From the Record:
New Jersey taxpayers won’t find relief in Phil Murphy’s budget
Gov. Phil Murphy and Democrats in the state legislature are lauding themselves for providing relief and improving New Jersey’s economy with their recently passed state budget. Neither of those things are true. Let me explain.
If you are expecting tax relief soon, there isn’t any.
Checks labeled for property tax relief won’t be sent until May 2023. The only reason some of you might get one — it’s meant only for a select few — is that you paid more in taxes than ever before. That’s right. To fuel the Democrats’ massive $50.6 billion spending plan this year residents are taxed more than ever.
Real tax relief should be immediate and permanent, the result of cutting income tax rates and other taxes, or actually lowering property taxes instead of taking money from one pocket and putting less back in the other. That’s what their ANCHOR rebate program really does. It takes too much of your money then gives you back less than you paid. Murphy calls that tax relief. It isn’t.
…
Murphy, Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin and Senate President Nick Scutari recently spoke about how positive this budget will be for the economy, and how New Jersey’s economic growth is outpacing the nation. They made those claims on the same day that the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first quarter GDP for states this year.
The results: New Jersey’s economy shrunk by 2.2%, while the overall U.S. economy contracted 1.6%.
In fact, New Jersey is faring worse than every other state on the East Coast. If it were not for West Virginia and Kentucky, New Jersey would have the worst economy in all the eastern United States. All of the high taxes are creating as bad an economic environment as the heart of Appalachia, despite having the best location in the country for a vibrant economy.
First
Went for a morning run ..Sprig Lake to ocean Grove and Back. Beautiful sun rise ….
Visiting Atlanta
Staying with friends. Like it here. Outside the circle. Massive construction. Modern, fresh and youth oriented. I don’t fancy blondes but if you do it’s paradise. Another vote for WFH from my friend-media is his business-put everything on facebook for free he didn’t need or want. Hired a company to come in and shred documents. Works from home or on his boat on this massive lake near here that makes Hopatcong look like a toilet at a concert venue.
Newark airport was fun. Just watching The people going through the TSA line- American adults are now like third graders with less of an attention span. Amount of times the TSA agent had to repeat themselves for the simplest thing was amazing. They have more patience than I have.
AOC- Just another entitled feminist who is so “female centric “ arrogant and entitled. i’ll give her this much she has nice legs. I would take Tulsi Gabbard over her any day.
my kid is into stranger things. Turns out they filmed it in Atlanta. today we go visit the site of the filming locations. Great way to explore the area.
Grim, On our discussion about liquor licenses down here my friends told me 10 K you can buy as many as you like. Microbreweries everywhere. Not like jersey. much more tax friendly supposedly that is how they got Stranger Things to film down here.
My friend who owns Flounder Brewing hosted Tom Kean the other day, one of the original sponsors of the craft brewery legislation in NJ.
Who, not coincidentally, says the ABC has no idea what the original intent of the legislation was, and that their regulations are absolutely not in line with what legislators wanted to create.
Yet, the ABC continues to parrot the licensed restaurant associations talking points word for word. They also continue to spin fud about breweries wanting to serve food, which none actually do.
This article is nonsense, we have the best location in the country, and the smartest savviest people anywhere. Everyone wants to live here , and open a business here. We are Jersey, simply the best. I can’t believe the guy who wrote this article talks crap about our Garden State. Sounds like sour grapes to me . There is a price to live here man among the best and the wealthiest people in the world. If you can’t afford it, then just move and stop talking crap about Jersey.
It seems like everyone I know who’s retiring or approaching retirement is moving out of NJ. But then, I see houses listed in desirable neighborhoods and they’re gone in a blink. The onset of the remote worker may change this game, though. Every time I think I have it figured out, something else runs counter. Is it access to services, medical care, etc. that draws to the area? We all could post anecdotal stories of pros and cons but I’m stumped trying to figure it out.
Amazon to buy primary health care provider One Medical for roughly $3.9 billion
Amazon hopes to reinvent the “healthcare experience,” from how people book appointments, to the experience of being seen by a physician.
Free health care with your prime subscription?
I thought they would be doing far more with PillPack by now, but the health care industry doesn’t exactly move quickly.
I can absolutely see Amazon wanting to be a PBM and/or own the pharma distribution space – it completely fits their middleman, toll-taker strategy.
“Yet, the ABC continues to parrot the licensed restaurant associations talking points word for word. They also continue to spin fud about breweries wanting to serve food, which none actually do.”
In flyover country, ie. where relative reasonableness and freer markets rule. Wonderful craft breweries, nearly all serve food (allowed), and most will have live music on weekends (also allowed).
