From NJ1015:
Extended unemployment insurance to expire for 80,000 NJ workers
Eighty-eight weeks of unemployment benefits triggered by the coronavirus pandemic are coming to a close.
The New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development announced Thursday that approximately 80,000 New Jersey workers are due to exhaust extended unemployment insurance in the coming weeks, and they won’t be able to receive additional unemployment assistance until new earnings and work history requirements are met.
Claimants in this pool will have benefited from 26 weeks of regular state unemployment, up to 49 weeks of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation that ended Sept. 4, and up to 13 weeks of state Extended Benefits that followed.
“We have distributed $37.5 billion in benefits to help more than 1.5 million claimants through the darkest days of the pandemic,” said Labor Commissioner Robert Asaro-Angelo. “Our team now stands ready to help these workers reenter the workforce by finding meaningful, dignified, sustained employment.”
First
88 weeks of unemployment insurance? Holy shit, I had no idea. At what point in time do you tell yourself that you need to get out of the funk and up your game!
In a related note, I’m in week three of this new role in technical program management. I could have stayed with the previous role but I realized it was becoming a bit stagnant. They threw everything including the kitchen sink at me these last two weeks and my head is spinning but I learned a lot so far. New adventures (and more money :) ) keep the blood pumping I suppose.
Why would you. When bear Stearns collapsed and my friend list his job, he got 99 weeks under Obama. He said it was the greatest two years of his life. He pursued every hobby he ever wanted to.
Market futures lowest I’ve seen in years.
So Sleepy Joe sent his wife? She was in the Ukrainian town of Uzhhorod, a border town next to Poland, and Trudeau was in the city of Kyiv yesterday as well as the U2 was also in Kyiv.
Pretty soon Biden is going to be the only politician or celebrity from the west who has not visited the war zone.
That sound you hear is The Ten hitting 318.
I was using stocks like Paypal as a omen to find the floor. Most of these stocks are hitting the pandemic lows. Now they are going past that.
re: “Market futures”
The process of bouncing along the bottom has not started….
At least oil stopped rising for now even with the announcement of more Russian oil bans from Europe. Germany for example is the second largest importer after China. Europe imports 42% of Russian Oil, they are going to be bidding on OPEC and even US crude since we export it now too.
That sound you hear is The Ten hitting 318.
At what point does the federal government revise their projections because they assumed 1.4% on the 10y this year and 2.1% by 2024?
What former FED president Bill Dudley said the other day is very true, what else can they do? The FED is going to shock Wall St in an attempt to curb inflation.
“Chairman Jerome Powell will need to shock investors and hurt the stock market in order to tamp down surging inflation, former Fed President Bill Dudley said in a Bloomberg Op-ed on Wednesday.
“One thing is certain: To be effective, [The Fed] will have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far,” Dudley said.
“This is happening because market participants expect higher short-term rates to undermine economic growth and force the Fed to reverse course in 2024 and 2025 — but these very expectations are preventing the tightening of financial conditions that would make such an outcome more likely,” Dudley said.
The Fed’s ultimate goal is to tighten financial conditions to help rein in demand from consumers, and in turn, help reduce the going rate of inflation, which hit 40-year highs last month.
If the Fed is unable to tighten financial conditions on its own, “the Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response,” Dudley said.
“This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields high and stock prices lower,” Dudley said.”
Shanghai news not good for Apple or Tesla or really anyone making stuff in China.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-workers-apple-tesla-045840775.html
Juice: Dudley was our FI market economist back in the day at GS. He looked like he was 12, others thought he resembled John boy Walton. Incredibly smart guy, and can articulate his subject in plain English. He was part of our morning meetings before the trading day started.
“I was using stocks like Paypal as a omen to find the floor. Most of these stocks are hitting the pandemic lows. Now they are going past that.”
Lib and I had this conversation last week….
Late 2019 was a market peak for stocks. If you recall multiples were toppy, rates were being reduced (with the final push of the fed actually supporting the repo markets), the economic outlook was better than it is now, anything could IPO including literally hundreds of make-believe companies (SPACs)…and despite the huge tailwinds the market was starting to soften.
Given that backdrop, how should we price stocks in this current environment which is much less favorable on nearly every count?
My ‘baseline’ starting point for looking at where any stock may bottom….
Draw a horizontal line at the pre-COVID market top in early 2020.
‘Real’ companies…FB through smaller caps with actual earnings and valued off P/E, not revenue…they need to justify why they do not bottom at that line.
Spec companies…all the ARKK garbage, HOOD, ROKU, anything without demonstrable earnings through 2023 and valued off Price/Sales…they need to justify why that line will not be the new high for their stock going forward.
That’s it. It is that easy if you zoom the lens out. Similar to ’00 or ’07 the valuations and therefore share prices in ’20 were established when every valuation parameter was at a peak and credit was cheap and widely available. That situation rarely happens and now those parameters are unfavorable. You don’t need a Wharton MBA to draw a conclusion from this fact set. Just common sense.
One last point that follows from this topic…avoid anyone telling you stocks are ‘cheap’ based on how far they have fallen from all time highs. Absolutely nothing at all says stocks have to retrace those losses. The most basic of investing rookie mistakes is viewing share prices in this manner….one thing, and one thing only, matters for any asset you purchase, especially stocks….what is the present value of future expected cash flows. Those types of companies, noted above, that have dubious earnings potential will continue to crater. It is no coincidence PTON is looking for vulture private financing below their IPO price and Uber is freezing hiring.
Valuation – the present value of future cash flows – drives LT share prices. Not distance from ATH.
At this point, just save your money till the FED goes soft. If you don’t want to time it, then buy after the reversal. Just know all lemmings. Whenever the reversal comes, it will be quick. Market is 90% psychology and 10% fundamentals. Selling and gloom owns the lemming herd right now, and eventually it will reverse creating 20 year buy opportunities at an extreme oversold low. As big as they drove the market up, with the same irrationality they will drive it down. Fear and greed is a hell of a drug on the way up and way down….market psychology is all that matters. They will completely oversell this to unbelievable levels where no one will want to touch stocks, just like they drove it up to such levels that made everyone want to own stocks.
Yup. That’s pretty much it. The momentum trade is off in this environment.
Did we build back gooder yet?
You see how luck matters in life. Repubs/trump crying about a rigged election. Meanwhile, if they won, it would be the end of trump and the republican party right now. Talk about getting lucky. Now you know how trump got rich….pure luck. Guy is one lucky dude.
Fast Eddie says:
May 9, 2022 at 9:59 am
Did we build back gooder yet?
Not sure if Mortgage Implod-o-meter is current but time to breakout popcorn. I know a dozen people who became realtors or mortgage brokers during pandemic, trying to ride wave. Get ready.
//www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/a-list-of-recent-mortgage-closures-mergers-and-layoffs/
Do you forget Dec 2018 when Dumpy’s hubris economy/stock market could not even handle getting rates back to when Lehman failed? The cult will always be the cult. They want to believe the answer to 78 year old slow Joe Biden is a 78 year old slow, demented Trump. Delusional.
Grab the popcorn for the idiots that are pushing remote work heading into a recession. Going to be absolutely brutal. First, the remote workers are amplifying the pain in the economy by hiding in their house “saving money.” Now, I hoped they saved their money because they are going to be the first laid off. No way are companies going to lay of the guy that has been coming to the office over the remote worker demanding all this bs. Major cleansing coming through.
I just pray that the corporations don’t start to offshore remote jobs to survive…then we are really f/ed. Then you will see the equivalent of the offshoring of jobs experienced by blue collar workers happen to white collar workers.
You know, this all could have been prevented if people had common sense. Think of your office job as a benefit, not a negative. It drastically reduced the odds of your job being replaced or moved, and help protect your higher wages based on location. YOU HAVE TO BE AN ABSOLUTE IDIOT TO WILLINGLY GIVE THAT UP. Wtf is wrong with people….why don’t they think.
Brilliant.
“Carter applied online for unemployment at least 34 times in 10 states between June 2020 and November 2020 using various names, officials said. After receiving payments, Carter transferred money into two bank accounts in his name, according to federal prosecutors.
Charging documents state Carter applied for benefits in New Jersey, Texas, Colorado and California, among other places.
Once investigators tracked the IP address for the applications, they found Carter’s Instagram page, authorities said. The page contained photos of stacks of cash as well as pictures and messages about unemployment, according to court documents.”
“I just pray that the corporations don’t start to offshore remote jobs”
Man, you are a moron. Going into office will not save your job, dummy. If the strategy is to offshore then you are simply a number on a sheet, waiting for inevitable. Companies are ‘not starting’ this now but doing it progressively for 20 years. I don’t worry about layoffs. Govt will go big to the rescue. 88 more weeks coming. Good thing both parties always in re-election mode.
No, I’m not an idiot.
You are creating a platform, when there was none, for them to easily do it. Wake the F up!
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 10:54 am
“I just pray that the corporations don’t start to offshore remote jobs”
Man, you are a moron. Going into office will not save your job, dummy. If the strategy is to offshore then you are simply a number on a sheet, waiting for inevitable. Companies are ‘not starting’ this now but doing it progressively for 20 years. I don’t worry about layoffs. Govt will go big to the rescue. 88 more weeks coming. Good thing both parties always in re-election mode.
Best part, the idiots that tell their bosses that they are more productive remotely….like wtf. Why in the world would you say this? All because people live in the now and are selfish. So they chase what’s good for them now at the expense of the future. These same turds are going to be the one’s crying about their job being offshored or being forced to work the same wages are some foreign worker.
I won’t feed the beast but the Citrix / DAAS tools has existed for years. You are an idiot. If corp America saw a path to getting rid of job they jumped on it. Tech area is way ahead of curve. The platform was not created by the pandemic. There have been improvements to tools but that is all. Geez
Pumps stop being a pre-digital age dinosaur.
https://news.yahoo.com/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-recently-160553104.html
Juice,
He has a vested interest…his company lives off remote workers.
Just promise me you won’t be one of the turds embracing remote work and then crying about the future consequences. I know you will, that’s the sad part.
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 11:03 am
I won’t feed the beast but the Citrix / DAAS tools has existed for years. You are an idiot. If corp America saw a path to getting rid of job they jumped on it. Tech area is way ahead of curve. The platform was not created by the pandemic. There have been improvements to tools but that is all. Geez
If I WFH, I log-on at 7am or 7:30AM five days a week, usually on until 6:30. If I got into office, I will not take a call before 8:45 then have to catch a train at 5 to be home by 6. Only a true dipshit, without a clue, does not see productivity gains here. Also, US workers have more power because many greedy little arrogant scum exec boards have been slow to draw on wage frenzy in India, Poland and elsewhere. They have been used to controlling ITO vendor costs and now deer in headlights, unable to keep knowledge. The US is last place with any experience on how our apps work or business use for them. We have zero IT leaders in India or Poland bc they won’t take our pay. I am sure a dope would not get that dynamic.
Bull signals when sentiment is bearish and bear signals when sentiment is bullish . . .
I try to think of what is bearish when people are bullish and vice versa.
Lots of gloom in the business news zeitgeist. Anyone see any bull signals out there for stocks? I understand that the bear signals might outweigh them.
Here are a few (AND, I AM, OF COURSE, not saying “be bullish” or that these will overpower the moving pieces that are bearish):
(1) household balance sheets have like an excess $2T right now more than you would expect, according to Kashkari this morning on CNBC, and consumers haven’t tapped credit as much as would be expected since the pandemic
(2) do consumers and even businesses front-load purchases of durables to get ahead of inflation-related price increases and/or to lock in the lower interest rates of today than what is expected, so public companies have higher than expected earnings for a while
(3) if we are talking nominal rather than real, then inflation pumps up EPS for companies that maintain margins
(4) are companies earning profits the asset that you want to own during inflation (cash is losing value compared to purchasing ability, does anyone doubt that the derivative of gold is inflation or is it gold market dynamics [commodity, public belief in it, etc]).
(5) if this isn’t THE BIG ONE (dollar loses global hegemony, new paradigm where due to tech, outsourcing, and immigration, US unemployment will be signficiantly structurally higher going forward, a soft default by the US Government, etc etc), then Joe Sixpack might be besst served to just buy-and-hold like he should have in December 2018, along with the periodic pullbacks in 2014-2016, etc. If this is THE BIG ONE and we are going to go 86% peak-to-trough, like the Great Depression, or worse, then hold onto your hats, lol.
Bystander: Multiple articles in Marketwatch this morning on WFH including a piece by the CEO of Air B n b where he states offices are a relic from before the digital age, a thing of the past. Also, NYC office occupancy for March, still low, and companies giving up space. My Brother tells me mid town has picked up but still quiet. NYC commercial real estate will be slammed more during the recession, as well as getting rid of people, companies can now get rid of much more office space as well. The work is getting done, and companies know that. It’s a new world.
34 days comment free.
34 days comment free.
If I WFH, I log-on at 7am or 7:30AM five days a week, usually on until 6:30.
I’m an early person. This is about my schedule, too, except 5:00 PM has got to be the cutoff. There is a meeting every other week, mid week, that carries to 6:30 PM because of the west coast people but that’s it. But I agree here… the commute was eating 2 hours per day so it’s really a win-win for both sides being able to WFH.
Crushed: CNN had a report on Friday, consumer credit card debt soared by 52 billion in March, a 14 percent increase from last year. Perhaps, Kashcari needs to update his analysis.
3b,
Not surprised. I take phone screens all the time and first to questions are usually about pay and WFH. It is funny when they take hard stance on being back in office. I just say no. They will absolutely struggle to hire and completely wrong path if only choosing people who will go 4 days a week. They are desperate, not always the best fit for role.
Hey, I hope it works out for you and others. Hope I’m wrong and that I’m the idiot…being serious. I hope they don’t end up using the platform to offshore and keep the jobs here. I want my daughter to have the same opportunities as I had, don’t want her stuck in an expensive country with limited job opportunities.
Still think you are making a big mistake, GOD i hope I am wrong.
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 11:13 am
If I WFH, I log-on at 7am or 7:30AM five days a week, usually on until 6:30. If I got into office, I will not take a call before 8:45 then have to catch a train at 5 to be home by 6. Only a true dipshit, without a clue, does not see productivity gains here. Also, US workers have more power because many greedy little arrogant scum exec boards have been slow to draw on wage frenzy in India, Poland and elsewhere. They have been used to controlling ITO vendor costs and now deer in headlights, unable to keep knowledge. The US is last place with any experience on how our apps work or business use for them. We have zero IT leaders in India or Poland bc they won’t take our pay. I am sure a dope would not get that dynamic.
Not going to lie, you make me sick. You cry all day and night about your compensation and jobs being offshored, but then you go and embrace the very things that make it all possible. You make absolutely zero sense.
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 11:23 am
3b,
Not surprised. I take phone screens all the time and first to questions are usually about pay and WFH. It is funny when they take hard stance on being back in office. I just say no. They will absolutely struggle to hire and completely wrong path if only choosing people who will go 4 days a week. They are desperate, not always the best fit for role.
“Crushed: CNN had a report on Friday, consumer credit card debt soared by 52 billion in March, a 14 percent increase from last year.”
Well, you were warned.
Freedom isn’t free.
US Consumer Debt at Q4, for the last few years:
Q4 2015: $12.11T
Q4 2016: $12.58T
Q4 2017: $13.14T
Q4 2018: $13.54T
Q4 2019: $14.15T
Q4 2020: $14.56T
Q4 2021: $15.59T
The trendline is something liek $0.5T per year. So, yes, you can see the sudden acceleration there at the end (with 2021 adding $1T; delata being $0.5T higher than trend), but there’s been something like $9T in additional value added to the value of the US housing stock since the pandemic. Total US stock market is valued at about $53T at year-end 2021 – about $25T of that was additional value from price run-up since Dec. 31, 2019. So, that’s like $34T of total value in the US housing and stock markets (of course, a lot of that is not owned by domestic households), more-or-less, since the pandemic but US household debt only had a rate of increase out of the trendline by an extra $0.5T.
Note: $6T or so of the $34T has been wiped out, as of today, over the last 4 months
Just filled up the tank. $4.19. Was in the &3.90s last week
Vornado makes me sick..would hate to have income tied to those old dinosaurs.
To add to my bullish possible points above, there is the possibility of near-term triggers:
(1) Russia-Ukraine ends quicker than expected (less strain on supply chains, less risk of dark horse coming out of there)
(2) China drops zero-covid.
(3) supply chain issues resolve
(4) Biden says f it and forgives a big chunk of student debt, come what may
Or, sentiment about any of these changes.
Yup, the bear list is longer and probably stronger – no more TINA, Volcker is back in town, recession is more severe than expected, other current bear trendlines keep going, etc etc
FYI, neg test this weekend but bad cough last few days. Kid got 8 people exposed in less than 2 weeks into return to office. WFH forever.
Bystander: It’s a struggle between the old and the new, the younger CEO s understand the digital age has fundamentally altered the nature of work. They understand. Like one said recently, if I need to see the person in the office, to somehow ensure that the work gets done, then they are not the right fit for the office.
The older CEOs like Dimon can’t acknowledge this, as in the office is what he grew up with, although even he is softening his stance.
I find it ironic that some companies in a desperate attempt to lure people back to the office, are trying to make the office fun. Gyms, massages , chill out areas, roof top terraces, snacks and trendy cafeterias, and some are even adding bars with everyday happy hours. Yet, you have those who say some WFH people are goofing off and playing, so it’s ok to goof and play and do office happy hours as long as people are back in the office? Why’s about the work?? Incredibly silly in my view.
Crushed: And tons of vacant office space as more and more companies turn to remote/ hybrid.
Well, if WFH is the new normal and tubby Mary can get 650K for her dump with the body odor aroma, I’m going to put a seven digit price tag on my house just to see who’s serious. It’s warranted, you know. Suzanne researched it.
Really 3b? We got bagels on Mondays but only in May. Cheap f*cks.
Fast: Don t forget the required letter, and assurances to feed the squirrels.
Bystander: Apparently so, that is what I have been reading.
Pumps we are still well below pre-pandemic levels on mass transit.
Last week..
NYC Subway and Bus is about 60%
Long Island Rail Road is 61%
Metro-North Railroad is 58%
PATH TRAINS are still way off about 47% for March 2022 vs in March 2019
NJ Transit is assumed to be about the same
“New adventures (and more money}”
” I’m going to put a seven digit price tag on my house just to see who’s serious.”
