Delinquencies at 20 year low

From CoreLogic:

The States Leading in Nationwide Delinquency Rate Drops

The overall delinquency rate was 3.8% nationwide in September, down from 4.4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of September in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. Five states, CoreLogic notes, reported even larger decreases in their delinquency rates.

Year-over-year, the states that logged the largest decreases included: Mississippi (-1.1 percentage points), North Carolina (-1.1 percentage points), Louisiana (-1.0 percentage points), New Jersey (-1.0 percentage points) and South Carolina (-1.0 percentage points). CoreLogic notes that the decreased activity in the Carolinas may be due in part to a recovery from the elevated levels in 2018 in the wake of Hurricane Florence.

While overall delinquency fell, serious delinquency rates have begun to flatten out at low levels. The serious delinquency rate, defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure, was 1.3% in September 2019, down from 1.5% in September 2018. Likewise, the share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due—considered early-stage delinquencies—was 1.9% in September 2019, down from 2.2% in September 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in September 2019, down from 0.7% in September 2018.

Some of the highest delinquency rates were in metro areas including New York and Miami, though Miami still experienced annual declines. The New York metro had the highest rate at 5.1%, while Miami, with the second-highest rate at 5%, saw a sharp decrease in the overall delinquency rate, falling from 6.1% in September 2018.

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67 Responses to Delinquencies at 20 year low

  1. dentss says:

    First …..

  2. D-FENS says:

    Hey Grim…Haven’t seen you post an article in a while…hope everything is ok with you and your family.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    The overall delinquency rate was 3.8% nationwide in September, down from 4.4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of September in more than 20 years…

    The economy is monstrously strong, people are working, the train is crowded, the market is at record highs, phase one of the China deal is done, USMCA is done, a new branch of the military has been founded and we’re probably entering another 5 years of expanded growth. These are epic times… indisputable actually. Personally, I’ve made more money in the last 2 years than the previous 10 years. Identify the naysayers and I’ll show you a bunch of failures.

  4. homeboken says:

    Eddie – Weird phenomonon right? The loudest detractors of the economic strength are generally the same people that are vigorous supporters of entitlement programs.

    During a boom or a recession, I haven’t yet figured out a way to prosper while demanding others do my work for me.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    The loudest detractors of the economic strength are generally the same people that are vigorous supporters of entitlement programs.

    I yield to the mainstream media for all the proof you need in regards to their agenda. One side believes things are solemn while the other is basking in the sunshine of our ecumenical vitality.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How on point was I? Simply an amazing call…best economic run of our lifetime. I was calling for this while the experts have been calling for a recession every year since 2012.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 20, 2019 at 8:29 am
    The overall delinquency rate was 3.8% nationwide in September, down from 4.4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of September in more than 20 years…

    The economy is monstrously strong, people are working, the train is crowded, the market is at record highs, phase one of the China deal is done, USMCA is done, a new branch of the military has been founded and we’re probably entering another 5 years of expanded growth. These are epic times… indisputable actually. Personally, I’ve made more money in the last 2 years than the previous 10 years. Identify the naysayers and I’ll show you a bunch of failures.

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Get into north jersey real estate while you can… seeing major changes everywhere.
    Writing is on the wall..

    “Jersey City’s Ambitious SciTech Scity Nabs $10 Million Donation”

  8. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Economy must be booming. Went to NYC a few days ago for a Jazz concert. Was thinking about taking my kids to the top of the Emprie State Building. $64 a person! That’s more than a friggin meal for Peter Luger’s.

  9. Juice Box says:

    re: “Economy must be booming”

    Congestion pricing is everywhere. Tickers to Harry Potter on Broadway normally $69 dollar for Orchestra seats are selling list $225 for the next two weeks. Scalpers (do they still call re-sellers that?) charging way way more.

  10. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Speaking of congestion, 233k more drivers in nj roads within three years now that illegals can drive in nj with the dnc counterfeit license.

