From MarketWatch:
Fannie Mae: Home sales will decline by 15% in 2020 due to coronavirus, but what will happen to property prices?
At the end of last year, economists expected that 2020 would be a strong year for housing. But now thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, home sales are poised to nose dive in the months ahead.
A new report from Fannie Mae FNMA, +11.11% projects that home sales will fall by nearly 15% in 2020. Driving that decline will be a downturn in existing home sales, which Fannie Mae expects will drop to an annual rate of 4.54 million units, down from 5.34 million in 2019.
Issues with both supply and demand are expected to contribute to the decline in home-buying activity. On the demand side, the rapid rise in unemployment as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and its accompanying stay-at-home orders will curtail many Americans’ ability to afford a purchase as big as a home.
…
Sellers don’t necessarily need to worry about lower prices if they do put their home on the market, according to Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae is still projecting the median price for an existing home to rise to $275,000 in 2020 from $272,000 last year, while the median price for a new home is expected to increase to $326,000 from $321,000.
While the downturn in sales is expected to lead to a slower pace of mortgage lending for loans used to purchase homes, refinancing is expected to remain strong throughout the year thanks to the low rate environment. Fannie Mae projects there will be $1.41 trillion in refinance loans originated in 2020, up from $1.01 trillion last year.
The good news for prospective home buyers and sellers alike is that the situation in the real-estate market is expected to improve next year, according to Fannie Mae. The mortgage giant currently expects the U.S. economy and home sales both to rebound in 2021. But that rebound is contingent on the pandemic’s trajectory.
Ol’ Fannie seems optimistic…
Now I know it’s the end of the world.
Jersey Girls don’t pump gas? Coronavirus may change that
Only during a global health emergency might New Jerseyans finally start handling a gasoline pump.
A group of gas station owners believe Gov. Phil Murphy should combat what they call a budding safety and financial crisis at the pumps by suspending a singular, seven-decade old Garden State tradition: the ban on drivers fueling their own vehicles.
In the past month, attendants across the state’s 2,200 stations have quit in droves over fears of contracting the coronavirus from customers, forcing some businesses to close shop, according to an industry trade group. Others have shuttered for a week or more after their employees tested positive – all while sales have reportedly plummeted with fewer cars on the road leading to lower demand.
At the gas station I use, no attendant. Must be hiding, because I have to pump my own gas.
Pump your own gas? Oh the humanity
“Fannie Mae is still projecting the median price for an existing home to rise to $275,000 in 2020 from $272,000 last year, while the median price for a new home is expected to increase to $326,000 from $321,000.”
Wow, that’s crazy that the median for the entire country is 272,000. Shows you how much more houses ran up in price in the cheap areas of the country. I remember when the median was under 200k and 500k was an expensive house. I’m getting old…
Although forests are greener, reservoirs are fuller and widespread water restrictions are gone, many believe the past few years, in which there was pretty decent rainfall, were just a blip on a troubling long-term skid into drier times.
A group of scientists now says that the American West, including California, has been in the midst of a prolonged drought since the beginning of the century — one on par with only four mega-droughts experienced over the past 1,200 years and one capable of causing major social upheaval.
The last mega-drought that the researchers describe, between 1575 and 1593, is believed to have forced Native Americans to relocate whole communities from sprawling mesas to lower river valleys in search of water. The mega-drought before that, in the 1200s, is thought to have contributed to the fall of the cliff-dwelling Anasazi civilization in the Southwest.
“The past two decades look a lot like how the biggest mega-droughts of the past millennium developed,” said Park Williams, bioclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and lead author of the study published Thursday in the journal Science. “These mega-droughts are not like anything we’ve seen in recent centuries. They’re viewed as mythical beasts. There’s nothing that’s come even close to them.”
The fear is that if current dry times continue, which the paper’s authors say is more likely than not, the modern era soon will be in the grip of its first mega-drought.
Stocks are set to rally on hope for an effective coronavirus treatment, Dow futures rise 700 points:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html
Youtube on housing market, mortgages etc from 4-2. Ivy Zelman on the panel. More people will want to move to suburbs and beyond. This am, JPM said to get a mortgage, applicant will need 700 and 20% down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJz39ghYX7g
California could solve a lot of problems by building safe generation IV nuclear plants and desalination plants.
Politicians will get in the way and squander the chance sadly…
I dunno man…unless they know something we don’t. I was hopeful in the beginning but none of the proposed cures seem to be working as well as hoped…
At this point I’m ready to get sick and get it over with.
Fast Eddie says:
April 17, 2020 at 7:39 am
Stocks are set to rally on hope for an effective coronavirus treatment, Dow futures rise 700 points:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html
Relax and let oblivion wash over us so to speak…
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2010/03/04/fed-housing-markets-appear-to-have-softened-in-early-2010/#comment-372771
7:21 I’ve watched three major fires literally roll through my backyard in the 3 years I have been here.
D-FENS,
Was it over when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?
Where is your fighting spirit?
Usually, nobody wants to be first.
Now we have a first.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/cantor-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-in-break-from-wall-street-pledge?srnd=premium
Have fun Wall Streeters
Regarding Wuhan Cooties, working theory with my colleagues that seems very plausible. Yes, I’m a licensed medical professional not some internet lunatic.
Its apparent that once the start of fever,first signs, or high index of suspicion that you got it. You must practice pulmonary toiletry. That means humidification (2 hot steamy showers a day – where you practice deep breathing and coughing, you continue the breathing and coughing exercises, along with lying on your belly for at least 15 minutes and coughing. Look up Cystic Fibrosis breathing exercises.
Why, well it looks that once the infection start, it kills cells in your lung that produce surfactant, along with the ones that move (ciliaries) secretions with little hairs on them. If you don’t do the exercises, the dead cells accumulate and clog up the alveoli (air sacs) where gas exchange happens.
It will happen, but you will not notice the effect until week 2 of infection, that is where the build up of dead cells drops the lungs compliance (elasticity) so its harder to breathe, and so many alveoli / air sacs are compromised that you have a gas exchange/oxygenation problem and you are going down hill faster than the real estate market.
I can’t see house prices rising in this environment, makes absolutely no sense.
I’m watching 3 guys build a 2,500 square ft house with a 2 car garage across the street from me. They framed it in about 5- 6 days and started putting the plywood on it yesterday. The most impressive part is that two of them look to be in their late 50s early 60s and they stream classic rock all day.
20 percent down and 700 credit score??!! That will hurt . My spouse said prior to the virus they were doing lots of deals with 5 percent down. Suburbs and beyond, keep going!
In War Against COVID-19, Murphy Wants to Tap Constitution’s Wartime-Borrowing Clause
https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/04/in-war-against-covid-19-murphy-wants-to-tap-constitutions-wartime-borrowing-clause/
Gov. Phil Murphy is asking lawmakers in response to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic to authorize emergency borrowing powers that were written into New Jersey’s Constitution to help fortify the state’s coffers during times of war or major disaster.
The governor made a case for flexing those special fiscal powers during a media briefing in Trenton on Thursday, citing the significant economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic, which has already caused hundreds of thousands of New Jersey residents to lose their jobs.
“This is something that I feel pretty strongly that we need to have as a tool in our toolkit,” Murphy said.
Draft legislation obtained by NJ Spotlight did not include a total amount of emergency debt the governor is seeking to have authorized, but during the briefing Murphy suggested as much as $9 billion could be requested. It remains to be seen whether Democratic legislative leaders will cooperate with any request for new borrowing from Murphy, a first-term Democrat.
Alcohol sales up 20% year over year. Marcal restarts Elmwood Park toilet paper mill this February after devastating fire. Some people step in poop and still come out smelling like roses. Best of luck to all of you.
https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/
Updated: April 15, 2020 – 11:06 PM
BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.
The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.
Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell…
Blue – check out the report from the carrier that was infected, I believe it was the same ratios, something like 600 men were positive with no symptoms. This can cut both ways though. If this virus is similar to an aids virus , you can carry it for some time infecting others before it ultimately overcomes you. That would suck.
20 percent down and 700 credit score??!! That will hurt . My spouse said prior to the virus they were doing lots of deals with 5 percent down. Suburbs and beyond, keep going!
I wonder if all these 5 percenters have to put their home on the market after not being able to make a mortgage payment. There’s no way they had a rainy day fund.
“20 percent down and 700 credit score??!”
That’s what my parents told me was required when I bought my first home back in 2004.
When I sat with Carl my mortgage broker, he told me, “Your parents raised you right, but what they told you was completely wrong!”
That’s when I first realized why I was rapidly getting priced out of a home in reasonable commuting distance to NYC. Everyone else was buying homes for 3% down and paying PMI. Why not? Was cheaper than renting and everyone knew they were not planning on ever paying it off. Then we bailed out Wall Street.
RE – Cantor –
I really hope that the normal job interview question of “Do you have any questions for me/us?” that is asked of the candidate starts to get taking more seriously.
My question/answer, if ever needed will be:
“How did your firm handle personnel decisions during the Covid-19 pandemic? Were any employees laid off? How many? What was your C-Suite annual salary + non-cash comp, during 2020? (For public traded companies)
BRT,
For a time, forbearance and then drag it out for a few years in court. Probably why banks will start getting bigger downpayment, no?
Who is next after Cantor. MS said no layoffs in 2020. How much further do things have to deteriorate before a cascade of layoffs?
Based on my observation, Grocery store inventory starting to see next leg down at S&S and SR. Anyone else seeing this?
I’m not sure how this plays out. I would have predicted my uncle would have been evicted out of my grandmothers home in 2009 but he’s still there to this day living free. Anything below 20% never made any sense to me from a lending perspective.
The bank forced me to put down 40% to qualify…even though I basically had enough cash to buy outright at the time. So…the requirements never really made much sense. I could have had a million dollars in the bank and they would have approved someone who lives paycheck to paycheck faster than they did me.
I worked had a conversation with a coworker 7 years ago. He was 65 at the time. He bought a million dollar home on a 10 year arm. He said…he’ll be 75 when the thing blows up…who the hell cares what happens.
Murphy wants to borrow?
WTF happened to the idead of the Bank of NJ? Publicly owned bank like the one in North Dakota. Take all gov deposits away from Wall St and use the magic of banking to give out loans?
Blue – Got one of here at my gig a new exec (mid-60s) just started and was bragging about how they just closed on a 5 acre McMansion in NJ. Not sure about the ARM but I would not doubt it.
Literally just a few blocks from where I grew up
https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-nursing-home-where-29-died-of-coronavirus-gets-death-threat/
A death threat at a nursing home?
See if Alanis Morissette made it.
Whoops.
You all know me already anyway.
Juice who in their right mind at that age would spend that kind of money, while still having to work?
Based on my observation, Grocery store inventory starting to see next leg down at S&S and SR. Anyone else seeing this?
I noticed overall inventory at the local SR has been drastically declining after being ahead of the pack at the beginning. To the point where I was surprised how little selection there was for most items last week; lots of empty spaces on the shelves everywhere, even in produce. Didn’t find most of what I went there for.
On the other hand, stooped a little lower yesterday and went to the AC MarkEt they surprisingly had a stock of nearly all items except those the hoarders have wiped out everywhere (brand-name TP, cleaners, etc). Their prices are crazy for non-sale items though. Even saw some Safeway tractor trailers delivering to them recently so looks like they are exercising much more flexibility in their supply chain. In the meantime SR locks you out of their website so you can’t even read their one-page sale flyer for the week.
What do you guys think of Dr. Michael Osterholm’s take on the virus?
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/this-isn-t-a-red-state-vs-blue-state-issue-cautions-doctor-81967173580
Is that a lyric from the song Ironic?
Stuart J Weissman says:
April 17, 2020 at 12:05 pm
A death threat at a nursing home?
See if Alanis Morissette made it.
Libturd,
This is not that different the polio pandemic of the 50’s. In that it will require government coordination for research, treatment and long term prevention, response to flare up and continual surveillance and medical care of it.
