From CBS News:
Federal Reserve issues warning over “brewing U.S. housing bubble”
Homebuyers have faced a tough choice during the pandemic: Swallow rapid price increases and forgo typical steps like house inspections, or risk getting left out of the real estate market. Those dynamics have caused some observers to question whether the U.S. is repeating the housing bubble of the early 2000s, which led to a painful housing crash in 2006 and the Great Recession the following year.
The answer, warns the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is that the property market is showing “signs of a brewing U.S. housing bubble.”
That may be unsettling to millions of potential homebuyers who are coping with myriad financial pressure points. For one, mortgage rates are swiftly rising, reaching an average of 4.67% for a fixed 30-year loan for the week ended March 31 — the highest since 2018, according to Freddie Mac. And the national median listing price for a home has jumped to a record $405,000, Realtor.com said on March 31.
…
First, the economists looked at a statistical model that tracks “exuberance,” or when prices increase at an exponential rate that can’t be justified by economic fundamentals. When their exuberance measure reaches a 95% threshold, that signals 95% confidence that the market is experiencing “abnormal explosive behavior,” they noted.
The current exuberance measure: 115%.
Next, the economists looked at another measure of valuation: Comparing home prices against the sum of discounted future rents. It’s a similar concept to how investors determine the value of a stock by looking at discounted future dividends, the economists noted.
That, too, is showing exuberance that is “comparable to the run-up of the last housing boom,” they said.
Third, the analysts examined the ratio of home prices to disposable income, another measure of housing affordability. This hasn’t risen to the level of exuberance, but the economists noted that household disposable income was buoyed during the pandemic by stimulus checks as well as a decrease in household spending due to lockdowns — transitory factors, in other words.
Good Morning New Jersey
Good morning Mike
End of 2nd, we are beating the Arizona Sun Devils 4-2 in the quarterfinal. If we win, on to Pittsburgh, in the final four. Boys better not look too far ahead.
As per Bloomberg article 49 percent of NYC office workers plan to work only half the time in the office and office occupancy rate is only 36 percent right behind San Francisco for lowest occupancy rate. NYC office workers also expect to spend over $6,000 less per worker on a yearly basis forcing the city to adapt accordingly.
Those who don’t work in corporate America who hate WFH as it may impact them negatively personally, should upgrade their skills or perhaps get a part time job to supplement their income, rather then demanding everyone get back to the office.
Pulled it out 6-3
On to Pittsburgh in the Final 4.
Nice to see the new supposedly reasonable Mayor has a plan in place for NYC to battle covid. It consists of keeping masks 2 years olds in daycare…and nothing else.
Good luck Lib
Thanks. This Pittsburgh team is ranked 5th. It’s officially a Cinderella story. We came in at 13th. Rare for a 13th to make the final 4.
BRT: Adams has cleaned up 25o homeless encampments so far and will be doing more starting next week. He is now being accused of Guilani tactics by his critics. You can’t win.
Besides the point. What is it with letting every other aspect of society go on normal but you still force 2 & 3 year olds to keep up the charade? He’s still an a**hole.
Wooooooooooo!!!
Somehow up 4-2 end of 2nd period in the quarterfinal. Go Blues!
Lost 6-5. Heck of a run and nothing to be ashamed about.
Well this was a roller coaster of emotions….
Separately — Chi, how you doing?
Another day another Booster shot.
Went to the beach to watch the sunset. Came back to find someone smashed into the back of our rental car.
No note left.
Way to keep it classy, Florida. 😂
https://twitter.com/michigandolf/status/1510773214431133713?s=21&t=23aFbgqUSmb7nT3GA7J61Q
Are any of you alive? Is there a njrereport convention somewhere and you’re all gathered together?
Fast
They’re all partying with Libturd for his kids hockey team.
Pumpkin, as if nobody ever dents cars in parking lots in NJ and takes off.
Some definitely do.
My SIL in Atlanta suburbs went to a local park with walking trails in what’s supposedly a high class neighborhood, and came back to find that 5 cars had their windows smashed and content stolen. Guess they hadn’t gotten to her car yet, or maybe just didn’t look like there was anything worth stealing inside.
My theory is that some people are trying self-service racial “reparations”.
Lawrence Lindsey former Fed Governor says US will fall into recession this summer as consumers will be forced to limit their spending. Additionally, he says the Fed is “nowhere close” on being able to control inflation.
Did anyone see who did it? If not and that is just your theory, why write racist statements in a public forum?
No One says:
April 4, 2022 at 4:59 pm
My theory is that some people are trying self-service racial “reparations”.
I went to an Atlanta Braves spring training game yesterday for the first time. Pretty full despite most seats running about $50, plus $18 nachos, $4 soda bottles. Drove through a huge property development on the one road that goes to and from the stadium. A friend in NJ is buying a property in a place in Venice like that for future rental income, paying over $500k for maybe a 2000sf 3br 2.5ba house from D.R. Horton close enough to I75 to probably hear it. Will Floridians have the income to pay enough rent to make a profit on that? I might wait and buy into the next Florida real estate bust. Who would want to retire in a spot like that at that price? That’s almost up to NJ $ per SF.
