From Gallup:
Record Low in U.S. Say It Is a Good Time to Buy a House
Thirty percent of U.S. adults say it is a good time to buy a house, down 23 percentage points from a year ago and the first time the figure has been below 50%. Gallup has asked the question since 1978, including annual updates since 2003.
The results are from Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance poll, conducted April 1-19. The survey was conducted as the median sale prices of U.S. homes reached a record $428,000, and as mortgage interest rates have climbed to their highest levels in over a decade.
Until now, at least half of Americans had consistently said it was a good time to buy a house. The percentage holding that view has varied, often in response to housing market conditions.
In the early 2000s, as U.S. homeownership reached an all-time high, a record 81% of Americans said it was a good time to buy a house. As housing prices rose sharply in the mid-2000s, creating a housing “bubble” and leading to an eventual market crash, positive evaluations of the housing market fell to the low 50s.
Foist
Well folks, given the consensus is hell bent on a recession, we’re due a recession.
Went defensive on the 401k last year, July. Initially kicking myself for jumping too early, but doesn’t seem to really be the case anymore.
Still holding on that big deposit into the 529, though I see no rush.
Decided to jump back into the outsourcing biz, seems I really couldn’t stay away. Am I countercyclical enough? Outsourcing and Alcohol?
I’m curious to know the battle between those that want their asking price, those that are going to rush to put their house up for sale and the buyers/potential buyers pressured by rising interest yet hesitant because prices are too high. There’s a lot of scenarios here. My guy feeling is that those on the fence about selling may make their way to the exit because of the rising interest rates and the rapid rise in prices. My feeling was always the price. I never concerned myself with interest rates. I could never justify price, especially for sellers who did little to nothing to upgrade the place. And if you didn’t clean your house thoroughly on a regular basis? Well, then you were open to outright insults. If you can’t afford to upgrade, that’s fine, at least scrub the place head to toe.
“Outsourcing and Alcohol?”
Well, Americans will need something to do when they don’t have jobs. Appreciate your thoughtfulness.
Combined with WFH and outsourcing, it’s a f/ing nightmare contacting a company with a problem. Between their babies crying in the background and the level of incompetence, it’s bs. I even heard roosters in the background on one call. What a sh!t show calling a company has become.
Get this. My apple case was peeling. Incompetent employee sends me a 50 dollar case that is not refundable. He was supposed to take pictures of my phone case and get it approved first. What a f/ing joke. Keep saving that money and letting these losers WFH with nobody supervising them so that people get experiences like me and stop buying your products. How the f/k do you tell me that the case is covered in warranty, then tell me all I have to do is send my old one back when I receive the new one. Then when I receive the new one, I can’t find a return label. Then call the service again to find out they gave me the wrong f/ing information and the case is now non refundable. What a f/ing joke….WFH is efficient…let me tell ya.
“Decided to jump back into the outsourcing biz, seems I really couldn’t stay away.”
Oil at 109.
So much for curbing inflation. Pussy Powell, like every other chief before him since Volcker, has whimped out at the first sign of the market moving in the wrong direction. Any chance at a soft landing has most likely been erased.
Economy is too strong….even with China shutting down their economy, price still going up. Talk about f/ed. Way too much demand out there.
Libturd says:
May 5, 2022 at 9:01 am
Oil at 109.
So much for curbing inflation. Pussy Powell, like every other chief before him since Volcker, has whimped out at the first sign of the market moving in the wrong direction. Any chance at a soft landing has most likely been erased.
Imagine if we didn’t have a pandemic or Russian War. Just imagine how strong this economy would be right now….roaring 20s 2.0 for sure. Black swan events can’t even cool off this economy.
A US Ministry of Truth/disinformation ministry in the lead-up to the Iraq War would have banned publication of opinions that Saddam didn’t have WMD. Or, at least, they would have labeled such things “misinformation.”
Freedom of Speech is our paramount right. Maybe Due Process. A few others . . . there are a lot of good rights enshrined in the Constitution.
Disinformation Governance Board, in the year 2025 . . .
After winning the 2024 Presidential Election, President Trump in his inauguration speech thanks outgoing President Biden for his service and wishes him a nice retirement. Then, President Trump turns to his first order of business . . . appointing Marjorie Taylor Greene to the position of Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board.
The current apologists for the Disinfo Governance Board, of course, are ok with this. /s/
Lib: de ja vu from the old days, market soars on the Feds comment yesterday no 75 bp increase, only to think about it overnight and have no confidence in that statement and backdown we go. The fact that 75 was mentioned means it’s on the table even if they say it’s off the table. Days of tranquil ever rising markets and asset prices are over.
I would love to ask this new Disinfo board if the threat made by Anonymous to the Supreme Court is real? That threat was tweeted out two days ago, by the real Anonymous twitter account @YourAnonNews they have 8 million followers on Twitter.
Should the DHS marshal the resources of FBI, CIA, NRO, NSA, DOD, CID etc to stop them with lethal force like drone strikes if this threat is real? They should be considered a threat actor at a minimum and should be tracked.
The two Jumbo’s: A tale of two Clifton hot dogs joints across the street from each other
https://amp.northjersey.com/amp/9553041002
Clifton’s newly reopened Original Jumbo’s is damaged when van crashes through wall
https://amp.northjersey.com/amp/9652719002
History Rhymes – inflation, recession, stagflation….
In the 1970s high inflation began with with weak economic growth, fueled by repeated supply shocks like the OPEC oil embargo and rising food prices.
No worries sleepy Joe can dust off Executive Order 11615 and freeze prices, rents, wages, and salaries to stop further inflation.
Fun Times Ahead!!
Now if Anonymous hacked the NSO group and got the source code of Pegasus now that would be interesting.
Pumps – That van crash looks like a Soprano’s move. Did the red van hit that old large Hummer truck and careen between the tree and the lampost at full speed?
Phoenix – re: Pegasus – I believe Apple patched that “zero-click, zero-day” vulnerability with the IOS update 12.5.5 in September of last year. I don’t know what systems they use at the Supreme Court but I doubt the people working there are walking around with unpatched newer iPhones as the phones prompt for updates all the time.
Lol..trying to figure it out myself.
Juice Box says:
May 5, 2022 at 10:22 am
Pumps – That van crash looks like a Soprano’s move. Did the red van hit that old large Hummer truck and careen between the tree and the lampost at full speed?
BRT,
Garden State Health Plan? Any opinion?
Wow, Nasdaq getting body slammed right now.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Anyone selling on the news? I may take a little more off of the table. Just noticed gas prices hit their highest ever today. I guess Powell doesn’t drive.
Speaking of Oil prices. Unless they replace the Russian oil the price is only going to continue to rise. OPEC just voted for a modest increase of 430,000 barrels a day starting in June. OPEC members are still pumping however about 1.5 million barrels a day BELOW their quotas. So no relief from them. The Venezuela situation has not moved at all, however they are still heavily reliant on the dollar with something like 60% of all domestic transactions made in cash dollars. The western world now seeks to wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons, we should be sending loads of diplomats down there to work out a deal, lift sanctions, investments in infrastructure to get them up to a few million barrels a day again as estimates are they are only producing 670,00 BPD.
Does not sound like a job for VP Harris. Perhaps they can find a better diplomat in Europe?
This might be the start of a crash when you see drops like this….but who knows in this violent volatile market.
OMG! This woman lost 350k and her husband doesn’t know. Holy chit!!
https://twitter.com/davidbelle_/status/1521979114290298880?s=21&t=LtvAhrDwWT4nTNUEKI4ZFA
The ministry of truth is surreal. Kind of like asking for corruption to be investigated and then being tried for impeachment.
Obviously relevant that this person has a background in Russian affairs. We’re flirting with a nuclear confrontation and there is little or nothing said on a daily basis. Exactly what information are they so concerned about.
I would be building a monstrous NG infrastructure, but then again, my government would do what’s best for the world.
Pumps, do whatever is the lowest cost to you out of pocket with full coverage.
This is not the 70s. You have no manufacturing base. Companies have no need to hire in US. Grim is talking about outsourcing biz. Unless you add some protectionism soon, many people will be wiped out in middle class. The options can’t be be a lawyer, doctor, investment banker, full stack developer..and rest can go to India. I guess add outsourcer to good job
WRK 53.98 +1.22 +2.31%
I am naming the crash. Stinko De Mayo.
Remember Pumps when I told you things are never different. Well, things are never different.
I am dancing a jig right now.
Chi, I bet this is your first real crash for a lot of your clients. I hope you tempered their expectations. I’ve been trying to warn everyone willing to listen that this was a probability. I don’t envy your career choices at times like this. I could never do it. More power to you.
Send AOC down there to do a pole dance for Maduro.
Juice Box says:
May 5, 2022 at 10:42 am
Speaking of Oil prices.
Does not sound like a job for VP Harris. Perhaps they can find a better diplomat in Europe?
That sound you hear is The Ten hitting 305.
Also Chi, the ten year just made some new sounds. Did you hear it? (3.05)
Ha!
Lib: It’s never different this time, been like you saying that for years. It may be stalled, delayed, but it’s never different. Saw something this morning on MW some trader with a supposedly good track record is predicting $160. 00 oil by the summer and 260.0” within a year!
And eventually it will all rise again…never ending cycle. The problem with your type, you never take advantage of the bottom of the cycle. Too much fear runs through your veins. You had a shot to buy depressed housing how many times in your life and instead you waited out of fear that it would never rise again.
3b says:
May 5, 2022 at 11:19 am
Lib: It’s never different this time, been like you saying that for years. It may be stalled, delayed, but it’s never different.
I just tried to book a last minute (2 weeks out) round trip flight to San Diego for a college visit. $1800 for two. One week out it’s half that. Inflation sucks.
I just ordered a 2″ pipe repair clamp since HD doesn’t carry them any more. Paid $5 for it last time. Was $16. Some were over $20!
If you look for it, you will see it everywhere. Inflation is running much higher than 10%. And 2.5% increase in the ten year hasn’t even started to control it. And Powell is saying that larger hikes are not necessary, removing yet another tool from his dwindling tool kit.
