are not using government as a device. They are abusing and exploiting it. Most small government lobbyists and PACs etc. etc. talk about taxes and regulations, but not cutting spending or industry subsidies.
There is more than enough to choose from for which to criticize Obama. It’s just weird to pick things like narcissism and his swagger when you fawn over the next guy.
Fast Eddie says:
October 3, 2019 at 3:34 pm
Do you really know or care to know the context in that speech Obama made..
I know the context… you can’t have a business without roads and police protection paid for by taxes… those same taxes provided by… (drum roll)… private companies and individual earners!!
As for Trump’s head start, no one denies it but he financed his business ventures, took chances and created thousands of jobs directly and indirectly.
I just want to add one thing. All these reports are comparing millennials to previous generations at the same age. It’s total bs. Why in the world would you measure the income of a millennials in their twenties and compare it to boomers in their 20’s? That’s pointless. Times have changed and 30 is the new 20…I can’t stress that enough. Not many people are buying a house and starting a family at 21? It makes absolutely no sense to take that approach this day and age. It just doesn’t apply, everything got pushed back 10 years and rightfully so since these current generations might be working into their 80’s. It’s a different world out there now…no need to rush to start a career and family when you are going to live for so much longer. No one is going to be retiring in their 60’s come twenty years from now.
I bought a house early for my generation. Trust me, people eye’s lit up when they heard I bought a house. Why? No one my age was even thinking about buying a house. They were all in college mode. Yes, almost everyone went to college my generation. Graduating…that’s another story.
It’s not till most of the guys hit their 30’s that they began to go career and family mode. Some were late 20’s, but most started in their 30s. I’m not making this up. It’s the truth. They had no intention whatsoever of starting a career or family in their 20’s, instead live the extended college life for almost their entire 20’s and some even into their 30’s. Even some guys I thought would never have a kid or wife have now taken the plunge.
I’m at the exact start of the millennial generation. I have witnessed and interacted with them my whole life. My siblings are..most of my cousins are. Almost every single one of my friends are. So I think I know a thing or two about my generation.
I have a good amount of best friends. One is 36. He has never worked a day in his life. He bought a home and has a one year old. Parents took care of him. So spare me the bs that millennials are not being taken care of by their rich boomer parents. I know for a fact that his situation is not an anomaly.
Every single one of my best friends, except one, has been married, bought a home, and had a kid in the past 7 years. All in their 30’s. One of my friends is currently already on his second home. Bought in pompton plains. Gutted and renovated to an over 3 000sq ft home. Almost finished with it. FYI, he got help from his parents. See the trend here?
Lib was the first to call it last month. Good call. I didn’t believe it till I saw the drop in consumer spending.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” said Matthew Shay, chief executive of the National Retail Federation. “Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric. Confidence could be eroded by continued deterioration of these and other variables.”
The bad news has been piling up lately: U.S. manufacturing has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, while the services sector is at its weakest level in three years, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management this week. Markets retreated Tuesday and Wednesday in a two-day plunge that wiped out more than 3 percent of the stock market. Job growth is slowing, and auto sales are contracting after seven years of brisk growth.
And although the unemployment rate remains low — at 3.7 percent — economists say it could begin to inch up if companies cut back on hiring. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose during the last week in September, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday. Monthly jobs data for September is scheduled to be released Friday morning.”
Millenial generation might be working in their 80s! Wow. Sounds wonderful!
8:59. Really depends on the career.
Some folks are just killing it at 55 others are done.
Either way.
It’s pays to
get Maaco.
There won’t be a trade deal with China
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-10-04/samsung-ends-smartphone-phone-production-in-china
Jobs up 136k
Unemployment drops
Revisions up for past 2 months
Joe Biden and Blammy sold us out to China.
Moving production to Vietnam and other global manufacturing sites
D-FENS says:
October 4, 2019 at 7:38 am
There won’t be a trade deal with China
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-10-04/samsung-ends-smartphone-phone-production-in-china
My god, the fundamentals in the U.S. economy are unbelievably strong. This is insane. People still doubting roaring 20’s 2.o? Under a global slowdown and trade war, unemployment hits record low.
condo says:
October 4, 2019 at 8:32 am
Jobs up 136k
Unemployment drops
Revisions up for past 2 months
More companies will think twice about how it looks to move jobs to China. Companies will choose any other country. They are branding themselves as Fentanyl dealers who don’t honor deals.
joyce says:
October 4, 2019 at 8:53 am
Moving production to Vietnam and other global manufacturing sites
The unemployment rate is down again to — can you believe it — 3.5%, companies are having a hard time finding good people. We had drinks last night for a coworker of mine who is leaving, new company is is paying him a signing bonus and he was mediocre at best even with all the mentoring I gave him.
The economy is still humming along, expansion is still occurring people are hiring. The sky is not falling no matter what the fake news says.
They haven’t been honoring deals, contracts or property rights (let alone human rights) for decades. I think any large shift of jobs out of China is due to them not being the cheapest game in town anymore. Hence, Vietnam and others. Just like when the Philippines became popular after India built up over the years.
