From the Star Ledger:
How much does it cost to own a home in the U.S.?
Home prices across the United States have hit an all-time high, meaning more Americans are losing their buying power and fewer Americans are able to find affordable homes.
The median price of a home in the U.S. skyrocketed to a record $392,000 in February, according to a report from Realtor.com.
Housing prices grew at an “unusually fast” pace of 12.9%, according to the report, which also forecasted this year’s homebuying season in the spring will be very competitive.
In New Jersey, there are at least 34 cities where the average home price exceeds $1 million.
“February’s new record high for the median listing price places housing affordability front and center for this year’s real estate markets, especially as we gear up for the spring season,” Realtor.com chief Danielle Hale told Insider.
Market trends suggest the increase in home prices could continue through the spring, which is traditionally the hottest buying season of the year.
Foist. And Best.
Try a search for $400k ….no $550k along “coastal” say 15 miles inland, California.
You won’t find anything……that’s your future….if you can get property taxes under control.
Why isn’t it a good move?
This is prob only starting to run.
BRT says:
March 4, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Think I’m going to ride this oil train. Buying into OIH for the short term.
sigh…Eddie Mush strikes again
OIH is still f’ing cheap based on the current environment.
I remember trying to tell people that I was buying a cheap house based on long-term pricing. No one wanted to believe me. Said I was saving huge amounts of money if i make this my home till retirement. Now try finding a colonial for 650k.
Ex says:
March 5, 2022 at 7:46 am
Try a search for $400k ….no $550k along “coastal” say 15 miles inland, California.
You won’t find anything……that’s your future….if you can get property taxes under control.
Remember, when I was yelling and screaming that wayne and Fairfield were the best values in north jersey in 2018? You could have found so many homes in the 400k range back then. Now…gone with the wind. It’s never coming back.
Why isn’t it a good move?
This is prob only starting to run.
I didn’t say anything about oil, just that you are bad luck.
re: Told ya…
Besides the bad communications to their troops the realtiy is you cannot make a deal with the Devil. If he cannot have it nobody can. Every city will be leveled until they surrender. No different than Allepo in Syria or Grozny in Chechnya, the bombs will rain down until they die or surrender.
So far approx 2 Million people have fled Ukraine.
“Kyiv accused Moscow of violating the agreed-to cease-fire and resuming its attacks on residential areas By Yaroslav Trofimov
Updated March 5, 2022 7:44 am ET
KYIV, Ukraine—The agreement between Russia and Ukraine on evacuating civilians from the besieged cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha collapsed on Saturday, as Kyiv accused Moscow of violating the agreed-to cease-fire and resuming its attacks on residential areas.
Some 200,000 civilians were expected to start leaving Mariupol and 15,000 from Volnovakha in eastern Ukraine at 9 a.m. local time, in a deal overseen by the International Committee of the Red Cross. But, at 11:45, Russia resumed shelling Volnovakha with heavy weapons, while also continuing military operations on the route leading out of Mariupol, said Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358
Pumps,
I remember trying to tell people that I was buying a cheap house based on long-term pricing. No one wanted to believe me. Said I was saving huge amounts of money if i make this my home till retirement. Now try finding a colonial for 650k.
You are completely clueless when it comes to what will happen if the Fed goes through with 6-8 rate increases in one year. This could be a good teaching moment for you, but with your entitlement attitude everything will still go completely over your head. Even your pension could collapse, I am pretty sure you don’t have much put away for a rainy day.
Jim Well said. I believe anyone that thinks rising interest rates won’t affect housing prices is mistaken. Throw in rising property taxes and everything else and a continued rise in housing prices is not going to happen. This boom in large part was driven by artificially low interest rates. Of course a shortage of inventory contributed, to the rise, but the jet fuel was low interest rates.
I remember back in the late 80s experts were saying a whole generation would be shut out of housing and be renting forever. Well, as we know that did not happen.
It’s always different this time when there is a new housing bubble , except it never is.
Looks like the Stingers missiles are coming in handy, taken out an SU 34 advanced expensive fighter bomber and several other aircraft in the last day.
One of Russia’s top pilots shot down and captured Major Krivolapov a “fat” pilot who is seen in photos with Assad and Putin.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t781h7/one_of_the_captured_russian_su34_pilots_in/
Past day, they have taken out several aircraft
1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft
– 1 Su-34 strike aircraft
– 3 Su-25 close air support aircraft
– 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
– 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
– 1 Orlan-10 UAV
BTW – with all the gear the Ukies keep capturing they are also finding some newer anti aircraft weapons to use for themselves.
Besides the vehicle rocket mounted anti aircraft weapons we have seen in pictures that cost $25 million dollars, they have also captured several shoulder launched 9K333 Verba MANPADS -(these shot down Apaches and Blackhawks during the gulf war and even rumored an F-16).
#1 person who did not make money following Phmpkin’s bullish on north Jersey housing call is . . . Drumroll . . . Pumpkin himself!
The guy owns a multi from early 2000’s, buys a sfh in like 2011 or 2012, and then doesn’t buy another property from 2012-2022 while shouting “Bull on NJ housing!” Meanwhile, fine Clifton 2-fams were selling for 3-handles until like 2014, 4-handles through to 2018. He didn’t scrape together 80k for a down payment on a $4xx purchase that whole time, even though he is already in the land lording business and thus has some synergies (a fair plumber, a form lease, experience dealing with several tenant issues) that would make an expansion make sense if one is bullish. $80k could have been a home equity line, some lenders would let it go through. He didn’t find someone to seller finance him 100% or 95% of a sale price. He didn’t partner up so as to create a low-down pay or no down pay ownership position.
He’s still likely a millionaire if including home equity, but there was probably another million he could have had today if he acted on his bull conviction.
House prices: The pendulum is going to swing the other way faster than we’ve seen in previous sessions. Property taxes, interest rates and inflation is going to put a lid on price elevations rather quickly. The Chesterfield, Rheingold and cabbage reeking dump will see that “5” handle going to a “4” handle real fast. And with the onset of WW III, who knows what’s going to happen.
I turned on MSNBC just for laughs and once again, they didn’t disappoint. The lefty hooples see this crowd as a group of intellectuals while the rest of us snicker and mock them for their sad stupidity. The topic went from Trump failing to protect the U.S. from cyber attacks to rac1sm at the Polish border. Hold your breath for 30 seconds and the subject will turn to who had an erect1on on January 6th. Real topics the world wants to hear right now.
Have to disagree about low interest rates being the primary driver of the price run up during the pandemic. Rates were very low in the lead up to the pandemic and home prices were going down or sideways in many areas of NJ.
This whole idea of a no fly zone, and people protesting and demanding one. Did the media bother explaining to anyone explain Obama’s deception in 2011, when we went into Libya, supposedly with no boots on the ground?
The idea that Russian planes and missiles won’t fly because we say is not how it works. The 2011 no fly zone over Libya turned into a massive bombing mission. A no fly zone begins with an attack to destroy the air defenses. We would have to launch hundreds of cruise missiles and then perform thousands of bombing runs before our planes can then enforce any kind of no fly zone. That would mean killing thousands of Russian troops while we destroy their anti-aircraft equipment, both inside the Ukraine and near the border on the Belarus and Russian side. It would mean war.
Someone on CNN, MSNBC or any other European media needs to explain this to protestors calling for a no fly zone so they understand.
Old Realtor: Ok. I will defer to you, but rates did get even lower during the pandemic, so that certainly contributed to the increase. House prices up
Over 20 percent year over year. Simply not sustainable, and now with a rising rate environment I believe prices will go down. I wonder how many people regrets buying over the last couple of years, after the novelty of buying a house wears off, and paying that big mortgage every month kicks in. Time will tell, but I believe the real estate party is over.
