If you have to ask…

From Fortune:

Another housing bubble? ‘We’re skating close to one,’ says Realtor.com economist

This might be the hottest housing market ever recorded. Over the past 12 months, U.S. home prices are up a staggering 19.2%. For comparison, in the years leading into the 2008 housing bust, the biggest 12-month jump was 14.5%.

Heading into 2022, real estate research firms forecasted that the ongoing housing boom would lose some steam and home price growth would decelerate. It hasn’t come to fruition—yet. Actually, if anything, this year it has gotten a bit hotter, with housing inventory on Zillow down 52% from pre-pandemic levels. 

That stubbornly hot housing market now has housing economists flirting with the real estate industry’s most feared word: Bubble.

“We’re not in a housing bubble just yet—but we’re skating close to one if prices continue rising at the current pace,” said George Ratiu, a housing economist at Realtor.com, in an article published last week on the home listing site.

It isn’t just Ratiu. There’s a growing chorus of economists speculating that if home price growth doesn’t abate soon, the housing market could eventually overheat. Or worse: We could wind up in another full-fledged housing bubble. 

Back in March, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas sent a shockwave through the industry after releasing a paper titled Real-time market monitoring finds signs of brewing U.S. housing bubble.” The Dallas Fed researchers were blunt in their assessment: “U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.”

But even if we’re in a housing bubble, the Dallas Fed researchers don’t think it’d be a 2008 repeat. For starters, homeowners are in much better shape now than they were heading into the 2008 meltdown. At the height of the 2000s housing bubble, U.S. households were spending 7.2% of disposable personal income on mortgage debt payments. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, that figure is just 3.8%. In addition, subprime mortgages are less of a worry these days, given the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act outlawed many of the shady loans that plagued the aughts.

“There is no expectation that fallout from a housing correction would be comparable to the 2007–09 global financial crisis in terms of magnitude or macroeconomic gravity. Among other things, household balance sheets appear in better shape, and excessive borrowing doesn’t appear to be fueling the housing market boom,” write the Dallas Fed researchers.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

79 Responses to If you have to ask…

  1. Fast Eddie says:

    I have a feeling that those on the fence about selling are going to look for the exit now as interest rates rise. I’m curious to see the inventory numbers this fall as compared to fall of 2021.

  2. Juice Box says:

    NYC is now seeing revenge of the landlords. There is no rent control when vacancies are low below 5% No more plentiful inventory in better neighborhoods, so so no more groveling landlords lowering the rents to attract people so the rent is too damn high again, as well renters no longer try to trade up to a better neighborhood, they just resign their lease and pay the increase even if it is crazy amount. I have read about young people who got a deal on a nice place a one-bedroom apartment upper west side etc and were only paying $2000 month getting an increase of $800 yes 40 percent.

    So it will be back to roommates again etc for them.

  3. Bystander says:


    Drove by at least 3 open houses out with the boys yesterday. I did not see a single car or person walking in or out. Signs and balloons everywhere. If we know once thing from 2008, the realtor propaganda is the strongest before the collapse. Posting numbers about how great a cash position people are in? Where did those numbers come from? Based on stimulus checks long gone? There is no way income rose to off-set 50% increase in housing costs and now 6% rates. Pure BS.

  4. No One says:

    Who are the people increasingly clamoring to live in dystopian NYC?
    People returning from their failed stint farming?
    There cannot be more people working in the city now vs 3 years ago.

  5. 3b says:

    Juice Those renters can move to Hackensack, to the Jefferson which is slated to open in June. 1 and 2 bedroom apartments with lots of on-site amenities, including a bowling alley. Rents from 2,000 to 4,000. It’s located where the old Bergen Co DPW used to be, right as you head into Hackensack from River Edge on Kinderkamack Rd.

    It’s being marketed as sophisticated city living, combined with suburban tranquility.
    It is a miserable location.

  6. Fast Eddie says:


    Agree. Fat Mary will need to light a few candles and paint a room or two to offset the stench if she wants to get close to her price.

    In other news, you saw Phish and I didn’t get an invite? (sniff… sniff…). ;)

  7. No One says:

    Good thing I bought my FL home in early 2021. Prices of homes still rising and the initiation fee at the nearby country club has more than doubled over the past year to $125k.
    Here’s a recent mid-level home listing, pushed up in price by having a boat dock, which for some reason people want.

  8. Juice Box says:

    re: “There cannot be more people working in the city now vs 3 years ago.”