Problem is the victims are not kid, but old people that happen to be the most selfish, country destroying, lying to your face, sack of horse doo doo that the country has ever had. Not only stopping younger generations from actually having empathy for them, but they are so odious in their views, that they can’t even come together themselves as a generation to overcome the financial and structural challenges to save themselves, because at heart they are morally and intellectually bankrupt to actually act differently. If Apollo 13 had happened now under the boomer locust, they would have turn off the radio and tell them to die off. The more you look at it, the more you realize the Wuhan Virus might be the best thing ever for this country at the present time.
The new realities, they will be a lot of big government and higher taxes. Healthcare will become a strong Medicare for All, not only to cover everyone, coordinate research and care, and to save a lot of needed community hospitals. Neo-liberal no government regulation globalization and free market ideology – failed. Science and natural facts are in, pr, gaslighting, fake news is out – if you don’t believe it, well nature will collect your scalp.
Is a new world out there, it will take a while to sink in. Something like, https://youtu.be/_XT6EEPg65g
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Abstract
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
I’m interested to hear/read the plan he said he’ll release this week.
Libturd says:
April 17, 2020 at 12:36 pm
What do you guys think of Dr. Michael Osterholm’s take on the virus?
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/this-isn-t-a-red-state-vs-blue-state-issue-cautions-doctor-81967173580
1:04 pure gold. Alanis was featured in the Daily Mail with her huge flopper out nursing her latest. Too this day I never understood the appeal. Similar, Lady GaGa.
Can we now establish that hoarding is a disease and a threat to our national security. Nothing like a good crisis to trigger these freaks.
Me too Joyce. The dude is the epitome of anti-partisan so it will be refreshing to see his report. I expect the news agencies will continue to ignore him, even though he is probably the most expert person in the world when it comes to understanding pandemics. Though obviously, he will most likely have a greater, end the pandemic spread bias than save the economy slant.
Chi wins a prize. You can choose either the stuffed frog or the one-eyed Minion.
On Cantor, my good friend works over there and he told me they whacked what seems like 50% of their IT Staff(he lost half his team) and cut salaries for those who didn’t get canned! I told him I hope when we recover they remember how badly the firm treated them during a crisis and leave en-mass causing a massive disruption to business. The folks they have mistreated literally keep the lights on, trades flowing, phones working, systems up.
On grocery stores, the reason ShopRite had more inventory early on was the large distribution center(1m sqft) they have off exit 8 on the turnpike, same is true of AHOLD who owns stop&shop. In the northeast region they are well warehoused so they had a large stock of non-perishables as the supply chain is impacted, currently the issue is resupply when more is leaving the warehouses than usual and it seems there is a shortage of truckers willing to work and COVID is impacting the producers as well. From the sounds of it Cerberus is directing supplies from their western strongholds to the eastern market.
So it appears Remdesivir is effective, unfortunately it is intravenous and only works early on, surprise…surprise. We need an anti-viral in pill form with few side-effects that can be administered early. If they can do that a vaccine is likely a moot point, apparently SARS-CoV2 is a very stable virus meaning limited mutations will likely result in lasting immunity. The santa clara study is confirming there were far more infected and the death rate is far lower than anyone thinks. Also the death rate will go down as doctors get better at treating this, conventional Pneumonia treatment has been a failure.
I mentioned this in our first thread on covid19, the Chinese had no qualms about stealing.
BrightGene said on February 12th that it had managed to(steal) manufacture Remdesivir in large quantities, sending its stock up 60% to a record high.
They were later reprimanded by the shanghai exchange for lying.
Where are the arrests?
What is more interesting is the stolen formula for remdesivir was studied using the now infamous Wuhan Institute of Virology on covid19 patients from Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020.
They even published a paper on it way back on January 24th and they filed for their own patent in China on remdesivir. How does that not get more play in the MSM?
This is some real nation state f*uc*kery
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
The amount of cures we could potentially have for all kinds of illnesses would totally work if they were injections. The gold standard is pill form. Unfortunately, our bodies are so effective at removing foreign compounds from the digestive system that most potential medicines fail due to delivery failure.
All this will backfire to China really bad. I also know that along with a lot of electronic device manufacturing secrets, the top of the line microprocessor architecture and full documentation are also handed to them by prime US companies for a chum-change. All for the name of short-term profit. Pharma is similar I assume. Even F35 secrets were leaked out all these years.
Vaccine is far out, but I think like the doctor from California, we are going to get antibody injections regularly to go out and to be public again for a few years. It is important especially with re-lapses seen in Korea.
I wonder the lockdown will be permanent for elderly and people with special conditions for a longer time.
Already used in insulin. No lung issues. Ultra fast delivery mechanism in much higher concentrations. Shelf stable at a wide temperature range.
MannKind has also developed an innovative line of breath-powered, dry powder inhalers for use with Technosphere® formulations. Our inhalers are easy to use, cost-effective and can be produced in both a reusable (chronic treatment) and a single-use (acute treatment) format. Both the reusable and single-use inhaler formats use the same internal air-flow design. Being breath-powered, our inhalers require only the patient’s inhalation effort to deliver the powder. To administer the inhalation powder, a patient loads a cartridge into our inhaler and inhales through the mouthpiece. Upon inhalation, the dry powder is lifted out of the cartridge and broken (or de-agglomerated) into small particles. The inhalers are engineered to produce an aggressive airstream that de-agglomerates the powder while keeping the powder moving relatively slowly. This slow-moving powder effectively navigates the patient’s airways to reach the deep lung with minimal deposition at the back of the throat. Our inhalers show very little change in performance (i.e., efficient cartridge emptying) over a wide range of inhalation efforts.
Technosphere® Technology can be applied to a number of important therapeutic areas, including metabolic diseases like diabetes, respiratory diseases, and other conditions requiring acute drug delivery, such as pain management.
Most importantly, inhaled medicine offers an alternative to injections, helping people get the therapies they need and get back to being humann. MannKind has partnered with several organizations to leverage Technosphere® Technology to help change more lives for the better.
Technosphere® powders are based on our proprietary excipient, fumaryl diketopiperazine, which is a pH-sensitive organic molecule that self-assembles into small particles under acidic conditions. Certain drugs, such as insulin or treprostinil, can be loaded onto these particles by combining a solution of the drug with a solution or suspension of Technosphere® material, which is then dried to powder form. The resulting powder has a consistent and narrow range of particle sizes with good aerodynamic properties that enable efficient delivery deep into the lungs. Technosphere® powders dissolve quickly when the particles contact the moist lung surface with its neutral pH, releasing the drug molecules to diffuse across a thin layer of cells into the arterial circulation, bypassing the liver to provide excellent systemic exposure.
We have successfully prepared Technosphere® formulations of anionic and cationic drugs, hydrophobic and hydrophilic drugs, proteins, peptides, and small molecules. We have also successfully formulated a wide variety of API, from small molecules to proteins (like insulin) to address a variety of health conditions.
Texas schools are physically closed or rest of the school year. Online learning for the rest of the 2019-20 school year. Teachers will be allowed back in the buildings to do online learning, administrative duties, and gather supplies if they want.
Texas will start reopening in gradual steps.
Retail will be allowed to reopen for curbside pickups starting April 24th and more things will be allowed to open in May. No plans yet for dine in restaurants or movie theaters.
More details will be announced April 27th.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/what-to-know-about-gov-abbotts-order-to-reopen-texas-economy-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/287-9abd70ee-a9bc-4fdc-90b7-a1884f748431
“Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,” said Mr. Munger. “This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.”
Is another Great Depression possible?
“Of course we’re having a reces-sion,” said Mr. Munger. “The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.”
He added, “I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.”
Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?
“I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic conse-quences are going to be,” said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.”
Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. “This will cause us to shutter some businesses,” Mr. Munger said. “We have a few bad businesses that…we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.”
Mr. Munger told me: “I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.” The coronavirus shutdown is “something we have to live through,” letting the chips fall where they may, he said. “What else can you do?”
Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control—by harvesting tax losses, for instance—but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/charlie-munger-the-phone-is-not-ringing-off-the-hook-11587132006?emailToken=174cf9114e967ad2b14e691c549c7676bxrfweDwSnB0HfKN7j2qqkvJ/d43gbheF0xjkkPg4nq/59NHwU2JN4T6sOVq6hSWaFNxwJlMV8soMag8AZi3QfUvzghRCJnuXH9rm7iDxS2Aq9l/F1u1AYnXgQ2Or2kM&reflink=article_copyURL_share
“Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,” said Mr. Munger. “This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.”
Is another Great Depression possible?
“Of course we’re having a reces-sion,” said Mr. Munger. “The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.”
He added, “I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.”
Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?
“I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic conse-quences are going to be,” said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.”
Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. “This will cause us to shutter some businesses,” Mr. Munger said. “We have a few bad businesses that…we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.”
Mr. Munger told me: “I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.” The coronavirus shutdown is “something we have to live through,” letting the chips fall where they may, he said. “What else can you do?”
Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control—by harvesting tax losses, for instance—but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.
“I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic conse-quences are going to be,” said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/charlie-munger-the-phone-is-not-ringing-off-the-hook-11587132006?emailToken=174cf9114e967ad2b14e691c549c7676bxrfweDwSnB0HfKN7j2qqkvJ/d43gbheF0xjkkPg4nq/59NHwU2JN4T6sOVq6hSWaFNxwJlMV8soMag8AZi3QfUvzghRCJnuXH9rm7iDxS2Aq9l/F1u1AYnXgQ2Or2kM&reflink=article_copyURL_share
The level of doom on practically every media outlet regarding this virus is enormous. It’s as if we will never be normal again and everyone is destined to experience personal tragedy. The damage done is truly larger than the virus itself.
This guy should be inducted into the JJ HOF immediately…..
A shameless freeloader quarantined himself in a shuttered Connecticut restaurant, helping himself to thousands of dollars worth of food and drink during a four-day bacchanalian binge, police said.
Louis Angel Ortiz, 42, was arrested early Tuesday after allegedly pillaging a Cuban restaurant in downtown New Haven, which police believe he busted into Saturday through a side window.
Ortiz then proceeded to eat, drink or steal several thousand dollars worth of food and booze, including roughly 70 bottles of liquor, New Haven police said.
“Officers learned Ortiz helped himself over the course of four days to the restaurant’s food, liquor and beer,” police said in a statement Wednesday.
“In addition to eating and drinking at the restaurant, Ortiz removed beverages and property from the building,” officials added.
Ortiz was taken into custody after a manager stopped by the closed restaurant and saw someone sleeping inside with a bottle of rum, police said.
The eatery was identified by the Hartford Courant as Soul De Cuba Café, which serves up homestyle Cuban grub.
Officers arrested Ortiz, who was also caught on the restaurant’s surveillance video, nearby, police said.
“Management estimated the loss of food and beverage at several thousand dollars,” police said in a statement. “The loss includes an estimated 70 bottles of stolen or consumed liquor.”
Ortiz was charged with burglary, larceny and criminal mischief in connection with the alleged incident. He was also charged with failure to appear in court on an unrelated case, police said.
Ortiz, who was arraigned Wednesday, is due back in court on May 27, the Courant reports. He remained in custody Friday at the New Haven Correctional Center in lieu of $10,500 bail, record show.
As usual, grim asleep at the switch
Coronavirus Makes Polish Liquor Fly Off the Shelves as Hand Sanitizer
Spirytus Rektyfikowany is 96% alcohol. That makes it tough to swallow, but people figure it’ll kill about anything
By Cezary Podkul
A lot of store shelves have been picked clean of hand sanitizer, bread, paper towels and toilet paper.
Good for what ails you?
The powerful Polish liquor was in high demand during Poland’s Communist-era shortages. It has become a big seller in liquor stores during another era, the coronavirus one.
It serves two purposes: as a store of liquor in a lockdown, and an ingredient for homemade hand sanitizer.
In its most potent form, spirytus is 96% alcohol by volume, making it the strongest liquor available in most stores. Other distillers and some perfume makers are retooling their processes to produce spirits strong enough for hand sanitizer. Spirytus is already there.