    Not considered a “government documents” but authorize one to the privilege of driving. The radical lefts relationship with reality continues to diminish.

  11. 3b says:

    The economy is doing well all fueled by artificially low interest rates and over inflated assets. The young people get screwed again. At some point it all collapses.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Driving through downtown Passaic yesterday and it’s insane. Almost every factory that was vacant is being renovated. Any empty lot is being built on. The writing is on the wall folks. Get in now!

    Also, they are going to be renovating main ave area of Passaic. The old prosperous main ave is going to come alive again based on the plans being discussed. So happy with the economy. Just a beautiful thing to get the chance to live through it and prosper off it. Thank you America!!

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s capitalism, it’s always going to bust. I tell you what though, this time the fed has more control of the economy than they ever have.

    Inflation will eventually come with all this debt, but hell, if we grow the economy to absurd levels, f’k the debt. It will be nothing.

    3b says:
    December 20, 2019 at 10:00 am
    The economy is doing well all fueled by artificially low interest rates and over inflated assets. The young people get screwed again. At some point it all collapses.

  14. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    in 2004, I was looking for a commercial property for a friend who was running a Hot Rodding business. I couldn’t find a single one in 2 counties. 3 years later, there were plenty to pick from.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    At some point it all collapses.

    In a few billion years, definitely. For now, I’ll gorge on the riches and put my empathy to the side.

  16. 3b says:

    Fast we shall see.

  17. D-FENS says:

    The great recession of 2019 is hereby cancelled until further notice.

  18. Juice Box says:

    Look based upon what happened in housing the government will just print money to deal with any crisis. When the Orange one took office there was $20 trillion in debt on the books on Inauguration Day and now $23 trillion today.

    Nobody cares…What could possibly go wrong anyway?

    No go out an buy a Christmas ham before the Chinese steal all our pork! And don’t forget to run up some 15% interest on your Christmas cards this season. I may not get a bonus if fu*ck*ers don’t borrow and spend more!

  19. Juice Box says:

    I want my swimming pool not the Jelly of the month club dammit, go out and spend spend spend….!

  20. Juice Box says:

    The average American will spend $700 on holiday gifts and goodies this year, totaling more than $465 billion according to the NRF.

    Only $700? We aren’t average, we are GREAT AMERICANS. Tell everyone to spend double this year. It’s time to celebrate and spurge already…No need to be frugal there will be bailouts for everyone right?

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo. The sun will always rise again. If we survived two world wars destroying the economic landscape, a great depression, and a great recession (that was supposed to end it all…I believed that garbage at the time and it cost me over a million dollars in lost investments from a 30,000 original investment). They will never ever get in my head again. I don’t care what those negative nannies say, they fail to realize life finds a way every single time.

    Juice Box says:
    December 20, 2019 at 11:15 am
    Look based upon what happened in housing the government will just print money to deal with any crisis. When the Orange one took office there was $20 trillion in debt on the books on Inauguration Day and now $23 trillion today.

  22. Juice Box says:

    728 Billion spending bill signed today, good way to wrap up the year…..

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    These people are just like social!sts, they just don’t get it.

    They will keep trying over and over again, never learning from their mistakes. What’s amazing, the idea of what makes a good school flies right over their head. They think dropping poor students in successful schools is the magic pill. They don’t get it..

    The poor schools are filled with teachers going all out for these kids. Only problem, kids fail to meet them half way. You have to have the ambition and work ethic to learn and be successful in school. That is what matters, not whether the school is for rich kids or poor kids. You need to do things like hw and actually learn to apply yourself in the classroom. If you don’t do these things, you will be unsuccessful no matter where you go to school.

    “We are pleased that Princeton has come to the table and reached an agreement with housing and civil rights advocates that will provide new opportunities for working families and people with disabilities in Central Jersey to live close to good schools and jobs,” said Kevin Walsh, executive director of Fair Share Housing Center, an advocacy group that announced the deal Thursday.

    “This agreement represents an important step forward in tackling racial segregation, which divides our communities and locks families of color out of safe neighborhoods, good schools and job opportunities.”

