From the Star Ledger:
Election 2020: When could we know the election results in N.J.?
While New Jersey isn’t a swing state when it comes to the hotly contested presidential election, there are plenty of races that voters will be watching closely.
So how long will it take election officials to count ballots?
“The more people who cast the ballot that was mailed to them,the more likely we are to have completed results sooner,” said Alicia D’Alessandro, spokeswoman for the secretary of state. “The more people who vote in person, the longer the ballot counting process will extend beyond Election Day.”
And people are voting in droves.
New Jersey election officials have received more than 3.5 million mail-in ballots as of Monday. That’s more than half of the 6 million mail-in ballots that were sent out to active registered voters.
The counties have already started counting, thanks to a new law that allows them to start 10 days before Election Day,helping to speed up the process.
Well Lib – I lost our bet. Joe Biden made it to election day on the ballot. I admit I was quite wrong about that one. It turns out that Biden really was the perfect candidate for the DNC.
So disconnected, so maliable, so lacking any sort of conviction. He is the perfect representation of the modern DNC.
Happy Election day to all! Those of you who called yourselves Democrats, this will be the last day that you are able to fool yourself that the DNC is your party. It all comes apart for the left now.
Next up – Dismantling the establishment GOP. Just as putrid as those on the left.
Go Vote!
Enjoy is will
“Trump Can’t Win – episode 2” starts tonight. Can’t wait!
Still amazed that Trump wasn’t assassinated. Lost that bet.
Dead Man Walkin’
Imagine this scenario. You wake up to screaming. Your wife is yelling at you, yanks off your blanket, accuses you of having a “secret” bank account. You go to your computer to show her no such thing exists, she calls your “police” department, they rush 4 armed men and start screaming for you to leave. “Don’t resist” they tell you. So you go. You return later, your valuables are missing. You tell this to a judge. The judge asks you ” can you prove she took it?” You ask the judge, it was you that issued the restraining order based on a lie, how can I prove she took it when it was YOUR LAW ENFORCEMENT that YOU ordered that allowed the CRIMINAL, your ex wife (now) to LOOT and TERRORIZE me.
F’n Crickets.
” Ever single flagship store on 5th Avenue in NYC is boarded up, all have extra security already and now retailers are fearing for the worst because they have been looted several times in the last 6 months All across the USA the police are told to stand down. In California every day the looters walk into stores and clean them out because they don’t prosecute anymore.”
Do you think for one minute about any store, company, or house that gets looted? Nope, not me. Law enforcement enabled a criminal to steal everything I owned.
I will eat popcorn and watch it burn. Don’t expect a tear.
“All across the USA the police are told to stand down.”
They did not “stand down” at my house. Arrogant bastards. Lied right to my face and threatened me in order to be “heroes.”
Bring it back to the wild wild west. It’s all good.
SET PATH=C:\NET
C:\NET\net initialize
C:\NET\gfy.exe
C:\NET\TrumpSux.exe
C:\NET\BidenSux.exe
C:\NET\Loot.exe
C:\NET\Riot.exe
C:\NET\StandDown.exe.
C:\NET\Idon’tCare.exe
C:\NET\net start
I have no idea what’s going to happen. The only thing I do know is that the Republican party is now the party of the working class and the Democrat party is the party of progressive soc1alism. Donald Trump has transformed the party to become an all inclusive tent now as I’ve seen Hispanic and Black America supporting him in ways I never thought possible. I never thought it would happen but this man has achieved the impossible. The democrat party is no longer recognizable and no longer holds the classical American ideals in its heart.
Phoenix
This may make you smile
https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/13088988/husband-exposes-pregnant-wife-affair-baby-shower/
Trump’s dastardly election day plan to steal the eleciton.
https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-lures-progressive-voters-away-from-polling-places-by-setting-up-statues-of-columbus
Ex:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eJrlezLvWnU
Hopefully this can get you through the mid-morning…….
https://youtu.be/aDHdqMlWEzQ?t=153
The market’s opinion of reaching November 3rd……
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC
Draft Kings asked everyone who they think would win and sorted responses (350k) by state.
https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192
Went to Walmart this morning. Still an awesome place to people watch. Lots of employees walking around with their noses out of the mask or the mask across their chin like a face diaper. And I enjoyed watching the ones with masks on pull them down to talk, and then pull the mask back up when they finished and the person they spoke to would then pull theirs down to reply.
Today marks a nu start:
https://youtu.be/Cdhvw9rj3Dw
I don’t know what the right answer is in terms of voting today, but I do know the avg American has to step the f’k up and better themselves. They cry and obsess over the rich. Meanwhile, these individuals aren’t even employable. You lose money hiring them because they suck at life. That’s the real problem no one wants to talk about, how lost some of these people are.
