From the FT:
Big US mortgage lenders turn screws on smaller rivals as rates rise
The two largest US mortgage lenders are turning up the heat on their smaller competitors, offering discounts and other incentives to win market share as rising interest rates have slowed homebuying activity.
The aggressive strategies pursued by Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage, the largest and second-largest US mortgage originators, respectively, come as many lenders are pulling back from the market or going out of business.
Rocket is promising homebuyers it will waive closing, appraisal and other refinancing fees if they obtain a new mortgage and interest rates drop within a three-year period starting from July.
UWM, which specialises in serving independent real estate brokers, said in June it would lower interest rates on its loan products by 50 to 100 basis points to help brokers win more business.
Rocket chief executive Jay Farner said this month he saw an opportunity to “lean in” as competitors retreat, and his counterpart at UWM struck a similar tone during its second-quarter earnings presentation.
“We are being very aggressive in this environment,” UWM chief executive Mat Ishbia said. “I’m not really focused on the margins . . . it’s an investment for the long term.”
FirstFirst.
second ….
Are you kidding? Of f*cking course GenX did it better. From Fast Company:
Generation X: the original quiet quitters
They’re “defining a new work ethic based on balance and fulfillment.”
They’re embracing a “laziness that values raw honesty over prestige or job security.”
They’re a “nomadic” workforce that “sees every job as temporary.”
No, those quotes are not from the latest round of hot takes about Gen Z and “quiet quitting.” They’re all from ’90s-era newspaper articles describing the generation that was then taking the workplace by storm: Generation X.
Grim: You are absolutely right. I remember those articles and discussions by various talking head etc IBM was often mentioned as an example the Gen X kids had parents who worked there for years, only to be dumped by the company . The Gen x ers did not want that kind of life. They were also referred to as the latchkey generation, no parents around after school.
Gen X kids were smacked in the face with the two tier wage system by the Boomers and Greatest who gave themselves the benefits and pensions-denying it for the younger workers, and setting the stage for what is happening with Gen Z.
Same boomers and Greatest who think it’s patriotic to send jobs overseas- now crying like little girls about China and how we need to defeat them.
Created the problem while profiting-now wanting to attack them economically, and threatening them militarily. Grey haired old goat with two brain cells and the strongest military in the world taunting them after sending all of the work there in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s.
Can someone find a farm willing to put him in the pasture to graze out there before he starts WW3?
And take the Orange headed dolt with him. Maybe put them both in the same pasture and let them duke it out.
This one in NJ. I wonder how much he is going to get.
https://bit.ly/3Q1qxtZ
Can we please put that kid in public office somewhere, right now.
He’s not going to compromise your rights and wealth away in the name of ‘just get something done’. Lol.
I agree with the captions in the video in that the second officer’s initial reaction was he shouldn’t have been stopped. Very sad that he decided to support his partner’s unlawful actions. He could have easily asked the kid to please wait for a few seconds while he talk to his partner… then tell the partner to just let it go… and then send the kid on his way. Maybe, he was nervous to correct a superior or thought his ego was too fragile. Inexcusable.
Pretty good stuff from a kid obviously trolling cops to make money from lawsuits. I can only imagine what his parents are like?
Doubt it, because the kid didn’t have his own camera recording them.
I can only imagine what the rest of that police force is like, including the Chief, if they don’t know basic laws.
“I can only imagine what his parents are like?”
I’m guessing not moderate lemmings.
7:34 relatable. We also watched big cradle to grave employers like AT&T layoff thousands. We knew we were expendable from the get go.
That video was epic. Lol.
“How long have you been a cop?”
“Longer than you”
“Hahaha I’m not a cop you fucking retard”
LOL.
I can only imagine what the rest of that police force is like, including the Chief, if they don’t know basic laws.
Most know the law. They just lie. And gaslight when you know your rights.
I don’t like being disrespectful like this kid. But when you open the door you cause this kind of response.
Phoenix
A few years ago that police force responded to a suicidal man. They shot him to death.
Isn’t that Tony Soprano’s kid?
Ironic that the second officer was junior to the first, but I believe Corporal is a somewhat meaningless police rank, not necessarily distinguished from patrolman other than having some shift supervisory duty (team lead, etc.)
He’s about to get some corporal punishment. We hope.
Re: housing/mortgage rates:
Doing a wide search from the eastern part of Upper Bergen down through Carlstadt still showing not much in the way of inventory and no price drops of notice. Anything worth it has a “5” handle. Anything with a “4” handle is shabby, dated, awkward or combo of all. It’s a bit surprising as the price of food and the utility bill is making my eyes pop so I presume most everyone else is feeling it, too. Food and fuel is just off the charts. Inflation is way worse than what’s being reported. As for house prices, perhaps it’ll take a while to really notice any drops but this area, the NYC/NJ metro area just seems to be stubborn as hell.
Speaking of inflation, the oil change place I used just raised their prices by about 25%, across the board. My $40 quick lube with free car wash (semi synthetic), is now $49.99. Still, a pretty fair deal since the wash is quality, but was once a great deal is now just meh.
Lib,
Everything is becoming eyepopping in price. Nothing is reasonable. I find myself budgeting harder than I’ve had to in the past. I never spent needlessly but now I pause and if it’s something needed, I compare prices and look for better bargains. The lower income folks got to be hurting fiercely!
I remember older folks explaining that they were getting raises mid-year when inflation was running 10%. Now, it is 8-9% for year two and businesses are not stepping up. They are putting on you to leave for bigger raise, it seems.
Lib, look at TREX. Likely won’t make it through your model with recent performance but quality company that is down with homebuilders…at 52L, deservedly as they hacked their 3Q and 4Q forecasts due to inventory channel backup but bottom line market is wide open for them and they are the leader with massive wood->composite conversion potential (market still 75% wood…).
Their guidance seems severe, hopefully, and any slowdown should span two fiscal years (22 and 23) blunting the impact and making multiples not unreasonable. Would expect this to roar coming out of a downturn.
Worth a watchlist space.
I had the same experience just yesterday. An oil change that cost $32 just a few months ago is now $46.
grim says:
August 30, 2022 at 7:34 am
“They’re [Gen X] “defining a new work ethic based on balance and fulfillment.”
It’s called the feminization of America (the west as a whole) and it began long before Gen X. The whole concept of work-life balance is a mirage (if there are children), pushed by women who felt/feel entitled to a fulfilling career and story book home life/lifestyle like they see on Magnolia TV. Life becomes a rat race for couples; making more but spending more, with more stress and anxiety. And as a society it gets you feckless and incompetent leaders like Pete B, our no-show Sec Trans who took paternity leave while there was a 40 day backup at the port of LA, and Germany’s own frumpy Merkel, who led them to a disastrous energy dependence/shortage because of her crush on bad boy Vlad.
I thought business casual attire was the reason behind the downfall of western society?
Chicago says:
August 27, 2022 at 9:55 pm
Wow. That is pretty interesting.
Fabius Maximus says:
August 27, 2022 at 10:44 am
Chi, I think you need to have a chat with your boss.
Fab: I want to follow up here to close the loop.
First, you did me a service, albeit unintentionally. I know your general input on these boards is mostly rhetorical, malevolent and egocentric. That said, your effort to bring light to publicly available business information that affects me is appreciated, even though you did it under a pseudonym and completely unsolicited.
I want to apologize to grim for calling his business out too.
I will state that this person is not my “boss”. He effectively functions as the landlord of my business. Further, the disclosure reflects the fact that that business is a sole proprietorship. If that is not clear, restated, I derive no financial interest in the benefits of that contract.
Where you provide me with a service is that I was blind to this fact, and I will be confronted with this information in the future by the general population. I need to be prepared for pointed questions in this area, and you have given me the opportunity to research and have a clear answer. It is feasible that I have already lost business, and may lose business in the future, due to this reality. Certain people tend to be puritanical at times. As always, I will need to make my best decision currently and in the future about where to conduct my professional affairs.
In the process of researching this area through discussions with various CPA’s, I was shocked to find out the extent of the opportunism out there (at least in NJ). I think of the old saw that the IQ of people in jail is lower than average, because it is generally the stupid people that get caught.
Every mom & pop I know took advantage. It’s the American Way. Free money…..weeeeeeeeee.
You down with PPP? Yeah you know me!
1:08 yet your mom still thinks you are a “catch”.
The new mentality is the leverage both spouses’ talents.
