Nothing to worry about

Posted on April 22, 2022 by grim

From Wealth of Common Sense:

4 Reasons the Housing Market Won’t Crash

  • Millennials are the biggest demographic in the country
  • We don’t have enough housing supply
  • No one wants to sell
  • Consumer balance sheets remain strong

Discuss.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

152 Responses to Nothing to worry about

  1. grim says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:40 am

    Star Ledger reads like High Times these days.

  2. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:38 am

    Grim

    Funny. Just looked, you are correct.

    It’s almost all about weed.

  4. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:52 am

    Zillow and Trulia have my house valued at a figure that surprises me a bit. I can’t figure it… no one can. It’s speculation and prediction. If we all knew, we’d all be super rich. If you took just the first point above, that would be enough to justify rising prices. 20% higher in one year, though? What will the spring of 2023 look like compared to now regarding YOY increases? If any. Interest rates may be the deciding factor.

  5. grim says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:58 am

    Yah, I’m $623k on Zillow as of today, with a top end “Zestimate” of $688k. That’s up (a magical) 50% in 10 years, granted I did put money in to renovating – though that’s not likely captured in the valuation estimate.

  7. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:03 am

    This legal weed thing is ridiculous. I smoked a ton of weed like most but legalizing adds zero value to personal prosperity. It adds no motivational significance other than an escape mechanism. It reduces the message and influence on our youth in regards to discipline, hard work and restraint. If you want to b0ng it up, mainline p-funk, f.uck your neighbors spouse and indulge your weirdness, then do it discreetly and out of view.

  8. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:07 am

    Yah, I’m $623k on Zillow as of today, with a top end “Zestimate” of $688k. That’s up (a magical) 50% in 10 years, granted I did put money in to renovating – though that’s not likely captured in the valuation estimate.

    I’m 250K above purchase price in 6.5 years. That’s not including the slew of improvements/upgrades which I know doesn’t necessarily translate to equal value. However, when you walk in my front door and see a stone fireplace, French doors to an office and copious room for a baby grand piano in the living room, I suspect that figure may very well be close.

  9. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:08 am

    Eddie,
    It’s why they medicate all of the nursing home patients.

    Much easier to control than an angry group of old Karens.

    Plus now a whole new legal drug- and more tickets for driving under the influence.

    Just like smoking a beehive…

  10. Old realtor says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:10 am

    Coming off of 2 years of unprecedented appreciation and facing rapidly rising interest rates, it is hard for me to be bullish on real estate for the next few years. Cannot make sense of the current environment at NJ sheriff sales and I will not reach for opportunities.

    Purchased my current home at sheriff sale in 2015 for $275,000. Zillow has me at $765,000 today.

  11. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:17 am

    Purchased my current home at sheriff sale in 2015 for $275,000. Zillow has me at $765,000 today.

    Cash out and move to a substantially cheaper locale.

  12. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:19 am

    Plus now a whole new legal drug- and more tickets for driving under the influence.

    If local and state government machines want more tax dollars, why not just legalize prost1tuation and get it over with.

  13. Old realtor says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:37 am

    Eddie,
    Not going anywhere. Current house is a 2 family. Current PITI after rental is well under $1000 a month. Nowhere cheaper to move to.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:41 am

    Ahh, remember this well. Esp, the second paragraph. Remember that 3b and others? Busting my balls calling me the village idiot. Yea, who was correct? Same thing happened when you guys said NYC was dead in 2020. Wrong again. Same thing will happen with WFH, 3b….you will be wrong again. See the trend?!

    “The majority of the most common age groups for the next decade and a half will be people in their thirties and forties. The baby boomers have dominated demographics in this country for decades, but now millennials have taken their seat on the throne.

    Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, many pundits proclaimed millennials would never buy houses. The idea was they saw what happened to the housing market, the job market wasn’t great, and young people were just going to live in cities forever.

    Many young people did put off settling down for longer than their parent’s generation, but eventually people grow up. They have kids and responsibilities and move to the suburbs. And when this happens most people want to buy a house.

    That’s exactly what’s happening. Millennials accounted for more than half of all mortgage loan applications in 2021.”

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:43 am

    Did I write this article or this opening? lol Glad to see people are getting it. Crash can happen but it’s almost impossible….better chance of getting struck by lightning or bit by a shark.

    “4 Reasons the Housing Market Won’t Crash
    Millennials are the biggest demographic in the country
    We don’t have enough housing supply
    No one wants to sell
    Consumer balance sheets remain strong”

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:48 am

    Suburbs are dead! No one wants to own a house. But what did that sage say the entire time….wait till 2020…millennials will drive the market and I knocked it out of the park! See ya!! But yet, keep blaming it on the pandemic like a mental midget.

    “Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, many pundits proclaimed millennials would never buy houses. The idea was they saw what happened to the housing market, the job market wasn’t great, and young people were just going to live in cities forever.

    Many young people did put off settling down for longer than their parent’s generation, but eventually people grow up. They have kids and responsibilities and move to the suburbs. And when this happens most people want to buy a house.

    That’s exactly what’s happening. Millennials accounted for more than half of all mortgage loan applications in 2021.”

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:51 am

    Even worse, keep blaming the rising prices on low rates or the FED instead of the actual cause….overwhelming demand by the millennials.

  19. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 9:49 am

    The housing market won’t crash for one simple reason…historically, that occurrence is a very low probability event.

    First, definitions would help, no? If we use ‘crash’ to mean 20% down in a short period how many times has that happened in the past century?

    A prediction of ‘no housing crash’ is betting for the odds-on favorite horse to win the race. Betting on the favorite – or against the longshot – doesn’t make one a genius. It’s not controversial nor intellectually rigorous. It’s simple common sense.

    The author all but acknowledges this view in his lead-in to his article (below) where basic skepticism is palpable…no charts or supporting material necessary…

    “Following the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of people came around to the idea that housing crashes were normal. Everyone either read Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short or saw the movie version…Eventually housing prices have to crash, right? Anything is possible…”

    Yes, anything is possible. More importantly though what is probable….

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 9:56 am

    Be a man and say it was a good call. It’s not like I wasn’t specific. Gave the exact years, years out, at a time when it seemed impossible. Let me see you make a call like that…

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 9:57 am

    And I was derided and called an idiot for it…so much so, that I began to question myself. Glad I stuck to my call.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:00 am

    And if it was common sense…why was I getting so much shit for my calls on this blog? Laughed at on a regular basis.

  23. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:11 am

    20 percent gain in housing costs in a year is unprecedented, and I don’t think one can say after that rise, that it could fall just as much.

    – Millenials are the biggest demographic, but does that mean they all want to buy single family homes in the suburbs?

    – There is a housing shortage, in some parts of the country, but it is a shortage now, will it continue to be this way? A shortage of new homes being built vs a shortage of existing homes, are 2 different things. The older ring suburbs and beyond are filled with senior citizens, who will eventually move or pass on.

    – No one wants to sell now, but that of course can change.
    – Higher interest rates are already crimping demand, we are at 5 percent now, we could easily go to 7 percent in a couple of years.
    – Fed s reckless interest rate policies inflated asset prices including real estate, saying the rise in prices is all based on demand is simply wrong.
    – WFH remote is playing out and that will impact real estate, and demand in some areas that claim they require a premium due to location.
    – The birth rate and family formation rate is at historic lows and continuing to decline. Less children less families, less demand for suburban single family homes.
    – Consumer debt levels are rising again.
    – In spite of stock market gains, savings in retirement accounts are still low.
    – Soft landing while possible not probable as history shows.
    – Inflation will be with us for quite sometime.

  24. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:18 am

    “NJ Judge gets reprimanded for being honest.”

    Glanced at it, TY for that post. I’ll look more closely. Hope his actions are of one taking a principled stance against a broken system and not just an example of the laziness embedded within….If the former, he should be supported.

    There really needs to be a vocal network in this State to support and foster change in the entirely dysfunctional ‘family court’ system. Problem is, much like subsistence indentured farmers, once in the system one is left with little time or reward for challenging it. Those most adept and experienced in promoting change are least incentivized or capable of doing so…..

