From Bloomberg:
Soaring U.S. Rents Are the Sticky Inflation With Staying Power
The cost of renting a home is soaring in cities across the U.S., squeezing the finances of low-income households and posing a threat to the consensus that pandemic inflation will soon fade away.
The median national rent climbed 9.2% in the first half of 2021, according to Apartment List. While part of the increase reflects a bounce-back in prices that dropped earlier in the pandemic, the real estate firm says rents are now higher than if they had stayed on their pre-Covid track.
And they’re still rising at a rapid clip — just at the time of year when the largest number of lease renewals fall due, locking millions of tenants into bigger monthly bills. Surveys by the New York Fed and Fannie Mae suggest renters are braced for further hikes of 7% to 10% in the coming year.
Higher rents are the kind of price increase that’s hard to reverse -– unlike many of the ones that have accompanied the economy’s reopening, from lumber to used cars.
That means a sustained run-up in rents could represent a bigger challenge to the Federal Reserve’s view –- shared by most investors –- that the current spike in inflation will prove transitory.
I used to think I knew some basics of economics. So, I can’t figure out why interest rates are practically non-existent when the cost of everything has skyrocketed. Also, how’s that $15/hour minimum wage working out? Think that has anything to do with a price increase?
Brisket at my favorite local bbq place has gone up 20% this summer.
Fast
The bread and circuses show would stop if interest rates went up to what they were 20 years ago.
Fast: Thank God for our Federal Reserve. We are lucky to have them.
I know the muppets freak out when the rate rises 1/4 percent but I would like to know why the FED is not talking about raising them, more aggressively than not.
Also, I’ve noticed a few more houses with “for sale” signs than I have in recent months. It seems like some are looking to cash out. Is anyone noticing an increase in inventory?
They can’t raise them to what they used to be in a quick manner because of debt. It would crash the economy if they raise it too soon and too quickly.
They have been lowering rates to support strong growth to build inflation in their battle vs deflation. Just because we have inflation right now doesn’t mean it will be here tomorrow or two years from now, and the fed knows this. They already told you two years ago that they are okay with letting inflation run hotter than 2% before addressing it.
Fast : Seeing more inventory too.
Fast: The Fed should be raising rates now, anyone that’s says otherwise is an idiot. They are talking about having a conversation about possibly raining rates sooner than they had planned. What type of nonsense is that??!! The Fed is destroying the economy, and the younger generation will pay for it.
I think next year the buying and price appreciation will pick up again. People that have given up this year and resorted to saving money till next year will make sure of it.
Also, people that think we are in a bubble and should wait till next year, will be acting on it too. They will realize by next year that it’s not crashing any time soon. That they should have bought in 2019. Those prices are gone with the wind. RIP.
No, the correct move is wait. You just totally shutdown the economy. Then you rapidly revive it. Most businesses were not ready for that kind of a rebound and then add in the Suez Canal fiasco, and you have massive supply issues that can’t last..aka transitory. It could get ugly, but chances are it can’t last once the supply chain has adjusted. This has nothing to do with the fed’s monetary program and they know it. If they are wrong, and this isn’t the result of supply chain issues in a rapidly expanding economy, they will RAISE RATES and take it from there.
3b says:
July 6, 2021 at 9:04 am
Fast: The Fed should be raising rates now, anyone that’s says otherwise is an idiot. They are talking about having a conversation about possibly raining rates sooner than they had planned. What type of nonsense is that??!! The Fed is destroying the economy, and the younger generation will pay for it.
Having an IQ that is sky high is not exactly having the deck stacked against you.
In fact, it’s a really great asset.
Now had he been a moron…
It’s the only thing that saved him. But his living situation was awful growing up. No father figure, poor, no parents home the entire time because his mother was working. In fact, it’s kids like him that are too smart for high school that the system has often left behind because of sheer boredom. I have a friend who works in the abbott districts. He is consistently blown away by the potential of many of his students. Unfortunately, their home situation is often dire and gets the best of them. Moreover, they are trapped in a system that forces them to go to that school as opposed to a wealthy suburb nearby. No one is showing these kids the path forward. Some of them figure it out, but, a lot of them are on their own. I’ve seen way too many kids from wealthy suburbs make nothing of themselves and screw up due to lack of direction from above to expect most of these kids to dig their way out on their own. I think giving them the freedom of school choice would go a long way towards that just by showing them a different environment.
The fed should have raised rates 10 years ago.
Look at Lumber costs and how rapidly the futures have fallen in price.
Also, like Jcer spoke of, how many businesses are raising prices in the name of inflation, but really don’t have to. They are simply taking advantage of the situation to raise prices while they can. They want to make up for money lost during the pandemic.
What happened in 2018 when Fed increased rates a few times to a rate still below what it was when Lehman collapsed? Housing and stock market convulsed. The Orange buffoon called Oz Powell a bigger enemy than President Xi. The jig is up, The Fed is now the economy.
Are you really that thick? They are still double pre-pandemic price. Would you be cheering if milk shot up to $15 a gallon and finally came down to $8? You paid $4 a year ago.
Lots of shrinkflation going on in food and consumer products etc. Bigger containers with less product etc. Doritos, Wheat Thins, Toilet Paper, Detergent, Pasta.
The lawsuit for “Slack-Fill” boxes with empty space against Barilla was just dismissed. Their 16 oz box is now only filled with only 12 oz of pasta. There are lots and lots of examples, especially with personal care products like deodorant, shampoos etc.
https://www.mouseprint.org/
The best modern example is Orange Juice. A 1/2 gallon of OJ is now only 52 oz down from 64 oz, They did go down from 64 oz to 59 oz ten years ago, but now it’s only 52 oz for the last few years.
Juice,
Some of that is the CPG companies don’t want to change the physical size of their packaging. Case counts and quantity per pallet would change and could cause issues at the big warehouses. Allocated space on the retail shelf would be impacted and as much as retailers guard their shelf space, they want the merchandise to display in a consumer friendly way, gaps etc on the shelf don’t look good. 5.7oz of Crest in a 6.5oz box.
Interest rates – traditionally a strong economy can handle rising rates to a point. Our economy can’t handle modest interest rates. Maybe its not so healthy because under the interest rate load, it would probably buckle.
Good article from the 4th of July issue of WSJ titled “Credit Suisse’s #Zolan Warns of Trouble Ahead in Money Markets”. Zoltan Pozsar is supposed to be the absolute guru about the repo market and he thinks there overnight reverse repos are headed to the $2T level. Too much cash with nowhere to deploy it = low interest rates according to the article.
An extra 1.7 million people retired earlier than expected between February 2020 and May 2021, per Axios.
Like I said, Fed bubble was final gift to boomers. Their five year plans got reduced to one and there will be impacts to labor market.
To the extent I’ll bother watching the Olympics at all, this will undoubtedly be the first time I’ll root against US teams. How can anyone root for the miserable cretins that comprise the US women’s soccer team — turning away from a 90+ year old WW2 vet as he plays the national anthem? Of course damage control has begun; we’re being asked to believe that some team members turned to face a different flag on a different flag pole, instead of the flag directly in front of them — sure. Pathetic, but par for the course in today’s US of A.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/us-women-soccer-flag-national-anthem-b1878703.html
Super pretzel inflation is what pisses me off. Their pretzels have been reduced to the size of a tennis ball. I’d much rather pay for a bigger product. As of now, I go to Philly pretzel factory across the bridge, buy 10, and freeze them.
To the extent I’ll bother watching the Olympics at all, this will undoubtedly be the first time I’ll root against US teams.
