From Redfin:
Home Sales Fell 6% in August, the First Annual Decline in 15 Months
However, home prices were up 16%, and new listings posted their first year-over-year decline since February, which could signal a tightening market.
The median price of homes sold in August was $380,271, up 16% from a year earlier, the lowest growth rate since February. August marked the 13th consecutive month of double-digit price gains.
“When it comes to home prices in this market, what goes up stays up,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “That’s especially true in the Sun Belt; home prices are up more than 20% from last year in Austin and Phoenix. Even with these steep increases, homes in these areas are still relatively affordable, so these and other hot migration destinations are going to continue to attract homebuyers from the coasts. As workers change jobs en masse and enhanced unemployment benefits come to an end, we could see even more households relocate for affordability in the coming months.”
Median sale prices increased from a year earlier in all but two of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks: Milwaukee, WI (-1.6%) and Bridgeport, CT (-1.1%). It is worth noting that both of these metro areas had already seen significant price gains a year ago, with prices up 14% and 30% respectively in August of 2020, compared to a 11% gain nationally. So they may have overheated last year, and prices have moderated since, leading to a slight decline in the latest data.
The largest price increases in August 2021 were in Austin, TX (+36%), followed by Phoenix (+25%) and Salt Lake City (+24%).
Seasonally-adjusted home sales in August were down 6% from a year earlier, the first annual decline in 15 months. They were also down 1.4% from July. Compared to August 2020, home sales fell in 44 of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks. The biggest sales declines were seen in New Orleans (-23%), Salt Lake City (-16%) and Warren, MI (-14%). The largest gains were in places where sales were still somewhat depressed in August 2020, including New York (+65%), Honolulu(+47%), and Nassau County, NY (+32%).
Frist
Foist!
Looks like PFE has some positive data out this morning for the 5-11 age group vax.
Like we’ve been talking about here, they’ve dialed the dosage back substantially, from 30mcg to 10mcg.
A must watch.
https://youtu.be/kaUemcqIQ-k?t=4611
The Myocarditis risk from the vaccines was estimated to be one in 5000 for the older kids age 16-17.
There were no cases of myocarditis in this trial of the 5-11 age group. Perhaps the lower dose will reduce occurrences of heart inflammation and other symptoms after taking the first and second shot of the MRNA vaccines.
And this is where you find they are all the same. The constitution is just a worthless piece of paper that the people in charge refuse to adhere to, but that the individuals of the country think it’s golden. It’s all a farce.
https://youtu.be/kaUemcqIQ-k?t=5998
Retired Gen. Michael Hayden needed to get some things off his chest about the current presidential campaign.
Hayden, the Pittsburgh native who served as director of the CIA under former President George W. Bush and director of the National Security Agency, released a video late Tuesday which boiled down to, “I’m supporting Joe Biden. Biden is a good man. Donald Trump is not.”
Grim’s hooch is the best vaccine of all. 200ml per day should protect you from all your fears.
Another lie by another general. It’s what America is about.
https://youtu.be/rs2iN0oVdt4?t=251
And the Obama lie. So we know that Bush lied, Obama lied, Trump lied, and Biden lied.
Awesome.
https://youtu.be/rs2iN0oVdt4?t=570
Most therapies side effects are minimized or eliminated with proper dosing. It’s nice to see some rationality here.
DOW futures looking good.
Wonder if we see a dial back in dosage for 12-15, formal approval is still pending. I assume there must be data on this.
Ed – re: futures
China is busy tackling wealth inequality. Same thing the commies here want to do as well. Should end well as we can all be poor together.
Buy the Evergrande dip today or is this a real bear?
Right now, the market says there is contagion risk. Surely, any chastening of Chinese property buyers has global implications – basic materials, construction equipment, shipping to China, etc., nevermind the potential for bigger doomsday-financial-counterparty-contagion. If 25% of the Chinese GDP ($15T) is real estate-related, then at $3.5T, the Chinese real estate industry represents 4% of the global $85T gdp.
On the other hand, in theory, the West’s business interests have had 18 months of a blood red flag to decouple from China in their supply chains, vendor relationships and even in financing. Furthermore, of course, for 15 years before covid, going all-in on China was always putting yourself at the mercy of a state where the government is essentially all-powerful and always had the capability to wipe out your investements on a whim.
For my EM exposure, I have preferred XCEM over VWO due to the China exposure in the latter. I suppose the last few months, this preferencee has been rewarded by the market.
Crushed it’s more of a sell to whom question now. In China home sales by value fell 19.7% year-on-year in August. China’s government has repeated the mantra that “homes are for living in, not for speculation”…
You mention construction materials.. They are now bartering with their suppliers….
“Shares in Skshu Paint Co., an Evergrande supplier, are down 31% in the last three months. The company said earlier this month that Evergrande had settled unpaid bills worth about $34 million by giving it three unfinished property projects, which were based in Hubei province and in the southern city of Shenzhen.”
Should end well they make take a page from our book and their central bank can bail them out with the push of a button and buy up debt from the state run banks…
The investors? Well they get wiped out….and there will be no dissent. Harmony must be maintained after all.
