Just wait until rents follow…

From Fortune:

Mortgage rates hit 6.3%—the real cost to buy a house has officially spiked over 50% in just 6 months

Heading into the year, Fannie Mae predicted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate would climb from 3.1% to 3.3% by the end of 2022. The Mortgage Bankers Association was a bit more bullish for mortgage rates, predicting the average rate would rise to 4% by the end of 2022

At the time, Ali Wolf, chief economist of Zonda, told Fortune that “the impact of rising interest rates depends on where they land. If [mortgage] rates approach 4% before the end of the year, there will be a notable downshift in housing demand…If mortgage interest rates gradually rise throughout the year, allowing home sellers to price their homes accordingly, then the shock to the system will be less noticeable.”

Fast-forward to today, and it’s clear that neither Fannie Mae’s forecast nor the Mortgage Bankers Association’s prediction was anywhere close to reality. Instead, we’ve tipped over into what Wolf deems the “shock to the system” category. 

As of Tuesday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped to 6.28%—up from 5.3% just a month ago. That marks the highest mortgage rate since 2008. The 3.2 percentage point jump in mortgage rates over the past year also marks the biggest upward swing since 1981.

If a homebuyer took out a $400,000 mortgage in June 2021 at the then average fixed rate of 3.1%, they’d owe $1,708 per month. At a 6.28% rate, that principal and interest payment comes out to $2,471. However, that’s assuming the home didn’t change in value. Now let’s say that home jumped 20%—the latest reading for year-over-year home price growth—in value. That ups the mortgage to $480,000. At a 6.28% rate, a $480,000 mortgage comes out to a $2,965 principal and interest payment. That’s quite a jump.

Since April, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has been telling Fortune this would happen. What we’ve entered into isn’t just a housing slowdown. Instead, Zandi says, it’s a full-blown “housing correction.” Over the coming 12 months, Moody’s Analytics forecasts the year-over-year rate of home price growth will plummet from 20% to 0%, while significantly “overvalued” housing markets like Boise and Atlanta could see home prices drop 5% to 10%. (Moody’s Analytics estimates 183 regional housing markets are “overvalued” by more than 25% relative to what local economic fundamentals would historically support.) 

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176 Responses to Just wait until rents follow…

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. leftwing says:

    Son-of-a-bitch…now firmly convinced dd is an algo. Or alter-ego of grim…

  3. leftwing says:


    “And Left, I think a lot of our differences are semantics…You know on J6, I knew exactly what you meant when you said you wanted to frame a picture of the insurrection and hang it on your wall.”

    Thank you.

    “Though I was adamantly against the crowds attempt to delay the certification of the election…But bust some windows in the Capitol Building and it’s a whole different story.”

    Agree on that too. And also agree on the difficulty of time constrained communication by text rather than person. I occasionally regret when I hit the ‘Post’ button because I have a habit of using the generic ‘you’ which I fear often sounds highly personal when not intended as such. Grim needs an edit button, lol.

    “There are some really intelligent and insightful people on this blog regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum. That’s the reason I come here. Great discussions and thought provoking comments.”

    Very much agree. Appreciate you guys.

  4. Trick says:

    Back to Phoenix’s point yesterday, previous owner of our house bought in 2004 and sold it to us in 2012 for 100K l0ss. Market value is now 200k over our purchase price, no way it stays up there.

  5. 3b says:

    And as expected the relief rally is over, and now the worry, that the Fed does another 75 bp hike in July and more after that. Maybe we are finally getting back to a real semblance of a market, and not the sham market we have had.

  6. 3b says:

    Left: 75 days today Sir. I expect the onslaught and full frontal assault to continue.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    “There are some really intelligent and insightful people on this blog regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum.

    And good-looking. ;)

  8. leftwing says:

    3b, hang in their brother!

    “75 days Pumpkin-free”

    Housing starts down 14.4% vs. 2.6% est…….

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are completely lost in the wind. You think this is a repeat of 1970s? Are you insane? Stop reading the experts that claim this is a repeat of the 1970s. It’s not.

    If you think housing is going to go down here in northern nj, I have a bridge to nowhere for sale? Interested?

    3b says:
    June 16, 2022 at 8:09 am
    Your comment that you don’t expect housing to go down here was the same comment I heard 30 years ago, and guess what it did, and hard.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    *Go down hard here in northern nj….

    Understand markets. Where is the inventory going to come from for a massive dive in prices? Who is going to supply it?

    And please don’t run a victory lap on super low volume price drops. They are not real. That’s a few people buying a cheap house, it does not represent a real market. Again, sales are going to tank and volume of sales will be almost non existent the higher rates go.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ahh, decreasing inventory means massive price drops? That’s 14% less housing being built now.

    leftwing says:
    June 16, 2022 at 8:34 am
    3b, hang in their brother!

    “75 days Pumpkin-free”

    Housing starts down 14.4% vs. 2.6% est…….

  12. 3b says:

    Left: You too Sir!! 75 days !!

  13. Bruiser says:

    30 years ago was the 1990’s, Pumpkin

  14. Libturd says:

    Libturd, channeling Joshua says:
    June 14, 2022 at 1:32 pm
    NYC Director,

    Be very careful here. Even if Powell raises .75, the market might read it as a things are much worse than they appear. A week ago, the odds of a .75 point increase was 93% according to CME Group. If he goes 1 point, you are a dead man. If he keeps it at .5, it will be a short-lived bounce. So what are the odds of each?

    “A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”
    Looking at the premarket numbers, looks like experience wins yet again.

    We are somewhere between fear and depression now. I still think we’ll hit panic (blood in the streets) in late August early September.


  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why are you comparing the 1990s to today? It has nothing to do with it.

    Only guy that gets it on this blog so far. Dream on if you think north jersey is going to get destroyed in pricing.

    “The housing will be mildly down this time in our neck of the woods. Will go back to 2019 market. We didn’t double/triple home values, and yet in recessionary times, closer to the city more job opportunities rise . Compared to remote, or less populated destinations. Recession will be milder for the metro area. Will be devastating in south and in the country.”- Njtownhomer

    Bruiser says:
    June 16, 2022 at 8:55 am
    30 years ago was the 1990’s, Pumpkin

  16. Grim says:

    Still waiting for the Putin death rally.

    Can I bet on that in Vegas? Headed there next week.