There’s no guarantee that you’ll end up in a traditional arrangement
where a man is the primary breadwinner. In an age of increased
opportunity for women, if you’re lucky you’re lucky, the woman in the family
will make big bucks. Money is blind to gender.
SmallCon,
Is not feminism. The links are for you:
https://youtu.be/Rg_YmjP__14
This one shows the problems you are having with your stone kid since legalization.
https://youtu.be/cq6Byx0c5sM
Apart from the aforementioned lack of corporate loyalty. The main lesson we Xr’s learned came from a fan of one of your hero Ayn Rand.
Greenspan as Fed chairman taught us that value of work and building a business means nothing. What matter is gambling aka speculation. A job/career is to hold you over until you find your successful stock, houses, horses, politics speculative event that will make you rich. Just keep following the feds bubble and time it right.
Closed my shorts today. Gonna watch from the sidelines the rest of the week.
the PPP thing is a black eye. We shut you down, but here, take some free money so you don’t complain, no we blacklist you and use it against you.
Maybe I am just naive. People don’t let you pick and choose with political ideologies, but there are many features of libertarianism that are spot on.
Also, somehow people just don’t look in the mirror. Quick to use the index finger, but seldom the thumb.
Libturd says:
August 30, 2022 at 2:13 pm
Every mom & pop I know took advantage. It’s the American Way. Free money…..weeeeeeeeee.
You down with PPP? Yeah you know me!
Tomorrow is end of month. Also, as you are probably indirectly noting, it is a holiday week. I also think this action is a little front running September.
I keep wanting more yield on The Ten.
BRT says:
August 30, 2022 at 2:58 pm
Closed my shorts today. Gonna watch from the sidelines the rest of the week.
“I keep wanting more yield on The Ten.”
Yup. It’s the one part of the equation that is not adding up. But it will soon enough. I expected the next leg down to occur in the Fall. Hold on to your hats as the belt tightening finally occurs. I mean, Pandemic. Come on. We all deserved this Summer.
3.15% 12 month CD I find on Fidelity from Wells Fargo. Beats 0%
5 year CDs offer 3.5%.
I’ll wait until after the next Fed hike to buy my next slug.
TD Ameritrade has the following CD rates.
3 months———2.55
6 month———-2.9
9 month———-3.136
12 month——- 3.327
2 yr—————-3.429
5yr—————–3.97
All are FDIC insured and can be sold any time with no penalty and sold for market value. This time next month they will be up another 1% or s0. All major banks Wells Fargo, JP Morgan , Goldman Sachs , Discover Bank etc..
I am laddered out for the next 4 years .
Steve Hanke Economist at Johns Hopkins says we are going to have a “ whopper” of a recession next year.
Well, you doom and gloomers are finally going to get what you always wanted. Enjoy the pain that is coming for you. You will have your cheap prices, but it won’t be cheap to anyone who is buying. If real estate drops big time, it means people are starving in the streets. Remember that.
“China’s Property Market Has Slid Into Severe Depression, Real-Estate Giant Says
Country Garden, which for years ranked as China’s top real-estate developer, reports 96% drop in first-half profit”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-market-has-slid-into-severe-depression-real-estate-giant-says-11661863259
I love the positive outlook at the end of the article…that china real estate market will be back by next June. I am hoping, but have zero faith in that happening.
“Country Garden on Tuesday sounded an optimistic note for the future. It said China’s economy is resilient, remains positioned for long-term growth, and the country’s urbanization is still under way. “The real estate industry will always exist,” the company added.
Its chairman, Mo Bin, apologized to investors for the sharp drop in profit during an earnings call. Mr. Mo said the company will keep adjusting its strategies and focus on keeping a balance between its cash flow, assets and debts, and profits. The Chinese property market will return to a stage of healthy development by next June, he predicted.”
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 30, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Well, you doom and gloomers are finally going to get what you always wanted.
Pumpkin , I cannot help it if you have not saved for a rainy day, your problem not mine. Inflation must be stopped, current administration has allowed SS increase of 5.9% and projected 9.5 % increases. Talking about bankrupting a country, what are they thinking??? The damage may be beyond repair.
China is in the beginning of an epic collapse Peter Zeihan has done a lot of research around it. He has a few books and several videos.
It’s a demographic collapse there’s no solution.
There goes pumpkin and his obsession with demographics.
Jim,
I am more than fine. You must take me for some fool, which I am not. I bring in a lot more money than I spend.
From one of his books. Interesting stuff.
“Product Description
The freshman book of New York Times Bestselling Author of The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.
An eye-opening assement of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years.
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world’s oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal – it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In The Accidental Superpower, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that – alone among the developed nations – is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America’s geography is simply sublime.”
The Great Pumpkin says:
August 30, 2022 at 8:17 pm
Jim,
I am more than fine. You must take me for some fool, which I am not. I bring in a lot more money than I spend.
Then why are you crying like a little baby??Man up, be a big boy. OH I forgot your wife will take care of you, and your grammy. You crack me up humpy.
I wasn’t crying…just pointing out that major headwinds and changes are upon us.
Find yourself with extra money?
Get a swimming pool. Problem solved.
“I thought business casual attire was the reason behind the downfall of western society?”
I thought it was Obamas brown suit!
Lovely.
“No running water in Jackson. The heat index is 102 degrees. Schools and universities are closed. No way to cook, clean, bathe. This is capital city, and the biggest city in Mississippi.”
If you’ve ever visited Mississippi this would not surprise you.
Cook, yes. Bathe and clean? Not a problem.
Heard today that people will be going back into the office to save money on heating their homes this winter
jj Lives:
https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1564695117063143429?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1564695117063143429%7Ctwgr%5Ea4f206bdfa6d666cde8970915cb55c205e55fd23%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2022%2F08%2F30%2Fblue-jays-fans-escorted-out-of-game-for-in-stadium-sex-act%2F
“Inflation must be stopped, current administration has allowed SS increase of 5.9% and projected 9.5 % increases. Talking about bankrupting a country, what are they thinking??? The damage may be beyond repair.”
The “current administration” has nothing to do with SS cost of living adjustments- they are required by law.
3b,
Steve Hanke Economist at Johns Hopkins says we are going to have a “ whopper” of a recession next year.
Way down the list on the minds of voters… destroying maga semi-fasc1sts and making the freedom to murder your baby nationalized are the main reasons people will ballot harvest… umm… run to the polls.
LAKEWOOD, N.J. – A New Jersey township cut down all of the shade trees that once lined its town square in a controversial move designed to prevent homeless people from spending time there.
Lakewood Mayor Ray Coles said the decision was made after a recommendation from the Police Department Quality of Life Unit, which the township said was triggered by numerous complaints from residents and township employees about homeless people defecating and urinating in the area.
“They (homeless people) were harassing people, defecating between the cars and residents were complaining,” Coles said.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/jersey-town-cuts-down-trees-132930574.html
“Police Department Quality of Life Unit”
Does every town in NJ have one of these and what are they?
How about instead of this you go and help kids in the classroom and not hang out in the halls waiting for a key for an unlocked door?
Fast Eddie,
In case you forgot, the US is not a theocracy.
Jim: The sad thing is , a lot of this could have been avoided. The Fed kept rates too low, too long. The Covid spending was the final straw, but it started years before. People were cheering the Fed, rates are low, my house value is increasing, my stock portfolio is increasing. Keep it going rah rah! Anyone that warned this was madness and could not last, was ridiculed and called a fool. Housing demand was driving prices up, not rates. And yet rates are still historically low, and housing demand. Buyers are smart and savvy and have lots of disposable cash, and yet that does not appear to be the case. 20 percent price increase in a year in house prices, and we were told it was warranted. On and on it went, until the Fed finally woke up late and are no doing what they should have been doing earlier, raising rates. Now we have some people crying in these various articles about this will be painful, and some with their faux concern and pity for the lower income/ poor people. No one wants a painful recession, but that’s the outcome of engaging in reckless monetary policies. This belief that some have that this madness could have continued, and we need to lower rates and get the party started again is insane.
Life is cheap and fun when you’re running up the balances on moms credit cards with no intention whatsoever of paying any of the balance personally…
Debt to GDP is now a whopping 124%
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
The NJEA is sick. Making those poor kids in Newark wear masks to school. They can’t vote and have no political representation. On top of the pedophile grooming they are introducing this year. And they wonder why teachers are dropping out.
And Murphy is down in DC trying to build his presidential resume. Champion of people groomers. He might as well announce it now.
Mom’s credit card? Looking more like mom and grandma have been putting the debt on their children and using the government to force them to pay it back.