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:25 am

    If I remember correctly, since I refinanced my 15 year at 2.75% in 2015, weren’t rates low then? Why didn’t it create a boom in housing? Asking for a friend.

    “– Fed s reckless interest rate policies inflated asset prices including real estate, saying the rise in prices is all based on demand is simply wrong.”

  26. Chicago says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:25 am

    Left: but you are the one arguing that FB isn’t a piece of baktag.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:31 am

    No, it will not continue as deflation is the future problem. Demographics says no. There is no giant group to replace the millennial buyers once they dry up. So houses will stagnate till the millennials hit the next stage of buying in their life cycle. That’s way too far to make any type of predictions.

    For this decade: 2024 will be the start of the mania stage and it should pop in 2026. Yes, this run up is only beginning. This economy is going to roar this decade with housing driving it. Remember, that was part of my thesis for roaring 20s 2.0…millennials buying houses will drive the economy. When people buy houses, they make a ton of other purchases to fill said house. Why do you think demand for appliances is through the roof.

    – There is a housing shortage, in some parts of the country, but it is a shortage now, will it continue to be this way? A shortage of new homes being built vs a shortage of existing homes, are 2 different things. The older ring suburbs and beyond are filled with senior citizens, who will eventually move or pass on.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:33 am

    Let me know when NYC pricing drops.

    – WFH remote is playing out and that will impact real estate, and demand in some areas that claim they require a premium due to location.

  29. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:36 am

    3b, not disagreeing, and the ramp on the far right of the chart below is disconcerting (although I would like to see it on a log scale) but….

    Would you say it is more or less likely based on recent history that (i) housing values will decline by 20% over the next year, (ii) a US president will be assassinated, or (iii) a worldwide pandemic will kill six million?

    Hint: Even during the real estate bubble induced GFC the peak to trough value decline over the course of years touched but did not break 20% down….

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

    Possibility vs. probability…..

    Oh, and for those who may argue the Fed’s data set of 60 years isn’t a large enough historical sample size and we should go back a century or more recall McKinley was assassinated in 1901 and the Spanish flu killed 50 million in 1918…..Still wanna bet?

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:36 am

    Again, this is a long time off. Too difficult to make a prediction this far out. I do agree with your position, but again, can’t make a call as to what happens 20 years out. Maybe more immigrants come? Maybe people stop living with multiple families under one roof? Maybe people own multiple homes. It’s too difficult to assess, but one thing is for sure, that population trend should lead to a major battle with deflation is the population stops growing.

    – The birth rate and family formation rate is at historic lows and continuing to decline. Less children less families, less demand for suburban single family homes.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:40 am

    This is not sustainable. They are battling deflation. They will lower the rates as soon as inflation declines. It’s why I love buying high growth stocks now. The companies are good high growth companies, but the environment is not kind to high growth right now because of inflation/interest rates. Computer algo’s automatically act on this movement. Punishing the cathie woods of the world. It will change though. And when it does, will be like a rocket ship taking off. Can’t stop innovation…it’s inevitable.

    – Higher interest rates are already crimping demand, we are at 5 percent now, we could easily go to 7 percent in a couple of years.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:42 am

    How is it not demand driven? Too many people want a house at the same time. There are not enough. So they get into bidding wars driving up the price. Simple as that. The Fed wishes they could control the housing market, but they can’t. Demographics owns the market.

    – Fed s reckless interest rate policies inflated asset prices including real estate, saying the rise in prices is all based on demand is simply wrong.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:43 am

    Let’s hope so…deflation is ugly.

    – Inflation will be with us for quite sometime.

  34. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:44 am

    Left: I honestly don’t know. As for your scenarios I would say the decline in housing prices the most probable.

    When you have an unprecedented rise, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe you could have an unprecedented fall. Once something is unprecedented then it becomes quite difficult in my view to say the opposite of the unprecedented could happen as well. I am simply not smart enough to say definitely. That said , I think we are in for a nasty recession, unfortunately it’s the only way to clean up the excess and recklessness of the past decade plus.

    Meanwhile, the other factors I mentioned will continue to play out, and are not years away, and in fact have been playing out well before the pandemic.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:48 am

    Just remember, when demographics send housing into a bear market: what does the fed do? That’s right. They lower rates. Does it help create a booming market, no, all it does is prevent it from totally crashing from lack of demand. The Fed has an impact on the market, but it’s not as much you make it out to be. At the end of the day, demand is king. Therefore, demographics matter. Too bad nobody pays attention to it for some reason. It’s wild.

  36. Chicago says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:49 am

    3b / left: Housing data is messy, lacks transparency, and has huge dispersion. Real estate is local and crashes will be local. Screw the demographics. One thing that will certainly happen is the market for second homes will be clubbed like a baby seal.

  37. Old realtor says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:51 am

    Remember where NJ housing market was in Early 2020? Suburban locations, particularly high end were flat or drifting sideways on value. Interest rates were still low. Pandemic is the driver of change in the equation between them and now. Nothing goes up in an endless straight line. More than a decade since last pullback and coming off 2 years of unprecedented appreciation, my bet is the market cools off or worse.

  38. Chicago says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:51 am

    Pumps. 23 posts in the last 2 hours and you are 15 of them. Fucking back off

  39. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:58 am

    Old: You are always a voice of reason when it comes to real estate, and I especially value your opinion as it’s your field and you have spent years in it. That makes all the difference in the world in determining whose comments are of real value. Thank you.

  40. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:22 am

    chi/old/3b, I’m certainly not arguing locally values will go up from here near term or even be static…in fact, full disclosure and money-where-my-mouth is, I just disposed of my last NJ property recently, leaning on my attorney hard on timing and taking a concession or two to get it done timely because I specifically did not want the near term exposure…

    I think we are in agreement…in my (usual) long winded way by example I subscribe to your guy’s (usual) more succinctly stated views….all real estate is local and hyperlocal in the case of major metro markets, more marginal properties will be more exposed including second homes, the probability locally is more likely down to sustained flat until underlying economic support for prices are clarified, and the slope of the ascent line in prices this time is unusual and potentially increases the likelihood for a more pronounced decline than not.

    Bottom line, grand pronouncements on values in general are bunk.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:28 am

    The pandemic does not force millennials to start a family and move to the suburbs. You think what you want, but all the pandemic did was to increase the speed at which they act on it.

    Again, you think what you want, but it’s laughable that so many think the pandemic is responsible for millennials moving to the burbs for their family. No one, unless they are rich, wants to raise their family in the city. That’s what the burbs are for.

    That’s why the burbs were dying. There was no huge demographic group of buyers to replace the boomers till now. They were all living their single life in the city or mom’s house.

    Old realtor says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:51 am
    Remember where NJ housing market was in Early 2020? Suburban locations, particularly high end were flat or drifting sideways on value. Interest rates were still low. Pandemic is the driver of change in the equation between them and now. Nothing goes up in an endless straight line. More than a decade since last pullback and coming off 2 years of unprecedented appreciation, my bet is the market cools off or worse.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:33 am

    Yea, well, he was wrong on nyc bottom in 2020. Only fast and I called that. He also disagreed on the north jersey housing being a complete value from 2017-2019. But the guy who got all that correct brings no value. Got it.

    3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:58 am
    Old: You are always a voice of reason when it comes to real estate, and I especially value your opinion as it’s your field and you have spent years in it. That makes all the difference in the world in determining whose comments are of real value. Thank you.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Final flush of the market? Hopefully will get to buy back in with my 401k when it finally bottoms. Nasdaq 12k the bottom?

  44. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 12:17 pm

    WTF? This thing hasn’t even started, but that said, the headline indexes (when did the use of the term “indeces” become obsolete?) may not get get knocked heavily. Instead, we are going to get massive reallocations. We are already well into THAT process. You better have more than a story. You better have real numbers to back it up or you will be stoned (with rocks in NJ mind you), caned, whipped, and then throttled.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 12:07 pm
    Final flush of the market? Hopefully will get to buy back in with my 401k when it finally bottoms. Nasdaq 12k the bottom?

