When do we get our recovery?

From the NY Federal Reserve:

The Region Is Struggling to Recover from the Pandemic Recession

The pandemic struck the New York-Northern New Jersey region early and hard, and the economy is still struggling to recover nearly two years later. Indeed, employment fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region wasn’t far behind, creating a much larger hole to dig out of than other parts of the country. While the region saw significant growth as the economy began to heal, growth has slowed noticeably, and job shortfalls—that is, the amount by which employment remains below pre-pandemic levels—are some of the largest in the nation. Among major metro areas, job shortfalls in New York City, Buffalo, and Syracuse rank among the five worst in the country. Thus, despite much progress, the region is struggling to recover from the pandemic recession. By contrast, employment has rebounded above pre-pandemic levels in Puerto Rico, reaching a five-year high.

The New York-Northern New Jersey region saw particularly sharp job losses during the pandemic recession (February to April 2020), and the region has not yet caught up to the rest of the nation during the recovery. The chart below shows employment trends through the pandemic, indexed to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels. With New York City emerging as the epicenter of the pandemic early on, the initial job loss of more than 20 percent in the downstate New York region greatly exceeded the national decline of 15 percent. Similarly, job losses in Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County, and upstate New York were greater than for the nation, at around 17-18 percent.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to When do we get our recovery?

  1. grim says:

    Be sure to click through to the Fed piece, it’s a good breakdown of the job losses and impact.

  2. grim says:

    Follow the science? Maybe we should have quarantined the obese people? Covid killed obese people died at 5.6x the rate.


  3. grim says:

    Looks like Hyundai is going to knock it out of the park with it’s new Ioniq 5 mini-suv/crossover – starting at $40k. Boy racer 90s hot hatch styling, nice looking interior.

    300 miles range? Fastest DC fast charging in the industry (80% in 18 minutes, 70 miles in 5 minutes), dual motor variant has 320 horsepower and 445 pound feet of torque (rumored to have a sub 5 second 0-60).

    Tesla model 3 killer – the quality/fit/finish is going to be better for sure. Ioniq 5 also still eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credits (Tesla no longer is). Way bigger bang for your buck. I trust Hyundai can scale production far far faster than most others. VW ID.4 another one that looks poised to really bite into Tesla’s market share.

    Tesla really starting to lose their first-mover advantage now, especially as EV becomes more mainstream, and mainstream consumers want to buy from familiar brands. F-150 EV is going to beat the pants off Rivian and Tesla (where is the cyber truck they’ve been talking about for two years). What happens when Honda releases an EV version of CRV and Accord (With the model 3 and y squarely in their crosshairs)?

    Tesla really needs something interesting up their sleeve to continue to disrupt here. Maybe they can refurbish old Teslas like they do Falcon 9 boosters? Why buy a whole new car just because a few small parts wore out, for sure the motors don’t go bad. Some new bearings, shocks, new coat of paint and an interior refresh. There are plenty of Teslas with 300k, 400k miles now, even that crazy German dude who has done almost a million miles. Realistically, they’d hit a point where they need refurbishment far before they are ready for the scrapper due to serious powertrain issues.

    Or do we see a return of Maaco and Earl Sheib (I’ll paint any car for just $99.95).

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Where do you think the savings from WFH come from. By hurting other people, mostly regular or low skilled workers. You take the money saved from not paying them and put them in white collar/corporations pockets. That’s why I laugh at 3b talking about saving the younger generations, and then goes all out promoting the WFH platform while cheering on the savings. The hypocrisy.

    Shows you true human nature. Savings are good when they are going in your pocket, but it’s bad to have rising home prices when you are not making out from it.

    grim says:
    December 19, 2021 at 6:27 am
    Be sure to click through to the Fed piece, it’s a good breakdown of the job losses and impact.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the dilemma isn’t it? This is why nj taxes/roads cost more than other locations. Everything costs more here because of the high concentration of wealth driving everything up in price as they compete for local resources (workers/supplies/land).

