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first …for the weekend
Covid running rampant again, nobody cares.
My father had covid a second time last week, mild in comparison to the first time which almost landed him in the hospital. Two close friends also both had it, mild. One of my employees as well, mild.
Saw an article the other day about hundreds of thousands of unreported cases, not surprised at that. My Vegas trip three weeks back had half a dozen of my co-workers all come down with covid. Hell, the conference was 2.5k people in close quarters, no masks.
No omicron variant vaccine in sight for this year, so fall is going to shape up to be a complete shit show.
NYC wants to bring masks back. Good luck with “return to work” there. How many more nails in the coffin?
Lol yup…maybe nyc needs to die for the time being to rid it of this awful leadership. Maybe if nyc gets knocked off its high horse, team red will actually get a chance to enact some good policies there to help business instead of shaking it down. Weird how life works like that.
Quite frankly, I’m getting sick of the blue team the older I get. They take advantage of the naivety of the youth and beaten down…selling them false hope that they are there to make things better for everyone. They are there to help themselves, nothing more.
“NYC wants to bring masks back. Good luck with “return to work” there. How many more nails in the coffin?”
Thinking about this more. Conservatives have learned through age experience that all are corrupt. So they want the least amount of power given to said corruption. Simple as that.
I have mild covid. Had a sore throat and 101 fever for a day. Then morphed into a cold with a stuffy nose that makes me feel tired with sweating. Weird to have a normal temperature and feel sweaty. Day 2 had the urge for chi-fil-a. Now I want donuts. I can feel fine but then get tired once I start doing something beyond watching tv. Never been sick and want to eat fried chicken and donuts before.
Yep the new NJ restrictions on micro brew will shutter many of them. Direct sales have the biggest margin and I think this will reduce them significantly, at least that seems to be the point. The restaurant lobby has struck back.
Overall micro brew sales were down everywhere last year and they are still opening.
Other than if we build it they will come, or a hobby business, I don’t see a lot of coherent business plans. The town watering hole is the model and that has been hobbled. Retail channels are packed, the shelf life is short, looks like challenging times ahead.
The highest margin activities are the least scalable, and most likely to hit a wall.
Meaning, on premise consumption has the highest margins, followed by on premise retail sales, followed by self-distribution, followed by traditional 3 tier model distribution.
Any brewery worth their salt would be maximizing the highest margin activities early on, but, will always hit a cap.
If you want to grow, you need to be able to mature to service the traditional 3 tier model.
This is the rationale behind the ABC position, that the intention wasn’t to create a new category of consumption venues, to open the door enough to allow for a path to profitability and growth by allowing SOME activities that would be beneficial for small breweries.
All of these ancillary restrictions – they are caps on premise consumption, but not at all for premise retail, meaning high margin options are still avail.
Most of these places would probably be better served operating as bars with brewpub licenses, which carry strict non-distribution provisions.
There was distillery legislation that never saw the light of day – restaurant owners wanted to be able to hold limited distillery licenses, like brewpubs.
It’s not going to kill anything, but will certainly limit the ability to open a bar without needing a liquor license, which is how a lot of these shops are operating.
NJ needs to completely reform the liquor license mafia.
Brandon strikes again. I really think this man is as stupid as he is demented:
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673
Fast: It’s sad. And the Dems chose Biden as they said he was the only one who could beat Trump. That’s all the Dems had to offer to Americans was Biden.
3b,
O’Biden received 5 million more votes than Obammy. For anyone that believes that, I have a bridge to sell you.
Why would anyone pay this price for this dump?
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/41-bullens-ave-wayne-nj-07470–2006562418
Cute house, nice looking property. It seems like a nice layout and the price isn’t making me laugh out loud. We should do a field trip to see the negatives, it’s an open house:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/24-highland-ter-wayne-nj-07470–2006558470
Residential or commercially zoned but what do you do with it? Look at the aerial pictures towards the end of the slide show:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/920-hamburg-tpke-wayne-nj-07470–2006568939?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
Imagine watching Biden and Harris talk to each other unscripted. It’d be like a Saturday night live skit when the show was funny.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10997127/VP-Kamala-Harris-says-congress-needs-act-make-abortion-law.html
The markets and categories don’t exist for even a fraction of these breweries to shift to a three tier distribution and be profitable. They need to sell a significant portion to you for $7 a glass. They are now severely limited in the ability to do that.
More broadly, beer sales are falling and have been. Many or possibly most of them will fold, there is no other way.