  17. Libturd says:

    Schwab Hidden Fees: $187 Million Penalty For Intelligent Portfolios Robo-Advisor

    Another slap on the wrist for atrocious behavior by a Wall Street firm.


    Yet we keep bailing them all out, every time they fuck up and lose your money. Of course, you don’t get your money back. But most of them get to keep their jobs so they can fuck up again and lose the next fool’s nest egg.

  18. Libturd says:


    What are you doing in Vegas?

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And understand the demand is still there….the fed just artificially shut it off for the time being by raising rates drastically in a short period. The FED isn’t looking for growth, they are looking to shut it down till inflation checks to their needs. The minute they reverse, you are going to see price gains again. People still need housing. There were 70 offers coming in on houses. They will be back when the FED says it’s time to buy again.

    This isn’t 2007 which was driven by artificial demand….pure flippers. Buying this month to sell the following month. This is not that kind of market. This was demand driven and not enough supply to feed it. Demographics matter.

  20. Grim says:


  21. Libturd says:

    Anyone who bought Bitcoin at any time after 12/23/2020 would have been better off buying the Nasdaq. That’s even after the current bloodbath in the index.

  22. Libturd says:

    Have fun. Let me know if you are interested in anything really cool to do or eat or drink, when you are out there. Vegas is my second home. Soon to be my first.

  23. Phoenix says:


  24. 3b says:

    Lib: I read an article where a guy had 100k tied up in one of those digital companies going under. He can’t get the money out. He is a widowed Father with 2 young kids; it was his house money. Sad.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    DOW currently at 29,913.04. A psychological moment for sure. Don’t fear, it’s transitory. Now, onto that Russian collusion investigation!! I mean, that ‘Democracy Hanging in the Balance’ investigation!!

  26. Fast Eddie says:


    “I read an article where a guy had 100k tied up in one of those digital companies going under.”

    It reminds me of those uber intelligent folks I work with presently and in the past who invest 100% of their 401K in the company they work for. Once and a while, I would subtly tell them that they may want to spread it in broader assets and funds. I don’t bother anymore. Investment logic alludes a lot of people.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you are playing it long-term, what does it matter? That’s the thing you don’t get about high growth. It’s volatile. If you keep your cool, it’s always higher highs and higher lows. If you want to put in work….then you try to time it for a lot of money, but it’s not easy. As high growth moves fast in either direction.

    Who loses in high growth? People that don’t have the stomach for it. People that buy high and then panic sell when it drops. If you believed in the company at the high price, you shouldn’t be selling when it drops, you should be buying more and taking advantage of the cycle.

    High growth is not for you.. it’s not for anyone that can’t handle watching the price dropping 50-90%. There are some ridiculously cheap companies out there right now…

    You are not making 10 times your money on any investment that is safe and not volatile. Volatile stocks are where the money is. You just have to sell at the top and not get greedy. So if you are buying now, next cycle, you better sell at the top when you can’t believe the gains you have made. LOCK IT UP and sell.

    Libturd says:
    June 16, 2022 at 9:24 am
    Anyone who bought Bitcoin at any time after 12/23/2020 would have been better off buying the Nasdaq. That’s even after the current bloodbath in the index.

  28. 3b says:

    Fast: Same here. I mind my own business now. The ones who know absolutely nothing are the worst. I remember about 16 or 17 years ago, someone I know spent 100k on a kitchen renovation, but said it did not matter as they would get it all back when they sell the house!

    It’s like people who thought a 20 percent price increase in houses in a year was perfectly normal. Had that with my wife’s siblings delaying on selling parents house. Told them back in February to get it on the market, now they are upset. Can’t fix stupid.

  29. Phoenix says:

    There are some ridiculously cheap companies out there right now…

    Such as?

  30. Phoenix says:

    Hand Grandma your cell phone and ask her to take a picture and send it to all of her grandchildren.

    And that’s why you don’t elect geriatric.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s you. You are wrong over and over again. You lost money on housing, and can’t even let it go. Just obsess over housing crashing because you got burned. Let it go. Go make money.

    3b says:
    June 16, 2022 at 9:53 am
    Fast: Same here. I mind my own business now. The ones who know absolutely nothing are the worst. I remember about 16 or 17 years ago, someone I know spent 100k on a kitchen renovation, but said it did not matter as they would get it all back when they sell the house

  32. Phoenix says:

    “Mr. Biden had a difficult time, he said, seeing himself as the next Lincoln or Roosevelt.”

    His last moment of sanity.

  33. Phoenix says:

    “Biden Sr. later became a successful used-car salesman”

    Like father, like son.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Your tax dollars hard at work:

    “An elementary school thought it was serving milk to students. Turns out it was floor sealant.”

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are out there. Just remember, there are also a lot of zombie companies that will die. So buy good ones like DNA. Buy ETh in crypto.

    BEAM, TWST, and SANA all should go off in biotech’s next cycle.

    Coin will go off next crypto cycle.

    A lot of new names will come about in the next year. Just don’t be afraid to buy when you find a good one. Remember, your risk is cut down drastically during a bear market. The market destroyed the risk. Bull markets are where all the risk is. They have nowhere to go but down after a bull run.

    Phoenix says:
    June 16, 2022 at 9:54 am
    There are some ridiculously cheap companies out there right now…

    Such as?

  36. 3b says:

    Average mortgage 30 year mortgage rates hit 5.78, highest since 2008. Onward to 7 percent and higher.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    FATE, KYMR, EXAI, NTLA, BPMC, RLAY- some more companies with huge potential.

    PLTR and PATH are some other ones that might be good buys now.

    Remember, these are all high growth…aka highly volatile. If you can’t stomach looking at 50% loss that might turn into a 1000% gain, do not get involved. Stick to dividend paying stocks or safe plays like home depot. You won’t make much money, but you won’t have to stomach a rollercoaster ride that you can’t handle.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And I can’t stress it enough…..I’m only playing one crypto and it’s ETH. Whenever it bottoms, buy it up. It has a ton of potential and the new ETH 2.o platform should be here shortly. So much upside potential with this.

  39. Juice Box says:

    AI4 Grim!

    Say hello the the Robots, hope that story about the sentient google chatbot is true, no more customer service reps ever…

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I wonder how many americans realize we are in an economic war with Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia right now?

  41. Bruiser says:

    Pumpkin, you were responding to 3B, who was talking about comments they headd 30 years ago. Your response was referencing the 1970’s.