I think a lot of us are either thinking the same or at least not watching at all. Burning the flag on the podium? Turning away? Words can’t describe how much I loathe the progressive left or whatever that party is called.
We are far far away from any normal recovery. The pandemic stimulus from Congress now totals around $6 trillion and counting, or roughly 27% of GDP. The labor force participation rate is still down about 7 Million jobs from where is is supposed to be.
Remember the FED folks their efforts have lead to a monetary explosion of the M2 folks it’s up 27% in less than a year….and with the country reopened there is ZERO EFFORT to retrieve that 27% injection. This is directly from the Fed’s quantitative easing, the the Fed’s purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to date accounts for approx $4.5 trillion. Approx 3 Trillion of that cash was buying such securities from nonbanks AKA investors, giving the the seller (investor) payment, credited to the seller’s bank deposit account. The other Trillion of so went to the commercial banks who trade these securities.
12% this year alone of M2 growth coming from the Fed it’s trillions more. Why are the banks doing the REPOs in the first place? Those same investors are parked in cash, they cannot find anywhere to put it and they sure as heck aren’t going to give the help a raise.
Tie all the efforts of Congress and the FED to the rent, mortgage and student debt forbearance schemes with the stimulus and lowest rates in 2000 years and you have a rocket fuel monetary mixture. Problem is will the rocket lift off or crash? Until we get back to full employment the deficits ( $3 Trillion this year alone) will continue and the money printing and INFLATION to go with it.
re: lead article – Rents skyrocketing
By what measure and where? Asking rents seem to have jumped everywhere, but actually rents in NY or San Fran are down YoY approx 15% but up MoM a bit since reopening.
In the burbs and other cities landlords figured that people abandoning New York City or San Fran etc would come flooding into town so asking rents were jacked up. Landlords check apartment listings and saw that others were raising asking rents up, so they jacked asking rents them up further to try and see if they could get tenants at those rents, crating this rising rents cycle outside the major cities.
Yet, a 10ft Trump faced “American” flag being jammed through windows of our Capitol where 5 people died swells you with pride. I’ll take the women’s soccer team, thanks. Far right are the true hypocrites.
Barring the unforeseen, or an ill-timed gaffe, you need to cool your jets for at least six weeks.
https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/
3b says:
July 6, 2021 at 9:04 am
Fast: The Fed should be raising rates now, anyone that’s says otherwise is an idiot. They are talking about having a conversation about possibly raining rates sooner than they had planned. What type of nonsense is that??!! The Fed is destroying the economy, and the younger generation will pay for it.
re: “unforseen”
We don’t have to wait six weeks. They answers will be the same. This monetary fantasy ain’t run it’s course yet, it’s too soon to raise rates. The Fed is targeting “maximum” employment over “full” employment.
According to many economists including those at the FED and the banks as well as others right about now this month the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and economic reopening will have reached maximum impact.
Without new helicopter money how do we get to robust GDP growth and maximum employment? Answer is we don’t so the helicopters will keep flying. Enjoy your 15 ounce bag of Doritos for $20 dollars.
https://tinyurl.com/48cwdkbj
“Are you really that thick? They are still double pre-pandemic price. Would you be cheering if milk shot up to $15 a gallon and finally came down to $8? You paid $4 a year ago.”
Why do you even try…lumber traded in a 200-400 range for the most part of the last 30 years until recently…shoots up to 1600 then retraces to 800….he’s a fool
“Zoltan Pozsar is supposed to be the absolute guru about the repo market and he thinks there overnight reverse repos are headed to the $2T level.”
TY, I’ll chase that down.
I almost posted a week ago that the overnight Fed participation went to nearly $1T…it was at quarter end though so that may have been a factor….the repo purchases are artificially supporting the the overnight/counter rate which would otherwise be looking at heading to zero/negative and making the Fed’s stated rates/policy irrelevant….
Recall, before the last 15 months of pandemic distraction the Fed’s concerns were jacking long rates enough to have ‘room’ for a future interest rate cut in a recession…the issue then was the curve inverting as long rates (over which the Fed has little control) were declining as the Fed jacked ST rates (which they control).
We are picking up right back where we left off.
OT, but can someone explain this to me? I am obviously missing something and as such find it bizarrely frightening….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-iwgGgO3qc&ab_channel=EstherLastra
Beneficiary of SJW advocacy shoots self in foot with SJW commentary . . .
Maybe Phoenix will appreciate this as it involves a woman being dumb. Also, anyone who is anti-SJW.
Rachel Nichols, a 40+ year old female ESPN reporter, made comments essentially stating that ESPN may have tried to bow to racial justice advocacy by scheduling a black female reporter into some coverage of the 2020 NBA Finals rather than Nichols.
Now, Nichols is out as ESPN sideline reporter for the 2021 NBA Finals.
I don’t mean to be inflammatory, but what percentage of sports fans want to watch sports coverage by a 40+ year old woman? Maybe 1-2%? Nichols is an example of a media personalty that is shoved down sports fans’ throats by a PC/SJW elite inside the sports networks. 20-year old female sideline reporter? Sure, as long as her screentime is quick. Nichols doesn’t understand why she has what she had, so she bit the hand that was feeding her.
Rent rise . . .
In my opinion, rents in urban north NJ are lower than pre-covid.
If national rents have increased, I believe it is driven by the ongoing $300 extra per week unemployment benefit and all the other stimulus.
One additional factor, which will never be mentioned in any news article about this topic ever, is that with eviction moratoriums, some natural household destruction is not happening. What I mean by “household” is an individual or a group of people who together occupy a housing unit. There are many households that exist right now that would have been “destroyed” if facing eviction – they would have been “destroyed” by, for example, a 25-year old with his own apartment moving back into his parents’ home because he can’t pay the rent. In my experience, household size increases when the economy is doing poorly, but the edicts of governors have kept that from happening during this past downturn.
The biggest crime at ESPN is that they pushed out David Aldridge for Stephen A. Smith around 2005. Aldridge, who is also black, was better than anyone ESPN has used since his departure.
“In my opinion, rents in urban north NJ are lower than pre-covid.”
Give it one year. I am raising rent on my one tenant by 8.5%. Montclair has an annual increase limit of 4.25. Since the rent freeze went into effect, I am now three years behind on raising the rent on this tenant. Let them go to the rent control board. They are lucky I am not charging compounded interest or asking for back pay since they suffered no hardship.
You are a trader. Where is the momentum going? Would you catch this falling knife? The restart messed up the lumber chain’s production. It has passed. No one is going to keep paying those prices for lumber…why? At those prices, it’s a race by each individual in the wood industry to try and sell into those high prices. So they flood the market. It’s not sustainable.
“Why do you even try…lumber traded in a 200-400 range for the most part of the last 30 years until recently…shoots up to 1600 then retraces to 800….he’s a fool”
Re: household destruction….agree, crushed….the amount of distortion on distortion is incomprehensible…fiscal, I understand. Arguably, fiscal ‘distortion’ exists to smooth the business cycle economically and to help those people specifically impacted. But the Fed + Covid for the economy in total? Measuring the impact of layering these distortions on top of each other is exponential, not just additive…gonna get interesting.
Re: sports broadcasts, I watch F1 on Sky. For the preshow there are two great Brit announcers who know the sport, have experience, are value added for the viewer, and just overall fun to watch as the beat on each other with rapport. This week they inserted a woman…nice, but clueless….the show turned into the Ellen show….she was effectively reading cue card question after cue card question to the two hosts…no flow, no fun, no understanding of the sport so no ability to tickle out informative or fun details…..sucked horribly, but hey, they’re politically correct now too. Go Equality!