Let’s not forget how much children are going to have to pay because there was so much expenditure towards grandma during Covid at the expense of the youth.
“N.J. debt rose to nearly $250B last year as public worker pension costs soared”
Life is cheap and fun when you’re running up the balances on moms credit cards with no intention whatsoever of paying any of the balance personally…
It appears the man is a criminal. I said appears because it’s been proven many times over that those whose job it is to enforce the law are sometimes criminals themselves.
Trump had classified documents in his DESK: Blockbuster DOJ filing reveals government has retrieved 320 files from Mar-a-Lago since January – including 100 in raid found AFTER his lawyers conducted a ‘diligent search’
The Fed raised rates the fastest in decades. Of course this will kill demand, not many people want to buy stocks or housing in a rising rate environment. If you think people still don’t want to buy a house, you are wrong. They do, but the rising rates are now pricing them out. It’s the whole purpose of raising rates this quickly, to kill demand in the economy. So don’t say there is no demand when it has been artificially cut off. Big difference.
My point in simple terms. Demand did drive up pricing, but the Fed was forced to shut it down due to inflation.
“Housing demand was driving prices up, not rates. And yet rates are still historically low, and housing demand. Buyers are smart and savvy and have lots of disposable cash, and yet that does not appear to be the case. 20 percent price increase in a year in house prices, and we were told it was warranted.”
Man, like clockwork. Cycles are all it ever is. Some decades the city is “in,” and others the suburbs are “in.”
Nj would be smart to stop getting rid of their commercial buildings and turning them into residential. Going to be a big mistake. They could easily be the leader of this trend like they were in the past when suburbs were “in” for those generations.
“Large investors, meanwhile, are showing plenty of uninhibited appetite for office buildings, if this $1.1 billion porfolio deal is any indication. Singapore’s GIC Pte. Ltd. and Workspace Property Trust will take a majority stake in 53 suburban office properties, Konrad Putzier reports. The investors are betting more companies will seek out offices closer to where their employees live.”
“Singapore’s GIC Pte. Ltd. and Workspace Property Trust are buying a majority stake in 53 suburban office buildings, in a deal valuing the properties at $1.1 billion, a major bet that remote work will boost demand for workplaces close to residential areas.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/deal-for-office-space-near-big-u-s-cities-bets-on-suburban-lifestyle-remote-work-11661770802?page=1&mod=djemRealEstate_h
Phoenix,
Why not both?
The president is the sovereign. He decides what is and is not classified, not some unaccountable bureaucrats. This is yet another hoax. Each becomes lamer and less credible than the last. The entire premise is pathetic.
The whole purpose is to harass and ostracize the man. His constitution rights have been obliterated. The left is proud of the fact.
Speaking of financial negligence, here’s what the latest “State of the States” report said about NJ, scoring next to last:
(49) NEW JERSEY taxpayers are on
the hook for $58,300 as of fiscal year
2020. The beginning of the pandemic
and subsequent downturn in the market
hurt New Jersey’s pension plans. The
state’s major pension plans expected a
7.0 percent return on investment when
in reality they received 1.4 percent. The
state remains in abysmal fiscal health
and had no money set aside to weather
the current or any future crisis.
US News also ranks NJ next to last in long term fiscal stability.
Last one out pays off all the debt!
You lost me at sovereign.
The president is the sovereign. He decides what is and is not classified, not some unaccountable bureaucrats.
President.
Not King, Führer, Monarch, Chancellor, Prime Minister, Emperor.
President.
Oh, and by the way that goes for Biden as well.
And who cares about him being harassed any more than any other individual in the USA except that he will not be held accountable or he will get away with his crimes more than the average individual.
The police are used as weapons against average citizens every day. He can suck it up like the rest of us.
“Last one out pays off all the debt!”
Thanks Boomer. And “Greatest.”
Can’t blame little Billy in third grade.
GOAT,
The constitution is designed to prevent the president from being sovereign. Sure you don’t want to get caught up in petty details like facts.
Then look up the meaning. No one can overrule his power to declassify.
Bureaucrats at the national archives? Lol. Sure, next hoax.
For the fbi to show up down there armed etc to perpetuate this hoax shows Hepworth desperate and political they’ve become. It’s a National disgrace.
The whole purpose is to harass and ostracize the man. His constitutional rights have been obliterated.
https://youtu.be/aPvb_mszKew?t=40
Based upon the view of the Trumpers here we should be a theocracy ruled by a king. Is this what Great Again looks like to you?
Can’t wait for the FEDERAL bailout. :)
This will not be paid by jersey. Rightfully so, all the people that ran the bill up ran to other states.
“US News also ranks NJ next to last in long term fiscal stability.
Last one out pays off all the debt!”
I’m a big backer of the constitution. The new radical left is not. They don’t have much use fire at least the 1st,2nd,4th and 14th amendments. Big obstacles for them.
Power to declassify belongs to the president. Anything else is just falling for another hoax.
“For the fbi to show up down there armed ”
Means they had the “legal” right to do it.
You don’t get to pick and choose the form of legal that you like.
So do you “Back the Blue” or not? Cause last time I checked the FBI is about as blue as it gets.
You wanna sick the blue on those you don’t like, Hillary for example, (I don’t like her either)then suck it up when they go for the guy you like.
I’ll never forget the morning they came and threw me out of my house on a false allegation by my ex in my bedroom slippers. You see just how fast your “rights” are wiped out in an instant.
Your rights:
https://youtu.be/6350QhN4Quo?t=81
The FBI will be great again if R takes control and prosecute Hunter..the disgusting rhetoric about killing agents will magically go away, just like the promise to lock her up. GOAT is just spouting the typical R nut-job stuff. Trump is a victim, a saint who never did a thing wrong. They truly want a dictator if he will hurt the libs exclusively. They don’t love the constitution. They are Kurtz/temple worshippers. There is no brain activity other than that.
No. I didn’t say that. You’re king of straw man arguments. Hard to defend something I didn’t say.
But speaking of Hunter. . Impeachment hoax I was a cover up of the Bidens and their corruption in Ukraine. How is that going for you? Worldwide chaos in exchange for the Bidens enriching themselves.
And the fbi was investigating Hunter in 2018 at the latest. They could have charged him then. It’s too late now that he can be pardoned.
“Power to declassify belongs to the president. Anything else is just falling for another hoax.”
Irrelevant. In their search warrant application, DOJ cited 3 laws that they thought may have been broken- none of them require the documents to be “classified.”
So GOAT..an investigation always means charges are there? I know you want that but too bad..and it does not always mean that there is a conspiracy. Bidens did something wrong then they will be prosecuted. You should say same for Orange clown but nope..
The narrative has shifted to suit the situation. Just like the other hoaxes. It was nuclear secrets one day, the next it’s something else.
Supposedly the average person breaks the federal laws per day. Most are ignored. Make enemies of powerful bureaucrats and that may change.
This is a political investigation and a hoax. Sadly it diminishes the country and the presidency. Thanks banana Joe.
Phoenix-
Did you know that the central park birder that Karen called the cops on is getting his own birding show on the National Geographic channel?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/arts/television/christian-cooper-central-park-birder.html
“Mom’s credit card? Looking more like mom and grandma have been putting the debt on their children and using the government to force them to pay it back.”
I get your Boomer shtick but the more the political ‘moderates’ can have Boomer /GenX staring down GenZ nose to nose the less those voting cohorts will be able to look to the immediate Left and Right and see these moderates ‘compromising’ their lives away…nearly every program busting your budget was the work of bipartisan, moderate compromise…
“Let’s not forget how much children are going to have to pay because there was so much expenditure towards grandma during Covid at the expense of the youth.”
Government choice by your panty-waisted, frightened little liberal leaders. Did not need to happen by any means. Vote accordingly, or suffer the same on something similar….
We had no choice on whether the pandemic would occur here. We had unlimited choices how to address it. Those that choice to shut the world down nearly in total massively failed you, and those ramifications are still being felt.
That idiot fem-bot Governor in CA actually shut beaches on the fear that the spray from waves could transmit covid. Literally can not make up that level of stupidity.
Based upon the view of the Trumpers here we should be a theocracy ruled by a king.
I don’t get the theocracy thing. I never even considered it. Our nation was founded on Judeo-Christian beliefs but today, I find that to mean being accountable, responsible and obligated. I don’t mean the POTUS per say but each individual American. Excuses and making rules as we go along seem to have replaced process and effort. Those on the right have their flaws for sure but the left has driven completely off the rails.