At the premium end of housing in my town, a neighbor sold a 4000 sf 3br, 4bath contemporary style home for $2.5m, on the same lake and golf course as me. It last sold for $1.1m in 2017. This $12m oceanside house down the road still hasn’t sold yet though, perhaps because the interior design is overwrought?:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3105-Gulf-Of-Mexico-Dr-Longboat-Key-FL-34228/66750452_zpid/
I love photo 17 which shows even people who live in $12m homes stock Jello in their cabinets.
3b,
You also have this nugget from Jamie Dimon. Who knew that several thousand dollars suddenly made middle class ‘flush with cash’ for years to come. Not like inflation has taken that away and more. He is such a delusional, arrogant narcissist that he could run for prez
“American household finances remain in “excellent shape,” and most consumers and companies are still flush with cash from the pandemic stimulus. “
Ok Old Leftist Realtor,
I don’t know if anyone caught the perps in this case. So it was probably a white MAGA hat wearing woman who did it.
But several other recent crimes and almost-crimes in the area fit the stereotypes, sorry to say.
My SIL is getting scared to go out by herself these days, as a middle aged Asian woman driving a Mercedes. Once a guy followed her to her car out in a parking lot, she was scared to death, and she said it was her good luck that a police car pulled up just as she got to her car. Maybe the police were watching him. Funny this guy stopped following her and quickly went away, and didn’t have a car parked anywhere around her. I’m sure he was just being a good samaritan and was going to offer to help her put her bags in her car. I think it’s terrible that she made such stereotypical assumptions about his intentions instead of making a statement of allyship. Her gated fancy country club community has had a big upturn in crime and robberies the last couple of years. The Chinese in the development even created their own neighborhood watch group on WeChat.
Her Asian daughter in NYC also got assaulted and chased by a stereotype, but fortunately she was a fast runner. Now she doesn’t post “Defund the Police” stuff on instagram as much as she used to, and instead is glad she lives in an apartment near the police station. The stories about other asian girls getting killed in NY isn’t boosting her confidence.
Here’s a story you’ll like better from an Atlanta journalist – it says the perpetrator of crime in Atlanta isn’t criminals, it’s desperation and inequality. Sounds like an excuse to me.
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/great-reads/the-source-of-violent-crime-in-atlanta-isnt-mysterious-its-desperation-born-by-inequality/
And we are back.
ABC Parking was awesome still, but Elizabeth is now up to 18.5% parking tax. 15% for parking and 3.5% standard sales tax (development zone). I will pay cash next time, because I paid $15 in taxes to park for 5 days. This is quite ludicrous in my opinion and I know they offer a significant discount for cash payment.
Bystander: I saw that, unbelievable. As for my earlier post on Lindsey, other economists are saying he is wrong, and they believe many Americans have a lot of their stimulus money saved and so consumer spending won’t be hurt. I am confident in saying that I believe most Americans who got stimulus money spent it months ago.
I am well. Back to work. Day 9. Fully masking up with KN-95. Keeping my office closed and avoiding everyone. I somehow managed to not get anyone with direct exposure to me sick. Thank you for asking.
Boomer Remover says:
April 3, 2022 at 7:34 pm
Separately — Chi, how you doing?
3b it’s April 4th and 50% of my rentals have not paid yet. I don’t think the average joes are flush with cash. Btw Florida rentals are the way to go. For some reason jersey tenants never have money.
My guess, not that I know really, would be FL tenant laws would be much more on the side of the homeowner / landlord compared to NJ. But again, just a guess.
7:26 You’ve had a lot of nice sentiments come through on the board, not from me mind you, but nice ones anyhow.
6:02 Dimon has been a known f-ckhead since time immemorial.
Click the link..check the video. Yea, it’s only NYC with the problems.
BTW, yes, when I see videos like this I thank god I live in wayne nj. Just being honest. Wayne really safe compared to what america has become ALL OVERz.
“Today in Americans without context.”
https://twitter.com/stephenpunwasi/status/1511049861226975239?s=21&t=VOPMdYW0nC3OFlmOyB4onA
Ex, yes Florida does not have as they say a bleeding heart. 30 days and you are out
https://www.tapinto.net/towns/wayne/sections/police-and-fire/articles/wayne-ranked-low-on-list-of-nj-s-safest-cities-here-s-why
In other news, my brother in law, who works for the Feds in Newark, was just given his back to work schedule. He is in the office 3 out of 9 workdays. He works a 5-day/week, 4-day/week, work schedule. So he’ll be in the office two days the five-day week, one day the 4-day week. Still no talk of return in my company. There’s been a little chatter at Gator’s, but they keep delaying.
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/04/criticism-builds-of-clark-mayor-police-officials-allegedly-caught-using-racial-slurs.html
Two years ago, the township concealed the allegations by quietly agreeing to pay the whistleblower and his attorney $400,000 under a legal settlement. The whistleblower, Lt. Antonio Manata, was also allowed to remain on the payroll for more than two years without working at an additional cost of $289,700 in salary alone. In exchange, he turned over the recordings to ensure they would not be disseminated and agreed not to file a lawsuit.
In July 2020, six months after the settlement was signed, the Union County Prosecutor’s Office seized control of Clark’s police department, citing “credible allegations of misconduct.” Since then, Chief Matos and Sgt. Teston have been on paid administrative leave, as has a captain, Vincent Concina, whom Manata accused of retaliation.
County prosecutors and the state Attorney General’s Office say the investigation continues, even as the three suspended officers have been paid a combined $763,000 and counting through March 15, township records show. None of the three have publicly commented.