Ed,
Glad Biden’s strong economy is working out for you. I kid, I kid…
Costco here bumped up prices gain 20 cents to $4.25
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/new-jersey
One thing to consider, Ron Paul always alluded to secret deals and financial maneuvering that Fed keeps hidden. The “transparent” bullets are shot but I don’t be surprised if a magical floor is put under this decline. You will be wondering who the big buyers are and why? We have entered next Fed phase…don’t f-in ask bc we won’t answer.
Inverse funds have worked fairly well this year. However, just shorting high/infinity PE crap has been a home run.
crushed, good analyses.
My only contribution is the path varies based on the starting point…meaning….depends where you are in life and what your portfolio currently looks like.
If I’m thirty and playing with retirement money, yeah, I’m DCA’ing in all the way down from here and using some simple tools that give me more leverage and commensurately less risk than doing it with just shares. Good companies, no garbage, indices if you want.
If I’m 50+, with a kid still in college, some mortgage, and hitting a wall on the job different approach obviously…first, I shouldn’t have been in any garbage to begin or at least out when the sirens were flashing in 1Q21. I may want to actually go to cash for some portion and wait this out.
Likewise, the level to which one is currently invested is relevant to both bookend scenarios above….if I’m strongly cash (which I personally have been for a while) I’m in a much different starting place than a peer who is near fully invested and may only be looking to re-allocate holdings….and have tax issues with that even….
Lots of considerations, colored by market view of course, but often in situations like these just getting the big picture macro correct is 90+% of the battle…
The volatility of individual names is what can come and bite someone on the ass…eg, agree with you that peace in Europe will be a rally, likely a face ripping one, and in both directions….indices up strongly, but all these outperforming energy and commodity companies? Look out below.
3B – WSJ today…….
some quotes..
“Companies throughout the U.S. are flooding the market with office space they want to sublease”
” In Manhattan alone, more than 20 million square feet of office space was available for sublease in the first quarter, according to Savills.”
“That helped push overall office availability to the highest level in decades. Many of the listings are in the types of new, expensive buildings that have so far made it through the pandemic relatively unscathed, Mr. Wenk said.”
“At 30 Hudson Yards on Manhattan’s West Side, for example, Warner Bros. Discovery recently started marketing around 450,000 square feet for sublease, according to a person familiar with the matter—about a third of its footprint in the building.”
“Many employees work remotely or only come in on some days, meaning the office is only about 20% occupied, Ms. Fitzgerald said. By cutting space, the company is looking to lower its real-estate bill.”
“Every dollar is important to a company,” Ms. Fitzgerald said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/office-building-owners-drown-in-tide-of-sublease-space-11652097600?mod=hp_major_pos3
By,
I remember the Audit the Fed bill that was basically being floated by Ron Paul, Alan Grayson, Dennis Kucinich, and Bernie Sanders. Woulda opened a lot of eyes to the nonsense going on.
It got completely gutted by Mel Watt…then Obama kindly rewarded him with the position head of FHFA, where he later engaged in sexual harassment of his employees.
Eddie, if you’re a progressive, build back better is going just fine. $100 tank of gas, hollow out the middle class, illegals flooding the country, all part of the plan.
Move psaki to msnbc, new press Secretary shacked up with a cnn editor, create a ministry of truth and label all criticism misinformation and extremism. Problem solved.
The strongest tailwind is turning into the strongest headwind.
Low interest rates did not just help businesses. It helped the consumer tremendously as well. There will be no more refinancing to get out of credit card debt. There will be no more refinancing the home to tap into equity as the equity is going to shrink. Even buyers are going to hesitate to make a purchase due to fears of a bubble and how much interest will need to be paid at the start of the loan. It was one thing when homes cost 400-500K and 2K of your 3K payment went to interest with the rest to escrow and a pittance to paying down principle. Now it’s going to be 4K to the bank with the same 1K to be split between the escrow and the principle. And it’s only deductible if you itemize (which many no longer are since Trump made the SD much more attractive.
Low interest rates are a huge boon to the economy. Going forward, you need to measure everything in this new environment. Higher interest rates alone will curtail discretionary spend. Combine this with inflation where you are paying more and getting less and it’s a true recipe for disaster.
Juice: I missed that article, but no surprise, as I along with others here have been seeing and saying this for quite some time. Ms Fitzgerald nails it every dollar matters to a company; no need to spend it on unnecessary office space.
Salaries in other countries for tech are going waaay up – you hire people and they don’t even show up on the first day because they found a job with double pay.
I have people leaving making more than their managers at the current place.
Corporations are going to wake up if they want quality of any sort and don’t even realize the big risks they have by not keeping workers well paid and happy.
I am in the office 3x a week and at home 2x a week. I think 2 in office / 3 at home is better, which is what I had previously. Some days I go just to sit on zoom, those days I am definitely gone by 5 pm. Pre pandemic I was in the office till 6:30 every night – those days are gone. WFH is here to stay. People will leave their job if it is not flexible and find one that is.
Goat,
Who you got in 2024? The guy who fox hosts blamed for causing insurrection and pleaded to stop it. The same guy who had Hannity on speed dial to feed mis-information. Sure, ministry of truth waiting in the wings.
Mike,
Exactly what I am seeing. Glad to have another view on this board. Sometimes people here think it is easy out there and jobs are plentiful. In cheap countries, yes bc still half to 3 times less than US.
Driving up from Florida over the weekend, I pumped 93 octane at as much as $4.99. Almost had my first $100 fill up.
For an hour I listened to this video of Milton Friedman from 1977 when inflation was also really bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_nGEj8wIP0
Worth reviewing to remind oneself of how inflation isn’t some anomaly that government is super-skilled at getting rid of.
That’s a great sign, that foreigners want more, and won’t work for less. But let’s see what happens when the bubble in the labor market and economy is popped. Prob will get ugly as people will just take what they can get. Americans will lose though (except for the owners and the rich) who will get to take advantage of the largest pool of white collar workers they have ever witnessed if remote takes hold.
I’m still in the camp that WFH is about to end. If you are competitive company in a major recession, why would you want a remote corporate culture? If any of your competitors decide to go office and create a powerful company culture to drive innovation, those remote businesses can’t compete. Remote workers could care less about the company and its culture, and only care about their flexibility. That will get killed in a competitive business environment.
Mike S says:
May 9, 2022 at 12:45 pm
Salaries in other countries for tech are going waaay up – you hire people and they don’t even show up on the first day because they found a job with double pay.
A lot of these people either never experienced a labor market where they are scared to lose their job (0r having to beg for one) or have forgot what it was like. Don’t forget, just like it was easy money with the stock market or any business, it was also easy money for workers. Impossible to get fired. That era is coming to an end quickly.
So I wouldn’t be so quick to say WFH is here to stay. It’s the equivalent of saying buy the dip is here to stay.
“WFH is here to stay. People will leave their job if it is not flexible and find one that is.”
Besides, when has 3b or bystander been correct? You want to jump on their train? These are the same guys that said north jersey real estate was dead and would be worth nothing due to property taxes. They are also constantly calling for the end of NYC economy.
Same names as before, trump, pence, desantis, Pompeii and others all better than anyone who can escape the leftist primary. Last time around that process produced a corrupt mindless cadaver whose only purpose is to be a vehicle for lobbyists and radicals.
I think in some industries, the US worker will even have power during a recession. In some areas, some companies, teams have been operating with recession level staff because the open head count is impossible to fill. During a recession they will just kill the open hires, but everyone still there will be valuable to keep the lights on and if you get rid of too many you jepordize your business.
What’s the point of telling people to go to the office if there is no one there.
I went to the office for the first time in two years last week. I saw 4 people on my floor. One, was the person I was going in to have lunch with.
Dumped most of the papers from my drawers and cabinets into the Secure Shredding bins. I haven’t needed them in 2 years so no point holding on to anything. Sorted out my personal effects to bring them back home in the next few trips.
Fab: Same here. Simply no point to be in the office. It’s a new world.
Mike S. You are absolutely right of course. Freeze the new hires, cut back raises and bonus, and dump unnecessary office space, and all the ancillary costs that go with them. This is a tool companies did not have in past recessions. They could elect not to take new or expand office space, they could negotiate lower lease costs, but now, they can actually eliminate the space and the costs. And for those companies that do maintain some or even all of their office space, when it comes time for lease renewals it will be the tenants with the upper hand, not the commercial landlords. This is a permanent structural change.
Totally agree – you can see how the ‘WFH’ also goes along with the real estate trends… Suburbs like Montclair are very hot and will continue to be hot as people commute less but still want amenities, and also don’t want a horrible commute for when they do need to go in.
Inflation doesn’t affect everyone equally.
It’s hard for me to feel sorry for someone with 10 million dollars in the bank and a paid of house crying about the cost of filling their Escalade.
I did my best to prepare for times like this, just like many others. My mistake, marrying someone who pulled the pin on a grenade and threw it in my foxhole. You cannot protect against that.
And had this not happened, and my safety net was in place, I would just be grateful I was able to do it, and quietly fill up my tank knowing that I could easily be the the guy at the next pump scraping quarters to buy a gallon. I’m not that guy, but only one illness, job loss, or lawsuit away from being him.
America has no safety nets except for public workers. They get their money just like my ex gets her child support- by extortion.
Mind you, I don’t mind supporting my child for you freaks out there who think I am complaining about that. My legal fees would have paid that in a lump sum x3.
But now I have those fees plus child support. And no safety net.
So each day is a new day. Until it’s not for me. Just like plenty of other hardworking Americans. I’m grateful I can keep going. But many will not last long.
I wish them luck.
I don’t understand how your company innovates with no one there. What’s been happening, your companies performance has been guided by low rates easy money. Don’t have to be competitive when covid money and low rates are driving the ship. Don’t have to be competitive when your competitors are all working at home collecting paychecks too. Past two years was all about the status quo. You didn’t have to innovate to grow in an era of high inflation and cheap money.
Mike, you are not thinking clearly. Soon a lot of companies will be getting rid of all this extra weight that was affordable during an era of pumping by the FED. Wait till they start laying people off and abandoning pointless projects that are going nowhere. All of a sudden going to have all this excess high end labor with no job looking for one. Just think about it, what you describe below will not last.
Mike S says:
May 9, 2022 at 2:04 pm
I think in some industries, the US worker will even have power during a recession. In some areas, some companies, teams have been operating with recession level staff because the open head count is impossible to fill. During a recession they will just kill the open hires, but everyone still there will be valuable to keep the lights on and if you get rid of too many you jepordize your business.
Murphy flew to Miami to complain about climate change with other elitists from the aspen institute. You can’t make this stuff up.
Recent studies have shown that independent thinking away from group think is oftentimes better than meeting as a group first where the tendency is for one or two too dominate the discussion, and most just go along with the dominant view. I never had that issue, if something is stupid or makes no sense I challenge it. But,many don’t and I can attest to that as I am sure others here in the corporate world can too.
The studies go on to say, many of the best ideas come from independent thinking, whereby the group comes up with their ideas on their own and then meet via Zoom or in person to discuss as a group to come up with the best ideas, not just the the idea/s from one or two people. And I can say from experience many of those people don’t necessarily have the best ideas, they just like to hear themselves talk.
I was right from 2015-Q1 2020, assh%t. The CT market was a pile of sh&t and my house lost value. My bro and d*ckhead former neighbor both lost 100k with improvements considered . They sold for significantly less than they paid in 2011 and 2014 respectively.
You could not sell a Greenwich country house in 2019. Completely decimated market and even Wells Fargo called Fairfield County “distressed” at time. We would still be there but a certain Orange clown, Oz Powell and Clowngress decided to give everyone a free pony with a gold-plated saddle. Good luck with new future, nostradumbass
Great, now independent thinking is better than collaboration. Whatever you say, I said my peace.
If you are old and don’t care about your job anymore, go remote and hang on for as long as you can. If you are younger, don’t be a f/ing fool and grab the low hanging fruit because it makes your life so much easier to just work at home…there will be a price to pay, there always is. Good luck on which path you choose, just know we are in a bear market with tightening liquidity. Act accordingly. Some companies aren’t going to make it out alive.
Bystander: It’s going to get really ugly if mortgage rates get a 7 handle, and we could be there by year end if not before.
Bystander: how did you make out re: Omicron?
left: do you think someone is getting liquidated out? The selling while broad, look disproportionate in certain names?
Chi,
Negative this weekend but still going to do one later today which is Day 6 since exposed.
And I always said it would start going off in 2020 due to a demographic wave overcoming supply…you think what you want, but I never called for housing to blow up in 2o15-2018. I was the one saying Wayne and Fairfield were the best values in north jersey when you could buy homes there for 400k still. Pretty good call, but you will never acknowledge it.
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 2:41 pm
I was right from 2015-Q1 2020, assh%t. The CT market was a pile of sh&t and my house lost value. My bro and d*ckhead former neighbor both lost 100k with improvements considered . They sold for significantly less than they paid in 2011 and 2014 respectively.
You could not sell a Greenwich country house in 2019. Completely decimated market and even Wells Fargo called Fairfield County “distressed” at time. We would still be there but a certain Orange clown, Oz Powell and Clowngress decided to give everyone a free pony with a gold-plated saddle. Good luck with new future, nostradumbass
Just think about it…why was there 40 people bidding on one house? Because of mortgage rates? Then why didn’t it happen when mortgage rates were just as low in 2015? Please explain.
I got a 30 year for 3.5 in 2015. I got 30 year at 2.5 in 2020, dummy. That is a huge diff. You also had billions pumped into Blackrocks, Zilllow to buy up residential blocks along with Fed buying up all MBS thus competing against young, gullible folks on main street (a shortage! Hurry now). It was complete socialist free money plan. Millions of retirees rushing to buy retirement homes with artificial stock inflation, changing their 10 year timeline plan to 1 year. Good luck.
3b,
Not just recent studies on group dynamics, they have been around for at least 3 decades showing that group dynamics can create negatives impacts on decision making. To name a few, there is a bias in favor of people who like to talk quickly rather than those who like to think more deeply, a bias in favor of loudmouths vs others, a bias in favor of people with higher power/status steering discussion. Risk taking bias in groups. Most of it is lemming-like behavior. There are ways to try to reduce the bias but it rarely happens in practices.
Ultimately all thought is done by individuals. It takes a good bit of effort to extract the benefits of multiple minds on the same subject. This is why my company required all meaningful decisions to be elaborated and debated in writing. And for every decision to have one individual accountable for it, documented and retained in our databases. Otherwise when things go wrong, “group” decisions lead to a bunch of fingerpointing and mis-remembering of who said what.
Thus when Covid hit, it was quite easy for people to continue their work remote, as they were already doing nearly all work individually and in written form.
No One: I was not aware of those prior studies. Thank you. It makes perfect sense. Perhaps the ones I referenced are newer in response to Covid and WFH, but the analysis and conclusions are the same.
Also studies released from outside consultants who my firm has engaged over the last 2 years disclosed that the biggest demographics who want remote/ hybrid are Millenials and Gen Z; not the older employees although the support is there too.
30 year has been moving up since 2020….why did the market only get stronger? Now, of course with doom and gloom in the headlines and huge rate increases, it will cause people to pause. Eventually, these people still need a house, they weren’t looking for houses because the rate dropped, they were looking for a house because they needed to live in one with their family.
But please do keep thinking it’s all the FED and low rates….I agree to disagree for the millionth time.
Bystander says:
May 9, 2022 at 3:08 pm
I got a 30 year for 3.5 in 2015. I got 30 year at 2.5 in 2020, dummy.
Avg individual buying houses doesn’t even know what the rates are….they were never buying because the rates are low. You just don’t get it.
Okay, so now it’s better to focus your business on individual thinking. Collaboration is bad because of loud mouths. Got it.
Better off just writing it all down… Pretty time consuming if you ask me.
SP500 breaches 4,000.
Pumpkin, on house prices, I disagree it’s as simple as “people needed to buy a house for their family.”
First, picture a young, married couple with one baby. They rent a one-bedroom apartment – rent is $2,000/month. They intend to buy a three-bedroom house – mortgage/tax is $3,500/month. If rent was lower, they would stay renting longer (they would stay until second kid is born or until the first kid is too old). If mortgage was lower, they’d just buy the house immediately. The point is that there is a 5-year period during which they might buy and prices, or the price spread between these two options, might dictate WHEN they buy.
Demographics are part of it, but to my eyes, a lot of other big factors hit at the same time:
Lower Supply:
(1) Many potential and intended sellers in 2020 and beyond, did not want buyers inside their homes due to contagious illness concerns;
(2) Eviction and foreclosure moratoriums kept many housing units artificially occupied; and
(3) builders of new homes faced higher material and labor costs, and then more importantly, material unavailability.
Higher Demand:
(1) Savings from commuting, from not going out, and student loan moratorium left more disposable income in people’s hands
(2) Desirability of housing increased as a place to spend money due to you couldn’t go out for a while to spend on other things (the big trend was spending on goods rather services)
(3) lower interest rates
These started the price increase trend, but the bigger issue was this trend created a psychological mania. The mania is responsible for much of the higher housing prices. I don’t know if it is FOMO or fear of getting priced out forever or what. But, I do not think you can project this mania from demographics alone if the pandemic-related factors didn’t kick it off.
SP500 at 17.4% off ATH.
So the overall economy can be guided by cheap money… but a subset of the economy, the housing market, cannot be guided by cheap money. Noted.
Face,
I honestly don’t know many buyers of housing that were playing speculative games. Most buyers were really buying houses to live in them in most markets. Even wall st was buying for passive income, not to buy and sell. They wanted to be landlords because it was difficult to find yield with minimum risk.
Kudos, crushed. That puts it exactly in context.
chi, was wondering the same thing on liquidation. i don’t see any weird volume though….buyers just evaporated.
time will tell….when the tide goes out we’ll see who was swimming naked.
it did feel for a while there that 4000 was getting defended at all costs….someone may have won that tug of war and then everyone else just surrendered and piled on….
i know someone on a large spx futures desk…there have been four or five whales slinging real volume over the last two-three months….8/9 figure p/l during the week on occasion for one…i’ll talk with him, let futes close settle first….
I told you all if 13K broke on the nasdaq, it would be a straight ride down to 11K. Are we there yet?
Crushed,
Don’t over complicate it. Keep it simple.
