From the Star Ledger:
Asbury Park sued by state over indoor dining defiance
Two days after Asbury Park revealed it would violate Gov. Phil Murphy’s coronavirus lockdown orders and allow restaurants to offer indoor dining starting Monday, Murphy announced Friday the state was suing the Jersey Shore’s premier dining destination to stop that from happening.
“We have worked with the governing body of Asbury Park to try to amicably resolve the issue of their resolution regarding indoor dining. Unfortunately, they have not done so,” Murphy said during his daily coronavirus briefing in Trenton.
“We have one set of rules and they are based on one principle: ensuring public health,” the governor added.
Asked if he would send the State Police to Asbury Park if restaurants do reopen indoor dining, Murphy declined to comment, saying the issue is now “subject to a legal proceeding.”
Asbury Park’s city council shocked the state Wednesday when it voted to allow restaurants to open for indoor service on June 15, at 25% capacity or 50 customers and staff, whichever is lower. That came two days after Murphy raised limits on indoor gatherings in the state to those levels as New Jersey’s COVID-19 outbreak slows.
But while Murphy has said outdoor dining will be allowed across New Jersey on June 15 as part of the state’s Stage 2 reopening plans, he stressed indoor dining remains prohibited, even under the new gathering limits. Murphy said the new limits were designed more to allow houses of worship to have larger services again.
…
On Thursday, Murphy warned Asbury Park and any other towns or businesses that violate his orders that there will be enforcement. He said the goal is avoiding new spikes in cases and deaths that other states have seen lately.
First
second
Turd.
Altanta released the police body cam footage real quick, shame Minneapolis has not done the same. It won’t change what happened but the public deserves to know.
Wasn’t doing anything crazy, violent, or harming anyone? So, driving drunk to the point of falling asleep is fine. Then getting into an altercation, stealing the cops weapon, and fleeing is perfectly harmless? Who in their right mind steals a cops weapon and expects to not get shot?
What do you want? To just let criminal activity be ignored? If I was a cop right now, I would quit or simply stop doing my job. I’m not getting into a risky situation where I have to shoot and then be charged with murder. F that.
Inviting chaos into society. Why have laws if no one is going to be afraid to break them (that goes for white collar crimes too)?
“But lawyers representing Brooks’ family said the GBI’s account was false. One of the attorneys, L. Chris Stewart, said witnesses had told him that officers had not conducted a field sobriety test – instead, they appeared to be having a civil conversation with Brooks before they suddenly tried to arrest him.
Stewart also said Brooks had not been blocking the drive-thru line when he was asleep in his car.
Stewart said officers should merely have had a conversation with Brooks if they suspected he had been drinking, and avoided escalating the situation.
“Why was he even under arrest? You want to know how this could have been avoided?” Stewart said. “Talk to him. ‘Hey, buddy, you fell asleep in line, you okay? Why don’t you pull your car over there and call an Uber.’ And then you walk over and then you leave. Why is that so hard for police officers.”
Stewart continued: “He wasn’t doing anything crazy or violent or harming anyone.””
Yes, and body cam video shows he was given a breathalyzer and clearly failed. Why did he have to resist? Why did he have to fight? Why did he have to steal the weapon? Why did he try to flee?
What exactly do people expect from cops? They are not one of us, they are law enforcers.
Pumps – Fact is a stealing a taser (legally a non-lethal device) and running away is not a death sentence, those two cops could not handle one drunk guy who was passed out in his car. At most they should have let him run himself out and then picked him up a few minutes later as resisting arrest is just another charge to be tacked onto DUI and not a death sentence.
We now live in a world where the online jury gets to decide, given all the video evidence released by the City of Atlanta and bystanders waiting in line for their cheeseburgers and Wendy’s fries (arguably the best of the fast food fries) the cop that used deadly force should be charged with manslaughter. Not worthy of burning down a city but a manslaughter charge non the less.
re: :Why did he have to resist” Being drunk means you do not have a clear mind, and combine that with fear well you might have done the same.
Better question is why did he take the field sobriety test, talk to police and take a breathalyzer? He would have been better off knowing his rights and not doing so, tough to make a charge stick with no evidence.
He tried to argue his way out of it and admitted his guilt, failed the field sobriety test, failed the breathalyzer and got angry when his argument to be let go sleep it off fell on deaf ears.
Cops used to do it all the time, drive the dunk guy home or call a cab. But MADD has put so much pressure on the Politicians and Police for ZERO tolerance that they can no longer exercise any discretion, and body cameras don’t help either. They must arrest, no discretion anymore.
It’s sad it had to end like this, that’s all I know. I just don’t understand why people still resist arrest after they see what happens over and over again. I just don’t get it.
These officers were being totally chill with him. Why did he have to do that?
You got caught. Own it. You could kill someone being that drunk behind the wheel.
My guess is that African Americans are terrified of police and act irrationally when confronted. Choices people. Choices.
” But MADD has put so much pressure on the Politicians and Police for ZERO tolerance that they can no longer exercise any discretion, and body cameras don’t help either. They must arrest, no discretion anymore.”
Now DAMM is fighting back against this injustice.
Send 10 dollars to: DAMM, Drunks against mad mothers (aka Karens)
Here’s the problem. Everyone is talking about what the cops can do differently. There were a lot of things this fellow in Atlanta could have done differently.
Pumps,
When you live inside that bubble in your head you will never understand. Get someone to pop it for you.
Do all of you teachers think alike? Now that is scary.
BRT,
Are you saying this shooting was justified based on the actions of the deceased? Are you saying that his actions escalated and caused a situation for the police to make poor decisions? Aren’t the police trained to handle volatile situations?
The last couple of weeks here have been very interesting. Humorous that so many of the onetime Pumpkin bashers agree with his ham handed attemps to justify racism and police brutality. Does it give any of you pause when you find yourselves in agreement with this moron?
I’m saying this whole interaction is a two way street. You can’t expect things to be reformed one on end with no change in behavior on the other.
I should note, you are drawing a lot of conclusions from my post, somehow trying to say that I agree with police brutality. Don’t put words in my mouth.
You know…why have cops? That’s what you want, right?
Do you understand that it’s not okay to resist arrest and steal a cops weapon? You are very likely to get shot if this type of encounter happens. It’s not rocket science.
Society is becoming a joke. Don’t cry when the crime rate goes up.
Are you the all knowing god? Can it be that you are wrong on some issues? Moron..right.
“Does it give any of you pause when you find yourselves in agreement with this moron?”
Justifying racism and police brutality? Right..
Again, people like you are why the lefty mindset can become so dangerous. I don’t agree with your position, therefore I’m racist and for police brutality. Got it.
“agree with his ham handed attemps to justify racism and police brutality.”
BRT,
I didn’t give you a Chester Arthur question. I asked you real questions that your comment provoked.
Pumpkin,
I never called you a racist. Have you read what you have written here? Go back over the last few weeks and read your comments about black people. Read your comment today, the police were chill and the guy shouldn’t have resisted? If you are not trying to justify what has taken place to attempt to sanitize it, what is your point?
BRT, you tried to blame the dead man too. Why are people under any obligation to be cooperative while being arrested?
30,
I’m simply pointing out the logical position that if he would have just cooperated, and got into the police car, he would still be alive. Same thing applies with most of these cases in which an individual is killed by a cop.
Cops deal with really crazy people on a regular basis. So when you do something crazy, like resist arrest, just know what could happen. I was taught from a young age to say Yes sir and never get loud with a cop. Just do what they say, and get a lawyer later.
I think he made 4 actions that escalated the situation further and further each time. First pulling away, then continually fighting, then grabbing the taser, then pointing the taser at the officer while running.
Was the shooting justified? I think they could have possibly done something else but I wouldn’t be willing to convict the officer for making a split second decision when someone turns around and points a weapon directly at them. And I’m pretty sure this is a tough case to try. Based on your opinions, it seems you think this is a black and white issue with no grey area. That was the whole point of the Chester Arthur question. Would I be justified in demanding his statues removed based on the legislation he put forth against Asians? Where do we draw the line? Do we remove every statue of American presidents who presided over slavery? That’s not a black and white issue either. There’s no clear point at which we draw the line.
From a retired deputee on the situation, he said this:
As a retired deputy, when anyone takes a shooters stance against you, you can”t call “time out” to see what the offender has in his hand. You either shoot to defend your self or you possibly die. If the offender had just followed commands, he probably would have been arrested for dui, made bond, gone home, and went to court later on down the road. When you fight the police you can get a felony charge of obstruction.When you run, fleeing and attempting to elude, along with the original charges. When you turn to “shoot” at the police or anyone, you have escalated your liabilities and roll the dice.
That being said, I’m probably going to take a break from surfing and posting and the internet for at least a week. Being in lockdown for 3 months, working from home and becoming the primary instructor for my kids education has taken it’s toll on me. As of Monday, I’m finished with work for the summer and I would much rather escape outdoors and enjoy the nice weather than argue with people.
