From CNBC:
April existing home sales drop, marking three straight months of declines
Sales of existing homes dropped 2.7% in April from March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.85 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It was the third straight month of declines, the group said.
Sales were 33.9% higher than April 2020, but that comparison is an anomaly because the housing market and economy shut down at the start of the pandemic. Housing then rebounded strongly last summer. Sales were still 11% stronger than April 2019.
“I would say it is hot, that is the one word description even with the sales decline,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. For every listing there are 5.1 offers. Half of the homes are being sold above list price.”
The supply of homes for sale at the end of April was down 20%. There were 1.16 million homes for sale, representing a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace.
High demand and rock-bottom supply continued to push prices higher. The median price of an existing home sold in April was $341,600, an increase of 19.1% from April 2020. That is both the highest median price on record and the largest annual increase on record.
Much of that large increase in the median price is due to the mix of homes that are selling. There is far more activity on the higher end of the market, where supply is more plentiful, and very little activity on the low end, where the shortage is most severe.
Foist
Interesting insights from Dave Rosenberg. Says inflation short term. Lots of detail pieces parts to the bigger puzzle. Not a heard mentality guy for sure.
https://www.macrovoices.com/975-macrovoices-272-david-rosenberg-inflation-will-be-transitory
Inflation is transitory? In housing prices too?
I’m starting to think Biden might just Tee up a Republican resurgence in 2024.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 11, 2021 at 10:08 pm
Pumpkins next big call…wait for it.
The world better get used to deflationary economic theories. Inflation is going to be a short blimp on the long term map. Being very scared of deflation. Thank the fed for pumping like it is.
Understand, the world population is peaking. Combined with extreme disruptive innovation, good luck with extreme inflation on the long term…
Seriously…get in ARk funds. Not going to find a better hedge against this future.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 11, 2021 at 10:10 pm
Inflation, sure, in the short term. Long term, no way in f’ing hell. Invest accordingly. Understand, huge opportunity to invest in growth tech stocks that have been beaten to sh!t.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 11, 2021 at 10:14 pm
Love real estate, but would rather have my money in ark funds. Both are winning investments over the next 10 years. If you lose money on either over the next 10 years; you are either stupid or have really bad luck.
Nomad says:
May 22, 2021 at 7:53 am
Interesting insights from Dave Rosenberg. Says inflation short term. Lots of detail pieces parts to the bigger puzzle. Not a heard mentality guy for sure.
https://www.macrovoices.com/975-macrovoices-272-david-rosenberg-inflation-will-be-transitory
Do you understand that real estate beats inflation by a 100 miles? Trick is buying the right location at the right time.
If ALL REAL ESTATE only kept up with inflation, no one would be getting filthy rich off real estate. Understand this.
3b says:
May 22, 2021 at 9:07 am
Inflation is transitory? In housing prices too?
I said it for how long on this blog. People rather laugh. It’s all good.
I just wish they would stop thinking this run up in housing is due to Covid. Boils my blood. It’s due to market fundamentals. Too bad 90% of the population doesn’t truly understand markets or they would stop blaming Covid.
Yo! says:
May 21, 2021 at 9:57 pm
Huuuge housing highs.
How haters ‘splain big #s?
NJ home house huuugnes isn’t borrowing. It is real estate fax.
3b,
If you don’t understand what my post was saying….it’s not inflation driving up housing. It’s pure demand. It has overwhelmed supply like I told you would happen for 8 years now on this blog. You just didn’t want to hear it.
3b/Nomad,
That is a long one at 80m. Really don’t have time to listen to entirety. I caught 15m. Smart guy but he did he even mention the student debt forbearance or eviction moratorium impacting increased savings? Did he discuss job mix instead of focusing on 3.5 unemployment success? Looking at past as QE guidance is foolish as free PPE loans, crazy stimulus, WFH, and moratoriums have to be repealed in order to see what you really have. That is tricky. Longer inflation lasts and people pay these prices the harder price discovery will be later and people will be hurt. Go on indeed and type Line cook. There are hundreds of local jobs willing to pay 25-30 hr. These are jobs to stuff rich fat f$cks gullet over summer. They will be fired come October and no food service will continue to pay it. The economy is competent uknowen but like someone said inflation might be transitory but prices are forever.
Bystander,
Face it. The fed knows what they are doing. They have been absolutely rocking it for 12 years now. They finally achieved some healthy inflation in our economy. People were crying for this for how long? Fed delivers it, and the people start panicking like this is going to be an environment of massive inflation. Sure. Understand the FED is battling a very tough battle with deflation and they are winning. It’s magnificent to watch and appreciate getting to live through it.