D-FENS says:
October 4, 2019 at 9:05 am
More companies will think twice about how it looks to move jobs to China. Companies will choose any other country. They are branding themselves as Fentanyl dealers who don’t honor deals.
This week’s new season South Park episode, takes on China hard.
https://youtu.be/g6DI6XuvCwE
https://youtu.be/QyBUyn46b1c
There is so much going on right now, it’s seriously a challenge to see through the smoke. I really thought a recession was here. I was wrong and not jumping on that bs train again. Sticking to my long term position that this will be the best economic boom of our lifetime. If the labor market can handle this many big blows, it’s going to take a hell of a knockout punch to take it out now.
So much hinged on this jobs report. It’s telling…
Save the planet, eat babies!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwUTVUwB7A
China refuses to give up it’s ‘developing country’ status at the WTO, otherwise it can no longer subsidize all of their industries, have state-owned firms and discriminate against any and all foreign investors.
AOC Town Hall in Queens NY went way way off the rails.
“Eat the babies” to prevent Global Warming….
Video here.
https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1179908480322289664
After three years we are just finally getting to the heart of why trump is hated so badly. DC is a rotten festering corrupt POS. No one in elected office gives a damn about their constituents beyond their own self interest. Everything is for sale. The deep state permanent government is the enforcement. Big media distracts from the truth.
Someone who comes in and threatens to take the punch bowl away will be destroyed. Shills like the fake news watchers make it far too east.
10:18 seriously? Punch bowl!? Hahahaha haha
Yeah that’s it….punch bowl..
Here is my post from the last presidential election cycle, only this time unreality is now coming at us in massive doses driven by AI that is faster than I have ever seen. The proletariat don’t stand a chance.
Juice Box says:
October 15, 2016 at 1:17 pm
In this election cycle we are now spectators to the weaponization of absurdity and unreality. Is anything we read or see or hear even true anymore? Obama made a speech this week about it and I have been thinking hard myself especially with this latest supposed planning for an US Cyber Attack that was leaked by Biden most likely intentionally.
The conclusion I have come to is if nothing is true, then anything is possible, and that is very very dangerous.
Artistic trolling…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwUTVUwB7A
Juice. There is no hope for the individual in the future. The convergence of technology eliminates any vestiges of liberty.
The last chance is the constitution and fools like Essex allow it to be weakened continually.
Essex- you do know that trump will be eventually term limited out and the damage you do to out political system is permanent right?
I swear, that has to be a troll…but here’s the problem. She’s not willing to tell the person “you are nuts”.
I bought a house early for my generation. Trust me, people eye’s lit up when they heard I bought a house.
Dude, the carpet looks like you haven’t replaced it since your grandma had it installed in 1970.
Ignorant people like Essex are a huge part of the problem.
“ExEssex says:
October 4, 2019 at 10:31 am
10:18 seriously? Punch bowl!? Hahahaha haha
Yeah that’s it….punch bowl..“
Joe – Leave Essex alone, he is a kept man and has no worries in life, he should not be as cranky as he is especially living in sunny California so consider him eccentric. What the cause of his eccentric behavior is we have yet to find out, his other sparring partner here passed away so we may never know.
This is a NYT article but the link avoids the paywall.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/feeding-frenzy-how-new-yorkers-plundered-the-chicago-taxi-trade/ar-AAIgvQi?ocid=spartanntp
“Over the next decade, New York taxi industry leaders — fleet owners, brokers and financiers — steadily seized control of Chicago’s medallion market and squeezed it for huge profits. Using tactics honed in New York, they made millions of dollars, but they ultimately helped to leave the industry in tatters and the lives of immigrant drivers on the edge of ruin.
New Yorkers used a similar playbook in several cities across the United States: They inflated medallion prices, provided high-risk loans to buyers and collected interest and fees before the bubbles burst and the markets collapsed. Medallion prices rose sevenfold in some places, soaring to $700,000 in Boston, $550,000 in Philadelphia, $400,000 in Miami and $250,000 in San Francisco.”
re: South Park.
Nice to see they brought back Mr. Mouse, that Jonas Brothers episode from 2014 is a classic.
11:37 I’m sorry, did someone say something? I
Was napping.
I read that NYT article earlier today…the Times has officially entered HS newspaper/college satire rag territory. Without even a pitstop at tabloid.
Basically, the industry was upended by a major technological and labor change trend but we believe that absence the change effected by that fact something may have happened so we are going to headline the hypothetical.
Are there any editors left over there? Remember the headline is “How New Yorkers Plundered the Chicago Taxi Trade”. From the article……..
“The average price of a Chicago medallion rose to nearly $400,000 before prices began plummeting in 2013. They had been selling for less than $50,000 in 2006, records show…
Today, a Chicago taxi medallion is worth $30,000, or less, and many owners have given up. Forty percent of the city’s cabs are currently not in operation.
Unlike in New York, where regulations and the density of the city core have partially shielded yellow cabs from the effects of competition from ride-hailing companies, the taxi industries in Chicago and other cities have been devastated by Uber and Lyft. But industry veterans said the reckless practices would have led to a crisis regardless.”
They really will write anything.