  24. Fast Eddie says:


    Vote for Bernie or Liz, I’m sure they’ll have a sound plan in place to reduce the debt inflicted by Oblama.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Bernie would be great theater but Bloomberg is my pick…

  26. Friday Chilling says:

    Because the lack of new posting, over the last week I took a look at the post around mid/late 2008 – 2009 in the archives.

    Boy, those 10 yrs old post, contrasted with your posts above – is very easy to see top (coke head bender) / bottom (slashing wrist, prep shotgun Cobain ) of the times.

    We are at the top boys. Take a deep breath and will start screaming any second.

  27. D-FENS says:

    He’ll sign it oh yeah…he got his border wall money tucked in there with no restrictions on the type of construction either.

    Democratic Cave to Trump on Border Wall Had an Ulterior Motive

    Democrats gave Trump major concessions and leverage in the year-end funding bill so Representative Henry Cuellar could get federal funding for a riverwalk in his district.

    Juice Box says:
    December 20, 2019 at 11:43 am
    728 Billion spending bill signed today, good way to wrap up the year…..

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Say what? Everyone was just complaining that recession is imminent a few months ago because of the yield curve. How that work out? What’s that yield curve saying now?

    Roaring 20’s 2.0…

    “We are at the top boys. Take a deep breath and will start screaming any second.”

  29. Libturd says:

    Everyone party like it’s 1929!

  30. 3b says:

    Bloomberg won’t get the nomination.

  31. 3b says:

    I had to add another cart on Amazon!

  32. Libturd (breaking the echo chamber) says:

    While newbie middle-class investors seeking easy riches absolutely fueled the 1929 stock market boom and bust, plenty of very sophisticated investors also missed the coming crash. And even those who were savvy enough to foretell a market slide couldn’t have imagined the carnage to come.

    “No big decline has ever been fully predicted,” says Richardson. “If there was any reasonable prediction that home prices would collapse in 2008, then people would have stopped buying homes. If any reasonable person had foreseen anything like the 90-percent collapse in equity prices from 1929 to 1934, the market would have not gone up. There’s lots of really smart people who bet wrong on the market all the time.”

  33. JCer says:

    Juice Bloomberg is probably the best Dem candidate and in a general election could probably beat Trump. Given that the Dems will absolutely not nominate him…..

  34. Libturd says:

    If you follow the Republican narrative, that would be the case JCER.

    Realistically, I am beginning to believe that a flaming turd would beat Trump, regardless of what come’s out of Trump’s mouth.

    As for the economy, I am STILL not convinced it’s all not a farce. Only time will tell what’s behind the green curtain. About a week ago, I did change my stance to 75 risk/25 defensive from 50/50. I did some some deep thinking and realized that Trump will risk the entire system to keep the facade going at the expense of the future. I mean, who else builds up 3 trillion more debt when the economy is the greatest ever? Who lowers interest rates when the economy is the greatest ever? Who reduces environmental protections when the economy is the greatest ever?

  35. 3b says:

    Richardson’s comments are foolish so all these sub prime no money down borrowers had they any idea the bubble would burst would not have bought? What a bunch of crap!

  36. Libturd says:

    Do you think they knew they would be able to stay in their unpaid for homes for decades after the crash? I certainly didn’t think that would have been the case!

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Come on, this is not being fair. The financial system has changed. Low rates are the norm, not the exception for the time being.

    They had to work magic to prevent the giant depression. They did, and it’s taking a toll on long term rates because of all the capital put into the system. High rates would destroy the economy after flooding the economy with so much capital.

    “Who lowers interest rates when the economy is the greatest ever? Who reduces environmental protections when the economy is the greatest ever?”

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You want people to invest their money right now, not hide their money in banks collecting 8% a year with no risk.

    So why should there be high rates right now encouraging the ultra wealthy to do exactly what we don’t want them to do…hide their money because they are guaranteed high returns. Would absolutely destroy the economy based on current fundamentals.