3b,
I was a perennial bull for how long, but I sucked up my nerves and liquidated 401k 100%. Your best moves in investing are always the ones that are really tough to pull the trigger on. Don’t make the mistake when the time comes to act on these fire sales.
I will never forget 2009 and screwing myself on sirius stock price at .10. 30k would have made me 1.2 million in a short amount of time. Will never ever let doom overtake my mind again and cost me lots of money.
Pumps,
You are so clueless. Did I not buy a home in Glen Ridge at the absolute bottom of the housing cycle for 423K? Am I about to sell a house in Montclair at the near peak of the housing cycle? And when I sell my GR home a year from now for over a million?
By the end of this decade, when the stock market comes back, I will have an extra digit on my net worth. That’s a lot of canned pancake batter. Tell me more about why I should have put all of my dollars into a an ETF that lost 62% of its value in 6 months. Please share with me more of your investment brilliance. If only granny new you were throwing her hard-earned cash into the bonfire.
Lib: The 75 basis point increase/s is real and the market had overnight to consider it and so we have todays. All good on my end. I never fall for the BS, learned a lot from days at GS, including a legendary hedge fund manger who was a limited partner at GS. I handled all his muni business. No debt, plenty of money, so will watch it all play out.
30 days today, comment free. The blog and myself are better for it.
Pumps.
I needed to put 120K into the Chipotle IPO to subscribe at $22 per share. I didn’t do it, as I needed the money to buy my multi. At best, I’ll get a million for my multi, after slaving for 20 years and sinking hundreds of thousand of carrying costs into it. Even with the recent drop, I could have sold it today for 7.5 million without lifting a finger.
Any more investment advice?
Back on the ignore train. It’s like arguing with a drunk pre-schooler.
Send AOC down there to do a pole dance for Maduro.
LMAO!!
A multi for 7.5MM? Is this a multifamily commercial property?
No, the value of CMG. :P 120K to 7.5 mill.
Jim: I didn’t have time last night. I should have expanded on “You can’t get blood from a stone.” more. Flower corporate bonds are retail in that no institutional (professional) buyers would onboard them into portfolios. They are effectively permanent debt, so their duration is extremely high. In an environment of rising interest rates, long duration can be dangerous (relative to what should be a sleepy conservative portfolio). As much as there is an actual return of face principal contractually required (not guaranteed), this embedded protection is rendered valueless, since you, and even potentially your kids, will be dead. So there is no principal “protection”.
So what is the risk? First, you probably have a partial answer, because you said you already own some, so you have a data point in your portfolio. To be clear, you should have a bona fide mark-to-market on at least March 31, better April 30, best May 4. These don’t really trade, so the mark is probably based on a pricing matrix of a broad set of various credits and maturities that trade in the current market, and then estimated for this bond. It’s kind of like comps on a house.
But in plain language, you need to answer this question for yourself. Since these bonds are permanent debt, the current (or then current at time of purchase) conditions of interest rates must be compared to history or median levels. I don’t know what underlying credit these bonds reflect, but you need to compare 4.8-5.0 for long dated bonds of this credit to where they have been for the last 30-40 years. I would argue that is it likely a situation of adverse selection (meaning that they only offer retail flower bonds when it is in their financial interest to do so).
More information. When you bought your first slug of bonds, what was the first mark you saw? In a perfect world, you buy the bonds, and then you are able to see the price matrix mark at the close of business on that day. Even though your purchase represents the “market”, when you see the mark in your account, you get a better idea of the mark-up. An example would be that you bought $100,000 of bonds, and then when you looked at your account you saw $98,000. So you paid $2,000. Don’t get pissed. Not all of it went to the intermediary with whom you interfaced. It could be anywhere from new issuer, to any of the brokers, secondary sellers, etc. who touched it before it got to your account. If you bought the flower bonds in the last 3 or 4 years, you are much better off, because most of the hidden stuff is disclosed, but that said, you still have to know to look for it. There is much more supervision that years past to prevent yield burning (getting ripped off by paying too high a price), and even intervention to break egregiously bad trades.
As an aside, I managed some of AT&T’s flower bond issuance from the 1970’s about 25 years ago. The marks on these bonds were in the 60’s…… as in 60% of face value. I am only trying to give an example of risk to principal, not a forecast. To reiterate, compare 4.8-5.0 to what history has seen as an average. Over time, for lack of a better benchmark, you would have to blindly expect that the future sale price of your bond (by kid or grandkid) will have to occur in THOSE conditions. It is a decent (if really imperfect) way to make an informed choice.
chicagofinance says:
May 4, 2022 at 6:49 pm
You can’t get blood from a stone. The main question is what is your main goal, and over what time period. These are also called flower bonds, as in you will be pushing up the daisies before they mature.
Jim says:
May 4, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Chi, What is your opinion on eternal bonds paying 4.8 to 5%. I am told by the broker they can be sold anytime and pay an additional 2% if / when called.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 5, 2022 at 11:31 am
I AM a perennial bullSHITTER
Post wasn’t directed at you, it was directed at 3b. Do you know how much money he lost by renting all these years. Doom and gloom infected him and caused him to miss out on a lot of money. I was simply trying to help him out.
Libturd says:
May 5, 2022 at 11:39 am
Pumps,
You are so clueless. Did I not buy a home in Glen Ridge at the absolute bottom of the housing cycle for 423K? Am I about to sell a house in Montclair at the near peak of the housing cycle? And when I sell my GR home a year from now for over a million?
It looks like Intuit/TurboTax has taken the baton from H&R Block this year when it comes to defrauding tax payers to use their products.
In Stutopia, we would do your taxes for you (since we have all of the information already) and you would need only question our presumptions.
She had her biggest inflows in a year today. Some people get it and are taking advantage. They are not timing the bottom, but are buying into a severe sale. For a guy that loves sales, why aren’t you building a position? Take 2% of your money and use it as hot sauce for the next cycle.
And busting her balls needs to end. Ark was the canary in the coal mine for the entire market. It’s obvious by now. It was a screaming signal of a massive bear market coming. Everyone and their mother thinking it was only her and her “chit companies” in a bubble needs to wake the f up and understand the bear is coming for all.
At the end of the day, her companies already got beat up. They might drop some more, but most of the beating has already happened. Not much else you can put your money if you don’t want to be in cash. Buying at these levels might not be bottom, but you sure as hell will make money….prob lots as you position yourself for the next cycle.
“Tell me more about why I should have put all of my dollars into a an ETF that lost 62% of its value in 6 months. Please share with me more of your investment brilliance. If only granny new you were throwing her hard-earned cash into the bonfire.”
You can’t compare the two. You are taking a lucky stock pick and comparing it to an avg buy at the top of the market in housing.
You did what you were supposed to do. Not take a major risk and diversify into real estate. You collected rent for a long time and even came up with some appreciation. Not a bad deal.
That’s why I stopped buying housing. I was already too diversified in it. I’m chasing the higher returns in the stock market now, done with my position on real estate. Maybe if my stock investments blow up next cycle, I will sell and then buy more real estate, but I think I’m really done with real estate unless some sick deals come along. It’s a lot of work like you point out. I also don’t see the chance for huge appreciation in the 2030s or 40s unless population growth picks up. Much rather focus my investments on disruptive innovation over the next 10-20 years.
For people that don’t own real estate, you have to have it. Once you have one or two properties, then focus on stocks. It’s about hedging the future….the most important thing in your life is a roof over your head. Relying on renting is dangerous, because if chit hits the fan, guess what happens to your cost of living? With owning, the cost is stable. Only thing that can go up are your taxes. With renting, you can be forced out of your rental and then forced to pay double the price for the cost of a roof over your head. No thanks. That’s a dangerous game.
Libturd says:
May 5, 2022 at 11:46 am
Pumps.
I needed to put 120K into the Chipotle IPO to subscribe at $22 per share. I didn’t do it, as I needed the money to buy my multi. At best, I’ll get a million for my multi, after slaving for 20 years and sinking hundreds of thousand of carrying costs into it. Even with the recent drop, I could have sold it today for 7.5 million without lifting a finger.
Any more investment advice?
Understanding Reversion to the Mean
Probably the most important lesson my 9th grade economics teacher taught me.
This was followed by an examination of the means. Bank interest rates vary greatly and need to be measured by decade, but historically, they probably average 2 to 3 percent. Average return for housing, 4%. Average return for equity investing, 8%.
Lock these into your brain.
We might hit 3.10 on the ten.
https://yhoo.it/3kFPmhP
How much did you buy today? What was that… zero? Makes sense. It’s as simple as that.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 5, 2022 at 12:47 pm
She had her biggest inflows in a year today. Some people get it and are taking advantage. They are not timing the bottom, but are buying into a severe sale. For a guy that loves sales, why aren’t you building a position? Take 2% of your money and use it as hot sauce for the next cycle.
Face,
Only trying to help.
I’ll start buying when the Naz approaches 11K. I should be done by 7K. Most morons forget that the Nas was below 7K a little over 2 years ago, nearly at 6K less than 4 years ago and was below 1.3K a mere 14 years ago.
Anyone buying ARKK here is a complete moron. Hot sauce is right. It’s what they will be shooting into their briefs.
Pumps even when the asset is just an asset the ability to securitize and sell does crazy things to the value. Perfect example is real estate. A net leased commercial building trades at some multiple of rent. Put it into a REIT and watch because the average punter can buy and sell shares easily the value goes way and the multiple vs the income is much lower than privately held real estate particularly in the current market.
Residential real estate is a poor investment, this comes from my father who was in the real estate business for 40 years some of which involved developing apartments and even speculating on single home suburban developments. Being a landlord requires you to deal with individual tenants, the laws are hostile, the fcf on investment isn’t great and you depend on consumer housing market volatility to make you money. It’s something you buy when there is blood in the street and drop like it’s hot at a time like now. Attractive artificial financing is what makes the housing market what it is, without that you do not get the volatility which enable the chance of a pay day. Even with the pay day anyone who hit a home run on an individual stock or heck even those who bough a basket of stocks probably did better than those investing long term in a residential property. What you do not have in equity markets is 4% financing while housing is a leveraged investment equities tend to be cash for most avg folks.
