Recession Day?

From the WSJ:

Is the U.S. in a recession? GDP report will give us clues

On Thursday, we’ll get an important report card on the U.S. economy. 

GDP, or gross domestic product, tells us how much the economy grew or shrank in the previous quarter. 

In the first three months of the year, GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6%. That contraction startled economists and investors alike. 

Now, there are fears that the economy contracted for a second quarter in a row. 

“A common definition of recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press. “When we’ve seen that, there has usually been a recession.”

But Yellen notes that things are different now in the U.S. economy. “When you’re creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession,” she said.

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136 Responses to Recession Day?

  1. grim says:

    From the FT:

    US expected to dodge technical recession with weak second-quarter growth

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    The US is expected to report weak second-quarter growth on Thursday following a contraction in the first three months of the year, avoiding a so-called technical recession but still reflecting a slowdown in the economy.

    A Bloomberg survey of economists found the median estimate for growth to be 0.5 per cent on an annualised basis, or a 0.1 per cent rise compared with the previous quarter — the measure used by other major economies. That follows first-quarter gross domestic product data showing the US economy unexpectedly shrank by 1.6 per cent.

  2. Juice Box says:

    It’s not a recession it is something else says the White House.

    Well than what is it? We don’t know what it is all we know it is not a recession or pre-recession.

  3. Juice Box says:

    Looks like I don’t have to water my garden this morning, it finally rained last night, ground is still pretty wet this morning as well the temps have dipped and is a nice 74 F this morning.

    My wife ran into a neighbor who’s lawn is completely green they have been watering it nightly at 1AM every day for 30 minutes per zone. He is going to have some water bill that is for sure.

  4. grim says:

    Should be a nice weekend down at the shore with highs in the (very) low 80s.

    Down in LBI this morning, 75 and the high is a mild 84. Should be a nice day.

  5. grim says:

    Speaking of LBI – the prices here are so out of control it’s insane.

  6. Juice Box says:

    Seems the LIV Golf Invitational at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster is NOT SOLD OUT.

    $ 75 (all fees included) per day ground passed are available as well as the three day pass for $200 (all fees included).

    The Chainsmokers will be performing there on Sunday as well, admission is included.

    We used to get PGA tickets comped all the time when they were in NJ or NY. Haven’t been in a while…..

  7. 3b says:

    And of course the market ponders the Fed comments overnight and don’t like them. I don’t know how anyone thought his comments were dovish.

  8. grim says:

    I remember biking past that disney world nonsense a few years ago.

  9. grim says:

    U.S. GDP shrinks at 0.9% annual pace in second quarter, below forecast

    That’s going to be tough for the WH to spin, big miss.

  10. leftwing says:

    3b, agree no pivot any time soon. But, I do actually listen to people and more importantly observe their actions. JPow is no Volkler…his first reaction and his makeup is not restrictive policy. Having said that yes, of course, we remain in a tightening cycle. My point was more toward the 20-25% of professionals who after the last meeting were predicting 100bps yesterday or anyone now forecasting an inter-meeting Jackson Hole increase. Neither had/has a chance of happening.

  11. Trick says:

    Looks like it may be back on, $7500 including companies that are over 200k cap

    U.S. Senate Democratic Deal Would Expand EV Tax Credits

  12. leftwing says:


    LOL. Well over 30 years in financial markets and that term never surfaced until the WH spin….since it’s likely coming from Yellen if you’re making shit up better might have been ‘peri-recession’ like perimenopause…she could even cut and paste the ad that flashed for me as I googled the term…

    “Women Over 40 – We See You, We Hear You, We Are You! Shop Effective Menopause Solutions! Menopause Is Inevitable. Suffering Is Optional. Get Perimenopause Treatment Now!”

    Same electoral target group, hell, maybe same medication.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Years ago I was in an LBI house next to that Disney Land house in Love Ladies. The owner at the time kept a stash of classic cars in his expansive first floor garage, old American muscle cars and a few imports mostly convertibles. This was all for show owner and his son would take them to the classic car show on LBI etc. It was a full time job for someone to come by and clean and rust proof them since they were parked right on the ocean. I remember they had an electronic rust protection system that was hooked up to each car in storage. The electric bill alone must have been a fortune.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Recession is officially here…don’t care if they don’t acknowledge it.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s messed up how rich people go and f’k it up for locals in cheap locations. They then have the nerve to pat themselves on the back for taking advantage of a cheap location by driving up the price and selling into it, only to do the same thing over again in another cheap location. Talk about locusts.

    “Mexico City is being flooded by Americans — including legions of remote workers drawn by cheaper rents.

    They’re transforming classic neighborhoods, the housing market and even racial dynamics.

    More and more, locals are asking them to please go home.”

  16. 3b says:

    Left: I understand. And you more than likely are right on the inter meeting hike, but it is interesting, that there is even chatter on that. As for pivoting ,no time soon, once Fed is done tightening, then it’s neutral, for a period of time. Inflation did not happen overnight, and it won’t be eliminated overnight. As for Powell vs Volcker, you are absolutely correct. Powel is no Volcker.

  17. Juice Box says:

    Surprised they cannot define a recession? Not really especially after they cannot define what a vaccine or even a woman is anymore.

    Since they have been busy for the last few years ever expanding the English language vocabulary they should just call it a trans-recession.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    U.S. economic activity contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q2, data from the Commerce Department showed Thursday.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of Q2 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 0.9% annualized decrease in economic growth for the three-month period ended June 30.

    Thank G0d we have the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” being passed!


  19. Juice Box says:

    Mexico City?

    We had an office there, one of our management team went down to do some work. A real gringo for sure ex-military and well in his 50s perhaps not so tough. He ended up taking a pipe to the head in a robbery, as he had gone out for dinner from his hotel one evening and probably drank too much.

  20. 3b says:

    Harris and Newsome are the two top choices to replace Biden if he does not run, according to a survey of Democrats. I guess they want to lose the election. I can understand to some degree Newsome, but Harris???

  21. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of WFH…Zuck really is putting his money where is mouth is.
    Q2 operating loss of $2.8B for the virtual reality metaverse division at META.

  22. Phoenix says:

    Since they have been busy for the last few years ever expanding the English language vocabulary they should just call it a trans-recession.

    Good one.

  23. Libturd says:

    MDC, a major single family home builder had this to say in their 10-q conference call.

    Mr. Mizel continued, “We experienced a year-over-year decline in net orders during the quarter, driven by a slowdown in demand, an uptick in cancellations and difficult order comparisons from the prior year period. The sharp increase in interest rates combined with a more uncertain economic outlook has taken a toll on consumer confidence, which is reflected in our net orders in the quarter. We believe these headwinds may persist for at least the remainder of the year and we are actively adjusting our operations to reflect this new reality.”