“It borders on a miracle to find hand sanitizer around here,” said Elwira Ogórkiewicz, who couldn’t locate any in her hometown near the Polish seaport of Gdańsk. So she made her own, out of the same high-proof booze her mother-in-law uses to produce a fruity liqueur called nalewka. That is a blend of spirytus and fresh raspberries from Ms. Ogórkiewicz’s garden, steeped in sugar and aged a few months.
The hand sanitizer recipe is even simpler: Ms. Ogórkiewicz just mixed three parts spirytus to one part aloe gel and added a bit of lavender fragrance. She was done in a few seconds and shared her recipe in a live lesson on Facebook.
“It smells a bit like alcohol,” she said when she was done.
During Poland’s Communist era, the green-and-white labeled Spirytus Rektyfikowany (pronounced wreck-tyh-fiq-o-va-nyh) came from a state-owned monopoly. It was highly sought-after because besides nalewka, it could be diluted to make into homemade vodka, which is typically 40% alcohol by volume. A 750-milliliter bottle of spirytus can get you around two and a half bottles of vodka.
This made spirytus a hot commodity, especially during the Solidarity uprising in the early 1980s, when the Polish government declared martial law and rationed liquor along with everything else.
Polish immigrants in the U.S. see a connection between today’s store shortages and the empty shelves and their past lives. Then, if you wanted something, you probably had to make it yourself, which is what some are doing today.
For a fluid to work as a hand sanitizer it needs to be at least 60% alcohol, according to guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A large bottle of spirytus, typically mixed with aloe to keep skin from drying out, easily gets you there and leaves spare supplies for enjoyment. Most other liquors are only 40% to 60% alcohol.
Making one’s own hand sanitizer isn’t easy. The Food and Drug Administration recommends against it, saying the sanitizer can be ineffective if not made right.
Drinking spirytus undiluted takes courage. One online review described it as “death in a bottle with a hellish burning aftertaste.” Labels on some bottles warn that it is flammable.
Master distiller Aaron Barnes is turning the rum produced at his Timber Creek Distillery on Florida’s panhandle into hand sanitizer by upping the alcohol content of his spirits and following a World Health Organization recipe.
“Get the booze strong enough so it catches on fire, it kills everything,” Mr. Barnes said. Sales of hand sanitizer now outpace his rum sales, prompting Mr. Barnes to start work by 3 a.m. to meet demand.
Polish lore has it that spirytus can cure anything. Feel a cold coming? Have some spirytus. Sore throat? Same cure.
Leszek Chalimoniuk, 66, recently passed along that advice at a liquor store in New York’s heavily Polish Greenpoint neighborhood in Brooklyn. The Wrocław native said when he feels as if he is catching a cold, he boils some hot tea and spikes it with spirytus.
“I’m telling you, this is like magic. The best. Better than any aspirin, anything else,” said Mr. Chalimoniuk, a former blues drummer who played in New York for years.
When another customer came by to grab a bottle of Spirytus Rektyfikowany for making nalewka, she and Mr. Chalimoniuk reminisced about what it was like to live under communism.
“My mom always from nothing made something,” Mr. Chalimoniuk said.
Helen Walter-Cardinal and her boyfriend recently stocked up on Spirytus Rektyfikowany at a liquor store near New York University after failing to find Everclear at a store close to their home. Everclear is America’s answer to Poland’s Spirytus. It clocks in at 95% alcohol by volume and is also in high demand.
When the two found out the store sold the even-more-potent spirytus, Ms. Walter-Cardinal and her friend grabbed five bottles for $19.99 each.
“It’s the alcohol that goes the furthest,” she said. They used it as a mixer while obeying pandemic stay-at-home orders and tapped one bottle for use as a disinfectant.
In Greenpoint, Dunne’s Polemost Liquors was bustling with customers on a recent Friday afternoon. In March, the store sold 1,200 bottles of spirytus in two weeks.
“That’s above average—a lot above average,” said Peter Radziwon, the manager. He is down to selling only 200-ml flasks and calling distributors to get more.
The preferred brand among many Poles is Spirytus Rektyfikowany, the so-called “rectified spirit” popularized under Poland’s Communist-era booze monopoly. The monopoly was broken up and privatized after the fall of communism in 1989, and now various producers make their own brands of spirytus, often with green-and-white labeling that mimics the original.
Today, Polmos, the Warsaw-based producer of Spirytus Rektyfikowany, is sprinting to meet demand. Everything from getting cartons and labels to finding containerships for export has gotten harder, said Izabella Gazda, head of sales, import and export for Polmos.
“No one could have predicted such demand,” said Ms. Gazda, who added that she was sad the cause was a pandemic.
To meet demand, liquor stores are also stocking the other brands, such as Bak’s Spirytus or Spirytus Zbigniew. That left Mr. Chalimoniuk, the former blues drummer, holding two different bottles and wondering if he was getting the same thing.
“I’m getting two because then I can compare,” he said.
Juice, I’ve long had a theory that China was treating patients with Remdesivir that they are making illicitly. They were given some of the drug to test, I imagine once you have the compound and the information provided in order to get the permission to use it, it isn’t a huge stretch to figure out how to produce it. I just looked and the synthesis process is displayed on wikipedia for cripes sake! I really suspect China was able to reopen by heavily using Chloroquine and Remdesivir, my suspicion is both lower the viral shedding and make the disease less contagious.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/
Look at the positive lines in the state charts. Does anyone see any states peaking? And this is still with extremely limited testing. A friend of mine who has now gone through it, finally got access to a test FIFTEEN DAYS after he showed symptoms. If these charts are the results of physical separation. Then what the hell are they going to look like when people let their guard down, which they are definitely going to do.
Will be fun to watch from inside.
Solid recommendation, Lib. Just so you know, you’ve sent him a good amount of business over the years. I’ve used Carl (and Mike & Jazmin) for a refi back when he was at Mortgage Masters, a purchase in 2018 when he was at LoanDepot, and a refi recently now that he’s at Citizens. I also referred him to my brother who used him for a purchase this past January.
Libturd, reminiscing says:
April 17, 2020 at 10:42 am
When I sat with Carl my mortgage broker, he told me, “Your parents raised you right, but what they told you was completely wrong!”
Fast, trouble is here.
China’s government habitually fudges its economic growth data, so if it’s admitting to a 6.8% year-on-year contraction in the first three months of this year we can only guess at how bad the truth is. One thing is certain: The economic fallout from Covid-19 is only beginning for a country that claims to have the outbreak under control.
But China has unique problems in managing the economic damage. Beijing staved off recession after the 2008 financial panic by ramping up credit and public-works spending to extraordinary degrees. That playbook won’t work again.
Exports are only part of the problem as China’s trade partners grapple with their own recessions. Companies around the world will reconsider their reliance on Chinese manufacturers in supply chains. Political blowback over Beijing’s cover-up of the viral outbreak will compound the damage. Yet Covid-19 also is exposing domestic weaknesses even as China has been growing less dependent on exports.
The main vulnerability is the debt overhang from Beijing’s post-2008 stimulus. That stimulus pumped trillions of dollars in credit through the banks. Assets in the banking system grew 4.5 times between 2008 and 2020, to an almost unfathomable $41.8 trillion (yes, with a “t”) as of February, the Rhodium Group calculates.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pays-a-coronavirus-price-11587147252?emailToken=15cca86c9390684ea68a392ecc21de96sZHdhW/v8gqHCC1+qijt7bq7RiV1uK/V4WvClxJbvSHRqLtdZh6uqQ4rEXD7IVB9DVEu8ot3yW7wThWSXUiiWg%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Looks like they peaked and will never be what they were ( manufacturing capital of the world) as businesses move to diversify supply chains.
Ratio of Jobs Lost : Covid Deaths in NJ
718,000 : 4,287
167 : 1
For those that want to keep us mostly shut down until this virus is killed, what ratio would you start to say “we have to get back to work?”
Just on the testing. The PCR test for covid19 may give false-negative results of about 30% of the time, so the real numbers are definitely higher.
Reason being a quick initial swab sample may simply not always collect enough genetic material to provide an accurate test especially when taken by a very nervous medical practitioner, and then sometimes the labs do screw it up.
If symptoms suggest Covid-19 infection, you probably have it even if your test is negative. I know a few of a few people including one family related to me that had one person test positive and the rest of the family negative when they were all living in close quarters for the last month or longer. Once it is in your house everyone should get it unless the sick is truly isloated, which is very hard to do just ask Chris Cuomo. He could not resist leaving his basement quarantine in his for sale summer home and other may suffer for it like his wife.
Somewhere in quarantine:
https://youtu.be/lXvpmLS3N_E
A perfect explanation. It’s much worse than reported and what is getting reported is garbage.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1251271309432098816
My only question would be, will the numbers drop as the most susceptible to get it and/or pass away should go in the first few waves, or if they wont affect the number as they are in shelter in place and when they come out they will be exposed.
Chicago police setting up checkpoints to remind people of stay-at-home order
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-police-checkpoints-20200415-jug6ysdm65eopcqxep54tvqj4a-story.html
Chicago police are setting up checkpoints throughout the city both to remind people about the statewide stay-at-home order during the coronavirus outbreak and to “show a strong police presence” in areas hit by violence.
A department memo obtained by the Tribune calls them “seat belt safety and informational” checkpoints, and adds that the “goal of this mission is to engage the community in a positive and informative manner while providing a visible police presence in areas affected by violence.”
At least the Supreme Court can come together for this faulty ruling, 8-1.
The Supreme Court is ruling that police can pull over a car when they know only that its owner’s license is invalid, even if they don’t know who’s behind the wheel.
https://www.scribd.com/document/455385019/SCOTUS-Kansas-v-Glover#fullscreen&from_embed
I like the dissent by Sotomayor.
Fabius – you spewed plenty of pseudo information here and I am being nice….. I don’t think I am alone in spewing nonsense information. Nobody is perfect would you agree?
So you think someone here is going to listen to someone else pointing out some has-been TV personality nonsense?
I know you are not an total fool, so being respectful, raise the level or get bent.
joyce -love ya! Hope you and yours are well.
re: “police can pull over a car”
Reality is we cannot protest arrest, that is clear, only recourse is a shyster.. Make sure you are friends with them, as your only protection is silence. (read that old old book from Bill O’Reilly about cops).
My friend is Polish and gives me bottles of what he calls Polish lemomcello. Large alcohol content. I love the stuff! Can’t pronounce the name.
New Flash.
‘People are scared.’ Inside a federal prison in N.J. amid the coronavirus outbreak
Cytrynówka? Google is my best friend!
Ah Fcuk I watched that and laughed so hard beer went through my nose…
ExEssex says:
April 17, 2020 at 6:41 pm
Somewhere in quarantine:
https://youtu.be/lXvpmLS3N_E
Juice
this will go over a few posts is part due to to Grims one link maximum.
First the main point to take from that twitter link is that the scientific people are not communicating effectively with the public and the ones communicating the message do not understand the science. That is a real problem before you get to the Donnies Obfuscation.
“So you think someone here is going to listen to someone else pointing out some has-been TV personality nonsense?”
Fox News #FTW Hi Gary!
Posting Pseudo science, you really are projecting here.
Any PS I have posted has been as a contradiction to yours. For every “Here’s a study that shows hydroxychloroquine as the miracle cure!”, there is one that says “Yea, we started it, but their hearts started exploding”
If you shut it off, I will
Grim getting caught in moderation. Is there anyway to Whitelist users?
” is going to listen to someone else pointing out some has-been TV personality nonsense?”
Have you met Gary and F0x News?
When all this hydrchlorxx Garbage came up, my first reaction was “Who is making money from it!” and we found out pretty quickly which Pharma paid for access to play.
I bet Donnie said “this is my Wheelhouse, I got this I can sell it!” I think that’s when he headed for the podium. He’s sold crap like this before and he think s he can sell it up. https://www.statnews.com/2016/03/02/donald-trump-vitamin-company/
It hasn’t worked he’s losing the battle and the press conferences will disappear again.
Now the really big question, who gets the brass ring?
What is the brass ring? its the cure, the vaccine, the antidote, the precious!.
