From Patch:
Don’t Blame Trump Tax Cuts For Essex County Home Values: Opinion
Is President Donald Trump responsible for home values in Essex County? Point the finger somewhere else, some local residents say.
Recently, ProPublica and Fortune released a list of the 30 counties which have seen the largest percentage declines in the values of their homes after the Trump administration enacted its controversial Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Essex County – where homeowners saw an 11.3 percent dip – was right at the top of the list.
The 2017 tax reforms capped federal deductions for state and local real estate and income taxes at $10,000 a year and also eliminated some mortgage interest deductions. However, that’s not the reason property values are stagnating in New Jersey, said Adam Kraemer, a Republican candidate for the Essex County Board of Chosen Freeholders.Subscribe
The study and the reporting of the study, may be accurate on a technical basis. but is misleading in telling what is really occurring because of the omission of certain other parts of the economic situation in the state of New Jersey and omitting other parts of the changes in the tax code from 2018 forward. The capping of the the state and local tax credit at $10,000 against federal income tax in combination of lower federal tax rates for all and larger standard deductions for federal income tax fillers that started in tax year 2018 was a progressive tax change. People, with less income rent more often and if they own homes they tend to be of lesser value and thus subject to less property tax. Those with lower income, also tend to have less state income taxes. Thus lower income tax filers did not benefit from previous federal tax code, with regard to state and local taxes being deductible from federal income taxes. So the negative impact of the federal tax code change was on people in New Jersey and in other places, with high incomes who paid a lot in state income tax, and/or those with high value homes that paid a lot in property taxes. The reduction in corporate tax rate in the nation has resulted in increased wages and increased job growth across the nation as corporations had more cash on hand to invest and grow business. Even in New Jersey, a state know for high business taxes and extensive regulation on business job growth occurred and wages increased. Thus, the tax code has generally, been good for the nation and for New Jersey.
From the Philly Business Journal:
Fed survey: South Jersey businesses increasingly optimistic about hiring, sales outlook
National economic indicators may be sparking concerns a recession could be on its way, but new numbers out of South Jersey show the area’s businesses are continuing to grow their sales numbers and their staffs.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s quarterly South Jersey Business Survey asks respondents — members of the Chamber of Commerce of Southern New Jersey — to rate whether general business activity in the region and within their own company is increasing or decreasing. The survey also asks the companies whether their total sales, number of employees, prices they pay and prices they charge are up or down in the quarter.
Companies reported mostly strong numbers in each category. About 53.8% of individual firms said business activity was higher in the third quarter, up from 38.9% in the quarter before. Roughly 43% said sales were up in Q3, a jump from 35.6% in the prior three months.
Growth in current employment numbers seemed to level out a bit in the third quarter. While 6.5% of respondents said the total number of employees at their company dropped in Q3, compared to 8.2% in the quarter before, more companies reported steady employment numbers. About 59% said their staff size remained the same this quarter, a 6.9 point jump.
Overall employee numbers were the one dark spot, as 30% of companies said their employee count was higher in Q3, a decrease from the 36.7% who saw their total number of employees grow in Q2.
Fears about a possible recession have been simmering in recent months, after the yield curve inverted in July, manufacturing output declined for two straight quarters and wage growth hit its slowest pace in three years.
When asked to predict how the next six months will play out, however, companies were increasingly optimistic.
“All of the survey’s six-month forecast indicators improved from their readings in the second quarter,” the report states.
NJ’s shining star democrats.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2019/10/15/nj-sen-scutari-barely-came-work-linden-prosecutor-report-says/3984549002/
I’m a voice in the wilderness against the popular opinion advanced by self interested NY media executives (who were ground zero and scorched by the tax changes) regarding what the taxes represent and their impact. Even for me, though, this article goes a bit too far by tying in wage and job growth. What ever happened to just plain old factual, unbiased reporting and rigorous reasoning? Oh well….
More interestingly, DM nominated for Rock and Roll HOF.
Poor Lebron.
So I was literally run off the road by someone pulling a two lane switch on 78 yesterday when I was in their blind spot. They had no idea and were probably blasting their music because they ignored my horn. Ended up with my left tires in the grass at 75 mph. Nearly lost control of the car.
It’s all on camera. Filing a complaint today. The fact that it was on camera changes the entire dynamic. In the old days, I probably would have reacted differently.
The trump tax plan is an existential threat to local machine politics. They are no longer subsidized by low tax states. Much of that local machine spending goes toward fake news propaganda so it’s a threat to the fake news industry as well.
So, from what I understand, the liberals want universal health care which will be paid for by the middle class a.k.a you and I. In exchange, we get to stand in line for medical care that will be on par with a makeshift military tent short on supplies and void of qualified personnel. And those who vote for this want to be taken seriously?
I wonder how many dicks the President can take at one time?
Documents obtained by ProPublica show stark differences in how Donald Trump’s businesses reported some expenses, profits and occupancy figures for two Manhattan buildings, giving a lender different figures than they provided to New York City tax authorities. The discrepancies made the buildings appear more profitable to the lender — and less profitable to the officials who set the buildings’ property tax.
For instance, Trump told the lender that he took in twice as much rent from one building as he reported to tax authorities during the same year, 2017. He also gave conflicting occupancy figures for one of his signature skyscrapers, located at 40 Wall Street.
Lenders like to see a rising occupancy level as a sign of what they call “leasing momentum.” Sure enough, the company told a lender that 40 Wall Street had been 58.9% leased on Dec. 31, 2012, and then rose to 95% a few years later. The company told tax officials the building was 81% rented as of Jan. 5, 2013.
Get More Trump, Inc.
Stay up to date with email updates from WNYC and ProPublica about their ongoing investigations.
A dozen real estate professionals told ProPublica they saw no clear explanation for multiple inconsistencies in the documents. The discrepancies are “versions of fraud,” said Nancy Wallace, a professor of finance and real estate at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley. “This kind of stuff is not OK.”
New York City’s property tax forms state that the person signing them “affirms the truth of the statements made” and that “false filings are subject to all applicable civil and criminal penalties.”