And people like AOC feed into this bs and think the rich guy is the problem. Yes, some of them are, but most rich are hard working. That’s why they aren’t poor.
Went to Walmart this morning. Still an awesome place to people watch. Lots of employees walking around with their noses out of the mask or the mask across their chin like a face diaper. And I enjoyed watching the ones with masks on pull them down to talk, and then pull the mask back up when they finished and the person they spoke to would then pull theirs down to reply.
A national mask mandate will fix this
Whatever happens today, more accurately this month, MAGA is here to stay. Freedom, free speech, liberty, Stars and Stripes, the whole deal.
Hiding behind censorship, political correctness, sucking up to China, greievance culture, you can have it.
I actually think trump will win. In the end, in the states that matter, I think Biden will fail to mobilize ye numbers. The contrived and corrupt process that led to him being the candidate is apparent. He represents career politics, the lobby, selling out America. Hatred of MAGA alone will not be enough to carry him.
Galloway’s comments on office space in the future. Thinks AirB&B will get into industry so people can get out of there house here and there to rent an office occasionally. At end says we are in first wave. More comments from him next week on subsequent waves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkWFeSmfAnA
BRT
Can’t legislate away stoopid.
I think it is really close. Essentially, whoever can pull the greater number of dirty tricks will win the day.
The only thing that remains to be expressed is the level of outrage that the country feels about what has happened to our cities. The vote is going to be a confidential opinion for the masses to see. The only better metric is how people invest money, but that is imperfect as well.
I am interested.
TruthIsTheEnemy says:
November 3, 2020 at 10:45 am
I actually think trump will win. In the end, in the states that matter, I think Biden will fail to mobilize ye numbers. The contrived and corrupt process that led to him being the candidate is apparent. He represents career politics, the lobby, selling out America. Hatred of MAGA alone will not be enough to carry him.
269 – 269 . . .
Trump keeps everything from last time except he loses AZ, MI, and WI.
Or, Biden gets the 270th electoral vote by picking off the NE-District 3 electoral vote, so it is 270-268.
But, really . . . most likely 289-249. Biden takes back blue wall (MI, WI, and PA) plus AZ.
Without Covid . . . Trump 322-Biden 216 (Trump keeps all from 2016, but adds MN and NV for strong economy).
I was talking to a friend of mine insurance underwriter, says auto insurance companies are being hit hard with calls from people who are now permanently working from home, and no longer use the car for travel to work. Policies are being adjusted accordingly, but companies will look to raise rates to make up the shortfall.
Fewer claims though, so it cuts both ways.
That said, the driving force (pun intended) behind insurance profitability is a well yielding fixed income market…….. ooops
3b says:
November 3, 2020 at 11:25 am
I was talking to a friend of mine insurance underwriter, says auto insurance companies are being hit hard with calls from people who are now permanently working from home, and no longer use the car for travel to work. Policies are being adjusted accordingly, but companies will look to raise rates to make up the shortfall.
Homeboken,
Well Lib – I lost our bet. Joe Biden made it to election day on the ballot.
I admit I was quite wrong about that one. It turns out that Biden really was the perfect candidate for the DNC.So disconnected, so maliable, so lacking any sort of conviction. He is the perfect representation of the modern DNC.
Seems like you are having trouble coming to terms that a winner of the presidential primary stays in the race? Anyway, we win some bets and we lose some bets. Why so bitter?
He meant Covid-19.
Biden as dead he may be is not HRC. Blue Wall ladies actually like Biden.
Comey letter didn’t come this time.
Laptop story didn’t make much impact except keeping OAN, Qanon crowd. But it shows how incredible power Qanon has. They can start a riot, a civil war very easily. This was the test.
However believe Dems got shifted to the left is on a weed. Some of them may have rightfully so, but the Dem machine has moved to the center. It shows from the Lincoln group support, long time GOP members’ endorsements (so many to add here).
Find the book ‘Fourth turning’ for the next chapter that will be written
Letter from Murphy Admin to Department of Corrections seems to indicate that some of the prisoners scheduled to be released 11/4/2020 are in fact COVID-19 positive. It literally says they’re leaving them at train or bus stations? WTF?
It’s on the NJ Senate website. I tried posting the link but it’s blocked.
I think he is wrong, obviously. I just don’t the avg person being happy working from
Home in the long term. They will slowly forget what it’s like to interact with a human being, other than their immediate family if they are fortunate to have one. For someone single, work from home is long walk towards suicide. You need interaction, we are human beings, not robots. Keep someone isolated long enough, and they will go crazy over time.
