From Fortune:
How much 2022 home prices are forecast to shift in each of America’s 100 largest markets
It’s official: The rate of U.S. home price growth is finally beginning to decelerate after 16 consecutive months of price acceleration.
That deceleration could be the start of a bigger cooldown. At least that’s what Realtor.com, a real estate listing site owned by News Corp., is forecasting. By the end of 2022, the site is predicting U.S. home values will climb just 2.9% as rising mortgage rates take some steam out of the market. That would represent both the smallest annual uptick since 2012 and also a big-time slowdown from the 19.5% U.S. home price jump posted in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from September 2020 to September 2021.
That said, buyers and sellers alike shouldn’t necessarily expect Realtor.com’s forecast of 2.9% home price growth in their local market. Separate from its national forecast figure, Realtor.com also modeled predictions for year-over-year home price changes in the nation’s 100 largest housing markets. Those projected growth rates vary from 10% in Portland, Maine, to 0.2% in Honolulu. The former represents a bullish market that would look a lot like the 2021 frenzied landscape, while the latter would be a margin of error away from seeing prices fall.
Joining Maine’s largest city in the bullish camp are markets like Providence, R.I. (forecast to jump 9.5%); Salt Lake City (8.5%); Worcester, Mass. (8.2%); Boise (7.9%); Palm Bay, Fla. (7.9%); Stockton, Calif. (7.8%); Spokane, Wash. (7.7%); Boston (7.5%); and Seattle (7.5%) rounding out the top 10. Many of these markets, like Boise and Portland, have seen an inflow of remote workers during the pandemic looking to escape high-cost markets like San Jose. That trend, Realtor.com says, is likely to continue to shake up the market in 2022.
NY Metro forecast at 2.3%
Too bad about that whole coup thing for Trump.
Wonder if he’ll be punished? Aside from having
be Trump. I mean real legal punishment. Being Trump
has actually gotta suck. He’s human excrement.
Holy shit, taking the train into work for the first time in a loooooong time… parking lot is empty!!
Nobody rolls in so early when they do hybrid.
Get there around 9:30-10:30 or so.
You are a hero for just making it in.
I’m a rookie covid commuter and too dedicated to my London clients… trying to get to them before their day wanes. But see, if I was home right now, I’d be on with one of them. ;) My 10 hour work day is now 8 hours today.
Overkill
https://bit.ly/3mpdt5J
I’m seeing subdivisions of rental homes being built in my area. Getting marketed as luxury single family home rentals. Another trend is new houses for sale are being built so close together you could almost stick your arm out the window and shake your neighbors arm through his window. Looks like California housing. And these houses start in the 600s to live across the street from a high school.
Just wait until Tesla drivers get life in prison for traffic fatalities in autonomous self driving mode.
Like I said years ago, the problem isn’t technology, it’s who is liable. The success or failure of this technology is largely going to be defined by legal precedent.
Shocked there isn’t more of a focus on sequencing to report omicron spread in the US.
The fact that we’ve only reported 150 detected cases seems absurdly low to me at this point.
Denmark and Norway reporting that omicron will overtake delta to be the dominant strain within the next week.
My 2yo is done with preschool for the rest of the year. NJ now requires 14 days QT. He was exposed last Friday (yet we only found out today). See you in January.
Wayne superintendent sent an email yesterday warning of needing to close schools and go virtual due to staff shortages. Wayne’s got 36 staff out this week alone. Buses also a problem – one kid on a bus means everyone on the bus QTs, as well as losing a driver.
Some anecdotes from Washington State – from LAST week:
Researchers at the University of Washington found that 13 percent of 217 positive coronavirus case specimens collected on Wednesday had the mutation. That was up from about 7 percent of samples they had tested from the day before, and 3 percent from the day before that — in a region that had its first identified cases only two weeks ago.
And here we got NJ saying we have “2 cases”.
Meanwhile, we reported a spike on 12/9-12/10 that exceeded the highest daily rate from LAST SPRING, back when only a tiny portion of the population was vaccinated.
So my school last reported 24 cases. Just based on the emails I’m getting, we’ll be up to 50 or 60 by the end of the week. The students here are nearly 100% vaccinated.
We’ll see BRT.