Talked to the local burger joint employee today. They can’t get anyone to work. And when they do, they all haven’t worked in a year and are too lazy to handle the workload. The employees that were in the business the entire time were working harder than ever.
On distortions, they are massive. When you take a family that has their take home pay increased significantly from unemployment bonus/stimulus checks and the ability to not pay rent without recourse, your disposable income goes up 4x, 5x, 10x?
Nice thunderstorm tonight…..Back of my yard like a river…
Two nasty cells rolled through here……last one looks to be over Westfield now.
Yea, Left, trying to work out if your side (i know you like to paint in those very broad brush strokes) have the monopoly on Faux Outrage on these types of issues!
Why don’t a few in here work out where they stand on this issue and then we can have a real discussion.
“Some right-wing outlets and pundits spread a phony story about US soccer players turning their backs on an elderly vet (they’d turned to the flag). Then, post-debunking, one site seamlessly switched to attacking the players who *hadn’t* turned to the flag:”
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1412590505188335626
So my company have been giving us an allowance to upgrade our work from home setting. My last tranche went to a nice three display setup, this time I went for a top of the line Mechanical keyboard.
I’m old enough to remember the IBM M. This time around, the base is Billet Aluminum and the keys are sublime. No clack, but a superb tactile feel.
Nice thunderstorm tonight
I have burnt though 3 sump pumps in 2 years. My saving grace was at 11PM on Friday night I had a 12V bilge pump from my last boat that saved the day. It kept the water flowing out at the pace it was flowing in.
My issue in the end was the check value. It was jamming open when it should close, and jam close when it should flow.
Can I recommend this https://www.lowes.com/pd/Zoeller-Plastic-Check-Valve/1000675901? At lease you should be able to see what is happening with the waterflow.
Got a new sump, three years ago, but I still check the basement and drains now since the last one blew and had a bit of water in basement, changed check valve too. Turns out the tree roots invaded the lines. My gutters tie in underground pipe to the street, and sump etc, however landscaper save a few $$ and used cheap black corrugated plastic. I chopped out several sections after inspecting with a camera system, roots filled the entire 6″ line. So out went those sections replaced with solid PVC and glued them up tight and pruned back as much root as I could. I did it al myself with my trusty but now rusty pick axes and shovels. There is nothing like digging a muddy ditch to remind you where you came from.
I see we’ve got the same faux outrage stewing here.
Yawn.
After what the legal system did to me, and to me, America is the legal system, I wouldn’t care if they took a wet diarrhea crap on an American flag.
And to think at my last house one of my goals was to install a large lighted flagpole to praise the country I live in.
How things change.
$1.1 billion light rail to connect Paterson to Newark?
C’mon, you are pulling my leg.
You can already get from Paterson to Newark on NJT, with a quick transfer at Secaucus Junction. How many people are doing this every day?
Either way, it’s 51 minutes from Paterson to Newark. So really, it’s more like Clifton and Nutley are going to benefit the most from this thing, with 7 new stops. Looking at the ridership data, this is totally the case.
https://www.passaiccountynj.org/Departments/Planning/Technical%20Studies/Paterson-Newark%20Transit%20Market%20Study/Paterson-Newark%20Transit%20Market%20Study-Final%20Report.pdf
Fabius
Had my sump pump fail last year so I put installed a water powered sump pump as a backup. Works even when the power goes out. Pump cost under $200 and it was easy to install using pex and shark bite fittings.
After perusing that Paterson-Newark link, the only question I have is how many people get their pockets lined.
From the link above, can someone translate this for me:
The alternatives herein stand to benefit environmental justice and
traditionally disadvantaged populations in the corridor almost
uniformly; no one alternative risks significantly higher impacts, nor do
any alternatives fail to provide comparable opportunities for enhanced
mobility.
Just like I was talking about with lumber prices yesterday. Once the price gets high enough, it becomes a race to sell. These guys are trying to control the price, but human nature says otherwise.
“Behind the standoff inside OPEC over whether to boost oil production is a key cartel member with a new strategy: sell as much crude as possible before demand dries up.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-opec-deadlock-one-petro-state-looks-to-non-oil-future-11625659872
Eddie,
The rich and the poor equally, neither impacted worse than the other, and there is no other way to do it any better.
Spending over 1 billion to possibly remove 3,000 commuters off the road is ridiculous. I would think spending 1 billion towards modernizing the grid or creating renewable energy would have a bigger climate impact.
10Y around 1.32.
2/10 spread around 1.09 down from 1.23 as recently as last week.
Want to start a pool whether we see 1.22 or 1.42 first?
FM,
I had a bunch of those old IBM keyboards, the type when you wanted to use them later you needed a PS2 adapter.
Reminded me of the IBM Selectric Typewriters which at the time were the best in my opinion.
YNSTEJPgBkZyv
HMB,
Stay focused.
It’s not about climate impact. That is a non issue and distraction, only used as a tool.
Refer to Eddies question about pocket lining.
Plenty of greasing going on and I’m not talking about wheel bearings either. It’s the grease that runs America, it’s green in color.
Haiti’s president assassinated by a group pretending to be from the DEA.
Yeah, that’s about how they work. Imitate the best.
Environmental justice… I think the progressives just came in their pants with the invention of that term. I can’t keep up anymore, the cacophony and onslaught of symbols and phrases is blinding!
Eddie,
I kind of like that term. Its good for stay at home mommies to show their child how to clean up the environment. Load up a pail of recyclable wine bottles with Preston into the back of the Tahoe and drive 10 miles and show him how you were cleaning up the environment while hiding the evidence from daddy. It’s a win-win.
Now here are two words I never expected to see together, but it gave me a chuckle anyway.
Beetlejuice Lightfoot
Biden wants OPEC to produce more oil to keep prices low, but shuts it down in this country. Makes no sense.
Phoenix,
Environmental justice is just another term invented by the left to further divide and anger people based on race and gender in order to sway their vote for the benefit of apathetic muppets.
We can’t even make the old Boonton Line from Montclair to Jersey City a bike/walking path though a decade of pushing has occurred. Yet we can find one billion for a light rail from Paterson to Newark when they could run buses repeatedly around the clock for the next century down route 21 and do the same with greater capacity. Want it to be green? Run electric buses. Will still be infinitely cheaper and many times more flexible.
The 10 131bps
WTF?
Antifa or al-Qaida?
leftwing says:
July 6, 2021 at 9:56 pm
Two nasty cells rolled through here……last one looks to be over Westfield now.
“Why don’t a few in here work out where they stand on this issue and then we can have a real discussion.”
Don’t know why you’re calling me out on the ‘faux outrage’, it’s not a field I play on often.
I’m a very easy to understand and simple individual, my belief systems don’t change materially over time nor are they situational…ie, driven by politics.
As such, you already know my response to the Soccer thing, which I care so little about I don’t even know the details other than what was on the news in the background….
Make your own decisions and live with the ramifications.
The issue for me is when people make decisions but then also decide that they have the sole right to control other people’s views or reactions of your decision…if you’re going to take a knee during the anthem yeah you may sacrifice your employ in the NFL…man up or don’t do it. Womens’ soccer, I can’t be bothered to even research the details, I care so little.
As I said, not a field I usually play on.
Biden wants OPEC to produce more oil to keep prices low, but shuts it down in this country. Makes no sense.
If we shut down the US entirely, as in it doesn’t exist, doesn’t create one ounce of pollution, that would eliminate only 14% of the globes carbon emissions. Once again, the democrats and the left create fake panic and fear to manufacture votes from the ignorant masses.
