Housing hit a wall?

From CNBC:

Housing boom may be cooling as weekly mortgage demand drops again

High prices and low supply are finally taking some of the heat out of the housing market.

Even with interest rates falling slightly, mortgage application volume fell 4% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. It fell to the lowest level since February 2020.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 3% for the week and were 2% lower than a year ago. This is the second straight week that purchase demand was lower than a year earlier, even though mortgage rates are still lower.

Pending home sales, which are counted by signed contracts and are therefore an indicator of future closed sales, dropped a wider-than-expected 4.4% in April, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Buyers are clearly starting to hit an affordability wall. This is especially clear from the government loan demand. FHA and VA loans offer low or even no down payment options for borrowers with lower incomes and credit scores.

“Tight housing inventory, obstacles to a faster rate of new construction, and rapidly rising home prices continues to hold back purchase activity,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “The government purchase index declined to its lowest level in over a year and has now decreased year over year for five straight weeks.”

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284 Responses to Housing hit a wall?

  1. grim says:

    Biden’s vax statements yesterday not so bad. Some interesting ideas on how to better engage minority communities.

    Would like to see our vax diplomacy program be more targeted than simply working with covax. China has already provided more than 200 million vaccines to the ROW. US is talking 80 million doses, not including a potential 60 million more AZ doses pending approval. Needs to be a huge focus on supporting our neighbors and this hemisphere. Latam/South America/Caribbean all seem to be largely supported by China right now.

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Buyers are clearly starting to hit an affordability wall.

    Asking prices for the fat Mary, gas mask special are absurd. I think I’ve seen a few more houses pop up in my surrounding area the last few weeks, most likely those in or near retirement, looking to cash in. Those frigg1n’ boomers! ;) Then I look at the property taxes and want to vom1t. Someone needs to pay for the six-digit salary of that 2nd grade teacher.

  3. grim says:

    Agree, some shit boxes under contract around here in under a week.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Wayne always seems to have a supply of homes though, the town is huge. Anyway, this one seems doable and the taxes don’t seem too bad. I hate the f.ucking TVs mounted up on a wall, just a pet peeve. I’m not sure what that back extension is all about but overall, seems like the baths were redone:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/256-dorsa-ave-wayne-nj-07470–2006558612?mid=0#lil-mediaTab

  5. grim says:

    Terrible location, believe it’s in flood. If it was in a decent location, it would be 100-150k more.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    A 4bd/3bth with a “5” handle though the taxes are 12K plus:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/4-monterey-dr-wayne-nj-07470–2006563775

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Terrible location, believe it’s in flood.

    Which, I was going to add, needs to be determined based on location. :)

  8. 3b says:

    I am shocked at people paying 500k for junk, or horrible locations or both. Boomers win again!!

  9. Phoenix says:

    “Your Hometown Deli in Paulsboro, N.J., was just an unassuming sandwich stop,” CBS News reported. “Now it’s a Wall Street mystery.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/magazine/your-hometown-deli.html

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dumb boomers can’t take it with them…end up just giving it to their kids or the govt.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 8:57 am
    I am shocked at people paying 500k for junk, or horrible locations or both. Boomers win again!!

  11. MississipiM3thEddieInc3stHalfBrother says:

    To Grim,

    You have to be realistic. This country is right now in “save itself mode” not in “empire mode”. A good chunk of this country (like M3th Eddie) wants to create the Confederate States of America again. They are angry and dumb enough to do it. If it were to happen Russia will make a move on Alaska, China on Hawaii and all former USA territories. The northeast and liberal west coast will go with Canada and the central and southern states will become apartheid south africa/rhodesia with everyone slaughtering each other like prompting a UN intervention with chinese and russian troops.

    “Needs to be a huge focus on supporting our neighbors and this hemisphere. Latam/South America/Caribbean all seem to be largely supported by China right now.”

    To ByStander from last night,

    The financial crisis showed who runs this country. That is the Wall Street Banksters. China is just using the worm on the fishing rod to ensure the Bankster’s goals are aligned with the CCP’s goals. Wall Street is never going to be allowed to take too much or take the wealth out of China, but in their greed they will use their lobbying power for terms favorable to China.

    Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, summed up the new mood when he wrote in Foreign Policy magazine last year: “Why . . . should it be a US negotiating priority to open China’s financial system for Goldman Sachs?”

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So it’s really the kids or the govt winning.

  13. grim says:

    You have to be realistic.

    Lol – read that, and then your post. Race war that divides the country? Right. 0.000001% chance.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:
  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    These people killed it. Same neighborhood as the house I just showed. Bought in 2019 and just sold. I think it sold for 725 or 750(I have to ask my brother again).

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8-Mayfair-Dr-Wayne-NJ-07470/39791980_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

  16. Libturd, keeping it real says:

    Killed it?

    562.5 to 725 is what a 22.5% gain. That does not include carrying costs, realtor commissions, etc. So take away 5% commission 36K on the sale, 25,000 in taxes and probably another 25K in improvements, moving costs, etc. So the gain is now only 76.5K. So if the original owner put down 20% (they likely put down 5% and paid PMI on it), that’s 112.5K. In two years you are paying all interest so when the house sold for the 76.5K gain, you didn’t pay any of the loan off.

    Let’s see, 112.5K invested in the S&P 500 since June 10, of 2019 resulted in a 44% gain or 162K total or 50K.

    The 112.5K invested in the POS in Wayne netted 76.5K. That is, if the buyer put down 20%.

    26K is hardly a killing in my book, and I made a lot of extra conservative assumptions including benchmarking against the S&P 500.

  17. Libturd says:

    In other news, the mere mention of the FED reducing their bond purchasing last night is crashing the market.

    Nothing to see here. Buy your crypto now.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    I think it sold for 725 or 750

    That’s absurd, absolutely ridiculous that someone bought that house for almost 175K more than the previous owner two years prior.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    Anytime you get paid to live in a house for 2 years, it’s called winning.

  20. Libturd says:

    Let’s see the real sale price. Locals love to exaggerate to increase the paper value of their own homes.

    I also noticed that their assessment (improvement portion) went up $14,000 which means significant improvements. Believe me, if they profited, they did not profit THAT much.

    Grim, is there a database listing the mortgages in Wayne like they have down in Monmouth County?

  21. Libturd says:

    Found it. He put 20% down. How rare.

    I wonder how much of it came from Granny’s nest egg?

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, what are you talking about?

    “2020 $12,660 (+0.9%) $229,600
    2019 $12,548 (+0.9%) $229,600”

    “I also noticed that their assessment (improvement portion) went up $14,000 which means significant improvements. Believe me, if they profited, they did not profit THAT much.”

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If only people would have listened to me about Wayne being the best value in north jersey in 2018/2019.

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 3, 2021 at 10:01 am
    I think it sold for 725 or 750

    That’s absurd, absolutely ridiculous that someone bought that house for almost 175K more than the previous owner two years prior.

  24. Bystander says:

    Miss,

    Reality is that there is nothing left in this country and boomer generation extracting the last great wealth. A dope like blumpy will see it as a positive that 14 months of insane price run-up with no true economy underpinning it. Immigration (even illegal) has been our path to cheap labor and new debtorship that keep capitalism churning. Poltically we are toast on these issues. Can’t raise min wage and don’t want immigration policy reform except more cages or less cages, depending on your side. Our “American” banks could give a sh*t USA. We are the past, China is the future. They will take any nuggest they can get.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Instead, you ignored it, because I live there. You actually thought I was being biased. No, I was being sincere and honest about the north jersey market. No one listened. Wayne was so undervalued compared to other nice north jersey towns with great school systems it wasn’t even funny.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why pay up for Wyckoff in 2018/19 when you could get the same exact thing in Wayne for much much cheaper ?

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And did you see how little the taxes rose in Wayne? That house only had a $100 dollar increase in taxes from 2019-2020. The mayor has done a hell of a job holding Wayne’s taxes in check. This is what hurt wayne home prices back in 2010, but they have done such a hell of a job holding it in check over the past 10 years, that other towns have caught up. That’s another win for wayne home prices.

  28. Libturd says:

    Looks like they are living the dream. Their last mortgage in 2014 for 26 K1ev1t Road in Wayne was for 100K less. They sure move around a lot. In the less than 2 years they lived there, the house only appreciated 20K. I haven’t yet determined where they lived from 2017 to 2019 since there is mortgage on record. Maybe they rented?

    Look at 2021 for the assessment improvement, Wayniac.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    WTF? That thing looks like a jetway…..

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 3, 2021 at 8:12 am
    I’m not sure what that back extension is all about but overall, seems like the baths were redone:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/256-dorsa-ave-wayne-nj-07470–2006558612?mid=0#lil-mediaTab

  30. Libturd says:

    And the drop ceiling in the living room?

  31. Libturd says:

    Unlike the Great Blumpkin, I don’t lie.

  32. Juice Box says:

    I thought the Feds bought up most of those Wayne homes in that flood zone of the pompton river. I had a friend living there over 20 years ago they had to be rescued by boat the water rose to the 2nd floor too…

  33. Libturd says:

    Grim,

    You are correct about vaccine diplomacy. Costa Rica just secured a sh1tload of vaccine through China though our secretary of state was their a couple days ago telling them not to give away their dignity. I suppose those 80 million extra American doses are not going very far.

  34. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The minute someone mentions Russia as a boogeyman I know that person is a full on fake news libtard.

    China steals are tech, blackmails our politicians, corrupts our media and academia, and probably unleashed a bio weapon that killed 600k Americans.

    Brainwashed imbeciles biggest concerns are Putin’s repudiation of the progressive world view. Nary a word about China global ambition.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NO WAY…not happening. America still the top dog and will continue to be.

    This is like taking the position that USSR was going to run the world in the 1960’s…

    “We are the past, China is the future.”

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Because.. Wyckoff! 650K, all original, no upgrades:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wyckoff/5-burma-rd-wyckoff-nj-07481–2006580116

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They did…but there are sporadic holdouts.

    Juice Box says:
    June 3, 2021 at 10:45 am
    I thought the Feds bought up most of those Wayne homes in that flood zone of the pompton river. I had a friend living there over 20 years ago they had to be rescued by boat the water rose to the 2nd floor too…

  38. 3b says:

    America is not the top dog, we have been in decline for years, and it is accelerating. Look at who we elect as our leaders on both sides; that says it all!

  39. 3b says:

    Fast: Wyckoff is a nice town. And it cannot be compared to Wayne, even if Wayne is comparable. It’s like Paramus vs Wyckoff, it does not have the prestige associated with it, right or wrong.

  40. JCer says:

    lib, I don’t know why any of these places are taking the Chinese vaccine, it quite likely does not work. Just look at the results in Chile, Seychelles, etc. The Sinovac vaccine from china doesn’t seem to be working, they still have high infection rates, I’ve heard the real efficacy of that vaccine is sub 50%.

  41. Ez says:

    America is in decline partly, I believe, because of the breakdown of the family and the failure of the schools. First these broken families are raising a whole generation of nihilists. Secondly, by watering down education and delivering for only those who are easily persuaded we also have a lot of intellectual weaklings. No values and no real ability to reason. Sounds promising.

  42. 3b says:

    Ez: Well said.

  43. JCer says:

    Pumps if you were the oracle you claim to be you’d have bought in Essex where lib lives. The market is insane here.

    Look at this gem, bought 5 years ago for 865k, just sold for 1.2m 150k over asking. No change in the assessment so I’m assuming they didn’t do any work. that’s like 39% in 5 years and I’d say they paid top dollar when they bought it in the first place.

    https://www.longandfoster.com/homes-for-sale/25-De-Hart-Rd-Maplewood-Twp-NJ-07040-313137448

    or this 390k in 2014 now 725k

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/162-Parker-Ave-Maplewood-NJ-07040/52636049_zpid/

  44. 3b says:

    Jcer: Those numbers are staggering! The Fed creates another disaster!!

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s like Paramus vs Wyckoff, it does not have the prestige associated with it, right or wrong.

    I’m all to aware. Haughty white privilege has a price.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Therefore, Truman concluded, the best use of America’s extraordinary advantage was to rebuild European and Asian economies as quickly as possible, even though that would mean shrinking the U.S. share of global output. The Marshall Plan, the World Bank and the framework of free trade all pointed in this direction. It is astonishing — yet true — that the vanquished powers, Germany and Japan, both grew to greater economic heights after their defeat than they had occupied at the peak of their imperialist expansions. This was a new, and altogether enlightened, view of the spoils of victory.

    U.S. leadership since D-Day has been a great vindication of the rising tide that lifts all boats. Today, the United States has a smaller slice (about one-quarter) — but of a much, much, much larger pie. U.S. gross domestic product was about $250 billion per year at the end of World War II; today, it is more than $21 trillion. Adjusted for inflation, that’s a sevenfold increase.

    And yet, for many Americans this economic miracle feels like a tale of decline. Only the aged remember D-Day. But most of us have some sense, whether directly or from popular culture, of America’s place in the post-D-Day world, when everything worth making (so it seemed) was Made in the USA. Nostalgia for that lost era has suffused our politics since the 1970s. The growth of German steel and toolmakers, of Japanese and South Korean automobile- and electronics-makers, of Chinese makers of low-cost goods have all been touted as evidence that the United States has lost its economic edge.

    After 75 years, the gap between the muscular economic reality and America’s wan self-image is enormous. The United States continues to be the world’s biggest economy by far — larger than China and Japan (No. 2 and No. 3 on the list) combined. Deloitte has forecast that the United States will replace China at the top of the Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index by next year. Since 2003, the United States has added some $3 trillion more to its economy than the European Union has managed.