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 12:28 pm

    Chi,

    I’m in the camp that value and commodities are becoming a bubble or are already in a bubble themselves that will get popped. I’m not saying I’m correct, just what I think. They all abandoned high growth and went into stage 3 or stage 4 companies that make money but are done growing. Eventually the market is going to want growth in a low yield environment. Just my thought process, not saying I’m correct.

    Also, I don’t know what the bottom will be, this very well just might be getting started. I will wait to see if the indexes drop significantly more, but might just take the 10 or 15% more drop and be done with it. Not chase more after that. Not really sure, have to see how it plays out. But a 15% drop from here would be a huge win in my book for the 401k. Might just take it and not get greedy.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 12:48 pm

    Thought this was worth sharing.

    “I’m as responsible for it as anyone, but I wonder if the way people think about “Millennial vs Baby Boomer” cultural fights is really college grads vs non-college grads, and that will be more clear after November.”

    “The “Millennials moving to cities” thing too. It wasn’t “Millennials,” it was young college grads.”

    https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1517505612841631744?s=21&t=pRWVcM1VViJQf-tFuO3byw

  47. BRT says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:19 pm

    Final flush of the market? Hopefully will get to buy back in with my 401k when it finally bottoms. Nasdaq 12k the bottom?

    lol, that’s why you converted to cash? On the expectation that the Nasdaq goes from 14k to 12k.

  48. No One says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:22 pm

    The only good thing about this inflation is that the inflation-adjusted compensation of Wayne-based public school teachers is falling.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:28 pm

    I saw trouble on the horizon and bailed. I had no expectations of where it would go, I only knew it would go down.

    BRT says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:19 pm
    Final flush of the market? Hopefully will get to buy back in with my 401k when it finally bottoms. Nasdaq 12k the bottom?

    lol, that’s why you converted to cash? On the expectation that the Nasdaq goes from 14k to 12k.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:29 pm

    Might be a blessing so that people like you and jim stop crying about teacher compensation. If you guys make so much money, why are you so mad at teacher compensation is the big question.

    No One says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:22 pm
    The only good thing about this inflation is that the inflation-adjusted compensation of Wayne-based public school teachers is falling.

  51. No One says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:38 pm

    I sense that a ghost walked through the forum but I didn’t see or hear anything.
    Probably just a figment of my imagination.

  52. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    A whole generation on Wall Street is going to witness their first 50 bp increase; and more to come.

  53. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:59 pm

    This MTG hearing is nuts. Sad thing is the consensus is that the Judge will let her skate.

    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1517537711535493120

    MTG: I haven’t said that.
    Lawyer: Let’s go to the video!
    MTF: Oh no…wait!

    Funny how rapidly lies change when you’re under oath instead of some BS rally.

  54. crushednjmillenial says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:07 pm

    If man-made, carbon-driven global warming is an existenial problem for humanity, then why isn’t carbon capture pushed along with renewables.

    If sea level rise is a problem, then why isn’t making the costs for the process of reclaiming land cheaper enough that we add enough land to Antarctica to counter-act the sea level rise (glacial ice stays frozen easier on land – Antarctica has been frozen glaciers for 40M+ years but the north pole has frozen glaciers sometimes and not others over that time period).

  55. crushednjmillenial says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:14 pm

    I remain stunned that a company like Disney would take a social-political stance.

    It just seems that if I am a Disney manager or shareholder, I do not want for 10-20% of the USA to have some aversion to buying my product. Same with NIKE. I can’t see the business upside – Michael Jordan agreed “Republicans buy sneakers, too”, right? Further, isn’t there a wider-open door for shareholders lawsuits compared to stating something like “Disney stands for the dignity of all people, but as a company we try to avoid taking a public stance on social issues and defer to the people and the politicians they elect to represent them.”

    It’s easy to imagine regular people aligned with the populist right to refuse to take their kids to Disney World, to tell their 7-year olds “No, we can’t go see Frozen 3 in theatres because Disney is a bad company”. 50% gay characters – what? – doesn’t Disney derive billions from conservative parts of the world (Middle East, Eastern Europe, secondary cities in Asia, etc), so how does this accrue to the bottom line? Same with sneakers – maybe a parent can’t control what sneakers a 16-year old buys, but my toddlers will not wear Nike sneakers because of its support of Kapernick.

  56. Libturd says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:15 pm

    Where’s Libturd?

    Don’t ask. Sometimes, when it rains, it pours. I’m about three quarters of the way done with my ark. That’s with a single a.

    Will report more tonight, but Fast Eddie’s pool issues are like a drop in my bucket of afterbirth.

    On the housing crash? I did the math for homes in our neck of the woods. If interest rates go up another 2%, demand will dry up with the price inducing shortage. What did Awesomah Powahl Just say? Double increase possible? Told you all inflation was “out of control.” Businesses are just starting to raise prices to try and cover wages which can’t keep up with runaway inflation. When did I say the sh1t would hit the fan? End of April? Oops.

  57. crushednjmillenial says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:18 pm

    If I understand correctly, solar panels to power one’s home never made financial sense (payback was 20 years, even after government subsidies, assuming the panels get to that age). Now, if inflation keeps going hot for a while, I’m guessing the ROI’s for these things might be getting pretty good.

    People who bought durables in 2019 might do very well, as it turns out. Congrats to anyone who positioned ahead of this.

  58. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:20 pm

    2021 was the year to book comp. 2022 is the year that snot-nosed analysts get kicked to the street wishing they had the option to complain about a 105 hour week.

    3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 1:43 pm
    A whole generation on Wall Street is going to witness their first 50 bp increase; and more to come.

  59. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    Lib: Good analysis as always. I would add I don’t think some people realize how significant a 50 bp rise in rates is. It’s a game changer, and I believe there will be more. Also, the Fed put crap is over, it’s one thing to have it when inflation is low, but when it’s out of control Ike it is now, the put is gone. We are going into a recession, and it’s going to be a hard landing, and unfortunately there will be casualties. But, we are long over due for a reset, to clean up the excesses that have been in this economy for years. The younger generations will be better for it.

  60. No One says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    If climate catastrophists were serious, they’d have been pushing hard for nuclear energy for the past 20 years, arguing that the risks of radiation/accidents, etc are limited and manageable with increased public spending on storage that still is infinitesimal compared to what they want to spend on assorted fairy power sources and mandate via regulation.
    But most hate nuclear power, for various mystical reasons. And also because with lots of nuclear power, there’d be no justification for green “experts” to take regulatory control of the entire society and economy. Which is what they want most of all. Obedience from earth-sinning humanity.

  61. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:26 pm

    It is a company of creative types that is headquartered in southern California. They couldn’t afford to be neutral without being blackballed by the artistic community. The strategic differentiating factor about Disney is content. If they lose the talent, the well runs dry. Sure they have created trouble, but it only hurts their stock price, it doesn’t create an existential crisis if they went all Chris Rock channeling W. “fuck them faggots”.

    crushednjmillenial says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:14 pm
    I remain stunned that a company like Disney would take a social-political stance.

  62. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:29 pm

    Chgo: Well they won’t be getting the big bucks like they were, and deals will be drying up.

  63. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:37 pm

    File under “the shit going on behind the scenes”:

    Multiple inquiries over the last week from people who had been in contact with me for various reasons over the years, but never brought assets. All of a sudden I think people’s service providers really fucked it up. But we aren’t done yet.

    I just get the feeling 2023 will be a big year for me bringing on new clients.

    There is a lot going on, but the move in fixed income really is hitting home.

    I hope I don’t get burned too bad myself. My inflation hedges are working until they simply just don’t. I hope we revert to historic norms of the Fama-French variety, because instinctively that’s how I want to play it.

  64. Fast Eddie says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:39 pm

    But most hate nuclear power, for various mystical reasons. And also because with lots of nuclear power, there’d be no justification for green “experts” to take regulatory control of the entire society and economy.