I find it incredibly unlikely that any school in NJ is near 100% vaccine compliant. I only say this because I know that for the regular regiment of vaccines that everyone is required to have to attend schools the number in Glen Ridge (which is not terribly progressive) was 93%. That’s an awful lot of religious exemptions when there is not a single religion that prohibits vaccinations.
But yes, the numbers do seem out of line with what one would expect from a vaccinated group.
So to simplify, for adults, the vaccines makes sense to keep you from dying (and mostly out of hospitals) if you do get covid. Even if it does not prevent you from getting covid. And where we differ in opinion is what we’ve read about the effect that the vaccine has on viral transmission.
For kids, you weren’t going to die anyway, but the only real reason to get vaccinated would be if it helps reduce the viral transmission, if it really does, as not to spread covid to older family members or others in the community.
The only other consideration is weighing any long-term side effects of the vaccine. The amount of short-term issues is concerning (myocarditis), but not killing anyone. Hopefully the 1 in 16 teens that get it don’t suffer long-term consequences from it.
For kids, the data from Israel showed that 1 shot was 100% effective at preventing hospitalization. The reality is, we should consider recovery from infection or 1 shot full vaxxed for a kid as nearly all the problems have arisen from a second shot.
Lib, with respect to the town I teach in, I think we have the highest vax rate in the state.
Hype stocks still on the decline. Shorting has been fun these past weeks. Gonna be real fun when the indexes go as well.
Dedicated to grim – Road Warrior:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBg26lj9fAk
Case update, 24 is now 32 and climbing. I think the chances are 100% I’m breathing today.
Sharing this because he gets it…These high growth stocks are so oversold it’s insane. Doesn’t mean it goes up anytime soon, but just shows you how irrational the market is.
guy says- But due to today’s indiscriminate bloodbath I finally bought $ARKK @92.92 $ARKG $ARKW $ARKF for the first time, just because they are down so much and it doesn’t make any sense at all today. The sky is not falling yet despite what Michael Burry says about the mother of all crashes.
Reply given-It doesn’t make sense that spectacularly overvalued speculative stocks are declining to a point where they are only seriously overvalued?
guy replies back- I’ve been in the market since before 1987 crash, right before I graduated from college. I have survived in the market for a very long time because I partly ignored valuation. Back when I was doing my MBA in (Behavioral) Finance I learned about P/E ratio, right before they changed to P/S ratio during the dotcom boom. Metrics do not matter for growth stocks, it hasn’t mattered since the dotcom bust. Yes, stock crashes many many times allegedly due to “extremely high valuation”, Schiller index and other metrics but I honestly believe it was merely a reversion to mean. As such, I won’t throw the word “overvalued” relatively easily in this week’s route. This has always been a game, albeit not entirely a zero sum game. I realize and admit I have been in the market just like a small fish nibbling among the larger sharks. Maybe a bad analogy but that’s the best I can do on a late Sunday night. Good luck to all of us who managed to stay afloat in this crazy market of stocks.
They aren’t oversold if you look at a 2 year chart. Many of them could still be classified as overbought. You are operating on the assumption that the peak price Dec of last year was based on any sort of rationality in the market.
Forget valuations.
Forget retiring.
We don’t know how many people the vaccines are killing. If it’s affecting people with healthy hearts you better believe it’s killing people with weakened hearts. The data shows increased deaths among vaccinated though it’s not conclusive.
Schools are all itching to go full remote but the door hasn’t been opened. Too much political blowback or they would be doing it now.
Goat. Nice evidenced based rant there. Last I read, the myocarditis thing isn’t happening at all anymore. Original British evidence was flawed. But go on and tell me what else Tucker said.
Pumps. Did you pay attention? Look at the calendar. Tax law changes in 2022. Tons are looking to book cap gains in 2021. Everything in the world is green. Tax loss selling in full force. Review technicals and look at levels.
I told you if it didn’t push through 108 and hold it then stay the fcuk away.
The “interim” low is in here somewhere but bear in mind the S&P 500 just posted an all-time high. Face it. You were snookered. Get over it and move on.
No you got the wrong guy. Haven’t seen tucker in weeks.
Berenson studied the uk data. FDA is covering up not tracking here so you can’t get reliable data. Dude spent goes career following pharma cover ups. He knows we’re to look.
Deaths were up the uk among the vaccinated. Red flag. Maybe people aren’t getting elective stuff done or maybe the shot is killing some.
But keep on getting your info from cnn and Sanjay Gupta. It’s not like they’ve ever carried on a multi year fabricated false narrative.