Btw, if this remote work takes over, it will simply drive up the price of residential real estate, passing the cost from the employer to employee.
Nomad says:
November 3, 2020 at 10:49 am
Galloway’s comments on office space in the future. Thinks AirB&B will get into industry so people can get out of there house here and there to rent an office occasionally. At end says we are in first wave. More comments from him next week on subsequent waves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkWFeSmfAnA
At least Hillary had some standing in minority communities. Biden does not. It’s easy to argue that anything Biden gained with never trumpers was lost on minorities.
And I wouldn’t as quickly dismiss the Biden Inc. corruption. They had no plausible defense. It cemented him as a cockroach career politician.
Biden’s best issue was COVID and he’s now fallen inline with trump. He hasn’t mentioned a lockdown in weeks.
At least Hillary had some standing in minority communities. Biden does not. It’s easy to argue that anything Biden gained with never trumpers was lost on minorities.
And I wouldn’t as quickly dismiss the Biden Inc. corruption. They had no plausible defense. It cemented him as a c0ckroach career politician.
Biden’s best issue was COVID and he’s now fallen inline with trump. He hasn’t mentioned a lockdown in weeks.
O’Biden’s Covid plan: See Trump’s Covid plan.
tRumP’s pLaN
iT’s rIgHT hErE oN tHiS nApKin
F*ck Trump.
In unguarded moments, Mr. Trump has for weeks told advisers that he expects to face intensifying scrutiny from prosecutors if he loses. He is concerned not only about existing investigations in New York, but the potential for new federal probes as well, according to people who have spoken with him.
While Mr. Trump has not aired those worries in the open, he has railed against the democratic process, raising baseless doubts about the integrity of the vote.
“He’s utterly terrified of losing his immunity from criminal prosecution,” wrote conservative attorney and onetime Trump voter-turned-Lincoln Project co-founder George Conway.
Biden’s big addition to the plan is the hide in your basement part. That is a great look and will win over a lot of votes. He wants to be the leader of the free world and is hiding from a virus in his basement.
Scaramucci interview. Says right after election, DT intended to act presidential. Explains some of his behaviors as president. AS says economy can’t handle tax increase and does not think Biden would raise and would get advice not to do so.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elections-2020-biden-wont-push-tax-hike-even-if-theres-a-blue-wave-anthony-scaramucci-193410528.html
Scott Galloway interviews Steve Schmidt from The Lincoln Project. Schmidt thinks Carlson will run in ’24. Greater extremism from the far right.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-prof-g-show-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000496807033
Biden is gonna win.
Propaganda industry really ran out of bullets if that’s the best they have. I’m sure it was an anonymous high level administration official who was there source. Like the fraud who recently wrote the book and was a nobody. And who was being paid by fake news outlets. No journalistic standards st all. Enquirer is much better.
Trump’s currently winning New Hampshire:
https://www.yahoo.com/elections
Savor the flavor eddie.
Some very long voting lines out there.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/votinglines?src=hash&f=live
4:49 chumps. Vote by mail. Ftw
“I think it is really close. Essentially, whoever can pull the greater number of dirty tricks will win the day…The only better metric is how people invest money, but that is imperfect as well.”
Almost in all cash in my trading account…kept a small piece of my LYFT Prop 22 trade after it popped and my Rochester criminal short. Both green, otherwise I’m flat out neutral…may dabble in futures overnight depending on early results, have my early data points set.
Fcuked around a little in PredictIt, can’t put more than $850 at risk in any one trade but took some there. Spent a lot of time pulling apart specific polls over the last few days.
Independents will be key. Some states, AZ, are a third indie. When we are talking margins of less than 1% and a lopsided wild card in the Senate race (Gifford/Kelly v McSally) having 1/3 of all voters independent is a big wild card even for the best constructed poll.
It’s the only narrow pathway DJT can wish upon.
The last 5-7 hrs on PredictIt have not been kind to DJT in swing states. Again, small dollar bets, but money down nonetheless FWIW.
PredictIt is mostly small dollar bets but it does track closely with the odds you would see on more liquid higher limit offshore sites like betfair and pinnacle. Its watching these sites which makes me surprised that anyone can have any confidence about landslide like predictions. Biden was at imputed odds of 62% this morning and its been close to that for a month. HRC was at 70% same time in ’16. It will be close.
“Grim says:
November 3, 2020 at 6:17 am
Still amazed that Trump wasn’t assassinated. Lost that bet.”
Despite his best efforts at political suicide, he managed to get to today. Amazing.
The man mocked Beyoncé and Lebron the day before the election. Is he trying to get people to come out and vote against him? Beyoncé’s fans are as fanatical as the trumpets who show up at rallies.
