November Pending Sales

From CNBC:

US pending home sales rise in November

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose in November, driven by a surge in new contracts being signed in the country’s West, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday.

The NAR’s pending home sales index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 1.2% to a reading of 108.5. The previous month’s reading was revised upward.

Pending home contracts are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later.

Compared with one year ago, pending sales were up 7.4%.

Compared to the prior month, contracts increased 5.5% in November in the West. They also increased in the Midwest but were lower in the South and Northeast.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

128 Responses to November Pending Sales

  1. grim says:

    Unadjusted YOY – Up 5.6% nationally, 1.1% in the NE, 2.2% in the MW, 6.4% in the S, and 11.4% in the W. Sales activity still holding strong despite the shitty inventory.

  2. grim says:

    Liberals may hate Jordan Peterson, but, guy has a point. Marx was wrong. Religion isn’t the opiate of the masses, heroin is.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/opioid-deaths-rise-after-car-factory-closures-according-to-a-study-over-two-decades-2019-12-31

    The closing of a car factory can be an economic gut punch for the surrounding community, but new research suggests there could also be ramifications for those laid-off workers.

    Over nearly two decades, counties where automotive plants closed saw an increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths after the closures compared to counties where plants stayed open, a study published Monday in JAMA Internal Medicine found. The work was supported by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a nonprofit organization based in Princeton, N.J.

    The biggest increases in opioid overdose deaths happened among non-Hispanic white men between the ages of 18 and 65.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    I love Jordan Peterson. Logic and common sense are counter to the liberal cause. Of his 12 rules for life, this is the one liberals hate the most: “Set your house in perfect order before you criticize the world.” They hate it because it takes individual sacrifice and effort, the antithesis of their ideology.

  4. Nomad says:

    Good article Grim. Savvy mayors in towns with large auto plants or parts manufacturing are headed to Detroit to talk to corporate execs and learn how to better position their factories and workers for the electric vehicle era where less parts are needed and less people to make those parts and work on assembly lines. The electric Ford SUV hitting the market late next year may have mass adoption ramifications for the EV market and Ford is investing considerable amounts of money into the charging grid.

  5. grim says:

    Not surprising.

  6. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-price-growth-accelerated-in-october-on-the-heels-of-low-mortgage-rates-2019-12-31?mod=mw_latestnews

    The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index rose by 2.2% in October versus a year ago. On a monthly basis, this index increased 0.1% in October compared with September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

    At the national level, home prices were up on an annual basis by 3.3%, which represents an increase from September’s annual rate of home-price appreciation.

  7. ExEssex says:

    8:07 OK stupid.

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    Essex,

    Tell me what the current crop of democrats can offer that would make me pause and consider them? What programs, ideas, etc. will they implement that will benefit the country and individuals?

  9. ExEssex says:

    Gary a firm handshake won’t make up for the fact that the orange idiot’s current wife hates him and is having an affair with her head of security, the POTUS enriches himself and golf’s on the taxpayers’ dime, and is actually a drug addict. I’m thinking anyone including a potted palm would suffice.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Answer the f.ucking question.

  11. Grim says:

    Free shit.

    Whoever makes the biggest promise gets the nomination.

  12. ExEssex says:

    Free shit ? You mean like huge corporate tax breaks?

  13. ExEssex says:

    10:30 that didn’t answer it? How about literally anyone else?

  14. ExEssex says:

    Trump’s an economic failure:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/why-donald-trumps-economic-dream-crumbled/601153/

    An economy propped up by beleaguered consumers – what could go wrong!?

  15. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Lol, please say the economy sucks. That issue will be a big winner. Suggest nationalizing large parts of the economy also, another popular position.

  16. Tuesday 365/365 says:

    ExEssex, relax…. Understand, what I say below can happen, but only as a result of the boomer locust generation die off. Every 100,000 boomer voters that die off, the stuff mentioned below increase 0.1 % in probability of happening

    The overriding meme at this moment in time is “Fraud”. From small to big time, it is the word of the moment, stick “unpunished” in front of it.

    The Tax Cut/Laffer Curve was always a lot of BS. Add to it that it was executed within a fraudulent system and voila … and it guarantees that Trump’s taxes does not work as publicly announce, but it did work to the benefit of very vested interests.

    Trump is incompetent, but that is what I like about it. We are headed, already 80% there to a plutocratic access political system with rotating/shifting oligarchs in power.
    Outside of Sanders/Warren. Trump ensures all their agenda remains “incompetent” on execution. Frankly, I expect a gigantic whipping when a “war event” happens, as the level of malfeasance and incompetence that it will show from the Corporate Financial and Industrial State, and Military Industrial Complex will be outstanding. There is not going to be the societal coming together that happened after 9/11.

    Fast Eddie wanted a list here is good one, all of them come from what it used to be. Meaning they were the law of the land before 1982 on stock buyback prohibition, and Greenspan on Federal Reserve and the Clinton’s Flea Market.

    – Medicare for All or break into regional non-profit mutual insurance companies the health insurance/hospitals/pharmaceuticals oligopolies.
    -Break the banking oligopolies into regional mutual banks, Glass Steagall returns.
    -Reconstitute a new entity that does what Sallie Mae, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae used to do before privatization.
    – Let’s get on all on board (Corporate/Government) with the fact the enemy is China, and start rebuilding industry in the USA, tariffs need to reflect this. Add this Americanized Infrastructure. Meaning fast trains useless outside of the key megalopolis, but rebuild bridges, electrical charging stations, power infrastructure, etc.

