From the Star Ledger:
It’s Game of Homes in N.J.’s wild real estate market
Last week’s Letter From Your Editor included a note about how our reporters were looking into the residential real estate market in New Jersey and looking for agents, buyers, sellers and others to share their stories.
Whoo, boy, did you folks share some stories.
Fistfights at the open house. Cash incentives out of the pocket of agents hoping to close a sale. Full price, sight-unseen offers. Love letters, free Netflix, and tacos for everyone! It’s a full-on Game of Homes out there.
And this isn’t even counting the houses that change hands before they ever have a sign in the yard — check out your town’s Facebook or Nextdoor page. If your school district is any good, it’s a safe bet buyers are in there schmoozing around looking to get an early chance at a deal.
My husband and I are watching all this warily, as we’re getting closer to time-to-downsize, and thinking about how bizarre the market was the last time we sold and bought.
Back in 2004, the housing market in Ocean County was flush with easy mortgages and bloated with folks from Staten Island moving to Jersey. The market was so competitive that the first buyer’s agent knocked on the door before the house even hit the MLS. She tried to wheedle her way in for an early look while I was shampooing carpets with a toddler underfoot. It didn’t work.
But within a week of listing, we had multiple offers above asking price. When one of the bidders wrote us a letter complimenting the genuinely terrible faux-finish paint job I’d done on the dining room, I knew things were getting ridiculous.
Fortunately for us back then, we were moving from rapidly-developing Jackson to a still mostly rural part of Gloucester County, where housing prices and taxes were lower. We knew our house would sell quickly, and that we could afford to buy the next one.
Now, with every corner of the state sizzling — even in the tiny, not-upscale Delaware Bay town where my Mom lives, knock-down cottages are commanding big money — the next move isn’t so clear.
Frist
Hot real estate markets only benefit the sellers.
A reminder from Shiller on 80s bust..d&psh^ts can argue that it is generational demand or that sound mortgages, defending the ‘fundamentals’ but this will end the same. The stories in media are classic echo-chamber, bubble drivers. The ‘sad’ millionaires who can’t find a home. It is to force the other 99% into getting scaring and overpaying in the lower markets..Bubble.
Shiller argues that speculative bubbles are caused by “precipitating
factors” that change public opinion about markets or that have an immediate impact on demand, and by “amplification mechanisms” that take the
form of price-to-price feedback.
The cyclical process that we observed in the 1980s in those cities experiencing boom-and-bust cycles was that general economic expansion, best
proxied by employment gains, drove demand up. In the short run those
increases in demand encountered an inelastic supply of housing and
developable land, inventories of for-sale properties shrank, and vacancy
declined. As a consequence, prices accelerated. This provided the amplification mechanism as it led buyers to anticipate further gains, and the
bubble was born. Once prices overshoot or supply catches up, inventories
begin to rise, time on the market increases, vacancy rises, and price
increases slow, eventually encountering downward stickiness.
With housing, a significant precipitating factor may be employment
gains, if only because they are highly visible. Employment releases occur
on the first Friday of each month, with state data released somewhat later.
Both national and state releases by the BLS receive dramatic fanfare in
the press. In all three of the cities with volatile prices, substantial employment gains and falling unemployment preceded the upward acceleration
of home prices during both booms.
The predominant story about home prices is always the prices themselves; the feedback from initial price increases to further price increases is a mechanism that amplifies the effects of the precipitating factors. If
prices are going up rapidly, there is much word-of-mouth communication, a hallmark of a bubble. The word of mouth can spread optimistic stories and thus help cause an overreaction to other stories, such as stories about
employment.
“bloated with folks from Staten Island moving to Jersey”
Imagine what long planned “Riverton” project will be like if it ever gets off the ground. They are trying to pass it off as another Hoboken. It will be more like Staten Island escaped to New Jersey.
https://experienceriverton.com/
Bystander: This is sheer madness. And won’t end well , and it will end. Everyone is an expert on real estate again, and of course it’s different this time , driven my millennials with staggering amounts of cash and seven figure incomes. The WSJ had a story on millennials who said they were using monies that should have gone to pay student loans towards their down payment. It’s shameful how the Fed has destroyed this economy.
Juice: Staten Islanders are going to make Monmouth Co another Staten Island.
Speaking of Staten island. This is the home my family owned down in Tom’s River until 1981, when it was sold for a mere $55k to a Staten Island Family who still own it today nearly 40 years later. Still has the original wood beams and painted ceilings, nothing has been done except for perhaps some Sandy money was used to update siding, windows, sheet rock etc after it got wiped out by the flood. Zillow says worth maybe $386k.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1854-Starboard-Ct-Toms-River-NJ-08753/39603940_zpid/?mmlb=g,0
The are selling McMansion’s in the same development for a $1.3 million, complete with $20,000 a year in taxes.
Come quick and buy your shore house with a boat slip, you might get a chance to see the Real Hose wives!!!… Yes Hose…….Hose Wives…
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1874-Ensign-Ct-Toms-River-NJ-08753/87973069_zpid/
So how does a $150,000 super car give you green credentials as an environmentalist?
Well you plug it in at the public charging station while dining in downtown Red Bank.
Saw one of these yesterday….People are spending money like mad on cars.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/porsche-s-electric-taycan-sales-on-course-to-eclipse-iconic-911
3B – we have quite a few Staten Island folks already and lots of transplants from Bergen County as well. Our town meets it COAH obligations and other than a few lots that have mansions going up there won’t be overdevelopment. Closest big project is 5 miles away and is a bunch of new townhouses going up on right on the highway. You can walk across the superhighway to Target for a mere $560,000.
https://www.newhomesource.com/plan/the-chelsea-american-properties-realty-middletown-nj/1838744
For the gardeners out there Mulch is on sale at Lowes for $2 a bag until 4/21
Door buster price 100 bags = 3.7037 cubic yards
Get em while they are hot, headed over there now to load up my truck.
https://www.lowes.com/pd/Premium-2-cu-ft-Black-Hardwood-Mulch/3420262
“The WSJ had a story on millennials who said they were using monies that should have gone to pay student loans towards their down payment. It’s shameful how the Fed has destroyed this economy.”
Home prices are controlled by the seller. The real problem is inherent greed.
Old, but interesting, at least to me. this 2 minutes.
https://youtu.be/3G1EyvRZmOs?t=3510
Juice: Seeing a lot of town houses being along the side of the GSP, from north Jersey all the way down. Lots of hideous Mc Mansions being built on miserable spots in Paramus, one right near the an entrance/exit ramp for 17. I can’t see how that one was approved. Lots of one truck builders buying and renovating houses for flips. It’s taking weeks/ months as it’s only one or two guys doing the work. It’s madness out there.
How Covid spreads.
Family member in New Jersey just tested positive, did not vaccinate like the rest of us. Wife and daughter also positive. His whole office, an accounting firm now has Covid. Not sure who got it first etc. When I called to see how he was doing, he was at work 8PM at the office instead of home quarantining and working remotely. Yes I know it’s tax season etc.
Some people just are either stupid or a-holes. He isn’t normally this much of an a-hole. I gather he is fed up being home with wife and kids all the time and would rather risk it in the office, tax season and all. When I spoke to him he was coughing too. I warned him to get ahead of it and go and get treatment don’t wait until it worsens as people I know young and healthy have had life changing clots and other issues due to Covid. I hope he listens. I also told the nurse in the family to check in on him and his wife and daughter.
Yes, when the supply of sellers outweighs the buyers (aka when millennials are done buying) you will see an end to this current cycle. Not happening for a long time.
Bystander says:
April 18, 2021 at 8:15 am
A reminder from Shiller on 80s bust..d&psh^ts can argue that it is generational demand or that sound mortgages, defending the ‘fundamentals’ but this will end the same. The stories in media are classic echo-chamber, bubble drivers. The ‘sad’ millionaires who can’t find a home. It is to force the other 99% into getting scaring and overpaying in the lower markets..Bubble.
Just too much support, bystander. That’s the key to real estate, understand the cycles driven by large demographic blocs that cause price increases first in renting in their 20’s, and then to starter single family homes as they age. When they are in peak earning years, they will drive up the “upgrade” market in their late 40’s and 50’s.