    Yet, from the White House to the corner bar, we hear that the United States is losing ground. The idea of decline dominates policymaking and the president’s tweets. In truth, the United States has raised the world closer to its own heights, to the benefit of billions. And it started on D-Day.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 11:19 am
    America is not the top dog, we have been in decline for years, and it is accelerating. Look at who we elect as our leaders on both sides; that says it all

  47. libturd says:

    JCER,

    Bought in 2011 for 430K (I know, crazy deal). Our backyard last flooded in 2013 (Sandy), but the taxman doesn’t know that, saving us at least 5K a year in taxes. We put in about 60K in improvements. So call it 490K. Our house would probably sell for 825K today. But we are an outlier. We found a place for 100K less than it should have gone for in the first place. The tax break was nothing but luck. Though, what really mattered was timing. We bought at the absolute bottom in October of 2011. People buying today are going to get taint punched like we did on our multi. 2005 to 2021 with virtually no appreciation in an incredibly desirable location.

    It’s all about market timing.

  48. Ez says:

    Morris Co. is a better deal than Essex Co. tax-wise.
    But it really all depends on how “quickly” and frequently you want to access NYC.
    In the early 2000s it was an hour fifteen minutes each way.

  49. Ez says:

    You killed it Lib. We’re up from $750k 4 years ago to the high eights even nines. Houses have been selling in days. We’re stuck though. The ride raised all the ship.

  50. Ez says:

    rise=tide

    Same thing

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    To someone from NYC, they don’t know about that and prob don’t care. They are looking for good value on the product, which wayne gives.

    Look at Paramus. Changing before your eyes. They will do the same thing to wayne.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 11:22 am
    Fast: Wyckoff is a nice town. And it cannot be compared to Wayne, even if Wayne is comparable. It’s like Paramus vs Wyckoff, it does not have the prestige associated with it, right or wrong.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I said a value. The only thing in essex county that was a value to new buyers was fairfield. And I did say fairfield and wayne were the best values in north jersey in 2018/19. This was regular buyers last chance to get in the market in nice towns. Talking could have bought a home easily in the 400-600k range those years in fairfield and wayne.

    Million dollar home market is way different in essex county.

    JCer says:
    June 3, 2021 at 11:36 am
    Pumps if you were the oracle you claim to be you’d have bought in Essex where lib lives. The market is insane here.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Every investment is about timing. Just remember, when you were buying in 2011, people were laughing at you. It was not a good time to buy the crowd yelled in 2011.

    That’s why it’s a good time to start dollar cost avging into ark funds right now.

    And stop hating on real estate because you had one bad investment that you still made money on with your rental. God forbid every investment doesn’t go to the moon.

    libturd says:
    June 3, 2021 at 12:05 pm
    JCER,

    Bought in 2011 for 430K (I know, crazy deal). Our backyard last flooded in 2013 (Sandy), but the taxman doesn’t know that, saving us at least 5K a year in taxes. We put in about 60K in improvements. So call it 490K. Our house would probably sell for 825K today. But we are an outlier. We found a place for 100K less than it should have gone for in the first place. The tax break was nothing but luck. Though, what really mattered was timing. We bought at the absolute bottom in October of 2011. People buying today are going to get taint punched like we did on our multi. 2005 to 2021 with virtually no appreciation in an incredibly desirable location.

    It’s all about market timing.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You bought almost peak market in 2004 and didn’t lose any money. You collected rent, right? So you made a ton of money still buying at the worse time possible. That’s how powerful real estate is long term.

  55. 3b says:

    Pumps: People from NYC no more than you think. Many have friends and or family here. And if you drive around Wyckoff vs Wayne, you can see the difference, not to mention all the other towns surrounding Wyckoff vs Wayne. That said I would right now I would take Wayne over Paramus purely for aesthetic reasons. I am very surprised you would want to see Wayne mirror Paramus.

  56. 3b says:

    Libturd: I feel bad for all these folks paying these prices! Thanks Fed and Boomers!!

  57. 3b says:

    Should have said know, not no.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, an article that gets it. I said this for how long on this blog?!

    “The 2021 housing craze feels as sudden and shocking as the pandemic, but it was decades in the making. The emergence of the huge Millennial generation in the 1980s made strong housing demand in the early 2020s entirely predictable. The Great Recession’s clobbering of the construction industry made today’s housing shortage equally foreseeable. Indeed, McBride, the economics writer, saw all this coming from a mile away. So, I asked him, what does he see happening next—a rise, a crash, or a plateau?
    “It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future,” he said. “In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while, because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while, because inventory is so low.””

    https://apple.news/AJp_c-pXzRS6lVe9vMZhtoQ

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “So what exactly is happening? The short answer is: supply and demand. The longer answer is also supply and demand.

    On the demand side, demographics are the big, invisible engine driving the machine. Millennials are the largest generation in American history. Having been too financially constrained to buy houses at a normal rate in the previous decade, many of them are now storming into the housing market. Some might feel a desperate need to escape their current apartment, basement, or home after the coronavirus pandemic closed much of the world for more than a year and led to an outbreak of mind-numbing cabin fever. To make things even wilder, homebuyers are flush with cash after a year in which the national savings rate soared to its highest level in decades. On top of all that, interest rates, having basically declined for most of the past 40 years, recently touched new lows, luring more buyers into the market and encouraging higher bids.”

  60. 3b says:

    Why you should wait out the housing market is the title of the article.

  61. JCer says:

    Pumps you are so deluded, NYC buyers don’t even know Wayne exists. They know only a handful of places in NJ, they know Hoboken/Jersey City,Short Hills, Ridgewood, Montclair, and Maplewood, if it’s not repeatedly discussed in the Times real estate section it doesn’t exist. They only learn about these other areas when they start looking and you are missing a key element in Wayne and that is the train. The buyers in Wayne are those that are being pushed out, that’s the spillover, they are the buyers pushed out of Wyckoff, Ridgewood, etc. NYC buyers are pretty easy to spot, they are willing to pay way over ask, they want turn key and the average house budget is ~1m, they prefer to be walking distance to the train station, they usually don’t want an overly large house(they basically want lib’s house but redone from top to bottom so it looks brand new and instead of 825 they’ll pay 1.2m for it).

    I bought in 2016 and houses that were 800k that we looked at have turned over again for over 1m, even stuff that went for 700-800 in 17,18,19 is up 15-20%. A bigger issue than even the house price is the property taxes, relatively small homes have 20k property tax bills which is insane. Wayne has a property tax problem compared to Wyckoff, Wayne is almost 3% of current value where Wyckoff is less than 2%. Your taxes in Wayne are almost as bad as Essex County, that is why prices were depressed. Inventory is tight and people seem to have thrown that concern out the window.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, can’t fix stupid. The article gets the reason why correct…supply and demand from an enormous buying bloc. They then think this will be better next year. Lost in the woods.

    Say it with me…this buying bloc is only getting bigger as the decade progresses. Dream on if you think prices will be dropping next year. You have to wait till the end of the decade for a chance at that, and that’s like a lifetime. So if you need a house for this decade, you better start buying now, it’s not going to get better.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 1:36 pm
    Why you should wait out the housing market is the title of the article.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You think what you want. They don’t know that most of north jersey exists until they start looking at the market. When they start seeing the market, and what they can get in Wayne compared to Ridgewood, a lot of them act on it. It’s only human…

    Myself included, I want nothing to do with Ridgewood types. I would feel uncomfortable raising my daughter in Ridgewood. All the judging and class bs…save it. Wayne is awesome. Mostly down to earth people who just want to raise their family in a safe town, still close to everything, with a great school system.

    JCer says:
    June 3, 2021 at 1:38 pm
    Pumps you are so deluded, NYC buyers don’t even know Wayne exists.

  64. JCer says:

    pumps how many millennials are moving in in your neighborhood? Seriously asking, the millennial segment in NJ is pretty weak economically speaking. Even those with “good” jobs are dealing with the BS bystander is experiencing salaries are flat, expenses are high, where is all of this money coming from? If this is your buying block they totally depend on financing and thus are highly rate dependent. I have friends who are older millennials with nice incomes(software developers individual incomes anywhere from 200-300k) and the common trend especially with Covid was moving out and not to NJ but away from NYC to America where they could buy more with their money.

    It’s a function of income and I don’t see the jobs to support housing at this level plus if rates even return to 5% the affordability get bad quickly.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ridgewood is absolutely beautiful, but you have to know where you are. And that’s not for me…maybe if I was worth millions.

    I don’t want to be the guy trying to fit in where I don’t belong. I also don’t want that for my daughter. Developing a complex, where she thinks she is poor because her dad isn’t worth 10 million dollars. Meanwhile, she is better off than most in the nj population, but because I decided to raise her in Ridgewood, she doesn’t realize that.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    We are not going to 5% rates….no way, no how. You have to realize this. It’s a different financial world out there that is more scared of deflation than inflation.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    I don’t know where people get money, but I just know they have it. These prices are easily supported.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer, in my immediate neighborhood. Every single house was bought by a millennial. Thing is, almost no turnover in my neighborhood. Look on zillow, most are original owners. A house just went up last week for 699k. Supposedly, two little girls are moving in. Every house that was sold and bought again, has kids.

    So when I first moved here 10 years ago, those little kids are now in college. It’s interesting to watch a neighborhood change over time.

  69. 3b says:

    Did you read the title of the article?

  70. 3b says:

    Jcer: I see some of these millennials in my neighborhood, assuming they are millennials, then they are on the older side, as in 40 and over. I don’t know if there is a segment of the population between older millennial and younger Generation X, but they all look older to me. Also a lot is first generation immigrants with parents moving in as well, again they don’t look like younger millennials, and I don’t see any twenty somethings buying houses. As for buyers being more qualified, perhaps they are, but my wife says still a lot of deals getting done with 5 to 10 percent down payments. As for 5 percent rates , we need to get there. Pumps does not understand that if we don’t, we will even bigger problems.

  71. JCer says:

    If you don’t think the rates play a part you’re nuts. There are 2 things enabling the market to behave as it is, rates and the inflated stock market. Just locking in some gains I was able to pay off my mortgage anyone who had a good chunk of money in the market for the last 5-7 years was easily able to triple their money. The money supply is just pulsing through the economy putting capital in strange places. This will not end well, this textbook irrational exuberance, who knows how long it lasts but the behavior pattern looks similar to what happened post WWI with the roaring 20’s except the economic situation in the US is much more precarious today. How long until former bitcoin millionaires start jumping off buildings?

  72. 3b says:

    Jcer: Agree. Pumps also does not understand the longer this goes on, the worse it will be when it falls apart. He hates WFH, but ironically he does not see the bigger picture with corporate America being geographically agnostic as to where in the USA or elsewhere a position might be filled. Sure, the rest of the country is going through the housing madness but the coasts are the worst. Companies can hire for positions all over the country and get well educated candidates, they don’t have to pay more because the northeast is so expensive and has insane property taxes. WFH, geographically agnostic hiring practices, and yet the northeast still commands a premium? I don’t see it.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    If you raise rates, you incentivize the money class to keep their money in non risk positions. The FED does not want that. There’s too much money already on the sidelines, and you want to let these people continue to contribute to deflation?

    The only reason to raise rates to 5% is if we are facing massive inflation. It’s never going to happen in an environment where population growth is falling and innovative tech disruption is causing deflation. That’s the reality over the next 10-20 years. Massiving deflationary tech disruption combined with falling population growth rates. Why do you think China is trying to get their country to have more kids now?

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If someone is buying a house in their 20’s, they sure as hell are not doing it in the high cost of living markets. Who do you think is moving to low cost locations?

    The people in their 20’s growing their career in NYC metro are renting. They won’t be buying till they are further in their career making more money, hence 30s or 40s.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 2:37 pm
    Jcer: I see some of these millennials in my neighborhood, assuming they are millennials, then they are on the older side, as in 40 and over. I don’t know if there is a segment of the population between older millennial and younger Generation X, but they all look older to me. Also a lot is first generation immigrants with parents moving in as well, again they don’t look like younger millennials, and I don’t see any twenty somethings buying houses. As for buyers being more qualified, perhaps they are, but my wife says still a lot of deals getting done with 5 to 10 percent down payments. As for 5 percent rates , we need to get there. Pumps does not understand that if we don’t, we will even bigger problems.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For the millionth time. The most competitive and highly skilled individuals are attracted to high cost locations. For them, it’s paradise.

    The people who can’t cut it in this market, move to places like Texas, Arizona, or Tenn. Not everyone can handle the competitive markets. Nothing wrong with that. They go to places where their lower paying job can provide a better living.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 2:55 pm
    Jcer: Agree. Pumps also does not understand the longer this goes on, the worse it will be when it falls apart. He hates WFH, but ironically he does not see the bigger picture with corporate America being geographically agnostic as to where in the USA or elsewhere a position might be filled. Sure, the rest of the country is going through the housing madness but the coasts are the worst. Companies can hire for positions all over the country and get well educated candidates, they don’t have to pay more because the northeast is so expensive and has insane property taxes. WFH, geographically agnostic hiring practices, and yet the northeast still commands a premium? I don’t see it.

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    Why do you think China is trying to get their country to have more kids now?

    How ironic. The commun1st regime punished those who had more than one child and now they relaxed the rule because there are too many men, too many old people and not enough youngsters. Now they’ll punish you if you don’t f.uck more. I may have to move to China. LOL.

