No national price decline?

From Yahoo Finance:

Housing Prices Are Expected to Drop in These Cities — Is Yours One of Them?

Housing prices could drop by as much as 10% in many U.S. cities, per Fortune, referencing a new report from Moody’s Analytics. However, the dip won’t represent a national home price correction, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi.

Rather, per Zandi, within the next 12 months, home price growth will reach zero year-over-year. Some of the most overpriced housing markets will experience declines, he predicts.

Zandi attributes the cooling market to rapidly rising mortgage rates in an already-overvalued market. He doesn’t consider the current prices to represent a housing bubble, because the market overvaluation isn’t accompanied by speculation, he told Fortune. However, he noted that he sees some “speculation creeping in” to markets like Phoenix and Charlotte, which are overvalued by 46% and 33%, Fortune reports.

When a housing market is overvalued, it means home prices are higher than expected compared to average local incomes. Moody’s research showed that 96% of the 392 metropolitan area markets considered are “overvalued,” with 149 overvalued by at least 25%.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

237 Responses to No national price decline?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    First

  2. Trick says:

    Currently we do not have a house on the market around our neighborhood. 6-7 were listed and off the marked quickly. Prices have seemed to stabilized in the high 5 to low 6 figures.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    It seems that the NY/NJ/CT metro area is rarely mentioned as a speculative region. We are forever prestigious and haughty in this section for the country.

    I do see that the Nashville area is on that list for predicted price drops of 5% to 10%. I mention it because this is the #1 area I would consider moving to in retirement. I also mention it because at a wedding this weekend, yet another family relative has moved there for work with his fiancé and they said they LOVE the area and will have their wedding there. So, sometime in the next year, I’m visiting Nashville.

    But back to our area, two more houses that were posted for sale in my neighborhood have the “under contract” sign on them. Blink and they’re gone.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Went food shopping, things are getting expensive. Chicken cost what steak used too. CPI for Food was up 9.4% in April. However we have not seen anything yet. PPI is double the CPI..

    From Bloomberg..

    “But many food costs measured in the PPI have been accelerating faster than the CPI rate. In April, average wholesale food prices in the index jumped 18% from a year earlier, according to government data released May 12. It was the largest 12-month increase in nearly five decades. Eggs surged 220%, butter jumped 51%, fats and oils were up 41%, and flour 40%, the National Restaurant Association said.

    The data suggest that pent-up inflation in the production and distribution pipeline will continue to filter through to consumer prices.

    “Businesses will do as much as they can to squeeze margins and not pass along higher costs from producers if they see chances that prices will soon reverse,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for financial services group StoneX. “However, they will eventually need to pass those price hikes along.”

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    My car calls for super unleaded. I could probably run on less, feel free to chime in you car experts. It’s a BMW, 330i turbo. Anyway, got $30 worth of the super stuff yesterday… quarter of a tank. Ugh. FJB.

  6. Juice Box says:

    Dangerous old codger.

    President Joe Biden said the US military would intervene to defend Taiwan in any attack from China…

  7. grim says:

    Most modern cars will run just fine on regular fuel. It may take a little time for the computer to retard timing and boost to compensate so you aren’t detonating (pinging).

    The reason they don’t recommend it isn’t because it won’t work, it’s because performance is going to be reduced. If you are doing wide open throttle pulls on every highway on-ramp, don’t bother using regular. If you drive conservatively, and with the car pretty much empty, it ain’t going to hurt.

    This is especially true on low compression turbo motors. Stay off full boost and the likelihood of detonation is pretty small.

  8. Grim says:

    Uninspired tiny bedroom split listed at 600, under contract.

    Keep it goin.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    Thanks for the petrol info, Grim.

  10. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    Ouch. I paid $4.33 a gallon for regular yesterday. I think the supreme was $4.89.

    I’m pretty sure we will be getting a Hyundai Santa Fe sometime between October and March. Either a hybrid (39 mpg) or a plug in hybrid (roughly 80 mpg but not currently available in Texas). Plug in is $10k more but has a $7,500 tax credit and the savings on gas would pay for the additional $2,500 cost in 3-4 years if gas stays above $4 a gallon.

    The Kia EV 6 looks much cooler than a Tesla and gets the equivalent of 100 mpg on the highway and 136 mpg in city. With a 300+ mile range. I’m concerned about recharging it though and it being the first generation for that type of car. If the power goes out I will be sitting in the dark with no way to recharge the car. Don’t have 60k or whatever it would cost to get a Tesla roof. Plus cold weather saps its range.

  11. Phoenix says:

    Went food shopping, things are getting expensive. Chicken cost what steak used too.

    Ouch. I paid $4.33 a gallon for regular yesterday. I think the supreme was $4.89.

    Freedom isn’t free.

  12. Phoenix says:

    Dangerous old codger.

    Well, what’s he go to lose? 5-10 more years? Probably not going to remember them anyway.

  13. Phoenix says:

    Plug in is $10k more but has a $7,500 tax credit and the savings on gas would pay for the additional $2,500 cost in 3-4 years if gas stays above $4 a gallon.

    Don’t forget that most dealers are tacking on a 5-7.5k premium on top of sticker price.

    Don’t believe it. Random cold call some of them for your entertainment.

  14. Ex says:

    All 3 cars we own call for premium. Man they run great on it.
    It’s $$$. Re: Nashvegas – it’s fine. I’d choose “Franklin” TN just outside of Nashville.
    Bowling Green is also a great town for Yankee relocation.
    You wont really get a warm reception though Gary. They do not really care for
    “Yankees” in those parts.

  15. BRT says:

    Juice, walmart sells purdue chicken at lower prices still. How they do it, I don’t know.

  16. Ex says:

    Property prices are already beginning to drop in parts of the Los Angeles area. Similarly the IPO market, a major source of capital gains, is retrenching. Financial setbacks for the wealthy are problematic for the state because the top 1% of income-earning Californians pay 46.2% of all personal income taxes.

    We’ve been here before. After the last recession ended in 2009, it took the state five years to get revenue from income taxes back up to pre-downturn levels. During those five years the state received about $50 billion less in revenue than if the recession had not occurred, and government was forced to cut programs by about $45 billion to compensate, according to the California Franchise Tax board.

    Today, the state is even more reliant on tax revenues from its wealthy elites: Capital gains collections have increased roughly fivefold since 2010. Income taxes, mostly from the very wealthy, which barely constituted one-third of state revenues in 1980, now make up two-thirds.

    A new recession, or even simply a slowdown, would place California in a very difficult position, particularly given that it continues to engage in what CalMatters columnist Dan Walters calls “an expansionist binge” of ever greater social spending and housing subsidies. Despite strong annual budgets, California suffers the highest debt of any state — $507 billion. It is projected that the cost of servicing the state’s debt in 2022 and 2023 will be approximately $8 billion annually and could grow even higher as interest rates rise.

  17. Boomer Remover says:

    I can understand home prices increasing.
    I can understand fomo to get in at a low rate.
    I can understand people wanting to bid up housing.
    I’m okay with all these things individually, but what I can’t get my brain around is an already stretched younger or midlife consumer nearly doubling his mortgage payment, and carrying that for the foreseeable future.

  18. Phoenix says:

    but what I can’t get my brain around is an already stretched younger or midlife consumer nearly doubling his mortgage payment, and carrying that for the foreseeable future.

    Well, then they get foreclosed on. Boomer don’t care, Boomer got his.

    Kids gotta live. Pay jacked up rent, or jacked up home price. With jacked up mortgage rate, jacked up fuel, taxes, and boomer debt (NJ currently 200B+)

    It should end well.

  19. Libturd says:

    Regular is $4.67 in my parts. Super is well into the 5s. Gary, Grim is right on the octane. You will actually feel the reduction in power. Try not to go back and forth too much between regular and super. You might even want to transition through the midgrade or stay there if the pinging does not go away on regular.

    Nashville is great. Very vibrant, Southern friendly, but lots of traffic like here. The City is really fun and music-centric. Memphis isn’t far away either with it’s storied history.

    On the nitrogen front, I wouldn’t buy the car. When I bought my Mazda 6, I was down to working with the manager, as I always end up. We were probably down to between $250 to $750 in profit for them based on the best of my research. I usually shoot for $500, so that’s where I need to settle the price negotiations. Well the dealer was $100 away from my number and wouldn’t budge. I spent about an hour (maybe more) to get to this point. The manager utters, “You are not going to leave over $50 as he wanted to meet me in the middle of the last $100.” I grabbed Gator and the D and we loaded back into our CX-9. As we were driving out of the parking lot, the manager comes out, blocks my path and says, “We have a deal.” As he sends me to the back of the floor to deal with the finance guy, he says, “Don’t even bother selling him anything, he won’t buy it.”

    We head into the finance office and the guy tries to sell me on the warranty. I tell him, the average insurance policy costs Mazda $125 a year. I’ll take it for that price. He says something insane like $1200 a year. I laugh in his face and ask to see his invoice. Sure enough, there’s the $50 window etch. I tell him to remove that or I’m not buying the car. He says, he can’t remove the etch charge since it’s written on the invoice. I said, you can put a line through it. He starts to argue with me and I turn to Gator and say, let’s go. He then crosses off the etch, and doesn’t say a single word the rest of the way.

    I always get a great price at Maxon, but the dealership is completely ghetto and the sales guys are professional bullshitters. They use every trick in the book and I’m sure rip off tons of unsuspecting fools. I’ve been to a lot of dealers over the years, but none are half as slimy as them. I think this is why I can get down to my price there where I can’t at other dealers. They simply make too much commission off of the average moron. I know, because when you spend an hour negotiating, you get to watch the other negotiations going on. And the average person grossly overpays. I mean, I saw people paying $3,000 over what they should pay.

    Know what’s funny? They don’t even put me on their mailing list.

  20. Phoenix says:

    Seems like most of the people on this forum pride themselves on little to no debt.

    But the states they live in thrive on it.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d choose “Franklin” TN just outside of Nashville.

    I’ve been looking there as well, just outside of Nashville. When I say Nashville, I mean the metro area.

  22. 3b says:

    Boomer: They will resort to using credit cards, to pay other bills as they juggle to pay the mortgage. It takes two paychecks to pay for the house that 25/ 30 years ago took one and plenty of money left over. Same house today, nothing done to the house in that time frame, it’s just 30 years older, but 2 to 3x the price. Looks like we are going backwards instead of forwards for the young people today.

  23. Libturd says:

    Phoenix/Boomer,

    Mortgage rates can be refinanced lower some time in the future.

  24. 3b says:

    GS employee shot dead in random subway shooting yesterday morning. NYC out of control!

  25. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    How recent is your story? Are things back to normal?

  26. 3b says:

    Lib: True, but they have to hang on until rates become low enough again to refinance, and then some will go back to a 30 year Morgan’s start the clock all over again.

  27. 3b says:

    Phoenix: High debt/ tax states are a sign of prestige.