May 04, 2022
Confirmation of Activity
Fidelity Investments, P.O. Box 770003, Cincinnati, OH 45277-0065 Page 1 of 2
Investment Settings
Modified for All Sources Listed Below
Your Contribution Elections
Your Account Rebalance
Your account has been updated as follows:
BTW Small Cap 20%
MIP II Cl 1 70%
Vang Tot Intl Stk Ad 10%
Total 100%
I’d be willing to bet that the village idiot is somewhere between 75 and 100 percent in the market (not stable) in his wife’s 401K.
Facebook hiring freeze across the board.
Jcer,
Agree with what you said.
All I am saying is that it’s a good move to own the house you live in. It provides stability and security in your life. Real estate will never hit homeruns like individual stocks, but it’s damn hard to lose money on real estate over the long-term. Stocks lose it all every so often…rare, but it does happen. That’s why avg individual is better off buying a house than renting and playing the stock market.
Stocks are based on companies. Companies are based on 4 stages. They are born, grow, mature, and eventually die.
Now WFH gets the real test. I know how this will end, and it won’t be with workers getting paid 200k to sit at home.
3b says:
May 5, 2022 at 1:44 pm
Facebook hiring freeze across the board.
Soon enough, 3b, you will realize WFH was a sign of a giant bubble in the labor market and economy.
You guys always think I make stuff up. It’s tiring. The fund is 100% liquidated into a guaranteed 2% insurance based fund. Did it the first week of the year.
“I’d be willing to bet that the village idiot is somewhere between 75 and 100 percent in the market (not stable) in his wife’s 401K.”
We’ve been over this Pumpy.
When you finally realize I was correct, be a man and apologize 3b…
“The work from home revolution, grudgingly embraced by Corporate America, has evolved into a thing that workers both love and hate.
Why it matters: This week, an Atlantic article confirmed something knowledge workers have known for a while: Remote work has led to much longer hours, and a grueling schedule of meetings that underscore the limits of flexible arrangements.
Driving the news: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, a notorious scourge of remote work, abruptly reversed himself in his annual letter published this week.
Dimon’s volte-face is a reflection of a broader vibe shift on Wall Street, bowing to the realities of a workforce still reluctant to return to cubicle life.
But some employers are hitting workers where it hurts – in their wallets – to get them to return to the office, according to Fortune.
What they’re saying: NBCUniversal News chair Cesar Conde told Axios’ What’s Next Summit that “a hybrid, flexible work environment is a net-net positive and will be an ongoing part of our culture.”
Yet Conde also emphasized “the power of proximity” (i.e. in-person interaction) as something the news giant aims to “recreate.”
And in his letter, Dimon insisted that remote arrangements would “need to work for both the company and its clients.”
State of play: Demand from digital nomads have spurred a boom in co-working spaces, but raise questions about why it’s more suitable to camp out in a public space than a traditional office. Meanwhile, some employees have sued their employers to recoup unreimbursed costs from WFH outlays.
Out thought bubble: Axios’ Emily Peck and I have both chronicled the growing downsides of being a member of the Zoom class, including virtual meeting fatigue, and the resulting drag on service sector activity.
The bottom line: The way we work now has clear benefits, but comes with trade-offs. In the coming months, some bosses may well decide that WFH isn’t worth the compromise, or the strains it puts on employers and workers.”
https://www.axios.com/2022/04/08/wfh-revolution-showing-signs-of-wear
Esp this part…nail in the coffin.
“Meanwhile, some employees have sued their employers to recoup unreimbursed costs from WFH outlays.”
You’d be better off quoting satan.
“We don’t think there are cases where people were evicted out of homes when they shouldn’t have been.”
— Jamie Dimon in 2010 responding to the investigation led by 49 state attorney generals into bank foreclosure practices. Along with several other banks, JP Morgan settled with regulators after widespread mortgage abuse was found and paid out a combined $9.2 billion to those it foreclosed on illegally.
Lib And ain’t nobody went to jail for it. Whether it’s the oligarchs of business or the other oligarchs the public sector unions, the rest of us are held to a different standard, and we always pay.
What do you know. Top 20 worst days of the market. The only other time the market did this since the fiscal crisis of 2008 was when the FED tried to remove the quantitative easing in March of 2020. What did Pussy Powell announce yesterday? That he would end the quantitative easing. Hmmmmm.
I wonder how Friday will play out in the markets.
3b 9.2 billion sounds like such a large number. Than you learn that Jamie recently received a 50 million bonus to stay another 5 years on top of his 35 million per year compensation. Bonused increased 30-40% in 2022 at JPM as well. Well deserved. Well deserved.
Lib: The fine did not hurt. Some heartburn yeah, but did not hurt. Some being led out in handcuffs and orange jump suits and then breaking the banks up, well that would have hurt.
Mortgage rates at their highest since 2009, and they will be going higher! Party is over. Cows are coming home, and the Piper has to be paid.
Here is stat dumb Blumpy, plus others counting their beans. You tell me where this country is headed with corp greed wrapped around its neck…and yes, I can confirm that two of my US resources got 0% raise in 2022.
Over the past year, many workers have found their salaries aren’t enough to cover rising prices due to soaring inflation—and this includes employees who received raises. Among those who received raises, two-thirds received an increase of just 1% to 5% of their salary, well below the current rate of inflation.
And those getting a salary bump are the lucky ones: Only 56% of Americans who work full time received a pay increase in the past year, a YouGov survey of 1,500 adults for Forbes Advisor found.
Dump office space save money in a recession makes perfect sense.
Again, read it..56% of FT workers got zero raise. Let it sink in, let it breathe and let it start to scare the living sh&t of you as credit card rates rise.
3b,
The implications of FB stopping the presses with investment and hiring are enormous. The liquidity angels and VCs who have been funding any idiotic crypto, payment tech, blockhchain idea are going to pull out. Lots of freshly minted $250k NYC jobs are going to dry up like a puzzy hat near a MAGA clown rally.
Yes, the headwinds are infinite.
Bystander: I agree, it’s telling, for those reasons. Both sides are going to find out the party is over. It’s interesting all over the financial press, it’s dramatic increase in mortgage rates, but no talk anymore about the so called inventory shortage.
I believe we could certainly reach 7 percent mortgages by year end. People will be sitting with their recent purchases for a long time.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/05/on-deck-lay-off-accelerator/
On Deck, a tech company that connects founders to each other, capital and advice, has laid off 25% off its staff, per sources familiar with the company. The layoffs were announced today during an internal all hands meeting, and impacts about 72 people.
https://twitter.com/justindross/status/1522266783536893952
The next 6-8 weeks is going to be a bloodbath. I’m hearing rumors about a ton of companies preparing to lay off 20-40% of their team
sign of the times
i now hear about layoffs more often than new rounds
Speaking of oil I have 12 gallons of gasoline stored for a rainy day. I am going to empty it out into my truck as most of it is from the fall and will start to degrade by now. I haven’t had to fire up the generator in a while, knock on wood hopefully I won’t. Cheapest gas in Monmouth county is now Costco at $4.05 a gallon.
Mortgage companies laying off all over the country .
The best lack of logic is that Blumpy is somehow cheering on job plunge yet NYC area real estate and stocks are untouchable, destined to grow. The Fed is only raising rates to 2.25 this year so they can plunge down to 0% again in 2023. It won’t work. People will be f&ed by then with inflation, tough job market and debt loads.
Bystander: As I said a recession will lead more companies to dump real estate as a cost savings. Increasing space or mandating everyone back in the office because it’s a recession makes absolutely no sense.
3b,
I agree but you will need some tax and labor law changes to go with it as well. Remember quickest way to reduce costs are layoffs. Old Brandon is going to have get some laws passed to keep the ship from sinking. The corp overlords have gated estates afterall.
A quick turnaround from “best labor market for workers ever” to layoffs upcoming?
How long did the great labor bull market last? One year?
Stories from past crashes . . .
I distinctly personally remember the mortgage companies get smacked in February 2007. Thornburg Mtge, New Century got whacked. First sign I saw of shaking before the earthquake that came afterwards.
The one thing I can say that is different today compared to 2006 and 1999 is that, at those times and to my eyes, EVERYBODY was rich. People were buying expensive stuff in a way that I didn’t see as much of in the last year or two. In 2006, it was electric in the air (from my perspective) that everybody was ballin’ and housing fever – people so crazy for real estate. In 1999, there was stock market fever everywhere, grabbing in everyone who never paid attention to the market before in their lives.
Anybody got some anecdotes from 2008? 2000? 1987? Earlier?
Peaks and Troughs on the SP500, selected . . .
Great Depression (1929): -86% (I see high point of 32 on SP500, which declined to 4.4)
1973-1974: -48.2%
1987: -33.5%
Tech Boom Crash (2000): -49.7%
GFC (2008): -56.8%
Covid (2020): -33.9%
Current (2020): -15%
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf
Bystander Old Brandon or anyone else won’t do a thing.
F-in GD M-fer. We get mandated back to work into my glass encased barrier room / closet/ fire trap and kid just hired gets COVID. Was there on Tues with him. Two years I avoided this sh&t. F-you corp America, greedy ass-hles. WFH forever. I am not stepping back in office, ever.
3b,
Everyone wants to get re-elected. They will do anything like calling Powell a worse enemy than China. Watch if this things goes South quick, which it will.
Bystander: Comparing Powell to China is outrageous, but typical in this environment. That being said there were many out who knew he was wrong myself included. And he deserves the blame for not acting earlier. Now inflation is out of control, and we won’t see a soft landing.
crushed,
Many of us worked in mortgage industry back in 2002-2006. I have detailed my experiences working at mortgage bank as well as due diligence firm. The vermin and scum were unparalleled. I remember one slick, tanned arrogant head broker was on way out to his shore house (of course). I worked in small IT group so he walks in and says he caught jr loan processor looking at k*ddie pron. Young, nerdy kid maybe 22. Competent and nice from my experience. We log into his profile and check internet temp files. He was looking at video game reviews and it was one of those japanese anime girls in little attire. We explained and the assh%t still fired kid. As my Irish grandmother said ‘one bite from the dog is enough’. While this blog may think I don’t want to leave my job, I had three rounds and offer from large mortgage servicer company, remote position in Philly about 8 mos ago. Money was a little better ,not way better. I turned it down bc I told woman I don’t trust industry and layoffs will come. Here we go.