It doesn’t matter if they come up with an updated vaccine. They plan to code it with Omicron BA.1. BA.5 already evades the antibodies from BA.1 as of 2 months ago. Going 3 months forward, it will mutate even further. It’s too fast for vaccines, just like other coronaviruses. There’s no point. Everyone that has already recovered has essentially a 0% chance of any further complications. Those that didn’t, antivirals and monoclonal antibodies are your quick answer.
Hold, you better hope you don’t develop long covid. 4 months of donuts and fried chicken will kill you.
Fast reading, skipping Fat idiot spewing his bile makes this blog a quick read.
Dude, just wait for the American women to raise up at the next polls. GOP is toast.
Led by Mayor Francis X. Suarez, Miami is attempting something so ambitious it has rarely succeeded anywhere before—transforming a city identified with glitzy beaches and nightlife into a world-class business and financial center.
So far it seems to be working. Ken Griffin, who already lives primarily in Florida, said in June that he is moving his giant hedge fund Citadel from its Chicago headquarters to Miami. Financiers Carl Icahn and Orlando Bravo are among the billionaires who relocated to the area during the pandemic. The cryptocurrency exchange platform Blockchain.com moved its headquarters to Miami last year. The Miami Heat now play in the FTX Arena, named for the crypto exchange that paid $135 million for the rights.
But Miami is experiencing plenty of growing pains along the way. Wealthy tech and finance professionals are crowding out many lifelong residents. Apartment rents are rising faster in the Miami area than anywhere else in the country, by 58% over the past two years through March, according to Realtor.com. In some desirable neighborhoods, landlords are doubling the rent after a lease expires because they know transplants from the Northeast and West Coast are willing to pay that much more.
Starwood’s new headquarters were supposed to be completed last year, but a supply-chain crunch and permitting delays mean Mr. Sternlicht is still waiting. Mr. Sternlicht would like all his top executives to live in Miami Beach, but a number of them have school-age children and say they won’t move because the area’s private schools have long waiting lists.
Now he worries that Miami might be overextending itself just as storm clouds gather over the national economy. When he looks at Miami’s Wynwood neighborhood—long a mix of warehouses and art galleries that is now exploding with new office and residential buildings—the Starwood chief executive sees a thicket of cranes. As head of one of the world’s largest property owners, he worries it is reminiscent of other hot areas that ramped up before experiencing busts.
What can go wrong in Miami? Lmao.
I just don’t understand how so called smart people can be so stupid.
US presidents are incredibly busy all day long. Meetings, phone calls, then they get called into another room to make a statement that somebody else wrote for them. Every president in my lifetime has made his share of dumb flubs in those situations.
But I’d be willing to bet that Biden knows how to pronounce the name of our most famous national park.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tExW_ivF80A
yo, semite? That’s the way I pronounced it when I first read the name at around the age of 10.
Miami just like Dubai – except instead of building it with oil, they built it with coke. And now both of them need to find a real economy to fill it.
BRT
Donut shops and fried chicken form the backbone of local Texas economy. They are a growth industry down here.
For me the night sweats have been the worst part so far. Feel cold, sweating, temperature is normal though. Drinking around a gallon of water a day.
Lmao…two great posts in a row
Grim says:
July 9, 2022 at 8:36 pm
Miami just like Dubai – except instead of building it with oil, they built it with coke. And now both of them need to find a real economy to fill it.
Hold my beer says:
July 9, 2022 at 8:37 pm
BRT
Donut shops and fried chicken form the backbone of local Texas economy. They are a growth industry down here
Hope it ends soon, hold. Hang in there!
Oc1,
Imagine getting paid over 400k with lifetime benefits to read off a teleprompter. What a joke govt is.
https://nypost.com/2022/07/09/new-covid-subvariant-could-make-you-sweat-at-night/
Guess they don’t want y0u to film in your own car during traffic stops:
A new Arizona law will make it illegal to film law enforcement encounters from closer than 8 feet away except in certain circumstances, such as when the person recording is the one being questioned by the authorities.
Nothing to see here:
Lopez says it is hard to track vehicle repossession rates because banks are loath to talk about them. But based on what he says he has seen from banks, subprime repos have nearly doubled since 2020, to around 11% on average. The bigger red flag is in prime repos, where borrowers have higher credit scores. Lopez says usually about 2% of prime loans wind up repossessed. Now, that rate is at about 4%. Some of that can be explained by pandemic support temporarily making some consumers look like better borrowers. But it probably doesn’t fully explain the jump in prime defaults, thus suggesting a wider swath of consumers are struggling despite narratives around large cash cushions and a strong job market buffering households as inflation bites, interest rates rise, and financial markets melt.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 9, 2022 at 7:18 am
“Conservatives have learned through age experience that all are corrupt. So they want the least amount of power given to said corruption. Simple as that.”