You had this immense wave of buyers that were supposed to be buying from 2010 on, but didn’t. Millennials are renters for life they said. The suburbs are dead they said. They were content with renting and living that city life. Then they all started growing up at the same exact time. Now you had this massive wave of buyers all at once…the market never had a chance. It was hit by a tidal wave of demand. That’s the simple truth. These buyers were coming no matter what the conditions were. They already waited 10 years more than previous generations to buy, how much longer you think they could wait? Late 40s and 50s?
That’s the problem with experts…they are too smart for their own good. They refuse to see a simple answer in front of their eyes, instead they must over complicate it.
What’s that I’m hearing? 40% of current crypto investors now under water?
Hodl!!!
Crushed,
Regardless what a buffoon believes, millenials were coming in 2020. Just slowly and with price consideration. My neighbors who bought in Jan 2020 are 40-ish with three kids now. They waited until house was on market for 7 mos and my douchey ex was getting hurt as carrying two mortgages (1.3m home). They negotiated so hard that the dummy came with his Dad on weekend to remove stupid swingset that his kids were too old to use, just as spite. Now, these millenials got suckered over last two years.
Bloomberg article discussing some home buyers taking in roommates to deal with increasing mortgage rates and other costs. Sounds like a wonderful way to live.
I wonder if Russia’s sovereign wealth fund is pulling out.
Cathie and Baillie G. are getting gang banged.
Maybe we’ll find out that Archegos was just a warmup for a much bigger systemic leveraged investment in stocks thats getting unwound.
Fun fact: there’s a Chinese truck hailing company named “Manbang”
There’s also a Chinese guy I met recently named Major Wang.
And an Indian guy who emails me named Dikshit Sharma.
And an American guy who emails me named Dick Pfister. Not Richard.
Fed official Kashkari says he doesn’t buy the ‘Great Resignation’ — and says employers ‘always say’ there’s a labor shortage to avoid paying higher wages”
One of the biggest, lying f7cks in crooked Fed. Chief bailout architect who gives the employers all money in the world then wonders why they won’t pay higher wages. Entitlement, Neel. Look in the mirror for person to blame, maybe some rules to our tax dollar bailout sometime.
Bystander,
I know everyone is blaming low rates for housing market, I just don’t agree. You don’t get 40 offers and cash buyers winning bids because of low rates. It’s just comical how all the experts ignore demographics. Blows my mind. Instead they blame everything else but what counts. You want to blame low rates, fine, but please explain to me why so many cash offers trying to win the bid…money talks, bs walks.
Been through this how many times now? Crypto cycle. Much higher highs, and much higher lows. Min 80% drop on each cycle from the top down. Get ready to buy some cheap bitcoin, or my choice…ETH.
Grim says:
May 9, 2022 at 4:33 pm
What’s that I’m hearing? 40% of current crypto investors now under water?
Hodl!!!
Doesn’t everything point to 3800-3900 area?
20% off 4818 & we spent the entire 1Q21 hanging around in there…..
leftwing says:
May 9, 2022 at 4:14 pm
it did feel for a while there that 4000 was getting defended at all costs….someone may have won that tug of war and then everyone else just surrendered and piled on….
But the cycle of massive gains on each drop is getting less and less each cycle. Maybe this time it only goes up 10 times from its bottom.
I was crestfallen to learn that the hole-in-the-wall Indian place on route 30 along the backdoor into Atlantic City was named “Shifali”. For years I thought is was Shitali. I was considering trying to get a matchbook as a souvenir, but I was always in too much of a rush to stop.
I recall being on Santorini and there was a restaurant called “Barbeque the friends”. I have a photo standing in front of it with the gesture “what a great idea!”
No One says:
May 9, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Fun fact: there’s a Chinese truck hailing company named “Manbang”
There’s also a Chinese guy I met recently named Major Wang.
And an Indian guy who emails me named Dikshit Sharma.
And an American guy who emails me named Dick Pfister. Not Richard.
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”
– Shelby Cullom Davis
“A market downturn doesn’t bother us.
It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.”
– Warren Buffett
“There is a considerable tendency for common stock investors to do the greater part of their buying at high levels of the market.
They are equally inclined to do the greater part of their selling at low levels of the market.”
— Benjamin Graham
“Crypto revealing its true nature during this liquidity contraction…
Super high inflation, yet this “inflation hedge” asset-class has lost over 50% of its value within months.
#Bitcoin is a high-beta speculation on liquidity.
Nothing more, nothing less.”
Ahh…they agree. Just like fast said, these prices in north jersey are the new floor.
“There seems to be some ‘consensus’ that home prices will flatten rather than go negative. A former homebuilding CEO reminded people at our conference to be realistic; you don’t have many examples of a MASSIVE runup in price followed by a flattening.”
https://twitter.com/aliwolfecon/status/1523790191629987840?s=21&t=aZUi3-u9BZYlyV_gTnDoMA
7:03. hmmmm considering buying a few bereft corporate entities? You could borrow against your pension I suppose.
Speaking of pensions……..the single worst thing that can happen to anyone on a fixed income: INFLATION. Well, that and death.
“Hard to say there’s a bubble with these levels of crowding and rent appreciation in high demand cities. Interest rates are powerful, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think flattening is possible.”
hodl…..hahahahaha
Affirm -17% today then -11% in AH
Upstart -8% -45% in AH
The buy every dip retail Chads have to be hurting. PE deflation on these cash incinerators is humbling to watch… even from the sidelines.
VIX up 15% today to an almost two year high!
King of gloom is busting loads over here.
“The entire U.S. economy is about to shut down again, but this time it won’t be a dress rehearsal like with #Covid19. This will be the real thing. We won’t ask businesses to close they’ll have no choice but to close. Tens of millions will be fired from jobs that will never return!”
https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1523750077940264960?s=21&t=aZUi3-u9BZYlyV_gTnDoMA
Interesting. I understand if you don’t want to perform a procedure or give any “morning after” pills, but to tell someone who lives in your state you will stop them from leaving and force them to have a child they don’t want- damn, now that is about as Anti-American as you can get.
“New York announces bid to help pregnant women get terminations while Texas says it will STOP those who travel out of state if Roe v. Wade is overturned”
“Affirm -17% today then -11% in AH, Upstart -8% -45% in AH, The buy every dip retail Chads have to be hurting. PE deflation on these cash incinerators is humbling to watch…”
PTON, already down 90+% from its high (170s -> 14) is losing nearly 30% before market today…from 14 touched single digits.
I truly believe some people hawking the ‘down 90%, it’s cheap’ mantra at least implicitly feel their downside is the remaining 10%….ie, 10% losses.
Newsflash…you can buy something at 90% down and have it move down 40% that day, lol.
chi, yeah, seems the entire world is focused on that 3800 or so range….which of course means we either rip from here and never come back or blow right through it lol.
Boomer, direct vol related holdings went from zero to 4% of my portfolio during the last two trading days. Could double depending on how the next few days unfold.
PTON’s decline is attributed to their statement of a ‘precarious’ financial condition. Running out of capital is the original sin of the financial world, a level of mismanagement so deep it’s analogous to locking your baby in the car on a hot sunny August afternoon…
PTON is, of course, a Class of Late 2019 IPO when markets were wide open and nearly anyone could get money at any valuation for any hairbrained management team….
Which thought inevitably leads to CW portfolio companies…I get her daily trades, for the last week she dumped into weakness…any stock, including TSLA, she unloaded…isn’t one supposed to sell high and buy low, lol. Thought she was still taking in funds (net), that doesn’t seem to be the behavior of someone flush with inbound cash….
Phoenix, wild overreach by TX if they go there…no governmental entity, regardless of size, ‘owns’ me…Abbott puts that in place he’s toast for higher office…not from moderates in his party but from the right….
Just in case anyone needed further evidence that the modern Dem party is incapable of good governance, here’s another interesting but unsurprising statistic brought to you by Phil Murphy and the dangerously useless NJ Dems — at least this disastrous policy is going to be rolled back…
“State police data shows car thefts hit an all-time high in New Jersey last year, with car theft reports this year 37% higher than at the same time in 2021, according to acting Attorney General Matt Platkin. Last year there were 14,320 reports of stolen vehicles, a 22% increase over 2020…”
In reversal, New Jersey to again allow cops to chase car thieves — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2022/04/29/n-j-reverses-policy-that-barred-cops-from-pursuing-stolen-vehicles/#:~:text=State%20police%20data%20shows%20car,acting%20Attorney%20General%20Matt%20Platkin.
Hoping the stock market doesn’t destroy people in retirement or that are about to retire. Bad timing for them right now. Hope the pension plans survive this.
Natalia Solar moved to a 49-story luxury tower in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood two years ago. She and a roommate paid $3,300 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in a building with an Equinox fitness club, rooftop pool, and 24-hour concierge service.
She renewed the following year for $3,500. Then when her lease expired earlier this year, the landlord delivered some shocking news: He was doubling the rent to $7,000 a month.
Ms. Solar looked at other apartments in the building, but every two-bedroom condo available for rent was going for $6,000 to $7,000. Even with the recent pay raise from a law firm where she works as a paralegal, she couldn’t afford those prices and is moving out of the building.
“We’re getting pushed out by these people who aren’t native Miamians,” she said. “It’s happening with everyone I know that’s renting.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/miami-locals-are-steamed-over-relocating-new-yorkers-driving-up-apartment-rents-11652175000?mod=hp_featst_pos4
SGC,
I think they started last night.
https://news.yahoo.com/multiple-dead-following-crash-glen-101503833.html
What a mess driving my son to school was this morning.
leftwing,
I hope you are correct.
I’ve never understood the position that people are anti-abortion AND anti-birth control. This one takes it to the next level.
Touching on that wsj article I posted above. You see what happens? Anywhere you have people with money, they drive up the cost of everything. So now Miami rents are no different than the places they came from.
It would be nice to contain these high earners to certain locations. It would help big time with addressing inequality. All that happened over the past two years with these high earners moving around is amplified inequality in our society. Now there is nowhere to go that is a decent place for a decent price. They even drove up the price of idaho for god sake.
“Many of these new Miami residents have high-paying jobs and are used to significantly higher rents in expensive West Coast and Northeast cities, making even the steepest Miami rents seem reasonable.”
“His first apartment, two bedrooms on the 40th floor with water views in the Brickell neighborhood, went for $2,800 when he first arrived, and is now renewing at $6,500.”
It was like a race the past 2 years to take advantage of any cheap location by these high earners. Running to buy in these ultra cheap places and willingly paying double the price. Nice f/ing job. You got yours, but the poor earners that were living here are now pushed out. Good job! And then you have the nerve to brag about it…
“I’ve never understood the position that people are anti-abortion AND anti-birth control.”
I think that is your devoted minority of Catholics…both is their dogma…
If you don’t subscribe to that narrow religious view I suspect the vast majority of citizens looking to limit abortion have no problem and in fact support birth control, including mainstream Catholics.
I mean even my 80 year old mother who is devout with deep roots in the church and all its activities is anti-abortion (notably not absolute though) and pro-birth control.
She was the only one of my very wide friend, peer, and family circle who actually raised these current events in a discussion…
Comment from that WSJ article…
“Same thing happening in Portland, Maine, except we are getting the hipster refugees from Williamsburg, Brooklyn. (Heck, they already have winter beards and flannel shirts, so it’s easy to blend in!) It’s not by chance that Portland has seen a burst of independent bookstores and expensive coffee shops crop up – these are the businesses that signal the colonization of a place by the Man Bun–and- Mocha Latte crowd.
Thing is, unlike Miami, Portland isn’t a hub for finance or business -so many of these new arrivals are “working from home” in tech-jobs. Or opening – you guessed it – bookstores and coffee shops. And housing is not only astronomically expensive here, but unavailable. Every day, the local paper bemoans the lack of affordable (or any) housing. This comes as a shock to many new arrivals, who expect Portland to be cheaper than NYC. And they have brought their progressive politics with them, transforming the city into “The People’s Republic of Portland,” Come the Revolution, it will be lead by people wearing newly acquired, not broken in, L.L. Bean boots!”
Lib – They must have been flying down Bloomfield Ave to launch the car in the air and end up in that park.
Ditto.
Sincerely,
A Gun owner from NJ.
Fabius Maximus says:
May 8, 2022 at 9:54 am
Chloe D. Ricks @iAmChlo_O
Leaving stuff to states is a bad idea.
Sincerely,
A black woman from Mississippi
“First off, this article may represent peak Miami. We’ll see.
More importantly, once remote work became a thing, Silicon Valley and San Fran folks took one look at their sky high rents and homeless encampments and decided to move to Miami. Miami is a particular flavor of Silicon Valley – the crypto set – and Bitcoin’s plunge might affect that – or they might be here to stay (a good thing). But Miami has always been a low-pay zone as wealthy people who come to FL discover when their investment portfolios underperform & have to rely on employment. The high-paying jobs aren’t here. And now the lower paid folks who perform essential goods and services can’t afford to live in South Florida, which will decrease the quality of life these folks fled SV for (again).. If SoFla is to be NYC 2.0, we do so without good public transportation, public services, world-class cultural institutions and infrastructure. It’s going to be an expensive mess.
That which is unsustainable will not be sustained.”
Texas, Missouri, Michigan and Florida all talking Birth Control Bans,
Rubio talking about bills that would hit companies trying to provide travel support for their employees.
https://www.businessinsider.com/rubio-bill-would-prevent-corporate-travel-deductions-for-abortions-2022-5
Just waiting for “Child Support begins at Conception” and mandatory Vasectomys at 12. You can reverse it when you can afford kids. Only kidding, those will never happen.
More unintended consequences.
https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1524000862795882500
Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈@Amy_Siskind
Hard to overstate the impact this Roe decision will have in high schoolers applying this fall. One friend writes of Louisiana:
If a Tulane student from NY gets pregnant and goes home for an abortion she could be charged with…homicide.
Dropped several red state schools too.
Will not feed the dumb beast but:
“high earners moving around is amplified inequality in our society”
It is high asset prices with people feeling rich from low borrowing costs, insane stock and home price acceleration, engineered by cheap Fed money. They have been able to leverage sales into hard cahsh. It is crazy, artificial cycle and has been for over a dozen years.
“Same thing happening in Portland, Maine, except we are getting the hipster refugees from Williamsburg, Brooklyn”
It is beer, plain and simply. Allagash and Bissell Brothers etc. I know several alcoholics who travel all over NE to breweries. People build their lives around finding newest and best beer. It remind me of Phish and GD folks always finding a new bootleg that is the “best show ever.” Insatiable.
Where my post came from. R v W. But really, doesn’t America have much more pressing issues than to tackle this at this time? You know, like the lousy economy, government debt, war in Ukraine, gas prices, global warming (for those that believe), energy independence.
No, the high court of the land, the group of Grand Poo Bahs, decides that this is the time to waste gasoline and throw it on this fire. Group of A holes if you ask me.
This may be something that is an issue, but it’s not a priority right now.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10798009/Texas-looks-ban-residents-leaving-state-abortions-NY-looks-expand-access.html
Bystander,
Your post sounds crazy although it’s not. This is the result of years of social conditioning and marketing. Get enough data points on someone and you learn how to manipulate them.
I’d guess there are plenty of experiments running on social media that are designed to test the responses of humans to certain stimuli. Some probably just for entertainment.
Question is who is going to be eaten by the Bronteroc?
Just watch the first 20 seconds or so. How one person not thinking can make life difficult for many others. You rarely get to see this from 3 perspectives and with this clarity.
Say thank you to the engineers who worked hard on this project.
https://youtu.be/fxHxowBGpmA?t=5
As of this morning, ARKK has officially underperformed the S&P 500 since inception.
At least it didn’t set a new 52 week low this morning.
Bystander,
I explained what it is. The past 2 years with the ability to move to a location not tied to their job, there was a great race to take advantage of cheap locations. It’s already over. They drove it all up. This is where you are getting all the crazy appreciation numbers on real estate in places that were once really cheap. Talking more than double the price of 2 years ago. I’m not talking about a market like north jersey or cali, I’m talking about places that were cheap two years ago, and are now on par with north jersey pricing or even higher. These places have no jobs to support said prices. So locals can’t compete. All driven by remote tech and finance workers. Good for them, but terrible for the regular joes in these locations that are pushed out of their small towns or cities.
““high earners moving around is amplified inequality in our society”
It is high asset prices with people feeling rich from low borrowing costs, insane stock and home price acceleration, engineered by cheap Fed money. They have been able to leverage sales into hard cahsh. It is crazy, artificial cycle and has been for over a dozen years.”
ehhh…just took a quick look at all these ‘stopping citizens from traveling’ for abortion headlines…
Click-bait and fear mongering…
The Daily Mail one focuses on one TX Representative who is known to be the most radical and who won his seat by 28 votes….so, one person from one electoral district from the lowest house in one of the most conservative states…
Knowing NY politics well, the shit one could post from the far left radicals in Albany representing the most liberal districts is just as crazy….
“As of this morning, ARKK has officially underperformed the S&P 500 since inception.”
LOL. You’d need an actual act of war to destroy more value than CW has….thinking about it, wasn’t the payout for the Twin Towers destruction somewhere in the neighborhood of $6B?
I’ll have to re-run my CW value destruction numbers, she’s probably blown up four towers worth of people’s wealth…..
Give it a read, bystander. Amplified inequality.
“Welcome to America’s new ‘Zoomtowns,’ where an invasion of remote workers with big-city paychecks is driving long-time locals into tent cities and homeless shelters
Working from home has allowed white-collar knowledge workers to take their big-city paycheck to smaller, cheaper cities and towns — which hasn’t been good news for locals.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/zoom-town-inequality-remote-workers-work-from-home-big-cities-2022-4
I think you guys are being unfair. Absolutely no one saw this coming in disruptive stocks.
Libturd says:
February 23, 2021 at 11:22 am
ARKK’s price recovered a bit.
If you think down 13% when the Nasd was down 3% was bad, just wait until the market corrects and everyone bails from their FAANGS and ARKKs to put their money back into value priced staples. If market corrects 20% these names are all likely going to drop 40 to 60% easy. There is no risk management whatsoever in these funds. To meet the demand and to avoid basically owning all of the shares of the best of breed in each sector she focuses on, she must buy some crappy names too. What she going to do when the levy breaks? Move the entire fund into a money market?
Here we go 3b, JCer, Mike..crying and whining and threats from tech lobby who want their cheap labor:
INGTON—Tech-industry representatives are coming to Capitol Hill this week to warn that the remote-work trend will lead to more offshoring of software developer and other technology jobs unless the U.S. admits more high-skilled immigrants.