Just like Cathie said earlier in the year. A big correction was coming (she nailed it). She said that bonds were the bubble and that this bull market was looking extremely healthy as it starts to spread to all parts of the market, not a select few. She said this in December and January. She is good..
“Investors and analysts often look to technical indicators that measure the breadth of the market’s rally for clues about where it is headed next. A market is generally considered healthier when more stocks are rising together, and signs of strong participation are typically viewed as a signal that a rally has legs. In contrast, a market with poor breadth—such as the one in the late 1990s near the peak of the dot-com bubble—indicates fewer stocks with larger market capitalizations are carrying the load.
Lately, signs of strong breadth have abounded, a reversal from much of the past year when a small group of large technology stocks drove much of the market’s gains. Last week, the percent-age of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 200-day moving averages crossed 95%, rising to the highest level since October 2009, according to data through Thursday. Only during three other periods since the start of 2000 has that measure surpassed and then hovered above 95% for several days, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis based on current index constituents.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-stocks-are-participating-in-rally-an-encouraging-sign-for-bull-market-11618738201?st=06o3nmlnajv7ld8&reflink=article_copyURL_share
3b – You can buy a decent stand along real house in a nice neighborhood around here for $560k. What exactly is the allure of these types of townhouses on highways etc? No yard to use and no yard work? I pay $35 for a grass mow around here and I have a 1/2 acre. Price has not changed in 8 years. I get it townhouse is new had has nice kitchens and bathrooms and interior finishes but really the quality of these townhouses is mediocre. I have seen the construction of townhouses done down south in South Carolina and Atlanta, much better quality real brick etc. Useable porch out back etc. But the ones they build in New Jersey are garbage.
Juice: My wife’s family is in the same general setup except down Fischer. Head east on Bay Avenue. Same deal. Bulkheads. Gravel lawns. A little more substantial a home.
Juice,
Good luck with the mulch run. That’s a nice workout. Lol
That deal brings out the herds …
Chi – If you drive along any of those streets massive homes are going up. We rented last year on the other side of the bay a waterfront home for a week. I rode a bike around all the neighborhoods Lavallette etc. It amazes me every time to see how many how many new and flipped million dollar homes are going up.
My new neighbor did not m0ve in right away. His dad is a contractor and is blowing up the house for his son. Nice guy, I stop and chat with him as he is there every day working. He lives in the Silverton side of the bay, it’s a bit more WT but same thing is happening there, everything that is waterfront is getting bought up knocked down and a million dollar McMansion with 20k in taxes or more is going up on those tiny lots.
Juice: I don’t get it either, and they are not cheap. Maybe it’s the soothing swish of 24 hour traffic that appeals to people. Meanwhile the massive building of multi family housing continues in Bergen Co, from Montvale down to Hackensack and beyond. A friend told me supposedly they are positioning Hackensack as the next Hoboken , with Hached being a train town ( not that matters anymore with WFH taking over so many jobs). They hope that shops, bars and restaurants will follow. They are going to market Hackensack as “ The Hack” .
Women choose the homes. It’s happy wife, happy life, right??
Pumps 20 lb bags of mulch and a wheel barrow. My land is sloped too….The landscaper wants $1000 or more to clean up and mulch etc I get it done for $200-$300 and also get a couple of nice workouts and a tan. I may never have six pack abs again but when I was in high school and college I did this kind of stuff for a living. Hard work is good for the soul and I am cheap. I won’t overpay it’s just not in my DNA.
NYC was built up by oligarchs like Vanderbilt. The current oligarchs don’t do any of these things. Facebook guy has built what? Bezos-has he donated even a bridge somewhere? What about Mr. Microsoft- he make anything like Grand Central? Warren Buffet- spends all afternoon counting his money, telling people he doesn’t pay enough taxes.
Everything that makes NYC great was built 100 years ago, and now has been used like a cheap ten dollar you know what. How many years of taking tolls until those tunnels were paid off-not one dollar put aside for replacing them in the future. Greedy Locusts keep sucking up money, but put away nothing for the future except their own future.
Juice,
That’s good exercise. Now try it with 80 lb bags of concrete. You will get those abs, and a herniated disk to boot.
Chicago,
On the radio this morning, Ric Edelman talked about a young guy who took 30K, started buying and selling Gamestop and wound up making 1.4 million but the loses were 1.2 million and the total net was 45K. I don’t remember how he described it all. All I remember is that the guy made over 500 trades in a few month period and since it was all short term trading, he wound up owing the Government 800K because he’s not allowed to deduct short term loses. I forgot the term that Edelman used. Can you (or anyone her) explain this and what the term Ric used? I need to see if I can re-listen his opening monologue. Thanks!
Juice: Made a mistake re Hackensack, it’s going to be branded as “The Sack”. That should be interesting. Meet me in The Sack!!
You mean “peak debt-taking years”, dufus. Wages have been going nowhere for decades and same wages must now float 100k more for a house than last year. It is all hiding behind facade of cheap debt and fear. The Fed will let it assets explode in hopes, that years from now , the demand is economy might provide wage increase. They now that politics may f&ck the whole thing. Rs want nothing to do with fed wage increase as small businesses don’t want extra labor costs. They want all the profits and cheap labor, just like the big corporatocracy receives from Fed. Inflation is coming..prepare for rocky road. Good article and comments from front lines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/16/upshot/unemployment-pandemic-worker-shortages.html
Comment from that article. Spot on.
“Capitalism is a means of control. Democracy is the facade used to give it legitimacy. Search your hearts and minds, Americans. Capitalism drives democracy, not the other way around. Any supposed freedoms we think we have are an illusion. The rich have true freedom. The rest of us have limited freedom as long as long as we play the game and sacrifice the better parts of our lives to the machine.”
745 comments on that article…I realize NY times will steer liberal but who can really argue that we are at cross-roads between crushing debt, “state capitalism”, inequality and now wage warfare:
Cathy wrote:
Higher wages lead to higher prices. Everyone hates higher prices. Wage bifurcation – the ability of many to live relatively well, and others to live relatively poorly – allows for prices to remain low, while keeping a stable supply of consumers at the ready.
Essentially, what we are saying, when we defend lower wages, is that we are happy that someone is living very badly, so that we can liver better.
The pandemic put a crimp in this cycle, with people both employees and consumers abandoning whole industries. Trying to restart has exposed the math.
@Cathy:
This is exactly right and U.S. capitalism has always been this way. The collective “we” is quite happy to ignore the poverty (and the resulting crime that stems from it) of our fellow citizens, provided we’re not personally affected by it. That millions of people cannot afford to miss a day’s pay, let alone take a vacation once in awhile doesn’t seem to matter as long as we’re comfortable.
We’ve been sold the idea that our economy is a zero-sum game because it serves the interests of the very wealthy. Race and class divisions are exploited so that these so-called “job creators” can maintain their wealth and power.
Today the average CEO makes well over 300 times what the company’s lowest-paid worker makes. In 1970 that ratio was closer to 30 to 1.
Damn the boards gone Marxist.
Competition drives wages folks. That and a really friendly board of directors.
Re: good exercise. I weighed a few bags, average is 45 lbs. Still unloading the 35 bags I picked up today. Will go back tomorrow for more! joys of home ownership and keeping up with the neighbors!
Competition drives wages in a closed, local market, Ex. In a world labor market, the corporatocracy will move to place with cheapest labor and English speaking population. Internet, stable power and hardware are today’s only wage controls. India has the big chip right now with 1.5b people. Africa is the next frontier once India starts to become too competitive. We are paying some people 35% more than current salary in Pune. It is nuts there but still cheaper than US. Here is states, you can’t find a decent wage compared to CoL. Getting harder..
I understand. I see insane income demands on people to live out here.
Meanwhile poverty sits at 5O%. Once retirement comes I think it’ll be back to the hinterlands for me. Lib would say Costa Rica and I do love those cheap condos.
Probably wash sale rules. But that sounds like someone needs to smarten up about their taxes. If they made $45K then that is what they owe. The caller is clearly not telling the whole story or doesn’t understand the subject matter.