Hold my beer at 7:47 . . .
The large homebuilders (DHI, LEN, TOL, etc) and the regional competitors that build similar housing are all facing the same consumer sentiment and pricing constraints when building a new single-family subdivision:
People will pay for a big house, but they won’t pay for big land.
That’s why the TX standard for new construction is a huge house on a relatively small lot. It will be interesting to see if tastes change on this issue, though. I like touring the new construction subdivisions and new construction condo buildings to see what the state of the art is in the new housing market.
Myocarditis is happening. The Ontario Public Health released great data on it. Long story short, spacing them 2 weeks apart from each other is ill advised. Moreover, Moderna is the primary culprit, which is why most European countries have halted the use on that for people under age 30, especially males. This is the way public health is supposed to work, mitigating and minimizing adverse events.
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-myocarditis-pericarditis-vaccines-epi.pdf?sc_lang=en
Pumpkin at 10:52 . . .
So, what has your position been in ARKK over the last few months? How many months worth of “DCA” positions have you actually bought?
I believe that the sequence has been something like this:
Early 2021: ARKK to the moon. I’m buying $3k worth per month, as a DCA strategy. (ARKK price = ~$140/share)
Two months later: ARKK is going down so I will wait to buy more ARKK until after it has fallen enough. (~$120/share)
Mid-2021: Rather than ARKK, I am buying BTC. But, ARKK is still good. Innovation is king. (~$120/share)
Dec. 2021: ARKK is so undervalued, but I am waiting until it hits $82/share before I buy some. (~$90/share)
Original article re 2.9% price growth in national housing market price. . .
Recently, I either saw some headline written somewhere or heard in passing on Bloomberg radio or similar, that used car prices have finally begun to drop a bit.
If housing price appreciation is also slowing down, then maybe it is a sign that some of these supply chain and covid-related price dislocations are ending.
Crushed: Are you saying there is a relationship between supply chain and housing prices?
The ARK Invest monthly call is today at 1:30PM and will feature Cathie Wood doing a song and a dance- anything to distract from the losses and redemptions.
Thanks.
Chicago says:
December 14, 2021 at 11:41 am
Pumps. Did you pay attention? Look at the calendar. Tax law changes in 2022. Tons are looking to book cap gains in 2021. Everything in the world is green. Tax loss selling in full force. Review technicals and look at levels.
I told you if it didn’t push through 108 and hold it then stay the fcuk away.
The “interim” low is in here somewhere but bear in mind the S&P 500 just posted an all-time high. Face it. You were snookered. Get over it and move on.
Yea, I haven’t been catching a falling a knife the whole year. So did wait and just nibbled here and there on my dollar cost avg strategy (didn’t buy 3,000 worth)while sitting on cash or putting it in bitcoin and solano. Made my first big purchase earlier in the month, but only bought arkg as it was beat down the most. Still waiting to buy into the others, just waiting for down trend to ease. Then will continue with dollar cost avg strategy at 3,000 a month.
crushednjmillenial says:
December 14, 2021 at 11:56 am
Pumpkin at 10:52 . . .
So, what has your position been in ARKK over the last few months? How many months worth of “DCA” positions have you actually bought?
I believe that the sequence has been something like this:
Early 2021: ARKK to the moon. I’m buying $3k worth per month, as a DCA strategy. (ARKK price = ~$140/share)
Two months later: ARKK is going down so I will wait to buy more ARKK until after it has fallen enough. (~$120/share)
Mid-2021: Rather than ARKK, I am buying BTC. But, ARKK is still good. Innovation is king. (~$120/share)
Dec. 2021: ARKK is so undervalued, but I am waiting until it hits $82/share before I buy some. (~$90/share)
Yea, I’m pretty sure inflation already peaked. We will see.
“If housing price appreciation is also slowing down, then maybe it is a sign that some of these supply chain and covid-related price dislocations are ending.”
I see inflation has peaked and I’ll raise you my monthly gas bill at the multi has increased from $130 per month to $170 per month. Of course, with the rent freeze, I have to cover the shortage.
I can’t stand this trend in home building. Give me the yard. Will never understand why people buy this. Haven’t they learned from Staten Island. Good for the developer as they maximize housing profit.
