Uh Oh Time Yet?

From Marketwatch:

‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

The popular spring home-buying season is just ramping up. But one analyst is warning that it could be a bust.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist and founder of research consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, is predicting a dramatic fall in the pace of home sales this year. In a research note, he projected that existing-home sales will drop roughly 25% from the annual pace of 6.02 million set in February to a rate of 4.5 million by the end of summer.

“The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift in activity, which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices, starting perhaps as soon as the spring,” Shepherdson wrote in a research note distributed Sunday.

As evidence of this expected slowdown in home sales, Shepherdson pointed to mortgage demand. The most recent data on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the number of applications for loans used to purchase homes is down more than 8% compared to a year ago. Comparatively, demand for refinancing has dropped nearly 50% versus last year.

A drop in mortgage demand could predict a downturn in home sales, since most buyers rely on financing to make sure a large purchase. Issues around affordability are likely to blame for the decline. As of Thursday, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 4% for the first time since May 2019, according to Freddie Mac FMCC, +2.96%.

Per Shepherdson’s calculations, the rise in mortgage rates since September has increased the cost of a monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home by more than $400, or 27%.

“That’s a huge increase, even for households sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic—a one-time increase in savings can’t finance an increase in mortgage payments for the next 30 years—and it will push demand down a good deal further,” he wrote.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

128 Responses to Uh Oh Time Yet?

  1. Chicago says:


  2. leftwing says:

    Fabs, it is great to have you around. You are the Babylon Bee, without the Twitter ban.

  3. Libturd says:

    Mortgage rates are shooting up.

    I just got my first notice that one of my credit card interest rates have increased. Of course, this does not effect me. But the 45.4% of Americans that due are suddenly going to be paying more. I hope those stimulus checks were worth it.

  4. Libturd says:

    I locked in a 1.9% late last year on a ten year refinance. Best you’ll find today is a 3.375%. Housing prices, go by by. Shortage, go by by. Cat food, go buy buy.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    I was looking at some houses this morning in the area. I see a few price drops and a slight uptick in inventory to the naked eye but the latter observation just might be the spring selling season. With the price of fuel, food, goods, etc., I can see the buckling start to occur. I think it’ll lag a bit until late summer and then you’ll see more aggressive price correction and a bit more inventory as the light bulbs go off in the muppet masses’ noggin.

  6. grim says:

    Yeah was looking at my mortgage statement, 2.25%, are we going to start talking about mortgage lock-in again? Does this spur renovation vs. buying up? Materials costs clearly a wildcard here.

  7. Libturd says:

    Want another sign Eddie? Pumps went into hiding. Probably the strongest indicator of all.

  8. leftwing says:

    JFC Lib, don’t Beetlejuice him.

  9. Libturd says:

    Material costs would normally drop with less demand for them, but oil prices may stay stubbornly high for a while. Especially if the West lets the Ukraine fall, which it will. I wonder what is the next Apple of Putin’s eye?

  10. BRT says:

    I locked in my 15 year mortgage near the lows ($225k remaining). I also have solar on my house where the price per kW*hr growth is fixed 1.9% a year for 20 years. Locking in those costs are going to be very important in the long run.

    Lib, update on the house behind me. I think there was a bidding war. It really is the worst house/property in the neighborhood. IMO, the purchase price of $540k 1.5 years ago was overkill. I think they accepted the offer on it in the $630k to $650k range. But something is holding up the final sale. I have a feeling, appraisal is going to be a tough one.

    Another house just went up for sale. It was flipped 2 years ago. Massive interest already. People driving up from MA and CT to see it.

  11. BRT says:

    lol, the bee got banned? They should just stick to predicting the future.

  12. Phoenix says:

    ‘I fled the Soviet Union when I was 12 for freedom in the US. Now I’m seeing socialism here’: Ukrainian-born NYC councilwoman reveals why she backs Trump and how she is terrified America is turning into Russia she experienced as a child.

    Of her time under the old Soviet Union, Vernikov said: ‘There was nothing ever in the stores. I actually remember the empty shelves’
    ‘I remember my grandparents heating up water on the gas just to take a shower,’ she added
    ‘What I started seeing all those years ago, it really disturbs me because I’ve started seeing the comeback to socialism here’

  13. Phoenix says:

    Putin attacks Ukraine, America seizes all Russian money, then America goes into financial distress while sending billions to Ukraine.

    Sounds about right.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Tucker Carlson right again. I never thought the truth would ever be spoken on Fox News.

    I stand corrected.


  15. Phoenix says:

    Being an ally of America is like having a friend who keeps starting fights whenever you go out to the pub.

  16. Phoenix says:

    “I wonder what is the next Apple of Putin’s eye?”

    Getting Germany to restart the pipelines. Both of them.

    And they probably will.

    It always comes down to money.

  17. Fast Eddie says:


    Every asset must revert to the mean, right? I think. :)

  18. leftwing says:

    Isn’t it customary that housing takes one last FOMO push on the first rate upticks?

    Lib, MAS?

    Also I’m eyeing next short write on /CL around 120 or so….

  19. Phoenix says:

    Weapons of mass destruction- sounds familiar, this time Democrat, last time Republican:

    Joe Biden said warnings out of Moscow that Ukraine is storing biological and chemical weapons is a ‘clear sign’ that Putin is thinking of using both in an attempt to restart his faltering war.

