We’ve never wanted a recession so badly

From MarketWatch:

A ‘fake’ recession? The U.S. economy is in decent shape for now despite weak GDP

The U.S. might fall prey to recession in the near future, but it isn’t entering one now and any such talk of a shrinking economy would be “fake,” in the words of one analyst.

Worries about recession have exploded in the past several months as inflation kept rising and the Federal Reserve adopted a more aggressive strategy to increase interest rates. One poll shows more than half of the public thinks the U.S. is already in recession.

That’s not a big surprise. Rising rates tend to slow the economy — or worse. 

The past 10 U.S. recessions, for example, have taken place during or right after a recent Fed cycle of raising rates, according to research by Jefferies LLC.

Adding tinder to the fire, the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. Additionally, gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, could shrink again in the second quarter. 

Rarely has GDP shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared. The only time in U.S. history that happened was in 1947.

Yet an economy is far more complex than just headline GDP, analysts caution. 

The group of prestigious economists responsible for declaring official recessions takes into account six major factors, such as the health of the labor market as well as household income and spending.

By those measures, the U.S. is definitely not in a recession. Far from it.

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64 Responses to We’ve never wanted a recession so badly

  1. dentss dunngan says:


  2. dentss dunnigan says:

    I’ve gone ALL in …..

  3. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers

    The pain in the mortgage market is only getting worse as higher interest rates and inflation hammer American consumers.

    Mortgage demand fell more than 6% last week compared with the previous week, hitting the lowest level since 2000, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

    Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week and were 19% lower than the same week in 2021. Buyers have been contending with high prices all year, but with rates almost double what they were in January, they’ve lost considerable purchasing power.

    “Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand,” said Joel Kan, an economist for the MBA.

    While buyers are less affected by weekly moves in interest rates, the broader picture of rising rates has already taken its toll. Mortgage rates moved higher again last week after falling slightly over the past three weeks.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.82% from 5.74%, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 3.11% the same week one year ago.

    Demand for refinances, which are highly rate sensitive, fell 4% for the week and were 80% lower than the same week last year. Those applications are also at a 22-year low, but the drop in demand from homebuyers caused the refinance share of mortgage activity to increase to 31.4% of total applications from 30.8% the previous week.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So this is how it felt in 2007…we are not in a “fill in the blank.” Guess it’s their job to calm the public from the coming storm.

    I’m not buying it for one second. Housing drives the economy and that chit has stalled…

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers.

    And yet prices for the scarce listings are still nauseating. The only ones I have no sympathy for are the muffin top muppet sellers commanding top dollar for you to have the privilege of scrubbing years worth of body odor off the walls. I’ll never forget one open house where the fat Karen house tour guide was yelling at every potential buyer that the house demands top dollar as the fat ugly fuck owner was standing next to her, sweating gravy from every pore.

  6. Grim says:

    Excuse me while I tend to the batch of sauerkraut in the bathtub.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    sauerkraut in the tub: Take a pee in it once and while, it’s aromatic potpourri that buyers love!

  8. grim says:

    You need to pay extra to bathe in the kombucha, it’s the most recent thing. It’s better than eating placenta. My midwife slash lifecoach told me this in the salt cave.

  9. 3b says:

    Ian Shepherdson says US housing market could be headed for a meltdown.

  10. Libturd says:

    We’ll know by next Wednesday, firsthand.

    The mortgage numbers are astoundingly bad.

  11. 3b says:

    Lib: Yes, they are. It’s clear low rates fueled demand, and higher rates, which historically are still low, is crushing demand, due to the overinflated values. So, lower rates and start the madness all over again?? This is what happens when the Fed engages in reckless policies.

  12. Chicago says:

    placenta smoothie

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Why would I spend close to 500K for a 3bd./1bth box that needs to be bulldozed? Is it a starter home for a couple with one kid and another on the way? Is it aimed at a builder or regular buyer? Drop the price 150K and I’ll call you today:


  14. chicagofinance says:

    Cathie Wood Shuts Down an ETF After Just 7 Months

  15. leftwing says:

    “Disagree, my point is that this is now endemic.”

