Experts offer milquetoast predictions, nothing you didn’t already know.

This is all you’ve got? Talk about bold predictions. From MarketWatch:

‘Home price growth may return to normalcy.’ 5 economists and real estate pros predict what will happen in the housing market in 2022

Prediction 1: Mortgage rates will rise

“Mortgage rates snapped upward in January as mortgage investors realized what the Fed intends to do, which is raise interest rates aggressively this year,” says Holden Lewis, home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet. “Now, mortgage rates are rising more gradually as markets wait for the Fed to clarify their timetable.”

Prediction 2: Home price growth may ‘return to normalcy’

Heym says the market is suffering from record-low inventory levels, which has driven prices to new highs even as the number of sales has declined. “I don’t expect this to change in the next few months as home builders can’t build houses fast enough to help the supply issue,” says Heym. Specifically, Yun says home prices are solidly higher by double-digit percentages compared to one ago. “However, with mortgage rates moving up and some home buyers getting priced out, home price growth will return to normalcy, to around 5% for all of 2022,” says Yun.

Prediction 3: Expect near-term bidding wars

The clock is also ticking as 2021 interest rate locks with 60-90 day expirations are set to mature any day. But what does this mean for buyers? Essentially, they’re rushing and overbidding on properties in the hopes of securing a low interest rate before the next Fed increase. “This is causing bidding war frenzies,” says Pierre Debbas, managing partner of real estate law firm Romer Debbas LLP. 

Prediction 4: It will still be a tough market for buyers though

Buyers will continue to have limited options in most areas as inventory will remain scarce, pros say. “Prices will continue to rise, which combined with higher mortgage rates, will drive some buyers out of the market,” says Heym. That said, it will continue to be a strong seller’s market, which means if you’ve been thinking about listing your home — there’s no time like the present. 

Prediction 5: But there are still wildcards

The big wildcard is the permanency of work-from-home policies or even hybrid models of employment. “That will lead to changes in residential locational choices with more households willing to buy a home farther away from job locations and home price growth therefore will be stronger in small towns and exurbs compared to downtown locations,” says Yun.

Prediction 6: Spring will bring more activity

With the spring home shopping season right around the corner, expect activity to heat up. “It’s likely inventory and sales will pick up over the next few months,” says Bachaud.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

143 Responses to Experts offer milquetoast predictions, nothing you didn’t already know.

  1. Hold my beer says:


  2. grim says:

    Good thing they hedged their position with #5. Never know about them there wildcards now.

  3. Bystander says:

    It is all fine..

    As of December 2021, US household debt totaled $14.89 trillion according to Moody’s Analytics, the highest level since Moody’s began tracking the category in 2005.
    The biggest driver of debt was not credit cards, but mortgage debt fueled by the housing boom.
    “The recent acceleration [in household debt] is due in significant part to much stronger mortgage debt growth, which goes to the surge in house prices,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, wrote in an email to CNN Busienss. “The acceleration in bankcard and consumer finance is largely due to very strong holiday sales and the increasing transaction demand for cards.”

  4. grim says:

    Speaking of cards, just got the Apple Card, mainly because I’m just an fanboi, but also because I like to watch the consumer fintech space. It’s really very well done. Probably the best customer/user experience of any card platform I’ve seen to date. Seamless, the level of visibility in the integrated wallet app is better than anything I’ve seen from the major players. In terms of gaming the rewards system, this wouldn’t excite Stu one bit, that ain’t the point here (I just snagged 150k United miles on the Business Card – going to Puerto Rico in September, doing $20k spend is easy on the business side). This super simplistic, low effort model is the bread and butter of the new fintechs (lemonade, robin hood, etc)

    Interesting the the application side is basically immediate, faster than I’ve ever seen anywhere. In seconds you have an approved card to use, with the most minimal of application data (I didn’t even have to provide a social security number). They’ve already integrated an Affirm-style split payments model, right out of the box, irrelevant of provider (It’s a credit card, you can argue that’s the point, but this is a spender-perception thing).

    What’s really slick is their 1%/2%/3% cashback bonuses stay in the Apple ecosystem. Not that anyone really cares, but Goldman runs the credit card side, and Greendot runs the Debit/Apple Cash side, and the spend bonus goes from Goldman to Greendot, where it’s far easier to use in-network, as opposed to something like a basic balance credit.

  5. 3b says:

    Number 5 is a given in my view. The 5 day a week in the office for many employees and going forward for most in my view is a thing of the past. I know 3 young attorneys (mid to late 30s all left their respective north Jersey law firms as they did not offer WFH/ hybrid; other firms were fighting to grab them. When my company which is fully remote did their many surveys conducted by outside consultants on the firms work policies it was the millennial demographic that all wanted remote/ hybrid. One of my HR friends says the next hot topic will be picking choosing what days/ hours they work and the 4 day workweek. We will see where all that goes. One thing for sure however, the pre- pandemic work schedule of 5 days in the office is for many a thing of the past.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    The big wildcard is the permanency of work-from-home policies or even hybrid models of employment. “That will lead to changes in residential locational choices with more households willing to buy a home farther away from job locations and home price growth therefore will be stronger in small towns and exurbs compared to downtown locations,” says Yun.

    Why does anyone take anyone take anything the NAR has to say as sound advice? It’s like a talking muppet head on another useless show the day after a game, muttering a bunch of nonsense pretending to be savvy and in the know. The NAR makes observations after the fact and wallows in their psychotic glee that they still manage to get a piece of the transaction.

    And remember just a few short years ago when the prediction was that the younger crowd was forever flocking toward urban areas? Sure, pay 700K for a cramped, two bedroom, pre-war walk up in Hoboken with a 2nd kid on the way. All of sudden, there’s fist fights on the grassy lawns of sugar maple splits while fat Karen, the house tour guide won’t reveal the highest price while urging one to keep bidding until the last kidney is sold.

    Two industries that need to die a miserable death; the meddling real estate thievery syndicate and the democrat party. I’m not sure who’s better at stealing money.

  7. Chicago says:

    10 197 bps

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    U.S. inflation accelerated in January, with prices across a wide range of goods and services soaring further amid lingering shortages and supply chain disruptions.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning registered a 7.5% annual gain in January. Consensus economists were looking for a 7.3% rise, according to Bloomberg data. This represented the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December.

    The democrats need to steal more money from the productive class and send weekly checks to the riff raff. That’ll fix it.

  9. grim says:

    We’re going to wash that debt right out of your hair, going to wash that debt right out of your hair.

  10. Ex says:

    a vast majority of Trump / GOPeons are living in squalor on public assistance

  11. Libturd says:

    From yesterday’s thread,

    Kid got all league honorable mention, which is great, considering he is a defensive defensemen with minimal points. Though, he definitely has the best plus minus on his team. Heck, I don’t thing he’s been on the ice for more than 5 goals against the entire season. What is incredible about the notice is that all of the coaches in the division vote on these awards and they usually just lazily choose the top scorers. The fact that my son’s defensive prowess was noticed by other coaches is pretty impressive. He is so strong on defense that our coach yells at him whenever he carries the puck into the offensive zone. It’s been a pretty strong season for both his high school and club team. His school team won their league regular season and the playoffs are just starting. In their playoff prep game, they knocked off Mahwah (#20) 5-2. We’ll see how far they go in the states. His Club team is headed to AA nationals in Michigan in March. Not too shabby.