    Screw it. I forgot how terrible you were for this site, and why I stop coming here.

  42. Phoenix says:

    Everyone bragging America has plenty of it’s own oil.

    So, drill for your own and mind your own business. (if you truly believe it)

  43. Libturd says:

    Just skip his posts.

    I’ve gone back to that.

  44. Phoenix says:

    Goes around the world “spreading democracy.”

    Did you ever think that what you are spreading someone else doesn’t want, or is America too arrogant?

    It’s mental thinking that America was going to change the minds of Afghans. Just leave them alone. They are happy doing what they do, have been doing it for thousands of years.

    And dear Americans, you can bomb a place as much as you like-but if you want to take it over you need to occupy it. And if no one wants you there, both sides hate you for sticking your nose where it doesn’t belong.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He wasn’t referencing the 1990s….if he was, I DON’T KNOW WHY. High mortgage rates were not a characteristic of the 90s….they were considered “cheap” since the previous two decades were much higher. So I ask, what do the 90’s have to do with today? We are experiencing a rise in rates, and not a fall…

    And save the insults….

    Bruiser says:
    June 16, 2022 at 10:41 am
    Pumpkin, you were responding to 3B, who was talking about comments they headd 30 years ago. Your response was referencing the 1970’s.

    Screw it. I forgot how terrible you were for this site, and why I stop coming here.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You guys are a bunch of babies….this is like 9 years ago. I was screaming housing was a buy, and you guys were busy insulting me and claiming I should be ignored. So be it. I was the only one correct, yet was called the village idiot. Nice.

  47. Phoenix says:

    Few believe U.S. democracy, at least in its current state, serves as a good model for other nations. A median of just 17% say democracy in the U.S. is a good example for others to follow, while 57% think it used to be a good example but has not been in recent years. Another 23% do not believe it has ever been a good example. Americans largely share the view that their democracy is no longer a model: 72% say U.S. democracy used to be a good example for others to follow but has not been recently.

  48. Phoenix says:

    America. Still can’t make baby formula:

    Abbott has halted production once again at its Michigan plant that has been at the center of the nation’s months-long baby formula shortage crisis – this time for severe storms that flooded parts of the building.

    The facility in Sturgis, Michigan had just reopened on June 4 after being closed since February 2022 for a bacteria contamination which triggered a nationwide baby formula shortage.

    On Monday, severe thunderstorms and heavy rains swept through southwestern Michigan, flooding parts of the plant, forcing it to close once again.

  49. Phoenix says:

    When you need to have a law about something like this, you live in a very sick society.


  50. Libturd says:


    That is due to the corruption of our government which has now permeated every level of it.

    It’s in your own town council. Your DPW, your county state government, and of course every single Federal Office. It’s in your schools too. In Montclair, they are trying to float a huge bond to rebuild their crumbling schools. The town council is against it because they won’t have a say in how it is spent. The teacher’s union is against it because they want the money spent on them, not infrastructure. The BOE is for it (their idea), but it’s a bit of a conflict of interest for them to be spreading the gospel. So it is now in the hands of the PTA. Good luck convincing the taxpayers of Montclair to spend 200 million when everyone in leadership in the town but the PTA will be against it. Good times.

    And the schools are collapsing. They couldn’t third floor of the high school for like two years.

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    That is due to the corruption of our government which has now permeated every level of it.

    John Bogle preached good stewardship, among other things of human quality. Where are our good stewards?

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing,” as Churchill pointed out, “but only after they’ve tried everything else.”

    ~ John Bogle

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Teaching is slowly dying…

    “The shortage has numerous causes. Teachers earn only 78.6 cents on the dollar, compared to other college graduates, with stagnant wages over the past 20 years. Statewide, fewer people are starting programs to become teachers. There were 13 enrollees for every 1,000 students in the state in 2009, but that fell to 6 in 2018. And fewer of those enrollees are completing them – five for every 1,000 students in 2009, falling to less than three in 2017, according to a report by New Jersey Policy Perspective, a thinktank.”


  54. No One says:

    You have some insight on Putin’s lifespan?
    When will this war end and how will it end?
    If you’ve got a genuine edge in predicting that it’s worth something.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Today I’m going to sign a lease on a single wide trailer in a trailer park so that I can allocate extra $3000 per month into #Bitcoin  for the next 12 months. I’m considering selling my car as well. I am being dead serious. Few.


  56. BRT says:

    If going gaga for tech stocks and watching them drop 85% from the peak wasn’t enough to humble his ego, there’s nothing that will.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “Perhaps, if we hadn’t spent the previous 40 years telling businesses that every downturn will be followed by a decade-long loss in demand, they wouldn’t have responded to the pandemic by slashing supply, only to get caught flat-footed by the speed of the rebound.”


  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The more I read these panicked articles about places like NYC and San Francisco being ‘unsafe’, the more I realize it’s not about crime at all – just discomfort with poverty being more visible


  59. 3b says:

    Bruiser: Welcome back.

  60. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Regarding stealth ing, can’t my hands around it. Why would the man do it and take that chance. How do you do it while you do it ? Out and back in? I will stop there on that one. How do you prove it, by either the man or the woman? How do you know if one or the other set the other person up? Boggles the mind!

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t see how the FED doesn’t start reversing in 2023. Raising rates through 2023….yea right. Give me a laugh. Everything is already turning, from the housing market to the labor market. Just need oil to drop. That’s prob my signal for when you should start buying….when oil peaks and drops. That’s my signal that bottom is in and reversal on its way.


  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Looks like I nailed it on my WFH call. That it was a signal of an anomaly with the labor market being in a bubble. From that wsj link. Any questions, 3b?

    “Fears of an economic downturn are shaking some people’s career confidence, driving them toward stable jobs—and even back to offices”

    “Becca Smith will be back to work in no time.

    Laid off from her sales position at a startup a couple of weeks ago, she says she’s received more than a dozen inquiries from recruiters in response to a LinkedIn post about her job loss.

    Yet something has changed since the 40-year-old Indiana mother started at her former employer last summer. Back then, she was determined to work from home—and felt sure she could get her way. She also had the confidence to join a fledgling business amid a roaring economy.

    No more.

    “I will give priority to larger, more-established companies for this job search,” says Ms. Smith, whose old company was venture-funded and cut about one-third of the team to conserve cash. She adds she’ll consider reporting to an office part time. She’d also like her next job to involve selling a product customers need even in bad times, rather than a luxury that could get cut from the budget when money is short.”