    Ex says:
    December 18, 2021 at 8:33 pm
    I find it suspect though, Pumpkin, that you’d not see the plain fact that NNJ is uninhabitable for a young teacher or for that matter a single teacher trying to buy a home in a decent neighbor. That fact alone should cause most people to pause.

  6. 3b says:

    Pumps: Jeez not even 9:00 AM on a Sunday and you are baiting me. So let me get this right if we all went back to the office all the low skilled/ low wage jobs would come back.

    I will translate for the board , if everyone went back to the office I would not have to worry about commercial real estate being hurt because companies don’t need the space, and that negatively will impact me personally.

    The only hypocrisy is from you that cheers on rising housing prices and ever increasing property taxes. That hurts the young people starting out and middle class people in general, including your fellow teachers you claim to care so much about.

    You could not afford to live in your house on your salary. Yet, you sit on your throne here every day and lecture the rest of us, on any and all topics.
    Take away your wife’s salary and Granmas house and it’s just you and your teaching job.

  7. grim says:

    Omicron now the dominant variant in Ireland. Yet, NJ can’t seem to muster up a variant report for the last month (even though it had been publishing weekly). What gives?

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m just calling it like I see it. I was simply referencing the lead article shared to point out your hypocrisy.

    Dance around the hypocrisy and attack me. Not going to change the fact that you are a hypocrite. Now go back to telling yourself how we are hurting the younger generations with appreciating real estate prices.

  9. BoomerRemover says:

    I am in a Hyundai BEV product which is fantastic. Hyundai botched the US release of this product (HI5) so badly. I’ve had a reservation for 6+ months now with no pricing or concierge service. Just cancelled the other day after Hyundai dealers in NJ confirmed they will be tacking on 5-10K “adjustment”. I’ll let the howmuchamonths get theirs first.

  10. grim says:

    Ford taking on a minimum of $5k for “priority” reservations, hearing some that are complaining of $10k+.

    Doesn’t pay to be the first, not at all.

  11. 3b says:

    Pumps: I hope you get some good therapy next year; you really do need it.

  12. Phoenix says:

    Didn’t everyone on here make so much money this year?

    Stock market rally, home price rally?

    What’s an extra 5-10k when your house doubled in value along with your stock portfolio?


    Covid might kill you next week.

  13. Phoenix says:

    Exception for Bystander of course. You seem to be the one on here who really took a beating

    I feel your pain.

    Sorry if I missed anyone else who had a rough year as well (financially that is)

  14. Phoenix says:

    Trump would pay the extra 10k, or even 20k.

    If you are gonna drink bleach or deworming medicine, might as well drop an extra 10k.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Keep telling yourself that you aren’t a hypocrite. F’k them when it comes to the offices that the hospitality and food industry depend on, that’s money saved in your eyes. But when it comes to rising prices in real estate, you all of a sudden care about them. You need some help, 3b. You need to realize you are no different than any other human being. When you benefit, you support it. Again, tell me how you own real estate because I know you don’t. Human nature says so you liar.

  16. Phoenix says:

    Friend of mine told me about a relative who bought their house and property in 1920.

    Looked this up for him. These are interesting graphs, and I am no math major.

    Buying power graphs. Can they go straight vertical in 2022?


  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know why 3b hates real estate so much. He thought he was smarter than the market. He thought housing would crash and rented instead. Eats you up inside how much you could have made, huh? Rising prices are a constant reminder of how wrong he was.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Ever hear of Maslow? Look it up. Look at the bottom of the triangle. Don’t play games with the bottom of the triangle.

    Mess with people there, and you might find yourself in a body bag.