Separate note, missed this one, Menendez’s son is going to Congress? You people are unbelievable. We had a conversation about endemic faults the other day in corporates? JFC, look at your own house.
See, this where the tubby muppets need to be repeatedly smacked with an open hand. They were originally were asking 794K a few months ago and currently at 730K for this small, nothing split. 525K, that’s my final offer.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/ridgewood/388-cedar-ave-ridgewood-nj-07450–2006515433
Lib, good to hear on the quality of management being a criterion.
One suggestion, go to more subjective measures to avoid substantively equivalent results…ie, some of the measures you use for management are very similar to your financial criteria so they are not independent measures, they will return with too high correlation the same result. While you would appear to be looking at two distinct measures of five for a company you may be more likely looking at one and giving it 2x weight…
I see this with others I trade with occasionally using TA…someone will tell me how four of their TA signals were flashing yet the trade didn’t work…pull back the covers and, yeah, they had four different TA measures but they were all momentum based, so duplicative, meaning they were trading effectively solely on one signal and not four….
Food for thought. With your personal background and corporate experience you can smell bullshit a mile away, grab the proxy statement and 10K and give a read of the composition and background of management and the Board. Worthwhile.
Separate note, missed this one, Menendez’s son is going to Congress?
There’s corruption to be done, who better to carry on the family business?
150K overpriced. You want to pay $3900 per month after 20% down for this place?
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/fair-lawn/4-van-saun-pl-fair-lawn-nj-07410–1002844275
In flyover country, ie. where relative reasonableness and freer markets rule. Wonderful craft breweries, nearly all serve food (allowed), and most will have live music on weekends (also allowed).
Troegs, right outside of Hershey, was an incredible place.
Kona Brewing on Maui as well, wow, what an operation.
Another dreamer… with no backyard. It looks like Staten Island. “Yo Nicky, how’s Marie?”
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/saddle-brook/5-rosario-ct-saddle-brook-nj-07663–2006733442
Treehouse too. Nice setup for some of the better NEIPAs to be found…and some of their specialty stuff which is not where I usually lean are very good.
Grim: A micro brewery just opened in Westwood, have not been there yet. Sounds like it will be tough for them. I have been to Defiant in Pearl River, and they have some nice brews there, and food and entertainment.
Fast
Look at this house for 729k. Fancy neighborhood in a great school system.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2724-Vela_Grand-Prairie_TX_75054_M78695-60970?ex=2945450695
Around these parts it doesn’t matter what condition your house is in, it’s going to get demolished or taken down to the studs. Most are cash buyers but they would finance after the purchase because the money was cheap, not so much of that now. Luckily our town passed an historical ordinance so you can’t raze a home built before 1945 and if you take it to the studs you have to put it back to the original look on the outside. Some truly amazing restorations being done on century old homes around here.
Deal has no such ordinance where the Chera’s just built the ugliest house on the coast. Black stucco, red tile roof, with landscaping that blocks their view of the ocean.
Grim,
In most states, the microbrewery has replaced the tavern. Though, many have playgrounds and menu options for kids too. We often chill at these microbreweries as a family or meet my siblings in these types of places. Why not? The food tends to be good and reasonably priced because the profit is in the beer. All the meanwhile, you are getting excellent marketing and building brand loyalty. I’ve even seen some give free food and NA drinks to designated drivers. Plus, many have vegetarian options, where most restaurants still do not. Also, they cater to dog owners too. The last two we visited were SEED in Atlantic City which is completely chill and Twin Elephant in Chatham. Like you said, the one’s in Pennsy are awesome. Almost all serve food and are cheap.
If you are ever up in Portland Maine, the most incredible operation I have seen so far is Allagash. Though not really a micro brew any longer, their facility and tour is unreal. They also have a miniature version of their brewing apparatus so that workers can experiment with their own brewing ideas. Even the janitors get a chance. Everyone who works there votes on the new concoctions and they mass produce and release the winners at the brewpub. If they sell well there, they distribute them for sales. The creator gets a huge share of the profits. Just a very cool operation with a great history and really delicious Belgians.
Lefty,
I agree with your advice and always peruse the 10Qs and ALWAYS read the dog and pony show conference call transcripts. The larger my position, the more research I do after my stock selection guide.