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Village idiot strikes again..

    “It’s a strange limbo. Working conditions are about as good as they’ve ever been for many people, and office workers’ complaints can seem petty by historical standards. (Imagine your 2019 self griping about being required to work in an office a few days a month.) Yet a loss of total remote freedom, coupled with sobering economic forecasts, can make it feel like workers’ power is slipping away.

    Some companies sense the change and are wresting back more control over how much they cater to employees.

    Boston Properties Chief Executive Owen Thomas says his tenants are growing bolder about office callbacks. The national office occupancy rate hit 44% last week, according to an estimate by Kastle Systems, which tracks building-access-card swipes. That’s the highest since the onset of the pandemic.

    Employers’ fear that workers will flee for other jobs if told to return to their desks is beginning to subside.”

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:


    How’s that feel? That has to sting. The person you claimed didn’t know anything because he wasn’t in corporate and only a teacher proving you wrong. It’s all good though. I just hope you own it and stop putting me down.

  65. crushednjmillenial says:

    Pumpkin . . . you’re posting some conviction buys. Have you bought or are you still waiting for further declines?

    I ask because there’s a bit of disconnect in saying something is a screaming buy but not buying.

  66. crushednjmillenial says:

    Heard a stat in passing somewhere in media, that if Germany spent the amount of money it spent on wind and solar on nuclear instead, it would currently be able to cover all electrical needs with nuclear alone. Obviously, if true, then Russia’s power over Germany would be much lower.

    If I am mis-quoting, then I apologize. Nonetheless, the scales seems sensible to me, so I could imagine that this is true.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I am waiting, but nothing wrong with buying now. Just trying to get better pricing, hope it works out. If it runs on me, lesson will be “don’t get greedy.” As soon as people are comfortable moving to buy, already missed the ultra cheapies.

  68. 3b says:

    Apparently, US officials are quietly discussing what they describe as Ukraines untenable position and Zelenky s hard line on no territory concessions by Ukraine to Russia. Biden was apparently upset by Austen and Blinken s rhetoric that the US wants Ukraine to win.

    It’s the beginning of the end for Ukraine it appears and Russia will gobble up a third or more of the country.

  69. Mike S says:

    Also I really believe it can’t hurt to start averaging in now some % each week

  70. No One says:

    This is interesting. ESG investing are getting what they asked for, good and hard.

    Harold Hamm, the billionaire fracking pioneer who helped launch the U.S. shale boom, is looking to take Continental Resources Inc. private, offering about $4.3 billion in cash to buy the portion of the company’s shares he and his family don’t already own. …
    While most of Continental’s publicly traded oil-company peers are owned by multiple institutional investors, Mr. Hamm, the 13th child of Oklahoma sharecroppers, has retained control of the company he founded in 1967, holding north of 70% of its shares even after it went public in 2007, according to FactSet. …
    In a statement to employees, Mr. Hamm said it no longer makes sense for Continental to be a publicly traded company, citing “a lack of support from the public market” for oil-and-gas companies, evident in the diminishing number of public shale companies due to acquisitions and bankruptcies, and with some going private.
    The Financial Times elaborates:
    Shale baron Harold Hamm has hardly hidden his disdain for Wall Street’s environmental, social and governance movement, considering it a leash on companies such as Continental Resources as they try to get on with the job of producing more fossil fuels.
    A climate change “religion” had gripped investors, he argued in an interview with the Financial Times last year, and companies such as European supermajor BP were about to “cut their [own] throat” by winding down oil operations under pressure to decarbonise. …
    Analysts said the move could free Continental to do what public producers have for months been told by Wall Street not to: fire up drilling rigs to capitalise on a surge in oil prices to well above $100 a barrel.
    Hamm and other public shale bosses watched as their privately held rivals sharply escalated drilling activity this year, unbothered by institutional investors insisting on scooping up their piece of the windfall.
    Executives have often seethed in private about their difficulties in persuading ESG-focused portfolio managers in long-only funds to back more oil and gas exploration.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When elon and bezos started selling core holdings, which they said they would never do, that was the signal for the top. Always easy in hindsight.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nope, as long as it’s not into oil…lol. I would not touch oil right now, it’s the value investor’s turn with the bubble. Every day oil stays high, every day the consumer tries to find another way around it. Oil will be the last to pop and the signal that bear market is over….cheaper oil will fuel the next bull run.

    Mike S says:
    June 16, 2022 at 2:16 pm
    Also I really believe it can’t hurt to start averaging in now some % each week

  73. Mike S says:

    I mean on S&P or Russell 3000 or total market

    Also nice time for some tax loss harvesting if you own a lot of ETFs…

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “Robinhood, $HOOD, marketcap is now worth less than cash on hand.”

  75. Libturd says:

    Perhaps 1% might have worked better?

  76. 3b says:

    Lib: Traders expect US inflation to be roughly 9 percent or higher over the next 4 months!! Ugly!! If so major tightening ahead as in one point increases.

    Going to be some ugly mortgage rates!!

  77. RentL0rd says:

    Peeps – Where should I look for a commercial real estate, buy or lease? Any commercial re sites to recommend?

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Since 2014, $ARKK and $BRKB Berkshire Hathaway have performed the same but ARKK has beaten it when you include the generous Dividends and Capital Gains payments. It seems impossible but that’s where we are now. I’m a fan of Berkshire and ARK but they are very different tools.”

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    DOW closes below 30K; democrats claim it’s the result of a Trump erect1on.

  80. 3b says:

    Fast: Mortgage rates this week have increased at the fastest rate since 1987!!!

  81. Fast Eddie says:


    They need to pass that ‘Build back better’ plan quick! It’s for the children!

  82. leftwing says:

    Rentlord, loopnet captures some. Find it incomplete and often outdated, but a start.

    I find the best data usually through the local mls. IDX also.

    Only used something CBRE once, but presume that is why they exist?

  83. Phoenix says:


    With the stealthing-no need to prove anything. Perfect harassment tool. Just like when the ex calls the PoPo for bull sh ite welfare checks.

    Plenty of Amber Heard types out there- you know, that “woman scorned” thing.

    The PoPo will be happy to oblige.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Might be right..

    “The treasury market has bottomed & rates will go down from here.

    Especially if the equity market continues to collapse.

