From the LA Times:
Joe Pesci sells extremely 1980s New Jersey mansion for $5 million
On the coast of New Jersey, an Art Deco-style mansion that screams Joe Pesci has been sold by the man himself for $5 million.
The Oscar-winning actor, who grew up in the Garden State, bought the property in 1994 for $850,000. He’d been shopping it around for the last three years for $6.5 million before finally finding a buyer. The sale closed on Wednesday.
A mish-mash of the over-the-top style of the 1980s and ’90s, the waterfront estate spans a third of an acre in Lavallette overlooking Barnegat Bay. Dramatically different than its neighbors, the mansion looks like a natural fit for one of Pesci’s gangster characters in films such as “Goodfellas,” “Casino” or “The Irishman.”
The cream-colored home flaunts a curvaceous exterior topped by a glass atrium. Inside, a sculptural staircase winds its way upstairs.
Other highlights include a rounded dining room under a gold lighting fixture, as well as a memorabilia-filled media room complete with a “Lethal Weapon” pinball machine. There’s also a gold-colored barbershop chair, a carousel horse, an elevator, an office, eight bedrooms and eight bathrooms — including a primary suite with a private balcony.
Foist
A tear down for sure …..
Morning tidbits from CNBC in the background…
Pull up the popcorn. Control shareholder of PTON steps down as CEO. Whether or not there is a formal process in place this action is putting a large ‘For Sale’ sign on the company. Any takers for an over/under on the share price if it happens? Won’t be the first.
Pfizer reports. $55B of $90+B in revenue is COVID related…..
And lastly looking at demented grandma’s portfolio moves last night it appears she is selling out of TWTR. She dumped over 3m shares yesterday, 1.1% of the portfolio. Big trade. Usually her largest trades up/down are measured in tenths of percentage points of portfolio size.
I think it’s going to be Nike, not Apple or Amazon.
Murphy on Jake Tapper yesterday claimed masks work because “only 2400 out 1.4 million students have been infected since the begging of the school year”. He should better check his stats. My district alone approached 1000 positives for the year.
Believe they were counting only confirmed school-community spread cases. Everything else was not-our-problem.
Not sure why Murphy decided he would own the great unmasking.
Why? It’s not his call anymore, he lost the ability to extend emergency measures without the legislature’s approval, this is a done deal. He’s basically declaring a brand new emergency to skirt around the issue. NJ legislature looking to strip the governor of the ability to do it entirely.
I would agree with that. As a matter of fact, the Apple Watch, Apple’s only existing connection to Peloton (even the Peloton App is a separate element), has intentionally been made not to work well with Peloton. The two third party apps that try to connect with the Peloton break with nearly every iOS upgrade. The FitBit and other NIKE products work flawlessly (I’ve been told). There is a simple (and cheap) technology that Peloton uses that is meant to sync fitness products. Apple has intentionally left it out of their existing watches.
Nike exercise equipment could lead to Nike gyms, etc. It’s really a pretty synergistic fit.
I lost my NJ drivers license. The only way to order a duplicate via the NJDMV website is to input your NJ drivers license number, which seems a bit circular. Has anyone done this previously? Do I need to file a police report?
For Amazon, Peloton is only a matter of existing subscribers that can be pulled into the Prime ecosystem, nothing more, just a sub.
I suspect Apple would prefer to extend their ecosystem partnership to Peloton through Nike as well.
““only 2400 out 1.4 million students have been infected since the begging of the school year””
He’s a Trump from the other side. Both Murphy and Trump tell brazen lies and no one ever calls either of them out on them.
In other news, Murph’s been running the show for 5 years. NJ Transit is still a train wreck. Trains are still be regularly routed into Hoboken. Delays are still as common as ever. There has been no measurable improvement. Still, weed is not legal in NJ. Still no state bank. NJ is in the bottom 20% of states in economic growth. But you would never know any of this living here. Hmmmmm.
Grim, right. There are Nike Apple Watches. I have one. :P
I don’t know on NKE….from a business perspective it makes sense but I don’t see how the numbers work…
It would take most of their balance sheet cash with any kind of premium or they’d have to float more debt…they could use shares, you get away with issuing less than 10% of current float…but…
In either case an acquisition absolutely blows NKE earnings out of the water, the deal is seriously dilutive and EPS goes down….it’s almost impossible for anyone but the largest of companies with piles of excess cash and where PTON losses are a rounding error to do a deal…
Plus, on NKE, this type of deal is not in their DNA…they do few, small deals focused on value….Converse out of bankruptcy for a few hundred million – not speculative, transform the company type deals. And they have a robust share buyback program (20% contraction in shares over the last decade) which would be put on hold or contracted as they absorb PTON’s negative cash flow…
I just don’t see a way they do this deal without their stock getting absolutely decimated….
Perhaps everyone will just wait until they can buy it out of bankruptcy?