They are all fighting over it. Who will be first? “Pharma Boi” Martin Shkreli wants out of jail to help develop the cure! I’m sure he does. But I would say its not to help out humanity, its because whoever gets there first is going to clean up and vacuum up the cash.
You can call me cynical, I don’t have a problem with that, but are you calling me wrong?!
you really are projecting here.
Juice Box says:
April 17, 2020 at 8:13 pm
Fabius – you spewed plenty of pseudo information here and I am being nice….. I don’t think I am alone in spewing nonsense information
Do you know how to read?
The Supreme Court is ruling that police can pull over a car when they know only that its owner’s license is invalid, even if they don’t know who’s behind the wheel.
My father’s license got suspended when I was 18. My car was in his name. I kept getting pulled over left and right every friggin day. One time, I was following him and they pulled me over instead of him. Finally, I got sick of it and went to the courthouse and paid his parking ticket.
Everyone write this down so you can remember. Fabius is making the very bold prediction that if a pharmaceutical company creates an effective antidote, they’ll make a lot of money.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 17, 2020 at 10:36 pm
Now the really big question, who gets the brass ring?
What is the brass ring? its the cure, the vaccine, the antidote, the precious!.
They are all fighting over it. Who will be first? “Pharma Boi” Martin Shkreli wants out of jail to help develop the cure! I’m sure he does. But I would say its not to help out humanity, its because whoever gets there first is going to clean up and vacuum up the cash.
You can call me cynical, I don’t have a problem with that, but are you calling me wrong?!
Yes Joyce I know how to read. He is spewing nonsense and I am posting the same level of nonsense back at him. Is that clear?
Can I ask a question? Do you know how to admit you are wrong?
We had the discussion yesterday on CaPD and Imminent Lawlessness and its clear you don’t understand how that law works. Are you going to back down on that?
Yes Joyce
“Everyone write this down so you can remember. Fabius is making the very bold prediction that if a pharmaceutical company creates an effective antidote, they’ll make a lot of money.”
That is the exact point I’m making! They are not in it for Humanitarian reasons!
Do I need a bigger font, italics and flashing lights to get it though to you.
Ex. Thx found this
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xUsOJrw5PJE
Offered without comment. Make your own determination.
https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1251358260139089922
Fabius you do realize the Chinese decided to test Chloroquine based on our research, the NIH did on SARS. The drug has been around for ages it is well understood, it’s bio-availability is well known and understood, it was tested in vitro against SARS by the CDC(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/) and was effective in reducing viral load in human cells and the Chinese performed similar tests on SARS-CoV2(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078228/). It is an old drug no one is making big money on it, truth be told that is why they want to downplay effectiveness, much more money to be made with Remdesivir. NIAID has a long history working with the drug cos, Gilead in particular so follow the money. My suspicion is the HCL has a mild antiviral effect on SARS-COV2 where as Remdesivir has a very strong antiviral effect. Neither will help you when you immune system is in overdrive.
https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/photos/a.347907068635687/3669021739857520/?type=3&theater
Occupy Democrats
April 16 at 8:09 PM ·
This is from an ER nurse, Amy Elizabeth:
“I am posting, for once, about something other than my dog.
I have seen 4 patients die, 5 get intubated, 2 re-intubated, witnessed family consent to make 2 more patients DNRs, sweat my butt off during CPR, titrated so many drips to no avail, watched vent settings increase to no avail. We are exhausted and at a total loss.
All of this in two shifts in a row.
Some of you people have never done EVERYTHING you could to save someone, and watched them die anyway, and it shows.
I would have no problem if you fools worried about your “freedom” all went out and got COVID. If only you could sign a form stating that you revoke your right to have medical treatment based on your cavalier antics and refusal to abide by CDC and medical professionals’ advice. If you were the only people who got infected during your escapades to protest tyranny, great. But that’s sadly not how this works.
You wanna complain because the garden aisle is closed? If you knew a thing about gardening, you’d know it’s too early to plant in Michigan. Your garden doesn’t matter. If killing your plants would bring back my patients, I would pillage the shit out of your “essential” garden beds.
Upset because you can’t go boating…in Michigan…in April…in the cold-ass water? You wanna tell my patient’s daughter (who was sobbing as she said goodbye to her father over the phone) about your first-world problems?
Upset because you can’t go to your cottage up north? Your cottage…your second property…used for leisure. My coworkers can’t even stay in their regular homes. Most have been staying in hotels and dorms, not able to see their spouses or babies.
All of these posts, petitions online to evade “tyranny”, it’s all such bullshit. I’m sorry you’re bored and have nothing to do but bitch and moan. You wanna pick up a couple hours for me? Yeah, didn’t think so. I wouldn’t trust most of you with patient care, anyway. Not just because of the selfish lack of humanity your posts exude, but because most of those posts and petitions are so riddled with misspellings and grammatical errors, that it makes me question your cognitive capacity.
Shoutout to my coworkers, the real MVPs.”
I am a Brit and meet many Americans in my travels (in the good ol’ days before lockdown). I have found the vast majority to be intelligent, educated, courteous and well informed.
Was there a lobotomy epidemic in Michigan?
It’s funny how Fabisu was gone for the three years of the Trump presidency when things were cruising only to show up when the Wuhan Whammy emerges.
Sigh…. Solid month away, mentally and physically in great shape. Heading back to the Promised Land lol today….
Texas in the news for a limited reopening. FL reopening beaches in a modified schedule. TN loosening some retail, including farmers markets.
We still arresting rabbis at funerals?
Yeah thanks for that, Angry Amy ER.
And first and foremost thank you for your service. It must be exhausting and we are truly appreciative of what you do.
But we can do without the emotional bitching.
About that bitching…. Please explain in medical factual detail how my going to my REMOTE cabin impacts your patients health….
You disparage other people for their grammar yet fail to see your surrender of your reason and logic to raw emotion.
The sun rises in the east.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 17, 2020 at 11:05 pm
That is the exact point I’m making
The nursing home death information should be pretty easy to extrapolate by looking at the yoy deaths and adjusting for admissions. My guess is not as dire as thought. There are a lot of sick and dying in those homes already.
But I would laugh at anyone on the left complaining of disinformation if it weren’t so deranged. The left spent three plus years perpetrating hoaxes. When the virus was spreading they kept our government and intelligence community occupied with their unconstitutional impeachment push.
Have they ever come clean on any of that? No. Nor will they. We know the dnc bought the dossier. We know Biden is corrupt.
Yes Joyce I know how to read. He is spewing nonsense and I am posting the same level of nonsense back at him. Is that clear?
It was clear to everyone because he said it first, upfront.
Can I ask a question? Do you know how to admit you are wrong?
We had the discussion yesterday on CaPD and Imminent Lawlessness and its clear you don’t understand how that law works. Are you going to back down on that?
I’ll give you an example of someone answering the questions posed to them. Yes, I know how to admit I’m wrong. I’m not going to back down in this instance because I’m not wrong. You clearly haven’t read passed the headline. Read the whole cases.
Judicial interpretations and standards can be clarified; they can be expanded or curtailed or even replaced completely (stare decisive notwithstanding). Is separate but equal still valid doctrine?
You definitely struggle with the definition of “without comment.”
Fabius Maximus says:
April 18, 2020 at 12:08 am
Offered without comment. Make your own determination.
Hi there to all, the contents present at this web site are actually
amazing for people experience, well, keep up the good work fellows.
I hope that never again will Americans allow a group of experts take control of the entire country based on some modeled projections that create fearful scenarios. And perhaps understand that other than some very hard physical science models, projections are very error prone. Otherwise, this will just be a warmup for the ecofascist experts.
Projections and forecast modeling has always been crap…
I’ve done my share of “modeling” in molecular dynamics systems modeling. We know the laws of physics. We have an exact solution for the hydrogen atom. That doesn’t mean we can predict what will happen in a box of 1000 water molecules. Forecasting the weather is very inaccurate beyond 5 days and gets worse as you go farther out in time. The idea that anyone has the knowledge or the inputs to forecast the global climate 100 years from now is completely laughable.
With respect to the numbers here…the inputs are crap. We don’t know how many asymptomatic people have it. There were a lot of people who couldn’t get tests when they needed it. Being wrong about the peak 10 days off is a huge margin of error when we are 5 weeks into this lockdown. We have to do it for the sake of trying to make prudent decisions, but this is far from an exact science.
BRT,
In 30 years of global investment management I’ve seen so many economic, financial, political “experts” and their models fail to predict accurately, there are very few predictions i trust. Greta would have us locked down for 30 years, if she could, or at the very least impoverish the world by banning or taxing much of the world’s current capital assets. All because of some “expert” model which hasn’t been very accurate. And this model takes 30 years not 30 days to be proven wrong, but they update it every few years to fit the past better. That’s a classic wall street wrong model adjustment tactic, BTW, which I saw through by age 25.
Fear mongering by experts competing for the scariest model to win fame and power is the new version of Pascal’s Wager
In New York State 89% of Covid-19 deaths have 1 or more comorbidities
https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/americas-junk-food-diet-makes-us-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus/
And, it’s an inherent conflict of interest when the more doom you predict leads to more funding for you personally and your general academic field. I would love for them to publish their models for New Jersey. Do they account for the entire town of Lakewood acting like idiots? Do they account for apartment parties in Jersey City?
It’s a rule. When you turn on the radio in Southern California you must hear Sweet Child O’ Mine within 15 minutes or the whole place spins in a time warp back to the eighties. GenX rulez
https://youtu.be/F17CYqiFzWo
Any one know if there are siding companies do repairs , flashing?
Fab – I am confused by your posts about the vaccine. Are you saying that you have issue with the inventor/innovator/producer of the vaccine making a profit?
You want the vaccine produced, at risk and for free, with no profit motivation? Because this deserves a humanitarian response?
There are some pretty fundamental concepts about risk/incentive that are not easily overcome. The desire to be compensated for your efforts is pretty ingrained in human biology. You don’t see a lioness going out on a hunt and delivering her prey to the den of another’s off-spring. We eat what we kill.
In New Jersey, protesting is not illegal (yet), but organizing a protest is:
https://nj1015.com/protesters-make-noise-in-trenton-as-officials-say-virus-cases-leveling-off/
I get what Nurse Amy is saying and thank her for her sacrifice, this is a life and death fight for some and the sacrifice made by medical professionals is great, they are putting themselves and risk and working very long hard hours to save lives. Even if the lock down were to end many would not go back to life as usual, I don’t need to go to the office and I wouldn’t want to put my young children(2&5) at risk, not really worried as much about myself but rather them.
To leftwing’s point the restrictions make no sense, my father in-law is retired and lives on a lake in MI alone. He has an 18ft bass boat who would it harm for him to take his boat fishing or just to cruise around the lake? The other issue is the restriction are quite frankly not legal, anyone with respect for the law and the freedoms granted by the constitution should realize this pandemic does not rise to the level that permits the level of government intervention intervention. This isn’t MERS or even SARS, it isn’t Ebola, we are talking about death rates well below 10%, probably below 1%. There is no magic bullet, no treatment immediately in sight, we cannot lock down until there is a vaccine that is a year away at best never at worst. The reality is people will get this disease and people will recover and some will die. The original argument was to flatten the curve, we needed to buy some time to prepare, lock down will need to end shortly and should be done slowly and cautiously. Senseless(Illegal!Illegitimate!) regulation does nothing to help the situation and only can come with unintended consequences(see PA closing liquor stores!).
But the complaint isn’t about gardening or boating or second homes or boredom. Those are an annoyances, what people are really upset about is their livelihood. My brother-in and mother in-law both lost their jobs. People are getting furloughed or salary reductions or losing their jobs even those working in fields that can be done remotely. When you have no customers or your customers have no customers business cannot proceed as usual. Every company knows this and is going hard into capital preservation mode so they can survive reduced revenues, those facing no revenues certainly will be put out of business. There are not many businesses that can survive a sustained period of no or very low revenue and this will permeate the economy. People have bills most do not have adequate savings, the amount of stress this is putting on them is tremendous.