    In 1987, the 10yr dropped 300 basis points the day of the crash.

    I took a shot at the bottom today and bought some $TLT calls, huge outside reversal day.”

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sucks, have to put the 30k hat away. I loved that hat.

  86. 3b says:

    Phoenix: The world has gone mad!

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crazy. Maybe stop raising the rates. Deflation anyone?

    “The Shanghai-Los Angeles freight rate is about to be negative YoY (both from making new lows and lapping the pre-spike period):”


  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Talk about huge support for the housing market not dumping. Anyone find out the % of loans under 3%?

    “US home price/income ratio – approaching prior peaks!”

    “It’s fine, black rock owns most homes now at 2% interest and I’m sure their income is great”

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Swiss National Bank selling ‘assets’ isn’t like Fed removing liquidity which propped up equity market. It means SNB SELLING STOCKS.

    Top 5 stock holdings (3/31/22) at 20.3%:

    A different kind of QT but same market result:⏬”

  90. grim says:

    $712 car payment is the average?

    What the serious fuck

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, glad to be on his side. Had no idea he was a ETH maxi. That’s the only crypto i want.


  92. crushednjmillenial says:

    I wonder if it might be that 10 years from now we look back at the Fed’s actions and actually conclude the Fed was wrong to raise rates. With higher rates, business find it more expensive to expand production, so we might have a Fed-based contribution toward us having an ongoing supply problem.

    Probably not, but the economy has a weird way of finding its way toward scenarios that have something novel to them.

  93. BRT says:

    Cancelled Asbury plans this weekend. Rumored pop up party Saturday or Sunday.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The average bear market lasts 9.6 months and falls 35%.

    We are just 6.5 months in and down 23%.

    Now throw in the most hawkish Fed in decades with 8+ rate hikes and a recession.

    How much lower does this go?”

    “If you think we are in a recession – you should be buying bonds at this point”

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:


    It’s getting close to the point, or maybe even passed, where the rate hikes are doing more damage than good. Esp since this is supply side induced inflation.

    Selfish side of me wants them to keep raising so I get better deals on stocks, but no one wants to see more pain for the avg individual.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know…i think it’s almost impossible to lose money buying now. Could it drop more? Absolutely. Does it really matter? Yea, if you are greedy and want absolute bottom. But in general, i think it’s more difficult to buy a losing stock right now than a winner. So many are undervalued on the long-term scale. So many good deals to be had. Every where you look, it’s great pricing. And if buying index…i just don’t see how you lose if you buy now and hold for next bear market.

    Now the game begins of not if you will make money…but how much money will you make? Hope you have powder.

  97. Ex says:

    Catch a falling knife!

  98. Jim says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 16, 2022 at 8:38 pm
    I don’t know…i think it’s almost impossible to lose money buying now.

    So PUMPS ,you buying and if so how much?? Or are you just being the village idiot and mouthing off again?

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “30-year yield took out the 2018 closing high today only to powerfully reverse by 25 bp. This action is called a “throw over” and often marks an important trend reversal.”

    “It means buy long duration treasury bonds. Rates have peaked, bad economic data incoming will result in a more dovish Fed going forward resulting in bond values increasing.”

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My good source on bonds…not time yet, but getting close.

    “Rabbi saying bonds are still a good short I’ll have to see if we have a position”

    “Funny my gut didn’t like the move. It did not feel like a reversal. Not a proper looking bottom at all with the equity market getting smoked at the same time. I’m waiting .”

  101. JCer says:

    The war in Ukraine was over before it started. As soon as the Russians decided to focus on the Donbas, it was over. The Ukrainian army couldn’t defeat the rebels, who basically were getting weapons and intel from the Russians.

    They are absolutely being slaughtered in the east, Zelensky is a fool, his army is losing between 500-800 soldiers a day(not the 200 they are reporting). The Russians control the skies and are gaining ground. The tide has turned, the Russians will win Doug MacGregor was right all along.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jim, do with what you want with what I share. This is not about me, I’m just trying to share valuable information on a blog.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Inevitable. Unless we step in with air support.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, if this market falls 40% -50$…saved 40-50% of said investment in 401k based on almost two decade period. That’s insane. And then get to run up with the bull and easily double it. What a ride for an avj joe. Pretty much like winning the lottery. Lucky!

  105. Libturd says:

    It’s not luck.

  106. Fabius Maximus says:

    “$712 car payment is the average?”

    Whats the default rate. Expect that to start surging.

  107. Jim says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 16, 2022 at 9:25 pm
    Jim, do with what you want with what I share. This is not about me, I’m just trying to share valuable information on a blog.

    Really, and yet you do not follow that information…what a troll! Yet you teach.

  108. 3b says:

    One bad week, and there are article out now saying the Fed should stop and now reverse. They are just getting started, and still begging the curve it appears. The Fed will do whatever it takes to kill inflation and if that means recession and a rise in unemployment they will do it.

    Sobering article over on Barrons on how the Fed may have already lost control, and might not have the tools to beat inflation.

  109. RentL0rd says:

    C’mon ppl. Prove to me that this is still a RE site and not a govt bashing cult. What are some good RE sites for biying or leasing commercial property.

  110. Juice Box says:

    Seems the Mutiny over at SpaceX did not go so well, out the airlock you go.

    Backstory some woke employees wanted them to denounce their demigod memelord’s tweets. Fools organized the munity on company chat too Microsoft Teams.

    Here is the actual demand.

    “Publicly address and condemn Elon’s harmful Twitter behavior”

    Another doozy demand.

    Define and uniformly respond to all forms of unacceptable behavior. Clearly define what exactly is intended by SpaceX’s “no-asshole” and “zero tolerance” policies and enforce them consistently. SpaceX must establish safe avenues for reporting and uphold clear repercussions for all unacceptable behavior, whether from the CEO or an employee starting their first day.


  111. Fast Eddie says:

    Poll: Biden disapproval hits new high as more Americans say they would vote for Trump:



  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you have issues with reading comprehension? I’m nice enough to do research and share with you, and you have the nerve to disrespect me. What happen to you with teachers that you obsessively hate them? Let it go…move on.

    Jim says:
    June 17, 2022 at 6:36 am
    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 16, 2022 at 9:25 pm
    Jim, do with what you want with what I share. This is not about me, I’m just trying to share valuable information on a blog.

    Really, and yet you do not follow that information…what a troll! Yet you teach.