“That’s why the TX standard for new construction is a huge house on a relatively small lot. It will be interesting to see if tastes change on this issue, though. I like touring the new construction subdivisions and new construction condo buildings to see what the state of the art is in the new housing market.”
Lib,
Prices are here to stay, but the velocity of inflation is not. It’s not sustainable. Most of it came from overburdened supply chains.
Yea, I haven’t been catching a falling a knife the whole year. So did wait and just nibbled here and there on my dollar cost avg strategy (didn’t buy 3,000 worth)while sitting on cash or putting it in bitcoin and solano. Made my first big purchase earlier in the month, but only bought arkg as it was beat down the most. Still waiting to buy into the others, just waiting for down trend to ease. Then will continue with dollar cost avg strategy at 3,000 a month.
No, what you’ve been saying all year is, “you can’t time this market, it doesn’t matter when I buy, 5 year time horizon, etc….” Not once did you ever claim you were waiting 11 months to get involved. Now all of the sudden, nearly a year later, you are claiming, you actually didn’t buy.
Like I said, I actually believe you didn’t buy, because you’d be freaking out about your account balance if you followed your own advice all year. Remember, just thank you wife she didn’t let you tap into your home equity to bet the house.
” Now all of the sudden, nearly a year later, you are claiming, you actually didn’t buy.”
Why should this surprise you. His lies precede him. Remember, he was once a financial advisor. He’s like a troll with no motive.
UK analysis in @Nature today finding more cases/million of myocarditis after 2nd dose Moderna vax than after COVID-19 infection in those <40
From other studies, we would expect this to be even more pronounced for males <25.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0
The smart people on this blog would be better off agreeing with him and validating his great investment strategies. That would kill Blumpy. His self-doubt would drive him bonkers. He comes here with bad thoughts and ideas, looking for validation. People are too nice and offer him sound advice unfortunately.
Why should this surprise you. His lies precede him. Remember, he was once a financial advisor. He’s like a troll with no motive.
I can only thank him. It required me to look into all kinds of garbage in those funds and find things with tremendous downside to short. It also clued me into the idea that the first dominoes of the market started collapsing earlier this year. Now I’m watching the others fall in real time.
Lib Myocarditis is happening and our public health apparatus is engaged in a cover up, there have been a handful of people who have had severe heart problems caused by the vaccine. The medical establishment is not fully reporting to VAERS, we have a friend who had an adverse reaction to the Pfizer vaccine, she works in a public health system in NYC, she told us her case was not reported to VAERS and it should have been and lots of other incidents are not being reported.
Under no circumstances in the last 6 months or so has the vaccine prevented transmission, the affinity of the antibodies to the delta variant is low, the antibody levels start to wane after 2 weeks and the other immune response is not sufficient in people who were vaccinated vs. recovered patients. It will only get worse with Omicron. The prior exposure helps your body more quickly adapt new antibodies to the virus, that is why there is a lower instance of hospitalization and death among the vaccinated. At this point boosters and vaccines should be focused on the at risk population you will not stem the spread by vaccinating children but you can prevent deaths and hospitalizations.
That’s why I don’t come round these parts much anymore. No longer enjoyable.
I didn’t put in full buys, but I was still buying. You can’t time the market. It’s impossible. Most gains are made in one or two days each year. True story.
I still love ark funds for what they are. A long term tool to invest in disruptive tech without having to pick risky individual stocks on your own. I have full faith in it performing long term. I am still sticking to the plan. This year was not normal because it obviously ran up too much last year. I just didn’t expect it to still be going down now at these prices, but I guess between the short attacks and the tax loss selling, it’s continuing its downtrend. It can’t last much longer.
“No, what you’ve been saying all year is, “you can’t time this market, it doesn’t matter when I buy, 5 year time horizon, etc….” Not once did you ever claim you were waiting 11 months to get involved. Now all of the sudden, nearly a year later, you are claiming, you actually didn’t buy.
Like I said, I actually believe you didn’t buy, because you’d be freaking out about your account balance if you followed your own advice all year. Remember, just thank you wife she didn’t let you tap into your home equity to bet the house.”
Lying? Wtf?
So crushed put together that entire post based on my posts here, but I’m lying.
I did buy, why else would I care about ark. I just didn’t buy at 3,000 a clip every month because get this, I listened to people like chi, and cut back. Doesn’t mean I don’t love ark, doesn’t mean I haven’t been buying, it just means I was cautious in my approach.