Perhaps your most cogent post ever! To expand on your accurate assessment, govt is inherently inefficient and wasteful (people spending other people’s money) and govt positions are inherently prone to corruption; the only ‘solution’ is to ensure govt is kept as small as possible, providing only those services that are essential (national defense, border security, regulation, etc).
RentL0rd says:
July 9, 2022 at 5:15 pm
“Dude, just wait for the American women to raise up at the next polls. GOP is toast.”
This is what a toxically feminized male sounds like — actively rooting for the re-election of idiots like AOC, yikes! Unfortunately I think it’s an incurable condition. Very sad!
Every president in my lifetime has made his share of dumb flubs in those situations.
Every day? Multiple time per day? Do they have queue cards to tell them to sit and stand? Does Brandon have ANYTHING at all to call an achievement? Does he even know he’s president?
No dog in the fight, but can’t wait to see in PA if they vote for Fetterman or Dr. Oz.
You could use the results of that decision as an IQ test for the people who live there.
Thanks pumps. I feel better everyday but the night sweats aren’t letting up.
HMB
Get better soon.
Hillary- hates men
AOC-hates men
Elizabeth Warren- hates men.
Not getting my vote if you label any group of individuals as “your problem” when you want to get elected.
When Mehmet Oz went to the Hamptons over the July Fourth weekend for a glitzy party with famous guests dressed all in white, John Fetterman made sure his supporters knew about it.
“I dare this dude to stay in Pennsylvania for like, one day,” said a fund-raising message from Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate. He attached an eye-roll emoji and a request for $5 donations.
After Oz tweeted a video criticizing Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney, Fetterman blasted out a viral tweet pointing out the backdrop looked suspiciously like an ornate living area from Oz’s New Jersey home, which was once featured in People magazine.
When Fetterman railed against gas prices and the profits reaped by oil companies, he added in a statement: “Dr. Oz surely doesn’t notice these sky high prices. He might not even notice if one of his nine homes went missing.”
And on Friday he launched a TV ad asking, “Do you want someone that’s all about North Jersey?” He added, “He’s not one of us.” (He also planned to fly a banner over the Jersey Shore with the message “HEY DR. OZ, WELCOME HOME TO NJ! ♥ JOHN.”)
Hold, hope you get well soon. Have to tried some Gatorade mixed with your water? Your electrolytes may be low / exacerbating the problem and even though you are consuming 1 gal of water daily, you could have significant dehydration.
Hold: Feel better soon.
Drive by shooting last night, by Rockerfeller Centrr, St. Patrick’s. Getting worse than the 70s/80s.
Interesting. Here is the link for the chart. https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=7Pub8&m=3fIDASSn1bQy8gR&b=W5rTOr.FkEcWUhe7KCg3vg
“Every so often, a new idea hits me like a charging baby rhino hungry for its next meal. I then stew on the idea for a while to make sure it’s logical before publishing my thoughts.
What if we could measure the financial satisfaction of various city residents? What if we could also identify how big of a minimum net worth is needed to feel truly wealthy? What if we could measure our greed? Hmm.
I present to you the Financial Samurai Wealth Reality Ratio = Minimum Net Worth Required To Feel Wealthy / Median Home Price Of Your City
The higher the Wealth Reality Ratio, the less satisfied you are and vice versa. Given we can find the objective value of the denominator, we can discover our personal satisfaction or determine a net worth target that will make us feel rich.
Logically, the more money you aspire to have, the harder you will likely need to work, the more time you will likely have to spend, and the more risks you will likely have to take to achieve your target. Work too hard and/or spend too much time and frustration will eventually ensue. Further, if you aspire for too high of a net worth, you might never reach it, which would also bum you out.
Conversely, if you can be satisfied with little more than a comfortable place to live, then you are more easily satisfied with your finances. The median home price is used as the denominator to reflect economic opportunity. It is not the home itself you think would make you feel rich. Please don’t confuse this important point.