“Poor Lebron.”
Lol. Net worth? $450 million.
Did Oblammy know Biden was using the office of the Vice Presidency to exchange favors?
8:58 do you know where your own assh@le is locates?
“Documents obtained by ProPublica show stark differences in how Donald Trump’s businesses reported some expenses, profits and occupancy figures for two Manhattan buildings, giving a lender different figures than they provided to New York City tax authorities.”
Eh, need real backup.
Variances in accounting for the exact same results exist producing different results in other spheres….cash v accrual, GAAP v tax, IAS v GAAP, etc.
Answering to the discrepancies referenced absent a smoking gun is a layup. And the issue is for his corporate entities, which I would be pretty certain had some officer (not Trump) signing the documents.
Red herring. Dig deeper.
Why couldn’t Biden wait a few years to unethically cash in like Obama, Gore, Bill, and Hillary?
LOL
Obama did not wait. $65 million advance for their books a month out of office.
No doubt, throwing the upper class WORKER under the bus for stock holders. Can’t stand this crap. You changed the rules without any warning. It’s wrong, no matter how you defend it. There should have been a discussion that included the actual people getting screwed…
“So the negative impact of the federal tax code change was on people in New Jersey and in other places, with high incomes who paid a lot in state income tax, and/or those with high value homes that paid a lot in property taxes. The reduction in corporate tax rate in the nation has resulted in increased wages and increased job growth across the nation as corporations had more cash on hand to invest and grow business. Even in New Jersey, a state know for high business taxes and extensive regulation on business job growth occurred and wages increased. Thus, the tax code has generally, been good for the nation and for New Jersey.”
Trump should release his tax returns. I am tired of hearing about it. So what if he doesn’t have a 3 billion but maybe $300 million. Who cares it’s way more than 99% make in their lifetime.
Baby Dick can always sell his upcoming prison memoirs.
pumps – you are no where near upper class. None of us are. It used to be $10 million now it’s $100 Million.
Increased job growth and increased wages are not a product of that tax law. They bought stock buy backs with it and gave themselves bonuses. The increase in job growth and wages has everything to do with the economy and its fundamentals.
Enough with the partisan crap. Enough with the stupid division. Let’s start using honesty and common sense to guide this country.
Essex – why the infatuation with a 74 year old shriveled up man junk? You want to have a measuring contest on live TV with you and Trump and Anderson Cooper holding the ruler?
meant upper middle class worker….upper class doesn’t work.
Jamie Dimon knows why I know, he can see and hear from his rich clients pulling back folks.
That is all you need to know, when the rich’s expectation of asset price appreciation declines then like dominoes they pull back on spending and hiring. Companies pull back on spending and capital investments as their expectations of great returns sours.
It may be gradual and short lived or worse based upon expectations like Warren getting the nomination.
Pumps a well-paid professional aka upper middle class is someone who is a VP at a Fortune 500. You are neither.
What can I say, I like mushrooms that smell like Ivanka.
What does this have to do with me? I said it’s messed up and that’s my position. I’m glad that you are okay with changing rules mid game without warning.
aka all downturns are self induced; either by greedily overproducing or greedily pulling back. Doesn’t have to be this way…
Juice Box says:
October 16, 2019 at 9:23 am
Jamie Dimon knows why I know, he can see and hear from his rich clients pulling back folks.
That is all you need to know, when the rich’s expectation of asset price appreciation declines then like dominoes they pull back on spending and hiring. Companies pull back on spending and capital investments as their expectations of great returns sours.
According to lib, “I’m rich, bitch!” (chapelle voice)
That pension makes me filthy rich, right lib? Need to take it away.
I listened to a little bit of last night’s debate. I was surprised at how much hate big tech is getting from the Dems. Those social media companies are full of lefty drones that must be having mixed feelings watching that. The latest trick is to throw antitrust lawyers at everyone you don’t like – since antitrust law is basically arbitrary and anyone who isn’t a grain farmer can be found “guilty” given the faulty economic premises deployed. Seems negative for tech stocks. Dems want to break them up, yet Repubs also seem angry at them, thinking they are Dem backers.
Also, I realized that Kamala Harris has a really annoying voice and way of speaking. Kind of nasal, wavering, and whiny sounding, probably part of answering the mystery of why she hasn’t taken off. She also had some dumb thing about how she was demanding that Twitter should be forced to shut down Trump’s account. By what right? Do we really want politicians getting into legal battles trying to silence opponents? What about freedom of speech? He’s hanging himself in public, why do you want to stop that?
Pensions should be deemed unconstitutional. It’s extortion to fund the lifestyles of a selected group.
I think Pumps qualifies as upper middle class when including his wife.
Just about anyone in NJ who works a desk job above entry level qualifies as upper middle class on national level income statistics. Cost of living is higher though so that can be a bit deceptive.
Kamala was on talk radio this AM. Says Trump is guilty of crimes “witness intimidation” and should be removed from Twitter, that’s not the only reason, his political speech is not factual says Warren and he should be removed because he is lying about Biden and son.
So they left the Kamala, Warren etc are saying if Facebook, Twitter and social media don’t censor speech they don’t like they are going after them to break them up and regulate their rules around political speech.
Without the presidents modern day bully pulpit he won’t have a voice, might as well have Congress elect the president.
No One – since when is upper middle class two jobs? The wife is supposed to be home playing tennis and arranging and attending social events not slaving away 9-5 in some office cubicle.
What class do you have to be in to afford to buy coffee + lunch at work every day?
Also if you don’t have a 20% + savings rate – are you really in the class you think you are in?
I liked Yang’s point about the The Fourth Industrial Revolution. At least he is honest and says it will continue to eliminate even more middle class jobs. His trucker friend Fred was a nice story as well, not some claptrap about warmonger McCain.