I’m much more concerned with government corruption and “the stereotypes” committing white collar crimes.
Joyce,
That’s an incredible story.
Joyce, when I worked in Clark I was told certain hourly employees were excused being late due to the Clark police regularly enforcing traffic laws on them. But it seems like all those Rt 22 towns are like that in the area.
I get paid to fix the damage from violent crime. Job security for me. Chi glad you are better.
“Is there a njrereport convention somewhere and you’re all gathered together?”
I thought you all headed over to Truth Social for the Closing Down Party!
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60922717
Uses Bell Works as a back drop
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xEQP4VVuyrY
For those that are very worried, keep some of these in your car. Put them in your car jack kit.
https://www.narescue.com/hyfin-vent-chest-seal-twin-pack.html
Propaganda out of Russia. Chilling and supposidly translated word for word.
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64
No words, mothers writing contact info on their children in case thet are killed.
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1511059303611969542?cxt=HHwWjMC5pcibrvgpAAAA
Pretty sure they used the word “nazi” or “denazification” in nearly ever sentence.
good news Chi. Glad it all worked out.
Chgo: Glad to hear you are feeling better.
If you need to isolate again. I have a couple of units vacant.
And Putin has literally brainwashed the masses. Posted somewhere Ukrainian called family in Russia to tell them what is going on and Russian said not possible. Maybe worried about bugged phone, who knows.
Voltaire quote is accurate,
“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”.
Three cheers to Elon Musk for purchasing his TWTR stake and joining the Board. Twitter and other tech giants (youtube, FB) have unduly censored speech on their platforms, but eventually truth prevails.
Now, Musk will push back against censorship in the discourse. Excesses and disequilibrium meet countervailing force – whether tech giants, cable news, or Putin – you get too far from the truth and a wave will crash upon you.
A practical note – CEO Prarag Agrawal came into his office and embraced tougher censorship. Lol, I wonder if he is still CEO by new year’s 2023. Prarag Compensation is substantial (“Agrawal’s compensation included a $623,000 salary, a $600,000 bonus, and $29 million in stock awards tied to his promotion to CEO. Twitter also paid for security services for Agrawal, totaling $64,000.”). On a personal level, I hope Prarag is blackballed and has a hard time finding another $500k+ job.
Elon does not always play nice with others, judging by his twitter poll last night for the edit button he has gone in hard.
Glad that I have an edit button on the blog.
Musk should have stuck to what he wanted to do before he got power. Now he is drunk off it and going into politics. What a shame…just lost a brilliant mind to politics and power. F him with a brick.
Speech does need to be censored this day and age because it’s f/ing dangerous. Any unbiased adult should agree that you can’t give a social platform to power hungry liars to say whatever they want…they do not have good intentions and will abuse this power just like trump did.
Very confused about the go-forward Russian strategy to push through on the east through Donbas and Luhansk.
If the strategy is to “liberate” these areas and spin them out of Ukraine, I fail to see what, if anything, will be left of those two regions should a larger scale fight break out.
Irish Diplomacy in action.
Russian embassy writes to Irish Gov’t for help as they face running out of fuel for heating & hot water supply as some companies refuse to deliver.
Russian embassy calls it “discriminatory.”
https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1511239058101575688
In the office again today… train and parking lot at 50% capacity. My office almost looks like pre-covid days as far as activity and number of people. Masks are slowly being shed everywhere and office attendance appears to be returning to normal. I suspect a hybrid of home/office attendance will be the standard but I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes back to more office and less home attendance.
Fast: Combination hybrid/ remote kind of a compromise right now. As to your point more office and less home, away from your company, I think it will go the opposite mire home and less office, that’s what I am hearing from family and friends on the hybrid model. An attorney friend of mine just left his firm for all remote opportunity and office on occasion, the firm he went to is dumping one of their 2 floors when lease is up.
Pumps – Twitter played politics with the election as well as the pandemic. The government and their operatives should not be squashing free speech we don’t live in Russia or China.
Feds Brainard says inflation much too high, and the risk is for higher inflation. Hurting the poor and lower income the most. She says Fed needs to get inflation under control.
Her commentary is notable as she was one of the more dovish members of the Fed.
Agree to disagree. People like Trump should not be given a voice to say dumb lies to rile up our populace. No one wants to take away freedom of speech, they want to take away the ability to spread lies so that we don’t have another attack on our capital when the election doesn’t go their way.
At the end of the day, they let Trump have freedom of speech long enough till it became dangerous.
I’m wish Trump never went on twitter. His tweets helped destroy white males in this country. Made us prime targets. Thanks. And the irony, white males are his biggest supporters. Way to f/k em in the ass.
Juice Box says:
April 5, 2022 at 11:14 am
Pumps – Twitter played politics with the election as well as the pandemic. The government and their operatives should not be squashing free speech we don’t live in Russia or China.
You have to know when to let go. You are doing the same thing with your “suburbs are dead” talk. Taking a short term trend and applying it to long-term. Hybrid is the closest we are getting to WFH. No one in their right mind, only a few, want to take their company full remote. If you think a company like Apple or Microsoft want to destroy their business model by going full on remote, you are crazy.