The Buddha teaches us that desire is the cause of all suffering. If you believe this to be true, as I do, then a never-ending quest for more money will only make you more miserable. We all need to find our what is enough point, and I think for most people their enough point is when the Wealth Reality Ratio is around a 5 or 6.
Cities Ranked By Financial Satisfaction And Happiness
Image
If your Wealth Reality Ratio is between 2 and 5, I think you’re satisfied financially with the opportunities you have. As you reach a ratio of 10, you are less and less satisfied because you’re longing for way more than you need.
Despite my logic, I got some wonderful disagreements from readers. To no surprise, most didn’t hail from the happier cities. And the one who did lives in San Francisco but wants to move out to afford a nicer home.
He mentioned San Francisco felt like a big rat race. But I warned him that the rat race is probably more intense in cities whose residents feel like they need 10X more than the median price of their city than 3X.
But he believes the grass is greener. So I hope he does move and will one day report back whether relocating to save money was worth it.
Please read The Unhappiest Cities In America Based On A New Wealth Reality Ratio, read the comments, and join the debate.
Personally, I’m a little greedier than the typical San Francisco resident and feel a Wealth Reality Ratio of 5 ($8.5 million) is the minimum net worth I need to feel wealthy raising two kids.
$3.5 million would be a nice 5-bedroom home. The remaining $5 million would be invested to generate between $150,000 – $250,000 in passive income.
Play around with the formula yourself to see if it makes sense.
Here’s a look at how difficult it is to retire early with a family in an expensive city with $5 million of investable assets. Hence, location and what stage of your life you’re in obviously matters.”
Dude, give it a rest. Cherry picking to feed your bias for nyc. If you think nyc is anything like the 70s-90s, I have a bridge to nowhere for sale. Interested?
3b says:
July 10, 2022 at 10:45 am
Drive by shooting last night, by Rockerfeller Centrr, St. Patrick’s. Getting worse than the 70s/80s.
Is it possible comparing 2022 GDP to a stimmied up 2021 economy gives a false positive recessionary reading?
We’re fucked either way just sayin. 2021 was record corp revs unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon.
So we may not be in a real recession as jobs may not be lost in the numbers you’d expect in a recession but earnings will take a reasonable haircut.
Looks like being isolated in your home (covid /wfh) is doing a number on the people of the world.
“A mass shooting at a tavern in Johannesburg’s Soweto township has killed 15 people and left others in critical condition, according to police.”
Would love to know how much higher mass shootings are up in the world?
BREAKING: Five people were shot after someone opened fire on a large group gathered at the boardwalk on Coney Island early Sunday morning.
Thanks everyone
Feeling much better. Only took 1 nap yesterday. Eating lots of fruits and veggies and some sardines. No Gatorade yet. Sending kid out to get some.
Binge watched ozark. That’s a great series. Feel like I’m well enough to handle subtitles now. Will start money heist Korea.
I think we can all agree on a number of things here.
Deck chairs. Titanic. Anxiety is the new normalcy.
Flack Jackets are the look this fall. Still no end to Ukraine. Thanks
Lib/Chi
Dumped much of the vol I shorted on Wed, it was near term expiry…in at almost spot on 28, out at 25…
Some random electrical impulses from the base of the brainstem…what if you threw a party and no one cared enough to show up?
Are we in a recession, are we not, will we be, who’ll come….?
We are in recession, by the most technical of measures. But who cares? The Fed is making progress on its goals…
The worst excesses are being wrung out of the markets….in no particular order…SPACs, NFTs, crypto, shit-tech, the door is cracking open on RE…
The Fed will have the wiggle room it wants on rates…go back to 2018/19 and all they wanted was a 2.50% FFR…they got it, and the numbers last week and an ugly pending CPI this week (remember, seriously rear view mirror) give them cover to go 75bps this month and bailed them out of that rookie mistake of essentially committing to 75 for July in June…I just popped up FFR futures curve, they peak in Apr 2023 at 3.58…
And, the economy is doing OK…yeah, there are things I don’t like, much consumer credit oriented (seems now prime auto loan repossessions have moved from about 2% to 4%) and I expect to see further deterioration but (i) the economy is not the market and (ii) what if we are halfway or better through where we are going? Give unemployment a full turn from 3.6% to 4.8%…hell 5.8%…And…? Jobless claims double from 240k to 480k…And…?