  77. InversePumpkin says:

    Only the ones who can’t compete move to Texas. That’s why I love Cathie’s bear case prediction of Tesla to $3000 after he moved to Texas. It would have been $6000 had he stayed in California.

  78. chicagofinance says:

    Kewl…. but did you see the new chicken sandwich at McDonald’s?

    Ez says:
    June 3, 2021 at 11:26 am
    America is in decline partly, I believe, because of the breakdown of the family and the failure of the schools. First these broken families are raising a whole generation of nihilists. Secondly, by watering down education and delivering for only those who are easily persuaded we also have a lot of intellectual weaklings. No values and no real ability to reason. Sounds promising.

  79. Bystander says:

    Can’t you guys see his genius? No inflation..oh wait, only 20% in housing in one year. But fundamentals sparked that. But we will be in deflationary tech environment causing all costs to go lower but salaries to support housing will go up..I don’t know how, I just know it will.

    Frank Drebbin – economist.

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, there are anomalies, but you are usually not going to find massive amount of workers at the top of their game in Texas. In NYC, this is the case. I’m not saying there aren’t people at the top of their craft in Texas, I’m just saying that they are far few between. Businesses know this. That’s why they move what they can to Texas, but not everything. The jobs that don’t require the best of the best move from Nyc to places like Texas or Utah.

    Why do you think Facebook and other techies are all moving into NYC. My wife just got a tour of the Facebook office in NYC and it’s sick.

  81. Libturd says:

    Had lunch with a print vendor today. They have a staffing shortage. They are paying signing bonuses for pressmen. Talk about dislocations.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well it’s better than taking your position. Wages can’t support current pricing (said in 2017), yet here we are my friend. You were wrong and I was right.

    Bystander says:
    June 3, 2021 at 3:10 pm
    Can’t you guys see his genius? No inflation..oh wait, only 20% in housing in one year. But fundamentals sparked that. But we will be in deflationary tech environment causing all costs to go lower but salaries to support housing will go up..I don’t know how, I just know it will.

    Frank Drebbin – economist.

  83. Bystander says:

    Time to rewatch Electric Dream ‘Autofac’ again. Blumpy’s dream come true. Technology innovation and corp consolidation leading to a great deflationary society where consumers enjoy their cheap goods shipped to them. Oh wait..

  84. 3b says:

    For them it’s paradise!! What a laugh!!

  85. Bystander says:

    Wages are not supporting it, dope. Debt is. Take the stimilus and support away and see what happens..but that is what you really mean when saying you were right. Uncle Fed to rescue, just like Granny. Did you ever give her proper cut of appreciation? You pretty much screwed her.

    Mortgage balances climbed $182 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to $10.04 trillion, according to the latest data from the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1 Housing debt now totals $10.39 trillion, further eclipsing the $9.99 trillion peak we saw in the third quarter of 2008. “Newly originated mortgages, which include refinances, reached a record high of $1.2 trillion, surpassing in nominal terms the volumes seen during the historic refinance boom in the third quarter of 2003,” the New York Fed reported.

  86. BRT says:

    My coworker barely qualified for $450k loan 4 years ago. He sells his home for $100k profit and buys back in the market immediately at $750k. Yeah ok….his wages might have increased $4k a year in that time. This doesn’t end well. Just a little cost of living inflation will wipe out a lot of these people buying in at sky high prices.

  87. Bystander says:

    Exluding you Blumpy, this blog is full of bright, hard-working people who have vast knowledge across multiple industries. You talk about all these wealthy people everywhere in NJ yet you personally did not come close to buying 1m for house..nor did most people here. Most people here are absolutely floored, insulted and downright scared of what is happening right now in real estate, even if they are profitting. You are the outlier who feels it is just fine. How do you bring those bookends together?

  88. 3b says:

    Bystander: Well said.

  89. Anon says:

    For the record, I’m guessing Pumpkin’s NYC area employer doesn’t demand the “best of the best” and that most teachers in places like Austin, Nashville, and Salt Lake City could dance circles around him.

    Also for the record, I wish he would take up a new hobby. Like injecting fentanyl.

  90. JCer says:

    Bystander that is because most of us understand this is a symptom of things being awry. Most of us are relatively successful people with nice incomes and when we look at what our homes would trade for today realize we would be hard pressed to afford them at our current income levels and the current prices. Housing is an economic dead zone not an economic multiplier, putting dollars into housing does not generally grow economic output. I’m probably up 500k on my house, you heard lib throw out 325k, other similarly are sitting on unrealized gains but what is happening simply does not look like a healthy economy. That is far more important that paper gains on my primary residence, if the bottom of the economy falls out we will all feel it. I’m not even convinced it is limited to real estate as equities markets are scary high as well. I want to see stability over volatility.

  91. 3b says:

    Jcer: That is the sad part, Pumps thinks this is wonderful, but we will all pay for this madness when it ends, including him.

  92. 3b says:

    Powell said recently might be time to consider talking about tapering, his boy Williams says now is not the time. Very foolish looking Fed!!

  93. JCer says:

    3b, on paper between equities and real estate I’m up almost 2 million since the covid madness started and I don’t actively trade and own mostly stable ETF’s and a few individual stocks, but my income was down over 90k last year(at least 15%-20%). It’s a strange dichotomy that on paper I’m much richer but in reality I feel poorer because all my cash flow is down pretty much across the board(everything from earned income to passive investments). Right now it’s only good if you are a seller and then if you are I don’t know what you do with the money, invest in other inflated assets or hold cash which could be inflated away, not a lot of value opportunities and a lot of uncertainty.

  94. JCer says:

    Bystander, it’s amazing Philip K Dick knew about Amazon in 1955!

  95. 3b says:

    Jcer: Nothing to do accept just sit back and watch it, no planing no strategizing, just do nothing and watch it all continue to expand until it blows!

  96. LurksMcGee says:

    @4:23

    While I agree with you, the problem is that the party never ends as long as you go back to more debt. More debt has been propping up prices for almost 20 years. So in essence, Pumpkin is right but for the wrong reasons.

    I also don’t see 5% happening anytime soon unless there’s a global war or some catastrophe (a real one, not like the pause button that Covid created).

    At some point, all the points being made against pumpkin would have been made 2004-2008 and then the economy juices some debt and here we are again. This is a cyclical party where we’ll be talking “double dollars” in the 2100’s. Can’t reset this thing if you tried.

    Although an extra colony on a planet might stave things off lol

  97. 3b says:

    Lurks It’s worse this time, that’s what is scary about it. I just don’t see how it continues on like this.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are incomes coming down in the data? Plus, places like nyc metro area, a ton of money is being made untaxed that’s not reported in the income data for this location.

    I’m not cheering anything on, I’m just acknowledging the reality of the market.

    If current market prices are not supported, how are they buying? Lending is tight. They are not giving it to anyone that can’t afford it. On top of that, people are paying cash.

    Jcer, you might be making less, and feeling poorer, but most are not. Most consumers saved a ton of money the past year and a half. So much so that they paid off credit card debt.

    Understand the bifurcation of our economy. A good portion of the economy is absolutely killing it. No way you could have these housing prices if that was not the case.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lurks I do get it. How do you think I made these calls?

    It’s a cyclical party. They will never let it reset because that means deflation. How does one pay debts back in a deflationary environment? You don’t, the system goes into a death spiral destroying everything. There is nothing to save, and must start from square one. What that means? Money isn’t power anymore, and human nature goes to work destroying whatever is left of society with barbarism.

    I repeat, the fed will never ever let this happen. Thank you to the FED for seeing the big picture. Stability is all that matters in the economy.

  100. 3b says:

    Pumps: Understand this the housing market is where it is because of the Fed. Period.

  101. 3b says:

    Pumps so much for not cheering it on, what with you thanking the Fed.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For all the crying about the FED, have the assets that matter to the economy gone down?

    3b thinks cheaper housing is a god send for the economy. Nope, that means it is f’ed. If you start having housing dropping by 50%, do you realize the impact on the rest of the economy? It means it is all over if the prices are dropping like that.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are heroes in my eyes. They saved us from so much misery. The fed is so much smarter today. They realized those major bust cycles like “The Great Depression” didn’t need to happen.

    3b, based on how the FED works today, is it possible to have a depression like that again? That was needless suffering, but we didn’t understand the economy enough back then. Now we do.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 5:32 pm
    Pumps: Understand this the housing market is where it is because of the Fed. Period.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People making money out there…

    How many of these former restaurant workers made enough money to not have to go back to work so quickly? No one talks about that.

    “Suddenly Wealthy From Markets, Some Millennials Are Stressed
    After Nasdaq and bitcoin rallies, young investors weigh options for what to do with their money”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/suddenly-wealthy-from-markets-some-millennials-are-stressed

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We all know stories of someone that turned nothing into something in the past year.

  106. 3b says:

    Pumps: No one ever said 50 percent drop in prices, although depending how bad it gets it certainly can’t be ruled out completely. And if the Feds actions are what you deem to be smart, than God help us all.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You even had Lib’s kid wanting to make money. He blocked him from his winning “Doge” play. So just think about that. How many gamers took their 1,000 and made money. Jumping in and out of successful street momentum plays.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, finally some people are getting it.

    “Why one real-estate investor is ditching his Florida properties

    -He plans to offload at least half of his 12 Florida properties due to the risk of climate change.
​

    -Neman will even sell his own Miami beachfront condo and try to lease it back from the new owner.”

    https://apple.news/A7s_yDUFtRFyf9OpoUsIZAw

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Federal Reserve System was established in 1913. It is the central bank of the United States. The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. Monetary policy involves decisions the Fed makes to affect our nation’s supply of money and credit in order to achieve goals for the economy, such as full employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed writes regulations and supervises banks to ensure that the banking system is safe, sound and able to respond to a financial crisis. The Fed manages the payments system; that is, the Fed offers financial services to banks and the U.S. government to foster competition, innovation and efficiency in the marketplace.

    Although the Federal Reserve System was in place during the Great Depression and did conduct monetary policy, it was not able to achieve its goals of full employment and stable prices. Therefore, economists at the Fed — as well as university professors of economics and business economists — have analyzed the Fed’s response to the Great Depression and continue to examine and debate this topic.

    As we talk about the Fed during the Great Depression, one thing to keep in mind is that the Fed was created by Congress in 1913. When the stock market crash occurred in 1929, the Fed was 16 years old — a teenage institution. And, like teenagers, the Fed lacked experience. Institutions, like people, change over time — in part because of the lessons they learn. Thus, the Fed’s role in stabilizing the economy, the Fed’s operating procedures and its understanding of monetary policy have evolved from 1913 to the present.

    Think of the Fed as a medical doctor performing surgery on the economy. Do surgeons know more today that enables them to perform complicated surgeries than they did in 1913? Imagine a medical doctor in 1929 doing open-heart surgery. You’d have to use your imagination, because open-heart surgeries and heart transplants were not done in 1929. Similarly, the way in which the Fed conducts monetary policy today is much more effective than in 1929.

    Economic understanding in the 1920s included a belief in a balanced budget for the U.S. government that limited fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is government spending and taxing to influence the economy. A balanced budget would prevent the government from adding excess spending to stimulate a sluggish economy.

    Economic understanding at that time also included a belief that inflation was bad for the economy, which had the effect of focusing the actions of the Federal Reserve on preventing inflation. Inflation was understood to include asset prices, as well as prices of goods and services, but concerns about deflation were taken much less seriously. Economic understanding of the day stressed the benefits of a monetary system based on the gold standard.

    In addition, a laissez-faire mentality existed which meant that the government and fiscal policy and, by extension, monetary policy were not proactive in stabilizing the economy because it was generally believed that the market economy should stabilize itself over time.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You all ignore this in your hate for the FED. Like I said, they are heroes in my eyes. They saved my 30’s from being a decade of living hell. If they didn’t save the economy in 2008 from total bust, where would we be right now? Who knows if society as we know it would even still exist after a crash like that.

    “Since the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve System has learned how to more effectively stabilize the economy. Although the Fed’s record is not perfect, generally its monetary policy has resulted in moderating economic conditions so that the United States has not experienced another economic event as catastrophic as the Great Depression.”

  111. BRT says:

    If you don’t think mindless groupthink exists in science, just look at how they reacted to former CDC chief Robert Redfield when he stated his opinion that this was not of natural origin just a few weeks ago. I’ve been talking about it for years.

  112. Fabius Maximus says:

    Wayne vs Paramus is an easy choice.
    Paramus is a lot easier to get around and as people said, it doesn’t flood. Wyckoff as well is an easy choice. Lots of nice housing stock and no “bad section” of town. While Rt17 may be a mess 6 days a week. the 40MPH streets either side of it make driving doable.

    The Hockey parents can confirm, getting to the Ice Vault is a complete pain.

  113. 3b says:

    Pumps: We would have had a few tough years and come out stronger if we did what needed to be done.

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If Wayne was in Bergen county, people like you would love it. I’m not saying you are wrong, but labels carry weight to a lot of people.

    Wayne is predominately white, safe, beautiful, and has great schools. The only thing separating it from Wyckoff is the county label that attracts people like you.

    Wayne blows Paramus out of the water…but like you said, its location is gold. It’s right in the middle of everything.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    June 3, 2021 at 8:09 pm
    Wayne vs Paramus is an easy choice.
    Paramus is a lot easier to get around and as people said, it doesn’t flood. Wyckoff as well is an easy choice. Lots of nice housing stock and no “bad section” of town. While Rt17 may be a mess 6 days a week. the 40MPH streets either side of it make driving doable.