  28. Phoenix says:

    Freedom isn’t free. Boomer charged the credit card, handed the bill to the youth.

    They will be paying the 200B debt boomer left to NJ.

    The 507B debt to California.

    The trillions of debt America owes that they didn’t get a vote in.

    Social Security and Medicare will be bankrupt-but it’s debt will survive.

    Sounds like fun.

  29. Phoenix says:

    Take bets. Will Stone Harbor be underwater faster from global warming or from it’s mortgage debts?

  30. Libturd says:

    Phoenix, 2016.

    In about 6 months, the auto dealers should be back to normal.

  31. grim says:

    I’d go north of Nashville, not south to Franklin or Brentwood. Those areas are already build up and the main target of relocation.

    North is the boonies. Leave your beamer, get a pickup.

  32. Phoenix says:

    Leave your beemer, get a pickup (with a gun rack)

  33. grim says:

    …and leave the Cannoli.

  34. grim says:

    Was in Denver last week, flight in and out of Newark was all pretty quiet and boring.

    Nearly zero masks if you were wondering, in the terminals, on the plane, etc.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d go north of Nashville, not south to Franklin or Brentwood. Those areas are already build up and the main target of relocation.

    North is the boonies. Leave your beamer, get a pickup.

    Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, etc. seem to be the hot spots for sure. I have no problem going north of the city and no problem replacing the beamer with a Chevy pickup.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    RE: The Goldman Sachs employee killed in the random subway shooting: It took two days for the news outlets to describe the shooter. O’Biden will no doubt not visit the family nor has he for the Southern Cal shootings nor the 2 dozen per week murders in South Chicago. Sympathy and calls for gun control (a.k.a confiscation) will only occur when a political advantage is possible.

  37. 3b says:

    Fast: 11:00 in the morning, and the poor guys life is taken, just like that. Meanwhile Mayor Adams is thinking about a Presidential run in 2024, because he has a plan!!

  38. Libturd says:

    That airline punch was crazy. It wasn’t even that hard. Dude fell like an elephant.

    Meanwhile, the number of kids racing on the Parkway is really becoming an issue. Time for cameras.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    It’s sickening. On a Sunday morning, the guy is meeting friends for brunch and some piece of shit just shoots him in the chest. I swear to G0d, if I was mayor of NYC, I’d have cops swarming, constantly. My budget would be adjusted, cut, modified and whatever else to make sure that crime was priority one.

  40. OC1 says:

    If the president visited the families of every shooting victim he would have no time to do anything else!

    Such is life in the USA.

  41. Libturd says:

    Fast,

    That family is a little too into hanging words on their walls. And the window on the mantle? Someone watches a little too much HGTV.

  42. 3b says:

    Memorial Day weekend weather is looking crappy at the moment.

  43. Old Man Condo says:

    Very exciting all this Nashville talk….but I’m actually a Titans fan (goes back to 1974 as an Oiler fan…I appreciate your sympathies). Years ago, Rutherford county was a client of mine. My associate moved there a few years ago, bought a house with 39 acres….seems about right!

  44. grim says:

    Seems like a nice place for ex-Jerseyans to live..

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Defeated,-Carthage,-TN_rb/

  45. Boomer Remover says:

    Phoenix — Perhaps naively, I don’t understand why we allow ourselves to be ruled by octogenarians with generational wealth.

    3b/Lib — At these price points, it makes much more sense to build a smart, modern, energy efficient prefab from the ground up for the cost of a uninspired tiny bedroom. I priced out some amazing 1,500-2,000 sq ft builds including basic site work for ~$600K. Land in NYC metro and relative tax rates make this a non starter, but could be a viable way forward for many elsewhere instead spending tens of thousands remodeling old homes. I don’t understand why this isn’t more popular. Oh wait, I do, that one Protohome built on a lot in L.A. got slapped with a $34K tax bill due to its assessed value.

    Finally some anecdotes:
    It’s possible that a majority of cash offers made on RE were not true cash offers as we understand them to be. I recall Grim saying at one point they accounted for something like 30% of closed transaction volume. I learned that the internet enabled financial products which are essentially hard money loans wrapped in a fintech/internet wrapper. Essentially second loans to bridge the down payment or 1031 money. I do not know how prevalent these were.

    An acquaintance was 15 years into a mortgage on a very nice and reasonable house in Burlington Co. Public servant, primary earner, retirement in 10 years. He sold to a NYC transplant in high covid and bought a 3,600l k sq ft mcMansion with a pool for $150K more an started the mortgage clock again. It’s like people actively try to make the worst financial decisions.

  46. OC1 says:

    “Meanwhile, the number of kids racing on the Parkway is really becoming an issue.”

    Glad it’s not just me noticing this (thought it might just be me getting old).

    But I saw some good instant road karma the other day.

    Dude swerves across two lanes of traffic and cuts me off. But he didn’t notice that the car next to me was a cop. :)

  47. Mike S says:

    Nashville is fun for a boys trip weekend, but I couldn’t imagine living there

  48. Old Man Condo says:

    Grim, he actually was from Florida, ex-marine sniper…….I wouldn’t trespass….

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s a shame that they are destroying the woods in Tennessee and the Carolinas. Why aren’t we just making buildings higher in the cities? Tear down the woods for new developments that look like total chit in 15-30 years and are left behind. Money is the root of all evil.. profit drives this madness on both ends. The developer wants to make easy money (land not built on) and the consumer wants cheaper housing (land not built on). As a species, we are f/ing pathetic. Greed will be the death of us or already is.

    Needless sprawl all in the name of profit.

  50. grim says:

    Nashville suburbs were all white flight. This was 1950-60s, just like up here.

  51. 3b says:

    And there were plenty of 5 percent down mortgages during the pandemic boom.

  52. Phoenix says:

    BR,
    The youth should take a lesson from Howard Beale in Network. Then act appropriately.
    Problem is Boomers and corporations have clearly written protections in the laws for themselves. Makes it one hell of an uphill battle for them. Also most Boomer teachers aren’t going to advocate or teach anything that will work against the system they feed off of.

    Income inequality-it’s going to fuel the flames going forward. Expect more turmoil. Many people aren’t deciding between regular and premium gas, or how hard they push the pedal on their Porsche.

    Then there is this-Newark, NJ.
    https://youtu.be/2_8vTl6D940?t=1929

  53. leftwing says:

    “CPI for Food was up 9.4% in April. However we have not seen anything yet. PPI is double the CPI..”

    WMT had its biggest share price decline last week since Oct ’87, thirty five years. Part of the issue on their hit to margins (aside from inventory issues) was their eating margin on certain goods, foodstuffs, that they did not want to pass on to their customer base.

    Can’t do that forever….

    “49 days Pumpkin-free”

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp said it was raising its U.S. minimum hourly wage to $22 on Monday, a step closer to its promise of paying workers $25 an hour by 2025.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bank-america-raises-hourly-minimum-101813179.html

  55. leftwing says:

    “Mortgage rates can be refinanced lower some time in the future.”

    Or, in the downside scenario, keys can be pushed across the table with a bailout or at least no real personal financial implications.

    Irresponsibility in today’s America, especially financial irresponsibility at all levels, is a win-win.

    Didn’t you guys get that memo?

  56. Bystander says:

    OC1,

    I am outraged that Biden did not show up in red halt doltville, Shelton CT, where a teenager from my town was fatally stabbed. How dare he not address this a priority..

    Ed,

    I agree. I would center the cops in the middle of fifth avenue. Something big is coming

    https://youtu.be/iTACH1eVIaA?t=7

  57. njtownhomer says:

    got a ioniq5 a month ago, not paying any gas money now. Feels good.
    Electrify America has 2 years free for new buyers, pretty fast charging, drives much better than Model3 or ModelY. Great car so far. Got lucky, saw website the dealer had two incoming and will get the full tax credit next year.

    Scotty Kilmer always mentioned the issue of octane requirements. I think all is good for many cars.

    On another note, had 2-3 open houses this week for our nice houses (1M+) in the neighborhood. I am not sure but the realtors had listed 10-15% less than it is worth for these houses (1acre lot, nice layout, pool etc), Seen about 50 cars over the weekend.

  58. 3b says:

    And Adams is demanding people come back to the office in NYC. Our next President! He has a plan!!

  59. Libturd says:

    My memo said, “You don’t qualify due to your AGI.” Meanwhile, my NET INCOME has me living check-to-check.

    Funny how taxes work.

  60. 3b says:

    Amazing no backlash on Biden saying he would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan! I guess the left is ok with that. It will be the minorities and the poor whites that will go and fight of course.

  61. BRT says:

    He’s full of crap. There’s no way he does anything to China. They have our whole supply line at their mercy.

  62. Limited says:

    I wouldn’t trust any negotiations made with General Tso.

  63. grim says:

    got a ioniq5 a month ago

    Yeah? Like it? They totally designed that to appeal to the younger Gen X, older Gen Y contingent, that lived through the hot hatch era. It’s definitely got a cool vibe to it.

  64. Bystander says:

    3b,

    If you can’t see a difference in rhetoric bw the Orange clown and Biden then not sure what to say. If Biden called Chinese prez ‘riceman’ and threatened fire and fury nuclear holocaust then I expect heavy criticism. Jumping to Biden putting troops on ground is just alarmist..for your own reasons, I guess.

  65. grim says:

    Reminds me of the VW Corrado.

  66. leftwing says:

    Biden is a senile old man used as a placeholder.

    No need to even debate anything on acknowledgment of that point. He’s irrelevant, everyone knows it…Left, Right, countries that are our allies, countries that are our foes.

    I remember my ex-‘s grandmother…wonderful woman, but by the time I knew her when she was lucid she was running at about 70% of normal and when she wasn’t…well she was just parked in the corner while the rest of the room went about its business trying to keep that last bit of dignity for her…every so often that goal would escape her and she would have to be led away.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4b131aHxCs&ab_channel=TheIndependent

  67. 3b says:

    Bystander: I was not comparing Biden to Trump. Trump is no longer President, Biden is. I don’t view everything or every issue through the what about Trump.

    My point is we have a mentally feeble old man committing young men and women predominant from lower social economic backgrounds to defend Taiwan. That I do have an issue with. And yes, if it was a Republican President whether Trump or anyone else, he or she would be accused of war mongering or risking nuclear war.

    Perhaps, if we had a draft and everyone had to go, Biden or a Republican President would be less inclined to threaten military force.

    I was adamantly opposed to Bush s Iraq invasion, and our 20 year involvement in Afghanistan.

  68. njtownhomer says:

    Grim:
    HI5 is very nice, drives smooth, quiet and yet has the electric acceleration when you need it. It is wide and spacious, looks small from outside, but the long wheelbase deceives the eye. They categorized as SUV, but it is like a high-hatch definitely.

    Looks like hyundai is signing up a plant plan in GA, growth in this market aggressively. Also has good base in Europe etc. On all its three lines, they are doing like Japanese did years back.