I bought my second home in 2011. That’s proof of my family income that I was able to get a loan at that time when they were making it impossible to get loans. Eight years later at 330k, I don’t worry about money. People crying that 200k or 300k is not enough are insane. What world are you living in? How much money do you piss away on nothing to claim 200k or 300k is not rich. Sure, you have to work, but wtf else are you going to do with your life? Being rich, and not having to work is a death sentence. You quickly lose your skills, both professionally and socially. You will be so bored unless you spend massive amounts of money entertaining yourself and keeping up with being socially active.
So when I hear that 500k is not upper class, I laugh. That’s the definition of insanity. You should have more money than you know what to do with if you use it efficiently. Yes, you need more money if you want to piss your money away on 5 million dollar paintings, 2 million dollar homes (like 2-3 of them), 1,000 dollar jeans, and 5,000 dollar suits.
If you keep it real, 200k or more is all you need even in high cost nj. I eat regularly at high end restaurants, and go on high end vacations. Have European luxury vehicles and a beautiful home.
I feel filthy rich under a 330k income, to the point in 10 years or so, I won’t know what do with all this extra capital. People that say this is not enough just want to keep up with the jones and have more than everyone else.
I was hoping Kamala would choose Willie Brown to talk about as her surprising friend.
Tell us about your favorite high end restaurants and vacation destinations, pumps.
This oughta be gooooood.
FWIW, with TSLA hitting a high channel ahead of earnings I’m legging into a low cost short via options (defined risk, please do not actually short this stock).
Remember, I got spanked yesterday so do your own analysis and trade within your limits.
I have nothing to prove except that 200k or more is all you need to live on in high cost nj to have a good life. You want to live like a 1%er and piss money away, well that’s another story.
Fyi, who is always giving the good food recommendations on this blog?
No One says:
October 16, 2019 at 11:07 am
Tell us about your favorite high end restaurants and vacation destinations, pumps.
Lib does too.
Tell us about your favorite high end restaurants and vacation destinations, pumps.
Rutt’s Hut.
The Jordan Peterson video on IQ is very specific on this subject. If you don’t interact with people in your job in a value added way, you are fuct.
Juice Box says:
October 16, 2019 at 10:51 am
I liked Yang’s point about the The Fourth Industrial Revolution. At least he is honest and says it will continue to eliminate even more middle class jobs. His trucker friend Fred was a nice story as well, not some claptrap about warmonger McCain.
“It may be gradual and short lived or worse based upon expectations like Warren getting the nomination.”
Leon Cooperman on CNBC pre-market show. Very rationale, straight shooter. Said unequivocably if Warren gets into office market is off 25%.
Guy’s father came over as a plumber’s apprentice. Dropped dead of a heart attack hauling a sink up the stairs of a walkup at age 70. Cooperman himself was born in the South Bronx, went to HS there, went to Hunter College (CUNY) in the Bronx. Did a quick stint at Columbia Business School which got him into GS and off and running.
He is one of the 607 billionaires in America, weighing in with $3.2 billion, after having given so far about $1B away. Lives in Short Hills. Brilliant guy.
Rumor – Prudential sent out an internal memo to all employees offering a buyout of 3 weeks of pay for every one year at the company to leave.
“Also, I realized that Kamala Harris has a really annoying voice and way of speaking. Kind of nasal, wavering, and whiny sounding, probably part of answering the mystery of why she hasn’t taken off. ”
So funny…didn’t see last night but that was one of my biggest takeaways from the first debate….dual thoughts of “I can’t listen to this woman’s voice for four years” and toying with “damn if she gets the nomination and has to debate Trump one-on-one, two hours of that nasal whine on national tv may just give him enough swing votes”.
Re: Pru cuts and Yang comments yesterday…..closed only five days ago.
http://news.prudential.com/prudential-financial-to-acquire-assurance-iq-inc-leading-consumer-solutions-platform-for-health-and-financial-wellness-needs-for-235-billion.htm
200k is definitely not enough to live in a 4 BR/2.5 ba type home ~15K taxes, unless you plan on saving $0 and not maxing your 401k.
200K ends up being around 10.5K/mo after taxes, health care, 401k, etc
Now take out:
2000 on mortgage
1250 on taxes
1000 on two car payments (bought not leased)
350 on insurance (2 cars + homeowners)
500 on home maintenance + nice to haves
200 on car maintenance
500 on food/groceries/personal care
300 on restaurants
200 on misc gifts
500 on vacation
200 on cell phones
100 on internet/streaming services
300 on gas/train
250 on electric/gas/water
100 on entertainment
250 each on wife/husband personal spending
—– that leaves you at 2250 remaining – if you have a kid that budget is busted, 2 kids and it is really busted.
Bill DeBlasio will take the best ideas from other school districts and implement them in NYC.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/16/uk-teacher-fired-for-telling-jewish-pupils-they-would-be-sent-to-gas-chambers/
Rutt’s Hut – Used to ride to Rutt’s Hut in the warm weather with my biker friends every Wed night after racing up and down the 15 miles of Rt 21 – Newark and back. Good times…
Juice (and others),
Don’t feed the lying troll. Please, please, please ignore him. It was so nice the other day, when we didn’t have to wade through his bullsh1t to debate each other. If you choose to continue to engage, know that you are arguing with a compulsive liar, like Trump.
Today’s opinion piece is crapola. It was proven to be a flaming turd the moment the following was mentioned, “The reduction in corporate tax rate in the nation has resulted in increased wages and increased job growth across the nation as corporations had more cash on hand to invest and grow business.”
The economic return never happened. Share buybacks juiced earnings. Juiced earnings, by and large, support the 48% of Americans who participate in the stock market. Of course, the vast majority of shares being held by that 100 million and up class. In 2018, A whopping 84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. And that includes everyone’s stakes in pension plans, 401(k)’s and individual retirement accounts, as well as trust funds, mutual funds and college savings programs like 529 plans.
I watched most of the debate last night. Only machine politician Kamala was against Trump having social media accounts. Only a lying cheerleader on the right would stretch this to mean that the Left (and especially Warren who clearly was against closing Trump’s account) is pro social media censorship. Though, Juice just nailed the entrance requirement for FoxNews perfectly.