  20. leftwing says:

    Phoenix, the Carlson A Block is golden. Didn’t find it until a few months ago. Rational, common sense clear thinking most of the time. I usually turn it off after that as guests and dialogue can start to go off the rails.

  21. SmallGovConservative says:

    Old realtor says:
    March 21, 2022 at 1:36 pm
    “Regarding Putin and why invade Ukraine while Biden is in office…NATO. Trump wanted exactly what Putin wants, an end to NATO.”

    Sorry sir, your TDS is now terminal. You’re trying way too hard to try to pin SlowJoe’s latest failure on T. T’s wanting our allies to pay their fair share is not the same as T wanting an end to NATO. You know that, of course, but are too dishonest to admit it.

    Putin invaded Ukraine while Biden is in office because he knows that Biden is a feckless, incompetent, corrupt career politician who did nothing when, as a member of Oblama’s feckless and incompetent admin, he (Putin) re-established Syria as a Russian client-state and previously invaded Ukraine. Joe further helped facilitate this latest invasion by causing oil prices to soar, thereby plumping-up Vlad’s war chest, and by agreeing to waive sanctions on Nord Stream2, helping to cement western europe’s dependence on Russia. Vlad might not be happy with the way his military is performing, but you can be sure he has no regrets about his decision to not risk an invasion while T was in office, and instead wait to take advantage of the doddering old fool, SlowJoe.

  22. Grim says:

    Random observation – why do appraisals on refis seem so much more rigorous than sale appraisals?

  23. Phoenix says:

    I just watch it on You Tube.

    Just look for his newest.

    What he says makes sense to me. As someone who doesn’t believe in either “side” too much I like to watch what both have to say and rationalize what I hear.

    So, this guy is a Repub. On Fox.

    Not my usual cup of tea, but this I will drink. And enjoy.

    It’s beginning to be too late for America to save itself.

  24. Phoenix says:

    “Putin invaded Ukraine while Biden is in office because he knows that Biden is a feckless, incompetent, corrupt career politician”

    That Americans Voted For.

    Don’t ever lose sight of that. No matter how disturbing it looks, remember, this is what Americans wanted.

  25. Phoenix says:

    And don’t start WW3 tonight.

    I have a booty call at 7 pm.

    Have at it at 7:10pm when I am done.

    I appreciate your candor in this matter.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    Ten touched 237.5

  27. chicagofinance says:

    This move is a lot…… fast…. home buyers are going to be shocked….

    A 4 handle will shock them, but then when there is daylight between 4 and their lock, that will be sobering…..

  28. Bystander says:


    You in VT, NH, ME?

    Housing is still insane. Here is a good one. People paid $540k for this place only 4 years ago. Completely redone in 2017. Nicely updated interior but some weird elements like tacked on side entrance with strange 3 foot dormer above it. Looks out of place but ok. 1 car Garage was redone but unusable, too small to fit a car. The location is absolutely horrendous. Door facing the street on major busy double line road. It close to corner lot and basically at intersection on one of busiest roads in town. You could never leave kids outside period. The worst part? Your neighbor basically has a junkyard next door. Place listed for $600k in and sat for months before settling much lower at end of 2017. Listed last month for $700k and already under contract. See pic. House is top upper left with 44 on it. Sanford and sons next door. Bubble..bad bad bubble.


  29. Libturd says:

    “why do appraisals on refis seem so much more rigorous than sale appraisals?”

    That’s a very interesting observation. Perhaps because the refi, with blazing housing prices, represents more leverage? Or that in most cases, when someone refinances, it is to pay down another serious debt or unnecessary frivolous spending like green kitchen cabinets?

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If anything, it will be short term window to buy till the FED goes soft again next year. The problem, no one is going to sell. The only properties you will get are total POS/s and they will still want good money for it. Going to have to work hard to find the good deals and put the offers in before the other vultures come in. That’s why I don’t see prices dropping much for the avg real buyers.

    Libturd says:
    March 22, 2022 at 8:26 am
    Mortgage rates are shooting up.

    I just got my first notice that one of my credit card interest rates have increased. Of course, this does not effect me. But the 45.4% of Americans that due are suddenly going to be paying more. I hope those stimulus checks were worth it.

  31. Libturd says:


    I am now 45/55 (45 index ETFs and 55 stable) in my IRAs. Haven’t made the move back in in my 401K yet. We are at a particular tough juncture here. I expect a pretty big recession due to curtailed spending due to inflation. This would most likely send the markets lower. But the drop in spending could be so significant, that inflation is halted in it’s tracks. Will be interesting to see what Powell does in May when it is known we are in a recession, but he MUST raise interest rates by 1/2 a point. Most recessions would have him lowering them. None-the-less, sharing with you how this janitor is positioning himself. 50/50 may be the best position for a while.

  32. Bystander says:

    Oh JFC, did someone say his name three times? Dow powering up to 35K again due to Biden’s strong and resilient economy. Glad I did not pull all out.

  33. Fabius Maximus says:


    In the words of Principal Skinner ….

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    DNA being short squeezed on the regular now. My bro-in-law was able to get some at 2.66. I waited to see if it would go lower and missed. Hope this stock ends up being a big winner. Long-term. Been focusing all my buys on this past month and will continue till it goes over 5. Then will re-evaluate on what to do.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I’m still out, so tough to get a feel on the movement right now. Going to see if lows get tested again, hope I don’t get screwed with the market being irrational.