A nice war between China and America would solve the financial problems of both countries. Plutonium showers eliminate all traces of Covid. No vaccine required.
What is old is new again.
Biden’s DOJ, after the NAR to rein in agreements that prevent commission negotiation, and listing issues that may sometimes prevent non MLS listings from being marketed etc.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/realtors-face-federal-scrutiny-of-broker-commissions-11632135601?mod=hp_lead_pos7
The only thing Chinese I invest in directly is delicious General Tso’s Chicken.
I highly doubt this is going to have any extended bull market killing power. Now if it spreads to other sectors, all bets are off.
“China’s government has repeated the mantra that “homes are for living in, not for speculation”
Words you will never hear from the American Government. And more words you will never hear-
“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
It’s more like: Stay away, we are building a wall to keep you out (Republican) and should you be hiding under a bridge, we will rope you like cattle and fly you back to where you came from.(Democrat)
All the same. Good cop, Bad cop.
“The only thing Chinese I invest in directly is delicious General Tso’s Chicken.”
That’s a dish that’s designed to increase your BMI by 30 percent.
Baseball, Apple Pie, Chevrolet. Now that’s American, right??
Well, baseball has now been moved to China. Chevrolet has been there as well.
Guess we are left with apple pie. If the Chinese Spotted Lanternflies don’t destroy all of the apples..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2018/12/07/chinese-to-own-rights-to-major-league-baseballs-most-popular-bats-and-gloves/?sh=2e0be9d96e06
Wonder if we see a dial back in dosage for 12-15, formal approval is still pending. I assume there must be data on this.
For that age group, the data seems to point to 1 shot being fine, 2 questionable.
General Tso’s Chicken.”
First the Chinese give you Covid, then they fatten you up to make sure it is more likely to kill you.
Hahaha. Creative aren’t they.
Juice,
Some poverty would do us good. Kind of tired of Fed ensuring James Bottomtooth the Third types getting more boats and yachts without taking any risks while the lower class burns. Someone posted this which sums it up:
2009: 7.25
2010: 7.25
2011: 7.25
2012: 7.25
2013: 7.25
2014: 7.25
..2021: 7.25
Total wealth increase by billionaires in one year 2020-2021: 5T to 13T
BRT,
Do you have any formal medical training? Just curious.
“Some poverty would do us good.”
I’ve got some. Would you like it? Any takers?
If you stayed exclusively S&P 500 over global anything, you have crushed any other asset class over the course of many of the last few years.
It is not rocket science. By happenstance, the S&P 500 is the one major market index the skews heavily large cap growth, and you gets pulled up in the halo of that.
Don’t get cute with Chairman Xi. He will fcuking you.
Bystander – “without taking any risks” and the “lower class burns”
A bit dramatic no?
The investor class takes risk with their money that creates many many many jobs for the middle and lower classes. That could be something as simple as opening a restaurant or creating as big as a tech or other startup company. It all requires private capital. You think a bank is going to give you a loan for a startup business? They don’t take that kind of risk ever.
We have classes because we are not commies. If you want to no classes to exist well find a place that really does and let me know when you find it.
“The investor class takes risk with their money that creates many many many jobs for the middle and lower classes.”
Like investing in robots that replace fast food workers and cashiers.
“China is busy tackling wealth inequality. Same thing the commies here want to do as well. Should end well as we can all be poor together.”
Except for those in the permanent political class here…..
“China’s government has repeated the mantra that “homes are for living in, not for speculation”…”
Sad when totalitarian commies are more clear eyed than our elected leaders.
Juice,
I guess I just see things less between communism and capitalism. If we are printing trillions to provide businesses with capital to exist then you have state capitalism which is no better than communism. The feature of captiliasm is work hard and take risk and could hit big rewards. We now have tons of zombie companies with no revenue or business model simply taking govt loans and trying to get IPO due puffed up Fed liquidity creating (perceived) risk-free investment. Public debt is what sinks a system, not whether it was communist or capitalist. Classes always exist in every system. There were Russian millionaries during communism. History knows that.
“China’s government has repeated the mantra that “homes are for living in, not for speculation”…”
If we could only get that message through to American women. Nothing gives both them and pumpy the big “O” other than home ownership.
You mean like the 200 Billion dollars owed to the retirees of NJ?
“Public debt is what sinks a system, not whether it was communist or capitalist.”
somewhere along the line, it became politically unacceptable for us to enter recession. It’s led us to this point. By is right, our capitalistic system that existed prior to 1960 is a bastardized version of it at this point.
“That’s a dish that’s designed to increase your BMI by 30 percent.”
I don’t ever order General Tso’s anymore. It just fit the quote well. I am much more of an Egg Foo Young, Chow Fun or Mei Fun kind of guy. Not a big fan of the super saucy (corn starch and sugar-laden) dishes.