    There isn’t and for Manhattan there over 110,000 less people living there now and Brooklyn’s population declined by 86,000. The idea here is during the pandemic rents dropped and vacancies increased and it became more affordable. Those that had to have roommates moved out and lived on their own etc, and those in the outlying less desirable areas traded up. Perhaps many have moved back but there are no signs all those people moved back to the Manhattan to live and work.

  9. SmallGovConseravtive says:

    libturd says:
    April 23, 2022 at 10:01 pm
    “Thanks for all the kind words all. I did what I always do when sh1t gets crazy. I go into sweat equity mode…”

    Let me echo what others have already said in wishing you and your family well in all that you’re dealing with. Also, tremendous respect for focusing on what you can control when life throws something at you that’s so far beyond your control.

    One question: given your son’s need for advanced medical care, and the peace-of-mind that you must have in being only 90 minutes from a world class facility like CHoP, how does living full-time in Costa Rica come into the picture? Despite the pleasant quality of life that you’ve noted, it can’t possibly have any facilities that rival CHoP, does it?

  10. Juice Box says:

    3B – re: The Jefferson in Hackensack, well it is walking distance to the New Bridge Landing train station, so only 45 minutes to Penn Station with a Secaucus transfer….. 45 minutes lol. I wonder how many times a week it actually makes it into the city that quick.

  11. joyce says:

    having a boat dock, which for some reason people want.

    Tough one to figure out

  12. Bystander says:


    We should do a NJRE meet-up for the jam lovers. Summer is a much, much better time to catch a show – there is Jones Beach, Bethel, AC, Philly etc. MSG is special though. They leave it all on stage. It was last minute play by a few of us. The construction around MSG was crazy. Had not been in awhile. We had no tickets and thought could scalp. World has changed. All e-tickets. No one was selling hard tickets. We literally bought 3 on s*at g*ek at 7:30 and luckily got them transferred to T*cketm*ster account so we made it to seats as they came on. It was hot, crammed as we pushed into sec 112 behind stage . Love that view but my buddy passed out from heat and festivities.

  13. No One says:

    It’s sort of like those whirlpool tubs. People want them, but only about 20% of people actually use them. And there are marinas with dry docks which is likely a more worry-free way to keep that boat that people take out 2 or 3 times a year. Meanwhile, seawall and dock and boat maintenance keep coming.
    There are a few hardcore boaters, but not as many as people who think they will be big boaters.

  14. 3b says:

    Juice: Yes, walk to the train, and you can walk to Feathers ( if one leans that way) , Mc Donald’s and CVS mall. The area is subject to major flooding, and the ground floor apartments, are hard on the side walk, and very low. They do have balconies , so one can sit out and watch the sunset over Rt 4.

  15. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of NJ Transit. We had a cement truck hit the train bridge in Holmdel on March 4th and did huge damage and closed one of the NJ Coast rail lines. Those trucks are about 13ft 6 in and the bridge is is marked at 12ft 5 in. The cement company I think is located down the road a few miles in Tinton Falls. Those cement trucks would normally pass by my son’s school on the way to their delivery and cross over the train tracks that had a grade level crossing. I gather this driver thought he found a shortcut in the next town with the train bridge. I guess the driver was also partially blind and bad at math. There are newer flashing warning message signs of the low bridge installed a few years ago but the 18 wheelers and box trucks kept hitting it every other month it was pretty banged up already when the cement truck hit it with a load of 10 cubic yards of cement.

    They are trying to fix it now, new steel beams and a new concrete track bed for the last month or so road closed etc. There are plans to lower the road etc, probably will costs huge $$$$.

  16. Nomad says:


    for some, its a big run up in equties that took gains and bought the expensive home. What % of buyers comprised this group, no idea but guess is 20% at most. Wonder if any borrowed against their portfolios to buy. Mtg companies laying off. How many 1st time buyers DINKs maxed out based on both incomes? September should start showing more visible stress in housing. Everything returns to the mean. Tide goes out. Annual meeting this Sat with Warren & Charlie. I find Buffets comments always insightful.

  17. Bystander says:

    We were walking to Grand Central after MSG show on Thurs around 12am, probably got to 38th and 5th (?). There was literally not a soul on either side of street as we walked down 38th towards Madison. We both acknowledged how weird that was for NYC.

  18. Trick says:

    There is 1 house listed in our neighborhood, came on the market last week. Guessing its already in attorney review. All others, including the crappy one are under contract. All that have closed sold in the low 6’s.

  19. Juice Box says:

    Re: boat dock.