3b says:
April 5, 2022 at 11:11 am
Fast: Combination hybrid/ remote kind of a compromise right now. As to your point more office and less home, away from your company, I think it will go the opposite mire home and less office, that’s what I am hearing from family and friends on the hybrid model. An attorney friend of mine just left his firm for all remote opportunity and office on occasion, the firm he went to is dumping one of their 2 floors when lease is up.
3b,
I’m getting more comfortable with the mix of home and office. I thought WFH exclusively would be the preference but either way, I do see the office/remote model as the new standard. Time will tell what we settle in to. Some are reducing real estate and some are insisting more office attendance than not so when the water settles, it’ll probably be a 50/50 deal. Personally, I had no desire to return to the office but I’m warming up to the combo and do see the advantages of coming into the office.
It’s really funny to watch people promote twitter censorship flip out the second the wrong person now buys heavily into the company. You are just ok when your team does it.
No one wants to take away freedom of speech, they want to take away the ability to spread lies…
Yeah! You tell ’em! That Hunter laptop thing is Russian disinformation!
The lie was riling up his base that the election was rigged. Do you know how dangerous that is coming from a President’s mouth? Freedom of speech, sure, but not freedom to spread bs because you lost. Imagine if hillary started saying the election was rigged after losing…and she was the crooked one?!
I don’t think this would be allowed in Florida if these were third graders. Fortunately most states are so much more enlightened and tolerant.
https://southpark.cc.com/video-clips/499n7v/south-park-butters-ruins-the-pajama-plan
11:39 . . . that’s not free speech.
Who gets to be the arbiter of what constitutes “bs”?
If Trump or anyone is spreading “bs,” the response is for one person, or 1M people, or 100M people to use their free speech to state “he is lying.” Then, individuals can choose what to believe and, over time, the truth becomes known.
When you are not following this process, you get societies based on lies. Soviet Union. Pre-WW2 Germany. Two sides of the same coin. The US is supposed to be a different coin. And, we took a step toward remaining a different coin by Elon countervailing the predisposition toward censorship at TWTR.
Left-minded people on this board . . .
Nobody supports teaching sex-ed currciulum to kids in grades K-3, correct? The Dems are going to drop any opposition to this aspect of the FL law, right?
I believe when I was in grade school, we either had sex ed in 4th or 5th grade. Maybe it was 6th grade, though?
crushed, even 4th is too early. I’d say 6th is the right age.
Pumps: You are trapped in the past, and motivated only by your own self preservation. WFH , fully remote or office hybrid, as a compromise/half way, is where the future of work is going. Some teacher in Wayne with absolutely zero reference points only his own self preservation is not going to change that.
If your spouse was not in the corporate real estate business, I guarantee you , you would not care. At least be honest.
Those of us who are in corporate America whether we are fully remote or hybrid, should be able discuss it here, like so many other topics are without you harassing us.
Unless you had proof the election was rigged, you should not be able to say it under the veil of freedom of speech. Be careful what you ask for. Just remember, kids are on social media, and they are eating all this bs up. Going backwards, not forward, imho. Internet was supposed to enlighten us, not be used as a social experiment on manipulation for power.
crushednjmillenial says:
April 5, 2022 at 12:07 pm
11:39 . . . that’s not free speech.
Who gets to be the arbiter of what constitutes “bs”?
If Trump or anyone is spreading “bs,” the response is for one person, or 1M people, or 100M people to use their free speech to state “he is lying.” Then, individuals can choose what to believe and, over time, the truth becomes known.
When you are not following this process, you get societies based on lies. Soviet Union. Pre-WW2 Germany. Two sides of the same coin. The US is supposed to be a different coin. And, we took a step toward remaining a different coin by Elon countervailing the predisposition toward censorship at TWTR.
Musk shouldn’t be allowed to call senator’s a “karen” because they want him to pay income taxes. And if you can’t see how Musk is using twitter to his benefit, you are blind. Dude puts out a poll that he knows people are going to vote yes to, and then gets to dump 10 billion worth of shares because the poll told me to. Playing with fire, but who gives a f/k. F/k people, I’m getting old and sick of it. Different face, same lust for power. Politics should be banned from social media and the world will be a better place. Instead, it’s become the ultimate political tool to get power.
I liked Musk when he was on a mission to help humanity. Those days might be gone. Just the way it is. Money and power corrupt absolutely. Think it’s changing who he is.
crushed-
The Florida law doesn’t prohibit teaching sex ed; it prohibits “classroom
discussion about sexual orientation or gender identity”.
Landlock Ukraine. Control areas with greatest natural resources, control all land adjacent to only warm water access to Russia. Impose tolls, confiscation, surveillance on all commerce passing over Russia controlled lands to interior.
Control of Odessa critical.
grim says:
April 5, 2022 at 10:37 am
Very confused about the go-forward Russian strategy to push through on the east through Donbas and Luhansk.
If the strategy is to “liberate” these areas and spin them out of Ukraine, I fail to see what, if anything, will be left of those two regions should a larger scale fight break out.
Lib, welcome back and congrats.
Dumbass…it was really difficult to choose which of your ridiculously vacuous, ill-conceived, and moronic posts to quote in support of my statement…but I drew from a hat so here goes.
For 99.9% of inner city teachers I would agree that the poor outcomes of their students rests overwhelmingly with the students’ backgrounds and socio-economics…however, in your case I pity any student coming through your class….it is dumbfounding that you are a teacher at all, let alone a teacher of social sciences and history in particular with statements like these…
“Speech does need to be censored this day and age because it’s f/ing dangerous. Any unbiased adult should agree that you can’t give a social platform to power hungry liars to say whatever they want…they do not have good intentions and will abuse this power just like trump did.”