Libturd says:
December 14, 2021 at 1:20 pm
” Now all of the sudden, nearly a year later, you are claiming, you actually didn’t buy.”
Why should this surprise you. His lies precede him. Remember, he was once a financial advisor. He’s like a troll with no motive.
Cathie Wood is defensive on today’s call. Refuses to acknowledge that there is a bubble in “innovation space” and declares them in “deep bubble territory” (?). Talking up TSLA and Bitcoin as both drop again. Blaming adverse market moves on “quantitative trading strategies” acting on inflation worries and dumping “high value” stocks. She says deflation caused by innovation is bigger risk than inflation. Points to DNA sequencing and AI training costs going down (perhaps she should try buying a house?). Also disintermediation – had to look that word up. Repeatedly uses the term “disruptive innovation” and claims this will have exponential growth over the next decade. For her innovation space portfolios, she expects a minimum of 15% and possibly 40% average returns each year over next 5 years. Time will tell.
Dollar,
Instead of bashing her, people should open up their mind to what she is saying. Deflation is the real enemy and it’s obvious.
She is correct, her stocks are getting destroyed on inflation fears. Entire market moved out of them except for long term holders. Rest of market is shorting these type of stocks and will lose it all whenever it switches coarse. Remember, most of the gains for stocks are made in 1 or 2 days on any given year.
I think she nails it. No way in hell are high growth stocks in the bubble. It already deflated this entire year. Where is the deep bubble….look at apple. It’s in all the stocks and sectors that they piled in when selling their high growth positions. Only a matter of time before they correct. S%P500 is being carried by a small minority of stocks. 75% are in the red, yet, we are still at all time highs. What does that tell you?
I rather have my money in beaten down high growth stocks that no one wants right now instead of piling into the so called “safe” stocks that are a hedge against inflation.
“Refuses to acknowledge that there is a bubble in “innovation space” and declares them in “deep bubble territory” (?).”
At the end of the day, like chi points out, this has been a profit taking year in high growth stocks. Plain and simple.
I actually know a lot about AI training costs.
They are not necessarily going down, they are going offshore in a big way as AI training is being outsourced opposed to being done on-shore.
The irony of this all was that AI/ML was supposed to create new jobs for Americans who saw their jobs dislocated by automation. In reality, it’s just outsourcing the development and work necessary to outsource their jobs.
Yet no one says a word, keep on pumping our tax dollars to these un-patriotic US corps(e) with no strings attached. Continue failed trickle-on / piss down economics that hit Americans with vapor splash while execs walk away with billions.
Bystander: Young people get screwed again! They all suck every last one of them.
Grim,
Between tech innovation and the slowing world population growth, I just don’t see how inflation is something to worry about. It’s not sustainable alone with a drastically slowing world population, now throw disruptive tech into it…it’s fked. Deflation is coming unless the fed can somehow keep inflation going.
“Young people get screwed again! They all suck every last one of them.”
Which is why I’ve been bitching non-stop for years about how the only class to make any significant gains continues to be the tippy top .1%. But don’t you dare tax them more or it will all collapse. Right.
Lib: I have no problem taxing them more. Lots of other things o would do too.
End is near?
“Seeing some mildly encouraging signs here as we approach the close, but be careful. Fednesday is going to be an event volatility driver. Swings (either way) are likely to be exaggerated.”
Pumps. You gotta learn to ignore everything anyone says for free, and most of what these so called experts you pay to listen to say. I stopped watching Bloomberg/CNBC decades ago. Though the former wasn’t nearly as bad as Kramer and his cronies who spend all day touting whatever advertisers pay them to.
I got most of my education from ValueLine and from my investment clubs continuing education in fundamental analysis.
You will learn less than zero from any of them.
Read some of the books from the old-timers. All you need to know is in there.
Don’t tell me how things have changed. I hear that before every major crash. There’s a good reason they call it a “correction.”
There’s still things in the ARKK portfolio that didn’t crash. Those are the things I’m short right now or looking to short right now. I still wouldn’t touch any stock she holds as outflows from her fund will drive them down even further.
I’ll simplify. Everything you see on social media or the financial news networks is meant to manipulate the market. Raging Bull is even worse as are 99% of the forums.
Remember, if any of these experts could predict the market, they wouldn’t need your money for their salary. This is sage advice which you will surely ignore.
Don’t forget to benchmark your results.