    Growing up in the Bronx we would spend our weeks during our summers at the Jersey Shore at my uncle house on the bay in Tom’s River. Great community back then, all boaters etc, it was magical especially July 4th. My Uncle had a small boat to go out and enjoy the day on the bay. The problem is you almost always want a bigger one. Heck look at those crazy Russian Oligarchs. 30 years ago they were all poor but rose to such great wealth that several even have more than one mega yacht now. I remember seeing Abromovich’s yacht docked on the Hudson in Manhattan, and as you went by it on the ferry boat you realize just how poor you really are.

  20. Libturd says:


    Excellent question and it is something I have thought of. I’m not sure I’ll find a CHOP down in San Jose, though their health care is actually rated higher than ours. So for what we went through this past week, we probably would have gotten similar service. Though for a more major brain surgery, say if a tumor came back; we’d probably just fly to CHOP. Quite frankly, direct airfare can be had for around $250 round trip with about 3 weeks advance notice and even at the last minute, it’s less than $500, so there’s that. Their medical tourism industry is booming do to their significantly lower pricing and something like 90% of their medical professionals were trained and board certified in the United States. So really, it is quite comparable. So I guess we’d have to pick and choose which medical services we could transfer down there as opposed to up here. On the bright side, the D is in survivorship now, so outside of the shunt, we just need to watch his hearing, vision and chemo/radiated organs going forward, which can be done anywhere. His brain and spine MRIs are down to once a year and it’s unlikely he’ll get cancer again in those areas now that we made it five years. Chances are, the crazy chemo and radiation worked. We were very lucky. Even if it cost him a few points of IQ.

    Really appreciate the question.

    Where we would really benefit in CR, would be the costs for his continuing education. Right now, his ABA center provides one-to-one instruction but at a cost of 130K per year. My insurance covers about half of it. But I can’t quit my job or move to another, obviously (hell of a system we have here). Down there, I can hire a one-to-one, 24-hour aide for the D, for about $500 a month which includes their pension payment and health care benefits. I could even setup a trust so that this person would be paid long after Gator and I are not around, removing the burden from my older son, to take care of him. The D is a joy to work with as his disposition is really great. He never tantrums and loves learning. But he won’t learn in a classroom environment. It has to be one-on-one because you need to figure out creative ways to teach him. This is where ABA excels. So if somehow, I could find someone who we could train to help teach the D life skills (which shouldn’t be that difficult), Costa Rica makes a lot more sense than America. One-on-one services would cost probably ten times that here, and there would be constant turnover. There, the Nicaraguan housekeeper or helper is extremely common. From what I read, if you treat them well, they become a family member for life. So I could easily afford to double their salary and we would still five times better off living the Pura Vida. Plus the fact it is so unpopulated, it will be much safer for him.

  21. No One says:

    Watch the movie Tenet and you might stop wanting a huge yacht and tall model wife.
    As a commander from the Navy once told me, if it flies, floats, or f*cks, rent it.

  22. Libturd says:

    Getting the boat out of the water is godsend for boats and reduces maintenance tremendously. Problem is, lifts are very expensive and also extremely maintenance prone. Plus, the larger the boat, the larger the costs for everything. I’m sure you all have already heard what BOAT stands for, Bankruptcy on a Trailer.

  23. Libturd says:

    “if it flies, floats, or f*cks, rent it.”

    Heard that from a commercial fisherman in North Carolina.

  24. Libturd says:

    Inventory looks to have shot up, at least anecdotally, in these parts. I think this is the last hurrah before the insane growth stops. Inflation will do that. Gotta get that oil tank out ASAP. Estimate tomorrow. Found a local guy who will dismantle and rebuild area of house that requires it.

  25. 3b says:

    Inventory increasing in my town. Not a lot yet, but still early. Houses are selling, but taking much longer to go UC. Ones I thought would be gone in a week, are taking a month. Some insane asking prices, and horrible locations.

  26. joyce says:

    I agree … same thing as someone wanting a pool in a region of the country that you can barely use it, or all sorts of other expensive toys that seems great at the time and then sit idle.

    No One says:
    April 25, 2022 at 9:48 am

  27. Juice Box says:

    re: Sit idle….Who goes boating more than once a week? A full days boating is usually a full tank of gas, smaller boats are 40 gallons, and a small cabin cruiser might have 2 tanks that will take 100-200 gallons capacity. Mileage varies quit a bit from a less than 1 mile a gallon to maybe 8 miles a gallon if you have great conditions and put put along.

    It’s been 20 years now, but I had a nice fast boat once with two inboard motors. I even rented marina space for a short time in Hoboken during the summer and would take it out for a spin when I got home from work! Of course all the friends wanted to go too a free boat ride and beers on a nice warm summer night WHY NOT!