    As for Abbott funding. It does not show up in the budget because it’s a convoluted formula. 40% of school funding comes from your state income tax. Your property taxes pay for your own schools, but if you live in a middle to upper class town, you get little to no help from the state. In the cities with urban poor, the property taxes wouldn’t cover the school bills. So the state takes your and my state income tax and sends it to those communities. 40% of state income tax goes to school funding.

  12. Juice Box says:

    Inflation is going to be much much higher too..

    WSJ today

    The average U.S. household is spending an additional $250 a month because of inflation that is rising at its fastest rate in nearly 40 years, a new economic analysis showed.

    The squeeze stems from higher prices across a range of products and services, including cars, gasoline, furniture and groceries.

    Inflation surged in the last year, hitting 7% in December as strong demand collided with pandemic-related limits on production and transportation, creating shortages and driving up prices.

    “A lot of people are hurting because of high inflation. $250 a month—that’s a big burden,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics who conducted the analysis. “It really hammers home the point of ‘what is the cost of inflation?’”

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    I wonder what I’ll get delivered first; my Obammy phone or my O’Biden crack pipe.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not arguing with you or being a dick, just pointing out the reality. How many companies actually abandoned offices? Why are they continuing to buy or leases office space? Writing is on the wall. They are not going to let go, just not showing their hand publicly until the labor market turns in their favor. Money don’t lie, they would have all abandoned future office projects, but didn’t. 4 day work week is the norm…it was already here before the pandemic and will continue to be the norm in the future. They want to see your face and want face to face interaction with their employees at least a couple days a week.

    3b says:
    February 10, 2022 at 8:16 am

  15. Libturd says:

    Was at an Asian supermarket yesterday (first time I’ve stepped into retail in ages) at 1:30pm. Place was empty, but that’s not my point. Everything in the store is at least $1 higher than it was the last time I went. Coconut milk used to be 3 for $5. It’s now 2 for $4.50. The produce was impossibly expensive. It used to be dirt cheap in these places. Meats and seafood didn’t seem to have increased in price as much at least. Inflation is definitely high.

    On the WFH tip. I have one member (the one I don’t trust to WFH) who is still slated to work in the office when our company decides to return. We have already closed one of our two city locations. Well, our physical resources director told me they are moving my one guy from the old office to the new and I needed to let him know. So of course when I told him, he asked if he could be permanent WFH. I told him we should wait to look into it when we are closer to reopening the office to deal with it. So I let my manager know of this employee’s request and he said every single one who was slated to return to the office who has been told of a possible return has asked to continue to WFH permanently. Not hybrid. Full work from home. Every single one. My manager thinks those slated to return will return hybrid. Either 3/2 or 2/3 in the office versus home.

  16. Chicago says:

    10 199

  17. 3b says:

    Pumps: I won’t argue with you either to save the board. I thought you were not around this week and assumed safe to post without waking you. That being said, 4 day work week was not the norm in fact it was rare.

    As for companies renting office space, again I never said every person in every company was going to work from home every day and it was all going to happen at once. Furthermore there has been multiple articles in the WSJ , NY Times, Barron’s, and Fortune on cities plans for the use of empty office buildings in their cities , housing etc. I close with office space vacancies are at their highest levels in north Jersey and Fairfield Co. Its all a process Pumps , it’s not happening all at once or overnight, but that’s where it’s going. I will leave it there, and end the topic for the day.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    A grant program funded by the Biden administration will furnish syringes and “safe smoking kits” among other items as a means to advancing equity.

    The deadline for the $30 million program is Monday, with the Department of Health and Human Services distributing funds to nonprofit groups and local governments. Among the items the grant will pay for are syringes and “safe smoking kits/supplies.”

    Yet another move by the progressive left to pilfer money for their personal interests by using throngs of the depleted class.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’ve been here, 3b. Just not posting much because I know no one wants to hear it. What can you do.

    On another note, looks like bull traps still exist. This past week was a big bull trap. Ouch.

  20. Juice Box says:

    This is what I mentioned the other day about cost push inflation. US Oil output alone is nearly 2 million barrels a day lower than pre-pandemic. The spending to ramp it up is just not there.

    WS today.

    The supply-demand imbalance that developed in the oil market during the pandemic.

    Demand for oil is outstripping supply, with little promise of relief ahead

    Americans are paying about twice as much for gasoline now as they were early in the Covid-19 pandemic. And the high price of fuel is costing consumers away from the gas pump, too, contributing to decades-high inflation on a range of goods and services.

    When oil becomes more expensive, so does everything else. And $20 doesn’t go as far in a car’s fuel tank.

    How did we get here?
    The run-up in gasoline prices was spurred by a supply-demand imbalance that developed in the oil market during the pandemic. Analysts have said that already-high crude prices could reach $100 a barrel this year, which doesn’t bode well for what Americans pay at the pump or transportation costs throughout the economy. Before we examine the extended outlook for oil and gasoline, let’s review the market forces that pushed crude prices to their highest level in years.

    Demand bounced back faster than expected, flipping the imbalance with supply.
    With demand oustripping supply, crude prices rose to their highest levels in years.
    Why hasn’t supply kept up with demand?
    Despite rising consumption and dwindling inventories, producers have been slow to restore output to pre-pandemic levels. Spending on exploration and production has remained near its lowest level since the start of the shale drilling boom. The number of rigs drilling in North America also reflects the pullback.

  21. Juice Box says:

    Pumps = re: “no one wants to hear it”

    I am fine with hearing your opinion. Once or twice a day but not 10 posts a day. We don’t need your broken record method of repeating over and over and over every day ten times a day and then proceeding to argue every time someone posts evidence that your opinion might be wrong. Make your point and move on, you are not teaching a class here. Got it?

  22. Chicago says:


  23. Juice Box says:

    Ed – Why does little Marco Rubio need to focus on this now? Oh wait he is running for his third term as Senator from Florida.

    Needle exchange programs have existed for decades. Feds have supplied money on and off for decades, and honestly $10 million a year for this is a drop in the bucket. We spend way more incarcerating drug addicts than that every few hours of the day. There has to be enforcement and treatment programs. There is no other way to deal with it other than let them all die, take away the needle exchange programs, take away the Narcan, and Methadone programs and lock them all up etc. That is the way more expensive option, and no matter what little Marco says it’s not crazy to treat and prevent further disease and drug addiction.

  24. Chicago says:

    Yes. Your bull crap still exists.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 10, 2022 at 9:10 am
    On another note, looks like bull traps still exist. This past week was a big bull trap. Ouch.

  25. No One says:

    Marco Rubio looked the part of a new and fresh presidential candidate, but he didn’t have the substance to beat Trump or be a particularly good president. But he wouldn’t have been as awful as the ones we’ve had recently. The world would really be in a different place had he won the R nomination. I guess he would have beat Hillary. He might have reached an immigration deal with Dems, but nativist Republicans hated him all along because of his willingness to negotiate on that issue. He wouldn’t have started a trade war. China might have bought him off.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    That is the way more expensive option, and no matter what little Marco says it’s not crazy to treat and prevent further disease and drug addiction.

    No, it’s not crazy to treat and prevent. But when you want to treat and prevent in the name of rac1al equality, then you’ve revealed your true intentions.

  27. Juice Box says:

    re: Everything in the store is at least $1 higher

    Yup..time to get creative with the more expensive stuff. Case in point…Coconut milk or Almond milk sold in stores is like 70% water, and really is expensive considering what you use it for.

    Buy the powder for Almond, Soy, Coconut etc and blend your own. It’s like 3 tablespoons per cup of water, add a little vanilla or other flavoring etc, you can buy it pre flavored too. We use it for coffee creamer and making protein shakes, blend it up and it will last a week in the fridge.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t even know if I get 1% raises, have to look at it. But with 7.5%, lost 6 or more years worth of raises….ouch. At least my wife got 6%. She wasn’t happy about it either, and had a discussion about it that went well.