    The Hockey parents can confirm, getting to the Ice Vault is a complete pain.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They do what they do to avoid another depression. I don’t know why people don’t realize this in their hate for the FED. It’s crazy.

    3b says:
    June 3, 2021 at 8:11 pm
    Pumps: We would have had a few tough years and come out stronger if we did what needed to be done

  116. Brt says:

    Because you don’t thank an arsonist for putting out a fire

  117. 3b says:

    Pumps: The Fed , depressions, you really don’t have a clue.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like billy said, “We didn’t start the fire, it was always burning.”

    The fed is made up of people forced into a position where the world relies on their said decisions. Can’t even begin to grasp the position they are put into. The pressure..

  119. JCer says:

    Pumps, as stated Paramus is bergen county and has very low taxes also it is a little closer to drive to GWB/Lincoln tunnel plus has better highway access throughout, if Wayne property taxes were lower house prices would be higher, there is a direct relationship. As someone pointed out Wyckoff is economically homogenous where Wayne is all over the map, people in this area pay to be insulated from economic diversity.

    Pumps I’m still making a lot of money(and our spending is WAY down) but when income is down and career prospects are no longer as bright its harder to be optimistic and a good majority of the people we know are seeing the same. Employers clamping down on spend, fewer opportunities and more cost cutting, salaries stagnant or down and costs up. Remote work has only made it worse as they are shopping positions across markets, a remote worker in Tampa is way cheaper than someone in NYC let alone if they move the job to Bangalore or Belarus. What we are seeing with reduced spending is very temporary, weekends out, sporting events, concerts, vacations, dining out, trips to the bar are all coming back, I don’t think anyone is in a hurry to continue living the way we did the past year. I’ve long said that the spending on house renovations and housing reflects that money is being spent on nothing else once trips to Grand Cayman and diners at Nobu return I suspect those expenses will be revert to usual. Also with record low interest rates I’m sure people are borrowing to fund some of the ridiculous renovations.

    I still think companies are holding back on spend because they think the other shoe will drop once the stimulus ends. I too have been operating based on that assumption, taking a defensive position, paying off the mortgage, hoarding a bit of cash, trimming expenses. Those who are “killing” it are doing so based on a lie, based on stimulus money pulsing through the economy and will be crushed when the life support is taken away. This economy is like a guy on ventilator signing up for a marathon because he is “breathing well”.

  120. Bystander says:

    FYI to all

    Amazon customers have one week to opt out of a plan that would turn every Echo speaker and Ring security camera in the US into a shared wireless network, as part of the company’s plan to fix connection problems for its smart home devices.

    The proposal, called Amazon Sidewalk, involves the company’s devices being used as a springboard to build city-wide “mesh networks” that help simplify the process of setting up new devices, keep them online even if they’re out of range of home wifi, and extend the range of tracking devices such as those made by Tile.

    But the company’s plans have caused alarm among observers. Ashkan Soltani, a former chief technology officer of the US Federal Trade Commission, told the tech site Ars Technica: “In addition to capturing everyone’s shopping habits (from amazon.com) and their internet activity (as AWS is one of the most dominant web hosting services) … now they are also effectively becoming a global ISP with a flick of a switch, all without even having to lay a single foot of fiber”. The feature may also break the terms and conditions of users’ internet connections, which do not allow such resharing, warned Lydia Leong, an analyst at Gartner.

    Users can disable Sidewalk in the settings section of the Alexa or Ring apps, but have until 8 June to do so. After that, if they have taken no action, the network will be turned on and their devices will become “Sidewalk Bridges”.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fair enough assessment.

    That’s why I hate remote work, if it takes off, America is f/ed. The minute the economy hits a recession, some company is going to decide to take the low hanging fruit, and start using foreign remote workers to save money. The competition is going to have to follow, and you have the same impact Ross Perot said with offshoring of manufacturing.

    The only way to stop this…politicians that care about Americans. They have to put laws in place (like tariffs) if a company decides to use foreign labor over Americans. You think China gives their jobs to foreigners? I don’t know why we do. Does that make China better than us? That they protect their workforce?

    JCer says:
    June 3, 2021 at 9:20 pm

  122. Juice Box says:

    Directions to disable Amazon Sidewalk on your accounts, both Alexa and Ring Apps.

    USING THE ALEXA APP
    In your Amazon Alexa app, select the “More” icon at the lower right hand corner of the screen
    Go to “Settings” > “Account Setting” > “Amazon Sidewalk.” (Just a note: if you’re not connected to any Echo or Ring devices, you will probably not see this option.)
    Use the toggle to disable Sidewalk

    USING THE RING APP
    In your Ring app, go into your Control Center by tapping the the three-lined icon in the upper left-hand corner of the screen
    Select “Sidewalk” and use the slide button to opt out
    You’ll be ask to confirm your opt-out. You can opt back in the same way.

  123. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Us computer geeks have been screaming about offshoring work and importing millions of workers on visas for decades. Only when they come for the lawyers jobs will it make it into any legislation.

    Honestly though some of the best workers have been those very folks. Not all but there are some shining stars in an ocean of mediocrity. Some are running the biggest US companies now whether it be c-suite or board of directors.

    he line it is drawn
    The curse it is cast
    The slow one now
    Will later be fast
    As the present now
    Will later be past
    The order is rapidly fadin’
    And the first one now
    Will later be last
    For the times they are a-changin’

  124. Fast Eddie says:

    559K on the jobs report. The muppets are slow to get back to work… scream for more s0c1alism!

  125. Juice Box says:

    re: “if it takes off”

    Pumps there have been 50 million people working from home for over a year now. The ridership data for NY Metro on mass transit has only improved a few points. We are a long way from 5 million subway rides a day in NYC. Yesterdays # for example was pretty decent.

    Subway Wednesday, 6/2/21 2,343,962 -59.3%
    NYC Buses Wednesday, 6/2/21 1,170,061 -49%
    LIRR Wednesday, 6/2/21 112,500 -61%
    Metro North Wednesday, 6/2/21 95,300 -68%

    I cannot find NJ Transit they hide the data, but their press releases say 75% down from pre-pandemic on Rail and about 50% on Bus.

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And if this is the norm, all it takes is one recession for these employers to go looking for something cheaper…the remote platform is a trojan horse. Don’t accept it.

    So many people think this won’t happen to them till it does…

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 8:47 am
    re: “if it takes off”

    Pumps there have been 50 million people working from home for over a year now. The ridership data for NY Metro on mass transit has only improved a few points. We are a long way from 5 million subway rides a day in NYC. Yesterdays # for example was pretty decent.

  127. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin Seed,

    How are you posting here from the classroom while instructing the kids?

  128. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know…maybe because they are working on their project right now. Well, at least the one’s still doing their work.

  129. Bystander says:

    Thanks Juice. Should have done that. Much easier.

    Blumpy,

    You are a real deep thinker on this. Yes, politicans should care about Americans but they care more that J@mie D1mon gets the freedom to dump roles wherever he sees fit. I am literally the only person on my US team, other than my boss who is not a visa, seeking GC. The rest of them take every item of BS that comes their way and say thank you then work weekends. I tell people to shove offmdon’t care. I wonder what freedom I have that they don’t. I don’t have to wonder why US companies like it that way.

  130. Juice Box says:

    “Change is the law of life and those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” – John F. Kennedy

    All public businesses are in some state of constant organizational restructuring that can be broken down into the following strategies.

    1. M & A
    2. Legal
    3. Financial
    4. Repositioning
    5. cost-cutting
    6. Turnaround
    8. Spin Off
    9. Divestment

    Business are also constantly changing strategies not every year but usually with changes in management. One year buy up companies and grow, next year it’s cost-cutting, the follow year it’s repositioning. All of these are harsh on workers.
    Covid-19 and remote working has actually given workers some power and freedom they did not have before. You are no longer regionally handicapped to who you can work for. The story I posted the other day about the Goldman Sachs worker with 5 children who moved away from the city and down the Jersey shore is the best example. She balked at going back to the office and took a job remotely with a California company instead. This is happening all over, and is being shared on social media and is in the press. Companies that go to heavy handed with back to the office are going to suffer, some may go critical and it will cost the senior management their jobs.

  131. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Not to be too hard on you but you work in an industry that has not changed much in a 100 years and is funded by the law of taxing the landowner, there is no profit, so there is no reason to change. Not to say it is not coming……

  132. Juice Box says:

    Here is the story again from Jan 1st on Bloomberg, one of many quoted, it’s behind the paywall so I clipped a bit for you folks.

    “For Sarah-Marie Martin, who lived in Manhattan and worked as a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. when the pandemic struck, the months at home gave her time to redraw the blueprint of her life.

    “When you have this existential experience, you have time to step back and think,” Martin said. “In my previous life, I didn’t have time to get super deep and philosophical.”

    The mother of five moved her family to the New Jersey shore. And once the push to get back to offices picked up, the idea of commuting hardly seemed alluring. This spring, Martin accepted a fully remote position as chief financial officer of Yumi, a Los Angeles-based maker of baby food.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-01/return-to-office-employees-are-quitting-instead-of-giving-up-work-from-home

  133. grim says:

    Pandemic job change is significant. Hell, I left a 20+ year position.

  134. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    Go to Indeed, type in Food services in job description and search within 25 miles. It is insane. There are over 3,300 jobs just in Fairfield County. I feel no sympathy for any of them. Much of shortage is in seasonal summer jobs that will disappear come fall. Half of the openings say “XX Country Club”, “XXX Private Club” “XXX Catering Events”..f*ck em all. Feeding rich fat f%cks is not an economy.

  135. Trick says:

    Switched jobs recently after working for the same company for 15 years. No raises for the last 4, no 401k match, no bonuses. New place is much smaller and privately owned, 10% increase in pay, 401k match, and yearly bonus. Had to commute in a few days a week to get used to the place. 50 miles each way, route 80 and 280 are now like the Autobahn post covid.

  136. Fast Eddie says:

    By,

    I understand, I get it. I have no issues with raising the minimum wage nor getting as much as one can per hour or overall. I agree that there’s a huge chasm between the haves and have nots. At the same time, one can’t sit at home forever. Ya gotta belly up to the bar and make an effort sooner or later.

  137. Juice Box says:

    The jersey Shore imports summer workers on H-2 visas.

    There is a job ad for Jenkinsons…. I gather they are short workers like everyone else, and are looking for high school kids they can pay less than minimum wage etc.

    https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=281f6072afa074d3&q=Summer&l=Point+Pleasant+Beach%2C+NJ&tk=1f7bjgsd9t4uf800&from=web&vjs=3

  138. BRT says:

    Jenks looks to be lacking workers. On Memorial day weekend, only half their rides were open. Back in the day, all the kids in Point Pleasant worked the boardwalk. But yes, they can easily afford to pay $15 an hour.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the same crap in education. You always have a new job every single year. New strategies and new philosophies. It never ends. Pointless yearly change for the sake of change.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 9:12 am
    Pumps – Not to be too hard on you but you work in an industry that has not changed much in a 100 years and is funded by the law of taxing the landowner, there is no profit, so there is no reason to change. Not to say it is not coming……

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The GDP keeps growing, but that’s not for you.

    Trick says:
    June 4, 2021 at 9:28 am
    Switched jobs recently after working for the same company for 15 years. No raises for the last 4, no 401k match, no bonuses. New place is much smaller and privately owned, 10% increase in pay, 401k match, and yearly bonus. Had to commute in a few days a week to get used to the place. 50 miles each way, route 80 and 280 are now like the Autobahn post covid.

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And how many positions like this are available? CFO that gets to stay home? Wtf…

    “The mother of five moved her family to the New Jersey shore. And once the push to get back to offices picked up, the idea of commuting hardly seemed alluring. This spring, Martin accepted a fully remote position as chief financial officer of Yumi, a Los Angeles-based maker of baby food.””

  142. Juice Box says:

    And Federal debt now stands at 127% of GDP.

  143. BRT says:

    It’s the same crap in education. You always have a new job every single year. New strategies and new philosophies. It never ends. Pointless yearly change for the sake of change.

    Grow a pair and stop paying attention to the admin.

  144. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sign me up for a CFO job that gets to stay home…. These are the same people telling low wage workers to get back to the restaurant so they can be served.

  145. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Or crying that their child should not have remote learning….but the CFO can stay home.

  146. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Plently.. C-Suite jobs are almost always Remote Eligible….

    Seach shows.

    Remote Eligible jobs within 100 miles of New York, NY (about 5,564 jobs).

    Regular jobs with Remote Eligible in the listing….for NYC many others aren’t listed as remote but that is just part of the negotiation.

    The power is now with the workers.

    “They feel like we’re not working if they can’t see us,” she said. “It’s a boomer power-play.”

  147. Juice Box says:

    BRT – I used to take my kids to Jenks all the time usually after the Bennies whet home Sunday nights etc, there were allot of Ukrainians at one point. Many years ago it was all Irish kids working there. This year they have to rely on local kids who would rather be on the x-box gaming?

    The teenagers around here don’t work unless parents force it. I don’t see many kids in the supermarkets either. There are huge amount of ads online for camp councilors too, jobs usually held by high school and college kids.

    Perhaps the Governor needs to write up a new executive order, as well it’s science and all. All kids from the age of 14 -18 have to work 20 hours a week…and get vaccinated to start school in September.