    Motor and other maintenance, gel coating repairs, fuel, marina fees, needing a truck to tow it and heck bad weather experienced to ruin a weekend all that including a beaching because I did not know the bay area well enough. By the end of that summer the boat was beat up and so was my budget, so off to the next sucker it went.

    Happy to go for ride, pay for gas and rent one on vacation etc like I have done in the Florida but own one again? Only if I hit the lottery..

  28. leftwing says:

    “I have read about young people who got a deal on a nice place a one-bedroom apartment upper west side etc and were only paying $2000 month getting an increase of $800 yes 40 percent. So it will be back to roommates again etc for them.”

    NYT had an article exactly on this topic…about the people who moved out of shares and are now getting forced back… a week or so ago I posted the link, don’t have it handy.

    “20 days Pumpkin-free”

  29. Juice Box says:

    That NYT article is better than the one I read. Double the rent increase..!lol

    This young woman traded up from Bushwick to the Financial District…

    “At the start of the pandemic, Chelcie Parry was hunkered down in a damp, two-bedroom, no-living-room apartment in Bushwick, Brooklyn, with a roommate, facing pestilence at every turn: outside was the threat of coronavirus, inside was black mold. For the pleasure, each paid $1,000.

    Then in January 2021, Ms. Parry came across a studio in Manhattan’s Financial District complete with a doorman. Before the pandemic it had been listed at $2,614 a month, according to the listing website StreetEasy, now the rent was $1,750. After months of lockdowns, social distancing and working from home in her dank apartment, she jumped at the chance to live spore and roommate free.”

    “It felt like the closest thing that I could have to a hug at the time,” said Ms. Parry, 26. To afford it, she said, she took on another job; she works at a theater nonprofit, and at a media company. The studio felt worth the hustle: She spent her days decorating to her own taste, practicing TikTok dances free from judgmental observers and indulging her 3 a.m. Hot Pocket habit without anyone catching her in the kitchen, she said.

    Then her lease renewal arrived in the mail. On April 1, the rent went up to $3,450 — just shy of double.


  30. Phoenix says:

    Double the rent increase..!lol

    What is so funny? This is a 26 year old woman, someone’s daughter, getting jammed up with a massive rent increase.

    I guess you could say it’s a lesson for her, but it most certainly seems immoral and borderline criminal.

  31. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – The way the story reads about her moldy dank Bushwick apartment brings back memories for me. That is where my “!Lol” is coming from, not from the rent increase, as my first place in NYC was in Hells Kitchen was with the roommate full of mold and roaches.

  32. Libturd says:

    That’s a lot of hot pockets.

  33. Ex says:

    9:40 hell yeah. Wish I was closer for that one.
    Music!!! And family!!! All that really matters.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    Pools and boats are a tremendous amount of time and money. Above ground pools are infinitely easier than inground but still, require much attention. As I speak, I have a sump pump hard-piped into the 1 1/2 PVC opening at the bottom of my pool, feeding into a 5 gallon bucket. The pump pauses for 1 second before kicking in for 3 seconds as the 5 gallon bucket quickly fills.

    The bottom drain opening of the pool is approximately 7 feet deeper than the two sumps in my house. Those two sumps filled during Ida and it took 3 or 4 days before they calmed down.

    The pool needs to stay bone dry for another two days as the epoxy cures. Today is day 3 and I’m holding my breath the sump pump doesn’t die. I do have a backup pump, though. This is an interesting task and I know you guys would be intrigued to see this in person. There’s obviously a spring or high water table running under my property for this flow to be constant and steady. Amateur geologists/hydrologists feel free to chime in on this one.

    If that 1 1/2 PVC cap was not opened by a diver when the pool was draining down, the pool would have popped out of the ground on day one.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Lib suitcase and a dream from Texas to become a Broadway actor.

    She has a nice voice too.


  36. Libturd says:

    I am so happy I brought my Intex in early 2020. At first, I made fun of Gator for wasting $750 on it. This will be year three and I’ve sunk another $500 into it. The maintenance the first year sucked since it’s nearly a 5K gallon pool and it comes with a woefully underpowered cartridge filter and pump. I got a monster Hayward Pool filter that filters all of the water in the pool every 2 hours or so. It also creates such a powerful current that the pool is more like a lazy river in that you float in a large rotating circle around the pool every 30 seconds or so. No dirt has a chance. All leaves go into the real skimmer I installed. We also purchased a quality step ladder instead of the wobbly lawsuit waiting to happen ladder that came with the pool.