I’ve had to, on three instances the past month walk away from people in public places who were looking to start an argument with me. I’ll do the same here. Be well everyone.
Juice here is the deal, while we look at it and initially say he took the taser, it’s non-lethal, therefore the shooting is unjustified. Probably does not pass muster, yes a taser is non lethal but if he succeeds in tasing the officer, the officer is now incapacitated and the suspect has access to his gun potentially provoking a lethal situation for the officers.
Race has absolutely nothing to do with it, cops are driven by fear and by training. We would be having a different conversation if the drunk driver killed someone. This is a country of laws, we should not have people burning down Wendy’s and rioting in the streets.
There is a very good reason we do not want intoxicated people behind the wheel. The deceased’s attorney is a jack*ss, you break the law, you put innocents at risk, you do not get let off the hook, you get arrested. It should also we very clear any physical altercation with an armed officer of the law is a death sentence, period. Do not fight with the police because any altercation where you can get to their gun puts you in the position being assumed to attack the officer with deadly force.
“ Why are people under any obligation to be cooperative while being arrested?”
What a piece of shit 30 year is to write that. Seriously go F$ck yourself you piece of trash.
My safe word is: https://youtu.be/suRs-BLmTMU
“ It should also we very clear any physical altercation with an armed officer of the law is a death sentence, period.”
That’s a terrible standard.
“cops are driven by fear and by training”
I agree; the problem is their training teaches them to fear everything.
“Why are people under any obligation to be cooperative while being arrested?”
“What a piece of shit 30 year is to write that. Seriously go F$ck yourself you piece of trash.”
While I don’t agree with the latter statement the former is truly mind boggling.
And, again, I’m one who has had two adult (23yo/49yo) incidents were I had the sh1t beaten out of me by sociopaths with badges. Once while cuffed in the back of a police car on a public road. So I am by no means a sympathizer or apologist for the men in blue.
Joyce, it’s an issue of the law when it is an armed law officer any action taken against the officer can be perceived to be a situation where the perpetrator can use deadly force. My father was an attorney, he told us this from a very young age. The police are trained to guard their weapon with deadly force, whether or not this training is right or not is another question entirely. This guy grabbed for a weapon, it was non-lethal but first did the officer know it was the taser in the moment? Second, if you allow yourself to be tased now the suspect has access to your weapon. The police are trained to assume the worst.
The solution is simple, when you are being arrested, get arrested, say as little as possible, try not to do anything that is memorable. The police tend to be terrible witnesses and tend to not keep great notes, do not put yourself or your defense at risk by engaging in a confrontation with the police.
As for 30yr, your racism is showing. The issue is not race, look at the statistics on fatal police interactions, the cops don’t care what your color is if you are perceived to be a threat they use deadly force. The co-opting of this issue by a movement focused on race is in fact wrong and also in fact racist, innocent people being killed by police is a problem for all people. Listen racial profiling happens, it is wrong, DWB is a real thing no argument here. These incidents have nothing to do with it and everything to do with suspects who do not comply with orders given by law officers. The police officer is 18x more likely to be killed by the black suspect that the other way around(per the WSJ article). You must cooperate with an officer of the law if you are arrested, the police do not write the law and do not pass judgement, but anarchy cannot be permitted in society.
You should try to read some things written by Thomas Sowell. His analytical data based approach really does shed some light on things. Historically speaking it makes no sense that racism, systemic or otherwise is to blame for the African American communities incarceration rate. Why is it that as racism was actually being defeated incarceration rates for Black Americans began to rise? It makes no sense pre 1930’s blacks represented 20% of incarceration and were consistently 10-12% of the population, that starts to go up and by the 80’s it is over 50%.
There is an element of responsibility that needs to be taken by these communities. I understand the position Sowell takes, if I were a person of color, I’d feel obliged to take a similar one. One needs to take a hard look at their community and ask the hard questions and take the right path. So many issues afflicting urban communities(of all races) are the result single parent households. The data shows a relationship, obviously we will never know if it is causal but the evidence and the hypothesis is compelling. People like George Floyd are as Candice Owens stated a model of what ails the black community, a 46 year old man with multiple children he was not caring for, who was an ex-felon out high as a kite on the street. People like Floyd are the problem, his death was unfortunate and not justified BUT he is hardly a model or a hero, and Biden should be ashamed for comparing him to MLK.
Absolutely boils my blood. He ruined his own kids lives and then the same community he has held down for another generation is celebrating him as a hero. A hero for what? Ruining his kids lives?! Providing almost zero opportunity for his kids to improve their life by abandoning his children for drugs and alcohol.
A hero is someone that is there for their kids… a role model they can look up to and replicate.
“People like George Floyd are as Candice Owens stated a model of what ails the black community, a 46 year old man with multiple children he was not caring for, who was an ex-felon out high as a kite on the street. People like Floyd are the problem, his death was unfortunate and not justified BUT he is hardly a model or a hero, and Biden should be ashamed for comparing him to MLK.”
The deer needs to be fired immediately. There is strong support to hire a black deer
https://nypost.com/2020/06/14/3-injured-after-deer-runs-into-protesters-in-new-jersey/
You’re moving the goal posts and making assumptions. I was responding to your overly broad standard.
JCer says:
June 14, 2020 at 3:42 pm
Joyce, it’s an issue of the law when it is an armed law officer any action taken against the officer can be perceived to be a situation where the perpetrator can use deadly force. My father was an attorney, he told us this from a very young age. The police are trained to guard their weapon with deadly force, whether or not this training is right or not is another question entirely. This guy grabbed for a weapon, it was non-lethal but first did the officer know it was the taser in the moment? Second, if you allow yourself to be tased now the suspect has access to your weapon. The police are trained to assume the worst.
This line of thinking, in my opinion, is why we went from “he pointed a gun at me” to “he made a furtive movement near his waistband” as routine justification for police using deadly force.
It dawn of me that at this point, a large chunk of the non-boomer locust see the issue with the cops as untenable situation which will lead to accountability and weakening their immunity or will continue as is with people either shooting back or bribing them.
The rule of law, which always comes down to whether you have as a person the bucks and connection to enforce it when being violated against you (best description is this video https://youtu.be/4-NqtZEdkps )
If you are a little minnow and you are getting destroyed, then a corrupt cop is your best friend. Going back in history circa ’88. Two North Bergen cops used to wait for drunk customers leaving the Navel Base bar and would mug, rough up a bit, and throw away their key of the would be drunk driver and tell them to walk home ( Leftwing – I wonder if that was one of your adventures). An undercover trooper was used as decoy to bust them.
But looking at the cost of DWI now ($10,000+) and how many little things now are linked to not only drivers license, but employment licenses (barbers, etc) and any arrest becomes a $10,000+ fight to make sure you can still make a living after and not end up homeless. No wonder any one other than boomers who had a lot of leeway with their bad behavior in their youth is pissed off and wants cops powers trimmed or make them easier to bribe, we are already 75% of the way to Mexico – might as well get there faster.
“I’d rather be a hypocrite than the same person forever.” – Ad Rock
re: “Navel Base bar” Does Candy still “work” there? She said she would call me…
leftwing – you are going to have to tell the story when you were a 23 yr old or the one when you were the 49 year old you. I will gladly chip in for a gofundme if it is not funny.
Start a wrestling match with police, run, then point a weapon at them? I think the police will shoot you regardless of race. Plenty of white people have been arrested for failing breathalyzer tests.
Had he been resting outside his car, would the cops have had any basis to test him? Is it illegal to sleep off alcohol in a car?
No One – unfortunately the courts have ruled behind the wheel anywhere including your property is a DUI, keys not necessary.
Hang the DJ! aka guy in the robe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMykYSQaG_c
Taibbi is pretty far left but I really enjoyed some honesty coming from that side of the world with regard to the media.
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news-media-is-destroying-itself?r=1ejgy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter
Homeboken,
What is happening is the fanatic upper class college educate left (pre-Clinton they would have been called Liberal Rockefeller Republicans ) is asserting itself within that social wing, no different than the Cruz, Ryan, Tea Party, Birthers in the Republican.
Now what would be interesting to see if it is funded by interested corporate entity (Wall Street, Big Tech ,etc) like the Kochs and Big Oil funds the Cruz, Ryans, Tea Partiers, Birthers, and Trumpist; as a way to control the flow of conversation away from the real issues of Tax Cuts, Subsidies, Bail-out, Monopolistic behavior white collar crimes, and into instead fake bogus socially exhaustive ones about the pre-op tranny hog wart issues.
Protesters in various cities have torn down, destroyed and defaced statues of the explorer.
In West Orange, signs that say “Murderer” and “This is stolen land!” have been posted on a monument to Columbus.
The Italian explorer, whose name and 1492 voyage children have long been instructed to remember with a popular rhyme, has traditionally been venerated by Italian Americans. But his history as a perpetrator of genocide is an increasingly recognized fact of his legacy.