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How does one run a corporation from home? What a f/ed up world we are living in.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 9:52 am
    Pumps – Plently.. C-Suite jobs are almost always Remote Eligible….

    Seach shows.

  149. Juice Bxo says:

    Pumps – If you have been watching the CEOs etc for earnings or press releases on any news channel or social media these days, they all have airpods on and are talking to CNBC from their homes.

  150. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    It’s a joke that they are getting paid that much to WFH. Joke is on us. Blows my mind that you can get paid millions to somehow run a corporation from home. If you can run a corporation from home, why can’t I teach from home? Not that I want to, but just making a point.

    What a time to be alive. This is going to end badly…

  151. No One says:

    Pumpkin, BRT
    Serious question to both of you. How much more “woke” have schools become over the last 4 years? Are you seeing power struggles and changes to the curriculum as the red guard tries to take more control over your institutions?

    As a parent of a kid who graduated high school last year who is now a rising sophomore, I noticed that her fancy Princeton private day school has had a revolution in their management, promoting woke activists into positions of power. And I see my daughter’s University, which has typically had one of the more moderate/balanced stances, are also down on their hands and knees every day promoting and placating the woke agenda.

  152. Juice Box says:

    Pumps —- Shusshhh.. don’t tell Jamie Dimon

    His “chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management” is working from home still.

    CNBC this morning interview.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/06/04/gradual-job-growth-is-a-positive-for-the-economy-pro.html

  153. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one,

    Put it this way, I am going to have to start incorporating successful LGBT individuals into my curriculum. F the people pushing this crap.

  154. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – it’s a vicious, vicious cycle.

    If the kids are home permanently remote learning that means the parents cannot work in the office in NYC to pay the property taxes to pay your salary. That also calls into questioning the need for higher cost teachers. The school board could decide to outsource those jobs to cheaper teachers in say Montana who are just as capable but work for half the price from home.

  155. Phoenix says:

    GP,

    It’s not necessary for a CEO to be physically present. You can tell people what to do from a phone, computer, video service or walkie talkie.

    It’s not like they get their hands dirty.

  156. Phoenix says:

    JB
    it’s a vicious, vicious cycle.

    Sure it is. But it’s top down. And you are right, they can remote teachers from Montana.

    Is that better for your kids?

    Well, in all honesty, Boomers don’t really care about much other than themselves, so it doesn’t really matter anyway.

  157. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – re: “successful”

    That should be easy. You could easily cover Da Vinci for a month worth of classroom time.

    Reminds me of this old airplane joke.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxqjsyfbcd4

  158. Phoenix says:

    At least for me, and my child, we seem to have found at least one teacher per year that actually makes a difference.

    Personally I think remote is much worse than in person learning. Hybrid is doable.

    Not only that, but I’d wager 30 percent of careers are either totally unnecessary or are just there so lazy Americans don’t have to get off the couch. No wonder so many weigh over 20 stone.

  159. 3b says:

    Juice: Pumps doses not understand, before WFH it was going geographically agnostic as far as filling open positions. When we got back one or two days to the office in the Fall, my team will be in 4 different locations, when we need to meet it will be by Zoom. No different than Zoom from home.

  160. BRT says:

    Serious question to both of you. How much more “woke” have schools become over the last 4 years? Are you seeing power struggles and changes to the curriculum as the red guard tries to take more control over your institutions?

    As a parent of a kid who graduated high school last year who is now a rising sophomore, I noticed that her fancy Princeton private day school has had a revolution in their management, promoting woke activists into positions of power. And I see my daughter’s University, which has typically had one of the more moderate/balanced stances, are also down on their hands and knees every day promoting and placating the woke agenda.

    I used to say, not much, but I teach in high school and used to teach in a red town and that was my viewpoint 12 years ago. In elementary, it’s now full on indoctrination mode and they all go along with it. For the most part, in the high school, we just ignore whatever directives we are given unless the teacher ideologically agrees, and then they go along with it 1000% percent.

    During Jan 7th, my son’s 3rd grade teacher (picture AOC as your son’s teacher) went off on the protest to all of them on zoom. It was a disgusting rant. But what was worse was the right leaning parents were clearly sitting behind the computer telling their 8 year olds “ask your teacher this”. My daughters 1st grade teacher, not a single thing…she’s all business, and she was clearly the superior teacher as well.

    I think it’s absurd they are speaking about being anti-racists to my kid when my son still hasn’t quite figured out what race is. The other day, my daughter asked us if she was Indian because she was so tan. They constantly focused their entire curriculum to surround these “woke” months for each ethnicity. Apparently, last month was Asian American heritage month or something like that. Not a single mention or thing. So much for “inclusivity”. I’m going to gaslight the superintendent on that one. It’s all fake posturing. Joint the cult, go along with it, drink the kool aid.

    Me, I would never dare even give a single political viewpoint in my classroom. It’s is completely inappropriate and nothing good can come from it. My job is to teach Physics.

  161. No One says:

    The crappiest home in my extended neighborhood just sold for $715,000 early this year. It’s some 1973 home left over from before the major home development that came in the 1990s, 4br, 2.5b, probably about 2500sf on 1.1 non-landscaped acres. I was surprised it could break $500k. Still has a messy gravel driveway, possibly the only one in the neigborhood. I thought it would be a teardown, but someone bought it, put on some lipstick, and flipped it. Was just walking past it at dusk with my dog. Can clearly see into the living/tv room because they haven’t bothered to put up any curtains in front of the big window looking in on them. So anyone walking by with decent eyesight in the evening can see them watching pron on the big new LED tv. They also haven’t bothered to cut their grass since moving in – grass and weeds is about thigh-high throughout their entire front yard. I can imagine this is some kid from the city who doesn’t know what a lawnmower is or who thinks that tall grass and weeds is better for the environment. I’m glad this house is in another section of the development.

  162. BRT says:

    Btw, the only way to fight this is to teach your kids how to think for themselves on their own and teach them to not accept everything someone says as gospel. My son already rejects it all and sees right through it.

  163. Libturd says:

    Speaking of kids working or the lack thereof. I’m pretty sure this is why service is suffering so badly at all of the low wage positions. When you used to order from McDonalds, it would be a high school kid, average to better intelligence, putting your order together. Today, it’s a high school dropout. I see this sh1t everywhere. Last year, I ordered a spreader (seeds/fertilizer) from Amazon. They sent me 4 of them since they were all strapped together in the cardboard box which Scott’s sends them to Amazon in. I sold the extra three on Craigslist. I swear, this stupidity is everywhere.

    My son, still sporting continuous high honors through the end of his sophomore year works like I did. Besides his reffing gig (now level 3) which he works anywhere from 2 to 4 games a week at around $40 per. He is also a full time camp counselor in the Summer and bus aide (which means I don’t have to drive him) at a camp in Florham Park. He’ll make well over 2K for this job this Summer. On top of this, he volunteers twice a week at special needs ice hockey sessions to teach kids how to play.

    I have spoken with other parents and they say school is too hard for their kids to work. This is complete bullsh1t. My kid is not only a June birthday, making him younger than most of his friends, but has never had a single tutoring session or extra help besides staying for 9th period (which he does about half the time) to get extra help from his teachers.

    I’m not patting myself on the back here. He does all of this by himself. I have tried to raise him to be independent. So independent that he missed his second club hockey practice last night since he forgot to put it in our family calendar. Man was he embarrassed to tell the coach why he missed it especially since he missed the first one due to having too much homework. Did I mention? He plays full year club and Winter high school hockey as well.

    I’m so proud of this little man.

    Average SAT scores came out for all schools in NJ yesterday.

    Glen Ridge – 1265
    Montclair – 1206
    Wayne – 1142
    Paramus – 1129

    Millburn and West Windsor are at the top of the non-selection schools as usual. Glen Ridge in top 10. Montclair comes in at 1206.

  164. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Any job can be done cheaper. It’s a matter of having some empathy. Some people are hell bent on keeping people down. They obsess over cost at the expense of the human being.

    What you describe below. Is that the world you want to live in? One that obsesses over cost like Lib in the race to the bottom? Putting a cheaper price over a human being? It’s like the tree quotes with Lib, god forbid he lets them make a dollar on him so they can make a profit and pay their workers a decent wage.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:16 am
    Pumps – it’s a vicious, vicious cycle.

    If the kids are home permanently remote learning that means the parents cannot work in the office in NYC to pay the property taxes to pay your salary. That also calls into questioning the need for higher cost teachers. The school board could decide to outsource those jobs to cheaper teachers in say Montana who are just as capable but work for half the price from home.

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  166. No One says:

    BRT,
    Thanks for sharing. Good thing you are in physics, though even there I bet the new red guard are finding ways to inject wokeness. After all, they don’t believe in an objective reality independent from the perceiver. Eventually there will be “black physics” or “non-binary physics” etc.

    My daughter just took a European history course where the teacher (and book) mostly taught the class that The 1950s and 1960s in Europe were a period of oppression of women, lgbt, the working classes, etc. Never mind that economies and wages soared, particularly in places where economic regulation was relaxed. That kind of analysis that you might have heard about in the 80s or 90s has all been buried. The teacher gave the option for their final paper to either write about the 50s and 60s as a period of progress, or a period of repression. When my daughter asked, I said that though I disagreed with the conclusion and explained why, but told her in practice, it would be much easier for her to write the paper that the professor was pushing for and had given the class material and references for. (She had only a couple of days to write it.) Otherwise she was going to have to find citations all on her own for a positive view on the era. The professor himself had provided his own paper from Colombia U criticizing the capitalist oppression of that era of economic re-opening. So she regurgitated the drivel and got an A. But it was garbage.

  167. PumpkinFace says:

    They’re losers, not winners. Capitalism baby! I guess you took different meds today.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:48 am
    Any job can be done cheaper. It’s a matter of having some empathy. Some people are hell bent on keeping people down. They obsess over cost at the expense of the human being.

  168. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Honest question. Why do you cheer on anything that hurts NYC metro area? Why do you want this area to fail? Any chance you get, you take shots at this area in the hopes it falls.

    3b says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:27 am
    Juice: Pumps doses not understand, before WFH it was going geographically agnostic as far as filling open positions. When we got back one or two days to the office in the Fall, my team will be in 4 different locations, when we need to meet it will be by Zoom. No different than Zoom from home

  169. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And then you call yourself a NYer….wtf?!

  170. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just calling it like I see it. I’m for capitalism, but I don’t obsess with cost to the degree that some do. Your point?

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:53 am
    They’re losers, not winners. Capitalism baby! I guess you took different meds today.

  171. 3b says:

    Pumps: I am not cheering what’s going on,simply telling you what is happening. No need for you to get emotional about it.

  172. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are a good dude, and you get it with boomers. They have been on a selfish destructive path for 5 decades. Selling off the best things about America for personal gain. One can only hope China does the same to their country.

    Phoenix says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:19 am
    JB
    it’s a vicious, vicious cycle.

    Sure it is. But it’s top down. And you are right, they can remote teachers from Montana.

    Is that better for your kids?

    Well, in all honesty, Boomers don’t really care about much other than themselves, so it doesn’t really matter anyway.

  173. 3b says:

    Pumps: You are for capitalism as long as it focus is in NYC area.

  174. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You cheer it on, why do you think I always go after your posts. I just want to know why? Can you give me that?

    3b says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:59 am
    Pumps: I am not cheering what’s going on,simply telling you what is happening. No need for you to get emotional about i

  175. 3b says:

    Pumps: Again, telling you the way it is. You claim to be a capitalist, deal with it. I told you long ago, that NYC area would ultimately screw itself and become non- competitive. Well it’s happening. You cheer on high prices and property taxes, I told you it would become an issue. Well, it has.

  176. Juice Box says:

    Globalization was always cast in a bad light, in some ways it was and in others it has raised huge populations around the globe out of poverty. Labor arbitrage can also be good for NYC or any other region in the USA. It might lower housing costs in some.

    For example housing in the beltway is way overpriced. You use to have to live there to work in Federal government. This month the government is poised to release new guidelines for which jobs can be performed 100% remote etc. that should eventually take some pressure off the housing market there.

    There are costs and benefits that fully have yet to be quantified and are still difficult to predict. At best it will be several years before it fully shakes out for NYC or any other region.

  177. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So NYC is dying?

    I can only think about what the locals in places like Austin and Tenn are saying as they are watching their taxes rise and cost of living forcing them out of the area. There is a 3b in Austin or Denver right now, crying about the rapid rise in costs as better jobs come to the area. You don’t think about that, though, do you? How many locals in Carolina can still afford to live where they grew up?

  178. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    Mine too. He knows things have gone too far. I don’t watch my kids remote school. Not with the aut1stic one and never with my 15-year old. We don’t look at their homework either. They are independent. I can’t tell you how many times I uttered, “life’s not fair” to my 15 year old.

    Here’s a fun story.

    When my son “R” was ten, he played in an expensive hockey tournament up in Lake Plac1d. This was one year after the “D” was first diagnosed with brain cancer. Well my son takes it upon himself to enter an essay contest they were having that tournament weekend which would have deferred most of the cost of it. He pours his heart out writing about his brother, but admittedly, he’s only a med1ocre writer since he doesn’t read nearly enough. A teammate of his also submitted an essay about, get this, our sick son, as well. Only this essay was written by his tiger mom. When it was announced that tiger mom’s essay won, we had to explain how life’s not fair, yet again. Espec1ally, when our ten year old asked why “We” didn’t help him. Though we’ve asked a number of times to see the winning essay from that friend on Ryan’s team, they refuse to share it with us. Surely, because it was written at a much higher level than fifth or sixth grade.

