Jobs Day!

From CNBC:

Stock futures are flat with all eyes on the July jobs report

Stock futures were little changed Friday as investors waited for the July jobs report, looking for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s path of rate hikes and the state of the economy.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 25 points or 0.08%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell slightly.

Economists expect 258,000 jobs were added in July, down from 372,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 3.6%. The jobs report will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

“Investors will be waiting to see if the labor market can withstand the Fed’s rate-hike campaign as well as it did in June,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade.

Job growth is expected to slow as the Fed continues to hike interest rates to tame surging inflation, but it’s unclear whether that slowing will tip the economy into an official recession. Many said Friday’s report is crucial as it’s one of two the central bank will see before it decides how much to raise rates at its September meeting.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment. Bookmark the permalink.

74 Responses to Jobs Day!

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. dentsDunnigan says:

    Take my dog for a walk

  3. grim says:

    DoorDash was really interesting yesterday.

    I think the inflation pivot people didn’t consider is that it isn’t

    Dining Out -> Cooking at Home


    Dining Out -> Ordering Out -> Cooking at Home

    They are also killing it from a market share perspective.

  4. Very Stable Genius says:

    “Republican candidates, facing a stark reality check from Kansas voters, are softening their once-uncompromising stands against abortion as they move toward the general election, recognizing that strict bans are unpopular and that the issue may be a major driver in the fall campaigns.”

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just like my generation mostly can’t pick up a wrench and fix things themselves compared to previous generations…new generations now can’t cook for themselves.

  6. 3b says:

    528k thousand jobs added , unemployment 3.5, May numbers revised up.

  7. Libturd says:

    Economy is not slowing. It’s pant up demand. Even if people are putting it on their credit cards or raiding their savings. They DESERVE that trip to Europe or vacation at the shore. Good luck with that inflation Powell. This Fall is going to be rough.

  8. 3b says:

    Lib: I said a month ago this talk of a Fed pivot was nonsense, and it is. 100bp hike in September is a given now.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:


    That’s what’s scary…economy running on borrowed time. What happens when they have to pay this back. I refuse to buy back into the stock market…just doesn’t seem right yet.

  10. No One says:

    I note that home meal kits don’t even make the equation. So many alternatives.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow. All I can say is that teaching is in big big trouble. No way teaching gets high raises aka no way sane people will sign up for an extremely underpaid profession. Why would you? You can make so much more in corporate world right now…by like a mile.

    “Good morning from #Germany, where the risk of a wage-price spiral is rising. Lufthansa seals a very expensive ground crew wage deal to avert further walkouts. Check-in staff will get between 13.6% and 18.4% more pay.”

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Esp in low paying states that top out at 50-60k…huge teacher shortage is upon us. Inflation was the nail in the coffin.

  13. Libturd says:

    The rat problem, and I never saw one yet in Montclair, but have heard people talking about it, is due to two things. The increase in outside dining and the hot dry weather which sends them scurrying to find moister shelter.

    There are rats everywhere. There was a huge infestation at a local temple’s parking lot. Guess where all of the bar/bat mitzvahs have been taking place? In their parking lot in tents.

    The rats have always been there. You just see them now because the bait is sitting out.

  14. Phoenix says:

    “Greeks are asking what they should be sacrificing for Ukraine after years of suffering under austerity that cut pensions and slashed government spending. And they question how much they should help energy challenges in Germany, which they blame for a decade of economic depression and suffering.”

    It’s all destabilizing.

    Fun times ahead.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Hefty job numbers relate to more demand and sustained higher inflation. I think the FED is going to raise steadily until we can feel the brakes slowing down the vehicle. I’m not sure when this will occur. I do hope I start seeing at least a 4% rate on a 12 or 18 month CD.

  16. Phoenix says:

    “The divisions in Europe are getting massive,” said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, who has been following the energy crisis. “The political problems because of the energy crisis are massive.”

    Countries around the continent are making one painful cut after another. Spain this week became the latest, going further than Greece in restricting air conditioning by imposing an 81-degree cooling limit on movie theaters, shopping centers, airports and train stations in addition to public buildings. In winter, the spaces can be heated to only 66 degrees.