Good for you Lib. Want you to live long enough to get to Costa Rica :)
Now here is a funny one, from Texas:
Kara Bell took the lectern at the Lake Travis Independent School District board meeting on Wednesday to discuss a book in the middle school libraries
She said the book, Out of Darkness by Ashley Hope Perez, contained a scene describing anal sex and including inappropriate language
On one page, she said the book reads: ‘Put it in her coin box, put it in her cornhole, grab a hold of that braid, rub that Calico’
Bell, a former school board candidate, said she does not want her children to learn about anal sex
Sorry, Miss Bell,
Hate to tell you, but they probably have known about it a long time ago unless their father was Ted Kaczynski and off the grid completely.
Link. Rome is on fire.
https://bit.ly/39ohfoI
Phoenix
Too bad Kara’s parents didn’t add an N to end of her name.
Phoenix – That book is about a child who is abused by her stepfather, there are way worse paragraphs in that book, yet this person chose to focus on her a*hole phobia.
Not surprised however people have been trying to ban books even ones like the The Catcher in the Rye for over 60 years. Even the left gets upset about words too.. Tipper Gore did not want her children hearing the song Darling Nikki from Prince and started a holy war against music….That song was nothing compared to the lyrics in music today.
Gator works in the publishing industry. You have no idea how close we are to burning books in the Land of the Free.
I would say that the printed books are irrelevant. Pulling books from school libraries is pissing in the wind. Every kid walks around with a smart phone with instant access to everything. They could not stop kids sexting and don’t even bother with it anymore. How they heck can they censor anything these days. It is nearly impossible to do so, unless we go full on internet censorship like China…
My kid told me about the latest tiktok crazy yesterday.. the bathroom challenge..
Stealing stuff from the bathrooms vandalism etc. His school had to have people monitor the bathrooms etc…
A quick google search shows schools all over the country getting wrecked, and parents are worried about books!!! lol
Devious licks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGIVRKQ8hBk
Juice
Didn’t know that. Just knew that Kara “N” was blowing it out of proportion no matter what.
HMB haha.
The comments on that article are hilarious.
Crushed, on Evergrande it really depends on the material support the CCP gives. If they prop up housing markets to a significant extent containment is possible. China is very insular and there markets are still very closed to international companies, big issue comes if real estate market crashes and the Chinese start pulling their money back. The CCP has signaled through the propaganda a few weeks ago, they intend to feel some pain, they will not prop up the housing market. They have blamed western debauchery almost in advance for the coming economic crash. Evergrande’s 300bn is owed to Chinese state owned banks, nothing prevents the CCP from printing, in many ways it is easier for them to prop things us than in the west. The problem is there is growing unrest over the housing situation in China. I think this is an ominous sign, I think the Chinese realize they have been playing games with their economy and the chickens are coming home to roost. We could be entering a phase of global recession, the likes of which we last saw in the 1930’s, China being hit the hardest because they have grown at an unsustainable rate.
Haven’t had a market day like this in a while. My AGG is performing as expected. Sorry it’s only 20% of my portfolio. Wonder how ARKK is doing today? Down 4%? Now that’s disruptive!
Juice
Sinks, towel dispensers, hand dryers have been stolen out of the bathrooms at my kids schools. Supposedly even water fountains in the hallways have been stolen. I don’t get it. There are also 3 or 4 cops in each high school and at least 1 in each middle school. Maybe they should stop surfing the web and watch the cctv tapes and figure out who’s walking into the bathrooms with an empty backpack or nothing in their hands and then walking out with a full bag.
Phoenix, no. I was involved in pharma applications on the research side. I worked with drug-protein interactions for Janssen’s (maker of the J&J vaccine) HIV drugs prior to them being approved. I’ve also done a lot of work on drug delivery systems like the lipid nanoparticles used in the mRNA vaccines. I was basically hybrid biochemist, chemist, physicist, biophysicist. So I’m well in tune with how viruses, proteins, and drugs work at the molecular level.
Supposedly, there was some rally at the Capital Building in DC this past weekend except the only thing I saw in pictures were scores of storm trooper-looking dudes like a scene out of Star Wars. I think they should take all those barriers, blockades, barbed wire and concrete obstacles and move them to the southern border, where 15,000 illegals aliens and counting are streaming in… there’s no use in encapsulating the Capital Building when no one is there.
12:33? Moronic
That was some rally. Another populism fail. One by one the party sinks further and further.
“Mike Lindell meets Alabama secretary of state for discussion on 2020 election”
“Mike Lindell held a 3-day telethon called ‘Take Back What The Devil Stole From You’ to sell pillows with televangelist Jim Bakker”
And you think AOC and her followers are strange?
BRT,
So you are a real life Walter White minus the meth production. Cool. 😎
HMB,
The police are too busy trying to hook up with The young school teachers.
A millionaire in New Jersey is a teacher and a cop.
The benefits for public servants in NJ are outstanding. It pays to be either of those professions in the Garden State. It does keep people in their jobs knowing they do about as well as they will anywhere in NJ.
Lib- My Pillow guy does not represent NY citizens in Congress.