  39. Libturd says:

    I will respond to you once and only once. I almost never read your posts since I choose not to converse with red-bellied liars who can’t get the clue that they have almost single-handedly ruined this blog.

    The reason you raise the rates is to slow down an overheated/overvalued market. How is it overvalued compared to historical standards? Because for the first time ever, earnings are growing without increases in sales. How can this be? Well to keep the farce going, Trump has decided to give a gift of lower corporate taxation which has been used by most companies, not to create jobs, but to buy back their own shares. Which wouldn’t be such a bad thing if everyone benefited from it. But alas, the rich get richer. But fear not, as the crash this time will be much larger than it need to be and the FED will not have any room to lower rates to encourage investment when everyone is running for the doors.

    And when it comes crashing down, I don’t want any of you hoodlums to utter the words, “How did we know this was going to happen?”

    Keep on partying. After all, a trade deal has been inked in invisible dye. Much like the Trump income tax forms that are most likely no longer being audited.

  40. JCer says:

    Lib, ask yourself this question who will the Dems nominate….Biden. This little impeachment exercise will sink him, if they have the trial in the Senate Hunter will be forced to testify and in any even controlling the trial the Republicans will get plenty of shots on Biden that the American voter will see. Biden is a weak candidate between the gaffes, advanced age, and the possibility of malfeasance as the VP. They have flawed candidates, Bernie or Warren will feel the brunt of corporate american and wall street against them(truth be told they are the reason we are seeing Bloomberg). We live in a part of the world that hates Trump and he was defeated easily here the first time, that doesn’t change. in America on the other hand it seems like he has some support and frankly the impeachment is helping him there. A good candidate beats trump, a good candidate in 2016 beats Trump. The Dems had a bad candidate then and probably will again, I actually think Bernie could have won in 16 but given what transpired he is lacking the excitement to get in done this go around. If the economy is good voters won’t turn out and Trump wins the flyover without question.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I ruined the blog by being correct on a call that people couldn’t accept. This blog was filled with Debbie downers. They will be back when the economy crashes again. Clot was so wrong, it’s not even funny. But people like him will come out of the cracks when it all falls apart again. Just not happening anytime soon.

    Yes, you raise rates to cool off investors appetite for creating bubbles. The fed just did that. It clearly was the wrong approach and they have adjusted. Again, you have to realize they pumped the economy full of capital, but they got no inflation. So why the hell would you start raising rates without inflation? They did it to satisfy the naysayers who were obsessed with raising rates to give the fed ammo for the coming recession that was never coming.

  42. Libturd says:


    I am usually pretty good at putting my biases aside. I am also the first person willing to admit when I am wrong. I used to think having the correct candidate with the right appeal would matter. But I had a bit of an epiphany recently. I thought long and hard about how Trump won in 2016. It had less to do with Trump and everything to do with the Dems lack of unity. The Republican’s found just enough unity behind PT Barnum to beat a mainly disinterested blue team. Heck, the VP wasn’t even running. And there was a huge split between the corporate loving Dems and the rich are too rich Dems. Because of this, the polls were all wrong as many Dems stayed home on election day.

    This time around, the Dems could nominate Putin and it wouldn’t matter. For every single Dem voter is going to vote this time around. Which is also why I do not trust the current polls. Because this time around, a lot of Republicans are questioning Trump’s ways. But no one is going to question whoever is nominated on the other side.

    Time will tell as always. But a lot of likely voters last time didn’t vote. I swear, they will be out in droves this year because there is little more unifying than a president that thinks trolling (aided by evidence so shallow that a fish couldn’t swim in it) is appropriate. Everyone can see right through it. Plus, we have the press on our side because of this.

    Costa Rica is probably three years away for me. I hardly have a dog in this race. Time will tell.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I voted for Hillary in 2016. This time I’ll be sure to vote for trump. Include this in your a analysis. Ton of people are disgusted by what the Democratic Party has become.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They have no identity. They are catering to extreme positions instead of the avg voter that just wants a job and more money in their pocket. I don’t even know what that party stands for right now. I do know what the trump party stands for…MAGA!