It kills me, but my wife is risk adverse. Believe me, I tried to talk sense to her, but she didn’t listen. She wanted to be more diversified by building up stock position.
Problem is, she knows we are set in life and has no interest in taking risks to make more money. She lets me go the stock route and I’ll take what I can get as she knows she has to feed my obsession. I have to have money making money or I’m not happy. Refuse to rely on a job for my security in life. Multiple revenue streams are a must.
Crushednjmillenial says:
March 5, 2022 at 10:47 am
#1 person who did not make money following Phmpkin’s bullish on north Jersey housing call is . . . Drumroll . . . Pumpkin himself!
Bingo. It’s not the rates driving demand, it’s generational demographics. You have a group bigger than the boomers making their way through the housing market. Simple as that. Just look at the impact the boomers had on the market. Drove up starter homes in 80’s. Then didn’t buy 90’s because they were saving and increasing their earnings through 90’s. Then the boomers began to hit peak earning years in 1999 and started purchasing dream homes, investment properties, and second homes. They then finished buying and crashed the market as no one was left to continue buying as millennials started 10 years later than previous generations.
Now you have the perfect storm of boomers retiring and competing with millennials in cheaper markets. They now drove up the price of all cheap locations. I would be scared ah!t to hold real estate in a boomer dominated market. No buying support once they start dying and selling these homes. Talking about million plus priced houses driven up in retirement locations by boomers…who can afford that sh!t in those markets once boomer leaves?
Old realtor says:
March 5, 2022 at 11:08 am
Have to disagree about low interest rates being the primary driver of the price run up during the pandemic. Rates were very low in the lead up to the pandemic and home prices were going down or sideways in many areas of NJ.
OIH is based on servicing the oil industry. Needs $70 oil to profit. I don’t think we go below that for a while, so this etf should run with new investments coming in oil development.
BRT says:
March 5, 2022 at 9:02 am
Why isn’t it a good move?
This is prob only starting to run.
I didn’t say anything about oil, just that you are bad luck.
+1
also, moratorium on foreclosures and evictions, forbearance on student loans, helicopter money. People feel flush, but it is a mirage.
Just wait……. 3/5/2022 1:59PM
3b says:
March 5, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Old Realtor: Ok. I will defer to you, but rates did get even lower during the pandemic, so that certainly contributed to the increase. House prices up
Over 20 percent year over year. Simply not sustainable, and now with a rising rate environment I believe prices will go down. I wonder how many people regrets buying over the last couple of years, after the novelty of buying a house wears off, and paying that big mortgage every month kicks in. Time will tell, but I believe the real estate party is over.
Translation, Im 2 years behind you on the trade, but let me tell you how it works.
Putin seems pissed, sanctions must be working.
Brt,
Of energy stocks, I’m starting to like this area a lot. It’s lagged the producers. And with renewed and intense calls for more production, the thesis for continued strong performance is there. Mock it, or take a look, doesn’t matter to me.
“Translation, Im 2 years behind you on the trade, but let me tell you how it works.”
LOL.
Dipped a toe in Friday on shorting CL futures….hedged, so if infrastructure gets blown to hell, Russia 100% off market, and Iran a no-go I don’t get blown up….but for now Russian oil shipments are already off anywhere from 20-40% and Ural oil can be had at the border for 20% discount to spot (ie, it’s not moving). No ships are heading in to load what they offer at the ports – optics for buyers, no financing, no ability to insure the ships against seizure – so while oil can certainly rocket to $130 my point is that much of Russian production is already effectively off the market (ie, priced in) and the weight of the trade goes the other way…there is some potential settlement among parties given how hard the Russians are getting squeezed or alternatively some agreement with Iran. We’ll see. It’s literally rolling dice at this point. FWIW
“Have to disagree about low interest rates being the primary driver of the price run up during the pandemic. Rates were very low in the lead up to the pandemic and home prices were going down or sideways in many areas of NJ.”
Agree, old/30/40….
It’s difficult since it seems like a lifetime ago but transport back to late 2019…rates were kicking bottom, the Fed focus was on trying to find a way, any way, to bump up 25bps so they would have something in reserve for a downturn, stocks were at an all time peak and getting toppy, and as you say real estate was faltering.
The pandemic allowed what was likely to be an inevitable impending downturn to get folded into a worldwide shutdown of economies. That shutdown, and the fiscal and monetary explosion to counteract it, produced so much noise which now for good measure is getting amplified and distorted by a land war in Europe….
One could presumably pull apart real estate sales/buyer data to discern underlying causes…I don’t have the time or the benefit to do so….but any straight causality on a macro level is just not valid with the wild distortions of the pandemic and response.
Pumps: Simple as that? I think that’s part of the problem with you everything is as simple as that.
3b,
You can drop rates all you want, but if there are not more buyers than sellers, price isn’t going anywhere. Do you understand why there are bidding wars? Do you understand how difficult it is to find a house to buy right now? You think rates drove the car prices up or overwhelming demand compared to supply? Wake up.
You should have listened to me last decade, but you didn’t. Instead you double downed on busting my balls for calling a coming bull market in housing.
So just booked TTB, Warren Haynes, and Oteil B….Haven’t ever seen the first two, excited about WH as he’s solo, and have seen OB but only with Dead & Co so hopefully this is a different treat. That one is at the Capitol, it makes sense I never made it up there before but what a great venue (and neat towns nearby, TY By). Decent for March. Plus Bobby Weir in (lol) Syracuse at the end of the month…will be part of an Ithaca trip chi….maybe I hunt Clot down….
3b,
Remember all those posts saying I need meds in response to my housing calls. Remember saying give it a rest. Sounds just like my WFH debate with you..just saying. You yelling at me that burbs are dead and millennials will rent for life. All the experts were on your side, I was alone but stood my ground. Will do the same with WFH trend.
Pumps: It’s different this time , then insert the reason, only to find out it’s not different and the. the how could anyone have seen it coming. Time will tell.
Chgo : Good points.
Pumps: Sorry I left an opening for your WFH delirium! You really do need meds and or therapy or both. Your obsession and hatred of WFH is bizarre. I mean I know why and all, but it’s really sad we all return to the office for your own ( well known) personal selfish reasons. Keep on howling!!
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2022/03/03/ukraine-day-7/#comment-1248296
Joyce: Duly notes. I am worse than he is.
That’s the bottom line. Her time will come again.
“The Financial Times has published a lengthy profile of Cathie Wood, the star fund manager whose key fund has suffered as futuristic tech stocks have fallen out of favor.
The ARK Innovation Fund ARKK, -4.79%, ARK Invest’s flagship fund, has fallen nearly 50% from its peak of last year, and according to Morningstar, most investors in Ark’s funds are underwater since the better returns came when it had a small asset base. Investors still believe in Wood, however, as the fund has drawn in $488 million of inflows this year, according to FactSet data.
In addition to quoting Wood, the newspaper reached out to her former boss, Lisa Shalett, who’s now chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and oversaw her at AllianceBernstein. Shallett acknowledged Wood’s effort, saying she would be weighed down by bags and bags of research, but said her investing style was a rollercoaster ride.
“Cathie’s a boom or bust investor because she doesn’t disinvest or risk manage. This is the challenge that she has had for her entire career,” said Shallett.
“We all love a great story. She does her research; she believes what she believes. Sometimes when the market moves against her, she digs in more,” Shallett added.
Wood hasn’t lost her optimism. “For compliance reasons, I’ve been asked not to give numbers, but the compound annual rate of return expectation that we have during the next five years is the largest I have ever seen in my career,” she said.”
You have to realize the risk that comes with this type of investing style. It’s a rollercoaster ride. It’s not for most people. They can’t stomach the ride.