And it seems AOC does not represent their wishes either as the most support for Israel comes from NY Democrats. I doubt Chuck Schumer supports her latest action. Her latest amendment introduced Friday is to cut off arms shipments to Israel. Specifically the Boeing JDAMs used to demolish buildings, that was approved by Biden himself in May.
https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/OCASNY_070_xml210915124303632.pdf
Who says BRT does not cook? He claims to be quite the chef, even grows his own stash.
Phoenix there are whole communities of those NJ millionaires in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania etc.
Amazing the amount of anti- Semitism in DC, and the Dems remain silent
And the teachers hooking up with their students! They arrested another one in Fairlawn last week.
People always asked me about Walter White. I had to explain to them making it is easy, purifying it is where the skill lies. But even that’s not hard once you’ve been past 2nd year chem.
My wife knew someone that used the waste products in their reactions to make it and sell it.
Phoenix
The teachers look more like al bundy’s customers. None look remotely like this
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ0wZOFuba4
Will be interesting to see the Robin Hood reaction to their first correction!
Don’t trust young bald guys. Strictly anecdotal but they seem to be more narcissistic than . Also in my opinion any guy that goes into state or national parks to hike and is barefoot or wearing flip flops is a doosh.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10008971/Police-slammed-letting-person-slip-away-likely-remains-Gabby-Petito-found.html#article-10008971
Lib, I’m up marginally today…helped that last week was a home run (TY SRNG/DNA) so I decided to protect some gains late that afternoon with a very tight SPY put spread…that returned 3x on the position today…..even without that though I would have only been down less than 1/10th of 1%….my airlines did well, JBLU and LUV.
Hey remember when the Dumpy spent trillions more and Dems decided US should not default on debt because they are the adults in the room? So long ago..
“Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt”
Morgan Stanley expecting stock correction of 20 percent.
Illegal apartments and manslaughter for flooding deaths . . .
Obviously, in NJ, it is a very dangerous business practice to have an illegal apartment because of the 6x rent penalty, plus relocation costs and attorneys’ fees, etc.
Anyone aware of a landlord facing manslaughter for a fire or flooding death in an illegal apartment. I ask, because I was expecting to find some news/journalistic chatter about pending charges or whatever following Hurricane Ida and all those basement deaths, but the only article mentioning it is linked below. The article merely advocates for such charges, without commenting on whether prosecutors are actually bringing them.
https://nypost.com/2021/09/06/flooding-of-illegal-units-belies-progressives-self-righteous-claims/
3:29 wait, Lib seems on the level …. !
File under getting old suuuuucks:
https://pagesix.com/2021/09/20/frail-phil-collins-begins-genesis-farewell-tour-in-birmingham/
Can someone sum up for me what the deal is with this missing girl getting so much press?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/education/2021/09/nj-school-districts-report-hundreds-of-covid-cases-why-state-figures-seem-much-lower.html%3foutputType=amp
You know the answer.
Can someone sum up for me what the deal is with this missing girl getting so much press
I daily an M3….if i ever complain, smack me.
Yeah, buddy!!
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
The streets of New Orleans after Hurricane Ida: ‘Trash everywhere’ and a ‘revolting’ stench
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/20/new-orleans-hurricane-ida-garbage-stench/5787262001/
Loving this new apple ios 15. So much easier with safari bar at the thumb.
9:15 I’d hate that in any kind of snow and ice.
Ex,
RWD with an LSD. Add in some snow tires and its some of the most fun you can have with your clothes on.
Google to Buy New York City Office Building for $2.1 Billion
Manhattan deal is priciest sale of a U.S. office building since pandemic began
https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-buy-new-york-city-office-building-for-2-1-billion-11632225600?st=wx0pj0abyy4crof&reflink=article_copyURL_share
They just started offering the M3 in awd this year.
Snows only get you so far on hills. That and the salt damage
driving through the winter. Shudder!
Pumps – NOT SO FAST! This was a Pre-Pandemic deal signed by Google in 2019. Oxford and a Canadian Pension had a 52.9% ownership when the deal was signed in 2019. Google already had the rest as they were paying upfront to develop the property, the intention was to buy them out all along…
I would love to know what the haircut was…
Grim – Here is the explanation. Racism….
“Well, the answer actually has a name: Missing White Woman Syndrome – the term coined by the late and great Gwen Ifill to describe the media and public fascination with missing White women like Laci Peterson or Natalee Holloway, while ignoring cases involving people of colour,” the host of ReidOut on MSNBC said.”
Recommended
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/joy-reid-gabby-petito-missing-b1923868.html
What horse-hockey about shopping early for Christmas..as there will be a shortage of stuff the buy..
“There appears to be no sailing around the breathtaking backup of container ships off the jammed ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Newly-arriving vessels are adding to a record-breaking flotilla waiting to unload cargo that on Sunday reached 73 ships, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California, nearly double the number a month ago and expanding a fleet that has become a stark sign of the disruptions and delays roiling global supply chains.
Before the pandemic, it was unusual for more than one ship to wait for a berth.
Big vessels are continuing to join the bottleneck, experts say, because shipping lines and their cargo customers have few options for resetting countless supply chains moving goods into the U.S. that have been constructed over decades around the critical San Pedro Bay gateway now staggered by the overflowing demand for imports.”