    Don’t be THAT parent. I just wish most teachers would grade on a scale when it comes to those whose parents do their kids work, versus those who don’t. I’ve always pleaded my son’s case at back to school night, when I used to go. I would always tell the teacher, don’t tell me if my kid is bl0w1ng it. Tell him. I also made it clear that we don’t do his work. Sad, but this is how it really is.

  179. Libturd says:

    On a completely different topic, I’ve learned from my son recently that all of his teenage friends have been buying crypto. I mean, nearly every single one of them. They use it to g@mble online at off shore cas1nos. They even bet on Tw1tch users who let you watch them g@mble. The whole thing is disgusting. The most popular game they bet on is this stupid rocket, obviously geared towards kids, that works essent1ally like the y0del game on The Price is Right. I asked him if any of his friends have cashed out a win. He said no. I told him to stay away from crypto like it was krypton1te. This stuff is bad news. Look at this cr@p google rocket run crypto

  180. PumpkinFace says:

    My point is that you’re a crazy person.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:57 am
    Just calling it like I see it. I’m for capitalism, but I don’t obsess with cost to the degree that some do. Your point?

  181. Libturd says:

    Come on Phoenix,

    They do that sh1t on WWF all the time. No one gets hurt.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Whatever makes you feel better.

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 4, 2021 at 11:20 am
    My point is that you’re a crazy person.

  183. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s what I said last night in a post. That’s why they are having trouble finding low cost workers. So many gamers starting riding the crypto and MEME runs. Yes, not all are winners, but there is enough of them.

    Let me ask you a question. If you can make 20,000 off of crypto while playing video games, are you going to go work at that restaurant for 20k a year?

    These gamers all chat….they all talk to each other. Lots of them have absolutely killed it.

    Libturd says:
    June 4, 2021 at 11:19 am
    On a completely different topic, I’ve learned from my son recently that all of his teenage friends have been buying crypto. I mean, nearly every single one of them. They use it to g@mble online at off shore cas1nos. They even bet on Tw1tch users who let you watch them g@mble. The whole thing is disgusting. The most popular game they bet on is this stupid rocket, obviously geared towards kids, that works essent1ally like the y0del game on The Price is Right. I asked him if any of his friends have cashed out a win. He said no. I told him to stay away from crypto like it was krypton1te. This stuff is bad news. Look at this cr@p google rocket run crypto

  184. 3b says:

    Pumps: You are coming undone again.

  185. PumpkinFace says:

    Whatever distracts you from actually doing your job.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 11:26 am
    Whatever makes you feel better.

  186. chicagofinance says:

    Do you agree that starting when schools let out around 2:30-ish that traffic has been insane around here (for Monmouth County that is)? Last few weeks only.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 8:47 am
    re: “if it takes off”

    Pumps there have been 50 million people working from home for over a year now. The ridership data for NY Metro on mass transit has only improved a few points. We are a long way from 5 million subway rides a day in NYC. Yesterdays # for example was pretty decent.

    Subway Wednesday, 6/2/21 2,343,962 -59.3%
    NYC Buses Wednesday, 6/2/21 1,170,061 -49%
    LIRR Wednesday, 6/2/21 112,500 -61%
    Metro North Wednesday, 6/2/21 95,300 -68%

    I cannot find NJ Transit they hide the data, but their press releases say 75% down from pre-pandemic on Rail and about 50% on Bus.

  187. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, my tolerance is for zero delay……

  188. JCer says:

    Pumps, you are dense. Whether lib pays $2500 or $5500 for his tree the worker is just as likely to get the shaft. A lot can go into what you pay be it profit or inefficiency but it is typically not the workers pay. I can tell you right now I used to use a plumbing contractor who was very expensive, we’ve talked to the techs and pretty much found out they are not treated well meanwhile if you call in PSEG their union “non-plumbers” are actually treated far better than the expensive rather large HVAC companies’ people and PSEG is cheaper to boot(their techs aren’t very good, but that’s another story all together).

    Rational capitalism is all about maximizing the desired result and price is just one factor, I’m sure we all would not hire the cheapest bid if we knew they were unethical. If there were no forces to reduce costs SO many things would be worse, you and all people have benefited tremendously from this.

  189. chicagofinance says:

    Just an anecdote……. I tried booking this efficiency for a visitor yesterday and the room price came in at $1,065….. today the price backed off, but it is still wildly overpriced….
    https://www.marriott.com/reservation/rateListMenu.mi?showFullPrice=false&defaultTab=prepay

  190. Phoenix says:

    So funny. Had to post. Driving a Mercedes no less.

    https://bit.ly/3vTMvWf

  191. joyce says:

    State Street to pay $115 mln criminal fine for overcharges – U.S. Justice
    https://www.reuters.com/business/legal/state-street-agrees-pay-115-mln-criminal-fine-customer-overcharges-justice-dept-2021-05-13/

    State Street Corp agreed to pay a $115 million criminal penalty and enter a deferred prosecution agreement to resolve charges the bank defrauded customers by secretly overcharging them for back-office expenses, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday.

    According to settlement papers, State Street admitted that from 1998 to 2015 its executives defrauded customers out of more than $290 million through hidden markups.

    The Boston-based company also admitted that its executives tried to conceal the markups by leaving the details off invoices and “actively” misleading customers who questioned them.

    Justice is served?

  192. Juice Box says:

    Chi – re: traffic after school… a bit….. I see the lots filling up in the afternoons now at the supermarkets. People seem to be shopping more often with smaller purchases etc. I do the same, just buy enough for one or two meals try to get freshest food etc. We order takeout much much less than we used to when we were commuting. Friday used to be pizza day always. We gave that up last summer, and I have had pizza maybe three times in the last year. Tonight we will be making a nice meal some spicy shrimp served with rice and a nice kale salad.

  193. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Listen, you can be as cheap as you want to be. I was only using Lib’s situation as an example.

    For myself, I like fair pricing. Too bad most don’t. Just like you pointed out. The plumbing contractor sucks up all the profit and will be damned if he has to share with his workers. Boomers created this mindset. They shipped off all our jobs in manufacturing in the name of efficiency, and increased their profit. Now their kids that are not highly skilled can’t support themselves without govt assistance. Way to think about the long term consequences of offshoring.

    JCer says:
    June 4, 2021 at 11:39 am
    Pumps, you are dense. Whether lib pays $2500 or $5500 for his tree the worker is just as likely to get the shaft. A lot can go into what you pay be it profit or inefficiency but it is typically not the workers pay. I can tell you right now I used to use a plumbing contractor who was very expensive, we’ve talked to the techs and pretty much found out they are not treated well meanwhile if you call in PSEG their union “non-plumbers” are actually treated far better than the expensive rather large HVAC companies’ people and PSEG is cheaper to boot(their techs aren’t very good, but that’s another story all together).

    Rational capitalism is all about maximizing the desired result and price is just one factor, I’m sure we all would not hire the cheapest bid if we knew they were unethical. If there were no forces to reduce costs SO many things would be worse, you and all people have benefited tremendously from this.

  194. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think Covid accelerated eating out. You would think people at home would cook more, but nope, restaurants can’t keep up with demand now. I don’t know what these people do all day in their house. Just sit on the couch, get fat, and chill.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 12:06 pm
    Chi – re: traffic after school… a bit….. I see the lots filling up in the afternoons now at the supermarkets. People seem to be shopping more often with smaller purchases etc. I do the same, just buy enough for one or two meals try to get freshest food etc. We order takeout much much less than we used to when we were commuting. Friday used to be pizza day always. We gave that up last summer, and I have had pizza maybe three times in the last year. Tonight we will be making a nice meal some spicy shrimp served with rice and a nice kale salad.

  195. Phoenix says:

    Joyce,
    Civil court criminals need to be sentenced to jail time as well as financial penalties. Without the real fear of spending time in a prison, and the likelihood of getting away with crimes like this, what is the incentive not to commit the crime?

    And that’s why it happens.

    “They tacked on hidden markups to routine charges for out-of-pocket expenses,”

    Sounds like something a few of my attorneys did every chance they got.

    But as Lib says, life isn’t fair.

  196. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t mean eating out, they get take out, and it’s delivered.

  197. Phoenix says:

    “Boomers created this mindset. They shipped off all our jobs in manufacturing in the name of efficiency, and increased their profit.”

    GP,

    I agree. But as Lib says, life isn’t fair.

    The end.

  198. 3b says:

    Joyce: No jail time of course!

  199. BRT says:

    They try to insert things into my curriculum. Doesn’t happen. There’s a lot of climate change initiative they want us to incorporate somehow. Translate: Lie to the kids and pretend you actually know anything on the subject. Unfortunately, I actually do, but I won’t lie or engage in any type of groupthink/brainwashing.

  200. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The end….lol yup.

    Hey, it’s cool to pay your worker as little as possible to enhance your bottom line. Boomers call it “good business.”

    Phoenix says:
    June 4, 2021 at 12:13 pm
    “Boomers created this mindset. They shipped off all our jobs in manufacturing in the name of efficiency, and increased their profit.”

    GP,

    I agree. But as Lib says, life isn’t fair.

    The end.

  201. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s ironic about the boomers with their short sighted moves. They raised the standard of living for Chinese for 30 years straight at the expense of their fellow American’s kids. What a bunch of f/k ups. And they have the nerve to pat themselves on the back for doing a good job.

    Picture that. The so called “world sweatshop” has increased their standard of living at your kid’s expense. Winning!

  202. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think she is right. More and more people are like 🖕🏻.

    “Donna Valicenti • Wanaque Borough

    It’s not collecting unemployment that is keeping people from going to work. When you do the math pandemic unemployment comes down to less than hourly minimum wage. I think there is an actual work strike. The American people, especially in this tristate area need to be paid more than minimum wage in order to survive. There are very few “good” jobs anymore and in most cases no real careers. A sad situation for all.
    3 hr ago”

  203. PumpkinFace says:

    There are very few “good” jobs anymore and in most cases no real careers. A sad situation for all.

    and

    I don’t know where people get money, but I just know they have it. These prices are easily supported.

  204. Juice Box says:

    Do you really teach history?

    The USA saw the largest expansion from 1945-1965 because our competition in Asia and Europe were destroyed by the WWII. The auto industry had no competition, the housing boom came because of the creation of cheap mortgages. We morphed from a producer economy to a service economy during that time.

    This is why your leafy Wayne suburban home even exists today. Americans moved out of inner cities into new suburbs just to find “affordable” housing. This is why the shopping malls exist in Wayne, and the incredibly expensive mass transit runs into the city This is all a leftover from another time before you were even born.

    Times are a changing Pumps…

    All service jobs can be done remotely and many many will.

  205. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is the bifurcation of the economy. These home prices are indeed supported by the “haves.”

    “The US Economy Continues To Bifurcate Into An Economy Of Haves And Have-Nots

    There really are two Americas.

    Haven’t you heard? The US labor market is tightening up. People who have jobs are finding it easier to leave their jobs because they think other jobs will be available to them. Demand for high-skill professions remains high.

    And yet, we remain with stubbornly-high unemployment and record-low labor force participation rates.

    There are two labor markets, and two Americas. One America where things are good again–employment is secure, life is going on, you can pay off your mortgage. And one America where jobs are scarce and the future stormy.

    This is actually a bigger story than we think, because it complicates our simple ideological frames. This is not about 1% Wall Street fat cats robbing the common man. But it’s also not (to say the least) about welfare queens living large off the government dole.”

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 4, 2021 at 12:33 pm
    There are very few “good” jobs anymore and in most cases no real careers. A sad situation for all.

    and

    I don’t know where people get money, but I just know they have it. These prices are easily supported

  206. Juice Box says:

    So Gov. Phil Murphy signed his executive order today officially ending New Jersey’s public health emergency but at the same time signed the new law expanding his powers.

    Looks like evictions are pushed until after the November elections to the end of the year along with a few other things.

    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/06/gov-murphy-officially-ends-njs-covid-health-emergency-here-are-the-powers-he-loses-and-keeps.html

  207. 3b says:

    The home prices are because of Fed actions! Thanks Boomer!!

  208. Ez says:

    12:17 problem is the group-think, woke-think stuff is handed down as some sort of feel good / stay current (aka political) commentary. The admins in NJ are highly compensated and must somehow justify their existence. They are mostly useless.

  209. Bystander says:

    Face,

    Exactly. I take what left, JCer, Chi say to heart about changing careers. I get it. It is tough when you have masters, certifcations, training and generally worked very hard to scrape a decent living in IT. I don’t consider myself unskilled, worthy of $65/hr and no benefiits. It is not even questionable to me that there is little hope for this area going forward. So many calls, so many contracts, so many different skills/needs but the range all falls in same bucket. You will almost never see even 90/hr in banking. I saw it all time 10-15 years ago. 100/hr (800 day) was absolutely normal rate years ago. People have transferred their wealth from sky high NYC pricing to suburbs. They overpaid big time but I realize most will survive if high earning dual income but I know reality that many, many are not so unprepared at next downturn. They may survive but not thrive. The decay will be underneath when try to move a rung up and find no takers (wage caps) or raises don’t happen, like Trick. They will see taxes increase, basic items increase and their employer won’t care. Already seeing this. There are millions in this area who have less education, probably less ambition who still need to live in NY area. It is downright scary. Simply hoping the Fed can continue to blow their paper wealth up while real economy rots. You need a new legislation. There is no other way. Thinking economic activity will float all boats in foolish when the new marinas are in India, South America, Phillipines and even Africa.