Fast Eddie says:
April 18, 2021 at 10:58 am
Chicago,
On the radio this morning, Ric Edelman talked about a young guy who took 30K, started buying and selling Gamestop and wound up making 1.4 million but the loses were 1.2 million and the total net was 45K. I don’t remember how he described it all. All I remember is that the guy made over 500 trades in a few month period and since it was all short term trading, he wound up owing the Government 800K because he’s not allowed to deduct short term loses. I forgot the term that Edelman used. Can you (or anyone her) explain this and what the term Ric used? I need to see if I can re-listen his opening monologue. Thanks!
$45 K to report. They owe the proper rate of tax.
Chicago,
Yes! That’s what he said! Wash sale rule! No one called in, the host explained the whole story. I wish I was translating it correctly. If you heard the host explain it, it probably would make sense to you but yes, that was the term he used. The key point I got out of it is that the trader dude couldn’t or can’t deduct his losses because of the short term trading. I don’t know how the 45k fits in, only that his gains were 1.4 million and losses were 1.2 million.
Housing craze and housing supply . . .
Ultimately, housing prices in this country are primarily dictated by our political limitations on supply. Certainly not engineering. Not really even financial.
To illustrate, one of the recently-built apartment buildings in Downtown Hackensack is 18 East Camden St. (Branded “The Current on River”). It is 254 units built on 2.34 acres – it is only five stories tall.
If we assume 2 people living in each unit, it will be 508 people living in this building. This equates to a population density of 138,940 people/square mile. And, importantly, this building is people living in CIVILIZED accomodations (a 1 bedroom apt. is 750 square feet, there’s probably a pool, gym, bike storage, doorman for packages, conference rooms, free pizza night once a month, maybe even a yoga room, and there’s probably at least 250 parking spaces on the site, etc). Let’s cut in half the population density to 70,000 people/square mile to account for roads and sidewalks – if the whole US populaton lived in communities with a density of 70,000 people/square mile, the whole US would fit within 5,000 square miles. NJ is around 7,000 square miles. This reality is summed up in the old chestnut that if the whole US lived as densely as Manhattan, the whole US could fit in Houston (I didn’t check the math on that Manhattan-Housing saying). And, remember this can be achieved with 5-story buildings, nevermind 20-story or 40-story buildings; also nevermind how many basements of existing homes would be fine housing with minimal construction work if our governments allowed them to be).
The engineers can do it. The developers want to do it. The buyers would like it, even though they don’t understand basic economics so they don’t see how it is in their interest. If we really allowed capitalism to work in the housing market, housing would be much less expensive than it is now. A “demographic wave” would get met with 1-2 million more new apartments in buildings like 18 East Camden each year until the market is in equilibrium. None of this is rocket science, but the average Joe and Jane on the street says “not in my backyard”.
Crushed,
It’s because property rights mean something in this country. I understand the GIST of your argument, but America will never give up their property rights to do what you speak of. No chance in hell.
We went to war over slavery, not because people cared about the color of the skin, but because people refused to give up what they viewed as valuable private property. Slaves were an expensive commodity. To giving them up, meant giving up a lot of money.
Getting to the point; how many you of you are going to willingly give up your money tied in real estate for the greater good? I sure as hell am not. And I’m not sorry. I’m just playing the game by the rules I was given. Don’t change it on me and make most of my life work/sacrifices worthless.
At the end of the day, I’m not writing off my hard work.
That a boy. Nothing makes you feel better than a hard day’s of work.
Juice Box says:
April 18, 2021 at 12:50 pm
Re: good exercise. I weighed a few bags, average is 45 lbs. Still unloading the 35 bags I picked up today. Will go back tomorrow for more! joys of home ownership and keeping up with the neighbors!
This market is wild. Open houses look like a multi town keg party in high school.
Yup.
https://www.financialsamurai.com/why-the-housing-market-wont-crash/
He even nails it with “demographics.”
5) The Federal Reserve And Federal Government Are Pro-Homeownership
Never fight the Fed or the Federal Government. If you fight the Fed, you will end up losing a lot of money. If you fight the Federal Government, you will likely get fined or get thrown in jail.
Given the Fed and the Government are pro-homeownership, it is only logical to invest in real estate. The Federal Reserve has already telegraphed it is willing to let inflation run hotter than its normal 2% CPI target to ensure the return of full employment. President Biden and Congress have clearly signaled their willingness to spend an endless amount of money on stimulus spending.
Besides the implicit support from the Fed and the Government, we have favorable real estate laws in place:
Mortgage interest deduction
$250K/$500K tax-free profits
Programs for first-time home buyers
Mortgage moratoriums
1031 Exchange
Historical bailouts of homeowners and big lenders
If you want to make money in real estate, you must put any negative beliefs aside about the Fed and the Government. Be politically agnostic and face reality.
Most of the time, the people who are most vocal against real estate are the ones who cannot afford to buy property, sold property at the wrong time, or didn’t buy property when they could have. For some reason, some people against real estate aren’t able to accept that people who buy real estate also buy stocks and other assets as well.
6) Demographic Tailwind
Fannie Mae estimates there are 88 million people in the millennial generation. This is the highest number I’ve ever heard reported of people born between 1980 – 1999. The millennial generation definition seems to be getting larger. But, the point is there is a huge population of 22 to 41-year-olds who are in their prime home-buying years. All the previous talk of the millennial generation renting for life is turning out to be BS.
A good life tends to be the same as it ever was for most people – find a partner, own a home, start a family, work hard to provide for your kids, retire with a paid-off home, etc.
Millennials have been late to the home buying trend due to more education, more student debt, delayed unions, and more competition. But for the past 5+ years, millennials have been the largest percentage of buyers. This trend will likely continue for another 10+ years.
As an investor, it’s generally a good idea to invest in long-term trends. Positive demographics are a long-term trend worth riding. Once you invest in a positive trend, you don’t have to worry as much about the minutiae. You just need proper exposure.
Check out how the median age of US homebuyers continues to increase over the past decade. Thankfully, the median life expectancy is also increasing.
TSLA could take a dump on Monday morning:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-18/tesla-with-no-one-driving-crashes-in-texas-killing-two-men
The goal of accomplishing Level 5 autonomous driving requires nonlinear enhancements – i.e.. the last 10% requires exponential effort. There are also active lines of research involving adverse machine learning. This involves specific methods to fool machine and deep learning algorithms with sometimes catastrophic results. For example a single piece of tape placed over a stop sign can make the algorithm classify the stop sign as something else entirely.
Tesla is currently charging each customer for their “semi-automated” driving software. They are also anticipating a full rollout of Level 5 software by the end of this year and many analysts are including this in their future cash flows. This is complete nonsense.
Perhaps just more idiots shooting their videos with nobody driving?
https://www.tmz.com/videos/2020-09-11-091120-driverless-tesla-4849385/
Financial samurai is as big a horse’s @ss as you are. Most people here have houses and stocks and good jobs so we don’t need lecture. You always fail to see big picture. You seem to be the only one who does not get that 50% practically don’t have a pot to p^ss in, including millions of precious millennials. Another 25% are basically surviving and probably not financially savvy even with little money they have. The Feds policies are not helping them so stop with selfish “I got mine” attitude. It will collapse hard for many people.
So Boomer locusts are abandoning the cause it seems.
Family member worth $$$$ <– yes $$$$ won't be going back to the home to Minneapolis out of fear. Bundler for Obama and former candidate for governor too, uber liberal etc, friends with Al Gore, they will be at their waterfront home in San Diego, so it's Torrey Pines from now on. Yeah I get it they aren't young but many from their generation are still at it.
Torrey Pines is off the hook.