I would never cheer on someone losing their job.
The worker got as greedy as the owner during this labor bubble. People getting laid off had it coming. Guarantee the “I won’t work unless it’s from home” are about to get a punch to the face. Lefty, Chi, and I have said it on here numerous times; these people are in for a rude awakening when labor market changes. Hope you listened.
As for real estate in NYC metro: the chances of it getting smashed are slim to none. It’s the safest real estate in the country. I’m not saying it because I live in north jersey, I’m saying it because it is the truth. There is enormous support for real estate in this location.
Bystander says:
May 5, 2022 at 4:48 pm
The best lack of logic is that Blumpy is somehow cheering on job plunge yet NYC area real estate and stocks are untouchable, destined to grow. The Fed is only raising rates to 2.25 this year so they can plunge down to 0% again in 2023. It won’t work. People will be f&ed by then with inflation, tough job market and debt loads.
Doesn’t make sense to me…how do we explain inflation then? Where is the support?
“And those getting a salary bump are the lucky ones: Only 56% of Americans who work full time received a pay increase in the past year, a YouGov survey of 1,500 adults for Forbes Advisor found.”
LGR!!💪🏻🤘🏻
Isn’t it amazing how fast it changes. The economy blows my mind, what a machine.
crushednjmillenial says:
May 5, 2022 at 5:02 pm
A quick turnaround from “best labor market for workers ever” to layoffs upcoming?
How long did the great labor bull market last? One year?
“Doesn’t make sense to me…how do we explain inflation then? ”
Because they can..it is not based on real demand or what consumer can afford. It is not based on how much more expensive labor got. Credit cad debt is rising. People can’t control themselves and horrible at want vs need. Spoiled by easy, free money.
I only had a 3.5% raise and I work in IB Tech… they took care of the junior folks, but not enough to stop the massive attrition
The one in Marlboro? It is generally cheaper than Ocean.
Juice Box says:
May 5, 2022 at 4:36 pm
Cheapest gas in Monmouth county is now Costco at $4.05 a gallon.
If you are boosted, you have a good shot at ducking it. Rapid test like hell. I would wait until Saturday morning. If you feel weird, then you probably fall into the shitter by nightfall. I am guessing a Tuesday exposure, Saturday symptoms, but it took until the following Monday morning until I rapid tested positive. The rapid test are optimized for Alpha, not this variations of Omicron. They can miss it.
GOOD LUCK!
Bystanderd says:
May 5, 2022 at 5:31 pm
F-in GD M-fer. We get mandated back to work into my glass encased barrier room / closet/ fire trap and kid just hired gets COVID. Was there on Tues with him. Two years I avoided this sh&t. F-you corp America, greedy ass-hles. WFH forever. I am not stepping back in office, ever.
chicagofinance says:
May 5, 2022 at 12:21 pm
Flower corporate bonds are retail in that no institutional (professional) buyers would onboard them into portfolios.
Again , thanks for the information. I truly believe I may have screwed up royally .
I bought the first flower bond in my IRA account 6-25-2021. 4.6% interest 12,000 for 104.313 = 12,747.49. present value 10,830.49.Ouch! First call date is 2 -1 – 2025 @100%. JPM Chase bond interest 275 twice a year.
Then on 3-17 2022 I purchased an additional $100,000 in an ordinary account, a screen shot is the best way for me to show it.
03/17/2022 14:45:36 BUY TRADE (89832QAD1), TRUIST FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 4.8%, due , 12/31/2199, Bought 25M @ 99.75
-25,004.17 0.00 0.00
03/17/2022 14:50:37 BUY TRADE (55261FAL8), M & T BANK CORP, 5.0%, due , 12/31/2199, Bought 25M @ 100.65
-25,336.11 0.00 0.00
03/17/2022 14:52:59 BUY TRADE (05565QDV7), BP CAPITAL MARKETS PLC, 4.875%, due , 12/31/2199, Bought 25M @ 101.65
-25,713.80 0.00 0.00
03/17/2022 14:59:39 BUY TRADE (06368B5P9), BANK OF MONTREAL, 4.8%, due , 12/31/2199, Bought 25M @ 99.695
-25,010.42
I originally asked the broker to find me a bond/ CD that was paying me better than the 1% , he assured me these all can be re-sold and may even be bought back @ 2% above my original purchase price. In July I had plans to buy another $100,000 more. That won’t happen after you explained everything to me. I will wait for higher interest rates , and just ladder my money for the next few years.
Sorry I did not see this earlier, my daughter and grand child came in from Ohio last night for her birthday (8.5 hour trip)….she just turned 12. This is what life is all about, wife is on cloud 9. Family was devastated when my daughters husband took a job last year as an AVP for Safelite.
Thank-you again Chi, without the advice I would have continued down that path .
Ocean $4.09
Marlboro $4.05
Hazlet $4.05
gasbuddy.com
Thanks Chi. I am pretty pissed as I knew that room was a freaking incubator. I do feel something but the kids has croup earlier in week. I took test and negative but probably too early as you said.
Crushed: How do we go from it’s an inventory shortage to mortgage people are being laid off all over the country? It wasn’t, all built on hype and hysteria bought on by artificial low interest rates. Real estate will be hit, and it will be hit in the NY metro area as well. It’s never different this time, and it’s proven over and over.
Moody s says 97 percent of US cities are over valued and housing will fall 10 percent over the next few years. It will be more than 10 percent in many areas, but Moodys is on the right track.
Let’s go Mets. 7 in the top of the ninth tonight to beat Nola and the Phillies?
Facebook may be freezing hires, but META is hiring
Like craaaaaazy.
Anybody got some anecdotes from 2008? 2000? 1987? Earlier?
In 1997, two father’s in my neighborhood were out of work, but both put like $5k into dotcom stocks. Their value went up to $500k and they declared themselves day traders instead of looking for work. It all went up in smoke.
In 2005, when I was in grad school, many of the grad students were buying condo’s on their $18k a year stipend. Most of them were forced to move out, rent a small apartment, and rent their condo out for years after grad school in an attempt to break even.
In 2006, my father somehow took all his properties (3 homes and a commercial property in Teaneck) and secured $2 million loans from that. He blew through it all and lost all his properties to foreclosure two years later.
312
Spread on MBS looks to be in the 225 area
So mortgages are 535-area
It sure is feeling like the 70s.
Sh1tty president following corrupt president.
Oil prices rocketing followed by enormous inflation.
Coke and Heroin addiction replaced by cheap Chinese knockoff drug addiction.
Massive black market pot use. Massive legal market pot use.
Interest rates increasing at crazy pace.
Ugly three piece suits back in style with wide ass ties.
Even yacht rock is back!
Freedom isn’t free. You were warned.
It’s time for the middle class to pay up.
Lib: And people seem to be getting angrier!
Sh1tty president following corrupt president.
The current sh1tty president IS a corrupt president.
Lib: Yacht rock, thanks ! Now I got that Chris Cross sailing song in my head!! As for big suits, who wears suits anymore?
Lib: And people seem to be getting angrier!
Years and years of failed liberal policies will turn frustration into violence. After awhile, the excuses become outlandish and focus turns to blind rage.
If the woke crowd running the show goal is to destroy the nation from within, they are doing a mighty fine job. There isn’t a single that is functioning well or not in decline. And they are now flirting with nuclear catastrophe. A corrupt vacuous bag of blood is the front man. Just a superb job all around.
Okay Eddie. Feel free to reverse them.
Market down another 2% to start the day.
Did I write the following piece under a pen name?
Yahoo Finance
Here’s what’s ‘dangerous’ about the latest stock market plunge
Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Editor-at-Large
Fri, May 6, 2022, 7:12 AM
The Fed may no longer be a friend of investors, pros say, and that could be a major headwind to stocks in the near-term.
“What’s dangerous about yesterday’s huge market slump is that there must be an element of doubting the ability of there to be an effective ‘Fed Put’ in this cycle following a 30-40 year period where the central bank has almost always been able to come to the market’s rescue,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,120 points on Thursday, or 3.3%. The S&P 500 tanked 3.7%. As for the Nasdaq Composite, it tanked 5.2% for its worst day since 2020. Amazon shares hit a fresh 52-week low.
“As bad as today was, the VIX Index is not showing sufficient ‘fear’ to indicate a near term bottom,” said the team at DataTrek. The VIX settled at 32.85 on Thursday.
Thursday’s brutal session represented a swift sentiment reversal from Wednesday, when traders breathed a sigh of relief after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank was not considering a 75 basis-point increase in interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 932.27 points and the S&P 500 gained 2.99% on Wednesday, the largest gains for the two indices since 2000. Even the beaten-up Nasdaq Composite popped 3.19%.
As Reid suggested, it now appears that traders have formed a more lasting near-term view that the Fed is far from dovish, has let inflation get out of control, and is still poised to dramatically slow down the economy through a series of 50 basis point rate increases.
“I can’t help but think that a great deal of the reaction yesterday was the appreciation that whilst the Fed can make soothing pronouncements, they are starting from an extraordinary difficult starting point and with limited flexibility to respond to market or economy concerns whilst they fight inflation,” Reid added. “The only conclusion you can draw is that the market quickly realized that the Fed really aren’t going to be able to control this cycle very easily.”
Phil Murphy wants to pass looser abortion laws to protect the state from the federal government returning abortion laws to state discretion. Ah, okay, fodder for the low info folks I guess.
Does recent bearishness persist for over a year? If so, is this the trigger for the NJ State Pension funds to start melting down? (i.e., NJ State funds at $5B+ per year, EVERY YEAR, just to even come closee to treading water, on a total state budget of $45B or so).
Enough with the nuclear catastrophe talk Goat.
You are being silly with this.
Trump would have been threatening nuclear revenge at this point, bragging about our nuclear superiority during the greatest period of military technology ever.
Or, he would have just let Putin invade unobstructed for some commercial property rights.