Lib,
I agree, but at the same time, you have to listen to the psychology of the market. Not for advice, but the emotion in the market.
Right now, all the short term retail and all value experts hate cathie with a passion. So much so, they created a short etf to mock arkk. So everyone and their mother is mocking/hating her and high growth stocks. All say the same damn thing, that this is 1999 all over. You think everyone and their mother is going to be correct longterm about cathie and growth stocks? No way. All that immense hate is the market psychology going to work creating opportunities by obsessively driving it down to ridiculous levels just like these same individuals blew up the high growth sector to insane levels. It works both ways. Up to you, the individual, to play that herd to your advantage.
In short, you can cry the sky is falling and be a sucker, or you can take advantage by buying what the herd doesn’t desire at this given time.
Am I correct? I don’t have a crystal ball, but i have seen what happens with these individuals. The same thing happens with the housing market, but the housing market doesn’t swing like the stock market.
Past summer, everyone and their mother were calling market top on housing. That was a clear signal to me that the housing market will be much higher this summer. That’s why I was the only person on this blog calling for higher housing prices this past summer.
Wtf is Musk doing? He better be careful. Don’t do a trump and antagonize them. They will never stop coming for him. Thought that he was smarter than this.
“It’s called being too responsible, all to get to the vote and to get to another hearing,” Menendez said.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/12/menendez-slips-fractures-shoulder-in-rush-to-get-to-us-senate-floor-for-vote.html
Omicron shuts down Cornell with over 200 new cases.
BRT said:
“UK analysis in @Nature today finding more cases/million of myocarditis after 2nd dose Moderna vax than after COVID-19 infection in those <40"
You misread the abstract. It says 1-6 cases/million after first dose (depending on which vaccine) and 10 cases per million after second dose, vs 40 cases per million after covid infection.
In other words, covid is about 2-4 times more likely to cause myocarditis than 2 vax doses.
Lying Pumpkin,
Like I stated once before you are nothing but a lying TROLL. Annoying people and acting like an idiot. The irony is your a NJ teacher instructing our students…pathetic.
One of best years in the stock market and you basically lost money, I am up over $145,000.00 in real dollars buying stocks like Micron, AMD, Lowes, GBTC, Nokia, Coin and General Electric among others. Stick with Cathie, she is doing fine for herself.
On a side note I also sold real estate for a net profit of 670,000.00 this year. Yea baby boomers are idiots according to Lying Pumpkin , but it looks like we are a lot smarter than you.
zPjybGcFECDlK
Oh I see… reading thru the paper -15 cases for second dose Moderna, vs 10 for covid in the under 40 crowd.
Maybe that crowd should stick with Pfizer…
In other words, covid is about 2-4 times more likely to cause myocarditis than 2 vax doses.
I didn’t say anything about Covid causing myocarditis or the comparison of rates. Moreover, that was a tweet from somebody. I was just relaying information. That being said, many cardiologists are saying that the myocarditis they see from the vaccine is much more pronounced in intensity than the myocarditis they see from covid.
Yes, Pfizer is definitely the safer of the two by the numbers for that age cohort. I just took another test. There is no question that I was breathing virus in the past few days as I have approximately 3 students confirmed positive in each class. My immunity seems to be holding up just fine as usual. I am going to get an antibody test out of curiousity.
Negative again. I’ve been mildly sick for 3 days and the cases are literally exploding at school. We keep getting updates and watch the dashboard for our school like a stock ticker. Basically, there was likely transmission in just about every class last week. Most kids are opting for no contact tracing because they are vaxxed so we are likely only capturing a few cases.
The numbers seem to be the same at elementary and middle school as well. Here’s the kicker. The elementary kids all likely got both of their shots recently. I’m not sure if their shots were within the window of vulnerability before vaccine is supposed to kick in.
Diamond and Moretti have spent four years putting together and crunching an enormous data set that dives into the day-to-day finances of 3 million American households. These households are spread out across the country, from concrete jungles on the coasts, to small towns in the heartland, to everywhere in between. Diamond and Moretti got information on these households’ bank account deposits and withdrawals, as well as their credit and debit card spending. This allowed them to see how much people earn, how much they spend and what they buy. “We can see essentially every transaction that a household makes in the course of a year,” Moretti says.