I actually thought Warren did extremely well, though she would have done even better if she didn’t show so much visual emotion whenever her policies were attacked. The stark differences between DNC player Kamala and Warren/Bernie were clear as day yesterday. I also thought the Gayor showed a ton of intelligence and could one day be our first packing president. Dude gets it. He just needs a little more experience. Surprisingly, he appeared to be the most learned of Middle Eastern issues among the whole panel.
Biden is officially done. He might have the ability to make smart decisions and his toughness was on display, but his speech patterns are a lot like Trump’s in that he needs to slow down and think about what he’s going to say before he utters total untranslatable nonsense.
A pleasant change occurred as well. There was no talk of identity politics, almost no mention of climate change and way less Trump bashing. Real economic policy was actually explored and debated. It helped that CNN focused almost entirely on the five candidates who at some point or another broke the 15% barrier in the polls.
Yang, is definitely the mouthpiece of the next generation. Shame he has the personality of a moldy sponge.
Think your numbers need to get bumped up…..
1000 on two car payments (bought not leased) – feels high, no cash down?
500 on food/groceries/personal care – way low for a family of four, I can’t even spend that as a single guy, that’s $16 a day….
300 on restaurants – low, that’s two decent dinners out for two; one every two weeks, and nothing with kids
500 on vacation – 6k for the entire family feels low, especially if includes summer and one school holiday
100 on entertainment – wildly low, especially for a family. Not even a concert ticket for one. Although I guess internet porn is free for a while now….
Aside from the above that remaining 2k is evaporated – and more – if your kids participate in any organized teams…..
Think your numbers need to get bumped up…..
1000 on two car payments (bought not leased) – feels high, no cash down?
500 on food/groceries/personal care – way low for a family of four, I can’t even spend that as a single guy, that’s $16 a day….
300 on restaurants – low, that’s two decent dinners out for two; one every two weeks, and nothing with kids
500 on vacation – 6k for the entire family feels low, especially if includes summer and one school holiday
100 on entertainment – wildly low, especially for a family. Not even a concert ticket for one. Although I guess internet p0rn is free for a while now….
Aside from the above that remaining 2k is evaporated – and more – if your kids participate in any organized teams….
Add another 500 to that mortgage. I was too conservative.
Well my point is there is no way 200k is anywhere near well off in NJ
Maybe you get more money monthly once someone hits max social security, the real problem is the amount you end up with after taxes and healthcare and retirement
Real economic policy was actually explored and debated.
Lowest unemployment in history, more jobs than people to fill them and investments generating returns based on earnings. Raising taxes on the middle class and government-sponsored stimulus packages are not economic policies, they’re wealth redistribution mechanisms.
“if your kids participate in any organized teams….”
You can say that again. Hockey costs our household probably 10K per year. And neither kid is AAA where you REALLY have to travel.
Speaking of vacation spots we spent the weekend at La Quinta (Palm Springs)
It was built to resemble a Pueblo village and the irony was not lost on me seeing rich Caucasians paying to live in tony tiny huts while the Mexicans kept up the place.
Eddie,
Lowest unemployment in history. First, hardly better than Obama’s numbers and the jobs are almost entirely bottom rung. Also, the rate of change was much larger under Obama than under Trump. If anything, it’s leveling off under Trump which means his policies are actually slowing unemployment. But it sure sounds better to say “Unemployment is the least ever,” than to say, “I created less jobs than my predecessor.” Admittedly, I see tons of help wanted signs, though mainly wherever I go for fast food, or at convenience stores. Not so many open positions where a white collar is required. Gator is looking as the commute is killing her. It’s pretty skimpy right now.
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-unemployment-rate.png?s=usurtot&v=201910041236V20190821&d1=20090101&d2=20191231
Wealth redistribution mechanisms – really? None have been more powerful than tax cuts on the rich. This is an absolute fact.
It’s nice to see Trump’s popularity fading. One can only ignore his lies for so long. Even my old parents in Florida are finally starting to see through the charade. It’s no longer, “Though I think he’s a showman, I agree with much of what he says.” Now it’s, “We’ve had enough of the show, where are the results?” I spoke with them yesterday as they needed my Amazon Prime to save on free shipping again. You know, there’s probably a decent business opportunity in being a prime account owner and purchasing products for others through your account for a nominal shipping fee. I wonder how many shipping addresses and credit cards you can have in one Amazon Prime account?
Gary,
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/business/economy/donald-trump-jobs-created.html
Yeah, fake news. I know. You might want to read it anyway. Or you can trust the man with three major bankruptcies and more failed enterprises than Shark Tank could incubate.
If 200k is not enough to live on, please leave the teachers and other govt employees living in nj alone.
Which one is it? On one hand, you cry about teacher pay, and then on the other hand, 200k is nowhere near to live good in this state (i disagree). Which one is it?
Promised myself I would stay away from direct political debates today but couldn’t ignore the following….
First sentence of the third paragrpah in that NYT article, which obviously is no friend of Trump….
“Mr. Trump’s tax cuts unquestionably stimulated the American economy in 2018, helping to push economic growth to 2.5 percent for the year and fueling an increase in manufacturing jobs. “
This is kind of cool. It took Obama nearly eight years to reach the disapproval ratings Trumps reached in his first.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Very cool charts on this page, though admittedly, approval ratings are a poor benchmark to judge performance by. We must all remember that the masses are asses.
Nope. Orange man bad. Therefore false.
And 200k doesn’t make you rich, but if you can’t have a good life on that, I don’t know what to tell you. Get a cheaper car, or cheaper home, live within your means. The point is, that you shouldn’t be crying about money at a 200k or higher family income. You can live a wonderful upper middle class lifestyle on that amount.
Money doesn’t make you happy. But it helps.
Left. Absolutely. But short-lived.
Stop thinking left vs. right. You know I was not an Obama lover and abhorred his stimulus as much as I abhor Trump’s policies.
Where I think we fundamentally disagree is trickle down versus helping the middle class. I think income inequality, fueled by a purchased government will be the eventual downfall of our country. The truth is, this is a bi-partisan effort.