    We all know it but most muppets can’t be bothered to resist. We were talking about climate change this morning in certain circles. Everywhere you turn in NJ they’re building mega structures. It’s tragic. Anyway, they want you to run and buy a $60,000 electric car that needs materials raked from the earth to build batteries and mega tons of coal and gas to produce the electricity to power these vehicles. Never mind disposal, byproduct waste and collateral damage, that will be something AOCs grandchildren need to address. Kick the can, make money, claim tragedy, rinse and repeat.

  65. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    Very few things get caught in the filter after grim’s fix, but I guess the equation for the Fama-French 5 factor model does. I was getting all geeked up. What a letdown…..

  66. Trick says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:46 pm

    The housing mark will still be on the incline this season, people who missed out the last two years are still geared to buy. Houses aren’t lasting a few days out by us, but I think after the numbers soak in this winter there may be a slow down next spring. Just my thoughts.

  67. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    “A whole generation on Wall Street is going to witness their first 50 bp increase; and more to come.”

    Some of these charts are crazy…for names that have real underlying businesses (even if some are troubled)….pull up Z, PYPL, etc. and zoom out to 2018…Adjusted my PYPL/FB positions again over last couple days, taking some profits on calls and re-establishing put writes lower for credit…not sure exactly where b/e is as no one program calculates that automatically (need to do my spreadsheets over the weekend) but around 150 on FB and 60 on PYPL…wanted 20% or so room going into each earnings next week and Fed thereafter…I am so happy this isn’t the first time around the block for me…proper sizing and risk management is so important….

    “17 days Pumpkin-free”

  68. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:01 pm

    Interesting article in the WSJ entitled what if the optimal time in the office is 2 days rather than 3. In a nutshell and according to various sources quoted, more and more companies who insisted on 3 days in the office are going to 2 days in the office.

    Additionally, some companies are never going back to the office. Additionally, companies who demand 3 days or full time in the office are more stressed and less productive than their 3 day hybrid/ remote colleagues.

    The article noted that some companies that were adamant about 3 days in the office are reevaluating that requirement. As well the article notes that Amazon which was adamant about in office for employees is changing, and noted in closing they even Jamie Dimon of JPM is “ softening” his views from his initial stance last April.

  69. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Left: Some don’t remember real markets, with real risk, and real volatility. All they know is the Fed fake market of zero rates and massive asset inflation .

    Mark everything 2o bp! No bid!! Remember those days well.

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:06 pm

    Only people shooting themselves in the foot are Florida politicians hell bent on going back to old times. New generation has no problems with gay people or whatever gender you are. They simply don’t give a f/k. So disney is playing it correctly. If they didn’t, they would end up in trouble in the future.

    crushednjmillenial says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:14 pm
    I remain stunned that a company like Disney would take a social-political stance.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:09 pm

    Yes, the stock market will get shot down in the short term. I will tell you what won’t get shot down because of the rates…housing. At worst, it will stagnate till the fed turns dovish.

    I explained it to you as simple as I could before, but you refuse to acknowledge it. These millennials want to live in a house in good locations. There are not enough. A recession might stop them from buying, but it won’t stop them from wanting a house. Every year, new millennials jump into the market. It’s not going anywhere, but up once the Fed goes dovish.

    3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 2:22 pm
    Lib: Good analysis as always. I would add I don’t think some people realize how significant a 50 bp rise in rates is. It’s a game changer, and I believe there will be more. Also, the Fed put crap is over, it’s one thing to have it when inflation is low, but when it’s out of control Ike it is now, the put is gone. We are going into a recession, and it’s going to be a hard landing, and unfortunately there will be casualties. But, we are long over due for a reset, to clean up the excesses that have been in this economy for years. The younger generations will be better for it.

  72. grim says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:10 pm

    Florida Putin won’t last too much longer. It’s about time they found a dead male prostitute overdosed on meth in his hotel room.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:24 pm

    Hell of a call. Well done.

    “When did I say the sh1t would hit the fan? End of April? Oops.”

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:28 pm

    I’ll believe it when I see it. These same people claimed suburbs were dead, and you kept listening to them.

    Understand the people writing this pro WFH articles are not the owners, they are workers. And they want to wfh, so they are trying to convince business owners that it is in their best interest when really it is not.

    Again, I dare you to take your hard earned money and put your money where your mouth is. Go start a remote business in an office based business. Please do it. I dare you. I’m sure your workers will love you…just don’t cry when the company sucks over the long-term.

    3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:01 pm

  75. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:59 pm

    “I remain stunned that a company like Disney would take a social-political stance”

    Me too. Boycotts rarely materialize for long or have meaningful impact, instead I think the main issue is the hit to Disney’s long term franchise and its ‘moral authority’. Much harder to measure, but equally if not more important.

    I also think a knock on effect will also be to move more moderates and center-left to a reasonable populist platform…I’ve had more than one conversation with people I would consider dead center liberal prompted by Disney that basically went something like “I used to think you righties were paranoid nuts, but talk to me”.

    Disney got used for a far left political agenda…in yet another effort to control and indoctrinate the far left tried to frame their over reach as a gay rights issue and Disney’s new corporate office got hoodwinked…buying in hook, line, and sinker and seriously alienating a not insignificant portion of their base. They are stuck, and have permanently tainted Disney’s values in the eyes of many. And, given their truly poor corporate management of this issue from the start, they have no easy way out.

  76. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 4:21 pm

    Left:I agree , more centrists, moderates are going to be pushed right and reluctantly, as they feel they have no other choice. It’s clear in my mind that the crazies have taken over the Dem party, as the crazies have done the same in the Republican with the Trump lunatics . The question now is which crazy do you go with? The radical left who is pushing this gender identity narrative that impacts a tiny segment of the population? I saw something the other day, where a transgender Professor said it’s out of control and that in some social media circles young people who may have issues with their identity are being encouraged to pursue changing their gender, when perhaps they should not be.

    She said something to the effect that it is being pushed as a lifestyle choice, rather than something serious.

    My issue with the Fla don’t say gay narrative is that it simply was not true, it was a lie, yet still pushed as the truth.

    I am shocked that parents whatever their political affiliation is would agree that sex education and subsets like gender identity and all the various labels should be taught on an age appropriate basis, and done in stages or like one building block at a time.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 4:25 pm

    Simple as this. Progressives are the future and conservatives are the past. That’s why conservatives eventually always die over time, while progressives always end up being the future.

    Going against gays is suicide, the young generations accept it just like the gender issues. Disney is playing this correctly in the hunt for future revenue.

  78. BRT says:
    April 22, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    Disney taking political stances and pushing agenda’s is beyond stupid. It already backfired massively on them with Star Wars. But looking back, do we need to know the sexual orientation or the gender preference of the Genie from Alladin?

  79. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    BRT: Agreed. And the left keeps pushing its anti gay. It has nothing to do with being anti gay.

    17 days enjoying the blog again.

  80. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 4:56 pm

    The devastation of Mariupol is absolutely unbelievable. It looks to be almost completely destroyed. Russian general states Russia s plan is to annex all of eastern and southern Ukraine and extend their border to Moldova. The Ukrainians will lose their entire coast.

  82. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    “The question now is which crazy do you go with?…My issue with the Fla don’t say gay narrative is that it simply was not true, it was a lie, yet still pushed as the truth…I am shocked that parents whatever their political affiliation is would agree that sex education…”

    Agree. Best case on ‘which crazy’ is that Trump gets knocked out by a suit from NYAG or otherwise, and a fresher face grabs the mantle of reasonable populist on the R side.

    The lie that the bill was somehow anti-gay is exactly what I was referencing…no one I know has an issue with another’s sexual orientation, who the fuck cares if someone is gay? Likewise, no one I know would agree to have a stranger discuss genitalia and sex with an eight year old.

    A new CEO at a bullshit developmental stage company would have been prepared with a better response than this Fortune 500 CEO at Disney…FFS, off the top of my head “Disney has a long history and key tenets of inclusiveness and family values. Unfortunately, this bill furthers neither of those principles and therefore we do not support its passage.”