  29. Juice Box says:

    Ed – The Senator from Florida knows Florida passed their own Infection Disease Elimination Act (IDEA) in 2016, legalizing the formation of the first syringe exchange program in Florida, it has a mobile van roaming the communities affected by drugs, and a storefront location in Overtown, Miami right near the famous areas of Miami. These are Marco Rubio’s constituents many thousands of them that use the needle exchange.

    Studies have shown these programs work in reduction of transmission of diseases in his hometown, where he was born and raised. He should not be against the program no matter what the label is on the funding.

  30. Nomad says:


    consider the longer game re:WFH. Those attorneys for now are in demand. Consider what may happen when AI for legal research is the norm. The AI in this application will cut research costs by at leasr 80%.

    Given the spike in labor costs, AI becomes even more valuanle and implemented in situations where prior to jump in labor costs, it would not have been used.

    If economy slows significantly at some point and AI is taking more jobs than ever, to some extent, employee fear will make many less bold asking for a WFH job. Ultimately, the employers do whats best for themselves but in general, the labor force currently has a lot more freedom to pick and choose. In a couple of years, probably not so much.

  31. Old realtor says:

    Have you considered that fewer drug addicts in prison, less cost to the taxpayer? Drug enforcement has been ineffective and very expensive. Almost half of federal prisoners are in for drug offenses.

  32. Nomad says:


    if Fed starts to sell off their MBS, after being sold, are they still backstopped by Uncle Sam? If not, buyers would want lower price and a potential significant jum jump in mtg rates?

  33. 3b says:

    Nomad: AI will be a game changer across all occupations/professions, and its coming. Companies are/ will embrace it along with WFH, as both will save the companies alit id money. Of course that will eliminate a lot of jobs, and there will be a lot of people who simply won’t be able to afford companies goods or services. That is another discussion , as in what happens when there is little to no work for humans to do?

  34. Juice Box says:

    re: Rubio – Not a chance in hell Rubio would have beat Hillary, it took a giant orange clown to do it, and if you read Bob Woodward book “Obama’s Wars” you too would be thankful she did not win for you see Trump for all his bluster was not a warmonger like Hillary. She wanted way more action when she was Secretary of State. We would have two more wars right now Syria and Ukraine if she had won, and Putin would probably be planning on invading Poland from Ukraine’s border this winter after a disastrous Hillary led US attempt there to retake Crimea.

  35. No One says:

    Imported food seems to be taking an even bigger hit from the rising cost of shipping and trucking. Higher prices and more stock outs. Produce is coming from central/south America mostly, while dry goods from Asia are probably coming through congested ports. If the truckers start striking then everyone’s screwed, because virtually all food and household products are on a truck for multiple legs.

  36. BRT says:

    There is a massive shortage of Italian imported 00 Flour and Semolina. The instant it comes in anywhere, it’s cleaned out.

  37. Phoenix says:

    “For nurses, the article is focused on the take of the nurse staffing agencies. For teachers, it’s the school districts and NJ mandates.”

    Hospitals want to run nursing lean, as it costs money, and becomes unsafe. They then want to supplement their “lean” staff with outside help that they pay extra for when the cartilage on the bone has just about worn off. It’s more than just money. It’s safety, it’s a work life balance.
    At least teachers get time off.

    The new kids don’t like this, so they traveled. More money, an actual vacation, freedom from Gestapo tactics. Agencies give this. They provide a buffer, they protect their employees by restricting patient/staffing ratios as well. They make it safer.

    Using a travel agency is basically a way to use capitalism against an another capitalist entity. Its creating direct conflict. The agencies goal is profits, and their profits become my profits. Enemy of enemy is my friend. I have no delusions that traveling agencies are any better in terms of its dirty capitalist tricks, but at least in this one instance it can be used for a good purpose.

    Let’s just say the establishment doesn’t like it.

    There is a list of all the politicians in NJ floating around who signed this.

    Most are Demorats.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do they really save money or does it cost money from lack of innovation from face to face engagement? You are looking at it from only one cost basis, and not the real source of income for companies…employee innovation. You can’t compete with face to face engagement. It’s impossible to replicate remotely. People feed off each other in a face to face environment. Put the right group together and they can do wonders working together in person.

    If you are just doing a job to get a job done, then remote works.

    “will embrace it along with WFH, as both will save the companies alit id money.”

  39. Phoenix says:

    Many trains are already down to two workers, and some only have the engineer.

    Trucks are a problem as each needs a driver.

    AI is trying to eliminate that as well.

  40. Phoenix says:

    Hospitals want to run nursing lean, as it costs money, and becomes unsafe.

    Ooh. Bad typo.

    Long night.


  41. Juice Box says:

    Our little experiment in inflation reverberates. The third world is going to take it in the chin. Bananas now hovering around the highest price in nearly 30 years. It one of the many exports that keeps the Guatemalan economy flush with dollars, but the reality is they import a huge amount of American goods and the wholesale price of exported Guatemalan bananas won’t make up for the difference. Same whole true for many 3rd world countries that import massive amounts of finished US goods. They won’t be able to afford our inflation, and increase in costs $250 a month to the middle class here in the USA is like $4000 a month to them, simply unaffordable.

  42. Phoenix says:

    “Have you considered that fewer drug addicts in prison, less cost to the taxpayer?”

    Send the bill to the Sacklers.

  43. Juice Box says:

    BRT – not seeing it on Amazon. Plenty of Caputo 00 Flour available…

  44. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – What happened here? A little break room spat between scabs and the employees?

  45. Phoenix haha edition says:

    Caputo 00 Flour mixes well with heroin and fentanyl.

  46. crushednjmillenial says:

    Quick hits . . .

    (1) NJ state legislature redistricting maps are out. One proposed by the D’s; one proposed by the R’s. Saw some notable changes in the counties relevant to me.

    (2) Glad that by “follow the science” the Governors of like 4 states were all able to scientifically state that the kids in schools’ masks can be taken off simultaneously.

    (3) Abbott – the NJ press should be hammering the fact that Hoboken remains an Abbott district all these years later. Seriously, there should be weekly articles about how absurd it is that NJ State funds are paying so much of the Hoboken school budget. Today, it is 2022 Hoboken. It is not 1992 Hoboken (see “Delivered Vacant” a movie about “gentrification” and “displacement” in Hoboken around that time).

  47. Juice Box says:

    BTW – Little Marco has his hands full, his challenger is attractive, black and tough.

    Nice tweeter too..


    27 years of putting on a bulletproof vest to go to work as a law enforcement officer is not a “sudden interest” in combating violent crime. I reduced violent crime by 40% as Orlando’s Chief of Police while Marco Rubio was home asleep in his bed.

  48. BRT says:

    I don’t shop on Amazon so I wouldn’t know but a quick scan, all that appears to be severely marked up. I mean I have it in my basement vacuum packed and I’d be willing to part with mine for those prices.

  49. Old realtor says:

    There is no heroin. Fentanyl mixed with Xanax and inert powder is all there is on the streets or the dark web. This stuff is turning people into zombies.

  50. Juice Box says:

    re – NJ state legislature redistricting maps are out.

    They gerrymandered my town so bad that just Governor’s Murphy street is now blue.

    It’s the little blue carve out at the bottom.

  51. Phoenix says:

    Go to Reddit/ nursing

    Plenty of details there. But kind of hard to interview a dead guy.