  17. Libturd says:

    The stock market is in a tug of war that is going to end badly. It’s a very ugly cycle that helps explain how quickly inflation can get out control (and then you have to add 3 zeros to your currency).

    You see, without unemployment, businesses must pay people more to fill vacancies and to keep current employees. Then, the business must raise prices on their goods and services to cover these costs. Add in the pant-up demand and people are willing to overpay when they would typically be cutting back. But it’s gonna be worse.

    The FED is going to overdo it (which they always do), right when the consumer is going to be putting on the breaks when they feel less rich due to the impending housing crash. And the state governments are spending like drunken sailors and will end up in large deficits. This will be followed by the market crash, which will trigger state’s unfunded liabilities to expand into IOUs.

    Grab your popcorn. It’s all probably coming this Fall to a market near you.

  18. Phoenix says:


    Freedom isn’t free. Joey said so.

    Better hope that sound is all of the popcorn and not the handguns.

  19. Libturd says:

    I worry about the handguns. I’ve been saying for years, the best product for Americans to invest in is barbed wire.

  20. 3b says:

    Fast: 100bp hike in September, and another one after that. Fed is why behind the curve. You might even see an inter meeting hike, between now and September. Todays job numbers in my view could force the Fed.

  21. Phoenix says:

    Don’t worry. The democrats have succeeded in this:

    Sinema said she agreed to ‘move forward’ with ‘Inflation Reduction Act’

    It’s foolproof.


  22. Libturd says:

    Yet the market keeps rising. I guess people see the inflation and are willing to take undue risks to try to keep up. This is really setting up to be ugly IMO.

  23. Libturd says:

    The Inflation reduction act is tiny. We will probably have spent more on the Ukraine then this bill will cost, by the time it passes. Though I agree, the climate change silliness in it is nothing but pork.

  24. Nomad says:

    3b says:
    August 5, 2022 at 9:10 am

    Wonder if JPow et all now worried about inflation self fueling / building up steam. They want soft landing but is the risk of spiraling increasing to the point where they need to bite bullet to kill the beast and get even more aggressive like a couple of 125 BP this fall.

  25. Phoenix says:

    “Wonder if JPow et all now worried about inflation self fueling / building up steam.”

    People like that don’t “worry.”

    They simply don’t care.

  26. 3b says:

    Nomad: I agree, and I would not be surprised if they hit hard. This morning s numbers prove in my mind, their work to date has not been enough. The consensus was 258k jobs, the actual number over 560k; this after tightening since March. No one wants a painful recession, but soft landing? I don’t see it.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    Grab your popcorn. It’s all probably coming this Fall to a market near you.

    Ab0rtion is the #1 issue in the November midterm elections. We’re told daily by the group that believes love is love and science is real. Forget runaway inflation and increased spending. I mean, who cares if a box of Cheerios is $11.50! As long we have the freedom to snuff out a baby, that’s what really matters! But, if you happen to escape the vacuum and actually be able to take a breath in this world, then no human is illegal because kindness is everything!

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    The Inflation reduction act…

    lmao!! That ranks with build back better. The dems are so good at creating muppet slogans.

  29. Libturd says:

    Until your daughter has an ectopic pregnancy and you have to watch her die.

    The Populist Republicans had it in the bag until they went all Taliban on us. I told you all nothing gets the vote out like restricting women’s rights or having that moron Trump on the ballot.

    You blew it!

  30. Libturd says:

    The ten year finally made a move.

    Smartest place to put your money in the short-term is going to be treasury bonds. I think they are going to have to yield a lot more to keep people buying them in the not-so-distant future.

  31. Phoenix says:

    “Ab0rtion is the #1 issue in the November midterm elections.”

    If it is, it’s because the Repukes stir fecal matter for blanks and giggles.

    Bunch of old goats dryer than the Sahara making rules for the youth.

    It’s just done to create more divisions. But keep splitting particles and eventually you might get a reaction that you can no longer contain.

  32. Phoenix says:

    Can’t share details, but I can tell you that I had a patient that for a few hundred dollars worth of medical care they would have been good to go.

    But no insurance, so no one saw them.