  113. Juice Box says:

    BRT – “Cancelled Asbury plans”

    Towns down here are hauling the organizers infront of a judge now as we speak.

    They just hauled a bunch of organizers (from Newark and East Orange) in front of the Monmouth county judge and made them take down their social media posts or else for the Long Branch party. Asbury and Point Pleasant are trying to do the same.

    Three of the six sued by Long Branch were no shows in court the ones that did were ordered to post on their social media the following.

    “In addition, Thornton ordered the six men that they all must post the following notice on their social media accounts:

    “The Long Branch Beach Linkup on June 19 is CANCELLED. There will be no future ‘Beach Linkups,’ ‘Pop-Up Parties,’ or similar events without permits in the city of Long Branch. It is ILLEGAL to consume alcohol, tobacco, or marijuana on the Long Branch beach, boardwalk or surrounding public area.””


    Will be interesting to see if the ACLU, BLM, Rainbow Coalition etc latch onto this and sue the towns for $$$. You can bet there will be an angle to make some money on this one.

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Did you actually see the chat? It was hilarious. Best part, was Elon responding to it on twitter…”interesting.” Good luck!

  115. Juice Box says:

    What I find comical about Twitter is the are actually using Slack to communicate internally. Why can’t a chat app company build their own internal chat software? Why do they have so many stupid people posting all these messages publicly too? They will become targets for HR in the first round of layoffs.

    7,500+ employees????

    See post below…it’s from their slack channel over their internal all hands meeting with Elon, lots of negative messages.

    Some employee actually wrote “I’ll have to question JACK why he thinks Elon is smart.”


    These folks are going to learn the real meaning of recession. I hoped they saved their earnings that is for sure.

  116. leftwing says:

    Rentlord, responded earlier on sites, mostly for purchase. Best/only real comprehensive source for leasing is through commercial brokers. I’ve used CBRE, imagine these days they would welcome inquiries to take space if that is your angle…

  117. grim says:

    What I find comical about Twitter is the are actually using Slack to communicate internally.

    Salesforce would prefer you not make such comments.

  118. Juice Box says:

    RentL0rd – ban@@@&kruptcies and auctio@@#ns are a good place to start.

    have to post one link at a time..


  119. Juice Box says:

    link #2


    (Lots of closed gyms and liquor licenses)

  120. Juice Box says:

    Link #3


    There are others like Leftwing mentioned loopnet etc.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “Extremely frugal families are coping with record-high inflation by doing what they’ve always done: not spending money.

    “It doesn’t affect us as much because of the way we shop,” says Art Shillito, who along with his wife, Janelle, forgo shopping lists and mostly buy marked-down items. The Burnt Hills, N.Y., couple say they’ve spent an average $364.74 a month this year to feed their family of 11, which is below last year’s monthly average of $500. ”


  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oil dropping…now at 114. Did the bubble pop in oil? If oil drops hard, I’m buying back in with 401k. That’s my signal.

  123. Boomer Remover says:

    This lawful execution on contact policy we have in this country is nuts. This video from a shooting and the audio that goes with it are outrageous, at they are to me.


  124. crushednjmillenial says:

    Rentlord . . . as was posted above by others, the best single site is Loopnet. Then, also for small properties, there is value on NJMLS if you filter to include mixed and commercial, while filtering out the small residential stuff.

    But, the real value for lead generation is you need to have open lines of communication with several commercial brokers, so they call you when they get a listing because they might mostly just market it to their list. If you are a commercial real estate operator, you should probably have at least 10-20 commercial agents sending you periodic emails when they have something (which, they are spamming to a few hundred prospects with an auto-email lsit – some serious prospects, some somewhat serious, many that are a mis-match for the potential property).

    Then, you’re next level of lead gen would be to connect with servicers of commercial properties and ask them to loop you in if they hear someone wants to sell (property managers, vendors, etc).

    Finally, you make contact with the commercial owners directly with your proprietary system of phone calls, letters, emails, or other marketing techniques to find commercial owners that want to sell.

  125. crushednjmillenial says:

    ^for leasing, it’s a more-fractured marketing market than for sale. You should probably hire your own commercial agent to help you find a space, in my opinion. Helpful to find the space, to price the space and negotiate the lease. I hope it goes well.

  126. leftwing says:

    It is unfathomable that pharmaceuticals developed nearly two years ago are still being approved under Emergency Use Authorizations, especially for the age group under consideration (six months of age through 4 years old).

    There was more than enough time to run these through proper clinical trials. Doing so is particularly important as infants are simply not ‘small people’ when it comes to pharmaceuticals, ie. trials are not just for dosing as one may do with different body mass types, but need to evaluate the specific effects on different and developing immune systems present in extremely young individuals.

    And, of particular note, over the 2+ years of the pandemic only 442 children in this age cohort died.

    If this vaccine has any developmental issues on these children someone needs to be incarcerated for letting these companies go so far outside of the boundaries of established protocol, for so long, for the most vulnerable group of our population.

    It is really unbelievable this is being allowed, let alone promoted.

  127. Very Stable Genius says:

    “Wow. Sandra Garza, Brian Sicknick’s partner on @jaketapper: “Trump does not give two craps about law enforcement or Brian and yet Prince William took the time to honor me and Brian” on Prince William writing her a letter. She’s gotten nothing from Trump.”

  128. RentL0rd says:

    Thank you Juice!

  129. RentL0rd says:

    And LeftWing!

    Busy morning here – which is good so I don’t look at my portfolio.

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oil down to 109…

  131. JCer says:

    Exactly leftwing, the government wants me to jab my small children with an “experimental” vaccine for a disease which poses literally no risks to them, they’ve already had it and are among the most exposed group so quite likely they are already immune to the latest variant. There is absolutely no benefit, they have no data, and these are the people that went apoplectic over ivermectin not having data despite it’s very established safety profile. I also cannot get over the number of bogus articles in leftwing rags pro-porting prior omicron infection doesn’t prevent a future infection, if that is the case just throw up your arms because there is no stopping this virus, old ass vaccines are in no way shape or form better than recovering from the latest variant. Looking at IgG titers is absolutely meaningless and anyone who is doing this is either incompetent or purposely using bad data points to justify more vaccine recommendations. There needs to be an investigation of what is going on here because there is something definitely wrong, I understood the vaccine guidance back in 2021 but now knowing what we know it is criminal that they are continuing this and manipulating what little data they have to support their conclusions.