Point is…this is a Fed that is not inherently hawkish and got dragged there kicking and screaming…and the market is giving them cover to get to their target rate now. I think the surprise from the Fed is on the upside (ie, less aggressive increases). On the economy, we’re robust but will pull back (all the more reason for the Fed to go to its comfort zone and tap the brakes on increases). And on earnings, if there are downside surprises (guidance) especially in growth services (speaking SPX, not spec-tech) we will be at valuation levels in the market even with those revised earnings not seen in a while. I watch a lot of broad parameters. So many indicators are at levels coincident with ’01, ’08, and ’20…unless you believe this economic/stock pullback will reflect worse levels than those periods I think throw it all in a blender and from a market perspective after any earnings adjustments in the upcoming few weeks we are 80% or better of the way through this thing from a market (not economic) perspective…
I’m not calling a bottom – I don’t do parlor games – nor am I turning unambiguously bullish. But for someone who went cash in 2019 and spent the last three years whoring out solid positive returns and much better than market returns mostly by way of margin, selling premium, and some carefully curated directional trades it’s a pretty notable change in view.
All bets are off if the bottom falls out of earnings and, as always, valuations are paramount but I will likely this week start dipping a toe in actually going long with a view toward LT holds…it will be at first through safer situations that work for me…pairs trades, risk reversals, and highly company specific situations but if earnings were to happen tomorrow and some brand name growth companies were to dump on slight weakness in their numbers I can’t see buying opportunities getting much better and I would leg in aggressively.
I do think that too much negativity is baked in – sorry, ain’t no one showing up at your recession party – and surprises on the upside like Fed 0/25bps in Sept, ceasefire in Ukraine that could give multiday face -ripping rallies that would hold.
As always YMMV, do your own diligence, and trade within your comfort zones.
Your local HS janitor.
left: actually at work right now, catching up after last week on vacation.
Look…… aren’t we at about 15x-16x-ish forward earnings right now.
That’s off 2023……. you really think no one is going to take anything down? Fuck if I know, so I am playing it down the middle.
Bottom line, we don’t know stuff such as forex, interest rate, and commodity hedges, and the acceptance normalized/pro-forma explanations. The other thing is repurchases that you would hope would be at full tilt for megacaps.
I would think you would be selling upside at a minimum. To be clear though, we are in the middle of the smokescreen (pun intended).
The dangerous thing is up…… max pain is if there is any sign that the Fed backs off. We get instant 7-8% covering rally. I still think there is too much positivity. Too many still involved. We need more hopelessness and broken stuff.
I personally don’t think the bad earnings are priced in. We will find out. I think we still have one leg down to go till bottom.
clot’s Wine store e-mail blast from last week…..
Business, not as usual
This week, out of respect for the 168 million women who have been rendered second-class citizens by the structural/institutional violence of a court that cannot distinguish between justice and politics and the scores of innocent people injured and killed in mass shootings because that same court assigns more rights to machine guns than to non-white, non-male human beings, we pause from our usual weekly sales pitch.
We will be open for business as usual, but this will not be a usual week of business. Instead, we want to take this week to simply sit with all of this, let it sink in and really think through how we can respond in a thoughtful, sustainable way. It’ll be a good week to not talk very much and listen a lot.
And if we come out of this week with one idea- or even no ideas and just more questions- it will have been better spent in that activity than in trying to convince you (and really, it’d be just trying to convince ourselves) that we simply carry on as if we have not all been diminished by such callous lack of leadership and disregard for life that has been shown by those in whom we place our highest trust.
When I spent a few years as owner of a business not related to wine, I often used the phrase “where you sit is where you stand”. What I meant to say was that we often live by principles that are flimsy ad hoc/post hoc justifications for acting solely in our own best interest, an interest that is often no more than financial in nature. However, for today and for this week, out of respect for all we have lost and in a desire to do our part to change the current reality, where we at TFWR stand will simply be where we sit.
Don’t know the background information, but world is going crazy. Click on the link for the video. Can’t say it enough, most people aren’t meant to be isolated in their home all day. It absolutely messes them up.
“BANK OF CHINA IN ZHENGZHOU”
https://twitter.com/investmentshulk/status/1546222694756122625?s=21&t=BOUs9gT3rzPbZ1ZR1EQOhA
I really really hope we never see another shutdown again. Hope they learned their lesson.
https://twitter.com/DaveLieber/status/1545820344363229189?s=20&t=zs7Pe4gvYE_c8XZar8dqjA
Wonder what protection he called
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11000503/Jets-quarterback-Zach-Wilsons-ex-girlfriend-claims-slept-moms-BEST-FRIEND.html#article-11000503