After residents called for the removal of the West Orange monument, the mayor says the landmark will be taken down. The news arrived just two days after Camden got rid of its Columbus statue.
“The legend of Columbus does not match the history,” West Orange Mayor Robert Parisi said in a video posted to social media June 13. “And today, the man, the statues, the monuments celebrating his life are divisive and a symbol of hate and oppression and cannot remain as part of our community.”
As a history teacher, I don’t understand the Columbus issue. No one is celebrating the negative aspect of him, they are celebrating the individual responsible for the first aspects of globalization. Since it was in its primitive stage, globalization was brutal.
Child birth is painful, but its fruits should be celebrated…and that’s how I look at the story of Columbus. Im not concerned about his negative impacts, only this one positive impact that set the gears in motion towards a globalized world.
That’s a child take of the history of Columbus. Ignore his amazing contribution and erase it out, because you can’t handle the negative impact.
Ying and yang…good and bad in everything
Columbus was an explorer. He sailed across a large ocean at great risk to discover what was there. Ultimately, he paved the way for western civilization to come to the Americas. I think that those who protest Colombus are fundamentally against Western Civilization. Yet I don’t see them signing up for hunter-gatherer training or volunteering to be sacrificed atop an Aztec temple. They want all the benefits of this civilization while spitting at the people who made it possible.
Can I ask that we don’t use the same screen-name? Whomever is “honeboken Sunday” is not me and there is no reason to mimic another name. Thanks
So can someone explain to me how you get community Service hours out of this?
https://tulsa.craigslist.org/tlg/d/tulsa-actors-needed-june-20/7141828474.html
Actors Needed June 20 (Tulsa)
© craigslist – Map data © OpenStreetMap
Third ST near Denver AVE
(google map)
compensation: 10.00
Excited and enthusiastic MINORITY Actors and Actresses needed to hold signs at event in Tulsa. Send headshot/resume for early consideration.
*This may be applied towards community service if necessary (in lieu of payment)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502668-trump-statistically-tied-with-biden-in-arkansas-poll
I need to see one of those graphics that show that if this poll is correct what that does further down the states and the ticket. I know the state loved Bill, and there are not a lot of EC votes at stake. But Donnie took this state by 33 points.
They are trying to use this tie in the polls to discredit the CNN poll. This just reinforces it. This could be the one that turns the tide and Donnie gets kicked to the curb.
10:14 it’s a weird commentary thing someone does.
Probably a regular poster. Maybe a philosophy major.
These days who the hell knows. I agree it’s tedious.
On Columbus, history is complicated and the 15th century standard for brutality was different. It is very complicated to look at historical events through a 21st century lens. First and foremost any accounts of Columbus are most likely tainted by a disinformation campaign as the lawsuits the Columbus family filed against the crown as early as 1508. As well as the fact that during his life his voyages never brought the returns to his investors they demanded.
Fundamentally Columbus was far too ill and not physically present enough in the New World, with enough men to commit the genocide it is claimed he did. Anthropological evidence suggests much more inter breeding between natives and spaniards. Most likely a pandemic was responsible for a massive die off. The times were brutal and his colony was staffed with men who were an unruly bunch of free convicts. All of the settlers and some of the natives were incredibly brutal, the Caribs performed human sacrifice, cannibalism and had a slave trade. The Spanish tended to rule by allying with various tribes so there certainly were natives complicit in what was happening. Columbus did try to put the Portuguese system of slavery in place and oversaw a brutal encomienda system but how this differs from other colonial governors or even the natives themselves(besides better weaponry), remains a hypothetical question. The eventual replacements for Columbus also committed many bad acts against the natives.
Columbus was simply the first of many who put into place 15-16th century colonies which were fully built on the concepts of human exploitation(As were most societies until the industrial revolution). Columbus did bravely push to explore further into The Atlantic when most were convinced it was certain death. One cannot help but be impressed that a man with no formal education was able to accomplish what he did. Barring the obvious exploitation one cannot help but be impressed by the bravery of all of the explorers during the age of discovery as it was undoubtably dangerous.
As such we should celebrate the ice of exploring in the face of certain danger while acknowledging the toll European took on native civilizations.
Chi,
Curious to know your thoughts. Author is law (securities) prof at Berkeley. Would all the latest CLOs held on balance sheets of banks appear in latest Q? If not, is 10K only other place to look? Any way for bank to hold this stuff off balance sheet, SIV?
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
Okay, if you say so. And if we say otherwise, we will be stoned, correct?
“West Orange will remove Christopher Columbus monument, a ‘symbol of hate and oppression’”
“The legend of Columbus does not match the history,” West Orange Mayor Robert Parisi said in a video posted to social media June 13. “And today, the man, the statues, the monuments celebrating his life are divisive and a symbol of hate and oppression and cannot remain as part of our community.”
I’m just waiting for them to attack and eliminate the Democratic Party. It was the political party that defended and supported slavery, correct? So it must eliminated, right?
And, of course, other news you don’t read or hear in MSM (or this blog), quoted:
Hunterdon County has been named the safest county in America to raise children, according to a report from the international non-profit, Save The Children.
https://www.tapinto.net/towns/flemington-slash-raritan/sections/hunterdon-county-news/articles/hunterdon-county-named-safest-place-to-raise-children-in-america
Nomad: I read that Article last week, it is sobering. Wells with almost 30 billion of that stuff!!
Zapa,
Nj is an elite location for raising a family. Not going to find a much better location.
Who controls the past controls the future.
Who controls the present controls the past.
No kidding, Pumpkin.
And my oldest, the Ivy-League educated teaching professor at a certain NJ Hospital was over yesterday with his wife and kids. When I showed him the article he complained about the county’s total lack of diversity. I told my uber-liberal, drank the koolaid kid, of course, that’s why you went to school and got raised here. Or would he rather have gone to school in Franklin township, Somerset county, like I did where we would have race riots every spring once the weather warmed up. Tis the truth, as my senior year no sports team was allowed to play a single game home and the school was shut down a whole week due to the whites finally standing up to all the BS that went on for years after years. This was in the early seventies.
So my some complains as he nurtures his backyard garden in heavily diverse Montgomery township.
some=son
And I bet none of the contributors to this blog, especially clean-boy Essex never learned instinctively to watch your own back as you moved around in your high school and surrounding school property. It was ingrained in you, self preservation.
Don’t know if you ever saw Game of Thrones… “Shame, shame, shame..”
Your son’s generation was shamed into their current mindset. They don’t understand what you experienced and why you think the way you do.
“When I showed him the article he complained about the county’s total lack of diversity. I told my uber-liberal, drank the koolaid kid, of course, that’s why you went to school and got raised here.”
Nailed it. Deep stuff.
There is a light and it never goes out..
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=RDsiO6dkqidc4&feature=share&playnext=1
Juice Box says:
June 15, 2020 at 8:38 am
Who controls the past controls the future.
Who controls the present controls the past
Isn’t this living proof that the majority of whites are not racist and don’t support it? But the media loves to paint a different picture. They truly make it seem like we have a racial problem in this country. I just don’t see it in real life, only in headlines. If I never went outside, and only read headlines, I would think the KKK is in control of this country and trump was their leader.
“The prevalence and ubiquity of this protest movement across geography, with actions taking place even in the most conservative, rural small towns (like St. Mary’s, PA) may be unique in all of US history, and is extremely interesting on a sociological level”
“But this particular event unfolded against a seemingly unlikely backdrop: the town of St. Marys, a Catholic stronghold in rural Elk County, where 98 percent of the 12,260 residents are white.
“In St. Marys, protests or any sort of active demonstration is not common at all – and I’ve lived here 27 years,” said Dani Catalano, a public school teacher who, along with a group of fellow educators, organized the community gathering against racism. “But if not now, when? I think we’ve all sort of reached the point where enough is enough.””
https://www.penncapital-star.com/civil-rights-social-justice/black-lives-matter-protests-swept-small-towns-in-pa-this-week-heres-why-that-matters/
Zapa I grew up in the Bronx, late 70s 80’s. Rode the 4,5, 6 train everyday as a teenager. Enough said.
Are the people that thought exporting manufacturing jobs to China would turn China into a democracy the same crowd that thought Iraqi people would welcome us as liberators and thought the Arab spring would bring peace to the Middle East?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/why-china-wants-to-crush-hong-kong-beijings-power-play-to-seize-control-and-spread-authoritarian-rule/news-story/b0dbd5cd9307220c2545e4af1c213a41
Hold: I never believed that about China, I think it was the BS that politicians told Americans to allow corporate America to dismantle our manufacturing base in the pursuit of public. Of course it allowed China to become a super power and threat to the USA and world. But who cares!!
Up until yesterday I might have believed this was true. Now I’m not so sure.
Just a feeling…
Don’t Expect Murphy’s Approval Rating to Drop
https://www.insidernj.com/dont-expect-murphys-approval-rating-drop/
NJ residents are the epitome of the saying “you get the government you deserve”.
Polls are so unbelievably useless –
If Murphy was up for election this November, who here thinks he would win? Not me.