    That will now translate into hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars through Medicaid.

    Penny wise, pound foolish.

  33. Chicago says:

    Today’s number is a solid punch, but the CPI will really make a case if it persists as hot. Jobs is a lagging indicator. We also get Jackson Hole.

    I would toss August returns into the superfluous basket. Make your money if you can, but the real answers come when everyone returns from the beach.

    The action in stocks shows the level of enthusiasm out there. These bulls must be crushed for us to meaningfully move higher.

    3b says:
    August 5, 2022 at 10:50 am
    Fast: 100bp hike in September, and another one after that. Fed is why behind the curve. You might even see an inter meeting hike, between now and September. Todays job numbers in my view could force the Fed.

  34. Phoenix says:

    “Customers are stealing shopping baskets instead of buying bags, N.J. supermarkets say”


    Don’t inconvenience Mama. She don’t like it.

  35. leftwing says:

    “…100bp hike in September, and another one after that. Fed is why behind the curve. You might even see an inter meeting hike…they need to bite bullet to kill the beast and get even more aggressive like a couple of 125 BP this fall.”

    Can I have some of the stuff you guys are tripping on?

    Couple reference points…re: soft landing, the odds on favorite bet is that there won’t be one because there rarely is…so taking that position is hardly revolutionary, kind of like betting on the Derby favorite. Nothing to see there.

    Other side of the spectrum, a 125bp raise or an intra-meeting raise after two 75s is like six standard deviations away from the norm. For any Fed. Especially THIS Fed.

    Guys, there is a lag between raises and their effects. The 150bps of the last six weeks have barely begun to start to work their way through the real economy. You think before even seeing the effects of these prior two hikes this dovish Fed is going to do a hawkish move rarely done by any Fed in the past? Make that market on Predictit, I’ll take the other side.

    Let’s talk employment.

    Nearly 20% of jobs (+96k) were in leisure and hospitality, a sector where workers literally evaporated and employers could not find bodies no matter the offer (like the Starbucks in bumfuck upstate NY on the thruway offering 17.50/hr plus tips).

    Ditto healthcare (+70), which is another chronically understaffed sector and one where employment levels took a step down since pandemic.

    How is the filling of these positions by employees who everyone stated for last 12-18 months “we don’t know where they went” bad? It is literally, finally, the thin edge of normalization of the economy from the effects of the horrific pandemic response.

    Last point, factually, we are beyond peak inflation. Nothing says it can’t rear its ugly head again but run through your commodities and make a scoresheet of those where inflation is accelerating and those where inflation is decelerating. The latter will outnumber the former. A lot.

    So in a decelerating inflation environment where the effects of the already extraordinary back to back 75bps moves have not yet been felt and, finally, bids/asks are meeting in those sectors where the greatest economic uncertainty resided THIS Fed is going to push all the chips in on one hand.

    Not happening.

  36. Very Stable Genius says:

    Brandon is right.

    We are not in a recession

  37. Juice Box says:

    re: Kill Tree of Heaven…

    Just spent some time weeding the yard and walkways etc, weeds seem to be the only thing growing. Pulled down some Porcelain Berry vines. They grow very quickly and strangle the trees etc. I cut them and pulled them out from the trees on July 1st before my party only a month ago and poured 12% pool bleach on them and they still grow back…..Going to have to go nuclear on them and pick axe down to get all the roots. I will do that in the fall.

    No Tree of Heaven but plenty of other stuff.

    Our Basil, Mint and Jalapenos are gowning like crazy, helps to water them every day….

  38. Juice Box says:

    Don’t get me started on shopping bags. I now have quite a collection. Shop Rite sells small white ones for 33 cents if you forget your bags but they are designed to fit almost nothing..The bigger bags are like $5 bucks..some markup they have…

  39. 3b says:

    Left: Fair points, but I remain skeptical. Time will tell.

  40. Nomad says:

    Abramowicz interviewing El-Erian earlier this am with discussion on wage, fuel and food inflation among others and the sticky.