IT’s all Lies Lies I tell you! (Don’t ask about paying for it)
“How much of the monetary gains from the Trump economic speedup have gone to the middle class? If you ask Democratic senators and presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, the answer to that question is … almost none.
” [Donald] Trump’s economy is great for billionaires, not for working people,” Sanders likes to say. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi grouses that under the Trump agenda, “the rich get richer, and everyone else is stuck paying the bill.”
Uh-huh. That’s been the standard liberal riff for the last couple of years as they try to explain how a president who they said would create a second Great Depression has created boom times with the lowest inflation and unemployment in half a century.
But not a word of this is true, according to new Census Bureau data on the incomes of America’s middle class. This study by former Census Bureau researchers and now statisticians at Sentier Research has found gigantic income gains for the middle class under Trump. The median or average-income family has seen a gain of $5,003 since Trump came into office. Median family income is now (August 2019) $65,976, up from about $61,000 when he entered office (January 2017).
Under George W. Bush, the household income gains were a little over $400 in eight years, and under Barack Obama the gains were $1,043. That was in eight years for each. Under Trump, in less than three years, the extra income is about three times larger.
These gains under Trump are so large in such a short period of time that I asked the Sentier Research team to triple-check the numbers. Sure enough, on each occasion, the income swing was $5,000.
This is a bonanza for the middle class, and the extra income in tens of millions of Americans’ pockets is getting spent. Consumers are king in America today, and fatter wallets translate into more store sales. Home Depot and Lowe’s recently recorded huge sales surges.
The tax cut also added an additional $2,500 to a typical family of four’s after-tax incomes. So after taking account of taxes owed, the income of most middle-class families is up closer to $6,000 in the Trump era.
Memo to Pelosi: That ain’t crumbs.
Ronald Reagan used to talk about the importance of real take-home pay. He asked voters in 1980, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” (when Jimmy Carter was elected). Thanks to high taxes, high inflation and high unemployment in the late 1970s, the answer to that question was clearly no. Reagan won and Carter lost.
Trump should begin asking Americans if they are better off than they were four years ago. Today, the answer to that question is clearly yes. It’s the economy, stupid. Everyone — especially the middle class — is sharing in the fruits of the Trump boom.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/10/15/its_a_middle-class_boom_141497.html
Where are the mysteriously missing gains for the upper class?
All my families gains are eaten by toll, gas, health care, etc. increases. Not so much for that 400,000+ class.
A link to the study would be nice too. Then again, the author is a staunch conservative.
These gains under Trump are so large in such a short period of time that I asked the Sentier Research team to triple-check the numbers. Sure enough, on each occasion, the income swing was $5,000.
I’m having my best year in earnings in my adult life. Wasn’t it just two days ago when this blog mentioned New Jersey was wealthier and less poorer? This, despite the boo boo 10K tax credit? So, I’ll ask again: what is the democrats plan for the economy?
By me…the funniest part is there is a group of 2 who beg for money in the two shopping centers near me. They setup shop, the woman sits there with a sign and the man plays a sax or accordion. Their sign says they need money to support their two kids and make rent. No matter where they setup now, Target, Wegmans, of the three brand new shops (Home Sense, TJ Maxx, Burlington), they are setup in front of a “Now Hiring” sign.
There’s a few other beggars in those centers. A local cop told me that they actually commute from New York everyday to beg here. Must be a profitable enterprise. I find it funny that people still fall for this stuff when they are surrounded by stores currently hiring.
I’m seeing the same thing a lot more around here. A pretty well dressed person held the door for me at Dunkin Donuts in Bloomfield for change. I swear I saw the same guy a week earlier holding the door for me at CVS in Montclair. Both times I told him I appreciate his courtesy, but I give to charity, not individuals. He thanked me both times.
Juice,
Where’s the returns on the wealthy? You don’t see the importance in leaving this out? I looked for the report all over the internet, but it’s nowhere to be found.
Time to drive 60 miles in 150 minutes. See you all later.
Opinionated:
An often irritating personality trait by which a stubborn, strong willed person always has to give their strong opinions, sometimes to the point of always believing they have to be right and have the last word.
https://www.sentierresearch.com/reports/Sentier_Household_Income_Trends_Report_August_2019_10_03_19.pdf
Libturd, seen crazy things done with ping pong balls says:
October 16, 2019 at 1:30 pm
Juice,
Where’s the returns on the wealthy? You don’t see the importance in leaving this out? I looked for the report all over the internet, but it’s nowhere to be found.
Time to drive 60 miles in 150 minutes. See you all later.
1:20 the Dems plan is to pay down the massive deficit the GOP ran up in 3 short years.
Really the same plan as last time after Bush’s term .
From the Sentie Research link posted above:
“This report on median household income for August 2019 is based on data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of the nation’s official statistics on employment and unemployment. This nationally representative sample included 49,452 interviewed households and 96,015 adult members.”
“Estimates of household income from the survey are based on a single question that asks respondents to report the total money income received by the household during the previous 12-month period. The definition of income used in the survey includes the following:”
To get any kind of data smoothing you would need to look at the economy when the survey was taken and also for a period of time prior to the survey. This is not meant to dismiss the survey but it would provide context and further clarity regarding over or underperformance.
Eddie, congrats, sounds like you are crushing it. Some are killing it and others getting killed. I am amazed at how much money is being made by the 24 – 35 age segment in various occupations but wonder when the economy slows and AI becomes even more prevalent will this age group see their peak earnings come and go. In my industry, wages stagnated a long time ago.
That’s a lot of money left over to do whatever. That cash is a poor families entire income in a year after taxes. Supporting an entire family on that.
“that leaves you at 2250 remaining – if you have a kid that budget is busted, 2 kids and it is really busted.”
Also, I don’t know your tax situation, but you don’t get a tax refund check? Add that to your total..
Essex,
Lol. A.k.a. as an excuse to extract more money from the production class to give to their cronies and toadies.