  17. ExEssex says:

    11:20 that seems incredibly optimistic. Even delusional.
    Sure it’s great for top earners as it has been for decades.
    I’d gladly be in that group … of wait … we are.
    How about the swing states kicked to the curb by “East trade wars”?
    How about the poor and minorities? If these underclass turns out to vote, Trump is toast.

  18. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    How elitist of you to put poor and minorities in the same block. Sounds like something joe Biden would say.

    Which is of course the current state of the dnc freak show. Elitist handlers using the poor and disenfranchised to perpetrate their social engineering schemes. It’s no wonder they want to grow that constituency as fast as they can by opening the floodgates to the third world. They don’t give a shlt about the working man and only give a shlt about certain minority voting blocks to the extent they can trap them.

  19. Tuesday 365/365 says:

    The best example of the rot right now is Boeing 737 Max, it took down the reputation of Boeing and the FAA globally.

    The SEC/Federal Reserve reputation went down with the financial crisis.

    Same goes with the USDA, why do you think there are so many food recalls and poisoning events ( Do it yourself regulation again)

    Expect the FDA to pop up soon. Big scandal brewing with a lot of medical devices (heart valves, etc) failing big time and all being hidden away. Add to it the do it yourself regulation (like Boeings by the FAA) they agree to do with big pharma. This means your contaminated medication from China will still be better than from a US Big Pharma.

    By the time this is all over (outside of Warren/Sanders) the credibility of the US Governments’ regulating agencies will be the same as the Somali Antipirate Enforcement Agency.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    That list does indeed resemble my father’s democrat party. But that party died and was replaced with a group of dappled loonies pining for all kinds of attention. Also, Trump’s plan was to proposes tax cuts, reduce regulation, lower energy costs and eliminate the US’s trade deficit. He did it in three years among a slew of other accomplishments way too numerous to list so he’s anything but incompetent. It’s astonishing the contrast between his successes and the empty years of his predecessor.

  21. PatrioticHillbilly says:

    Blama was pretty effective at building his private wealth while in office, as were the clintons. Go into the White House penniless and leave worth hundreds of millions.

  22. grim says:

    Free shit ? You mean like huge corporate tax breaks?

    Yes, actually I do.

  23. grim says:

    Please, don’t associate me with either party, they are both criminals, all of the politicians are.

  24. ExEssex says:

    11:38 I disagree. And minorities in most American zip codes enjoy sky high incarceration rates and single digit economic mobility. As long as the GOP focuses on killin’ babies and ownin’ guns, we are doomed.

  25. ExEssex says:

    As for Obama, I’m happy for the guy.
    He’s a huge inspiration for a lot of kids of color.
    He was a competent leader and a steady hand at the wheel.
    Trump is a grifter, his daughter is actually pulling the strings of power.
    Good Lord. We are fuuuuuuucked.

  26. grim says:

    We’re not fucked, we learned an important lesson through the prior two administrations.

    The role of President of the US isn’t as important as we thought it was, in fact, it might actually be almost meaningless.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    As long as the GOP focuses on killin’ babies and ownin’ guns, we are doomed.

    The GOP is now the party of the working class. The democrats are like a scene out of Total Recall.

  28. 3b says:

    And what have the Democrats focused on?? It’s amazing that people think one party is better than the other! They are all bought and paid for.

  29. FreeEverything says:

    As long as the Dems focus on free healthcare for all and open boarders, we are doomed. Everyone on the planet gets free healthcare. The wealthy will pay for it. Open boarders and free healthcare for the world. What could go wrong? We are doomed.

  30. FreeEverything IsDoomedBoomer says:

    FreeEverything, in one area Trump is right and going against the corporate overlord which want open borders.

    You can have closed borders and a social welfare system. You can have an open borders and no social welfare system. But you can’t have open borders and a social welfare system until the economies of the whole planet are relatively even. You can’t have a no social welfare system without severe brutal authoritarian enforcement, which of course will bring constant social struggles and violence and be unstable.

    Only solution until all global economies are even out and social stability is the rule of the world is “Closed borders and a social welfare system”.

  31. ExEssexIsARacist? says:

    ExEssex says:
    September 25, 2019 at 9:39 am
    California has pretty much killed my love of Hispanics.
    Over exposure to the group has shown me they wreck areas they inhabit and are incredibly annoying as a group. Your mileage may vary.

  32. ExEssex says:

    Yep. I enjoy integrated communities. Too much of any group, especially an underclass creates ghettos. They are vast here in the Golden State. I don’t like schools that are overly weighted with one or another ethnic group. I find places with an even mix of races and economic conditions to be better places. YMMV

  33. ExEssexIsARacist? says:

    “they wreck areas they inhabit”

  34. ExEssex says:

    I’d wreck your rectum Beeeatch.

  35. Phoenix says:

    “California has pretty much killed my love of Hispanics.”
    At least their women like to have fun with their partners instead of divorcing them over something as stupid as a Peloton bike.
    No wonder they have more children….

  36. ExEssexIsARacist? says:

    4:34

    says the racist pot smoking drug addict?

  37. ExEssex says:

    So your saying I should be a Trump voter!??

  38. ExEssex says:

    Farmer subsidies from the Trump administration aimed at mitigating the effects of the U.S.-China trade war have reached $28 billion, about double the amount of money shelled out in the government bailout of Detroit automakers in 2009, Bloomberg reports.

    Why it matters: Trump’s bailout still doesn’t cover all of the farmers’ losses. The government has provided $973 million in aid to Iowa farmers during a trade war that is estimated to have cost them $1.7 billion in losses, according to Iowa State University researchers cited by Bloomberg.