    In other words we have your back mom and dad and if pushed on a ‘non-answer’ by the gay community have in the back of your pocket some BS backwoods law – I am sure there are plenty of them down there – limiting gay rights and move the conversation to the benefits of revoking that instead.

    Control, don’t be controlled by, the narrative. And deflect.

    The mainstream gay community will take it as a win, mom and dad are happy and if they have a problem with homosexuality they probably don’t even see the subtextual nod to the gay community.

    The fringe who want to talk genitalia with eight year olds? Let them picket out front of Orlando…who cares, Disney’s addressed the concerns of 90+% of its community, straight and gay…

    Instead, they placated the small number of politically active wingnuts who could care less about Disney and will soon move on while alienating a good swath of their base.

    Lose-lose.

  83. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    Disney:

    Youth are the employees vs Old Goats who are the customers.

    Youth aren’t racist, much more open minded.

    Disney’s workers pushed the issue. For better or worse they won out.

    Young people, especially the young women I work with, prefer mixed race, even talk about only having mixed race babies.

    Old goat women where I work freak out when they hear this. The thought of their young white daughter dating anything other than white creeps them out.

    For better or worse, it’s the changing of the guard. Hard to say how well Disney will fare but long term they just might come out ahead when boomer has turned to carbon. Just gonna be expensive getting them there.

    One thing it did point out is how the politicians liked to be bribed in Florida just like everywhere else.

  84. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:10 pm

    I think Disney will still be attractive to plenty. Even if half their “base” left there is still enough clientele to fill that place.

    In fact, a few less people there might actually make the experience that much better for those who go there in the future.

  85. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:19 pm

    LW,
    My judge had ZERO experience in Family Court. None, Zero, Zip.

    Corporate attorney that was appointed by Christie.

    I was a thorn in her side. She is no longer a family court judge.

    Many judges don’t want that specialty. It’s the equivalent of being a proctologist.

  86. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:21 pm

    Phoenix: I don’t think that is completely accurate. And I think it misses the point on this topic. Discussions of gender identity and gender parts and sex education in general should be age appropriate, simply based on the ability of a child to process the information. Why not teach algebra to kindergarten kids?

    As for the youth, definitely more open minded, and that’s a good thing, but they are not a monolithic. And many don’t engage in the sexual promiscuity that a lot of boomers did. They also know when they are being played.

    As for the interracial babies and marriage. Some of the biggest racists I know identity as proud liberals , and are vocal about it. But, they would be horrified if their son or daughter was dating a minority kid. Some proud Republicans too of course, but the difference I find is they don’t deny it, same with affordable housing many Republicans I know will tell you straight up they don’t want it on their town, as it will destroy the neighborhood. The liberals will tell you that of course they want affordable housing but it just does not make sense in their town and will read off a shopping list of why it should not be in their town. Bottom line, they don’t want it in their town for the same reason the aforementioned Republicans don’t want it in their town; they believe it will run the neighborhood. They just won’t tell you that.

  87. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:26 pm

    Phoenix, I told you that from the beginning. Family Court is the bottom rung of the judicial ladder. Any judge in that role has one goal, to GTFO and move up. Much more a priority than the ‘equitable’ disposition of any case.

    Regarding Disney and crowds, lol. I’ll have to take your word. Never went there as a kid, had no desire. Didn’t see any reason to take my kids there either so I’ve never been inside the gates of the Magic Kingdom. Nor on a cruise either. Just not my speed.

  88. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:26 pm

    Left: I would take a moderate centrist from either the Democrats or the Republicans. I just want competence and sanity, and something positive to get things accomplished that will benefit Americans as a whole. It’s a pipe dream, but that’s what I would like to see.

    If it’s Biden- Trump again I won’t be voting.

  89. BRT says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:28 pm

    Young people, especially the young women I work with, prefer mixed race, even talk about only having mixed race babies.

    It’s a fad through subliminal messaging IMO. Every single commercial is a mixed race, but completely absent white males. Only white women with other races. The makers of these commercials are likely white people choosing their races each commercial like lego pieces. It’s just odd and racist in it of itself. I say this a child of mixed race origin and someone in a mixed race marriage. I think it’s great that people finally crossed the threshold en masse and are willing to step out of their boundaries in that regard. But pursuing a mixed race and deliberately avoiding your own is equally discriminatory. It’s like these people are closet racists but they just found a way to be racist without controversy because it’s against their own. This differs highly from maybe someone who is like “I have a thing for Asian girls”.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:29 pm

    This was a good post that I missed. Think Chi nails it on this. Millennials aren’t in the second homes market. That is all driven by boomers. Said it many times on this blog, stay the f away from boomer driven markets unless you want to end up like the suburbs from 2006 to 2017. There will not be enough buyers to support pricing that boomers drove up. Just look at the Florida coast line, it’s f’ed. What millennial is going to have 7 million for a beach house in Florida?

    Chicago says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:49 am
    3b / left: Housing data is messy, lacks transparency, and has huge dispersion. Real estate is local and crashes will be local. Screw the demographics. One thing that will certainly happen is the market for second homes will be clubbed like a baby seal.

  91. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:30 pm

    Away from Disney and the politics , we have been there 3 times. I think it is the most over priced overrated entertainment/ park out there. I know people that have been there 15 or 20 times!! Long after their kids are grown. To each his own, but I don’t see the appeal. When my guys were little I preferred Hershey Park. Sane, civilized and no hype.

  92. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:43 pm

    “I would take a moderate centrist from either the Democrats…”

    Me too. But they need to be a ‘reasonable populist’ or if people have a problem with the populist label then ‘anti-establishment’.

    No one of the Romney, McCain, Dole, etc ilk.

    Dems? I’d vote Tulsi Gabbard.

    Just be rational and not bought and paid for….is that really a bar too high for the leader of the free world?

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    Just wanted to add this to my earlier post to make it more clear.

    Conservative ideas and values eventually die and are replaced by what were once progressive ideas. This happens over and over. Remember, conservatives hated Elvis when he came out.

  94. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 5:57 pm

    BRT,
    Racist, fad, or choice doesn’t matter. Once the kid is born due to their “choice” it is here.

    I don’t think it’s racist myself. You like what you like. Humans have characteristics-what turns you on, what makes you desire someone, it’s very personal.

    And pretty much, it’s the woman who decides who she is going to bed, not so much the other way around.

    Subliminal messaging? Blame that on advertisers that just want your money. Women control 80 percent of spending, they are the primary targets.

    Good old Edward Bernays- Uncle of Sigmond Freud. Knew how to manipulate women into smoking cigarettes, making them think they were stronger by lighting up.

    All I can tell you is that when it comes to young nurses-and I work with plenty, eat with them, talk with them, it’s all fair game.

    Maybe it’s because they see so many men naked every day and know what they like.

    Variety is the spice of life. The young ones are so much fun to be around, not grumpy, and have less hang ups than the old boomer women. I know many will turn sour in 20 years like their counterparts, that is sad, but I wish them all the best as they are some fantastic people to spend your day with. Being with the grumpy older ones would be like dying in a nursing home.

  95. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:05 pm

    Left: Is that really a barrier for the leader of the free world? Apparently it is?

  96. Jim says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 3:24 pm
    Hell of a call. Well done.

    “When did I say the sh1t would hit the fan? End of April? Oops.”

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2022 at 10:40 am
    No one knows for sure, but this looks like a head fake. I still think market will reach new lows sooner than later.

    You make so many predictions you have to be right sometime, besides being annoying you really are wrong more than right. Thats the truth, keep buying ARK.
    Lucky for you your a teacher with union protection, you wouldn’t be lost in the real world.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    Was just thinking. With all the problems going on, why didn’t the dems just invest in the future. They should have just let trump have the second term and destroy the Republican party. Maybe that’s what they were trying to do by putting up Biden, but he somehow won. Lol

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Jim,

    What was I wrong on besides ark? No idea why you are jealous of a teachers job. It’s really not that great. This is not 1990. Do you know how much money I’m losing to inflation in this dead end job? I’m forced to pay into a pension that I’m prob not going to get. I have to pay massive amounts for my healthcare, but yea, tell me again how I’m so lucky.