Medical experts are just that, what they do not have is an understanding of the economic impact how many lives will be shortened and people will die from increased poverty. What will happen to our supply chains if this persists? Government actions have unintended consequences and we are already seeing countries hording materials, blocking exports, we cannot go down this path, it will exacerbate the suffering.
3b I used these crazy Albanians. They were cheap and fast but the quality of the work varied from fair to good. A1 dependable in Garfield talk to Edison, I’d recommend them based on the price(they know what they are doing and will underbid pretty much anyone), but be sure to get it in writing I found they did a really good job on the first job, they will try to sell you subsequent work don’t do it. I’ve found that most contractors work this way they do a great job to build a relationship with the customer but then on subsequent jobs they try to make a bigger profit by charging more or cutting corners.
The path to being insanely rich by finding a vaccine is the best hope we have. When Bernie said there are people that are trying to figure out how to get rich off of this crisis and said “there is something wrong with that”, I flipped. That’s our solution. If you could pay one individual $3 billion dollars to solve this crisis, we would do it tomorrow and we would all be better off.
The reality is…we must reopen by June. They need to get factories up and running to produce as much PPE, testing reagents, tests and everything else. That’s where you have the most breathing room prior to the temperature dropping again in September.
There are too many unintended consequences of a shelter in place this long. All the essential items we produce will not be produced at the rate that we need. What we are doing now is not sustainable. The federal government outline of a plan is basically the realest expectation in terms of production. Workplaces all over will have to wear n95 masks and gloves. I’m not sure if bars and restaurants will have a shot at actually being open. Schools….I’m not really confident on that one. If you’ve ever sat through a lunch duty at a school, you would know that kids of all ages (17 included) have no hygiene, leave their trash all over the place…chuck food at each other for 30 minutes straight.
Healthcare forever seen as the villain is now looked to re: saving the populace.
Commissioner of the Department of Health, Judy Persichilli, said at the press conference today that the covid-19 deaths reported at LTC facilities include those that tested positive, those tested with results pending and those with respiratory symptoms that were not tested.
Murphy is a piece of shit.
Was just looking at the testing requirements for the CCM location in Morris County.
Did you know that in order to receive a test, the patient MUST have a driver’s license or other valid form of ID?
Where is the left to protect the minorities that are at risk and can’t find or get to a DMV? That’s the argument against voter ID right? Doesn’t this particularly target low-income and minority citizens by requiring ID?
A friends parent is in assisted living in northern NJ, in her 80s and has dementia. She came down with Covid19 and is now recovered.
boken – Show proof of NJ residency is what is required and in the case of Morris etc the county run sites want to make sure you live in that county etc. A utility bill will work too. If you don’t have a fever you will be turned away.
At this point there is plenty of private testing for it, I would not go to the cattle call at these testing site.
Not to speak too badly of my friend and siblings but they could have taken their mom out of the center. There are 4 children in that family, they all know the risks but chose to leave their mother in the facility. Same is true for many families I guess.
I have spare bedroom, I have offered it to any family member who might need it. One cousin who is now furloughed from an advertising job in NYC, he is not renewing his apt lease this month and is going to go live in his mother’s vacation home in the Catskills for now. I would not want to be there ever, there is no work the locals are yokel and well a gay man up there by himself might be quite isolated.
Persichilli said previously we are all going to get Covid19 every last one of us so she is a hack. 3% and 11% get the Flu every year. This is not much different and the science will prove them wrong including both symptomatic and asymptomatic.
Again…..three sons and not one willing to take in dear old mom for a short while even? Would you leave mom in a burning house or in a war zone too?
“The family has since learned their mother is down the hall from infected patients, and for the moment in a room by herself, he said. But that may change if space was tight, he added.
Yesterday, a nurse told Martel’s mother two people on her floor had died. “She called us in a state of complete panic at almost midnight, hysterically crying,” he said.”
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/in-nursing-home-where-33-died-she-has-no-coronavirus-symptoms-her-kids-are-petrified.html
Juice Americans treat their elderly very poorly. They set the example for their children, and their children will do the same.
Friends in China tell me that foreigners aren’t allowed to go into places, black people are being thrown in the streets, and anyone who is from Wuhan is getting beat up and yelled at to go back where they came from. That stuff plus locking people up probably helped. Plus massive lying about infections and deaths. Its a pity that with all that cracking down domestically, China didn’t prevent Wuhan elites from flying out globally for their Chinese New Year holiday vacations, which I suspect did a lot of damage.
My will is going to have stipulations about putting me in a home.
Homeboken,
Widespread testing, including undocumented people is to protect everyone. It is a danger to society as a whole not to test everyone no matter their status. This is a public safety issue. Not a political issue.
Jcer: thanks for the information those Albanians are a crazy bunch is right and can be intimidating.
Gary,
I took a long break from here when Donnie started putting kids in cages. It wasnt so much what Donnie did, it was the reaction from some of the more moderate in here who were OK with it. There are a few here that need to look to their conscience on that one.
I had a chat with Grim a few years back on how toxic this place had become. We used to have some great GTGs back in the day. I wouldn’t feel safe at one now given some of the comments that were coming out of people.
Joyce, the reason I know I’m right is that Eddie Ray showed up yesterday.
Eddie Ray , my nemesis, my Newman. For all his faults, he is pretty good at this law thing. If I was wrong he would have jumped on me like CoVID on grandma.
Fake News,
You don’t need to measure admissions in elder facilities. 33 in one place is probably a 10% turnover in less than a month.
Garry that place in Park Ridge is close to you, why not go round and explain MAGA greatness to those that are left.
Homeboken,
I have a problem with Big Pharma in general. Lets be clear, they are not in this for humanitarian reasons. They are franticly searching for a vaccine, not to help the world, but the earlier they get something out, the more they get from the big pot of cash at the end.
The get billions of free research very year, and take 100% of the profit made. Yet, we still have to pay them every year to make a flu vaccine.
Maybe they find a cure, or maybe this is like HIV where 40 years on we have no vaccine and spread was managed by Social engineering, treatment protocols and symptom management.
Emirates is giving passengers rapid coronavirus tests before flights that produce results in minutes
https://www.businessinsider.com/emirates-tests-passengers-coronavirus-covid19-flights-2020-4?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=sf-bi-cars&fbclid=IwAR05FA1DC6KXxnyECeJuQQTrmeKjDTQ4Cly91bSdbC8qab3nysmzKqgCPBg
Emirates, the UAE-based airline, is testing passengers for COVID-19 on flights from its Dubai hub as part of an effort to contain the spread of the virus.
Passengers on a flight bound for Tunisia underwent a blood test administered by the Dubai Health Authority, the airline said in a statement. Results were available within 10 minutes.
The airline said the test was performed near the check-in area.
The airline described the testing as successful, but it is not immediately available for widespread use.
Quite the impotent response. I seem to recall you arguing with him endlessly about various legal topics in the past. Well actually, it does make sense. You continued to argue then as now even though you’re wrong.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 18, 2020 at 7:47 pm
Joyce, the reason I know I’m right is that Eddie Ray showed up yesterday.
Eddie Ray , my nemesis, my Newman. For all his faults, he is pretty good at this law thing. If I was wrong he would have jumped on me like CoVID on grandma.
Lets be clear, they are not in this for humanitarian reasons. They are franticly (sic) searching for a vaccine, not to help the world, but the earlier they get something out, the more they get from the big pot of cash at the end.
Who are you talking to? No one is arguing this point.
The get billions of free research very year, and take 100% of the profit made.
Correct. This is bullsh1t
None of homeless who tested positive at big SF shelter showed serious coronavirus symptoms
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/None-of-homeless-who-tested-positive-at-big-SF-15206152.php
None of the 93 homeless people who tested positive for the coronavirus in San Francisco’s largest shelter showed serious symptoms of the disease, lending urgency to the need for widespread public testing and emphasizing the importance of “contact investigations” the city is now ramping up.
LA is putting some pos. Tested Homeless in Motel 6.
What would Tom Bodett say?
“What does the world look like “post corona”? We’ve been spending a ton of time thinking about where the puck is headed so that, similar to hockey, a bunch of white guys can make more money.”
Scott Galloway
Who knew a neo-nazi could be such a snowflake needing a safe space from microaggression?
Fabius Maximus says:
April 18, 2020 at 7:43 pm
Gary,
I took a long break from here when Donnie started putting kids in cages. It wasnt so much what Donnie did, it was the reaction from some of the more moderate in here who were OK with it. There are a few here that need to look to their conscience on that one.
I had a chat with Grim a few years back on how toxic this place had become. We used to have some great GTGs back in the day. I wouldn’t feel safe at one now given some of the comments that were coming out of people.
I had a chat with Grim a few years back on how toxic this place had become.
And yet, here you are.
Oblama putting kids in cages:
https://dailycaller.com/2018/06/19/photos-obama-immigration-detention-facilities/
“The nursing home death information should be pretty easy to extrapolate by looking at the yoy deaths and adjusting for admissions. My guess is not as dire as thought. There are a lot of sick and dying in those homes already.”
Congrats. You win the absolutely dumbest comment of the month award. Due you even have a clue what’s happening in these places. Try to place someone in one of these homes to realize the turnover is way lower than you could have ever guessed. The numbers we are hearing are sickening. The first home she was in, which never had an empty dead now is half empty. This thing is running rampant through nursing homes because they pay their workers spit and the tenants can’t practice good hygiene on their own. In most homes, half of the staff simply stopped coming. It’s simply not worth risking their lives for the low wages.
I really do hope everyone on the right keeps protesting and are the first to return to work. I really do. Good luck finding masks and gloves when you do. I suppose the states should be in charge of this as well?
I wonder if after Pearl Harbor was bombed, FDR suggested states build their own battleships?
Suspect you’ll see the death rates for cardiovascular, diabetes/metabolic, pulmonary fall dramatically in NJ. Especially given the prevalence of co-morbidities and the dramatic impact in assisted living/nursing homes – 41% of covid deaths in NJ are associated with nursing homes.
When we’re through, it will be clear that nursing homes were where the administrations dropped the ball, a complete miss. They focused largely on restricting general populations, and disproportionately focusing on the young, when they should have been welding the doors shut on nursing homes when we first heard about Washington State.
It wasn’t closing the borders, it wasn’t restricting social mobility sooner. It was locking down the nursing homes.
This thing is running rampant through nursing homes because they pay their workers spit and the tenants can’t practice good hygiene on their own. In most homes, half of the staff simply stopped coming. It’s simply not worth risking their lives for the low wages.
Nursing home isn’t a sterile ICU or surgery suite, man. Don’t hold them to that standard or nobody would be able to afford to be in one. It blew through government run VA homes just as quickly as it did the privately owned ones. The prisons did a bit better – we’re not going to advocate running these things like prisons.
Like I said, if anyone wants to scream about a blatant, unforgivable miss – it’s nursing homes.
Ground Zero in the US was a nursing home … and yet nobody did shit about other nursing homes.
Yet the media and the state governors continued to propagate the myth that this disease was discriminately impacting the “young and healthy”. Except, it wasn’t, and still isn’t.
So now it’s too fucking little, too fucking late.
But hey, lets close the beaches and hiking trails. That’ll make us all feel good.
The most recent estimate from the CDC, from Friday (shocker), is that they expect 1/3 of all US COVID-19 deaths to be Nursing Homes, which means in reality it will exceed 1/2, maybe even more.
Still we see no age-based restrictions being posted by any state government.
The one thing we know will absolutely work to reduce hospitalizations and deaths. Restrict mobility of 65+ with obesity, cardovascular disease, diabetes, or pulmonary disease.
Nobody going to touch that one with a ten foot pole.
It almost seems like recent closures have more to do with some kind of absurd puritanical restriction of having fun right now. Social distancing clearly not enough, you now have to be prohibited from any public showing of fun or enjoyment at all.
How dare you enjoy a walk through the woods, or sitting by a lake.
Hoboken police chief lashes out at the arrogance of Hoboken residents riding their bicycles in the midst of the pandemic.
What the fuc%? This may be one of the most absurd pieces of bullshit I’ve heard yet – far dumber than anything that’s come out of Trump’s mouth.