“The congestion this year has been caused by a surge in imports as consumer demand in the U.S. has shifted away from services to goods and home improvements and retailers have rushed to restock inventories that were depleted last year in the early months of the pandemic.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-container-ships-cant-sail-around-the-california-ports-bottleneck-11632216603?mod=hp_lista_pos3
The guy looked short too. Maybe 5’7”. Napoleon syndrome coupled with cue ball can really fcuk with a skinny little white guy.
Hold my beer says:
September 20, 2021 at 3:29 pm
Don’t trust young bald guys. Strictly anecdotal but they seem to be more narcissistic than . Also in my opinion any guy that goes into state or national parks to hike and is barefoot or wearing flip flops is a doosh.
I saw Texas had their test case for the new abhorrent abortion law.
How many progressive psycho women around the country are pissed to miss out on their chance at history. I just assumed countless millennial snowflakes went to sp3em bank and used the turkey baster to knock themselves up with the intention of traveling to Texas to get an abortion. Kind of an abortovacation. Go to the Alamo and scrape the uterus, get your 15 minutes of fame. All the best laid plans for naught.
They were high school sweethearts from Long Island folks, his parents moved to Florida and he followed and was working in a Juice Bar for a living. Seems they decided like many people to skip the real world of jobs and careers and they tried to become social media stars. From the looks of it they did not get the Instagram followers needed to monetize their journey. I would think they were low on funds and too many nights had to be spent sleeping in tents etc.
Ex, you underestimate blizzaks. I live on top of a steep hill, my wife’s rear wheel drive car triggers traction control in the rain sometimes. With the snow tires it can generally make it up the roads and the driveway. My mom’s 4matic actually seems to have more problems in the snow with it’s all seasons than the rwd car with the blizzaks. In Jersey it snows relatively infrequently(typically only Jan and Feb sometimes a rare spring storm in mar or apr) so it’s not a huge deal although I agree the aggressive salting eats cars, Jersey cars are almost as rusty as midwest or upstate cars. In the alps RWD cars(you see lots of BMW 320d) with snow tires are common, more common than AWD and the roads and weather are far more challenging than NJ.
It’s the narcissist who do this type of thing. In this case apparently unfounded narcissism. We all know people who peaked in high school. It’s not a pretty thing. The Al Bundy’s of the world.
I do snow tires over AWD. Much less to break on car, much cheaper to service, allows me the use of better summer tires (since most all-season tires kind of suck for summer and winter driving) and find snow tires grip better than AWD in these parts.
I can’t stand road salt. Sand would be a much better solution or just stick with brine. I had to replace the pipes on my Civic five times over the 20 years I owned it. It was very low to the ground so road salt killed it. It also prematurely ages tie rods, upper and lower ball joints, struts and is environmentally damaging. Finally, there is no doubt the reason they over salt is to keep the construction crews happy with their constant need to rebuild the poured cement medians that are absolutely wrecked by road salt. Same with the walls in the overpasses. It literally took them over a year to rebuild three miles of center median on the GSP from 142 to 145. Thirty minutes of my day is dedicated to sitting in the traffic that this project caused. Then a year later, they ripped it up to put in additional storm sewage and the extra lane at the exit 145 entrance and exit which will do nothing to alleviate the daily traffic as selfish ghetto asholes will continue to wait for the last minute to exit holding up all four lanes of highway waiting for the respectful law abiders to let them in. There is an accident every single day there as many times the good guys choose not to let the asholes in to the detriment of their cars.
Though all that is left to do to open up this section which has been under construction for three years now is to repaint the lines. My best bet is this won’t happen until October.
I told this story a few years back about an elevated highway in Chennai. When I landed, there the road was little more than scaffolding, much made of tree limbs. There was little power equipment being used besides the cement mixers. The cement for the road was being passed up the wooden scaffolding Chinese fire drill style and the road was being poured by hand. When I returned to the airport not even one month later, we took this new road.
America #1.
From Adventures in Capitalism blog (Harris Kupperman), his take is energy inflation pricks it – NG prices climbing.
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/09/20/when-the-levee-breaks/
To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. To the Federal Reserve, every problem is met with more liquidity. Unfortunately, the Fed has very little control of where this liquidity goes. First, it went into equity markets, fueling an outright equity bubble. Then it overflowed into PE and VC, creating bubblicious demons there as well. Then it overflowed into meme stonks and shit-coins. Not content with the damage they wrought on the financial economy, the liquidity began overflowing into the real economy. There’s currently an epic housing bubble, leading to increasing wealth inequality and polarization.
Now, this liquidity is overflowing into the everyday economy—assuming you can even find the item you seek. In the past, only hard money weirdos complained about the gradual creep of inflation—now everyone feels it and has their own story. Everyone is painfully aware that inflation is present and is likely to stay.
JC, two easy ways to deal with snow and ice, Audi & Subaru. Best AWD systems on the market and if you have to buy snows, and you probably already know this but TireRack will ship to your door and even mount and ship them on steel wheels.