I think a lot of the income inequality is artificial, stoked by the low to negative interest rate policies foisted on the worl by central planners at central banks. So much distortion comes from this, but most people cannot track it or see it. Lower corporate tax rates are no big deal in comparison.
Libturd, I think you need to move back to Montclair or take an inexpensive vacation to Venezuela to remind you how inefficient it is to have more of the economy run by goverment.
The best way to avoid companies buying government favors is to reduce the power of govt to interfere in the first place. Instead, everyone thinks they are an expert central planner. We will just get more dumb crap. Trump thinks we can get rich via mercantilism, Dems think we can get rich by attacking corporations and the rich.
Stock market falling 25% would reduce inequality, so we have that supposed silver lining to look forward to. But then NJ pensions will also be that much more underfunded.
Lib,
There is no critical thinking for Orange clown supporters on this blog. Ed believes Obama job numbers were lies and now Dumpy’s are crystal clean, showing his amazing economic work. Why bother even trying to debate? There may be good paying jobs but beauty is eye of beholder. Young, single, no kids, making a hundred? Easily could make $115 to $125k in NYC. Older, married, kids, senior experince looking to make 150k to 200k..absolutely zero in burbs and very little in NYC. I deal with it everyday. I don’t care what you do, how long you’ve don’t nor how much you made in past, you will get tops $90 hr quote max in NYC. There is no leverage or desperation to hire. They will only hire within strict financial parameters. The rules are absurd in banking.
Hate to break it to you, but both are governed by human nature. Reduce govt interference and you end up with more corruption. Mafia is perfect example. It took the government to put an end to private sector shake downs. The govt shake down is much kinder to the wallet and your life (if you can’t come up with the money).
Get it through your head, it’s not the systems, it’s the people. Human nature is a b!tch.
“The best way to avoid companies buying government favors is to reduce the power of govt to interfere in the first place. Instead, everyone thinks they are an expert central planner. We will just get more dumb crap. Trump thinks we can get rich via mercantilism, Dems think we can get rich by attacking corporations and the rich.”
2:08 middle class is gettin hollowed out buddy.
You are just a cog in a big machine. With fewer and fewer options
Once your job is phased out and they all get phased out.
How do I feel about not working? Honestly I haven’t felt it all financially, but there isn’t much of a cushion for emergencies either. My take home can be pretty good, but at what cost. I opted out.
Long commutes, stupid co-workers, ignorant bosses. I am a lot happier being away from all of that. Believe me when I say that you are nothing in the scheme of the “productive class” they could phase you out with a keystroke and no one would notice.
I understand that probably keeps you up at night, multiple kids, wife probably barely earns, I get it. You need to feel better about yourself in the face of things and Trump helps you feel that way. It’s a tale as old as time.
Another idea for you. Sacrifice hard for two years, and save up that extra savings. Buy a rental unit with it, invest it in the market, or start a small business with it. Just two years of sacrifice will gain you enough passive income to not make you feel so poor.
That’s what you people miss about me, my job is not my sole income, I worked hard to create passive income that will eventually support my family. It only grows. How do you think my family income is at 330k? Only from employment? Come on, now. I’ve been a small business owner (landlord) since 19.
“that leaves you at 2250 remaining – if you have a kid that budget is busted, 2 kids and it is really busted.”
Pumps ~200k you can live well in NJ, but you won’t be able to aggressively save. You’ll be spending all of your money basically. After taxes, FICA, healthcare and 401k 10k is about right. Assume a 800k home, 600k mortgage, 18k property tax, that’s ~$5k per month in PITI, assume utilities of $500, assume $800 for groceries family of 4, $200 cable/internet/phone, $250 per month for the landscaper, $300 for the house cleaner, $350 for car insurance you’re at 7400 without talking about any discretionary spend just fixed costs of an upper middle class family.
My sister and brother-in law pretty much roll this way, 250k in salary and they spend it all pretty much, no savings outside 401k and no college savings for kids my sister is depending on my mother who is putting away money every year. To live comfortably with breathing room 300-400k is needed. Housing expense is a big driver, if you can keep that to 2500-3000 per month you are good on 200k. Most professionals in Jersey are looking at 5k per month if not more in housing expense. This is why so many are 2 income families. Property tax is a big driver.
re: “no college savings for kids”
Danny Noonan: I planned to go to law school after I graduated, but it looks like my folks won’t have enough money to put me through college.
Judge Smails: Well, the world needs ditch diggers, too.
Lacey Underall: [to Danny] Nice try.
Classic: https://youtu.be/LQMr9DvXXF8
Jcer,
You’ll appreciate it. My IB had a blood drive. Told co-worker they are probably selling our blood in the black market. I was only half joking. This place would shake you out for a nickel right now. Shoved 6 of us into 5×8 closet space to save on RE costs. Literally we get stopped by Fooda worker if you try to grab two forks. Not joking. This is reality world’s greatest economy. More like Romania’s great economy.
Bystander….. if you work for MS or GS, they are fcuked right now….. sorry…. if they can’t lever up, they aren’t going to be able to make big coin…. you need an asset base…
Bystander says:
October 16, 2019 at 4:00 pm
Jcer,
You’ll appreciate it. My IB had a blood drive. Told co-worker they are probably selling our blood in the black market. I was only half joking. This place would shake you out for a nickel right now. Shoved 6 of us into 5×8 closet space to save on RE costs. Literally we get stopped by Fooda worker if you try to grab two forks. Not joking. This is reality world’s greatest economy. More like Romania’s great economy.
D,
Thanks for the link. Will read shortly once I’m done with my work.
NoOne,
“Libturd, I think you need to move back to Montclair or take an inexpensive vacation to Venezuela to remind you how inefficient it is to have more of the economy run by goverment.” Perhaps you are right and this used to be my position. Having experienced more healthcare than most small towns deal with in a lifetime, though. I’m not sure certain industries (those which profit in human rights) can manage themselves without greed getting in the way. It’s like the Red Cross. Once a great organization that helped a ton of people in a time of disaster that now is a great place to enrich their employees (17% goes to disaster relief).