OC1 says:
August 31, 2022 at 12:19 am
“Inflation must be stopped, current administration has allowed SS increase of 5.9% and projected 9.5 % increases. Talking about bankrupting a country, what are they thinking??? The damage may be beyond repair.”
The “current administration” has nothing to do with SS cost of living adjustments- they are required by law.
Absolutely correct, but the current administration is CAUSING the inflation, and there lies the problem. As soon as Joe shut down the pipelines inflation went crazy. Now he is giving away money and causing more inflation. The facts are in the numbers. Like I said ” current administration has allowed SS increase of 5.9% and projected 9.5 % increases. Talking about bankrupting a country ”
Previous 6 years were all under 2%
As soon as Joe shut down the pipelines inflation went crazy. Now he is giving away money and causing more inflation.
$790 billion dollars to funnel money back to the democrat coiffures in the guise of a heist called the Inflation Reduction Act. Spend more to reduce inflation… and the muppets rejoice. Let’s now erase another $550 billion to reduce student debt by $10,000 per person because these individuals can’t get a job with a gender studies degree and hey, maybe they’ll vote for us!! And you’re being told to pay for it. Go ahead, vote for dems some more. You liberals are like an abused partner, making soup for your significant other after you’ve been physically beaten once again.
12:18 thanks. That was insightful analysis.
Here is a list of increases since 1975, who should we blame Trump , Bush, Clinton Obama?????? Here is a clue, he has a son named Hunter.
Social Security Cost-Of-Living Adjustments
Year COLA
1975 8.0
1976 6.4
1977 5.9
1978 6.5
1979 9.9
1980 14.3
1981 11.2
1982 7.4
1983 3.5
1984 3.5
1985 3.1
1986 1.3
1987 4.2
1988 4.0
1989 4.7
1990 5.4
1991 3.7
1992 3.0
1993 2.6
1994 2.8
Year COLA
1995 2.6
1996 2.9
1997 2.1
1998 1.3
1999 a 2.5
2000 3.5
2001 2.6
2002 1.4
2003 2.1
2004 2.7
2005 4.1
2006 3.3
2007 2.3
2008 5.8
2009 0.0
2010 0.0
2011 3.6
2012 1.7
2013 1.5
2014 1.7
Year COLA
2015 0.0
2016 0.3
2017 2.0
2018 2.8
2019 1.6
2020 1.3
2021 5.9
Leon Cooperman recommended this book during a speech about his fight with the SEC.
Three Felonies a Day
The average professional in this country wakes up in the morning, goes to work, comes home, eats dinner, and then goes to sleep, unaware that he or she has likely committed several federal crimes that day. Why? The answer lies in the very nature of modern federal criminal laws, which have exploded in number but also become impossibly broad and vague. In Three Felonies a Day, Harvey A. Silverglate reveals how federal criminal laws have become dangerously disconnected from the English common law tradition and how prosecutors can pin arguable federal crimes on any one of us, for even the most seemingly innocuous behavior. The volume of federal crimes in recent decades has increased well beyond the statute books and into the morass of the Code of Federal Regulations, handing federal prosecutors an additional trove of vague and exceedingly complex and technical prohibitions to stick on their hapless targets. The dangers spelled out in Three Felonies a Day do not apply solely to “white collar criminals,” state and local politicians, and professionals. No social class or profession is safe from this troubling form of social control by the executive branch, and nothing less than the integrity of our constitutional democracy hangs in the balance.
Eddie,
You talk about people killing their babies, but you don’t understand why I am talking about a theocracy? Religious beliefs driving laws that a minority of the country feels are correct is out of step with democracy. Mid term elections are around the corner and the Republicans are going to blow a can’t lose election over abortion. New voter registrations are overwhelmingly women and all signs point to record voter participation by women. Voters care about their abortion rights and it is going to come back to bite Republicans on the a#s. Tick, tick, tick…
Fast,
“$790 billion dollars to funnel money back to the democrat coiffures in the guise of a heist called the Inflation Reduction Act.”
This is no different than the Trump Tax Act (or whatever it was called), during the greatest economy ever.
They are ALL the same. In it to enrich themselves. Placating their bases to try to stay in power. At the end of the day, they all belong in jail.
Libturd says:
August 31, 2022 at 1:45 pm
They are ALL the same. In it to enrich themselves. Placating their bases to try to stay in power. At the end of the day, they all belong in jail.
AMEN!
Left,
No argument from me on your post.
OC1
Good for him. I don’t know what makes someone so driven to birds. Or why some guys like feet. (Al Bundy). It’s his gig. However, he does seem passionate enough to deserve a show on it since that freak who clearly lied ( I have seen that behavior before-my ex- claiming to be a victim while advancing towards the “so called” aggressor.) A shout out again to all of those engineers who have provided us with video and audio tools that bring out the truth for all to see.
It’s a way to get justice when the American legal “justice fallacy” system fails you.
I was supposed to have my daughter this morning. Her mother texts last night, says she has to work, can’t drop her off at the time in our agreement. So I text her back, I can get her sooner this morning, I’m off work. I’ll take her when you leave for work. Then she lies, claims my daughter has school, but no, her district hasn’t started yet I text her back. Doesn’t tell me where my daughter is, doesn’t meet at the drop off.
No contact at all.
I text one of my daughter’s friends mother. A witch that has in the past, when in possession of my daughter, refused to respond when I have first right of refusal in my divorce decree. I ask her, is my daughter with you?
Her response: No she isn’t!!!!!!!!
Yes, with all of those exclamation points.
I respond back, “Thank you for your prompt response, have a blessed day.
Her response: F you!!!!!!
Now that was funny.
Phoenix,
Just hold it together until your kids are 18. Once they get into college, they will realize that their mother is a POS. I’ve seen it time and time again. But don’t be an asshole and proof her right.
Voters care about their abortion rights…
Translation: Responsibility, a sense of obligation, sacrifice, accountability, duty and effort are impediments to my comfort and leisure and I want acknowledgment that I can act recklessly if I choose.
Give the muppets what they want. The left elected a drupe for a president and want to double down and demand absolution in order to move on to the next “freedom” of choice.
Prove
This is no different than the Trump Tax Act (or whatever it was called), during the greatest economy ever.
Nope. Wrong. People got bonuses, research was expanded, projects were given a green light and headcount was increased.
Lib,
I just turn on the lights as bright as possible to make the cockroaches become visible.
It’s all good.
Asking if your child is with someone who has harbored them in the past illegally is a perfectly legitimate question. Funny thing is this one is an ultraconservative Christian right wing coo-koo for Cocoa-Puffs.
She really should have her husband approve her posts to other people in the community although I am not convinced he is any brighter than the 20 watt she is.
And that is 20 watt incandescent. Not LED.
Guess Ol’ Ross should have warned about China as well:
Perot’s warning
“You implement that NAFTA, the Mexican trade agreement, where they pay people a dollar an hour, have no health care, no retirement, no pollution controls,” Perot said during the second presidential debate in October 1992, “and you’re going to hear a giant sucking sound of jobs being pulled out of this country.”
The response to that remark was fierce and immediate. Economists argued he was dead wrong as they sang the praises of free trade.
“Nope. Wrong. People got bonuses, research was expanded, projects were given a green light and headcount was increased.”
So will the stupidly named inflation reduction act.
Truth is, both will be net losers.
In other news,
Haven’t visited a Costco much, don’t really need much in bulk these days.
They have self checkout now. Eliminating jobs through technology just like the rest.
Watched a show on robot lawn mowers. Few more years less grass cutters.
Expect to see more tents in your local parks.
Some NJ data on subsidies:
https://farm.ewg.org/top_recips.php?fips=34000&progcode=totalfarm®ionname=NewJersey
Speaking of lawns we have a water emergency, and selfish people still watering their lawns. Suburban people and their obsession with lawns.
Maybe in your work Ed. We got zilch, nada..but a penny at old Euro IB. They pocketed it. My current IB simply purchased more stock buy-packs during Trump’s reign. It never got shared below. Now with Joe’s hot market, I am batting away 25% to 30% raises. I just won’t go into city 3 days a week. Thanks Joe..a real workers economy.
Bigger problem is road salt, but that will never end.
By,
It only helped those with large quantities of shares.
I don’t know why some of you guys continue to argue, over the Dems and Repubs, they are both awful, and neither one cares for the overwhelming majority of American people.