  19. Bystander says:


    No problems here. I own a house which has risen dramatically. My town had the biggest influx of movers in entire metro area. I am a genius for owning real estate. I moved my retirements accounts to nearly all cash in 2019 as got frothy. I bought back in April 2020 after Fed said bail out all out, around Dow 21k. Working for IB sucks because trade restrictions. It really hurts to listen to great wealth being generated in individual stocks. Doing just fine otherwise. I am just tired of working 7-7 and not getting raises and 6% bonus. I tell it like it is in my technology management area. If there were loads of jobs for way more money, I would be all over it. Fending off little recruiter trolls with 80/hr 6 mo contract jobs is basically my existence right now. Hope it picks up strong in 2022. Since I do alot of skill planning, interviewing for my IB, still alot of delusion about salaries and talent. I told people about lithographer kid who did java and db dev on side. Only one who would even entertain our lowly full stack dev offer (he has zero exp) and now he needs two weeks to think it over..hah. He ain’t coming.

  20. 3b says:

    Pumps: You are an ugly insecure little man, full of demons. So WFH is evil and all those people who benefit from it should go back to the office. No one said there would not be negative impact because of it. That’s what comes from disruptive technology that you are always praising. But if it impacts you personally, like WFH does then it’s bad.

    You would be nowhere without your wife’s big bucks and that’s a fact and you know it.

    As for real estate yep I lost money on the house I sold had I held onto it. I more than made up for it with my other investments, which I don’t really discuss for a number of reasons. I do own a condo which I have told you about which we may or may not retire too , along with another one I own jointly with my Brother. I don’t give a flying fart whether you believe that or not.

    You got Grandma s house and married up good for you. All you care about is you , what kind of idiot cheers on rising house and property taxes and then claims to care about the next generation? You want everyone back in the office so that in your mind your personal financial situation is protected. Meanwhile, of course you will be home at 3:00 summers off and all the other days off, while posting everyday at work while claiming how hard you work. Like I said get yourself some good therapy.

  21. grim says:

    NJ’s salt fix is dead.

  22. Phoenix says:

    After reading the last two posts I was about to post something that even my extremely crude, practically non-existent filter, the only one not destroyed by my divorce, was able to stop. It was the size of a boulder.

    Not about the posters or their status, but of mine thanks to one individual and a messed up justice system.

  23. Phoenix says:

    Looks like Lakewood had a fun one. Guess this guy reached his breaking point.


  24. Ex says:

    9:06 you can’t really have a society so bloated with top heavy riches while the rest of the world starves. The middle class is all but dead.

  25. crushednjmillenial says:

    8:51 . . .

    White collar Americans save money compared to commuting from WFH, and then 90% of those people spend every single red cent on substitution consumption.

    Midtown manhattan coffee shop: sales are down. Sales are -70% compared to pre-covid, and it is still heading toward restructuring if its capital structure included debt. -2 jobs.

    Suburban coffee shop: Sales are basically steady. Sales are +.3% compared to pre-covid, and things are ok, if maybe a bit disappointing because they wanted and had projected growth. +0 jobs.

    Contractor man with a truck parked one block from suburban coffee shop: sales are +35% compared to pre-covid, because Americans are taking that WFH savings (adding financing via a HELOC) and building an office on top of their garage or out into their backyard and sprucing up the guest bedroom and bath while they are at it. +2 jobs.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Then why are the labor numbers down in the fed article shared by GRIM?

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Could it be that the money is becoming even more concentrated in this area due to WFH? Lower ranks lose jobs tied to that office economy, while higher ranks (white collar) save money? Isn’t that more money being concentrated at the top?

  28. grim says:

    NJ just clocked another 6k+ day, 4th in a row. Today’s numbers highest of the current wave, in spitting distance of setting a new one-day record.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is the problem with the stats thrown around in the salt debate, they ignore the cost of living of said location. They treat all earnings as equal in the nation, when that’s not the case. This is a f’ed up argument. The right thing to do is repeal the salt tax, and if you want to tax the rich, figure out a way that takes into account cost of living, otherwise this salt tax is a targeted tax on individuals in high cost blue states. That’s wrong.