I spent the weekend with some Monmouth country folks that are both directly and indirectly reliant on the shore summer economy. The shore people are beyond voting for Murphy again. Some of them legitimately want him out of office even before 2021 cycle.
So, probably put more on a public blog than I should have yesterday, must have been all the sunshine and fresh air….
No funny stories or DWIs behind my run-ins….first,when in my 20s, was part of a roundup of about two dozen kids outside of a police owned entertainment establishment after a fight broke out inside (we weren’t involved). Down to station house, cops played with all the kiddies, line up, stand up, turn around, sit down, get up, etc, etc. A friend was getting to his breaking point, to lighten him up and try to calm him I said something to a room I thought out of earshot of police…which wasn’t. Immediately everyone else was let go, i was given the full business. Strip search, knocked around the cell, etc. Then transported to Hudson County. On the way up the hill (back way, not the direct route) they stop the car, get out, each opens a back door, and pummel me. Get out at Hudson County, I’m caught looking down at badge numbers, they get offended, knock across the head cracking a tooth. Intake officer looks me right in the eye and in all seriousness says ‘we heard about you, thought you would have ended up in the Passaic instead’.
Second time was in AC. Simple flat out mistaken identity. Cas1no with local cops busted into the room. Slammed to the floor, typical cop hold leaning the head into the ground, knocked around the room. Brought downstairs, rug burns all over my head. NJSP arrive. They make a very loud and public show of getting the fcuk out of there, ie. they knew on entering there was a serious mistake and they wanted everyone (likely especially me) to know they weren’t involved. Held a couple hours. Released. What I wouldn’t give to have that situation back, unfortunately at the time I was in the middle of a very ugly, expensive, and drawn out divorce and custody fight. Absent that, no brainer to go to town on them. I had to just eat it and let it fade away.
Both cases, no cause, no resistance, full compliance. Multiple charges. All dropped. After of course being able to make bail and retain good counsel.
I’m very sympathetic to anyone dealing with LEOs. And while like everyone else in an upscale metro suburb with kids I am part of the ‘establishment firmament’ I really don’t like these motherfcukers in blue because of what the good cops let the bad ones do. I’ve experienced it firsthand and if I weren’t part of that ‘establishment’ with its attendant resources my outcome and trajectory would be radically different.
Is it true NJ has reopened tattoo parlors but if you take your pet to the vet you have to wait outside the building? It sounds so ludicrous it seems highly likely to be true.
3b
Let’s encourage a hostile totalitarian regime to become rich and the rest of the world to become dependent on it supplying medicines, electronics, appliances, chemicals for cleaners and body wash and shampoo and industry. What could go wrong?
Try to buy stuff not made in China or has components from China. So many things claim they are sourced globally which I suspect is code for China.
Hold: Exactly. That’s why I believe it was never about democracy, but rather for corporate America, to get insanely rich. But the whole focus these last 4 years has been Russia, it may be a threat, but no where near a threat like China.
If we were going to work with a totalitarian regime it should have been Russia.
Left,
My sympathies. Been down a road like that as well, though not as extreme with law enforcement. More about their constant lies, refusal to look at evidence that was right in their face, verbal abuse of myself in front of my child while denying me due process, omissions and false statements on police reports, etc, I could go on and on.
Had almost zero interactions with law enforcement until a divorce where my ex used them as a tool to attempt to win a custody battle. She was caught in her lies but no charges against her just like Central Park Karen.
Some police were very good and polite- and did the correct things. But you don’t get to pick and choose who shows up at your house-so if you get the rotten apple, expect a bad day.
I second your line-“I’m very sympathetic to anyone dealing with LEOs.”
Interesting read by Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone). Given his strong left leaning, he has some harsh words for the media. On some level, independent thought is dead. Criticize someone or something someone says and if it opposes what your party believes in, a pavlovian response devoid of thought and rationality. This goes for both sides and its a byproduct of laziness and being dumbed down. Social Media is garbage.
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news-media-is-destroying-itself
because of what the bad
goodcops let the reallybad ones do.;-)
hope I didn’t mess up on html
darn, so close
I’m voting for Biden. I’m not fighting it any longer. As soon as he’s elected, Covid will be back story and there will be harmony in the streets. Automatically, racial divide will somehow dissolve. The media and the lesser informed will feel at peace, like a baby with a bottle and a clean diaper. And, from a personal standpoint (shh!!!) the markets will rise or reach the previous high and churn out dividends. The democrats will have nothing to do with it but the markets hunger for calm and a calm market means growth. It’s personal. The media will spin out daily puff pieces and the silent majority will quietly go about their business.
Fast And we will have more economic intercourse!!
3b,
The media will paint a rosy picture and the masses will comply because it’s the media that controls the narrative.
Gary,
What’s the mask situation like these days in your neck of the woods? On your beautiful street, are people strutting around confidently or is it a bunch of lesser informed muppets still wearing masks in stores?
How about you… wear a mask at the grocery store lately?
So, taking the blue pill instead of the red? Decided on the comfy bed…….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7W2I9FGF9U
For Fast, 11:31
joyce,
Yes, I’m still wearing the mask but I can honestly say I’m in and around my house 98% of the time. My property is as pristine as could be (lots of time to mend, rake, mulch, etc.), minus the section of fence still to be repaired from the downed tree 10 days ago. My neighborhood, teeming with kids EVERYWHERE, has no masks to be found. I’m in sort of in a cul de sac neighborhood where there’s no through traffic. As for the marginal muppets, it appears as though they’re falling into place for the most part… I suppose.
PS – For the HTML delete tag, write your sentence as you normally would, leave it as such and place the tags before and after the word(s). Don’t alter the spaces.
Thanks
Can’t make this sh1t up. At least they brought forward to the cover and bolded the main risk.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1657853/000110465920073132/tm2022223-1_424b5.htm
Eddie,
The media will spin out daily puff pieces and the silent majority will quietly go about their business.
Didn’t the media freak everyone about Ebola? I believe there were also major panics over dips in stock market. Of course, the Obamacare and death panels (by some of the same ones that want to “cull” old people).
Things weren’t that different between Team Red vs Team Blue. Racism and police brutality were as prevalent and papered over. There were protests, militarized police response to protests, mass shootings, and apple pie.
https://twitter.com/noUpside
Renee DiResta tweeting about mask protests. Live broadcasts via social media at homes of health officials. Ugly
“The tech platforms know this happens. They coordinate in FB groups and now, livestream their harassment. The stakes are higher now. The cost of giving science-based guidance on *masks* in a pandemic shouldn’t be nuts live-streaming outside of your home.”
Not just happening in CA. This woman had protesters marching on her sidewalk at her home, some carrying loaded ARs.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/12/dr-amy-acton-resigns-after-helping-lead-ohio-aggressive-fight-against-coronavirus
How well connected is Hertz’s Board of Directors and Corp Officers? Which government managed pension plans and/or Economic Development Authorities will invest?
leftwing says:
June 15, 2020 at 12:56 pm
Can’t make this sh1t up. At least they brought forward to the cover and bolded the main risk.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1657853/000110465920073132/tm2022223-1_424b5.htm
leftwing,
Taking the blue pill, yes. The left are exhausting. The media and the puppies who follow are doing nothing but disrupting the business of the country. It’s better to let them think they won something while the rest of us quietly go about our affairs. I sort of think Trump feels the same. Why try to deal with millions of petulant children? All these companies, the NFL, NASCAR, etc. are in the business of making money so intelligent heads said, “Sure, why not?” Think of Frankie Pentangeli in the Godfather II when he said, “They kept saying Michael Corleone did this and Michael Corleone did that. So, I said, “Yeah, sure.” Why not? Sell the masses a sob story and move on. End of story.
Fast, at the end of the day I truly don’t care either. Lived most of my life already and (bad) decisions made today will really not affect me.
TBH, Biden + dems would be a godsend in November to my trading accounts.
Just need to make sure my kids are set. Not financially, they already are, but how to navigate the lies, guilt, and misdirection coming their way as the Left tries to extract their freedom and wealth over their lifetimes.
“Not just happening in CA. This woman had protesters marching on her sidewalk at her home, some carrying loaded ARs.”
Yeah, I know. How in the world can any jurisdiction allow a band of armed protestors to take over part of an American city?
Ooops, I see you were speaking about something else…..
Would anyone like to venture what Seattle’s and MSM’s response would be if it were armed Tea Party members taking over part of a city?
Literally have not heard one word on the armaments present in Seattle from the shrieking Left. The hypocrisy is mind bending.
More power to the protesting Right. About time. Looking forward to seeing some armed conflict in the streets.
Thats my boy Ed. They’ll let you back in hacky sack circle pronto.
leftwing,
I’m done with it. Authority caved and the flock is on the lose.
leftwing,
Just need to make sure my kids are set. Not financially, they already are, but how to navigate the lies, guilt, and misdirection coming their way as the Left tries to extract their freedom and wealth over their lifetimes.