    Started sitting in Board rooms and with CEOs over 30 years ago…silently at first, was the junior team member but even at that age it was apparent how astoundingly inept too many were…Somewhat related Lib, I, and the other adults here on the board understand how important valuation is in investment matters. Equally, if not moreso, is management quality. On the principal side it is the first and last point drilled into your brain for long term investments above any other factor. I suspect if that was the case decades ago it was because experience well before that time showed endemic ineptness.

    It is both frightening and uplifting realizing our common point.

  16. Jim says:

    Don’t fight the Fed, simple advice that should be heeded. The Fed cares not who gets hurt, never has never will.
    Fed destroyed all the savers for the last 25 years, 5.25% was the standard interest for all savings accounts since the Great Depression. Fed wanted cheaper to spur the economy, interest rates went to virtual zero.

  17. Libturd says:

    When reviewing stocks for possible purchase in my two clubs (as well as in my personal portfolio), there are 5 areas we evaluate. The second after current valuation vs. historical is management quality and this is obtained by looking at the last 10 years of % of pretax profit (margin), return on equity (how well are they using your money), % of debt to equity (are they borrowing when they should be paying it back).

    Grim, Leftwing. The other thing that is happening in our perception of corporate leadership is that we are becoming wiser with age and honing our ability to remove biases and use a lifetime of experience to evaluate things much more thoroughly. Enjoy it. Senility comes next.

  18. Libturd says:

    In my case, my proper use of commas and possessives is going first.

  19. Libturd says:

    In other market news, my Nasdaq chart is nearing an inflection point. If we break 12,150 to the upside and close above 12,300, then I will be forced to put another 10% in bringing my long/stable position to 50/50.

    I still think we see record new lows in the Fall. But I can’t be greedy. Timing the market is incredibly difficult and I will not stupidly give back all that I have saved so far.

    With that said, pray with me for sh1tty earnings.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Who witnessed AOCs mock arrest yesterday? Actually, it was her and that other one from Minnesota; the one who married her brother or something. Anyway, AOC pretended to be cuffed, waved to the crowd and then continued the perp march. She’s an attention wh0re, another Kardashian, not a representative. Yet, like a slew of other leftist America-haters, she’ll get reelected. This is the modern s0cialist dem party; the ones who claim to follow the science yet believe men can become pregnant and believe there’s 24 genders.

  21. 3b says:

    Fast: Park Ridge is exclusive and worth every dime. It is upper Bergen Co you know! It’s worth every dime just to get in that town.

  22. Fast Eddie says:


    I saw both of these stories. A woman impregnating another woman should worry men who identify as such. We’re irrelevant now. We were only good for taking out the garbage and bringing home a paycheck. That nuisance about needing our sperm to keep the species going is now off the table! White males will be exterminated first.

    As for the Lia Thomas dude… um… chick, her workout schedule will no doubt be marketed, garnering him… urr… her, with millions. How did she get so muscular? Perhaps we’re witnessing another scientific first! Definitely woman of the year!

    Funny, last night I was reading about the lifespan of the sun in-depth and what would occur to our planet in various stages of days and weeks if the sun was abruptly snuffed out. Of course, the article mentioned how it is scientifically impossible for the sun to burn out instantly as it has another 5 billion years left. But with this unprecedented scientific breakthroughs above, anything is now possible! At the rate these scientific absurdities are occurring, I think the sun switching off might be a good thing.

  23. grim says:

    I feel bad for AOC – she has it so hard, it’s so expensive to do her job, and the $179k salary, $995k in permissible allowances and expenses, and whatever else she can spend under the umbrella of campaign funds, DOESN’T EVEN BEGIN to cover the so-very-expensive lifestyle required, no, DEMANDED, of a congresswoman.

  24. grim says:

    Was nice knowing you Facebook…


    I barely scroll through Instagram lately, and Facebook is nearly worthless these days.

  25. grim says:

    I’ll tell you, our own ad spent on FB and IG is 1/4 or less of what we were previously doing.

    It simply doesn’t yield anymore. The privacy wars have killed the effectiveness of FB/IG advertising.