    “The second proposal, suggested by Golden in the Washington Post, would fully repeal the $10,000 SALT deduction cap but only for those making less than $175,000 per year. According to Golden, this would help “the small number of truly middle-class families who benefit from the deduction” by lifting the cap for “essentially the bottom 80 percent of households in the country.” We assume the cap would be phased back in between $175,000 and $225,000 of income – though policymakers could consider a different phase-in.

    Based on TPC data, we estimate increasing the cap to $25,000 for those earning up to $400,000 would cost roughly $95 billion, with 36 percent going to the top 5 percent of households by income and 86 percent going to the top quintile. By comparison, the House proposal to lift the cap to $80,000 would cost $275 billion, with 70 percent going to the top 5 percent of earners and 94 percent to the top quintile.

    The Golden proposal would do even better than the plan TPC modeled. Based on our very rough estimates, it would cost only $25 billion, with none of the benefit going to the top 5”

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We all know that 175,000 makes you rich in most of America, because most of these locations are nothing. Made up of areas with not much money because they produce almost nothing. But go into any high cost location (the highest productive areas of our economy), and 175k does not make you rich.

  31. Phoenix says:

    For the last decade, New Jersey has required nearly all of its public employees to live in the state.

    But teachers may soon be dropped from the restriction.

    State lawmakers are considering a bipartisan bill that would alter the controversial 10-year-old law to exempt public school teachers and other school employees for at least the next three years.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well, looks like the ultra rich sold off all their tax positions for nothing. They aren’t see a tax increase as the bill didn’t get passed. Of course the salt tax states get hit for another year to pay for some rich guy’s tax break in West Virginia.

  33. Phoenix says:

    Sure it does pumpy.

    You take all of that profit, and move to Florida when you get old. Add that cash to your lifetime pension, and you live like a king in retirement.

    Try doing it the other way around.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Great deal if you are into Espresso, this machine usually costs 2 grand. Great for WFH teachers.

    Saeco Xelsis Automatic Espresso Machine for $1,199.97 after 25% OFF coupon code – TEST20 at surlatable

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Seems that we’re at an impasse with the “Build Back Never” agenda, which is probably a good thing for financial markets.

    For example, the failure to pass the bill reduces the supply of US debt issuance just as the Fed is reducing their demand for the same.”

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Meanwhile corporate executives sold billions in stock to avoid paying the extra 5% in taxes. Guess that was premature. US gov for the win.”

  37. grim says:

    I’m sorry, something stinks to holy hell here.

    NJ announced 2 more omicron cases today, bringing the total to 4 (four), yes you read that right, 4.

  38. Phoenix says:

    Omicron can’t afford Jersey houses or taxes.

    The state is too toxic.

  39. Juice Box says:

    Is the governor at the Giants vs Dallas game? A convoy of Suburbans with lights flashing sped past me on the shoulder of the turnpike passing up miles of traffic at the route three exit right before kickoff time. It’s good to be a gangster and not have to wait for traffic.

  40. Juice Box says:

    CDC sequenced positive samples from NY Metro taken from Dec 5th Dec 11th. 13.1 percent of those analyzed Came back as Omicron, so obviously there are thousands of cases in the last two weeks.

  41. Grim says:

    Who knows, NJ stopped publishing the weekly variant data almost a month ago.

  42. BRT says:

    I’m assuming everything that went through my school was Omicron. We’ve had 3.5 months to have any sort of delta transmission and saw nearly nothing. And in 1 week, all of the sudden 10% of the school tests positive.

  43. BRT says:

    I keep hearing anecdotes and hospitals actually have data that twenty somethings keep showing up with cardiac events. I got to see it with my own eyes yesterday at Urgent Care while I was waiting for a PCR test. 24 year old (low BMI) comes in, grasping his chest. 15 minutes in, they called for transport to the hospital because he has abnormal EKG.