Ex Fed official Clarida who left in January, says Fed will have to get well into restrictive territory before they stop raising rates.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/08/1085023029/russias-invasion-puts-a-new-light-on-trumps-ukraine-pressure-campaign
The problem is not that Putin is smart — which of course he is smart,” Trump told a crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference. “But the real problem is that our leaders are dumb. Dumb. So dumb.”
As scenes of war and death in Ukraine at the hands of Russia have played out for the world to see on television screens all day for days on end, Trump has changed his tune.
In recent days, he called what’s happening there a “holocaust”; said many times over that the war would never have happened if he were still president; and even called for the U.S. to attack Russia but make it look like it was actually China — by flying American planes with a Chinese flag on the side.
“And then we say, ‘China did it,’ ” Trump told Republican donors Saturday in New Orleans, according to a recording obtained by The Washington Post. ” ‘We didn’t do it — China did it,’ and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch.”
It’s the kind of simple-sounding amateur solution that Trump has floated throughout his political life, one that is impracticable in a complicated world.
GOAT,
Amazing, isn’t it? Actually, it becomes a fascinating study… that of the behavioral patterns of an unhinged sector of American society. The left is beyond mere deflection now and into total destruction mode.
“Lib: And people seem to be getting angrier!”
Or desperate.
The guage on the pressure cook is rising. Financial pressure is going to make things very interesting to say the least.
Carlin said it best, ” sit back and enjoy the show.”
Crushed. It will take more time than this since the market had such an incredible bull run. Even though it is mostly clueless morons that decide what goes into these pension funds, you would have to be deaf, dumb and blind to not have done well in the past 10 years. So well, that even with the drastic underfunding, the pensions only suffered slightly. Double the current decline and it will be headline news. Especially, how do we make the necessary payments with the backdrop of a recession that will require massive layoffs to make ends meet. Perhaps Murphy should have put that 5 billion into surplus?>
Unhinged?
https://tinyurl.com/therealunhinged
The Orange clown is probably seeing less selection in his Eastern European mail order bridge catalog…a ‘holocaust’ to him.
bride
What is it about Roe vs Wade that bothers so many?
Free satellite with new car, put on Patriot channel for entertainment.
Just listened to the guy. But I don’t get it.
Who cares if a woman gets an abortion? Is it not her right anymore than a right to own guns? Is it religion? Is it power and control? Is there some sort of financial angle?
Usually everything boils down to money. I don’t see how money is the angle on this subject.
Honestly I don’t see why someone has to hit that hornet’s nest unless there is something in it to gain somewhere, somehow.
Jeremy Grantham issues housing market warming.
He says:
– A crash in property market would be much more dangerous for the economy than a plunge in stocks.
-Markets including housing are in a super bubble that is about to pop.
Bitcoin is getting hammered too. I thought it was a hedge?
Ah, okay. An escalating confrontation with a nuclear superpower and no discernible off-ramp is just fear mongering. I disagree
It’s become obvious with the latest leaks that this is a NATO Russia war. The rules of engagement have changed. What happens when Russia becomes desperate. They consider it a defensive war. I don’t think they are going to walk away.
“The Great Pumpkin says:
November 16, 2021 at 7:19 pm
Intellectual curiosity. Hmm. This time may very well be different. I know, I know; never speak these words, but it feels different.
Why? What has this year taught us? That retail is no longer some easy fish to prey upon by the buffet investor class. The stock market is not the economy. Old school market, fundamentals mattered…because every single individual was using it and adhering to its laws. Guess what, lefty, your young hungry investors don’t give a f’k about your old rules. AMC says f u to your old rules. It had the largest gains based on large stocks..why? I don’t know how long it will last, but psychology matters more than the books. They understand this right now, and are using it to give it to the fundamental based old school investment class. Again, don’t know how long it lasts, but acknowledge it.
“Sophisticated investors know the risks, but a large chunk of the buying has come from retail traders—ordinary people making transactions via popular platforms like Robinhood. Those less experienced investors are less likely to perform bottom-up fundamental analysis, so a rally driven by them is more likely to be driven by other factors, including hope for short-term gains.
But none of this necessarily means the market is in a bubble. “Yes, we know: There are lots of signs of speculative bubbles in the broad stock market,” wrote analysts at Yardeni Research. “Not everything is in a bubble.””
https://apple.news/Atr3sQP2QR-imxlps9k6kbg“
I do not fear nukes in the hands of political leaders. I fear nukes in the hands of radical terrorists. Putin may be an asshole. Putin is no terrorist.
The truth is, even the smallest use of a tactical nuclear weapon will result in the end of your command and most likely, your country. I also thing calmer minds will prevail to avoid a nuclear holocaust as the result of even a terrorists use of nukes. With nukes, no one wins. The Soviets learned this at the Bay of Pigs. If they didn’t use them then, they I hardly consider the war in Ukraine a threat now.
It’s obvious, there is only a nuclear threat when there is a Democrat in the White House. You are a one trick pony.
“It’s become obvious with the latest leaks that this is a NATO Russia war. The rules of engagement have changed. What happens when Russia becomes desperate. They consider it a defensive war. I don’t think they are going to walk away.”
You may be right.
Corner a cat…..
Let’s not also be so dismissive of the economic and political fallout from the Russia Ukraine proxy war. They will be huge.
It’s hard to understand how the Ukraine operation made any sense except to insiders like the Bidens who looted the place. This was a very predictable outcome.
Its no wonder 0bama and the deep state were so desperate to destroy trump. If the involvement over there was disclosed in a matter of fact way it would have been a scandal. Opposing foreign meddling and returninge in the deep state made him a major threat.
Libturd says:
March 4, 2021 at 1:10 pm
I just looked and the market is dying again today. My gut tells me there is another rally before the sh1t hits the fan, because we haven’t seen a post-pandemic society in a very long time. I think the closest thing we can compare this too would be a post WWII economy. But it should be short-lived as this bull market is so overextended, I thought it was popping 3 years ago. Then again, today’s FED is willing to do ANYTHING so who knows. I do know this. We can’t print our way to prosperity nor not tax the wealthy in this country and expect smooth sailing.
As for economic indicators? Yes, I watch the ten-year closely. Second, I watch prices of oil/housing/food, etc. Though, time is what I watch more than anything, with a sprinkling of looking for people saying, “this time it’s different,” and excessive P/Es and PEGs in stocks.
Kennedy did pull the nukes out of Europe. Kruschev got his way.
I don’t think the imminent threat is a nuke here. It would be in Kyiv. From there, anybody knows. Turn Ukraine into a wasteland and Putin gets his buffer. But let’s all pretend it would never happen.
Was dead on. Market is a casino and not science based (Buffet and Munger agree…said it last week). Thanks for the share. Now in hindsight we see what broke the market psychology…supply chain inflation.
Stand by this post….market is 90% psychology based and 10% fundamentals. If stock market was science based, you would never see boom and busts. No one would lose big money and no one would make big money. That’s clearly not the case. Nothing is ever correctly valued and it all follows the cycles triggered by the FED. Now that the FED is doom and gloom, the market reflects it. When they go bullish, so will the market. AKA the FED is all that matters, not your fundamentals.
Where fundamentals help is knowing where the money will flow in reaction to the FED. Follow the lemmings as they leave one sector and pump another in reaction to the FED. It’s as simple as that. Look at how overvalued inflation based trades have become? The bubble went from high growth to the value based inflationary plays. All based on market psychology. Just follow the flow of money. Thing is, to make money, you have to be ahead of the flows….when it gets pumped up, you have to sell into the wave…when it gets oversold (like what’s currently happening), you have to start buying. That’s all that matters, being ahead of the flows in whatever direction they will go. Then you do the complete opposite of the flows and you will make lots of money over each cycle.
“Guess what, lefty, your young hungry investors don’t give a f’k about your old rules. AMC says f u to your old rules. It had the largest gains based on large stocks..why? I don’t know how long it will last, but psychology matters more than the books. They understand this right now, and are using it to give it to the fundamental based old school investment class. Again, don’t know how long it lasts, but acknowledge it”
Some more idiocy from the one who lacks self awareness.
January 12, 2021 at 4:54 pm
“I was in PLUG and you talked me out of it based on the fundamentals. I’m not making that mistake again. This is not buffet’s market anymore, faster you realize it, the faster you will start making money. Buffet is a value investor in a world where the fed always comes to the rescue. Why would you chase value that is never going to be there. That’s all he did, was buy overly discounted shares in companies and sat on it.
Today’s avg investor is so much smarter. Buffet can’t do what he did, because everyone copied him. It’s common investor knowledge now. You have to be ahead of the game. A lot of young investor’s that buy that dip and are not afraid. Avg old school investor was not as smart as today’s avg investor. They continuously lost money selling on the dip and buying on the high, trying to time the market. New investors buy the dip and buy it hard. New game against a much smarter opponent.
Old school fundamental investors got eaten alive against the new investors buying Tesla. Absolutely ate them up and spit them out. The game has changed. They can’t as easily shake that tree anymore and cause panic. You have a bunch of people who just buy the index, dollar cost avg, and call it a day. That’s insane support levels. The market has never experienced this.
This market today is about risk, you can get burned, but you also can be rewarded handsomely. If you are not in the market right now, you are falling quickly behind the people that are.
To each and their own….this bull would have kept going if we had not hit a pandemic. Think about that for a second. We are in a special time, now is not the time to apply avg’s to an anomaly. GREATEST ECONOMIC RUN OF OUR LIFETIME. I screamed and shouted it on this blog, but no one listened. I did this for years. and you laughed at me. Well, what is happening right before your eyes?
January 12, 2021 at 5:48 pm
99 dot com is different from today. It’s drastically different. The crypto market is more like 99 dot com bubble. People were just slapping .com on their name for God’s sake. Add in low interest rates, and it’s just different today.
Plus, the fed did not realize the control it had in 1999. 2008 was a game changer. The fed finally figured it out. If they can save that sinking ship, they can save anything if applied correctly.
January 12, 2021 at 5:51 pm
Dollar cost avg every month at 3,000 a clip. Wont sell for at least 5 years, goal is to hit 10. Innovation winners will be clear as day at that point. Will then find my next investment.