“From the link above, can someone translate this for me:”
LOL. That paragraph is like someone took part of a real proposal and ran it through about five different foreign language beta translators and then back into English.
Entirely indecipherable, unless you speak ‘woke’.
Hopefully the ‘woke’ dialect will suffer the same fate as ebonics in the 90s.
“The light rail
options in this study have estimated costs ranging between $1.1 and $1.3
billion. The bus rapid transit option is estimated at $250 million.”
And this is with dedicated bus stations, right of ways, etc.
We are the dumbest state in the dumbest country. The environmental equality stuff is laughable. It’s pretty damn poor in lots of South Jersey too. Perhaps they should run a light rail from Hammonton to Vineland too?
And the Left’s response to everything is, Orange man s.ucks or something about the Capitol erect1on. Occasionally, out of desperation, something to do with Cov1d is tossed in there.
“Spending over 1 billion to possibly remove 3,000 commuters off the road is ridiculous. I would think spending 1 billion towards modernizing the grid or creating renewable energy would have a bigger climate impact.”
At $5k a hit you could eliminate 200,000 commuters dramatically raising quality of life and environmental prospects. Plus, not only will the money stay in Jersey it will have super velocity…mob muscle spends it as fast as it comes in…..mauve shorehouses with faux lead glass window doors and Italian delis are a sure buy.
“Reminded me of the IBM Selectric Typewriters…”
My HS graduation gift as i went away for college….fcuk, I’m old…..lol
Yep…. especially people who purchased/retain property adjacent to the right of way
Fast Eddie says:
July 7, 2021 at 8:33 am
After perusing that Paterson-Newark link, the only question I have is how many people get their pockets lined.
Who is traveling from Paterson to Newark on a daily basis, or even occasionally? NJ blows!!
“Entirely indecipherable, unless you speak ‘woke’.”
I’m not “woke,” but I understood it easily, cause I have dealt directly with the system that created woke.
Hope you are all ready to embrace and enjoy it, cause it’s a roaring train and coming right at you. It’s coming for me too, but I couldn’t care less either way.
You reap what you sow.
Think of the environmental equity 3B.
And remember who I said NJ exists for.
1) The urban minority
2) The government worker
3) Those with money to burn
It’s only going to get worse as 1 and 2 grow and 3 shrinks.
3b
Drug dealers, gang bangers, law enforcement and train conductors.
And all of the people that work in the courthouses and jails that are on the lowest rungs.
LW,
Repeat after me.
ASDF, JKL semi. ASDF JKL semi….
I remember when I learned this thinking I would never need it as no way was I ever doing a job as a secretary. No computers in my school when I graduated. Had no idea. Boy was I wrong. Turned out to be way more useful than I ever thought.
I did prefer the models that had the correcting ribbon.
Lib You are so right.
Phonemic: It will be a ghost train, no one riding it. But it will be all shiny any new.
I’ve lived in this state for nearly 50 years. From suburb to crime-infested city. NJ is an absolute disaster. At least in the past century, NJ occasionally held their politicians toes to the fire (Florio, Whitman). Now, anything goes, including buying the governorship.
“I did prefer the models that had the correcting ribbon.”
LOL, that’s the one!! A VHS like cartridge that you would pop in and out. Black ink, white correction tape!
Lib: We are the best and the brightest!
ainsi parlait zarathoustra audio book Film Une Journee En Enfer Dvdrip French Gratuitement color book hei hei
Black ink, white correction tape!
That’s a very racizz statement. I’m reporting you for intersectionality, sensitivity training.
Lib or anyone,
Any captain cheapo tips before I get carpet estimates? I heard padding is priority. Any brands to consider that are reasonable? Is Home depot even a consideration? Never done it. I have 4 rooms, about 500 sq ft I would guess.
Whitman
Haha. No one held her feet to anything. I wouldn’t trust her to to be able to tie her own shoes. Dumb as a box of rocks. But she went far in life.
LW,
It beat using Liquid paper. These are still in use for places where paper documents are necessary. You could change the balls for different fonts.
From a mechanical standpoint it was a really good piece of technology. And very reliable.
I don’t do carpeting, sorry. If I was to look for a break, it would be at Home Depot with a 20% off coupon and then find a credit card that gives you another 5 or 6% off. When the purchase price gets deep into the 4 digits or even 5 digits, that’s when those 20% off coupons even pay to purchase them off of eBay. For example, when I purchased tile or click flooring.
Just be careful, there is a purchase limit for which they will honor those coupons.
Bystander,
Use the Lib method
Get 4 or 5 to bid, then pit them against each other until they are paying you to install the carpet.
Whitman got burned for screwing up at the WTC site. She claimed the air was safe, when clearly it wasn’t. Of course, she took a lot of flack for https://tinyurl.com/whoopsieWhitman
I give her props. Not only was she smart enough for claiming to cut the state sales tax to 6% (by increasing property taxes), but she also parlayed her governorship into the head of the EPA (appointed by Bush senior).
Ultimately, she was about as ineffective as Corzine. She really did nothing as governor, but sure enjoyed the spotlight.
Phoenix,
I would be careful going lowest bid without knowing some standards around installation. A bad carpet job sucks. Plus, they could leave some staples sticking out intentionally.
The other thing is the quality of the carpet.
My long dead, ultra-rich grandparents on my father’s side had incredible carpeting in their condo in Fort Lauderdale on the Galt Ocean Mile. This stuff was so plush it felt amazing to walk on it. I can only explain it like the feeling of sleeping on a really great mattress. Even with shoes on you could tell it was top quality.
Lib: I believe it was Whitman who decided she could fund pensions by borrowing.
Lowes in my area outsourced carpet installation to some local guy. He was great.
3b,
“While former New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman rips into Gov. Chris Christie for his ties with Donald Trump, she evidently has forgotten she is the first governor to get the state into a dangerous trend by raiding the pension fund. Before Whitman, the pension fund was flush with money paid mostly by the state workers, which was legally to be used only for pensioners. She found a way to circumvent the law and raided the fund for other state expenses.”
Lib, you give “props” for this behavior? She was the cause for much of the problems that will continue to escalate here for years to come. Unless you have a fetish for blonde women who are deceitful, sneaky, and with the WTC incident, either as dumb as they come or unethical to the level of being a mass murderer.
https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/opinion/2016/06/whitman_started_the_raid_on_nj.html
Phoenix: That’s what I thought. She was a disaster, and so was young Bush. I blame them in large part for the rapid decline of the state and country respectively.
No props. I was being facetious. Sorry you missed it.
And yes, Whitman didn’t really borrow from the pensions. She just made the brilliant observation that if the fund is outperforming expectations, then why make the annual contribution if the fund is currently paying for it itself. Of course, when the fund underperformed (like it did when the tech bubble burst at the end of her second term and before mangravy), I don’t remember any governors recommending they put extra money in to cover the shortfall. I better keep my mouth closed. Murphy may be listening.
4th of July took a trip to the “Three States Monument” near Port Jervis.
As I stood near the monument all I could think about was how different the laws are on each side of it. Stand in PA, carry a pistol, stand in NJ or NY, get arrested for same thing. No preliminary hearing in NJ, but one in Pa. In New Jersey, the prosecution isn’t required to produce an expert to testify as to a person’s drug impairment, while Pennsylvania does place this requirement on the prosecution.
Amazing things can happen when you cross a state line. And as I drove there, I saw plenty of houses I liked and could afford. And then I thought to myself, no matter how beautiful the lot, the trees, the ponds, the landscape, they are all saddled with one thing. They are all in New Jersey.