    I had driven M3, MY and MachE. This is by far the smoothest most comfortable ride. Had to settle what I had seen in the lot (SE), but there is a dealer in Freehold, who can sell at MSRP with an order book. The inventories in ZEV states are good, elsewhere terrible so people fly to east coast to buy one at MSRP.

  69. Ex says:

    $6.00 regular gas in SoCal.

    I spent Sunday burning dinosaurs on the PCH.

  70. Ex says:

    I have family in Nashville going back 4 generations.
    Believe or not Dinah Shore shows up in my family tree.

  71. Libturd says:

    EX,

    Have your lights stayed on? Hearing about terrible rolling blackouts lately from some Cali people I know.

  72. crushednjmillenial says:

    Melvin Capital went bust.

    I would have thought that the 20% broad market decline, and 70% declines in speculative growth tech would have blown out another Archegos into the public spotlight, but I guess sharks are just quietly eating some hedge funds who were leveraged long. At this point, we’ve declined through a round of 13F’s, but I haven’t heard of a big problem in msm-business news yet.

    The tide hasn’t gone out far enoguh yet to see who is swimming naked?

    On another note, Monkeypox contracted from trying on clothing should be smoking apparel retailers, but TJX and ROST are up big today?

  73. Bystander says:

    3b,

    Ok if you say so but you are clearly wondering why the outrage and articles are somehow not the same now. Really you are comparing the two. In this instance, I am highlighting that there is a huge difference in rhetoric. I won’t question the slowness of old Joe..but, at this point, rather than trying to point at media hypocrisy (which is clearly non-partisan) who is the solution in 18 months?

  74. Ex says:

    1:24 so far so good. We keep a sweet little generator around for just such an occasion.
    Usually it’s worse as the summer progresses.

  75. grim says:

    Need to stockpile aluminum foil for hats.

    Monkeypox now?

    Sorry, I can’t be the only one that feels like this is some kind of biological terrorism now.

    Or is this just bias allowing these things to bleed through to the headlines?

  76. BRT says:

    grim, they’ve been selling this crap forever. As a teacher, my first year, I had all kinds of Swine Flu posters they wanted me to put up. A few years later, they gave me bird flu things for my classroom. The CDC has been playing chicken little for decades and when we actually got a formidable virus, many, including myself, were completely tone deaf to it at first. Even so, despite the incredible contagiousness of this virus, they did overhype the danger. This is how these agencies get their funding tripled, they have no incentive not to hype things up.

  77. 3b says:

    Bystander: I don’t see it as comparing the two, rather contrasting the two. We got rid of the clown Trump, and were told we were replacing him with a seasoned professional, with expertise in foreign affairs. What we got however, is a feeble old man in cognitive decline babbling on committing US forces to defend China. That in my mind is dangerous and a dramatic change from not commenting one way or the other.

    As for the media, for the most part they defend Biden and the Democrats or stay silent; that in my mind is obviously.

    As for who becomes President in 2024, I believe I answered that question in the past, there is no one on the horizon from either party that I would vote for.

  78. Bystander says:

    “As for who becomes President in 2024, I believe I answered that question in the past, there is no one on the horizon from either party that I would vote for.”

    Well then I guess none if matters..let’s just enjoy the last swirl ’round the drain. I thought that there were sane candidates on R side but the cult won’t make space in the Orange elephant’s room.

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander;

    Yup, Trump could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and depending on who he shoots, I would still vote for him. But then, why does Trump come into the picture yet again? Car doesn’t start? Trump. It’s gonna rain tomorrow? Trump. Had a little fire in the place? Trump.

  80. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    If he won’t leave then how can we forget him? If Biden runs then I agree..we deserve Dumpy again. I won’t be here if it become Biden vs Trump 2. That dual citizenship will come in handy.

  81. No One says:

    Grim,
    Read “State of Fear” by Michael Crichton. Illustrates the symbiosis between the catastrophe-media-government complex. Fictional, and focused on “climate crisis” but relevant to a broader range of supposed crises.
    If there are no emergencies, then who needs experts and government agencies to expand their powers to save us all?

  82. Juice Box says:

    Fab – Where are you hiding? Robby Mook fingered Hillary Clinton in court on Friday. It won’t save her Attorney from going to jail either.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/politics/hillary-clinton-robby-mook-fbi/index.html

  83. Juice Box says:

    A nice breakdown here. Perhaps Sussman’s only move left now is to break Attorney client privilege and finger Hillary.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-did-sussmanns-attorneys-put-robby-mook-on-the-witness-stand/

  84. 3b says:

    Bystander: Agreed, as for the cult in my views both sides are cults. The Trump cult, and then the radical lefts cult as well. As for Trump going away, I wish he would, but does not appear that will be the case. Meanwhile, the moderates and centrists appear to have no power to change anything.

  85. 3b says:

    CNN article entitled Joe Biden keeps stepping on it, in reference to his Taiwan comments. White House aides back pedaling on his comments of course, and understandable. It’s about time CNN!! Biden is dangerous.

  86. Juice Box says:

    njtownhomer – re: Hyundai Ioniq 5

    How much over sticker? Anywhere near the $60,000 price with all the options?

  87. crushednjmillenial says:

    2024 and beyond . . .

    If either Biden or Kamala are the D candidate, I’d imagine anyone can see that Trump would likely win easily in 2024.

    In 2028, the big question is if the D’s run someone aligned with the Squad on economics and maybe even woke on cultural issues. If so, then that would be McGovern II and thus likely President DeSantis for two terms.

    Before anyone acccuses me of being partisan, please consult current betting odds. Based on gamlers real money bets, both Trump and DeSantis are more likely to be president in 2024, according to the market, then any D.

  88. crushednjmillenial says:

    Haha, Stacey Abrams for President, 2028.

  89. 3b says:

    Crushed: I believe Biden is out for 2024, if nothing else his family needs to step in and stop him. However, what to do with Harris? She won’t go quietly, and she is a disaster.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, life is a lot about luck. Trump is one lucky mofo that he didn’t win this election. He would now be dead to people as would the Republican party. That’s how stupid politics is. Timing is everything just like investing. Better hope if you win, the economy cooperates, just like investing.

    Oh gee, I became President during a relatively peaceful time and great economy….whoa, I’m now one of the greatest presidents ever.

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s how pathetic trump is…he had a relatively peaceful time and a great economy. Of course he f/ed it up with his mouth. Still, he now gets to say…look at how good the economy was when I was in office. It was all because of ME.

  92. Boomer Remover says:

    Re: Hyundai EV’s

    I lease the older Ioniq 38kwh hatch at $150 per month sign and drive. It’s fast for a grocery getter, light and airy feel and fabrics inside. The new Ioniq 5 is tempting, but as a Huyndai EV owner, it shares a lot of interior materials, layout and info UX, so that wow factor isn’t there. I drove a Tesla M3 and I too found the Hyundai much smoother.

    I can buy out the ’20 hatch at the end for $21K no tax, or get the Ioniq 5 for $41K no tax net of rebates… so tempting but I think I’d like battery precondition and a wiper out back to pull the trigger on the I5.

    NJtownhomer – Don’t forget to apply to receive your $5K/$2.5K check from the state of NJ.

    They sell these now without markup, there’s a Facebook group which keeps a list of dealers who are happy to sell to you without a markup.

  93. Libturd says:

    If you are paying 60K for a car, then you are not interested in saving money. You might still be interested in saving the environment, though I’m still not convinced anyone who drives an EV in America is saving the environment when 48% of our electricity is generated from fossil fuels. But don’t get too excited. 42% is nuclear and we still haven’t found a place to store our spent uranium rods. Also, drive carefully at high speeds. Large lithium-ion batteries tend to burn and explode when violently disturbed. If you get stuck in your car, tell the firefighters to hose down the batteries first, then pry you out.

    For what it’s worth, someone on the Montclair portion of my block got one and it’s by far the sharpest EV I’ve seen so far. My whole block is filled with Priuses and Subarus. Why not throw in the Ioniq?

  94. njtownhomer says:

    juice: paid 1k over. initially dealer asked 2k though. paramus wanted 5k
    over. I could have waited but the financing deal most likely would have gone up.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Come on, did you ever step up to a bully in your life? Yea, backing down and ignoring the bully works really well.

    3b says:
    May 23, 2022 at 3:09 pm
    CNN article entitled Joe Biden keeps stepping on it, in reference to his Taiwan comments. White House aides back pedaling on his comments of course, and understandable. It’s about time CNN!! Biden is dangerous.

  96. JCer says:

    Lib, I don’t know how you managed to buy a car from Maxon. I tried twice and couldn’t handle it, it’s more than a little bit ghetto, they get you into the dealership and you die there. I bought a car from Hudson Hyundai in Jersey City, you know the dealer that advertises on local radio that they deal with bad credit and will sell you a 50k truck if you have $100 to put down, and it was not as bad as Maxon. They were so incompetent that they actually sold us the car for less than what we offered. Maxon is just the worst, they will not negotiate over the phone and in person it is like an 8 hour exercise, before carmageddon you could likely deal because they were all about volume now they need to make profit on the cars of the salesmen go broke. Granted both times I tried to buy a Palisade from them which was highly in demand and selling for over sticker since it was released before carmageddon. I actually bought from the dealer in Wayne where the transaction from start to finish was only like 3 hours(got them to a $1500 market adjustment plus other crap, window etching, etc amounting to $500 I didn’t want to buy). I tried to buy from Hudson again and they kept me waiting for an hour as the salesman “spoke to his manager” only to have the finance manager come over and tell me their first offer($4500 market adjustment) was their best and final. I don’t know why but all Hyundai dealers are extremely ghetto, they really should fix it as now they are making some nice cars. The service experience is another thing entirely, coming from luxury cars I’m used to a posher yet much more expensive experience. It seems like all Hyundai dealers have a severely undersized service department again coming from Land Rover where I swear all dealers have a 30 bay service facility and they sell fewer cars.

    Key lesson, you don’t want to buy in this climate it is awful, my wife got into wreck so we had, to at least the insurance money was good for an 8 year old car. It hurts my soul to pay over MSRP for a car. This is why I’m trying frantically to keep my 15+ year old Range Rover on the road.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I want my President to tell China that Taiwan is hands off. Are we just going to let Taiwan get destroyed?

  98. Trick says:

    Juice, there was a dealer on lease hackers forum selling its brother the kia ev6 for MSRP
    https://forum.leasehackr.com/t/kia-ev6-wind-awd-msrp-7500-tax-credit/417379

  99. grim says:

    Make friends with the dealership owner, then just don’t buy anything else, anywhere else.

    Buying the Subaru Ascent from the local Subie dealer, based on an intro from my neighbor, who knows the owner well, was the single best dealership experience.

    No bs, no need to even negotiate, price offered was fantastic, no hassles, zero pressure, in and out fast. We didn’t even need to work with a sales guy, the manager had everything ready for us.

    Sure the sales guys didn’t like it, but I don’t care. I’m sure on a pipeline list somewhere, someone got credit for the sale.

