From Reuters:
U.S. existing home sales drop more than expected in September
U.S. home sales fell more than expected in September as the market continues to struggle with a dearth of properties for sale, especially for cheaper homes.
The National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday that existing home sales fell 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million units last month, reversing two straight months of gains. August’s sales pace was upwardly revised to 5.50 million units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast existing home sales declining 0.7% to 5.45 million units.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year, which has bolstered the housing market by lowering mortgage rates. Investors expect another interest rate cut when policymakers meet next week.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped more than 125 basis points since last November’s peak to an average of 3.69%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
But home sales have seesawed for much of this year as a chronic lack of properties on the market has inflated prices, keeping them unaffordable for many would-be homeowners. Land and labor shortages have also crimped supply.
There were 1.83 million homes in the market last month, a decline of 2.7% compared to a year ago. It was the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year inventory declines.
…
Existing home sales rose 3.9% from one year ago, the NAR said. Sales fell across the nation’s four regions last month. They dropped 3.1% in the Midwest and 2.8% in the Northeast. They declined 2.1% in the South and edged 0.9% lower in the West.
first
Un-inverted yield curve? Where is the GOOD news? Odds for recession now lower. Only 375 more days until the election folks!
TSLA turns a profit?
Buy buy buy!
USMCA effectively torpedoed in the House until 2020. My guess is Nancy Pelosi is doing her best to try to wreck the economy in the run up to the election.
The economy is for the rich. The rest of you are serfs.
Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal.
It’s something that’s top of mind right now, as the curve has uninverted in recent weeks.
But Campbell argues his model isn’t broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.
He says that everyone should heed the indicator’s latest warning as there are other signs that a downturn is coming.
Nothing to see here….
A new report from the Centers for Disease Control shows that a small decrease in life expectancy, from 78.7 to 78.6 years, is part of a continuing trend. Even as we make progress treating cancer, heart disease, and stroke—three of the biggest killers—we’re losing ground on other fronts and have been since 2014. That makes this continuous decline unlike anything we’ve seen since World War I and the Spanish influenza, which both happened between 1915 and 1918.
There is no reason to suggest he is wrong….. or course there is no proof right now that he is right…..
ExEssex says:
October 24, 2019 at 9:40 am
Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal.
It’s something that’s top of mind right now, as the curve has uninverted in recent weeks.
But Campbell argues his model isn’t broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.
He says that everyone should heed the indicator’s latest warning as there are other signs that a downturn is coming.
10:35 I thought I’d represent the contrarian view for once.
Nothing to see here….
A new report from the Centers for Disease Control shows that a small decrease in life expectancy, from 78.7 to 78.6 years, is part of a continuing trend. Even as we make progress treating cancer, heart disease, and stroke—three of the biggest killers—we’re losing ground on other fronts and have been since 2014. That makes this continuous decline unlike anything we’ve seen since World War I and the Spanish influenza, which both happened between 1915 and 1918.
My guess is, the opiod crisis numbers are peeking through
…I guess Essex considers himself a serf..obviously low on self-esteem.
I don’t consider myself a serf. Even taught my kids that they should be above the rest. So far, that’s working out on the oldest, who just turned 32, is a 1%er.
Second son is next in line, but he has to complete his residency and fellowship first.
Daughter is doing fine in Nashville, moving up the ladder year by year.
Essex, pull yourself up, dude. Don’t feel bad for yourself.
Here are the life expectancy numbers for the US since 2000 from https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
2000 76.812
2001 76.962
2002 77.124
2003 77.299
2004 77.486
2005 77.685
2006 77.892
2007 78.101
2008 78.303
2009 78.49
2010 78.652
2011 78.777
2012 78.862
2013 78.909
2014 78.922
2015 78.91
2016 78.885
2017 78.861
2018 78.851
2019 78.862
I wouldn’t be describing that as a continuous decline. More of a plateau.
TSLA – Still losing 4.19 for the year and they sold off the self driving unit (I think). Haven’t read the 10-Q. Not worth my time.
