Moody Housing Markets

Posted on August 29, 2022 by grim

From Fortune:

183 housing markets could soon see home prices fall by 20%.

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

55 Responses to Moody Housing Markets

  1. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:02 am

    Wish they put a little more thought into the color code.

    “I’ve got an idea, in our map of most overvalued markets, let’s use orange and red to signify most accurately valued markets.”

  2. Hold my beer says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:10 am

    First non grim

  3. Hold my beer says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:33 am

    Found a fun way to troll libs and wokes this weekend. When they are complaining about something, I just agree and then say “biden’s America”. They get all cranked up

  4. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:07 am

    Government spending for ya $50 Billion spent and over 10 years waiting and the NASA moon program Artemis did not launch yet this morning. Construction began many years ago at Canaveral for the SLS rocket. I was able to see it up close three years ago being assembled, each rocket is costing for one SLS rocket launch a price tag of over $4 billion. There was discussion back in 2019 about simply scrapping it and using Falcon Heavy rockets from Space X which only cost $150 million. I think NASA fired that guy. When Elon finally gets the Starship up and running it will outlift all other rockets and be much much cheaper and more importantly much faster to deliver. Space X has launched the Falcon 175 times since the Artemis and SLS program was announced under Obama first term in 2010.

  5. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:14 am

    I’d considered flying down to Florida to see the launch with my daughter as a really fun pre-school trip.

    Wonder if it makes more sense to try to make it out to Boca Chica for the Starship test launches.

    Probably far less crowded, but far less accommodation for visitors. I can’t imagine how crazy Boca Chica would be for that takeoff. Though, it’s close enough in off season that Padre is right there too.

  6. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:15 am

    Housing it at an inflection point. Just starting to see month over month declines. A few more rate hikes and the greedy grubbers will be complaining that that won’t sell their crap shack for less and it will be feet first when they leave their homes.

    My cousin had his open house yesterday, sadly a divorce sale. He is looking for top $$ dollar and will need it as his ex-wife never worked during the marriage. He joked he will be moving in with me to afford his alimony. I did not ask if it was permanent.

  7. No One says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:17 am

    Have home price to income ratios been a good predictor of home prices in the past?
    Seems like there is regional variation about what the “normal” ratio is. I’d think that variation from historical norms of price to income might be a bit more accurate.
    And median buyer vs median income isn’t always the same median type of person. Do Case-Shiller affiliated people try to analyze this topic in a more nuanced way?

  8. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:19 am

    Have home price to income ratios been a good predictor of home prices in the past?

    I don’t believe so, though in retrospect you can go back in history and find what the best times to buy have been. Not that it’s necessarily actionable information in real time.

    One of the issues is that this metric tends to be looked at in aggregate, which is all wrong.

    Working under the assumption that income is always increasing (inflation, productivity at the macro level, career growth at the micro level), and that purchase prices are fixed based on the time of purchase. So, the metric might apply to new buyers (since you can look at both income and price at that point in time), but doesn’t necessarily apply to the vast majority of current homeowners. Thus, it’s more of an affordability metric on the buy side, than a metric that provides insight into overall market health. So, directionally, could provide some predictability towards buy side demand, and you could stretch that as impacting prices indirectly. Really though, no.

  9. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:24 am

    If they can fix the SLS on the Pad it might be a launch Friday around noon. Seems to be some kind of fuel feed problem in one engine perhaps a bubble as the hydrogen is supposed to stay liquid and may be under pressurized in the line forming a bubble, so who knows.

    BTW this is the First NASA designed and built rocket launch since 2011 which was the last flight of the space shuttle.

  10. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:26 am

    Was listening to the news and they mentioned two leaks, one of which they had thought they fixed previously.

  11. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:29 am

    South Padre Island is where people go to watch the Boca Chica launches. Plenty of places to stay etc. There are no tours of Space X facilities in Boca Chica unless you know Elon….

  12. NJCoast says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:33 am

    Housing prices still crazy here. Beautiful restoration because of historical ordinance. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/105-Cedar-Ave-Allenhurst-NJ-07711/39217821_zpid/

  13. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:36 am

    American contractors talking:

    Hey Joe, thin out that titanium sheet a bit.