The challenge with developing a competing product is that nobody is going to cough up the money to buy a Niketon or Appeloton 2.0. You either buy the ecosystem, or you don’t.
Going to be interesting in a scenario where Peloton folds – millions of useless bikes.
What’s Peloton’s valuation if you value it like a regional cable provider – subs subs subs.
I don’t understand why NKE is being touted as a suitor. Apple has a very large subscriber base, many of whom are paying for PTON at the expense of Apple fitness. I think the key is being able to convince your existing subscriber base to swing for an incremental subscription upgrade to be part of PTON (AAPL), or to roll the PTON SaaS into your existing subscriber base and cost (AMZN) and retain any non Prime Peloton members (few?).
Either way, I have a call at 1PM, which means I’ll be doing a PTON ride before noon.
Grim, to determine any valuation for PTON you need a reliable set of forecasts out to profitability….
All we know from its ER this morning is the company burned through $500m of cash in this most recent quarter, has $1.6B of cash on the balance sheet, and expects to end the year with $1.2B of cash.
The implied staunching of the bleeding by year end keys off an amorphous plan to reduce expenses by $800m notably announced today by the CEO who announced, concurrently, that he is stepping down….can’t make this up.
Seriously, there is no rational way to value this company right now. Magic eight ball as good as anything.
Which, btw, is why the share price is all over the place (no basis for valuation so speculation fills the vacuum) and why ultimately they don’t get sold soon because for anything other than a total bargain basement, you-are-going-bankrupt takedown no CEO of any major company can take an eleven digit acquisition to his board that is a hot steaming mess and still retain any shred of credibility in said Board room….
I wonder if most of you guys dissect individual companies’ revenue and forecasts to profit from it or just for the sake of determining whether your prediction(s) will be correct.
Left,
You are probably right. I didn’t look at their balance sheet. Best for any interested company to wait for bankruptcy and snatch up their huge membership. Perhaps another company like Bowflex or that exercise mirror company could jump in.
Again, if companies focused on their core competencies and did not try to be everything to everyone, they would be much more successful. Their treadmill (and subsequent recalls on it) killed them. Their bike was their golden goose. How a company that sells a bicycle connected to an iPad for 2K and gets people to pay $40 a month in perpetuity can lose money is beyond me.
I agree ending the mask mandate now was a preemptive strike against the bill to limit his health emergency powers. We’ll see where that bill goes now.
Ending the mandate was expedient for political purposes. It was becoming untenable. Look at the places with mandates vs those without. NJ feed worse than many. People want to be free of the mask police. Even AOC escaped down to Florida for a bit.
Masks and Fauci and the like are now loser positions.
Eddie,
I don’t invest in anything that does not have 5 years of 15% or more earnings and sales growth. Earnings and stock price tend to move hand in hand. I don’t weigh forecasts much. I weigh past performance almost entirely. Then there is the macro environment changes and you have to guess how they will impact earnings.
Fast, I think Lib and I do well…I’m certainly not doing it as a hobby, lol.
Ultimately most things, including our own sad bags of blood and bones, are simply worth the present value of future cash flows. Pretty important to look at these factors when looking at investments.
Don’t believe so? Get flattened at a crosswalk with your lawyer son. See how much your heirs get in a payout for each of you. Even human lives are valued on future cash flows every day in court rooms all over the country…not to mention shitty, pie-in-the-sky speculative companies run by starry-eyed twenty somethings….
10-Yr Bond
1.9610
My strategy is a selection of core index funds, a medium basket of seasoned blue chips, a few ETFs on the side and 10 year plus time horizon. Oh, and some Silk City Bourbon on occasion. :)
U.S. posts record trade deficit in 2021.
How are those tariffs working?
All my money is in barrels.
Left,
And lastly looking at demented grandma’s portfolio moves last night it appears she is selling out of TWTR. She dumped over 3m shares yesterday, 1.1% of the portfolio. Big trade.
So many investors have taken there money out of all ARK ‘s ETF’s that she is scrambling for cash, she has been selling for weeks, If I remember correctly clients have withdrawn 1.5 billion, and if they are smart will continue that trend.
Eddie. Sounds like a sane plan for an insane man.
“All my money is in barrels.”
You didn’t here about Biden’s prohibition plan?
the real outflows haven’t even started yet. The dead cat bounce in garbage like Robinhood gave her temporary reprieve. What’s more important is, she’s out of cash now. She has to sell liquid names like Twitter and buy into the smaller garbage like Hood to try to keep that afloat.
LW,
A real hard facts post there.
Lib,
From yesterday’s texts. These are nice kids, want them to have a good life. They are already mired in crap. And your sis is very lucky.
Just wait till this stuff gets into the wild. And it will. Those you trust to protect you can sometimes turn rancid:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/07/israel-state-inquiry-to-look-into-alleged-police-use-of-pegasus-spyware
Boom
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/apple-announces-tap-to-pay-on-iphone.html
That’s huge, the fact that they started with Stripe and not Square/Block is shocking.