Стейкинг
Updated Vaccination by Age Range for NJ:
Morning of 4/15 vs Morning of 4/19
At Least 1 Dose
Total Pop: 8.9m
Total 1st Doses: 3.8m – 43% of total pop (Up from 40%) – Bloomberg reporting 46%
18-29 – 1.4m population – 342k dosed – 24% 1 Dose (Up from 23%)
30-49 – 2.3m population – 950k dosed – 41% 1 Dose (Up from 39%)
50-64 – 1.9m population – 1,102k dosed – 58% 1 Dose (Up from 55%)
65-79 – 1.1m population – 1,064k dosed – 97% 1 Dose (Up from 92%)
80+ – 400k population – 380k dosed – 95% 1 Dose (Up from 90%)
Covid cases: And yet NJ still has over 3,000 yesterday. I would expect these numbers would be plunging soon.
Fast
Any breakdown on the new cases? I suspect the majority are younger people less likely to have underlying conditions so at least hospitalizations and death numbers will fall.
NJ can’t seem to get through the decline without bouncing back up. If you were out this weekend, you’d recognize that people have decided it doesn’t matter any more. They’ll still virtue signal to pretend that they care. For how long, I don’t know.
At this point, the “emergency” should be ended. There’s no excuse for any seniors/health compromised people to not be vaccinated anymore.
This is just how capitalism works. You are never going to have an economic system where the majority are doing well and have it easy.
Bystander says:
April 18, 2021 at 8:58 pm
Financial samurai is as big a horse’s @ss as you are. Most people here have houses and stocks and good jobs so we don’t need lecture. You always fail to see big picture. You seem to be the only one who does not get that 50% practically don’t have a pot to p^ss in, including millions of precious millennials. Another 25% are basically surviving and probably not financially savvy even with little money they have. The Feds policies are not helping them so stop with selfish “I got mine” attitude. It will collapse hard for many people.
He absolutely nails it. He has the balls to say it on his blog…respect.
“Most of the time, the people who are most vocal against real estate are the ones who cannot afford to buy property, sold property at the wrong time, or didn’t buy property when they could have. For some reason, some people against real estate aren’t able to accept that people who buy real estate also buy stocks and other assets as well.”
Went out to dinner with the family this weekend, all the restaurants we tried had a wait. Pre-pandemic you would have been able to walk into any of them and been seated immediately. Capacity seemed to be over 50% too
They run that 5 for 10 mulch deal every year. It will go down to 4 for 10 and then 3 for 10 and finally $4 each for the rest of the year. Though, the 5 for 10 sometimes briefly comes back.
We’ve been filling the rear of the SUV for years, every two years.
More importantly, put down a quality (ten year) fabric weed stop. Though the stuff is expensive and a pain in the ass to lay down (we hold it down with bricks and take them off once we get the mulch on top. It virtually eliminates weeding and the mulch lasts mulch longer.
Mulch longer. <– I should trademark that.
In other news, I've been watching the "Sack" grow for years. My son plays a lot of hockey games at the Ice House, and the area down there by the water is where all of the development is. It's also where the state prison is across the street from that crappy BBQ restaurant. Not sure how that place is still in business. It's just terrible. Those buildings are all truly enormous and not limited to 5 floors. Some of them are definitely closer to ten and have absolutely no care for appearance. It looks like we are back to the early 60s in architecture, only the poured cement and brick has been replaced with styrofoam. About 5 years ago, Gator and I went out to Hackensack for ice cream at a place everyone said was "the bomb." We had it. Overpriced and quite average. But there were lines. This was the official start of their gentrification downtown.
http://www.icecreambymike.com/
Trust me. Hipster joint. Has nothing on Holstein’s or Applegate (which has also become impossibly expensive). https://direct.chownow.com/order/4792/locations/6216
You can use newspaper or cardboard as weed barrier and it will biodegrade during the season. If you have a big property and like natural woodchips, you can do a Chip drop: https://getchipdrop.com/?ref=chipdropcom
Arborist who needs a place to dump his woodchips will dump up to 10 yards in your driveway for you for free. The nice thing is, they last for a few years and then become loam. But don’t do it unless you actually have a place for that type of load.
Was watching the FOX Local news at 10pm last night. They were covering the expansion of restaurant hours in New York City. One of the restaurant owners said his toughest challenge is to find help. The unemployment checks are so good, none of his workers want to return to work.
I have done 10 yards of mulch delivered by the truckload in the past. It’s something like 150 wheelbarrows to push around and spread. I no longer mulch the back beds as they are on a hill and when it rains heavy it all washes away. I just spray the weeds and wack them once a month etc. I only need to top off what have have out front and the sides of my property so 100 bags will suffice, bags are easier to manage by myself anyway. You don’t have to shovel it from the driveway into a wheelbarrow and then push that heavy load around, my property is sloped out back so it makes that even more fun. I just take a few bags and dump them in the beds and go to work.
The local mulch delivery is charging $227.00 for six yards delivered. No too bad of a price. Home Depot wants $359.00 for 5 yards delivered.
Joys of home ownership!
Other issue lately is these invasive creeping vines. Porcelain Berry from China and mile a minute from India, and Kudzu from China. Wherever that stuff grows it strangles everything but the pine trees, and it’s everywhere as our development is surrounded by woods. I have to get in there and dig out the tap roots as this stuff grows a foot a day.
Our new neighbor who is remodeling has yet to do any yard work but dig it up for a new gas line, new walkway etc. He has also cleared the back lot and it’s a real mess, and could have water management issues since he did not put in a drainage system like I have that runs from the yard drains, with gutters tied in all the way to the street. Not a priority etc but he could at least put the logs and branches out on the street like everyone else for pickup this week.
Libturd,
The “Unemployment Check is Big” is a lot of Fox/AON narrative horseshit. All their stories have been pumping that for a while. They had a story about a McDonalds somewhere in the south, hey McD how about you pay $1 more an hour, it will barely affect profits.
I order a lot in NYC. The cheap labor illegal central americans are gone, because of Trump & pandemics’ economic effects. In fact about 3 months before the pandemic, I saw the first black guy working in a NYC deli that I can remember.
A very likely illegal delivery guy that comes to me frequently told me his restaurant takes away about 15% of the tip if I pay with credit card. So I give him cash.
Rule #1 of business management is keep your employees fearful and unstable about their future, so you can nickel and dime them into control and subservience. Same has applied to the population over the last 40 yrs since neo-liberal economics/corporate state ideology took over. They require cheap labor to work. Either import them, or starved them into cheapness when the citizenry opposes new immigration.
And is going to get worse for the business world. Simply because globalization is out. The doors will close hard after the first shooting war with china.
A few days ago there was talk here about business opportunities. The one I can recommend is plan out some sort of manufacturing enterprise. Start planning how to, where to, what equipment and best equipment that you can get and from whom, how to get the know how of experience people, to build stuff.
Helping someone with towing. He was sad to find out that his 35k vehicle was only capable of towing 2 Walmart cart riders without their carts. Well, not even, when you have to deduct the trailer too.
Lib, I talked to a landscaper in the area. He’s short on labor. He said, even the illegals aren’t coming back because they have their SSN and are collecting on it.
My brother finally left unemployment. His truck driving drop finally called him up since May last year to rehire him. They said he would have to take a paycut and he refused because he was on unemployment and working 2 jobs under the table. He actually negotiated a raise.
Reaching out with same sh&t wages while living prices are going nuts does not equate to “labor shortage”. Moratorium on evictions, unemployment pay and stimulus will hurt low wage labor market, no doubt..but how do you remove it? Just like they won’t stop insane bond purchases. You can’t just throw poor to wolves in hopes that wages pick up years from now. Fed knows destruction that is creating with inflation. I am not sure these idiot recruiters say same thing to their clients while struggling to find candidates. I was offered “NYC poverty wage” of 60/hr on W2. That is the problem. This was BoA position too. We are in major game of chicken. Asset prices have gone bonkers and now you need wages to sustain it..good luck.
So, a U.S. Representative from California, Maxine Waters, traveled across State lines to incite a riot as well as being involved with jury tampering. I wonder what charges will be brought forward?
Sounds like fake news to me.
Sounds like fake news to me.
From CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/politics/maxine-waters-derek-chauvin-blm/index.html
dead.
Calabresi then asks: Would you take the deal? Almost invariably, the students say no. The professor then delivers the fable’s lesson: “What’s the difference between this and the automobile?”
