Nobody wants to sell?

From the Real Deal

Home prices accelerate nationally as owners stay longer

The pace of rising home prices quickened in September and existing home sales ticked up 1.9 percent.

Average home prices in cities across the nation rose 3.2 percent compared with the same period in the previous year, the Wall Street Journal reported. The year-over-year rise in August had been 3.1 percent.

The gains mark a two-month departure from a long period of slowinggrowth in home prices.

The gains were more moderate — just 2.1 percent — in the large urban areas tracked by the composite S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

A separate report released last week by the Federal Housing Finance Agency echoed those findings, while the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales increased by 1.9 percent in October.

Homeowners are choosing to stay in their homes longer, in part because of a dearth of affordable options and tax abatements for older homeowners, according to a Redfin study, the Washington Post reported. Owners in homes where walkable amenities are available are also less likely to move, and houses with higher walkability scores sell faster, the study found.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

21 Responses to Nobody wants to sell?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Zillow and Trulia have the price of my house 70K over what I paid for it and that doesn’t include the upgrades. I know 30 year thinks I’m living in my own fantasy but like my previous houses, this one will sell within hours when/if I choose to make a move and probably above the list price.

  3. Juice Box says:

    In my hood several homes sold recently according to the realtor who sent me a card this week listing recent sales with DOM and selling prices are up. There are no homes for sale right now either.

    Just got my tax card this year only $5 k more in assessment thankfully. Monmouth county does not mess around, tax card by Thanksgiving and appeal deadline is January 15th just about 50 days from when the card arrives.

  4. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    It’s been 4 years but Zillow doesn’t know that I added a bedroom. I guess they just pull it from the sale data. Zillow Estimate is currently $90k more than I paid.

  5. Ok snowflake says:

    Houses sell pretty quickly in my area too.

  6. Ok snowflake says:

    Off topic but if you need to ship packages I recommend pirateship dot com.

    No monthly or signup fees and you get commercial discount rates of 15 to 40% off the post office price.

    For international packages up to 4 pounds you can ask through chat for their simple export rate. They set it up pretty quickly and the savings are big.

    I have no affiliation. I’m just cheap and thought I’d pass on a money saving tip.

  7. D-FENS says:

    I assumed it was from the tax records. You can take ownership of it through the website or app and edit it.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    December 2, 2019 at 11:43 am
    It’s been 4 years but Zillow doesn’t know that I added a bedroom. I guess they just pull it from the sale data. Zillow Estimate is currently $90k more than I paid.

  8. Monday 180Degrees says:

    Then you got this post, it will be way faster if we kill off Medicare and boomers go poof be gone.

  9. Libturd says:

    My home is $255K above my 2011 price. I didn’t add anything but a deck and a sink.

    My Multi in the PRM is $84K above my 2004 price with over $1ooK in improvements made.

    This is an excellent example of how important it is to buy real estate at the right time. Those buying today or recently are screwed.

  10. Nomad says:

    So Lib,

    You are pretty astute, when will the housing market turn? I remember watching in 2012 thinking there were some good values in NJ. Hindsight…

    On another note, apparently, according to Safe Home, NJ is the smartest state.

  11. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Another example of those evil energy companies figuring out how to use plastic waste.

    Private industry is figuring out better options than the whiny academia ever will conjure up.

  12. ExEssex says:

    Lib has always struck me as the savviest of NJ RE investors.
    Mazel Tov!

  13. Libturd, all snowing says:


    Thanks for the kind words. I’ve been busy as heck today so sorry for the late response. Predicting a housing turn is nearly impossible, but it doesn’t hurt to provide an educated first.

    There are lots of variables at play here. The state of the economy. Impossibly low mortgage rates. A recent hipster baby boom caused by the economic improvement since the Great Recession. The rent vs. owning equation. Changes in the tax laws which make property taxes and mortgage interest harder to deduct. The recent boom in residential construction and the desire to live in walkable communities (apartment) versus a traditional single-family home. Finally, the strongest factor, IMHO, is the future glut of boomer housing turning over.