I’m cool with it and all, not my monkey, not my circus, but not sure if this aligns with pure GOP values.
Unless they are changing.
They seem fun. Wonder if Stan is going to have any Stan’s after this:
‘We’re not ashamed’: Republican Oregon Governor favorite admits he and his wife belonged to SWINGERS group after saucy private Facebook posts were leaked
Oregon Gubernatorial candidate Stan Pulliam (R), 40, was outed as a swinger when Facebook posts and a photo from Portland’s Erotic Ball in 2011 surfaced
Ever sit outside a restaurant with shades on, a glass of your favorite beverage and assess the talent going by…… do you buy? No, but you have your evaluative process based on years of experience. Is your evaluation in 2022 the same as 2012? 2002? No? Why? Sometimes you see things coming from a mile away. Sometimes you see things that are earnest and good faith attempts, but you project out into the future, and you are cynical that what you see in 2022 will be different in 2027, 2032.
Fast Eddie says:
February 8, 2022 at 9:27 am
I wonder if most of you guys dissect individual companies’ revenue and forecasts to profit from it or just for the sake of determining whether your prediction(s) will be correct.
BOA sees 7 rate hikes in 2022, and another 4 in 2023, and says stocks will be fine! That should be interesting if that is in fact what happens.
Phoenix
It’s Oregon. That might help his campaign.
Chi,
Thanks for the post the other day. It was what I needed.
Are there any politicians with a traditional set of morals? Not that I really care about your sexual proclivities. But for once, let people know before you run and get caught. It’s like, in order to run you must first order Chinese Food family style.
Pick 1 from group A
Prior drunk driving violation (Vehicular manslaughter optional)
Unique sexual fetish
Closeted gay relationship
Racist costume from college (blackface optional)
Former drug addiction
Pick 2 from Group B
Rape allegation (guilty verdict optional)
Ethics violation
Smoked pot but didn’t inhale
Groped multiple campaign workers (gender optional)
At least thee prior marriages (gender optional)
Beast1ality (gender optional)
Lib,
Great post.
But there is so much more on the menu than what you listed.
What is normal anymore?
Or was it ever?
Well we all know about Mr Brady, but what was June Cleaver, Maryann and Ginger into?
ChiFi,
Ever sit outside a restaurant with shades on, a glass of your favorite beverage and assess the talent going by…… do you buy?
It depends on what she’s selling. ;)
Lib, hopped into some CARR. Didn’t do a lot of research, starter position, but well received earnings, very upbeat commentary from CEO on recent acquisition filling an important product line gap, and not unreasonable valuation. May not hit your criteria as I think it was a spinout recently. FWIW.
Eddie,
It’s never good when you are paying for it. My take.
You can have the free classes, but you still have to buy the bike.
Hahaha. Now there is a good kick in the spokes.
Peloton stock surges 12% as the company replaces co-founder John Foley as CEO and slashes 2,800 jobs: Laid-off workers are offered a free year of fitness classes (worth $468) after finding out they’d been let go
Brother, the one thing we’ve learned over the last few years is that it is cheaper to rent than own…..
“It’s never good when you are paying for it. My take.”
It’s never good when you are paying for it. My take.
My friend, you are always paying for it whether you think so or not.
Will look into CARR later today. Super busy.
lol, this state announcement of masks ending in a month is a joke. Obviously, no awareness of how kids work. You tell them it’s over, they assume it’s over now. Every kid is walking around with them hanging off their ears. Not even chin diapering at this point.
Peloton stock surges 12% as the company replaces co-founder John Foley as CEO and slashes 2,800 jobs:
2,800 jobs is only a 20% rif? How the hell do they have 10k employees. What are they doing? I know for a fact a huge number of folks are outsourced and not even part of this.
Truckers are stepping up their game.
TORONTO — The busiest crossing on the U.S.-Canada land border was obstructed on Tuesday as demonstrations against vaccine mandates and other coronavirus public health measures that have paralyzed Canada’s capital spread to a crucial trade artery.
The Canada Border Services Agency said Tuesday that the Ambassador Bridge, which links Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, was “temporarily closed” for passengers and commercial traffic. The Michigan Department of Transportation also said the border was closed. Windsor Police said “limited traffic” was being allowed into the United States.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/08/freedom-convoy-trucker-protests-canada-trudeau/?itid=hp-top-table-main
Amgen …. FTW!