TireRack and Firestone are dirt cheap together. I’m not sure how they can afford to mount them for so little.
So, what kind of an impact will higher interest rates have on $2 trillion in excess housing demand?
A home worth $375,000 at today’s record-low interest rates of 2.8% would result in around $100,000 of interest to be paid over a 30 year period, making the total dollar price for the purchase closer to $475,000. If interest rates were to jump to 6%, add an additional $100,000, making the total about $575,000. Further, if the rate rises to 8%, the total costs jump to $675,000.
As you read this, you may be thinking, “Yikes! I hate paying interest!” and understand why rising interest rates slow buyers from buying. However, to put things into perspective, since the pandemic started, median home prices have increased over $50,000 and haven’t shown signs of stopping.
That $50,000 rise in real estate prices is comparable to interest rates going up and nothing happening. Demand is just too high. If a buyer had to choose between a lower interest rate with a $50,000 more expensive home or a $50,000 lower purchase price coupled with a higher interest rate, they would ultimately be indifferent because they are still accumulating the same total cost.
This means that if the Fed were to do something as crazy as dump $2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, sucking cash dry and sending interest rates soaring to 5%, 6% or 8%, we’d still have $2 trillion dollars in excess demand still looking to buy homes at higher interest rates.
Some potential home buyers might give up for now and continue living with their parents or with friends, but even if half of the housing demand disappears, we still wouldn’t have enough homes to meet demand. Ultimately, even if the Fed reduces the money supply and increases interest rates, don’t expect it to stop prices from increasing and lines forming at open houses across the country.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2021/09/21/will-rising-interest-rates-burst-the-housing-bubble/?sh=2ef841522281
Salt on the roads makes me cringe. It sucks for the environment, infrastructure, and our cars.
That AWD M3 has my eye, but it’s tough, don’t want to give up the raw feel of this last f80 M3 with DCT tranny.
Like this article describes: “It’ll try and kill you every time you drive it.” So much fun.
https://www.carthrottle.com/post/5-reasons-well-remember-the-f80-as-the-best-m3-ever/
“JC, two easy ways to deal with snow and ice, Audi & Subaru. Best AWD systems on the market and if you have to buy snows, and you probably already know this but TireRack will ship to your door and even mount and ship them on steel wheels.”
Best way to deal with snow and ice, just WORK FROM HOME!
Pumpy,
Run for Mayor of Wayne, and pass a law to make it a salt free town.
“Amazon lobbies government to federally legalize weed after it relaxed its drug testing as part of huge recruitment drive”
You have to be high to try and keep up with the rates and pace that Bezos expects. That’s why he want’s everyone medicated that works there.
Salt on the roads makes me cringe. It sucks for the environment, infrastructure, and our cars.
Really? Because you kept making excuses for Murphy doing it when it was 45 degrees out.
BRT,
I was the one thanking all the complainers who were angry at Murphy for not throwing enough down. Every storm after that he made these people happy by dumping loads and loads of salt. Thank you, complainers! Good job!
Can someone sum up for me what the deal is with this missing girl getting so much press?
The purpose is to distract the muppets from the disaster that is the O’Biden administration. The press dictates our outrage toward a specific subject. There’s no children in cages or Kavanaugh-type issues and it’s difficult to keep the DJT deranged syndrome going unless you masturba.te to Stephen Colbert. So, the media deflects accordingly.
Dude, f subaru and audi, both are somehow less reliable than land rover, I don’t know how. I have a 14 year old land rover with off road tires, I bought a new TDV6 range rover a few years ago but I had so many issues with it LRNA bought it back a full refund after 27 months. But it had big 21in all seasons and my wife didn’t think it was great in the snow she preferred the old Land Rover in the snow, she even managed to get stuck in VT, she was convinced the onld one would have made it through. The old one is like a goat it will climb my drive way with 6in of un-shoveled snow and some how has never stranded me in 14 years which for a british car is somewhat miraculous, Ford>TATA.
Eddie, I agree. The media is trying to distract from other things going on. There has been quite a bit of financial news that would be unsettling what better than a missing blonde chick to distract the masses. I don’t know it it’s Biden though, I’m thinking it’s the impending Chinese economic malaise and the fed making plans for US debt defaults, they should not say these things out loud even if they are contemplating it.
I was the one thanking all the complainers who were angry at Murphy for not throwing enough down. Every storm after that he made these people happy by dumping loads and loads of salt. Thank you, complainers! Good job!
Two wrongs don’t make a right, maybe you and Murphy should learn that
The midwest is a unique animal. It can be below 32 for weeks at a time. The amount of salt and corrosion is weapons grade…….
JCer says:
September 21, 2021 at 10:08 am
In Jersey it snows relatively infrequently(typically only Jan and Feb sometimes a rare spring storm in mar or apr) so it’s not a huge deal although I agree the aggressive salting eats cars, Jersey cars are almost as rusty as midwest or upstate cars.
Wow, a pretty white girl disappeared and media is focused on it. Completely new thing..wow even Faux news is covering up for Joe being obsessed with story. The conspiracy goes even further…why Faux? Why?