With their treasure trove of data, Diamond and Moretti constructed a cost-of-living index that paints a vivid picture of prices and typical consumption patterns throughout the United States. Unsurprisingly, the most expensive area in the country is the commuting zone around San Jose, Calif., aka Silicon Valley. The most affordable area in the U.S. is the commuting zone around Natchez, Mississippi. Combining this index with data on people’s incomes, Diamond and Moretti were able to compare and contrast the material standards of living across the U.S., not just in each place, but for different types of workers.
There’s obviously much more to the value of living in a place than simply the size of your paycheck minus the cost of stuff you buy. Like the cultural scene, the opportunities for your kids, the crime rate, the quality of schools and bars, the proximity to hiking trails or surfing spots and so on. So it’s worth stressing that when we refer to “standard of living,” we’re talking only about average income minus taxes and expenses. This cold calculation misses a lot of the intangible and priceless stuff that can make a place cool. Also, this data is from 2014, and a lot might have changed since then, especially with the coronavirus pandemic.
Nonetheless, Diamond and Moretti worked over four years to create a never-before-seen snapshot of Americans’ finances. And we were curious: If you are, generally speaking, a nonremote worker who wants to live in an area that offers the best balance between average income possibilities and cost of living, what are the best and worst places in the U.S.?
Workers with a college degree
It’s no secret that “superstar” cities such as New York and San Francisco have an obscene cost of living. Housing is way more expensive. So are things like haircuts, energy, coffee, restaurant meals and groceries.
Nonetheless, according to Diamond and Moretti’s data, the average salary of college graduates in places like New York and San Francisco more than makes up the difference.
“The big, overall takeaway for college graduates is that expensive cities like New York and San Francisco remain a pretty good deal,” Moretti says. Sure, they’re obnoxiously expensive. But educated workers have jobs that are so good that their incomes are more than enough to offset higher expenses. “San Francisco, for example, is in the top 20% in terms of standard of living across all locations.” New York is not far behind.
Overall, Diamond and Moretti find that the standard of living for college graduates across the U.S. varies much less than it does for other workers. The jobs they get basically offer a cushy cost-of-living adjustment, so on average, college graduates are able to afford a relatively similar lifestyle no matter where they live in the United States.
https://apple.news/AsuMBw6dkSOqUhnQ97trIHw
Here we go with the bs lying attacks. Believe me or don’t, what’s the point of lying?
It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon.
What’s your networth? How old are you?
Jim says:
December 14, 2021 at 7:13 pm
Lying Pumpkin,
Like I stated once before you are nothing but a lying TROLL. Annoying people and acting like an idiot. The irony is your a NJ teacher instructing our students…pathetic.
One of best years in the stock market and you basically lost money, I am up over $145,000.00 in real dollars buying stocks like Micron, AMD, Lowes, GBTC, Nokia, Coin and General Electric among others. Stick with Cathie, she is doing fine for herself.
On a side note I also sold real estate for a net profit of 670,000.00 this year. Yea baby boomers are idiots according to Lying Pumpkin , but it looks like we are a lot smarter than you.
And I don’t play individual stocks. I don’t have to prove to the world how big my balls are by playing it on individual stocks. Give me the ETF’s all day.
Understand this. There is no benefit to moving to a cheaper location. Why? So you can isolate yourself and cut off all opportunities to network with the best and brightest?
““The big, overall takeaway for college graduates is that expensive cities like New York and San Francisco remain a pretty good deal,” Moretti says. Sure, they’re obnoxiously expensive. But educated workers have jobs that are so good that their incomes are more than enough to offset higher expenses. “San Francisco, for example, is in the top 20% in terms of standard of living across all locations.” New York is not far behind.”
That last post was directed to 3b
Exactly what Chi said.
“Today is the first day to consider buying my “No touch” list. Maybe a tad early but certainly not late. $PLTR, $PYPL, $TSLA, $CRWD, $PTON. Many more to come
Why were they no touch and why touch now?
Big sell off. In November. A ton of high cost basis owners that have incentive to sell through year end to realize a capital loss created “no touch”. Devastated since gone on the list. Tax selling ends by 12/31 and you want to be in by then. But many days to come”
Pumps: Deal with your own demons and deep rooted insecurities, no need to single me out.