I knew a guy and his girlfriend (later his wife) who were swingers. It was the girl who seemed to crave it, actually. I knew the guy because I once worked at the same company (he barely worked and was a total slacker, but he did recommend me for my job interview) and because he was a pseudo-fan of Ayn Rand. The sort I’m embarrassed to be associated with, who confuses libertine with libertarian. Anyway he’s a relatively short, chubby guy with lots of pimples from smoking too much pot, and is a joker. His girlfriend/wife is smarter, went to Wharton MBA, and even brought this loser along with her while at Wharton and then to her job as a mutual fund analyst. While she made money he tried to stream a radio show or podcasts or something, maybe he sold pot on the side. I met her several times over the years and she seemed pretty nice, prettier and smarter than he deserved for sure. But she stuck with him. Anyway at some point he told me that she was really into three-ways with two guys, sandwich-style, and I think later he told me about them being part of the swinger lifestyle somewhere out in the midwest. This was before the internet pron showed me how that even would physically work. She alone was pretty enough to be tempting back in the day, but not tempting enough to be in a room naked near that guy. I just found her on Linkedin, looks like her career regressed, she got out of being an equities analyst and ended up with a string of jobs as a loan officer during the real estate bubble, then in corp accounting, and more recently as a portfolio consultant at Schwab. Proof that smoking pot kills your drive.
Nearly every habitual pot smoker I knew in my 20s was the entrepreneurial type and would one day change the world and get rich beyond their wildest dream. Thirty years later they either are still smoking and still believe they will change the world or they stopped smoking and and still believe they will change the world.
Fast,
My friend, you are always paying for it whether you think so or not.
That is one thing I learned after after two marriages and dating 26 women in between the marriages. One way or the other you pay.
Way back in the early 90s this guy was a very inexperienced stockbroker just out of school. He’d talk about how great freedom and capitalism was but he’d leave the office at 3:50pm to watch Star Trek reruns, then smoke pot, listen to the Beatles, and play spades with his friends, then talk about philosophy while high. He got fired because he opened an account with a client placing a trade on a penny stock before receiving the money from said client. The stock fell the next day and the client said “what trade?” leaving him stuck with the loss.
I only played cards at his place once. Didn’t smoke, didn’t have an opinion about what Beatles album was best, didn’t have a three-way with him and his girlfriend. But that might not have been true for most of his friends.
Non-sequitur: my mom is reaching her 80th birthday and is spending time marshalling family history as a project. She has one living cousin on my grandfather’s side who is her peer, and that woman sent her a picture of my mom’s grandparents, aunts and uncle’s and some cousins (now Vilnius, Lithuania). There were 11 people in the picture. One of the people in the picture was the peer’s mother. She was liberated from a camp. Everyone else was killed. My grandfather died in 1949 in the US. He couldn’t get anyone out. I think it actually killed him eventually.
I may not be JJ but damn do I have a solid swinger story.
My understanding was that a good chunk of that Peloton workforce were delivery and setups. I learned today PTON will outsource delivery and setup duties to a yet unnamed third party company.
At this point I have to wonder who isn’t some part Polish on this board!?
I’m not, but my kids are
Social Justice . . . .
I enjoyed the video linked below. Good description of social justice and views on where this far-leftism is going.
40 mins+, so it is a “sit down with some chips on the couch” video. I enjoyed every minute.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J10_2natxys
Eddie
I think EX is getting paid for it.
Such a bizarre story. Boy and girl steals over $3b current street value of bitcoin, girl makes terrible rap videos, boy and girl get arrested. Who will the Feds arrest when they discover tons of people have been ripped off and persuaded to “invest” in garbage assets?
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/crypto-laundering-scheme-doj-1296783/
See link for “rap video”.
How can you be that smart to steal that many bitcoin yet be so dumb to launder it while sitting in the US?
CARR looks more like a short-term play, rather than a long-term to me Lefty.
WRK looks to be on the move hopefully. I made my purchase at 43.
3:35 sure if pot is your only chemical – that’s amateur hour baby
The real fun comes from all the other stuff that tunes the motor.
I find early to bed early to Russ a formula for cultivating drive.
Not everyone is destined for lifetime Corp climbing.
“rise” not russ
ChFi 81 year-old dad compiled a very nice book of family history.
He told me he thinks no one really cares. I think he created an amazing
Document.
That WeWork documentary is mind-blowing, what the serious f*ck.
Adam is a Crypto huckster now some kind of carbon credit blockchain scam. Check out his Andrew Ross Sorkin interview from a few months ago. He spoke right after the SPAC merger, still called it an IPO, never apologized to the employees, he had the original founders had a “small party” when they IPOed bla bla bla. He may never run another reputable company again but with his billions will be a wealthy and relaxed pot head for the rest of his life.
Wow, Wayne was fast to say masks are coming off, whew.
Lib, yeah nice pop in the morning yesterday on WRK and good call. Looking at piggybacking…feel like saving me an hour of my life? Have you looked at supply chain, exposure of inputs to inflation, and why the 25% pop in share price in 1H last year? TYIA.
Also Lib, watch FB. I know it’s super volatile now and there will be changes/challenges but she’s a real company at 16x or so forward….there is a time to dip a toe in….you are around an area of major support with a pretty hard line at 200 (14.4x…). Strong support at open, strong close yesterday around the 216-220 levels, pull up a five minute, three day candlestick chart you’ll see…on a different scale things seem to be settling down and trying to turn…if she goes through 224, and then 227, especially with emphasis she may be back off to the races at least short term.