We had 4 years of psycho Trump and all the Dems could offer us was old corrupt Joe Biden, a liar and plagiarize a bought and paid for corrupt politician, who inspires zero confidence. On the Repubs side after 4 years of Trump chaos he appears to still be the standard bearer for the Republican Party. We isn’t Mc Connell and the rest of the Republican establishment repudiating Trump, once and for all??? Even the NY Post is criticizing him.
So as it stands now we will have. two octogenarians as our choice for President in 2024, a bought and paid for corrupt politician Biden with a corrupt screwed up Son, that old Joe is covering for, or a lunatic who demand he be seated as President effective immediately. So go ahead and argue, but what’s the point? Just stop voting.
This nation wasn’t founded on “Judeo Christian beliefs”. It was founded primarily on enlightenment era beliefs, primarily the “natural rights” doctrine for all men in contrast to thousands of years of “divine right of kings” to rule the people, where the King and the Church allied to give each other power over the people. See John Locke. Yes most of the US founders were Christian, though not all, but the deep thinkers contemplating the structure of the US government debated history and clearly wanted no part of the kind of government that Christianity had had a bigger role in creating historically.
The Pledge of Allegiance was invented in 1892 by some preacher but even he didn’t dare include “under god” in the words until politicians shoved it in in 1954.
This big surge of Republican religiosity gained momentum in the 1980s when Reagan got the evangelicals to sign on to his candidacy in return for promising to let them their churchly desires into politics. I blame William F Buckley and his gang for pushing a religious traditionalism on Republicans. I’d much favor the Barry Goldwater, secular, libertarian side of the Republican party that has pretty much died off. Pete DuPont and Steve Forbes are the last candidates I can think of as representatives. Now Republicans are courting the poor, stupid, religious types, and need simple dumb slogans that can fit into their meager brains.
NOTA.
My candidate for much of the 21st century.
And the Dems (like most of my friends) think their sh1t doesn’t stink.
Eddie,
Between my girlfriend and myself we have 8 kids, 3 of which are adopted. My ex and my girlfriend combined have had 3 abortions. Who are you to judge what is right or wrong for me and mine? Kids range from 30 to 12. Five through college, 2 currently in college and 1 to go. My kids are all among the oldest and have no student loans. None of the trite stupidity you puked up applies. As difficult as it maybe for your crippled brain to understand, there are lots of people who defy your ignorant stereotypes.
What America was founded on, from Harvard Business School:
In fact, the industrial revolution was born on stolen property, the author says. The country, in the form of Alexander Hamilton, George Washington, and other policy greats condoned the stealing of mechanical and scientific innovations, some of which had been willingly shared with the colonies by England and Europe. Unauthorized reprints from British authors filled libraries and bookstores. European craftsmen were lured to American shores with promises of land, and industrial spies were dispatched across the Atlantic. Treasury Secretary Hamilton’s report to Congress in 1791, called “Report on Manufactures,” was a proposal for a federal program to engage in industrial theft from other countries on a grand scale.
The great irony (and, from the author’s view, hypocrisy) is that while the early American republic was stealing and profiting from European ideas, at the same time it was enacting aggressive patent protections to benefit inventors at home.
Is this important to the modern-day executive? If you worry that China—to take one example—is appropriating the secrets of your best technology in exchange for market access, perhaps the lessons of history can be of value.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/trade-secrets-intellectual-piracy-and-the-origins-of-american-industrial-power
No one And the Dems have their own stupid and dumb people. Oh and the more sophisticated ones of course who have contempt for the less cultured as they might say Americans, and more than a few of them are quiet racists and anti semites as well.
Both parties blow!!
3b,
Yes, the Democrats are the collectivist party, which is the main reason I hate them. I think collectivism is the bigger long term threat to America versus the unreason of religiosity.
If you want to find haters of America, Harvard is a good place to go looking.
BTW, this is an angle that the propagandists of China love pushing now (because it criticizes the US while using it as an excuse for their own behavior). Phoenix you should ask Xi for your $0.50 reward for propagating it further.
There were lots of thing America did that I would disagree with but to claim that American industrial growth was founded on IP theft is a vast exaggeration.
Phoenix. That is a repository, the author is not from HBS. Not even a business school.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doron_Ben-Atar
I need to vent after this PPP research. I can’t believe the behavior of the wider professional community where I work.
Anyway, walking through the Basie Football field and get to the end by a parking lot. I notice an NJ Transit maintenance truck that was idling. Pretty hot day. Fucking dude just sitting in a truck reading the Daily News with the air conditioning on. He looked up sheepishly and nervously, seemingly concerned I might take a photo of him.
Given everything going on, including the need to rationalize NJ Transit operations and also the crazy price of gas, I was just shocked at the sheer brazenness of doing something like that. At least crack the windows and turn the diesel truck off.
3b,
Make note that all the conservatives here rush to blame women for problems today. That is pretty stark difference in thought between sides, as well as very twisted. I would say problems started over 40 years ago with rush to dump manufacturing/outsource labor, dump pensions and expand consumer debt while Fed handsomely rewarded the asset holders. Keep the avg consumer just above water while the debt shufflers take their cut and get paid like kings. They run like cry-babies to govt when their market softens..and here we are, stimulating forever. Education costs, women in workforce, more technology reliance and fatter/mentally unfit society are symptoms of the 40 year policy, not causes. Less women’s right. more guns and more Jesus are not the answers. Funny – I have never run into a LGBT person who negatively impacted my life because of their beliefs. I also had a mother who raised 6 kids while my father drank and partied during 60/70s mad-men days. She had zilch financial accounts, terrible cars and sc^wed in divorce settlement. That impacted my life. A molester Catholic jesuit at my old HS and living 20m from Newtown also impacted my life. There you go..
Wrote some deep OTM puts (10-20% down) on some names that still have some volatility and some good support lines, expiring 9/16…going as volatile as CRWD…
Thought is that a decline that steep over the next 16 days, while certainly possible, is mitigated by the long weekend and recent daily declines…tomorrow should be dead, Friday not even worth logging in, then we wake up on the 6th and I’ve gone from 17 DTE to 10 DTE and should capture some solid premium decay.
Solomonic solution to not wanting to be in but afraid not to be….chi, I’m back at early August levels…capital preservation mode right now….
No One,
This nation wasn’t founded on “Judeo Christian beliefs.”
What I meant is that the Founders were devout Christians who drew from their religious convictions to answer most political questions. Biblical principles guided them, not necessarily that you better do “this” or you’ll burn in hell. It’s pretty much what I was saying above; accountability, duty, sacrifice, responsibility, etc. Twist it any way you want.
Now Republicans are courting the poor, stupid, religious types…
Of course, who needs those deplorable types! As long as my toilet flushes and I have my comforts to dictate who’s right and wrong perched on an ivory tower, that’s what’s most important!
No One,
Christianity is collectivism..my god. When you have people believing that they will live in eternal happiness on clouds by ensuring everyone else follows what master says in this book? Cmon, most of us got raised in this sh*t. Twelve years of Catholic school and I got away bc luckily my Irish mother challenged them all – nuns, priests, bishops. I was never taught to buy in hook, line and sinker. My poor wife got raised by born again father and Christian science mother. Holy mess. We all have these people right close to us. Religios doctrine is certainly the biggest problem with this country and we saw it with RvW clearly. Group Jesus think..and their hyprocitical stances when their checkbook conflicts. Also, they pay no taxes…what non-sense. The leaders of our dioceses broke around in Mercedes. Same in Brooklyn and lots of other Catholic districts. It is absurd.
I raised my kid without religion. Though we do talk about our existence on occasion. None the less, he is extremely empathetic, honest and knows right from wrong better than most. He is mature beyond his years. He’s the kid at parties who calls that kids parent’s who is suffering from alcohol poisoning. He doesn’t feel the need to get drunk. I’ve been sharing beer and wine with him his entire life. He knows how to enjoy alcohol without abusing it.
..and not just Christians..look at Hasidics living off govt dole with expensive places in city and NJ when you know damn well that they make good livings. That is more NYC area issue but still, it is rampant abuse of religion and women too. Breeding mules..they live at IVF banks, trying to have 3-4 kids at once. Nuttery..
Religion is for the weak-minded. Think for yourself. You do not need someone telling you wrong from right.
Lib,
Better than the red-nosed priest that I saw gulping the wine every Sunday. Teaching kids right from wrong does not require religion. I tell my kids about Jesus. I explain golden rule..then call it out in practice. I hope that is enough. They will read no book even if grammy pushes it. I drew the line at Bedtime bible stories for kids where the author thought a cartoon version of David vs Goliath, with the death summary, was appropriate. Nuttery.