    We had very specific ad targeting rules, which worked very, very well. Now, it’s basically just casting a geographic net, having to spend far far far more money to get even remotely the same impact, so we don’t.

    Funny, old school paid search is back on our radar. Think Google, Bing, Map-apps, etc etc.

    We hated doing print ads, we rarely did them, and usually only because we had an affinity for the publisher (Edible Jersey for example), that’s probably back on the radar now. Previously, $1000 would be far better spent on FB, you could stretch that quite a bit. Now, we’ll just save the social media ad spend and buy a full page ad in the fall.

    Crazy to think that print media is going to see increased ad spend.

    No surprise why so many are shifting money to paying influencers on a platform, as opposed to spending on ads on that same platform. Better bang for the buck, better ability to target affinities and audiences by picking the right influencer (it has nothing to do with who they are, only the profile of their followers).

  26. 3b says:

    Grim: AOC complains about paying for 2 residences, so tough on her salary, what about her fiancé?? She goes from Barista to Congresswoman, and an authority on every topic. She is absolutely painful to listen to!! Totally clueless!!

  27. grim says:

    Worth noting, the bulk of our customers are IG now vs. FB. FB was a good platform to target potential new customers, but ultimately it was in IG that we connected and engaged. Thus – IG is still a good platform for engaging with that existing customer base, but it’s not necessarily a great platform for growing that.

    I can see how companies ramped budgets when they saw FB/IG ad performance start falling off – I just question how sustainable that is. Nobody wants to pay a lot more, for far worse performance.

    Done zero with TikTok, can’t stand that platform.

  28. Bystander says:


    My 7 year old watched space videos and read universe books for years between age 2 – now. I learned more in those years than any other time in my life. Fascinating stuff. That said, a solar flare is more likely to wipe away Earth. It would be like a pimple popping for Sun but we would be vaporized, even trans-swimmers.

  29. Bystander says:

    He is now almost 8 and starting to flounder with space, much less interested. It is sad. All kids have bey blades and he is starting to care more about that crap. Sucks.

  30. grim says:

    My 9yo wanted to skip Disney and drive down to Cape Canaveral to watch a SpaceX rocket take off. I was very happy to oblige, but I couldn’t get tickets short notice, and the launch was scrubbed due to storms anyhow.

    I told her the next time we can get gantry observation tickets, we’ll fly down together just to see a launch.

    I’ll do everything I can to keep her interest going, I think that’s worth every penny.

  31. Trick says:

    Grim, 9? Been on this blog way to long :)

  32. grim says:

    No kiddin

  33. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. existing-home sales fall for the fifth straight month in June

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting sales to be 5.36 million.

    This is the weakest level of sales since June 2020, during the COVID-19 lockdown. Outside of the pandemic, the sales number weakest since January 2019.

    Compared with June 2021, home sales were down 14.2%.

    This is the fifth straight monthly decline and comes as mortgage rates have spiked and inventories remain low.

    Key details: The median price for an existing home rose to a record $416,000 up 13.4% from June 2021. Prices are continuing to rise but are at slower rate.

  34. Fast Eddie says:


    The more I read this stuff, the more rabbit holes I go down. If the sun was gone tomorrow, plant life on the planet is gone in a week or two. During the 2nd week, the earth averages zero degrees. Within one year, down to -400 F. Oh, and no orbit anymore. We’ll continue to rotate but hurl through space like a ball on a string released from your hand after twirling it around your head.

  35. BRT says:

    I saw a night launch from Disney about 20 years back

  36. BRT says:

    By, I recommend a trip to DC. Best museums and all are free. But air and space museum is so good, it may reignite that interest. Maybe get a telescope and go out on good nights.

  37. grim says:

    This place is incredible.


    I had a few hours layover in Dulles, so I went, did not regret.

    SR-71, Concorde, Space Shuttle – tons more. Absolutely insane to walk through. The sheer density of aircraft packed into that building is jaw dropping.