    Libturd says:
    March 22, 2022 at 10:20 am

    I am now 45/55 (45 index ETFs and 55 stable) in my IRAs. Haven’t made the move back in in my 401K yet. We are at a particular tough juncture here. I expect a pretty big recession due to curtailed spending due to inflation. This would most likely send the markets lower. But the drop in spending could be so significant, that inflation is halted in it’s tracks. Will be interesting to see what Powell does in May when it is known we are in a recession, but he MUST raise interest rates by 1/2 a point. Most recessions would have him lowering them. None-the-less, sharing with you how this janitor is positioning himself. 50/50 may be the best position for a while.

  36. leftwing says:

    “So, this guy is a Repub. On Fox.”

    not so sure…I suspect he is as ‘Republican’ as I am which is to say not much except the usual alternative is just so much more horrendous….it’s funny watching that opening block on TC, he regular absolutely flames McConnell, Graham, etc. He had some Latina R-FL congresswoman on who he had criticized the prior day so gave her the mic and they went at it. Unlike the Left media outlets for sure, and other Fox hosts, I don’t see any sacred cows with him. Which is why i like him.

    ATEOTD though he is in media so after that first commercial break the guests and dialogue can get funky….

  37. No One says:

    Here Phoenix, here’s a video that ends with “no hope”

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    F’ing joke. This what happens with a tight labor market…lower the standards. This labor market is going to hurt our economy if it keeps up. If you can’t pass the assessment to teach, you should not be teaching!

    Now imagine what is happening to businesses. You don’t think they are lowering their standards? You don’t think they are now accepting of a half-ass worker? They have no choice. Price will be paid down the road.

    “Earlier this month, the NJEA joined eight other organizations asking the state to remove the edTPA. The state Senate is currently considering a bill to no longer require passing the assessment to get certified. As part of the assessment, candidates turn in a portfolio of work, lesson plans, student work samples, a video recording and written responses to “subject-specific prompts.”

    The Senate Education Committee last week voted unanimously to advance the bill (S896) — which supporters say will help districts hire more teachers.”


  39. 3b says:

    I am shocked, a few up days in the market, and some people are saying everyone back in the water, and the Fed is going to rescue the markets again.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And yes….3b…businesses are sacrificing their business model to make workers happy by letting them WFH or with hybrid schedule in order to keep the worker. You think this is good for the business down the line? Wake up.

  41. Fabius Maximus says:

    A nice synopsis on a lot of people.


    Here is Tucker.
    Tucker Carlson so effusively disseminates Kremlin propaganda that he is a staple of Russian state TV. As Julia Davis often reports, the Russians just broadcast clips of the show with subtitles, no editing required. He stated early on that he was on Putin’s side in this conflict. And he has not backed down, even when called out on his pro-Putin stance.
    This should not be a surprise. Tucker went to Hungary and fluffed the Moscow-aligned dictator, Viktor Orbán, who was formerly a bag man for Mogilevich. This was after two years of disseminating disinformation about Covid, exacerbating the pandemic.

    I don’t know why Tucker Carlson is doing this, if he’s being bribed or blackmailed or if he just genuinely admires evil, murderous psychopaths. But at this point, there’s little question that he’s a traitor—however much he or his Epstein-buddy pals dislike the term applied to him.

  42. 3b says:

    Pumps: Yeah, you would know with all your business experience. You post on this blog most days, all day, and collect a paycheck and a pension. What a racket!

  43. No One says:

    Carlson is sometimes extremely right about topics, and sometimes very wrong. Pretty good about pointing out leftist hypocrisies. Obsessed with the Mexican border. Really dislikes many of the pro-immigration reform Republicans (where I don’t agree with him). One of the few people who have been outspoken about the racism of “anti-racism” as taught by CRT folks. One of the few to point out that civil liberties cannot survive constant “emergency powers”. One of the few to point out how terrible the Cuomo administration was on a number of things while most media was swooning over him. His favorite politician is J.D.Vance who I suspect is a friend of his. I liked Vance’s book but I haven’t been a fan of him as a politician so far, too Trumpy populist. Carlson is also a big fan of regulating or breaking up big internet companies because of his criticisms of their “soft” censorship. I hope there’s a way for the market to take down the power of youtube/facebook/twitter in their information-shaping schemes, because once government starts going after and regulating media, the government will make an even worse mockery of free speech.
    Carlson mostly avoids directly speaking about Trump, but doesn’t mind having some of Trumps fans on. But nothing like the Trump shill Sean Hannity is. It’s mostly that Carlson never attacked Trump on his show when there were so many opportunities to criticize.

  44. leftwing says:

    Fed definitely not going to bail anyone out this time….IDK, I’ll just keep shooting the low and slow birds when they clear the tree line….can’t see how this ends well for the broad market….the only alleyway I may see is if the Fed actually lets inflation run hotter than everyone thinks they should and you might get a return in names that are relatively insulated from it, WMT, MSFT….I look at those names though and they’re at forward P/Es of 22 and 32….with PEGs of 2.6 and 3.9….I mean, wtf…..

  45. leftwing says:

    “A nice synopsis on a lot of people.”

    You are a caricature, and I say that with consideration for the laugh and smile you put on my face regularly, Babylon…

    Have you ever watched Carlson’s A block? The guy goes out of his way to condemn Putin. Every day of this conflict.