488 million in inflows. Those people are going to be big winners long-term buying in now. Might go even more lower, but it doesn’t matter, a winner is a winner. These are prices that are cheap. Think of it like buying into oil stocks two years ago when no one wanted to touch them.
Meanwhile, in High end Real estate we have the Ukraine Yellow Canary Turning Blue edition ….
Two hours after emailing a real estate newsletter of luxury homes to thousands of ultra-wealthy clients Friday morning, Shawn Elliott, president of the ultra luxury division at Nest Seekers International, said he received three inquiries. They were not from potential buyers, but sellers.
The calls came from New York and Miami, two hot spots popular with wealthy Russians, a possible sign of what may become the rapid sale of luxury homes, beachfront properties and apartments in the cities’ skylines as Russians scramble to get ahead of international sanctions.
“People like that have their handlers call,” Elliott said of the Russian owners. They asked, “‘If I was to sell, how fast could you sell this and how fast could you sell that?'”
“It’s interesting how the feelers are going out,” he noted. “Maybe that’s the beginning of the scramble.”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/politics/sanctions-russian-oligarch-elites/index.html
Did Putin just win the military war?
The EU just agreed to allow any Ukrainian refugee to LIVE and WORK anywhere in the EU for three years. I’d estimate that 10-20% of the Ukrainian population had some serious interest in moving to Germany or other Western Euro countries.
So, a 35-year old Ukrainian man who sends his wife to the border with their 5-year old kid has two choices:
(1) get shelled by artillery to defend your homeland (but, the homeland is run by extremely corrupt big/shots with their noses in the air and you earn 300 Eur a month for full-time rock breaking);
(2) throw your weapon down and sneak into Hungary- get a ride to Germany and join your wife in Frankfurt and make 1500 Eur/ month to wash dishes. Watch your kid grow up and sleep peaceful under the NATO umbrella. One day, maybe they will make you go back to Ukraine but the Russian proxies are in charge so you aren’t punished for desertion.
Crushed,
Here is the other side.
Anders Östlund @andersostlund
Heard from woman in Kyiv with a conscript brother in Belarusian army. He had been brought to the border for some fake reason. Now that he understands what’s coming he said “Go to war against my sister?!”, I will surrender at the first possible moment. Young, unaware, unmotivated.
One for you Gary!
https://twitter.com/TheRealHoarse/status/1499551441454878721
Awesome, left. I have seen all of them separate and together as ABB. Highlight will always be seeing Clapton come out at Beacon and trading solos with WH and Derek on Liz Reed probably 12 years We may not agree always on politics but music is the great delegate. Always impressed as the appreciation of various music that this blog shares…Ed, Ex, You, Lib, Gri, Chi and lots forgetting. Off to Capitol tonight to see Marcus King Band. First time..seeing a buddy I have not seen since before pandemic. I missed Billy S as kids got sick. Missed Kingfish Ingram in my backyard couple weeks back when I got sick. Looking forward to this one.
Ha, enjoy Marcus King! Definitely on my list to catch. Review tomorrow pls!
Lol take a look?
On train back , I had to leave a little early so missed encore. They played Liz Reed, amazing.
Never seen a dual talent like Marcus. His voice is Stevie Wonder Eqsue and playing is absurd. Interesring sound, very prog rock/70s fusion on many tunes.Swear I heard Herbie Hancock Vein melter teases, the
breaks out deep blues. Go see him for sure
Maybe some tease of Air Blow by Blow, Jeff Beck. One of my top 10 albums, for sure
Air Blower from Blow by Blow.
I truly believe in her.
“Wood got off to a rough start. “At the midterm, she did very poorly,” Laffer recalls. He says it was common at the time for students to cry in his class or drop out altogether as a consequence of its difficulty. “She didn’t do that. She said, ‘So what do I have to do to get better?’ And she did get better. Cathie works harder than anyone I know. She always has.”
Laffer often started his classes with a joke or some bit of relatable news to draw students in. By the time a seminar ended, the blackboard was a scrawl of equations and calculations. “We didn’t know what hit us,” Wood says. She calls Laffer’s ability to combine storytelling and hard data “a gift”.”
“But Wood’s track record at AllianceBernstein was both volatile and underwhelming, according to Morningstar. Shalett says that Wood’s investing style was a “rollercoaster ride” for clients and that it found greater traction with retail investors than with the institutional market. Even so, Wood continued to display the same conviction Segalas had admired at Jennison. “She is disciplined and missionary in her approach. She’s an evangelist for tech, and it’s infectious,” says Shalett. “We all love a great story. She does her research; she believes what she believes. Sometimes when the market moves against her, she digs in more.”
“Wood has clearly pondered the question of longevity. “Many people in our business… they’d be quite happy to see us disappear,” she says. Repeatedly during our conversation she refers to herself as a “lightning rod” for the industry. To these critics, Wood represents the worst aspects of a frothy market, the gate-crashing of low-information retail investors and the triumph of a good story over hard data. None of which can end soon enough. For her retail following, she represents a middle finger to all of that. Fans want to believe her stories of a better, brighter future filled with flying cars, green energy and longer, healthier lives.
But as the interview draws to a close, Wood is keen to make one last, important point. When it comes to Ark’s investments, “the courage of my conviction” is not the result of any higher calling. It “comes from our research”, she says. “I just want to make that very clear.”
https://www.ft.com/content/a93f4de2-35d2-44e1-a6a1-0000cba0dd4d
Pumps,
Sounds like you are getting a woody for Cathy, secret fantasy?
Cathy has lost millions for her followers, give it up buddy even trolls know when to throw in the towel.
Costco in Wayne is still $3.71 for regular. Just drove past six cars deep in line. The Exxon a block up is $4.09 and the little dumpy one across from Hooters is $4.11.
I filled up on Friday at $3.89 regular. Same gas station was $4.09 this morning (Sunday).
Encirclement, siege and humanitarian corridors . . .
In the Syrian War, we saw over-and-over again that Assad’s forces would encircle a city or town. They would cut off electricity, gas lines and water. They would shell the city. Then, they would offer a humanitarian corridor. One road that allows fighters and civilians to walk out (obviously, without any arms). Many times, if a rebel city was cut off from other rebel areas, there would be a fleet of buses waiting to take the people to rebel lines.
This technique, in my opinion, is going to be the way forward for Putin in Ukraine and thus he will take much less in casualties. The Russians have shown that they cannot surgically take objectives like the American army. So, Ukranian fighters will be shelled by artillery and air strikes, then they will be offered humanitarian corridors westward. And, the EU is open to any Ukranians if they want to tap out and go re-unite with their families in Belgium, France, Denmark or Germany (or, for those who already have an internet-based job coding for a Western company, they can go to Budapest or Bucharest and have lower living costs and better quality of life than they would in a richer Euro nation).
I’m surprised that the US allowed the EU to offer Ukranians a 3-year visa. While, of course, it is the moral thing from a humanitarian perspective, it is not from a geopolitical perspective. It is in the US’s geopolitical interest for Russia to bleed in Ukraine like they did in the Soviet-Afghan war. By giving Ukrainaians a release valve, the US has reduced the will to fight in Ukraine (increasingly so, as word spreads amongst the UKr civilians holding arms and waiting to confront Russian military right now).
Compare how you would feel about fighting to hold Kyiv versus fleeing to the EU if it meant years in a refugee camp – no work, no money, surviing on UN rice and beans, no formal education for your children, and an uncertain future. Compare that to having some kind of legal status in any EU country – no legal impediment to finding work; techincally, you should be able to enroll your kids in public school right next to all the Portuguese locals or Italian locals or whatever. You can walk to the market and buy the flavor of chips you like, you can take a walk in the park, you can save up your money (albeit from meager wages) and take your family to the beach for a day trip.