Juice,
“I remember it like it was yesterday two boys jumped and the railing bent, one barely made it the other did not. He landed on his tailbone and broke that and two wrists, as he landed in a sitting position on the edge of the pool”
Crazy…it reminds me of video of Steve-O from Jack@$$ fame. How this dude is alive is beyond me. Check out flaming flip at night. He barely hit pool from looks of it. There is more than clip. Interesting dude. Came from wealthy fam with Dad as Pepsi exec. Dad sound disappointed but geez, your son is a a master skateboarder, master diver, master juggler and now world famous performer. Lots of drugs and mental issues but lazy and shiftless he was not.
shorturl.at/qrT46
ECB surprises with 0.50% rate hike
Biden has covid
Beer,
That house is indeed a house. But, Texas has too many deplorables and I believe it’s not so easy to murder your baby there. See, in the blue states, there’s a price to pay for the privilege of being among the ivory tower elites. We’re woke here. We’re edumacated! We’re in the know. We believe in science and believe that love as love and all that jazz!
Walter has covid! Did he get it from Corn Pop?
Fast
That’s actually a pricey house for this area. I bet that house is more energy efficient than the ones you posted too. Seeing those old dumpy houses in Jersey makes me depressed.
Lib: And will be buying debt of struggling economies like Italy and Greece. Oh boy!!
Lib, you make that PYPL buy yet? Earnings on 8/2 IIRC.
In most states, the microbrewery has replaced the tavern.
In 10 out of 10 cases, it’s because the tavern was stuck in 1993, or even earlier, and refused to change.
I’ve been in a ton of dying bars lately. Places that were modeled after Bennigans, still look like Casey O’Tooles, Jersey City Corner Bar circa 1957, and appeal to nobody. Yet, they are all screaming that breweries “stole their business”.
These places have no sense of character, no brand, no authenticity, and they don’t get it.
Was up at Allagash a few years ago, to this day the white is my wife’s favorite beer.
Pretty cool place is the barley creek brewing near camleback. In the summer they have an outdoor Pavillion with a ton of stuff to do. Minny wiffleball field for homerun derby, corn hole, bochi, etc
Left.
Got in on 7/14 at 69.398.
Sadly, 4-figure position. But she’s flying already. That was a pretty easy call actually. How did you find it? I did through a screener looking for companies with consistent earnings, overly beat down. I call that screener “burnt steak.”
Trick,
Grim is right. It’s not just the beer. It’s the innovation.
“These places have no sense of character, no brand, no authenticity, and they don’t get it.”
They also have shit Sysco food. I am so sick of the SYSCO menu. It’s still available at Friday’s, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Uno’s, and at any interstate exit where there is more than one 3-star hotel.
How many shitty NJ restaurants will take you on a tour of the kitchen to show you how they prepare your food? They’d tackle you before you even got to the kitchen door, god forbid you got back there and saw what it looked like.
I’ll spend an hour with a customer, walking them through every part of the process, let them smell and taste from barrels, watch equipment run.
Want to see our grain, here goes, grab a handful and see for yourself. Better yet, head up to Anderson Farms on Rt 23 in Sussex and ask for Tor, Tor will show you exactly where he grows our corn and rye for us, and tell you everything you ever wanted to know about growing grain in NJ.
Authenticity, honesty, and experience are EVERYTHING today.
That same menu was formerly available at Bennigan’s, Houlihan’s, Charley’s, etc.
We are a herd of creatures of habit.
I’m all for some greasy as shit fried food, if that’s your angle as a restaurant, fucking OWN IT.
Tierney’s in Montclair – completely owns who they are – nothing at all unique but they’ve kept up with the trends, cater to their customers, and they know what the fuck they are doing. Doesn’t hurt that the food is good too. Nothing fake, no bullshit branding, nobody is going to call the place dated. Treat your customers right, you’ll have a loyal following.
Doesn’t hurt they did a Silk City takeover a few months back either.
Worked at both bennigins and chilis growing up. Chilis was the best few years of my life. It had nothing to do with the resturant but the people I worked with and what we did after hours. Living near Suffern were the bars were open to 4am, bartender would close down and we would play liars poker until the bread man came. Now I can stay up past 10.
Speaking of Montclair.
We did TONS with Ariane Kitchen in Montclair – worked on gin drinks with them ALL time. Pharmacie Bar – great friends with them – we just did an event with them (we sponsored) there a few days ago – Jerzy Slingers bartender competition. Amanti Vino on Church regularly carries our stuff, and special releases. We had a drink on our menu forever called “Make it to Obals” (Bloomfield but close enough). There were plenty of nights where Silk City closed at 10, and we took everyone still there with us over to Egans. We’ve hosted most of these places bartenders at SCD for their own showcase nights.
Places that get it, get it, and are very successful. None of these places would even remotely call us a competitor. We work together, we collaborate, we have the same customer bases.
Working in the back of a restaurant is crazy shit. Bourdain was not lying.