    I used 2 gallons of liquid bleach from Walmart and one gallon of Cyanuric acid for the entire season last year. Total cost was $15. Had to shock the pool once after a crazy rainstorm. Another $5 and the rest of the bottle of Cyanuric. I also purchased a self propelled vacuum for $150. So figure $1500 all in for a pool for three summers. Our community pool is $750 a season after paying the initiation fee (in the thousands). Was our best Summer investment ever. Probably will use it a 4th time next year and then should be able to sell the whole kit and caboodle for $750.

  37. grim says:

    Hearing the twitter offer was accepted

  38. 3b says:

    Gloomy opinion piece over on Marketwatch by Nouriel Roubini. Worth a read.

  39. 3b says:

    Grim: Reuters confirming it too.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Elon is set to get tens of millions of new options from TESLA soon in his next contract, $43 billion is now just pocket change for him, and the recent Bloomberg article said banks lined up for margin loan commitments to him, but he is fronting some of his own cash too.

    I don’t know how he can run all these companies by himself.

  41. crushednjmillenial says:

    3B on the Jefferson in Hackensack . . .

    I think that location is great for millenials that are still in the renting phase of life. If someone drives to work in a suburban office in Bergen County or Newark, the driving commute is good. If one person of the couple works in the City, the walk to the train stations by Feathers is fine. Obviously, if one of the persons in the couple works from home, even better. The location is a little bad if someone wants to take a little walk around the neighborhood (busy road on one side, higheway on the other, cemetary in the back) – still, the tenants in this kind of building stay for 3-4 years max and the majority are 1-2 years.

    Shopping and whatnot are good from that location as long as the household has one car – Whole Foods in Paramus, the malls, Target is right there. The value proposition of Hackensack, to me, is that you get all the access to suburban amenities (I mean that in a good way) without paying the rent premium of living in a town with good schools. No one is moving to Hackesnack to live out the single-and-25 portion of their life – it’s the 28-and-getting-an-apartmentwithgirlfriendyouwillprobablymarrysoonerorlater-for-less-rent-than-Hoboken phase.

    A one-bedroom probably costs like $2,250/month in the Jefferson after all rent concessions and amenity fees and whatnot. Would have been probably like $1,900 before this crazy RE market lately. The building will mostly have quieter, professional people, so living there is mostly quiet, no pests, and no crime inside the building. Gym and pool are accessed without leaving the grounds. Doorman for packages.

    I’ve lived in several buildings like the Jefferson and it compares favorably to renting in a random 2-family house (more $$$, but better features and newer). Although, I’ve also rented apartmetns in random small multis and that could be good, too.

  42. Ex says:

    12:38 money talks!

  43. 3b says:

    Crushed. Valid points, I can see the attraction for the younger crowd. Being close to the train is desirable, but not as desirable as it once was. The physical location is miserable, and the surrounding area is run down and sad looking. Although it may be revitalized.

    The problem I see is that there is so much new apartment rental housing being built all over Hackensack, and in much nicer physically attractive areas, that are truly walkable, and will eventually have the restaurants and coffee bars stores that many of the younger generation want. I don’t know what kind of amenities, and I would imagine no pools.

    The noise and pollution from Rt 4, Kinderkamack and the train won’t be pleasant, but as you note for short term stays of 2 to 4 years for many it might work. Flooding and increased traffic will be awful of course.

  44. No One says:

    Running twitter should be easy.
    Stop censoring.
    Point out that anyone and everyone could be lying, and that people can still sue you for slander etc, if you do it on twitter.
    Then save tons of money by firing a bunch of woke censors, stop paying Media Matters to advise your censors.

    Musk’s problem is that China has him by the nads. I’ll bet $20 he doesn’t say a critical word about the mass violation of freedom of speech in China, or anything particularly critical about the Chinese Communist Party and its fascist policies. Because he wants to make and sell cars there, and they don’t accept criticism. Imagine an uncensored twitter in China.

  45. Ex says:

    Totalitarian regimes tend to avoid sunlight.

  46. No One says:

    This gloomy Roubini article?

    But even without these important short-term factors, the medium-term outlook would be darkening. There are many reasons to worry that today’s stagflationary conditions will continue to characterize the global economy, producing higher inflation, lower growth, and possibly recessions in many economies.

    For starters, since the global financial crisis, there has been a retreat from globalization and a return to various forms of protectionism. This reflects geopolitical factors and domestic political motivations in countries where large cohorts of the population feel “left behind.” Rising geopolitical tensions and the supply-chain trauma left by the pandemic are likely to lead to more reshoring of manufacturing from China and emerging markets to advanced economies – or at least near-shoring (or “friend-shoring”) to clusters of politically allied countries. Either way, production will be misallocated to higher-cost regions and countries.