Son played in a tournament in Astor, down by Wilmington last weekend. Stopped into a Wawa at the border at 11pm to get him a sandwich post a late game since he had an early one the next day (4 full games in 24 hours actually). Remember how we were looking up where the Pennsyltuckyan’s were getting their gas once NJ raised their gas tax? Just over the boarder in Delaware. If anyone wants to look for proof, I’m sure it’s there. Couldn’t get to a pump on an island of over 20 pumps at 11:30 pm on a Saturday night in Nowhere Delaware. Also spotted two Teslas at the electric pumps. Both drivers were reading books as they waited their hour to fill up their $70,000 tax-assisted cars. Morons. Oh yeah, and it still cost $12.
Interesting.
https://delawarebusinessnow.com/2018/09/delaware-gains-gas-tax-revenue-as-drivers-fuel-up-before-traveling-to-new-jersey/
I made it a priority to fill up in Delaware coming back from Virginia this summer
Lib I wonder what the lost sales tax number is from drivers who stop to fill up and buy a pack of cigs, soda coffee, all that and a bag of chips? We could probably assume a slight loss in scratch offs as well.
I don’t drive half as much work from home allot, gas tax collected me and is half. That is the bigger trend…
Ouch esx thought this was a safe space. The truth is hate speech to him.
Well shit, weren’t we talking about the gas tax backfiring a few months back?
I thought someone said I was crazy for proposing that we lost sales to other states.
Price elasticity of demand, anyone?
We’ll fix it, I bought a big ass gas guzzling SUV yesterday.
2:12 like any real hillbilly, I’m takin’ a break.
In academia it’s known as a ___________?
sabbatical? Not seeing the joke here SX.
Hello. And Bye.
3:17 I guess I was pettifogging.
Oh. Wow. The first elected bi Congress person is being investigated for inappropriate relations with a staffer. Who would have thought she might have boundary issues.
3:29 Throupling . In Simi .
That’s because bisexuals are all the tool of the Devil! We know. And every time a straight white politician grabs women by their puzzies? Well that’s god’s gift to men. Like controlling womens reproductive rights. Every egg is sacred. We know. Sorry Jesus.
Amazon missed on earnings. Down nearly 10% in after hours now and it was already 10% off it’s high.
No recession to see here. Move along.
Last one,
Hope this one is not true.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/92d7c10b-2be1-3e07-9568-c9ce09724314/a-nasty-japan-style-market.html
“An alarming spread of street protests and civil unrest across the world in recent weeks looms large on the radar of financial markets, with investors wary the resulting pressures on stretched government finances will be one of many consequences.
Money managers and risk analysts seeking a common thread between often unconnected sources of popular anger – in Hong Kong, Beirut, Cairo, Santiago and beyond – reckon the unrest is particularly worrying following years of modest global economic growth and relatively low joblessness.
If, as many fear, the world is slipping back into its first recession in more than a decade, then the root causes of restive streets will only deepen and force embattled governments to loosen purse strings further to fund better employment, education, healthcare and other services to placate them.”
https://apple.news/A44xn7FoHTzGfGtM0-A8bvQ
Think about the millennial demographic block and its impact on the stock market. Just dumping money fearlessly and without emotion into their 401k. How can the market have a major drop if they ignore the noise and just blindly buy into the overall market?
This isn’t your grandpa’s financial market.
But those got damn street protests scare the hell out of me. That can destroy everything if this anger from income inequality spreads like wildfire. This is what always scared the hell out of me. Actions have consequences. Have to throw crumbs.
Even if you are paying a 60% rate to support the crumbs, who cares when you are making 10 million in a given year.
It’s all about the big picture, not what is fair. You want to enjoy that money, so throw some crumbs so that you can enjoy eating the pie in peace. Away from the stress of an angry populace.
Lib,
I will withhold judgement on Katie Hill until I see photo evidence..no, video evidence. If her face looks like a glazed donut then guilty!
She’s finished. Within a few years all of the 2018 radical anti trumpers can go back to working poles, pouring drinks or whatever.
“Barclays told clients it’s “still early” to buy the dip on Amazon, as the e-commerce giant’s period of heavy investment could hurt financials further before things get better.
Shares of Jeff Bezos-led Amazon plunged as much as 9% about reporting third-quarters earning that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Almost every other Wall Street analyst recommended buying the dip.”