  100. grim says:

    Rt 3 Honda looking for a Honda Pilot with 3 rows and 2nd row captains seats.

    Absolutely a f*cking disaster, never again.

    They claimed they had one, but apparently they claim they have everything to get you in the door.

  101. 3b says:

    49 Days Comment Free.

  102. Libturd says:

    JCer,

    I am one serious pain in the ass when it comes to buying cars. Gator laughs at me, but the first thing I do is, like a hypnotist, say, “You are going to sell me this car for X amount.” The dealer always laughs and says we are so far apart, you might as well leave. Then I say, “Are you sure?” Then they go to the sales manager and I get to negotiate with them. The best part is winking at the original sales guy and saying, “I told you so.”

    He doesn’t really care as he wasn’t going to make much off me anyway.

  103. No One says:

    China has been increasingly aggressive about Taiwan in recent years, and have been ramping up their internal propaganda on “reunification”.
    The US really cannot afford to let China militarily invade Taiwan because:
    1) US credibility in regard to defense with the rest of the region’s nations would be shot, and it would welcome more invasions.
    2) For the next 15 years at least, Taiwan produces the biggest % of semiconductor chips in the world. Giving China control of that would be almost as bad as giving them control of US water supplies.
    3) The only way to prevent a military invasion is to let China know it would be extremely costly to them, including in lives. If the US says, yeah, whatever, in contrast to past promises to help support Taiwan’s defense, then China will try to take over quicker. Still, it’s best to let the Taiwanese fight with our weapons. But it’s an island, and if you need to re-arm them mid-battle, the US would have to get militarily involved.
    4) Taiwan is kind of like the Asian half-brother you didn’t know you had. The US had protected this kid and sent him to school out of state, and now has grown up while it adopted self-government, got smart and fairly wealthy, is quite pro-American.

  104. 3b says:

    No One: All valid points, but we are in no condition to threaten China, and secondly, before a radical change in US thinking regarding Taiwan were announces, it should only come after careful and reasoned thinking along with plans for how to deal with the ramifications.

    It should not just come off the cuff from a President who is clearly mentally in decline. Finally, if this is the route we are going, then we should consider reimplementing the draft.

  105. njtownhomer says:

    tesla got a lot of credit bypassing the stealerships. My latest experience was OK, but these guys should re-architect themselves if they want to become lux brand or multi-technology (ICE and EV).

    I’d favor a company to ditch their local dealer network to have a direct representation to the customer. Ford at some level is trying that after Bronco failures. MachE / F150L will show how they respond to Bronco catastrophy but they should better learn the game

  106. No One says:

    3b,
    Biden isn’t capable of communicating any original thought clearly, so I must assume that a question like this was already anticipated and practiced with his staff over the past year. He’s best at one word answers, “yes” or “no”. I don’t think it’s off the cuff, I think his advisors have decided over the past year to get slightly less ambiguous.

    Alternatively, Biden is just repeating what he used to say when he was on the foreign relations committee in the Senate. I don’t know what he said back then, but it would be very typical of him to just revert back to what he said 30 years ago when his brain was working better.

    If the US isn’t ready to confront China, then get ready to be ass-raped by small penises, because they are certainly preparing to threaten the US in the coming decades. Would you rather threaten them after they took over half the world’s semiconductor production, or before?

    This isn’t to defend Biden, he probably barely knows what he’s saying. But I don’t have a problem with a policy of defending Taiwan. It’s just that I’d rather give them very advanced arms and demand they boost their domestic military strength, than count on much direct US intervention. But the US cannot afford to rule it out. Because China is moving away from the old status-quo too.

  107. chicagofinance says:

    Old Man Condo says:
    May 23, 2022 at 11:09 am
    Very exciting all this Nashville talk….but I’m actually a Titans fan (goes back to 1974 as an Oiler fan…I appreciate your sympathies).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi67gnuWQnk

  108. Old man condo says:

    I have bought 2 from Wayne Subaru. Painless both times. I have another on order from Liberty, could not get a hold of my Wayne person. We’ll see how that goes on delivery, but ordered below MSRP.

  109. 3b says:

    No One: I am not convinced his aides were behind this, the White House is again backpedaling. But even were it true, we as a country are in no position to threaten China, militarily or economically. As for the people of Taiwan, I am skeptical they will resist to the extent the Ukrainians have with the Russians,but I could be wrong

  110. Libturd says:

    I don’t know. If I was president, I would hurt China where it counts. I would tell China that if it invades Taiwan, all Chinese manufactured products would be contraband in the US going forward. Of course, we can’t ever do this as the rich people who pay for our politicians also happen to own our corporations which all manufacture their products in China. It’s much cheaper and less painful to spend the offspring of the poor on fighting war. Best of all, it will even make some of these rich donors wealthier as many of them own defense contractors.

    War it is.

  111. 3b says:

    Lib: Basically my point Lib, China owns us. Their government would let millions of their citizens starve/ die, in order to take Taiwan if need be.

  112. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: I just want to acknowledge your accent on the technical bounce today. As opposed to words, you offered a primer for your rationale on Friday.

  113. Hold my beer says:

    The I5 looks good too.

    Want to ditch the pathfinder before the 1 year warranty on the refurbished transmission ends in April 2023. Hoping supply chain issue is resolved and car pricing is back to normal before then

  114. Juice Box says:

    Biggest problem with a Tesla by far is repairs either from an accident or wear and tear. Many horror stories out there, from a $15,000 dollar bumper repair from a minor fender bender to a brand new car being unusable do to a minor road debris that broke a simple plastic coolant fitting requiring an entire battery pack replacement.

    I will have to do some research on the Hyundai repairs etc.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Glad you aren’t calling the shots. When has the policy of appeasement ever worked? Look at what that has done for us with China over the last 30 years. They should have listened to Trump in the 90’s and not let China build up, but the jackasses that think like you did. Now your answer is to not threaten China? You like getting walked all over?

    3b says:
    May 23, 2022 at 4:45 pm
    No One: I am not convinced his aides were behind this, the White House is again backpedaling. But even were it true, we as a country are in no position to threaten China, militarily or economically. As for the people of Taiwan, I am skeptical they will resist to the extent the Ukrainians have with the Russians,but I could be wrong

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who has the biggest weakness? That’s right, china. They have to feed over a billion people. They want war, bring it!

  117. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They also are nowhere near their goal of supporting themselves. They are still living off of trade with other countries (specifically us). Let’s turn that faucet off and see how it goes for them.

  118. Juice Box says:

    Taiwan is run by the people that lost the Chinese civil war, the same Chinese nationalist party is in power there today. Our one China policy has been around for 50 years. Sleepy Joe should not be committing my children to defending Taiwan. For that very reason I want him out of office, this is not by any means appeasement this is an internal issue for the Chinese and we should stay out. There is no commitment for our military to defend them sleepy Joe is speaking out of turn when he says our military would defend them, nothing can proceed without congressional approval. The laws were changed in 1973 with the war powers act to prevent another police action by our president in Asia again.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice, let me know what happens after they take Taiwan…

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just ask yourself…why do they want this Island so badly? Why are they obsessed with it? Now align that with their goal to be supreme power in Asia and then the world.

  121. 3b says:

    Juice: I watched the news conference today where Biden committed to defending Taiwan. It’s clear he did not have a clue when he answered the question. The White House true to form this last past year is pedaling backwards on yet another Biden screw up.

    Logically, we cannot say we believe in a one government China and that the current government in China is the only Chinese government and that Taiwan is part of China, and turn around and say we will defend Taiwan if China takes what we recognize right or wrong as part of China. And again, we are in no position to threaten China.

    If people support Biden’s comments today, than they should sign up for military service and advocate reinstatement of the draft.

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    You have no balls. To put it lightly. “We are in no position to threaten them”…they are in no position to threaten us. Like I said, ignoring China is not going to make them go away. Longer you wait, the more powerful they become. And the minute they smell fear, they will bite.

    Understand, world peace is a pipe dream. Families can’t even get along, and you think the world will? You cry about the crime in nyc all the time…you know what that’s a result of…appeasement. Pussy approach with crime and homelessness. F them. That’s how you handle it, or you get f’ed.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Climate change has made the current Indian heat wave (now 2 months long) ~30 times more likely than a century ago. A heat wave like this is now a ~1 in 100 year event. A century ago it would have been a ~1 in 3,000 year event. And this will get worse as the planet warms. We’ve very likely ruled out truly catastrophic warming, but we still face rising climate risks, and need to move faster.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/climate/india-pakistan-heat-wave-global-warming

  124. Juice Box says:

    95% of people on that island are Han Chinese. They want self
    Determination, well then they will need to fight for it again just like they did in 1945 and lost. It is not our place to intervene in their civil wars. Imagine if China came here and tried to help the former confederate southern states succeed from the Union again? There would be a world war over it.

  125. leftwing says:

    Hmmmm….

  126. leftwing says:

    Re: Biden and China, maybe they should bring this WH handler back, he atleast listens to her.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtqiLobIJnU&ab_channel=SkyNewsAustralia

  127. JCer says:

    Lib, I agree in the past that worked, it was like a game of chicken everyone knew you would most likely leave with the car but who would break first. But that was because car salesman and managers wanted to make the sale even if they weren’t really making much money because they get bonuses for volume from the manufacturer and they think they are going to be able to sell you something in the finance office even if you seem difficult. For the most part in the past if they sold you a car they had 10 others to sell and could get more if they emptied the lot. Today they need to squeeze every ounce of profit out and inventory is so short they know they have multiple buyers for each car they have on the lot, the lots are empty.

  128. Faster Eddie says:

    The S&P 500 has tumbled by more than 17% from a January record high through Monday’s close. The index has posted monthly losses each month this year except March, and it’s on track for another slide in May. The Nasdaq Composite has fared even worse, plunging more than 28% from its record high from Nov. 19, as once high-flying tech shares have been especially battered.

    Any questions?

  129. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Baby Bump
    U.S. births increased last year for the first time in seven years, according to federal figures released Tuesday that offer the latest indication the pandemic baby bust was smaller than expected. American women had about 3.66 million babies in 2021, up 1% from the prior year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was the first increase since 2014. The rebound spanned age groups, with birthrates rising for every cohort of women age 25 and older. Births still remain at historically low levels after peaking in 2007 and then plummeting during the recession that began at the end of that year. The total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime—was 1.66 last year, up from 1.64 the prior year, when it fell to the lowest level since the government began tracking it in the 1930s, Janet Adamy and Anthony DeBarros report.

  130. Phoenix says:

    That’s right, china. They have to feed over a billion people. They want war, bring it!

    Two words.

    Chicken Hawk.

