Fun – dah – mentals

From the NYT:

Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It?

Two years into the pandemic, rundown bungalows command bidding wars, buyers keep snatching up places they’ve never seen, and homebuilders can’t find enough cabinet doors for everyone who wants a new home. The median price for an American home is up nearly 20 percent in a year. The for-sale inventory is at a new low. And the hopeful buyers left on the sidelines have helped drive up rents instead.

All of this may feel unsustainable — the tight inventory, the wild price growth, the dwindling affordability. Surely something’s got to give.

But what if that’s not exactly true? Or, at least, not true anytime soon for renters locked out of homeownership today or anyone worried about housing affordability. There’s probably no quick reprieve coming, no rollback in stratospheric home prices if you can just wait a little longer to jump in.

“It’s not a bubble, it really is about the fundamentals,” said Jenny Schuetz, a housing researcher at the Brookings Institution. “It really is about supply and demand — not enough houses, and huge numbers of people wanting homes.”

Neither side of that ledger has a quick fix. More than six million existing homes sold in 2021, the highest number since 2006, according to data published Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. But that was still well short of satisfying demand. And there’s little evidence to suggest the nation is in a hurry to correct the imbalance between supply and demand.

“My pessimistic view is that the economy is perfectly capable of running with unaffordable housing,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin. This was evident over the last decade, she said, when affordability worsened even as the economy continued to grow. And that reality has enabled politicians and the public to largely neglect the issue of housing affordability.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

59 Responses to Fun – dah – mentals

  1. Hold my beer says:


  2. Ex says:

    ….we’re on the rooooooad to nowhere……

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    I take a look at Trulia and Zillow every day. I search houses anywhere from Hackettstown to the Hudson River and as far south as route 78. Anything with 3 bedrooms/2 baths seems to begin with a “4” handle. If it’s a “3” handle, it’s either in a tough area or in need of top to bottom renovation.

  4. Phoenix says:

    Twin Towers. And why they were weak.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s amazing watching all these value investors jumping around the streets because high growth got destroyed while ignoring their underperformance for how long?

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Biden Administration Makes Visa Changes to Retain Foreign STEM Students
    Moves are designed to boost innovation in the U.S. while keeping pace with competitors such as China”

  7. Chicago says:

    It is the equivalent of watching steroid cheats get busted, and the quality all fields line drive hitter reassert his value.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 22, 2022 at 9:30 am
    It’s amazing watching all these value investors jumping around the streets because high growth got destroyed while ignoring their underperformance for how long?

  8. Fabius Maximus says:

    Stone Mansion on Frick Estate in Alpine finally sells for $27.5M after decade on market

    I drive past this most days and noticed they now have someone in the guards house. After 10 yrs, it sells for 40% of the initial list price. Do you think they broke even on the build?

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Have to agree with you there.

    Too much easy money was made, it was only a matter of time before they get slaughtered.

  10. BRT says:

    I’m dumping Berkshire Monday. I think ETF redemptions are going to ripple through the entire market. That’s basically it for my longs in my trading account. Watching for the face ripping rally (but I’ve been waiting for that for 2 weeks). Any face ripper, I plan to increase short positions and ride those out to the bottom. RWM (inverse Russell) is looking really really good right now. I’ve been holding it for a month.

  11. SmallGovConservative says:

    Good take on covid from hedge fund guy Harris Kupperman…

    “Covid is a bad cold that has evolved into a mental disorder. You really need to separate the two. Left alone, Covid the virus will evolve to be less dangerous to humans. Unfortunately, governments like to tinker and convince voters that they’re doing something useful. Vaccinating a huge percentage of the population, with multiple boosters, is likely to change how the virus would naturally evolve…Most scientists have always known that vaccinating against a coronavirus is a mistake…Unfortunately, Covid has evolved into this mental disorder where people walk around with cloth diapers on their faces and scrub their hands with alcohol all day. There’s this whole neurosis to it, with people lecturing others on if they’re going through the motions correctly…”

  12. Chicago says:

    Leftwing: Big Red fcuked it up. The got caught overlooking the Tigers because they have Q’Pac tonight. Damnit. Now they have to win.

  13. Phoenix says:


    Plenty of people still dying from it. It’s not a cold.

    OTOH, it does get rid of mostly older people. Is that what you want?

  14. BRT says:

    Phoenix, that’s true…but all protective measures have been an absolute failure. The measure that’s shown to work is early treatment, but we don’t do that. But people who pretend to care about people dying are blind to that.