    Homebuilding operations across the country, including the metropolitan areas of Denver, Colorado Springs, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Riverside-San Bernardino, Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, San Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento, Washington D.C., Baltimore, Orlando, Jacksonville, Seattle, Portland, Boise, Nashville, Austin and Albuquerque.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Side effect of Trans-Recession:

    Woman and three young children, aged between five and 12, are found dead at a home in Connecticut by ‘distraught man’ who called 911

    It’s only money.

  25. Phoenix says:

    Trump incurs wrath of 9/11 families as he stages NYC party ahead of Saudi-backed LIV golf tournament at his Bedminster club today – 40 miles from Ground Zero

    Who cares? He is doing it for money.

  26. Juice Box says:

    3B – Dems I know some very wealth and raise money etc dislike Harris immensely, after all they made their money being capitalists so they could then spend it on Dem causes. Some even call her the Leftist Trojan Horse.

    From the Governor’s ranks I have heard mostly Gov Newsom, but also Gov Andy Beshar as some whispers of our own Gov Murphy..

  27. Phoenix says:

    Parents file $25 MILLION racial discrimination lawsuit against Sesame Street theme park claiming four characters including Rosita ignored their daughter during parade because she’s black

    25M. Yeah, it’s just money.

  28. No One says:

    I just bought a couple of LIV tickets for Sunday. Used the code LIVLOCAL25 to get a 25% discount. Looks like the easiest way for me to see professional golf in person this year, the course is only 20 minutes away from me.

  29. Phoenix says:

    Murphy/Harris for President.

    America is doomed.

  30. Phoenix says:

    Zelensky and wife raise eyebrows by posing for glossy Vogue cover with famed photographer Annie Leibowitz as Ukraine’s war against Russia rages on

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his wife Olen Zelenska’s decision to sit down for a Vogue photoshoot has divided the internet

    Many are pointing to the massive amounts of aid given to the war torn country since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February

    They say Zelensky’s decision to pose for the glossy shoot is frivolous and makes a mockery of the war

  31. leftwing says:

    So, covered my TDOC shorts from yesterday…half premarket in the 32s, half now in the high 33s…at the current price of 33.80 +/- that’s a decline of $9.00 or more than 20% overnight…

    The clueless arrogant undisciplined AARK founder holds about 15m shares (10% of float) across her two funds…including in her genomics fund an industry in which this unprofitable, specialized call center has zero exposure, experience, or business plan.

    So, today she lost her investors another $140 million as she fabricates a genomics business plan for a company that has none….

    If any registered firm, registered rep, or RIA here did what she did – market a security in this manner and lose their clients this amount of money – they would be sanctioned, fined, and likely have to make some restitution.

    How many more hundreds of millions – correction, billions – of dollars does demented grandma have to lose investors while violating basic securities regulations before the SEC steps in?

    BTW, shorting these shares yesterday was phenomenal…One of my top three earnings trades for at least the past two cycles….

  32. Juice Box says:

    No One – When you drive past the protestors give them the Arab hand sign for it was not me. Take your pointer finger and put it to your mouth and dart it up into the air and say “Wallah”….

    Saudi Royalty and rulers were exonerated by the 9/11 commission a long time ago. Sure they don’t want Biden at the memorial but really the golf outing?

    The Saudi Arabian investment fund holds tens of billions in US stocks alone. They should be protesting allot of people besides the golfers. Heck they hold a controlling stake in US electric carmaker Lucid Motors and invest heavily in American startups…

    Sure there may have been some individual people in Saudi Arabia who helped fund Bin Laden but we will never find out who or when that happened. That data is long gone or never existed so there is no money trail to follow anymore….

  33. No One says:

    “In addition to monetary demands, the lawsuit asks the court to compel the defendants to issue a formal apology to Black Americans, conduct psychological screenings to avoid hiring racially bigoted prospective employees and provide existing employees with mandatory cultural sensitivity training and employee educational courses “on the history of discrimination against Black people in America provided by a mutually agreed nationally acclaimed expert in the field of African and Black History and Culture.”

    Did Sesame Place guarantee everyone a f-ing hug?
    Sounds like this guy is a big fan of Ibram X. Kendi. Maybe that guy can make a theme park where white devils aren’t even allowed in.

  34. Libturd says:

    This is interesting. For all of those who want to hump Murphy’s leg. In 2016 Mercatus at George Mason U had NJ at 48th. Six years later, we are 49th.

  35. leftwing says:

    LOL, ‘trans-recession’!!!

    I love it. Can be anything it wants to be whenever it feels like it just by declaring so!

    And now no one can challenge the claim. less one be accused of being a recession-ist or recession-phobe.

  36. Juice Box says:

    I coined it first…It does not appear on a google search..
    I want my 15 minutes of fame…

  37. Juice Box says:

    re: Sesame Street

    Did they find out who was wearing the costume? Would love to know if the Sesame Street actor playing Rosita that day is even female or gasp whitey…

  38. Libturd says:

    No One,

    I saw the video on the news about a week ago about the Sesame Snub. I knew it would be followed by a monstrous reward. Loved how the parents said the ONLY reason they are making a big deal about this is so that no other kids will suffer.

    I looked at Gator and said, isn’t it possible the mascot just had to keep up with the parade movement and didn’t have the time to shake everyone’s hand?

    I think we have to wait for the verdict before we all jump on the insane train, though.

  39. leftwing says:

    “Mexico City? We had an office there, one of our management team went down…He ended up taking a pipe to the head in a robbery…”

    Fifteen years dated but I was down there more than a few times during a four month or so period…never a black car airport pickup but a black SUV with bulletproof windows…That was more disconcerting than the prospect of actual crime…anyway the explanation was not just crime but kidnapping for ransom…I offered that I really was neither that wealthy nor important and the explanation back was these sorts of crime against gringos had a very low threshold…I guess I found that comforting, lol…Unless that city has had a major change for the better (doubtful) I wouldn’t step foot in it let alone move there…

  40. BRT says:

    While the attempt to redefine terms to suit your agenda is despicable, people should have been equally offended on how they’ve used the Bureau of Labor and Statistics to underreport numbers to accomplish their same agenda. But now that even manipulated stats can’t make their case, they resort to flat out lying to your face.

  41. Libturd says:

    Watching that video again, everyone there deserves a million for having to watch that flaming male baton twirler.

  42. Juice Box says:

    Finally some good new dear old mom tested negative this morning for Covid, yesterday it was positive..