    Seems quite a few on reddit worked with him.

    Women on Reddit claiming dating thing, but she was way older than him. Women always want to claim it’s because she refused his “advances.”

    I don’t think so.

    But either way it looks personal that’s for sure. I have to say I have never felt unsafe at work with the exception of some patients.

    The majority of my co workers are excellent. Some are lazy, some snarky, but ATEOTD I have been fortunate to have a great crew to work with. Although it is slipping now due to so many leaving.

    I have been in contact with a few that left. For some the grass is either brown or non-existent where they arrived, but they are making more money. The industry has turned to excrement.

    At least they thanked me and said they were grateful for the time they spent working/training with me. They realized its nice when someone actually has your best interest in mind/ has your back at all times. Especially in an industry this rough.

    These kids were troopers. Loved all of them. Smart, funny, hard working, ethical.

    Boomers greed is going to tear them apart.

  52. Phoenix says:

    Old Realtor,

    Have you been shopping online again?


  53. Phoenix says:


    The semolina dealer.

    I’ll take a couple of grams. Meet me in Paterson.


  54. BRT says:

    Fine grained or coarse? Granoro, Caputo, or Anna? I’ll meet you there, just make sure we aren’t in a school zone.

  55. Libturd says:


  56. No One says:

    Venture capital and “fake it till you make it” tech bros in collaboration with some naiive journalists 3-4 years ago made it sound like autonomous trucks would quickly make truck drivers obsolete. And their stories quite possibly scared a lot of drivers out of trucking jobs. (Besides the very heavy handed Federal regulations of truckers). It was maddening to see articles written by dummies, interviewing truckers and telling them in just a few years they would be out of a job. I saw it in multiple newspapers, even inside my firm some non-analyst journalist was trying to write an over-hyped piece 5 years ago. I flat out refused to endorse it creating a bit of a stink, because it was just hipster fantasies and speculation.
    In the last 4 years the whole notion of rapid adoption of autonomous vehicles slammed into a brick wall of reality. Four years ago people were predicting it would be here today. Now people are saying it won’t be common for another 6 to 8 years.
    Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was always the worst. Every stock pick had to fit into his dream of autonomous electric fleets of cars. He imagines he can see 20 years into the future and wanting to be the next Blodget. Him and the little brats at the big consulting firms.

  57. Phoenix says:

    You got any Market Pantry, Kirkland Signature, or Barilla?

    I ain’t rich you know.

  58. Libturd says:

    We have a bunch of 00 for our pizza oven. We sort of hoarded it after the initial home pizza oven wave. Of course after experimenting with 6 or 7 00 dough recipes, Gator sends me this super scientifically perfected recipe that uses All Purpose (white) Flour that is so superior to all of the others, that we need to use the 00 for other things.

    Best part of this recipe is the simplicity of it (especially how well it works with a stand mixer).

  59. Phoenix says:

    Time to get Kris Kristofferson to make Convoy II.

    Need to get a new Ali McGraw, however, in order to keep it spicy.

  60. Libturd says:

    No One,

    When I was in college, I took an energy, power and transportation class that was probably my favorite class ever. Even back then (1980s), they were discussing self-driving trucks that platooned at high speeds using linked sensors and synced step motors.

  61. Libturd says:

    Convoy was terrible.

    Any of you watching Kim’s Convenience? Its the first Netflix series I’ve liked. It’s incredibly whimsical and obvious, but very well done. The actor who plays Kim is really excellent.

  62. Juice Box says:

    BRT – I am a bit biased here when it comes to Pasta and Flour. When I worked in a Pizzeria in high school run by some Italian immigrants they used Gold Medal flour. They did not waste money on imported flour for Pizza, and Calzones etc.

    BTW as far as Italian products go it’s well know Italy imports much of their wheat for flour milling and pasta production, apparently they do not even produce enough Italian grown wheat to meet the requirements of their own market, so that flour is made from Austrian or Polish wheat or whichever EU country sells it the cheapest.

    You can find decent flour prices online if you know where to look other than Amazon, there seems to be an additional 30% markup on the imported Italian Flour. Here ya go.. $4.99 at Walmart or $2.20 a lb.

    Gold medal brand .79 cents a pound…no need to buy from Amazon and their middlemen with their inflated markups. This online retailer gets it directly from Gold Medal and sells it online.

  63. leftwing says:

    Lib, saw that post and responded in other thread, congrats again!

    Phoenix, not disagreeing with you. Just with any characterization that the nurses are to blame. I have no problem with the agencies they serve a valuable role and I have family members who are employed by them in both nursing and PT. Let them mark the nurses’ services up and throw an additional turn on the charge for themselves while they’re at it. Especially for a disaster partly of our own making.

    Re: food inflation, it’s nuts. The math on a weekly basis for what was affecting my spend wasn’t working, the percentage increase was just too high so I looked harder at my bill…the biggest change for me is not in the headline sticker but in the evaporation of sales and discounts especially automatic ones…example, I’ll go through a lot of Yasso yogurt bars. List prices 5.50-6.00 where I shop. I always got them for 4.00 or less usually because even when they weren’t ‘on sale’ – and often when they were – for plugging my membership number into the cash register I always got a discount or ‘electronic coupon’. Until yesterday (Stop n Shop) I had been paying full fare for these things for months…I saw them there at 4.00 a box last night, bought a dozen…

    May not sound like a lot but it adds up, the swing from 4.00 to 5.50-6.00 is a 37-50% increase in actual price paid with no official change in the list price.

    So while headline inflation is high single digits at least I now know why my actual food spend is up a solid 20-25% monthly with no change in buying habits…nice hidden price increase.

  64. BRT says:

    sorry, I only deal in premium product.

    Lib, try the food mixer with metal blade on dough. You can get perfect gluten formation in about 45 seconds. I can make a great dough from King Arthur All Purpose as well. 00 holds up better against the heat and allows me to crisp up the pie a little more to my liking. When I lived in New Brunswick, I jimmied the lock on the self clean and ran the oven at 900 degrees to bake pizza. My current oven, I got one where it’s electric and the broiler never turns off. So I can get my 50 cent Home Depot Quarry Tiles on the 2nd highest rack up to 700 degrees and I broil it on the top. It’s about a 3 minute bake. Great for parties because I have dual oven and can crank out a pie every 5 minutes.

    If you want to try something different, there’s this great farm in Arizona that does old heritage grains of flour. Very expensive but really unique and impressive.

  65. Libturd says:

    And speaking of backyard pizzas.

    I make an absolutely incredible smoked brisket pie.

    The secrets are carmelizing the sh1t out of the onions and mixing a sweet BBQ sauce 1:1 with the crushed tomatoes. The rest is just a good dough and mozz, smoked brisket (which I always have tons of) fresh jalapeno rings (not fermented, some seeds removed) and some green and red peppers chopped. It’s like the first time you’ve ever had a barbeque chicken ranch pizza, but ten times better.

  66. BRT says:

    Juice I agree. But, it really depends what you are looking for. In a high heat oven, you need higher hydrations which is where the fine grained 00 is very advantageous. Moreover, for potato gnocchi, you look to minimize the amount of flour you use so the ability to draw in more moister is also very important. It’s not so much where it’s grown as the size of the particle that’s important, which is what 00 is. But, I have no qualms about using American flour in many situations, including pizza. I like to mix things up. What I’ve been doing more recently is running a blend because American flour gives you nicer color on the bake but the 00 flour gives you better crisp.