  15. Phoenix says:

    Operators of a Jersey Shore-based charity to benefit the families of law enforcement officers killed or injured in the line of duty helped themselves instead, state authorities charged.

    The National Police Relief Association and several of its board members went to dinner and to Walt Disney World on the dimes of donors while directly pocketing more than $200,000, Acting New Jersey Attorney General Andrew J. Bruck said.

    Meanwhile, families of slain officers got a grand total of $14,000, he said.

    Frank John and Michael Davis previously worked for the New Jersey Department of Corrections, according to the complaint filed in Superior Court in Toms River.

    Frank and his wife, both previously of Middlesex County, directly paid themselves “with no apparent connection to work performed for the charity” from 2014 to 2020, Bruck said.

    They also tried to hide their misdeeds by not reporting the income for tax purposes, he said.

    The co-conspirators spent nearly $25,000 on personal dining, automobile expenses and leisure travel for board members, the attorney general said.

    “This amount includes over $7,000 for a weeklong Walt Disney World trip for multiple board members and their adult family members,” he said.

  16. Phoenix says:

    Covid 2022. We have the new storyline.

    “Police warn public not to approach lab MONKEY that got away in Pennsylvania truck crash as they hunt it down and ‘shoot dead’ three other escapees”

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Many people are quitting their jobs due to burn-out but promising that their next job will be remote. According to the Y-combinator funded Hacker News, the number of job posts featuring remote work have quadrupled since 2017. American tech companies have been the most progressive in embracing remote work. That alone will drive many to seize the moment to relocate abroad. But they’ve also said they plan to hire the best people anywhere for each new position. Suddenly the Bay Area coder may be competing with talent in Kenya. As Simon Kuper wryly warned in the Financial Times, “If you can do your job from anywhere, then someone anywhere can do your job.” Even though the Biden administration is encouraging companies to “buy American” or “hire American,” their DNA guides them to constantly arbitrage the world for taxes, technology and talent. A friend from a major tech company recently flew to Portugal to recruit Europeans and Americans who have planted roots there and corral them into a new co-working space.
    From Tulum, Mexico, to Athens, Greece, to Phuket, Thailand, entire colonies have sprung up catering to mobile youth in search of sunny, low-tax hubs. Digital nomads are geographically mercenary, using websites like Expatistan and nomad-themed message boards to calculate where to find the best balance between cost of living and quality of life. And those websites are steering them towards Berlin, Prague, Tbilisi, and Bali—not New York and Los Angeles. And according to VanHack, one of the largest platforms of digital nomads in the software industry, Canada, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Spain all rank ahead of the U.S. as top destinations for relocating among the more 600,000 developers surveyed. Americans are making Europe great again.
    A generational shift has occurred that Boomers and even older Gen-X don’t quite grasp: Today’s young professionals don’t identify themselves by their nationality—they identify as talent. Millennial and Gen-Z are content with portfolio careers and working abnormal hours, even for less pay, in exchange for less work and more time for travel and passion projects.

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We are truly f’ed. Like locusts, they will come to low cost areas driving up the cost while hurting poor people more and more. I would not want to be poor in the future. The rich are going to take every single nice location in the world for themselves now that they are not tied to a specific location.

  19. Phoenix says:

    Zillow buying houses. For you Pumpy.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    Just call it Kentucky Coffee and less of the Cultural Appropriation!

  21. Bystander says:

    Thanks Joe. Build Back better..hint don’t hold a big WH ceremony nor attend ground breaking ceremony like the Orange con man did with horrible FoxConn scandal.

    Intel Corp said on Friday it would invest up to $100 billion to build potentially the world’s largest chip-making complex in Ohio, looking to boost capacity as a global shortage of semiconductors affects everything from smartphones to cars.

  22. Ex says:

    7:24 I think being poor anytime is a drag.

  23. Phoenix says:

    Here is the temp order: Ef judges in America.

    That means the seven health care workers would not be working at either hospital on Monday.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Might as well be living in a communist country.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In 1959, the average family spent 19 percent of their budgets on food. That fell to 7 percent in 2019

    Amazing charts in here from @binarybits…

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People like to talk about the housing bubble that supposedly occurred between 2000 and 2006. It’s true that the early 2000s were a period of reasonably strong home construction, but this chart casts doubt on the idea that construction during this period was unsustainable. As I argued last November, the housing bubble was greatly exaggerated. America actually produced fewer new homes in 2005, the peak of the supposed bubble, than in 1978 or 1979.
    What’s actually remarkable about this chart is the housing bust that followed the 2007 financial crisis. American housing production fell below historical norms in 2008 and stayed well below average for a full decade. The resulting shortage of housing has been a major factor in today’s high home prices. We’re only now returning to the robust rate of home production that was the norm before to 2007.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pay attention to that last paragraph. No way in hell is housing going down in the short-term. No way, no how.