Left, what freedoms and wealth are being extracted in your opinion? Tax rates have been trending down for a long time to the point of becoming a detriment to the society. Individual freedoms have been increasing a bit (LGBTQ rights, women’s rights, decriminalization of low-end drugs).
One major freedom that seems to be going down is the freedom to have some privacy. Everything is moving to the internet, and the media/activists (either blue team or red team) can destroy someone’s life easily.
Arm the children, it’s the only way.
From the CHAZ.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jr0ILcX9hY&feature=youtu.be
Back to real estate. In my mail today was a letter from our local realtor, says he has several desperate clients looking to buy in my neighborhood and would like to a do a virtual showing of my home.
I gather the flight from Manhattan continues….
Juice: Have them write a letter, as to why you should sell them your house, and require that they feed the squirrels.
Some one the freedom to have your own opinion and not be forced to choose one side or the other.
SACKED
https://www.bondbuyer.com/conference/calpub/speakers/robert-larkins
“Some one the freedom to have your own opinion and not be forced to choose one side or the other.”
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/06/15/raymond-james-lisa-alexander-videotaped-pacific-heights-black-lives-matter-sign-confrontation/
“I gather the flight from Manhattan continues….”
Was out with a mortgage broker over the weekend. West Orange and South Orange on fire. At least 15 competitve bids on one new listing, 30+ on the other. He cautioned me the real estate broker is known to underprice to produce a bidding situation but still…..
Juice, I believe it. Someone just purchased yet another awful shack in my hood where the owner died. place was so bad they needed to replace the roof and strip the second floor to the studs before selling as is. I watched pre-covid as this place had all of the prior owner’s…cough…horder…cough..cough stuff moved to a dumpster, and as they had a for sale sign up during this with grass 4ft high. I couldn’t believe it but someone closed on it a few weeks ago. Inventory is super tight, I have friends who recently accepted an offer on their condo in Jersey City, now they are looking for a house right away and pretty much there isn’t much available. The 3% rates are also playing a role as well.
Left, funny we are talking same market. Maplewood, South Orange, Millburn, Summit, Chatham are ridiculously hot right now. West Orange I’m not getting, the property values were in the dumps for so long because even by Essex county standards the property taxes are insane!
Jcer Any idea on how they did on the sale of the JC Condo?
In other news two of my friends kids were informed late last week that most of their companies will be going remote permanently, effective immediately.
Wait till the left learns how the months got their names. They will want to rename March , June, July, and August I bet
Left,
The couple told a guy that he was vandalizing someone’s property when he was marking something in chalk on his own home’s retaining wall. On top of that, they were BS’ing that they knew who lived there. Then they called the cops on him.
Almost like they’d call cops on a someone driving a nice car that they think “doesn’t belong”.
Which part of the video do you think was a “forced to choose one side or the other” issue?
In the last few days eBay has been taking down listings and sending warning letters to some sellers who have listings with Black Americana in the title for promoting racism and hatred. Meanwhile eBay has a category called Black Americana with over 10,000 listings.
Can’t make this up.
Wonder if it is a new eBay policy or is it a woke BLM ally employee doing this.
“Which part of the video do you think was a “forced to choose one side or the other” issue?”
I don’t know the zoning codes of Pacific Heights, SF.
I do know we are well down an Orwellian path when your wife is in a political disagreement with a neighbor and the husband is fired from his lontg time job because of it.
Which part of that doesn’t sound like coerced group think?
Agree with us or you are fired?
Banks have unlimited liquidity. Think about it this way. We are ALREADY in a position where the govt is in post-2008 crisis mode, and the tools are 10x+ more diverse and in scope.
There may be CLO’s, but just follow the price action of your favorite junk bond ETF…. it is not a indication of credit quality, but rather liquidity for such securities, and the Treasury is focusing its buying potential there, among other places.
As long as the market is open to borrowing for all manner of credits, there will be no crisis. As a related, but alternative example, view the Hertz IPO.
To be clear, I am not endorsing the govt’s actions; I am only describing conditions as of 4:33PM 6/15/20
Nomad says:
June 15, 2020 at 7:36 am
Chi,Curious to know your thoughts. Author is law (securities) prof at Berkeley. Would all the latest CLOs held on balance sheets of banks appear in latest Q? If not, is 10K only other place to look? Any way for bank to hold this stuff off balance sheet, SIV?
The freedom to fail.
SomeOne says:
June 15, 2020 at 2:56 pm
left: I saw the video yesterday, and I thought the husband was complicit (my memory could be wrong). That said, Ray Jay is retail and it is the equivalent of whether or not a media talent can overcome a gaffe. Usually the answer is whether or not advertisers begin to pull their support. In this instance, in the wealth management industry the attitude has to be shoot first and ask questions later.
That said, look at the video….. these people seem like constipated pricks of the highest order. It is so easy to fire the guy and settle out of court for wrongful termination.
Hard to believe these people live in SF….. from the standpoint of why would they want to?
leftwing says:
June 15, 2020 at 4:26 pm
“Which part of the video do you think was a “forced to choose one side or the other” issue?”
I don’t know the zoning codes of Pacific Heights, SF.
I do know we are well down an Orwellian path when your wife is in a political disagreement with a neighbor and the husband is fired from his lontg time job because of it.
Which part of that doesn’t sound like coerced group think?
Agree with us or you are fired?
chicagofinance
I agree. They seemed very obnoxious and condescending. Claiming they knew who lived in that house when the guy with the chalk has lived there for 18 years. They reminded me of many of my fellow townspeople when I lived in blue ribbon NJ
Chgo 30 billion of that clo crap is a big, big, number. I would think it should matter at some point, but who knows!!
The whole world has lost the f-cking minds.
Wells is considered the weakest capitalized of the banks…….. that said it really doesn’t matter….. I would be more concerned (not that I would) with a Euro Zone bank failure that impacts us. Also, literally anything possible can come out of China (financially)…..
You tell me though….. the Republican National Convention ends August 27th.
If the Orange One has the means to inflate the S&P 500 to an all time high (3,400)……. you don’t think he uses it?
Meaning he is standing on the podium reading the teleprompter at 9PM EDT…..
But Gary, What about the greatness?
Nice report from Seattle, probably this guys last.
https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1272697465242861569
He didnt report the biggest news which was Ben and Jerry drove the truck round and are giving out free Ice Cream.
Yeah, market is ugly tight right now. My brother bailed on a place when it turned out that the owner did most of the work himself, no permits, numerous code issues. They refused to fix anything, so my brother bailed when it was clear that there could have been dozens of other major issues that would involve ripping the walls apart. To give you an example, water to half the house was turned off, because if you turned it on, it was clear that water was pouring out of a pipe somewhere in the walls. Lots of massive code issues and really questionable construction.
Yet it goes under contract immediately after. Sure the seller isn’t planning on disclosing any of the disaster.
Grim,
A$$holes like that are why we have regulations/permits in place. Of course, he gets away with it still and some poor buyer is left holding the bag.
This jerkoff is the type to complain about permits as a rip-off, yet he has no problem ripping someone off with shoddy work.
Dude drove up from Florida to try to fix the problems himself. Tells you what you need to know.
I had a condo on the market for 9 months in a full service, white glove, high-rise in Eastern Bergen County for 9 months. Price started at $589,900. By March 15th the building stopped permitting showings, move ins and move outs. At that point my price was $484,900. On 6/1 building permitted showings again. Property went back on market at $484,900. Received 2 offers first day on market. Now under contract for $526,0000.
Drove up? Wow. This dude is as cheap as they come. I feel really bad for whoever got stuck with this. They are going to hate real estate for the rest of their life.
grim says:
June 16, 2020 at 8:24 am
Dude drove up from Florida to try to fix the problems himself. Tells you what you need to know.
Travel Mask Update:
Trip to S.C. Mask usage 100% at Maryland House, Interstate 95-Maryland
Mask usage about 10% in Madison, Virginia (rt 29). Walmart there had sign saying all employees and all customers must wear masks. About 50% employees without masks and virtually no customers wearing masks.
North Carolina- 95% wearing masks (Charlotte area)
South Carolina, Charlotte suburb, about 30% wearing masks.
Largest Monthly increase in Retail Sales….ever… in May
Grim – a living room waterfall is a very rare feature…
Grim,
If those buyers were smart, they would get the f out of dodge. NJ is about to get alot more expensive. Businesses won’t be so keen to pay local workers 150K when they can get others remotely for 75k. Smart businesses are doing this now.
Remember the nj economist buffoon saying the only buyers out there this year would be bottom feeders? It goes to show what great insight we get from “experts”. They are about as credible as the guy on the next barstool.
In the other hand, how is the nyc condo market looking? First it was covid and next it’s lawlessness. People can’t escape fast enough.
FabMax. For you
https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR1130LalAtbeuZMSgkX4BmuMezSUinpbuvy6i4foIoFCXWc9Hx1g35Dy0M&v=fAF9o1EWyFY
Ah but: https://youtu.be/mzekx_RgjcU
This ensures he’ll never ever die.