    But NASA’s contract says it has to be 10mm so it doesn’t crack.

    Ahh, it’ll work fine. Those dummy’s won’t know the difference. Who cares. My kids like going to Disney every year and that will pay for at least five.

    But what if we get caught?

    It’s a white collar civil offense. We will pay a 50k fine and still profit by 2 million. Now thin it down like I told you, in fact, knock off another millimeter now that you brought it up.

  14. Ex says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:44 am

    7:33 Texas….”nuff said”

  15. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:44 am

    Hydrogen leaks go boom if the cryogenic loading operations are not successful. They will unload all the propellant and try and fix it on the pad.

    BTW Space X does not use Hydrogen, they use Methalox a methane/liquid oxygen rocket, it’s easier to store than liquid hydrogen due to its higher boiling point and density and based upon their success rate for missions so far Elon’s rockets are far superior.

  16. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:50 am

    re” Hey Joe, thin out that titanium sheet a bit. But NASA’s contract says it has to be 10mm so it doesn’t crack.” That should be caught. They have checklist after checklist in quality testing of all components.

    The issue might be simpler. Hydrogen caused cracking in metal, elemental hydrogen can be absorbed by metals in a process known as hydrogen embrittlement, as we should all know the hydrogen atoms are the smallest atoms and can literally dissolve right into all kinds of metals and weaken it.

  17. No One says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:53 am

    Best chance of getting a tour of the Space-X facility is to be a pretty young lady, and tell Elon you’re ready to do your part to help him reverse the “de-population crisis” he’s always worrying about. Or work for him. Do both simultaneously and you’re definitely in.

  18. Grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:56 am

    Wow – $20 mil

  19. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:58 am

    May need to tweet more to get my pass

  20. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:01 am

    Don’t really need to go there anyway, Boca Chica really is bare bones facilities and well you can sit by the pool at a nearby South Padre Island resort and watch the launch or go to the nearby park where they built a free viewing area. It is very very close.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BXGxKb-loo

  21. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:12 am

    re: $20 Million house in Allenhurst….

    LOL – It’s Nobody Beats The Wiz Founders summer home…. Stephen Jemal. They have been out of business for almost 20 years.

    105 Cedar Avenue, Allenhurst, NJ 07711 last sale 04/22/96 850,000

  22. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:15 am

    No One – Believe it or not the Nuralink employee Shivon Zilis was not anything hot n heavy it was a donation and done via IVF. Apparently so is Amber Heard’s kid.

  23. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:16 am

    Both mom’s may have used surrogates too…

    Science!!!

  24. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:29 am

    No One – Believe it or not the Nuralink employee Shivon Zilis was not anything hot n heavy it was a donation and done via IVF. Apparently so is Amber Heard’s kid.

    Maybe Elon’s personal rocket has a malfunction at the critical time and causes the mission to be scrubbed.

  25. BRT says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:34 am

    Juice,

    I have a coworker, female teacher, who was paying alimony for 5 years. She hired a private detective to show the ex-husband was shacked up with a GF to get it gone.

  26. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:39 am

    Elon’s second kid with Grimes was a surrogate too. He admitted recently on Twitter he is basically a boring nerd now who does not get any action and hasn’t in a long time. One of the world’s richest men chooses not to get some, or is exaggerating for social media sympathy.

  27. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:45 am

    One of the world’s richest men chooses not to get some, or is exaggerating for social media sympathy.

    Or by claiming this doesn’t have to worry about a false allegation-documenting to deny his junk doesn’t work.

  28. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:50 am

    Ouch Taxpayer. That’s gotta hurt.

    A panhandler who fell and broke his neck in Atlanta when a police officer shocked him with a stun gun during a foot chase in 2018 has been awarded $100 million by a federal jury.

    Jerry Blasingame, 69, who is paralyzed from the incident, now needs round-the-clock care costing $1 million a year, and has $14 million in medical bills so far, attorney Ven Johnson told jurors.