BRT your vaxed and recovered. I feel invincible right about now, whole family had covid including vax’d wife but my immunity held. Like you I had covid and was vaxed, if I didn’t get it with my kids sneezing on me, sleeping on me, probably picking their noses and then touching me, sleeping in the same bed as my sick wife I think I’m good to be out in public without fear. I’ve had a scratchy throat since Saturday but I’ still covid negative, I’ve done 8 PCR tests since before thanksgiving when we were exposed all negative. I was in close contact with covid positive individuals before I was vaccinated. I think natural immunity is quite good and if you vax’d as well it’s even better.
On the myocarditis, mild viral myocarditis is a different animal than what is happening with the vaccine. Do I need to mention adolescent children have died of heart attacks at 14 years old, that is insane uncommon and the vaccine is implicated. The data is being manipulated, why are they trying to block data from being released? What are they hiding?
JCer,
between refusing to acknowledge recovery as immunity, asking for 75 years before releasing the data, and literally lying out in public, there’s no trust. They’ve enhanced vaccine hesitancy and skepticism to levels incomprehensible which will have major implications for the next 40 years.
The reality is, they could have just stated, listen…these are the risks, these are the benefits for your age cohort. We recommend this, here’s why. Instead they followed down an illogical path and completely lost everyone.
As far as immunity goes, Nature published a study showing that if you recovered and then had 2 shots, your body was able to recognize all kinds of super mutants where they created viruses that had a large amount of mutations, much like the Omicron.
The end of last week was literally a super spreader event at our school. I think I’ll do one more test prior to Christmas eve before seeing my elders. After that, I’m finished. I’m going to get an antibody test to get better info on my personal status. I’ve been almost arrogant in my immunity since April but it’s been well tested. I’ve been maskless at casinos, restaurants, bars, Disney World (at Florida’s peak), sporting events. The mask I wear in school is completely useless. And every time I get tested at Urgent Care, I’m surrounded by obvious positives.
JCer,
between refusing t0 ackn0wIedge rec0very as immunity, asking f0r 75 years bef0re reIeasing the data, and IiteraIIy Iying 0ut in pubIic, there’s n0 trust. They’ve enhanced vaccine hesitancy and skepticism t0 IeveIs inc0mprehensibIe which wiII have maj0r impIicati0ns f0r the next 40 years.
The reaIity is, they c0uId have just stated, Iisten…these are the risks, these are the benefits f0r y0ur age c0h0rt. We rec0mmend this, here’s why. Instead they f0II0wed d0wn an iII0gicaI path and c0mpIeteIy I0st every0ne.
As far as immunity g0es, Nature pubIished a study sh0wing that if y0u rec0vered and then had 2 sh0ts, y0ur b0dy was abIe t0 rec0gnize aII kinds 0f super mutants where they created viruses that had a Iarge am0unt 0f mutati0ns, much Iike the 0micr0n.
The end 0f Iast week was IiteraIIy a super spreader event at 0ur sch00I. I think I’II d0 0ne m0re test pri0r t0 Christmas eve bef0re seeing my eIders. After that, I’m finished. I’m g0ing t0 get an antib0dy test t0 get better inf0 0n my pers0naI status. I’ve been aIm0st arr0gant in my immunity since ApriI but it’s been weII tested. I’ve been maskIess at casin0s, restaurants, bars, Disney W0rId (at FI0rida’s peak), sp0rting events. The mask I wear in sch00I is c0mpIeteIy useIess. And every time I get tested at Urgent Care, I’m surr0unded by 0bvi0us p0sitives.
Wow, I wrote this without looking at the big boys. Got body slammed today.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 14, 2021 at 2:22 pm
I think she nails it. No way in hell are high growth stocks in the bubble. It already deflated this entire year. Where is the deep bubble….look at apple. It’s in all the stocks and sectors that they piled in when selling their high growth positions. Only a matter of time before they correct. S%P500 is being carried by a small minority of stocks. 75% are in the red, yet, we are still at all time highs. What does that tell you?
I feel your pain.
“Workers with only a high school diploma
“For the less-educated households, the picture is quite different,” Moretti says. While they still do get paid more in places with a higher cost of living, their incomes do not adjust as strongly as they do for college-educated folks. So living in these areas, if they are not getting outside help from family or the government, makes them financially worse off. “Expensive cities offer a significantly lower standard of living compared to more affordable communities,” Moretti says.”
3b says:
December 14, 2021 at 8:53 pm
Pumps: Deal with your own demons and deep rooted insecurities, no need to single me out.