    Moreover, demographic aging in advanced economies and some key emerging markets (such as China, Russia, and South Korea) will continue to reduce the supply of labor, causing wage inflation. And because the elderly tend to spend savings without working, the growth of this cohort will add to inflationary pressures while reducing the economy’s growth potential.

    The sustained political and economic backlash against immigration in advanced economies will likewise reduce labor supply and apply upward pressure on wages. For decades, large-scale immigration kept a lid on wage growth in advanced economies. But those days appear to be over.

    Similarly, the new cold war between the US and China will produce wide-ranging stagflationary effects. Sino-American decoupling implies fragmentation of the global economy, balkanization of supply chains, and tighter restrictions on trade in technology, data, and information – key elements of future trade patterns.

    Climate change, too, will be stagflationary. After all, droughts damage crops, ruin harvests, and drive up food prices, just as hurricanes, floods, and rising sea levels destroy capital stocks and disrupt economic activity. Making matters worse, the politics of bashing fossil fuels and demanding aggressive decarbonization has led to underinvestment in carbon-based capacity before renewable energy sources have reached a scale sufficient to compensate for a reduced supply of hydrocarbons. Under these conditions, sharp energy-price spikes are inevitable. And as the price of energy rises, “greenflation” will hit prices for the raw materials used in solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean technologies. …

  47. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The twtr stock will make paper gains in the short term but I don’t think he put together a bid for it purely to make money. He sees himself as a historical figure and a statesman.

    If you view freedom of speech as threatened then I can’t disagree with him. Nothing is more essential to our way of life.

    Just last week Ob0ma was pounding the table for more censorship. The left can’t get enough.

    This could be a game changer in that respect if a new model for online discourse emerges. I’m interested to see who else bought in.

  48. 3b says:

    No One: Yes that’s the one. Contrast that with some of the chatter I am reading that says inflation has peaked, and the Fed will be done tightening shortly.

  49. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Step one is to kick the ceo to the curb. If he’s on an h1b send him back and tell him to stay there until he can appreciate the bill of rights.

  50. leftwing says:

    Roubini being bearish is like AOC being liberal….it just is, always.

  51. BRT says:

    Climate change, too, will be stagflationary. After all, droughts damage crops, ruin harvests, and drive up food prices, just as hurricanes, floods, and rising sea levels destroy capital stocks and disrupt economic activity.

    Love this nonsensical analysis. Climate change has been positively correlated with crop production for 150 years. Every single grow zone in the US improves with a 1 degree shift in average temperature.

  52. No One says:

    3B Inflation could peak and still rise at levels higher than the previous 20 years. I sure hope we don’t have a long period of 7%+.
    If inflation were to average 3% over the next 10 years and fixed income investors actually demanded real returns, yields would need to go up significantly more. We’ve been living in abnormal times for the last 20 years. The history of fiat money is generally one of devaluation and inflation. Governments borrowing and printing ever-more money without cost inflation was a historical anomaly, and there could be a period of extra pain to make up for the lack of it.

    De-globalization would be quite painful. Even if it’s only breaking from trade with Russia and China, that would be a huge shock to the system. It may be worth doing, but people shouldn’t kid themselves that it would be costless.

  53. Faster Eddie says:

    Now that Musk is putting an end to suppression and censorship on tweeter, where will the sniveling and discontented muppets go to squash righteous viewpoints?

  54. BRT says:

    It wasn’t long ago that the supporters of censorship were saying, “you can build your own twitter”. Musk just bought it instead.

  55. Fastest Eddie says:

    Geezus, you want to wreck a value-based, time-honored society real fast? Allow western style liberals to pedal their madness and broadcast it through various pipelines. The outcome of progressive ideas have come to fruition; filth, crime, values diminished, classic American conduct and ethics erased are the byproducts of the leftist casuists.

  56. Libturd says:

    “Musk just bought it instead.”

    And no one sees a problem with it? This may be worse than the censorship he is trying to stop.

    We’re now past buying the government. Just buy the company that bought the government instead.

  57. leftwing says:

    “Now that Musk is putting an end to suppression and censorship on tweeter, where will the sniveling and discontented muppets go to squash righteous viewpoints?”


    “Musk just bought it instead. And no one sees a problem with it?”

    So funny, I’m seeing all over – even on Fox – questions about is it healthy having a platform like TWTR in hands that may – gasp – have a political view imprinted on the platform?

    WTF do these jackasses think has been occurring for at least the last five years?

    I do think it’s hilarious the Left has their undies all twisted up over this….oh well, if they don’t like it…just go form your own TWTR, lol.