That stink tops that the Chesterfield tar on the wallpaper, the burnt cabbage smell in the kitchen, the years of spilled Rheingold on the carpet, or the mold, cat pee, or anything else, cause that can all be remediated. But not the stink of NJ and its govt. It lasts forever.
Bet we haven’t moved up this year either, and with good reason…
“New Jersey ranked least patriotic state in America”
“Measuring 13 metrics on military and civic engagement — including veteran residents per capita, percentage of adults who voted in the 2016 presidential election and rates of volunteerism — the study ranked Jersey dead last among the 50 states.”
https://nypost.com/2020/06/22/new-yorks-neighbor-is-the-least-patriotic-us-state-study/
I don’t see how they can use the Norfolk Southern right of way for the project.
It’s an active railway, there are a number of commercial properties adjacent to the rail that still regularly use the rail for transport.
Note – I grew up in a house that backed to those tracks in Clifton, we knew it very well as kids. Hell, kids still use it as a main walking thoroughfare through Clifton.
Unless they are literally sharing the rails with the freight trains, I don’t see how they can add another set of tracks parallel to that. In many places there simply isn’t room for another set of tracks.
Gwb is easily the worst president in history.
The Party of the ineffectual.
Newly leaked video footage of a recent event hosted by the right-wing group Patriot Voices shows Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas openly admitting that his party wants “18 more months of chaos and the inability to get stuff done” as President Joe Biden, a bipartisan group of senators, and congressional Democrats work to pass climate and infrastructure legislation.
“Honestly, right now, for the next 18 months, our job is to do everything we can to slow all of that down to get to December of 2022,” Roy says in the clip, referring to the month after that year’s midterm elections. Republicans need to flip just a handful of seats to take back the House and Senate.
“I don’t vote for anything in the House of Representatives right now,” Roy says in response to an audience member’s question about the sweeping infrastructure and safety-net package that Democrats are planning to pass unilaterally alongside a White House-backed bipartisan deal.
BRT,
Would you let him read My Pet Goat to your students?
3b says:
July 7, 2021 at 9:50 am
“Biden wants OPEC to produce more oil to keep prices low, but shuts it down in this country. Makes no sense”
It makes complete sense if you accept the fact that the modern Dem party is incapable of good governance, and that Dem politicians are lazy, concerned only with symbolic gestures, and unwilling to place America’s interests above all else. In this case, canceling the Keystone pipeline was easy (if it had required SlowJoe to negotiate with congress for instance, he wouldn’t have bothered), it was symbolic in that the dopey Dems could claim some nonsensical environment benefit or to have settled a score for a tiny band of native americans in South Dakota, and it was not in the best interest of the USA in that it helped to cede oil pricing power back to OPEC+ (remember, T had effectively neutralized OPEC and taken pricing power from them by ramping up domestic production). Thanks Joe.
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The Woke crowd must be the modern day equivalent of the Puritans. A dour bunch.
BRT,
Would you let him read My Pet Goat to your students?
The only people who have ever visited my classroom were university research physicists or former students who are enrolled in a Physics program. He wouldn’t qualify.
“Honestly, right now, for the next 18 months, our job is to do everything we can to slow all of that down to get to December of 2022,” Roy says in the clip, referring to the month after that year’s midterm elections. Republicans need to flip just a handful of seats to take back the House and Senate.
Amen. Let’s hope the miserable democrats are mired in shit until the midterms. And a middle finger should replace a formal “no” vote as well.
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SGC,
Do you think there is an unlimited supply of oil on the planet? Just wondering.
“it was not in the best interest of the USA in that it helped to cede oil pricing power back to OPEC+ (remember, T had effectively neutralized OPEC and taken pricing power from them by ramping up domestic production”
“The Party of the ineffectual. Newly leaked video footage of a recent event hosted by the right-wing group Patriot Voices shows Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas openly admitting that his party wants 18 more months of chaos and the inability to get stuff done.”
Agree with Fast and I’ll add more….
Dems have been able to behave badly for decades now because they were always able to rely upon Middle America flag-waving citizens to get behind whatever horrid policies they implement when in office.
You know, the “my country, right or wrong” crowd that are openly mocked by Left.
But whom they nonetheless relied upon to fall in line behind them once elected. And who historically have.
The change now is that crowd is completely done with the Democrats.
They, and I, for the first time ever want an American Administration to fail horribly. To fall flat on its face. To implode on the international stage.
We realize it will “hurt” America. Short term. But it needs to happen. Like vomiting to disgorge ingested poison.
You may disagree. But I’m seeing and hearing it. That traditional Fourth of July parade crowd, volunteer firefighter, night spotlight on the flag hanging from the porch citizen has a seismic shift. They no longer associate America’s success with the Dems succeeding this term, and therefore don’t care what happens this term. They see America succeeding in the future not with, but in spite of, this current bunch.
I’m sure Lib among others will disagree given his and my opposite views on certain related political items like populism. But one gauge….where have the radical Left in the House gone? I’ll tell you where…Pelosi, who is by far the sharpest political tool in the shed bar none, understands the above and shut that group down. Hard.
Going to be an interesting 2022.
Here’s to America’s journey over the next 18 months. The Aunt kind of looks like Pelosi btw, lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJxhb5VvxsY&ab_channel=DJSeanE%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B2
Lib,
Some disagreement, but you are entitled to your opinion of course. From my perch, the Right should be happy that the Pelosi Party (I agree with you there) hasn’t really done sh1t. It almost feels like a logjam exists. At the end of the day, today feels a lot like yesterday. The cancel culture bullsh1t rolls on as the politicians get richer.
I might get behind your guys, but what a bunch of moronic hypocrites they all are. At least Pelosi is consistent. Mitch is like a flag in the wind.
In other news, looks like that interest rate drop in the ten year yesterday has spooked the market. My guess is that today is a big leg down, followed by a partial recovery in the afternoon. New highs next week.
Meant to say Left. :P not nearly enough sleep last night.
“Here’s to America’s journey over the next 18 months. The Aunt kind of looks like Pelosi btw, lol.”
Complete with the trash bag air bag.
Thanks for the laugh.
Lib: Markets don’t like a world without stimulus just the talk of pushing up the timeline for tightening has the market spooked. Great economy my arse!!
Drama much, left? The Dems have been behaving badly for decades? Two unfunded wars, and as a “libertarian” (wink), which party passed the worst assault on personal liberties called the Patriot act? Extra benefit that it armed local police to hilt and expanded govt with Homeland security Real core R principles at work. Middle america and their politicians could give a sh4t as long as they get farmer s*ialism and ever increasing military budget..cough jobs. Now is when I hear how Dumpy was changing all that..snicker
America desperately needs a third party.
Then take the other two, arm them with lethal weapons, and lock both in a room together.
Phoenix,
We have 4 parties. Traditional big oil paid off republicans, traditional progressive ‘I opened up this business ahead of legislation’ Democrats. Angry SJWs who Twitter away their lives and create new political media stars like AOC. Lastly, the racist nut job party of red hat dolts who follow their Orange god around because he makes libs cry..
Bystander,
Then I guess we need a bigger room, and more lethal weapons for them to play with.
We could get what we need if we turn the ATF from a federal agency into a store. Then we could go there to buy our Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms all in one place.
Paterson and Newark Light Rail . . .
Someone up thread asked who commutes between the two cities each day . . . I agree with Phoenix that the low-pay workers at the jail and airport do. In addition, there are a lot of people holding low-pay industrial and warehouse jobs that take public transport between the two cities (same with the City of Passaic and trips to both Paterson and Newark), in my experience. Of all the boondoggles that NJ politicians could get us into, I don’t think a $1B light rail is the worst (because I’d assume that the feds would pick up at least 25% of that?), even if it turns into $2B at the end of the day.