    He plays in Russia because he is one of few major media personalities calling out on a major network the massive failings of the current Admin.

    Which drives the Left crazy, as they literally try to shut his show down (yeah, go USA). That the Left literally wants him off the air tells me everything I need to know about him, he’s hitting a factual, exposed nerve.

  46. No One says:

    Carlson is not pro Putin or pro Russia that I’ve seen, though in contrast with many commentators he’s much more like the Republican isolationists of the 1930s, which makes him seem so. He definitely hates the Neocons and the world-savers. He does ask a valid question – are you willing to let how many US citizens die for the Ukraine?
    I think it’s good that some in the media come in skeptical of putting too many lives or resources into what is officially someone else’s fight.

    All the UN lovers out there – here’s the UN’s big chance to be relevant. If it cannot serve a purpose here, why not just shut it down as a pointless waste of money?

  47. No One says:

    Have any republicans been calling for Rachel Maddow, Don Lemon, etc to be taken off the air? Even though they spread fake news and baseless conspiracies, I haven’t seen them do that. In fact, by rebroadcasting their ridiculous stuff for laughs, they probably boost their name recognition.

  48. Bystander says:

    Wow, you guys watch Tucker, Rachel and other TV alarmists. There is the problem, not censorship.

    And I don’t know what you expect
    Staring into the TV set
    Fightin’ fire with fire, ah

    Finally saw Utopia this weekend. Byrne is amazing artist, visually and musically. Not recommended for right as he preaches about being son of immigrant and climate change. Ahh the horror.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well, we now know why ARK funds were getting huge inflows. Smart money. ARK funds had their best week ever last week. Not saying this will hold, but I knew it, it was smart money buying in. It was so oversold, it was like taking money from a baby.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When the cycle changes, ARK going to kill it again. No doubt in my mind. It was my thesis for the buying the past year. If you are playing it long-term, you are DCA into stupid cheap pricing long-term. You can run for the hills, or be smart, and develop a position when the gloom and hate is real.

  51. Libturd says:

    I can’t stand any of these political pontificators and don’t really get how so many people can. Then again, I was flipping through the channels last night and I saw there is a new show called “America’s Next Single or Best Song (or something like that)?” It was being hosted by a Kelly Clarkson, who must be pushing 350 these days and Snoop Dog, who hasn’t released a relevant hit since I was in Summer camp. Regardless, after talking about a new band or artist for about 30 minutes, they go on stage and lip sync/air guitar one original song. I stayed through the Minnesota band that was trying to be a boy band, only they could barely sing and most were horrific looking. I turned it off and watched a Kim’s Convenience before flipping back and watched a singer from Wisconsin who thought he was Elvis, but his song could not have been worse. He claimed his style was “Nuvo retro.” It sounded more like vomit.

    I am beginning to see the attraction of Maddow and Tucker.

  52. Bystander says:

    I would rather watch a movie from South Korea, a TV show from somewhere else in the world, catch-up on jazz, fusion or rock albums from 60s-90s or watch comedy special from someone I never heard of. You will never get me to read current NY times best sellers or books by TV personalities or politicians. I have nearly zero interest in current pop culture. Always have. I would rather go-back and find something that stood test of time, preferably people who lived hard lives, had talent and perspective then croaked.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Landlords will win. A bunch of people trying to become homeowners will now be adding to the competition to rent.

    Cash investors will be looking to buy with less competition to make yield off these renters.

    “Called a loan officer this morning to ask about their current rates. He said they are quoting 4.75% for well qualified borrowers with 20% down.”


  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Get ready for rent to go up! This is why you own and don’t rent.

  55. Hold my beer says:


    If you like dark mysteries watch Beyond Evil on Netflix. It’s Korean. Slow moving intricate plot about a serial killer and corruption in a small town. Everyone is a suspect or corrupt.

  56. Bystander says:

    Thanks Hold. Right up my alley. I just watched Burning last week and still in my mind. It was modern, Korean version of Rashomon or something. Not really putting it in that pantheon but similar uneasy feeling of truth, perception, justice (?).

  57. Crushednjmillenial says:

    Inflation might be bullish for equities prices. Nominal earnings, nominal share price. Real returns might not be bullish, though.

    Housing prices – US national home starts and completed new housing units is around 1.7M units/year seasonally adjusted. 1.5M is a market in equilibrium. We have been under 1.5M for most of the time period since 2008. Nonetheless, home builders are overcoming materials delays and high prices to deliver what the market is asking for. I don’t know what direction the housing market takes, but the new housing supply tempers how long we see the insane bidding wars, even if price increases continue to outpace inflation or historical averages.

  58. Fast Eddie says:


    It’s no mystery that today’s music is beyond horrible. Even my kid, who saw Lynyrd Skynyrd by random and spontaneous chance last summer in Cape May said Boomer music is far better than anything else currently out there.

  59. 3b says:

    Fast: My kids say the same, and I hear that from a lot of young people today. I don’t know who is listening/buying today s music.

  60. Libturd says:

    I like some of the EDM and this is really the only area (in my opinion) where artists are experimenting and improving. Hip hop has entered the dark ages. Trip hop is great, but not enough is coming out, and many would classify it as EDM. It’s kind of a mix of the two genres. Good old rock and roll is pretty much in the toilet too. Occasionally, a good acoustic ballot or two leaks out from a solo artist. That’s about it. Very sad. There are a lot of good Blues artists still putting out very agreeable stuff. Shame, as a genre, it gets so little play. It seems to be where Rhythm and Soul has migrated to.