    Lefty, don’t forget, I made the call last summer that housing is going up. You laughed. So don’t act like it was an obvious call. The obvious call last summer was we were in a housing bubble at peak pricing. That’s what everyone and their mother thought. Not the case.

  28. Phoenix says:

    Not good.

    Flight from NY to Tel Aviv turns back after two unruly Israelis grab business seats
    Passengers said to raise ruckus after sitting in business class, refusing to prove to cabin crew they had tickets for it; pilot returns to NY, pair arrested.

    Two Israeli passengers caused a plane flying out of New York to turn back and land, as they clashed with cabin crew after allegedly refusing to prove they had tickets to sit in business class seats, Hebrew media reported Friday.

    The two passengers were arrested after the plane landed in New York.

    The United Airlines overnight flight had set off at 11 p.m. local time Thursday for Tel Aviv, where it had been scheduled to arrive on Friday afternoon.

    Passenger Roi Eitan told Channel 12 News that approximately 90 minutes into the flight, an argument erupted between the two Israeli passengers and cabin staff.

    The flight, he said, was half full and the two passengers in question apparently decided to take advantage of the situation and went to sit in the business section.

    When flight attendants eventually asked the two to prove they had boarding passes entitling them to the seats, they refused to comply, he said.

    As the argument became more heated, the captain decided to turn the plane around and returned to New York.

  29. Chicago says:

    Big Red beats Q’Pac in OT

    Chicago says:
    January 22, 2022 at 2:19 pm
    Leftwing: Big Red fcuked it up. The got caught overlooking the Tigers because they have Q’Pac tonight. Damnit. Now they have to win.

  30. Phoenix says:

    7:24 I think being poor anytime is a drag.

    I agree.

    At that point you just go around stealing catalytic converters in order to feed your family or paying your rent to a hedge fund.

  31. Phoenix says:

    Well, I guess those WFH producers are going to have to venture out somewhere to find an animal to slaughter when the food stops reaching the markets.

    Let the feds drive the trains.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Another sign america’s standard of living is going down. Get them all in apartments…

    “Can You Force the Suburbs to Build Apartments? Massachusetts Is Trying.
    Even if some towns “have to go kicking and screaming.””

  33. Phoenix says:

    When it comes to being a landlord Republicans really mean business when they want you out-especially the Karens.

    A Connecticut landlord fatally shot her tenant Thursday to end a long-running dispute, police said.

    Ellen Wink, 61, was charged with first-degree murder in the death of Kurt Lametta, 54, in Norwalk.

    Wink is Norwalk’s Republican deputy registrar of voters, and she owns houses at 18 Nelson Ave. and 16 Nelson Ave. in the city. Lametta was the tenant at 16 Nelson Ave.

  34. Juice Box says:

    NEW ZEALAND – Still sticking to the 0 Covid policy, they now enter a red zone with 24 days self isolation. 24 DAYS!

  35. leftwing says:

    “Lefty, don’t forget, I made the call last summer that housing is going up. You laughed.”

    I think you are confused. I don’t care where housing goes short term as inevitably it will longer term go from the lower left to the upper right on the price chart especially in nominal, non-inflation adjusted, dollars.

    As I’ve emphasized tirelessly to you, ‘predicting’ the inevitable is no feat and moreover who but the most insecure among us even cares about ‘correctness’ of ‘calls’ on an internet forum…

    Anyway, please leave me out of your rantings…a good part of the reason I wasn’t around for a few months is because your idiocy dominated on any given day a third or more of the posts here…with a single response to each of those posts nearly the entire conversation here on many days was humoring your foolishness.

    For me, you personally turned this forum from an enjoyable, informative neighborhood of long term participants with valuable diverse experiences and opinions shared from all walks of life and political persuasions into the equivalent of the old forums or the comments section of the Daily Mail.

    Pack up your neurotic insecurities and you may actually learn something from people on here…I certainly have…and you have an outside chance of becoming a valued participant. Just maybe.

    Grim likely has an exact date but I’ve been on here over a decade and probably closer to 15 years. For at least three years I ignored everything around you and did not respond. This reply is my last to you, don’t expect another. Go terrorize your wife, daughter, siblings, co-workers, or someone else forced to endure being in a room with you and your nonsensical ramblings. Leave me out of your drivel.