We were lucky. Music in 1992 kicked Ass.
I don’t understand. So if remote work was able to get wages lower (it won’t), wont assets become cheaper?
Listen, remote work is bs. If you think cutting edge businesses can survive with no company culture and a bunch of human droids making it happen, I have a bridge to nowhere for sale. These CEO’s dreaming of replacing their workforce with workers at half the cost and expecting to get the same results or better are f’ing morons. They will learn the hard way. The smart business leaders know this, but the one’s with no vision and only focused on cost will learn the hard way.
Was watching the Beastie boys documentary. They left nyc for a decade. MCA was the first to return, why, he just wanted to be a New Yorker again. He just liked the lifestyle. Could have lived anywhere, but wanted to come back for a reason. Some of you just don’t understand this….nyc state of mind.
Bystander says:
June 16, 2020 at 9:02 am
Grim,
If those buyers were smart, they would get the f out of dodge. NJ is about to get alot more expensive. Businesses won’t be so keen to pay local workers 150K when they can get others remotely for 75k. Smart businesses are doing this now.
Case in point: https://youtu.be/ycXD5gQrSIU
Wife and I saw these guys in Miami in nov of that tour.
Great times.
9:26- The west is a far different lifestyle than someone who lives in the City can really fathom and vice-versa. Folks out here have no clue the post-industrial splendor they are missing out on. I submit that the average (non-millionaire) lifestyle in NYC is pretty bleak.
Bystander: I was thinking the same thing. So flee NYC, to bid over asking for houses in towns close to NYC, when a significant number of these jobs are going to be permanently remote. If people were a little more thoughtful they would wait, or try and rent before buying. In 30 years condo example someone bid over asking in Ft. Lee, it’s not NYC, but as far as towns in north Jersey go it’s jam packed with people.
re: “They will learn the hard way”
No they won’t it’s all short term gain for long term pain.
Start Spreading The News, New Yorkers Are Leaving Today
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/06/11/new-york-realestate-miami-exodus-pandemic-and-protests/#47f2bce055dc
3b,
The answer is simple, everyone has MCA money. I did not know that. The amount of listings coming on market is insane. Two newer construction just went on sale in my area. Seller has been trying to get out since 2017 (could not sell close to even) after buying in late 2015. The other just bought home in late 2018 and now trying to get 15% more. I see lots of people trying to get out ofCT. Signs everywhere, unlike I have witnessed in years. They see the bleak future.
Looks like we are finally approaching the coffin corner. The next six months will be interesting to say the least.
I thought the high earners paying 13% NY taxes were never able to deduct SALT from their Federal returns due to AMT.
D-FENS says:
June 16, 2020 at 10:07 am
Start Spreading The News, New Yorkers Are Leaving Today
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/06/11/new-york-realestate-miami-exodus-pandemic-and-protests/#47f2bce055dc
The housing market is weird. Every time one guy sells, another one buys, and they both think they’re smart.
Can’t make this stuff up
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/06/15/ebay-employees-arrested-u-s-attorney-andrew-lelling-cyberstalking/
6 former eBay employees arrested for harassing a blogger. Former head of global security was one of those arrested. CEO of eBay at the time ordered employees to take care of the blogger. Feds notified eBay in August they were investigating. CEO resigns next month to pursue other interests. Coincidence?
Correction. CEO Allegedly ordered global security to take care of blogger.
Who is this guy and how is he making money off this…reads like an advertisement for Florida real estate (specifically miami). Hey, everyone is moving down to Miami and saving a ton of money. Sure, anyone that has been to Miami knows how f’ing expensive it is. Talking like a salesman that’s for sure.
D-FENS says:
June 16, 2020 at 10:07 am
Start Spreading The News, New Yorkers Are Leaving Today
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/06/11/new-york-realestate-miami-exodus-pandemic-and-protests/#47f2bce055dc
He was rather humble. He was an artist, his love was nyc. Some people love that life…sex and the city was popular for a reason.
Just to pick your brain and figure out where you are coming from. Where do you suggest people move to if they leave the nyc metro area? Where should they go?
Bystander says:
June 16, 2020 at 10:16 am
3b,
The answer is simple, everyone has MCA money
Expensive? What about the NJ 200 BILLION DOLLARS owed to the retirees of NJ that no one seems to have a plan on where it’s going to come from?
New Jersey is so financially underwater its almost as deep as the Mariana trench.
Former CEO sent texts to underlings to “take her down“.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/ex-ebay-employees-accused-of-harassment-with-live-bugs-bloody-pig-mask/ar-BB15vLOm
Ebay was great before PayPal existed. Then fees kept being tacked on. Money orders and checks were the payment, so reputation mattered as if you had lousy feedback no one was going to send you money. Once that was gone it became a disaster.
Phoenix,
Who isn’t in debt? Florida has debt issues. National govt just added trillions..
I guess that makes it okay right pumpy? As long as it’s lining your pockets it’s all good.
Pumps – it’s rare when you see a chart go straight up.
Last time was the Lehman collapse.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Phoenix,
Highly emotional purchases going on right now. NYC myopia for those running to safe, “open fields” of NJ/CT. NYC folks selling for big gains due to 2009-2014 weak dollar/ fed asset inflation programs. They just don’t get financial situation they walking into right now. Their tax bills will shoot up like crazy in next few years and job quality will continue downward. Only quote that applies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA
Speaking of Trillions.
About 8.55% of all outstanding mortgages or approximately 4.3 million mortgages sat in forbearance plans as of the first week of June.
Biggest percentage by state is NY.
Cashout refinancing is also spiking.
Powell says today the Fed doesn’t want to ‘run through the bond market like an elephant’
And what do you call setting up a primary market facility to buy $750 Billion of already existing corporate bonds?
Sounds like an elephant stamped to the exits for me…
Chicago what say you?
Bystander: Curious if it’s the renters fleeing NYC or condo/coop owners. Who is buying in NYC at this time?
Chi,
Thanks for your comments on The Atlantic article.
Link in the article: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/who-owns-us-clo-securities-20190719.htm
No mark to market on the CLOs which I did not know. Shows who owns the CLOs – banks (obviously) but mutual funds, pension funds.
What happens when government decides not to prop up all this stuff or selects some to sacrifice so the others can survive?
Juice, were they not going to use 7:1 leverage for the subprime and 10:1 on the IG rated stuff? $750B becomes at least $5T. I don’t get how any of this cannot end in a way far worse than 2007-08.
Oz Powell’s intentions are spittle. He is the perfect spineless crony to usher in the fall..
3% 30 yr mortgages and fear fueling the suburban markets. No one cares about remote work, they know they have a job today and at some point in the future they will be forced back to the office. Companies are already starting to plan for the return to the office.
The cost of a million dollar mortgage is like 30k per year, if you factor the tax deduction it’s less, for the type of person taking a million dollar loan the real cost is probably closer 24k, considering a top bracket write off of 750k. Truth be told with the deduction the property taxes are likely the bigger expense since you can no longer take a deduction. People coming from urban areas are feeling cramped and can still get enough money from selling that they likely can more than pay for a suburban home(where prices barely recovered). Most will take a good portion of the cash and stick it in their pocket and take a mortgage while they can get it for 3%.
Nomad – I have lost track is this the 12th or 13th new lending facility the FED has created since March?
Our central bank is now wading into corporate credit markets for the first time since the 1950s, they are now picking winners and losers again, but it isn’t the banks this time, it’s approx 560 American Companies that are rated BBB- or higher, and they are going to buy across the spectrum.
It’s good to be a gangsta….
JCer,
The cost of a million dollar mortgage is like 30k per year, if you factor the tax deduction it’s less, for the type of person taking a million dollar loan the real cost is probably closer 24k, considering a top bracket write off of 750k.
On a related note, does the increase in standard deduction (along with cap on state taxes) mess up these calculations? 10k on taxes, maybe 10k on interest, and still below 24k? People with lower mortgage balances will have lower chances of writing off beyond the standard deduction. Are there big pockets that are still there that the tax programs don’t catch?
City prices are softening but are still quite high. My perception is the folks buying think they are getting a bargain because prices are 5-10% below peak. I suspect people who were house shopping in the city before covid are jumping on the opportunity. People with children are looking to get out, it is the impetus. Being trapped in an apartment with their children is making people yearn for space. A lot of the city folk with kids rented places in the hudson valley, the poconos, etc and now have a taste of living outside of the city.
3b,
Hard to believe that renters suddenly jumped into buying mode. There were still thousands of sales in April/May in NYC. Free money floating everywhere and people think NYC is cheap ala 911. It only takes a few ticks up % of new buyers per town to flip real estate market. Fat, pudgy realtor hubris is also happening right now. “Heavy interest” and “calls”..we will see hard numbers in fall.
Someone, the rich don’t tend to take the standard deduction. Most have other deductions and more complicated investments with pass-through income and deductions. Also forget it if you own an investment property, between depreciation and expenses most of these types of investments are almost all deduction.