“What I meant is that the Founders were devout Christians who drew from their religious convictions to answer most political questions. Biblical principles guided them”
Some were, most were not
We all know why religion exists.
“I’ve seen it time and time again. But don’t be an asshole and proof her right.”
Phoenix, unsolicited but my two cents…
You know parts of my background, but specifically my kids were 10-13 when our marriage openly turned to shit…and that was well after the daily issues with the addiction from their birth. They range from 21-24 now…adults, out of college except for the last….
The advice….children rarely recall what you say but always remember how you made them feel…sounds simple, think about it, live it…
They don’t want to be the judge in your divorce. They don’t want to be your (or her) attorney interpreting your custody agreement. They don’t want to be involved, they want to be normal. (So much so, that in discussion with my kids about why something could or could not happen I stopped referencing that ‘normal’ families do it this way but we don’t….because if ‘normal’ families do it, but we expressly don’t, then doesn’t that make them ‘not normal’?)
My experience, your best avenue for a better than normal relationship going forward is to make her feel like she is floating on clouds with you. Think Instagram-able moments…’my Dad is sooo cool’. There are so many things to do around the metropolitan area, and not that costly. She is never, ever with you because that’s what the agreement dictates – she is not chattel – she is with you (you tell her) because she is wonderful, enchanting, interesting, you love conversation with her, and there is no one you would rather be with. Do not criticize her mother or her mother’s actions – that will not make her feel good…you want her walking out of your place ecstatic over having seen you, not feeling like she just refereed (or partially the cause of) an ongoing argument between her parents. Big difference in feelings when that door closes behind her in those two scenarios…Big difference. Find her interests. Dive into them with her.
Otherwise, kid glove over an iron fist. Legally notice your wife on the agreement violations, pdf email and letter. Find a couple laws her friend may be breaking (remember, three felonies a day above) and get someone to sit on that place and document your daughter being there…then notice her with an intent to file. Don’t ever discuss any of this with your daughter (honey, let’s not talk about any of that, I’m just so happy you are here and want you to be happy too, what great thing are we doing today?!)…part of the point here is to get these two nutcases unhinged…think of the contrast of your calm, comfort, and safety with the craziness she’ll get from the other two…the gravitation begins….
I wish I didn’t learn so much by trial and error. Take that experience for what it may or may not be worth for your specific situation. But I can assure you this…children rarely recall what you say but always remember how you made them feel…don’t lose sight of that fact in your everyday interaction regarding and with her.
Eddie,
The founders, like me, were live and let live regarding religion. One of Jefferson’s proudest achievements was the Virginia statute for religious freedom. “An attempt to provide religious freedom to “the Jew, the Gentile, the Christian, the Mahometan, the Hindoo, and [the] infidel of every denomination.” Many of the founders were deists, as were a lot of intellectuals influenced by the enlightenment. I can’t picture many conservative Republicans of today fighting for the rights of infidels.
Phoenix,
I sympathize. I grew up around people who I would categorize as mystics, but fortunately I was not made to participate in any of it. Irrationalism is very bad in its own way, and of course people who are trained to obey a faith and reject the evidence of their own mind and senses are also more easily led by others. But that’s not philosophical collectivism in the way that the left promotes.
Bystander: I don’t disagree, I despise the mindset of some out there Republicans who believe women are to be seen and not heard. I married a strong woman, with a mind of her own, and we raised our wonderful daughter to be strong and independent, and not be subservient to a man. Men and some religions have always had this obsession with women from the benign, meaning they must be protected, to the obscene where they need to be covered up, or engage in ritualistic baths to cleanse themselves as they are dirty. Whether the Democrats are more pro- woman as you indicate, is debatable, if it’s based on the abortion issue alone, then perhaps. And yet, we have those who say in defense of trans people, wish ti deny that biological women are women, or those who want to compete in women sports with the unfair advantages of being physically a man, but that’s another topic. I despise both parties the hypocritical Dems and their fake concern for the everyday people, to the faux patriotic Repubs and some Dems as well, who sent young men and women to die in places we never should have went into , and then say they died to protect our way of life and freedom. They died for nothing, and then a those who came back musing some or all of their limbs and the mental health issues as well. The USA is broken, and has been. Take care of you and yours the rest is all BS.
I believe Ben Franklin was an atheist.
Atheism is its own dogma. My sister is one and talks down about “Sky Daddy” to more religious members of family. Love her but she drives me nuts. No one should be so certain with the unknowable. I have problems with version of God taught in Christianity too. From the mouths of babes story – my very religious Irish Aunt is amazing person. Love her but Jesus this and that. She has a picture of Jesus in clouds above, on her wall. Her 4 year old grand-daughter says “granny, who is that”? She says “our lord Jesus who loves us and watches over us”. 4 year old says “..and where does he live? Can we see him?”. She says “oh, he lives very far up in the clouds in a place called heaven. We can’t go there”. 4 year old says: “who took the picture?”‘
Hah..I laugh every time. Its perfectly Irish response.
Bystander,
I don’t consider myself an atheist, but I could very well be labeled that or partially that, partially agnostic… not a huge fan of labels either way. Anyway, I agree completely no one should be so certain with the unknowable. But with god and religion in particular, the idea of knowing or not knowing is giving a special place in our hearts and minds due to the thousands of years of direct and indirect indoctrination / propaganda.
I’m more confident there’s not an invisible elephant on my roof right now than I am that there’s no god. But why shouldn’t I be?
Bystander: Old school Irish Catholicism is hard core, ironically, it’s not that old, and really came into force after the so called famine which was not , but that’s another topic. After the breakdown of rural society in the aftermath of that awful time, the Irish hierarchy decided the people needed a structure, actually a Strait jacket, it was a combination of strict Catholicism combined with the screwed up mores of Victorian society, totally alien to what society had been. That did a psychological number on the people, but that too is another topic. Prior to the so called famine, Irish Catholicism was pretty loose and easy going, and there were not enough Priests to serve the population, and it was still heavily infused with pagan beliefs or practices, or pagan practices with a Catholic veneer. The church made great efforts to stamp those practices out, but were not able to even after the famine era. St, Brigid was far more important in Irish society then St. Patrick was, she in turn was given attributes of a pagan goddess named Brigid.
Left and Lib,
Thanks- really.
I fight with that all of the time. But she likes it here with me. She knows the effort I put in and how I fought for her. So time will tell. She knows the drill.
As far as the rest:
Sure I am a cynic. I used to be as easy going as it gets. Used to be, not so much anymore. Probably why this happened- ex wasn’t afraid to pull this, others tell me things would have ended much different than me if it were them. Tolerance break shoes went from full thickness to rivets in one shot. I’m done.
Worked all my life. Saved and invested. Gone.
I respect those that work hard. Love (most) of the crew I work with.
Now I get to live in an apartment with some that pay the full nut-that work really hard, 2 jobs, just to make ends meet, then others-one so freaky it has a farm animal as a “therapy pet”- no lie.
So many that are collecting when they can work- I go with a bad back, knees, and shoulder- every time, produce, as expected.
I can be “collectivist” to a point- and capitalist to a point. Both work fine except for the freaks on the extreme that take advantage of either system.
The cynic in me says this place is too far gone. Lib having one foot out the door is a step in the right direction. But I have a kid here that I will go to any extreme to protect-hell, didn’t even think I’d want one when it happened. It changes you.
They tried to take her once. Once.
Drinks on me to whoever gets that movie reference. It’s one of my faves.
In other news Sarah Palin lost. Don’t underestimate the woman’s drive to control her body and how she will vote. At a minimum it’s a shot across the bow.
And lastly for today- can’t go a day without a cop shooting an unarmed person. Dude less than a second after opening the door? Put some hydrocortisone on those trigger fingers if they get that itchy. It’s really getting tiring now.
https://bit.ly/3cyn60a
Sarah Palin. Buh Bye. Her dumbass lost.
Crazier than Palin losing is a Democrat winning a congressional seat in Alaska. Doesn’t look good for the Republicans going into what should have been a big midterm election for them. Tick tick tick…
Don’t get all moist yet, libs….
Two Republicans split the ticket on a rank choice ballot for a term that expires in January.
Party needs to figure it out before the November election for the real term among this same cast of characters. Repubs got 60% of the overall vote on first ballot.