JFC….
Chi is correct on Ukraine. East is poor people, but resource rich. West is modern, but no resources.
Free speech is necessary. Even if Trump lies. Up to people to get educated and make decision. With that said, Musk is more dangerous than Trump. He just bought the right to lie. He is a d1ck and a constant abuser of his power.
Inflation is out of control and housing is going to slow rapidly.
Then recession. Then employers having the upper hand. Finally, settling in mix of WFH and office. Eventually settling on a mix, which provides best for productivity.
I reacted the same way to Pump’s Freedom of Speech position. And this coming from a history teacher. If you study Nazi Germany. One of the first things Hitler did was censor the media. He knew once in power, it’s the key to a lifetime term of leadership and provides the freedom to lie. Emergency War Powers was the other key piece. You gain those two, it’s game over.
Maybe I’m being unfair, but Brainard is a partisan hack and SJW.
3b says:
April 5, 2022 at 11:14 am
Feds Brainard says inflation much too high, and the risk is for higher inflation. Hurting the poor and lower income the most. She says Fed needs to get inflation under control.
Her commentary is notable as she was one of the more dovish members of the Fed
Lefty,
Just wait till someone like AOC turns to the dark side and start spitting lies that people eat up on social media. Then we will see how much you really enjoy giving individuals a platform to lie and manipulate in the name of freedom of speech.
Again, I have no problem with freedom of speech, but I do have a problem with telling lies. Big f/ing difference.
Funny part, you would be the first parent to go off on your child’s teacher if they were spreading lies, but you have no problem when someone like trump does it as president. JFC! Wtf is wrong with you?
Chgo: Perhaps , I am not that familiar with her, only know that she has been consistently dovish. The fact she is changing her tune is telling in my view, or just self preservation.
What is the difference between censoring the media and using the media to spread lies for power? Seriously, what is the difference?
Libturd says:
April 5, 2022 at 1:39 pm
I reacted the same way to Pump’s Freedom of Speech position. And this coming from a history teacher. If you study Nazi Germany. One of the first things Hitler did was censor the media. He knew once in power, it’s the key to a lifetime term of leadership and provides the freedom to lie. Emergency War Powers was the other key piece. You gain those two, it’s game over.
Says the guy that so far looks like he is going to be wrong on his remote position…looks like the teacher was right. Truth hurts.
“Those of us who are in corporate America whether we are fully remote or hybrid, should be able discuss it here, like so many other topics are without you harassing us.”
Lib: Well said as always. The fact that a history teacher would say free speech should be limited is shocking! But, coming from where it did perhaps not.
Recession is coming, thats a given. In my town already seeing asking price changes, and that’s with little inventory at the moment.
As for work, hybrid/ fully remote, combination of both, but no going back to the 5 days in the office. Recession comes, and companies can dump more real estate and dump people. They get it all!
When a President yells and screams that the election was rigged, which leads to citizens openly revolting and attacking our govt; someone should be held accountable. Those people are going to jail because their President used them as pawns on a chess board. Fing wrong.
And yes, people should have common sense, but they don’t. We already know this.
The difference is that you can’t censor the media fairly. The only fair way is to let the listener/reader decide. This is overcome through education. Which is why Academia swings left. But sometimes (like now) they swing so far Left (identity politics) that they lose the middle. This is where they are right now and why I know it’s over for the Left for the midterms and most likely we’ll see the liar in chief back in office with his c0ckamamie followers.
Pumps: I never said fully remote for every company, not once , so stop lying. Your spouse brings in the bulk of the family income and that’s why you hate WFH. At be honest and admit it.
Lib: It’s the lefts own fault if Trump gets back in office, you can argue rightly that many Americans are ill informed, and perhaps even stupid, but they are not that stupid.
Pretty much every politician I’ve ever seen spreads lies for power.
If Twitter bans false information, they need to ban all religious comments, because that is replete with non-factual information. Instead they pretend they have expertise on all sorts of matters of judgment on the most hotly debated issues, which they don’t. Or they just ban people for PR purposes, when it feels good to them.
Facebook is probably worse, with all their manipulative shadow-banning games, and comment-hiding techniques, and promoting stuff they like, demoting stuff they don’t. I remember decades ago Facebook just showed everything that your friends posted. Lately most of my prolific posting friends have been in facebook jail in March, and other people are posting stuff and asking if anyone is seeing it.
Websites like these where there are posts and then comments may be making a comeback.
WFH is remote. Hybrid is not WFH. You claimed over and over that NYC and offices are dead. I challenged you over and over on that position. In the end, you always come back to this position that I only care because my wife works for a REIT. You did the same thing to me when I told you suburbs are not dead, you went on and said I only took that position because I owned real estate in north jersey that you wanted to crash. I just like being correct my friend, one day you will see it.
I cheered on real estate all last decade because I saw it for what it was, a golden opportunity to buy low and sell high in early 2020s. You didn’t listen. That’s on you. You don’t hear me cheering on real estate right now, do you? Wonder why.
Pumps: You are lying again. I certainly know the difference between fully remote, vs hybrid and semi remote. I did say NYC offices are dead and they are, dead in the huge amount of space that is currently available, and more that is coming on from projects that were approved years ago and have not come on line yet.