  43. Libturd says:


    Was in Mexico City once. It was populated like New Delhi, but felt so much more impoverished. My dad’s only business competitor was located down there and they often partnered on certain projects. Scary, scary place. Never felt scared for a moment in India, nor in Costa Rica, even in the poorest neighborhoods.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Leftwing- Our Mexican co-workers all middle class office workers who rode mass transit down there all had throw away phones and decoy wallets etc as the bus was robbed regularly….

  45. Phoenix says:


    I’m no fan of either of them.

  46. Libturd, Waiting for Covid says:

    My older son will test tonight and then me on Friday. So far, we somehow dodged a serious bullet. Viral load definitely plays a major role.

    For those who care to know the details. The family properly masks at all times when we are going to be exposed to anyone for more than a couple of minutes. I don’t when say running into Dunkin to pickup a coffee I preordered, nor does my older son, but Gator and the D always do. If I am going to be in a queue, I will always mask.

    Well we were first exposed to our friend and her son on Friday night at a very open aired, 40 foot ceilings, no walls, restaurant in the Borgata. We ate early to avoid the crowds and my family wore masks when not eating. We won’t eat out at home unless we are outside and this is like the third time in three years that we risked eating indoors in public. Gator and her saw a show on Friday night where Gator was probably the ONLY person in the entire theatre of about 2,400 to mask. On Saturday morning, we ordered breakfast to our room, where she came over and ate with us. It was a suite, so a very large room, but we all ate unmasked. Lunch was outside. Dinner was at another casino restaurant, this time at Bally’s. Also quite large and airy, but not as much as the first one. Wore masks except when eating for the most part. Sunday, ate breakfast on the beach, but we all hung out together under a canopy. Lot’s of hugs and handshakes and conversation. The covid infected friend felt symptoms on the way home on Sunday and tested faint positive on rapid test Sunday evening when she first told us. She is still pretty sick today and her son has had a persistent headache since Tuesday but is testing negative on the rapid.

    Somehow dodged the bullet most likely. Friday will be 6 days since exposure.

  47. leftwing says:

    “I think we have to wait for the verdict before we all jump on the insane train, though.”

    Think the filing of that lawsuit itself was the horn blow indicating the crazy train had already pulled out of the station…

    Juice, good news on your mom…on the trans-recession, full disclosure, I’ve already appropriated it with attribution (although I did not claim authorship myself)!

  48. Juice Box says:

    BTW – Was speaking to one of the soccer dads last night who works in NYC and takes the MTA Bus.. The Bus drivers a the MTA no longer take fares or even watch for fare cheats at all now, it’s a contactless system called OMNY that will be mandatory at all stations nad bus stops by 2024.

    My uncle who drove a bus up and down Broadway until he retired after putting in his 20 years used to have to stop the bus and kick fare cheats off the bus back in the days of tokens and cash. He used to carry a small bat…and if necessary call the cops etc. Today the MTA will raid a bus with a 1/2 dozen agents every once in a while and look for and fine fare cheats.

  49. Phoenix says:

    Saw a spotted lanternfly in Bergen county the other day. Looks like they have accomplished infesting the entire state now.

  50. Libturd, making sure I can be in the front row of the African American Pride parade says:

    Heck, George Floyd’s family got 27 million for the unlawful killing of their son. How do you get 25 million for getting fistbump snubbed?

  51. 3b says:

    Juice: Good news on your Mom!!

  52. Libturd says:


    I skim about 20 of them out of my pool every day. There is a weeping willow next to the pool and that’s one of their favorites. This year is going to be horrible. Last year, I hardly saw one in their pre-winged stage of development. Only really noticed once they flew. Nearly every bush and tree around my property is covered in the wingless variety. I mean, even weeds that I let grow have 100s of them on them. Once they start to fly, it’s going to be like Space Invaders all up in here.

  53. Phoenix says:

    Think the filing of that lawsuit itself was the horn blow indicating the crazy train had already pulled out of the station…

    Did the attorney take this case pro bono?

    You don’t do this without a lawyer…

  54. Phoenix says:

    Supposedly no predator wants to eat them, they taste like crap.

  55. leftwing says:

    “Did the attorney take this case pro bono?”

    LOL, you already know that answer, Phoenix!

    Also why the ask was so large…’settle’ for a nuisance charge to Sesame Street of $600k or so, lawyer gets $200k for a few dozen hours of paralegal work…

  56. leftwing says:

    Good news on the (lack of) transmission so far Lib…good luck to being firmly in the clear…

  57. No One says:

    This lawyer B’Ivory Lamarr might be someone you want to use for your next slip&fall lawsuit.
    He’s a “Lawyer 💼 Entrepreneur 💰Traveler 🛩
    Highly Favored 👑 Woke 👁 Believer 🙏🏽”

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    Saw a spotted lanternfly in Bergen county the other day.

    Killed one this morning.

  59. Libturd says:

    JetBlue – Spirit acquisition is fantastic. I fly to a lot of the places that only JetBlue flies direct. Adding Spirit and the option to fly directly out of AC is a fantastic option. There’s no better way to fly than out of tiny airports. Outside of a weather or mechanical delay, you are usually in the air within five minutes of your departure time. No lost bags, no delay waiting for them to get to the baggage claim and no mile long walks and monorail rides from the gate to the car. Parking too, is impossibly cheap. Long-term is $10 a day.

  60. No One says:

    Most people would call it recession. From the WSJ this morning:
    “The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row—a common definition of recession—as businesses trimmed their inventories, the housing market buckled under rising interest rates, and high inflation took steam out of consumer spending.

    Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, fell at an inflation and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That marked a deterioration from the 1.6% rate of contraction recorded in the first three months of 2022.”

  61. Juice Box says:

    Lawfirm Murphy, Falcon & Murphy out of Baltimore is just jumping on the train with a Baltimore family after the NY family claimed racism first with that other lawyer B’Ivory Lamarr.

    Watched the video again they also show the actor wearing the Rosita costume dancing with another actor who is Black. I bet there is loads and loads of footage of Rosita and some other actors some good as well as bad interactions. I would say it is a tough case to win or lose in court, and will only cost them $$$ to move forward. I am a legally quantifiable armchair expert myself, the more the media covers it the more ticket sales go down. In the end it will be a quiet settlement. Perhaps free Sesame Place discounted tickets and free food and drinks at the parks for life?

    Now a classic..and always a good 3 minute watch.