  44. Phoenix says:

    A million things can cause that, including someone who cannot tell a true reading from an artifact.

  45. Bystander says:

    “Omicron can’t afford Jersey houses or taxes.”

    Hah, it is not a top performer obviously, Phoenix. A Polish mook told us that NJ is a state for high performers only…but so did the mook governor essentially.

  46. Juice Box says:

    NOWCAST data on Covid positive test gene sequencing is updated every Tuesday


  47. Juice Box says:

    Ah can’t you just feel the Christmas joy!

    Now there is a huge shortage of home test kits…Trillions spent and no test kits anywhere by me, cheap Binax ones at Walmart and Amazon were $12 now $14 for two. Wallgreens and CVS are price gouging for $25 for the same tests and are out of stock too.

    …Funny these boomers are just asking too much now, we now all have to get tested to attend the annual family Christmas party. It was about 50 people and now has been scaled back and moved from the country club to a family members home because they don’t want to wear masks as the country club is insisting on. Family member who is now hosting wants everyone get tested before the party Christmas Day but there are no kits anywhere and I am not about to wait in line with sick people. Some family just cancelled won’t be coming as they will have to quarantine their kids from school for two weeks when they returned home to California etc. My BIL also punted was supposed to fly in on the 24th. Now they are staying put and maybe driving 700 miles on the 26th….I bet they don’t come at all because it’s snowing.

    I should have just gone skiing yet I am spending 3000 bucks for plane tickets to freeze my ass off in the Midwest, and deal with family. I should have gone with my gut and instead be toasting Christmas and the New Year in Vail and hitting the slopes every day for freshies….. Sure I would have spent allot more but you cannot put a price on my happiness when I don’t get a ski vacation in years…..

  48. Juice Box says:

    Here is the link I meant to post for NOWCAST data.


    Click Region 2 New York, New Jersey…

    This is the genomic sampling for our region that the CDC collects. Omicron was 2% of positive samples on 12/4 report and 13% of samples on 12/11 report Next update is on Tuesday 12/21

    Anyone want to take bets? 70% Omicron for NY Metro?

  49. grim says:

    We were going to swing up to Vermont between Christmas or New Years but couldn’t find a decent room at a nice enough joint.

  50. grim says:

    Just booked Disney for June right after school is done. Rented someone’s DVC timeshare, Bay Lake/Contemporary 1 bedroom, will be there through 4th of July which should be magical (read: f*cking terrible). Gotta pay for the Magic Bus, and I’m hearing you gotta pay extra now for all the fast passes, and even more on top of that for certain rides. F*ck the greedy mouse.

    Hopefully Omicron is the wave to end all waves.

  51. Phoenix says:

    “F*ck the greedy mouse.”

    You have to pay extra for that as well.

  52. Phoenix says:

    Come hang with me. You know how to use a caulking gun? I’ll have you cementing in knees in no time.

    Nothing like the smell of methyl methacrylate in the morning.

  53. BRT says:

    grim, you shoulda went in August. All the Northeasterners cancelled their plans because of Delta wave going through. There were no lines. California grill was still booked though.

  54. Phoenix says:

    Learn about the “Fast Pass.”


  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Trump delivers a vaccine, O’Biden drives us into potential lockdown.

    Any questions, b1tch?

  56. Phoenix says:

    “Trump delivers a vaccine, O’Biden drives us into potential lockdown.

    Any questions, b1tch?”

    Are you going to resist arrest?

  57. Phoenix says:

    Have a ZOOM! Christmas. Just like WFH.

    Just think how efficient it would be. You could delegate who sets the Metaverse table and who cooks the Metaverse meal.

    Just think, you won’t have to deal with this:


  58. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – This is the third year I kowtowed to someone else’s idea of holiday plans…

    I really see no reason to go and try and gather with family either my wife’s or mine during the Christmas break. None of them ski…… It’s the only time I can get my kids properly trained on how to not die on a double black. They will never learn otherwise, we are basically city slickers here in NJ.