Retreads like Palin need to exit.
3b,
Great summary of Irish Catholicism. Like most things, ultimate power corrupts and post-famine they wielded it hard. I see no religious brain-washing with younger cousins. It is a relief from my mother’s stories as she was sent to convent for a time during youth. Some customs die hard – I have a Brigid’s cross over my door. I had to explain it to my Jewish friends as it creeped them out..hah.
Phoenix,
You are the salt of this blog. The streaming conscience of life’s ups and downs. I have gone through divorce but nothing like yours as no kids. I can only say that I hope you find happiness after this tumult settles down. I truly hope you find a good woman, something who nurtures and enhances your life. My second time around is nothing like first. It is not perfect but wanting the same core things at this point in life is paramount.
AMF Palin…you betchya.
“The reason Palin lost is because 50% of Begich voters DID NOT pick Palin as their 2nd choice. A staggering 28% of them chose Peltola as their 2nd choice”
Palin is an idiot. The problem for the right is they have a few of them running in the fall. Herschel Walker is another example. Can barely string a sentence together.
The left is more dogmatic. I know quite a few blue collar who vote D despite it going against nearly every interest. They will elect someone braindead more willingly. My guess is fetterman will beat oz without ever leaving his basement. There’s a second vegetable about to be elected by the left.
Bystander: Thanks. I find it a fascinating subject.
Regarding the Alaska election, I read that votes were confused by the preference system of electing someone. I don’t understand that, it seems pretty straightforward to me. If that confused them, it’s telling in my opinion.
A high school teacher in Texas is causing parental concern after a lesson in which she told students that pedophiles should not be labeled as such. I am good paraphrasing here, she said it’s not their fault if an adult is attracted to a 5 year old child. She told her students they should not be labeled as a pedophiles but rather as MAP’s , Minor Attracted Persons. Are we now supposed to show compassion for these monsters??
3b,
That wouldn’t surprise me. The Alaskan school system is hardly worth attending. I actually know a few who have.
Lib: I agree does not say much for the public school system, if an adult is confused by the first choice, second choice and so on concept. Its pretty basic in my view.
3B,
Read the article, it was taken out of context. She was clearly teaching a lesson that the Woke movement has gone to far. It seems that this was sarcasm. Now if this was Montclair…or Los Angeles.
Going by the technicals, this market is starting to look ugly again. Especially the Nas. Bloodbath in September?
“The reason Palin lost is because 50% of Begich voters DID NOT pick Palin as their 2nd choice. A staggering 28% of them chose Peltola as their 2nd choice…Palin is an idiot.”
As I said, she’s got to go…she’s a toxic dingbat. Always has been. Makes perfect sense that drunken fool McCain chose her as his running mate.
Party needs to get involved here. The initial vote was Peltola (40%), Palin (31%), and Begich (29%).
There’s a second vegetable about to be elected by the left
Tomatoe/tomato
Potato/potatoe
Silver is down to a 2-year low and asking prices for 90% junk coin are as if silver is $28/ounce. Perhaps an infomercial is the next step to draw the meekly muppet masses? /sarcasm/
Surprisingly, inflation is grinding up your dollar so you would think shiny metals would be rising. Can’t figure it.
The initial vote was Peltola (40%), Palin (31%), and Begich (29%).
Hold on… I thought it was just R vs. D in the race? There were 2 republicans running against one democrat? Please explain.
Just closed my last SPY 420 hedges yesterday/this morning…too much in gains to keep on…let’s see what next week’s open looks like and I may put on more down and out….but, as I’ve said before my eyes see a line around 3850 where there will be at least a pause so not that much more room…not the same as at 4280 lol.
Puts from yesterday are bleeding but lots of room there…let’s get to the weekend. Weather gets better and the adults can return to the desks. For fun, payrolls and UE Friday of Labor Day….
Chi,
Let me close the loop on this PPP discussion from my side. I want to make it crystal clear that I did not do the initial search of your firm in the PPP database. As Grim confirmed that was Yo!. I just confirmed what was found.
From my side I went from “This is going to be interesting to see how he spins this!” to very quickly “Holy Sh1T, he really doesnt know his firm is in there.”
You say you had no knowledge or derived financial interest or benefit, I believe you. I also understand that this may have further ramifications for you and your firm. My unsolicited advice is stop posting about this subject while you work though this. You are emotional at the moment and may post something you later regret.
Good luck with the path forward.
“Hold on… I thought it was just R vs. D in the race?”
Yeah, MSM needs to report this as a defeat for Rs and especially DJT (through his proxy Palin).
Four candidates were running for this temporary seat, they will run again in November for the permanent seat (Jan 2023-Jan 2025). One D, two Rs, on Libertarian…
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/
Few States are redder than Alaska….
Lib: I will go back and check the article. I obviously missed that.
leftwing,
The same four candidates are going to run again? Maybe someone should hide Palin? And who came up with this ranked voting system and why? I feel like I just had a 3-credit course reading that article.
Fast Eddie,
Change gets more and more difficult the older you get.
Yeah Ranked Choice can be confusing. Only two states have ranked voting. Maine and Alaska.
Here is the Ballot used. Primary is at the top, the special election to fill the empty house seat for the remainder of this term on the second page.
https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election/2022/prim/HD99.pdf
Eddie, my understanding, yes. Unsure if there will be a fourth candidate or not. An Independent who was supposed to run in this election dropped out, probably also moving proportionally more votes to Peltola.
Very confusing…you have a special election to fill the last four months of the seat of Rep. Young (passed away earlier this year), the November election for the full term for the seat for the next two years, and primaries for that election all overlaid with the new rank choice voting system.
If there is a silver lining this ‘dry run’ loss for a four month seat in an overwhelming Repub State needs to be a wakeup call for Repubs on managing rank choice and this fumble gives them time to recover for November. It’s on them if after this special election flare and a 20 percentage point advantage they blow November.
Dark storm cloud? As 538 reports, Dobbs is having an effect…
BTW – How confusing was it? Seems about 1 in 5 voters were confused. Approx. 20% of the ballots cast did NOT have a second choice for the house seat only 1st choice was filled out.
LOL, my guess is that the ‘confusion’ wasn’t over the ballot, which is very straightforward, but the potential outcome….
That is, when selecting their preferred Republican the vote for Peltola as second was ‘feel good’…I would suggest that very few Rs doing that assumed she would actually WIN….
Question is now, was that a wakeup call and what are Rs doing about it.
The irony is that Palin beat Begich by only two percentage points…538 reports and common sense dictates had that been reversed and Begich squeaked out a slight win over Palin, the second choice votes of Palin voters would have put Begich over the top against Peltola…rank choice makes politics chess now, rather than checkers….
“Yeah, MSM needs to report this as a defeat for Rs and especially DJT (through his proxy Palin).”
It is not as simple as stating the Rs split the ticket. Go look up Begich family – a big Democratic political family with long history is Alaska. More to story, though I don’t care too much to dig into it.
Nasdaq is down another 2%. ISM came in hot. I’ve been saying this inflation is out of control since the middle of last year. Remember all, the Fed asset sell-off doubles starting today. Keep your eyes out for any contagion. I’m really not an expert in this area, but I have a feeling that the FED is going to have a hard time cleaning its balance sheet while it tries to save us from a housing collapse. That collapse IS happening now. Look at 23 Alexander in Montclair. Bought for 350 last year, knocked down and replaced by a 5BR/5 full BR luxury home. Asking 1.8 mill. Sitting for three months now. Zillows at 1.9. This house would have disappeared in 3 minutes 6 months ago. A lot of flippers are about to turn into home renovators again.
Change gets more and more difficult the older you get.
But I’m only 29. ;)
ByS, don’t disagree, think I’ve shown how complex that election was on many fronts…my point on MSM is that when I went to find a reference for Eddie not a single one – CNN, NYT, WaPo – had the full results (ie, including first round).
Much better to headline Trump’s R candidate lost to a Dem…omitting of course the State went 60-40 Republican in the election and Trump carried the State over Biden (+10pts) and Hillary (+15pts)…..
Lib, demented grandma running toward a 3 handle on ARKK…stock at 40, anyone want to take the other side of a bet she’ll see her low of 36 before 44?
$803 million in outflows last month….
Pick which dogs she’s going to be forced to sell, get in front….
The real question is, why would you ever try to bring Palin back. She was an embarassment.