Dead that occupancy rates as of the end of March are still only about 30 percent, and you keep going on with your short term trend nonsense. And dead and read this closely and digest it, commercial property owners have lost their leverage as companies have an alternative now, which is WFH fully remote or hybrid remote.
The landlords don’t call the shots anymore, the tenants do.
As for me saying the suburbs were dead, I did, and at the time based on facts and circumstances it certainly appeared that way. But, the pandemic changed everything.
As for wanting real estate to come down, yes I do , and it’s for the younger generations benefit not mine. You just care about yourself.
As for changing ones view , I remember in the last few years you were a Socialist, a Trump supporter , and now deem yourself a proud Liberal, you change like the wind.
You can be anti WFH, remote, hybrid whatever, all you want, but at least be honest in why you are, and not come on this board and lecture us about how bad it is , as if you are some kind of expert, and speak from personal experience.
“Again, I have no problem with freedom of speech, but I do have a problem with telling lies. Big f/ing difference.”
You are a fool. And incredibly dangerous.
The only question for me is who poses a greater danger….you, in your asinine obliviousness or someone actually knowledgeable with ill intent.
The term WFH includes both fully remote and hybrid models – and there are dozens of variants contained within the term hybrid. Hybrid isn’t exclusively # on / # off. Good example of a model that is gaining speed is hybrid models that provide for on-site attendance for onboarding, training, collaboration, team meetings only. In this model, most “work” is done “from home”, but there is a clear expectation that employees are within a commutable distance (sometimes called hub and spoke), and attend on an as-needed basis. This is likely going to be the winning model for many organizations, as it allows for smaller real estate footprints (no dedicated seating or offices), but provides for the benefits of collaboration.
I would wait until Pumps can name one politician that does not lie, but then I won’t live long enough for him to find the answer. By his own admission lying politicians should be banned, it’s good for democracy and all.
Grim: I understand all of that, and we have kept space for specific purposes, but not as a place to do the routine work. It’s another person here that does not understand that, and I will leave it at that.
Juice: We ban all the politicians! Problem solved!
Just booked a weekend to Southampton in June, I got the last room, every thing booked through Labor Day weekend.
3b,
I have no problem changing positions. At least I’m constantly thinking.
“Jeff Bezos recently stopped by the office of 37 Signals. After talking product strategy he answered some questions.
In his answer to one question he shared some thoughts on people who were “right a lot.”
He said people who were right a lot of the time were people who often changed their minds. He doesn’t think consistency of thought is a particularly positive trait. It’s perfectly healthy — encouraged, even — to have an idea tomorrow that contradicted your idea today.
He’s observed that the smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.”
“Bezos isn’t alone. Warren Buffett’s long time business partner Charlie Munger captures this:
If Berkshire has made modest progress, a good deal of it is because Warren and I are very good at destroying our own best-loved ideas. Any year that you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year.
John Kenneth Galbraith put it this way:
Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.”
Exactly, but they have never had access to a platform like this before. Uncharted territory. Do we allow the social media platform to be used for lies and manipulation to gain power? That’s the big question.
It’s clear everyone is in support of being allowed to spread lies on this blog. Then they complain about dirty politicians. Laughable.
No One says:
April 5, 2022 at 2:00 pm
Pretty much every politician I’ve ever seen spreads lies for power.
Why do you support empowering liars in the name of freedom of speech? There has to be a middle road when it comes to politicians/powerful individuals and their use of social media. It’s downright dangerous when they have massive followers.
Juice Box says:
April 5, 2022 at 2:44 pm
I would wait until Pumps can name one politician that does not lie, but then I won’t live long enough for him to find the answer. By his own admission lying politicians should be banned, it’s good for democracy and all.
It was like in 2020…when that hedge fund dude decides to say hell is coming. He then goes on to make billions from that in less than a month.
The day huge companies work out of their employee’s homes…..I’ll believe when I see it. Till then, my bet is on the office not dying.
Grim says:
April 5, 2022 at 2:39 pm
The term WFH includes both fully remote and hybrid models – and there are dozens of variants contained within the term hybrid. Hybrid isn’t exclusively # on / # off. Good example of a model that is gaining speed is hybrid models that provide for on-site attendance for onboarding, training, collaboration, team meetings only. In this model, most “work” is done “from home”, but there is a clear expectation that employees are within a commutable distance (sometimes called hub and spoke), and attend on an as-needed basis. This is likely going to be the winning model for many organizations, as it allows for smaller real estate footprints (no dedicated seating or offices), but provides for the benefits of collaboration.
Pumps: You want a medal? You are now telling us how smart you are because you change change your mind? You go from Trump supporter, to Socialist, to Liberal in a matter of months , then spend countless posts here lecturing us, on whatever new religion you found only to change your mind again.
It’s your right of course, but I would think at your age, your core beliefs would have been settled, with perhaps some adjustments or modifications as facts and circumstances change. Swinging wildly from Socialist to Trump supporter, to now Liberal seems extreme in my view.
Pumps: Your bet is on the office not dying as you personally have a vested interest nothing more.
Grim has worked for multiple companies, consulting as well I believe, traveled all over the world, engaged with senior people from all corporate backgrounds, and yes even he is wrong. Here is an opportunity to perhaps change your mind, but that won’t happen.