In college I was a big fan of the Soc1al Democrats which in short is the government regulating rights related business with the rest left to operate with minimal regulation. So what business am I referring to? Only three industries. Law, insurance and education. These three industries need not be expensive, but only are because of how necessary they are. You really can’t get by without them. So if you were to allow one entity to administrate it. You would obtain huge gains in economy of scale. These gains should help offset the high costs to train the participants in these fields. Likewise, insurance should improve dramatically once the profit motive is removed. Though the burning question remains. Can the government and its penchant for bureaucracy building be trusted?
Personally, I think it can. But not before we get the lobbyist/PAC/campaign finance structure completely removed. It’s been Bernie’s point all along and he’s the only major politician to outright refuse blood money.
If there was a will, there would be a way. Currently, the will isn’t there because the parties have become complete experts at breadcrumbs and circuses. The masses are asses. See click bait for your proof. Heck ChiFi can’t stop reading the Post!
Here is the whole thing right here…..
https://youtu.be/fjs2gPa5sD0?t=431
Watch from 431 to the end….. brilliant
4:13 there is an awareness but really no empathy for displaced workers. Bootstraps.
D.
Check this out. I googled the authors of that survey. Seems like they played this record before. Like three years into Reagan’s first term. :P
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-06-28-fi-1503-story.html
Check out the authors of the survey. Now check out the names of the census workers in the article. Pretty interesting coincidence. I still have to dig into the research, but ifs I was a believer in these here’s dark webs, I’d say we have a controversy on our hands (or at least a narrative follower).
I lost a ton of IQ points once I became a teacher.
It’s probably the least intellectually stimulating job I have had.
Ironic.
The worst part? Having to dumb down content so that everyone in the room gets it.
Btw that wasn’t my budget but an example budget of 200k.
I have no kids and am in my 3br/1bath “starter home”. I can live comfortably, but not excessively. Don’t consider myself upper middle class at all.
You know why? You compare yourself to the people above you and not below you. There are a lot more people below you than there are above you. This is what happens to people in north jersey or other high cost areas. They lie to themselves and make claims that the costs are higher where they live, therefore they are just middle class because the guy down the street is doing way better than them.
If I can’t save 50,000 a year, I’m poor. Meanwhile almost entire population in the richest country in the world has nothing to their name. You are well off whether you realize it or not. Just being able to live in a “safe” location with a good school system in north jersey means you are rich. Of course you will compare yourself to alpine and come to the conclusion that you are poor because you can’t hang with the one percent. The one percent is a pure anomaly and no one should compare themselves to that overly compensated group.
Mike S says:
October 16, 2019 at 5:11 pm
Btw that wasn’t my budget but an example budget of 200k.
I have no kids and am in my 3br/1bath “starter home”. I can live comfortably, but not excessively. Don’t consider myself upper middle class at all.
In 1995, I managed to live in North Jersey at 18K per year. You are all spoiled brats. Believe me. A lot of people figure out a way to manage with a lot less. Yeah, you will not be keeping up with the Joneses.
First off, entire post is on point. That’s why I enjoy your posts.
You nail it. The only difference I see in my lifestyle, from 200k to current, is how much more I can save. Lifestyle not much different.
Also, maybe I’m out of touch. I strategically planned my life out. I bought a 650k home that I could I live in the rest of my life at a young age. So I don’t have to spend the 800k, I’m fortunate. I also only don’t have two car payments. My car turns 15 in May. My wife’s car is almost paid for as it turns 4 in May. I’m prob getting the new m3 when it comes out next year, but it’s hard to give up a nice car that has treated me well. It’s in great condition because I religiously take care of stuff. My wife and I had zero student loans, which also helps. So not carrying much debt, except a 2.75 mortgage for the next 11 years. So when I turn 50, I’ll have two properties paid for, and one generating significant income. Life is good sometimes.
JCer says:
October 16, 2019 at 3:22 pm
Pumps ~200k you can live well in NJ, but you won’t be able to aggressively save.
Again, if you buy a bunch of needless crap, you will never have enough money no matter how much you make. For this crowd(most of the population), the more they make, the more they spend it on stupid expensive sh!t.
That’s why I never understood why in the world someone would need to make a million dollars a year and not think it’s enough. What crazy mofos. What in the world do you need a 100 million for? Wtf?! So you could buy a 10 million dollar home? So cool!
Take your 10 million dollar home, sell it, and buy a million dollar home. Go specifically pick out some families that really need help, and give it to them. I guarantee you will be much happier. Still rich lifestyle, but now you are helping people which is what life is really about. The reward is priceless. Seeing those happy faces on those families…your money could never give you that feeling.
So I will never understand the 1%
You have to be a greedy sob to be a billionaire and move to a low tax location to save more money. That’s not smart, that’s greedy. Hiding the money offshore is beyond greed. Too bad these individuals will never understand it.
Pumpkin, you are putting your entire future in the hands of the Nj State Pension.
That oughta be fine.
“Stock market falling 25% would reduce inequality…”
Two Churchill quotes tossed out by Cooperman after his 25% down market comment on Warren this morning….
“We can have unequal wealth under capitalism or equal misery under s0c1alism” [paraphrase]
“You don’t make the poor richer by making the rich poorer.”
Speaking of the Post, someone caught a teacher one town over from me trying to collect dividends on his “gay straight alliance” advisorship.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/16/new-jersey-teacher-allegedly-sent-racy-photos-texts-to-student-to-start-relationship/
“Left…Stop thinking left vs. right. You know I was not an Obama lover and abhorred his stimulus as much as I abhor Trump’s policies…Where I think we fundamentally disagree is trickle down versus helping the middle class…”
Yeah, Lib, I think we are much more in agreement than conflict. Looking at an object from two different sides but coming to largely the same conclusion. I probably put a much higher emphasis on personal accountability for one’s situation and have much less empathy, or so I’ve been told. :)
Ouch. I know WHHS well…
Lol…yup! Just perfect.
Fortunately, I can survive without it. These other poor fools I work with will enjoy cat food.