You forgot to add Chi that in the midwest, a 14″ snow fall means school delayed 45 min. When I moved here I read only about 35″ snow annually so I thought great, easy peasy winter. I need 4wd here more than when I lived in flyover. NJ snow removal is comical, but pizza and bagels much better.
JC, new, what is your ideal snow vehicle of choice? Jeep isnt reliable but in snow, a complete beast. Honda awd is marginal in snow, toyota too but both safe and reliable. Acura SHAWD?
I’ll deal with snow and ice by working from Florida during the cooler months.
I have a 2014 A6 in NJ, a 2018 Q7 that shuttles between NJ and FL, and a 2021 Q5 that stays permanently in FL.
So far no major problems to blame Audi for.
The biggest headache over the past years is NJ deers jumping in front of cars, rocks getting thrown by commercial vehicles and cracking two windshields (an expensive replacement because of the sensors that have to be calibrated), and NJ’s crappy roads with potholes leading to tire damage and replacement.
Pretty girls getting killed always gets a lot of viewers, and now, clicks.
It’s entertainment for the masses.
I think I clicked onto the bait once, just to find out what it’s about.
Can they turn the trial into a circus?
Then eventually a miniseries on Netflix?
But a remake of The Fountainhead is deemed to controversial. They’d probably mess it up anyway.
Pumkin,
We have transitioned away from using “tranny” as a nickname for transmissions for obvious reasons.
Her disappearance is also big news overseas as well.
But a remake of The Fountainhead is deemed to controversial.
Why? Because a guy believes in his own vision and rejects collective ideas? Oh wait.. I think I just answered my own question. Liberals hate individual thought, it weakens their hold on the muppets.
“The midwest is a unique animal. It can be below 32 for weeks at a time. The amount of salt and corrosion is weapons grade…….”
Funny thing about salt, if it’s too cold it’s useless, you get the chemical melt but it re-freezes immediately. It’s why a lot of really cold locales use sand…it just all mixes into a frozen track with some friction…area I grew up after multiple snowstorms the county roads would never make it down to the pavement no matter how much plowing…no problem, sand trucks come around frequently and pile layers on….by mid-winter you end up driving on what looks like a white/grey sandy riverbed lol. No pavement in sight.
I’ve never taken any performance car out in the winter, too hard on the mechanicals. Hell, my 911 has rarely seen rain…only on a few occasions when I’ve taken it on longer trips and inevitably during that time frame some rain had to fall.
Take it in the rain ☔ you have to clean it.
lol, yeah, and it’s black. no more black cars for me going forward…..
I am very familiar with Blizzak tires, we stuck them on an RX7 vert we had when we lived in Chicago. Very cool tires for snow and ice. I have had these discussions with people occasionally and it usually comes down to personal preference. I really trust and like AWD systems for family cars. Of course for a sports car and a fair weather car it should be rear wheel drive. Over the years I have had Subarus, Volvos, and BMWs and they all make a decent system although I think the Subarus are far more nimble in the heavy stuff. The real trouble comes from the havoc that the elements inflict on the undercarriage of the cars. Corrosion and decay. One nice thing I can say about the weather here is that it preserves cars really well. I see a lot of people driving their older cars here and most are free from rust of any kind.
I was stopped at a light on 46 east and a car going 40mph rear ended a car four cars behind me. By the time the wave got to me it was only capable of bumper damage.
I am with Geico and the woman who failed to stop is also with Geico.
It’s been 19 months since the accident and Geico keeps telling me, “processing of your property damage claim has been delayed because we are pending all parties demands in order to review and issue payments for this claim.”
If my car was severely damaged (as was the case with both cars behind me) I would be upset if no money came for over a year.
I don’t make insurance claims often. Is this normal? Why is one party allowed to hold up this entire process?
11:36
The BMW M3 Reliability Rating is 2.0 out of 5.0, which ranks it 29th out of 31 for luxury midsize cars. The average annual repair cost is $1,161 which means it has poor ownership costs. Repairs are more frequent and more likely to be severe than the average car, which means you can expect more major repairs for the M3.
This seems consistent with the old e46 I’ve ‘restored’ and poured money into. Something tells me everything on the car will eventually break or disintegrate eventually. Man alive they are fun to drive when they are running though.
The best car for snow is probably either Lexus LX or GX/Toyota 4runner or land cruiser, not too many are making body on frame SUV’s anymore with locking differentials plus the modern computerized traction control systems. Jeep is great in the snow but they are mechanically suspect. Land Rover has great traction control but 21/22 in low profile all seasons are a problem in the snow, a new defender with the steelies and off road tires will do fine if it doesn’t break down. Pretty much most automakers now have competent AWD systems, the deficiency is the tires. You could go buy a honda, ford, toyota, gmc, hyundai, etc. for the most part these systems are mostly made by magna and be totally fine in jersey. In the snow belt you need snow tires.
Believe it or not jersey cars look so bad because it’s warmer here. The salt is more corrosive in the warmer more humid air, at 15 degrees it does less damage. That is why in VT a lot of folks with a garage park their car outside when the roads are salty.