  131. Phoenix says:

    Pumpy you are aligned with good company:

    Donald Trump, POTUS/reality TV show star (numerous deferments for “bone spurs”—but he enjoys golfing to this day and gets around fine)

    Rush Limbaugh, talk show personality (deferred for anal cysts)

    Ted Nugent, musician and outspoken “Republican” and NRA enthusiast (shit and pissed himself repeatedly when he was presented before recruiters)

    Mitt Romney, Senator (Sought to register as a conscientious objector—was eventually timed out when he turned 26)

    Dick Cheney, former VPOTUS, businessman and major shareholder at Halliburton (5 deferments)

    George W. Bush, former POTUS (He joined the National Guard at a key position, avoiding deployment. He didn’t fight, which was ironic, as his father fought in WWII)

    Newt Gingrich, former Senator, now Fox News Personality (pretended to sign up for ROTC)

    Honorable mentions:

    Bill Clinton, former POTUS (pretended to sign up for ROTC). He’s not a warhawk like the others, but he did dodge the draft.

    Bernie Sanders, Senator (Sought to register as a conscientious objector—was eventually timed out when he turned 26). Like Clinton, he’s not nearly as pro-war as the aforementioned notable figures, but he did dodge the draft.

    Couldn’t find a list of Dems, but I’m sure there are plenty. Here is a list of Repubs however:

    Donald Trump: did not serve but claims his private military boarding
    school experience gave him “more military training than the Army
    could.” Also disrespectfully described his promiscuity during the 1980s
    AIDS scare as “my own personal Vietnam.”
    * George W. Bush: failed to complete his six-year National Guard; got
    assigned to Alabama so he could campaign for family friend running
    for U.S. Senate; failed to show up for required medical exam,
    disappeared from duty.
    * Dick Cheney: did not serve. Several deferments, the last by marriage.
    * Don Rumsfeld: served in Navy (1954-57) as flight instructor.
    * Rush Limbaugh: did not serve (4-F with a ‘pilonidal cyst.’)
    * Bill O’Reilly: did not serve.
    * Dennis Hastert: did not serve.
    * Tom Delay: did not serve.
    * Roy Blunt: did not serve.
    * Bill Frist: did not serve.
    * Mitch McConnell: did not serve.
    * Rick Santorum: did not serve.
    * Trent Lott: did not serve.
    * John Ashcroft: did not serve. Seven deferments to teach business.
    * Jeb Bush: did not serve.
    * Karl Rove: did not serve.
    * Saxby Chambliss: did not serve. “Bad knee.” (The man who attacked Max
    Cleland’s patriotism.)
    * Paul Wolfowitz: did not serve.
    * Vin Weber: did not serve.
    * Richard Perle: did not serve.
    * Douglas Feith: did not serve.
    * Eliot Abrams: did not serve.
    * Richard Shelby: did not serve.
    * John Kyl: did not serve.
    * Tim Hutchison: did not serve.
    * Christopher Cox: did not serve.
    * Newt Gingrich: did not serve.
    * Ronald Reagan: due to poor eyesight, served in a non-combat role
    making movies. Quit while the war was still going on.
    * “B-1” Bob Dornan: Consciously enlisted after fighting was over in
    Korea.
    * Phil Gramm: did not serve.
    * Dana Rohrabacher: did not serve.
    * John M. McHugh: did not serve.
    * JC Watts: did not serve.
    * Jack Kemp: did not serve. “Knee problem,” although continued in NFL
    for 8 years.
    * Dan Quayle: Journalism unit of the Indiana National Guard.
    * Rudy Giuliani: did not serve.
    * George Pataki: did not serve.
    * Spencer Abraham: did not serve.
    * John Engler: did not serve.
    * Arnold Schwarzenegger: AWOL from Austrian army base.
    * Sean Hannity: did not serve.
    * Michael Savage: did not serve.
    * George Will: did not serve.
    * Paul Gigot: did not serve.
    * Bill Bennett: did not serve.
    * Pat Buchanan: did not serve.
    * Bill Kristol: did not serve.
    * Kenneth Starr: did not serve.
    * Antonin Scalia: did not serve.
    * Clarence Thomas: did not serve.
    * Ralph Reed: did not serve.
    * Michael Medved: did not serve.
    * John Wayne: did not serve.
    * Charlie Daniels: did not serve.
    * Ted Nugent: did not serve. (He only shoots at things that don’t

  132. Libturd says:

    Chi – Yup

    JCer – I know. Both of our Mazda’s are > 120K miles. Both have been incredibly reliable (no real repairs besides normal wear and tear parts), but we are reaching the point where repairs will become more frequent. For instance, just had to do the tie-rod and ends on the CX-9.

  133. 3b says:

    Chatter out there in various articles that the Fed will continue to raise rates, and then reverse course in 2023. I assume they define reverse as go back. So the Fed will reverse and the stock market and housing markets will start to reflate again, and then it’s back to the races? And inflation? Is that then contained enough to reverse course and reflate asset bubbles. None of these “ experts” offer any kind of analysis that examines what could happen if the Fed reversed course.

  134. Grim says:

    New car shortage not long for this world. Supply going to pick up with the chip and supply chain issues in the rear view, plus demand erosion due to the recession.

    More likely that we see continued downward pressure on used car supplies due to the combined effects of recession, along with owners running their longer-term financing to term (and longer).

    Probably going to be a window where you can get a premium price for your used car, while negotiating a deal new – especially if you don’t need financing.

  135. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is not the same. We promised that we would protect them. What kind of message does that send if we go back on that? Who is going to trust us anymore?

    Juice, think about this a little more. China wants that island because they will have total control over the semiconductors. If China owns the semiconductors market, we are f/ed. Add in the fact that it’s also a highly productive economy. Like a NJ, small in size, but huge economy. Why do you think China is so obsessed with gaining this territory….because it really hurts us. The minute they get Taiwan, they will feel like we are weak, and go to work acting on it.

    Btw, Britain and France almost came to the rescue for the South. Fortunately, they didn’t go through with it.

    Juice Box says:
    May 23, 2022 at 8:55 pm
    95% of people on that island are Han Chinese. They want self
    Determination, well then they will need to fight for it again just like they did in 1945 and lost. It is not our place to intervene in their civil wars. Imagine if China came here and tried to help the former confederate southern states succeed from the Union again? There would be a world war over it.

  136. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cathie Wood has been saying this since end of last year in her argument that inflation will become deflation. So far, looks like she is dead on. She was just early to the game.

    Grim says:
    May 24, 2022 at 8:43 am
    New car shortage not long for this world. Supply going to pick up with the chip and supply chain issues in the rear view, plus demand erosion due to the recession.

    More likely that we see continued downward pressure on used car supplies due to the combined effects of recession, along with owners running their longer-term financing to term (and longer).

    Probably going to be a window where you can get a premium price for your used car, while negotiating a deal new – especially if you don’t need financing.

  137. grim says:

    Let ‘em have it.

  138. grim says:

    House across the street just listed $670k

    Hot damn.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    China is playing chess. We lose Taiwan, we lose a very important piece to win this game.

    “On the front line of the superpower struggle between the United States and China, Taiwan has fashioned a defensive masterstroke. It has become indispensable to both sides.

    In dominating the fabrication of the most advanced semiconductors, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) has captured a technology that’s crucial to the cutting-edge digital devices and weapons of today and tomorrow. TSMC accounts for more than 90% of global output of these chips, according to industry estimates.

    Both superpowers now find themselves deeply dependent on the small island at the center of their increasingly tense rivalry.

    For Washington, allowing an increasingly powerful China to overrun TSMC’s foundries in a conflict would threaten U.S. military and technological leadership. However, if Beijing invades, there is no guarantee it could seize the prized foundries intact. They could easily become a casualty of the fighting, severing the supply of chips to China’s vast electronics industry. Even if the foundries survived a Chinese takeover, they would almost certainly be cut off from a global supply chain essential to their output.”

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

    grim says:
    May 24, 2022 at 8:56 am
    Let ‘em have it.

  140. Libturd says:

    Noticed more inventory on the market than has been for a while this morning, but also noticing a lot of under contract signs to. I’m guessing it’s the last hurrah.

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Face it, Nj is not like the rest of the real estate market. It’s not a speculative market. There is only so much you can build here.

    What do we know about every cycle? Florida is f/ed. You never hold Florida real estate long-term. The busts are incredible.

    Places like Florida, Vegas, Nashville, Arizona, Denver, and Texas will get hurt.

    Look at last bust in 2008….how long did Cali and NYC metro market stay down? Cali was down for a couple months and started rebounding. Same with NYC. They barely fell.

    NYC metro is the safest place. It really is. It didn’t go up over a 100% in pricing. It’s not a speculative market. From 2010-2019, NYC metro barely went up in pricing. So this latest jump in the past 2 years is just a reversion to the mean to make up for the stagnant price gains that were non existent for a decade. I don’t see how homes drop in price around here.

    Libturd says:
    May 24, 2022 at 9:07 am
    Noticed more inventory on the market than has been for a while this morning, but also noticing a lot of under contract signs to. I’m guessing it’s the last hurrah.

  142. Grim says:

    You can build world class chip manufacturing anywhere in the world.

    Taiwan is beholden to American research and fabs.

    US needs to go on an economic and innovation offensive. Needing to be defensive and reactive to other global players will always be a losing strategy.

  143. 3b says:

    Grim : Well said.

  144. 3b says:

    Lib: Amazon to sublease 10 million square feet of warehouse space, as well as dump and space and renegotiate other leases. I am sure some of that warehouse space is in the NYC metro area including north Jersey. Between that and the massive amounts of office space available, it’s going to get messy.

  145. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “CHINA DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS IT AND RUSSIA CONDUCT JOINT STRATEGIC AERIAL PATROL ON MAY 24”

  146. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Demand collapsing across many industries like we’re seeing all point to one thing imo – Inflation has already peaked.”

  147. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s called recession…

    And man, you crack me up with your obsession with praying for a housing crash in north jersey. Dream on. Stop getting your hopes up.

    3b says:
    May 24, 2022 at 9:28 am
    Lib: Amazon to sublease 10 million square feet of warehouse space, as well as dump and space and renegotiate other leases. I am sure some of that warehouse space is in the NYC metro area including north Jersey. Between that and the massive amounts of office space available, it’s going to get messy.

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And amazon will end up buying it all back and some next cycle…that is, unless a competitor beats them to it. I would not be giving up my warehouse position, but that’s just me.

  149. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Bidens comment about Taiwan was on the the most sensible things the senile old fvcj has said in a while.

    Taiwan is a massive strategic ally. These are not afghani goat herders. The humanitarian disaster would be epic. It would make that debacle look inconsequential.

    China is already surprising us in AI. If we cede Taiwan and hand over the chip foundries intact China I think a gap opens in that field that we can’t close. Our stem fields have become woke and are already losing ground.

    A more sensible position would be scorched earth. If they want Taiwan that badly be sure it’s stripped off so it’s useful assets.