You could throw some on with a tight stop and treat it as a trade, make it a buy-write at 240 and you’ll get a 16% (45% annualized) if she hits that level by June with 13.00 of premium (6%) to offset any decline. Or I can redo that trade from the other day if you want to get a little more aggressive on returns and downside protection. Option prices in this name are elevated, good time to write some premium however you do it.
Full disclosure, I’m in it with fixed gains locked in all the way down to 174…so bullish, but with a very different profile from the trades above….
No One
That rap video looked like something from The Office or Parks and Rec. Or a really bad SNL skit.
Can’t figure out if she was serious or was that satire. It was definitely cringey
“Spearfish your password, all your funds transferred.”
Oops.
Next time have Lin write your lyrics. These are an admission of guilt.
She spoke with her accountant and they decided they have enough money for now. Then spoke with Mitch who agreed that if they do this they can convince the public that they are all about doing the right thing, while keeping all of their millions gained already.
“Nancy Pelosi finally caves and moves to BAN stock trading in Congress: Democratic Speaker u-turns on members buying shares despite her husband raking in millions and defending the practice just days ago”
She’s going to have a press conference.
Recall the husband made the millions by going long near term stock options in individual names.
That strategy is high risk and has an expected value of zero a long term investment horizon.
Bankers (and their families) have been forbidden to trade in individual option names since I joined decades ago because of the risk and the high asymmetry of returns (ie, the trade is ripe for insider trading abuse). Financial journalists (and their families) likewise are barred from any individual stock transactions at all.
Yet somehow Congress has looser standards for itself than the bankers its regulates and the talking heads on CNBC.
Real journalists covering the White House would ask how many multiple millions raked in using this high risk strategy that should have produced huge losses are going to be surrendered by Pelosi.
Bets on that question coming up?
Or is MSM going to soft relative softballs and allow Pelosi to preen about ‘doing the right thing’ going forward?
How does one become an elitist while claiming to be committed to the proletariat? Asking for a friend.
Leftwing,
On WRK, the 25 percent increase in share price 1st half of last year was most likely due to increased demand for packaging due to covid.
What impresses me the most is management’s confidence at being able to pass through increased costs and improve margin simultaneously easily compensating for impact of inflation. Best of all, their main energy use (in their mills) is NG which is still pretty cheap. They are not immune to transport issues, but use a lot of rail which is beneficial. Balance sheet looks pretty strong. Only red flag is some debt but reasonable at 41% DtoC. It’s relative value is absolutely astounding right here.
Biggest thing going for them is packaging is transitioning from plastic to paper (climate change) and plastic packaging (competition) was a former headwind. They are the paper packaging best of breed. So plastic transition in industry went from headwind to tailwind. Inputs are pretty much recycled and virgin paper. No shortage of either nor great risk. The more I research, the more I like. I think this margin expansion should make EPS pop more than management is saying. It’s a pretty tight ship and they recently even handled a ransomware attack pretty well.
And now for real craziness, Valueline projects:
2024-26 PROJECTIONS
Ann’l Total
Price Gain Return
High 140 (+210%) 34%
Low 95 (+110%) 22%
From 10-K
Expectations for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 and Fiscal 2022
In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, we expect a sequential decline in net sales and earnings from the fourth
quarter of fiscal 2021 reflecting the normal season sequential volume declines in many of our businesses and
scheduled mill maintenance outages. We expect lower volume with three fewer shipping days during the first
quarter of fiscal 2022, although in line with shipping days in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Due to delays in mill
maintenance in fiscal 2021 for items such as COVID-19 and the Ransomware Incident, we expect approximately
200,000 tons of maintenance downtime, the peak maintenance outage period for fiscal 2022. We expect
sequential cost inflation driven primarily by higher natural gas, transportation, and recycled and virgin fiber costs
along with increased health insurance costs prior to the annual reset of employee deductibles. However, we
expect the flow through of the previously published price increases we are implementing to more than offset
inflation.
In fiscal 2022, we expect solid demand across most of our end markets and continued flow through of the
previously published price increases. We expect record sales and operating profit despite continued commodity
input cost inflation and productivity unavoidably affected by supply chain challenges and higher labor costs that
may persist through the fiscal year. We expect the implementation of previously published price increases will
outpace inflation despite our expectation for higher recycled fiber, energy, virgin fiber, chemical and transportation
costs. In addition, we expect to benefit from the fiscal 2021 completion of strategic investments such as the new
paper machine at our Florence, SC mill and our Tres Barras mill upgrade. We expect our planned mill
maintenance outage schedule will be approximately 100,000 tons higher than in fiscal 2021.
With the completion of certain of our strategic projects in fiscal 2021, including the paper machine at our
Florence, SC mill and the Tres Barras mill upgrade project, we expect capital expenditures of approximately $1.0
billion in fiscal 2022.