  41. Very Stable Genius says:

    Hell of a week:

    -528k July jobs added
    -Unemployment at 3.5% (50-year low)
    -Zawahiri killed
    -CHIPS Act passes
    -PACT Act passes
    -Inflation Reduction Act deal
    -Gas hits 50+ day low (median US price below $4/gal)
    -Kansas protects abortion

    And he oversaw it all with COVID.

    Let’s go Brandon!

  42. Libturd says:

    But did he make peace with some progressive middle eastern country dying to improve trade with Israel?

  43. Ex says:

    Biden was essentially a firewall against a wanna-be dictator.
    Grateful that we dodged that bullet. Trump wanted to be a strongman like his idol Putin or his fat fren in North Korea. Trump tried and failed to overturn democracy.

  44. SmallGovConservative says:

    Interesting, but not surprising, to see the things that the Dem stooges consider accomplishments…
    – gas at 4$ a gallon
    – another tax-and-spend Dem boondoggle with a name that only a stooge could love

    Oh, and you missed a few other things in this week’s recap…
    – that little blockade thing that China’s been trying out against Taiwan
    – another ~50,000 illegal aliens entered via Joe’s open border
    – I haven’t checked, but how’s that war in Europe going?

  45. Bystander says:

    Hi all,

    Been off this site for almost two weeks as we drive up and down PRoC on family trip. First leg complete – time with fam in Valencia, beach trip to Ventura. Spent Sat night at the Greek Theatre listening to David Gray perform. Beautiful venue
    but only 3/4 full. We moved to better seats eailu
    He was outstanding,.played all White Ladder Bowie covers Life on Mars, Oh Pretty things. Even did Cure In between Days and Tainted love by Soft Cell. Drink prices were out of control. I had delicious Harmonia Mango wheat and wife had small margarita. Total was $53!?? Unreal.

    Sunday was Beck and Red Hot Chili Peppers at Sofi. Freaking 270/ticket for 400 level. Parking was 80 but found spot 15m walk for $15. Beck set was rushed 45m so he did medley of songs rather.than full versions. Sofi is amazing structure but 100 percent lousy for music. That video screen monstrosity completely distorts sound. He moved down to bar area on 200 level and stood for Peppers. They are amazing at their age. Energy off chart..wish they played more early stuff from Mothers Milk, Blood Sugar or even One Hot Minute (underated) but only Under Bridge and Give it away at end. Would have loved Soul to Squeeze but nada.

    We were hesitant to do Yosemite with smoke and fires but did it anyway. Right call. It was stunning and clear. We did Sugar Pine rail and 8 yo beyond excited. Getting into Yosemite was dream. Not a lick of traffic and easily parked near Yosemite falls. Dipped in Merced to cool off. Heaven. We ended up staying in Shaver Lake which was further out but completely stunning. Clean, chill and great swimming. Loved it

    On economy front, Cali is off charts with prices. Gas was close $7 gallon in mountain areas…absurd. My bro in law struggling as Bank of Crapmerica paying nothing,.no bonus. He is working second job via rich buddy involved in some risky high interest bridge loans. No idea where this ends but it is false to.assume white collar jobs are paying more and easy to find. He has.MBA from Pepperdine and tough to get something better. Their rent is absurd.

    The dichotomy between rich and struggling class in so stark. Vacation homes and ranches for boomer crowd ..gaudy shit. Younger gen getting eaten alive out here. Oh well, off to Zion next week. Catch all later

  46. Libturd says:

    At Zion do Angels Landing no matter what!

  47. Libturd says:

    Also, as you drive through Hurricane to get to the park, question how a little town in Utah got THAT name?

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know…I’m an optimist, but i don’t see how this economy doesn’t have coming pain. Doesn’t seem like anything got cleaned up…almost zero pain.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is the Fed that good? I don’t know.

  50. HeknowsIt says:

    Very Stable Genius,

    You missed one.

    The one description from the “one” person about orange treason boy.

  51. Bystander says:

    Nope Lib. I don’t know a thing on area. Angels Landing might be tough with kids and aching knee.

  52. NYC Director says:

    “another ~50,000 illegal aliens entered via Joe’s open border”

    Not exactly an ideal process but you have to see the benefits of that too. Some may argue that undocumented population increase is actually economically net positive in both short and long run.