Covid is indiscriminate – it kills everyone – Myth myth myth myth.
As of April 17 – CDC data – Nationally
COVID Deaths – below 35yo – 129 deaths – 0.98% of all COVID-19 Deaths
COVID Deaths – above 64yo – 11,961 deaths – 91.1% of all COVID-19 Deaths
Didn’t I tell you guys this two or three weeks ago?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-neimanmarcus-bankruptcy-exclusive-idUSKBN2210CW
Couple others are right behind, you’ll be surprised.
Have to love human nature. Always want what they can’t have. Before this virus, you couldn’t get most people to enjoy a walk outside. Just glued to their tablets. Now they get what they want; no going outside, just stay home, and they cry mercy.
I have never seen this many people go on walks outside before. Before they shut down my local park with walking paths, I have never seen so many people in that park.
grim says:
April 19, 2020 at 7:34 am
It almost seems like recent closures have more to do with some kind of absurd puritanical restriction of having fun right now. Social distancing clearly not enough, you now have to be prohibited from any public showing of fun or enjoyment at all.
How dare you enjoy a walk through the woods, or sitting by a lake.
On the stock market…my take.
Retail did not cause that drop. Big money pulled out, shorted, and then bought back in with short money driving it back up. Example; Bill Ackman. Made a shit ton shorting, and put it all back in the market.
There is no blood in the street in the stock market. All I see is irrational euphoria with a belief that the stock market is the safest place to put your money long term because it eventually always goes up. Aka buy the dip. Have a feeling people are going to get killed.
Just how I see it, but could be totally wrong.
Crazy thing, economy can bust, but as long as people don’t pull out and stop contributing through to their 401k…the market doesn’t have to fall. It does not have to relate to the economy, it only relates to the psychology of the market participants especially the big boys. Market participants don’t abandon current pricing, it’s not going to drop no matter how bad the economy is in comparison to price. If people are okay with holding and ignoring the market, it really might not drop in relation to the economy.
Lib – Are you implying a hot war with China? that is something new.
I wonder if after Pearl Harbor was bombed, FDR suggested states build their own battleships?
One last post on this virus.
Why don’t people appreciate this virus for what it is? A blessing from god. Why? We started to have such busy lives that most people had no time for their family. Appreciate this time to spend VALUABLE time with your family and loved ones. You will never get it again.
If you lost your job, use this time period to gain VALUABLE new skills to get a better job in the economy.
So stop trying to rush back to being such a busy bee that ignores family and opportunities to improve your self.
Ying and yang applies to everything and anything.
Grim – RE Nursing homes:
You are spot on. The markets identified this a few weeks ago as well. Try to get a Fannie/Freddie loan on a assisted living, elderly, skilled nursing facility, etc. UW standards for those deals got really conservative. Student housing – same thing.
Pumps – tell that to any one of the 22 million Americans that just lost their job. These aren’t corporate layoffs with severance packages. If you lost your job in the last 4 weeks, you are very likely to be extremely economically vulnerable.
Those are the people protesting. They want to feed their families.
One last rapid fire post –
I am interested in the views of my Dem supporters bc there is something I can’t shake:
Tell me why Michelle Obama will not be picked as the VP? If the Dem’s really want to win the election, having Obama 2.0 seems to be the best chance for taking down Trump.
I also think that Michelle on the ticket will help bigly down-ballot. The house would stay blue and the senate may even flip. Thoughts?
Are you not getting extra pay on top of unemployment? A lot of these people are making more money than working. Tell them to be smart, stop bitching, and take advantage of the situation by learning a skill to improve their life. Play the hand you were dealt and move on. Instead, wasting time protesting like f’ing losers.
Where is the recognition that the economy would be severely impacted by this virus with or without stay at home orders?
I am all for lifting the stay at home orders if done in a responsible manner. Experts agree that testing is the foundation of being able to do so in the safest way. Why isn’t the federal government making testing a national priority? Where is the plan to hire and train contact tracers? If you want to protest something, let’s organize a rally in support of getting a national plan for testing and contact tracing.
Says the guy with the tenured, never at risk for being fired, union job.
Look – a job loss is devastating, if you have never lost your income, then you simply don’t understand. Temp unemployment boost will help but it will also run out eventually.
Just suck it up sounds like something a landlord would say to his tenant. Oh wait…
“Deadconomy says:
April 19, 2020 at 8:46 am
Are you not getting extra pay on top of unemployment? A lot of these people are making more money than working. Tell them to be smart, stop bitching, and take advantage of the situation by learning a skill to improve their life. Play the hand you were dealt and move on. Instead, wasting time protesting like f’ing losers.”
You are right and I’m wrong. Fair enough. It’s just funny how you have to attack the individual to make your point.
We all have choices. In the end, that’s what makes us who we are. Life isn’t perfect, but try to make the best choices for yourself. Make a choice to get out of that dead end job where they sacrifice you when it’s good for them. You also could continue to be lazy, not learn new skills, take the easy way out now, but be at the mercy of these employers when it gets bad again. No right choice, but don’t bitch later on if you don’t like the effect of your choice for not improving your value to employers.
Age bracket death stats for NJ as of 4/17, confirmed lab tested cases.
80+ 46.3%
65‐79 32.3%
50‐64 16.2%
30‐49 4.6%
18‐29 < 1%
5‐17 0%
0‐4 0%
https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf
30 year – Private labs do 85% U.S. coronavirus tests, the PCR test nasal swab collected and is sometimes put on an airplane and shipped to a lab. It takes time.
The new 5-minute test for COVID-19 from Abbott Laboratories that is for Doctors offices and Urgent Care centers etc. YOU REALLY think your local primary care doctor wants COVID19 patients coming to his office? I had the conversation already, my doc won’t be doing this test and if I want the anitbody test well I have to wait until Lab Corp offers it and I have to go there to get the blood drawn.
Guess what Lab Corp won’t be doing it, bad for their waiting room cattle call testing, they want the doctors to collect the nasal swabs and blood in their offices.
So guess what, you are going to have to pay $$ to get it or go to the cattle call at the satate and country run sites.
This is fair.
We got emails from our primary care physicians explicitly telling us not to come to their offices if we suspected covid – and to utilize telemedicine visits instead.
Juice Box,
All I said was there needs to be a national plan. You have made it precisely clear that this is necessary and stated some of the reasons why. And it needs to be free and available to all!
Perhaps Amazon will be the first to deploy mass testing.
30 year we already have more testing capacity than anyone else. Issues is they are not trying to overwhelm the testing system with hypochondriacs. In the first few days of the drive thru testing it was chaos and they had to turn away everyone that did not have a fever or cough, a vast majority of those actually tested were not sick, even though they claimed to have a fever and a cough!
Rite Aid is now doing drive thru testing in NJ and it’s free as in taxpayer funded, right by you I think Waldwick Rite Aid store, on Franklin Turnpike, with more opening. BioReference Laboratories will receive the samples and then provide will provide results in about seven days.
You still need to be sick.
https://www.projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19/?utm_source=riteaid&utm_medium=covid-19&utm_campaign=website
Random anitbody test in Boston suburb 1/3 tested had antibody.
Nearly one third of 200 Massachusetts residents were infected with antibodies linked to the novel coronavirus, according to a pilot study.
Physicians at the Massachusetts General Hospital said they found evidence of widespread COVID-19 exposure in the city of Chelsea.
Chelsea, located just north of Boston, had the state’s rate of coronavirus infections at 1,900 cases per 100,000 residents.
Researchers collected drops of blood from residents in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday after advertising the study.
Of the 200 voluntary participants, 64 had antibodies created by their immune systems to fight the coronavirus.
I think the unemployed should have married alpha female, received free granny equity and coasted along..
Juice Box,
In order to succeed at getting the population to trust it is safe to go out, covid and antibody testing must be widespread. There must be contact tracing on all positive tests for covid-19. Without this there will certainly be more social distancing and stay at home orders. This will do great harm to the economy. People will no longer trust and they will be reticent to return to life as we once knew it. This isn’t political.
It’s becoming more obvious that the GOP intends to make China a focal point of this election. And I think that has merit. It is also where Biden is the weakest.
It’s time for the DNC to start working on a new candidate. Joe had a rough road to how already, with China at the forefront, he has no chance
Bidens biggest weakness, aside from the advancing cognitive decline.
Grim, I won’t be surprised. Retailers fail even during good times, even more during downturns, and this is an unprecedented shock. Retailers and restaurants have a lot of rent to pay plus thin margins. The shutdown will put lots of companies into bankruptcy. I just wonder how bad it will be in private equity land where mediocre businesses got levered up and financially engineered for cash outs and may have low safety cushions. It may depend on how much private equity money is available on the sidelines to bail out “invest in” those companies.
In the past, economic downturns have revealed financial leverage vulnerabilities nobody realized existed.
Is safe to go out? For who? Young people are largely unaffected. Everyone under 60 should get back to work unless you are at risk do comorbidity meaning two or more chronic diseases. High blood presses and diabetes? Here is a check and a voucher for food delivery. Stay home forever.
You do know there still is no HIV vaccine. Chances are there may never be one for Covid19.
Reopen the country.
Make the hospitals in Dallas and Houston look like the ones in our area.
My three hospital friends are past exhaustion, regardless of the enormous pay they are being showered with. The mental trauma itself is bad enough. Add the risk of getting infected, watching an occasional coworker die and being stuck separated from their own families and it’s really just terrible for all of them. No amount of hero bullsh1t will make much of a dent. As a matter of fact, one of them called me during that TV show last night pissed off about it. He said there is no “together” in this. He said, have them perform in the hospital among the overfull morgue or the room after room of dying parents and then maybe he will support it. I wasn’t sure what to say, so I didn’t say anything.
The truth is, we could probably start opening the country in the areas that have dropped from peak. At best, NY and NJ are at the apex. The rest of the country will watch their infection rate explode upward, like it did here before we exercised some caution, the moment we open things up. Just watching the protesters without their masks and most of the beach-goers not practicing separation tells me this. Heck, I’ve seen few to no people (including the Master Of Panic Phil Murphy) even take off their mask correctly. Then you see 9 out of 10 people driving their cars with their masks on.
30-year is correct. The lack of leadership on this is astounding. Preaching hope (we’ll be done by Easter) is complete bullsh1t and actually works against you. Especially when your hopes become falsehoods, time after time. There is still no plan besides letting pro athletes compete in empty stadiums. And this will actually serve to keep more people inside because we will ALL watch since we are out of new series to binge on. Of course, this will be short-lived, the moment the first team infects each other, which will happen probably in practice, long before the first pitch or free throw. But this is what passes for leadership when all that really matters to you is perception and ratings.
How hard could it be to make some masks! How hard could it be to make some gloves! How hard could it be to make some tests? For the record, it is nearly 6 months since the Feds knew about this virus. And what the fcuk is our military doing?Get those people involved!
Yeah, it’s in the state’s hands.
Might as well go ahead and open the country with no plan. We see how well that worked in our area where NYC and NJ alone will have more deaths than the average number for the entire country would in the average flu season. I’m beginning to think the models might be correct again. Why not? If New York and NJ will have a minimum of 50K deaths before this is over (almost at 30K now). And NY/NJ makes up less than 30 million of the 330 million peeps in the US. Well then, open up the rest of the country and you will need to multiply 50K by 9. That’s 450K.
Have at it protesters. Make sure you all sit close together with your kids when they come home from school. Hug them tight. It’s for the economy.
Don’t worry though, I’m sure that 450 K must be close to the number of people who die of the average flu. Trump told me that would be the case and that it was contained and nothing to be concerned with. Certainly HE wasn’t. His ratings are the highest ever!
Abnot released a new antibody test that is supposed to be 99% accurate, testing is ramping up.
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/univ-washington-ramps-abbott-labs-really-fantastic-test-covid-19-antibodies/
AND none if it matters if you are at risk, there is no vaccine to give you immunity. There may never be one.
Libturd – there is no vaccine. We cannot stay home forever.
Homeboken,
I don’t think you get what is happening with the dems. Obama=Clinton=Biden= Boomer Locust Corporate Dems aka Republican Lite aka Rockefeller Republican in Dems Clothing.