On FB,
Investment clubs owns it. Still have a profit, but worried about it’s best days having been in the past due to falling subscribership and clear impact on add dollars. They still haven’t figured out how to monetize Whatsap and Instagram has way too much competition from TikTok and Snap and whatever is coming next. Club sold about 25% due only to fact that valuation is impossibly cheap here (which is what you noticed). Though if next quarters earnings show continued lack of growth, esp. in new subscribes and ad revenue, then put a fork in it. If just a temporary hiccup, then smart of us not to sell off position completely
We did start a position in MRK. Looking really cheap here.
With recession looming, members of congress opt-out of insider trading.
What a surprise.
Absolutely no morals. Any of them.
We live in a banana republic.
How does one become an elitist while claiming to be committed to the proletariat? Asking for a friend.
By becoming a politician.
Start small in your local town. Work your way up.
Or be the offspring of one.
Or a celebrity.
There is a box in the corner, deposit your morals in there as not only do you not need them, they become detrimental to your future career.
Ex: for you…. you are welcomed..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID0AzfA8ehw
On a side note, I am down to just a few more episodes of Game of Thrones. I’m in the last season. It’s been quite entertaining and the sets/wardrobe/scenery has been amazing. I think the “Battle of the B.astards” might have upstaged the “Battle of Stirling” in Braveheart. Both worthy, hard to decide. lol. I haven’t seen the battle with the Night Walkers yet. ;)
How does one become an elitist while claiming to be committed to the proletariat? Asking for a friend.
Isn’t this just the definition of politics?
impossibly cheap? based on what? P/E ratio? That is a rule of thumb…. it is right where it should be for multiple reasons: (1) economic; (2) regulatory; (3) reputational; and probably most important – (4) agency, with Zuckerberg’s supervoting shares providing an impenetrable fortress around control. It is so bad that they are essentially tossing their founding name and ticker in the garbage…… think about that one. The only way out is to find the next wave of innovation with VR. Everyone hates them though. Everyone wants them to fail.
Libturd says:
February 9, 2022 at 10:58 am
Investment clubs owns it. Still have a profit, but worried about it’s best days having been in the past due to falling subscribership and clear impact on add dollars. They still haven’t figured out how to monetize Whatsap and Instagram has way too much competition from TikTok and Snap and whatever is coming next. Club sold about 25% due only to fact that valuation is impossibly cheap here (which is what you noticed).
Lib, dipped a toe in WRK. TY. Could be a little overbought near term and may be able to pick up in the 45s again shortly but I’m light holds looking through to the end of the year so good start.
Chi,
The comparisons are similar to Musk and Tesla.
I only toss the term impossibly cheap based on this being a hiccup. I tried to convince the club to sell it all, but some are sold on the potential of whatsapp. Then again, we have a few members with the Latin and Indian flava and they know how popular that app is outside of the US. So your opinion is that the company was always overvalued due to all of those reasons listed. I’ve been saying Tesla is the greatest short ever since it around 400 for many of those same reasons.
We both know, big names don’t always behave rationally in the short run.
Appreciate the opinion as always. Will be fun to see who is right with neither of us heavily vested.
Left.
I really like the WRK story. It’s more of a Buffet type play. Large Cap. Well managed. Not buying the product, but the box the product goes in (what did he used to say? Buy the shovel, not the mining company). It’s also passes the environmental test. Decent barriers to entry and a dumbfounded headwind that is only helped by the Pandemic, but not dependent on it. I think this is a set and forget stock.
Isn’t this just the definition of politics?
I don’t know. But if it is, then Trump, being labeled a populist, is not a politician and not an elitist and did have the working class people’s best interest at heart.
I think Trump’s only interests were that of his own. So much grift. He used the populist strategy to get there. To this day, I don’t think he personally believes half of it. Then again, he was a compulsive liar, so it really didn’t matter.
I like it. Agree on all the above. Before hopping in hard need to do more research on the ability to manage costs re: customer base…assuming the big consumer product companies are their customers and they are getting hit with inflation, will they lean hard on WRK pricing…what mitigates that risk for WRK…otherwise, another one of your nice hidden-in-plain-view-but-nobody-sees finds…..
chi, reverse engineer it for yourself….how bad does the p/l need to get to bring the forward multiple to a level beyond which you would not buy?
In other words, I think most can agree that if FB continues on its historical trajectory it is stupid cheap at 16x forward….so where does a reset in earnings intersect with a new multiple for a buy?
Earnings off a whopping 20% from here pushing the multiple to 20x? Would that new multiple even be above the SPX? Should they be trading below the SPX multiple? I mean right now they are at a Kellogg multiple, are they a 2% real organic growth consumer products company exposed to material costs inflation?