    Real estate traditionally returns 4% and the stock market around 8%. Of course, you live in your home and this is where much of the value is obtained. Housing also turns like an aircraft carrier. It’s slow! In the past three decades, there have been two bottoms three tops. A bottom is definitely next. The question is, how long is going to take to get there. I definitely feel anytime after around 2013 has been the wrong time to buy. I think gains from here will be minimal and will max around the same number as inflation. On the downside, I’m guessing it will be nuanced as the slow gains from here will not leave housing susceptible to a subprime-debacle-type drop. Probably 20% to 30%, which will be equal to about ten year’s worth of gain at my aforementioned predicted pace of growth. If I was to guess on timing? Somewhere in the coming 8 years. The timeline could be drastically shortened if the Trump economy proves to be the farce that I think it is. Then again, if reelected, I would expect the Orange one to issue another trillion in debt to be given to corporations to buy back shares to keep the economy going.

    Sorry to be so vague, but predicting a change in housing values is really tough. On the bright side, it moves so slowly that you can take your time making a decision and won’t lose much value.

  14. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (fcuk me Edition):

    Thank you for accessing our survey. Qualtrics, an independent market research firm, would like your thoughts and opinions on market trends that impact Registered Investment Advisors. Please answer the questions that follow.

    With what gender do you most closely identify?

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Then again, if reelected, I would expect the Orange one to issue another trillion in debt to be given to corporations to buy back shares to keep the economy going.

    As opposed to extorting a trillion dollars from the production class disguised as a stimulus package only to be handed to democrat cronies and leeches? At least we make money during those so-called buy backs. Then again, jobs are plentiful and opportunities abound so it’s a win-win all around.

  16. Juice Box says:

    Chi – GenderBread Person

  17. Libturd says:

    I’ve said this before Gary. Trump is mostly a farce. His job growth is no better than Obama’s was. His manufacturing story is just plain not true. He makes up bullsh1t. You know that phone call he supposedly received from China that got the market rocking about three weeks ago? He simply made it up. There was no call. We are no closer today to an economic deal with China than Obama was to claiming that Iran was using Uranium for peaceful purposes. I really, really, really worry about our economy when the truth is revealed. This won’t be the first time the American people have been lied too, nor the last. And I’m not arguing that Obama was much better. Was he a party hack and beholden to the lobbyists? Yes. Did he lie like there was no tomorrow. Absolutely not.

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good write up.

    Remember how housing works. First is location, location, location. Second, historically, the market always ends up with higher highs and higher lows over time. That’s why you play the real estate market long term, and leave the short term for the suckers and risk takers. Third, understand demographics. Know which spending stage of their life cycle each generational demographic group is in, and understand how large each group is as you can weigh their impact in the long term. Fourth, weigh the impact of interest rates and understand if banks are lending or pulling back capital.

    I agree that there should be a bust within 8 years based on historical cycle trends. Whether it will happen is tough to say.

    Based on the analysis in the above paragraph, I don’t see rates going up ever again. I see a demographic group getting hungry for housing (millennials), but prudent in their moves. It will change, they will stop being so prudent as the competition for housing intensifies, and millennials realize time is not on their side and they don’t have forever to save up for the perfect house. So the path for the next big demographic group to create a new higher high and higher low is there. Just need this economy to keep growing and providing jobs for anyone that wants it(labor market has been like this for 2 years already). The labor market hasn’t overheated with out of control wage inflation. So I think we are in really good shape when you look at these factors. Of course, everything could change overnight.

    “Sorry to be so vague, but predicting a change in housing values is really tough. On the bright side, it moves so slowly that you can take your time making a decision and won’t lose much value.”

  19. ExEssex says:

    2:19 Think I’ll have a smooth Colt 45 Malt Liquor….

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “There are approximately 618,000 “millennial millionaires” — those with a net worth of over $1 million — in the United States, according to a 2019 report from Coldwell Banker Global Luxury and WealthEngine, which defines millennials as those born between 1982 and 1996, or ages 23 to 37 in 2019.

    The population of wealthy young people is growing, the report finds. And they’re getting richer: “By 2030, millennials will hold five times as much wealth as they have today, and are expected to inherit over $68 trillion from their predecessors in the Great Transfer of Wealth.””

Comments are closed.