The US needed the Russian army to look inept. The US needed Russian soliders to die, so that their families in Russia would harbor anger toward the regime. The US needed Russian treasure expended to keep the war effort going to such an extent tht the Russian civilian says wt-f. With the economic sanctions, maybe a mass movement topples the regime or at least the mass movement emblodens some 5-star general or a powerful oligarch to have Putin put down and seize power. Unless . . . maybe a deal has been made behind the scenes with Putin and the US is engaging in theatre toward us regulr folk.
Jim,
I believe in her overall experience, work ethic, research, and conviction. Arkk might fall another 10-20%, but any stoppage of fighting/change in FED to dovish position, and those stocks will fly.
Like the bottom line of her thesis. There are lots of problems out there, and she is investing in the companies that will address those problems. Her funds are as close as you can get to venture capital investment in the public market.
I haven’t made up my mind yet, might play OIH for a short term play, or just buy a stock I absolutely love at beat to sh!t levels…DNA. Been patiently waiting to buy into DNA. Was close to buying in during the last 10 minutes of the market on Friday, but will gamble that it goes lower. DNA hopefully will end up being a home run at these levels.
Left: Colgate advanced, so regardless of the rest of today, the Red get them this coming weekend in Ithaca.
The endpoint was well advertised when Russian forces encircled the entire nation for three weeks and we explicitly stated we would not engage on UKR territory.
Everything following is just running out the clock….there will be valor, bravery, movie moments, and atrocities. But like a bad novel you already know the ending before being even halfway through.
Saddest for me is that every human should have the right to self-determination…the personal freedom of their ideas and the right to associate in a form they choose with one another based on those ideas.
The Russians haven’t had that for, what, centuries? The Ukrainians for the most part did and tried to maintain it. We weighed the tangible and intangible costs to our nation of defending their natural right and came to the conclusion we did, to stand down.
We gave them the next best choice to survive.
In a moment of incredible irony and cognitive dissonance as I type this CBS Sunday Morning is running a small segment on the war comparing it to David and Goliath, biblical graphics and all.
I am truly speechless…..but that seems par for the course these days.
chi, I’ve given up on Red….didn’t realize until recently the season tailspin coincided with Schafer becoming ill and off the bench for weeks on end…no emotion, just disappointment…pre-COVID I would make the trip to LP for the ECAC championship weekend to see the games…haven’t even really considered it this season….listen, I’m hopeful, one game at a time…if they can take the ECAC tourney they are in, firm. Otherwise, not. I think Clarkson is going to be really tough…they are just outside looking in on the final of the 16 NCAA tourney slots…even if they don’t win the ECAC they could just squeak in depending on OSU and what the losses by Mass and BU mean for them….they went from likely not having a shot to being maybe next in line…should be some fun hockey next weekend….and pull for Penn State over OSU tonight lol.
2015:
https://bit.ly/34iG9r9
“This moment may serve as an inflection point that accelerates a deglobalization shift. The US is increasingly thinking of technology supply chains as a matter of national security, while China thinks something similar of its dependence on food imports.”
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1500470287292370945?s=21
The article she is referencing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/xi-says-china-can-t-rely-on-world-markets-for-food-security
Age of ultra cheap goods/high profits due to globalization arbitrage might be dead.
This is kind of funny. Speaks to Plumpy’s schizophrenia. Didn’t he recently just say that no one warned him about this inflation? He warned himself even!
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 19, 2021 at 4:22 pm
Bystander,
They didn’t technically print out money and put it directly in circulation. They filled holes that would have led to the gears of the economy coming to a halt. They artificially filled demand to keep the system going and then took back those calls.
Stimulus payments are printing up money. It’s putting money directly into the hands of the consumer. It’s okay, though, it’s needed and will be paid back with growth. It’s not like these people had a choice to stop spending; so it’s not as harmful, as these individuals had jobs and were producing before the govt shut them down. It’s just greasing the gears, keeping the economy going, as opposed to a brutal domino effect that is hard to get out of when a gear comes to a stop.
If a gear is allowed to stop. It destroy the rest of the economy. It will take so much more capital to get it going again, so it’s better to throw some capital at it before it requires substantially more.
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 19, 2021 at 4:25 pm
So we might finally see inflation with the stimulus measures, but what the fed did since 2008, was not simply printing up money. That’s why inflation never came.
Yea, lib, I didn’t see the supply chains crashing and neither did the FED. It threw a wrench in those gears and set off a domino effect of inflation throughout the economy.
That’s the thing, the FED allowed the stimulus because they knew the economy could handle a little higher inflation like 4%. They just never saw the inflation coming from the supply chain. Totally f’ed the energy market by putting the ball back into OPEC’s court.
Hardest part of getting these rigs up…labor. They can’t find enough skilled laborers to get nee rigs up and running.
Labor market is in trouble. When people know the employer can’t hire anyone else, they want overpayment for what becomes half ass work. Going to hurt the economy. You already see it at the food service level. Workers are simply walking zombies doing a half ass job. Barely working.
Oh there’s no question that across all aspects of the respective incidents, from the circumstances and nature of the engagement to the subsequent government response, the United States’ behavior makes Russia look like a model international citizen. Russia both agreed to an international investigation and issued a front-page apology to the Netherlands shortly after the incident and they didn’t even shoot the bloody plane down. Where was the US apology to Iran in the days following IA655?
Let us recall that the United States lied both to its own citizens and the world about virtually every material aspect of what happened and then, even after said lies had been exposed, expressed no remorse (“I will never apologize for the United States, I don’t care what the facts are” — former Vice President, Presidential Candidate, and later President of the United States George H. W. Bush) and gave the military personnel responsible a medal, before buying off UN involvement. In contrast, even Australia’s Prime Minister has been forced to concede that Putin has said “all the right things”.
All in all, it’s pretty much the standard American response whenever one of the atrocities they routinely commit around the world comes to light: deny it, lie about it, reject international involvement, reward the people responsible.
Two wrongs don’t make a right, but they do make listening to the mindless bleating from certain nations very trying.
Taxpayers paid 3 Mil. Will justice be served on this one in America? Looks like it’s already slipping away.
DENVER — A former Colorado police officer shown on body camera video roughly arresting a 73-year-old woman with dementia and later seen joking about it with colleagues pleaded guilty to assault Wednesday in a plea deal opposed by the woman’s family.
Austin Hopp faces up to eight years in prison when he’s sentenced in May for second-degree assault, although the judge also has the discretion to sentence him to probation or a halfway house. He had faced a mandatory prison sentence of between 10 and 32 years under an original, more serious assault count he was charged with.
A federal lawsuit that Garner filed claimed he dislocated her shoulder. The city settled the lawsuit for $3 million, money which her family said will pay for the around-the-clock care she has needed after her condition deteriorated following her arrest.
Speaking on behalf of Garner’s extended family, Garner’s daughter-in-law Shannon Steward told Judge Michelle Brinegar that the family never wanted a plea deal, which she said tend to be used when there is a lack of evidence or an inability to prove a case.
LW
I agree. But in your plan to separate America into two countries, should a “skirmish” break out, don’t you think that either side would be fueled with weapons from other countries just like Ukraine is?
Lib: Fed screwed up royally. Fed will have to tighten and tighten hard. Jerome’s new schtick is that inflation should taper off by year end ( Whatever that actually means). Not happening, higher rates , a recession and a cleaning out of all the excess. Party is over.
Phoenix, good to see you back brother, hope all is well. Eh, the Red/Blue separation arose from my thoughts on self determination…the inherent right to free ideas and to organize with those you choose around those ideas…on that basis the US writ large isn’t working any more…Red in power squashes Blue, and vice versa. And the spread between the ideals has become too large to bridge. Separate, and let each group self govern. Really not controversial, common sense.