  67. Libturd says:


    Yeah, it’s all about the stickiness/stretchiness of the gluten and the temperature of the dough after mixing. I only mix for 30 seconds (metal blade). It ends up 80 degrees on the nose. Try that recipe sometime. It makes a real NY style crust. Thick enough to hold up to a lot of sauce, but able to be thinned for bar pies too.

  68. Libturd says:


    Anyone who thinks high interest rates on the 30 year combined with today’s inflated home prices is not going to stunt future home values is simply smoking crack.

  69. Phoenix says:

    Some agencies come straight out and advertise Green cards if you work for them.

    It’s a real vile industry. But what I am noticing on the forums as well is that since it’s primarily female based, they know how to and are ramping up to make plenty of noise.

    There is going to be a Million Karen March in every city on Florence Nightingale day.
    Of course, part of the problem with that has been accusations between the women about racism of Florence. So here is a chance for women to get together and fight a cause but now there is some infighting over the day that was chosen.
    Oh well.

    Picky, Picky.

  70. Phoenix says:

    What is the average BMI for this forum?

    Do you all hate vegetables?

  71. BRT says:

    Phoenix, I grow vegetables all year long…just about every one you can name. Love em. I try to grow rare varieties that you can’t find anywhere. I literally go out in my backyard and clip greens and make a salad from it. Right now, the only thing that has survived the cold snap has been the spinach and arugula.

  72. Phoenix haha edition says:

    It’s no problem. Corporations are going to give everyone massive raises so pesky things like home prices and interest rates don’t matter. /s

    Since Pizza seems to be the topic of the day:

  73. Fast Eddie says:


    What is the average BMI for this forum?

    I’m 5’5″ tall and weigh 280 lbs. Am I overweight?

  74. Nomad says:


    Agree mostly but do people in market for home / those who want to move up have big enough gains in their portfolio so another $250 – $500k in price is doable? Even in flyover, prices and taxes are beyond what I thought max affordability was. The spread between there and here isn’t chump change but definitely narrowed and the bagels/pie here still way better.

  75. Fast Eddie says:

    Right now, the only thing that has survived the cold snap has been the spinach and arugula.

  76. Phoenix says:

    At 280 technically I can use a stretcher for you. After 300 you get a bed. Much more comfortable.

    You might want to enjoy a few of Lib’s Brisket Pies.

    Make it to 500 plus and we even have a special O.R. table for you!

  77. Nomad says:


    I know you are joking but here ya go

    Their shares are way off too so you could buy the equity. Actually pretty compelling tech. This year, they launch the g7 which was developed w Verily. Sensor very small.

    Every 5 min, sensor sends reading to smartphone and then to verily cloud. AI for diabetes management and if blood glucose readings out of whack, patient gets call, txt or even doc on hippa compliant video call.

  78. Libturd says:

    Nomad. I hear you about the easy money. Don’t disagree about it either. But if you thought a 30 year loan at 4% was high on a 400K, wait till you see what compounding does on a 800K loan. Each 1% is another 500K a month. Your $3800 payment becomes $5,800 a month at 8%. Then add in the 1800 month in property taxes and $200 for insurance and you are looking at $6,000 now becoming $8,000. A lot of people today can afford the $6,000. The $8000? That’s a spicy meatball.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The majority of market participants should never short. Ever. No puts. No outright shorts. That includes most fund managers.

    Expect market to drop? Go to cash.

    Shorts in 15 minutes turned a day that should have been a bloodbath into one that can go green thru dumb positions.

  80. Hold my beer says:


    Do you have those extra strong toilets for the 500 pounders too?

    My bmi fluctuates between 24.9 and 25.3. Depends on what I had for dinner and if I’ve dropped a massive deuce or not

  81. crushednjmillenial says:

    NJ Democrats throw off the yoke of South Jersey-Norcross oppression?

  82. Bystander says:

    “Venture capital and “fake it till you make it” tech bros ”

    Speaking of Brandon’s amazing resilient economy and his caring for common person, job leverage and wages are off the charts. I had three interviews this week but two are the purple smurf variety (impossible to find people with expertise skill across multiple areas). Not sure I care to go further. One on the radar is Ax*ni, with an o. Some blockchain tech firm that handles match, confirm and post-trade settlement for bonds, equity swaps. Small shop, 100 people with two brothers as founders. Got 20m cash injection a few years ago and I think getting 75m this year. I have been in tech bubble previously and alarms going off. Their comp is all-in meaning no bonus, just negotiated salary. I am not blown away by numbers so they offer equity shares (series B) that I vest in over 4 years. Each year can cash portion. Obviously alot to ask about in this arrangement but recruiting basically want yea or nay on interest by tomorrow. I have shit job at shit IB as you know but stable. Finally got a 5% raise and biggest bonus but no promotion after highest marks for year 3. Anyone have insight into company or advice. In my heart, I know these places won’t survive even with hubris of innovation revolution. How do you choose small start-ups to see who might survive? Income statement alone and owner background. Blind career site says lots of turnover in tech and mgt not providing clear direction

  83. 3b says:

    Lib: Kim’s Convenience was very well done. My wife and I really enjoyed it. Do it for the Jesus!!

  84. Nomad says:


    how many startup or small entreprenurial type companies have you worked for? If you have been in this environment, your gut call will likely be right. Most fail. Also ask yourself if leadership passes the sniff test, past track record of success / failure, any ethical issues or the like. Lexis Nexis background check if you are seriously interested is a must. I’ve done multiple startup / small entreprenurial ventues (not in your space). Big company people running these types of ventures rarely succeed andpersonally, be it buying a car or career move, “buy now limited time offer” is not a good sign. Good luck.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know you hate murphy on this blog, but he deserves a big thank you from this state. He broke the chains. Remember who was going to be the next governor before Murphy pushed him out of the way. State is now out of the control of Norcross and the South. They hurt the north for way too long.

    crushednjmillenial says:
    February 10, 2022 at 12:14 pm
    NJ Democrats throw off the yoke of South Jersey-Norcross oppression?

  86. Bystander says:


    My career started around 97 in AT&T Solutions then Cable and Wireless in DC. I got big bump in ’99 to join telecom startup which collapsed in 2001. That place paid for lease of BMWs for (many low paid) employees who got stuck with it after went under. I have seen the bs, yes. Fine when I was in 20s/30s and no kids. I worked small mortgage firms with bigger bonus comp but that collapsed in 2007. I have been straight big banks for 15 years. There is so much need in small shop fintech but thought of being out of a job in a year as sole bread winner seems too risky. Short term numbers are astounding though.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one,

    Autonomous vehicles are inevitable. I think I read that they are rolling out autonomous rigs in Texas first. Supposed to happen next year. You are correct, that it should have been here already, but it’s inevitable.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Supposedly when the rigs first come out, they will compliment rigs with drivers. Help fill the void of lack of drivers, and eventually taking them all out. You have to be insane to be young and bank your career on driving a rig.

  89. Trick says:

    House behind us just closed a $625, neighbor next door paid $580 this time last year and I thought he was crazy. Not a single house on the market in our neighborhood. Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks

  90. Clown World says:

    7.5% CPI print today, 2022.
    7.5% CPI last saw this level in 1982.

    Fed Funds Rate 2022 – 0.25
    Fed Funds Rate 1982 – 11.25%

    Even a 50bp rate increase in March, which would “surprise” some folks, will do nothing to stop the inflation train. We are shooting a BB gun at a Sherman tank here.