The Oracle from Wayne knows best.
Did I work in real estate? No. Yet, I still made an amazing call on real estate. See how that works. Why didn’t all the experts make that call?
What’s funny. You bash the FED over and over. Yet, based on your position towards me, who are you to question the FED? They are the experts.
“Call” on real estate ?
Well, Bless your heart.
Who am I question the Fed?? I spent years as a bond trader, I worked with some incredibly smart people, and I learned a lot from them, and I will throw in an MBA as well. So, that I believe gives me the right to challenge and question the Fed.
As for them being experts, really? Are you kidding? What experts would let inflation get out of control when all the signs and red flags, and warning signs were there.
Ex: I suspect you might mean the other definition of Bless your heart. My apologies if I am wrong, but I learned that from some of Southern friends back in the day, and I believe you are from the south or a border state, so guessing you are familiar with it.
White House is expected to extend student loan pause through August 31, from May 1; less than many advocates had been hoping for.
Getting the Pf booster. Will let you know if I survive shortly.
3:35 yes you are correct
Booster? Do you mean 4th dose? It’s not for general availability. Approvals for the 4th Pfizer shot, are coming the FDA advisory committee is slated to meet until tomorrow.
https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-april-6-2022-meeting-announcement#event-information.
Booster/4th shot (full dose). They asked me why I was switching. I told them I have no brand loyalty. Truth is, we researched the crap outta this and by switching, it most likely offers better protection for an unknown strain. As well as appears to help more with extending your bodies ability to fight as the original (Moderna in my case) impact wains with each additional booster. Hopefully, this will do its thang until the regular flu shot comes out (and most likely will contain protection for the newer Covid strains we’ve seen).
The Great Pumpkin says:
April 5, 2022 at 11:39 am
…..Imagine if hillary started saying the election was rigged after losing…and she was the crooked one?!
Not a fan of Trump, but come on, Hillary did the same thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO-Sw8CCxxY
Also, the violent protests all over the country…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_protests_against_Donald_Trump#:~:text=Following%20the%20announcement%20of%20Trump's,the%20following%20weeks%20and%20months.
Fed minutes tomorrow will detail how they are pairing down their 9 trillion dollar balance sheet, which they claim is going well.
Did the 4th dose Sunday. By Monday afternoon I was feeling a little depleted.
Went home and hit the sack early. Five today.
Pumps History must not be your strong suit. Look up the Church committee or the pike committee from the 1970s, look at what the pentagon papers were in the 1960s, look at what Snowden did or Assange or many others did, heck the more recent Panama papers etc. Without the internet today the media can and will bury stories, the 4th estate is not above reproach, and the government itself should never be the arbiter of what is true, false or somewhere in between. Just last week Hillary Clinton herself was fined for an election violation over the Steele Dossier which the media ate up, her little October Surprise before the 2016 election fell flat but it could have changed the election if the garbage that Steele made up wasn’t so outlandish and unbelievable.
Another point, the reason why Putin has something like an 86% approval rating is because of the state sponsored media lies propagated to the masses in Russian on RuNet their Russian language media sources. They blocked Twitter and Facebook just in the last month because it has some truth about the war muddied in with allot of disinformation. The reality is the truth will set you free but some people are just too lazy to be bothered looking for it, they would rather be spoon fed there whole lives, and never taste anything but bland state approved news.
3B – Fed is going to sell all that mortgage paper to whom?
Bernake’s trillion dollar experiment in propping up home prices continues to this day. Something that should have never happened 14 years ago. They will hold that MBS until we are all dead.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB
3b, I have a proposal for you. A bet.
I get to call the bet; you get to set the wager.
The bet? The loser is the first one who responds to a Pumps post from now on.
Care to accept and offer the wager?
Actually to pumpkin’s critics I hear his teaching is rated “outstanding” as he speaks fluent Jive.
No vaccine has been tested to better target any of the COVID-19 variants. They cannot even test it anymore anyway there are too many people have had Beta, Delta, and Omicron as well as the vaccines. How on earth can they even test a newer multi-variant vaccine properly?
One hour post Pfizer shot, feeling tired. This was the only side effect I got from my original Moderna.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
That is a fairly quick antibody response there Lib, sounds like you did not need the 4th shot. Let’s see what comes out of the FDA meeting tomorrow.
There was supposed to be a quick finger prick blood test for antibodies, it however was never commercialized as far as I know.
Left: Hmmmm, I have to think about that one for a day, but it is tempting, and it would be the incentive I need to stop responding to him.
However, the other side of me will be hard pressed not to respond to him, as it gives him free reign to dominate and say whatever he wants and never be challenged. As well if I accept your offer, I know full well that he will do everything to get me to respond. So, were I to accept your offer it will be quite difficult on my part to say the least.
That all being said I will let you know by COB tomorrow. Does that work?
Juice: Exactly, so I don’t know how they can claim the process is going well, and apparently will disclose that in their minutes tomorrow.
As some Fed officials are acknowledging housing appears to be in or going no into a bubble, what happened to all the its a supply problem talk? Is supply no longer an issue? The fact is housing is and has been in a bubble.
LOL, 3b, sure. Same here, btw.
It’s a MAD proposal…
Didn’t see this.