  150. 3b says:

    Biden: How do you square that with the US governments one China policy? You can’t have it both ways? Additionally, as I said we are in no position to dictate to the Chinese government. If the US government is going to change its position, it needs to be well thought out, and reflective of the current reality, not the musings of an old man who is clearly in mental decline. Finally, if this in fact our new position on Taiwan/ China although logically it can’t be, if we recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, then we need to reinstate the draft. If Taiwan is worth Americans dying for, then lets make sure all Americans are involved in the sacrifice, and not just the minorities and lower socio economic whites.

  151. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty much playing the lottery…just hope your body can defend itself.

    “Most COVID-19 patients recover from their acute infection within two weeks, but bits of the virus don’t always disappear from patients’ bodies immediately. Now a new study, one of the largest focusing on hospitalized COVID-19 patients, shows that some patients harbor these viral remnants for weeks to months after their primary COVID-19 symptoms resolve.
    The study suggests that when the genetic material of the virus, called RNA, lingers in the body longer than 14 days, patients may face worse disease outcomes, experience delirium, stay longer in the hospital, and have a higher risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with those who cleared the virus rapidly. The persistence of the virus may also play a role in long COVID, the debilitating suite of symptoms that can last for months. Estimates suggest between 7.7 and 23 million people in the United States alone are now affected by long COVID.
    Without immunity from vaccination or a previous infection, SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—replicates and spreads throughout the body and is shed through the nose, mouth, and gut. But for most infected people, virus levels in the body peak between three and six days after the original infection, and the immune system clears the pathogen within 10 days. The virus shed after this period is generally not infectious.
    Even after accounting for disease severity, whether the patients were intubated, or had underlying medical comorbidities, “there is something here that signals that patients who are persistently PCR positive have worse outcomes,” says Ayush Batra, a neurologist at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, who led the new study.
    Batra’s study shows that patients who had prolonged shedding during an acute infection risk more severe outcomes from COVID-19, says Timothy Henrich, a virologist and immunologist at the University of California, San Francisco who was not involved in the new research. But the study doesn’t investigate whether this persistent virus is directly responsible for long COVID.
    “There are multiple leading hypotheses out there about the cause of long COVID, including viral persistence, and it may be that there are multiple pathways at play, perhaps to some varying degree in any one person,” says Linda Geng, a doctor at Stanford Health Care who co-directs a newly opened Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome Clinic for treating long COVID sufferers.”

    https://apple.news/AZ-mnT-LGSUq2v_62SQxvrw

  152. Libturd says:

    “US needs to go on an economic and innovation offensive. Needing to be defensive and reactive to other global players will always be a losing strategy.”

    You are correct. This will never happen anymore. Not with how dependent our government is on lobbyist dollars and campaign financing from the wealthy kingmakers.
    These donors are only selfishly interested in a return on investment of their OWN businesses. The government can’t tell businesses what to do anymore. Heck, they don’t even have the power to break up monopolies or lock up corporate criminals. Our government’s only attempt at innovation is to give their biggest donors giant forgivable loans to build businesses destined to fail as the owners simply take huge salaries until their LLCs go belly up. We could be building labs in our colleges and universities or improving primary school curriculums, but schools don’t really contribute like wealthy LLC owners. Sure, the public sector unions will spend millions of dollars on particular candidates, but that’s not to improve schools. That’s to protect their compensation.

    Our country is screwed when it comes to global competition.

  153. Jim says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2022 at 8:52 am
    Cathie Wood has been saying this since end of last year in her argument that inflation will become deflation. So far, looks like she is dead on. She was just early to the game.

    When do you think Cathie goes bankrupt? All new lows today, innovative my ass. Loser like her advocate. She can sure pick the losers .So far she is dead on!!

  154. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    We’ve also supported Taiwan militarily throughout with weapons and training. One China has always been lip service to open commerce and anything else that’s mutually beneficial. We thought opening China to capitalism would liberalize it. It did not. I don’t see what he said as necessarily inconsistent with all of that.

  155. BRT says:

    talk to an actual medical professional Pumps, they are all done with it. Move on…it’s over.

  156. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jim, should she have abandoned disruptive innovation and started buying up energy stocks and commodities? Asking for a friend.

    Otherwise, there was no where to run and nowhere to hide. If you were in her funds, you should have sold if you can’t handle the downturn. Blaming her is for the f/ing weak. Own it.

    And ark should never be 100% of your investing position. It should be the hot sauce that accompanies your protein. So the loss should not be bothering you, if it does, you are too invested.

    Jim says:
    May 24, 2022 at 10:14 am
    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2022 at 8:52 am
    Cathie Wood has been saying this since end of last year in her argument that inflation will become deflation. So far, looks like she is dead on. She was just early to the game.

    When do you think Cathie goes bankrupt? All new lows today, innovative my ass. Loser like her advocate. She can sure pick the losers .So far she is dead on!!

  157. Libturd says:

    Jim,

    Stating that there will be deflation after inflation is like saying the sun will come up tomorrow. She is hardly a clairvoyant. She is an excellent marketer to the masses. Throwing around terms like “disruptors” and “innovators,” much like our boardroom heroes spew out the latest business buzzwords such as “Artificial Intelligence” and “Hyper-Personalization.” Oh, and my favorite, “Thought Leadership!” I’m not surprised Mr. I made the right call on housing (without foreseeing the Pandemic), would fall for it. I’m waiting for him to start hawking crypto right before it’s collapse.

    Wasn’t crypto supposed to be a bit of a hedge to a collapsing market, like a replacement to gold?

  158. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Simply pointing out that it is indeed a lottery. Some people are f/ed with long covid. You don’t care, and that’s fine.

    BRT says:
    May 24, 2022 at 10:33 am
    talk to an actual medical professional Pumps, they are all done with it. Move on…it’s over.

  159. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is not a con artist like you are trying to portray her as. That’s weak.

    You have been investing for how long? Investing in disruptive innovation is a rollercoaster ride. Show me one innovative investment that didn’t go through many cycles of boom and bust before it made it to the promise land.

    How many times are we going to here the naysayers cry that crypto is dead every time it goes into a bust cycle? Jesus, haven’t these bears realized this yet? They are just as ignorant as the permabulls that think the bull cycle will go into infinite. Crypto is not going away…no way, no how. It’s been over 14 years and how many cycles already?

    Libturd says:
    May 24, 2022 at 10:39 am
    Jim,

    Stating that there will be deflation after inflation is like saying the sun will come up tomorrow. She is hardly a clairvoyant. She is an excellent marketer to the masses. Throwing around terms like “disruptors” and “innovators,” much like our boardroom heroes spew out the latest business buzzwords such as “Artificial Intelligence” and “Hyper-Personalization.” Oh, and my favorite, “Thought Leadership!” I’m not surprised Mr. I made the right call on housing (without foreseeing the Pandemic), would fall for it. I’m waiting for him to start hawking crypto right before it’s collapse.

  160. No One says:

    Keep in mind that the “One China Policy” was a creation of crook Nixon and his immoral henchman Kissinger designed to kiss the ass of mass murderer Mao. Prior to that the US had a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and ships sailing in the Taiwan straights.
    Kissinger probably thought he was super smart coming up with a policy that could be interpreted however you want to, and then he subsequently made millions as an influencer promoting China’s interests above that of the US. Chinese definitely love Kissinger and Nixon more than Americans have.

  161. Phoenix says:

    . China wants that island because they will have total control over the semiconductors. If China owns the semiconductors market, we are f/ed.

    Pumps, Taiwan could destroy that facility easily- it would probably not survive should the Chinese attack. Only one company in Europe makes that equipment.

    It’s not likely they would be taking over anything other than the island itself.

  162. Phoenix says:

    LIb
    Good comment.
    BTW went over your comment the other day with my kid. Had her read it. TY.

  163. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, and that’s the only reason they haven’t made a move on it yet. They are trying to bully us into giving it up without a fight. People like 3b agree with them. Let that sink in.

    Phoenix says:
    May 24, 2022 at 10:47 am
    . China wants that island because they will have total control over the semiconductors. If China owns the semiconductors market, we are f/ed.

    Pumps, Taiwan could destroy that facility easily- it would probably not survive should the Chinese attack. Only one company in Europe makes that equipment.

    It’s not likely they would be taking over anything other than the island itself.

  164. No One says:

    Grim,
    Yes, maybe the US can make lots more semiconductors. That would be a much more useful trillions of capital investment than weak sources of energy like windmills and solar. A boom in Semiconductors and Nuclear would be a much more robust way of creating solid economic foundations. If it was a huge priority like the “space race” it would probably still take ten or more years.

    But building successful semiconductor manufacturing appears to be harder than it sounds. China has been dumping huge sums of money and surely also spying like crazy and they are still years behind in semi manufacturing capability, despite making it a national priority.

  165. The Great Pumpkin says:

    DNA holding up lovely in this latest down trend. Rest of market getting slapped, but this is holding it’s own. It’s actually green. Really think this is the bottom for DNA in the 2s. You never know with a volatile stock like this, but seems like the low 2’s 2 weeks ago was the bottom.

  166. Phoenix says:

    Umm, no

    My guess is Taiwan would destroy it themselves should China attack. Regardless of US interfering I don’t think Taiwan will leave that operational should the Chinese advance.

    Then what “control” will they have exactly?

  167. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You want to know what would make schools great? Parents that did their job and held their kids accountable. But keep blaming the teachers out of biased hate…

    Too many parents are afraid to be parents. They defend their kids even when the kid is wrong. They allow the kids to turn into lazy individuals. When their kid fails, they bully the teacher into raising the grade. Great parents!

    “We could be building labs in our colleges and universities or improving primary school curriculums, but schools don’t really contribute like wealthy LLC owners. Sure, the public sector unions will spend millions of dollars on particular candidates, but that’s not to improve schools. That’s to protect their compensation.”

  168. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Thanks for the history shout out here. Many twists and turns and failures and successes in those 23 years…”

    https://twitter.com/jeffbezos/status/1528922782007930880?s=21&t=8f-qAvAmIREMFkxsjaNB7Q

    Bezos let them know.

    “You have been investing for how long? Investing in disruptive innovation is a rollercoaster ride. Show me one innovative investment that didn’t go through many cycles of boom and bust before it made it to the promise land.”

  169. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I would imagine this is why china hasn’t attacked yet…Why else?

    Phoenix says:
    May 24, 2022 at 10:57 am
    Umm, no

    My guess is Taiwan would destroy it themselves should China attack. Regardless of US interfering I don’t think Taiwan will leave that operational should the Chinese advance.

    Then what “control” will they have exactly?

  170. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s why I love WSJ. Finally, a media piece that gives credit where it is due. It’s not blaming covid or remote work, it’s blaming what is actually responsible for the price increases and why it will be so difficult to have a crash…demand outweighs supply. Simple as that.

    “This time, America’s red-hot housing market threatens to make the Fed’s job tougher. With so many buyers competing for so few available properties, home prices in the U.S. rose 18.8% last year, according to a home-price index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic that measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-searches-for-the-magic-number-to-cool-a-red-hot-u-s-housing-market-11653402996?mod=hp_lead_pos5

  171. Libturd says:

    I took the same chart I made back in February and opened it up more to the left so you can see how historically overvalued our market got. Remember, the market should go up 8% a year. My father, another astute investor told me this in 1980! The returns been better as of late (10%), but that’s with the current record bull run as part of the equation.