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I talked to 3 camps of builders this week. Camp 1: Full steam ahead. Camp 2: Lost. Can’t determine which way the market will land. Camp 3: Doom and gloom. One guy is having his whole team project a 40% drop in sales and 15% drop in price to try to plan the pivot early”

  92. chicagofinance says:

    Dedicated to Phoenix & Leftwing:
    Louis CK…. I am posting at this point for completeness and context. The specific segment is 5 minutes long. It takes about 1 minute for it to warm up, but the payoffs really kick in after about 3 minutes.

  93. Libturd says:

    Clown World,

    Which is why I made that mortgage interest statement. Fed has to SLOW DEMAND. Only way to do it is to raise interest rates high enough that people stop spending so much. My example was 6% interest. If we are looking at 8% (which is not that far away from reality) which is only 1.25% higher than what it cost me with near perfect credit on my multi in late 2004, then we are looking at $6,000 going to $10,000 a month. The youngsters here don’t remember when car loans were 7% and fortunately only 3 or 4 years. Now they are 5 or 6 years at 0-3%.

  94. leftwing says:

    30Y benchmark mortgage rate pops over 4 to 4.02…up about 120bps in one year….

    2/10 spread tightens to 48bps

    Futures say six raises by year end by the fed now….

    Shit be happenin’…..

  95. Libturd says:


    If you trust the stock market is forward looking, look at the stocks of the major homebuilders. They are porjecting an end to this cycle. Last time around, so many got so crushed at the turn, that they are intentionally not ramping up supply to meet the current insatiable demand so they are not left with their proverbial schlongs in their hands. Of course, supply chain issues and material costs are making it a bit of a suicide mission to potentially overbuild. At least they learned their lesson to buy the land years ahead of building on it. Much cheaper to sit on undeveloped land than to have to unload expensive to build houses at under cost. Last time their houses had better margins too. I am not sure if the market changes tomorrow, but I would guess within the next two years at most, growth in prices will stop.

  96. joyce says:

    I couldn’t agree with you more, and at the same time, I wonder how many PILOT deals were given out in Hoboken (and surrounding areas) that caps the property taxes/increases for a fixed amount of time and more importantly all of it going to the municipality and county (90/10) and none of it going to the school district. Deals that the state rubberstamped.

    crushednjmillenial says:
    February 10, 2022 at 10:50 am

    (3) Abbott – the NJ press should be hammering the fact that Hoboken remains an Abbott district all these years later. Seriously, there should be weekly articles about how absurd it is that NJ State funds are paying so much of the Hoboken school budget. Today, it is 2022 Hoboken. It is not 1992 Hoboken (see “Delivered Vacant” a movie about “gentrification” and “displacement” in Hoboken around that time).

  97. Libturd says:

    “Shit be happenin’…..”

    And FED really can’t bail out this time.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Makes me think that I should maybe sell off my rental, bank it, and wait for the drop in pricing. I’m just nervous about the supply issue. It’s really distorted.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Meaning, I might not find a desirable rental to buy when the smoke eventually clears.

  100. crushednjmillenial says:

    Pumpkin at 12:46 on Murphy and Sweeney . . .

    Murphy pushed FULOP, not Sweeney, out of the way to take the Dem candidacy for Gov. After a term-limited Murphy moved on, then it would likely have been Sweeney time at Drumthacket (or however you spell that word).

    Sweeny time was broken by a red wave and Ed Durr, not directly by Murphy. By “directly,” I mean that Murphy was unable to beat Norcross-Sweeney power from the left in South NJ (tried and failed badly in 2019); and Murphy was unable to consolidate the North NJ Dems enough to beat Norcross-Sweeny. Ironically, Murphy INDIRECTLY toppled Norcross-Sweeney by his far left Covid policies that alienated moderates in South NJ and created that red wave, along with bad Dem political work nationally. Simply, Murphy diminshed Norcross power by being bad at being Governor, lol.

    Finally, while the Norcross machine clearly looted the state coffers (see tax incentives for Camden devlopment and who got the contracts), the South NJ dems had more respect for not “killing the golden goose.” While South NJ democrats spend too much, North NJ Dems would spend even more, regulate business even harder, pass more expensive and divisive leftist policy, etc. South NJ kept some of this spending under control – more North NJ-Murphy power seems to go hand-in-hand with higher spending and higher budget deficits.

  101. Libturd says:


    I can’t answer this for you. In the long term, housing will be fine and should continue to commend a 4% on average return. YMMV based on the timing of your buy and sell. Knowing your discipline (or lack thereof), I would just ride it through each cycle. I’m in a different scenario. I need to sell within the next 18 months. So sooner is better than later for me. I can no longer stand living in this state. It’s especially bad if you have a kid with strong special needs. In most states, his healthcare and education would be covered 100%. Trust me, you are much better off being born poor in NJ than with serious health issues.

    I also can’t live in a state with a governor as bad Murphy where the population is so stupid that they reelected this complete moron.

    Finally, the tax treatment here is atrocious to the middle and upper class. Fortunately for the latter group, they can afford it.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crushed, it was Murphy.

    NEWARK, N.J. – When State Senate President Stephen Sweeney landed at Philadelphia International Airport last week after a trip to Houston for his day job as head of an ironworkers union local, he turned on his flip phone and answered a reporter’s call.

    “What do you think of Fulop dropping out?” the reporter asked, referring to Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who had just shocked the New Jersey political world by announcing he would not seek the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination in 2017.

    “What?” Sweeney said, according to a person familiar with the exchange.

    Sweeney (D., Gloucester), a prospective candidate himself, was caught off-guard like everyone else. Fulop was the favorite of many power brokers in North Jersey counties rich with Democratic voters. Fulop’s decision created a vacuum.

    With Fulop out, Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and President Obama’s ambassador to Germany from 2009 to 2013, raced to consolidate northern support.

    At first, Sweeney thought he still had a shot. But his presumptive allies, such as Sen. Brian Stack of Hudson County, began to fall in line behind Murphy. By Wednesday evening, the Democratic chairs of Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic Counties were set to endorse Murphy the next day. Essex County leaders were to follow Friday.

    On Thursday morning, Sweeney decided he couldn’t defeat Murphy head-to-head, and the 2017 Democratic primary campaign for governor became something of a coronation eight months before polls open.

    “It is no secret that I seriously considered running, and I believe I would have been able to win the general election and return the governor’s mansion to Democratic control,” Sweeney wrote in an email to supporters Thursday.

    “As a proud ironworker for almost 40 years, I understood the hard work it would take to win. However, in the last few days it has become clear that Phil Murphy has been able to secure substantial support from Democratic and community leaders that would make my bid all but impossible.”

    Sweeney said he intended to seek reelection to the Senate and was confident his colleagues would reelect him president of the chamber.

    Given Gov. Christie’s extraordinary unpopularity in the Garden State, Democratic strategists have long believed the winner of their party’s June primary would easily defeat any Republican opponent.

    Both Sweeney and Fulop spent at least three years building the groundwork for a statewide campaign.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks lib, and I hope it works out for you.

  104. crushednjmillenial says:

    1:46 . . .

    Yes, I think we are saying the same thing. If Murphy didn’t want to run in 2017, Fulop would have been Governor. Murphy had a famous talk with Fulop and Fulop dropped out shortly thereafter. Sweeney wasn’t going to win in 2017.

    For 2025 (an election that Murphy could not run for re-election in due to term limits), it was looking like Sweeney was the frontrunner until Ed Durr sent Sweeney slinking back home from Trenton.

  105. Boomer Remover says:

    “Two industries that need to die a miserable death; the meddling real estate thievery syndicate and the democrat party. I’m not sure who’s better at stealing money.”

    This is one of only a few posts from you I agree with, and I’ve been here since 2008.