Remote jobs in tech jumped by more than 420% between January 2020 and last month, growth that was intensified by the pandemic, according to a jobs data review by Tecna, a trade group for regional tech councils. In February, more than 22% of all tech jobs were listed as remote, compared with 4.4% in January 2020.
chi, crazy day….stuff is hopping around all over on my screens….I’m getting that feeling we may be getting close to an edge…everyone is expecting/wanting that final pullback, BTC getting funky with that stablecoin liquidation, SOFI halted, bottom continuing to fall out of shit-spec stocks….don’t know, just getting that ‘there may be something in those bushes’ feeling…which quite frankly i welcome, if we could grab another 5-10% down and blow the horn that would be great…better than non-directional water torture through the summer into the fall…
Fab the republican far religious right is a bunch of whackos but laws like the Louisiana one are blatantly unconstitutional for a number of reasons. Furthermore birth control bans would be considered unconstitutional and require the supreme court to overturn another ruling.
Roe v Wade was a bad ruling from the supreme court but it does not mean that there isn’t an argument that could be made that certain abortions are a protected “right”. The issue isn’t the avenue of the decision but rather the scope. Were an abortion a “medically necessary” procedure you could argue the right to privacy but what we do have is historical treatment of the act of abortion which historically was considered unlawful after “quickening”. There is inconsistency in law as to how the fetus is treated, when does the fetus have “rights” under the constitution? It is that factor that makes Roe v Wade a weak decision. Based on the law as practiced around the time the Constitution was written as soon as the fetus starts kicking it was considered a “person” with rights protected under the law.
It strikes me the left is looking to use this case to stir everyone up over the fears that other cases will be overturned, make no mistake same-sex marriage is definitely at risk but birth control and sodomy is a much harder hill to climb and one that I think the supreme court is incapable of overturning, even with the current right wing bent.
I think the next logical step for the anti-abortion activists is to get a case before the supreme court to get a ruling that protects a fetus under the constitution thus outlawing abortion without a constitutional amendment in all 50 states. Basically the far right will use the left’s tactics to ban abortion without ever having to legislate and put the left on their heels to try and recover any form of abortion rights through the judiciary as they realistically close the door on legislative options.
Same crowd was calling for this every year since 2010. Guess supply chain induced inflation finally gave the doggie a bone.
You don’t remember the hate for faang? Value investors have been getting killed for a long time, and then run their victory lap when things finally go their way. Comical.
BRT says:
May 10, 2022 at 11:56 am
I think you guys are being unfair. Absolutely no one saw this coming in disruptive stocks.
The village idiot said making money on these stocks were a sure thing and a “no brainer”. The no brainer part was right.
The only value some posters provide me is that what they are a window into the stupidity of the masses.
Yes, it’s the truth. At least they pay taxes working here. It’s obvious they are going to start off-shoring. Wake up. They are blatantly saying it right here. But pumps is the idiot.
“INGTON—Tech-industry representatives are coming to Capitol Hill this week to warn that the remote-work trend will lead to more offshoring of software developer and other technology jobs unless the U.S. admits more high-skilled immigrants.
Remote jobs in tech jumped by more than 420% between January 2020 and last month, growth that was intensified by the pandemic, according to a jobs data review by Tecna, a trade group for regional tech councils. In February, more than 22% of all tech jobs were listed as remote, compared with 4.4% in January 2020.”
One sell-side contact I know was a Russian equities specialist for years, now he’s covering crypto. I feel a bit sorry for him, but he’s gone from the frying pan into the fire.
Bystander; Big business will get what they want and then the tech companies will still go remote. Also this nonsense that WFH is creating all these other issues in other places is simply that nonsense. It may be an issue in tech, but the rest of corporate America has always had geographical salary tiers for their employees. The difference with remote is that the position that was open in a NYC office can now be filled with a candidate from Atlanta or New Orleans or anywhere else. This is a negative trend in my view for NYC salaries going forward and of course NYC real estate both commercial and residential.
Long-term, great deals and you know it. Biggest producer of generational wealth is buying beat up high growing stocks during bear markets.
High growth has always behaved this way and you know it.
No One says:
May 10, 2022 at 12:12 pm
The village idiot said making money on these stocks were a sure thing and a “no brainer”. The no brainer part was right.
The only value some posters provide me is that what they are a window into the stupidity of the masses.
You are clueless.
“Also this nonsense that WFH is creating all these other issues in other places is simply that nonsense”
Same crowd was calling for this every year since 2010. Guess supply chain induced inflation finally gave the doggie a bone.
You don’t remember the hate for faang? Value investors have been getting killed for a long time, and then run their victory lap when things finally go their way. Comical.
Sorry buddy, I rode apple from $120 to 165 last year then shorted the crap out of this market at just the right time.
The Recession is going to take care of all the Fed unleashed excess bought on by cheap money, housing costs, rents, will decline, as layoffs accelerate and they will. The Fed unleashed this madness and engaged it in for over a decade. Now the cows have come home. Housing prices increase over 20 percent in a year followed by massive increase in interest rates, and we have some real estate dopes in the news claiming a flattering of prices. What will it look like when we get mortgages with a 7 handle?
For decades, the IT industry and other companies that employ IT workers have been offshoring and increasing the number of visa holders. This is not a new trend. How many stories do people like JCer and Bystander have to tell? The main reasons why certain roles remain here is because companies can’t find the right skill sets offshore – at lower costs – or a domestic presence is needed to translate and otherwise manage the offshore work (and I mean translate and manage in a very expansive way). Every single piece of tech and non-tech infrastructure needed to offshore, outsource or insource (visas) has already been in place for a long time. For the people still domestically, whether they come into the office 5 days a week or hybrid or home has zero bearing on a company’s desire to offshore if possible.
Idiot
3b,
I am closer to IT hiring strategy at large global IB than probably anyone here. Big corp structures have lost the ability to control costs. Everyone rushed to India and Poland during pandemic, many new businesses and startups with free capital. They gobbled up all the slack and paid bigger bucks for talent. Banks, like mine, have strict bands and agreed ITO rates in place with Wipro, Infosys, Accenture vendors. They are lost and can’t hire bc they can’t adapt to new wage paradigm..or even new lanbor laws and new D&I restrictions. They thought they had complete system in their pocket and now paralyzed. Oh, but not those H1b. We want more of them. We can low-ball, underpay, overwork and hold sponsorship over head for years. See it all the time. If we get enough then create some slack so we can lowball US workers who want 40-50% more than two years ago. It is a sham.
No Recession for Tom Brady, when he retires he is going to make more money commenting on football games for Fox sports than he did playing in the NFL for 22 years…
BRT,
Thanks for finding that ARKK post of mine. Man was that spot on.
This was so obviously coming. And I’m not even sure we are at the halfway point, but at 11K on the nasty, I’ll start scaling back in 10 percent at a time till we are down to 7K (which is where we probably should be based on all of the bubble inducements that have been in place since 2009.
Pumps is such a clown.
I’ve gone back to skipping his posts.
So why do you argue when I say that the platform will lead to offshoring if it’s 100% embraced?
PumpkinFace says:
May 10, 2022 at 12:35 pm
For decades, the IT industry and other companies that employ IT workers have been offshoring and increasing the number of visa holders.
And Supply chain is an excuse. Every good business plans contingencies for these types of shit storms. 2022 is still looking pretty strong at my employer. Of course, we remain nimble. Did I mention, outside of manufacturing, not a one has returned to the office full time. Most not at all, though a couple of old-schoolers (who probably hate their partners at home) who lived for the office atmosphere (the guys who were never at their desks) have ventured back in a day or two per week.
off reddit:
guy sells home of 20 years (upstate NY as I understand it) and puts $2MM into the market in January 22. Five weeks later purchases commercial mixed property for $1.36MM cash plus a 750K loan against $1.1MM brokerage account @ 3.2%.
today, with portfolio down $230K, received letter from Schwab demanding repayment of loan in full. guy needs 500K to pay cap gains tax from previous sale. can’t get a conventional loan as he is a freelance photographer.
crazy, eh?
Im talking about back in 2010-2015 era.
“Sorry buddy, I rode apple from $120 to 165 last year then shorted the crap out of this market at just the right time.”
Brt,
My point is that people are running victory laps based on the cycles we are in. No kidding, ark type high growth got smashed when the FED was forced to slam the stock market due to an anomaly with the supply chain that triggered an inflation run. The FED has been pumping since 2008, yet no inflation. Why now? That’s right, bad moves by businesses shutting down their production in anticipation of less demand that never came.
Lib: We are in a post office environment, and it’s going to continue to grow. For those that keep office space, the office will be peripheral, not central. There is no going back to some golden age of everyone in the office 5 days a week and all will return to being right with the world.
Im talking about back in 2010-2015 era.
Sorry, didn’t get killed there either.
Yes, some businesses not impacted use the excuse out of greed. But for you to blow off the broken supply chain is bs. What do you think is the source of inflation? Bunch of people trying to buy or make things, but the supply chain limiting the ability to do so. Aka limiting the amount of goods and driving up the price on the available ones. And don’t blame the FED, why didn’t this happen from 2008-2020? Everyone and their mother calling for inflation that never came during 2010-2016 era.
Libturd says:
May 10, 2022 at 1:04 pm
And Supply chain is an excuse
“I rode apple from $120 to 165 last year then shorted the crap out of this market at just the right time.”
That Feb 2021 peak was one of those outstanding opportunities that come along very rarely…nearly the entire board here was exiting if not going full on short. Hell, you and I had a tennis match shorting ARKK over nearly a year, back and forth. I just checked, I was in and out of that short three separate occasions all the way down. I don’t know when I will be able to replicate the returns from shorting ARKK and some of its constituents like ROKU and TDOC.
In other news ARKK took a position in GM…one of the guests on CNBC had the best quote…”if I were a consultant to the ARKK funds I would have told her to invest in innovation but do it in companies that will be around in two years. Maybe she is finally seeing the light…”. LOL.
“35 days Pumpkin-free”
actually Lib, his posts are very amusing in hindsight and worth reading a year later. From the same day as your post:
The Great Pumpkin says:
February 27, 2021 at 2:21 pm
And that’s my problem with the ARK haters…they are the same as the Tesla haters. They don’t acknowledge genius and just think these people are lucky. That cults are responsible for this…just bs. They are both geniuses.
I don’t know when I will be able to replicate the returns from shorting ARKK and some of its constituents like ROKU and TDOC.
I’m sure the answer is, never again. The only thing I regret is taking profits along the way on those plays.
If you hide your head in sand, there was no inflation…except near every large city where real estate went up 200% since 2008. The Fed bailouts in 2008 – 2014 went to refill coffers of bad lending worldwide and make the balance sheets looks great for all companies which pumped up stock market. It also helped pay for huge regulatory costs associated with ACA, Dodd Frank, FATCA etc. It was a bailout to make rich whole and start loan lending process all over again. Unfortunately the rich used it for buy-backs, REITS, some speculative IPOs, expensive city real estate but it never went to wages or job growth. Idiots like Krugman were mad bc thought it was too small. What happened in 2020 was complete blast of free money handouts where corps with solid balance sheets and businesses with little loss from pandemic got handed trillions for nothing, free and clear. The mal-investment is everywhere and cheap lending allows bad businesses to stay around for way longer than they should. They can’t find speculative places fast enough bc it is free money. The resulting inflation creates a vortex where people want to buy now as afraid it will cost more later. It is out of control and Fed knows it, yet afraid to remove it. If you don’t get that than truly clueless.
And I stand by it. Like all investors, they go through bad times.
You sit here and think you are invincible. So why aren’t you a millionaire? If you know more than cathie wood, why are you nowhere near her net worth? Kick her when she is down all you want, but she is highly intelligent. How many experts had their hedge funds ended in the past couple of months, and you have the ego to bash her….she is still surviving in a high growth based ETF in a major bear market. Give it a rest.
Who has been killing it this year? The only people killing it this year are the value investors that have been getting destroyed in 9 out of the last 10 years by growth investors like Cathie.
BRT says:
May 10, 2022 at 1:23 pm
What can’t you comprehend? The platform was already there – the ability to offshore was already there. More people working remotely will not change anything. When, not if, more jobs are offshores, it is because they were going to do so already. The ability to do the job outside of the physical building in the US is the easy part – and again, that has been possible for a long time.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 10, 2022 at 1:03 pm
So why do you argue when I say that the platform will lead to offshoring if it’s 100% embraced?
PumpkinFace says:
May 10, 2022 at 12:35 pm
For decades, the IT industry and other companies that employ IT workers have been offshoring and increasing the number of visa holders.
And a little tip for some on this blog….there is not a single correct way to make money in the stock market. There are traders. There are shorts. There are value investors. There are high growth investors. There are short-term investors. There are long-term investors. There is no right or wrong way to play it. You do what works for you.
If you have no patience and have no stomach, then don’t invest in high growth. Go stick to something that works for you. You can’t handle the swings. Simple as that. If you think you are going to be perfect every year when it comes to investing, then don’t invest. You will have bad runs unless you are god.
Very good Bystander. That is pretty much it in a nutshell.
I’ll add, the average income in the US is 31K. To keep the markets from imploding during covid, the crooks in DC gave nearly every adult in our country over $3,000. They also gave the same adults who had kids, an extra $2,500 per. That is $11,000 in discretionary spending per family on top of the fact that most families were already saving handsomely from Covid protocols which reduced the cost of working as well as limited the places where discretionary money would be spent. So lots of money was blown on either shite people didn’t need. Or high risk investments. Everything was booming until, those payments stopped. The demand from that boom, is what caused the supply chain problem, which is what lead to the runaway inflation. Businesses all knew it would be a temporary effect. So no one was willing to say (drill for more oil or produce enough micro-chips). So whatever was out there went up in price (supply and demand). To exacerbate the situation, the demand remains so high (due to all of this new money floating around) that the FED has to reduce the inflation before it really runs away. Only, it was so friggin’ low due to Trump’s stupidity, that it will take that much more of a move upwards to start applying the brakes on the inflation. And the more interest rates need to be increased, the more the market will have to suffer. And trust me, housing is the next shoe to fall.
” You will have bad runs unless you are god.”
Would you like me to forward you some membership information in the church of Libturd?
Where the only wild swings that occur are upwards?
That’s pure bs. You know it, or they would have done it already. Workers claiming they can do the job remotely is now giving them the confidence to act on it. If you think the rest of the world isn’t catching up in education, that they can’t do your job for much cheaper, you are lost.
PumpkinFace says:
May 10, 2022 at 1:33 pm
What can’t you comprehend? The platform was already there – the ability to offshore was already there. More people working remotely will not change anything. When, not if, more jobs are offshores, it is because they were going to do so already. The ability to do the job outside of the physical building in the US is the easy part – and again, that has been possible for a long time.
Go ahead, embrace the remote if you are old, just know that you are f/ing your kids. Total boomer move.
And if you have kids in their 20’s and you let them work remotely…you are a bad parent. You are giving them horrible advice. They are kids, they are always going to take the low hanging fruit. They have no idea that this will lead to more competition for their job as it is opened up to offshoring.
Lib: I believe we will see mortgages with a 7 before year end. I remember back in the day when that was considered a great rate. I also think the Fed could do a 75 bp increase, the fact they said they would not means they could, and that’s why the market after initial euphoria on the day of the Fed announcement which said they would not means they could, and the market has reacted accordingly. I recall this same scenario vividly from back in the day when we had a real market, which is what we may be returning to. Fed put is dead in my view.
You mean it was a bailout to keep the economy functioning. Real estate was going down in north jersey till about 2017. So wtf are you talking about? There was massive inflation? Get real. We just lived through a beautiful period where the dollar menu was almost the same for 2 decades. I agree to disagree.
“It was a bailout to make rich whole and start loan lending process all over again.”
Cathie Wood on May commentary call. Shorting of innovation is “incomprehensible”. “Shorts will be forced to cover”. She admits we are in a “bear market”. Says Fed is “misgauging” interest rate increases. Says inflation is “topping”. She says indicators are “screaming” at the Fed (implying they are tightening into a recession). Says “truth will win out” as far as disruptors’ performance.
Of course the counter argument is that her list of “disruptors” is nothing more than a group of hi P/E (or no P/E), high beta stocks. Fortunately she did not reuse the term “deep value” to describe her holdings. She also did not reiterate her 5 year 40% return call made in 12/21 when ARKK was at 98 (now a 75% return over 4.5 years based on current ARKK price). She also neglected to comment on her former wrong call on crude oil prices.
Pumps.
My net worth is 40K higher today than it was on November 30th 2021. On top of this, we’ve had significant medical billing (just met our family max out of pocket), legal bills (well over 10K) and have sunk over 10K into the multi to prep it for sale. And of course, the D’s 70K per year private school (after insurance is paid). The second half of the year tends to be all gravy for us.
Go into your MINT or Yodlee or Investnet and tell me the difference in your net worth since November of last year.
You don’t have to take big hits, if you are not a greedy pig.
Or in your case, a gambler.
Okay, Copernicus. Make another one of your epic EPIC calls. Give me examples of specific types of jobs that weren’t offshored previously that will start to be now?
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 10, 2022 at 1:54 pm
That’s pure bs. You know it, or they would have done it already. Workers claiming they can do the job remotely is now giving them the confidence to act on it. If you think the rest of the world isn’t catching up in education, that they can’t do your job for much cheaper, you are lost.
Lib,
You are seriously killing it. That’s not easy to do. I really don’t know anyone (including wall st pros) that has not lost money at some point in the market over time.
Ever think that you missed your shot on wall st?
Gambler? Well, that’s the bread and butter of capitalism. If you are not taking risks, you will not go anywhere. Thank the gamblers. That’s who is responsible for all the innovation in our life.
As noted here previously it is the Millenials and Gen Z who are the largest percentage wise of the workforce who want remote or hybrid, followed by Gen X and the the Boomers last. Support is high in all demographics but highest in the first two I noted and again last among the Boomers. It is also the Boomer CEO s like Dimon and Solomon and Cooke who are outspoken in their dislike of remote/ hybrid. Although, Dimon is softening his opposition, which is no surprise.
Plain and simple, any job that can be done remotely is asking to compete with the rest of the world. Don’t belittle me, just use logic combined with human nature (greed).
I have a question for you. How do you not comprehend that location based in person jobs have huge moats around them? Why would you give that up? Why?!!