  38. Juice Box says:

    Ugh my mom now has Covid, she was up in the Catskills at my aunts home, they went out three nights to the local bar the shamrock house. Doctor just sent over the Plaxovid script, so far mild symptoms.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    I went to a NASCAR race in New Hampshire this past weekend and four of these flew overhead at the conclusion of the National Anthem. I thought the cars were loud… heck no.


  40. 3b says:

    Juice: Sorry about your Mom getting Covid. Hope it’s mild as you say. Had some legendary weekends in the Shamrock House years ago. Absolute animal house!!

  41. Hold my beer says:


    Sorry to hear about your mom.

    Ask her to eat and drink probiotic foods like kefir, yogurt, and kombucha. The people who get long Covid or serious digestive issues from it tend to have poorer gut health and Covid makes that even weaker.

    And at the bottom of this article is some supplements this Dr recommends if you catch Covid.


  42. No One says:

    Clearly the solution for climate change is to put some thrusters on the earth and put it in a more distant orbit from the sun. Then the statists will have to think of a new excuse for controlling everything you do.

  43. Libturd says:

    Headed into the Intex.


  44. Bystander says:

    Amazon has completely shutdown their customer service chat. You can only reach them by phone call. Very strange. I wonder why.

  45. Juice Box says:

    Beach is a scorcher, but at least the water is cold. Lavallette house we rented just sold for a cool million in Sept, was nicely updated 1985 model , we picked it up for $4500 for the week due to a last minute cancellation on Facebook many other houses are $8000 + a week same area. New homes here start now at 2 mil, and there are billboards along rt 35 for new $10 million dollar ones as well. The building never stops at the shore it seems. Seaside Heights is dumpy as ever despite efforts to fix it up, but everything north of it is extremely expensive. The towns and homes are all immaculately kept as well, perhaps better than I have seen as long as I have been coming down here since the 1970s…

  46. chicagofinance says:

    Consumers Can Just Say ‘No’ to High Gas Prices

    Commuters today have far more options to curb fuel usage than they did decades ago. They hold the key to alleviating the world’s fuel-shortage problem.

    Although the evidence is preliminary, it looks as if many Americans might have responded to the jump in gasoline prices by reducing trips to work.

    One of things that makes high gasoline prices so difficult for families is that, unlike something like a TV that has shot up in price, they have no option but to pay.

    But with the increased ability to work from home the pandemic has brought on, that isn’t as true as it was in the past. Indeed, although the evidence is preliminary, it looks as if many Americans might have responded to the jump in gasoline prices by reducing trips to work. It is a development that could have far-reaching repercussions that softens price volatility, pushing people’s gasoline bills lower than they otherwise would have been while putting a future cap on oil producers’ and refiners’ sky-high margins.

    Most Americans drive to work, and the expense adds up: Commuting-fuel use accounts for around 30% of gasoline consumption, according to a report from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economist Garrett Golding. Moreover, while people have always had some flexibility when it comes to their commutes—they can start carpooling or learn the local bus route—in the short run the options are limited. That is a big reason gasoline is considered relatively price inelastic versus many other items: When prices go up, demand goes down only so much.

    But many workers’ newfound ability to work from home at least some of the time changes the equation. When pump prices seem onerous, somebody who has been driving in to work three days a week could decide to go in for just two days, for example. That might be happening. A Census survey conducted over the 13 days ended April 11, when regular gasoline averaged about $4.13 a gallon, showed an estimated 67.3 million people worked from home at least once a week. In a survey conducted over the 13 days ended June 13, when a gallon averaged $4.94, the estimated number of people working from home at least once rose to 69.7 million.

    Over the four weeks ended July 8, implied motor-gasoline demand averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, down 8% from the same period last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Three months earlier, implied gasoline demand had been just 2.3% below year-earlier levels.

    Finally, it looks as if people are driving less. Data from the California Department of Transportation show the total number of miles traveled on California highways on weekday mornings in June, excluding truck traffic, was down 0.5% from a year earlier. That decline is particularly notable considering that, as of May, employment in California was 5.4% higher than in June of last year.