  62. leftwing says:

    Lots of bankers talking a good game on the consumer by way of their in-house data but actions speak louder than words…

    Think I mentioned here how a buddy got trimmed back on two Chase credit cards earlier this year when he let his balances run up toward limits over a couple months…they cut his lines hard even though he offered (and did) pay in full when he got the ‘under review’ call…

    So I’m traveling, open my emails after a few days of not looking at them and have about six from Chase…two (?) years ago I took out a promo card for travel miles/points signup offer, dropped the 3k or whatever right away and paid it off in that current cycle to lock the points. Put the card in a drawer, haven’t used it since then. No autopay, as I literally forgot it even existed….lol, I don’t even know where the physical is…

    Anyway, apparently the annual fee of $95 was waived for the first two years and it seems to have hit this cycle. So I had a new $95 balance on a card that has never had a balance. And I have another card from Chase I use actively – mid to high four figures monthly – that is always paid in full. The two are linked, I just checked online so Chase sees that history. Plus I’m over 800 credit score (and always have been for as long as I can recall).

    Anyway, due date was 26th and the emails starting hitting 25-27th…the one yesterday you would think I was AMC Theatres with a billion in debt and no way to repay…bright red, you missed a payment, etc, etc.

    Obviously paid it online right away but a five alarm fire over $95 for the above profile, with that immediate urgency?

    Banks – JPMChase at least – really battening down the hatches…regardless of how ‘optimistic’ they may see the consumer and their current spending habits and cash balances….

  63. Fast Eddie says:

    I’m in the most recession-proof line of business that exists on the planet. Plan a get-together and I will explain what I do for a living.

  64. 3b says:

    Left: Well that’s extreme to say the least. I read the other day, that Bank of America s consumer lending division customers have a higher credit profile than Chase. I would have thought it was the other way around.

  65. Juice Box says:

    Leftwing – loan loss reserves have increased at banks but nothing to scream about…

    Citibank for example has a huge amount of business from their private label credit card business. Home Depot, Best Buy, Wayfare, Macy’s etc, that division provides 25% of their consumer banking net income. They have increased their reserves but not like it was 2009.

  66. Juice Box says:

    Here is the Citigroup report dated July 15th. Their CEO said we are on the cusp of a recession.

    Page 5 branded card Net credit losses…and Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL Build)

  67. Juice Box says:

    Eddie – re: recession-proof

    That means you either turn tricks or work for the government.

  68. 3b says:

    Papaya King on the upper East side in the 80s, is closing , landlord redeveloping the property. Another part of old NYC will be gone.

  69. Juice Box says:

    Lib – Sandmann already got perhaps millions in settlements from NBC, CNN and even Bezos’s Washington Post. They settled because they would have been compelled to cooperate with discovery, and that is where the juice always is in cases like this..who said what internally from Producers, writers, journalists and the talking heads etc…

  70. leftwing says:

    “leftwing says:
    July 26, 2022 at 3:46 pm
    …Stepped into TGT this morning…feels like a replay of early June which I traded well…very similar levels/declines. Profit so long as the shares remain above 120 (down 20% from spot of 150)…”

    Shares up $9.00+ (6%) since two days ago on this trade, put on long after TGT declined on WMT miss…started exiting, getting 50% +/- of max profit.

    Should be out by EOD.

    Lib, need ideas brother…holding cupboard is getting bare…when you going to join me on some of these, trying to hand you money…

  71. Fast Eddie says:


    That means you either turn tricks or work for the government.

    Lol. Isn’t that one in the same?

  72. Libturds says:


    You play differently than me. Though I’m 39 days from coming into a quite a cash crop. Let me screen.

    You want shorts or longs?

  73. Juice Box says:

    lol – Musk should really buy Twitter or start his own.

    Going to get even worse on social media now.

    Zuckerberg during his earnings call said AI-recommended content from people you don’t follow will make up about 30% or more of users’ Facebook and Instagram feeds by the end of 2023. Your feeds are currently made up of about 15% AI-promoted content.

  74. Libturd says:

    Here ya go Left. Two long-term holds based on valuation.

    Darden Restaurants – no brainer

    Build-A-Bear Workshops – Stupid franchise that is printing money lately

  75. Libturd says:

    Sempra and ICLR – two short term shorts

    Thank me later.

  76. leftwing says:

    “Eddie – re: recession-proof. That means you either turn tricks or work for the government.”

    LOL, has to be booze.

    Lib, CNN and WaPo settled already with the kid IIRC…not sure on the underlying facts of the other news orgs that were in the suit (ie, how culpable they were vis-a-vis CNN/WaPo) but if the kid feels like it he can take it to the full 6th Circuit…No exoneration here for the Mainstream Left media…I’ll take any good stock ideas, either way, I’m agnostic to how the dollars come in…

    Re: Citi branding, holy lord, did I have a bad experience. Needed new tires, googling pops up a Goodyear offer of 75 off plus another 150 if I use their card…hey, why not? Shit show dealing with the most basic items with Citi…another card paid-in-full on the first bill and tossed into the drawer. You’d think if it were that large a profit driver they could get competent support…

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Schiff is right…

    “If #DonaldTrump were still president and U.S. GDP just contracted for a 2nd consecutive quarter, there’s no way the media would not be reporting it as a #recession. Instead, the left-wing media is spreading #Democratic propaganda to redefine recession to pretend we’re not in one.”

  78. Libturd says:

    In other news, this stock market is pissing me off as we approach a buy point with the portfolio putting me at 50/50. I may wait until tomorrow for the FED hijinks to wear off. Now that we are in recession, the question becomes, how deep? Still strange that there’s so much hiring.

    Can’t be greedy.

  79. Grim says:

    “I’m technically a recession but choose to identify as prosperity” describes half the regulars on Instagram and TikTok.

  80. Libturd says:

    Though, looking at the charts, this too feels like a repeat of March. Ho hum.

    What do the tea leaves tell you Chi and others.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think this is a nasty bear market rally hitting the FOMO stage. Wiping out shorts and then will wipe out longs on the way back down. Who knows for sure, but that’s what it seems like to me.

    Libturd says:
    July 28, 2022 at 1:46 pm
    In other news, this stock market is pissing me off as we approach a buy point with the portfolio putting me at 50/50. I may wait until tomorrow for the FED hijinks to wear off. Now that we are in recession, the question becomes, how deep? Still strange that there’s so much hiring.

    Can’t be greedy.

  82. leftwing says:

    DRI nice support line at 110…not scared of the labor/food inflation and the opinion even prevalent on this board of ‘NFW am I paying $50 for fast casual steaks’? Nice forward multiple if estimates hold…ER around 9/22…put it on my watchlist.