People – both sides – will be individually and collectively happier. To your point on conflict I would argue if the gulf becomes so wide violence will happen, one entity or two….although one could reasonably argue two separate self determining entities each under their own different but related ideals are less likely to fight than an oppressed large minority in a larger entity hostile to their ideas. Germany and France. US and Canada currently.
3b, yeah, I have no idea on the Fed…obviously they’ve been writing checks they literally cannot cash since 2009. Now, I have this voice in the back of my head that JPow sees some bad stuff forthcoming prompting him to go so softly…the man is among the smartest in the room, has effectively unfettered resources, and has better data than anyone else…
With that setup regarding his hesitancy one would have to believe that he is illogical or has worse data than publicly available, or that he sees the big black storm clouds that we don’t because he is on the other side of the tree line….either way, it feels like he is hoping for a period of consolidation where inflation comes in on its own somewhat while the economy marches on so the economy effectively ‘normalizes’ on its own without too much Fed action.
Good luck there….can’t recall the last time Fed increases did not result in a recession and the 2/10 came in to 27bps Friday so very little room…he’s running out of rope and as he waits the world keeps throwing out of left field shit at him…global pandemic, war in the European theater. Fucking guy better pull the trigger soon or we’ll be invaded by aliens next.
Another day, another $75,000,000 handed to Russia for their oil. You know, we need to lead on the climate issue and dare not to extract anymore than we’re currently pulling from the ground. It doesn’t matter that the oil is coming from another country, it’s all about appearance and symbolic gesture. We have a different form of propaganda than say, North Korea or Russia.
Ours is a democratic type of message… a subtle message that slowly brainwashes the hoople muppets. A wasteful government run by incompetents is essential for the “proper” message. If Trump was prez right now, not a drop more of crude comes from Russia, we wave the green flag to turn every rig on and we point a finger at China and tell them, don’t even think about getting up from your chair.
But, we have a puppet in the White House, too worried about the American Oligarch Party and dragging his feet like they were knee deep in the sand and chained to a bowling ball.
Left: Great analysis as always. I don’t think the Fed has any tools left to engineer a soft landing, and I agree I don’t see how a recession is avoided.
I don’t know who we are supposed to believe after this massive low/ no rate asset inflation party, and massive amounts of stimulus that it all quietly ends with a bit of a hangover. Recessions are painful of course but I don’t see how it’s avoided. Perhaps, as you say Powell sees things we do not, and of course Ukraine situation muddies the water, and he will go softly, but that’s only kicking the can down the road with perhaps an even uglier recession. Time will tell.
Phoenix says:
March 6, 2022 at 11:36 am
“the United States’ behavior makes Russia look like a model international citizen…”
Phoenix says:
March 6, 2022 at 11:45 am
“Taxpayers paid 3 Mil. Will justice be served on this one in America?”
Phoenix, your anger, bitterness and cynicism are very clear; I assume they stem from your divorce, and the way you were treated by law enforcement and the legal system more generally. Understanding that many (most ???) divorces are very nasty, I’m wondering if you can give a sense of what happened to cause your anger at the entire ‘system’, rather than run-of-the-mill anger at your ex (at maybe her lawyer)? Were you arrested and jailed? Were you damaged professionally/prevented from practicing? Were you prevented from seeing your children? Were you financially damaged such that your standard of living significantly declined? Something else? Not prying, but curious as to the extent of your bitterness. And as someone getting re-married after many years, interested in any lessons-learned.
leftwing says:
March 6, 2022 at 10:12 am
“We weighed the tangible and intangible costs to our nation of defending their [Ukraine] natural right and came to the conclusion we did, to stand down…”
You give too much credit to this administration to assume that they undertook any kind of disciplined examination of options, strategies, costs and decided to stand down. This admin is incompetent — we have a year’s worth of disasters to prove that, but we know it in this specific case if no other reason than the VP stated on Feb 20 that proposed sanctions would act as a deterrent and the Prez just four days later said “No-one expected the sanctions to prevent anything…”. That kind of incoherence at the very top of the admin, at such a critical point in time, is mind-boggling. Frankly, I don’t think this administration has any strategy at all; I think they just have their fingers crossed that sanctions ‘work’ — without even knowing what that would mean or how it would manifest. So while our incompetent and incoherent admin sits around hoping for the best, I guarantee that Vlad is already think about what’s next. He’s already moved the goalposts in talking about Ukraine possibly losing statehood; wait until he formally stakes a claim to the arctic and starts harassing the Baltics. What then? Would be nice to think that our team was thinking and acting strategically, but you’d have to be a stooge to believe that’s the case.
SGC, yeah, I’m critical of both established parties and their leaders but I’ll agree the biggest fraud perpetrated on the American public was that Joe was an international relations wizard and that he would restore our standing in the world…
Eh, at least it will make for some interesting 2024 campaign commercials…juxtapose those claims against the backdrop of humans falling to their death from the sky after clinging to our airplanes fleeing Afghanistan and whichever horror du jour you want from Ukraine…
A New Jersey man has been convicted for the 2016 murder of two children and a college student after he broke into a house, tortured, stabbed the kids to death and fatally shot the student because he was angry over a Facebook post, prosecutors announced Saturday. Jeremy Arrington, 31, was found guilty on a number of charges related to the Newark home invasion, where authorities said he tortured six people, killing three of them – two of which were children – and stabbing the three others, according to the Essex County prosecutor. Arrington stabbed Aerial Little Whitehurst, 8, and Al-Jahon Whitehurst, 11 to death before shooting Syasia McBorroughs, 23, to death. McBorroughs was a college student who had been visiting the family at the time of the murders, authorities said. Their mother, 29, was among the three injured in the attack.
“This move in crude. Wow. Brent above $130 (hit $137) in the first few minutes of trading.”
https://twitter.com/ferrotv/status/1500608946461200384?s=21
Not touching OIH now…that sector is out of control. Too big, too fast.
SGC
We ever meet at a GTG I will explain it all to you.
Good guy, good insights, worth the bookmark usually….
https://www.profgalloway.com/down-round/
Gold, Oil, Silver, Palladium too da moon….
Not touching OIH now…that sector is out of control. Too big, too fast.
Thank you, I was getting ready to sell it all Monday morning.
Yeah screw that diesel pickup truck now. Back to electric.
CNBC has an expert based in NJ noting that in the most competitive trucking corridor in the State diesel has topped $5 a gallon….
He just says up to $30 of air in spot if there is a resolution, eg. cease fire…
Between this and the volatility trade – which apparently has gone mainstream – a very good lesson in sizing appropriately….
5 dollar per gallon gas. Food prices rising, rent rising, medical care rising,
Gonna crush many families. Some might even become homeless.
Lazy Bas tur dz.
They will become a blight on society /s
Some families might even not be able to afford to shop at Whole Paycheck anymore.
Oh, the humanity
Just wait until inflation starts bleeding through into NJ property taxes.
So Biden officials are in Venezuela this week and are now planning a trip to the Middle East to beg the Saudis for more oil.
“CARACAS/WASHINGTON, March 6 (Reuters) – U.S. and Venezuelan officials discussed the possibility of easing oil sanctions on Venezuela but made scant progress toward a deal in their first high-level bilateral talks in years, five sources familiar with the matter said, as Washington seeks to separate Russia from one of its key allies.
Both sides used Saturday’s meeting in Caracas to present what one of the sources described as “maximalist” demands, reflecting longtime tensions between the Western Hemisphere’s main power and one of its biggest ideological foes.”
“As a concession, the U.S. officials were willing to consider temporarily allowing Venezuela to use the SWIFT system, which facilitates financial transactions between banks worldwide, to move money to other accounts, one of the sources said.