In truth, automobiles kill many more than 1,000 young Americans each year; the total U.S. death toll hovers at about 40,000 annually. We accept this toll, almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We can’t fathom a world without them.
It’s a classic example of human irrationality about risk. We often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but salient risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks.
One way for a risk to become salient is for it to be new. That’s a core idea behind Calabresi’s fable. He asks students to consider whether they would accept the cost of vehicle travel if it did not already exist. That they say no underscores the very different ways we treat new risks and enduring ones.
I have been thinking about the fable recently because of Covid-19. Covid certainly presents a salient risk: It’s a global pandemic that has upended daily life for more than a year. It has changed how we live, where we work, even what we wear on our faces. Covid feels ubiquitous.
Fortunately, it is also curable. The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who have received shots. The vaccines have also radically reduced the chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others.
Yet many vaccinated people continue to obsess over the risks from Covid — because they are so new and salient.
‘Psychologically hard’
To take just one example, major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.
But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.
That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.
It’s true that experts believe vaccinated people should still sometimes wear a mask, partly because it’s a modest inconvenience that further reduces a tiny risk — and mostly because it contributes to a culture of mask wearing. It is the decent thing to do when most people still aren’t vaccinated. If you’re vaccinated, a mask is more of a symbol of solidarity than anything else.
Coming to grips with the comforting realities of post-vaccination life is going to take some time for most of us. It’s only natural that so many vaccinated people continue to harbor irrational fears. Yet slowly recognizing that irrationality will be a vital part of overcoming Covid.
“We’re not going to get to a place of zero risk,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me during a virtual Times event last week. “I don’t think that’s the right metric for feeling like things are normal.”
After Nuzzo made that point, Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told us about his own struggle to return to normal. He has been fully vaccinated for almost two months, he said, and only recently decided to meet a vaccinated friend for a drink, unmasked. “It was hard — psychologically hard — for me,” Jha said.
“There are going to be some challenges to re-acclimating and re-entering,” he added. “But we’ve got to do it.”
And how did it feel in the end, I asked, to get together with his friend?
“It was awesome,” Jha said.
NY Times
A fable for our times
Guido Calabresi, a federal judge and Yale law professor, invented a little fable that he has been telling law students for more than three decades.
He tells the students to imagine a god coming forth to offer society a wondrous invention that would improve everyday life in almost every way. It would allow people to spend more time with friends and family, see new places and do jobs they otherwise could not do. But it would also come with a high cost. In exchange for bestowing this invention on society, the god would choose 1,000 young men and women and strike them dead.
Calabresi then asks: Would you take the deal? Almost invariably, the students say no. The professor then delivers the fable’s lesson: “What’s the difference between this and the automobile?”
In truth, automobiles kill many more than 1,000 young Americans each year; the total U.S. death toll hovers at about 40,000 annually. We accept this toll, almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We can’t fathom a world without them.
It’s a classic example of human irrationality about risk. We often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but salient risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks.
One way for a risk to become salient is for it to be new. That’s a core idea behind Calabresi’s fable. He asks students to consider whether they would accept the cost of vehicle travel if it did not already exist. That they say no underscores the very different ways we treat new risks and enduring ones.
I have been thinking about the fable recently because of Covid-19. Covid certainly presents a salient risk: It’s a global pandemic that has upended daily life for more than a year. It has changed how we live, where we work, even what we wear on our faces. Covid feels ubiquitous.
Fortunately, it is also curable. The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who have received shots. The vaccines have also radically reduced the chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others.
Yet many vaccinated people continue to obsess over the risks from Covid — because they are so new and salient.
‘Psychologically hard’
To take just one example, major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.
But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.
That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.
It’s true that experts believe vaccinated people should still sometimes wear a mask, partly because it’s a modest inconvenience that further reduces a tiny risk — and mostly because it contributes to a culture of mask wearing. It is the decent thing to do when most people still aren’t vaccinated. If you’re vaccinated, a mask is more of a symbol of solidarity than anything else.
Coming to grips with the comforting realities of post-vaccination life is going to take some time for most of us. It’s only natural that so many vaccinated people continue to harbor irrational fears. Yet slowly recognizing that irrationality will be a vital part of overcoming Covid.
“We’re not going to get to a place of zero risk,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me during a virtual Times event last week. “I don’t think that’s the right metric for feeling like things are normal.”
After Nuzzo made that point, Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told us about his own struggle to return to normal. He has been fully vaccinated for almost two months, he said, and only recently decided to meet a vaccinated friend for a drink, unmasked. “It was hard — psychologically hard — for me,” Jha said.
“There are going to be some challenges to re-acclimating and re-entering,” he added. “But we’ve got to do it.”
And how did it feel in the end, I asked, to get together with his friend?
“It was awesome,” Jha said.
NY Times
12:55 who died as a result? Which sacred institutions were vandalized??
“Maxine Waters, traveled across State lines to incite a riot as well as being involved with jury tampering”
Since when are politician’s banned from travel? Also, would love to see the proof of jury tampering. I’m sure the evidence will be released at the same time the 5G cell towers come alive to perform an@l probes on non-Q-anon believers.
Biden floats the idea of lowering levels of nicotine in cigarettes, Altria dips 6%. First off, I’m not a believer that will actually happen. They’ve been saying this for decades now.
2nd, wouldn’t people just be buying more cigarettes? I added more shares.
“I talked to a landscaper in the area. He’s short on labor. He said, even the illegals aren’t coming back because they have their SSN and are collecting on it.”
Good for them.
“So, a U.S. Representative from California, Maxine Waters, traveled across State lines to incite a riot as well as being involved with jury tampering. I wonder what charges will be brought forward?”
None. Wanna bet?
Juice, those invasive plants are straight from h*ll(not surprisingly from china,everything from China seems to be driving towards extinction from some reason). My 2 acres is full of them, it is nearly impossible to kill them. You rip them out, they grow back, you cut them down and poison them will tree killer, they still keep living. Seriously they are the worst thing ever, when you think you have it under control a new invasive plant pops up. Between, invasive plants, Deer, and the ground hogs I’ve just entirely given up on landscaping, my house can look like the house from the Addams family for all I care at this point!
chi/eddie
Isn’t the stock loss/tax problem one of no carrybacks on ST capital gains? Had a trading friend with a similar issue…..nearly same amounts…..
Seems like during 2020 your guy posts about a 1.4m gain across trades in a stock, he now owes 700k of taxes in three weeks. Those positions he carried into this year implode and he sells them for basically par now. For 2021 he now has a 1.4m ST capital loss.
Problem is he can’t offset the 2020 gains with the 2021 losses, IRS looks at each year in a silo. Best he can do is offset any 2021 gains with the 1.4m loss but that reconciling doesn’t happen until Jan 2022 and the IRS wants its money for 2020 gains now….
Emerald ash borer, Stink bug, Spotted lanternfly, Tree of heaven.
China is here.
“Juice, those invasive plants are straight from h*ll (not surprisingly from china…”
I know exactly the ones you’re talking about…I’ll harvest them every two years to keep them manageable and prevent them from killing the underlying trees…missed last year since I was away, this season there were seven trailer loads. Pulling them out of the trees I’ll commonly get a thirty foot length. They’re particularly vile because although I looked up the scientific term one year I forget it but if a branch touches the ground an entriely new root system forms from that branch.
After getting all lengths out of the trees I’ll cut down the main roots to an inch then drill with a 1″ bit a little hole. Stuff a funnel in there tightly and fill it halfway with gas and let it leach in there…works to knock them back but nothing kills them.
Also, there’s a really sh1tty invasive Chinese tree that grows wildly and blocks all the sun from natural species. Look up the name, the literal translation in Chinese is “tree from hell”.
It’s a weed…of course none of that matters to the retired purple haired, duckbooted, lesbian environmentalists in my town, it’s fcuking plant and therefore sacred, can barely get a permit to trim them let alone take them down.