  210. No One says:

    I met a 20-something smart youth yesterday who went to an Ivy, now works programming at Google. He bought early into bitcoin or whatever, must be up a lot. I asked him when he would sell to turn it into something real. He said “never” with conviction, and nodded about being a “diamond hands”.

    Reminded me of meeting a group of back office computer guys working for the IBs in 1999 when they all told me diversification was for dummies and that the only stocks you needed to own, and forever, were Sun, Cisco, and something techy- maybe EMC. None of which actually turned out to be the actual home run stocks of the subsequent 20 years.

  211. JCer says:

    Bystander, as I’ve said before the way forward for folks like you is out of the banks and into AWS, Google, Microsoft sales and service teams for their cloud offering. I’ve seen a stream of people leaving IT in banks to the tech companies which want to be the datacenter for the banks and fintech. There is opportunity there and it is largely an in person job. $800 a day is a low consulting rate for IB’s, we had a developer at MS when I was there in 2014 who had a 2k a day rate, 1000-1200 was pretty typical but then again we had no offshore outside of QA and ops, all development was done in NY, Montreal, or London.

    In this area the death of back office jobs in banking and insurance and the Pharma jobs should be a big hit to the regional economy as those upper middle class people form the basis of the local market for goods and services.

  212. Bystander says:

    JCer,

    Yep. I did not mention it but I have ex-boss absolutely fighting as hard as possible to find me a role in company for SAP Cloud work, where he is head of for North America. The problem with sales is travel, plain and simple. I am not spending 80% of my time on road, not happening. His company tried to spring it on me during interview and I balked. He is still trying but doubt it will work out.

  213. crushednjmillenial says:

    As of a day or two ago, commercial evictions are back to normal. No more showing that the lost rent is making it likely that the commercial landlord will face a foreclosure or whatever.

    Residential eviction moratorium is extended to Jan. 1, 2022. I am perplexed as to why they kept the heightened standard in place for issues besides non-payment. So, a landlord with a “loud music tenant” or a tenant that now lives with unpermitted pets in a “no pets house” still needs to show a heightened standard.

    Lol, literally stadium concerts and indoor nightclubs are 100% back to full capacity, but evictions are still stayed. I don’t get the politics on this – do you think even 1% of the state is going to vote D (rather than R or staying home) this November because they haven’t paid rent in a year?

  214. Juice Box says:

    No One – Many of the crypto coin kiddies are going to take it on the chin. Great lesson for them to learn when they are still young. Simply ignoring reality like many did during DOT COM 1.0 is not the wisest of moves. Some things simply cannot be taught and must be learned the hard way.

    BTW their savior is becoming more and more their persecutor again today tweets. Musk does not like it when he is criticized. He tends to go after his critics, and will do this for years as he plays the long game only…

  215. Juice Box says:

    JCER – Just a point about “AWS, Google, Microsoft sales and service teams for their cloud offering”

    I know a few that have done it. You will become a piss·ant in the cloud wars. Huge Turnover……

  216. Ez says:

    Unhappy LA

    Someone must’ve made a Faustian bargain for a little less traffic in the Trader Joe’s parking lot, and all it took was a little bit of megadrought, perpetual fire season, eye-poppingly unaffordable housing and worsening income inequality. Yay?

    More and more people plan on moving away from Los Angeles. In fact, 10% of Angelenos now plan to leave L.A. County within in the next year, according to a newly-released survey from USC. And sure, people leave L.A. all the time, but this late-2020 figure represents a 40% increase over 2019, when 7% intended to escape the county, and amid a broader trend of population decline in California.

    Those figures come from the USC Dornsife-Union Bank LABarometer livability survey, which polled about 1,800 county residents between November 9, 2020 and January 7, 2021.

    The survey also found that while Californians and the country at large have generally become more satisfied with their quality of life, that’s not the case for Angelenos. On a scale from one to seven (hey, we didn’t make the oddly-number scale), with seven being the highest level of satisfaction, county residents’ feelings have dipped slightly from a 4.4 in 2019 to a 4.3 in 2020. That’s not a huge drop, but at the same time the state and country on average both increased from 4.6 to 4.7.

    The survey results don’t tie the move-outs and satisfaction gap to any specific cause (we mentioned the devastating infernos and $700K fixer-uppers, right?), and if anything it found some otherwise positive trends for L.A. County: Consumer confidence rose sharply in L.A. since the middle of last year, while it’s slightly declined elsewhere. In addition, fewer Angelenos have been concerned about crime, vandalism and drug use in their neighborhoods compared to 2019. Residents have, however, increasingly become worried about loitering, specifically that “too many people hanging around streets” is a worsening issue (reading between the lines here, in a year where this city largely ground to a halt, this surely must be referring to homelessness).

  217. Phoenix says:

    Maybe police, firemen, teachers, nurses, PA’s, and mechanics aren’t overpaid after all.

    After reading this it’s time to ask for a raise.

    “$800 a day is a low consulting rate for IB’s, we had a developer at MS when I was there in 2014 who had a 2k a day rate, 1000-1200 was pretty typical”

  218. Juice Box says:

    Crushed – courts in NJ are now backlogged with something like 60,000 eviction filings, that is for the landlords that even bothered to file…That is a moral hazard that will be pushed again until after the election.

    Will the deadbeats be able to even come up with the back rent? NOPE…. Just ask Pumps he might even be contemplating burning it to the ground soon…

  219. crushednjmillenial says:

    Maybe Murphy and the other D’s point is just to keep the delinquent tenants where they are until the election. If someone gets evicted from an apartment in East Orange, he might move to Newark, and maybe if you are a D vote wrangler, you can’t find him in November to give him a ride to a polling place so he can vote. Ok, so maybe this is how the eviction moratorium will, in fact, result in more than a 1% improvement in D votes this November.

  220. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s one big joke. I love begging for rent on a monthly basis. When I get paid a full month’s rent from him, I feel like I won the lottery. Again, what is the problem with paying right now? I’m sure this is fattening up his down payment on a house. He is in for a surprise when I drag his credit, and his son’s credit, through the mud.

    Juice Box says:
    June 4, 2021 at 1:41 pm
    Crushed – courts in NJ are now backlogged with something like 60,000 eviction filings, that is for the landlords that even bothered to file…That is a moral hazard that will be pushed again until after the election.

    Will the deadbeats be able to even come up with the back rent? NOPE…. Just ask Pumps he might even be contemplating burning it to the ground soon…

  221. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Life’s not fair. Pretty sad.

    Phoenix says:
    June 4, 2021 at 1:40 pm
    Maybe police, firemen, teachers, nurses, PA’s, and mechanics aren’t overpaid after all.

  222. Bystander says:

    ” I’m sure this is fattening up his down payment on a house. ”

    Ahh, you were right Blumpy. This guy is killing it and I see now why RE prices are “sustainable”

  223. Phoenix says:

    Free Digital thermostat for NJ Natural Gas subscribers. Plus other states.

    I have Elizabethtown.

    Life isn’t fair.

    Enjoy.

    https://slickdeals.net/f/15064363-get-the-ecobee3-lite-smart-thermostat-for-free-with-select-utility-companies

  224. InversePumpkin says:

    The real reason real estate prices are sustainable is because people are killing it in crypto and AMC.

  225. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just imagine how much money people are saving. Others aren’t paying insurance. Others aren’t paying gas & electric/water bill….

    So many things at play for the worker shortage right now. It’s like a perfect storm of factors at play.

    Bystander says:
    June 4, 2021 at 1:58 pm
    ” I’m sure this is fattening up his down payment on a house. ”

    Ahh, you were right Blumpy. This guy is killing it and I see now why RE prices are “sustainable”

  226. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you know how much money some of these people have made…keep laughing.

    InversePumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 2:09 pm
    The real reason real estate prices are sustainable is because people are killing it in crypto and AMC.

  227. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why do you think these prices in real estate are not sustainable? It’s not going to keep going up as rapid as the past year, but they are sure as hell are not going down. They will only rise through this decade.

    Again, I don’t know where all the money is coming from, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is that people are going to war over the price of a house. They have ammo. Look at how many bids on a house. Every loser is another buyer still looking and in position to buy.

  228. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Another way to find workers: Hire kids. The unemployment rate for 16- to 19-year-olds fell to 9.6% in May, the lowest recorded for teens since 1953. The share of 16- to 19-year-olds who work rose to 33.2%, the highest rate since 2008. The data show a tight labor market, especially for entry-level work, is benefiting teens heading into the summer. Most teens don’t face the impediments that might keep adults out of the labor force: They likely aren’t receiving unemployment benefits, don’t have family care responsibilities and tend to be healthy. Teens may also be willing to accept near-minimum wage jobs at a time when older Americans could be seeking jobs at $15 an hour or more. —Eric Morath”

    “To Find Workers, Employers Pay More
    As employers complain of labor shortages, they are urged to pay more. Message heard: Average hourly earnings rose a brisk 0.5% in May after rising 0.7% in April. They are still only up 2% from a year earlier, but those data are hard to interpret. Average wages were artificially boosted early in the pandemic by big losses among low-wage workers, and now the reverse is happening. Hourly earnings in more narrowly defined industries, which are less distorted, indicate strong demand is lifting pay. In leisure and hospitality hourly earnings jumped 1.3% in May from April and are 7% higher than in February 2020. At restaurants and bars, hourly pay for non-managerial employees was $14.96 in April (the latest month for which data are available), up 6.3% from February 2020. In May it likely topped $15—the level to which Democrats would like to raise the federal minimum. —Greg Ip”

  229. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What Economists Are Saying
    “Despite record demand for workers, the labor market’s recovery has entered a tricky phase. Businesses have reopened faster than workers are able and willing to return to work.” —Sarah House, Wells Fargo

    “Another disappointing rise in payrolls in May. The jobs deficit, at 7.6 million, is still substantial and job growth remains surprisingly sluggish in an economy that is no longer facing capacity constraints.” —Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics

    “Adding a half million jobs in one month would be phenomenal news in a normal labor market. These days, it’s a decent pace of growth. Hopefully we will see an acceleration in the months ahead.” —Nick Bunker, Indeed

    “While the spectacle of a blooming labor market isn’t visible yet, we still foresee multiple +1 million jobs reports over the summer with the economy adding around 8 million jobs in 2021 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% by year-end.” —Lydia Boussour, Oxford Economics

    “The 559,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in May was at least an improvement on the 278,000 gain in April but, with the level of employment still 7.6 million below its pre-pandemic peak, it would take more than 12 months at that pace to fully eradicate the shortfall.” —Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics

    “The labor market is lightly tapping the accelerator but has yet to show signs it’s ready to charge forward with a full head of steam.” —Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor

    “The tepid employment gains highlight labor demand and supply mismatches that are prompting firms to raise wages to attract workers.” —Frank Steemers, The Conference Board

    “Consecutive and broadly based upside surprises in wages make it clear that, notwithstanding some noise, wage pressures are certainly percolating.” —Robert Rosener, Morgan Stanley

    “I think it is clear that enhanced unemployment benefits are making workers more selective about re-entering the labor force.” —Eric Winograd, AllianceBernstein

  230. Juice Box says:

    Thanks Phoenix – I just ordered two..Alexa not built in the lite model, but I will take it anyway.

    They do collect the sales tax. Pumps needs his pension funded too.

  231. JCer says:

    Juice, I’ve seen it first hand but these guys are still making way more than they were in their bank days. But yes it far from stable and companies like amazon are really short of good architects and developers. When we were engaged with AWS we were discussing solutioning with AWS engineers in CA because frankly their people in NYC weren’t cutting it. What I saw was our contact at AWS became our cloud architect so there is always that as well, the clients will throw tons of money at the folks with proven cloud knowledge and skills. It’s probably better to go to a fintech than even a cloud vendor. Whatever it is it still better than rotting away in most of these banks at the moment.

  232. JCer says:

    Phoenix, it’s a skill in short supply. Do you realize how many people we would interview to fill a single role? As bystander mentions with experience, education, and intelligence people expect to be paid. $150 an hour isn’t obscene, it’s what you pay your mechanic or the guy who comes to fix your HVAC why would you expect an experienced engineer to make less? Once you figure in the costs of being self employed and the lack of benefits 800 a day is like a 160k comp package for an employee, engineer starting salaries from schools like NJIT are 90-100k.

  233. Juice Box says:

    JCer – I hear you about rotting away. I have an architect friend who I worked with for a decade who now does the cloud transformation day and night. Salary is $350K + bonus, but there is a grind there that few can deal with. Pre-Covid he was flying everywhere and well now is divorced but happier. These days for him it’s all remote. I am considering joining as well, there is an opportunity for me so I won’t pass on the contact info :)

    Personally I have done all this in a previous gigs, it was a real grind at IBM back in the day. I also did the cloud transformation at my last gig, we did Azure and GCP until well the plug was pulled on the spend. I also spent allot of time with 3rd party integrations vast majority of those vendors on AWS. That was more fun as well since we got it done from scratch…I however really do not miss the late dinners when we could order the expensive wine to go with the wagyu. Been there done it as they say…

  234. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s no fun when you have to defend your pay, huh?

    I’m in supposedly the dream job. It’s so easy, yet most young teachers leave my district within 3 years of starting there. If it’s so great, why are they running away? Easy, they don’t pay enough for what the job entails in an urban setting. Yet, you have to hear joe P complain that you are overpaid when they would not work at an urban school. Look at BRT, he wouldn’t take an urban teaching gig as a career.