The Alaska results are not a bellwether for the November midterms. All they are are a referendum of that whacko Sarah Palin. Enough moderate Republicans and Independents in the state decided they would prefer to represented in the house by a Democrat than that circus sideshow. Had Begich got more votes than Palin and her original votes redistributed, than Begich likely would have prevailed.
“Democrats have clearly overperformed in special elections since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson in June, but the reasons for Peltola’s win may have been more local than national.
Namely, Palin was a very flawed candidate. After her 2008 vice-presidential campaign flopped, Palin resigned the governorship (reportedly amid ethics investigations), bought a house in Arizona and went on to appear on reality TV — giving many Alaskans the sense that she had abandoned them. According to a July poll from Alaska Survey Research, 61 percent of Alaska registered voters had a negative opinion of her. It’s hard to win with those kinds of numbers.
It seems likely then, that had a different Republican advanced to the final round, Peltola would have lost. According to that same poll — which almost exactly nailed the final margin between Peltola and Palin — Begich would have defeated Peltola 55 percent to 45 percent if he had made it to the final round instead of her. That would still have been bluer than Alaska’s R+15 partisan lean, but it mostly demonstrates how much of Republicans’ underperformance here may have been due to simple candidate quality (or lack thereof).
What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes. Sixty percent of voters selected a Republican (either Palin or Begich) as their preferred candidate, while only 40 percent selected a Democrat (Peltola), perhaps a better gauge of their actual partisan preferences. In fact, by that metric, the Alaska special election was actually an overperformance for Republicans. Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.
So it’s not clear what, if any, national lessons we can take away from the Alaska election. But that’s OK — because you should never generalize based on a single special election. They are simply too prone to idiosyncrasies such as, for example, a uniquely flawed candidate. Instead, you have to average several special elections together before they become predictive of the midterms. ”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/
Alaska is also a state where Lisa Murkowski, who lost in the Republican primary during when she stood for re-election in 2010, was able to win in the general election as a write in candidate. She was the first person to win Senate election as a write in in over 50 years.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-elections-murkowski/senator-lisa-murkowski-wins-alaska-write-in-campaign-idUSTRE6AG51C20101118
Just because the voters reject bad candidates like Palin, and likely Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz doesn’t mean the election was rigged.
If Sarah Palin is an embarrassment, and she certainly is, then Trump is most certainly one as well. Can the Republicans get rid of him too?
Here is where the R party is with burnt Orange moron.
https://tinyurl.com/fmtxuy7t
“Just because the voters reject bad candidates like Palin, and likely Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz doesn’t mean the election was rigged.”
Was with you right up to this….haven’t heard anyone allege it. Not even the Orange Idiot.
Sorry Left Wing:
Tom Cotton today:
“Ranked choice voting is a scam to rig elections.”
https://twitter.com/tomcottonar/status/1565139540834222080?s=21&t=QbI-tOPgeW2Bw919ED9Anw
MAGA’s problem in Alaska is that they might outnumber more moderate/independent minded voters…so they will outperform them in the initial vote count round and knock the moderate out, but those who support the more moderate candidate likely to cast their second choice for the dem over someone too far to the right. If they can coalesce around a more centrist candidate from the start, a Democratic candidate would not stand a chance there.
OK….no one here at least, Gator.
If you want to raise that issue I’ll take a stab…again, each State (not the Feds) have the right to set their own election procedures…ranked choice is now the method in two of our fifty states.
While I won’t defend Cotton’s click bait headline (“scam”) his factual assertion is correct…60% of the voters of the State wanted a Republican and they ended up with a Democrat.
Not only did we not hear a peep from the NYT, et. al. but as I stated it was impossible to find even that first round voting fact in their reporting…
Would you care to venture a guess as to what their headline would have been had a Congressional race in a 60/40 Democrat State gone Republican?
Or better, had a minority Democrat candidate in a 60/40 Democrat State been upended by a, gasp, white Republican male immediately following institution of a novel voting system?
I would guess 28 point font above the center fold and the letter ‘R’ would have such frequent use it would fade from their keyboard…they would be howling from the rooftops.
As I said, ranked choice now turns elections from checkers to chess. republicans got a dry run in a meaningless race and they have a couple months to figure it out. Either they do, or they don’t.
At least the Alaska race was more straightforward than the NYC Mayoral Primary. The voters in Alaska yesterday could rank every candidate in the race to ensure their ballot was counted in all rounds.
In NYC there were 13 candidates on the ballot and voters only had the ability to rank 5. Over 15% of the ballots in that race were exhausted and weren’t counted toward either of the final candidates in that race.
“While I won’t defend Cotton’s click bait headline (“scam”) his factual assertion is correct…60% of the voters of the State wanted a Republican and they ended up with a Democrat.”
We don’t know the 60% voted for the party. All we know is that not enough ranked the other republican candidate as their second choice.
House on the corner just closed. $2k over ask @ $777,000 it was as listed for about 5 weeks before the offer came in. Previous sale was $450,260 in 2011…. Zero improvements since then parents had gotten divorced and the mother then died of cancer last year. The yard and lawn needs a complete rip and replace as it’s all weeds and has a flying ant infestation.
Joyce “re: We don’t know?”
Sure we Do.
112,701 voted Republican in Round 1 vs 75,761 for the Democrat.
That is 40.2% for the Dems. The other 59.8% voted Republican.
As I said 21% of Begich voters chose not to rank a second choice. That was 11,288 Republican voters who were not counted towards anyone. Palin would have won if they picked her as second instead of nobody.
29% of Begich voters crossed party lines and ranked Mary Peltola, because they did not want Palin no matter what.
It will be interesting to see if Begich and Palin work out some kind of deal for November election to re-take the seat.
“At least the Alaska race was more straightforward than the NYC Mayoral Primary.”
Not criticizing Alaska or the way the race was held. Citizens and legislature of Alaska exercised their right to do so. I do wish the left and its MSM proxies would stop howling when Red States exercise their same prerogative.
“We don’t know the 60% voted for the party. All we know is that not enough ranked the other republican candidate as their second choice.”
What Juice said.
“It will be interesting to see if Begich and Palin work out some kind of deal for November election to re-take the seat.”
This is where the Party needs to step in…basically, figure out a winning game plan and then cram it down on the candidates…Party can ensure neither one of these two get elected dogcatcher ever again if they want to play hardball…problem is that will surface the DJT/Party rift right before the general which could reverberate more broadly…compliment (?) to the Dems, they are much better (more brutal) in keeping their candidates in line than the Repubs….
Juice Box,
You’re correct on the stats; I understand their ranked choice method. But you’re not correct on knowing for sure. Not enough of voters chose a republican as their second choice. We don’t know if that was because they didn’t like the other republican candidate, because they liked a different candidate better as 2nd option, if they were unsure how to fill out the ballot or something else.
“We don’t know the 60% voted for the party. All we know is that not enough ranked the other republican candidate as their second choice.”
Why are you assuming that wasn’t intentional?
“We don’t know the 60% voted for the party.”
What I mean is that we don’t know that 60% voted for the party and not for the specific individuals.
BREAKING:
Judge Mehta delivered a 10 year prison sentence — the longest yet — to Jan. 6th defendant Thomas Webster, a former NYPD cop who assaulted a police officer at the Capitol during the insurrection.
Liberals live in the same dream world 4 year olds do.
We’re going all ev in 2035, but don’t charge your car in the afternoons because the grid can’t handle it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11169955/California-EV-drivers-mock-warning-not-charge-heatwave.html
I would have thought that RCV would be welcomed by the crowd in here that laments the two party system. It does show that while in a lot of cases the front runner wins, if they dont get it on the first few rounds, the deeper it goes the bigger the swings.
Here is a nice analysis of NYC. https://www.fairvote.org/rcv_in_new_york_city#candidate_analysis
What is getting missed in the analysis about is that AK turnout was only 27%. So to say the state is a 60/40 split is not really accurate. Almost 13% of the R turnout did not transfer to Sister Sarah. If Begich does not run, they stay home, Peltola still wins.
One of the problems the Rs have is that they have to go MAGA for their primary and are unable to pivot to the center for the general. In deep Red states thats fine. In purple states thats a big issue and thats what we see in AZ, GA and TX.
Offshoring thread.
https://twitter.com/frankoz95967943/status/1564751252671516672?s=21&t=Omr0GF91crPUXxRX_F0KzA
On lawns, I haven’t watered all summer. However, the clover has all sprung back to life and helps keep the grass from full dormancy. Most people wipe out the clover on their lawn yearly. I haven’t fertilized in 4 years now.