What Sanders and Warren represented is a revulsion and total rejection of it by any one younger than 50 or so.
So you can put Michelle there, it will excite the blacks -which are going to vote democrats anyway. But anyone else is staying home. Better an incompetent at being a crook entertaining joker, then a competent crook boring napping joker.
homeboken says:
April 19, 2020 at 8:46 am
One last rapid fire post –
I am interested in the views of my Dem supporters bc there is something I can’t shake:
Tell me why Michelle Obama will not be picked as the VP? If the Dem’s really want to win the election, having Obama 2.0 seems to be the best chance for taking down Trump.
Grim,
Everyone saw it at the beginning, ergo – the Boomer Remover jokes, but then it became not PC.
grim says:
April 19, 2020 at 7:21 am
Like I said, if anyone wants to scream about a blatant, unforgivable miss – it’s nursing homes.
Ground Zero in the US was a nursing home … and yet nobody did shit about other nursing homes.
Yet the media and the state governors continued to propagate the myth that this disease was discriminately impacting the “young and healthy”. Except, it wasn’t, and still isn’t.
Pumps,
I checked the realtor.com for Wayne and the first page is full of price reductions.. The beginning of the end… of Route 3/46??
Has anyone even asked Faucci the hard questions about a vaccine? It’s nothing like HIV he will say (a misdirection for sure) since there is no HIV vaccine, and he would know he spent tens of billions and 4 decades trying to develop one.
Covid19 enters out outer layer of cells (the epithelial cells) finding a way to neutralize the Covid19 virus “outside” of the body is very difficult. Perhaps Grim’s Yerba Santa?
Our only way out if this is proper treatments need to be fully developed, and perhaps herd immunity at a young age.
Why would I not want to have today’s’ version of a chicken pox party for Covid19, knowing children are really not at risk?
Chickenpox parties were popular before the introduction of the varicella vaccine in 1995.
Juice,
You can take measured steps to open up the economy. But not with our current POTUS and his lack of leadership. Get it?
Why would you trust a single thing that comes out of his mouth? I haven’t watched him since the Easter comment. Honestly. Not one single minute. And the entire country would be better to follow my lead.
And I could really care less who runs the country for the next 4 years because it couldn’t possibly be worse than Trump. Irregardless of political belief.
Juice, I got chicken pox through one of those parties. I don’t have that many memories from when I was less than five years old. I do remember sh1tting in the bath tub because my entire family was sick with it at the same time and we needed four more toilets to deal with it. It was horrible. Chills, non-stop diarrhea, high fevers, vomiting. It was when I was first introduced to the chalky yuckiness of Kaopectate.
Lock up the 65+ year olds and let the rest of us get back to life.
“Those are the people protesting. They want to feed their families.”
Have you seen these protests. They are MAGA rallies being pushed out there by the moneyed-right comfortably working from home. These are not a bunch of unemployed people just protesting to get back to work but the usual Trump drones that follow whatever they think supports him and still believe this is all a hoax.
Maybe we can turn the stadiums into some kind of geriatric internment camps.
All the rich white boomers will turn into germaphobic/agoraphobic versions of Howard Hughes or Michael Jackson – so maybe they’ll just do it all themselves.
Libturd – there is no vaccine. We cannot stay home forever.
Looking at the data, there appears absolutely to be a “vaccine” – don’t be obese, especially obese with cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.
Maybe when we can go to a store to pick up some Purell and disinfectant wipes will be the time to start discussing everyone going back to work. Does anyone know any store stocked?
Where can I get a surgical mask? And no, we don’t just want everyone to be running around with their homemade t-shirt masks and bandanas wrapped around their face and consider that we are ready to open.
If all the f*cking evangelicals weren’t so fat, we’d be hearing that this virus was a gift from god, punishment for gluttony and sloth. But I guess it’s only a gift from god when it effects groups you don’t agree with.
Biden will do just fine on China.
https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1251612252647624705
Every day more and more moderate Republicans are backing Joe.
A rigged election or no election is Donnies only hope.
Surely our lord and savior sweet baby Jesus wouldn’t condemn chicken fried chicken and pecan pie.
e:geriatric internment camps.
Was at Whole Foods yesterday based on the way they still are out shopping the geriatric will not go willingly, and this is the rich left I am speaking of our Governor’s neighbors.
Would it be so bad if every boomer that denied the Aids virus in the 80s died from covid?
Finally some nice weather to go do some yard work. I lost a big branch on my wonderful willow tree in the storm this week. I hope the neighbors don’t mind me blasting some tunes while I run the chain saw.
Don’t you worry Fab. If Trump looks like he is going to lose, he will TRY to figure out a way to cancel the election like he tried to fire the FED. Mark my words. He is like a mentally damaged sociopath. He has no conscience, yes. But all he cares about it is social attention. From the number of people who watched his inauguration, to his viewership while presiding over the worst economy our country has ever witnessed since the 1930s.
Honestly. Not one single minute. And the entire country would be better to follow my lead.
I could not disagree with this more strongly. It’s the same as saying “who cares if Biden had dementia, his unelected cabinet and burrecrats are the ones really calling the shots”
I disagree with a lot of what Trump is saying but I know that bc I watch him say it. I can’t rely on any media outlet to make my decision for me. Not CNN, not Fox, not MSNBC, not NPR.
Listen to the power, the decision makers and make up your own mind.
When to open back up? When the numbers stop plateauing and drop significantly. At that point the front line needs some time to rest, reset and restock for the next wave.
All those susceptible who have been staying in, who would have got it if little Jimmies school stayed open and he was actually exposed.
We shut the doors early and still got hit hard. For those states still open, their Rapture is coming and they are going to get their answer.
Testing is critical at this point and Donnie is failing badly. Tracking is moot. Its a bit too late.
Did Typhoid Mary bake the Pecan Pie?
My willow lost a large branch too. It bloomed super early this year, before this recent cold snap. So heavy limbs took the worst of it. Mine is only eight, so I don’t need a chainsaw to clean up. Just a drag and toss on top of the compost pile.
And with all of my partisan sh1t. I couldn’t help but notice how progressive that special on NBC was last night. I also learned something from it. Black women may age worse than Asian women. Sorry if I offended anyone here. Just a terrible observation.
Grim,
If you and your generation make it to your 60s and beyond, you will also be derided and laughed at by the younger generations.
In the blink of an eye, you will ask: How did the years go by so fast?
Enjoy your situation while it lasts.
Why does testing make any difference at all?
By the time you are tested, it’s too late, you’ve already infected your family. If they don’t get sick, it’s because they had it already, and gave it to you.
Isn’t the point of social distancing to eliminate community transfer? Check, check, already there.
What does testing tell us? That we are flattening the curve?
What’s it matter – when we flatten the curve – we’re just spreading the boomer deaths out, we aren’t saving anyones lives.
All these talking heads focusing on testing being the most important thing we can do. Irrelevant.
If you and your generation make it to your 60s and beyond, you will also be derided and laughed at by the younger generations.
Well done, but until then, this is the kind of shit your generation does … which will only create more generational tension.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-citys-coronavirus-restrictions-include-37-tons-of-sand-atop-skateboarding-park
So is it really any surprise? All that fun the young whipper snappers are having is going to kill grandpa…
People given much much more than me have pissed it all away, your point?
Bystander says:
April 19, 2020 at 10:21 am
I think the unemployed should have married alpha female, received free granny equity and coasted along..
This is why we need antibody testing, this is why we need immunity passports.
For all you test trackers out there, which side of the fence do you fall?
Open Source in Academia vs Quality Control and Corporate profit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52276836
The companies that are better known for making these chemical kits warn against reverse engineering them under the current circumstances.
Dr Thomas Theuringer, a spokesperson for Qiagen, a German chemicals company that supplies reagents to the UK, says replacing these reagent cocktails with home-made recipes is “playing with fire”.
“We can only guarantee that our extractions work if we make them in our production facilities where we have a controlled environment. Any mis-step and you might get a false positive and create more harm than good,” he says.
I can’t see this going up in the short term. The economy just got destroyed. End of the cycle. It’s a buying opportunity. Long term, wouldn’t be worried.
Deadconomy AKA The Great Pumpkin@Wayne says:
April 19, 2020 at 11:08 am
Pumps,
I checked the realtor.com for Wayne and the first page is full of price reductions.. The beginning of the end… of Route 3/46??
Wow. Just how many poles are on this thread? Looking at you syf, sorry.. zaraza
Grim in mod.
Passports will be faked. The Ellis Island approach would work. Line up to be tested to get into the workplace. If you pass you are good and will be retested every few days.
Good, let them be faked.
Florida, which was “late” in issuing a lockdown or sorts is several days past it’s peak of deaths (which is a lagging indicator) according to: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
The IHME puts out a respected forecast which has always been on the higher side and revised downward over time. From the beginning, it’s forecast assumed social distancing would be implemented, if it wasn’t already, and would last a long time.
So Florida was late to implement social distancing and still came in under projections. With the weather warming up everyday there (hopeful thinking on my part that that matters) … I wonder how it will turn out.
Changed my handle. Not Polish.
Research done after the Spanish Flu showed that open air hospitals were most effective.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/
Open air hospitals showed the least community transmission among patients and staff.
Our hospitals should be open air tents any place warm enough to do it.
Given the limitations of PPE – seems like this should be what most places are gearing up to do.
Published in the American Journal of Public Health – 2009
However, more might be gained by introducing high levels of natural ventilation or, indeed, by encouraging the public to spend as much time outdoors as possible. It might also be prudent to stockpile tents and beds, because hospitals in the United Kingdom, the United States, and elsewhere are not prepared for a severe pandemic.74–80 Temporary accommodation would be required to deal with the most seriously ill, just as it was in 1918. The Camp Brooks Open Air Hospital might serve as a useful model.
You probably all want to hear this. I was wrong. No roaring 20’s 2.0. Dumb call. Too young to know better. Had to learn the hard way. Should have listened..
Lesson here, don’t make long term predictions. Chances are you will make yourself look like a jackass like I did. There will always be a black swan event that takes the economy out, unless dumb luck prevails.
Older and wiser with each mistake..
Speaking of Florida, I have been down here for most of the Winter and Spring. Will be heading back to Jersey in a week or so. Statistics in Hunterdon County, where I have my main house is about the same as here in Sarasota County. Some idiots down here don’t use masks nor gloves. Even the cashiers don’t practice safe s.. I mean protect themselves properly.
After being parked at a shopping center parking lot 2 weeks ago, ready to backup and leave, someone screams at me. I slam breaks and roll down the window instinctively. Did I hit someone? No. Some old geezer from Bergen county runs up, noticing my Jersey plates. Asks me where the car dealership from Jersey is that has the plate covers on my car. Sticks his head into our car and nudges me with his hand against my arm. This is just after my wife and I take off our masks and sanitize our hands. I was not too happy that day.
Didn’t that guy realize the dealer was from Sarasota. I guess that was typical of a Northern NJer, boomer or not.
Happy happy happy I don’t live in that part of the state.
There’s a segment that wants to be out and about, consequences be damned (whether it’s ignorance or something else).
There’s a segment that will go out reluctantly because they’re stir crazy.
There’s other segments that are more fearful.
In order to get those last segments to trust it’s safe to go out, all we need is the expert predictors to publicly claim they were wrong… and to apologize.
30 year realtor says:
April 19, 2020 at 10:31 am
In order to succeed at getting the population to trust it is safe to go out, covid and antibody testing must be widespread. There must be contact tracing on all positive tests for covid-19. Without this there will certainly be more social distancing and stay at home orders. This will do great harm to the economy. People will no longer trust and they will be reticent to return to life as we once knew it
Chicken fried chicken has amazing healing powers
…and we were supposed to list our house in Hunterdon for sale this spring. It ain’t happpening. We’ll just bite down and pay the $18k in property taxes for another year. See what happens next year..also will have more time to put lipstick on this pig. Hehe.