Libturd says:
January 12, 2021 at 5:26 pm
The Great Pumpkin strikes again.
Let us know what price you bought ARK and what price you sold it.
Market Psychology is a bitch. It really is. That’s why the market is irrational. During a bubble, you know it’s overvalued, but does it matter if market psychology doesn’t give a f/k? They just keep buying. If the market becomes a fire sale, why does no one buy? Why do they continue to sell….market psychology is a bitch.
You had people jumping hands over feet to pay for overvalued stocks, but when they become a bargain, it’s almost impossible to find a buyer. It really is comical.
Buffet is not the king of investing anymore. Sorry, not sorry.
Don’t use a period when the FED is tightening liquidity and lowering rates due to supply chain induced inflation to run victory laps. It’s all a part of the cycle. And when the FED goes dovish, value investors will get left behind again. They lost 9 out of the past 10 years being in value, and we want to treat these as the winners?
Low rates are here to stay. As soon as inflation is over, we will go back to the same chit we have been dealing with the past 10 years…FED working overtime to prop up inflation against deflationary headwinds.
Libturd says:
May 6, 2022 at 11:10 am
Some more idiocy from the one who lacks self awareness.
BITG,
Putin could do that. Then America could provide Ukraine with some tactical nukes to launch on Russia.
Will Russia be angry enough to launch against America and NATO then?
Guess we will find out won’t we. But I wouldn’t put it past Russia just yet.
“That’s why the market is irrational.”
Is it? Or is that “irrationality” just a marketing ploy by social media?
Lib,
Remember, not all these people held. People that made big money sold….that’s why the price dropped in those high flying stocks. They took the money and ran into defensive inflation plays….leaving the majority holding the bag till the next run. Once they start cashing out, it causes the price to drop, then when the majority see the price drop, they start acting on it. It changes the momentum on the stocks. That’s why lefty/brt had such an easy time shorting this. It really is that easy.
That’s what cathie wood is dealing with now. Her thesis isn’t broken, she couldn’t sell the bubble, but others could and did. She now has to wait till market psychology embraces high growth again and they will (why do you think she keeps doubling down?…she knows this). When? Who knows, but they will. Why? People are greedy, and the best gains when a new bull market begins are in high growth esp if dealing with stagflation. They will all jump in and chase it up.
If market was rational, you would never see bubbles and you would never see major busts. Understand this. Where is all the money made in the stock market…on the backs of booms and busts. Selling into euphoria and buying the fear.
Phoenix says:
May 6, 2022 at 11:30 am
“That’s why the market is irrational.”
Is it? Or is that “irrationality” just a marketing ploy by social media?
https://youtu.be/tQzk09j2lZ8
SFW
Putin views it as an existential conflict. By inviting NATO into Ukraine, a red line was crossed. We don’t know what his contingencies are.
I doubt they include nuclear holocaust.
So tell me. What would have the Republican president have done? Withheld support for the Ukraine since they wouldn’t investigate Hunter?
Seriously. You can do better than this.
Existential conflict? That is a great leap.
Her average buy on Shopify was $1200. It’s pushing below $400. Some people are still waiting on Cisco. She’ll be dead before it ever reaches those values again. Jokes on the investors that pay her fees.
Phoenix says:
May 6, 2022 at 10:25 am
What is it about Roe vs Wade that bothers so many?
Phoenix:
Abortion was always a catholic church issue. The southern conservatives latch on to it as a rallying call in the early 70’s after the US Dept of Education and an IRS ruling forbade private school racial discrimination. In short if you discriminated you could not be non-profit. As you know the modus operandi of the south is if it’s public entities don’t spend money on it because minorities use it. The good stuff is kept in the private world.
Now the catholic church had always had a very perverted pedo taliban wing. One of the revelations after the Boston Globe pedo catholic scandal was the link with the military and power structure. In Chile, certain orphanages were kept and curated as the defacto Harem of the catholic, military, business elites.
The catholic taliban wing and the russian orthodox church have a lot in common, you see a bit in Putin. These bastards come from there, is about power, is about I own you and I can demean you and you can do nothing about it because the law was written by me under divine right and the power of the state, whether you are a pregnant 25 year old woman or 12 year old boy. By the way, the demeaning part hits the spot of the southern conservatives which love to demean a lot anyone that is not part of their inbred clan (race, economically, religious affilition, etc). In short peas of a pod stick together. Just look at the Southern Baptist Convention and their ongoing sex scandals with underage girls.
Remember the 1000 yrs of the dark ages, the inquisition. Hell the problem with the present russian orthodox church is that they never encountered a Martin Luther, a reformation and never adapted to religious competition.
To understand how deep the sinister behavior of the catholic RICO is perceived in many Latin American countries watch Sr. Avila. Is a HBO series in Spanish starring “Better Call Saul – Lalo” Tony Dalton. Is about a hitman moving up the ranks. In the final season he hit the glass ceiling, because above that the catholic mob runs the crime world. Is loosely based on the PRI – The political party that ran Mexico as an one party state for over 80 years and the well known link between the catholic, military, policie, business, criminal, political, media infrastructure.
“What is it about Roe vs Wade that bothers so many?”
Had three dinners the past two nights (not a typo), another tonight. Wide range of participants. No one is bothered at all about Roe…
As I mentioned previously outside the wacky left and right (20% of the population making 95% of the noise) the average person I know – left and right – sees this as a States rights type issue….ie, no big deal, everyone just do what your population wants.
Read a good article this morning, forgot the source but credible, will try to find. Basically went back to Ginsberg’s criticisms of the original Roe decision being far too over reaching and her predicting these ongoing issues because of that.
“31 days Pumpkin-free”
CONGRATS to 3b!!!!
Phoenix,
Is a bit of circular logic, but it works in the real world.
The power of the state enforces the law that was put in place by a “religious sect”.
The fact that the law exist, requires people to accept the power of the “religious sect”.
The “religious sect” can claim “divine right” becasue they were able to executed into place, which means a divine entity favors them.
The “religious sect” claims powers and benefit from the “divine rigth” access.
I disagree Leftwing. And the worst part of the whole anti-abortion movement is that it will not curtail abortions one iota. It will just cause a lot of deaths and permanent injury to a lot of poor women. Of course there will be an increase in mental issues too as many people with unwanted pregnancies, especially the poorest, will be forced to raise an unwanted child. But fear not. The wealthy will still have access to safe abortions. Even in these states where the practice is banned.
What’s your take on this?
https://missouriindependent.com/2021/03/24/abortion-amendment-puts-bill-to-finance-missouri-medicaid-program-in-limbo/
Pump are you still going all in and to the moon with DNA?
I think Pumps should purchase DNA. And replace his own with it.
US Higher Education Financing Policy . . .
Any 18-year old can sign up for any amount of debt, to study any major, at any higher education institution, at any tuition. Hardly any guardrails.
This man is smarter than Jeff Bezos. Changes his mind within 13 minutes!
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 6, 2022 at 11:10 am
Was dead on. Market is a casino and not science based (Buffet and Munger agree…said it last week).
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 6, 2022 at 11:23 am
Buffet is not the king of investing anymore. Sorry, not sorry.
Yes. Love it. Has the potential to return big time if things go right over this decade. Talking 50 to 10o times…
Love the management. With some luck and execution, this will be a huge winner if things go correctly.
Fintech says:
May 6, 2022 at 12:37 pm
Pump are you still going all in and to the moon with DNA?
Buffet has not done great since 2000. That’s all I am saying. He still did well because of his huge influence on the market, but he missed a lot. Put it this way: musk had nothing in 2000, and how much now? He blew Buffet out the door. So who understands this era from 2000 on better? Sure looks like Musk, not the value investor.
PumpkinFace says:
May 6, 2022 at 12:50 pm
This man is smarter than Jeff Bezos. Changes his mind within 13 minutes!
Buffet didn’t have the advantage of government subsidies. Additionally, not all of Buffet’s eggs are in one basket. Musk could lose 3/4 of his net worth over the next year. Buffett, probably 1/4 at most. But you wouldn’t understand this. You don’t invest. You gamble.
Fr Sarducci,
Interesting. I also notice all Presidents mention God in their speeches. No separation of church and state.
It always seemed like “God” was used to justify some sort of action someone wanted to do- as if he gave permission or something. Just weird.
I’m sure the R v W anger is more pronounced in the states where the restrictions will be. It will hit the youth hardest as they will have the most difficulty traveling. Probably will have drug dealers selling the “morning after” pill for top dollar, possibly laced with Fentanyl next. I guess this will eliminate those filthy teenage sinners.
What is it with America lately. Damn place is like a tinderbox and all these freaks are now running around with matches lighting fires all over the country.
Doesn’t anyone like peace? Everything is a damn struggle anymore.
Show me a value based ETF that beat high growth over the last decade. Hell, show me a value based ETF that beat arkk etf since ark’s inception.
It’s what I’ve been preaching Phoenix. Politicians no longer do what is best for the country. Only what will give the party the most power. All of these decisions, from the Democrats Wokeness to the Republican’s Chrisitianity is only about power. I can guarantee you, 100% of them are against abortion until they impregnate their mistresses.
BTW the reviews on that series look good.
Finishing up Ozark. Bosch is back under another name.
Needed a new series.
And just remember when you are comparing the high growth etfs to the value etfs….we are currently in the bottom of the cycle for high growth disruptive tech. Yet, it still smashing value long-term.
Show me a disruptor that beat Berkshire Hathaway since it’s inception. Now think which name was more risk adverse. You are a gambler. You just don’t know it because you are so non-self aware.
In the end, Value always wins. Over short periods of time, anything can happen. Heck.
You can play all of the spots on the roulette table. 1-36 + the 0 and the 00, for $38. You are guaranteed to get back $35. Or you can put all $38 on any of those individual 38 numbers. If you hit, you get back $1,330 instead of $35.
Which are you going to do?
BS.
First of all, Buffet has a bunch of lemmings that follow his every move. He’s also using insider information. Think about that for a second. Yet, he still getting passed up by high growth.
Why is value no longer the play? Wake up. We have massive debt which is deflationary by nature. Why do you think high growth has been beating the chit out of the rest of the market over the last 20 years? Why do you think the rates keep going down? Go ahead, keep chasing value in a deflationary environment. Good luck.