Yes, I heard all the millennials had a meeting in 2020 and said now it the time to buy. Raise the rates back to 3.5% and you will find out what demand there is. The Fed won’t do it. It will all explode. Instead, stick fingers in ears and push narrative that paying 200k more for a house is just fine..transitory..like a spirit moving on to next world..in this case it will be to the fires of hell. Wages going nowhere for these white collar dummies.
Why would you raise the rates to 3.5% when you are at war with deflation? Why? Please explain.
It’s funny, your profession is getting destroyed by deflation. You talk about lower and lower costs in your profession. Well, imagine if the fed didn’t have rates low…what would be happening to you?
That’s why I love ark funds. That’s why I’m investing in it over the next 10 years. They are a hell of a hedge vs deflation. Can’t beat em, join em…right?
8/14…..with one quoting himself…….
Informative morning….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zWsTnSl9hk&ab_channel=FGfunnyscenesFGfunnyscenes
Fear is driving these housing prices. It would help if one actually talked to millennials and asked them. Not demand fear.
This inflation is not transitory , but rather permanent. It will be the new base. Now the Fed is backed in the corner, they won’t want prices to decline, then its deflation concerns. It’s all going to collapse upon itself. I don’t understand how any one with an ounce of a clue can say the Fed has been doing a great job these past 12 years. They are destroying the economy, the country, and future generations. Thanks Boomers !
You are seriously dumb. Wages in my profession have nothing to do with traditional deflationary pressures (lack of demand). It is global currency wage arbitrage and lack of changes to H1B minimum wage. There is tremendous need but only at price that matches India. Those are the income caps that JCer and I see everyday. Are you such a dolt that you talk about innovation investment yet think tech resources are not needed?
Bystander,
My bad, the actual commentary starts around 10 min and he speaks for about 45 min. Basically, a spike in demand for now that will subside as supply starts to ramp. He has some net resting data to share as well as history. So much info out there, too much to digest. Prior to listening, I had thought things would change in a big way starting Sept and he confirmed it. It will be interesting to see how many good jobs that transitioned to WFH get eliminated in the next 18 mos. politically the big companies cut workers a lot of slack since the start of COVID. That slack will start to subside in a few months.
Eight seconds ago you said you were going to sell it all and buy crypto-currency. Please leave. I’m asking politely.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 22, 2021 at 11:24 am
That’s why I love ark funds. That’s why I’m investing in it over the next 10 years. They are a hell of a hedge vs deflation. Can’t beat em, join em…right?
Here is how it works in private sector sh&thead:
-You get a employee number when you join. Your employee rank, comp and location then gets tracked very closely by executives.
-When your comp becomes more than what they can pay someone in India they sniff around with your manager (they call it their 3 year location strategy)
-If you have a good rating and manager defends your work, your reward is keep job for that year but expect no raise or real bonus.
-If not, kiss as$ goodbye.
-In background execs are figuring out a way to move your manager work elsewhere without risking that systems collapse with the knowledge exodus. When he/she goes, you go
Another tidbit on indignancy being a US worker. I have been trying to get rid of one of my reports in Zurich for a year. Dev team hates her. I inherited her when I joined bank. They finally have rif and she gets..wait for it..9 months paid notice with garden leave (does not have to work at all). She has only been here 3 years. In US, the absolute top treatment you normally get is end of month for health benefits coverage before COBRA and two weeks severance for every year. Meanwhile it is 6 months or more to find a job. Keep waiving those USA flags
My area was booming today. The shopping plaza we went to had no open parking spots. I had to drive around it twice before I grabbed a spot. People are tire of being cooped up.
Pfizer first doses with a material jump upwards in the last week. Not just the 12-15, must be some of these family vax events they have going on.
Hope they are wrong.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9608675/CDC-investigating-heart-problems-teenagers-young-adults-Moderna-Pfizer-vaccine.html#reader-comments
Wtf?! Wake the f’k up!
3b says:
May 22, 2021 at 11:57 am
Fear is driving these housing prices. It would help if one actually talked to millennials and asked them. Not demand fear.
Dude, it was coin and eth, both of which I believe in long term.
It’s not easy playing the long term game when you are in ARK. What matters, I have not sold one share. I was tempted, but I have stayed disciplined.
PumpkinFace says:
May 22, 2021 at 12:16 pm
Eight seconds ago you said you were going to sell it all and buy crypto-currency. Please leave. I’m asking politely.
Are you serious?! Like I tell 3b, wake the f’k up!
Do you understand what deflation is? Are your wages rising? Is the cost of labor rising for your employer? You have said they have dropped tremendously over the last 20 years. Your words, not mine.