Bystander/Jcer: Not all will be coming back to the city, and it appears a significant number won’t be coming back as in permanent remote.
I know of two firms at the moment who are in the process of determining how much space they will require as their lease renewals are coming up in the near future. It would be ironic if someone who recently purchased in NYC finds that their job is now permanently remote.
3b,
Some will, some won’t. In the end, enough companies will decide remote only which will suppress wages and corp real estate market. Those left here, without Daddy’s money or a alpha earning spouse, will see lifestyle eroded away. They will work years longer and have no appreciation on their homes so retirement will tale a hit too. All for what? Pizza and bagels?
Wow, just checking my town real estate stats. Out of 500 homes on market, 50% went on sale since mid-April. Break it down further, 40% (out of 50%) in last two weeks. Talk about a rush to exit. Everyone trying to GTFO.
Bystander: I agree. Also I have seen some of the recent homebuyers in my town, they are closer to 50 than 40, young kids, big mortgages assuming 20 percent down. A lot of the income going to mortgage and taxes, perhaps not as much going to retirement savings. I guess the thought is the house will be their retirement savings. Not a good strategy in my opinion.
SBA wants to give me $80k at 3.5% 30y, no payments first 12m, no collateral.
Not a bad deal.
We told 3b this for years…and he told us nope. No families in the suburbs, they are dead, only city.
He has an obsession with hoping north jersey real estate will collapse. Why, I don’t know.
“People with children are looking to get out, it is the impetus. Being trapped in an apartment with their children is making people yearn for space”
Yet, the homes are not empty, correct? Someone buys it.
This is not Detroit, where people just abandoned homes/neighborhoods. Sorry, won’t happen here.
Bystander says:
June 16, 2020 at 1:40 pm
Wow, just checking my town real estate stats. Out of 500 homes on market, 50% went on sale since mid-April. Break it down further, 40% (out of 50%) in last two weeks. Talk about a rush to exit. Everyone trying to GTFO.
Do you understand how city growth works? Do you think the same businesses from 1980 are the ones driving it today? It’s a constant shuffle of people and businesses. Old move out, new move in.
Those businesses can leave NYC, they will be replaced. It’s not like the business community is going to abandon the best place to do business in the world. Sorry.
Don’t worry, WFH trend will be laughed at in a few years. Remember that time when people actually thought offices would vanish and everyone would work from home like droids. Lmao…that was funny.
3b says:
June 16, 2020 at 1:07 pm
Bystander/Jcer: Not all will be coming back to the city, and it appears a significant number won’t be coming back as in permanent remote.
I know of two firms at the moment who are in the process of determining how much space they will require as their lease renewals are coming up in the near future. It would be ironic if someone who recently purchased in NYC finds that their job is now permanently remote.
Bystander, most of the people in my circle are early 40’s. The vast majority have significant equity in their homes, probably 50-60%. They are all refinancing and will lower payments stretch out debt, I’d argue to maintain a higher standard of living. On the GTFO front I’ve thought about it and haven’t even owned my home very long. Something about putting an easy tax free ~300k in my pocket sounds appealing but then where would I go? Taxes are the killer, assuming on a million dollar home 20k in taxes, when they refi, borrow 500k they have a mortgage liability of 15k per year before the deduction, it’s peanuts for these folks property taxes are the bigger drain. Worse than than most don’t have a 2% property tax rate, most are 2.5-3%, so taxes are 25-30k with a mortgage interest liability of 15k per annum. Paid down principal isn’t terribly relevant unless we think housing values long term will go negative. Taxes, Interest, maintenance and improvements are all sunk costs you do not get back in any meaningful way.
In housing there are a lot costs and exceedingly little of it is a capital investment, most improvements are no longer considered new after 3-5 years so that 100k kitchen you put in 5 years ago is now out of style and maybe worth 10k in resale value and it only reduces further as time goes on. 3% fixed money makes some of the housing prices we talk of irrelevant as the cost delta between this market and even the cheapest viable markets is just not that much in real terms to a professional, even with the corps trying to squeeze us.
Lets say it’s half(which it isn’t but just to make a point), So instead of a million you spend 500k, mortgage payment is $1700 instead of $3400 but because a sizable amount of this is interest and is deductible in real terms($1000 vs $2000). So it’s 12k a year before any tax benefits, you lose cashflow but provided the value at the minimum remains constant over time(if you make a prudent purchase I believe this will hold long term) at least at the end you have an asset worth twice as much. If there is any inflation in housing your asset will be worth more than double. Conversely if the value drops significantly you are worse off(In the long term I view this as unlikely). The housing price thing sounds scary but it does not drive the bus. Property taxes elsewhere would be like 6k on the 500k house where in jersey the million dollar home is saddled with 25k per year. NYC metro in general is held hostage by the government, we have this same scenario in LI, Westchester, NNJ, etc. We also have high income taxes as well. I’d say this market demands a 20-30% premium at most salary brackets, if that really does disappear it’s not so much housing prices I worry about it is the solvency of our government which becomes the focus and we are dead meat.
Companies have been trying the value location concept for 20 years and it hasn’t worked, why do we think magically it will work now? Here is the issue most people don’t want to take 20-30% less because at the end of the day despite costs being lower, certain costs aren’t. Take sending your kids to college, the price is the price. Or perhaps retirement you will live where you will live and coming from a high cost location you will sell your house and likely have a larger 401k as well. These corps have a very hard time getting certain skillets and experience in these cheaper markets…. Some of these companies have needed to fly consultants at their expense it is ridiculous from what I’ve seen.
Family member lives in Paramus, builder bought the house next door. 2 bedroom ranch on a postage size lot for 500K, dropped in a 6,000 sq ft house and sold it for 1.4m.
With the amount of new construction, if prices aren’t crashing now, they will not. Simple as that.
JCer says:
June 16, 2020 at 12:53 pm
City prices are softening but are still quite high. My perception is the folks buying think they are getting a bargain because prices are 5-10% below peak. I suspect people who were house shopping in the city before covid are jumping on the opportunity. People with children are looking to get out, it is the impetus. Being trapped in an apartment with their children is making people yearn for space. A lot of the city folk with kids rented places in the hudson valley, the poconos, etc and now have a taste of living outside of the city.
Can’t be. People don’t want to live in jersey. They don’t want expensive housing. Yet, the market says otherwise.
And don’t call this individual stupid….they are buying at 1.4 million dollar home. Def have to have some money smarts to be in that position.
Trick says:
June 16, 2020 at 2:35 pm
Family member lives in Paramus, builder bought the house next door. 2 bedroom ranch on a postage size lot for 500K, dropped in a 6,000 sq ft house and sold it for 1.4m.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/06/nj-cops-were-getting-haircuts-at-makeshift-barbershop-in-police-station-during-coronavirus-lockdown.html
I was speaking to a friend stuck in Brooklyn with children. Once a week they take their kid out to the parking garage to ride a bike. That has to be difficult for a 7 year old.
Imagine how on point my call for the housing market to go on fire in early 2020’s would be if there was no pandemic. It’s already on fire. Admit it, I made epic calls years in advance.
“One of my missions during the pandemic is to snag a property deal. Understandably, there was a lot of fear from investors at the end of March and April. But this fear has subsided with each leg up in the stock market.
Given the real estate market does not go down or up as quickly as the stock market, I believe there are a lag and an opportunity for those with cash or who are preapproved for a mortgage. There is a chance you can still buy property from a seller who is still thinks maximum doom is upon us.
Unfortunately, the window of opportunity to buy real estate at a discounted price is closing fast. I’ve been talking to my lender a couple of times a week and he’s said he’s seen a dramatic uptick in purchase applications in May.
According to my lender, the ratio of loan applications went from 90% refinancing, 10% purchase applications in April, to 75% purchase applications, 25% refinancing applications in May. As of June 16, he is seeing purchase applications tick even higher to roughly 80% of all applications.
We can see the latest lagging data in the Mortgage-Purchase Applications Purchase Index below. I believe the index will be even higher next month.
That’s right. During the middle of a global pandemic, the desire by Americans to purchase property is at an 11-year high. As these purchase applications are approved, these buyers will be armed with their billions of preapproval dollars to buy property in June and beyond.
In other words, it is highly likely the Spring buying season will have simply shifted by 3-4 months to the Summer and Fall months. Remember, it takes about 3-4 weeks to get preapproved.”
Anoyone have a smoke detector recommendation? I currently have hard wired Kiddie brand with 9V backup. I am wondering if I should just replace with same unit or go for fancier Smoke, heat and CO detectors all in one.
re” SBA want’s to loan me $80k.
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner..
2:33 I truly enjoy your posts. I look at it like Critical Mass.
the benches are so deep with talent up & down the eastern seaboard.
Come mid-July when companies start to file their Q2, we will start to see the white collar layoffs increase. Those 45 and over whose skills are not in high demand, things will get challenging. Even with the cost cutting from the GFC, there remains fat and unproductive labor to cut.