Makes sense, I remember the bad old days when every car rusted to hell. Seems like with the zinc treatments it has gotten a bit better. I always used to try to flush the underside with soapy water after a big melt.
Ex,
When I first moved to Los Angeles in 99, I also noticed how old cars were all in perfect condition. Also, people with show cars actually took them out for rides.
I had Blizzaks and they were great. Then I got Pirelli Scorpions (on sale, or it wouldn’t have ever happened) and these things are crazy grippy. Even on hard ice.
Minnesota, no salt. All sand. You drive a 4wd truck in the winter or nothing at all.
I see cars from the 80s and 90s that look extremely well-preserved. The only caveat is if they sit in the sun as that can really work the surface paint over badly.
3b says:
September 17, 2021 at 11:29 am
“It will be exactly the reverse mostly WFH and 1 to 2 days in the office…”
I know I’m digging up old comments, but this caught my eye because it reminded me that sometimes (rarely) individual politicians make crucial, difficult decisions that are absolutely correct, despite the criticisms of the moment. In this specific case, I thought that Christie made the right call even at the time, to not put NJ taxpayers on the hook for cost overruns for the ARC project/tunnel. But can you imagine if this project had actually proceeded and we were now in the midst of a $15 billion+ plus project that may never be needed due to WFH — with NJ tax payers on the hook for every single dollar over budget!
Boomer – No way. That should be been settled ASAP.
It’s supposed to be 45 calendar days to settle your third party claim. However since it’s the same insurance it should have been quicker!
I would get on the horn and go all KAREN and ask for the MANAGER!
Section 8 on the state website..
https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/ins_ombudsman/wysk2.htm#8
The F80 is the most reliable m3 model ever. It’s built like a bullet. That’s why i bought it. It’s the reliability of a civic in a high performance car. So it makes it an awesome daily. It def is expensive to own, but what do you expect…it’s an engineering marvel…M class is no joke and rides a premium cost.
Ex says:
September 21, 2021 at 3:37 pm
11:36
The BMW M3 Reliability Rating is 2.0 out of 5.0, which ranks it 29th out of 31 for luxury midsize cars. The average annual repair cost is $1,161 which means it has poor ownership costs. Repairs are more frequent and more likely to be severe than the average car, which means you can expect more major repairs for the M3.
This seems consistent with the old e46 I’ve ‘restored’ and poured money into. Something tells me everything on the car will eventually break or disintegrate eventually. Man alive they are fun to drive when they are running though.
Nothing I enjoyed more than taking my WRX out in fresh snow late at night.
What a pleasure that was, driving zen of sliding through a corner nearly silent because of the snow. State of emergency? Where are the keys?
Yeah yeah, reckless I know, shame on me. That was really a guilty pleasure though. Deeper the better.
I imagine doing the same in an EV has got to be wild, simply because of how eerily quiet it would be. The little Honda got EV afforded zero driving pleasure in this situation. Roller skate with nonstop front wheel spin.
In Jersey if you get a scratch on your car it will develop a light coating of surface rust within a few days…Out west Arizona or So CaL..etc 10 years later no rust
One summer out in San Diego, I drove out with one of my professors to buy a 914.
We cruised up and down the PCH, through La Jolla, all around campus. That car was in impeccable condition, never seen a 914 that clean before.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/
“It’s the reliability of a civic in a high performance car.”
The hits just keep on coming….who in their right mind describes a German sedan in this manner, lol…..
“In Jersey if you get a scratch on your car it will develop a light coating of surface rust within a few days…Out west Arizona or So CaL..etc 10 years later no rust.”
This summer crushed me…July/Aug, felt like Alabama to me….I need a climate like the last few days….
“I see cars from the 80s and 90s that look extremely well-preserved.”
60s and 70s too…..find an original Mustang convertible from that era with a big block I’ll be on a plane with a nice finders fee…..
Sounds like a nice trip Grim. I was always drawn to Cali, even married a girl from there..We just celebrated 13 years.
Have fun folks and spend it all, won’t be long before you are your mum or dad….
7:56 I drove a 2.0L 76 914 for several years. Was pristine.
Tended to get a lot of surface rust – unibody design.
Had the motor rebuilt one summer and drove that car from St Pete, to Poland ME, then to Chicago and back. Drove like a go cart.
The scenery out in CA is insane. Like nothing I have ever encountered.
Throwback pics of my 914: https://imgur.com/gallery/7MzglS5
left, he is smoking something. A BMW reliable like a civic! That is something never uttered by anyone. Older BMW’s are certainly solid well designed and built cars which is something we cannot say for modern BMW’s, but they have never been reliable. You will not see the latest generation cars truly get old as they put literally tons of plastic in the engines. BMW’s leak period, I drive an old Land Rover and I certainly know it’s not a Toyota, it is far more likely to break because of various British-isms and the repair cost will likely be eye watering. You aren’t buying one of these things to practical, but pumps has full on cognitive dissonance to justify his purchases.