10-Yr Bond
2.5560
+0.1440(+5.97%)
Ahh, of course, JPM and IBM and many other corps trying to destroy salary disclosure bill. Good old Jamie Dimon at work. Guy is a criminal against the common man.
“NYC Salary Tran*parency Law in Question as Businesses Push Back
City Council may delay landmark change until November, limit scope.”
March 4 (one month ago) 1.72
August 4 (eight months ago) 1.18
Think about that one a bit.
Libturd, Booyah says:
April 5, 2022 at 6:02 pm
Didn’t see this.
10-Yr Bond
2.5560
+0.1440(+5.97%)
Juice,
Everyone complaining about Trump not being able to post on Twitter can literally go to the App created just for that “Truth Social.”
Left: It is mad indeed! We will decide by COB tomorrow.
I don’t really care for hillary, but trump was the master of social media. He set a bad precedent. He might have had good policies/intentions, but at the end of the day, he messed up this country. He injected steroids into the woke movement/blm movement. They were dead on arrival until he triggered his enemies with non stop attacks on social media. TDS anyone?! Result-I’m scared to say anything in the classroom as a white male. Way to go! MAGA!
AJ says:
April 5, 2022 at 4:19 pm
The Great Pumpkin says:
April 5, 2022 at 11:39 am
…..Imagine if hillary started saying the election was rigged after losing…and she was the crooked one?!
Not a fan of Trump, but come on, Hillary did the same thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO-Sw8CCxxY
Now you have wannabe trumps coming up like Desantis. These losers give meaning to a woke lefty’s life. All they do is feed these woke animals and fill them with pure rage. Great job!! 👏👍🏻
haha, wow…I quit about 2 posts in
Once again the irony from the right. Talking free speech, yet how many try to silence me on this blog. Hypocrisy indeed. Free speech my ass..
Enough politics for me. Stayed away from it a long time on this blog because i realized long ago both sides are involved in some hypocrisy based orgy. F that. I’m here to talk markets. April is usually a positive month, but looks like the market about to get body slammed.
Just wanted to say this. The real idiots are the people blaming the pandemic for this real estate run instead of demographics and supply/demand. Cheers.
There is no way in hell you would have a run on housing right now without hungry millennials. And lots of them. But yea, keep blaming the pandemic for the overwhelming supply/demand ratio. So call me an idiot for getting correctly since 2012. Called it on the years. It happened.
Ex says:
April 5, 2022 at 3:29 pm
“Call” on real estate ?
Well, Bless your heart.
And now with inflation and low unemployment level…good luck waiting on a major dip in housing. It’s not till 2026. We didn’t even hit the mania stage which starts in 2024 and pops in 2026.
Trump couldn’t pour pee out of a boot if the instructions were written on the heel.
He targeted a bunch of fools so willing to buy into almost anyone who pretended to care about their sorry asses. TRUTH be told Trump can’t run a lemonade stand. Why? My guess he robs the place blind before they even sell a drop of lemonade.
Pumps: No one is silencing you, you can post all you want. People can choose to ignore if they wish.
Pumps: The Fed is seeing things different than you as in concerned about the bubble. After all, they are the experts, who are you to say otherwise?
Stocks going to get slammed maybe 10-20-% more, but real estate won’t. Real estate will slow down while rates are in hawk mode, but by 2023, see ya later when they open the flood gates. Demand will be there. So try to get a deal off an idiot right now, and sell in 2025 for much more.
“Reflecting on some conversations I’ve had lately with non-homebuilders. Common sentiment- “I raised prices just to test the market and the buyer didn’t even flinch””
https://twitter.com/aliwolfecon/status/1511480186386092032?s=21&t=7ERnG40s9aQyottdI3pn1w
After millennial wave, be careful with real estate. World population growth is getting ugly. Eventually, real estate is going to get destroyed….demographics says so. Unless investor class holds asset for loss with no income on rentals. Going to eventually run out of buyers.
Run out of buyers…say bye to pricing…3b’s wet-dream.
And I’m putting my money where my mouth is..selling my rental by 2025. Will buy back in if I’m wrong.
Nhmd taught me well. Volume. You need volume. Without it, housing prices are in big trouble. So show me the demographics that will produce a supply/demand in balance created by the current millennial buying wave. You won’t.
The wild card. Millennials are so rich from boomers money/self created income that they buy up multiple properties. Combined with blackrock buying pressure in search of yields, housing could continue to rise into 2030’s.
We will see.
You have to 1031. You will get murdered on the taxes.
Pumps: Sat by to pricing now, population growth is down as you note, household formation is 24 percent lower than it has been over the last 40 years. Oh and house flipping is near peak where it was before the last downturn. This is just the last of the mania.
As for your wet dream comment, it’s so typically childish of you, and yet, you wonder why.
You bought a bag of hair:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skJ1nL4scv4
I feel like some old engine.
Lost my drivin’ wheeeeeel.
“The bet? The loser is the first one who responds to a Pumps post from now on.”
What odds are you giving me?
30 year mtg crosses 5 percent, 5.02 to be exact, one year ago it was 3.38 percent
” He injected steroids into the woke movement/blm movement”
No, he injected steroids into the rights view their objection to anything is sacrosanct. There is no middle ground or a compromise. No middle ground on any issue.
7:50 I think we’re all rooting for housing.
But it looks like a cooling off is in order.
Soft landing anyone….? Deutsch Bank sees a recession ahead.