Day two of the PAXLOVID treatment for my mom, stuff works like a charm she is back to yelling now and barely coughing. On a sad note Cablevision went out yesterday in her home all of it TV, Internet and Phone. I spent a few hours with Cablevision support this morning and NO JOY.
Since she has Covid no visitors so the tech won’t be out until next week. I am having my brother pick up a prepaid wifi hotspot at Walmart today and drop it in her mailbox so at least she has internet.
My Aunt also has Covid tested positive last night, she and my mom were partying all weekend in the Catskills fortunately she has mild symptoms. My two first cousins were with them as well a the Shamrock House, both them and their families are negative for Covid so far.
Is that Kamala I hear dancing a jig right now?
Coast – I saw that monstrosity when I did my drive down there last week. Speaking of crazy looking they knocked down the Windmill and shopping mall on Ocean Ave in long Branch to build these over by 7 Presidents park.
Aqua Vista medium rise condos and these The Reef.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/long-branch/200-ocean-blvd-n-24-long-branch-nj-07740–2557687099
We used to rent a Summer house there right on Ocean terrace 30 years ago a bunch of Monmouth U Students…none of us could have predicted they would the entire neighborhood would be bought up and knocked down.
Coast – I saw that monstrosity when I did my drive down there last week.
Lolololol
Holy shit, look at the renderings compared to the street view, they aren’t even remotely building units that look like the renderings. The windows are 1/4 the size, it looks absolutely terrible.
Inspired by Malibu and Hawaii’? Fuck no they aren’t. Inspired by big box mart.
Well, you’d have to be a dumb executive to afford it.
BTW, I think a microburst just pulled through our area. Lots of hail, power outages, trees down, etc. Crazy winds. Now the sun is out. What is this? Florida?
Keep posting on the old thread..lol..
BTW – Did a half day yesterday with my kids and cousins at Six Flags Hurricane Harbor. Buy two tickets and get one free so $100 all in for three people without meals. My sister’s company paid for our $$$$ Cabana as she was working while on vacation. We were one of the few people that could afford a Cabana so it was quiet in there in the shade….Really hot day was 99 F and medium crowded about 1/2 hour lines. Some people are just crazy….Wearing masks while swimming in the lazy river. There were also used cheap masks floating in the wave pool….ack.. I know what to expect from doing all the water parks in Florida but that place is a notch below the Florida parks and barely a notch above the Seaside Heights water park. We ate before we went in thankfully the food there was nasty looking, smelling and beyond expensive $14 for two hot dogs..I know they have meal plans and all but I don’t care to go more than once every few years.
Place was not full of riff raff as BRT put it….. there were plenty of interesting tats, but was mostly families having fun, our kids enjoyed themselves for sure and even an old man like me likes a nice waterslide or volcano water ride..
Will be back at the Lavallette beach tomorrow for a last hurrah….may head out on a Jet ski did the kayaking and paddle board already…
Walked through a parking lot completely crawling with spotted lanternflies last night.
Don’t bother trying to kill them, we’ve lost this war. There were thousands of them.
Lib, similar screening. I’m out again, no desire to hold through earnings (although will likely write some options going into ER depending on price action).
Also exited DIS over yesterday and today…two weeks, shares up 7% +/-, options trade I had on obviously much more juice…one of those “too much, too fast, too stupid” to not take off….
Bumming, I was tied up most of last week and missed the SPX bouncing almost to the dollar off its LT trend going back to 2018…I do believe the Fed will be well received, calming markets. Upside next Wed provided we don’t continue to run up into the presser…hanging out waiting for it come off a bit to put on the position I should have last week but running out of rope….
Still hanging onto my META even with that up nearly 20pts and really juiced as again an options trade…position size getting large but feel alright about it…Also doesn’t hurt I’m protected for no loss (and tiny gain) down to 120 or so….
Other than that I’ve been sitting here trolling for new opportunities…
Lib – re: microburst. I need some free water for the pool and lawn. My pool lost lots of water this week…My lawn is surviving because I have sprinklers the rest of the town is starting to look like Arizona…we missed all the storms that passed thru New Jersey over the last few weeks it’s very dry down here.
Well that was truly a wild one. Non-stop firetrucks. Had to almost get an inch of water in ten minutes. Will know in an hour or so how much came down.
Grim Just down the road from there look at this going up..Beyond expensive…..I don’t know what to call it…ultraluxe?
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/long-branch/390-ocean-ave-1802-long-branch-nj-07740–2581549216
Libturd says:
July 21, 2022 at 11:58 am
“They also have shit Sysco food. I am so sick of the SYSCO menu. It’s still available at Friday’s, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Uno’s, and at any interstate exit where there is more than one 3-star hotel.”