“Juice, those invasive plants are straight from h*ll (not surprisingly from china…”
I know exactly the ones you’re talking about…I’ll harvest them every two years to keep them manageable and prevent them from killing the underlying trees…missed last year since I was away, this season there were seven trailer loads. Pulling them out of the trees I’ll commonly get a thirty foot length. They’re particularly vile because although I looked up the scientific term one year I forget it but if a branch touches the ground an entriely new root system forms from that branch.
After getting all lengths out of the trees I’ll cut down the main roots to an inch then drill with a 1″ bit a little hole. Stuff a funnel in there tightly and fill it halfway with gas and let it leach in there…works to knock them back but nothing kills them.
Also, there’s a really sh1tty invasive Chinese tree that grows wildly and blocks all the sun from natural species. Look up the name, the literal trans1ation in Chinese is “tree from hell”.
It’s a weed…of course none of that matters to the retired purple haired, duckb00ted, lesb1an env1ronmental1sts in my town, it’s fcuking plant and therefore sacred, can barely get a permit to trim them let alone take them down.
Left,
It’s the tree of heaven like I posted above. Tree from hell is the nickname.
And what loves them are these beauties. Tree of heaven/ hell is paradise to them. Just wait, they hit my area last year. The spotted lanternfly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE7zXa0mAbc
Adults can be found on tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima), an invasive plant. In the fall in Pennsylvania, adult spotted lanternfly prefer to feed and mate on tree of heaven when compared to other host plants. That being said, proximity to tree of heaven did not significantly influence the number of spotted lanternfly found on other hosts in a 2015-2016 host plant evaluation conducted in PA. (After spending time on tree of heaven, the insects disperse in the local area to lay eggs just about anywhere.
https://ag.umass.edu/landscape/fact-sheets/spotted-lanternfly#:~:text=Adults%20can%20be%20found%20on,compared%20to%20other%20host%20plants.
The Federal Reserve is “out of control,” and “printing money like wild men,” Odeon Capital chief financial strategist Dick Bove told FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria” while discussing bank earnings.
BIDEN SPENDING SPREE TO UNLEASH INFLATION, BIG-MONEY MANAGERS WORRY
DICK BOVE: Okay, I’m going to have to explain that by giving it three buckets. First bucket is how are they doing in their core business? Making money from banking. And that was very bad right across the board in the quarter. Second bucket is capital markets. How are they doing in the investment banking and trading businesses? Those businesses were phenomenally strong in the quarter because the Fed, in my view, has lost control of the money supply. The third bucket is accounting manipulation. And I think in this quarter we’ve seen such an incredible amount of accounting manipulation by the banks that it has obscured what they’re really doing.
…
So put them all together and take a look at one bank, Citigroup. Citigroup’s banking earnings, earnings from its basic banking business were very poor. They actually went down year over year, which is true of every major bank in the United States. Citigroup’s capital markets business did pretty well. They… did a tremendous amount of SPAC underwriting in the quarter and therefore their capital markets results were reasonably good. And then we get to the accounting manipulation issue. And Citigroup was off the charts here, in terms of what they did with their loan loss provision, the loan loss reserves. So when you put it all together, basically the banks did not have good earnings in the quarter. They had great accounting manipulation. And if they were solely in capital markets like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, they’re looking really good.
Now going forward, what should you be looking at? You should be looking at the fact that, again, the Fed is out of control. It’s printing money like wild men. Basically, the M2 is up 26% year-over-year. And that money all goes into the banks and the banks, if the economy is going to be very strong in the second half, which I believe it will be, the banks are going to lend that money in core banking business will do better. So not such a good quarter that we’ve seen. Very good quarters coming up.
Ticker Security Last Change Change %
C CITIGROUP, INC. 72.13 -0.31 -0.43%
MS MORGAN STANLEY 80.03 +1.44 +1.83%
…
In other words, we’re still looking at what is left over from the economy that did not turn around yet. And that’s showing up in the fact that banks, number one, have not been able to increase the commercial and industrial lending. Number two, are actually not even lending more money on mortgages. Number three, doing poorly in terms of consumer lending, except on autos, where there has been an improvement. So, yes, we’re going to see a very strong improvement, I think, in the second half this year. And, yes, that’s going to result in a lot of bank loans and a lot of bank profits. But it has not happened yet.
…
I think that if you take a look at the money supply numbers and compare them to the growth in the economy, you can see that over the past two years, money supply is growing ten times faster than the economy. Now, I know nobody believes in monetary economics any longer. Unfortunately, I’m an old guy, so I do. And… I can’t conceive of the fact that I can grow at 10 times faster than the economy without stimulating inflation. And as far as Citigroup is concerned, I think that we’re being focused on the wrong issue. We’re being focused on this as being a big consumer bank around the world, which it is not. It’s been cutting back businesses for the last 25 years and they can’t seem to get it right yet. The company has become a capital markets company and hopefully that’s where they will grow in the future.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is proposing a guaranteed basic income pilot program in his upcoming budget, putting L.A. front and center in the debate over how government can most effectively combat poverty and spur equitable economic recovery in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The $24 million program would be the largest experiment of its kind in the United States.
Under the proposal, dubbed “BIG: LEAP” (Basic Income Guaranteed: L.A. Economic Assistance Pilot), 2,000 Angeleno families at or below the federal poverty line would receive $1,000 a month for one year, no strings attached.
“We have to end America’s addiction to poverty,” Garcetti said in an exclusive interview with LAist. “For families who can’t think past the next bill, the next shift or the next health problem that they have, we can give them the space to not only dream of a better life, but to actualize it.”
The selection criteria for participant households is still being developed, but will likely include supporting a child under the age of 18 and a demonstrated medical or financial hardship connected to COVID-19, the Mayor’s office said. Each council district would have a share of funding based on its poverty rate. The program would be open to everyone regardless of immigration status.
The goal? If successful, the Los Angeles pilot would serve as a major proof-of-concept for direct cash assistance that is divorced from the work requirements attached to many safety net programs for poor Americans, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Mayor Eric Garcetti could do a much bigger program if they reformed (eliminated) their corrupt DROP program.
Watch LA implode under the gravitational force of such idiocy. Why not offer such a program in Bakersfield or Fresno? LA is going to attract the opposite of best and brightest. Worst and stupidest?
” receive $1,000 a month for one year, no strings attached.”
I’ll take that. Send me some.
The program would be open to everyone regardless of immigration status.
There are no words to describe the lunacy of the left. A liberal wouldn’t p1ss on a burning body to save a life if it meant gaining more power and control. They could care less for another’s plight. We all know it, why don’t they just come out and say it?
Did she incite a riot? Or call for direct physical violence? Wait and see.
Did her comments give Chauvin terrific ammunition for appeal? Well, let’s see what the actual judge in that case had to say. This judge, who formerly worked for Amy Klobuchar, agrees that the potential for mistrial on appeal is there.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/politics/judge-derek-chauvin-maxine-waters-mistrial-appeal/index.html
Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency created as a joke, surged Monday to lift its 2021 return past 8,100%—more than double the gains since 1988 on the S&P 500, including dividends. Dogecoin’s rise to a value of about $50 billion goes a step beyond the stunning social-media-fueled advance in GameStop earlier this year by turning what was meant as a parody into a real asset, providing some early traders with extraordinary gains. The latest stage of the frenzy centers on online forums’ having declared Tuesday “Doge Day,” a loosely organized bid to push the price to $1, from less than a penny in January.
Waters has now guaranteed that she could be called as a witness by Trump in his own defense against her own lawsuit.
LOL.
Feared for their lives. Some things never change.
https://youtu.be/TdCpI2qdsd8?t=835
Doge . . . famous last words, but I don’t think this price can lift much past $0.40. There has been a lot of sell pressure around the $0.40 line the last few days and that has continued even though today is Doge Day. Volume is way down compared to a few days ago. The coinonomics of this coin are very inflationary. In sum, I do not think DOGE hits $1 today.
crushed, are you into actively trading cryptos?
My youngest is up 6x on his doge….I try to help where I can, getting him to exit in stages to take some profit. Texting with him this morning he’s dumped 1/3 so far on his own and will likely exit another third or all depending on movement today.
LOL, I watch, don’t even have a wallet…..