    College music/alternative is pretty dead now too.

    I actually like some of the Billie Eilish stuff. Don’t shoot me.

  61. Libturd says:

    Someone needs to give Cardie B the Tupac treatment.

    Absolutely the worst artist out there.

  62. Libturd says:


    She writes her stuff (with her brother). How novel.

  63. Bystander says:


    There are great, great young musicians out there today, like Marcus King and Billy Strings. You have to look much harder. Rock is basically a dead genre. It has given way to pop rap, pop country and pop rap-country. I do worry that we have lost a whole generation of music progression due to death of albums/music industry. Blues spawned rock and roll, jazz spawned fusion, metal and punk rebelled against psychedelic rock and jazz, disco killed fusion, new wave brought punk and fusion together, grunge brought metal, punk and rock together. Now?? Nothing musically interesting, perhaps some of bluegrass/Americana revival like Mumford and Sons, Lumineers etc but that is a decade ago too.

  64. Libturd says:


    The boys mostly listen to the trash hip hop. Post Malone, Travis Scott, Drake, Doja Cat, Lil’ this and that.

    It’s all really, really bad. It’s so bad, that I am working on a few songs of my own just to show my kid how bad it is.

  65. Libturd says:

    Oh that rap-country is horrible, but sadly the mashup was just waiting to happen. The lyrics in both are pretty much interchangeable.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Investors now buy 33% of all the homes in the country.
    We define an investment to include any property where the property tax bill is sent to another address.
    I will post the % that are large vs small investors at this same time tomorrow.


  67. BRT says:


    You in VT, NH, ME?

    I wish…Mercer County. Why people are looking to move from New England to Mercer County is beyond me.

  68. Boomer Remover says:

    I’ve not shared a single musical recommendation in the thirteen years on this blog. My wife and I also have a soft spot for electronic, and we think Parra for Cuva absolute genius.

    The songs produced by Nicolas Demuth combine elements of house and pop music, piano compositions and downtempo. Many of his electronic pieces find their origin in piano music through sketches or with the help of complete solo pieces. Next to the piano many other instruments such as a kalimba, steeldrums, carillons, guitars and accordions can be found in Demuth’s productions.

  69. Fabius Maximus says:


    The last time I watched Tucker was when Jon Stewart cut him off at the knees on Crossfire. I barely watch TV these days and when its on, its sports, movies or “How its Made”

    Phoenix, watch this piece by John Oliver. While people may not like Olivers views or his delivery he does a good job breaking down how Tucker operates.

  70. BRT says:

    The hip hop has been pure garbage since about 2004. They all have that same crappy drum machine beat. Nothing will ever compare to the 90s DJ’s taking some jazz, motown, or 70s funk records, running some samples on the turntable and looping them into a beat.

  71. 3b says:

    Bystander/ Lib: rap country is absolutely horrible. My wife is a big country music fan, and always has been her Dad was as well. She hates the rap country crap as well . She does not fall into the typical stereotype of a country music fan, she is anything but.

    I like some of the older country stuff, but would not consider myself a fan. I know there are some good ones out there today and have gone to many concerts with my wife as I do enjoy good music regardless of the genre.

    I have to say I’m going to these concerts I have seen people from all walks of life and all ages and races, which was surprising. None of the concerts were what I stereotypically would have expected. No confederate flags etc You do see some daisy dukes dressed middle aged women, not a good look. I listen to all the old rock I grew up with and punk, and Celtic rock/punk a sub genre. The Euro dance techno music is catchy, not a fan but it’s catchy, some old rock a billy and blues works as well.

  72. OC1 says:

    As a boomer myself, I can tell you there was PLENTY of crappy music in the 70’s and 80’s. Barry Manilow, Captain and Tenille, Starland Vocal Band. A zillion hair bands playing crappy metal.

    But the crappy stuff from every era gets forgotten, and the next generation hears only the good stuff.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oil is dead, any questions?

    “Koch In­dus­tries Inc., the en­ergy-based con­glom­er­ate whose CEO long op­posed en­vi­ron­men­tal reg­u­la­tion and funded groups that ques­tioned cli­mate change, has emerged as one of the big­gest fi­nan­cial back­ers of the bat­tery in­dus­try.”


  74. 3b says:

    Oc 1 Of course there was crappy stuff from that era , I remember it well, but there was so much great stuff too which far outweighed the crappy stuff in my view. If there is good stuff out there today it’s hard to find and have opportunities/ concerts to hear the music. Mellencamp is still writing some good stuff but unless you look for it or concert you won’t hear it.

  75. Anon says:

    Leftwing: thoughts on ACM as a near- to mid-term short?

    I’m guessing part of its run up was due to being a Build Back Better play, but a PE of 55 is pretty frothy for this type of company – particularly in an inflationary environment with tightening credit.

  76. BRT says:

    3b, I agree. There is a ton of great music in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s. Even in the early 2000s, there was some great music. But it fell into the abyss quickly.

    The downfall of hip hop was the sampling issue and autotune. It was cheaper to buy a keyboard from guitar center and press a few buttons than to sample real music. Rappers could never really sing, but autotune allowed them to pretend to. It just turned into mindless dribble…so bad that I saw a video clip of Snoop, 50 cent, and a few others making fun of all the rappers today.