PumpkinFace says:
May 10, 2022 at 2:24 pm
Okay, Copernicus. Make another one of your epic EPIC calls. Give me examples of specific types of jobs that weren’t offshored previously that will start to be now?
This is hilarious.
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/
Lots of math and statistics, and technically adept, but the assumptions are ultimately mostly imagination. Something that I notice the young and/or naive are prone to do – vastly overestimate their ability to predict major changes. Also is very much using an “inside view” rather than “outside view” approach to forecasting.
I’ve seen many inexperienced analysts build extremely detailed models, but the problem is that they have no particular strength in forecasting the inputs or likelihoods of the models.
Lib,
You know what’s funny. You say you are not a gambler. Then why do support removing the moat for in person jobs and replacing them with remote jobs? That’s clearly a huge gamble, but I get it, you won’t be impacted. You made your money and are retiring.
You do realize that 100% of the jobs that were initially offshored decades ago and a decade after that and I’d still say the vast majority a decade after that were all in person 5 days a week?
The fact that some IT worker went into the office 5 days a week pre-covid had nothing to do with why it wasn’t outsourced.
I do feel bad belittling you, and I’ll stop now, because you are functionally retarded.
Face,
Read this you mental midget. From the horses mouth. Then please go tell yourself you are a f/ing idiot.
“INGTON—Tech-industry representatives are coming to Capitol Hill this week to warn that the remote-work trend will lead to more offshoring of software developer and other technology jobs unless the U.S. admits more high-skilled immigrants.
Remote jobs in tech jumped by more than 420% between January 2020 and last month, growth that was intensified by the pandemic, according to a jobs data review by Tecna, a trade group for regional tech councils. In February, more than 22% of all tech jobs were listed as remote, compared with 4.4% in January 2020.”
Grim
Please blacklist any pumpkin post mentioning WFH. He can pretend to know the market but not WFH
Oh okay. I guess the industry trade association (lobbyists) are pushing for what’s best for the US common worker and not what’s best for the multinational corporations’ bottom lines. Never would they try scare tactics to increase the number of visas to continue to put downward wage pressure on the jobs here.
Pumpkin, are you buying DNA hand-over-fist today? It is at $2.50/share. I think you were recently excited about buying around this level.
What percent of your net worth are you targeting for your allocation to DNA? What percent of new savings from your household are you investing in this each month?
I ask because Pumpkin had commentary on high-growth above.
“I’ve seen many inexperienced analysts build extremely detailed models, but the problem is that they have no particular strength in forecasting…”
The model itself is the simplest of commodities, little content change since before spreadsheets….knowledge and analyses are the value added, and sorely lacking at ARKK.
Thanks Trick. It is so utterly true.
The his lack of self awareness drives his self-centered bias in nearly everything he does and says. Freud would have a field day with him. Know knowing a bit about his father’s unfortunate demise. Much of Pump’s peculiar behaviors should be attributed to it.
DNA is 2.50, LOL? I got in my tranche in the 2.90s in March, exiting two weeks later in three trades up 30/40/40%. Weighted average sale price 3.99 for 34% all-in. Got out as every idiot and their brother were screaming ‘to the moon!’.
Since CW is all about transparency I’d love for her to post her cost basis in her holdings…if she did that I guarantee she’d lose 50% of her AUM as people looked and realized that outside of TSLA it’s hard to find someone with worse returns….
OK boys and girls, let’s crowdsource a shopping list.
Favorite picks for reasonably valued, decent moat, liquid, recession insensitive stocks with upside.
I’m back in FB as of yesterday morning right around these levels…more comfortable lower (my line as always has been at 175), but it’s an opening position by way of options.
Looking at TGT now.
Contributions?
And Pumps. My parent’s always saw me on Wall Street. I used to watch the tickers go by for hours on the early days of CNBC. I also read the financial pages in the Sunday Times front to back through out most of my childhood. It came as no surprise to my parents when I won the stock picking contest in my 7th(?) grade economics class. But one thing that my dad taught me combined with the urging of a great micro economics professor from my undergrad kept me away. My dad would constantly remind me that if the Kramers and Buffets were so good at making money, why didn’t they just do it with their OWN money. Why did they always need other’s capital to manage? I took Baytas about 30 years ago. His demeanor was hilarious and he gave me great advice in suggesting I leave the Economics major since I was too smart to teach. He’s still teaching there today and one of the most popular profs on campus.
Left. Lam Research (just not yet). Also consider Medifast. If there is one lesson to be learned from the popping of the tech bubble is 2000. It’s that it took a very long time before the names people liked before the crash, were liked again after the crash. Everyone wanted new names. So try to focus on small caps (no need to borrow money at high interest rates) that are recession proof.
“My dad would constantly remind me that if [people] were so good at making money, why didn’t they just do it with their OWN money.”
Hahaha…the magic of Wall Street…
If you are very good you make prodigious amounts of money putting your own capital at risk.
If you are truly outstanding, you make prodigious amounts of money putting OTHER people’s capital at risk…..
blown on either shite people didn’t need. Or high risk investments.
Sorry if you are earning $31K neither of these apply to you. You are paying off debt or , buying essentials or hoarding it.
Sluming it in the United Lounge at Newark. I have one of those sleep bed seats for the RedEye to Europe. It was a nice miles upgrade.
JCEr a lot of Roe is based on Right to Privacy as is Griswold vs CT. So if Roe goes the dominos start to fall.
One of those unintended consequences will be the 2A defenses that are predicated on privacy in the home.
Everyone please keep in mind that the local blockhead thrives on any kind of attention, including negative attention. He was starting to wilt while being mostly ignored the last month, but now all this ridicule is making him er3ct, 3jaculating his stupidities all over the board. Stop fluffing him.
Had MED on my watchlist since you mentioned it. Did note it held up better than market yesterday although down harder today….
LRCX….semis scare me. one sector I never get into too deeply as there are so many people who know the nuances so well. Maybe time to take a look, might be easier entree going with a supplier to that industry.
I’m playing with a ST thesis now that we get a huge relief rally off of the June Fed meeting…second 50 will be behind us, no 75, and solid clarity on the July meeting with no meeting until Sept. Think there will be a huge sigh.
Longer term, I’m with you…looking for growth companies beneath the larger caps…once the all-clear sounds I think people exit MAGA since they are effectively TINA right now and investors instead look for reasonably priced growth.
According to ATTOM a property data analytics firm based out of Irvine Ca, 8 counties in NJ are in a bubble and subject to decline based on their analysis. Those counties include Bergen, Essex, Middlesex, Hunterdon, and, Passaic.
Fidelity vs TD Ameritrade. I have to get out of the slump I am in and just try learning something.
Which is better to try? Any preference?
So market Gurus where are you on Twitter? I gave this deal a zero chance. When the initial approach fell down when he was told they would do a deep dive on his background. That’s when I,ll but the whole thing came out. Can’t see it ever gettting oven the line with Musk at the helm.
https://twitter.com/nikiw/status/1524090256307412992?s=21&t=4WOSOFrRKX5adabquzxSNQ
It’s never too late. Do it!! You were born for this.
Libturd says:
May 10, 2022 at 3:32 pm
And Pumps. My parent’s always saw me on Wall Street.
I will try to work on it.
I don’t personally know anyone on this blog (except for grim now). I use this blog to basically spit out whatever is on my mind with no cares. In person, I have to hold it in and play to the audience.
I will try to keep the WFH talk out of my posts. Self awareness is correct. I don’t even know why I talk about it and obsess over it when it doesn’t impact me. I’m a teacher, and my job is not going anywhere. Why should I even care about the negatives I see with remote work. Will try my best. Hopefully the troll 3b stops trying to get under my skin.
Libturd says:
May 10, 2022 at 3:19 pm
Thanks Trick. It is so utterly true.
The his lack of self awareness drives his self-centered bias in nearly everything he does and says. Freud would have a field day with him. Know knowing a bit about his father’s unfortunate demise. Much of Pump’s peculiar behaviors should be attributed to it.
If a stock goes down because the sector or market is crashing, that is a buying opportunity. If it goes down because something the company did, then you have to evaluate if you want to buy more. If you are not willing to buy more at the current price, you should be selling.
crushednjmillenial says:
May 10, 2022 at 3:16 pm
Pumpkin, are you buying DNA hand-over-fist today? It is at $2.50/share. I think you were recently excited about buying around this level.
What percent of your net worth are you targeting for your allocation to DNA? What percent of new savings from your household are you investing in this each month?
I ask because Pumpkin had commentary on high-growth above.
That’s why I don’t get all the hate for high growth or cathie. It’s a volatile sector. Could she have better risk management, sure, but then wtf is the point of her fund? If she plays scared and worries about big losses, she will never ever do as well as she does when the market turns. Why do you think she was the master of the bull run? No one could touch her and it’s because of how she plays the f’ing market.
There is no crying if you are in high growth during a bear market. You should know what you are investing in. If you don’t want to lose money, wtf are you risking it for? Go do a boring index where you will never lose big, but you won’t win big either. Understand this.
Here is a good one, Fab.
https://tinyurl.com/cm5w449n
You think you are going to win big playing stocks that are safe and everyone likes? No, that’s when you are supposed to be selling it. Should have been buying when no one liked it and called it garbage.
That’s how I know long-term from these prices you can’t lose with ark right now. Everyone and their mother bashes it. Aka fire sale!!!
How much blood you buy today? Nothing? of course
I use ameritrade and I like it. Perfect time to start getting your feet wet and learning. Huge opportunities are out there, don’t forget to share when you find a good one. You know I recommend throwing some money at DNA. High risk/high reward play.
Phoenix says:
May 10, 2022 at 5:01 pm
Fidelity vs TD Ameritrade. I have to get out of the slump I am in and just try learning something.
Which is better to try? Any preference?
Face, give the hate a rest.
I have not bought anything since it got slammed. I’m trying to see how low this latest drop will go. Do I absolutely love the current pricing…watering at the mouth…you double your money if it hits 5 and almost a 5 bagger if it hits 10. If they execute, this stock is going to make people a lot of money.
Phoenix, TD. Although not needed with the interwebs they do have a very good ‘knowledge center’ that covers a lot of basics on an array of topics, not just the obvious. Futures for beginners for example.
Their Think or Swim platform is tops in terms of analysis…a little clunky with unique and not necessarily intuitive handshakes you’ll need to learn but the amount of free data and powerful analytics is tops for retail.
Plus, when you’re ready, they are among the best on margin requirements.
Even if you don’t use many of their features it is likely to your benefit to make it your platform as switching among brokers is cumbersome as it requires you to re-learn new specific nuances…I have two other primary platforms but I keep a cash balance in ToS just to have access to some of the data only they offer and some of the analytics. The only reason I don’t use it as my primary is because I have so many years on my main platform and don’t want to invest the time in learning a new app to the extent I would need to make it my primary. If you’re going to invest the time best to do it on a platform that you can grow with.
If you like your house and don’t plan on selling, do you freak out if Zillow says your home value dropped?
Your portfolios current price is only an appraisal. Wait to look what it’s worth when you want to sell it.
It’s like how I got bashed on this blog for overpaying on my house. What did I say. I said 2020’s it will be much higher than what I payed for. I was told…no way! Well, what happened? Does it really matter if I paid 600k or 650k if I’m holding long-term? Apply the same mindset to stocks.
35 Days Comment free!! I am better for it, and so is the blog.
Neither,
Go with Interactive Brokers. Is a manual transmission Ferrari. So, yes you got to know the basic, no traction control system -aka no hand holding,
Petterfy was a computer geek since the 60’s. So its very tech heavy.
Great security. Great app. You can use website, but if on a computer best is their Traders Workstation app. You get paid if your shares are rented out in margin account. Limited margin account for IRAs – meaning you can day trade in it. They have robo-advisor (Interactive Advisors -which has very cheap 0.08%+/- fee for their branded direct indexing portfolio. Lowest margin rate. Have 2 tiers Lite – earn less interest & they make money off how they route your trade ( a vig); professional you got to have minimum monthly trades, but you get paid if your trades provide liquidity into their pool. Global trades in everything (currencies/commodities/derivcatives,etc) and multi-currency settlement, plus their Integrated Cash Management for their Billpay/Debit card which you control and approve via phone app any transaction over 1k till your account value/margin limit.
BTW, a few post someone mentioned whether Russia was selling from their Sovereign Wealth Fund, definitely. Add also the Saudis, they don’t like Biden and want to trash him. Saudi Aramco is selling oil to Asia at discount vs full price to USA. Remember 18 of 19 hijackers were from that camel farm.
Maybe shut up with the relentless commentary that you’re so certain is correct yet won’t act on.
PS. You’re right about your house… just like all people who bought at the peak of the housing bubble, all they have to do is not die and they will ultimately be okay, right? No matter if it takes 5-10-50 years. No such thing as opportunity cost. No negatives at all.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 10, 2022 at 6:45 pm
Face, give the hate a rest.
I have not bought anything since it got slammed. I’m trying to see how low this latest drop will go. Do I absolutely love the current pricing…watering at the mouth…you double your money if it hits 5 and almost a 5 bagger if it hits 10. If they execute, this stock is going to make people a lot of money.
I remember telling people that my house was actually cheap since it was going to be my house till i retire. They couldn’t understand what I am saying. Now, I wish I could find such a cheap house…not going to happen. Yes, they couldn’t understand because they weren’t focused on the long-term big picture, they could only focus on the now. To them, I paid too much money. In my mind, i’ll pay the premium for a turn key desirable home that in the long-term is going to save me chit loads of money if I stay for at least 20 years.
8 more years and I am mortgage free. Such a good feeling.
Phoenix, I prefer F over T. I just prefer the interface, display and mobile app compared to other competitors.
Given that there are no or low minimum initial deposits to open an account, no monthly fees, zero trading commissions, open both and see which one you like best.
Hey Jcer..wow, Blumpy said this whole outsourcing thing may take off soon. I hope the big banks don’t catch on. Might even impact GS.
“Goldman Sachs added 3,400 new staff in 2021. It kept hiring right through to the final quarter, when 900 new people turned up.
Does this mean it’s become easy to get a job at Goldman Sachs? That all depends upon where in the world you’re looking for one.
Speaking during today’s investor call, Goldman CFO Denis Coleman said that 90% of the 900 people hired by the firm in the final quarter were not in major financial centers like London, New York or Hong Kong. They were in lower cost locations, where staff are cheaper to hire.
Coleman didn’t elaborate on where these lower cost locations are, but they’re not much of a secret. – Goldman has long been building out its Bengalaru campus since 2019 and currently has over 1,000 vacancies there, of which around 300 are in global markets or engineering. In the U.K. and the U.S., it’s also hiring technologists in Dallas and Birmingham respectively.
Fabs, assuming you’re serious and not trolling…saying the current share price at any time is the market’s assessment of the likelihood of closure of the TWTR deal is a truism…at 100% certainty TWTR share price should be at only a slight discount to the 54.20, representing the time value of money. Anything less, proportionally, represents increased skepticism of deal closure.
Today is a pretty big discount at 47.26….
Not going to engage in any tinfoil hat analysis…would note that TWTR and its Board are being represented by counsel among the best and beyond reproach…Wilson Sonsini and Simpson Thatcher. Hard to find two better in securities law or most other corporate areas. Bottom line, whatever the noise around motivation for the deal anything approved by the Board – including the deal itself – has to face scrutiny from these counsel so once agreed I would take it at face value….I suspect, but haven’t researched, that the decline in TWTR and implied lower confidence in deal closure results from the precipitous decline in TSLA shares with the market wondering how much pain Musk can suffer on TSLA holdings before he (or his financing partners) get cold feet. Would also note that a large discount is not that unusual for deals that ultimately close, two I know of recently from trading them are BMY/CELG and AMD/XLNX. They had spreads to offer, for different reasons, pretty far into the process.
Bystander: GS has a big presence in Salt lake area as well, and has had it for years.
Anyone else running a screen on companies with a market cap still above $2B, and sorting it by distance from 52-week high?
Some (low?)-lights:
UPST: -91.63%
DIDI: -91.28%
CVNA: -90.27%
PTON: -90.05%
AFRM: -89.7%
HOOD: -89.09%
RIVN: -87.3%
DNA: -84.81%
AMC: -83.7%
RBLX: -83.62%
DKNG: -82%
COIN: -80%
Pumpkin re DNA . . .
So, it’s 85% off its 52-week high. Are you waiting until it is 95% off before jumping into this company that you’re very bullish on?
He was never waiting. He was buying towards the end of October.
DNA 11 to 2.4
ARKG 75 to 30
BTC 64k to 30k
More recently, he “caught the bottom” at $3 on DNA
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 19, 2021 at 1:58 pm
That DNA buy from last week is going off. Bought with blood in the streets, and got lucky. Believe in it long term, did not expect such a quick rebound off the short attack.
Also made some money on the bitcoin run in the past 2 weeks. Still holding, expect it to pass up 64k sometime soon. This guy I follow absolutely owns the bitcoin charts.
ARK G is starting to move, it is an absolute steal at current pricing if you are playing it long term.
Phoenix,
Schwab has bought TDA. Q3 ’23 is approx when all the TD accounts covert to Schwab. They are keeping the Think or Swim platform and I believe if you go to Schwab now, you can use Think or Swim immediately.
This is exhausting. Let me try to explain. You are mocking people that bought amazon at 200 and is now at 10 dollars early 2000s. Biotech is an absolute fire sale right now and you are mocking it instead of praising the insane deals right now. Says a lot. That’s the difference between you and I. You are too focused on the now instead of the big picture. Yes, there are going to be tko losers in biotech right now, but the winners are going to be better than lottery tickets.
Come on, biotech cycles are exactly like crypto. How many times we been through this in the past 20 years. The most ruthless. Insanity, but there is winning formula with this just like every other cycle for different products/sectors.
DNA has been developing since 2007. They are almost at the promise land. Management had been top notch, even against the short attack propaganda calling it a fraud, that have now been proven false. This is a winner baby.
“ARK G is starting to move, it is an absolute steal at current pricing if you are playing it long term.”
Brt,
That’s how I know you are a doom and gloomer. Instead of acknowledging the sick deals becoming available, you are still focused on mocking the drops.
crushed, you can add Unity (U) to that list…
$210 (Nov) to $48 close today…
And down 30% after hours to $38 after issuing lower guidance.
And, of course, it goes without saying this pig is in ARKK. Tenth largest holding, $314m, 4% of the fund…..