    The big picture: The farmers’ losses are just another data point underscoring the negative effects that the trade war has had on Americans. It has led to bigger trade deficits with China, dented consumer sentiment and is weighing down the global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.

    Yes, but: Despite those losses, the trade war doesn’t appear to have broken Trump’s support in rural areas.

    Trump had a 52% approval rating among people in rural areas in August, compared to a 40% approval rating overall, per Gallup.
    Trump’s support among farmers increased from 60% to 67% between 2018 and 2019, according to a Farm Futures poll taken this summer.

  39. Juice Box says:

    Oysters for a buck at whole foods, bacon wrapped scallops dressed in maple sauce, lobster tails broiled and buttered with some nice Kerry gold paired with a nice chardonnay. Fire-pit and fireworks at home this evening, extra early for the kids..

    Happy New Year…..may next year be for you as Shakespeare wrote the world is your oyster, there is no barrier other than the ones you build for yourself.

    Cheers all,

    Juice

  40. ExEssex says:

    President Trump loves it. He’s bragged about the stock market hitting record highs six times this week alone on Twitter.
    On Friday, he boasted “Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past U.S. presidents,” and he vowed that the “BEST IS YET TO COME!” Trump is making the economy and stock market a key focus on his reelection campaign. He often likes to claim this is the “best” or an “unprecedented” scenario, even when that is not the case.
    While the stock market has performed well under Trump, it is not an unprecedented performance. Trump’s stock market returns still lag behind Obama and Clinton at this point in their first terms.

  41. 3b says:

    So Trump should have left China alone and continued on the path we were on?

  42. NJCoast says:

    Served dinner to Southside and the Jukes at the Basie and home before midnight.Winning.
    Happy New Year!

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Happy New Year!!

    How f’ing good is this economy?! Let’s go!! Roaring 20’s 2.0!

  44. grim says:

    Hubris always marks the end

  45. WilburnGep says:

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  46. chicagofinance says:

    The red on Industrials is impact from Boeing

  47. Mike S says:

    both parties are corrupt – but the far left definitely scares me more than the far right

  48. 3b says:

    Mike S . I agree. Just listening to them, and it’s not hard to imagine political re-education canps in the future.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ Editorial excerpt – So shooting whites is good for black babies in utero?

    It was a startling claim, published this month by a Harvard sociologist in the journal Science Advances: “Police killings of unarmed blacks substantially decrease the birth weight and gestational age of black infants residing nearby.” That reinforces “the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage,” Joscha Legewie wrote, because preterm birth can affect things like cognitive development.

    To reach this finding, he had crunched data on 3.9 million California birth records from 2007 to 2016. In retrospect, though, the results appear oddly specific: There was no ill effect on white or Hispanic infants. No ill effect from police killings of white or Hispanic suspects. No ill effect “for police killings of armed blacks.” If the hypothesis was that nearby police violence raises maternal stress, wouldn’t it show up after any trauma in the neighborhood?

    The professor’s explanation was that the trend must be “driven by perceptions of discrimination and structural racism.” White mothers don’t carry that burden. Also, feelings of fear and hopelessness “should be more pronounced for police killings of unarmed victims perceived as unjustified.” There was a nice chart: The effect was strongest when the shooting was within one kilometer of the mother’s home. By about three kilometers, it was statistically insignificant.

    A week later the study was retracted. There were errors, for example, in the classification of armed and unarmed suspects. After fixing them, the effect essentially disappeared. It’s a fact of life, alas, that mistakes happen. Journalism is not immune. Mr. Legewie here has been forthright, and we aren’t trying to pile on.

    But now that we know the result is illusory, it’s revealing to read how the original finding was greeted like a just-so story. “This is an important finding and a very intuitive one,” a New York University sociologist told the L.A. Times. “The fact that it is so clear and so clearly, methodologically, rigorously documented is really important.”

    A Stanford sociologist suggested approaching police violence as a public-health issue. “Providing easy access to support and assistance to try to compensate for the potential negative effects of this type of exposure is good social policy,” she said. A University of Michigan researcher told Wired that this effect could be related to broader feelings of “vigilance” by black Americans—their “need to prove that they are worthy of their humanity because our institutions don’t view it that way.”

    Kevin Drum at Mother Jones noticed another quirk in the data: “Although African-American babies react negatively to police shootings of black men, they actually react positively to police shootings of non-blacks.” Trusting the science, he offered a theory: After a nearby police killing, “if it turns out that a non-black man was shot, it provokes a sense of relief that is sometimes good for the pregnancy.” So shooting whites is good for black babies in utero?

    The L.A. Times ran an article on the study’s retraction. But the first Times write-up is still posted at its website, without a prominent warning that it’s false. In a Google search, that initial Times story is a top result for the query “police shootings black.”

    The point isn’t to dismiss all possible links among race, maternal stress, birth weight and so forth. But when it comes to social science, and especially academic claims on redesigning public policy, this story is a reminder that humility is in order.

  50. chicagofinance says:

    “if it turns out that a non-black man was shot, it provokes a sense of relief that is sometimes good for the pregnancy.”

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  52. OkBoomer says:

    6:06 that’s Gary btw pushing his boomer agenda. Oooooo marijuana’s are druuuugs.

  53. No One says:

    I’ve never heard of a sociology major who wasn’t an apologist for big government. But now they usually do race or gender studies instead. Write papers about the “climate crisis” hurting “marginalized communities” or such double-sh1t topics as that. These majors are the intellectual equivalent of autoer0tic asphyxiation.