I may even apply for one of those remote Cobol programmer jobs the good Gov (and Indeed) is hoping to fill. Never know when my dinosaur MainFrame skills will come in handy.
These are Interesting Times. Pun intended
In order to get those last segments to trust it’s safe to go out, all we need is the expert predictors to publicly claim they were wrong… and to apologize.
Too late, we’ve turned a huge segment of the population into life-long neurotics. Apologies are irrelevant – the psychological damage for some is irreparable.
Interesting read, if anyone is interested. An MIT study surmises that the spread of Corona-19 in NYC was seeded by riders in the subway system. To a lesser extent, riders in the bus transports within and out of NYC.
No one can be blamed for this. Manhattanites ditched the Subways first, because they had abilities to work from home. Queens, Brooklyn and Bronx riders were mostly at job sites and ridership did not fall off as quickly. And they got hit much worse
https://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf
Even worse will be the addiction we now create to hand sanitizer and disinfectants – in four or five years we’ll all be talking about the search for effective antibiotics as MRSA and other infections skyrocket.
Go long… hand creams?
“Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. Yet They Aren’t
An entrepreneur struggles in a coronavirus-ravaged city where consumer habits may forever be changed.”
h—s://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/wuhan-s-life-after-lockdown-isn-t-business-as-usual
I’m paywalled so cant link as I have print only, but I do think perceptions of the upper 10% will drag on the economy.
Regarding the present economy, defined as financialization Private Equity, Hedge Fund, Buy-Sell Stock-Houses-Default Swaps,etc galore, build nothing and create money magic like Enron, sure is toast.
However, a new economy will rise with more in common with that of 100+ yrs ago. Think 3M – original name – Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (see manufacturing in there); frankly the future is somewhat in the past, whoever makes the new equivalent of Ford River Rouge Complex all robotic, 3D printers and fancy tech has the future. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_River_Rouge_Complex
Here is where IT WILL NOT BE A BOOMER, because they can’t fathom it. A post earlier talked about the lack of leadership, boomers got none, what do you expect.
My bet is on Elon Musk or an alike.
It’s one thing to have the freedom to go out, it’s another to have to the resources and/or desire. Let’s look: case in point – Pearl Jam puts out another shitty album over the last decade. Announce a tour, tickets are gone in minutes and immediately appear in the resale market at 10x the cost. Scammed.
Any additional tightness in funds will just mean fewer people are in a position to get scammed like that. We are In fact in days when inequity meant you had things covered and the other guy struggled. For the disenfranchised you May be Free to go out. But you ain’t got a dime to spend there.
Everything’s relative. But if you ain’t leaving the house you ain’t spending money. The question oughtta be is anyone saving?
Savers? Risk takers? Who comes out of this alive? Amazon is the new Sears Roebuck.
700, 20% down and now, no HELOCs.
https://www.americanbanker.com/news/jpmorgan-halts-home-equity-loans-due-to-coronavirus
If we could test everyone, those with antibodies in theory could go on their merry way but would they still not be able to transport COVID 19? Personally, if diagnostics aren’t from Roche, Abbott, Beckman of a couple of the smaller quality players, I wouldn’t trust it. Some of what’s out there now doesn’t even work.
Lib, take what’s going on now, factor in any changes to how things are being managed and project what it looks like by June 30th.
Turd
My point about the nursing home admissions is that I believe they are down. Some places suspended taking new patients. Absent covid that should have caused deaths to drop. To get good data you would have to adjust for that.
My other point is that I believe many of those deaths would hav occurred anyway. If you are saying there are assisted living homes with50% vacancy due to death from
Covid, I would like to see the data. Otherwise that is fake news and fear mongering.
Most of those places are one way admissions. You check in and are carried out. The place in Sussex looks like a hospice. That’s a short term stay for most.
Im going to reserve judgement in the impact of covid in the assisted living and hospice until reliable data is produced. Certainly it’s been devastating but I think there is a good chance it’s been exaggerated. That’s what sells.
Can anyone guess why the covid cases in India are coming in so low? I would have thought with their proximity to china, density and poverty, cases would be much higher.
Are they actually practicing social distancing? Economic lockdown ? or have the a much higher immunity ? ie curry cures all..
walking – very low share of elderly in the population
65 years and over in USA is 14.3%
India it’s 5.4%
Plus they don’t have Shop-rite and Whole Foods to walk around in all afternoon and if you are out of your house you will get whipped.
In terms of future costs; this virus is doing a hell of a job mitigating future healthcare costs taking. Cruel to think about, but it is reality.
Think about how many dying were receiving social security and/or pension. So saving money for those areas of the economy too.
Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.
And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland — a popular vacation destination — dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.
Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.
“We don’t have a radically different view,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. “The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.”
https://apple.news/A0a-lIjrFSfCw-ePxkA5NSQ
Get Ready for Mega Cash for Clunkers, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says
The auto analyst predicts bold action to get car customers buying, and says the crisis is an opportunity to rethink infrastructure.
https://apple.news/ALGC9m8A-TnWWzdwq_9oiSw
On the irrelevance of testing? Boom, another spot on view from Grim…
Testing right now simply does not matter. Why? The best authority is uncertain whether infection confers immunity. Any test is only good at the precise time it is administered, thereafter, unless every environment an individual enters is confirmed virus clear that individual cannot be deemed safe. The best authority expects the virus to resurface in the Fall under any scenario. It is impossible that any test can run at a capacity of 300m units repeatedly let alone a vir0logy test. Lastly, we know the groups at risk and they are easily identifiable.
What we do need, as quickly as possible, if one desires to minimize the human toll of this virus going forward is an accepted therapy that breaks the pathway of infection-symptomatic-vent-death at the point of first symptoms. Testing? Doesn’t tell us anything materially new to combat the virus that we don’t already know. Testing will backfill data analysis for the scientists to confirm what is mostly already known. It is also a talking point for those on the left and right dissatisfied with large government or the current administration. Saving further lives? Not so much.
And, finally, until and unless there is a vaccine with complete efficacy for the at-risk groups we may very well see a permanent change in the daily routines of these at-risk groups. If not, those groups at risk will have to accept that certain regular activities and interactions could continue for them only with an enhanced risk of m0rbidity attached. Can’t isolate the entire healthy population in perpetuity to preserve the mobility of the few. Unless those few are going to carry the economy for all.
“…they should have been welding the doors shut on nursing homes when we first heard about Washington State…Yet the media and the state governors continued to pr0pagate the myth that this disease was discr1minately impacting the “young and healthy”. Except, it wasn’t, and still isn’t…But hey, lets close the beaches and hiking trails. That’ll make us all feel good.”
Grim on fire today! An aside on the above, uhm, thanks I guess? I said exactly the same things two weeks ago, including using the exact phrase of ‘weld the doors shut’ and my issues with the beaches and parks closing. I was roundly and personally attacked. LOL, I really don’t care anyway. Just find it funny.
Pumpkin – I was thinking of your Roaring 20s 2.0 prediction this morning and I was going to post:
Your call will end up being correct but it will be for all the wrong reasons. I think we are on the front end of a massive Nationalist movement. Made in the USA (or by USA allies) will be huge. Detaching our supply lines from China will be a long road to hoe but I am confident that it will happen.
There will still be some cheaper Chinese products on the market of course, who can resist the fixed costs of a slave labor pool. But Made in the USA is going to get hugely relevant again.
This movement is going to be a boon for the lower and middle income worker.
Boken,
Sorry I disagree. Unless some protectionism is instituted for American worker then companies will go right back to cheapest production possible.
Home, you might be on to something. Look at what he posted below. Both sides of the political front are now attacking China. It’s becoming about who can deal with the China problem better. Combine that with the negatives of foreign production dependency being highlighted by the current crisis and I think you might be on to something.
Fabius Maximus says:
April 19, 2020 at 12:01 pm
Biden will do just fine on China.
https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1251612252647624705
Every day more and more moderate Republicans are backing Joe.
A rigged election or no election is Donnies only hope.
Folks, remember our beloved Roaring 20s used to post links from apple.news… LOL
His tenant in Clifton must have not paid…
Deadconomy AKA The Great Pumpkin@Wayne Confirmed 100%
“Get Ready for Mega Cash for Clunkers, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says
The auto analyst predicts bold action to get car customers buying, and says the crisis is an opportunity to rethink infrastructure.
https://apple.news/ALGC9m8A-TnWWzdwq_9oiSw
“
By – I agree with you, without strong worker protections, the draw to send a factory job overseas is too strong.
The key will be No,v 3. Trump has been consistent for decades in his America first stance. If we gets re-elected and doesn’t have to constantly be thinking about is re-election campaign, I think you will see him take a VERY aggressive posture against China.
My primary fear with this strategy is the increased likelihood of a hot war with China. If the world holds them to account for the Wuhan flu, China’s economy will crack and then quickly crumble. I don’t know enough about the populous in China. Not sure if they will embrace a revolution. But the CCP leadership will 100% turn to the military if their future is threatened via tarrifs, trade balancing, loss of manufacturing, etc.
Chinese male population has been coddled I don’t think their military will fight.
Made in America only works if the American consumer demands it. If they go back to being the shites many of them are and that includes young people can it will be back to business as usual. And on another note can’t believe the selfish ignorant people that throw their gloves on the street or people’s front lawns. I see it on my evening walks.
When I was heavy into guitar, everything I bought was American. Most serious musicians are the same way. Their amps, guitars, all the effects pedals…all American made. Once the companies like Boss and Ibanez outsourced their pedal production to China, the sound quality fell off the side of the cliff. Once fender started making guitars in Mexico, they were equally awful. That’s why most people still pay top dollar for effects pedals, guitars, and amps from the 70s. Their quality is far superior and they still work because they were built like tanks.
If you don’t want to buy vintage American parts, you can still buy custom parts made by individuals in America. You end up paying $200 per pedal instead of $50. Same goes for guitars. You pay $2000 instead of $400. But it’s well worth it. I have an amp from 1968 that still has the original tubes in it and it’s amazing.
I would be willing to pay a lot more than a 100% markup for American made goods because they’ll be more likely to last. I’ve gone through 4 blenders in the past 7 years. Their products are absolute sh1t. My grandfather’s blender from the 50s still works. I just can’t find the top to it.
I bought my dress shoes from a company in Germany in 2000, Born. They make their shoes look great but the sole and bottom are still designed to have the comfort of a sneaker. They are all handmade. Why do their shoes last 20 years and every stupid shoe I get out of China last 12 months max?
The Chinese are not the Japanese……. no honor, no guts….
3b says:
April 19, 2020 at 7:15 pm
Chinese male population has been coddled I don’t think their military will fight.
South Koreans are better people than all of them…..
You’re just stuck on Psy.
Grim – there is no immunity and so goes thee immunity passport. With corona, you can recover today after suffering fever and yucky symptoms and 2+ weeks later catch it again. All the time passing it to someone else.
Realistically, there can be no vaccine for at least a year.
So, the only real way to fight this is to social distance… stay home. OR – have leadership that can sell purell in ever corner, give out masks and set proper, national level guidelines to work safely. That’s not gonna happen until Jan 1, 2021 when the new President walks into the White House.
Blue Ribbon – there you go with your racist stereotyping. Get a life!
FNH,
In New Jersey, the coronavirus has spread to more than 95 percent of the state’s 375 long-term care facilities, according to state health officials. Within the last eight days, the number of nursing homes deaths has risen nearly five-fold in New Jersey, from 128 to 625 deaths, state health officials said.
It’s not anecdotal.
RentLord, the immunity may not be permanent but the practical solution looks to be antibody shots, taken periodically for kind of added immunity expiring in time. This is a short-term solution till vaccine is out.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/doctor-in-netflix-doc-says-he-discovered-potential-coronavirus-cure/
Antibody shots work just as well as shots for cold, which is zilch.
But what will work is staying locked up for somewhere between the next 12 months and infinity until we have a vaccine.
8:02 I have a bass from Fender Japan.
They’ve always made outstanding gear over there.
Otherwise 80% of my stuff is USA made.
Matchless Amp made in Los Angeles recently went in for a tuneup.
Guy who made it went over it and commented how great it sounded.