  45. Libturd, knows you can't spell nice without ICE says:

    The Great Pumpkin has joined the MAGA team.

    ‘Nuff said.

  46. Juice Box says:

    Oh meant to say thanks to Grim to opening up the blog again. I was about to drive down to the slums of twitter to get my fix but that is hit or miss these days and I don’t really want to OD…

  47. Juice Box says:

    Work noise….

    After a few rounds of “the Bobs” we are moving onto different mgmt consultants who specialize in rightsizing….They now want to run through another exercise next month…

    So next next month round three. Oh’s a problem of motivation….

    If I ever do get called down to HR it will be classic…..

  48. Juice Box says:

    Also meant to say we did manage to nearly shut down our offsite, place is desolate now 400 seats and now only 20 with nothing to do. It was 90 but they all quit place is cursed or something so I hear.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Give me one example, besides SALT, to show how trump has made your life worst off. If you ignored the news headlines, you can’t tell me your life has not been improving under his presidency.

    Libturd, knows you can’t spell nice without ICE says:
    December 20, 2019 at 5:50 pm
    The Great Pumpkin has joined the MAGA team.

    ‘Nuff said.

  50. ExEssex says:

    2020 simply might come down to
    The simple fact that Trump is incredibly
    Unlikeable. He’s a weirdo. His speeches are
    The extemporaneous ramblings of an imbecile.

  51. ExEssex says:

    Also another factor?

    grown for over a decade, that growth is increasingly concentrated in 1% of the nation’s counties.

    Just 31 counties, or the top 1% by share, made up 32.3% of U.S. gross domestic product in 2018, according to data released last week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that included nearly 20 years of county-level GDP data. That’s despite these counties only having 26.1% of employed Americans and 21.9% of the population last year. Their combined GDP share is also up from a recession low of 30.1% in 2009.

    The nation’s economy is becoming increasingly concentrated in large cities and by the coasts — and less so in rural counties — spurring the question of whether rural areas will be increasingly left behind. The growing concentration of the country’s economic activity could affect a variety of things from infrastructure spending to labor mobility, but it’s unclear how rural areas will fare as their share of economic output continues to dwindle.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Identity politics, now a driving force in the Democratic Party, celebrates the racial and ethnic identities of designated victim groups while consigning whites—especially heterosexual white men—to scapegoat status. But its advocates should be careful what they wish for. If “whiteness” is a legitimate topic of academic and political discourse, some individuals are going to embrace “white identity” proudly.”

  53. ExEssex says:

    8:21 newsmax taking points again?
    Your perfect for the movement.
    Gullible and prone to “victim-speak” yourself.
    Remember the everyone hates teachers tome.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Not trying to get under your skin, just trying to understand you.

    If you ignore the persona and character of our president, and instead focus on bottom line policy, what is there to hate so much? What policy did he put in place that hurts America? I can’t see any.

    Even his wall. He’s called a racist for that wall, but guess who benefits the most from cutting off illegal immigration with that wall? Yes, minorities already living in America. Who gets hurt the most by that wall? American business owners who lose access to illegal cheap labor.

    Sometimes the guy needs to stfu and let his policies do the talking for him.

    Btw, with my victim speak. I hope you can see the change and growth in me during my 30’s. I came into this blog in my early 30’s as a full blown believer in social!ism and a focus on “fair” and “equality.”

    I have grown from that 20 something mindset. I don’t think or accept that life is fair. It’s brutal and about survival, not equality and fairness. Those virtues are highly admirable, but they are just not realistic when it comes to the game of survival.

    Trump gets this. China gets this. That’s why Trump was the first politician to take them on and stop letting them control/use us. You and lib think he is the problem? He was the damn solution. We need 4 more years. If you take away trump, you are giving China the advantage by putting in one of these left wing losers focused on fairness and equality. They are going to get us killed. We don’t need that mindset right now. Let’s deal with China first and then you can focus on your utopian visions of what life should be like.