Maduro sought a total lifting of sanctions prohibiting Venezuela’s oil exports, the removal of sanctions on him and other Venezuelan officials and the return to the state’s control of PDVSA’s U.S. subsidiary Citgo Petroleum, sources said.”
7:33 wahhhhhhh
So Biden officials are in Venezuela this week and are now planning a trip to the Middle East to beg the Saudis for more oil.
This is as immoral as the Russians bombing civilians. Now begging Venezuela for oil as their citizens scrounge through dumpsters. For what? Our comfort? Aww.. poor us. And sucking the Saudis d1cks for a fix as well. Pathetic. We have it here. I have no idea what slo joe’s handlers are thinking.
lol, travel around the world begging for them to produce more…bur Mr. Biden, can we pump more at home? Absolutely not.
It was only a few months ago the energy secretary laughed at Bloomberg’s Tom Keene when asking if they could produce more. It was also only a few months ago that Biden was nominating the soviet born Saule Omarova for comptroller of the currency…and she went on record stating she wanted to bankrupt the oil industry. This country is full of clowns.
Well, kids go to school with no masks today. They didn’t seem to care either way.
8:29
Wahhhhhhh
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 6, 2022 at 6:33 pm
Not touching OIH now…that sector is out of control. Too big, too fast.
Why would you ever buy anything that is doing so well? When you can buy ARK and watch your money disappear. What a troll, I bought oil stocks at the end of December and also bought some for each (4) of my Grandkids accounts , I hope to hand each one between 20 and 30 thousand when they turn 21. Meanwhile you sit on your hands and do nothing.
We just had the best stock market and real estate ever and you still tout losers. Keep your day job, Phil will take care of you.
Ex says:
March 7, 2022 at 8:49 am
8:29
Wahhhhhhh
Stoned again? Biden is killing us , worst president EVER!!
Joes handlers are the establishment. They nation build, central plan, manipulate. Neocons, beltways insiders, think they can engineer the world political landscape. If they aren’t careful they absolutely could escalate this into a much wider war.
Wahhhhhhh
The sound of a professionally tuned BMW as it runs over a homeless woman.
Hahaha.
I’m sure I’m doing much better than you…but hate all you want. ARK is a long-term investment, you just don’t get it and that’s fine.
Jim says:
March 7, 2022 at 8:55 am
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 6, 2022 at 6:33 pm
Not touching OIH now…that sector is out of control. Too big, too fast.
Why would you ever buy anything that is doing so well? When you can buy ARK and watch your money disappear. What a troll, I bought oil stocks at the end of December and also bought some for each (4) of my Grandkids accounts , I hope to hand each one between 20 and 30 thousand when they turn 21. Meanwhile you sit on your hands and do nothing.
We just had the best stock market and real estate ever and you still tout losers. Keep your day job, Phil will take care of you.
I have less than 1% of my net-worth in ark….
9:04 or an unhinged medical professional
opening his third malpractice suit of the year.
grim says:
March 7, 2022 at 8:00 am
Just wait until inflation starts bleeding through into NJ property taxes.
Phil wants to make sure the tax rebate he is giving taxpayers is paid right back. We have to keep our #1 status for highest real estate taxes in the country. Pathetic politicians.
I have less than 1% of my net-worth in ark….
#metoo.
Grim,
It’s okay. You can handle it when you have paid off your house in 1970, then just take out a home equity loan.
OTOH, if you are 30 years old and bought two years ago…..
So taxes up 10%, and 3% rebate back?
#winning
Of course, tax increases being permanent, and rebates being optional on an annual basis.
So if ARK compounds 40% a year like Cathie told you, you make $2000 dollars?
Jim,
Any questions? I don’t think this guy really cares if property taxes or the price of gas double.
Murphy had a 23-year career at Goldman Sachs, where he held several high-level positions and accumulated considerable wealth before retiring in 2006.
Senior Freeze
Phoenix says:
March 7, 2022 at 9:13 am
Grim,
It’s okay. You can handle it when you have paid off your house in 1970, then just take out a home equity loan.
OTOH, if you are 30 years old and bought two years ago…..
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 7, 2022 at 9:05 am
I’m sure I’m doing much better than you…but hate all you want. ARK is a long-term investment, you just don’t get it and that’s fine.
I seriously doubt that, even with your taxpayer funded pension. All my buildings are 100% paid off and have been for over 15 years. We are in different leagues, you are in the minors.
Pumps,
The message you are supposed to get:
https://youtu.be/2hekDuCBxCc?t=127
9:03 and in a sharp contrast to “planning” your hero Trump “now” wants to “Put Chinese emblems on jet fighters and bomb Russia”……yep.
9:18 Sounds like the perfect time to sell. And Quick.
re: Senior Freeze
It’s for 65 and older or on social security disability and annual income is less than $94,178.
Deal old mom’s little house taxes are north of 11k a year now. She gets back about $6k in the state rebate program. She is 84 now and lives alone, without that rebate and Amazon stock she would not be so wealthy on paper.
Juice,
So every one who meets those criteria add 6k of property tax to the rest of the taxpayers?
Do they just pile that on the debt rolls, or do the younger people just eat the increase?
9:03 and in a sharp contrast to “planning” your hero Trump “now” wants to “Put Chinese emblems on jet fighters and bomb Russia”……yep.
Sounds good! Blame China, clear the skies over Ukraine, have China deny it’s their planes and let China and Russia pummel each other! Nice!!
9:03 and in a sharp contrast to “planning” your hero Trump “now” wants to “Put Chinese emblems on jet fighters and bomb Russia”……yep.
This is funny.
But not very “Presidential,” and a serious guy like Putin probably gets annoyed by it.
But Hillary was worse.
https://youtu.be/CiKZPRoqOpg?t=15
Joe has us paying for both sides of an escalating war with the only off-ramp an economic disaster. Pick your poison. Hard to see how this can be spun to be trumps problem except to the tds people.
We’re arming another country to defend its territorial integrity and we have an open border. Covid may be over but the fentanyl epidemic is raging. Much of it coming from Mexico. We’ve got to be the most brain dead country on earth to be sold on Ukraine being a viral interest.
Yup. And she owns her mistake. Pretty much what I said in response to LIB yesterday. Got the supply shock wrong…
“I got the supply shock wrong. That said, the accelerated shift toward electric transportation will destroy oil consumption at the margin. Long term, though longer term than I expected, oil prices will collapse under the weight of lower demand. Innovation solves problems!”
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1500775098294444036?s=21
11-06-2020: Unleaded regular – $1.82.
Just saying.
Joe wants another 10B to send to Ukraine, alone with all of the billions before that?
Has he ever looked at the credit card statement at the end of the month?
China, OTOH, is going to be getting practically free oil and gas from Russia, making their products for sale even cheaper around the world.
China hasn’t been to Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, or Libya either. Think of all the money they save not fighting wars.
America doesn’t get it, it loves to fight, it loves to bomb, it loves to arrest and shoot.
That costs money. Granny just got 3M cause a cop had a hard on for an Alzheimer patient who forgot to pay for 14 dollars worth of goods. Pony up taxpayer, you got what you wanted.
Good to see the masks go. Hopefully the kids can start to make up for some of the developmental lots they’ve suffered. Now that fauci and the fear mongers have been sent packing is time to start dealing with the aftermath.
Phoenix – Forgot to mention you need to be at least a 10-year resident of the state. You pay your local taxes in full and the state sends the rebate later in the year after the application is completed annually and the budget approved. They can pull the funding if they want to.
There are about 150,000 seniors and homeowners with disabilities in the program, the budget for this year is about $214 million.
I would say that some mention of means testing should be in there like anything else rich people are probably taking advantage to some degree, but is it an entirely worthless program? Those 150,00 home owners are paying the full ride for local taxes and are paying state income tax, the rebate for some keeps them in NJ. For others it is just more net income they can spend or not, as I said perhaps some more means testing.