ExEssex says:
October 16, 2019 at 6:19 pm
Pumpkin, you are putting your entire future in the hands of the Nj State Pension.
That oughta be fine.
And I plan on working till I die. I want to open up a boutique landscaping company. I’m the only worker. I will renovate your lawn, and set you up with top of the line turf that fits the conditions for your property. I will teach you how to maintain it and will be a call away if disease or poa hits.
Will take on like 4-7 customers at a time. They will pay me hourly. Different jobs, require different time. Obviously, will only cater to high end clientele. Grass is my hobby and I plan on making money off it after I leave teaching. Have a ton of knowledge that took a decade or more to develop. Lots of research put into it. Just enjoy looking at a perfect lawn I helped create from scratch. No easy task. High end lawns are not for the avg joe.
My grandmother is 87, and still doing yard work. She never stops working.
My aunt stopped letting my grandfather do work around the house, and the decline in health and mental capacity diminished significantly.
Moral of the story, you have to keep doing something. You are not meant to just stop doing things. It’s a death sentence, have to keep your mind and body working.
Regardless of this being Jersey, most of you sound like a bunch on nannies and need to get a real handle on what “middle” and “upper” class really is. Family of 4 breaking $100k is the upper end of middle class. The reality is that most of NJ is not living in an $800k home and spending $10k on sports. They’re living in a $250k home and playing in free rec leagues. I’m a long time voyeur on this site, love it, but I work with solid middles creating housing for lowers. They make it work and from the sounds of this comment line, they’re much happier than most here………For what it’s worth, my HH income is $550k+, 2 kids under 12, we live in a beautiful, but modest home probably barely worth $600k, own an equally modest beach home, 2 cars both over 5 years old, and enough side investments to never have to work if we so choose. Be grateful for what you have. I doubt anyone posting here is anything below upper.
7:05 sounds glamourous. Death might not come soon enough.
She enjoys it. Beautiful flower garden. Even grows her own jersey fresh raspberries. She planted them on my rental property too. So I get fresh organic raspberries for free.
She have fantastic life story. What she overcame is simply amazing.
Like I said, I enjoy it. That’s just me. Have to find what works for you in life. I’m simple, enjoy being outdoors messing around with the landscape. Enjoy the challenge of taking something ugly and making it beautiful. Think of it as another form of art.
Bloomberg article that adds to today’s topic.
“One definition of rich is getting into the top 1%. If that’s your goal, it’s becoming harder to reach.
The income needed to exit the bottom 99% of U.S. taxpayers hit $515,371 in 2017, according to Internal Revenue Service data released this week. That’s up 7.2% from a year earlier, even after adjusting for inflation.
Since 2011, when Occupy Wall Street protesters rallied under the slogan “We are the 99%,” the income threshold for the top 1% is up an inflation-adjusted 33%. That outpaces all other groups except for those that are even wealthier.
To join the top 0.1%, you would have needed to earn $2.4 million in 2017, an increase of 38% since 2011. The top 0.01% threshold has jumped 46%.
Meanwhile, the top 0.001% — an elite group of 1,433 taxpayers — earned at least $63.4 million each in 2017, up 51% since the Occupy protests.
The median taxpayer, at the 50th percentile, has seen income rise 20% since 2011.”
https://apple.news/AkK1o4vdjTteIJpQX9CcHIg
Left,
On “You don’t make the poor richer by making the rich poorer.”
Churchill never said it. Nor is it likely true.
Lib re 1995, it’s all about housing costs. 20 years ago I lived on 50k, my rent in downtown JC was $1500 for a big renovated 2 bedroom. The rent today for the same apartment is nearly 3x, over 4k per month. Housing in NJ starts at 500k and comes with a 10k property tax bill, 15k if you live in Essex county. Excessive tolls, fees, insurance, etc permeate NJ a lot of it driven by government graft and waste. Rents run around 3k a month now for a decent apartment in a good town. The salary to support this kind of housing cost is 120k. Older folks paid a lot less for their homes and therefore have it a bit easier but this is the reason NJ is loosing young folks in droves.
I’m cheap and willing to admit it we try very hard to keep expenses to one salary and bank the other. Truth be told if you want to eat at fine restaurants a few times a week and go on fancy vacations you’ll need to earn a good buck. A nice ski vacation for a week for a family of four runs 2k for coach airfare with bags, 3k for a decent hotel close to the mountain, $1500 for lift tickets, 2k for food and drink, ski lessons for the kids is another 2k, a rental car is another $500. Look a 1 week vacation is 10k for a family of 4 and that’s not for Aspen. So pumps you don’t live the high life on 200k, you are out of touch. My dad had friends who’s annual wine bill would run into the 6 figures. The rich can pretty easily spend 500k or more in a year, my folks used to do it without a mortgage pretty easily. A country club membership easily has dues of 25k, a real top shelf 5 star vacation for a week 25k easily, top of the line S-class or range rover runs you almost 2k per month. You’d be surprised how easily you can spend money even without buying too many luxury goods. 3 or 4 really nice vacations, eating out every meal,3 nice cars, 3 homes(all owned, North Jersey, Shore, and FL) just maintenance and property taxes, 2 boats a 45ft Viking and a 23ft center console(no debt just operating costs), etc. That’s a rich person’s lifestyle, the upper part of the 1% seemingly live this way. Once you get into the .1% you start associating with the truly rich and that is like accelerant being thrown on the fire that is your spending.
Pumps you don’t get it the economy built around this spending, the guy with 100m or 200m or 500m has a yacht, sometimes 2, a jet, 2 or 3 homes and no one in their family has been anywhere near a public school. The problem is going from 200m to 700m doesn’t seem to change the spending pattern much. Until you get to the first 100m spending increase along with cashflow above that it doesn’t increase as fast this is just anecdotal but what I’ve seen. The problem I see is that the class warfare driven taxes are very effective at hitting the merely very wealthy and the 100m dollar crowd is taxed very lightly due to their ability avoid taxes/influence policy, the people with net worth of 5-30m still pay very high taxes and a lot of their income is earned.