I don’t give a s’t about anything but the facts. The facts are you are facing deflationary pressures in your profession.
Bystander says:
May 22, 2021 at 12:03 pm
You are seriously dumb. Wages in my profession have nothing to do with traditional deflationary pressures (lack of demand). It is global currency wage arbitrage and lack of changes to H1B minimum wage. There is tremendous need but only at price that matches India. Those are the income caps that JCer and I see everyday. Are you such a dolt that you talk about innovation investment yet think tech resources are not needed?
And the child lashes out in anger yet again.
And he got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning
In our view, the rotation from growth into value stocks has broadened & strengthened the bull market significantly, preventing another tech & telecom bubble & setting the stage for another leg up in innovation-based strategies.
New blog by @CathieDWood!
https://twitter.com/arkinvest/status/1395857635824517120?s=21
Cathie is right again…healthy rotation saved the market from a massive bubble. Setting the stage for the next cycle.
I’m not angry…I’m sorry if it comes off that way. I have fun here.
Ark’s Cathie Wood is sticking with her $500,000 target for Bitcoin #TheBusinessweek trib.al/6k3GWuE
https://twitter.com/bw/status/1395042557520928769?s=21
How long have I been saying this on this blog? A perfect time to be dollar cost avg into these funds.
“Many investors increased allocations to innovation-based strategies late last year and early this year. Even at the peak of the market, that strategy appeared to hold merit given the unexpectedly high growth rates that we believe are evolving in the five innovation platforms around which we have centered our research: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. Enabled by 14 technologies, these platforms have been gestating for the past 20-30 years and, in our view, only recently have hit the escape velocity that will result in exponential growth trajectories during the next five to ten years.
The good news is that fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have provided investors with an opportunity to average down into some innovation strategies at an approximate 30-40% discount to their recent peaks. Typically, FUD accelerates the adoption of new technologies as concerned businesses and consumers change their behavior patterns and adopt products and services that are less expensive, more productive, and more creative than those in the legacy world. The coronavirus pandemic accelerated behavior shifts that already were underway and are unlikely to reverse now that the world is recovering from its shock. For the most part, therefore, during the past three months our long-term earnings projections associated with companies enabling the 14 technologies involved in disruptive innovation have not changed. Their stocks, however, have dropped 30-40% on average as noted previously.”
Beautiful house.
Tax bill is 56k, more than the avg income in America. NYC metro economy is loaded with wealth.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Pines-Lake-Dr-E-Wayne-NJ-07470/39800381_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Again, would dumb@$$ say the same thing if we went full remote, let go off many teachers and paid Indian teachers 1/4 of pay? Would he say there is no demand for teaching or that your govt is allowing demand to be satisfied by cheaper means globally and giving US teachers the middle finger?
I empathize with you. Why do you think I’m against WFH? I see the long term impact, and you have to be an idiot to sign up for having your job done “anywhere.” You are competing with an enormous market in a remote setting, which means, you will most likely lose your job or have your wages drastically lowered to keep said job.
Yet, clowns like 3b are proposing that this is a good thing for workers. Sure, whatever you say. You live too much in the now and don’t think enough about tomorrow.
If “remote learning” was a success, I would be just as pissed as you. Though, I would start looking for another career immediately.
I signed up for the free computer science course “cs50.” Just trying to learn another skill valuable to tomorrow in case I ever need it. No rush in learning it, but just working on it when I can.
Bystander says:
May 23, 2021 at 10:26 am
Again, would dumb@$$ say the same thing if we went full remote, let go off many teachers and paid Indian teachers 1/4 of pay? Would he say there is no demand for teaching or that your govt is allowing demand to be satisfied by cheaper means globally and giving US teachers the middle finger?
The only clown is you Pumps. A crappy teacher who fancies himself an expert on every topic finance, economics, the markets housing. You think because you are against WFH it’s going to stop it? You talk about signing up for it , WTF does that mean? Is that like top of the line college?? Companies have been out sourcing jobs for years, and before WFH positions were already becoming geographically agnostic. You have been schooled on this repeatedly, but you refuse to listen. It’s only the old school boomers and generation X that are against WFH, and that’s because they for the most part worked while the wives stayed home and raised kids. Those days are over, as it takes two incomes now and much of that is because of the massive increase in house prices that you cheer . What an idiot. You hate WFH because you are scared it will affect your cushy
Lifestyle where your spouse earns most of the income due to her commercial real estate position. Secondly, you are concerned about your house value as people won’t need to buy real estate close to the city, not that anyone wants to schlep from Wayne to NYC. Your lifestyle could change, and you don’t want that. These are the reasons you hate WFH.
3b,
I make just as much as my wife when you combine passive income. That’s not including housing appreciation on my investment property.