America is soon be like a patient in DIC.
Thanks, Boomer.
Juice,
You know more than I do about this. Sounds about right to me.
Find one of these and they can get you on disability for a few bucks.
“an unhinged medical professional
opening his third malpractice suit of the year.”
Voila. Frozen property taxes. Hahaha.
Phoenix: People in north Jersey bleed money. People can pay the high property taxes. The higher the taxes the more prestige.
3b
Interesting choice of words. Did you look up DIC? If not, good guess.
It’s about right.
Interesting clip of Trump years ago talking about Europe and specifically Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian energy and how it opens them up to dangers. It ends with the people of Germany in attendance snickering and laughing at him.
https://twitter.com/max_gagliardi/status/1500651600829894656
People in north Jersey bleed money.
I had a menopausal, overweight house tour guide say this exact thing at an open house around the peak in 2006/2007. I corrected her (in a bit of an arrogant tone because it p1ssed me off) and said, “You mean they’re bleeding debt.” Either she didn’t have a clue when it comes to the definition of wealth or she’ll use any tactic to sell. No doubt it’s both.
So why are you always crying about NJ govt workers with a pension? You seem to be doing better than them. So why so mad? Right, you want it all….
“I seriously doubt that, even with your taxpayer funded pension. All my buildings are 100% paid off and have been for over 15 years. We are in different leagues, you are in the minors.”
Wow, Trump thought it. He was the first to ever highlight the Russian dependency. No on in Germany ever considered it. His big brain said it and why did Germany not just change all their energy sourcing asap?
Want to be sick to your stomach?
Search twitter for “Queretaro”.
17 people killed at a Mexican match last night. The violence due to simply wearing a jersey, is confounding. The human race can be so disappointing.
Wow, Trump thought it. He was the first to ever highlight the Russian dependency. No on in Germany ever considered it. His big brain said it and why did Germany not just change all their energy sourcing asap?
They did, but the wrong way, they dismantled a lot of their energy infrastructure in chase of a pipe dream of green energy and now are more reliant than they were at that time.
I imagine Jim to be like Sean Hannity in appearance and demeanor.
From my Jan 1st predictions
Pumpkin rides ARKK down to$60 while talking smack the entire time
No new covid restrictions, because midterm elections are approaching.
Everyone on the board contracts Omicron, except me
90% of stocks retreat to their values prior to the pandemic.
Bystander says:
March 7, 2022 at 10:56 am
“Wow, Trump thought it. He was the first to ever highlight the Russian dependency…”
And yet you voted for a dope that still doesn’t get it. SlowJoe chokes domestic production while giving a green-light to NordStream2 and begging OPEC+ to drill more. So given there are idiots like Joe, and stooges like you who vote for them, it’s necessary for T to reiterate the dangers of dependence.
“Joe wants another 10B to send to Ukraine, alone with all of the billions before that?”
Come on. He waited in line. Now it’s HIS turn to spend your money. Some waste money building walls. Others waste money defending non-interests.
This sort of reminds me of When Corzine put the most money he was allowed to from the pension fund (without needing approval by the rest of the state pension board) into Lehman Brothers, a month before it collapsed.
Good job, BRT. See how that works. Too bad none of you can do the same when you are wrong and I am right. Says a lot…
BRT says:
March 7, 2022 at 11:08 am
From my Jan 1st predictions
Pumpkin rides ARKK down to$60 while talking smack the entire time
No new covid restrictions, because midterm elections are approaching.
Everyone on the board contracts Omicron, except me
90% of stocks retreat to their values prior to the pandemic.
Smallbrain,
You are just too dumb to even look basic US oil production chart. It did not fall under Obama/Biden. It went to highest level 45 years by 2015. Fracking boom was going under before pandemic. Keep blaming it that our energy problems started in last year though and ignoring that oil went to 80 in 2018 and Trump also called OPEC to produce more. No answer on that, right?
By,
Let it be. You are arguing with someone who still believes Trump won the 2020 election.
By, the first order of business was to cancel a major pipeline. Biden in his debate, his Energy Secretary, and his nominee for Comptroller of the currency all stated they wanted to shut down the oil industry. At that point, a grinding halt comes to all future investments with a government so hostile to your business. Oil was already in a Bull market, but the reality is, it only takes a few supply squeezes to send it to the moon. The reality is, the admin’s policies and rhetoric on this issue has affected the price of oil significantly. The war is the perfect storm to make this a legendary multi years crisis. There’s no deflecting here. Everything Biden has done so far has turned to absolute trash and we are only a year in.
BRT,
The pipeline was 95% incomplete even when Trump leaving office. It is phantom not a current solution that Biden stopped. I won’t defend the D rhetoric on renewable energy but oil has always been about market manipulation. Saudis and others will make their billions to make up for 2020 $20/ barrel losses. Magically production will ease situation before world collapses.
I wonder what the turnpike and parkway tolls will increase to next year.
I’m already avoiding them when I can.
I started a bit further west before heading south via the Parkway. $14 r/t to drive to the wastelands of exit 13/A? fkattaheeear
My EZ-Pass replenishment is now $185!
Don’t forget too. High gas prices will curtail driving. This in turn will lower gas usage. So those pesky gas taxes? They’ll be going up too, on top of the gas price increases.
Maybe we should change the state motto to, “Don’t drop the soap!”
By, I’m not arguing that the supply changes off of any of Biden’s policy. But what I will argue is that we probably lost a year on all new projects from their policy and rhetoric. It’s putting us in an awful spot, and at the very least, it’s going to take us an extra year to dig ourselves out of this hole.
That news was totally unnoticed, Lib. F-in sad. Here is one closer to home. I have my loyalties and hatreds but who does this?
PA College Student Expelled For Offensive Sign At Basketball Game
A Washington & Jefferson College student displayed a sign noting the date a Westminster College player’s father died.
We are below 13K again on the Nasty.
This is where the meat hits the frying pan. If we follow through with a down day tomorrow, next support level is 11,000 (first achieved in the Summer of 2020). This would also represent the sloping line of the Trump tax cut infused slope. If you want to see where the markets should be based on the Obama years slope, that would put you around 7,700. Though it would be horrible. Somewhere around there is where I would expect this market to bottom. Though I would start scaling back in around 11K in the case I am wrong.
Jesus, I need to look at my EZPass statements more carefully…about where you coming from BR?
“By, the first order of business was to cancel a major pipeline.”
Another great campaign video…Joe made a huge deal if you recall shutting the pipeline down…first day, right after Inauguration IIRC, he sat at a desk with a pile of EOs and proclaimed and then signed each one, including Keystone. Good video floating around. God bless the Dems if oil is still elevated at midterms. That thing will play in a continuous loop.
By,
Fanaticism suffers the same problems that the fundamental following of religion and politics suffers from. It takes a very weak mind to not realize that everyone’s sh1t stinks.
LOL. His first action after being sworn in. Probably didn’t even have a suit hanging at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave yet when he put the big signing show on……
https://www.npr.org/sections/inauguration-day-live-updates/2021/01/20/958823085/biden-order-blocks-keystone-xl-pipeline
The NRDC guy’s quote is priceless lol
It’s funny. There aren;t too many issues where I don’t lean left these days. But I was adamant about completing Keystone and I am pretty far right on guns, though I am for draconian punishment for those caught using unregistered firearms. Like trigger finger removal, for example.
Off to pay the tolls.
Trigger finger removal lol. Other appendages ought to be up for penal grabs as well.