Good likelihood she follows her moves of last week, dumping shares the day after they plummet. We’ll see, LOL.
Shits going down big and fast people.
Grim says:
May 10, 2022 at 10:09 pm
Shits going down big and fast people.
Totally agree, although it will also affect real estate …. all real estate except million dollar properties which people buy all cash. I realize most everyone here thinks real estate is
untouchable , but nobody here can handle an 8-9 % mortgage plus increased NJ taxes. We are all used to virtual zero interest rates.
Click on the video on the link…listen esp to the 55 min mark. DNA is building an ecosystem that will make them the most powerful player in a brand new sector….
https://twitter.com/varro_analytics/status/1414526185900584962?s=21&t=_PQ0e8miPkogLhBcmyl1Uw
Think of it as the app store of bio manufacturing.
Honestly, if DNA takes off. In 20 years, you won’t be eating steak from a live cow as we know it. It will be manufactured and DNA will be getting a piece of that pie because they make it easy for companies to develop whatever product they need for a royalty off future sales. Absolutely f’ing brilliant for an emerging sector that is going to be the talk of the town sometime during this decade.
I don’t see how real estate would go unaffected. I’m down something like 800k across my accounts in like 2 weeks, I’m invested in broad indexes, and big companies with strong fundamentals. Basically all my pandemic gains from the last 2 years have been wiped out in 2 weeks, basically a 20% drop in value.
From what I can see those of us fortunate enough to have investments are feeling less financially secure and much poorer, that is not going to help bid up housing, forget selling equities to buy a home when your position lost 20%. Then the rest of America who doesn’t have a pot to piss in are ringing up debt and the increase in rates threatens to ruin them financially. From what I can see the well off is getting squeezed by the market crash where we have parked most of our money and the regular folks can’t afford to pay with the increased interest rates and inflation. Basically a one-two punch where the rich are getting hit in their investments and Joe 6 pack is getting squeezed by rates, inflation, and slowing wage growth/job opportunity.
Remember, I see layoffs before they are announced.
So the coin clowns Ponzi schemes are now failing in droves and the are blaming a Federal Reserve paper just released.
Thet even manage to get some traction on that with stories in the MSM too, comparing it to the failure of Lehman
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/05/10/unstable-stablecoin-how-cryptos-crash-broke-the-buck-for-terrausd/?sh=47708f636ff4
The Zoom meeting of doom…
https://www.engadget.com/carvana-zoom-layoffs-221427957.html
Pumps – re: “ In 20 years, you won’t be eating steak”
Lab grown meat, sure lots of startups, still not cheap or scalable, but you might be right you may not be eating steak in 20 years but not because there aren’t anymore cows but because peoples tastes changed, if you can grow cow meat in a lab well then you can grow long pig too, but to do that you still need a donation of bovine blood of calf fetuses to culture the human or cow or pig or giraffe or pick your designer meat. Lots and Lots of calf fetuses….
I’ll bet Cathy Woods has no idea about that. We will need to inseminate lots of cows then kill and extract their fetuses to get the fetus blood essential to growing lab grown meat. It will make factory farming AKA the “meatrix” look humane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEkc70ztOrc
Tech layoffs? There is an App for that, don’t tell Congress about the layoffs we need more H-1B visas to keep the payroll down.
https://layoffs.fyi/
It seems Coinbase did not pay the green fee to do business in India.
“Coinbase halted trading service in India because of “informal pressure” from the Reserve Bank of India, the crypto exchange’s chief executive said on Tuesday, addressing the notable Indian episode for the first time in a month.
The Nasdaq-listed firm launched its eponymous crypto trading service in India to much fanfare on April 7. The app allowed users in the world’s second largest internet market to buy crypto tokens using UPI, a highly popular Indian payments infrastructure built by a coalition of retail banks. But just three days after the launch, the firm rolled back the service without an explanation.
The move followed a strange statement made by the National Payments Corporation of India, the governing body that oversees UPI in the country, in which it refused to acknowledge UPI support on Coinbase’s app.
Asked about the Indian episode on the company’s earnings call, Coinbase co-founder and chief executive Brian Armstrong said Coinbase disabled UPI “because of some informal pressure from the Reserve Bank of India.”
Armstrong pointed out that cryptocurrency trading is not illegal in India — in fact, the South Asian nation just recently started to tax it — but there are “elements in the government there, including at Reserve Bank of India, who don’t seem to be as positive on it. And so they — in the press, it’s been called a ‘shadow ban,’ basically, they’re applying soft pressure behind the scenes to try to disable some of these payments, which might be going through UPI,” he said.
The Reserve Bank of India’s action “may be actually in violation of the Supreme Court ruling, which would be interesting to find out if it were to go there. But I think our preference is really just to work with them and focus on relaunching. I think there’s a number of path that we have to relaunch with other payment methods there. And that’s the default path going forward,” he said.”
Keep us up to date, Grim as much as you can. This will be a doozy with all the flimsy start-ups in NYC.
They can’t give that beyond meat stuff away anymore. Most places have dropped it. Anyone with any experience in food industry. I seriously doubt you are going to ever produce a steak as good as a USDA prime cut in a lab. Anyone with experience with fermentation/baking knows that natural processes always produce a far superior product.
If you ever see the lengths they go to in Italy to preserve quality, they have an entire government task force that tests products to make sure they aren’t counterfeit. And they actually do their jobs and take pride in it.
and some startups not so flimsy… expect more and more of these stories now, and this one is not even a super duper superior algorithmic stablecoin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/10/business/bolt-start-up-ryan-breslow-investors.html
I understand that all the high-growth, no earnings companies were dramatically overvalued – but this has been true for a long time. I understand that the Fed is raising rates. But, I’m having a hard time grasping how quickly the market fell WITHOUT A PARTICULAR TRIGGER. That is, go back to January 4. I don’t think much changed on Jan. 5, but that was the first day after the peak. I suppose the same thing happened in 2000 – there was not really a particular trigger. In 2008, I’d need to look at a chart, but I thought big bank news preceded the declines.
Four months ago – “best time to be an employee in history – change jobs and collect big raise”
Today – “some layoffs are here and you can see the flashes of lightning from the layoff storm clouds in the distance”
Grim – a Request Please?
Next headline “Shits Going Down”
That’s how I know you are a doom and gloomer. Instead of acknowledging the sick deals becoming available, you are still focused on mocking the drops.
Yes, the doom and gloomer that bought the bottom two years ago. I’ll hunt for bargains soon enough. What kind of gains are you hoping for over the next year? In your wildest dreams will you match the gains obtained from shorting a stock that dropped 75%.
Crushed. There need not be an event. It was inflation doing it’s thing, like yeast in a bowl of dough left overnight.
Remember, I called this pretty near spot on. JCer, I wish you listened to me. I knew it was over when all of that massive, massive, money printing and stimulus was being distributed to companies and individuals that didn’t need it. Add in the greatest bull market in history and the fact I made nearly 100% on my low-risk investments in slightly over two years and the writing was on the wall. When I started bitching about inflation late last year and all of the massive tax gain/loss harvesting at the end of the year and the impact the new tax plan would have on those who formally itemized and this was never in question. Sprinkle in a little war in Russia and a country that is more divided than ever and a car shortage that has everyone paying thousands extra on their purchases and leases and this was bound to happen. Plus, 20% annual increases on homes? As usual, the market giveth and taketh away to those who think you can’t time the market.
And I’m sure you guys all saw that so far the FED has not put a dent in inflation as the numbers came in smoking this morning. Believe me, it’s out of control.
Crushed….. re:” I understand that the Fed is raising rates” and ” grasping how quickly the market fell” “without a trigger”
It sometimes seems like it takes forever for the markets to rise, well the pandemic recovery is now long over. Markets usually fall pretty quickly, and well everyone should have been expecting it (believing it is another issue). Fed has been telegraphing raising rates for a long time now and that time has come and gone, everyone sitting here in disbelief well that should be over by now too.
Fed Report released yesterday does a decent job of explaining where the issues are.
Business Credit is a main driver, it is now becoming expensive for businesses to borrow. We should see it start to slow considerably.
Business Credit $18,541 trillion
Page 22 Table 2.1
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20220509.pdf
Along with Business Credit there is Household credit.
17,933 Trillion
What SHOCKS are next? Take a read, some interesting stuff. CBDC (central bank digital currency) means bye bye bitcoin etc.
Liquidity is MENTIONED. <—- YEAH Think Lehman and money markets circa 2008…..except this is the solvency of the USA. Bond markets could seize up when the Fed stops rolling over their UST and MBS.
Not saying it is gonna happen but the FED is worried. That means we all should be worried.
Juice/crushed,
It was a game of chicken with Fed. Cajole, lie and leverage until you can not squeeze the orange any further. Now it is now run for the gates and get money back before the whole thing collapses. That is the Wall Street way. A certain dufus here who did not live through 2000 tech bubble gets easily swayed by shiny new words and projections, like a dangling keys at a baby. I remember in 1999, working at telecom startup. CEO first focused on potential market and investors clamored. He then focused on new contracts and investors clamored. He focused on new fiber optic technology vs Verizon dinosaur model and the investors clamored…BWMs (you own lease) offered to all employees, sales person got Audi TT roadster at company meeting in 2000. IPO happened in mid-2000. It was corporate Caligula…then things tightened. Entire exec board retired day after IPO. Stock started at 22 and started sliding a few days later. It was down to 15, 10, 5 after several months. Investors asked what about new contracts? “Oh, we have them but Verizon owns final leg to customer and their provisioning is way behind. They are the problem’ Stock down to pennies after 4 months. Layoffs everywhere. It is coming again. The hubris at places like Bolt are tip of iceberg with Cathie Wood, the skeleton looking siren ready to crash people on the rocks.
I think the democrats are trying to cancel America.
I watched Queen of Versailles last night. The story takes place a decade ago, post crash and a billionaire (Seigel) struggling to keep time-share empire going with tight lending. It is such a perfect documentary on mind of wealthy. He kept repeating that “cheap money was needed”. “We got addicted to cheap money and kept buying”. “We need cheap money”. He then yells at family for keeping doors open and wasting heat in 100,000 sf mansion. Lays off huge amounts of company and house staff while wife goes on shopping sprees and building even bigger mansion. They are “poor and struggling now”..woe is me. They have nanny living in kids play house in back, literally. This is our system. Nothing changes.
Lib & BRT – speaking of Italy, standards and inflation.
Bought a pizza yesterday, a plain one, and I picked it up. Paid $19.25 with tax and left a three dollar tip as they had a large tip cup on the counter with sign on it. I have not bought a pizza in a long long while but I caved to as my kids were complaining and I could not want to make one as we did not make any dough recently.
Well it had a super thin crust and hardly any cheese on it. When I picked up the box I thought it was empty!!!
There is an association in Napoli for making sure a good pizza is made. This large American pie I bought did not even meet those international standards for what is considered a 12-13 diameter inch pizza.
NEVER AGAIN…will I buy from them..
Juice at 9:19 . . .
Good report. Interesting data at page 62, table 5.2.
Respondents note “most-cited potential problem over next 12-18 months” from respondents to fed surveys. Interesting to see the difference between Fall 2021 and Spring 2022.
I’ve been waiting a long long time for this kind of opportunity. Might be pain for a couple years, but the FED will come to the rescue and the cycle will start again like it always does.
I honestly believe by Oct of this year or sometime next year will be the start of the next bull market. High growth has already been getting slammed for more than a year since last Feb. Inflation already peaked, and will soon shoot down as fast as it came up. In a short amount of time, we will go from not enough products to oversupplied. Then we start the slow move up again in the economic growth cycle.
“A certain dufus here who did not live through 2000 tech bubble gets easily swayed by shiny new words and projections, like a dangling keys at a baby. “
Article in The NY Times, Fed Officials questioning themselves that they may have waited too long to raise rates. Really???
3B,
It’s always the same story. How were they to know?
Libturd
What was the site where the guy only bought 5 stocks a year? I think it was an etf with 20-30 stocks.
Still can’t believe I hit the timing of this market almost perfectly. 100% out in the first week of January. Talk about a winning lottery ticket based on how much is in that 401k and when you account for compounding. Pretty much saved every dollar made in this last bull run. Now get to start with the same amount of money for the next cycle. Thank you, god! Appreciate it. Rather be lucky than the smartest guy in the room.
Saw an opinion piece on Marketwatch, basically says all is good, economy is strong? No hard landing, maybe a little bumpy. People have stashed away pandemic money. I guess he missed the piece on the dramatic increase in credit card borrowing. As for the money stashed, I would think it’s reasonable to believe most who got it, spent it long ago.
Bystander,
The Queen of Versailles isn’t a window into the minds of most wealthy people. It’s a good documentary about how scammers eventually get what they deserve, as their evasions of reality crash down all around them.
Most ultra- wealthy people I’ve known have been diligent, hard working, and generally live well below their means. Unless you knew them, you wouldn’t know that they are super-wealthy. I’m sure there are groups of rich who act badly, I guess they are in places that I’m not around. Bitcrap scammers, multi-level marketers, hip hop and hollywood “artists”, or worthless heirs. In general, to the extent anyone who gets rich and goes out and buys castles, Lamborghinis, etc., to show off, is a good indicator of how short-lived their success is likely to last. Don’t envy them, they are generally miserable people. The very fact that they were willing to put themselves and their family in front of cameras to make the show is a tip-off to their character. I don’t know any hard-working ultra-rich that would put up with or be interested in that.
Lib: It was pretty damn clear in my mind and a lot of other people on the blog. They most certainly should have known.
What a decade it was 2012-2022… rode 100% high growth faang hard in a epic run up in this bull market and then timed it almost perfectly (november was optimum exit). Life is good sometimes.
HMB, Eddie Elfenbein’s Crossing Wall Street.
You will learn more from him (his free newsletter) than anyone else. Heck. He tells you his trades ahead of time, so you can just mirror them. That’s how transparent he is. He is someone Wall Street should be making a hero out of. Though, his ETF only pays him well if it performs well. It has a unique manager pay structure that Wall Street would never accept. They like to get paid both when they make and lose your money.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/
Juice, they even go beyond what anyone could fathom in terms of testing.
For example, on Prosciuto di Parma, they test to make sure the proper breed of pig was used. When it’s hanging in the warehouse, they take small samples. Parmagiano Reggiano is also vigorously tested as well. On the olive oil front, they have a whole analytical chemist team and a full staff of people who’s only job is to taste the olive oil.
Lib, the tax consequences of selling would have been unpalatable in my case. I have some large positions in good companies where my basis is almost 0(I have something like 2000 shares of AAPL where I have basis of $0.60 a share). My largest holding was the result of my family selling their business so I’d have depreciation recapture and lose the large guaranteed dividend our preferred shares pay if I was to sell, like 500k of my paper losses come from that holding alone.
My point is tons of Americans have their savings in the market and the “paper losses” just sap confidence and actually will lead to decreased spending.
Thanks lib.
I bookmarked the site so I won’t forget it again.
BRT – Been to Parma and Bologna. Really loads and loads of great tours, cheese, meat even how they make the vinegar.
Our knockoff products here would never pass their taste or laboratory test. Olive oil mixed with other seed oils? That would be considered a fraud and a real crime there.
BRT, the Italians are funny. They don’t obey any rules, traffic laws, tax laws but food is highly regulated and everyone “follows the rules”. Those food rules and standards are the only thing that’s respected over there. I agree with you modernity isn’t king when it comes to food, often the old way is the best way. I can’t imagine lab grown steak will compete in any way shape or form with dry aged prime steak.
It’s like claiming the next great wine will be created in a lab, the nuanced flavors tend to come from natural processes where the lab creations are but a facisimle of the original. I also have serious doubts about financial viability.
I think due to carbon, it’s inevitable for the masses. Plus, over next 20 years, they will get better and better at bio manufacturing. Just think, 20 years ago there was no Iphone and most people were just getting their first cell phones. 20 years ago, they were only starting to unravel the human genome. We are in the early stages of massive change in biotech.
BRT says:
May 11, 2022 at 8:49 am
They can’t give that beyond meat stuff away anymore. Most places have dropped it. Anyone with any experience in food industry. I seriously doubt you are going to ever produce a steak as good as a USDA prime cut in a lab. Anyone with experience with fermentation/baking knows that natural processes always produce a far superior product.
Juice: Europe in general has excellent food. Everything is fresh, and strict EU rules around food/ produce in general. We have traveled all over Europe and have never had a bad meal, except for Britain. Overall, food/ meal prep not good, although it has gotten better from years ago. If you want good food there, you typically have to go to high end restaurants.
Juice, some of our “knock-offs” are quite good others are really, really bad. California olive ranch oil is actually pretty competitive with the best oils produced in Italy, outside of Sicily(arguably the worlds best olive oil) the olive oil from Spain is actually better than most of what is produced in Italy. You also have small producers doing great stuff with cheese and even some bigger players making great product like sartori with their sarvecchio and bellavitano cheeses, knock offs of the Italian pdo cheeses but great cheeses in their own rights or Emmi Roth who is making all kinds of crazy cheese in Wisconsin. The Italian Olive Oil mafia are the ones selling adulterated oil in the US, they slap imported from Italy on the tin and sell it in the supermarket, it’s like 1/3 Tunisian olive oil, 2/3rds #2 diesel fuel oil.
“High growth stocks have been crushed (most are down 60-80% from the highs) and multiples have now become very compressed.
Companies with 30-50%pa revenue growth, high gross margins and long runways are now trading at lower multiples than legacy consumer staples businesses!”
“Today’s CPI print although above consensus is at least now trending in the right direction i.e. lower.
The past few months have been challenging for growth investors but this isn’t the GFC crisis (banks and households aren’t going bankrupt) and it appears as though the multiple compression in the high growth space is largely in the rear-view mirror.
Remember, the markets look ahead – they discount the future and am fairly confident that at this point, most of the known ‘bad news’ is baked in the price.”
“Even though the macro backdrop is nowhere near as bad as the TMT bust or the GFC bust, the market /algos have decimated long duration assets!
In terms of the magnitude of declines, this carnage has been on par with the TMT bust and this one has been a lot quicker!”
“The poster-child of the QE-bubble ($ARKK) has now completed its round trip and sentiment towards the manager is super hostile.
We are now in the anger/capitulation phase of this cycle and these out of favour growth stocks are likely to be way higher 12-18 months from now.”