    It was determined by the jury that Officer Jon Grubbs used unreasonable force against Blasingame, who was 65 at the time and had been asking drivers for money on July 10, 2018.

  29. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 10:54 am

    Taxpayers gonna lose on this one as well- they shot an unarmed man.

    Chilling moment Florida cop shoots dead gunman – despite the fact that he handed over his firearm to a fellow deputy.

  30. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 11:29 am

    Grim – Booze deliveries, does this include your business or not? Wow $2000 permit to deliver booze. WTF..

    “The state Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) on Friday adopted a special rule to allow bars, restaurants, and liquor stores in New Jersey to use third-party delivery services and bring booze right to the doorstep beginning this fall.”

    “The rule creates the Third-Party Delivery Permit, which will allow liquor-serving establishments to contract with services like Door Dash, Instacart and Amazon Flex. Driver delivery services, which exploded during the pandemic, are now entering the highly regulated business of alcohol distribution.”

    “To qualify for a Third-Party Delivery Permit, an applicant must submit a formal agreement with a retail licensee and an agreement with the delivery worker. The delivery worker must undergo both a background check that includes criminal history and a driving record.

    The driver is also responsible for ensuring that the person receiving the alcohol is 21 years old — the driver is also supposed to refuse a customer who is underage or visibly intoxicated, according to the ABC. Establishments will not be allowed to deliver alcohol to college campuses, the ABC said.

    Permits will cost $2,000, the division said.

    The ABC, with its draconian liquor laws that date to the Prohibition Era, has been under enormous pressure within the industry to update its regulations. Old-time establishments with expensive liquor licenses have been pressuring the ABC to rein in the state’s fast-growing brew pub industry, which operate with much cheaper licenses and have become popular hangouts.”

    https://www.nj.com/news/2022/08/nj-to-allow-alcohol-deliveries-to-your-doorstep.html

  31. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 11:31 am

    Grim – Booze deliveries, does this include your business or not? Wow $2000 permit to deliver booze. WTF..

    Does not, it could have very easily included us, but the restaurant industry boxed us out.

  32. Phoenix says:
    August 29, 2022 at 11:43 am

    The driver is also responsible for ensuring that the person receiving the alcohol is 21 years old — the driver is also supposed to refuse a customer who is underage or visibly intoxicated

    That’s where the liability is going to rest. The driver.

    Sounds like fun.

  33. NJCoast says:
    August 29, 2022 at 11:58 am

    The Allenhurst house was in foreclosure for several years with several million $$$ in liens and in terrible disrepair. Relative Douglas Jamel paid off the liens and did the renovations.

  34. Libturd says:
    August 29, 2022 at 12:29 pm

    Well I’m sitting here in Allenhurst.

  35. leftwing says:
    August 29, 2022 at 12:37 pm

    chi, out of a little more than half of my SPY hedges….may dump more by EOD depending on this afternoon….

  36. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 12:55 pm

    What a mess, and this guy wants to run again? No ringing the register for Trump on this one it seems.

    Trump’s Truth Social App stopped paying their hosting company RightForge in March and the fact is they don’t have all that many users on their App so the SPAC merger with DWAC may be off.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/29/trump-spac-digital-world-stock-falls-as-shareholders-consider-merger-delay.html

  37. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 12:59 pm

    Lib – Looks like a nice beach day.

    Go stand in front of the beach cam north of the beach club and do a Fortnite dance, so we can get a look….

    http://www.abc1897.com/north-beach-camera/

  38. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 1:18 pm

    Douglas Jamel

    His daughter is married to one of the guys who founded Good Times Entertainment.

    Those guys ran a crazy video cassette business. They had a place in Bayonne that was literally filled with VHS recorders duplicating videos. Literally entire walls and racks of VHS recorders, thousands and thousands of them. They were a client in the late 90s, very early 2000s. Huge distributions. We helped them launch a direct to consumer business, mostly exercise stuff, but they did tens of thousands of orders a week.

    They sold some crazy shit, like non-IP protected Disney knock-offs, etc.

  40. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 1:46 pm

    Always got a laugh when perusing Blockbuster isles and seeing the knockoff movies along with the real Hollywood productions for rent.