  58. No One says:

    If Musk actually sticks by his policy of non-editorializing and free speech, then I don’t have a problem with Twitter, even though I have mixed opinions on Musk.
    Just like my problem with the WaPo isn’t that Bezos owns it, it’s that it’s edited by a bunch of people with terrible ideas and social/political agendas that I don’t agree with. But I don’t want to shut it down, I’d like to see people with better ideas beat it commercially.
    Musk might get a lot of “free” advertising for Tesla. But if Twitter is going to make money they need paid advertising.

  59. Ex says:

    Righteous viewpoint. What a f’in marooooooon

  60. Libturd says:

    I am solidly against censorship. But ultra rich men buying out individual corporations in the name of politics is a terrible solution.

    Imagine if, say, Gates started picking off all of the gun manufacturers one by one to shut them down. Or say Zuckerberg, starts purchasing all of the major meat processors since he feels the world should be vegan.

    No regulation is no regulation. Not just when it conveniently fits the narrative.

    Truth be told, I’m glad Musk wasted his money on Twitter. Of all of the social media platforms, it’s been the most difficult to monetize and unless he deftly turns it into a social media driven news source (which is really all it’s good for), then he is going to have wasted an awful lot of money. I wonder how he figures out how to get the government to subsidize this enterprise. Or does he just want it to pump up his Doge coin holdings?

  61. 3b says:

    No One: I agree with your analysis, with the exception that we are at peak inflation; of course I could be wrong, but I think we need more time to see how it plays out.

    As for decoupling and globalization, I agree it will be painful, but think the country ultimately will be better for it.

  62. 3b says:

    Left: Yes, that’s Roubini always bearish. The difference between him and AOC of course is that AOC is a moron, and not versed in any degree on any subject.

    While I don’t always agree with Roubini, his analysis and insights are well reasoned and thoughtful.

  63. leftwing says:

    “I am solidly against censorship. But ultra rich men…”

    Who do you think are making the content decisions currently, lol.

    Oh, that’s right, I forgot about liberal myopia…if it comports with their view it isn’t a view it’s just baseline correct…/s

  64. leftwing says:

    “While I don’t always agree with Roubini, his analysis and insights are well reasoned and thoughtful.”

    I always respect his analysis and work, only issue I have is the ‘broken clock right twice a day…’ conundrum.

    The black swan/bearishness view seems to be always be ‘ON’, which on a few occasions actually occurs…as such, I question his predictive value…but certainly not his intellect

  65. leftwing says:

    “Righteous viewpoint. What a f’in marooooooon”

    Let it out Ex. Let it fly.

    I know it must hurt when in the same week one of your cornerstone ‘news’ institutions is deemed too much a clown show for its new owner to even give a proper burial and when the megaphone your side uses to shout everyone else out is so corrupted the Board runs for cover and gives the company away so quickly they don’t even bother to solicit a counteroffer. LOLOL.

  66. Juice Box says:

    Musk is right, and this is far from completely political either. Elon was pissed off at the censorship during the pandemic but there were other previous censorship issues going on he complained about both publicly and probably to Dorsey directly that weren’t addressed.

    Elon has said Twitter as a company that is supposedly seeking to be profitable can do a much much better job to compete here in the West and other markets where they aren’t blocked by Governments. He will give it somewhat of boost a chance to compete with the likes of Meta which by far is the #1 platform for social media. I for one thought Twitter might go extinct. During Jack Dorsey’s reign they did not change much or add new features and were blow out of the water worldwide in users and revenue by Facebook and Instagram etc.

    Nearly 75% of the world’s population aged 13+ uses social media, and 72% of Americans use social media. People are spending more than 2 hours a day on social media. Ad revenues on the major social media platforms are supposed to grow 17% or more this year and reach something like $200 Billion worldwide for hosting basically a damm chat room, something nobody has been able to get right since the original BBS rooms, IRC, AOL, ICQ, Forums, Blogs like this one and all the newer social media.

    Social media today isn’t a town square or a news group or feed of the past it’s a battle ground of ideas about how we organize and act as humans where simple words and images are used to sway the opinion of the masses. China has their own closed and heavily censored social media and Russia does too. We don’t want the pendulum of free speech to swing too far in their directions for sure where the state moderates all speech and thereby all thoughts and ideas.

    Elon might get it wrong too but at least he is giving Twitter a chance to survive before they became another AOL story. I also don’t think the conservatives will get their wish either with regards to Trump or really anything they want. Elon is a technocrat and a global capitalist he does not fit into American view that someone has to be Left or Right…

  67. 3b says:

    Left: I agree with the broken clock analogy and Roubini. In his defense I would say perhaps the Fed would have ended it’s recklessness years ago.