JCer,
Makes sense. You are going to have to take the tax hit eventually. Planning to wait until you are retired when your income level is lower? Otherwise, start gifting and piecemealing it away.
And yes, sentiment is everything.
No One,
I might agree with you except I am looking through the lens of today. Seigel got his financing then regained his wealth and even more. They bought Hilton Grand Central in 2018. Back to 29 timeshare, he bitched that should have stopped at 14 resorts. Back to finishing Versailles which avoided FC. The scammers got rewarded big time. That is the system. He worked hard too but within a system that will always give him what he wants. That is the wealthy mentality..and they demand cheap lending, cheap labor and tax breaks. It is entitlement at its worst.
3B – Saw that one in the NY Times too. My opinion is it’s really too soon for cover stories about the FED bureaucracy and how nobody could have seen it coming and they did not have any kind of models for inflation. That is all baloney… They wanted inflation for over a decade to cover up for the last mess.
The reason why it’s too early is simple, the recession is here but not yet formally announced and there is a real chance it is only going to over correct and how long it will take and how long it will last are the only questions that need to be answered.
Next up will be stories about how the Fed alone cannot solve high inflation. Given the broader issues. Congress and the White House have the tools at their disposal to mitigate the risk of a LONG recession and they should ACT NOW. Biden is out there now pitching it, inflation is not his fault Bla, Bla Bla…blame Republicans, Trump Tarrifs, the Ukraine War etc etc etc.
Re: European food. My daughter spent a year at the University of Gastronomic Science in the Parma region of Italy to study for a Masters in Food Culture. She basically toured farms, cheese making facilities, food manufacturers and wineries. European food is strictly regulated and requires certification. Look for DOP (Protected designation of origin) or IGP (Indication of geographical protection).
crushed, I don’t presume to know what precipitates any market move nor to speak for others who have responded…but to add to what they said while agreeing….
zoom out a bit…for longer term trends even daily is too small a measure…if you pull out to weeks you’ll see the market topped in the first week of Nov at two standard deviations above trend and then flattened/started rolling over the next six weeks. With the economic and valuation issues noted by others as a backdrop you start to get to a ‘preponderance of evidence’ standard that has served me well.
“36 days Pumpkin-free”
Any bidders out there on Madonna’s NFT collection?
Hopefully this new NFT collection will put the final nail in the NFT coffin for good.
Google it, I won’t link because well it’s that bad and NSFL….
Juice: There were voices out there a year ago and before warning about inflation, and I’m fact before, the last decade has seen the Feds lunacy in action. Instead we get it’s all transitory, it’s not a bubble, it’s demand blah blah. It s a bunch of crap, free money creates bubbles. Fundamentals do t change. As far as over correcting, that depends on how one defines over correcting. The excess has to be cleaned out and to accomplish that you need higher rates, much higher. That will cause an over correction perhaps but I believe it’s unavoidable. The insanity went on far too long.
They’ve been trying for 4 decades to farm white truffles. A big one can sell for 100,000 Euros. They still haven’t even come close to being able to. Trying to recreate it in the lab, most likely, impossible.
JCer, the best channel on Italian food in Italy is: https://www.youtube.com/c/italiasquisita
It’s subtitled so you can understand everything they say, my god, watching that will improve your cooking technique by orders of magnitude. The amount of care and precision is incredible.
California olive oil (not just California Olive Ranch) is actually a great product. Most of the regular olive oil I use is various california brands. I have a few expensive bottles from Italy for special things. I also like to go to the middle eastern markets as they have some hidden gems. I’ve picked up great ones from Greece as well.
If you look at the meat in Italy, you can see it’s far superior to ours. They still use heritage breeds that weren’t bred for maximum production. If you’ve ever had a Berkshire Pork Chop, you understand the difference between that an an economy breed Pork Chop. The animal’s diet, the breed, all of this matters. You can’t replicate this in the lab.
There’s a farm by me, Cherry Grove. They make their own cheese from their cattle. They feed their pigs the leftover whey. Their pork is so unique and amazing. It’s as if it’s a different animal.
Okay, so the anti-fed haters were finally right about inflation. These same individuals were screaming that inflation was coming from 2010-2016. Wrong every f/ing year. They also kept calling for stagflation and crashing of the economy every year. So why should have anyone listened to these individuals when they were crying about inflation again last year?
Sad part, they were crying about inflation coming due the FED. So they were right about inflation, but wrong about why it happened. It happened for one reason….businesses cut off production in anticipation of less demand due to lock downs. They totally f/ed the entire supply chain to the point you have shipping boats sitting off the coast with no way to unload. That’s how bad these businesses messed it up. Unheard of.
Then you had human nature go to work. You had businesses not impacted by supply chain now making claims that the supply chain is messed up and they have to raise prices. Now you have 100% of businesses raising f/ing prices because they could.
Now do you understand how we got here and why it really is “transitory.” This is not sustainable and it’s already dropping.
Blame the FED all you want, but they can’t create this type of inflation….only businesses can. How long did the FED try to spur inflation with no results? Ask the Japanese central bank how it worked out for them. So for the love of god, stop blaming it on the FED.
3b says:
May 11, 2022 at 11:23 am
Juice: There were voices out there a year ago and before warning about inflation, and I’m fact before, the last decade has seen the Feds lunacy in action. Instead we get it’s all transitory, it’s not a bubble, it’s demand blah blah. It s a bunch of crap, free money creates bubbles. Fundamentals do t change. As far as over correcting, that depends on how one defines over correcting. The excess has to be cleaned out and to accomplish that you need higher rates, much higher. That will cause an over correction perhaps but I believe it’s unavoidable. The insanity went on far too long.
“I can’t imagine lab grown steak will compete in any way shape or form with dry aged prime steak…I also have serious doubts about financial viability.”
Good points.
Another issue to add to the pile when evaluating DNA which I haven’t focused on in the past but relevant to today’s conversation is adverse selection…the value in drug discovery/bioengineering lies in the proprietary and patented technologies and discoveries. DNA’s business plan requires them to participate in equity tails in these discoveries from their customers.
Problem is this…the entities most likely to have those technologies don’t need to and won’t give meaningful equity participation to entities like DNA…Big cap pharma and companies like Monsanto may use companies like DNA for some outsource work but DNA will never come close to obtaining equity tails on their products because these types of customers simply don’t have to offer them as they have the discovery capabilities, ability to manufacture in scale, and better financial wherewithal than DNA.
DNA is then left with a business plan dependent on tails, but through adverse selection they end up with tails that are the worst among the bunch…anyone with good technologies has or can find cheaper sources of capital than partnering out the crown jewels to DNA.
Google Affymetrix (and it’s peer companies at the time like Sequenom, etc).
Same deal two decades ago but in drug discovery. AFFY’s product was actually called the ‘GeneChip’ because it combined genomics with semiconductor technology (sound eerily similar to DNA’s business plan, lol?). They were to revolutionize drug discovery from chemistry to targeted genomics and make a ton of money not being the provider of the enabling technology they developed (Genechip) but by taking equity tails in all these great products derived from their product. They did get a few, but those were leftovers.
Long story short, AFFY was acquired in a takeunder M&A ten years later by a major bio supply company for a pittance ($1B total).
I’ve seen this DNA show before, from the front row.
At today’s valuation will DNA have a decent pop sometime, somewhere? Of course. It has some merits and it is flush with cash. So it is definitely the best of the worst among these spec-SPAC stocks. I invest and trade though, I don’t do the lottery.
3b,
True but someone said it and I believe this to be 100% true. They are raising rates to 2.25% now so they can slash it back to 0% in 2023. The jig is up. It is all they can do and it won’t have same impact. Does not mean they won’t try.
This is the best part of DNA. Like I said, they will be the middle man….the app store for bio manufacturing. They get paid off royalties. It’s a win/win for DNA and whoever works with them. DNA already has the facilities to get to work immediately, while said partner doesn’t have to do the tough leg work to put this all together…DNA already has it done for them.
Like I said, DNA has so many potential avenues for future revenue. The potential is enormous for those that can see it.
“Another issue to add to the pile when evaluating DNA which I haven’t focused on in the past but relevant to today’s conversation is adverse selection…the value in drug discovery/bioengineering lies in the proprietary and patented technologies and discoveries. DNA’s business plan requires them to participate in equity tails in these discoveries from their customer”
BRT,
My impression was that pork chops were ruined in the late 80s, 90s when the government made everyone obsessed about cutting fat, and then the industry tried to pitch pork as “the other white meat” low in fat like the chicken breasts bred to be tasteless low-fat meat.
My grandmother in the 70s made some great juicy pork chops with fat around the edges, now grocery stores won’t even sell pork chops cut that way.
Having married into a Chinese family, I see they mix pork belly into their ground pork to make it fatter, and they avoid chicken breasts for cooking (only really good for bang-bang chicken where you can add fat back via the sesame/chili-oil based dressing).
Bystander: I believe it’s goi g to have to be 3 to 3.25 percent. The Fed has to clean up the mess they made, by their reckless monetary activities. It’s been brewing for a decade. If it gets really ugly as opposed to just ugly, do they ease massively and start the madness all over again, that remains to be seen, but I am skeptical. We need to return to functional rational ( all things considered) markets, not markets that are driven by reckless monetary policies, where dim wit investors thought there is no risk as the Fed will save us.
36 days comment free!!!
The amount of partnerships developed by DNA in the past year is simply amazing. Bayer was huge. Provides so much money to fuel DNA over the next couple of years.
Holy christ. Show me out of control inflation over the last decade. Please. It all developed after the lock down. You think the FED would have supported the economy like they did if they knew the supply chains would be ground to a halt? Wake up. Seriously. Enough with the FED blame game. The FED did not create this runaway inflation, mistakes by business leaders did.
3b says:
May 11, 2022 at 11:49 am
Bystander: I believe it’s goi g to have to be 3 to 3.25 percent. The Fed has to clean up the mess they made, by their reckless monetary activities. It’s been brewing for a decade. If it gets really ugly as opposed to just ugly, do they ease massively and start the madness all over again, that remains to be seen, but I am skeptical. We need to return to functional rational ( all things considered) markets, not markets that are driven by reckless monetary policies, where dim wit investors thought there is no risk as the Fed will save us.
For the homegrown foodies, it’s not DOP but….
https://www.mensjournal.com/food-drink/worlds-greatest-ham-caseiro-e-bom/
“The insanity went on far too long.”
You think? I honestly made 65% across the board in 2000 and 30% across the board in 2021. This is in a vehicle that historically returns 8% per year. Yes 8%! So if we overshoot by a lot (me thinking we might not even be halfway done), we are really not overshooting at all.
Thanks all.
A relative is providing me with a small gift of stock, she uses fidelity. It’s a pittance but I am still grateful. To help offset my car issues.
I will join fidelity, but will open a Roth in TD. Best of both worlds. Will keep my mind occupied, too much stress lately. And if if converts later to Schwab that works.
Have a safe and profitable day all.
Personal thanks to Lib, LW, Crushed and Nomad.
I have to be honest, I haven’t even checked my paycheck in 4 years.
When you hemorrhage by the thousands you don’t even want to look.
I’ve been in a stall for so long that if I don’t pull up soon I’m just going to crash. The ground just keeps getting closer.
Help appreciated.
Phoenix,
You still haven’t bought a car?
Lib: That is my point exactly; as always you get it and your responses are succinct and too the point. Rather than my long winded comments.
BRT, I’ve been watching that channel on YouTube for years, I love the segments where Italian chefs watch popular American tv cooks making Italian dishes.
I agree 100% that the breed, what they are fed and where they live make a big difference in the end product. In Italy while the pork products are very good, the beef leaves a lot to be desired in most places not named Tuscany. Italy simply does not have the grazing land and it’s grasses are not ideal to raise quality beef also imho corn fattened beef tastes so much more dastardly than the natural stuff.
3b,
Who has the time to read what they already know. If you’ve been reading this blog, you don’t need the details.
JCer,
The beef in Costa Rica tastes great, but is extremely chewy. Just not enough fat on their skinny free range cows. All cattle is raised free range there and cows are everywhere you look. Often you will find them being ushered untethered by vaqueros right down the shoulder of the road.
Lib: Agreed!
Liz Spect is VP of Science & Technology @GoodFoodInst
She did a lot of tweeting early on in the pandemic but now, much more food / protein based stuff in her twitter.
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Here is one of her recent retweets:
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-aquaculture-wild-fisheries.html
Isn’t part of the issue that population growth is such that industrial farms trying to keep up = massive amounts of animal waste/pollution among other things.
My Irish cousin came to America for two years and said our meat and dairy are absolutely disgusting and inedible. This from the society of least evolved palate on the planet..but they know good core farm products. Being in Ireland many times, it is 100% true. We don’t give a f* what gets produced.
At least ARKK didn’t make another 52 week low today…..
3B,
Again, like in the old days, it took half a day for the market to digest the inflation news. It sort of feels like the 90s, but with the 70s violence.
It is built into the regs that you cannot use performance based fees. This structure must be built for accredited investors only. You can’t be a fiduciary if you are being paid to shoot the lights out. Also, once you are down, you have the incentive to swing for the fences. If you handed someone $100K, and on 5/11 they are down 30%, do you want a fiduciary of someone who would take a 25% to double $70K and 75% flatline completely?
Libturd says:
May 11, 2022 at 10:05 am
He is someone Wall Street should be making a hero out of. Though, his ETF only pays him well if it performs well. It has a unique manager pay structure that Wall Street would never accept. They like to get paid both when they make and lose your money.
Lib,
Yeah, did get my new car. Just took a month. Seems okay. My sis offered to help me a bit with it, having to pay over sticker sucks, but you don’t have much of a choice when your last car throws a rod and leaves 5 quarts of oil on the roadway.
Luckily I had an old beater from the divorce that held me over a month till the new one got here. My job frowns when you don’t show up.
If there was no supply chain bottleneck, would we have inflation? I ask this simple question.
Sure, the huge stimulus package played a role in helping to maintain demand in the consumer, but at the same time, if they didn’t push that stimulus package our economy would have been in a depression (a deflationary spiral as oil was below zero).
So please explain to me how the supply chain is not the source of the current inflation we are experiencing. How would used cars (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) become so expensive without supply chain bottlenecks?
Lib: Excellent description of the current environment.
Hey joyce,
I had to post this one. People think I make this shit up. This is recruiting in America. I call it the Michael Page to Carrottop correlation. The shittier the rate, the silly recruiters get with trying to sound hip and funny. This was for Bank of America job, in NYC office, no WFH.
Knowledge & Experience:
Excellent verbal, written and interpersonal communication skills to effectively interface with different levels of employees, professional contacts and vendors.
Microsoft Project is a must.
Jira experience would be helpful.
Experience with Software Development projects is needed.
Azure Dev Ops experience is helpful.
3 years minimum experience managing projects; 5 years preferred.
*Knowledge for the game of football preferred*
$60/hr on W2.
The trigger was Biden’s backroom deal with Powell to reappoint him as Fed Chair.
Lael Brainard was used as a negotiating ploy. Powell has been pushing ever since. At the end of the day, follow The Ten. We closed at 134 on 12/10/21
crushednjmillenial says:
May 11, 2022 at 8:50 am
I understand that all the high-growth, no earnings companies were dramatically overvalued – but this has been true for a long time. I understand that the Fed is raising rates. But, I’m having a hard time grasping how quickly the market fell WITHOUT A PARTICULAR TRIGGER. That is, go back to January 4. I don’t think much changed on Jan. 5, but that was the first day after the peak. I suppose the same thing happened in 2000 – there was not really a particular trigger. In 2008, I’d need to look at a chart, but I thought big bank news preceded the declines.
Four months ago – “best time to be an employee in history – change jobs and collect big raise”
Today – “some layoffs are here and you can see the flashes of lightning from the layoff storm clouds in the distance”
Old bubble…now the new bubble.
“Zoom now has a bigger market cap than Exxon.” 9/23/20
“Update: Exxon now has a market cap 13x the size of Zoom’s.” 5/11/22
Exxon and other oil firms are old tech. Dying.
Zoom is a key element in a new paradigm.
Wall Street rewards innovation.
Be careful. You may not be able to open a Roth unless you backdoor it. For single, income limit is $144,000 AGI.
Phoenix says:
May 11, 2022 at 12:12 pm
I will join fidelity, but will open a Roth in TD. Best of both worlds. Will keep my mind occupied, too much stress lately. And if if converts later to Schwab that works.
crushed,
most of the high growth stuff actually declined before rates ever did anything and before the fed took any actions. Some of it was near complete mean reversion before December.
Ex: were you the guy with the pencil mustache in 1983?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNKIba_yZJo
Ex says:
May 11, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Exxon and other oil firms are old tech. Dying.
Zoom is a key element in a new paradigm.
Wall Street rewards innovation.
No One,
it’s 100% accurate. In Pat La Frieda’s book, he did a page on a guy who was doing heritage breeds of pork and there was huge demand from the restaurants. Problem was, when he was trying to deliver to the city, the parking tickets he took on were exceeding his revenue. La Frieda told him to partner with him, La Frieda handles the delivery. If you watched their show long ago on food network, La Frieda was paying close to $150k in parking tickets in NYC every year, just to deliver meat. It got so bad that they moved over to NJ because they were getting ticketed at their own business location.
left: it looks like another liquidation is happening….. same action, broad selling, but select names are just getting killed……
SHOP and ROKU now 85% off the highs. Not much meat on the bone anymore. Might be good for a bounce.
Bystander: Your Irish Cousins were right. The bread too is so much better, when we were kids and over there, it was what we survived on as the food was pretty bad. Developing any kind of cuisine was not a priority considering with the so called famine it was just trying to survive. They have come along way food wise now, and have developed some great cuisine including fusion dishes of native/ traditional dishes and other combinations. When we were last there in 2019, we did not have one bad meal. Some of the best were in local pubs.
ChiFi just caught the GoGo’s at the “Crypto” center
Surprised how short they all were.
3b,
The brown bread..man that is good stuff. The milk, butter and ice cream are phenomenal. Meat quality if great but cook it to death if not careful. The restaurant selection has gotten much better over 20 years. I still don’t get corn on pizza. My cousin actually missed hometown food. That says something.
Yes, it’s funny to watch them tear apart the American chefs. What I find amazing is how much the Italian Americans clearly lost their discipline with respect to the old country. I mean, I still like it and all, but it’s just not the same. There’s a great chef/owner by me from Sicily. The restaurant is Vidalia in Lawrence. He’s got the magic touch.