Why do you think inflation was barely existent the past 20 years without the help of the FED? Think LIB!!
Libturd says:
May 6, 2022 at 1:08 pm
Show me a disruptor that beat Berkshire Hathaway since it’s inception. Now think which name was more risk adverse. You are a gambler. You just don’t know it because you are so non-self aware.
In the end, Value always wins. Over short periods of time, anything can happen. Heck.
“I disagree Leftwing. And the worst part of the whole anti-abortion movement is that it will not curtail abortions one iota…What’s your take on this?”
Exactly where I started…if the good citizens of NJ and NY want free abortion on demand and the good citizens of Missouri don’t, each seems like the reasonable answer to me.
By what right does AOC have a say as to what occurs in Jefferson City, and by what right do the the citizens of Jefferson City get a say in the governance and laws of NY?
Hint: They don’t.
From a purely personal perspective as I’ve stated before I really don’t care into which orifice one prefers to jam their junk and by extension the outcome of such activities is really none of my business either.
Again, if you are in the middle of cacophony on this topic I respectfully suggest you are in the room with either the Left or Right crazies. Zoom the lens out.
So chase the value, I sure as hell am not. It’s a bubble now. Value was the play the last year because inflation got out of hand, but screw that long-term. You think the bear market will last forever? You think high rates will last? You think the FED won’t pump stimulus to aid growth and try to keep inflation going?
I am zoomed out. For a party hellbent against regulation, why are they also hellbent on telling women what they can do with their bodies? What’s next? Do you support freedom or not? This is not about wearing a seatbelt or yelling fire in a crowded theater.
How long before states can ban intercourse or force the harvesting of sperm and eggs?
On this one, I think you are backwards. So does the vast majority of the population of our country. This is about one thing. Power. It’s the antithesis of democracy.
“You can play all of the spots on the roulette table. 1-36 + the 0 and the 00, for $38. You are guaranteed to get back $35. Or you can put all $38 on any of those individual 38 numbers. If you hit, you get back $1,330 instead of $35. Which are you going to do?”
Strange game professor….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpmGXeAtWUw&ab_channel=Movieclips
“I am zoomed out…How long before states can ban intercourse or force the harvesting of sperm and eggs?”
Love you like a brother Lib, but does the above indicate you may be firmly seated in a BarcaLounger in the room?
It is entirely about control. Which is why it was a bad decision to begin…put the decisions back down to the States where it belongs.
Whatever the citizenry of any State wants, they should get. The Feds should have never assumed control with this ruling.
Left: Congrats to you too!! We did it!! Was not near as difficult as I thought it would be. I am better for it and so is the blog. We will keep moving ahead !
31 days comment free!!
Going to be an ugly recession , and the blow off in housing will be big. 20 percent gain in a year, perfectly normal, demand blah, blah! BS, massive bubble. Fed will tighten until it kills inflation, and pops the bubble. They are not coming to the rescue this time. Hopefully, we are getting back to a real market.
Thank you! Much easier replying to your nonsense without having to listen to you respond.
3b says:
May 6, 2022 at 1:32 pm
Left: Congrats to you too!! We did it!! Was not near as difficult as I thought it would be. I am better for it and so is the blog. We will keep moving ahead !
31 days comment free!!
Keep telling yourself that. The minute inflation is down, they will have to provide stimulus to prop it back up. The only reason we have strong inflation right now is because of supply chain issues in a hot economy. Demand overwhelmed supply and it’s as simple as that.
So don’t be naive and think that the FED won’t be coming to the rescue.
3b says:
May 6, 2022 at 1:37 pm
Going to be an ugly recession , and the blow off in housing will be big. 20 percent gain in a year, perfectly normal, demand blah, blah! BS, massive bubble. Fed will tighten until it kills inflation, and pops the bubble. They are not coming to the rescue this time. Hopefully, we are getting back to a real market.
Lib, please don’t discount because of the source…read the actual text below…..
The very last quote below – by Ginsberg herself – is exactly the text and logic of the Alito opinion if you’ve read it. Almost verbatim. And recall Alito and Ginsberg were best personal friends, vacationing and spending holidays together, etc.
Nationwide abortion regulation – whether banning or permitting – is simply not and never should have been the purview of SCOTUS. It is a political/legislative issue.
Although Ginsburg firmly advocated for women’s access to abortion as a constitutional right, she criticized the way in which Roe v. Wade established that right – and her reasoning for this nuanced position may shed light on the current debate…
Should the court indeed strike down Roe in this manner, it might vindicate Ginsburg’s concerns about the pivotal decision.
Ginsburg warned against major judicial shifts in a 1992 lecture at New York University, citing Roe as an example.
“Measured motions seem to me right, in the main, for constitutional as well as common law adjudication,” she argued. “Doctrinal limbs too swiftly shaped, experience teaches, may prove unstable. The most prominent example in recent decades is Roe v. Wade.”
Ginsburg noted that Roe struck down far more than the specific Texas criminal abortion statute at issue in the case.
“Suppose the court had stopped there, rightly declaring unconstitutional the most extreme brand of law in the nation, and had not gone on, as the court did in Roe, to fashion a regime blanketing the subject, a set of rules that displaced virtually every state law then in force,” she said. “A less encompassing Roe, one that merely struck down the extreme Texas law and went no further on that day, I believe and will summarize why, might have served to reduce rather than to fuel controversy.”…
Ginsburg went on to contrast the court’s landmark decision in Roe with a slew of decisions from 1971 to 1982 in which the court struck down “a series of state and federal laws that differentiated explicitly on the basis of sex.”
Rather than creating a new philosophy of law and imposing it on the nation immediately, “the court, in effect, opened a dialogue with the political branches of government.”
“In essence, the court instructed Congress and state legislatures: rethink ancient positions on these questions,” Ginsburg noted. “The ball, one might say, was tossed by the justices back into the legislators’ court, where the political forces of the day could operate.”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/why-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-disapproved-of-roe-v-wade
Jeez-Louise Pumps.
Why does everything have to be so black and white with you? You are so incredibly dense. For the past three years I was 80% vested in Large Cap Growth. In the past three years prior to my perfectly timed selloff late last year, I made about 120%. The rest of my investing and retirement money (not counting my 2 homes) was in a S&P500 fund. I had the best decade of my life. Throw in my perfectly timed purchase of my Glen Ridge home which also increased in value by nearly 130% and I’m absolutely rolling in it. So much so that I’ve paid nearly half a million for my brain-injured son’s health care and it hasn’t even left a mark. My performance has been extraordinary. If I published it with the proof, I would have a best selling book for sure. My market timing has been impeccable. Market timing is supposed to be a fools game. And I guarantee you, the amount of risk I have taken in achieving my investment success remains incredibly low. I’ve already shared with you most of my secrets.
It’s hard to nearly impossible to beat the benchmarks. Most people don’t have the discipline necessary. It’s the same with my Advantage Play gambling. I’m headed to AC this weekend as a matter of fact. There are some juicy promotions. Whenever I run into a professional gambler and we strike up a conversation, I often ask them what percentage of the population they think have the ability to make money at a casino? The number always varies from 1 in 200 to about 1 in 2,000. Everyone can easily do the math and memorize the holds and practice to play perfectly. What everyone lacks is the discipline.
So you can go to a financial advisor, pay them a lofty fee for their discipline. Or you can be disciplined yourself. But most can not stop themselves from gambling. You are in this group. On the bright side, you are no alone.
Lib,
I don’t argue with your performance. You did a hell of a job. I am only arguing that value investing does not work like it once did. The FED changed the game. They don’t let massive busts happen, and always come to the rescue….this destroys value investing and plays to high growth.
You know damn well the only reason the FED has stepped up the pain right now is because inflation got out of control. They have no choice. If inflation had not got out of control and was indeed transitory, they would have never slammed this market like they did. They want inflation, but just not this much in that it creates issues with price stability from day to day.
I mean is it a coincidence that bull markets are lasting so long now? Hell no. Is is a coincidence that there are no major busts anymore? Hell no.
Just understand this inflation is not sustainable. It’s not…simply impossible long-term.
Let’s see what the landscape looks like after the great unwinding.
“Whatever the citizenry of any State wants, they should get.”
I get this. But what happens when you are a minor and get pregnant? You are a citizen with no rights at all.
And many times, that’s when it happens. Especially without access to birth control.
So a mistake when you are 16 (legislatively) becomes a lifetime change that you cannot undo. (Unless you are rich enough to go get it done out of state)
I wish my state could have opted out of sending my tax dollars to Ukraine.
America has 33 Billion dollars to send to Ukraine, but not to provide healthcare for Americans. Or to fix the roads here. Or to pay down the deficit.
That 33 billion would come in handy helping some of us who, thankfully for the general public, don’t get to work from home and have to pay high prices for fuel just for the pleasure of being able to treat Granny for her broken hip.
Make America Great Again. Well, let’s just say 260 dollar/ barrel oil isn’t helping most Americans except for a select few.
Doc told me a story about a young woman.
22 year old. Came from California to the Republic of NJ.
Had some sort of California health insurance.
Needed GYN basic care. Went to a doctor. She told the receptionist she had insurance, but she didn’t think it would work in another state in the same country and that she would like to just pay.
Receptionist said “let me check. Oh yeah, it will work.”
They billed the insurance which didn’t cover it.
Cash for everything would have been 200.00.
Instead, total bill for pap smear with cultures came to 1500.00. Most of it Quest Diagnostics.
Can’t undo, can’t appeal. Dopey receptionist cost her 1300.00
But we have 33 Billion for Ukraine.
Lib: In my view and others and some of these folks are super bright and major accomplishments, the Fed put is over, and perfect for a long, long time. They realize they make a huge error, and the supply chain. Transitory, was just a small part of the more fundamental screw up by the Fed for so long.
Now they have the opportunity to do a reset, with large rate increases to clean up the mess they made. Reset, start over.
Well, at least wage gains won’t be supporting inflation. I have to think inflation will be coming down once these supply chains get fixed, which could take years (hopefully not), but we will see what happens. Tough situation for the FED, that’s for sure.