I see crypto as the same as late 90’s tech bubble. Following same pattern. Bunch of young people making quick money that is only on paper. People using .com to pump their company and people using crypto to pump their company. There is an Amazon (Bitcoin?)in there, but a lot will be worthless. Capitalism going to work once again. It can be wild and ugly at times.
Thanks, but I would be a bigger fool than you are if I were to consider your view on anything financial, pancake-boy
Crypto/blockchain is here to stay, that’s for sure. What will evolve from it (how will it change our lives)..who knows? I think Cathie knows.
All jokes aside, she seems to have a firm grasp on where this is going.
Go yank your pud over a photo of your heroine….God knows it will be the most return from her you’ve seen since investing.
Leftwing,
No. I do not really actively trade crypto. Mostly, I just buy and hold the main coins with some small holdings in random altcoins.
I have dabbled in trading insane altcoins, though, with small, small amounts occasionally. I appreciate the 24/7 nature of it, so sometimes I play around trading altcoins when the stock market is closed and I feel a compulsion to waste some time (like playing video games but more productive). To do so, I use Binance. If you want, I can send you a referral link so you can open an account. If you did so, we each would each get 10% of your trading fees (note: trading fees are very small). Or, if your youngest has a binance account already, ask him and get your referral link from him – he can set it where he would get 20% of your trading commissions paid to him in whateverr coin you are trading!.
That is great that your child has an interest and some apparent skill in trading/investing. This, with DCF analysis, is arguably the most valuable skill in the world.
Constantly referring to someone you don’t know, by their first name, makes you look weird, just saying.
crushed, LOL, I got that reference….I’ll ask him, otherwise I’ll grab you for a referral if I decide to go down that route….Not sure I have the DNA for crypto, is it all just technical?
More and more mainstream crypto instutitons hire former CFTC/SEC officials. BlockFi, BinanceUS today, many before. Paypal/Venmo, COIN etc are there. It is too big to ban now.
My guess will be an additional 10% crypto tax to pay the excessive spending and tame the market.
A trillion dollars is too big to ban. The government, in its ignorance, views it as just an asset, so they want to tax it like anything else, and that’s a lot of tax dollars. This is good for the long term future of currencies IMO as crypto is going to force some sort of discipline at some point as Gresham’s law takes effect. How long this takes, years, decades, that’s up in the air.
We will see who is laughing 5 to 10 years from now.
leftwing says:
April 20, 2021 at 9:48 am
Go yank your pud over a photo of your heroine….God knows it will be the most return from her you’ve seen since investing
How old will Cathie be then?
re: “Crypto/blockchain is here to stay, that’s for sure?”
DDTtqnuZ5kfRT5qh2c7sNtqrJmV3iXYdGG
Anyone know what that is? If you had the private key to this address for DOGE you would be a billionaire right now. Someone joined Dogecoin a month after it was launched back in Dec 2013 and mined 5 billion coins when mining difficult was close to Zero and could be done on a home computer, today difficulty has increased to 4 million. You cannot mine profitable without special hardware and subsidized electricity folks.
This person BTW has not transacted (sold any) since April 2014. There are many many others just like it, some may have lost the wallet, lost the rig mining it running it etc, lost interest, forgot password to the wallet etc and moved on etc.
None of this is stable, and can be accounted for purposes of simple taxation. You have to volunteer the information folks. Governments don’t like it, regulators don’t like it and it has the potential to destabilize lots lives and economies around the world with purse speculation like tulips and the south seas bubble where an entire country suffered a catastrophic loss of money.
Expect a ban, China is ahead of us on this. You will see. Play with your monopoly money for now but be sure to cash out before they unplug the machines that make all of this work. Without the miners and the massive costs to keep the network hashing away this all disappears. The massive costs are paid for by new entrants paying for the coins mined. That money is transferred to them, once it is illegal or no longer profitable it gets shut off.
Isn’t this the truth…
https://tinyurl.com/w8exbfw
Is there a bigger POS out there than Phil Murphy? Other than treating the state and office as a springboard for his aspirations, he’s going to leave the state in complete disarray. Can you insult people’s intelligence any further than saying “better safe than sorry” for why we are doing a bunch of pointless rituals such as sanitizing pens after signing his garbage legislation. This guy is a real first class elitist pos who thinks he knows better and is ultimately destructive in a lot of ways.
FE,
That’s funny. But what do you expect from a lawyer?
“If you had the private key to this address for DOGE you would be a billionaire right now.”
That’s what quantum computing is for. Decoding DOGE keys and siphoning off the money.
Phoenix – 2 to the power of 256 permutations (possible private keys) when considering something like a brute force attack of trying every single combination.
For giggles it’s written out as a number like this.
One hundred fifteen quattuorvigintillion, seven hundred ninety-two trevigintillion, eighty-nine duovigintillion, two hundred thirty-seven unvigintillion, three hundred sixteen vigintillion, one hundred ninety-five novemdecillion, four hundred twenty-three octodecillion, five hundred seventy septendecillion, nine hundred eighty-five sexdecillion, eight quindecillion, six hundred eighty-seven quattuordecillion, nine hundred seven tredecillion, eight hundred fifty-three duodecillion, two hundred sixty-nine undecillion, nine hundred eighty-four decillion, six hundred sixty-five nonillion, six hundred forty octillion, five hundred sixty-four septillion, thirty-nine sextillion, four hundred fifty-seven quintillion, five hundred eighty-four quadrillion, seven trillion, nine hundred thirteen billion, one hundred twenty-nine million, six hundred thirty-nine thousand, nine hundred thirty-six!
Even quantum computing is only expected to reduce the time from pow(2,256) to pow(2,256/2). So you only need to guess the square root of the private key using quantum computing. That should what only take a few hundred billion years instead of quadrillions of years.
Without checking a website who knows if their town has a bicycle registration requirement.
This is wrong on so many levels.
https://twitter.com/AmolSinha/status/1384347400018534400
“Isn’t this the truth…”
I distinctly recall typing, here I think, during the Dem primaries when she was running in the low single digits something to the order of ‘thank god, I couldn’t take that cackle for four years….’
whoopsie….
Murphy, O’Biden, Carmella, Pelosi, Mad Max Waters, CNN, Liberals… all f.ucking useless and the followers keep hoping for some delusional utopia to emerge. A complete bobo clan of intellectual nothingness… a Vegas style government that promises harmony and equality while tossing monopoly money from the stimmy ‘copter. Build Back Better… LOL!
I wonder if they make good Chicken Tendies?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-20/hometown-international-new-jersey-deli-is-actually-worth-2-billion
Hometown International Inc., the deli in Paulsboro, New Jersey, that is a $100 million public company for very perplexing reasons, had another good day yesterday. After trading 27,381 shares, total, from the beginning of 2021 until last Thursday, an average of just 353 shares per day, it traded 42,762 shares on Friday — after David Einhorn pointed to its valuation as an example of current market excess — and then 14,989 shares yesterday. It closed at $13.01, up slightly from Friday’s close of $12.99, down slightly from Thursday’s pre-Einhorn close of $13.50.
Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious. From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.
“That’s what quantum computing is for. Decoding DOGE keys and siphoning off the money.”
LOL, my oldest just gave me an education this weekend on P=NP and its implications.
Stunning where society is going when one excludes the SJW, liberal arts fools who have all the microphones and political platforms and focus instead on people who are actually advancing knowledge and technology.
The idea that a Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, Waters, or Murphy should have any say into the activities of these peoples’ lives is such an insane affront to society as to border on sacrilege.
Fab – Seems cops warned them to behave or else. Kid being detained said he lived in Edison. More to the story as usual.
https://nj1015.com/perth-amboy-cops-confiscate-bicycles-over-lack-of-license/
Anecdotal when we were punk kids riding around aimlessly against traffic and signals and signs etc on bicycles we were stopped, and permits checked. There was a registration requirement do to the amount of bicycles being stolen etc, there were back then a few kids arrested too for stealing bikes for parts to be resold.