I feel bad for you, 3b. Your job is going to WFH? Only a matter of time before they try to squeeze you. How are you going to pay the rent? Btw, my wife won’t be working from home…same as for me.
Michael…Michael….Michael
Step away
From the keyboard
WFH or the option to do so will be a major differentiator going forward.
No everyone want to live in metro areas. They kind of suuuuuuck.
Get ready for deflation, also buy real estate now, there is no stopping price increases.
I make just as much money as my wife when you add in the rent owed to me the past year. I talked to my tenant, he will pay me as soon as his ARK funds 5x.
“Again, would dumb@$$ say the same thing…Would he say….”
Why do care? Why do you even read him?
Any time spent thinking about or responding to his posts is time entirely wasted that you will not ever recapture in your life. It is worthless……thrown away….
Go out in the sun. Read the newspaper. Masturbate in the middle of the street in your neighborhood. Literally any activity you do is more productive for you than responding.
Phoenix, the news you posted above from a different source…it’s a fluff piece skewed with opinion minimizing what they agree is undefined risk right now, but even NYT picked it up.
From the article…”We look forward to seeing more data about these cases, so we can better understand…”
Yeah, why follow half a century of established scientific protocol including data collection, analysis, and adverse event follow up studies before injecting powerful biologicals into children? Jab, baby, jab!
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/health/cdc-heart-teens-vaccination.html
Go out in the sun…check
Read the newspaper….check
Masturbate in the middle of the street…..check
That’s a bingo!!!
Tri-fecta baby!
But the real question, can you do all three concurrently!
Deflation is not going to happen in real estate because of DEMAND and not enough supply. Wake up already.
The FED will continue to make sure the market does not hit deflation. Aka low rates and modest inflation…not runaway inflation.
Real estate might get its day of reckoning next decade. Not happening this decade.
12:42 challenge accepted.
The bail money is in my jacket.
“Making as money money as your wife…”
Highly overrated.
Harvard asian lawsuit arrives at the Supreme Court, seeking cert. Maybe the Supreme Court takes the case and ends affirmative action??
In Grutter v. Bollinger, the Supreme Court said something like “by 2028, we expect that the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary.” Maybe the Supreme Court decides 2021 or 2022 is sufficient for us to declare that using race as an explicit criteria is over. We’re all people, we’re all Americans, maybe it is time to end identity politics.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/05/harvard-argues-admissions-suit-isnt-worthy-of-supreme-court-review/
Pumps: Whatever you say dear.
Pool is 82 F and hot tub is 104 F. Music is jammin, and I chillin. Summer of fun is here.
Juice: Enjoy temporary retirement!!
No sh!t.
“Bosses Still Aren’t Sure Remote Workers Have ‘Hustle’
Post-pandemic, more employees will work remotely than did before Covid-19. Yet the views of some managers suggest the culture of office face time remains alive and well”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bosses-still-arent-sure-remote-workers-have-hustle-11621771201?st=mz0jjm2w3toqx34&reflink=article_copyURL_share
It’s exactly what is going to happen. Two classes of workers will emerge.
“Companies are trying out hybrid models, in which people divide their week between the office and home. Some are giving workers the option to work remotely full-time, as with Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. Yet plenty of bosses view five days in the office as proof that employees are ambitious and produc-tive, suggesting that, in some work-places, two classes of workers could emerge.”
In corporate America (unlike teaching) there are clear objectives that must be achieved. Employees are reviewed yearly, quarterly, and if these marks are hit the employee is a keeper. If somehow they miss or are ineffective they are usually moved along fairly quickly depending upon the company.
“ambition” is a rather amorphous term and doesn’t really say “effective”. You may be ambitious and a complete failure.
The only class of employee that matters in corporate life is one who knows what they are doing and gets things done. Achieves objectives. This has nothing to do with proximity or ‘ass-kissing’ or ‘being seen’. It’s all about being effective vs ineffective.
Give it a rest for the evening Pumps. We know the real reason you hate WFH, the rest is all BS.
Dedicated to Phx & left:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXYMf8vK–g
Unfortunately, the guy coming into the office that is effective shows more to his employer than the effective guy sitting home. Sometimes people need to “see” how hard you really are working. Sorry if this interferes with sitting in your underwear all day jerking off in the middle of the road with lefty.
Btw, plenty of ineffective workers in any profession or company. It’s always the few that make up for the rest. Always has been, always will be.
“The only class of employee that matters in corporate life is one who knows what they are doing and gets things done. Achieves objectives. This has nothing to do with proximity or ‘ass-kissing’ or ‘being seen’. It’s all about being effective vs ineffective.”