In my opinion, the biggest transportation-related upgrade that is sorely needed in the Paterson-Newark corridor is adding a lane to the Route 21 and Route 46 merge near Nash Park in Clifton. Always a tough traffic jam at that merge, and to me, they could build an extra lane over the river because the traffic and value of commuter time justifies extreme engineering , if necessary. It’s just a heavy-traffic junction where a bit of money can likely reduce a tremendous amount of traffic hours.
Stocks look to have a tough open due to new concerns over corona. Bond yields back down. Markets fearful now of slower growth. That inflation story ended quickly.
Railroad cars should travel like packets on the internet. Nothing makes the commute worse than stopping every 5 minutes, then waiting 5 minutes for people to board. They should design single cars that are self powered and automated.
Go do it Musk.
Crushed,
Good post. That def needs to be addressed. Thank god rt 3/46 is finally being addressed. That’s a god send for this area.
Part of the drop in the Ten is just short covering, but at some point we need to accept that maybe we have some serious stagnation that we are staring down. There is a ghost in the machine…… WTF is it?
“transitory” is looking like an apt description at 10AM this morning.
Libturd says:
July 8, 2021 at 8:56 am
In other news, looks like that interest rate drop in the ten year yesterday has spooked the market. My guess is that today is a big leg down, followed by a partial recovery in the afternoon. New highs next week.
Remember my post during peak inflation fear.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 11, 2021 at 10:08 pm
Pumpkins next big call…wait for it.
The world better get used to deflationary economic theories. Inflation is going to be a short blimp on the long term map. Being very scared of deflation. Thank the fed for pumping like it is.
Understand, the world population is peaking. Combined with extreme disruptive innovation, good luck with extreme inflation on the long term…
Seriously…get in ARk funds. Not going to find a better hedge against this future.
Autonomous taxis are the future. Tesla will pull it off. Only a matter of when, not if.
Phoenix says:
July 8, 2021 at 9:53 am
Railroad cars should travel like packets on the internet. Nothing makes the commute worse than stopping every 5 minutes, then waiting 5 minutes for people to board. They should design single cars that are self powered and automated.
Go do it Musk.
Fannie Latest housing survey a record 64 percent of people surveyed said this is the worst time to buy a house and 77 percent said its the best time to sell a house. A disconnect there between buyers and sellers. It will be interesting going forward.
Current generation was scarred by the housing crash. That’s why they are so cautious. That’s your supreme evidence that we are not in a bubble. These people are holding back out of fear that prices rose too fast. By next year, they will realize the prices aren’t dropping and will act on it.
3b says:
July 8, 2021 at 10:10 am
Fannie Latest housing survey a record 64 percent of people surveyed said this is the worst time to buy a house and 77 percent said its the best time to sell a house. A disconnect there between buyers and sellers. It will be interesting going forward.
In a Facebook post published on the Fourth of July, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) Utah chapter declared the American flag a hate symbol.
https://news.yahoo.com/black-lives-matter-utah-chapter-195007748.html
Right now, we are taking a breather. Try to shake the tree and see if you can buy from someone that thinks this is a bubble. Take advantage of their fear.
If they keep developing their techonlogy at their current, pace, we will have a nationwide robotaxi network by 2020!
They will become a reality, maybe not as fast as we want, but it’s inevitable. They could already drive themselves, it’s just that we are demanding absolute perfection in execution.
Tailwinds folks. Read my previous post the banks the Fed all said July. Well it’s July and the two pandemic stimulus bills from December and March were all front-loaded money which went out the door was spent and now you have to subtract that from future economic growth in the coming quarters, as the jobs numbers have not improved enough.
The rich were supposed to spurge to drive the economy. Well that has not happened entirely. Rich people hold trillions in pandemic savings, they are sitting on that cash rather than spend it. Excess savings just take a look at news about the cash being parked overnight in the Feds RRP facility.
Savings is a bad thing, we must spend spend spend. Just ask Europe as savings interest rates have been negative in Europe for eight years and they have now instituted a charge of .05% to hold large deposits of over $121,000 in Germany. The Germans are the biggest savers in Europe with about 2.5 Trillion in deposits and are being punished for the trillions they hold in savings. They have taken to open multiple bank accounts in several countries to keep their savings without the excess charges.
Fun times ahead especially if Congress drops they ball, Fed cannot do much more..
Drama much, left? The Dems have been behaving badly for decades? Two unfunded wars, and as a “libertarian” (wink), which party passed the worst assault on personal liberties called the Patriot act? Extra benefit that it armed local police to hilt and expanded govt with Homeland security Real core R principles at work. Middle america and their politicians could give a sh4t as long as they get farmer s*ialism and ever increasing military budget..cough jobs. Now is when I hear how Dumpy was changing all that..snicker
What you should be concerned about is how all those right wingers of 2000s that gave us the surveillance state are somehow now darlings of the left and the media while they continue to expand operations to deal with that supposed domestic terror threat that we all face.
Juice,
Exactly. That’s why real estate has zero chance of going down. Too much investor money not afraid to buy it for the passive income.
I mean if a bank is going to give you 1% on your money…why not just buy real estate, park your money there, and collect passive income. Appreciation is just icing on the cake as you most likely will never sell unless you see major appreciation.
I appreciate a well-run gubmint, not some
Dysfunctional shit pile filled with butt hurt southerners.
Pumps
What happens when you get a deadbeat tenant? Especially in NJ if the deadbeat has a kid in school. Will take a year or more to evict them, even before Covid.
EZ
When have we ever had a well run government? Maybe when Jefferson was president?
https://tenthamendmentcenter.com/2019/03/07/how-thomas-jefferson-handled-the-national-debt/
Passive income is for lazy people like teachers who want to sit on their azzez all day then complain they work too hard.
Real producers actually work. I would tax passive income at a much higher rate than W2 income if it were up to me.
That would help dry up the moist divot on the couch before the mold sets in.
“Will take a year or more to evict them, even before Covid.”
Its good. Then slimy landlords will put their houses up for sale so people can become homeowners and not have to rent from pumpy.
“I know you wanna live large like me
I got the big a** house and the SUV
I got the second house too, and the third house, three
And the place in Vermont, and one in Miami
Damn, I got five houses?
That’s a lot. Hmm, good for me.”
https://youtu.be/2hekDuCBxCc?t=129
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that condominiums in Florida are “kind of a dime a dozen, particularly in southern Florida,” but he would not commit to any state action to address concerns about the aging buildings, suggesting that Champlain Towers South “had problems from the start.”
Speaking after a briefing on Tropical Storm Elsa at the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, the governor would not say if he supports calls to require that aging buildings throughout the state be recertified to assure residents of their structural integrity in the wake of the deadly collapse of the 136-unit high rise in Surfside.
The building was going through its 40-year recertification process when it crumbled at about 1:20 a.m. on June 24. Experts say the tragedy has exposed weaknesses in the state’s building inspection process, and some state legislators, structural engineers and insurance agents have suggested that it’s time for the state to update laws that apply to coastal high rises.
“We obviously want to be able to identify why did this happen,’‘ DeSantis said. “Is this something that was unique to this building? Is it something that was unique to the person that maybe developed it — because obviously there are sister properties? Is it something that buildings of that age, that would have implications beyond that whether southern Florida or the entire state of Florida? I think we need to get those definitive answers.”
chi, yeah, everyone caught leaning to one side of the boat with leverage. With some foreign buying likely. Glanced at ten year paper from other sovereigns yesterday and was surprised how negative the yields remain. For me, stagnation is not the only risk I would suggest stagflation is. Happily, you are not the fool who measures inflation by the ten. He doesn’t realize that goods and services prices can go up while the air goes out of economy.