  132. crushednjmillenial says:

    It has been great that Mayra Flores (R-TX 34) is a republican and the first Mexican-born congressperson in the US. Since she is a Republican, the fact of which country she was born in is just simply mentioned in media coverage of her win, and the mainstream, regular American can say “great, the US shows once again it is an open, inclusive and democratic society.” If she was a D, it would have been huge coverage and there would have been digs against the R’s as racist and oppressive mixed in.

  133. Phoenix says:

    “Will be interesting to see if the ACLU, BLM, Rainbow Coalition etc latch onto this and sue the towns for $$$. You can bet there will be an angle to make some money on this one.”

    If what the judge did in this case was illegal, I hope they win.

    Using the law in an illegal manner, even if you are a town, needs to be prosecuted or fined. It sets a dangerous precedent.

    The law needs to cut both ways equally, otherwise it shouldn’t be enforced at all.

  134. Phoenix says:

    Boomer Remover

    That video was disturbing. Not surprising.

    My town just got video cameras in the last year. Any idea how helpful they might have been in my divorce? The lies she told to officers on camera in a courthouse?

    Don’t tell me it’s about money, it drips out of the pores here on a hot day.

    They didn’t want them-cause it allows them to operate like a bunch of rogue animals.
    I don’t care if they get them now, it’s too late to help me anyway.

    Once again, a shout out to those scientists and engineers who make these cameras possible. Your hard work has shown society just how sick some people really are. You are responsible for helping truth come alive in a way that many others could never have done. A hat tip to you.

  135. Phoenix says:


    Good post. But no one will be incarcerated. You can thank the law for that.

    Same one that provides Qualified Immunity.

    Some animals are more equal than others.

  136. njtownhomer says:

    Grim: “$712 car payment is the average?”

    today heard from my CFO friend “car loan delinquencies increased by 27%”.

    very interesting data, indicating the demise of used car market. Inflation is slowing down everything, but it won’t stop the WTI that fast, there is no increase in supply, summer demand will be consistent. Lets wait people get used to pay $5/gal at the pump.

    We will never see sub-$3/gal price levels in our lifetimes.

  137. The Great Pumpkin says:

    nj homer,

    Down to 108 now. Dream on….oil is the last bubble standing. When it pops, only then can the economy recover. Oil is the driver of inflation right now…

  138. 3b says:

    Crushed: What many white elite liberals assume minorities/ people of color are natural Democrats and liberal. They cannot accept that many Hispanic and Black people as well as Asians, are very socially conservative. In many cases more conservative than many independents , democrats and representatives . I know it from extended family members and from friends. In fact they are horrified at some socially liberal ideas that many may not be. They also get furious when they are patronized by white liberals. Of course many white liberals don’t have family members who are minorities, and don’t live with minorities, so they simply don’t understand this.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know what’s interesting…a barrel of oil in 2013/14 was around the current price, but gas was only about $3.54. Wonder why gas is so much more now.

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Where is the excess price going?

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I guess to some supply chain driven price increase somewhere in the oil production line.

  142. njtownhomer says:

    The production is down, the materials are not there, there is so much underinvestment in energy (oil and gas). Hence it is not todays price, it is based on future time horizon.

    I think what is priced in energy is the hope of meeting with MBS and possibly some kind of resolution/negotiation with Ukraine. Zelensky had a lot of guests today who badly needed oil and gas at reasonable levels. Regardless of the outcome, there is still under investment in Oil and Gas. By the year end, I fear seeing $200 WTI. I wish to be wrong.

  143. OC1 says:

    “You know what’s interesting…a barrel of oil in 2013/14 was around the current price, but gas was only about $3.54. Wonder why gas is so much more now.”

    Refinery issues. “Oil” out of the ground varies in it’s composition depending on where it comes from, and requires different refining methods.

    A refinery designed to handle “sweet” crude can’t handle “sour” crude, and vice versa.

  144. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Maybe .01% chance for that. Price of oil prob already peaked this cycle.

  145. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Yup, good ol supply chain bs.

  146. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Remember, FED raising rates like this is killing growth in the economy….aka demand for everything from oil to copper.

  147. 3b says:

    Njtown: The commodities desks on Wall Street are in agreement with your statement.

  148. SmallGovConservative says:

    njtownhomer says:
    June 17, 2022 at 1:58 pm
    “We will never see sub-$3/gal price levels in our lifetimes.”

    I think we will, and relatively quickly ***IF*** we elect a Republican prez who once again implements an ‘all of the above’ energy policy that prioritizes domestic energy production/independence. Even with the ESG/climate change nonsense that has clearly impacted domestic energy financing, the previous admin had successfully eliminated OPEC+Russia’s pricing power, and relatively low oil and gas prices were the result. Joe ceded that pricing power back on day 1 by making it clear to the market that the US was no longer ‘in the game’ — and the rest is history.

  149. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I really think they start lowering rates by next year.

    “Right now, the Fed is ratcheting rates higher. The central bank announced Wednesday that it is lifting the federal-funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point, and projected that it will move the rate up to 3.75% by the end of 2023. It’s trying to slow down inflation that has remained high. 
    That feels scary for now, but it won’t be long before the hikes slow significantly. The Fed’s forecast for the end of next year imply that it will lifts rates many times this year and then hike only a few times next year. By 2024, the fed funds rate would fall back down to 3.5%, most projections from Fed members show. That “suggests rate cuts will be a reality within two years,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO.”-Barrons

  150. leftwing says:

    “I think what is priced in energy is the hope of meeting with MBS and possibly some kind of resolution/negotiation with Ukraine. Zelensky had a lot of guests today who badly needed oil and gas at reasonable levels…I wish to be wrong.”

    I wish you too…on my second round shorting oil around 120….give me another 9 points down and I go from a one bagger now to a five bagger….

    As soon as shooting stops Russian LNG and oil flows to Western Europe. Artillery barrels will still be warm….

  151. Trick says:

    So what happens Monday? Markets were just hanging around today with little movement, Dow touched 30 a couple of times but finished below

  152. 3b says:

    Sotomayor says Clarence Thomas is a good man who cares deeply about the Supreme Court as an institution. She also said although they’re political philosophies are different, he is a man of kindness who knows every employees name and asks how their families are doing.

    I assume this will enrage the woke leftist mob, and she will have to be canceled. And protests need to take place in front of her residence.