  54. Alenaduhusviace says:

    The lonely teens from your city want to chat
    You can find me for sex here: http://tonglibarbo.ml/3c42

  55. Libturd, the Master Beta says:

    If Trump is so about smaller government and draining the swamp? Then how is he running deficits larger than Obama did when handed THE GREATEST economy the world has ever seen?

    Yes, both parties stink. Yes, the rich will continue to get richer. Yes, this will become a bigger and bigger problem as long as our government continues to be bought.

  56. ExEssex says:

    Steyer is growing on me.

  57. Libturd, the Master Beta says:

    Bernie or bust. Though it has become painfully obvious that the dumber the candidate is, the more likely the masses will support them. This first became painfully obvious to me when the Alaskan bimbo gained huge popularity. Then, somehow, the current clown in the white house got elected and AOC has become more popular than KFC!

    Perhaps the Dems are doing this all wrong? Is Farrakhan still alive? Perhaps the DNC should back him?

  58. ExEssex says:

    AOC is stacked tho.

  59. grim says:

    Steyer is growing on me.

    Old white guy race. It’s like a geriatric 5k.

  60. Libturd, knows you can't spell nice without ICE says:

    5K is generous.

    More like a fun run.

  61. Juice Box says:

    Anyone see one of Booker’s Billboards.

    Picture of him with Bloomberg and Steyer in the background, message was we need more “diversity”

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know it won’t end well, but I’m going to enjoy the best economic run of our lifetime for as long as it lasts. Party just getting started. Hopefully it lasts late into this decade. It def has the potential to run this decade.

  63. ExEssex says:

    If Booker would just step back from identity politics.

    He might have a shot at VP.

  64. ExEssex says:

    9:04 seriously dude You are just babbling.

  65. Fast Eddie says:

    The only question to be answered now is how many seats in the House will the Republicans take back? All three branches will be in control and it’ll be a miracle if Ginsberg is alive before Trump leaves office in late 2024; thus, another sane mind appointed to the highest court. As it is, the lower courts are silently being stacked by conservatives Though, in 2024, it’s more likely than not that another Republican is elected so the strength of this nation will only grow stronger.

  66. Juice Box says:

    Booker’s cooked he has to drop out he isn’t polling to qualify in the next debate and he needs run here in NJ to keep his Senate seat, nobody is trying to primary him either. But this is NJ and we even reelect crooks to represent us like Menendez.

    There is a slew of Republican challengers

    Tricia Flanagan
    Rik Mehta
    Stuart David Meissner
    Gary Rich
    Natalie Rivera
    Hirsh Singh

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Millennial spending patterns in housing formation should drive this run. That was always the basis for the strength of this run. People form families and buy homes, this is the fuel for abnormally strong economic growth (you have a giants demographic group about to spend like no tomorrow). Throw in extremely strong fundamentals (access to low rate capital, insanely strong labor market not seen in decades, strong stock market, strong corporate positions) in the economy forming a super strong base for the economy to build upon.

    Babble? How do you see not see what is happening? I saw this back in 2012/13. Open your eyes.

    ExEssex says:
    January 2, 2020 at 9:05 am
    9:04 seriously dude You are just babbling.

  68. ExEssex says:

    9:08
    Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy became the twelfth House Republican to announce he would not seek reelection in 2020, a telling indication of the struggles within the minority party in the House as it grapples with a decided lack of legislative power and the electoral uncertainties created by President Donald Trump.

  69. 3b says:

    According to a recent Bank of America survey of millenials aged 23 to 37, just 47 percent had 15,000 or more in savings and only 16 percent had 100,000 or more in savings. The numbers included bank savings/checking accounts, IRA, 401k and other investment accounts.

  70. Libturd, knows you can't spell nice without ICE says:

    3b,

    Yup! This is what scares me about this supposedly booming economy. Everyone I know is still struggling. I see it through my nieces and nephews. They are all working, and nearly all at paupers wages. My tenants, who are older millenials, are also struggling. My wage growth continues to suck as do most of my peers. Then I read articles about the staggering college debt. The staggering auto loan debt. The repo market is sick. Wall Street can’t function without QE and everyone is partying like it’s 1999!

    Did you all read the Gartmen letter? There is no fear in the markets as nearly none of the participants were around for the last bear.

    Seeing way to many people say, “It’s different this time.”

    Tread carefully my friends.

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    …a telling indication of the struggles within the minority party in the House as it grapples with a decided lack of legislative power and the electoral uncertainties created by President Donald Trump.

    A telling indication… according to who? Congressional members leave, die or retire every election cycle. It says nothing, it means nothing and you continue to say nothing.

  72. Fast Eddie says:

    My wage growth continues to suck as do most of my peers.

    I received a 8% increase in salary and 120% bonus. We’ve had a banner year and hard work has been rewarded. The last two years have been the best financially that I’ve ever had. For ha ha’s I walked into an Audi dealer yesterday as I just happened to be passing by as I’m driving a 12 year old car and I’m getting itchy. I couldn’t even talk to anyone because they were that busy. I haven’t heard of any friend or relative that has been laid off the last few years.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t agree. I have never seen more fearful investing in my life. Everyone is always waiting for the next recession. This has happened every year since 2012. People get over the idea of a recession after predicting this would be the year it would come. Halfway through the year the recession talks start. They take over for a couple months till they realize it’s not coming. Rinse, wash, and repeat. This has been every year since 2012. They have been especially strong since 2015.