    ExEssex says:
    December 20, 2019 at 8:28 pm
    8:21 newsmax taking points again?
    Your perfect for the movement.
    Gullible and prone to “victim-speak” yourself.
    Remember the everyone hates teachers tome.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’d argue it’s more about supply and demand. All the rich in our country and foreign buyers started speculating in high end real estate early in the decade. The entire real estate market was ignored except for high end real estate. Developers went into over drive building multi million properties to feed the demand. Well, now they realize they created a bubble, and high end prices aren’t going higher after such a crazy run up. Also, it’s not cool to show wealth with all these pro social!sts running around. So while the entire real estate market is suffering from immense lack of supply issue, the high end is flooded. Good job to the money boys on creating a bubble in maybe 5% of the real estate market while the other 95% suffers from severe supply issues.

    Luxury real estate will be fine in the long term. For now, it’s good buying opportunities as there is just too much supply. You will have to hold long term to realize the gains. Short term plays in real estate is on the rest of the market where there simply is not enough supply.

    “Like an inverted yield curve signaling little faith in future growth, the weak high-end real estate market suggests the wealthy are afraid the end is near when it comes to stock market highs and a healthy economy. (It’s worth noting they could be wrong.)”

  56. 3b says:

    People commenting on high end real estate being fine should spend a day in Manhattan and take a walk around . Start in lower Manhattan and make their way up to midtown and beyond. Simply not enough wealthy people in the world to absorb it all.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What I always said…private or public, same corruption. What a bunch of swindlers.

    “What Happens When a Health Plan Has No Limits? An Acupuncturist Earns $677 a Session.
    New Jersey’s health plan for school employees pays out-of-network providers virtually whatever they want. Dozens of acupuncturists and physical therapists earned more than $200,000 in 2018 from school staff alone. One brought in $1 million.”

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When will people realize we are in the midst of the greatest economic run of our lifetime. I hope they keep calling for recessions and behaving cautiously to help drag out this run for all its got.

    “Unless a once-in-a-decade reversal hits, investors are about to book once-in-a-decade returns.
    Virtually everything is winning in this remarkable year, and the world’s major asset classes are collectively on course for the strongest annual performance since 2009. Even in a go-slow week, the S&P 500 posted four record closes.
    “We call it a grand cru, which in wine terms means a very good vintage,” said Dirk Thiels, the Brussels-based head of investment management at KBC Asset Management NV.
    The scorecard tells the story: America’s equity benchmark has climbed 28%. A global stocks gauge is up 23%. A worldwide credit index rose 10%. Emerging-market sovereign dollar bonds added 12%. Even Treasuries and gold, those classic safe havens, advanced about 7% and 15%, respectively. Staying on the sidelines was about the only way to lose — the greenback has gone nowhere in 12 months.”

  59. leftwing says:

    Hey y’all….

    Happy Holidays!

    Chi, punched in to let you know I’m heading up to Lynah on the 25th for the Harvard game…LMK if you’ll be in the neighborhood.

    Stu, missed your son’s game that I thought I would hit, conflict. I will see you for sure in Feb at the Ice Vault, both teams will play there, I’ll reach out beforehand.

    Scrolling through the postings….a couple items, one macro, one anecdotal….

    Seems a lot of discourse on rates and inflation…here is one of the smartest people around on those matters. Ignore him at your own peril…it’s the 12/11 Halftime Report video… It’s all good, gets interesting around the 16-17 minute mark….

    Anecdotal…on the economy…I have a son graduating university this year…undergrad…very good but not tippy-top school, solid major, good grades but not phi beta kappa level…basically checks all the boxes at around the 75-80 percentile level except notably no real corporate internships…he has multiple job offers, breaks through six figures on the one he accepted which is in the Midwest, not even coasts…in his house there are five seniors, same amongst their peers, unless the person is hard core liberal arts or a narrow bandwidth like physiology…This economy is wide open. Let me repeat. WIDE. FCUKING. OPEN. Bet against it, and the Fed (see the video above) at your own risk. And remember guys, consider the source, I am short as much as I am long in the markets at any given time….