  153. 3b says:

    Trick: Markets closed on Monday, part of the reason things pretty quiet today.

  154. JCer says:

    Diesel/Gas is a refining issue. The biggest issue is the lack of refining capability in Europe so they are using our supplies. That plus the continuing decline of refining capacity in North America means not only are we producing less but we are also exporting finished product. Around 2020 we lost around 700,000 bpd of capacity, we really need to replace those refineries, probably need 3 new refineries with 200-250,000 bpd of capacity, one on the east coast, one on the west and one on the gulf coast. No one want to build them, too much risk, and too much government red tape to deal with. The feds need to make it happen but with braindead Biden it isn’t going to happen, even if we switch to electric vehicles 100% we will still need oil, it simply isn’t going away and gas and diesel will be once again considered byproducts like they were 130 years ago when people wanted kerosine.

  155. Trick says:

    Missed that one and makes sense.

  156. Juice Box says:

    Jcer – That was not always the case, refiners today is the U.S. Gulf Coast region frequently find that it makes economic sense to export some of their refined gasoline to other countries instead of the East Coast. There are two refineries in New Jersey. Philipps 66 Bayway Refinery is the one everyone knows it’s in Linden and straddles the Turnpike. They built a railcar unloading facility there about 8 years ago to offload the Canadian Tar Sands crude as well as Bakken oil from North Dakota. Those tankers about 120 per CSX train arrive almost daily, up to thirty monthly runs make way into New Jersey via the rail line in Bergen County that runs right over the Oradell reservoir, trains pass through Northvale, Norwood, Harrington Park, Closter, Haworth, Dumont, Bergenfield, Teaneck, Bogota, Ridgefield every week. That reservoir is drinking water for 800,000 people, better hope there is no derailment there..

    We also import refined gasoline from Europe too…

    I am all for energy independence, but the reality is the 10 million barrels a day Russia was exporting before the war is still happening. There are customers everywhere looking for discounted oil and are getting it, it makes no difference how we price Brent or WTI in Dollars they are trading Euros, Yuan, Rupees etc all directly to Roubles now. Just look at the Rouble its recovered and then some.

    Wake me up when we sanction India or heck Italy…there is no replacement for Russian crude it simply is not going to happen.

  157. The Great Pumpkin says:

    While many Malibu residents are pleased that their home values have grown, others lament the loss of the old Malibu.

    Ruth Preven, 84, lives near Paradise Cove. She moved to Malibu from New York in the 1990s after her husband, Gary Bowen, was offered a job directing a soap opera. Back then, she said, Malibu was “funky.” Now, she said, it’s gotten too “upscale” and “too Ralph Laur6n.”

    Mr. Pierson said he has a childhood memory of a community debate over whether to install a third streetlight on Trancas Canyon Road, off the Pacific Coast Highway near Zuma Beach. “Now on that same stretch of highway, I don’t even know how many lights there are,” he said.


  158. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sucks for the locals…

  159. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Dallas Forth Worth housing market may fall big time now as there are 50000 homes under construction, a full year of supply.

    Combine this with 6% mortgage and layoffs, I think prices can fall 30%.”

    “Texas always had this problem. Hardly any boom and more bust. Too much land. And now, even inflation does not help with higher interest rates. Houston is the worst housing market.”

    “I live in DFW area and can tell you that the 50000 homes are skewed toward the larger size, so the glut of 2500+ sf homes will be even more substantial!”

  160. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “We also have employers telling workers they need to be close to the office they are originally assigned to. GL working from TX or FL with NYC or SF salaries.”

  161. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, no kidding. Buying real estate in hot locations is the equivalent of buying high growth stocks….f’ing volatile as chit and you better hope you sell at the high.

    “A home builder friend here in Nashville told me last night that he’s hearing of a lot of people backing out of planned projects, and he’s getting a lot of calls about lots for sale…all of a sudden. And this is in a booming town.”

  162. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’ll stick to high growth for stocks and steady dependable market for my housing.

  163. 3b says:

    Juice: Keep an eye on the deleveraging going on in the market, probably some things hiding somewhere.

  164. The Great Pumpkin says:

    🏡The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

    🏡This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long-term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says, “The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

    🏡The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Their 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand. Home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic. And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data, showings are still above 2019 levels. And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

    🏡DM me if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.

  165. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, a realtor that gets it. Good to see. North jersey realtor..

  166. JCer says:

    Juice it’s a global market, point being the refining capacity is an issue otherwise the gas and diesel prices wouldn’t be SO high, oil as a commodity was more expensive in the past and fuel prices were lower. The EU thanks to “climate policy” has been reducing their refining capacity for years and the Russians were all too happy to sell them petrol and diesel. Well aware that the Canadians send their oil here to be refined, we still have the most capacity. When looking at it refinery capacity is big in China and Russia, not what I’d call “friendly” countries at this point, I think the govt needs to try too maintain domestic capacity.

  167. Juice Box says:

    Jcer – Sorry bud as soon as we restricted the Russians from access to dollars and froze what we could it was no longer a global market for oil and gas priced in WTI and Brent.

    Even Europe is now paying for energy in Roubles, it’s a dirty backdoor move too bank accounts with Russian bank and all.

    What happens when Mohammed bin Salman tells Biden to send the weapons and cut off support for Ukraine?

    It’s Going to get way messier, the Europeans have their heads in the sand now…

  168. Juice Box says:

    BTW – how much longer will it be before we start hearing about Chinese supplied munitions to the Russian?

  169. The Great Pumpkin says:


    We are at war, people just don’t realize it.

  170. njtownhomer says:

    is this the demand destruction story then?

    Refinery equities past week:
    $MPC -17%
    $VLO -17%
    $VTNR -23%
    $PBF -14%
    $DK -16%
    $PSX -12%
    $CLMT -28%
    $DINO -18%
    $PARR -15%

  171. Phoenix says:

    I agree with pumpy

    “We are at war, people just don’t realize it.”

    We are involved in Ukraine cause that is the place where you get a cut and control of Russia’s energy. Siphoning off the profits by controlling the distribution.

    Like everything else, it’s about money and power. America is trying to tame China as well.
    China and Russia, plus Saudi Arabia- that combo might just be enough to bring down America.

    Boomer can’t get enough, needs to control the world. Instead it may be sealing the fate of the youth in America.

Comments are closed.