  68. Juice Box says:

    Twitter CEO Agrawal has been quiet today, may have lost perhaps 12 million in stock comp along with the other Twitter employees with unvested stock. NY Times was snooping around on their Slack conversations today, no news yet on what will happen. I find it funny they are using Slack for internal communication BTW you would think they could have developed their own by now with all those programmers.

  69. Libturd says:

    Or just called each other on their phones.

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Yes, monetizing twitter is the answer. Sure. Now it’s officially going to die with Musk monetizing it and turning it into another facebook ad machine. Great. Free speech!!

    At the end of the day. Who really didn’t have free speech on twitter? Antivaxxer spewed their bs nonstop. The only person who got cut off was trump after abusing the shit out of the platform for years.

  71. Juice Box says:

    Pumps speech has never been free. Just try and interrupt a politician elected
    Or not in public with your opinion. Your words mean nothing to those in search of power even in a public setting, you will
    Be be stood in front of, shoved, confronted and shouted down, maybe even dragged out and arrested. At least online you might have a chance, to
    Voice your opinion right, wrong or indifferent. BTW many medical professionals were censored for their online opinions, and I don’t give a crap about Trump and neither will Elon, the Orange clown already said he would not come back anyway. Even so under your pretense that he abused Twitter, he was not the first politician and won’t
    Be the last in search of power.

  72. Fabius Maximus says:

    “where will the sniveling and discontented Muppets go to squash righteous viewpoints?”

    Truth Social? I assume it’ll be for sale. It will be interesting to see where this goes. Donnie may be back, but I can just block his message. Monetizing the platform will be difficult. NYT and WaPO etc going behind the paywalls, increased, revenues, but dropped clicks. There will be be microsites that pop up to fill the gap. You will still be able to get the news from the authors you follow today. Back to the old days of RSS feeds.

    The bigger issues will be that Russia will not be funneling money into this election cycle with the war and sanctions going on. Donnie has and is still milking his cult for personal gain, so there will be a lot of GOP with empty coffers.

  73. Juice Box says:

    Back to the greatest conspiracy that never was? I gather the indictment of Igor Danchenko and or the Muller report, the criminal charges against Hillary’s Lawyer and the settlement with the FEC with Hillary and the DNC paying a fine is not enough?

    How about if Hillary is forced to say it
    Was made up? Would that be enough?

  74. Fabius Maximus says:

    Who goes boating more than once a week?

    I rented a house with a dock for a year. The landlord sold me his Pontoon boat and I sold it back to him when I moved out. I only had to deal with the slips first and last day of the season.

    Gas was the big delimiter. Getting it into the boat and the cost. Dockside is a pain to fill. The pumps on the lake were expensive and you had to queue. We have friends with big boats in Sheepshead Bay, they’ll live at the dock for most of the summer. One bought a Paddle Steamer for a few years.

    But it was great getting home at 6PM, throw the kids into lifejackets and pack dinner to go.

  75. chicagofinance says:

    I’m sure there were more likely grants than options (assuming out of the money at cash takeout), and change-of-control provisions means automatic vesting.

    Juice Box says:
    April 25, 2022 at 4:41 pm
    Twitter CEO Agrawal has been quiet today, may have lost perhaps 12 million in stock comp along with the other Twitter employees with unvested stock. NY Times was snooping around on their Slack conversations today, no news yet on what will happen. I find it funny they are using Slack for internal communication BTW you would think they could have developed their own by now with all those programmers.

  76. Ex says:

    4:02 really? Less than zero fucks given.


  77. chicagofinance says:

    Tremendous post even though it is succinct and plain spoken.
    “We’ve been living in abnormal times for the last 20 years.”
    To have an entire generation of professionals that scoff at the principles of finance. Reading this stuff feels like a throwback, but in reality it is simply TRUTH.

    No One says:
    April 25, 2022 at 2:14 pm
    3B Inflation could peak and still rise at levels higher than the previous 20 years. I sure hope we don’t have a long period of 7%+.
    If inflation were to average 3% over the next 10 years and fixed income investors actually demanded real returns, yields would need to go up significantly more. We’ve been living in abnormal times for the last 20 years. The history of fiat money is generally one of devaluation and inflation. Governments borrowing and printing ever-more money without cost inflation was a historical anomaly, and there could be a period of extra pain to make up for the lack of it.

    De-globalization would be quite painful. Even if it’s only breaking from trade with Russia and China, that would be a huge shock to the system. It may be worth doing, but people shouldn’t kid themselves that it would be costless.

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