Bystander, don’t look to me to defend the Orange One. Since before he was nominated I’ve asserted he was a fool. Likewise, I’ve been very clear over the years that GHWB, GWB, McCain, Romney, etc are all pieces of sh1t….I would say they are just a different shade of grey than your (traditional) middle of the road Dem but in fact there was no color difference. So we are not in disagreement, you’ll have to find some RINO or Orangeade drinker to take your debate. You mistake me for someone else.
Can you STFU with your front running cherry picked nonsense?
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 8, 2021 at 10:13 am
Current generation was scarred by the housing crash. That’s why they are so cautious. That’s your supreme evidence that we are not in a bubble. These people are holding back out of fear that prices rose too fast. By next year, they will realize the prices aren’t dropping and will act on it
Gangbangers who shoot people in Times Square isn’t “domestic terrorism”?
It would have been classified as such if the perp was a white Trump supporter.
Let’s make fun of people who go deeply into debt for an Ivy liberal arts degree that won’t pay much:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/financially-hobbled-for-life-the-elite-masters-degrees-that-dont-pay-off-11625752773?mod=hp_lead_pos5
Around two-thirds of domestic students in the MFA film program take federal loans. The median debt for 2017 and 2018 graduates of Columbia’s film program who borrowed fell 5% from two years earlier but still topped $171,000, according to the latest federal debt figures, which combine the MFA and Master of Arts degrees.
Grant Bromley, 28, accumulated $115,000 in federal loans while getting his Master of Arts in film and media studies at Columbia. He had hoped to advance into academia after graduating in 2018. Instead, he moved back home with his parents in Knoxville, Tenn., for a year, taking a job at the TJ Maxx where he had worked as a teenager. He now works at a TJ Maxx near Chattanooga.
He is working on his third feature film in his spare time and credited Columbia for giving him the chance to pursue his passion.
For now, Mr. Bromley earns around $16 an hour and can’t afford to pay down his loan balance, which is $156,000, including undergraduate debt and interest. “It’s a number so large that it doesn’t necessarily feel real,” he said.
You get the Max for the minimum at TJ Maxx.
But maybe with hard work and luck in a few years he can become assistant department manager and make $17 an hour and secretly film himself working for a youtube documentary.
He should have went to Hollywood and became a waiter like the rest of them.
This morning I used a college board calculator to see how much aid we will get. And the answer is we zero. Meanwhile if my car was a human it would be a Freshman in high school and our other car needs to be replaced. And libs wonder how we got Trump and why there’s so much anger in this country.
Fortunately oldest kid is leaning towards community college for 2 years than going to a state school. Has no idea what he wants to do for a career and doesn’t want to spend over 25k a year to find out. (That’s what tuition and room and board at a state school is).
Beautifully put. NJ is not free. It’s one party bureaucratic run state. Elections don’t matter.
And sadly with the political climate that has been cultivated, with huge numbers on the dole, large #s of illegals, progressivism run amok, it’s going to get worse.
I only know of one person who retired in the past 10 years whose first move was not an exit, and the are chomping at the bit to get out. It’s the only choice left.
[i]Phoenix says:
July 7, 2021 at 1:04 pm
4th of July took a trip to the “Three States Monument” near Port Jervis.
As I stood near the monument all I could think about was how different the laws are on each side of it. Stand in PA, carry a pistol, stand in NJ or NY, get arrested for same thing. No preliminary hearing in NJ, but one in Pa. In New Jersey, the prosecution isn’t required to produce an expert to testify as to a person’s drug impairment, while Pennsylvania does place this requirement on the prosecution.
Amazing things can happen when you cross a state line. And as I drove there, I saw plenty of houses I liked and could afford. And then I thought to myself, no matter how beautiful the lot, the trees, the ponds, the landscape, they are all saddled with one thing. They are all in New Jersey.
That stink tops that the Chesterfield tar on the wallpaper, the burnt cabbage smell in the kitchen, the years of spilled Rheingold on the carpet, or the mold, cat pee, or anything else, cause that can all be remediated. But not the stink of NJ and its govt. It lasts forever.[/i]
Up to 4 inches of rain tonight and ground is already saturated, and potential for wind 39
to 57 mph + tornadoes…
Fun, make sure you have clean fuel for your generators..
$156k? He lives at home with his parents. He could easily chop that debt down to 100k in this environment where restaurants and diners are begging for workers while he lives at home. Instead, he’s calling up the media for a sob story. He’s got the typical loser mentality. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
Lib, stock writeup for you follows, in pieces, broken up due to those motherfcuking filters that send a post into the netherworld:
Take a peak at HZO if you get a chance, may be down your alley.
I’ve started legging into a trade there….earnings are around 7/22 so you may see some volatility. Otherwise, it kind of reminds me of the pool companies and, to a lesser degree, the outdoor companies both of which had nice runs.
Couple non-fundamental items of note….management is ‘family’ which I usually strongly dislike, however, the kid has been around for a couple decades. Management doesn’t have meaningful ownership, low single digits so interests aren’t necessarily aligned. Also, some large institutions have exited recently including GS. Lastly, the company does have a recently filed S3 shelf registration statement so you may see some securities issuance.
Juice: We are just finishing up a storm here now. Heavy rain wind and hail.
Bigger picture, you need the macro environment to cooperate…obviously a luxxury purchase so economy needs to stay intact and the company is small cap ($1B) so any wh0lesale market movement away from small cap value stocks may not only cause a share price decline but they may very well get 0rphaned since their market cap will contract.
Looking at the charts I see support lines at 42 to 46 and at 34, resistance around 64, and a recent break in a trend in place since covid (but not beneath 44).
Throwing all that in stew pot with fundamentals and valuation I’m inclined to do a defined risk trade going into earnings or at the very least write something against shares…you could write a 10/15 50C to bring cost into 42.20 right now for a tidy 18% return for 100 days with 8% downside protection, right at that lower band of resistance. Or go out further and higher to Jan 55s if you want more potential upside.
FWIW. All disclaimers apply.
Scum of the earth.
“Video shows a group of shoplifters running out of a Neiman Marcus in San Francisco, California’s Union Square. The individuals hop into multiple getaway cars and speed off. Police are investigating the incident.”
https://apple.news/ASHQJoobCQk-_-mFu1i9yqA
Just loaded up two cans 10 gallons of fresh gas, battened down the hatches, put away all yard toys, furniture, cushions etc and drained my pool a bit. Hopefully I don’t lose any trees but with high winds and the trees full of leaves it’s looks like there will be issues.
Yup, let’s blame the school and program for my debt. Loser talk. Do something about it.
BRT says:
July 8, 2021 at 2:25 pm
$156k? He lives at home with his parents. He could easily chop that debt down to 100k in this environment where restaurants and diners are begging for workers while he lives at home. Instead, he’s calling up the media for a sob story. He’s got the typical loser mentality. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
I think this storm is mostly rain. Winds should not be the story. 4-5 inches should fall in some places.
Left,
Will do my DD on your pick
“Will do my DD on your pick”
This came close to sounding dirty..
Sputnik V vaccination has begun in Slovakia. The announce of the Russian vaccine to the country was accompanied away a civic insinuation and led to the abdication of Prime Helpmate of the the religious ministry Igor Matovich and a overhaul of the government. As a culminate, the wilderness received the Russian vaccine, teeth of the items that neither the European regulator nor the WHO has furthermore approved it.