  53. Libturd says:

    Hike up to where the chains begin. You’ll all be okay to do that if you take it slow. It’s not terribly steep.

  54. Libturd says:

    They’re all rapists NYC. Rapists. And we don’t got abortion no more, so….

  55. Juice Box says:

    Nice looking hike.. 14 people have died as a result of falls from Angel’s Landing.

    Some nice camera work here.

  56. PumpkinFace says:

    You said they were all knowing and could manage the economy like clockwork. You said it’s different this time.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 5, 2022 at 2:35 pm
    Is the Fed that good? I don’t know

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s exactly what I am questioning. They might defy the odds and bring her in for a soft landing.

    I’ll tell you what, if they pull this off, it’s time to seriously question whether we will ever see a big bust again in our lifetime. If they survived this many times since 1999…it’s for a reason, it’s not luck. Esp 2008. They some how avoided a living hell and instead wemt on a 12 year bull run.

  58. BRT says:

    They all took the baskets on day 1. But the reality is, the NJ supermarkets lobbied for the bag van including paper. They get whatever they have coming to them.

  59. Ex says:

    2:05 welcome to California
    Nice assessment. It’s insane really. All that and the pizza
    Is Mediocre!!
    A wonderful place though if you have cash flow.
    Saw KC & The Sunshine Band last night in Ventura.
    70 year-old KC was terrific!!

  60. Juice Box says:

    My son is having a meltdown because I won’t put $20 on his debit card for more Roblox. FU Microsoft I am blocking it on my router now. These games are demonic, like China we should put on restrictions. I may actually have to lawyer up to get back money that was pilfered via gift card on my credit card too for Roblox. I can imaging what people that don’t have the ability and means to block this stuff will do. Probably lots of old fashioned spanking going on.

  61. BRT says:

    Last night in the keys before I head back to Ft Lauderdale. Miami has huge cranes everywhere.

  62. PumpkinFace says:

    Who knew there was no bust in 2007/08… I must have been dreaming

  63. Ex says:

    This one sums up California for me. Listen carefully.

    The voice :

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You call that a bust? You def were dreaming. They saved that economy. It should have went bust, but it didn’t.

    And if you disagree, that is fine, people have different opinions all the time.

    PumpkinFace says:
    August 5, 2022 at 6:25 pm
    Who knew there was no bust in 2007/08… I must have been dreaming

  65. Bystander says:


    The nice part of having family here is no hotel bills but that is quickly eroded by eating out and covering those bills. Crummy pizza is $80 for eight people when they want bread sticks and big salad etc . My in laws do not cook. I also chip in for groceries but they drink bottled water, cold brews, Gatorade and that adds up to. Their bottled water bill must be enormous. 6 twelve already gone this week. They struggle financially bc spend like crazy on crap and entertainment
    13 yo goes to Magic mtn and go cart/arcade with friends every week. This state is expensive for extraneous stuff…we went to go cart today and spent $80 in two hours

  66. PumpkinFace says:

    What the fuck is your definition of a bust? The sun dies and takes the universe with it?

  67. Juice Box says:

    re: “your definition of a bust”

    Double DD.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know if you are blind, but the Fed saved the economy in 2008. We went nowhere near the real pain that could have happened had not the Fed saved the day.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Coming War Over Taiwan
    With its global power at a peak and domestic problems mounting, China is likelier than ever before to make good on its threats.

    The U.S. is running out of time to prevent a cataclysmic war in the Western Pacific. While the world has been focused on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and weakness: Faced with profound economic, demographic and strategic problems, it will be tempted to use its burgeoning military power to transform the existing order while it still has the opportunity.

    This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison.

  70. PumpinFace says:

    I keep forgetting you can’t argue with stupid people.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Did the Fed save the day or not? If they indeed saved the day, doesn’t that mean there should have been a lot more pain? They call it a recession as opposed to a depression for a reason. I don’t call recessions busts…sorry. I call depressions a major bust. Was there pain, sure there was some for a short period. The stock market recovered quick, dude. So leave me alone, and stop trolling me.

    PumpinFace says:
    August 5, 2022 at 11:12 pm
    I keep forgetting you can’t argue with stupid people.

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