  77. OC1 says:

    The best music is always whatever you were listening to when you were 21.

  78. No One says:

    Rachmaninoff’s solo piano works are what I like to listen to while working.
    Also his first two symphonies. Tchaikovsky symphonies as well. Chopin and Liszt.
    I also like the King Crimson and Yes albums of the 1960s and 1970s.
    I’ve got Amazon Prime Music HD and listen through a DAC/headphone amp into Sennheiser HD800 headphones at my home office, but used closed-back headphones at my office office.

  79. 3b says:

    Oc1 It’s obvious you are not a real music fan. As previously noted a lot of young people are listening to the music the boomers and gen x grew up with. That says a lot in my mind.

  80. grim says:

    Have a pair of Stax Lambda headphones that are incredible for classical and vocal-dominant music. Electrostats are wonderful, as long as you are comfortable with around 1000 volts on either side of your brain. The bass isn’t really weighty enough (on my pair) for modern music, outside of folk/acoustic – even some classic rock is a stretch. It’s got the dynamic range to keep up, but it’s always “missing” something. They are still magic though, especially female vocals.

    My next go to are a pair of Etymotic ER6s. That’s like a signal wire direct to your brain. Though they really aren’t super comfortable, and I don’t always care for the noise isolation of the earplug if I’m just at home.

  81. OC1 says:


    I used to be (back in the dark ages of vinyl).

    Nowadays I just listen to whatever Pandora tells me to. ;)

  82. Grim says:

    Neutral Milk Hotel – Holland, 1945 – good tune to catch up on a Ukraine news to.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Of course, you always have the previous generations that think their era of music was the best. People change, as does the music they enjoy.

    Some of the rap today is good. Rock is still going. Problem is, there are so many avenues for music that you don’t get to hear them all anymore. I heard that 40,000 new songs come out on spotify on a daily basis. It’s not like back in the day, where you were limited with content. Now, it’s impossible to listen to it all. Plus, radio doesn’t have as much impact as it once did, just like MTV in the 80s. Whatever they pushed, was what you listened to. Remember having to hit record when a good song that I liked came on the radio. Way different times today.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That whole recent new wave movement combining punk and rap is really good. It’s this generations emo music. Too bad so many of the artists passed before their time. Guys like LiL Peep and Juice WRLD. BTW, you guys will hate it.

  85. grim says:

    Loved the Judgement Night album – probably the greatest hip pop/rap fusion album ever, and certainly the first in a long line.

  86. Libturd says:

    I made the same 25% move in my 401K. Now 45long/65stable across the board.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Our Bay Area expert said housing in central locations is still thriving despite WFH and out migration trends.

    One builder did a starting bid at their close-in community of $1.9M and ending up selling the homes for $2.5M


  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Housing update from our local experts
    FL: 8th inning for price but still strong
    SE: Still value but caution
    NE: Strong, starting to peak
    MW: Hot for the Midwest
    Texas: Undersupplied on every front
    Mtn: Solid
    SCal: Bifurcated and hot
    NCal: Crazy
    PNW: High prices, tight supply


  89. Libturd says:

    55. Ooops.

  90. Libturd says:

    Captain and Tenille – Don’t remind me.

    I am truly a fan of everything. Country, classical, jazz, blues, rap, techno. What I am not a fan of is listening to the same song over and over again. I don’t even like to drive the same route two times in a row. Life is too short to repeat the same things.

    When I first went to Hawaii, I happened upon an amazing public radio station. KKCR. Besides Hawaiian music, which is very easy on the ears when you are focusing on work and they play an absolutely amazing mix of music. I still stream it on occasion.

    Boomer, Para for Cuva is easy listening too. Though I’ll put it on in the background while I’m working, I kind of liken it to what Kitaro was doing in the 80s and 90s. Really decent grooves, but not HARD enough for me to love. I prefer more of the DJ Slim, Moby, Prodigy style techno from the past or the new EDM today like Skrillex, Testo, Marshmello, etc.

    Grim, I was managing WMSC when Judgement Night soundtrack came in. It was a scary good album. Ever listen to Lords of the Underground?

  91. grim says:

    Average Jersey City property tax hike is $1,600 as a result of school funding changes, holy shit.

  92. grim says:

    Love the Ka’au Crater Boys. Know of Lords of the Underground, I know I’ve heard them, not something that’s in regular rotation. They were Jersey boys. Kitaro – hah, I still have some CDs around here.

  93. grim says:

    Yeah for sure, I know the Here Comes the Lords album.

  94. leftwing says:

    “It’s all really, really bad. It’s so bad, that I am working on a few songs of my own…”

    Speaking in the last thread of old postings, I seem to remember…..

    “Left, The last time I watched Tucker was when Jon Stewart cut him off at the knees on Crossfire. I barely watch TV…”

    So you literally post a piece from substack containing about 52 separate shrill, easily demonstrably false, left wing talking point accusations with self admittedly zero knowledge or even interest in the underlying facts and tie the accusations into many here. Well done, typical of liberal diligence and analysis. You and Dumpy separated at birth? He can give you some college students interning as bellboys on twitter to support your points if you need more help….