Long night…
East Coast polls closing soon. Who wants to bet the MSM starts calling states even though the mail in ballots are not counted?
Texas is going to be interesting.
Harris County has passed 1.5M votes. 1.7 could seal the deal.
Fort Bend is the first county in Texas to pass 70% turnout.
7,500 voters per hour are voting in Bexar County.
Texas is looking GOOD.
https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1323723562532904964
The Trump hate is strong in Ohio. It’s going to go exactly how I illustrated it.
The number of Americans who were recorded as having given up their citizenship or U.S. residency soared to 5,816 in the first six months of 2020, compared with 2,072 in all of 2019, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service. In the third quarter, the numbers dropped dramatically to about 800, as embassies curbed services because of the pandemic.
Such data is often delayed by months and can include people who left the United States in earlier years. It includes people who gave up their citizenship or residency for a wide variety of reasons; changes to tax laws for citizens living overseas are also a major contributor to the increase, experts say. But immigration lawyers and groups catering to aspiring expatriates say the jump also mirrors a surge they’ve seen in recent months related to the national turmoil.
The German, French and Australian embassies in Washington said they have experienced noticeable increases in American citizens applying for visas, too, largely those married to citizens of their countries. The embassies declined to give specific numbers or comment on visa applicants’ motivations, citing privacy and diplomatic concerns.
Dan Prescher, senior editor of Internationalliving.com, said traffic related to “how to move out of the U.S.” has surged 1,676% over the past five months. He attributes the unprecedented jump to political divisiveness, uncertainty about health care, and the rising visibility of “militarized hate groups” in the United States.
Georgia looking iffy.
It will be a blue wave. Not because of policy, but due to Trump’s asshole personality. Shame actually. Pandemic handling aside, Trump tried (and failed mostly at) some good things. But as he does with everything he touches, it immediately turns to a flaming pile of turds due to his need to pat himself on the back and burn every bridge he crosses.
How do I make money off this deal?
Florida going to Trump and betting odds now at tossup. Lib not sure how you can be predicting blue wave at this point.
Fast
Are you quoting Biden or trump?
Beer,
Lol! O’Biden already knows the formula. I want to know how I make money off the O’Biden presidency.
Eddie,
How do I make money off this deal?
Seems like you make a lot of money posting here. Post Eddie, post.
Or, on a serious note, Eddie, the sensible way is to invest wisely — buy and hold for long term?
SomeOne,
Already in the investment game… need to switch gears if the senile basta@rd wins. Let’s hope the crazy b1tch who’s a heartbeat away doesn’t blow the f.ucking joint up.
This thing is just getting started, but NC and OH look to be going blue.
It’s going exactly how I said it would. None of the mail ins are counted and Ohio and Pennsylvania (the states he needs badly) are not looking good. All exit polls are crap since so many Dems voted by mail. You need Penny and Ohio and it is not looking good there. I also have a friend who sees the tallies before we do and he said North Carolina is most likely going to Biden too. He is unbiased. Just going by past versus present.
In the end it will divide up along IQ lines… sorry to say the places with zero economic hope left will vote red.
Buy and hold is dead. And I’m a fundamental investor. The world is changing much quicker than ever. Look at Altria, P&G, even J&J. These are dead stocks.
In other news. We will all go to bed tonight, and tomorrow night through Friday night not knowing who won. So don’t panic yet.
So the way I see this is FL is going Trump.
That will leave 6 states that Donnie will have to run the board on.
Arizona,
Texas
Georgia
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Ohio.
Joe takes just one, this is probably over.
Fab and Lib,
What gives you the confidence that Michigan and Wisconsin are in Biden’s pocket? Let alone Ohio?
Vegas
SWING STATE ODDS – DEMOCRATS VS. REPUBLICANS
SWING STATE ODDS
Odds To Win 2020 Swing State Electoral Votes (11/3/2020)
Party Arizona Florida Georgia Michigan
Biden -125 +150 +145 -400
Trump +105 -170 -165 +300
Party Minnesota North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Biden -390 -130 -200 -380
Trump +320 +110 +180 +310
Looking above the “Consensus Odds” for the eight states, you can see that Joe Biden is favored in six races as of Sunday, Nov. 1.
The largest betting action on Trump came in on Arizona, Florida and Georgia while Biden has been made a heavier favorite in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Thanks Fab
Someone. it’s totally based on the numbers counted so far as well as the house seats gained.
Remember the votes will favor the Red team early, but will swing heavily Blue as absentee and mail-in votes are counted.
You’ll see.