In neighboring Hungary, which approved the dislike of Sputnik in February as the beginning in Europe, more than 50% of the ripe natives has already been vaccinated; in Russia – a scant more than 10%. In Slovakia, five thousand people signed up in pad of the Sputnik vaccination.
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HZO fits my profile perfectly. As a matter of fact, I think I am going to buy some tomorrow.
It’s a very strong buy according to New Constructs, which is DCF model. Value Line likes them, and has them priced at $55-90 in the 3-5 year window, but with their 1.6 beta, $23-92 in the next 18 months.
The way I will buy this, due to the beta, is to creep in at this level. Basically, if the TriLam variant (or other) are kept at bay by the current vaccines and the FED doesn’t meddle too much with rates and QE, I would buy a lot more if price drops from here or increases in lockstep with the NYSE. If price increases quicker than market, then I would buy more, but not too much. If the FED monkeys around, I would bail at any price. This is truly undervalued based on a continued market rebound. The fact they are selling boats plays to the class benefitting the most and boats by nature are a bit Covid friendly as well. Nice find my friend.
My personal analysis says buy up to 67 and sell at 128 at current EPS growth rates. Current RV is 25.9!!! Even with my projected growth and PE expansion, projected P/E for next year would be 77 %. My compounded total annual return at peak P/E is 27.6% and at average P/E 19.9%.
PE Ratio Range, Past 5 Years
Minimum 4.397 Mar 23 2020
Maximum 23.74 Dec 09 2016
Average 13.65
PE Ratio Current 8.346
PS Ratio 0.5661
PEG Ratio 0.0413 <— WOW
Price to Book Value 1.943
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.299
Price 45.89
Earnings Yield 11.85%
PEGY Ratio 0.0413
Operating PE Ratio 6.238
Normalized PE Ratio 8.436
Due your own research. I did mine on my abacus
-Wall Street firms and institutional investors are pouring billions into single-family rentals.
-Many are focusing on build-to-rent houses as controversy surrounds the scarcity of existing homes.
-Pensions, sovereign funds, and others are flocking to SFRs for their solid returns.
See more stories on Insider’s business page.
https://apple.news/A5vLLrMYHTWOL9YAYvR7TsA
Dogs are being returned to shelters and adoption agencies in the U.S. after restrictions were lifted and people began to go back to work reut.rs/3jU0msF
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1413270420606701570?s=21
People are such POS’s…
Lib, happy to provide something that may work for you….gives me a (nervous) smile….glad for the find, nervous because you set the bar here on stock picks as your abacus is better than most.
I like roll-ups, which is a good part of their strategy and may provide upside surprises. Even better, they do it unlevered unlike most. Although I would never buy a stock for this reason I’m sitting here thinking ‘where are the private equity players’ given the low multiple, management without meaningful ownership, nascent expansion to higher margin services, and the ability to better utilize the balance sheet.
Before I go in with meaningful cash I’m going to try harder to figure out why a couple good small cap value funds pulled the plug. Will post if I find anything.
The Justice Department backed out last week of a proposed settlement with the National Association of Realtors to take a fresh look at the notoriously high commissions consumers pay real-estate agents. The move sent shock waves through the housing industry. The government occasionally brings an antitrust case and later decides to dismiss it. But never have federal antitrust authorities agreed to a proposed settlement only to back out after receiving public comment.
The real-estate lobby called the move “an unprecedented breach.” But there’s a much larger concern for legacy brokers than the novelty of the about-face. The signal from Washington is that antitrust enforcers are prepared to dismantle the collusive practices that burden U.S. homeowners with brokerage costs two to three times as high as in the rest of the developed world.
As authorities prepare a fresh inquiry, they should give close scrutiny to the bizarre way Americans pay real-estate agents. Unlike any other business, when a homeowner decides to sell, he must agree to pay two agents—his and the buyer’s. It’s a one-of-a-kind arrangement. The buyer agent is supposedly representing the buyer, yet is compensated by the seller. In other agency businesses, each client pays his own agent. If you want a white-shoe law firm to represent you, you can pay for one. But a local practitioner may do just as well, and clients have that option as well. The result is real price competition.
Real estate, by contrast, has a third-party payment system, which produces predictably inflated prices. Many home buyers would pay a lot less than 2.5% to 3% of the price of the home, the standard rate for buyer agents. Last year, 97% of buyers started their home search online, without the assistance of an agent.
Increasingly, home buyers are finding their next home first, and then contacting an agent second. But buyer agent fees can still be as high as $15,000 on the purchase of a $500,000 home because the buyer doesn’t set the price of his agent. The seller does, and he’s pressured to pay to the hilt.
A training manual from one of the nation’s largest brokers lays it all out. It advises agents representing sellers to tell their clients to offer 2.5% to 3% to buyer agents. After all, “if an agent has 10 different houses, nine of which come with a 3% commission, one of which comes with a 2.5% commission, which one do you think they’re going to show?” YouTube contains dozens more videos of similar training from other brokers and real-estate coaches. It’s the way the industry operates and the principal reason real-estate commissions remain at pre-internet levels while transaction costs have hit the floor across the rest of the service economy.
The industry lobby has two defenses for the mandatory commission rules it established decades ago and continues to enforce. The first is that the arrangement has been around so long. But there’s no easement under federal antitrust law for long-running violations. And unlike other current targets of antitrust scrutiny, holding the real-estate industry accountable requires no departure from the well-established consumer-welfare standard. Industry rules have created the most obvious consumer welfare harm—nosebleed prices.
Fans of the outmoded commission structure also claim there’s solace in the fact that it’s the seller who pays the agent fees because at least the buyer doesn’t have to pay. That defies logic. When a home is sold, it’s the buyer who pays. What industry defenders are really saying is that buyers have the privilege of borrowing more money to pay for homes because the inflated cost of agent services are baked into the sale price.
The pandemic real-estate economy has been tough on aspiring home buyers. But help may be on the way.
Mr. Toth is general counsel of REX, a digital real estate startup based in Austin, Texas, which submitted a public comment recommending that the Justice Department back out of the settlement.
The word now is radicalized. So many people feel pushed to the edge and are pushing back. Go to social-media sites and search “school board meeting” adding descriptors like “explosive,” “outrage” and “chaos.” Parents are rising up. New York Democrats just picked an anticrime former cop as their mayoral nominee. Other signs that suggests a spirit of having been radicalized: Longtime alliances based on natural affinity are loosening. Conserva-tives by nature support and respect the military. That’s changing among some of them, or at least becoming less reflexive, under the pressure of charges of political correctness and a woke brass. Conservatives have begun detaching from traditional support for corpora-tions over the idea they’re too woke, too big, and feel no particular loyalty to America, which made them, when the China market beckons.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-culture-war-is-a-leftist-offensive-11625784024?st=6xu9j4jmgm8r00d&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Could this be the beginning of a slow descent for China instead of the rise everyone fears? I just am at odds to find a country whose economy rises when the man in charge puts more and more under his control. They don’t go together. Why work so hard if it can taken away? Musing
https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1413273843641225217?s=21
That’s the paradox of competent authoritarian societies, especially totalitarian ones. They can have success quickly but then what? People don’t tolerate the bs anymore. Look at the so called Soviet miracle, Nazi miracle, Franco miracle.
https://twitter.com/phoenixlion1982/status/1413296137579089922?s=21
EZ now pumpkin – that’ll do
More woke nonsense. The word exotic is now racist and xenophobic
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9770147/Washington-Post-food-writer-sparks-backlash-saying-foreign-food-not-called-exotic.html#article-9770147