    U.S. gas prices have hit a record high and are showing no signs of going down. That’s largely because oil companies are no longer incentivized to drill more as oil prices rise. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains. Photo composite: Ryan Trefes
    Of course it is difficult to pinpoint exactly how much of the commuting decline is due to more people getting sick from Covid-19 versus those who are experiencing sticker shock from fuel prices. The latest variant—BA.5—is highly contagious, and more than 100,000 new Covid-19 cases are being reported each day. The actual number could be much higher since many people test at home. Data from Kastle Systems shows that office occupancy has recovered in fits and starts since the nadir seen in April 2020, with large dips corresponding to waves of Covid-19.

    Nevertheless, Christopher Knittel, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who has conducted research on consumer responses to gasoline-price changes, thinks the option to work from home has probably led to more price elasticity. That should reduce price volatility and, all else being equal, make prices lower as well.

    “It’s not much consolation for people paying $5 now, but what it tells us is the price spike would have been even higher,” he says.

    At the same time, consumers generally seem to have become more sensitive to gasoline prices, says energy economist Philip Verleger. He calculates that before 2000, spending on motor fuels as a share of total consumer spending almost doubled when gasoline prices doubled. In recent years, that effect has been halved such that a doubling of gasoline prices would yield just a 50% increase in motor-fuels spending. For oil producers and refiners, more price-sensitive consumers could affect their investment plans. Many are already baking in a lot of caution.

    The oil market historically had both inelastic supply and demand. In much the way fracking was the technological revolution that made it possible for oil supply to be more elastic, the adoption of hybrid work today could radically change the equation for demand.

  47. Trick says:

    Seaside was the destination for my sons prom and his entire HS, cant believe it is still the same as when we were in HS. Landlords gave the kids wristbands and only let the kids who rented in the house, he said several houses were kicked out the 1st day for letting other kids in.

  48. Juice Box says:

    Grim, get the tour instead with the museums, we’ll worth it the bus stops at several places to let you off, even at the beach. Tour may not be available launch day, as it’s too crazy there on launch day. For launch day just drive there and park for free on the side of the access road. You can park next right up next to the Kennedy center day of as overflow, watch the launch and skedaddle as quick as you can the traffic there on launch day is worse than midtown gridlock. 3+ hours on and off the access roads.

  49. Crushednjmillenial says:

    6:02 – does the landlord sit outside the house all weekend?

    When I was in high school, as soon as one of the guys turned 18, we rented a 2 bedroom house (sleeps 5? – I guess the couch counts for one?) and had 35 people stay there all weekend. So, prob 100 ppl in there during party times. For 3 nights of lodging or so, I paid like $12 or $23 something tiny like that.

    Before you had a guy who was 18 in your crew, you needed to deal with wristband stuff at the hotels.

    Sad to hear the kids these days are not able to have it the way it was – that wristbands are being enforced at houses.

  50. Juice Box says:

    Trick – We had our Post Prom weekend there too…

    This is the on star seaside dump I think, still looks the same after all these years, we had all the rooms rented and sat around the pool drinking Budweiser all day.


    A younger kid a sophomore jumped from the second floor and missed the pool as the railing bent, they were doing it all day successfully one at a time. I remember it like it was yesterday two boys jumped and the railing bent, one barely made it the other did not. He landed on his tailbone and broke that and two wrists, as he landed in a sitting position on the edge of the pool. I ended driving him to the hospital as I was not drinking yet that day with another concerned girl who knew him, and we stayed until his parents came later that night. My dad and his dad were friends too, Irish buddies from back in the Bronx that story I will save for another day.

  51. Trick says:

    He described the houses exactly as I remember them. 3 closet size bedrooms, small living room connected to a tiny kitchen, with a fenced in back yard.
    The one I remember the most was renting a house with a bunch of buddies and watching the Knicks playoff game and OJ chased kept interrupting.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    juice: speaking of high school, the You Tube algorhythm served this up. Never saw it before as MTV had the sanitized version. The money shot is in the moments after 3:10.