    Urban schools thrive on young college graduates that don’t know what they are getting into. They almost all leave…

    I’m not going to lie. I almost quit numerous times in my career. I would never want to go through that again.

    JCer says:
    June 4, 2021 at 2:47 pm
    Phoenix, it’s a skill in short supply. Do you realize how many people we would interview to fill a single role? As bystander mentions with experience, education, and intelligence people expect to be paid. $150 an hour isn’t obscene, it’s what you pay your mechanic or the guy who comes to fix your HVAC why would you expect an experienced engineer to make less? Once you figure in the costs of being self employed and the lack of benefits 800 a day is like a 160k comp package for an employee, engineer starting salaries from schools like NJIT are 90-100k.

  235. Juice Box says:

    Along comes Dorsey to be the antihero to Musk. He is going to have to shoot first if he really means he wants to spend the rest of his life as he says promoting Bitcoin.

    “Billionaire Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter and Square, is extremely bullish on the future of bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value.

    “Bitcoin changes absolutely everything,” Dorsey said Friday at the Bitcoin 2021 Conference. “I don’t think there is anything more important in my lifetime to work on.”

    “if I were not at Square or Twitter, I would be working on bitcoin. If [bitcoin] needed more help than Square or Twitter, I would leave them for bitcoin,” he said. “But, I believe both companies have a role to play.”

    This is in part why Dorsey, with music mogul and entrepreneur Shawn “Jay-Z” Carter, created a multimillion-dollar fund to further bitcoin development in Africa and India, he said.

    “I don’t think there is anything more enabling for people around the world,” Dorsey said.

    Dorsey believes that bitcoin will become the native currency for the internet, he said, and “the only reason Square got involved with bitcoin is to that end.”

    “That’s why we don’t deal with any other ‘currencies’ or ‘coins’ because we’re so focused on making bitcoin the native currency for the internet,” Dorsey said.

    “Whatever I can do, whatever my companies can do to make [bitcoin] more accessible to everyone is how I’m going to spend the rest of my life,” Dorsey said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/twitter-and-square-ceo-jack-dorsey-focused-on-bitcoin-btc.html

  236. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BLM! Hats off for Jay-Z, robbing the African people blind. I guess it’s only wrong if whites do it.

    “This is in part why Dorsey, with music mogul and entrepreneur Shawn “Jay-Z” Carter, created a multimillion-dollar fund to further bitcoin development in Africa and India, he said.”

  237. Fast Eddie says:

    This person claims to be a teacher and has been posting all… day… long.

  238. Bystander says:

    Not a good teacher Ed. Remember his lies about being so efficient in private sector that he can multi-task. Boss loves him so much that he gets 10-12% raises a year. Straight up lying sac. There is no way he can teach kids. Something is up. Guessing harassament investigation or fake medical issue where they put him on leave. One of his “animal” students pushed him and he hurt his pinky.

  239. Bystander says:

    Too bad it was not his typing finger..if only someone would gnaw it off.

  240. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol…you guys think what you want.

  241. Ez says:

    The school year is essentially over btw. Final grades. Etc.

  242. Trick says:

    How are your towns handling the possibility of opening marijuana dispensaries? Our town voted over 65 in favor on the NJ vote but the town is pushing not to allow it, other near by towns are currently debating. Not my thing but think it should have been legal decades ago.

  243. JCer says:

    Pumps all I’m saying is supply and demand. You can’t find a qualified mechanic to work on a european car for $30 an hour, maybe you get someone who can change the oil.

    The difference is we have to justify our existence on a daily basis, in the private sector there are teams of people focused on cutting costs, we are the “costs” they are looking to cut, either by reducing staff or increasing productivity. If I don’t make or save the company more than I cost I’m gone, if someone else can do it cheaper, I’m gone.

    Bystander understands this, he lives this reality, in his world the rate is set by Cognizant/Infosys/Wipro/HCL, they charge around $600-650 per day for a domestic consultant(H1B), $200 per day in India. Organizations that get on that bus are really tough places to work because you always need to justify why you are paid what you are paid. meanwhile his offshore developers take 5 times as long to solve problems as there onshore counterparts and get it wrong twice as often.

    Juice you are right about that aspect, that is why I continue to live in corporate hell. With young kids and a wife with a career it would be too much. The only way we go down to one salary is if we can get a salary of over 500k(not including bonus, need that guaranteed money).

  244. JCer says:

    Pumps, it goes back to what I was saying they are leaving because better opportunities abound. As a teacher do you really want to expend effort to teach a bunch of kids who don’t want to be there? If you are good at it would a nice suburban district without all the problems and drama be a better place to teach, I’m sure you can take your existing salary and get a similar offer.

    So why haven’t you left? I’m sure a nice town like Wayne with good schools could use your services. If I were in your shoes I wouldn’t stick around in East Orange, the only reason to stay there is so you can mail it in because the students don’t care nor do their parents for the most part and in my view is the administration just wants to stay in the good graces with the state so the gravy keeps flowing but other than that they don’t care either.

  245. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I get it and I don’t mean disrespect. I just hate how people think because I’m in the teacher’s union, I don’t have to do my job. I don’t know how it is in the suburbs or when you are “connected,” but in my district, I have to do my job. These admin try to make a name for themselves while drunk off the power trip. It’s not fun. It’s borderline harassment.

    In your observations, you have to address the weaknesses and show growth in next year’s observations in that area. It’s no walk in the park.

    Yes, the union fights for you to keep your job, but no one wants to be that guy in the rubber room. You know how embarrassing that is? Your peers will never look at you the same. It’s basically telling all your peers that you are a loser. I didn’t last 16 years in my district by not doing my job (fast eddie and bystander.. think what you want).

    JCer says:
    June 4, 2021 at 4:05 pm
    Pumps all I’m saying is supply and demand. You can’t find a qualified mechanic to work on a european car for $30 an hour, maybe you get someone who can change the oil.

    The difference is we have to justify our existence on a daily basis, in the private sector there are teams of people focused on cutting costs, we are the “costs” they are looking to cut, either by reducing staff or increasing productivity. If I don’t make or save the company more than I cost I’m gone, if someone else can do it cheaper, I’m gone.

  246. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I should have left, but I guess I’m just a sucker. My district was one of the higher paying districts when I started, so I hung around.

    You know you lose tenure and have to go through that entire hellish process again, right? The process where they drag you around for 3 years and let you go before tenure. I can’t risk it now, they have me by the balls.

    “why haven’t you left? “

  247. Phoenix says:

    What’s Tenure?

    I get shown the door when I don’t produce or a make a mistake.

    Must be nice.

  248. Phoenix says:

    JB,
    Your welcome.
    It’s weird how one gas company does this, but another does not.

    Same with electric companies- some states you can get free LED bulbs, but not NJ.
    Discounted, but not free like some other places.

    Glad to hear you got the deal. I’m one notch closer to Cap’n Cheapo.

    Never catching up, however.

  249. PumpkinFace says:

    You’re a winner in the NYC market. You can succeed anywhere. What happened to all of your business plans? How much more real estate did you buy the last couple of years? Can’t you just live on that?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 4:24 pm
    I should have left, but I guess I’m just a sucker. My district was one of the higher paying districts when I started, so I hung around.

    You know you lose tenure and have to go through that entire hellish process again, right? The process where they drag you around for 3 years and let you go before tenure. I can’t risk it now, they have me by the balls.

  250. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Rob Carrick: I’m also grateful not to be looking for a house in Toronto in 2021 because my wife and I couldn’t afford what we so casually bought in 1992

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-2021-vs-1992-i-couldnt-afford-my-toronto-house-if-i-had-to-buy-in

  251. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Have another shot of that hater-ade on me.

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 4, 2021 at 5:35 pm
    You’re a winner in the NYC market. You can succeed anywhere. What happened to all of your business plans? How much more real estate did you buy the last couple of years? Can’t you just live on that?

  252. Juice Box says:

    Got to love this world we live in. Just got a message from a first cousin in New Zealand. Apparently someone we had no idea existed has matched as a sister or cousin on Ancestry.com. Person is a decade older than me and has reached out because of the DNA matches to my sister and cousins. Seems somebody my Dad or Uncles did not use protection…. My sister now thinks she has another sister….Funny stuff….I always knew my Dad and Uncles and cousins had a great time being young men.. Woman is nice enough but a dead ringer for my uncle and grandmother and aunts, my dad not so much..

  253. Juice Box says:

    Pumps _ I would ask them to stop already. I have plenty of family that are teachers and even two principals, even a few criminal too. They have no idea of the commitment to teaching. Some of these trolls are way worse than me! They are hiding behind bullshit screen names like cowards and act like children…

    Stop being mean to Pumps folks……He is and always will be like all of us a person with an opinion. If you don’t like his opinion do your homework and refute it…

  254. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thank you, juice. Appreciate it.

    This place has thickened the hell out of my skin. Almost as much as my place of employment has. As mean and visceral the hate is I have went up against on this forum, it’s nothing compared to the students I teach and the parents that ruin their lives.

  255. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I lied about my place of employment for obvious reasons. Those raises I talked about and who I mirrored was my wife. I wasn’t making it up out of thin air. She killed it and others killed it, I was only the messenger. I was not making stuff up. It was based on real people. Feel like a loser for even having to explain this, but I own it.

  256. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    I’m going on year 17 in my urban district. Ask any of your relatives if they would want to go through that. I already know the answer. That’s why I’m one of the oldest at my position at only 41 years of age.

    Admin make me sick at my age, because I knew these people when they were a teacher. If you love the kids so much and know it all…stay in the classroom. Lol

    I’ve been in education too long…lol

  257. 3b says:

    Pumps: Don’t rationalize your lying. You lied period. Man up and own it.

  258. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If I worked in a suburban district, I would have those students eating out of my hands. Yet, lefty doesn’t think this is a management job. That’s all it is.

    If you work in a rich suburban district, you better hope you cross your “i’s” because these parents will be on you with their lawyers in no time. Yet, I’m to believe teachers aren’t held accountable because they belong to a “union.” Stfu.

  259. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I own it, and I have owned it. What more do you want. My wife was getting those raises. Made me feel real good about choosing the teaching profession, let me tell ya💔.

    3b says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:15 pm
    Pumps: Don’t rationalize your lying. You lied period. Man up and own it.

  260. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And this forum just reinforces in my mind why you should never ever go into the teaching profession. You will never make what you deserve, while getting beat up by Joe Public for their high taxes. F’k that. My daughter will never deal with that. As long as I’m alive, she is not going into teaching. Joe public is not worth her time or energy. She is too good for that.

  261. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast Eddie complains about how his wife is underpaid, but then bitches about public school teachers. Meet joe public. Highly illogical.

  262. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, the teachers Union, that continuously produces top 3 education performance in the United States is to blame. Wake the f’k up. Is that not good enough results for you? Perennial top 3 out of 50? Wake the f up!!!

  263. PumpkinFace says:

    but incessant posting like having tourettes = highly logical

  264. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Make fun of it all you want. If that’s what makes you feel better, you do you.

    PumpkinFace says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:32 pm
    but incessant posting like having tourettes = highly logical

  265. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can’t fix stupid…yea, let’s move here.

    “Nearly three-fourths of the American West is grappling with the most severe drought in the recorded history of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
    Hot and arid conditions will exacerbate the threat of wildfires and water supply shortages this summer. Conditions this spring are much worse than a year ago.
    Parts of California, Nevada and Washington State experienced sweltering triple-digit temperatures over the past week and states released excessive-heat warnings and heat advisories in some areas.”

    https://apple.news/Ax9Mow3EsQbul-fjXalPkBQ

  266. The Great Pumpkin says:

    But 3b says Utah is cheaper than the northeast, we should move there.

  267. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If non-Union is better, why aren’t the non union states winning in the data?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 4, 2021 at 10:26 pm
    Yea, the teachers Union, that continuously produces top 3 education performance in the United States is to blame. Wake the f’k up. Is that not good enough results for you? Perennial top 3 out of 50? Wake the f up!!!

  268. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sad truth is, data doesn’t lie.

    If you think education is the same, go raise your kid bottom in the bottom rate state. I dare you…

  269. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And Wayne… why pay for Wyckoff housing when your kid is going to get beat by Wayne kids at sports? If your kid is only into education, Wayne will support that too. Let’s go!! 💪🏻

  270. Phoenix says:

    “you better hope you cross your “i’s” because these parents will be on you with their lawyers in no time.”

    Haha. Teachers worrying about lawyers and lawsuits. The only thing more protected from a personal lawsuit in America is a police officer.

    Try being in my industry. Not even close.

  271. Phoenix says:

    “But 3b says Utah is cheaper than the northeast, we should move there.”

    Until you have multiple wives. Then it gets substantially more expensive. Unless you get lucky.

  272. Phoenix says:

    “it’s nothing compared to the students I teach and the parents that ruin their lives.”

    Agree with you here GP. Some parents do go out of their way to ruin their children’s lives.

    And good teachers do help. My kid gets one per year.

    Your goal should be to be that teacher. To be the voice of reason in a sea of noise. It’s what I do in my work.

    You need to be the teacher that the student can learn from and is refreshing from a terrible home life. You have the ability to take a child’s despair and turn it into hope.
    That’s a moral thing.

    Or you could just close your briefcase and say, well, “Life isn’t fair.”

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