  59. Juice Box says:

    Did Orlando three times during peak travel which was Easter Break and Fall Break here. Fast passes during those surge weeks are the only way you will get on any more than a couple of rides. Our first trip there we did literally three rides during an entire day at Universal without fast passes, massive crowds and hot. I learned an expensive lesson that day 10 hours in the sun and only three rides…I actually wanted to buy fast passes the day of and they were sold out of fast passes. Get them online in advance…Next two times I splurged for fast passes, but only two days at the two Universal parks, bought a combined park ticket with fast passes and planned it so we had to get on all rides once each day, started very early. I was up prepping breakfast and we were there for park opening time 9:00 AM well in advance and stayed till 10 PM closing. I booked 30,000 steps on those days too, we were running allot and really had a great time. Kids loved the excitement.. We did the other parks on different days. Sea World is well worth it great roller coasters and water rides and not too expensive. The Disney waterparks are separate ticket. Disney’s Typhoon Lagoon and Blizzard beach.. Fast passes there too, a nice day for sure…and very clean too. Don’t forget to visit Canaveral. Launch days are extremely crowded, you may not even get on the island. On less busy Canaveral days book the bus tour and splurge, the bus takes you nice and close to Elon’s rockets and other sights.

  60. Juice Box says:

    Senator Booker and now Senator Warren both test positive for corvid..You can bet they are tested all the time too.

    Here is our quote today from the governor..

    “The omicron variant is real,” Gov. Phil Murphy said on “Fox News Sunday.” “We’ve already been battling the delta variant. This is unrelenting. There’s an enormous amount of fatigue out there as it relates to this virus. By the way, I get it. I’ve got that same fatigue, but we’ve got to stay vigilant and we will stay vigilant.”

    Keep Grandma and Grandpa home. I just spent a few hours today trying to convince my 84 yr old mom to stay home. She wants to go to Christmas Eve, Day and New Years celebrations, and play cards at the local club….

  61. Phoenix says:

    Have a friend who is a Disney travel agent. Trying to get you the best price on your F the mouse package.

    She says it depends on if you take the mouse out to dinner first. Suggested you take the mouse to the Skipper Canteen or Tusker House first, with that and a fast pass you get a complementary 1/2 hour of the activity of your choice :)

  62. Grim says:

    Doesn’t make sense Booker being positive, he’s a democrat

  63. Phoenix says:


    Sounds good. Forecast I saw is for the west to get good snowfall this year, I’d like to get my kid up on skis as well.

    Wanted to get her on water skis as well this summer, that didn’t pan out, however.

  64. Phoenix says:

    Isn’t Booker the Superhero that runs into burning buildings to save kids? How does that guy get a virus?

  65. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – My biggest regret so far with my kids is not enough freshies…..it’s was all I thought about for a long long time as they grew up. me teaching them skiing and having a great time. It going to be a long winter again with Covid and as any measure like last year any ski place was impossible to book, and for most way expensive.

    My niece is now working at a ski place in NY State. maybe she will get some family passes. I may be going there even if the runs are short etc but it’s better than really nothing..

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Hang in there, these are def trying times.

    At least murphy gets it, we are all over this.

    I can’t wait to see matrix on hbo max in a few days. Due to the philosophical tone to the series, it’s one of my fav of all time. That first movie was epic from a philosophical standpoint.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Red or blue pill? Truer words have never been spoken.

    Like the first movie beautifully highlighted, most don’t want the truth, rather taste the digital form of filet mignon. It’s the future and it’s sad.

  68. Libturd says:


    Have you skied Plattekill?

    Best mountain south of Vermont if you like freshies and no crowds. Dirt cheap too and slightly farther drive than Wyndham/Hunter.

    Tahoe is already deep btw.

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