Zuck is a benefit, not a drag. He will engender huge negative feelings because he is active…Page/Brin are MIA. He will engender huge negative feelings because he doesn’t fall into the SV line of self flagellation on platform use…
I personally see it as a buying opportunity when emotions overtake numbers….for instance look at the emotion from a well respected finance guy below ;)
“It is so bad that they are essentially tossing their founding name and ticker in the garbage…… think about that one. The only way out is to find the next wave of innovation with VR. Everyone hates them though. Everyone wants them to fail.”
Hamptons bartender who is suing Don Lemon for sexual assault brands CNN ‘a predator-protecting machine, rife with perverts’ and reveals he was offered $500,000 to settle.
The righteous, left1st elites:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10282861/Hamptons-bartender-accused-Don-Lemon-sexual-assault-brand-CNN-predator-protecting-machine.html
Left: here is a video reflecting my take of Feb action in FB on a technical analysis basis.
Also, when using a P/E, isn’t the implicit assumption that the E is steady state?
Recognize that this is an ad platform in a non recessionary environment. They should be minting money. However, AAPL fucked them hard and long in the ass.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NnX99Ks_RRY
chi, nice video, but recall history is observable and fact…so no disputes there.
I’m not disagreeing with your analysis, I’m intrigued by FB around these prices because I AGREE with your analysis…
So on P/E, yes, so back to my original question…what level of E reset gets you interested at these prices?
Earnings come off 25% – poof, gonzo – and that is your new basis you still only get to a 20x forward multiple….
Or do you think this company loses a quarter of their earnings AND goes into endemic decline from there?
Bold ass call if so…
Let’s go further…hit them for a third of their earnings…..decimated……that takes the multiple to 24x….buy or sell at that valuation?
What do you propose, they lose 50% of their earnings for a 32x multiple?….there you go, at that assumption I’m a seller. No interest in holding this company at 32x…
Think I’ll go with probabilities though…that a haircut of 50% to earnings is highly unlikely and at 16x right now there is a lot of room for a substantial earnings reset AND a very reasonable new forward multiple.
YMMV
“AAPL fucked them hard and long in the ass.”
Well, you are certainly not plagiarizing Cramer. Maybe KGB from Rounders, but definitely not someone from CNBC or Bloomberg.
“It hurts, doesn’t it? Your hopes dashed, your dreams down the toilet. And your fate is sitting right beside you.”
The minute US passes GDPR-like data protection laws, Facebook’s ad business craters.
You would think Facebook would have some value simply in that 50% of the population seems to spend about 50% of their time there.
I’ve kind of bored of it and check in once a day for the most part. For me, the best use is the birthday reminder.
I do a play a couple of iPhone games and appreciate how they have monetized their platform through tiny purchases which are either consumable or permanent. Facebook is so ripe for augmented reality yet there is none.
No One
Razzlekhan has other video. Not safe for work. Or your ears. the comments are great
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGkz_lQhpyM
She also freestyle videos on TikTok someone has compiled into a YouTube video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3Y6C8pyQOQ&t=73s
Chicago
That’s an awesome video.
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg says his office is “trying to figure out how to stop people who are really going store to store and just taking.”
Who would have imagined that the sjw approach to criminal justice would lead to outright theft? Surely never happened before in a place like San Francisco.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/another-shoplifter-targets-nyc-trader-joes-in-east-village/
People have had enough with the lockdowns and mandates.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10494795/Now-Freedom-Convoys-hit-FRANCE-protesters-waving-Canadian-flags-set-Paris.html
“For me, the best use is the birthday reminder”
Who in their right mind gives a website the correct birthdate?
Apparently most people…
“The minute US passes GDPR-like data protection laws, Facebook’s ad business craters.”
Maybe. Maybe not.
But back to valuation. If that is the case so do the businesses of other consumer net companies. Yet their valuations haven’t come in anywhere close to FB.
Guys, I’m not pushing FB, it’s not like I’m earning commissions anywhere from all this…also, I’ve been clear, I am long but have a specific gain locked in down to 174, so even I’m not yet long FB in a situation where delta is 1 (ie, taking dollar for dollar gain or loss on the shares).
But…the longer, harder, and more vocally everyone shouts this down without any analytical valuation backup the more it demonstrates to me what the price/volume charts are starting to say…people are pissed and doing a wholesale dump…
The stock trades on average recently 20m shares a day…On the last four days of down price movement she moved over 450m shares…..that’s at least 20% of float….I’m better than OK with that (hello, VIAC, good to see you again old friend….). Yes, the volumes could have been a bit smoother since earnings and we’re only days, not weeks, out of ER in a volatile market….so I’m not ruling out a retest through 220 and even toward 200 but……everyone wants to buy when there is blood in streets and you’ve had a 27% one day decline with 20% of shareholders throwing in the towel….
What more do you want with that than the eighth largest company in the world with $117B of sales, a 48% FCF margin, and $47B (that’s a B) of cash trading at 16x forward?
I mean with just the cash they have hanging around on the balance sheet they can write a check for both Hess and Delta. Or both Kellogg and MGM. Or the NASDAQ and Wayfair…..