Bystander: Agree, they have gotten away from overcooking meat, as well as boiling everything. Restaurant selection is excellent now, and as I noted even the pub is great. No more ham sandwich with 2 slices of meat, and three layers of bread, and maybe an occasional soup. Some of the best ribs I have ever had were in a small pub in Killarney. Not a fan of mayonnaise on French fries or crisps as they call them.
Ham is great. My aunts would make a dozen sandwiches for 3 of us, pre-dinner Bread, meat, Chef sauce..hah.
WSJ Editorial …… brutal and hilarious….
President Biden on Tuesday tried to get ahead of Wednesday’s April inflation report with a speech rehashing his well-worn proposals to reduce prices: Boost subsidies, raise taxes, and increase regulation. He should take Jerry Seinfeld’s advice to George Costanza and do the opposite of his every policy instinct.
The President again called on Congress to pass his Build Back Better, er, sorry, “Building a Better America” plan including more subsidies for green energy, electric cars, child care, housing and more. He also doubled down on his proposed billionaire’s tax—i.e., unconstitutional wealth tax—and Medicare drug price controls.
***
Mr. Biden again blamed inflation on the pandemic and Vladimir Putin, omitting that Democrats poured kerosene on the accelerating economic recovery last March with their $1.9 trillion spending bill. Inflation was already at 7.9% when Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine (see the nearby chart). At the same time, their policies are hampering the supply side of the economy in myriad and interconnecting ways.
Consider energy and food. The Administration’s war on oil and gas created enormous regulatory uncertainty that is stanching investment in new production despite high energy prices. Producers can’t find workers. Many left the industry when prices nose-dived early in the pandemic and are reluctant to return because Democrats have promised to put drillers out of business.
Then there’s the left’s blockade on pipelines, which is limiting natural gas production in the Northeast’s rich shale deposits. Progressives blame rising gas prices on natural gas exports, but the larger culprit is increasing demand in the U.S. Hefty subsidies for wind and solar forced coal and nuclear plants to close down, but renewable power needs to be backed up by more gas.
Mr. Biden says more green energy will reduce electricity prices. But then why have power prices increased by 11.1% in the last year? More green energy will make the grid less reliable and increase demand for gas along with diesel-powered emergency generators, as it has in California and Texas.
Speaking of which, diesel prices have increased by $2.40 a gallon in the last year, a buck more than gasoline prices, amid increased demand from freight and reduced refining capacity. Higher diesel prices filter through to food prices as ships, trains, trucks, tractors and other farm equipment rely on the fuel.
Biofuel mandates and subsidies have spurred refineries to shut down or shift to producing smaller amounts of “renewable” diesel from cooking oils. This is also a large reason soybean oil prices have more than doubled from pre-pandemic levels and why the American Bakers Association has urged the Administration to ease renewable fuel mandates.
Poultry producers say the ethanol mandate is driving up the cost of their feedstock. At the same time, surging corn and soy prices are discouraging farmers from planting wheat to compensate for lost exports from Ukraine. Yet the Administration wants to increase renewable fuel mandates and subsidies.
What the country needs is more investment to boost the supply side of the economy, which will increase worker productivity, real wages and living standards. Mr. Biden’s plan to hammer businesses and investors with increased taxes and regulation will do the opposite.
In his speech he again lobbied for Medicare to negotiate drug prices—i.e., price caps—but this will create more pharmaceutical market distortions and suppress investment in innovation. By the way, prescription drug prices have risen a mere 2.2% in the last year. Thank competition for that, not government.
***
As White House aides whispered to friendly media on Monday, Mr. Biden’s Tuesday speech was really less about inflation and more about setting up the fall campaign against Republicans. He claimed the GOP has no plan for inflation, as if Democrats don’t run Congress and the White House. He linked all Republicans to Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s unspecific proposal that all Americans should pay some federal income tax and all Congressional legislation should sunset after five years.
“The congressional Republican agenda,” Mr. Biden warned, would “put Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid on the chopping block every five years.” Who believes this? Mr. Scott’s plan hasn’t been endorsed by the rest of his party.
Mr. Biden said Republicans want to “depress” American wages, but real disposable personal income increased $4,205 (in 2012 dollars) from January 2017 to December 2020 yet has since declined by $374, almost all on his watch. Inflation is causing real wages to decline despite rising nominal wages.
Americans have learned the hard way over the last two years that no amount of federal transfer payments can make up for the decline in real wages caused by inflation. President Costanza still hasn’t.
Bystander: The ham is great! Just skimpy on the meat in a sandwich. Love the traditional breakfast, though it’s not healthy.
Political hit piece. Can’t they leave politics out of it for one second. Instead opinion pieces revolve their opinion around team political talking points.
chicagofinance says:
May 11, 2022 at 3:12 pm
Again, I ask the same simple question. No need to complicate it with bs. Let’s keep it simple.
If there was no supply chain bottleneck, would we have inflation? I ask this simple question.
Sure, the huge stimulus package played a role in helping to maintain demand in the consumer, but at the same time, if they didn’t push that stimulus package our economy would have been in a depression (a deflationary spiral as oil was below zero).
So please explain to me how the supply chain is not the source of the current inflation we are experiencing. How would used cars (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) become so expensive without supply chain bottlenecks?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-surges-to-14-year-high-as-homebuyers-try-to-afford-this-pricey-spring-market.html
Look at this chit. Gas went up for one reason, the opec cartel got control of the supply of oil again and are doing their damn best to suck out whatever extra money they can by holding down supply. Such f/ing bs what is being blamed below. Pure political bs.
“Speaking of which, diesel prices have increased by $2.40 a gallon in the last year, a buck more than gasoline prices, amid increased demand from freight and reduced refining capacity. Higher diesel prices filter through to food prices as ships, trains, trucks, tractors and other farm equipment rely on the fuel.
Biofuel mandates and subsidies have spurred refineries to shut down or shift to producing smaller amounts of “renewable” diesel from cooking oils. This is also a large reason soybean oil prices have more than doubled from pre-pandemic levels and why the American Bakers Association has urged the Administration to ease renewable fuel mandates.
Poultry producers say the ethanol mandate is driving up the cost of their feedstock. At the same time, surging corn and soy prices are discouraging farmers from planting wheat to compensate for lost exports from Ukraine. Yet the Administration wants to increase renewable fuel mandates and subsidies.”
ARKK TDOC analyst coming up on shortly to defend long call for anyone looking for a comedy routine….
Oh, and for those keeping score at home COIN, which is $391m and 5% of ARKK, reported earnings last night….
Down $20, or 27%, to new all time low…
Just can’t make this shit up. She is the destructor, Gozer.
When oil was below zero and all energy stocks crashed….why didn’t you say the same thing? That was only 2 years ago. Never heard a bleep of criticism on this blog about it. Yet, arkk and high growth are going through the same thing that oil/energy sector went through, and you blast them.
leftwing says:
May 11, 2022 at 3:31 pm
ARKK TDOC analyst coming up on shortly to defend long call for anyone looking for a comedy routine….
Oh, and for those keeping score at home COIN, which is $391m and 5% of ARKK, reported earnings last night….
Down $20, or 27%, to new all time low…
Just can’t make this shit up. She is the destructor, Gozer.
She is all marketing. Always was. The religious naming of her fund alone should have been a giveaway. Not that I am against religion. But god belongs on Wall Street just about as much as god belongs in our government. It takes real chutzpah to try and sucker unknowledgeable fools to invest her funds as if it was a godly.
Chi,
Again, appreciate your explanation as to why advisors are not paid on a sliding scale, which I already knew, but did not clarify. I should have I guess. No deceit meant of course.
“Innovative Fulcrum Fee Structure – In a first for the ETF industry, the Portfolio Strategist of CWS has “skin in the game.” The Strategist’s compensation is directly tied to portfolio’s performance. Stronger outperformance is rewarded with a larger management fee while weak or underperformance is penalized with a smaller management fee.”
“SHOP and ROKU now 85% off the highs. Not much meat on the bone anymore. Might be good for a bounce.”
As I’ve said before ROKU for long term pricing purposes needs to justify why it even exists….its suppliers would prefer to supplant them, its customers would prefer to supplant them, and all they are is a connection between the two taking a toll. Not sustainable.
TDOC analyst was bragging on CNBC about how TDOC ‘took the Northwell business’ from a competitor…
So 90 seconds of diligence on google reveals it is for connecting clinicians with their patients, ie. the ‘classic’ telehealth that has been around for decades that even this analyst says to ignore. But wait….
The announcement also notes that Northwell won’t be using TDOC’s clinicians, they will be using their own, and the communication will be through Teams.
So TDOC’s large announcement is that they are an ancillary plug-in app to Microsoft Teams for connecting two third parties….
Kind of like extensions you get for free on google….which of course is worth a $5B market value…
I don’t blame the ARKK analyst though…he’s just three years out of college (JFC, you just can’t make this stuff up….)
lol, you want us to criticize a commodity based on it’s price level when they literally shut down commerce in the entire world?
They posted ARK’s biggest losses today
U -37%
Coinbase -26%
Berkeley Lights -21%
Beam Therapeutics -16.7%
Block….I mean Sqaure -15%
When is the victory lap allowed?
In an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance today Bill Dudley former Fed Res Pres NY, said the Fed needs to stop “ sugarcoating “ it’s message on how high interest rates need to go and how much pain that will cause to get inflation under control.
He goes on further to say he believes 4 to 5 percent or higher, whereas 6 months ago he was 3 to 4 percent. Also said he would not be shocked if 6 months from now he is at 5 to 6 percent. He is an incredibly smart guy, I remember they well from my GS days. I would pay attention to what he says.
In other news refinancings are down 15 percent from last quarter. I would have thought everyone with a mortgage would have refinanced by now.
I’m officially done shorting ARK stocks. All that remains of that pile of garbage is Tesla. That last leg down was quick as hell.
Interesting anomaly….Stocks down, SPY down 1.6%, yet VIX is also down…..usually doesn’t work that way….
Moreover, VIX futures also down and down in a way that is flattening that curve, bringing it back towards ‘normal’ (contango).
No advice, but as a ST signal would appear the vol market is saying the sell off may be a little overdone.
It’s worth noting, BLI, a small cap that ARKK held, her average cost was $48. ARK owns 8% of the company. It’s down to $3.76. All those small caps she drove up, this is what they will look like. 97% down from the peak. This didn’t even involve for the outflow scenario.
https://cathiesark.com/arkk/complete-holdings
Lol, coinbase co-mingled customer crypto investments and potentially lost them?
Companies just using this as an opportunity to dump bad news they’ve been sitting on, in hopes nobody cares?
Let number of material business disclosures and layoffs feels too high to be coincidental and perfectly timed.
Talk of layoffs at Facebook apparently.
Doge is now 8 cents. Poor poor Elon.
Grim, as an unregistered entity I don’t believe there ever was a separation of customer assets at COIN…kind of like all these ETNs running around….you don’t own any of the underlying assets, hell, often times neither do they, they just enter into swaps with major houses for the delta off the notional…
Interesting reaction, since if news reports are correct they didn’t actually lose anyone money…it appears people just realized the above by way of filing their 10Q with the SEC.
Says a lot about the sophistication and diligence of their investor base that they could be caught offsides on such a basic piece of diligence…..
Facebook lays off. META is the “future” there.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/seattle-ceo-dan-price-charged-assault/281-1562d908-2154-4be3-b7a5-f0f4ec48823e?fbclid=IwAR0Mj7fhNCCtKnQRCekQlYc2gALvI5WX4nHhxwq7-UddvKQdaxNRCeobnP4
Lol the point of the post flew right over your head.
What do you think is happening to high growth right now? Rates going up destroying high growth. Yet, you sit here and make excuses for energy market when it got destroyed for chit out of their control. The hypocrisy…you proved the point of my post perfectly.
BRT says:
May 11, 2022 at 4:24 pm
lol, you want us to criticize a commodity based on it’s price level when they literally shut down commerce in the entire world?
Right. That’s why she beat the living sh!t out of the rest of the market for 6 years. Not her fault they f’ed up the supply chain forcing the FED to raise rates and create a bear market.
What you and all the critics don’t get…she doesn’t care that the price went down. She knows how volatile it is. She knows her strategy. She doesn’t care because she knows on a long-timescale she is picking what she believes are long-term growing companies. So in her mind, this is a fire sale. Aka deep value.
You and others are not like her. You don’t think like her about the market. She doesn’t focus on the now, she is focused down the line. Instead of understanding this, people bash her because it is down now.
Same people bash bitcoin every time it goes down, and then miss the train ride back up. Over and over.
Libturd says:
May 11, 2022 at 3:57 pm
She is all marketing. Always was
It’s like people think a woman who has been around markets her entire life is a complete idiot. She is highly intelligent. She knows her chit.
re: Coinbase
Yup just another nail in the crypto coffin, if it is not your wallet then it’s not your coin. Here is a nice IOU instead. I gather their tall tales that crypto currency is some kind durable quantum indeterminacy actually really means you will be a bag holder soon enough. You know you should hold it forever because well the price only goes up and nobody can sieze it or regulate it etc nothing to worry about it’s yours until well Poof and it’s gone.!!
South Park Classic….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
Pumps – Do you even know who Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital is? Guy lost 20 billion last year. He was the one in a wall st prayer group with Cathy and seeded ARKs etfs to get them off the ground.
Bill Hwang was just charged two weeks ago for fraud and racketeering. Are you certain Cathy is a genius or perhaps she is just anther vehicle for the fraudsters to pump and dump out there?
BTW Pumps.
Wishful thinking on your part claiming supply chain issues is solely the cause of inflation. By this summer we will know for sure, there won’t be any supply chain issues but the inflation will remain.
Ever hear the saying too much money chasing few goods?
240 years of history and we added nearly 7 Trillion to the money supply in the last two years, that is something like 45% more money printed into existence.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
Stock market has been the focus of late but again I will point out what about the bond markets? Treasury bonds, corporate debt, state & municipal bonds, and money markets. All combined way much larger than the stock market.
How are they going to continue raisings rates without trashing the bond markets further?
Here is an ETF to watch. TLT add it to your list…If it continues to move lower we are all fucked. Stocks and Bonds both dive? You can thank the Fed for that.
Go look at the news on it, and what it represents.
Least it’ll be cheap to ship shit from China again
Grim – Cheap freight again?
No way no how, prices are going to stay high forever. A new floor……
No need to whine boy:
https://youtu.be/nKxTQgwnzKg
Yes, shutting down production will create that. That’s how the supply chains got overwhelmed in the first place.
Keep in mind, that expansion of the monetary supply was correlating with economic expansion. As the economy grows, it needs more capital.
Listen, quantitive easing and quantitative tightening are legit processes. They are not printing money. The only money being printed was the stimulus spending by the govt (trump and biden). That spending was needed to supplement all the people at home not working. If you didn’t add that stimulus, economy would have hit a deflationary spiral.
“Ever hear the saying too much money chasing few goods?”
actually it went over your head. Because there’s no reason to criticize a well run company on severe price swings. Home Depot is a great company, went from 450 to 280 because of the cycle/environment. It is however, fair game to criticize stupid fund managers that feed their client kool aid and tell them it’s a great time to buy all along an 80% drop in prices.
Think about it at a simple level.
If you shut down production on a tight as can be supply chain(no room for errors), you are literally taking the amount of goods off the market. Now you have a scenario of money chasing fewer goods…aka hot inflation.
Japan has never inflation like this, despite pumping since the 90s. Why?
Jesus, this ARKK analyst today looks like he’s 24 and sounds like he’s suffering from ulcers inside and is ready to just throw in the towel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=18&v=YaqqPanoVc8&feature=emb_logo
this is how he sounds when he’s not thinking about how his career is about to go into the toilet. Much different person 1 year ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCVvGqOjelE
Discipline. If you hold to said strategy, it will work in the long run. Her strategy is long-term based. This is deep value territory. Cry about it, laugh about it, or take advantage. This is no different than buying oil when it was going below zero. You might think so, but it’s not.
If she abandoned strategy and became a value investor because the market turned on her, then she would be a fraud. Abandoning her position/strategy when she is supposed to have nerves of steel. This is when you are supposed to be buying on said strategy. This is how you get the huge returns.
BRT says:
May 11, 2022 at 8:59 pm
actually it went over your head. Because there’s no reason to criticize a well run company on severe price swings. Home Depot is a great company, went from 450 to 280 because of the cycle/environment. It is however, fair game to criticize stupid fund managers that feed their client kool aid and tell them it’s a great time to buy all along an 80% drop in prices.
Chi,
Thanks for the heads up. Way short of that threshold. Unless I travel in my career…
LGR!!
How much did you buy today? Nothing? Thought so
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 11, 2022 at 9:09 pm
This is deep value territory. Cry about it, laugh about it, or take advantage.
How was I supposed to know?
https://www.readtangle.com/does-the-debt-matter-noah-smith-brian-riedl/
Yeah, I’m pretty sure I linked to this last year and told everyone if there was one posted article ever here to read, this was the one.
I’ll look for it.
Yup.
Libturd says:
April 12, 2021 at 1:05 pm
Fantastic read on debt expansion over at Tangle. This was meant to only be for the paid subscribers (like me). But, was so popular on Friday that Saul has opened it up to the public. If you want to try to make the argument between austerity and printing till the cows come home, everything you need to know to make that decision is there. Even I learned a thing or two, and I have an economics minor. Enjoy.
https://www.readtangle.com/p/does-the-debt-matter-noah-smith-brian-riedl
In order to get huge returns, she needs to first break even by quadrupling her current valuation.
Lib, I’m buying 75 bagels tomorrow for my AP kids. I’d say it’s coming out of my own pocket, but it’s on Michael Saylor.
Pumps; re: They are not printing money.
Pumps.. really now? Take a look at this man and his facial expression as he mouths these words “We print it digitally”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK_rYS8L3kI
Like many people the coming wave is going to sweep them out…….
BRT: re: Bagels…
I was an AP student too, made a world of difference for me…I have a whole gaggle of teachers in the family and appreciate you sharing what you do for the children etc. I see it every day with my children. I make it a point to thank those teachers….So Thanks!!
LIb- re: “Fantastic read”
Sure is…
It’s like many other arguments, but it leads to what I have mentioned if BOTH the stock and bond markets decline as a percentage like other recessions?
Anyone here think RECESSION is not here?
Park it where>??