    See everyone in the New Year. Best to you and yours….

  60. Bystander says:

    Wow, so sad. This blog disappears for weeks and the Dumpy blow*job convention is the the first thing that gets posted. No mention of that little mass shooting in JC? I guess who cares anymore. Jerome Powell is the newest Arthur Burns. He caved to the political pressure. Can’t even keep a few rate increases for a year before he gives in to Wall Street? He will pump trillions into repo market to ensure evetyone gets their cheap liquidity. Dufus thinks we have some post war boom coming when it is economy based on cash stuffing with no risk due to Fed. Dumpy did not create this Fed bubble but he has simply put it on steroids with tax cuts . China deal is absolutely zero. There are no specifics. It was a political stunt to avoid additional tariffs..a jfake win. The jobs in this economy are fly-by-night small businesses which millenials think are cool. Pay them 40K with the tag Brewmaster or a sous-chef at that hip vegan place. Low interest credit is floating many bad ideas that will pull back hard when credit bubble pops. Oh, my neighbor sold finally, 7 months and he took 60K less than 2014 purchase price. Lost another 80K between improvements, realtor fees and paying two mortgages. My IB? I have zero expectation for raise or decent bonus. Investments for next year will only lead to hiring in low cost locations which create insane amount of work for me. Might finally open in Poland as India is absolute farce in terms of talent and delivery. Not a penny being dropped in gool ole USA. Recruiters have been contacting me but not one with decent paying 150k plus job. Let me know when the real economy is impacted dufus. Stock bubble is classic pump bc risk free intervention from Fed. Rich will get huge bonuses for year end. They will pump avergage dumb Americans to spend bc their 401K shows they have money. The rug will be pulled just like the one from Orange buffon’s head. He will not care at all if can float this until 2020 re-election. When he has four free years..well, you will see some unhinged scary narcisstic disorders reaching insanity levels and he won’t care if economy come off rails either. He will blame everyone else.

  61. Bystander says:

    Sure left..and I remember 20 years ago when a co worker, 25 year old dumb@ss, HS grad was offered 55k to join UUnet during dot com boom. That was sticks of VA too. I don’t mean that as a dig to your son. He is probably smart in STEM major but lots of people seem to think we are at start of something when Fed driven malinvestments are pushing to the end

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sorry always doing this, but obviously you don’t make this kind of call unless you are obsessed. I seriously nailed this so far out. Go back and look at those posts. Always said the labor and housing market would start getting their legs back 17/18. 2020 is when the real party gets going. What a time to be alive.

    “Hot Housing Data Powers Stocks To Fresh Records
    Dec. 21, 2019 1:48 PM ETACC, ADC, AMT…6 Comments

    The Christmas spirit is alive and well this year as US equity markets climbed to fresh record highs for the fourth straight week, powered by impressive housing data.
    The S&P 500 jumped another 1.7% on the week, bringing this year’s total return to roughly 30% and within striking distance of its best year since 1997.
    Despite a 10 basis point jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, the typically yield-sensitive real estate sector bounced back following a rough week, gaining roughly 1.5%, led by cell tower REITs.
    Housing data showed signs of continued reacceleration with better-than-expected Homebuilder Sentiment, Housing Starts and Building Permits data. Existing Home Sales, however, remain constrained by lack of supply.
    Homebuilders, along with the broader US housing industry, have been an unexpected source of stability and strength for an economy that seemed to be searching for direction for much of the year.”

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This blog is a special place. Some amazing calls have been over the life of the blog. This place is a gem.

  64. Bystander says:

    Its 10 PM. Do you know where your alpa-wife is?

    Ray Dalio : Buy gold

  65. Bystander says:

    alpha..but maybe I really meant alpaca wife

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