    Why do you think the stock market or housing market hasn’t overheated yet? Hell, why the economy has not overheated yet….scared money. They have so much capital on the sidelines in “safety” waiting to pounce on the next crash because in their minds they are buying at the top of the market and a crash is due.

    “Did you all read the Gartmen letter? There is no fear in the markets as nearly none of the participants were around for the last bear.”

  74. 3b says:

    Lib I totally agree. The economy is a house of cards in my opinion but people don’t want to listen. Fortunately my kids do and we have instructed them well. They max out their 401 k. And are not foolish with money. One will be buying a house soon in PA good schools reasonable property taxes and a house they can stay in. Broker tried to talk them into buying a more expensive house but my Daughter shut that down quickly!!

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The 20 somethings bring this avg way down esp the younger ones that are 23-27. Why are we even including early 20 somethings? Hasn’t the past 10 years told you something? 30 is the new 20. Understand this. The late 20 and 30 something millennials will drive this economy with their spending. They are the ones forming households and spending everything they have.

    3b says:
    January 2, 2020 at 9:48 am
    According to a recent Bank of America survey of millenials aged 23 to 37, just 47 percent had 15,000 or more in savings and only 16 percent had 100,000 or more in savings. The numbers included bank savings/checking accounts, IRA, 401k and other investment accounts.

  76. 3b says:

    Fast auto loan delinquencies are at an all time high. My wife has a new car a year old but that’s only because the heat and defroster in our 19 year old Lexus does not work well and she needs a safe car for work. But we still have it and I drive it when weather is good. 12 years old for a car is nothing today! I
    Am happy you got a nice raise and bonus but your situation seems to be the exception and not the norm.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Typical of experts over the past 5 years. Look at Tepper. He pulled out in 2018 because he was convinced the fed effect is over and recession was due. How that work out, Mr. Tepper? Lost out on 30%… good job. Now you are stuck in the bear position and can’t get out.

    “The coming bear market will “do real and perhaps severe damage to portfolios everywhere.”

    That dire warning comes from Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter. He recently announced that he would bring his letter to an end on Dec. 31, after 30 years of publishing.

    Individual investors may not have heard of the Gartman Letter, as it caters to an institutional clientele—who pay as much as $500 a month for the daily service. But he is widely followed on Wall Street. In a recent interview with Barron’s, Gartman reflected on how the world has changed during his career and the investment implications for the future.

    His pessimism has nothing to do with a distaste for President Donald Trump, whom he voted for in the last election and is likely to do so again. Instead, it derives from what he perceives to be the absence of fear among market participants.

    He describes the current environment as a “kids market,” relying on a phrase introduced in the…”

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Main idea of point. Don’t trust the experts or billionaires right now. Financial markets have changed. They still have not adjusted. I’m not anywhere near as intelligent as them, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be wrong. How long have most of them been wrong already? Almost half a decade. Their calls for a recession or crash will come, but not when they expect it. They have been wrong with this call, and will continue to be. It will only happen when they least expect it just like previous cycle endings.

  79. ExEssex says:

    Eddie has his head up his ass. Delusions of grandeur. How’s that middle school reading list going sport?

  80. Bystander says:

    Fundamentals are completely divorced from reality. Corp profits topped in 2014 and only modest .04 increase in 2019 yet stock bubble moving higher and higher. This will not end well. Jerome Powell cowardly cutting rates and bailing out repo is proof. No good economy should have to stoop to these measures. Ed must be paid poorly. My company smooths everything out, compensation wise. Most do. 8 percent and large bonus means you are getting way underpaid salary wise. Go for big raise Ed. Your co-workers probably making 30-40 percent more in base.

  81. ExEssex says:

    Enough politics have you by any chance seen deez nuts?

  82. D-FENS says:

    Guys don’t be silly…there are plenty of Job openings in Manhattan

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-un-hiring-english-speaking-disarmament-officers-new-york

    As the Second Amendment conflict heats up across the United States, here’s another “crazy conspiracy theory” that has turned out to be true.

    The United Nations is hiring in New York. What positions are they trying to fill?

    English-speaking DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION, AND REINTEGRATION OFFICERS.

    Here are the responsibilities for the new hires, as per the United Nations job listing.

    Within delegated authority, the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Officer will be responsible for the following duties:

    Acts as a Focal Point for Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) components for two to three missions, responsible for planning, support to implementation and evaluation;

    Participates in DPO and Integrated Task Force planning meetings for the establishment of a new peacekeeping mission with a potential DDR component;

    Provides technical assistance to peace negotiations;

    Participates in technical assessment missions;

    Advises, develops and reviews (as appropriate) initial DDR functional strategy and concept of operations for further development into a full programme by the DDR component and the National DDR Commission;

    Drafts and reviews DDR inputs to SG report, code cables, and talking points;

    Develops initial result-based framework and budget for new DDR components in new mission;

    Liaises with UNDP and donor community to raise voluntary contributions for DDR programmes;

    Presents and/or defends new and subsequent DDR budgetary requirements in the ACABQ and the 5th Committee of the General Assembly;

    Develops staffing structure and terms of reference for a DDR component, including terms of integration with other UN agencies, funds and programmes;

    Provides technical clearance for applicants to DDR units in new and ongoing missions;

    Provides Headquarters support in planning the civilian and military logistics support for DDR;

    Continually reviews DDR programme strategy and implementation through relevant documents, reports and code cables;

    Conducts field missions to assess implementation of established DDR programmes;

    Identifies potential problems and issues to be addressed and suggests remedies to DDR units in the field;

    Liaises with Member States, UN actors and other DDR interested partners to represent the mission’s DDR component at the Headquarters level;

    Establishes and maintains an outreach network with CSOs and IGOs active in the area of DDR.