I wish I knew I could get $2000 today for a vintage Mongoose….
https://www.ebay.com/b/Mongoose-Vintage-Bikes/177858/bn_73312993
Fab – Seems cops warned them to behave or else. Kid being detained said he lived in Edison, that is a good 10 miles away.. More to the story as usual.
https://nj1015.com/perth-amboy-cops-confiscate-bicycles-over-lack-of-license/
Anecdotal when we were punk kids riding around aimlessly against traffic and signals and signs, through people’s yards etc on bicycles we were stopped, and permits checked. There was a registration requirement do to the amount of bicycles being stolen etc, there was back then a few kids arrested too for stealing bikes for parts to be resold.
I wish I knew I could get $2000 today for a vintage Mongoose….check ebay…
Anecdotal when I was one of those punk kids riding around aimlessly against traffic and signals and signs, through people’s yards etc on bicycles we were stopped, and permits checked. There was a registration requirement do to the amount of bicycles being stolen etc, there was back then a few kids arrested too for stealing bikes for parts to be resold.
I wish I knew I could get $2000 today for a vintage Mongoose….check ebay…
P = NP is true but we cannot explain how or why yet. Perhaps when the Aliens come later this year they will explain it to us before the eat us.
Every town has pet and bicycle registrations. Compliance is probably below 5% on both of them.
“We will see who is laughing 5 to 10 years from now.”
OK, Annie. Want to take the other side of the trade on the sun rising on the morning of 4/20/2031?
Anyway, I would be leading the return race so far because as I posted here a couple months ago I took her initial BEAM buy and piggybacked it into at least 20% cashing out when the stock was north of $100 a share….Her cost is somewhere in the 90s (stock currently at 69.50) so she’s pretty deeply red and on my second foray into her BEAM idea I’m up 20.58% as I type, with a breakeven around $49.
I don’t care enough about you or her to debate it but I will repeat my points on her….solid idea generator, but way too green as a manager of this amount of money. There are red flags everywhere….the constant mistakes in her data she sends out publicly, the lack of resources especially anyone with experience in managing aggregate funds of this size, the highly concentrated positions that will crush her fund in when drawdowns (inevitably) come, and her judgment to add yet another fund in the face of all these challenges…the most mind numbing red flag emblematic of the above, she is taking positions in the aftermarket on IPOs and SPACs she could have at issue price…lol, the bankers at MS must be scratching their heads and laughing their asses off at her, buying shares on a 20%+ pop when if she had any clue a simple phone call to the desk would get her an allocation not only on the shares she’s interested in but on future issues as well…..
Her strength is as strategist and CIO, not large fund manager. That is analogous to a Wharton business school professor vs. a head of equity capital markets. The former in each case can see the big picture and explain how everything works. Actually doing it with real feet on the ground, putting a finance professor in charge of an equity desk? Not on your life. Or at least not with my money.
She’s a good strategist, green large fund manager. Pass.
Except for milking her ideas, many which are good.
I’ll give Maxine Waters this. She would have made a good Trumpy. She’s as crazy as Trump is! Hopefully the bad cop hangs.
12:56 you lost me at liberal arts fools.
This guy is a real first class elitist pos who thinks he knows better and is ultimately destructive in a lot of ways.
I can’t think of a single issue that Murphy has been right on.
I can’t think of a single issue that Murphy has been right on.
Come on… you can now get st0ned legally and identify as nonb1nary on your driver’s license. What more do you want? Murphy getting things done for the People’s S0cial1st State of New Jersey!!
I’m not sure how many NJ towns have bicycle registration laws, but I know it’s not every one of them.
Salamai Crumble says:
April 20, 2021 at 1:12 pm
Every town has pet and bicycle registrations. Compliance is probably below 5% on both of them.
you can now get st0ned legally
It was legal during classical america. What’s wrong with legalizing it now?
What’s wrong with legalizing it now?
Nothing wrong with it… just pointing out one of the “greatest” achievements of the Muppy Administration.
joyce says:
April 20, 2021 at 2:45 pm
“What’s wrong with legalizing it now?”
You’d think that a society that’s experiencing a decline in life expectancy due in large part to drug use/abuse, would think twice about legalizing recreational drug use.
“Marijuana Legalization Has Led To More Use And Addiction While Illegal Market Continues To Thrive” – https://www.rivermendhealth.com/resources/marijuana-legalization-led-use-addiction-illegal-market-continues-thrive/
Verdict in on Chauvin. read in about an hour and a half.
This fast, guilty.
Guilty on all three counts? You would think at least one if not all. Curious though… didn’t the jury in the OJ trial return a verdict within 24 hours?
I feel that individuals should have the right to decide for themselves. To me, it aligns with what small government/conservative people advocate for.
SmallGovConservative says:
April 20, 2021 at 3:26 pm
joyce says:
April 20, 2021 at 2:45 pm
“What’s wrong with legalizing it now?”
You’d think that a society that’s experiencing a decline in life expectancy due in large part to drug use/abuse, would think twice about legalizing recreational drug use.
“Marijuana Legalization Has Led To More Use And Addiction While Illegal Market Continues To Thrive” – https://www.rivermendhealth.com/resources/marijuana-legalization-led-use-addiction-illegal-market-continues-thrive/
Just did a search… the jury in the OJ trial took less than four hours to deliberate. Wow.
It’s starting to look like New York City will be just fine
https://apple.news/AB2KHQb1zSsuOXDpgQRebpQ
Fast, let’s see if the animals will burn their city regardless.
I have a feeling that legalizing sports betting will do more long-term damage than legalizing weed in NJ. I’ve also lived in about ten towns in my life and they all required bicycle registration. Except in the most rural towns, I can’t think of any towns of 5,000 or more that doesn’t require the colossal waste of time and money. Then again? What do we pay in NJ for the privilege of registering a car in NJ? We already pay the highest in the nation for title and insurance. So much for economies of scale.
leftwing,
I would not be surprised either way. Though I still think some sort of reform is necessary.
I don’t think any of the three charges requires intent so he’s gone….
Agree Lib
4:25 you lost me at animals.
“Guilty” all charges.
SX, seems like you need a compass today
Alex I’ll take cump ass for 500.
Dude, you said times were getting tough but really?
BTW, after some g00gling you really ought to charge more than $500……
Not pump ass…
Do colleges have their students cold calling high school kids to recruit them? I just got a call and was wondering if this is normal or a new scam.
Some of the schools are feeling the heat. Enrollment is off. A lot of kids are not into paying for distance learning. Go figure.
So I gather the three other cops involved the white officer Lane, the Asian officer Thao and the black officer Keung (who arrested George) must be quaking in their boots right now, their trial is in August.
The President of Chad died today on the front lines of an armed conflict against rebels in his country like some medieval king.
It is a shame that CNN will not break from round-the-clock Chauvin/George Floyd coverage to give this story 30 seconds of airtime. Or, I suppose it is a shame that the mainstream news-consuming American public isn’t 30 seconds worth of interested in this.
Leftwing at 9:50 . . .
Yes, for me trading alts is just half-brained technical chart watching, mixed with reading about the underlying projects. Ape-style, WSB trading.
I’m sure there is fascinating work being done out there in figuring out how the correlations among the alts should work (like, comparing staking rewards, defi interest rates, rates of adoption, etc.). Also, I’m sure the arbitrage bots have been working amongst the different exchanges in this space since 2013. It’d be interesting to meet a crypto arbitrage millionaire – they’re out there somewhere.
Last downturn, from $20k to $3k was precedent by sh1tcoin rally outperforming BTC. People going, well BTC is expensive, let me get these cheaper ones. Seeing a lot of that, Litecoin, Doge, Safemoon (wtf is safemoon?). I don’t think massive crypto crash (above 80%) is baked in any more. It was a bubble in 2017, but a lot of things changed since then. I think you’ll see $100k followed by major pullback down to the $60k range it’s at right now. Too many HODLers. I’m looking for a market deleveraging event where everything sells off with a dollar rally, similar to 2008. Maybe this fall? It’s not a good look when you see these random funds go completely bust when markets are making all time highs.
If I recall correctly, Bear Stearns went bust in March and we saw the rest unfold after the summer. House down the street from me is going for moonshot, $1ook over what I would consider recent comp price.