    Since 2006 (when the market had been nearing the the end of the bull run after the 1999/2000 Tech bubble peak/valley) the Nas is now up 400%. At a return of 10% a year, the market will double ever 7 year (the rule of 72). So the Nasdaq at current levels should be up 200%. Which means we are a little over halfway through the correction (if you believe markets now go up 10% a year).

    Now the Dow and S&P are a different story. At current levels, they are up around 200% since 2006 which is where they should be traditionally. But there are a few variables at play. First, the market has been juiced since 2008 with all kinds of incentives. Then there’s all of the debt we’ve taken on. We are taking those incentives away. Especially, the low cost of borrowing. I would expect the market to fall a lot further due to this. Not Nasdaq further, but my gut tells me probably another 10% if things stay orderly. That’s the real question.

    Now it’s time for some real face ripping bounces. Not two day bounces, but two week head fakes, both ways (end of war in Russia, fear of start of war in Thailand (for Trump fans), announcement of recession since it takes 2 quarters of slowing and a few rate hikes for the market to digest). I’m guessing with Wall Street on vacation for the Summer, we keep dropping, but at a slower pace pretty much through the Summer. Then there will be one final “the world is ending” panic and we should be back to growing too rapidly again.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/uEheJ2QBWMyZVy3A7

  172. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “This is a market as resistant to higher interest rates as you could possibly imagine,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “This is not a market that 5% interest rates are going to scare at all.”

    And this.

    “Homeowners who refinanced their mortgages at ultralow rates have less incentive to sell, also crimping supply. Almost 98% of outstanding 30-year conventional mortgages have a rate below 5%, according to Freddie Mac.

    One indicator of market balance—the difference between the financial advantage of home buying versus renting—is starting to move against buying. At the end of last year, the ratio of U.S. home prices to rents reached its highest since 2007, according to the Dallas Fed.

    Mr. Waller, the Fed governor, and his wife, frustrated in their search, finally threw in the towel. Last month, they signed an apartment lease.”

  173. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nice breakdown, LIB.

  174. Libturd says:

    It’s all a guess, but the techs are very orderly. We are actually dropping a little faster than I expected, but the Summer will slow this down.

  175. 3b says:

    It’s BS that the thought was China would move from a communist dictatorship to free market capitalism and democracy. It was the crap sold to Americans and politicians went along with it of course for the money from big business.

  176. 3b says:

    Lib: This market is breaking down over a 3 percent FFR, that is telling. The country is awash in debt.

  177. BRT says:

    Otherwise, there was no where to run and nowhere to hide. If you were in her funds, you should have sold if you can’t handle the downturn. Blaming her is for the f/ing weak. Own it.

    You act like she’s running an index. She’s not. She’s actively managed…but with no risk management. She didn’t have to fire all her bullets like she did. It was ok to wait out the decline. She drank her own koolaid and thought it was a small pullback. A year ago, she proclaimed “I love this setup” and bought with both hands.

  178. Bystander says:

    3b,

    ..and let’s be honest about mortgage rates. The upswing was so abrupt from 3.5 to 5.5 that not even time to process. Realistically people locked in 30 year fixed 3.8 through March 15 (approx). With a 90 day lock, buyers still have 3 weeks to close. That will keep market active. You really won’t see true impact until July and August.

  179. BRT says:

    Taiwan Semiconductor already announced their plans to make a plant in Arizona. I’m pretty sure any Taiwanese company has or is developing an escape plan.

  180. BRT says:

    3b, Milton Friedman came up with that nonsense. He was dead wrong and he didn’t live to see it.

  181. 3b says:

    Bystander: I agree. I also suspect we are going to find out the housing market ain t as hot as it seems. As for the strong economy, again I would say, what kind of economy can’t handle 3 percent ffr?

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Musk…

    “USA birth rate has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years”

    “Contrary to what many think, the richer someone is, the fewer kids they have.

    I am a rare exception. Most people I know have zero or one kid.”

  183. 3b says:

    BRT: Yep, crap. What country gives away almost their entire manufacturing base across every category from the mundane all the way up, to a repressive dictatorship, only to have them challenge us and ultimately possibly destroy or at least neutralize us.

  184. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s her strategy, BRT. It would be comical if she was overly cautious, held no conviction, and started buying stage 4 companies because her stocks were going down. You can’t do that as the leader of disruptive innovation. You have to stick to your gut and know that your companies are the future. That they will grow and you are simply buying deep value. That’s how this works. She’s not buffett, she is a disruptive tech long-term investor.

    BRT says:
    May 24, 2022 at 12:26 pm
    Otherwise, there was no where to run and nowhere to hide. If you were in her funds, you should have sold if you can’t handle the downturn. Blaming her is for the f/ing weak. Own it.

    You act like she’s running an index. She’s not. She’s actively managed…but with no risk management. She didn’t have to fire all her bullets like she did. It was ok to wait out the decline. She drank her own koolaid and thought it was a small pullback. A year ago, she proclaimed “I love this setup” and bought with both hands.

  185. Libturd says:

    How’s that DCA thing going?

  186. Libturd says:

    An honest question for the board.

    Why would a crypto currency go up?

    If that’s the case? Why is it going down?

  187. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People are liquidating because of all the fear out there. Prob losing in stocks or real estate, and are now full of fear. Why else would it go down?

    Fear and euphoria are the name of the game. When fear leaves the market, people like to take more risk and chase higher growth. When euphoria leaves the market, people like to take less risk and stop chasing growth.

    It really is as simple as this.

    Libturd says:
    May 24, 2022 at 1:09 pm
    An honest question for the board.

    Why would a crypto currency go up?

    If that’s the case? Why is it going down?

  188. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s not easy to do, but in all honesty, the big winners of tomorrow are DCA into high growth “chit companies” as we speak. No one knows the bottom, but these stocks have been beaten into a coma.

    Again, I’m still not buying, I am gambling for it to go lower. Smarter individuals are not trying to find the bottom and have started to buy the fire sale.

    Libturd says:
    May 24, 2022 at 1:08 pm
    How’s that DCA thing going?

  189. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How’s the savings from remote work working out? Now you know why I was saying it’s contributing to inequality. You laughed it off, but the lemmings will keep driving up cheap locations thanks to remote work. Cheer it on, 3b! Cheer it on. The savings!! You still haven’t learned at your age that there is no free ride.

    “If you think you’re going to cut home-buying demand, just instantly, by raising rates, that works so much better when someone was looking in San Francisco and had to stay there,” said Glenn Kelman, chief executive at Redfin. “But when mortgage rates go from 3% to 4% to 5%, people can just go from San Francisco to Ohio, to Arkansas, to Louisiana.”

  190. Boomer Remover says:

    Fear Greed Index hit 9 today. Nine. We all know at some point it will start heading up. I am here for the face ripper rally, am I early? Thinking of buying some QQQ.

  191. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “By contrast, the last time the Fed raised rates in a sustained fashion, between 2004 and 2006, tighter money initially did little to slow housing because lenders drastically eased their standards to welcome more buyers, inflating a housing bubble that burst in 2007.

    Mr. Waller, the Fed governor, said he doesn’t see such housing-market trouble ahead. “The demand is permanently there,” he said. “The supply hasn’t caught up.””

  192. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One more for you, 3b. Good luck with a major bust.

    “Home builders have increased production but are hamstrung by volatile material costs, supply-chain troubles and shortages of skilled tradespeople and available land. “The Fed is determined to put out this fire,” Douglas Bauer, chief executive at Nevada-based home builder Tri Pointe Homes Inc., told analysts last month. “But there is just no supply.”

    For the decade following the 2007-2009 recession, new-home construction in the U.S. slowed. The homeowner vacancy rate has since fallen to 0.8%, the lowest in 66 years of record-keeping. The rental vacancy rate is near its lowest level since 1984. At the end of April, 1.03 million homes were listed for sale nationally, equal to a 2.2-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a historical average of 5.7 months for that time of year, according to NAR.”

  193. Ex says:

    Geeeezus pumpkin what’re doing man!?!

  194. 3b says:

    50 days comment free.

  195. Ex says:

    1:09 i dunno, all my money has been tied up in Beanie Babies for the past 40 years.

  196. crushednjmillenial says:

    Libturd at 1:09 . . .

    With respect to BTC, it is a commodity that is perfectly inelastic. Simply, no additional demand can be created in response to supply. 21M coins and that’s it. This is unlike gold, oil or diamonds – with these assets, there is elasticity – more mining activity occurs in response to price increases. Theoretically, a perfectly inelastic good would be your best hedge against inflation. If inflation is created by money printing, then BTC would “go up” and increase in value as denominated in nominal dollars.

    Finally, on going up, BTC might one day become THE safe haven – the asset to flee to rather than constantly-eroding USD.

    Parenthetically, in addition to being inelastic, BTC has some utility – you can transfer value to another person outside of the mainstream financial system and without an intermediary.

    Why isn’t BTC going up right now? Either:

    (1) BTC is speculative garbage and it will never be the inflation hedge that some believe. Indeed, it may go to zero.
    (2) Right now, BTC is being treated by the market as a speculative asset, but it may in the future transition to becoming an inflation hedge. One day, it may begin trading with different correlations than currently. Personally, if that ever happens then I believe it would be very bullish for BTC prices because it would be an indication that BTC may actually be here to stay.

    Finally, I’d imagine every investor in BTC has some expectation that it may go to zero. Even people holding a heavy percentage of their net worth in this should recognize that there is a $0 case for it. However, the above is a concise bull case. If BTC value equals value of gold, I believe that a coin needs to hit $1,000,000/coin or so. Or, maybe it is 2X gold would be $1m/coin.

    As for other cryptos, they have different attributes so they mostly should correlate more-closely with growth tech.

  197. crushednjmillenial says:

    ^meant to type “no additional supply can be created in response to additional demand”

  198. crushednjmillenial says:

    I typed a long thing about smart contracts and de-fi potential winners but it either went into spam or I mis-clicked send.

    Short answer on these: if one invests in the coin of the eventual winner of either of these spaces or another crypto space that will actually have utility, one would expect the price to go up.

    Of the $1.3T of crpyto market cap right now, certainly hundreds of B’s will go to zero. Inevitably. However, it is possible that there are winners in existence right now that will create good returns.

  199. Libturd says:

    Thanks Crushed. I really appreciate it.

    I think it’s greatest value is in being able to hide transactions from the government. Like a Swiss Bank account. Sadly, such necessity usually is related to illegal activities, as was the case with the Swiss Banks when they were interrogated and researched back when Obama was trying to shut them down. Of course, the Swiss Bankers had already paid off our secretary of state, so they revealed very little and were fined a pittance.

    I really appreciate the sense check on it.