“Wage gains in the leisure and hospitality industry, which exceeded 13% annually in November and December, eased to 11% year-over-year in April. Transportation and warehousing industries saw wages rise 7.1% on the year to April, down from 7.7% in March.
And in retail, wages year over year were up 4.9% in April, slowing from March’s 6.1%. Retail sector wages on a monthly basis fell 0.4% in April from March.
The fact that wage gains have stabilized while inflation has continued to accelerate should be a comforting sign for the Federal Reserve, economists said.
It suggests that labor costs are not likely to aggravate inflation pressures in the near term, which are being largely driven by supply-chain problems and higher energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine, Mr. Coulton said.
“If wage growth stabilizes at these levels over the course of the summer, I think [Fed officials] will become more confident in their forecast that wage growth will slow in 2023,” he said.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said the central bank’s rate increases are intended to take some pressure off the labor market, which he described in March as “tight to an unhealthy level.”
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point following its meeting this week and hinted that more such raises could be coming at future meetings.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-eclipses-aprils-historically-strong-wage-gains-11651854549
Rates have been falling for 40 years. You really think this is the end of it? You really think they will hit a “hard restart” of the economy? Just don’t see it.
The only reason this is all happening right now is because of covid lockdowns. Businesses thought demand would drop and acted on it. They totally f/ing blew it. Once you shut down production, you can’t just hit restart. They totally f/ed the world supply chains. So it wasn’t the FED, it was the businesses that shut down in anticipation of less demand that totally spurred out of control inflation at a time it was almost impossible. The FED tried for how long to get higher inflation? This was the only thing that actually created strong inflation.
3b says:
May 6, 2022 at 2:49 pm
Lib: In my view and others and some of these folks are super bright and major accomplishments, the Fed put is over, and perfect for a long, long time. They realize they make a huge error, and the supply chain. Transitory, was just a small part of the more fundamental screw up by the Fed for so long.
Now they have the opportunity to do a reset, with large rate increases to clean up the mess they made. Reset, start over.
I’m so glad the Fed is comfortable. That’s really important to the middle class and those who are struggling.
It’s nice to know your government is happy that individuals are paying more for everyday expenses while getting a smaller paycheck.
Goes to show you who owns and who runs our government. It’s not the people that’s for damn sure.
“The fact that wage gains have stabilized while inflation has continued to accelerate should be a comforting sign for the Federal Reserve, economists said.”
Phoenix: Big business and public sector unions control this country. The rest of us just do what we do.
You are always going to have some struggling…we live in a capitalist system, and by its very nature, this is how it works. The beautiful thing, you can improve your position in the system. It’s not easy, but it is possible.
Phoenix says:
May 6, 2022 at 3:05 pm
I’m so glad the Fed is comfortable. That’s really important to the middle class and those who are struggling.
Libturd says: “Trump would have been threatening nuclear revenge at this point…Or, he would have just let Putin invade unobstructed…”
Bystander says: “The Orange clown is probably seeing less selection…”
Geez, the TDS is thick today. Of course, if I knew that I’d someday have to explain to my grandchildren why I voted for Joe and Carmella, I’d probably resort to excuses and deflection as well. But even with all of their nonsense, the Dem apologists inadvertently pose an interesting hypothetical: given that Joe’s brief tenure has been so disastrous, what would things look like today if T was still prez? Here are few ways in which we’d all be so much better off…
1. There would be no war in Europe — Vlad needed both a hefty war chest and a weak, incompetent US in order to feel confident enough to invade Ukraine. Joe gave him both; he lit the fuse on energy prices by ceding pricing power to OPEC+Russia, and his abominable handling of Afghanistan made US incompetence as clear as day.
2. Inflation would not be raging — Again, Joe lit the fuse on energy prices and sky-rocketing energy prices lit the fuse on inflation. Would not have happened under T.
3. The southern border would be secure and immigration policy would be coherent — the millions of illegals that are now in the country would instead be waiting in Mexico for hearings to determine if they truly, legally qualify for refugee status.
It is always good to know the cult is thinking these days. Not much as usual. That is best fluffing this side of San Fernando Valley. Of course, mushroom sized fluffing does not much effort apparently.
FabMax travelled to Mexico to attend.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/06/nazi-themed-wedding-in-mexico-celebrates-hitlers-reign/
SmallGov,
Accurate assessment. How does the other side counter? They can’t, so the best they can do is secrete some oral discharge and immerse themselves with another swig of 90 proof denial.
https://freakonomics.com/2005/05/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/
“Whatever the citizenry of any State wants, they should get…I get this. But what happens when you are a minor and get pregnant? You are a citizen with no rights at all. So a mistake when you are 16 (legislatively) becomes a lifetime change that you cannot undo.”
You know I like you Phoenix so this is not meant to be obnoxious, just blunt to make the point…
So what. Are you a minor in that State? Parent of a minor in that State (whose opinion may very well differ from his minor)? If not, then what the fuck business is it of yours? Seriously.
So you as a resident of NJ feel entitled to opine and legislate over the citizens of MO or AL…alright….how about paying some attention to your own State first. It is functionally bankrupt, infrastructure crumbling, and the most highly taxed. Since all those public pensions are a ponzi scheme and they cannot mathematically be paid out to those relying upon them, life changing event, how about we recruit a few dozen MO and AL residents to legislate over NJ matters?
I am for limiting Federal power at every juncture except in the narrow instances delineated in the Constitution.
We would not even have a Constitution to debate were it not for the States rights clause as we would not have a Union.
The fact that the SCOTUS opinion we are discussing is abortion is entirely irrelevant to me. The topic does not matter. What Alito’s opinion makes clear, entirely aligned with Ginsberg’s 1992 NYU address, is that the Court needs to step back from legislating from the bench and these political matters need to remain the realm of Fed/State governments and their citizens through the legislative process. That excites me. Reduce Federal power and move it to the people of the States. How is that bad?
Especially taking my point above of what standing do you have to jam your nose into another State’s matters when it literally has no impact on you whatsoever.
“I wish my state could have opted out of sending my tax dollars to Ukraine.”
I agree.
But you forfeited that option when you gave up more of your individual rights to the Federal government on Feb 3, 1913….
LW,
Point taken. I just have more latitude towards the youth- they are trapped by the bad decisions made by their parents.
What right do I have? Well, I’m not legislating anything. Do I feel I should, actually no, I don’t.
Doesn’t mean I can’t feel sorry for some young woman in another state who doesn’t want a child but can’t get out of the trap that the adults in her state put her in.
Doesn’t mean I can’t feel sorry for the unwanted child that is born.
Doesn’t mean I want to force another state to live by my ideals.
I know this cause I am already trapped by my own states rules. I can’t even save my own child from the system here. She doesn’t have any rights herself.
So many adults think they know better. Some do, but plenty do not.
We have 80 + year old goats running the show written by a guy who was 21 who basically invented the whole thing.
How old were the Founding Fathers when the Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776?
Some were older, like Thomas Jefferson who was 33, John Hancock who was 39, or Benjamin Franklin who was 70. Others were shockingly young — even teenagers. James Monroe, for example, was 18 and Alexander Hamilton was 21.
All Things Liberty compiled a list of the ages of key people during the American Revolution (a period spanning from 1765–1783) when the Declaration of Independence was signed.
Here’s everyone who was younger than 30 on July 4, 1776, including a few signers of the nation-changing document:
Andrew Jackson, 9
(Major) Thomas Young, 12
Deborah Sampson, 15
James Armistead, 15
Sybil Ludington, 15
Joseph Plumb Martin, 15
Peter Salem, 16
Peggy Shippen, 16
Marquis de Lafayette, 18
James Monroe, 18
Charles Pinckney, 18
Henry Lee III, 20
Gilbert Stuart, 20
John Trumbull, 20
Aaron Burr, 20
John Marshall, 20
Nathan Hale, 21
Banastre Tarleton, 21
Alexander Hamilton, 21
John Laurens, 21
Benjamin Tallmadge, 22
Robert Townsend, 22
George Rogers Clark, 23
David Humphreys, 23
Gouveneur Morris, 24
Betsy Ross, 24
William Washington, 24
James Madison, 25
The 1913 thing I wasn’t around for. But I was when Bush in 2002 took away more freedom from Americans than ever before.
He didn’t have my vote for that.
And if we don’t want to dictate things to other states- how about those unable to have children anymore no longer have a say in this matter at all?
Why should some 80 year old get to vote on something that is none of her business when her well has been dry for over 30 years?
And although Ginsberg did not like the ruling the way it went down, it doesn’t appear that she was anti-abortion.
Irony is that had she left sooner the chances of it being overturned (whether you agree or not) would have been less.
As I have stated before, I have been an active participant in actual abortions. Part of the job, I get paid to do what I am told.
Never believed in the “hero” thing. When you get paid, it’s a career, you are no longer a “hero.” You are doing your job. So this has nothing to do with my thoughts.
I just know things don’t always go as planned. And some can’t handle it. It’s sad that one doesn’t get to control their destiny in America thanks to those that legislate thinking they know better.
Hah, denial Ed? Here is some denial..he f-in lost. Move on.
Sure is.
“This is becoming a unique opportunity for growth investors. Its been a while and last time we only had a short window. 2020. The next 6 months will present a great opportunity for long term investors. Be patient.”
Who wins next 5 years? Have to have balls to go Berkshire Hathaway.
“After a >70% decline, the ARK Innovation ETF has now given back all of its gains since the start of 2020.
Total returns since Jan 1, 2020…
Berkshire Hathaway $BRKB: +39%
ARK Innovation $ARKK: -7%
Charting via @ycharts”
What about an ectopic pregnancy. What if your daughter was raped by a serial killer? I don’t see it as a state or federal thing at all. I support your argument if it was not a right we were talking about. States should not regulate what you do to your body if it has no deterrent or benefit to anyone else.
Worst all, the banning of abortion is punitive against only ONE person and it takes TWO to even make it an option. States that choose to ban abortion are no better than countries that require Sharia Law. Actually. They are much worse.
I’ll put my money on queen knife catcher Cathie winning that 5 year race, only because Warren isn’t making it to age 96.