    The teachers in the 90s didn’t pay into the pension. They didn’t pay for healthcare. Yet, you have the nerve to pick on teachers today. Get a life.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    You have the young generation paying high healthcare costs because of demographics. F’ing massive boomer bloc has to be supported by a smaller group at the bottom to lay for these health care costs. That’s why it went up. The biggest demographic group started using healthcare more and more as they aged. Now there are so many, the costs are insane. And the younger groups are stuck paying for it.

    So remember this when you bitch about paying taxes for teachers. Just like you don’t like paying for that, I don’t like paying for your healthcare costs.

  100. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    Phoenix: I agree that there appears to be a lot of grumpy boomer women. I know quite a few, and for various reasons can’t always avoid them,( friends spouses, family members, friends siblings etc)

    And some of the ones I know are nasty and can be evil. They are not happy unless they stir the pot up, and then pretend to be angels. I have seen it in action multiple times; it’s finely orchestrated. I also find boomer women grumpier and as I noted meaner. Generalities of course, but my observations.

    My wife always says women are women s worst enemies; she of course won’t win feminist of the year award with that attitude, but, she has been saying that for years.

  101. Jim says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 6:14 pm
    Jim
    The teachers in the 90s didn’t pay into the pension. They didn’t pay for healthcare. Yet, you have the nerve to pick on teachers today. Get a life.

    I have a life, your the one who posts ALL the time on this blog, I have business , family and a great life…… you not so much.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    Curios.

    Does anyone doubt Russia still? Does anyone think Ukraine stands a chance? Looks like the plan for Russia was to get access to coastal water. Seems like that’s all they care about for now. So send in shit troops. Sacrifice the pawns to see your enemies capabilities and then act on it. We better be very careful with Russia. F’ing never trust a Russian. The Polish live by that. That might have been Trumps biggest flaw, trusting russians. Asking for trouble.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:20 pm

    Jim,

    In the words of LIL JOHN…yeaaaaa, okayyyy! Lol

    I guess your boy trump had no life…they had to ban him from twitter he tweeted so much.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    I have a great life, but I cry about teachers and their union all day and night.

  105. Phoenix says:
    April 22, 2022 at 7:51 pm

    3b
    The majority are miserable. They have money, take vacations, have houses paid off, but just nasty AF.

    Maybe its just the ones I observe. They can’t sell it to the M.D’s like they could when they were young. The years of flirting never paid off, they had to settle for the men they didn’t want and watch the young ones flourish.

    But then there are a few. Happy, mentally stable, well adjusted. But definitely in the minority.

    I swore I would never date another blond. Down that rabbit hole I am headed.
    Already kicked one gift horse in the mouth. Still regret that.
    I have “what appears as” a nice one to spend time with right now. Actually, incredible.
    Gonna really give this one a chance. If it works or not, she is one classy lady.
    They are rare.

  106. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:01 pm

    Phoenix: I know those , seem to have it all, but still miserable and angry. Good luck with this woman, I hope it all works out for you. The good ones are out there.

  107. 3b says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:03 pm

    Wells Fargo has started laying off people in its home mortgage lending business in various offices around the country.

    And so it begins.

  108. chicagofinance says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:04 pm

    From Exit 117 on GSP to Citifield, just one way, is $30.30 in tolls…… NJTP, GWB, RFK.

  110. Boomer Remover says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:27 pm

    Pumps – stop the rapid fire posting you twitter for brains imbecile. None of your thoughts are original or insightful, dongles to dividends.

    Left/3b – I see you guys posting in the footer about enjoying the blog again. Is there a way to block/filter posters with Grim’s latest update?

  111. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:40 pm

    Pumps – stop the rapid fire posting

    No I think I like this new format. Everyone gets to post. you can skip over posts you don’t want to read and there is less complaints from everyone. Just need left and 3b to back off the line and really stop engaging. The pseudo posting has been called out once. We don’t need a running clock.

  112. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 8:46 pm

    Lots to pick up on in here. That MTG testimony today was lit.
    She will probably skate, but what was teed up today for the Jan6 hearing was awsome.

    Interesting take on her lawyer.

    I have repeatedly written in my published work that Donald Trump has a decades-long history of sharing lawyers with anyone he has committed crimes with to ensure that they do not hurt him. A key moment today was when a Greene lawyer suddenly stood up and said he represents Trump.
    This lawyer was so scared of the possibility Greene would reveal things Trump had said in the days leading up to an insurrection he incited that he tried to claim executive privilege on Trump’s behalf against Greene—who has no such privilege as a member of the legislative branch.
    Many folks are asking me what the remedy is for Greene perjuring herself for *hours* on camera today.

    The answer is actually not so complicated: as this judge can’t credit Greene’s testimony, he must not and should not rule she is eligible for elected office.

    Period, full stop.
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517660292267790337.html

  113. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    “From Exit 117 on GSP to Citifield, just one way, is $30.30 in tolls…… NJTP, GWB, RFK.”

    That’s crazy. I did one trip last week, have EZPass reloaded in $25 increments, didn’t notice how expensive it was until they hit my credit card twice ie. one refill of $25 didn’t cover the trip.

    “Just need left and 3b to back off the line and really stop engaging.”

    Not a chance. Shout it from the rooftops, loud and proud baby. Did not even pause over the oral diarrhea this morning, only noted the extent of it when someone else barked at him to shut up as he was like three quarters of the posts. It is so nice and relaxing, I feel clean again.

    “17 days Pumpkin-free”

  114. leftwing says:
    April 22, 2022 at 9:51 pm

    Also, for anyone else taking a low key Friday night, Billy Strings just started a concert in Austin.

    Anyway, free on Mixlr.

  115. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    Disney is playing this right. DiSantis is playing to the 2024 presidential field and he doesn’t care about the impact. DIS have been dealing with this stuff as they tiptoed around Song of the South.
    I posted years ago that the only way a company can spend money to “do the right thing” when it comes to issues like this is in “defense of the brand” and DIS has deep pockets.
    The letters crowd love DIS for their stance over the last 10-15yrs. The Pride Micky Pins are just the tip of the iceberg. The 20% that dont come will be balanced out by the Letters crowd that do. And the letters crowd have a lot of disposable income.
    As for the rest, if you go you know. There will be a lot from Deep red states that JDGIF.
    My old CEO always pitched DIS as the one company that knows how to do Customer Service.
    You will still see the MAGAs at MK and if you don’t all the better for me. Now my big wish is that if they do boycott, the MAGA realize that Punisher is owned by DIS and stop appropriating it.

  116. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:39 pm

    Watching USFL. I like this.
    Very Technical commentary and lots of mikes on players and sideline.

  117. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:45 pm

    “Does anyone think Ukraine stands a chance?”

    Umm Yes. Spontaneous fires in Russia, thats new. Again I have the call, this is done by June.

  118. Libturd says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:55 pm

    It’s a crazy life.

    Just before leaving for our vacation in paradise in Costa Rica, we broke our contract on the multi when the buyer we chose pulled a quickie. We chose this offer over a higher offer because the buyer said we could leave the certified decommissioned oil tank in the ground if it passed soil testing. I paid $550 and the soil passed. Well the soil testing revealed that part of the oil tank was partially under an extension off the back of the house. For whatever reason, the buyer changed their mind and then said they would only buy the place if the tank was removed. So much for dealing honestly. Well I just paid $600 for two people to jackhammer my back walkway to the driveway and dig a 6 foot hole to figure out exactly where the tank is located. It’s mostly under the house. So this means, to remove the tank, I have to demolish and rebuild the bank entrance to the home. It could be worse. It could have been the bathroom. Nonetheless, it’s going to be a small fortune and I will have an estimate for the tank removal and rear portion of house demo and rebuild on Tuesday. Yeah me. Word of advice to prospective homebuyers, never buy a home with a buried oil tank.