  53. Juice Box says:

    Beer and the rest thanks I am sending her a food delivery tomorrow including probiotic yogurt as she will eat that. Just off the phone with her now she sounds good and is eating dinner and taking the Pfizer meds, it’s two pills a day for five days. She is also enjoying the attention, everyone already found out about Covid and phone calls are piling in even from Ireland. On top of Covid it’s been tough we just buried another one of her brothers. It has been a long year two brothers passed away in Ireland and one here last month, and the last living brother in London had a stroke as well, this on top of the loss of many of her life long friends, this week it was the girlfriend that came via ship with her to NYC when they left Ireland at 17 years old.She is 85 now but still tough as nails, always took care of herself, if I was worried I would be there in a flash. My brother that lives nearby has been looking in on her.

    It won’t be Covid that gets her, it will be some Irish Step dancing.

  54. Juice Box says:

    CHI – never had cable never had MTV growing up it was not allowed, only time I ever saw that stuff was at the live shows in NYC. We were on mass transit in high school to NYC clubbing every weekend starting at 16 years old. You being a Queens boy knew that drill I am sure…

  55. Trick says:

    Juice, hope she is well soon. They are tough from over there.

  56. 3b says:

    Juice: Glad your Mom is doing ok. They are a hardy bunch from that generation from Ireland, and proud. Everyone is gone on my side except my Aunt who is 96, and in assisted living facility in Riverdale, her own studio apartment, still mentally sharp. The only other one on my side away from her is my Uncles wife Sister in a nursing home. My MIL is 83, and is going into mental decline , dementia, we had to move her from assisted living to a nursing home. Very sad to see it. She was 16 when she came, and then brought out her Brother and they in chain like fashion brought out additional siblings.

    They knew hard work and determination. Last week when I was in to see her she was talking about going home, at first we thought she meant her house, but she meant Ireland. It was the same with my Parents and Uncle and Father in Law, when they talked about home when they were declining , it was home to Ireland. Even after all there years here.

  57. Phoenix says:

    Juice hope mom gets well soon

  58. Phoenix says:

    In Atlanta. Gas 3.79 here. What are Jersey prices? Staying with friends. Like it here. Outside the circle. Massive construction. Modern, fresh and youth oriented. I don’t fancy blondes but if you do it’s paradise. Another vote for WFH from my friend-media is his business-put everything on facebook for free he didn’t need or want. Hired a company to come in and shred documents. Works from home or on his boat on this massive lake near here that makes Hopatcong look like a toilet at a concert venue.

    Newark airport was fun. Just watching The people going through the TSA line- American adults are now like third graders with less of an attention span. Amount of times the TSA agent had to repeat themselves for the simplest thing was amazing. They have more patience than I have.

    AOC- Just another entitled feminist who is so “female centric “ arrogant and entitled. i’ll give her this much she has nice legs. I would take Tulsi Gabbard over her any day.

    my kid is into stranger things. Turns out they filmed it in Atlanta. today we go visit the site of the filming locations. Great way to explore the area.

    Grim, On our discussion about liquor licenses down here my friends told me 10 K you can buy as many as you like. Microbreweries everywhere. Not like jersey. much more tax friendly supposedly that is how they got Stranger Things to film down here.

  59. Juice Box says:

    BTW – Did a half day yesterday with my kids and cousins at Six Flags Hurricane Harbor. Buy two tickets and get one free so $100 all in for three people without meals. My sister’s company paid for our $$$$ Cabana as she was working while on vacation. We were one of the few people that could afford a Cabana so it was quiet in there in the shade….Really hot day was 99 F and medium crowded about 1/2 hour lines. Some people are just crazy….Wearing masks while swimming in the lazy river. There were also used cheap masks floating in the wave pool….ack.. I know what to expect from doing all the water parks in Florida but that place is a notch below the Florida parks and barely a notch above the Seaside Heights water park. We ate before we went in thankfully the food was nasty looking, smelling and beyond expensive $14 for two hot dogs..I know they have meal plans and all but I don’t care to go more than once every few years.

    Place was not full of riff raff as BRT put it….. there were plenty of interesting tats, but was mostly families having fun, our kids enjoyed themselves for sure and even an old man like me likes a nice waterslide or volcano water ride..

    Will be back at the Lavallette beach tomorrow for a last hurrah….

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