  95. 3b says:

    Just saw a back on the market listing, after going UC in early March, sellers are looking to get 100k more than they paid for 18 months ago. But hey perfectly normal, no bubble.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is the dumbest sh!t I’ve heard in a while. Market is irrational. Why did it fall in January…what is different today? Bonkers…

    “Why the stock market isn’t ‘getting smoked’ even as Federal Reserve signals it’s ready to supersize interest rate hikes”

    “The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.5%, while the also tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP rose 1.6%. Technology and growth stocks are seen as the most sensitive to rising Treasury yields, which lessens the present value of their future earnings and cash flow and which is used to justify their high stock prices. The Nasdaq, however, already slumped into a bear market earlier this month, falling more than 20% from its November record close.
    However, stocks have bounced significantly since the Fed last week kicked off the rate-hike cycle with a 25 basis point increase to the fed-funds rate and signaled substantial monetary tightening is yet to come. Stock indexes are now also trading above levels seen ahead of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was up around 205 points, or 0.6% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 SPX gained 0.8%, with the large-cap index trading at its highest since Feb. 11.
    It’s important to remember the S&P 500 index had pulled back nearly 15% through the Feb. 24 low, which means “a lot of bad news was priced in,” and which means the risk/reward outlook has improved since the beginning of 2022, said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors. in a note.”


  97. Libturd says:

    Here come the Lords is the most underrated rap album of all time. The Judgement Night mention made me think of them since they have a similar sound.


  98. Yo! says:

    Performance figures in for 2021 at arguably New Jersey’s most valuable real estate property.

    Garden State Plaza’s annual revenue from 2004 to 2021, in millions.

    2021 $116.1
    2020 $126.5
    2019 $136.1
    2018 $140.7
    2017 $145.3
    2016 $139.0
    2015 $136.4
    2014 $128.8
    2013 $126.7
    2012 $121.5
    2011 $118.1
    2010 $112.0
    2009 $109.7
    2008 $106.8
    2007 $98.8
    2006 $91.9
    2005 $87.3
    2004 $83.5

    Interesting to see revenue growing straight through the global financial crisis. Then peaking in 2017, despite a strong economy. The owners will blame Covid, but the revenue decline started years ahead of the pandemic.

  99. leftwing says:

    Re: ACM, no advice, all disclaimers….

    I don’t see a 55 p/e…I’m showing FY22 EPS of 3.40 for a forward p/e of about 23 and EBITDA of $900m for 13.6x multiple….not cheap but not nosebleed territory.

    Charts, it was trying to break an uptrend in place since covid, she did late last year and early this year but got back on board the last week or so including busting through some resistance around 78…albeit just for the last few days but on some strong daily volume. Would like to see if that holds or not. The moving averages just turned favorable (EMA 8/21 is cleaner than SMA). Other momentum and vol stuff I watch aren’t flashing red, although there was some pullback on shorter term measures over the last couple days I’m not thrilled with, but not near the ambulance siren of later Friday afternoon (the 11th) in this stock. Bottom line on charts, nothing screaming at me either way, getting an unclear signal, given the recent gymnastics around trend and a nascent and uncertain breakout.

    Anecdotally, was out to dinner last week with a friend who works at a competitor, did one of the major projects over water many of you may use on occasion…he tells me they can’t hire enough…the backlog of business is high, and deep…any one of many projects coming online he could manage would take him into the grave. Also, the companies are clamping down on expenses (ex comp), which is consistent with some margin improvement at ACM. Other than that anecdote no opinion on the business.

    Summary, I look for situations where the valuation, charts, and fundamentals are all screaming the same thing at me….don’t see that here necessarily and in any case there are probably easier targets…

    It may very well go down, if you’ve done your diligence and have conviction hit it, don’t let me hold you back at all…do check the valuation though.

  100. Bystander says:

    I start with premise that rap is poetry and not music. I then decide I don’t like listening to people recite poetry. Sometime I am surprised by the musicianship in rap albums but more often than not, I think my premise works. Prove me wrong. I would rather listen to In Sound From Way Out by Beastie Boys than Paul’s Boutique, though I truly respect their musicianship and soundscapes.

  101. RentL0rd says:

    I was looking for my mortgage statement. Still looking. Can’t find it. I forget how long ago I bought a modest home and paid it all down.

    My accountant told me not to pay it all.. but there’s nothing like not worrying about debt.

  102. Fabius Maximus says:

    ” with self admittedly zero knowledge or even interest in the underlying facts”

    And where exactly do you get that from? Just because I dont suck at the teet of Fox or the sch0lng of Joe Rogan?

    ” 52 separate shrill, easily demonstrably false, left wing talking point accusations”
    If they are easily demonstrably false, lets hear them, away you go!

  103. leftwing says:

    “And where exactly do you get that from? Just because I dont suck at the teet of Fox…”

    No, because you cut and paste substack garbage without even a passing glance at whether it was accurate while bragging that you never look at the underlying material you criticize.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    There’s broadly two opinions out there on inflation:

    1) Inflation is “transient-ish” and will wane the back half of this year and be back to 2% target early next year

    2) De-globalization will drive sustained high inflation over the coming 3-5+ years

    What do I think?


  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Was anyone a fan of late 90s/early 2000s screamo scene? Used to love the local nj band …senses fail.

  106. Hold my beer says:


    The only local nj band name I can remember seeing was The Nerds.

    I did see Clarence Clemons at a place in sea bright and Springsteen came out and did some songs.

  107. Ex says:

    A paid off home in NJ is great! But you will forever pay rent to the State. Usually upwards of a grand a month. No thank you.