    So in the middle of this house selling madness, the D had a routine MRI to make sure his brain (and spine, which is part of the same system) is still cancer free. We headed down to CHOP (in Philly) Monday night for an 8am report to MRI on Tuesday. The good news is that there was no cancer. The bad news was that his vesicles looked enlarged, meaning his shunt was failing. For those not aware, a brain shunt pumps brain fluid from the brain down a tube inserted just below the skin to the stomach. It sounds gross, but the quantity is so small, the stomach can handle it. Normal brains just absorb the liquid. The resected orange-sized tumor left a pretty large hole in the D’s head and the remaining gap remains mostly a non-absorbing reservoir for fluid. Our timing was extremely lucky as a failing shunt is dangerous. So brain surgery to revise the shunt was scheduled and performed on Wednesday afternoon. Until then, he was watched in the PICU. The surgery was performed and he appeared to be doing just great and was scheduled for a Thursday morning departure if all checked out. I took a train home post surgery since I had to be home for the oil tank exploration as well as had to assign a bunch of work to my friend of the family handyman. Well, Thursday morning, I wake up to a text from Gator which said D just puked at 6am. I knew something was awry since he hasn’t puked in like four years. Sure enough, he puked two more times and was getting so lethargic he couldn’t walk or talk. I rapidly finished my two tasks and was on the Acela back to Philly before 11am. As I arrived back to CHOP at 12:30, the D just returned from his second brain surgery in 24 hours. This revision held (the tube exiting the shunt got clogged). This repeat performance is not uncommon with shunt revisions. So another monitored night in the PICU and we were released around 4pm on Friday. Heck of a way for the D to spend his Spring Break. Gator and I ended up with four days off work when we were only expecting one. On the bright side, we got a great Sicilian pie from a place I had read was supposed to be amazing for it and it truly was. We then passed the infamous Atilis Gym in Bellmawr on our way to 295 north. The unassuming pizza joint is called Topo Gigio and the 12 slice pie was $13 and truly a great slice. Crunchy cracker bottom crunch, with soft doughy flavored top. Just the right amount of cheese and tangy, thick sauce. As good as people say. Shared rest of pie with the D, our other son and our handy man. All were impressed.

    So, in the middle of D’s near seizure experience and our house mess, we are working through our legal case with the Glen Ridge School system for D’s schooling. Think our house problems are a mess, just wait until I am able to share some details on this case. Let’s just say, all of this was supposed to be resolved in 45 days. We are now closing in on three years and it’s still not resolved. If we don’t settle, you’ll all get to hear about it.

    On the bright side, rather than selling the multi without lifting a finger. We are putting some serious elbow grease into making the place much more turnkey and photogenic, focusing mainly on curb appeal. Also, without the tank, we should be able to get a lot more offers. We only had five in total and most required the tank be removed. With no tank, we expect a lot more offers. It should go back on the market the first week in May. It will also show much better with all of the plants in bloom. We have incredibly gardens there and the Spring Bloom brings up a lot of gorgeous growth.

    In other news, Gators Uncle is not doing terribly well healthwise. Just too much going on at the same time.

  119. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:59 pm

    I’d vote Tulsi Gabbard.

    No you wouldn’t. Just like Bernie, if they had made it out of the primaries, the crap would come out and you would be screaming S0cialism.

    “Republican Party is ‘the MAGA party now,’ Biden says after McCarthy audio’s release”

    Again, its not up to my party to move to appease you. Go reclaim your party.

  120. Libturd says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:27 pm

    On many of the topics discussed this week. The Johnny Depp defamation trial is better than Edward Scissorhands. He’s a complete freak, but her steaming turd upon final exit is just legendary.

    On Disney and special tax treatment. It’s a waste of time for DeSantis. Those who love Disney will go regardless of any cause. I too, don’t get it. It’s way overpriced, always too crowded and the rides are generally lame. I find it’s mostly parents who are into it, since it was a highlight of their own childhoods ands kids today just aren’t that impressed by 50 year old automated puppet shows. DeSantis lost my dad’s vote when he fucked the cruise ship operators. Screwing with the tourist tax dollars is almost as stupid as stopping Keystone by the Dems. Finally, these boycotts nearly always backfire. Look at Goya. Their sales exploded from the boycott. It’s like the greatest free advertising ever.

    On stocks, it always comes down to the P/E. Always, always, always. The pros always swing for the fences. Long-term investors know that you score more runs when all of your players are getting on base. Chi, agree whole-heartedly with the return to the Fama French model. Was planning to slowly shift more to the small caps to take advantage. Large caps like to borrow. At these rates, will they want to?

    Pumps, I would pay twice as much as you do, if I received the same level of health care that you do. And you get the great deal for life. The rest of us, we have to work until we are dead for decent healthcare at a decent price. Back on ignore.

    Lots of weed billboards on the turnpike. I’m for it being legal as long as booze is. But get ready for the problems that come with it.

    In other news, teenagers are all hooked on sports betting. Be careful with those credit cards.

  121. Libturd says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:32 pm

    Speaking of teachers, my son’s AP Chem teacher took a job in the private sector about midway through the school year. Not only has he promised to write letters of recommendation for the future college kids, but he’s coming back tomorrow (Saturday), to do an AP exam review for the class ahead of the AP exam. Now that’s a teacher I support. It sucks he quit midway through the academic year, but at least he’s doing the right thing by the kids. The replacement teacher is a train wreck.

  122. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:42 pm

    “Be careful with those credit cards.”

    My issue is my kid with the Amazon Gift cards. But Lib, my kids fake persona, the purchases that show up to the house pale in comparison with what you are going through. Genuinely if there is anything I can do for you let me know.

    Lets start with the easy one, the oil tank. I passed up on a beautiful two family in Rutherford as they would not take the take out of under the driveway. The sale itself was all over the place. It was a divorce situation, with the last kid heading to college and they had also given the tenants in the ground floor a sweetheart rental agreement before the sale.
    Now my buddy was renting Sec 8 in Philly. His crew with the Sawzalls were walking part off the tank through the front door when EPA and building magically showed up. That did not end up well.
    So do it once and do it right.

  123. Libturd says:
    April 22, 2022 at 11:50 pm

    I’m good. Praise my investment savvy. Appreciate the offer though. We’ll be fine. As rough as it is right now, it should all clear out in the coming month or two. Then figure out what college kid is off too and it should be smooth sailing for a while.

  124. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 23, 2022 at 12:07 am

    “our legal case with the Glen Ridge School system”

    I read the judgement, it sucks, but it is what is is.

    BC and CF, I am very familiar with. I used both myself, and would be interesting to compare notes. My advice is” At this point if the district are still talking with you, take the deal. If you can find away to appeal, you will get nothing.

    Gator had my contact details back in the day, but all I have from her is her old employer contacts. Fell free to reach out to Grim for current contact info. Happy to sit down and discuss.

  125. Fabius Maximus says:
    April 23, 2022 at 12:16 am

    as stopping Keystone by the Dems.

    Umm No, This actually made sense

  126. Libturd says:
    April 23, 2022 at 12:58 am

    Appreciate the legal advice. There’s a little more than a decision at this point, but can’t share. Yes, we will take what we can get. Understand THAT part. But there is this year too.

  127. Jim says:
    April 23, 2022 at 4:46 am

    Lib,
    Sorry to hear about all your problems , they all seem pretty complicated just don’t get overwhelmed. I am sure the stress is horrible.
    Dump the multi no matter what you do, I always stayed away from oil tanks, septic systems and knob and tube electric. Plus I made sure all buildings had Natural gas, sewers and city water. Even my multi’s in PA.
    When my son was about 14 he was diagnosed with the same tumors my wife died from, I was more than devastated, literally broke down. Fortunately his was benign, today he is a UPS driver working 10 hour days and the picture of health. I pray you can get through this mess… my heart goes out to you. Be well , be safe. Sometimes life just sucks!