    Short here for you…trolling the bargain bin of recent earnings decliners, looking for longs. Stumbled on SWK…OK, income statement is what it is, they cut forecasts nearly in half for 2022 (10->5.50), looks like a kitchen sink type quarter to get it behind them, current multiple at new ’22 forecast is 18x (not cheap but not horrible) and I’m looking at backstopping maybe somewhere around 85 which is a not bad 15x and then I pop the Q and JFC that debt…Much of it long dated($5B) but another $5B current, plus while inventories were exploding ($1.9B CF drain) and CF drying up management is out there doing acquisitions….serious question on maintaining any covenants they may have on any debt over the next 12 months plus big management misjudgement…it’s down hard today but seems to have some support, she takes a little rally up like in other down quarters and i may pop a short on there….

  83. leftwing says:

    ICON interesting, space I know…wonder if they had a different corporate name a while back? Will check it out as a short. Had CRL (same business, solid company) on my watchlist as a long for 220, missed that on that extended trip a couple weeks ago as well…fucking expensive trip…I’ll do some research, maybe a pairs trade, short ICON, Long CRL

  84. leftwing says:

    “I may wait until tomorrow for the FED hijinks to wear off.”

    For sure. Big earnings AMC today…AAPL and AMZN…expectations are tempered for both but you get a two-fer of weaker than expected and we slide 2%+ tomorrow easily…

  85. boomer remover says:

    I was at my local TJ’s today and the guy who was ringing me up talked highly of Ghost Hawk in Clifton and bore a strange resemblance to grim. The whole thing was even more strange after I found out that they’re next door to Silk City.

    I got a wedding in Poland to attend to, but when I get back, am def stopping in.

  86. leftwing says:

    Also, and last post for a while since I need to get back to the coal mines, but middle of the country is unusually weak…

    There always has been two Americas, even before the USA was the USA, most generally rural vs. urban manifested in changing ways over a couple centuries…First hand observation over these prior months if you are not in the top 20% (urban, or islands of prosperity in flyover country) you are hurting. A lot.

    Can expand, but I don’t think the full impact of this phenomenon is being accounted for at all accurately. In economies, markets, or even politics.

    Keep an eye out for weak floorboards that give out….

  87. No One says:

    Regarding the “still so much hiring” something to keep in perspective:
    In 2020 the number of people employed fell from 152.5m to 132.2m in a couple of months. It was the biggest employment drop in modern history, and employment has continued to rebound ever since, but only to 151.9m. So we are still below February 2020 levels.
    Peak to trough employment losses in the Financial crisis was only 10m of job losses spread over a couple of years. COVID crushed 20m jobs in a couple of months.

    Another issue is that I think inflation may have created an illusion for businesses making their toplines grow at least. And until very recently borrowing rates were quite low. My hunch is that employment numbers could have peaked. But could still keep growing if they keep up the stimulus. Covid shutdown then recovery may be leading to some timing dynamics we haven’t ever seen before economically.

  88. Libturd says:

    Thanks all.

    It’s an extremely difficult market to evaluate. Just so many dislocations. But there is definitely money to be made if you read them correctly (or just accidentally get it right).

    SWK is tricky. This is 2nd quarter in a row that management blew it. They are planning to sell their pipeline business, so that will help pay for the debt coming due. None the less, fewer and fewer consumers know how to use tools, tempering the demand for names like Stanley or Craftsman. Mechanics will continue to buy from Snap on and the like. Me thinks it’s probably a good short if it goes up too much. Still 2.5% dividend might sucker some people in. Interesting find.

  89. Grim says:

    Retail job sounds delightful

  90. leftwing says:

    Got nuthin’…out of boredom and frustration at pissing away a few hours this afternoon with nothing to show went to the old standby…short a CW shit-co….ROKU reports tonight, took a low cost, high payout short position.

    Don’t follow because of me, this is a lark. If there were a decent casino nearby I would have gone there instead, at least I would get free drinks and tits in my face as I pull money out of my pocket.

    Interested to see AAPL on handsets, and AMZN on consumer spend, especially median consumer, both for nearer term market read throughs…

  91. AmericanBusiness AreGetting WhatTheyDeserve says:

    No one,

    You are making it complicated. Over 1 million died of c19 in this country. If 40% were not in the workforce and 60% were in the workforce. There is your missing 600,000 of your post.

    Also add to that there are a lot of minimum wage holders that were working multiple jobs pre pandemic. (20 hours McD, 20 hours WM, 20 hours Wendy ) and keep in mind many of these lousy jobs actually now have no compete clauses in their employment forms to prevent the person from doing this.)

    Post pandemic not anymore. One of Walmart’s complaints were that they had to increase pay and their average hourly employee were working a lot of overtime. This is from a company that prides itself on keeping people at less than 28hrs a week and treating them like toilet paper.

  92. leftwing says:


    ROKU 85 -> 67…..down 18 bucks, 20+%

    Cathie you go girl…gonna take my ‘winnings’ and head to the local four star for some top shelf bourbon or scotch and see if I can find those tits..

    Can’t make this shit up.

  93. Fastest Eddie says:

    $739,000,000,000 for a health care and climate change slush fund dubbed, “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” LOL. Why don’t they just throw in the “Hate Trump, pro-choice, equity and equality, non-binary, blue states rule” symbols and cover all your bases? I mean, if you’re going to do a campaign ad and dupe the slow-witted muppets, you might as well go all in. I still don’t know how China and India will comply since they contain about a third of the world’s population and China and India are at around 40% of the world’s CO2 emissions. The U.S. is around 15%. So, we know this is yet another tax and spend spree to buy votes. And didn’t Obammy care take care of health care costs? Close to a trillion dollar SPENDING package to fight inflation. LMAO. Okay.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s insane is amazon up almost 12% after hours and bulls acting like recession is over when it’s only beginning. They must think a Fed pivot is already here.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Guess it’s a bull market already! Spend it!

    Wild times. That’s all I know. Absolute insanity.

  96. Fast Eddie says:

    Oh, by the way, the percentage of the United State’s CO2 contribution of the world’s emissions today compared to 1990 is an increase of 0.4%. Huge strides in technology due to incentive and productive minds. China’s increase in it’s contribution of CO2 pollution from 1990 to today is 354%. India is at 305%. When will the climate warriors go to China and protest?

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    U.S. Economy Still Shrinking
    The White House inspires another Carter-era comparison.
    Whatever noun one chooses as a label for the American economy, the fact is that it’s getting smaller. The Journal’s Harriet Torry reports:

    The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row—a common definition of recession—as businesses trimmed their inventories, the housing market buckled under rising interest rates, and high inflation took steam out of consumer spending.

    Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, fell at an inflation and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That followed a 1.6% pace of contraction in the first three months of 2022.

    The report indicated the economy met a commonly used definition of recession—two straight quarters of declining economic output.

    The official arbiter of recessions in the U.S. is the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines one as a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy for more than a few months. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee considers factors including employment, output, retail sales and household income—and it usually doesn’t make a recession determination until long after the fact.

    Let’s hope that job openings remain plentiful, though this column recognizes that such hope will have a tough time triumphing over experience. Don Rissmiller and Brandon Fontaine at Strategas write in a note to clients:

    While recessions require broad-based weakness in data (especially in employment numbers), two consecutive negative quarters of GDP outside of a recession are rare (the last time was 1947).

    Americans may now seek to party like it’s 1947, but our shrinking economy desperately needs pro-growth policies and Washington seems determined to continue implementing the opposite. It’s also discouraging that the White House is spending so much time marketing favorable descriptions of the economy rather than trying to improve it.

    Anticipating that this morning’s GDP report would be another downer, amid continuing White House assertions that America is not in a recession, Charles Lane wrote in the Washington Post:

    How about we compromise and call the next economic downturn, whenever it comes, a “banana,” in honor of Alfred E. “Fred” Kahn?
    In 1978, Kahn — a Cornell University economist in charge of President Jimmy Carter’s inflation-fighting efforts — said that failure to get soaring prices under control could lead to a “deep, deep depression.” Carter’s aides, perturbed at the possible political fallout, instructed him never to say that word, or “recession,” again.
    We don’t know whether this instruction stirred the wrath of Kahn, a verbal stickler notoriously disdainful of cant and euphemism; in a previous government job, he had sent around a memo telling staff not to use words such as “herein.”

    It did trigger his wit, though: In his next meeting with reporters, Kahn puckishly said the nation was in “danger of having the worst banana in 45 years.”

  98. Phoenix says:


    We did send the manufacturing there. Had we kept it here I’m sure the numbers would have been closer.

  99. joyce says:

    ~3/4 of the individuals that died were over 65 years old. How many of them were employed?

    AmericanBusiness AreGetting WhatTheyDeserve says:
    July 28, 2022 at 3:52 pm
    No one,

    You are making it complicated. Over 1 million died of c19 in this country. If 40% were not in the workforce and 60% were in the workforce. There is your missing 600,000 of your post.

  100. No One says:

    Greens don’t complain about China because they are watermelons, green on the outside, red on the inside. And they fall for China’s propaganda about their green efforts, because that’s what such people do.

    Some of the hardcore greens want to depopulate the world, but then they mostly preach it to wealthy white people in the US and Europe who aren’t the growing population groups anyway.

    China is really the world’s big polluter. India would be big but they are too poor and economically incompetent as a country to produce much energy yet. Thanks in part to government energy planners who consistently fail to produce energy up to their own goals, partly due to price controls and usual government incompetence and corruption.

  101. AmericanBusiness AreGetting WhatTheyDeserve says:


    What is the average age of a WM greeter and many cashiers in McJobs, teenagers they are not and many wear diapers, but I’m sure they are not babies.

    Fat Eddie;

    Keeping the increased healthcare subsidy is worth it. I’ll break it down for you.

    Red states did not expand Medicaid. The way that ACA was written is that you get maximum subsidy starting at 100% of Federal Poverty Rate for your zip code, but if you are below 100% you get a big ZERO, because ACA expected all states to expand Medicaid like NJ and NY and you will qualify for Medicaid.

    So if you are in a red state and want to game the system to get maximum subsidy and not fall into the GOP screw you hole, you make sure that you put 101% of the poverty rate for the zip code. Come tax time if you made less then that, you report self employment income to get you to that 101% magic number. You wont pay income tax, but you will pay self employment share of Social Security and Medicare @14% of that amount you reported as self employment. What ever refund you were going to get from your W-2 income would be reduce by this self employment tax, but you get to keep health insurance.

    A Rubick’s Cube system so that big insurance can make money and red state can be asses.

  102. Juice Box says:

    Some weirdos here with a camper selling Tump flags and all kinds of maga stuff in whole
    Foods parking lot lol. I gather shoprite kicked them out already as they were there a while back.

    BTW the avocado apocalypse is finally over price is down to a buck again for large ones.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Since Jan 1 2020 to date, S&P500 up 26.8% and QQQ up 43%. This after a pandemic, inflationary spike, Russian invasion, etc. That’s a pretty decent return for all of the supposed hell in a hand basket talk.”

  104. joyce says:

    Almost half were over 75. I’m sure you remember all the LTCF stories. The majority, by far, were not employed.

    AmericanBusiness AreGetting WhatTheyDeserve says:
    July 28, 2022 at 6:00 pm

    What is the average age of a WM greeter and many cashiers in McJobs, teenagers they are not and many wear diapers, but I’m sure they are not babies.

  105. AmericanBusiness AreGetting WhatTheyDeserve says:


    No wonder you hate cops. You probably got a beating or three with some tazering just for shits and giggle.

    My point is a very large section of the poor working class tool a big hit. In the blue states the geezers in nursing homes got it. In red states it was the poor hourly workers. Remember the Chicken, Turkey, Hog and Cow slaughterhouse outbreaks.

    Rest assure when you add up the ones that died or are in long term disability it actually is over 600,000 which is the difference that No One was pointing out between 2/20 & present day.

    However the difference today is that the economy is running way hotter than 2/20 and therefore the shortage of employees. In my field it was the standard for people to have a full time plus one or two part time gigs. Now keep one full time job and work agency contracts. There is no decrease income issue because the average going pay rate has double between 2/20 and now and we are not in “crisis pay season” add another 50% if a medical facility wants to get someone then. In short we were underpaid. The pandemic brought our value up. Same thing has happened to a lot of people and they are not stressing it out.

  106. joyce says:

    No wonder you hate cops. You probably got a beating or three with some tazering just for shits and giggle.

    What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

    You said 60% of the 1MM individuals that died from COVID were in the workforce. The statistics do not back that up. Good day

  107. JCer says:

    On the lantern flies, there are tons of them around in NNJ, if you have tree of heaven you’ll see many bugs. They also seem to really like raspberry bushes, they killed all of mine. I find tons of dead ones because they like to eat milkweed and I have stopped killing it. I don’t know what it is with invasive species from asia but they are miserable I’m in a constant fight with tree of heaven, japanese knotweed, wisteria, and now lantern flies.