“By, I’m not arguing that the supply changes off of any of Biden’s policy. But what I will argue is that we probably lost a year on all new projects…”
I’ll argue it, pretty straightforward….any capital project, let alone ones on the scale of drilling, are based off multi-year forecasts (like 10-15 years or better) and return on capital. You’d have to be crazy in the current environment if you are an oil exec to spend a dime on opening a new tap…sure, for the next few weeks, maybe months, there is a payoff as Russia is shut down….what about the following years? No way to justify it, any corporate development guy walking a new project into the CEO’s office is going to be tossed out on his ass and lucky if he still has a job.
Might as well be the business development guy at Ford recommending funding a new diesel plant from the savings of paring back battery investment….
BRT/left,
Hard to argue. Even slow joe said drilling permits are there being unused. Companies just not investing.
US crude oil consumption: 20 million barrels per day
US crude oil domestic production: 11 million barrels per day
Keystone XL proposed capacity: 800,000 barrels per day
US crude oil imported from Russia, before invasion: 200,000 barrels per day (500K+ of all petroleum)
Everyone will make their own conclusions about the above numbers.
I believe the Republicans will be able to turn a lot of public sentiment against Biden for cancelling Keystone XL on literally Day 1 of his administration. Especially if gas stays above $4/gallon here in the US through to the midterms.
Here’s my unpopular opinion: the US should RAISE the gas tax right now to reduce consumption and raise new car fuel standards and tell the petro-states to shove it. Joe sixpack revolts, though, so it won’t happen.
I watch cable news while I eat breakfast and lunch. Pretty much never outside those timeframes.
The Ukranians that cable news puts on are always asking for the wrong ASK. Still asking for a no fly zone today. A no fly zone is never, never, never going to happen. To institute a no fly zone, US warplanes need to shoot Russian war planes. We shoot down a Russian war plane on purpose, they fire missles on our forward air bases in Eastern Europe, we bomb all their air bases, they respond with a nuke, we response with 100 nukes, they respond with 1,000 nukes, we respond with 2,000 nukes.
The Ukranians should be asking for all nations – especially the US and EU to ban all Russian imports – oil, metals, everything. Plus, weapons and humanitarian relief. That’s all they are going to get. Asking for a no fly zone is just wasting your breath.
Went to visit my Aunt in Riverdale, the Bronx on Saturday. 14 miles, bridge and Henry Hudson Pkwy toils, total cost $23.00!! But hey we are prestigious, that costs money!
There are two big pluses to living in CT. No tolls and no county govt/police. Tolls are completely abusive and shameful.
Sounds like a custard stand outside of a 55 & over community.
Juice Box says:
March 7, 2022 at 9:29 am
re: Senior Freeze
dude….. fantastic
BRT says:
March 7, 2022 at 11:08 am
From my Jan 1st predictions
Pumpkin rides ARKK down to$60 while talking smack the entire time
No new covid restrictions, because midterm elections are approaching.
Everyone on the board contracts Omicron, except me
90% of stocks retreat to their values prior to the pandemic.
Hey on that police couple getting off beating up a 73 year old woman, the 27 year old woman’s last name is Jalali, meaning “superiority” in Arabic. Are we sure we’re not dealing with a racial hate crime from an Arab supremacist?
All I know is that if the old woman was black and the police pale white, I’d have already been told by the media about every party’s race immediately.
Grim, Bystander, IT guys,
What do you know about Capacity Management positions?
On-demand cloud has made it more interesting, but ultimately, it’s boring IT procurement work.
Thanks Grim.
Senior Freeze made me laugh. Then I realized that I am less than four years away from getting the senior discount.
Speaking of fracking and pipelines and proactively planning. Buyer’s home inspector is coming back to my multi to scope my waste line. Is this a normal thing people are doing these days?
In other news, for the first time in my life, I drove over the local to express median on 78. Stupid Waze didn’t warn me, but a truck must have flipped where 78 local west becomes 24 west. As I saw the red taillights all lit ahead, my Waze suddenly added 30 minutes to my drive. I scrolled up and saw where the accident was and knew there were no exits between me and the accident site. I also mistakenly took both sets of car keys, so my older son, who I pick up from school on the way back from getting the D, would have been stuck at school. On the way home, I can tell the cars still haven’t moved one inch and now the express was backed up too because the road must have backed up all the way to the turnpike so people are crossing over to the express and it’s only two lanes (instead of 5). I get home a half hour later and I see the backup is up to 52 minutes. I love NJ.
BRT,
I didn’t get Covid either. Otherwise, pretty savvy work with the Ouija board.
Not sure on details Ed but different types of Capacity planning. Resource, system/network, supply chain. Grim is probably right though. Pretty boring admin work.
Consider Snooki as a metaphor for New Jersey and then watch this short clip:
youtube.com/watch?v=Lu37jaP9sXo
Bystander,
Thanks for the info.
What’s funny; everyone and their mother thought this was a cathie wood thing. Just her crappy companies going down due to rates. Nah, they were just the first to get smashed. Now the entire market is being taken out. The ego always gets bit.
Man, pulling out the 401k 100% was an amazing move at this point. Factor in compounding, god knows how much I saved. And I owe it all to ark. Really made me realize what was coming for the market. LIB too. His posts in December had me convinced it was only a matter of time before it gets body slammed. Thanks, Lib.
My OIH call for a short term trade absolutely nailed it today. Up 8% in a market that’s getting destroyed. I just don’t trust OIL when the chart is straight up. Sooner or later going to get slammed. Human nature…OPEC countries going to start cheating to make that money. Flood it!!
Lib, Waze is terrible now. When I’m driving down 206, it literally tells me to take a way that is 10 minutes longer. I start pulling side maneuvers and magically the ETA goes down 10 minutes.
Lib,
not sure how common here but buyer wanted to on a home i sold years ago. you want to be there when they do it and make sure company they use is reputable and insured in case they do any damage.
might make sense for you to require a hard copy of the report and digital footage if they record it in case your deal does not go through you can avoid going through the process should another buyer want to do same.
hope it works out for you.
People beginning to build a position. I think I’m going to start buying monthly again after I make my DNA purchase. Just want to see if DNA goes a little lower…if it his 3.75 will just throw in the towel and buy while I still can in the 3’s.
“$ARKK has now had four straight weeks of inflows for a total of $850m, making it the 22nd biggest flow-getter of the past month, and despite its price going down 17%.”
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1500860256880148483?s=21
SP500 down 12.8% from ATH on Jan. 4.
Putin hitting a wall.
Today’s set of negotiation demands far different than before – acknowledge Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Constitutionally ban joining nato and the eu.
No longer talking of surrender and replacing the President.
Grim
He lies.
BRT, I wonder if waze has “gone green” and now steers you toward a slower but lower estimated CO2 route. Sometimes google maps does that now. Seems like I have to disable that every time, because it comes back as the default setting, rather than fastest route.
This way woke young Google employees can feel good about themselves steering people onto slower routes to save the planet, and steering searches to “social justice” outcomes to create the world they want.
Thanks Nomad.
I bought an 80 year old house and am selling a 100 year old house. I am definitely going to need proof before I go out and spend 10-20K replacing that pipe. Will ask for recording and will witness for sure.
I think it’s more that they just keep trying to send you past paid advertisers. They even pop up on the waze. Hungry for a burger? I’m running around 206 through Duke’s Pkway West because the current construction bunches up pretty bad. You pass no shops on that route…yet they keep wanting me to stop at Burger King or Taco Bell.
“Today’s set of negotiation demands far different than before – acknowledge Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Constitutionally ban joining nato and the eu.”
Market movements are crazy…not referencing macro, but individual stocks/sectors…no direction whatsoever, major changes day-to-day…financials, commodities, spec tech….wheat is limit up six days in a row…lol.
The day this Putin settles is going to be face ripping…
A no-fly zone can be done.
It should be implemented.
US should dictate US policy, no one else.