ExEssex
“He attributes the unprecedented jump to political divisiveness, uncertainty about health care, and the rising visibility of “militarized hate groups” in the United States.”
I read that article. It’s utter garbage, a political propaganda piece. I’ve followed this issue for decades now and there are so many holes in the analysis, it would sink faster than a submarine with 8 screen doors.
In fact, the renunciation trend took off under Obama and started trending down under Trump. In 2020, it started skyrocketing again. Also, the data doesn’t take as long to filter through as they say, a lag of less than a year at most. Third, the logic is wrong and their comment on timing makes it more wrong. Otherwise, how to explain the fact that renunciations spiked under Obama and everyone (and I mean everyone) attributed it to taxes and tax policy.
In fact, if you are leaving because of the reasons in the article, you don’t need to go through the horrendous expense and time to renounce. Just leave. The only reasons to renounce are tax and a ban on dual citizenship. That’s it.
Not surprised you parroted it. It was either you or Fabian.
Britt Hume just said the odds just flipped from O’Biden to Trump. I’m not sure what that exactly means.
In other news, I am getting quotes on a new gas boiler. One guy wants to put in Weil-McLain. The other wants to put in Utica 15B. I can get data on the Weil but not the Utica (other Utica models have been panned though).
Thoughts?
Fast,
Trump is going down. It was his to lose and he lost it. Everyone wondered why Biden was hidin’ but the old saying goes “when your opponent is digging himself into a hole, don’t take away his shovel.”
Nom,
So be it. I still have to work.
Fab Vegas now has Trump as odds on favorite….65%. Those numbers are stale.
Vegas now has Trump as odds on favorite….65%.
I think this is what Britt Hume was saying.
Lindsay Graham winning at 55% seems like a pretty bad sign — was expected to be very close.
Only stupid people would vote on the election. Hence, the money will swing Trump. It’s no different when say the Cowboys play the Cardinals. Or the Yankees play the Rays. Sports betting and current event betting will always be influenced by dumb money.
Certainly not turning out the way the media said it would. And I certainly don’t see a blue wave.
We’ll see. The early voting should really swing things.
Yea except this is the exact same course that odds moved in 16 when it became apparent polls underestimated Trump support. Moving from 70% clinton to trump to win within a couple of hours. There is plenty of stupid money in these bets but the smart money cleans up on that fact.
Trump is at 80% now. Writing on the wall.
I won’t make predictions but one thing I can say I’m firmly of the opinion is all that polling data the past 3 months was absolute garbage.
nom, Avoid the Utica, it’s crap, I have 2 and they always need repair. Total junk, avoid them, old models were super reliable, their mod con units are bad news not sure about newer traditional units. I have 2 from 2008, one was already replaced under warranty and I have thousands into them.
Vegas will be swinging with late money coming in on the active results. This is going to be close. My odds checker is stuck at 9:40
Old Utica great. It’s what I have now and it’s pretty friggin reliable. In multi I have Weil-McLain. Two years old. So far, so good. It looks like it was built like a tank. Definitely go with the latter.
What/Where is the link on the Vegas odds? Can’t find it.
Good luck. If you have an online betting account, you can get them. Otherwise, be careful of imposters.
I’m watching this. https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Lots of stupid money bailing in. It was hard not to jump on that +450 on Joe.
Predictit website has crashed.
Betfair posts odds for public and they are legit . You take 1 divided by the decimal odds to get imputed probability….
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics/2020-us-presidential-election/10393583/next-president/924.117412665
It’s the Red Mirage, don’t drink the Kool-aid. PA has already gamed it for Biden.
Hell, I’m a registered Republican so did I get the mail in ballot I applied for months ago? Nope. But they knew I asked for it so I had to vote provisional. :(
PA has already gamed it for Biden.
That, I believe.
Did you guys see market futures?
No results in Georgia and Pennsy tonight. I’m going to bed. It is what it is.
Lib, what is your interpretation? Trump win, Biden win? Arizona?
I mean Interpretation about what caused the jump?
Calling it a night as well.
I’m still at 30% as PA going to the courts and the GOP will try and steal it.
Someone.
Impossible to translate. Market likes Trump, but also likes massive stimulus if Biden wins. I’m on the wrong side of this trade apparently. But we’ll see. A third possibility is that Trump wins in a landslide and results aren’t protracted. Market hates uncertainty. Who the fukc knows?
The Blue wave is certainly looking more like a blue ripple.
Not sure I can handle 3 days of Trump spin until the counts are in, especially in PA.
So painful. Going to sleep too.
Congratulations NJ – da weed is legal.
Way closer than I thought
Grim. Do we get a new thread?
yeah
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