    On the green agenda people should see right through it, the WEF is planning a mass starvation event the likes of whihc we haven’t seen since Mao or Stalin. Why in the world would Canada and the Netherlands be attempting to restrict farmers when there is a projected food shortfall? There are no coincidences, this has all been set in motion to break the lower and middle classes in the west and create death and destruction in the third world. What is being pushed is so insane it cannot possibly be a coincidence or a blunder it’s intentional given the situation with the war climate initiative reducing food production should be halted not accelerated!

  108. BRT says:


    it’s no different than China’s “great leap forward”. Centralized planning from people that have no experience in Energy and Agriculture. When China did it, they starved 100 million people. These delusions of wind/solar economy and zero emission farming were all concocted by pipe dreams.

  109. OC1 says:

    “On the green agenda people should see right through it, the WEF is planning a mass starvation event the likes of whihc we haven’t seen since Mao or Stalin. ”

    The train has just pulled into Crazy Town.

  110. Mosquito says:

    Re: Starvation and Crazy Town.

    Don’t be so dismissive. This has been covered wildly in the press. IS it really a plan some
    Bureaucrat came up with? Open for debate, however there is a real
    And present danger besides global warming.

    If that grain does not leave Ukraine it will be very very bad. I think most of us have read about it, if is Putin is as mad as he seems it’s definitely in the realm of possibility.

  111. Libturd says:

    Just pulled in?

  112. JCer says:

    OC1, the cognitive dissonance is strong in you. Just like the last conversation regarding under reported crime…seriously in Dinkins NYC property crimes, quality of life crimes, and crime up to and including muggings were frequently NOT reported of course you go to murder which is not a high frequency crime anywhere. But go ahead read the Atlantic, Mother Joners and plug your ears and only hear NPR.

    Western Europe is facing a food shortage because of the Ukraine war, the loss of Russian gas and fertilizer. Why would the EU be creating constraints on European farmers? Wake up it’s not “crazy town”, you have crop failure, you have a war and shortage of commodities but let exacerbate this. Climate change is real issue but it not quite quite as immediate as millions starving in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Call me old fashion but given a choice between nitrogen emissions and starvation in Bangladesh, I’ll take the emissions every day as would any person with a shred of humanity.

  113. OC1 says:


    If your #1 concern is preventing starvation (a good concern), then you should want grain to be fed directly to people, rather than cows. Much more efficient.

    The grain a cow eats can feed a lot more people than the cow can.

  114. OC1 says:

    “seriously in Dinkins NYC property crimes, quality of life crimes, and crime up to and including muggings were frequently NOT reported”

    How many is “frequently”?

    The stats show the numbers of all crimes dropped during the Dinkins years.

    Did the number of unreported crimes increase over that time frame, so it just looked like crime dropped?

    Did the number of unreported crimes suddenly drop the day Guliani was elected, so the stats for the Guliani years are correct?

  115. joyce says:

    I agree with parts of what you’re saying. But listen to yourself, how do you prove unreported crime? Anecdotal stories? If the proof is anything more substantial it would seem to me the crime was reported.

    I believe there was and still is a lot of unreported crime from the government at all levels… but I can’t prove it.

  116. JCer says:

    OC1 where were you living during the Dinkins years? The livability of NYC increased dramatically in 1994 even compared to 1991-92 and even considering the nationwide trend of falling crime rates, the rate of fall in Guliani’s NYC far exceeded national trends. Policing works period. Literally in the 80’s lots of quality of life crimes went unreported, a good many people wouldn’t even bother reporting muggings as nothing would come of it. As Guliani and Bratton were arresting perps and prosecuting ALL crime people were certainly more likely to report crime under the Guliani regime. There was a precipitous drop in crime in NYC in 1994-96 where as nationwide crime was relatively flat where previously it was going down.

    Again cognitive dissonance, I was here, we lived I know what I saw. Just because you do not like someone’s politics does not mean that their policies vis a vis policing were very effective. You can have issues with a lot of aspects of Guliani’s policies but IT WORKED.

    OC, I’ll just call you chairman Mao everyone knows that’s not how it works. The heads of cattle will continue to be fed, the wealthy will eat steak and the middle class in the western world will eat hamburger. Furthermore if you were informed at all about farming you’d realize grain for cows is not the same as grains for people, there are differences in how it is grown, harvested, and the quality if it is intended as animal feed rather than for human consumption. That simply does not change on a dime. Policies should be put into effect to maximize production rather than hinder it, I’d rather have a surplus of commodities that could be used to prevent starvation than a shortage regardless of what markets decide is the optimal use for said commodities.

  117. JCer says:

    Yes Joyce it’s Anecdotal, but coming back twenty years after what happened to re-examine data to try to paint what happened in NYC as anything other than what the contemporary perception was at the time is disingenuous and politically motivated.

    Guliani certainly looks like a clown based on his behavior and antics over the last 5 or so years but during his time as mayor the policies enacted, especially related to policing were effective, the data shows that as does the lived experience and yes anecdotal stories do add to the impression. After the disastrous 80’s crime spike, crime had no place to go but down as NYC recorded record homicides in 1989. So yes crime started to go down under Dinkins but that accelerated under Guliani due to his policies(Targeted policing, enforcement of minor infractions, compstat, etc) reaching a 30 year low in 1996 after only 2 years.

    Looking at the data I’d say it shows efficacy of the policies compared to national crime trends but my point is when a place is lawless it will skew your statistics and data and there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to support that assertion. Why is there a need to “prove crime was underreported”, when NYers gave Guliani a Republican a second term something which last happened during LaGuardia’s time, it was confirmed the feelings of the people who lived the experience. They voted against their political beliefs because the change was so stark.

    The left’s shift to very ineffective policing and incarceration policy is responsible for spiking crime and people are looking back to NYC in the 1990’s so the politically motivated feel it necessary to revise what people experienced and publish a lot of claptrap based on manipulated data.

  118. Juice Box says:

    JCer going to town!!

    I was there lived it in Hells Kitchen.. Fun times stepping over a passed out individual usually a white boy too as I was on the way to work. It was gentrification that changed it all, don’t ask me about the time my crib burned down do to “lighting” so the Blockbuster and a high rise could be built..

  119. Phoenix says:


    A bunch of malarkey. All these cretins want is to enrich themselves.

    “Forum’s work in promoting true global citizenship.”

    The World Economic Forum is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.
    The Forum strives to model world-class corporate governance, where values are as important as rules. Legitimacy, accountability, transparency and concerted action are the guiding principles of the Forum.

  120. joyce says:

    This is a another false narrative like the Clinton surplus that just won’t die. What is it with some people reflexively claiming others’ comments must be politically motivated? In my opinion when one is frequently assuming something about others’ comments it may speak more of the reader than the writer.