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1272970242201989121
Hilton laying off 22% of corporate:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1272976398458720256
Walking the end of organized activities has city kids climbing the walls. No rock climbing, karate, various lessons, etc the live of people in the cities even kids is predicated on not being at home, home is where you sleep and eat(sometimes). It is hard even for people with 3 and 4 year olds, once they are really moving if you have limited space it is very tough. Even worse so many people living in these high rises with gym spaces, pools, playrooms, playgrounds that are now closed as a result of COVID now are trapped in their small spaces, it totally runs counter of why people chose to live there…
Nomad, my company announced yesterday they are freezing salaries, no Merit increase this year. Better than my friend who got a 15% pay cut. Problem with doing either, you demoralize your staff. I view it as unnecessary as I think COVID has accelerated our business, it strikes me as pure opportunism as I work on something that will bring in 100m in revenue per year and I helped them close the sale as did my colleagues, biggest contract in company history and they aren’t going to take care of us. This isn’t going to make me want to go the extra mile to make the company successful……
They are not stopping at BBB-…. they are going across the board but using ETF’s so that there is not the appearance of explicit bias…. yest they are possibly going to individual credits, but I think that would be pretty hard to explain…. it is a small leap in focus to go after equities, but a HUGE statement…… if so, Trump is at fault….
Juice Box says:
June 16, 2020 at 12:43 pm
Nomad – I have lost track is this the 12th or 13th new lending facility the FED has created since March?
Our central bank is now wading into corporate credit markets for the first time since the 1950s, they are now picking winners and losers again, but it isn’t the banks this time, it’s approx 560 American Companies that are rated BBB- or higher, and they are going to buy across the spectrum.
It’s good to be a gangsta….
client in CT receiving $150K…. his CPA said sit on it a bit…. wash it through your books and PRESTO instant down payment on CT house….. not my recommendation, but this guy is a huge earner and I think he can finesse it….
grim says:
June 16, 2020 at 2:16 pm
SBA wants to give me $80k at 3.5% 30y, no payments first 12m, no collateral.
Not a bad deal.
People completely don’t understand how expensive college is…..
3b says:
June 16, 2020 at 1:48 pm
Bystander: I agree. Also I have seen some of the recent homebuyers in my town, they are closer to 50 than 40, young kids, big mortgages assuming 20 percent down. A lot of the income going to mortgage and taxes, perhaps not as much going to retirement savings. I guess the thought is the house will be their retirement savings. Not a good strategy in my opinion.
Chgo: I agree. I don’t know how people are going to do it, and or why they will put huge student loan debt on their kids. I have a friend of mine, they have twins both in their late 50s; the twins just turned 7!!
chi, 3b, college savings is an endurance game. At least 10k per year per kid since birth needs to be saved, if not 15 or 20k which is probably what’s needed to fully fund college. I figure with tuition inflation outpacing investment gains it will at least take the sting out.
JCer, that sucks, but they got you by the bxlls. Maybe as a rain maker that trend reverses for you as this storm clears out.
The financial vise just gets turned tighter. I know several who are going to have very significant life changes. The older ones have no savings and minimal equity in their home and it’s not if, but when. Another who had kids later in life with a stay at home and even though he has been canned from his last two semi-mid-level positions, still insists on vehicles he can’t remotely afford. Plans to pay for college with inheritance.
4:15 why do ya think I’m goin back to work!
I’m perfectly happy to pay for the college experience.
I just hope it’s not all ‘online’.
We have reached End Of Days
https://www.manscaped.com/collections/collection-all
Nomad, I wish I were the “rainmaker”/sales people, I’m a technologist. Those people already got paid, they get commission, the contract was 1bn over a decade software and services so they can probably retire. We were the solutions architects on the ground with the client designing the solutions, pitching existing products to fill gaps, and designing a cloud strategy to support a massive roll out in a very short time. The client doubted our technical prowess initially so we were sent to convince them we could do what they needed. To me it’s just sad a company with no revenue issue is going to preemptively tighten their belt which likely causes our best people to leave, I assume it means no new hires as well.
I’m not really complaining, I’m paid well, others are not. Between what the wife and I make money isn’t a concern(the wife and I are both cheap, I consider cheapness to be proportional to income so we do spend but not even close to what we bring in), the amount of hours worked are but that’s a different story entirely. When we consider the family money on both sides we are fortunate to not have to worry about money.
JCer,
Sorry to hear. I was told by a true genius that talent is this area will always command a premium. Management is downright diabolical right now. They are not stupid. They know it will cause lower morality but the savings make it worth the shot. They want to see how employees react. They will watch turnover percentage closely and see if it ticks up. They know labor market conditions and will use it against you. On your other post, I agree that it is the taxes in this area that will get you, not necessarily the cost of house. Taxes/tolls/transit/line items (like sewer) are about to get much worse. It is a slow march. It will be drip by drip over a decade and then you will realize how much it cost you to stay in this area. On location strategy, lots of factors but state tax giveaways are right up there. I think it remains experimental based on when and where talent is needed. Alot of tax and compliance experts needed with FATCA and Dodd Frank back in 2012. Now, most corps are moving those role elsewhere. IT gets shoestring budgets to maintain apps. Don’t see anything on horizon that will change their plans.
ExEssëx says:
June 16, 2020 at 9:20 am
We were lucky. Music in 1992 kicked Ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MGw7Ekqmec
6:35 Legend.
1993-1994 also kicked a%%
The day Bush released their first single it was over……derivative sh!t followed by The Spice Girls
Golf nuts – anyone played Pebble Beach?
6:48 true. I’m amazed at how – once you trek great eras for music you see it’s literally 4 years here and there sprinkled throughout decades.
I’m sorry to say music is terrible again. My teen likes quality jams spanning 1978-90s mostly post punk, early pop punk. CBGBs era is rich.
Case in point: https://youtu.be/eTxXEwtSmZ4
ExEssex
Never played PB, but I would suggest that you go play Presidio in SF first. It’s a cheap warm up and will give you a better idea if you can play the wind up there. Put the driver away, take a 3W and keep it low.
I will give Donnie this. I played Trump Bedminster and he knows how to run a Golf Course.
JCer,
I wonder if we work for the same company? I got pretty much the same message yesterday. Also that client type sounds very familiar.
I got dragged to a Television Concert in London back in 92. Not my music so I bailed halfway through.
Memorable night for other reasons. Got into a fight on the train home. Police called before the train left the station and the other guy got booted. Got back on the train and its now 20 mins late. The doors close and I am standing there looking at the 15 guys he was on the Bachelor Party with. Happiest words I ever heard were “Sorry about that, he’s a bit of an AH0le, we didn’t want to bring him, but our wives made us!”
Jcer Too much nonsense with college in the suburbs. My kids all went to NJ state schools, we paid 100 percent, as long as they every course was B or better. All graduated at the top of their class. One did MBA, we helped with that as well.
I told my kids if they wanted to go out of state or private, they would have to pay the difference. All the years out here, I never understood the our schools are the best! It’s worth the taxes. These same parents then turn around and send their kids to Univ RI, Univ Delaware, James Madison and all the rest. Makes no sense to me. And I know many parents with the big house and expensive cars in the drive way, and their kids are loaded down with loans, or the parents have home equity loans up the butt.
Our kids are all doing well, no loans for them or us.
So Mrs Fab is out negotiating a sale. After a long Hiatus, 800K price point is red hot with stuff is shifting in days.
Reasons to sell we came up with.
Covid death or getting the Eff out of here
Recently Laid off
Writing on the wall lay offs.
Honestly better off elsewhere.
Take advantage of the market.
We have new construction in town under contract at 1.2Mil, split lot and they just finished Framing. Thats pretty much unheard of here. This has driven the contractors tear down number up to 500-550K.
I drove through a neighboring town and the 1Mil plus have the landscapers blowing out the yards and the framers blowing out the extensions. Will be interesting to see Permit numbers for these months.
Back to reality. An interesting read, nothing suprising just more confirmation that the RWers are taking advantage of the mayhem. Add in the shooting in Albuquerque and we get an accurate view of the right.
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1272987008047239169
Yes Morrissey is Sh1t.
To redress the balance. Not sure of I posted this last week. The Cheshire Cat grin on Dave Grohl as he is living out his childhood fantasy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBcVuN2Kr-s
JCer, you sound like you are in good shape and your kids will benefit immensely. What I am curious to know is does WFH work for someone like you should you wish to leave current employer and find another top tier opportunity if you No longer live in NJ? Flyover actually has some great places with schools as good as if not better than NJ. Flyover also offers up some great state colleges at reasonable prices. Overland Park KS. Omaha, Columbus Oh and Indianapolis come to mind and good healthcare should you need it. Different value system too and for the most part, none of the arrogance Good pizza and bagels are harder to find but when you do, it may be as good or even better. Now if you need to be in an office, that’s a different story, less opportunity in flyover but also less competition.