    Supports the doctrine development work in the area of DDR in the department, with the Inter-Agency Working Group (IAWG) on DDR and other relevant national and international actors working on DDR issues;

    Contributes to Department-level or Policy Committee-level policy development work on DDR and related issues;

    Maintains and further develops the Integrated DDR Standards – a set of inter-agency policies, guidelines and procedures on DDR;

    On behalf of the Chief of the DDR Section, co-chairs the IAWG on DDR, contributes to bringing coherence to the interaction of the UN system and its partners on DDR;

    Supervises the Associate Expert (Junior Professional Officer) in the development and maintenance of the web-based United Nations DDR Resource Centre;

    Liaises with others (UN, regional organisations and Member States) providing DDR.

    Other duties as required. (source)

    Also notable is the required language fluency – English – and the desired experience.

    Seven years of relevant experience in disarmament affairs, political analysis or in national military or paramilitary service, preferably related to the design, implementation or review of DDR. (source)

    Employees would answer to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

    As per the UN, here are some specifics about this job description. Of special note:

    Disarmament is the collection, documentation, control and disposal of small arms, ammunition, explosives and light and heavy weapons of combatants and often also of the civilian population. Disarmament also includes the development of responsible arms management programmes. (source)

  83. Bystander says:

    I saved 25 percent by not selling my home this year. My neighbor bought brand new for 890k in 2014 and sold for 835k after 7 months on market. He put about 65k into it and spent another 40k holding it for 7 months. With realtor commissions, conveyance fees etc. He lost over 200k. That wipes out stock gains. 30 years analysis is spot on in terms of area depreciation. Dufus had a mental snap in Dec and living alone now in Wayne. Also spent NYE with 6 older millenial couples, probably 38. None of them were knocking it out. Kids costs, student loans and stagnating local wages basically eating at lifestyle. I would bet lots of stay at home moms saddled with loans. They love their craft beer. Corona was not touched even with Mex food theme . Orange moron has sham economy.

  84. Libturd (breaking the echo chamber) says:

    The way I see it, Trump is the first leader to delay a recession by borrowing from the future at a time when the market was cruising along decently well. By lowering corporate tax rates and providing mega incentives for the repatriation of former profit from foreign earnings, he allowed companies to buy back lots of shares making their earnings per share increase artificially. This also created a nice by-product for the wealthier employees (large shareholders) as it increased the value of their positions. Sadly, PT Barnum performed this spectacle under the guise of job creation. But as we all know and as has been proven by the data points that Trump completely ignores (except perhaps when referring to the gains he’s made in black employment) the vast majority of these jobs are near the bottom of the pay spectrum. On top of this, the market has continued it’s slow melt up that occurred under Obama, but without corresponding sales increases for many of these companies as equity values follow EPS, not sales growth.

    Now all of this is fine and dandy and believe me I’ve profited handsomely (on paper) from Trump’s facade. But the emperor’s new clothes will clearly be revealed when the market does finally stumble. Why? Because the drop will be that much greater as the recent large gain was mostly artificial. Throw in the fact that the FED has been forced to lower rates by PT Barnum, and there is nothing the FED can do to right the ship besides borrow more from the future. All of this is occurring as the economy for the rest of the world is struggling, aided by Barnum’s facade of balancing the trading field. A noble effort, I agree. But a total failure, in result.

    So want to be really scared? The world economy has nowhere to go but up after years of stagnancy. As America’s market and economy are collapsing, as the sham that PT Barnum has built is revealed. The safe haven, that the US once represented, may very well lose it’s footing. Would you invest your hard-earned money in a market clearly manipulated? I (and most who I know) don’t invest in Chinese/Hong Kong equities for this very reason. No amount of military spending will change this perception. So the market collapse will be impacted by three clear issues. 1) The revelation that earnings were all juiced by share buy backs and not growth int he companies they represent. 2) The lack of the FED to have any bullets in the chamber (for the first time ever during a major market correction). 3) The massive withdrawal of international investment in our markets when foreign investors realize that lack of regulation has reduced faith in our public corporate books from one of great trust to one of lies.

    JJ used to say, “Don’t fight the FED.” And THIS he was right about. But the FED is no longer an independent-minded authority. This was evidenced by their rate increases made during the melt up, but then immediate reversal (can’t ever remember seeing that before) during the Greatest Economy Ever!

    The moment the facade is realized, it’s going to get real ugly, real quick. Until then, head over to that party across the lake that Trump is throwing.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/workers-at-lower-end-of-pay-scale-getting-most-benefit-from-rising-wages.html

  85. Fast Eddie says:

    How’s that middle school reading list going sport?

    Just got don reading a John Le Carre novel. I love fiction, have no desire reading non-fiction at the moment. Maybe down the road.

  86. Bystander says:

    Lib,

    PT Barnum was centered in Bridgeport CT, next town over from me. There are still remnants all over of that time. Believe you don’t want to be anywhere near Bridgeport now

  87. D-FENS says:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ronshevlin/2019/02/21/debunking-the-auto-loan-delinquency-crisis/#2ed2ea4b12f8

    3b says:
    January 2, 2020 at 10:39 am
    Fast auto loan delinquencies are at an all time high. My wife has a new car a year old but that’s only because the heat and defroster in our 19 year old Lexus does not work well and she needs a safe car for work. But we still have it and I drive it when weather is good. 12 years old for a car is nothing today! I
    Am happy you got a nice raise and bonus but your situation seems to be the exception and not the norm.