  108. Ex says:

    Friend of mine is incredibly successful in the music biz. He writes for some popular shows and drives a Lambo. I sincerely cannot listen to a note of what he writes. It’s some kind of Hip Hop — I dunno. My heart is stuck in 1972 music -wise.

  109. Fabius Maximus says:

    So are you saying that I cant criticize Tucker because I don’t watch his show.?Think carefully on that as you are about to Sideshow Bob yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRq1Ksh-32g

    That said, what I posted about Tucker above what are you telling me is “easily demonstrably false”. Last I looked he had said what he said and met who he met.

    And for the rest of the 52 separate, if its “easily demonstrably false” lets have it!

  110. Yo! says:


    This guy is paying Montclair $4,500 a month. Appealed and case was tried in NJ tax court. He lost – court smacked down his appraiser’s work as not credible compared to Montclair’s appraiser.

  111. leftwing says:

    Dude, I’m not doing your homework for you on the freakshows you read.

    It’s on you, this guy just posts unsubstantiated drivel.

    Unless you actually believe the five US Senators that went over in 2018 are a ‘Russian sleeper cell’……

    Like I said your entertainment value is high….keep it there. Or you show me that what he said – unsubstantiated – is true and we’ll actually have a debate.

  112. Fabius Maximus says:

    On a happier note, my overachieving Freshman brought home her first Varsity Letter yesterday in winter sports. She also heard that she qualified for a non-athletic team next year that will get her another letter next year. So she is on track to match her mothers 7 letters.

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, someone that gets it. Said it for years..

    “Daryl Fairweather is the chief economist at Redfin, a nationwide real estate brokerage firm that pulls together real-time statistics on both the sales and rental markets. For example, their numbers show that rents increased 31% in Jacksonville last year, 40% in Austin, Texas.

    Lesley Stahl: What’s causing this?

    Daryl Fairweather: We are not building enough housing for everybody who needs a place to live. We built fewer homes in the 2010s than in any decade going back to the 1960s, and at the same time millennials are the biggest generation and they’re entering into home-buying age. Millennials aren’t living in their parents’ basement any more or shacking up with roommates, they want a place of their own, and we didn’t build any housing for them in the last decade because we are still so traumatized by the last housing crisis. We didn’t put any investment into housing.”

  114. 3b says:

    Hold: The Nerds are very good, and still playing. We are going to see them
    Next Saturday.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:


    They were from Ridgewood and blew the f up in that scene.


  116. 3b says:

    Another bizarre speech by Harris today, this time in Louisiana. And another top adviser has left her team, this one an expert in foreign affairs; ten of her staff have resigned since June of last year.

  117. Fabius Maximuss says:

    “five US Senators that went over in 2018 are a ‘Russian sleeper cell”

    I think you mean the 8 senators that went over in 2018 are getting referred to as a “Fifth Column” Not sure if you got just confused, are smoking an Ex Special or just Day Drinking but we’ll go with it

    So when Podestas Emails were hacked I said in here the GOP were hacked as well, Russia just decided to publish Podestas.

    So how many of those senators Chief of Staffs said to their boss, “You know what July 4th, Instead of the State Fair where you can kiss babies and smooze wit the electorate, go to Moscow as show them you are engaging with the enemy!. They’ll love you for it not. ‘
    Vlad called them and stood them up to show whose their Daddy!

  118. Phoenix says:


    As far as Carlson, the stuff I post is what I agree with. I’ve never bothered to really look into the guy, but I will keep an eye on him, his latest stuff is interesting. Oliver has some good points as well.

    4500/mo. Ouch. Hope it’s a nice place.

    Today was a great day all around, even the weather. Time to relax and prepare for tomorrow.

  119. Hold my beer says:


    I didn’t know The Nerds were still around. I saw them many times at shore bars

  120. Hold my beer says:


    I don’t remember senses fail. I liked the guitar in that song.

  121. Anon says:

    Leftwing – Thanks for your analysis on ACM. Appreciate that it doesn’t fit your profile.

  122. Libturd says:

    Big NJ cover bands were the Nerds, Who Bought the Dog and Voices. At one point WBTD and Voices combined to be Dog Voices. They all pretty much play(ed) a circuit of Nyack, Belmar, Nardi’s and Joe Pops on LBI, Jenkinson’s and the Pony.

  123. 3b says:

    Hold: They are still around, and still excellent. They stay closer to home now then they did in the past from what I have been told.

  124. Chicago says:

    My freshman son already has his varsity jacket. He is going to end up with 12 letters.
    Because of honors grade inflation, his GPA is over a 5.0. You should shut your trap you sawed off leprechaun penis.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 22, 2022 at 8:28 pm
    On a happier note, my overachieving Freshman brought home her first Varsity Letter yesterday in winter sports. She also heard that she qualified for a non-athletic team next year that will get her another letter next year. So she is on track to match her mothers 7 letters

  125. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Global bond losses now worst on record from an all time high:


    “This is now the worst drawdown on record for global bond markets”

    This is a global credit crisis in broad daylight and markets are not even RISK OFF yet.”

  126. Libturd says:

    Yes. That’s another crazy headwind.

    I suppose it all doesn’t matter when the FED can just keep printing to infinity. Debt is good.

  127. Ex says:

    10:06 are you two ex-lovers…? Did you man the same desk in Brussels and swindle one another out of a bonus….wut…? Gibs!?!

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