  106. Boomer Remover says:

    “Bananas now hovering around the highest price in nearly 30 years. ”

    My wife always rolls her eyes when I go into my pound for pound bananas are an amazing value speech by the WH banana tree. I don’t understand why they’re not easily a third more… and according to Juice’s snippet they may soon get their day.

  107. leftwing says:

    By, stream of consciousness from a five minute look at their website…

    First, good to see you getting back into the saddle again. Too long you’ve been shit on at your current place…

    Re: the company..

    Decent enough backgrounds on the principals on paper. Common element seems to be this TradeBlock company. How’d that do? COO seems to have an awful lot of stops for his apparent age. Worth checking out how long at each and how they did.

    Ditto Board. Good backgrounds. Do at least a linkedin read on them. No red flags, but some questions…eg. one observer has a nice string of employ (WCAS, Citadel)…people usually don’t voluntarily leave these positions, they’re lotto tickets. Did he retire up, or does the company have kind of retreads with good names in their backgrounds but not great success?

    Investors…a lot for their size. Given most are financial firms are they platform users? I suspect so since at least a few of the names aren’t really active in venture investing for their own independent book…nothing wrong with customers having equity but getting equity for services is not a sustainable business model….if they’re in with cash because the product is so good different story…two different scenarios and implications for their view on the company. Basically, from the financial institution investors is this a “Zelle” or is it “why not own some they’re giving it to us and we’re using it on some desk, somewhere”.

    Looks like Andreesen H is likely lead. Any info available on how much they’re in for, how long, both rounds or not, increasing/decreasing pro-rata share of investment, etc. In other words, does one of the best startup investors out there like, really like, or is just luke warm on this company?

    Bottom line (again, on a five minute look) it does come down to the product and where it fits going forward in the sector. That’s your forte. Solid product with good prospects and limited competition I don’t see this management team fucking it up provided their prior endeavors weren’t blowups. Opposite end…product useful but not needed, one of many used by many financial institutions and easily substituted, AH not in second round, and this TradeBlock company specifically and then a couple others these guys were associated with blew up…obviously avoid.


  108. 3b says:

    Lib: I respectfully disagree on your long term call for housing for a number of reasons, but I will leave it there.

  109. leftwing says:

    Fucking Bullard, turned my p/l upside down today…what was solid green is red, and vice versa, but not to my advantage….

    Separately, Affirm may have an opening in IR…LOL. Freaking accidentally posted earnings highlights to twitter a few minutes ago….

  110. leftwing says:

    “look at the stocks of the major homebuilders…Last time around, so many got so crushed…”

    Toll just recovered its 2005 high stock price last year.

    KB Homes is still trading at just over half of its 2005 high…..

    May want to extend those top of cycle investment horizons from 10 years to 20…actually, maybe 30 years instead.

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lived through most of my adult life with not fighting the FED on the way up, and now I will be living through the period where you don’t fight the FED on the way down.

    Funny how life works. If my small ark investment didn’t make me realize what was going on with the FED and the economy, then I would have never ever been brave enough to pull out the 401k. So it cost me a couple thousand dollars to save god knows how much. Shows you the luck in life.

  112. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Sweeney would have been at least slightly better than Murphy for most of the state. He was going to put a check on the public unions and hold the line on tax increases rather than the bonanza that Murphy brought.

    It must have been quite an alliance working behind the scenes to oust Sweeney. It would be fascinating to know how it was done. As storybook as it sounds it wasn’t Ed Durr and $350.

  113. leftwing says:

    And imagine that, it only took this entire forum yelling at you to not invest in it at the top last February, you insufferably and nonsensically defending and promoting it multiple times each day all the way down for the ensuing 270 days, while everyone and anyone on this forum with any modicum of financial sense trying to keep you out…

    Progress, I guess.

    Certainly not luck. We knew what we were doing. You were clueless and did not. But I suppose through that prism you can view the outcome we knew as just “luck”.

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Left, I was only looking at it from a long-term perspective. You guys knew what was coming short-term. Respect.

    I’m younger than you guys, and never experienced an era of out of control inflation. Didn’t even think it was possible anymore.

    I still believe in disruptive tech, but I just didn’t expect the inflation to get so out of control in the short-term. I know long-term, deflation is the problem, hence, the only way you can make money in that environment is by investing in the tech innovation that is playing a part in that deflation. It’s going to be very very hard to make money with investments after this inflation settles.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The luck part for me was going into an investment that got its ass handed to it by the FED before the rest of the market. A canary in the coal mine. It helped me see the light and act on it. Yes, that’s skill, but it’s also luck that I was able to get the lesson taught to me for a year before the entire market got the rug pulled out from underneath it.

  116. Libturd says:


    3B, respect to your opinion. When you have more, explain why.

    Pumps. Stay off the Reddit Boards and all stock forums. There is absolutely nothing to learn there, except how to get duped by others. Turn off CNBC and Bloomberg, though the latter isn’t terrible. Read a few books from the masters and study market history. And for heaven’s sake, remember, it’s NEVER different this time. Cryptocurrency, NFTs, SPACs are today’s black tulips. Go to your local library and read ValueLine. If you want to learn Technical Analysis, read IBD. That’s it. Everything else is meant to part you from your money.

  117. Libturd says:

    Pumps. I have never read a single article about crypto. Not a single article about NFTs. Nor a single article on the MEME boys. Why? Because once you read about them, it’s too late to join them. You make money by finding hidden value. There is no value in anything recently published except for future historical perspective. TRUST ME ON THIS. You must either painstakingly find it yourself or pay someone to do your dirty work.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thank you, Lib.

    I learned a lot from you and others on this board over the years. I truly did. That’s why I kept hanging around. I might have annoyed you guys by constantly challenging you, but man, did I learn a lot. Thank you guys. I owe you guys a drink for sure. Can’t thank you guys enough for all the lessons.

  119. Bystander says:


    Really appreciate it. I am looking at the Tradeblock situation now. Appears they sold it off to Coindesk several years back.

  120. Clown World says:

    Pumps, to add to the reading list that Libturd so generously offered. I find this publication really interesting. It’s a bit of fringe periodical but sometimes they guess correctly. They hinted at something suspicious regarding inflation back in October 2021.

    Between December 2019 and August 2021, the U.S. money supply, measured by M2, grew by $5.5 trillion, a stunning 35.7% increase in only a year and a half, driven primarily by the Fed’s purchases of Treasury’s and mortgage-backed securities.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    Also, package sizes have decreased while price is maintained (or increased) is another stealth factor.

    leftwing says:
    February 10, 2022 at 11:26 am
    Re: food inflation, it’s nuts.
    So while headline inflation is high single digits at least I now know why my actual food spend is up a solid 20-25% monthly with no change in buying habits…nice hidden price increase.

  122. chicagofinance says:

    I thought they were gazpacho tactics.

    Phoenix says:
    February 10, 2022 at 10:32 am
    More money, an actual vacation, freedom from Gestapo tactics.

  123. chicagofinance says:

    There are two pieces to your question. There is implied/actual impact of traditional federal intervention in the mortgage market which is the backstop to which you refer. Then there is the COVID-era QE stimulus of the purchase of MBS. It is the latter that is being phased out through sales or allowing the securities to roll off. So the backstop implied/actual is not affected.

    Nomad says:
    February 10, 2022 at 10:12 am
    Chi, if Fed starts to sell off their MBS, after being sold, are they still backstopped by Uncle Sam? If not, buyers would want lower price and a potential significant jum jump in mtg rates?