  128. BRT says:
    April 23, 2022 at 8:51 am

    Lib,

    have your son check out classroom site by Dr. O’Malley at Stuyvessant. He’s probably made the best AP Chem prep materials I’ve ever seen. I’ve linked the general chapter materials and his test prep section. More than enough to score that 5 and he can brush up on individual topics easily.

    https://www.omalleychem.info/ap-chem
    https://www.omalleychem.info/ap-chem-test-prep

  129. Libturd says:
    April 23, 2022 at 9:13 am

    Thanks BRT. Will share. Teacher is even bringing bagels.

  130. Ex says:
    April 23, 2022 at 9:19 am

    LOS ANGELES, CA — High prices, homelessness, rising crime and health concerns are taking their toll on the quality of life in Los Angeles County, with a UCLA survey released Friday revealing the lowest level of residents’ overall satisfaction in the survey’s seven-year history.

  131. Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:10 am

    You mean Ukraine done by June? They are now asking for 7 billion a month to keep the war effort going and the country afloat. Who is going to pay? Europe is not opening their coffers to that amount of aid, do they again expect the USA to do it? PUTIN has proven already that he is willing to send tens of thousands of troops to their deaths, and bankrupt every oligarch and every Russian citizen. He won’t go willingly and seems to be as untouchable as Assad is in Syria.

  132. 3b says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:12 am

    Libturd: So sorry to hear about all that is going on right now, with you and your family; especially with your Son. Thankfully, the surgeries went well and he is doing better. The other stuff will eventually be sorted, easier said than done of course. My wife is going through her own he’ll with her siblings and the care of her Mom, and financial issues, including the house. Family can be the worst, I now appreciate what that statement means.

  133. 3b says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:20 am

    Juice: I agree, over by June? No way. Putin is going all in to tame eastern and southern Ukraine, which I assumed was his original intent when he invaded. He will ultimately be successful in spite of the huge cost. Then I assume ongoing gur war for years. Ukraine will loose it’s entire coastline, and a big chunk of territory. The rump state left is heavily damaged and will take years to rebuild.

  134. leftwing says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:32 am

    Lib, you and yours be well. Serious relief that D got through as he did…the rest resolves and the clouds do eventually clear.

    Others say it, you know it, get rid of that fucking multi…it served its purpose and it will be such a mental load off. It’s difficult, but tamp down your best instincts for perfection and take a discount if need be…the purpose of wealth is not to accumulate zeros it’s to buy time, space, or relief when needed. You need it with everything else going on. Use that chit and move on. It’s worth it.

  135. leftwing says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:43 am

    “Ukraine will loose it’s entire coastline, and a big chunk of territory.”

    And a good part of its natural resources, especially the rare earths, depending how far west they draw the map from the Donetsk. A new border at the Dnieper…ouch.

    https://favpng.com/png_view/natural-minerals-ukraine-natural-resource-map-field-png/qFVuhjHW

    “18 days Pumpkin-free”

  136. crushednjmillenial says:
    April 23, 2022 at 11:33 am

    Full text of “Don’t Say Gay Bill” linked below. Short – just a few pages.

    Key provision, in my opinion, states “Classroom instruction . . . on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur in kindergarten through grade 3 or in a manner that is not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students . . . .”

    This is probably not a great hill for the Dems to die on, along with branding parents “domestic t-s”.

    https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2022/1557/BillText/er/PDF

  137. Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 11:54 am

    Car theft gangs are getting bolder now that people are locking their cars more and not leaving keys in them etc. Last night a car theft gang staked out a home nearby for several hours, then walked in front door when it was unlocked and took wallets and keys, homeowner gave chase but was shown a gun.

    News says car thefts are way way way up 30% this year even with some recent arrests. Just remember the police are now prohibited from chasing vehicle thieves, they will issue a BOLO and that is about it.

  138. Ex says:
    April 23, 2022 at 1:00 pm

    Lib, hang tough man
    I cannot imagine.

  139. Hold my beer says:
    April 23, 2022 at 1:11 pm

    Libturd

    Sorry to hear about your rough week. Must be very stressful for you and gator.

  140. BRT says:
    April 23, 2022 at 1:12 pm

    The idea that we keep flooding weapons into that territory will have consequences. Not looking forward to a black market for javelin missiles. That’s probably the goal of the military industrial complex. Arm the. As much as possible to stir up more violence.

  141. Phoenix says:
    April 23, 2022 at 1:15 pm

    What do you want them to do, chase them right into the side of a car full of children?

    Then celebrate and brag about the “justice” when they are arrested and jailed? Gives Americans a hard on putting someone in prison.

    Meanwhile the innocents are mangled for life. Maybe a gork, or never walk again. No way to collect money for healthcare if the criminal is destitute.

    But you got your man! Go for it hero.

  142. Phoenix says:
    April 23, 2022 at 1:18 pm

    Javelins for everyone.

    Meanwhile, on a bridge in Jersey, the pothole is so deep you can see the rebar through the concrete.

    In fact the rebar is so exposed it has cracked as well. Been like that for months.

    85 k for a Javelin, 4.97 for an 80 lb bag of concrete at Lowes.

  143. Juice box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 3:09 pm

    Re : black market for javelin missiles

    Or worse.. stingers

    TWA Flight 800 off Long Island ring a bell?

    “ 100 of more than 700 eyewitnesses interviewed by the FBI described seeing a streak of light move from the Earth leading to an explosion, which seemed to suggest a missile had struck the Boeing 747.”

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=96488&page=1

  144. Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    Nice way to do Op Sec in Ukraine.

    Zelenskyy just announced the Secretary of State is visiting tomorrow.

  145. Grim says:
    April 23, 2022 at 6:36 pm

    Conservatives who want to cancel Disney and dump their DVC timeshare let me know.

  146. Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 7:53 pm

    Lib – Multi is no issue tank was a risk you calculated when you bought it, you knew then the property value would go way up, so all in all nice bet on housing. Heck next to asbestos and mold that is probably the number three issue to walk away from. We all know you will get the cash register rung, soon enough. As far as your family. I can only give one piece of advice and even if you don’t need it, please be sure to take care of yourself along with all the hard work of taking care of everyone else. Make sure to take some time for yourself even it is a 20 minute shower to collect your thoughts and feelings.

  147. Juice Box says:
    April 23, 2022 at 8:53 pm

    Cancel Disney ?

    Not Mr Mouse!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzklw7JtA9o

  148. Phoenix says:
    April 23, 2022 at 9:55 pm

    Well, that didn’t take long-and this is why. I’m sure the victims are going to be overjoyed about the conviction:

    International rugby star is killed and his eight-year-old son is left in critical condition after brutal Houston crash with driver, 16, fleeing cops: Teen motorist has been charged with murder.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10746401/Pedrie-Lannenburg-dead-3-car-crash-Texas-16-year-old-facing-murder-charges.html

  149. libturd says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Thanks for all the kind words all. I did what I always do when sh1t gets crazy. I go into sweat equity mode. After watching the Mets nearly blow it staying up until 1:15am I woke up at 7am and went crazy at the multi. Trimmed all of the hedges. Replaced all of the broken screens in the gazebo. Thirty bags of mulch purchased and spread. Cleaned the crap outta the outside. Replaced the broken fence pickets too. Pulled more vines than Tarzan. Just finished up. Will work there all day tomorrow too.

  150. BRT says:
    April 24, 2022 at 9:36 am

    85 k for a Javelin, 4.97 for an 80 lb bag of concrete at Lowes.

    You’d think for 85k, they would include a mechanism in place that allows us to disable it if it gets into the wrong hands. Same goes for a chopper that costs millions of dollars left in Afgahnistan.

    Or worse.. stingers

    TWA Flight 800 off Long Island ring a bell?

    More recently, we had that Malaysian plane shot down in Ukraine a few years back.

  151. BRT says:
    April 24, 2022 at 9:37 am

    Conservatives who want to cancel Disney and dump their DVC timeshare let me know.

    Are these going up in value now? I remember you used to log on top Ebay 15 years ago and see them offered for 1/2 of list price.

  152. leftwing says:
    April 24, 2022 at 12:20 pm

    My guess is most ‘conservatives’ don’t ‘invest’ in timeshares…..

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