  36. leftwing says:

    Chi, yeah, nice one against Q after the Princeton debacle…Lynah must have been rocking.

    May have mentioned before but CHN has an app that tracks the Pairwise…take a look.

    Not sure when they update it for the weekend games, it’s kind of run on a shoestring, but good data ultimately. Cornell has been on a knife edge of the top 16 and moving all over the place…I’m keeping an eye on it, would rather not have to rely on an ECAC championship to make the NCAAs…although with such low expectations at the beginning of the season anything is a win.

  37. Chicago says:

    I was looking at the ECAC point totals, and am mystified by QPac and Clarkson

    I get the 3Pts for W and one point each for tie after regulation. Also on point for OTW and SW. but how the fcuk do some of those totals equate? Must be wrong.

    Must have a St Law guys running the books.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My #1 buyout candidate for 2022 is $PTON
    $PTON sells at just 2.5 x revenue which is extremely cheap for fit-tech $LULU $AAPL $NKE are the likely buyers.
    Peloton hired McKinsey to clean up their books for a sale imo.
    PT $50 to $55 on a buyout.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:


    No matter how many punches you throw, I’ll still be here. Rocky balboa style!

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You guys can have your circle jerk or thank me who called the real estate boom on the year way back in 2012. To write that off as nothing, is pure obnoxious bs.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s not like I didn’t take punch after punch when I first called for it. To the point, I questioned my process. Sorry, I was correct, demographics and supply dynamics matter.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    US Stock Market History

    1989 – 2000: Growth Stocks
    2000 – 2007: Value Stocks
    2007 – Nov. 2021: Growth Stocks

    Last 3 Months: Value Stocks

    We’ve only just begun.

  43. Hold my beer says:

    Looks like some people are going to need a new wealth manager.

    There’s a YouTube link to the incident in the comments.

  44. PumpkinFace says:

    Find one post from 2012, anyone will do. Otherwise STFU.

  45. leftwing says:

    “Looks like some people are going to need a new wealth manager.”

    WTF is wrong with people…I get his kid got hauled to the hospital for the allergy, but really? Hope his wife has a good job, he’s unemployable now…

  46. Chicago says:

    STFU asswipe

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 23, 2022 at 7:51 pm
    US Stock Market History

    1989 – 2000: Growth Stocks
    2000 – 2007: Value Stocks
    2007 – Nov. 2021: Growth Stocks

    Last 3 Months: Value Stocks

    We’ve only just begun

  47. BRT says:

    He also had some amazing stock market calls the past year

  48. Libturd says:

    Pancakes anyone?

  49. Phoenix says:

    Tik Tok is going to being down more and more of these idiots. These older people better learn not to mess with the youth today.

    What a dotard.

  50. Phoenix says:

    This was posted on a Sunday he was fired the same day on a weekend. Ha ha ha ha

  51. Phoenix says:

    What’s wrong with the adults today? They think it’s OK to steal plane seats, I think it’s OK to shoot their tenants, and they think it’s OK to do racist things in a shake shop. What an example they set for the youth. Those people that stole those plane seats and forced a fully fueled jet to return 90 minutes back to New York should have to pay for the entire cost of that flight.

  52. Phoenix says:

    Wife’s gonna take the kid and the house claim he was abusive and use that recording as evidence. Now he’s going to pay her alimony and child support

  53. BRT says:

    Sorry Lib, no pancakes….Pancake in a can is now a bitcoin miner.

    October 25, 2021
    In this article:


    Explore the topics mentioned in this article

    HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif., Oct. 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — Nate’s Food Co. (OTC: NHMD) is pleased to announce that it has commenced its Bitcoin Mining Operations. Of the equipment acquired, approximately 500 terrahash (TH/s) has already come online and is mining. An additional 1,000 TH/s is scheduled to come online shortly for a total of 1,500 TH/s. We will provide updates on our twitter page ( as the additional terrahash becomes active and acquired.

  54. Phoenix says:

    They think it’s OK

  55. LurksMcGee says:

    Watched the new episode of Billions tonight and I’m CONVINCED, someone somewhere must have it out against someone high up at that company. Makes no sense to have these tropes.

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    Futures down again. Interest rate hikes, Russia eyeing the Ukraine and the overall lack of confidence in this administration doesn’t bode well. I guess the key is knowing when to toss some money in at the bottom. Are we there yet or is there another 10% or more to go?

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