    I think leftwing has done a pretty good job explaining why we shouldn’t assume significant changes in very complex multi-variable events are attributable to politicians’ terms in office… especially when trends started multiple years beforehand. The drop in crime accelerated during his term? Yes it did and as you said it accelerated nationally in major cities. The drop accelerated more so in San Francisco. Did they implement the same policies?

    What is the problem attributing the drop in crime to multiple causes?

  121. JCer says:

    Juice gentrification certainly helps but often gentrification is driven by the thought that an area is “no longer unsafe”.

    Phoenix of course the WEF is not motivated by the “environment”, they are pushing these policies as a means to get control of the land by bankrupting farmers by totally changing the economic dynamics of farming. The old n@zi who runs it isn’t as privileged rich person through anything he actually produced. It is disturbing how much influence they have in governments around the world. When it comes to the people screaming about global warming, why do they all have carbon footprints the 100 times the size of normal people? Look at what they do not what they say, huge houses, fleets of cars, private jets, even yachts meanwhile they don’t want you to have a Corolla to drive in.

  122. JCer says:

    Joyce no, statistics show a 70% drop in violent crime in NYC by 1996 nationally crime was dropping but by less than 30% not 70%, NYC in the 1980’s had the worlds most dangerous public transit system. Make no mistake DeBlasio started the move away from the policies pursued by Guliani and later Bloomberg, we are seeing the results today.

    As for the Clinton surplus, give credit where credit is due. Clinton reformed his policies in his second term, sure a rising tide helps but sound tax policy makes a difference. GHWB raised taxes Clinton left them in place and didn’t pass any crazy spending, reduced capital gains taxes and reaped the benefit from those policies. GWB reduced taxes across the board setting the stage for todays massive deficits and debts. Obama basically doubled down by only repealing the cuts from high earners and continuing the booking spending. The tax base is not broad enough in the US if you are going to restrict yourself to taxing only household earning 300k or more.

    If it’s not politically motivated why are we discussing the crime record of mayors in NYC 30 or more years ago? The democrat platform on policing is the single most racist and unjust platform ever as the biggest victims are the working poor and minorities. Have you lived in the hood? Do you know anyone who lost family members due to random violence? That is the reality that politicians refuse to confront, the gangs need to be stopped, unless we are willing to give police the tools to stop it, it continues unabated.

  123. BRT says:

    There’s definitely multiple causes. What remains true is, just about every action DeBlasio took made things worse.

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol…jimmy the jinx. You all know what happens next.

    “CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday advised investors to seize the moment and buy some stocks, since the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

    “When the Fed gets out of the way, you have a real window and you’ve got to jump through it,” the “Mad Money” host said.”

  125. OC1 says:


    I have no idea whether the Netherlands new agriculture policies are good or bad.

    But I am 100% their intent is not to starve millions of people!

    And re crime in NYC- I didn’t get my info from the Atlantic or Mother Jones, I got it here:

    You think those stats are wrong (except when they aren’t)- fine.

    But don’t get pissed at me because I don’t acccept the subjective experiences of one guy who happened to live in NYC for a few years as gospel on the matter.

  126. joyce says:

    Didn’t say that

    JCer says:
    July 28, 2022 at 10:33 pm
    Joyce no, statistics show a 70% drop in violent crime in NYC by 1996 nationally crime was dropping but by less than 30% not 70%

  127. joyce says:

    And I didn’t criticize Clinton. I said there was no surplus

  128. joyce says:

    If it’s not politically motivated why are we discussing the crime record of mayors in NYC 30 or more years ago?

    You brought it up. I chimed in to say it’s weak that it seemed like the major tenet in your argument was unreported events. It’s impossible to prove a negative. And I thought OC1’s questions about when the under reporting started and stopped were good.

  129. OC1 says:

    “OC1 where were you living during the Dinkins years?”

    Not in NYC, but my old man was NYPD in Harlem for many years -the 30th precinct. (The 30 went on to later fame as the “dirty 30”, because of all the corruption).

    For many years in the 80’s, the 30 lead the city in homicides, as well as other crimes.

    Dad retired near the end of Dinkins (92/93), and he told me that by the time he left the 30 had gone from an “A” precinct to a “B” precinct. (that’s cop speak for “a lot less crime”).

    Take that as you will.

  130. OC1 says:

    And Joyce, you wold love some of my dad’s cop stories.

    The links to cop misconduct that you post are nothing compared to what used to go down.

  131. JCer says:

    Joyce I don’t love Clinton and think he certainly made mistakes but Clinton definitely had a projected surplus, GWB messed it up with ill advised tax cuts. You implied there was a false narrative, the data shows nearly 1000 fewer homicides 2 years into Giuliani’s first term, Dinkins last term had higher murder rates than even during the height of the crack epidemic.

    OC1 read the data look at the trends compare it to national crime trends crime drops were plateauing nationwide as the recession was setting in 93. Dinkins record on crime stinks his policies were not working, Guliani changed those policies and crime fell more than the national average, the data is easy to see and murder is a great bellwether as there is no real way to manipulate those statistics. Furthermore lived experience tells a story beyond what statistics alone can show the policies enacted by Guliani resulted in a much more livable NYC. My comments on this are because recently only recently have leftist publications tried to reframe what happened in NYC as a “false narrative” because the liberal policies enacted in NYC and other cities are failing miserably.

    As for nitrogen caps, it’s not just a Netherlands policy this is being pushed worldwide including Canada. The issue is arbitrary caps are not the solution and environment protection goes beyond output and is significantly impacted by farming practices. The issue is the 50% reduction target will cause 1/3rd of farms to no longer be economically viable. It will have a bigger impact on livestock than produce but it impacts both in a big way as the dutch already use integrated farming practices to recycle animal waste and plant waste. The problem is that intensive livestock farming once banned in the EU will move to other countries and they will find themselves not just dependent on Russia for oil and gas but then also for meat. Just look at Sri Lanka setting arbitrary caps around emissions from food production is a dangerous game to play.

    There is a concerted effort with pressure being applied to make this happen and it’s been going on for years but why are multiple countries setting arbitrary caps now during a war that is disrupting food production and multiple droughts that have lowered yields? It’s not the discussion nor trying to reduce emissions and improve agricultural practices to improve the environment but the timing of all this is VERY suspicious.

  132. OC1 says:


    “but the timing of all this is VERY suspicious.”

    This…is where you lose me.

    But when did you say you lived in the city? JCer, is this guy you?

Comments are closed.