  88. Fast Eddie says:

    8 percent and large bonus means you are getting way underpaid salary wise.

    My title change comes mid-year, forgot to include that.

  89. D-FENS says:

    The economy is so bad that 3b’s daugher bought a house.

    The great recession of 2019 was ruthless. oof

  90. D-FENS says:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/12/sean-duffy-k-street-069854

    Dude was offered a sweet K-Street gig. it’s where they all go…

    ExEssex says:
    January 2, 2020 at 9:39 am
    9:08
    Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy became the twelfth House Republican to announce he would not seek reelection in 2020, a telling indication of the struggles within the minority party in the House as it grapples with a decided lack of legislative power and the electoral uncertainties created by President Donald Trump.

  91. Fast Eddie says:

    PT Barnum…. blah, blah…. this is going to end badly… blah, blah… and so on and so on. If a dem was in office, all the anti-Trump crowd would be praising him/her. Yet, there is no solution on the left that would offer growth, fiscal tightening and deficit reductions. Tax increases and government control is not a wealth builder. Keep telling yourselves otherwise. Aside from his big mouth, Trump has gotten more done in three years than any other president in my adult life. The only one who rivals him is Reagan.

  92. Fast Eddie says:

    D-FENS,

    Bazinga!! lol!

  93. Libturd, knows you can't spell nice without ICE says:

    Still waiting on his healthcare plan. No?

  94. Libturd (breaking the echo chamber) says:

    And Trump’s big mouth is the only reason you believe he has gotten so much done.

    His strategy is incredibly simple. Create the narrative. Repeat frequently. Disciples will do the rest.

  95. Libturd, knows you can't spell nice without ICE says:

    “Dude was offered a sweet K-Street gig. it’s where they all go…”

    Draining the swamp, my hairy ass.

  96. 3b says:

    Defens she bought a house after her and her fiancé saved and put down 20 percent while still maximizing their 401k contributions while still having a big chunk of savings after the 20 percent. They also bought in an area with reasonable house prices and low property taxes. And they both have excellent jobs one with a pension as well as 401k and neither one has student loans.

  97. Libturd (breaking the echo chamber) says:

    And Pennsy smart. Wish we lived there! So much more for so much less.

  98. 3b says:

    Defens point noted on the auto loan myth per the article and the same article states millenials birth rate is the lowest of any generation in American history.

  99. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    See libs comment. That is truth. Guys tweets out everything little thing like he invented it. You are fooled bc he has R next to his name. Pretty sad really. Not that Trump has not accomplished good but he is simply following Fed trend of printing our way to wealth that Obama enjoyed.. but on much more dangerous level. You want to open up your mouth for more of his dog$hit then go ahead but he and Powell are distorting for political purposes. How is Foxconn BTW? I though GE bailout was political gift and stunt. No mainstream media seems to care that they are basically bailing on big plans, even with biggest tax incentive ever provided. Another Dumpy photo ops with sham results.

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    The economy is so good, even Oblammy bought a 12 million house.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one does 20% anymore. Your daughter is perfect example of how wrong you are. Look at her, 20% down payment, investing hard for the future. Yes, crappy economy.

    3b says:
    January 2, 2020 at 12:48 pm
    Defens she bought a house after her and her fiancé saved and put down 20 percent while still maximizing their 401k contributions while still having a big chunk of savings after the 20 percent. They also bought in an area with reasonable house prices and low property taxes. And they both have excellent jobs one with a pension as well as 401k and neither one has student loans.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not worried about real estate values dropping in northeast nj. You have to be insane to take that position long term. No way will housing in this area go down based on the economy. It makes absolutely no sense. Maybe short term it’s horrible, but who plays the real estate short term and comes out ahead in the long run? Very few…

    Are you looking around? See how much money is being dumped in northeast nj redevelopment? It’s insane.

    Bystander says:
    January 2, 2020 at 12:07 pm
    I saved 25 percent by not selling my home this year. My neighbor bought brand new for 890k in 2014 and sold for 835k after 7 months on market. He put about 65k into it and spent another 40k holding it for 7 months. With realtor commissions, conveyance fees etc. He lost over 200k. That wipes out stock gains. 30 years analysis is spot on in terms of area depreciation. Dufus had a mental snap in Dec and living alone now in Wayne. Also spent NYE with 6 older millenial couples, probably 38. None of them were knocking it out. Kids costs, student loans and stagnating local wages basically eating at lifestyle. I would bet lots of stay at home moms saddled with loans. They love their craft beer. Corona was not touched even with Mex food theme . Orange moron has sham economy.

  103. 3b says:

    I am ignoring you but will respond to your 20 percent comment. Smart responsible people put down 20 percent so that they have a comfortable mortgage payment in a house they can stay in for years. I am so not surprised that you are an advocate of not putting 20 percent down. New economy blah, blah from a guy that sits in a classroom all day. My financial advise to my children comes from years of Wall Street experience including many years at GS before it became the serpent squid or whatever it is called today. I learned from people who were a hell of a lot smarter than I was and who had rea money. The fundamentals don’t change. I hope you are not giving financial advice to people. God help them if they listen!

  104. 3b says:

    Lib Pennsy ain’t perfect no place is but it’s a hell of a lot better than NJ or NY.

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Also, your neighbor bought a brand new house? Remember, brand new house is a premium. You can lose a lot of money if you buy a new house and have to move within 5 years. Also, conn is a different animal. It never recovered like nj. I believe it eventually will due to its location and how beautiful it is, but for now, conn is hurting and will continue to. There will be a bottom and it will recover.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I put down 20%, but you are insane if you think the avg buyer is putting down 20% these days. Good job with your daughter.