    VHS had resolution of 240 x 320 and color reproduction was poor, and sound quality was awful…I think I still have one VHS tape of a vacation from long ago floating around somewhere along with a CD and DVD collection collecting dust for the last decade packed away in the attic. I don’t think I will ever even try and watch or listen to any of it again.

  41. Hold my beer says:
    August 29, 2022 at 1:56 pm

    Juice

    If any of those vhs tapes are still sealed you should look them up on eBay and get them grade. People are collecting them now like graded baseball cards. Some go for over 10k.

  42. Libturd says:
    August 29, 2022 at 2:12 pm

    It’s no wonder I had no clue what was happening when the cool kids were singer Under The Sea.

  43. grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    They did big business in bodegas, discount stores, low-end retailers that couldn’t get the time of day from the big distributors.

  44. NJCoast says:
    August 29, 2022 at 2:35 pm

    Libturd- On on my way down there now. Look for the cabanas that run perpendicular to the beach. I’ll have on an orange shirt.

  45. Libturd says:
    August 29, 2022 at 3:36 pm

    Wish I was really down there. I was trying to be funny by combining the first line of a very popular Billy Joel song, with Allenhurst. It would have been funnier if I came a bit closer I suppose. Covid fog. Yes, that’s what I blame it on.

  46. NJCoast says:
    August 29, 2022 at 3:45 pm

    Grim- Good Entertainment was the Cayre family. The 3 brothers own several properties around here. Kenneth Cayre’s oceanfront manse in Elberon has $300,000+ annual property tax bill.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 29, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    https://twitter.com/epbresearch/status/1564287361076297731?s=21&t=dpabodkQ1kLnznHJdd4UXg

    “Great thread. One point you missed though – WFH.
    The biggest gains were post-Covid, widespread due to WFH migrations.
    These migrations are done & will slowly reverse as new WFH jobs go abroad and some are pressured back to the office.
    Peripheral areas can’t sustain these prices.”

  48. Libturd says:
    August 29, 2022 at 6:52 pm

    Honest question for my fellow Covid survivors. After your symptoms ended, how long did you wear a kn95 or the like in your household once your 5 day quarantine ended? Did any of you manage to infect your other family members post quarantine? This Blows. Praying I don’t get the post PAX rebound.

  49. Grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:27 pm

    Only the initial 5 days with my mother in law on paxlovid.

  50. Grim says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:28 pm

    We were together in LBI and then she came over to watch the kids once we were back.

  51. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:33 pm

    Gov Murphy is at a fundraiser by my house, place is packed, and they are parking on the lawn too. Gotta love how his entourage of security all have to wear suits with ties and jackets. Even Biden does not make his detail dress like that in this weather.

  52. Hold my beer says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:35 pm

    Lib

    I stayed in a different room until I tested negative. I think that was 8 or 9 days. 5 days after i tested positive I did work in my home office. I wore a mask when I walked through the house but not in my office. My wife caught it this month. She stayed in a different room and once she felt better went back to her home office but wore a mask walking though the house. She ditched the mask once she tested negative. No one else caught it from us. Oldest kid caught it on his own at a concert. Everyone in the car with him came down with it the same day.

  53. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:36 pm

    My mother was testing positive for over a week after Paxlovid. Keep testing till it is negative. BTW no more free test kits from the feds after Friday. Order now or pony up at the pharmacy later.

    https://special.usps.com/testkits

  54. Juice Box says:
    August 29, 2022 at 7:53 pm

    I hope you got the right stuff to fly on this candle.

    Leaky seal problems and never fully tested in May/June, perhaps a bit rushed too to get in a win before the election?

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/08/warning-sign-nasa-never-finished-a-fueling-test-before-todays-sls-launch-attempt/

  55. Libturd says:
    August 29, 2022 at 9:34 pm

    I am already testing negative. I got a real mild case of it. Though I can still feel a little ear cloggage and fuzziness a week later. Going to mask one more day and that’s it. There is no way ANYONE is following the CDC recommendations of five days in a mask post quarantine.

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