  124. BRT says:

    product size or shrinkflation is getting very annoying. Wegmans reduced the individual ciabatta roles to about 80% of their size. Used to make a great lunch sandwich. now, it’s halfway between a slider and a sandwich. Superpretzels have shrunk so much, they should call it a dinky pretzel. I have since stopped purchasing them instead opting to drive into PA to get Philly pretezels, still the same size, and I free those.

  125. BRT says:

    Lib, there is one thing you can gain from reddit forums is the investor sentiment of the low end of retail.

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I just want to say it again because it is warranted. You guys knocked it out of the park with your investment advice and analysis. I was wrong and you guys were absolutely correct. You guys knocked it out of the park. I hope your kids are not as stubborn as I was and listen closely to sage advice from their dad.

  127. 3b says:

    7 hikes seems to be the consensus for next year. And the first one will probably be 50bp. Fed will have to show they are serious this time.

  128. hobojoe says:

    the NJ press should be hammering the fact that Hoboken remains an Abbott district all these years later.

    Well, at least enough people in Hoboken were able to wake up to vote down the referendum on the new $241 million high school a few weeks back. You know, the one where the plans 2 years in the making were kept a complete secret until the odd late january special referendum vote was announced. Announced the day after the general election had just taken place in November.

    Sure, $241 million seems like a lot of money, but it would have had a capacity of 100 students more than the existing one! The existing one that currently imports students from surrounding cities and towns to fill it. For a real laugh, look up what else was included in the $241 million “school building”…

  129. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, I was so wrong about this. No one, you were indeed correct. As were others, but you said it over and over.

    “The pain might have been less­ened if the Fed had be­gun to with­draw its pan­demic money rush more than a year ago. But Wash­ing­ton had grown to be­lieve that a new era of cost-free spend­ing and low in­ter­est rates had dawned. The old fis­cal and mon­e­tary ver­i­ties no longer held, and those who warned about in­fla­tion were pro­claimed to be di­nosaurs from the Rea­gan era.

    Relearning those lessons will now be much harder than it should be, and the American worker will now pay the price.”

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The pain might have been less­ened if the Fed had be­gun to with­draw its pan­demic money rush more than a year ago. But Wash­ing­ton had grown to be­lieve that a new era of cost-free spend­ing and low in­ter­est rates had dawned. The old fis­cal and mon­e­tary ver­i­ties no longer held, and those who warned about in­fla­tion were pro­claimed to be di­nosaurs from the Rea­gan era.

  131. Tom River says:

    grim / Old Realtor,

    How does Toms River’s new CO ordinance for real estate closings compare to others you’re familiar with?

    Starts on page 7:

    Complete MCCUO applications, along with required supporting documentation, must be filed with the Division of Code Enforcement, on forms provided, not later than 30 business days prior to the anticipated closing date. Required supporting documentation includes, but may not be limited to, the certifications required pursuant to §253-3A.

    A. To pass inspection and receive and MCCUO, the subject dwelling must meet the following criteria:
    1. No open or unresolved building, zoning, housing, code enforcement, or engineering conditions, violations, or permits.
    2. Utilities must be operational.
    3. Property description is consistent with tax records.
    4. Furnace/boiler certification provided by a licensed HVAC contractor.
    5. For those properties serviced by well water, a clear well certificate issued in accordance with state law.
    6. Fireplace/chimney certification for wood/coal burning stoves.
    7. Certification from a licensed electrician that any pools, out-buildings, or other accessories or amenities serviced by high-voltage electricity are properly grounded and bonded.
    8. Properly certified heating oil tanks.
    9. The absence of substantive property maintenance code violations.
    10. Properly sized and visible house numbers.
    11. Walkways, including sidewalks and driveway aprons, free of tripping hazards.
    12. Graspable handrails and guardrails on staircases with 4 rises or more and decks/landings 30 inches above grade.
    13. All exterior receptacles GFCI-protected.
    14. Properly maintained and structurally sound fences and retaining walls.
    15. Conforming safety barriers for pools.
    16. Interior, thumb-knob door-locking mechanisms for primary means of egress.
    17. Suitable means of egress for all bedrooms, including properly functioning windows.
    18. Bathroom privacy.
    19. GFCI-protection for electrical receptacles within 6 feet of a water source.
    20. Properly functioning hot and cold water mechanisms in kitchen and bathrooms.
    21. No signs of active water leaks.
    22. Secure and intact high-voltage electric wiring, with no open splices or permanently mounted extension cords.
    23. Dryer vents with exterior discharge and approved tubing.
    B. Any inspection certificates required by this section shall be provided with the application.

    A. Application/inspection fee: $300
    B. Re-inspection fee: $150
    C. Transfer of title affidavit: $175
    D. These charges do not cover fees that may be required to remedy violations discovered or disclosed during inspection. Those additional fees must be paid separately to the appropriate department or agency

    ^not to mention cost of hiring licensed contractors

  132. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “I’m old enough to remember when $tsla hodlers could just live off their margin loans forever”

  133. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m dying. This is hilarious. People are nuts.

  134. No One says:

    The only deflation we might see is asset price deflation. Consumer prices no. Watch out in future years for “greenflation” caused by green regulation pushing up energy prices which will then push up other costs.

  135. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No One, read the last two paragraphs. I can’t get it past the firewall. You said it over and over again. I was so wrong…

  136. No One says:

    I don’t think I really called much. Inflation tends to be autocorrelated, 7.5% surprised me on the upside, but probably will be dropping this year and next, but nobody knows to what. And if it doesn’t drop, then we’re in real trouble.
    Nobody predicts the most important economic shocks and surprises.
    Everyone’s bank account lost about 7% of purchasing power last year. The poor and elderly hit hardest thanks to Central planners at the Fed. Nobody has been fired for this!

  137. Fabius Maximus says:

    I wonder what I’ll get delivered first?

    Your integrated Donnie Burn Bag and Toilet Paper holder.

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The exact response I expected. You are such a pragmatist. You are that village sage 700 years ago. That’s how you know you are so wise from experience….”nobody predicts the most important economic shocks and surprises.” You base your entire approach upon investment on this simple but powerful quote. You know what you know and what you don’t.

    And you nail it…no one has been fired for this major f up. It’s unbelievable.

    No One says:
    February 10, 2022 at 8:48 pm
    I don’t think I really called much. Inflation tends to be autocorrelated, 7.5% surprised me on the upside, but probably will be dropping this year and next, but nobody knows to what. And if it doesn’t drop, then we’re in real trouble.
    Nobody predicts the most important economic shocks and surprises.
    Everyone’s bank account lost about 7% of purchasing power last year. The poor and elderly hit hardest thanks to Central planners at the Fed. Nobody has been fired for this!

  139. Fabius Maximus says:

    Post of the day!

    Frank Conniff @FrankConniff
    So, let me get this straight. Conservatives who support the trucker caravan and blockade DON’T want the Bandit to get to Atlanta with the beer on time?

  140. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi, saw this and thought of you. The Dave Gahan is strong in this one!

  141. Fabius Maximusa says:

    Nick Merrill @NickMerrill
    The NYTimes just printed a story on Trump’s mishandling of classified information. They asked for comment from Hillary Clinton’s office as this exposes his hypocrisy. In typical form, the NYT’s editors declined to print the comment, so posting it here.

  142. Phoenix haha edition says:

    Bill Maher says Freedom Convoy truckers have a right to be ‘pissed off’ at elitists who ‘sit at home in their Lululemons’ before comparing Canadian PM Justin Trudeau to Hitler for questioning if the unvaccinated should be ‘tolerated’

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