All true, and although I’m not a fan of any them, there are times that the sameness of these joints is somewhat comforting. When you pull into your Hampton Inn at 9:00pm in Richmond, or Topeka, or anywhere else, and there’s an open Applebee’s across the street, that mediocre burger and fries is sufficient. And, anecdotally, women enjoy these places because of the cocktails; they couldn’t care less about the beer or the bourbon, and are content with a crummy salad as long as the place has a long list of sweet, colorful cocktails.
Rotation was reported in Bloomfield and Newark. That was a crazy little storm. Haven’t seen hail like that since the 90s.
Long Branch. This is crazy. As a kid, we used to go there since they didn’t charge to use the beach at the West End. It was pretty dumpy back then.
Lib – Those guys are trying to corner the real estate market literally in several towns. Just take a look at this one in Brooklyn. There is simply no reason to pay that much money other than trying to drive the comps higher and higher.
https://therealdeal.com/2022/07/19/jeff-sutton-buys-gravesend-home-from-chera-family-for-14m/
Just got a robo call from the Water company, we are now on alternating days for watering..As I mentioned most of the storms last few weeks passed us by..
Here is the Swimming River Reservoir over by Bruce Springsteen’s house….looks to be dropping quickly. Hope we get some rain…
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01407498/#parameterCode=62614&period=P365D
Juice, we’ve had 4 storms fizzle out right before arriving on the PA/NJ border. I’ve had to water my gardens quite a bit. Usually, I rarely water at all. The lack of rain has made it so my garden is completely disease free, but this is getting exhausting. I’m fine with my lawn going dormant. I don’t mind a month off of mowing.
Ground nice and hard and dry – going to make for some nice flooding when the deluge comes
Lib…OK, this is where I usually hurt myself, having a really good run and then becoming a gunslinger and forcing situations that don’t exist…anyway, took a position in VZ ahead of ER on the idea that it going down in sympathy with T took some decline out of the sails for tomorrow…
Also, look at HCA, especially if she declines tomorrow on earnings. I stepped in front of that one…all good attributes as a company, stupid cheap forward multiple (10.6x) represents no one believing their estimates as they took them down last quarter and the stock plunged (top line and business fundamentals fine, got squeezed on labor). This is a high enough quality company/management to know that if they fuck the Street twice (ie, another 20% down report) they are dead, so I would anticipate the numbers won’t be horrible as if they were this time they would pre-announce. In on options…
Grim – re: “There’s corruption to be done, who better to carry on the family business?
How about receiving a award for it? Might as well….
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/07/21/2483853/0/en/Beer-Institute-Names-Senator-Bob-Menendez-as-2022-Beer-Champion.html
VZ has screwed me so many times over the years. I swear they must cook their books. It’s such a quality company, nice dividends, relatively predictable earnings with frequent beats, but stock never moves. I think I owned it at 47 when I lived in Los Angeles in the 90s. Without looking, I’m sure their fundamentals are fine. For a sympathy play, you are probably okay, but you are not going to get rich.
HCA is impossibly cheap here unless they blow earnings tomorrow, which is both unlikely and still has limited downside as they are fairly profitable. Pretty safe bet. I’ll dig deeper tonight, but my healthcare stocks continue to be my best performers (among my club stocks).
I dumped VZ last year after holding it for 10 years.
I worked for VZ for a few years since then their stock finally came back it took 20 years to recover. They have more debt than almost any company 140 + Billion, the only company worse than them I think is AT&T..
Their exec’s run that place out of Basking Ridge.. the offices in NYC are just for the Board of directors….as if they even need offices….
A bunch of my cousins work for Verizon. My one cousin interned there in 1999, at the time, she was the only female on the floor. Very odd, they held meetings stating that somebody has to buy her lunch/gift for her every day. The instant she graduated, they gave her a 120k salary. She then got them to hire the rest of her siblings and cousins. My one cousin who was a college dropout went back to Willy P and finished 5 credits to get his graphic design degree and was instantly thrust into another 120k a year job. Whatever department they were in, was a pure patronage pit. Later on, she got caught DUI and her license was suspended was permitted to work from home before well before that was even a thing. I’ve met a lot of the people in that department back in the day. They all love coca!ne and booze.
So I rolled the dice, left the sketchy charter school I was at for two years during lockdown. The place that made me buy my own supplies while paying me $25k under scale while commuting 25 miles each way.
I just accepted a year contract at a top ranked public high school 8 miles from my house. Whew!!!
That’s the way it goes!
https://youtu.be/0ONtveq6qaQ
Ex
Congrats.