  200. JCer says:

    BRT, Friedman made a lot of sense about a lot of things but out engagement with the Chinese was always a “rigged game”. The average Chinese citizen never got to taste “freedom”, western dollars enriched a corrupt party elite, intimidation and control were used to keep people compliant. Uncle Milty was under the impression that if the Chinese had a taste of capitalism they ultimately would look like Taiwan or Hong Kong.

    The semiconductor issue with Taiwan is quite simple, the expertise and materials need to be evacuated and facilities built in the US to make up for the lost capacity. Really Intel, Samsung and IBM are right behind TSMC. If you bring the employees nothing they had in Taiwan couldn’t be replicated in the US. The Chinese haven’t invaded Taiwan for the fear that they’d be embarrassed, It’s not an easy island to invade and likely what they’d end up with is a burned up island. From and economic perspective they need the Taiwanese, and given what’s happened in HK, I expect most Taiwanese to become refugees rather than live in an occupied Taiwan.

    Amazon on their warehouses…..easier said than done, who will they sublease to? They had very specific facilities built for their model of business which isn’t necessarily well suited to other retailers and lease cancelation, they will pay a pretty penny because again long term leases built to suit.

  201. 3b says:

    Jcer: Friedman should have known comparing China with over one billion people to Taiwan and Hong Kong was makes no sense. The population of the latter two are ethnically homogeneous and only a fraction of the population compared to China. There is simply no way to rule the country and keep it together with a democratic system in place.

  202. Jim says:

    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-market-showing-signs-of-correction-what-buyers-sellers-need-to-know/

    After the rates go up 5-6 points more people may start smartening up, the bidding wars in Western Morris County are through the roof.
    Lets see if Powell has the balls that Paul Volckert had. Somehow I think Powell will chicken out, if he doesn’t real estate will completely tank. I just can’t see anyone here paying 16% ,it will make men out of the boys and village idiots become mute.

  203. No One says:

    Any arbitrarily created asset can be said to have some possible value. But based on what economic value offered? It’s the typical bubble argument. As far as I can tell the only possible utility in my life for bitcrap is to pay off criminals or hackers anonymously. Seems the most common use case is to serve as a zero yield token for speculation that actually has storage and maintenance expenses, so really it’s negative yield I think.

    Someone let me know when there’s something actually positive in my life that bitcrap will help me do. Gambling and paying ransom I don’t consider positive values. Otherwise I will continue to lump it in with bubbles/pyramids/mlm/gambling. I don’t see the distributed ledger as an optimal solution to any problems.

    Pumpkin’s arsehole is in limited supply but that’s no reason to invest in it.
    I see bitcrap enthusiasts promoting the asset with the argument of “limited supply, tick tick tick, your time is running out to get in” which is just another “buy now or be priced out forever” momentum urgency marketing scam. At least you get a house when you buy into that. What do I get when I buy a “scarce” bitcrap? Another password to remember so I can check later if my roulette spin paid off?

    People would be better off debating the best CD deposit rate or the credit card with the most benefits than watching screens of tokens zooming up and down for unknown reasons. Like Cathie’s kids, the majority of bubble investment ends up lossmaking.

  204. Bystander says:

    Newtown 2. 14 kids killed and 1 teacher in TX. Seriously, f*ck the right and their guns don’t kill people bullshite. When is enough..enough. Take away the man-childrens toys…god help us.

  205. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crushed,

    I’m not in bitcoin, but ETH. If ETH 2.0 ever comes, it should be a winner. So many uses.

    Bitcoin could go to zero, but it has way better odds of going to 1 million.

    Face it, people, this technology is not going away. I don’t believe in all the bs coins, but ETH and Bitcoin are def here to stay. They have a purpose now, and it doesn’t matter that you think it’s useless.

  206. leftwing says:

    “I took the same chart I made back in February and opened it up more to the left so you can see how historically overvalued our market got.”

    https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

    Notwithstanding the above I’ve dipped a toe into a couple situations…starter positions, leveraged, defined risk.

  207. Libturd says:

    I told my son he was completely wasting his time protesting these shootings. He’d be better off wearing a bullet proof vest to school. If you want to get something done, it has to be at the ballot box. And since the two shitty parties make it impossible for a third party to be viable through the electoral college, then you are wasting your times. The gun companies and the NRA own both parties. Regardless of what each party says is their position.

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2018/02/21/school-walkouts-planned-across-new-jersey-students-say-never-again-shootings/360418002/

  208. Hold my beer says:

    Elementary schools are more vulnerable too in Texas. Our district has its own police force, plus the town cops patrol the school parking lots too. The cops assigned to elementary schools visit/patrol 4 or 5 schools a day. Meanwhile There’s at least one cop assigned to each intermediate and middle school with at least 3 in each high school. There probably 5 to 8 in each high school the last week of school and before each long vacation. Kids are not allowed to bring backpacks and gym bags to school the last week of the year too.

  209. Libturd says:

    Left, I’m close to beginning to scale back in. Can’t be too greedy. Waiting for that 11K number to bust before the first 10% I removed back in November goes back in. Even Buffet has employed 30% of his dry powder. He understands risk too.

  210. Bystander says:

    Hey let’s focus on the left..and Biden..and the single poor Goldman victim that Faux News and NY Com-post want to highlight as liberal crime problem. Insane.

  211. 3b says:

    Jim Bill Ackman says the market is collapsing because the Fed is not doing what it needs to be doing, which is raising rates aggressively, claims they are too timid. He goes on to state the Fed is not doing their job and says the Fed needs to tell the markets it will do whatever it takes to beat inflation.

  212. 3b says:

    New Home sales fall 16.6 percent last month from the revised March figures, over 26 percent down from April 2021.

  213. Bystander says:

    Hold,

    It is sign of sick society and soulless conservative party that you need that kind of protection bc you won’t take guns away. More cops and more guns in school help right? I even heard a disgusting insane education secretary claim such nonsense a few years ago.

  214. Libturd says:

    Shelter in place baby. That’s the best we can come up with. I told my son to jump out the nearest window and run like the wind if he here’s a shelter in place alert and gun shots simultaneously.

  215. Hold my beer says:

    Bystander

    I think the cops are there mainly for gangs, drug dealers, and brawls. That’s why they are assigned to schools with 6th graders and higher. There’s always been at least 3 in the cafeteria in my kid’s high school during breakfast and lunch since that’s when most of the fights happen.

  216. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They will never give up that right. Doesn’t matter how many people die. It is what it is.

    Pandemic did a number on people’s mental health. Between crazy trump making them angry, to people sitting alone at home all day reading social media. Recipe for some broken depressed/angry individuals. You have to get outside and socialize. You have to find a purpose in life, or you will end up crazy.

    Bystander says:
    May 24, 2022 at 4:55 pm
    Newtown 2. 14 kids killed and 1 teacher in TX. Seriously, f*ck the right and their guns don’t kill people bullshite. When is enough..enough. Take away the man-childrens toys…god help us.

  217. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m tempted to jump back in too…I don’t want to see a face ripper after it bottoms.

    Like you said, already won, don’t want to risk giving it back. Will be thinking about this and what to do.

    Libturd says:
    May 24, 2022 at 5:04 pm
    Left, I’m close to beginning to scale back in. Can’t be too greedy. Waiting for that 11K number to bust before the first 10% I removed back in November goes back in. Even Buffet has employed 30% of his dry powder. He understands risk too.

  218. Jim says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2022 at 6:04 pm
    I’m tempted to jump back in too…I don’t want to see a face ripper after it bottoms.

    With all your profits from Cathie? Your always good for a Laugh Pumps. I still laugh at your prediction of deflation, which happens after inflation….wizard.

  219. BRT says:

    How on Earth did everyone suddenly wake up and realize SNAP is a shitco? It’s been one for what 8 years?

  220. BRT says:

    Lib, they basically gave us to use our discretion and evacuate if we think it’s the better option. Of course, I would have never waited for someone to give me permission I. The first place.

  221. BRT says:

    JCer, I liked Friedman on most of his issues. But Ross Perot had the only sensitive idea that tariffs can gradually be reduced when a country clearly commits to increasing the wealth and quality of life of their workers…and in China’s case, we probably should have put a lot more conditions on it.

  222. Phoenix says:

    Cops in schools too busy trying to hook up with young teachers.

  223. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That 7k I lost with Cathie made me a ton of money, esp when you account for future compounding in the 401k. Don’t worry about me, I’m good. How much money did you make in the past 5 months tough guy? (Here comes some made up bs by the tough guy)

    BTW, no shit deflation follows inflation. Most people think inflation is out of control and will continue for years. Tell me who else besides myself has been screaming that the real battle is with deflation over the past year.

    Jim says:
    May 24, 2022 at 6:15 pm
    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2022 at 6:04 pm
    I’m tempted to jump back in too…I don’t want to see a face ripper after it bottoms.

    With all your profits from Cathie? Your always good for a Laugh Pumps. I still laugh at your prediction of deflation, which happens after inflation….wizard

  224. BRT says:

    We have a class 3 and a former chief of police. They are great. And they did stop a deranged adult intruder this year.

  225. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You mean like how they watch me break up fights? Excuse: if they get involved they have to arrest them.

    Phoenix says:
    May 24, 2022 at 6:40 pm
    Cops in schools too busy trying to hook up with young teachers.

  226. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Inflation is declining big time. Look at the yearly inflation number and then the current trajectory.

    May 2021 -> May 2022 = ~8%
    April 2022 -> May 2022 = annualized rate of 4%

  227. Jim says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 24, 2022 at 6:43 pm
    That 7k I lost with Cathie made me a ton of money, esp when you account for future compounding in the 401k. Don’t worry about me, I’m good. How much money did you make in the past 5 months tough guy? (Here comes some made up bs by the tough guy)

    Just my normal income , down over $50,000 in stock market. could have been a lot worse but I bought a lot of oil stocks end of December. Of course your good your a public worker , on the dole, with Grammy giving you a multi. LOL Oh and by the way I will be getting $340,000 in 3 weeks from another multi unit sale. I gotta say , you are one fuckin jerk.

  228. LurksMcGee says:

    I’ve been eavesdropping on this site for a few years now and I FINALLY see the irrefutable evidence of Pumpkin being the village troll. In all honesty, he’s more like a heel and provides opportunities to get everyone riled up and baited in.

    Also, I’m really proud of 3b. He needs like a sobriety coin for sticking with it.

  229. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Where’s the love?

    It’s not easy being a troll. Get no love…

  230. RentL0rd says:

    All you people who do not support stricter gun laws should be ashamed of yourself today.

    I have lived in two red states before moving to NJ and will never move back to one.

  231. RentL0rd says:

    Also, can’t wait for the likes of Farty Eddie to leave to redneck states like TN.

  232. Ex says:

    There’s a blurring of the whole north / south thing in many big S.E. cities these days.
    Lot’s of fancy pants Yankees working for the big banks & auto mfgs. Nice places.
    Still have humidity to contend with, but at least you have plenty of water.

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