Issues going forward? Of course. It’s an equity in an uncertain market with company specific concerns. At $220 a share, especially if she runs toward or breaks $200?………
It’s Wednesday:
‘Absolutely repulsive’: Outlaw slams cops who abuse Philly’s injured-on-duty benefits
https://www.inquirer.com/news/outlaw-philadelphia-police-heart-lung-abuse-krasner-kenney-20220207.html
Joyce
Why aren’t they investigated for fraud?
HMB
Cause they are the ones who do the investigations on crime.
You don’t actually expect them to convict each other do you?
NFL Player Preferences (FabMax Edition):
Commanders’ Jonathan Allen wants to have dinner with Hitler: ‘He’s a military genius’
By Ryan Glasspiegel
Jonathan Allen, a defensive tackle for the Washington Commanders, listed Adolf Hitler among a trio of people he’d like to have dinner with.
Allen, 27, was doing an “ask me anything” on his Twitter account, and answered a query regarding which three guests he’d invite for dinner.
“My grandad, hitler, and micheal [sic] Jackson,” Allen answered.
Why Hitler?
“He’s a military genius and I love military tactics but honestly I would want to pick his brain as to why he did what he did,” Allen tweeted. “I’m also assuming that the people I’ve chosen have to answer my questions honestly.”
Allen has since deleted his tweets referencing Hitler and apologized.
“Early I tweeted something that probably hurt people and I apologize about what I said,” Allen wrote. “I didn’t express properly what I was trying to say and I realize it was dumb!”
For you Eddie. And anyone else that can handle a freak show. Don’t have the volume up too loud on this one:
Your smugglers.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1491363288659087360
Rabid Capitalism.
Don’t like the free market: Call your legislator and demand people work for less.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96946
They do. Too pay for FL teachers? $39k
Seems the issue in both cases is the overly burdensome administration on top of the employees…
For nurses, the article is focused on the take of the nurse staffing agencies. For teachers, it’s the school districts and NJ mandates.
The actual nurses and teachers on the ground are getting screwed.
Cut a minimum of 1/3 of administration/staff expense, eliminate Abbott, and reform special ed and I would gladly support an immediate 50% increase in pay for teachers in my District. Even if my individual taxes went up.
Popped open my District’s budget. Impossible to find a clearly labelled Abbott expense. Despite that, taking the numbers they provide, regular instruction teachers’ salaries are 30% of revenue.
Special Ed teachers are 7.5%. Stated differently, reform of special ed out of mainstream high schools could give teachers an immediate 25% raise.
Benefits need to be on the table. At least given a market value. They come in at 50% of teachers’ salaries. And it appears that does not include any pension expense. Should be up to the teachers if they want ‘market rate’ retirements and health care, or more cash as compensation.
Why do I need three vice-principals for a District my size each with a staff?
Bottom line, you can’t skim off the top (Abbott), skim off the middle, and have enough left to actually pay the employees.
Leftwing,
Kid got all league honorable mention, which is great, considering he is a defensive defensemen with minimal points. Though, he definitely has the best plus minus on his team. Heck, I don’t thing he’s been on the ice for more than 5 goals against the entire season. What is incredible about the notice is that all of the coaches in the division vote on these awards and they usually just lazily choose the top scorers. The fact that my son’s defensive prowess was noticed by other coaches is pretty impressive. He is so strong on defense that our coach yells at him whenever he carries the puck into the offensive zone. It’s been a pretty strong season for both his high school and club team. His school team won their league regular season and the playoffs are just starting. In their playoff prep game, they knocked off Mahwah (#20) 5-2. We’ll see how far they go in the states. His Club team is headed to AA nationals in Michigan in March. Not too shabby.
As for Abbott funding. It does not show up in the budget because it’s a convoluted formula. 40% of school funding comes from your state income tax. Your property taxes pay for your own schools, but if you live in a middle to upper class town, you get little to no help from the state. In the cities with urban poor, the property taxes wouldn’t cover the school bills. So the state takes your and my state income tax and sends it to those communities. 40% of state income tax goes to school funding.
Congrats to your son. A solid stay at home defenseman is so key and so hard to find because every mom, dad, kid, and way too many coaches only focus on points which discourages kids from that role. Good luck in NJSIAA tourney, you guys make it to the semis I’ll come by Mennen/SMA, say hello, and buy you a beer next door.
Enjoy nationals. Quite an accomplishment. Still one of my kid’s favorite memories. When you’re out there grab a ‘game used puck’, anything that touched the ice, with the USA Hockey Nationals logo on it. Throw some hockey tape around it with the event, date, and a ‘Love Dad’. I have a Home Depot heavy duty storage bin filled with ‘kids memories’ type stuff from their youth. Broke that open when he was home over the holidays. He saw that puck, pulled back some real good times for him…
I have a bin of memories too. He’s never looked at it yet. Will be great to share with his partner (hopefully wife?) after college.