    Just understand there are others like your daughter. The proof is in front of your eyes. Your own daughter is an example of the millennials going to work. Not all are dead broke..

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    ““Very few CFOs we speak with feel their staff is adequately prepared to fulfill the finance mandate of driving growth through data analytics and digital transformation,” said Jeff Glenzer, executive vice president and chief operating officer at the Association for Financial Professionals, a Bethesda, Md.-based professional organization.

    Talent remained the biggest challenge facing companies in the fourth quarter of 2019 for the 10th straight quarter, according to the AICPA’s outlook survey. And chief risk officers counted it among the top emerging risks in 2020, according to a survey by North Carolina State University’s Enterprise Risk Management Initiative and consulting firm Protiviti Inc.

    Some employers have turned to short-term job training programs, or boot camps, to train workers for hard-to-fill jobs.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/cfos-concerns-about-the-economy-talent-shortage-seep-into-2020-11577804402?mod=hp_minor_pos8

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the problem with this economy. They can’t find enough workers. Very bad times indeed.

  109. Bystander says:

    Funny, is that not capitalism? If you can’t get workers you need then pay up for skill. CFOs don’t want to pay up so they claim shortage. I manage hiring and budget for my tech team and we will simply not hire Americans. It is a “good” lie, like shortages in housing market. Pure BS. It is price.

  110. ExEssex says:

    12:58 huh!? BRock didn’t have to finance it with Russia…..

  111. chicagofinance says:

    ooops….. does not fit narrative…. must suppress….

    Andrew McCabe said he lied to FBI about Wall Street Journal leak

  112. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    If you go immediately over to the PA border by me in Buck’s county, the homes suddenly get much much nicer on a bigger property at a lower tax rate. If I were allowed to live in PA, I would, and I’m sure my standard of living would increase by 15 to 20%. And that’s 10 minutes away.

  113. chicagofinance says:
  114. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    If you put down less than 20%, you have to pay mortgage insurance on top of it. More money down the drain. I’ve watched plenty of people I know personally (age 35 to 45) put down 3 to 10%. They are all behind the 8-ball and always living paycheck to paycheck.

  115. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’ve been to NYC twice in the past 8 years. I took my kids to a jazz concert for Christmas. The amount of homeless in Penn Station was much larger than I’ve ever seen. Same goes for the bums on the street. I remember hopping over homeless in the 80s. I remember when Giuliani cleaned up the city in the 90s. Bloomberg kept it going. DeBlasio….I mean wtf…? How can you screw up this bad?

    I was also reminded why I never go into the city. Bunch of a-holes only concerned about themselves. I had to stiff arm some guy to prevent him from walking through my 5 year old daughter.

  116. 3b says:

    Blue the problem with NYC now is that there are too many foreigners living there Manhattan specifically. And by foreigners I don’t mean people from other countries I mean people from other states who move to Manhattan and automatically think they are native sophisticated NY ers. The city is so fake and pretentious now and the arse hole count is at an all time high!

  117. njtownhomer says:

    Only an ignorant can give a shit about what is going on in the city based on 2 visits in last decade. Giuliani my XXX.

    NYC is not what is used to be in 1980s. It is a high-tech hub and still a desired place to move into. Not like the dull NJ/CT suburbs. Without NYC the whole area would be like midwest.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Drop the mic

    “Without NYC the whole area would be like midwest.”

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s why if you are only 14 miles from nyc right now, sitting on a future goldmine in real estate. Same with Wayne. Only 24 miles from nyc. Just tell me how this whole entire area inside rt 287 is not going to be taken over by the nyc economic super growth engine. North east nj is already in the mouth of the beast. Gold Coast is in there, and the rest is about to be taken.

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So instead of making the point that nj would be nothing without nyc, understand that northeast nj is becoming nyc.

  121. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Blue the problem with NYC now is that there are too many foreigners living there Manhattan specifically. And by foreigners I don’t mean people from other countries I mean people from other states who move to Manhattan and automatically think they are native sophisticated NY ers. The city is so fake and pretentious now and the arse hole count is at an all time high!

    I used to love Brooklyn before the hipster invasion

  122. ExEssex says:

    OAKLAND, CA – DECEMBER 23: A portrait of Steven DeCaprio in his Oakland home on Dec. 23, 2019. DeCaprio was homeless when he began squatting in an abandoned, dilapidated house in West Oakland in 2008. He spent years living there and fixing it up before going to Alameda County Superior Court and staking a claim to the house. Now, under California’s adverse possession law, DeCaprio is the property’s legal owner. As the Bay Area’s homelessness crisis intensifies, others have attempted to take over vacant homes as a solution. But, DeCaprio warns, winning legal ownership is a difficult process. (Dai Sugano/Bay Area News Group)
    If you break into an empty house, move in your family and your belongings and call it home, can you ever stake a legal claim to the property?

    The answer is yes. But it’s a difficult process, and it rarely ends successfully.

    “Sometimes I’m just overwhelmed with a sense of appreciation for the privilege of having a house,” said Steven DeCaprio, who moved into a vacant and dilapidated Oakland house in 2008, sued to be declared the home’s rightful owner — and won.

  123. D-FENS says:

    Do we still think the presidency is meaningless after tonight?

  124. ExEssex says:

    Wag the dog time. Seriously.
    Trump don’t play and now kids,
    By his direct order. We are at War.

    Dow tanking, Brent Crude spiking.

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