Will services save us from recession?

From Quartz:

The service economy is keeping the US from slipping into a recession

As US manufacturing activity slows down, spending on services is keeping the American economy afloat, recent data suggests. 

Growth in the services sector accelerated in August for the second month in a row, according to the Institute for Supply Management index released Tuesday. The indicator, which is based on a survey of purchasing and supply executives, came in at 56.9% in August, reaching its highest point in four months. (A reading above 50% denotes expansion.)

Survey responses show a booming services sector as companies benefit from a slowdown in inflation and more reliable supply chains. Executives in a variety of areas, from mining to real estate, reported business is growing. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and arts, entertainment and recreation were the only two sectors to contract.

“Starting to see some cost pressures relief,” said one survey participant in the food services industry. “The overall supply environment is healthy.”

Other data underscore the trend. The personal consumption expenditure report, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis a couple of weeks ago, showed that, adjusted for inflation, spending on services increased by 0.2% in July compared to June.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

68 Responses to Will services save us from recession?

  1. dentss dunnagan says:


  2. Very Stable Genius says:


    Stephen Bannon is expected to surrender on Thursday to New York authorities to face state charges in an indictment that remains sealed, according to a person familiar with the case. The nature of the charges remains unclear.

  3. Juice Box says:


    The Delaware Grand Jury investigating the Biden Family never heard any testimony from whistleblower Tony Bobulinski. He was never was brought before a Delaware Grand Jury investigating the Biden family. Other former business partners of Hunter Biden testified and at least one was asked the identity of “the Big Guy,”.

  4. Juice Box says:


    “All of the actors from ‘Friends’ are now older than the youngest ‘Golden Girl’ was in that show’s first season,” Eli McCann, an attorney and host of a podcast called “Strangerville,” wrote in a tweet over the weekend.”

    “Have a nice day,” McCann wrote to his more than 28,000 Twitter followers.

    The sobering statistic about the cast of the 1990s hit, “Friends,” reaching the age of a member of the senior foursome of “The Golden Girls,” — which included actors Betty White, Bea Arthur, Rue McClanahan and Estelle Getty — ignited a similarly fiery response from a pair of lawmakers on opposite ends of the political spectrum.

    Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) replied that the news “ruined” his day.

    “Thanks for nothing,” the 49-year-old said, later tweeting that he was “embarrassed” that he “spent so much of my morning doing poor Golden Girls age math.”

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) appeared to share in his Senate colleague’s outrage.”

  5. Old realtor says:

    Regarding the AOC discussion yesterday, this is who is the Republican nominee in the race. Thoughts?

  6. Juice Box says:

    Thoughts? Forte has a better chance of winning the lottery than NY-14 congressional seat. You could run Elon Musk against AOC with him promising to add 100,000 good jobs to the Bronx and Queens and they will still vote for her no matter what. Again “no matter what”.

    398,657 Hispanic
    123,547 Black
    137,512 White
    89,031 Asian

  7. Libturd says:

    Old Realtor,
    “We fighted for the future of our country. Tank you.”

    “Get yer asses to the Capitol.”

  8. Fast Eddie says:


    Judge grants Trump’s request for a ‘special master’ to review materials seized from Mar-a-Lago

  9. Juice Box says:

    BREAKING twitter news.

    1)Military military documents are Israeli capabilities.

    2)It explains why the Saudi’s gave Jared Kushner $2B

    So the twisted logic from the left now is Kushner betrayed Israel for money…….

  10. Phoenix says:

    I’m sure it was the students that demanded this in exchange for high tuition:

    Students at William Paterson University in Wayne will be feasting like kings this year.

    The dining hall was entirely renovated and reimagined, with a menu sure to please a wide variety of tastes. Complete with 10 themed stations — mini-restaurants of their own — and made-to-order meals from around the globe, the university’s new dining hall is officially next-level.

    The modern facility features an inviting, colorful interior with a wall of windows, USB charging ports, and a selection of seating options including restaurant-style booths and high-top tables designed to support community engagement. Each food station in the dining hall includes open concepts that allow visitors to interact with kitchen staff while their menu selection is being prepared.

    At the entrance is a hydroponic garden where rows of fresh herbs and lettuces are grown and utilized in the various menu items. Behind the salad bar, the produce used in the dining hall is on display in a wall of extra-large, glass-door refrigerators, making the food itself part of the facility’s fresh and colorful design aesthetic.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    “At the entrance is a hydroponic garden where rows of fresh herbs and lettuces are grown and utilized in the various menu items.”

    anything else?

  12. Fast Eddie says:


    The high tuition/luxurious facilities will be paid for by tax payers through the student loan debt forgiveness pulled from the democrat ‘slight of hand’ bag of tricks.

  13. No One says:

    Most schools separate the food costs into Meal Plan options, rather than building it into tuition. Some kids are going to be eating 3 or even 4 meals per day at a school’s dining options, especially the athletes and the poor kids on scholarships. And I’ll bet it doesn’t cost much more to serve students good tasting and optionally healthy food than it does to serve them starchy slop from Sysco. If the food’s not good on campus, the wealthy kids use the family credit card to eat off campus. The poor kids cannot as easily do that. And having good food on campus puts kids in a better mood, creates a better campus environment, and saves kids time.
    If you want to rail against rising college tuition, look at the administrative bloat, especially the new surge of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion directors and their staffs, who are taking over schools from the inside while worsening curriculum and standards. As well as the celebrity tenured teachers who get paid more as they teach less.

  14. Ex says:

    Yeah we all read drudge & the Dailies.

    Trump had nuke secrets. He. Is. Toast.

    Bannon’s pardon from Drumpf doesn’t cover state charges.

  15. Ex says:

    Don’t talk to me about electric cars until the grid in this
    arid paradise can handle home air conditioners

  16. 3b says:

    Student Debt forgiveness is expected to cost 1 trillion! Hey, it’s only money!

  17. 3b says:

    Old: AOC is a Congresswoman, the other one is not, big difference.

  18. No One says:

    Sorry Ex,
    I hear they’ve also outlawed gas and natural gas generators out there. Utopian government. I’ll bet the governor has air conditioning.
    Do you have a pool to jump in, or has that ben banned too?

  19. Old realtor says:

    My AOC vs Forte comment was about the quality of candidates and choices available to voters. It also highlights differences between radical left and radical right political candidates.

  20. 3b says:

    Old: I agree if your point is the quality of candidates in both parties are bad. It just reflects the decline of this country.

  21. Phoenix says:

    Your tax dollars hard at work. Really hard, like hard on.


  22. 3b says:

    Britain has a new PM, Liz Truss, she is already being referred to as Maggie Thatcher de cafe. Not liked by government officials in the Conservative party, and not expected to last long. Her Parents were left wingers, and she was a member of the Liberal party at one point. She converted to Conservatism in Oxford. I am expecting she is a zealot, like Elizabeth Warren who was originally on the right. Those that go from one extreme to the other tend to be zealots once converted to the other side

  23. Ex says:

    10:17…don’t get me started!

  24. Libturd says:

    I agree with nearly all of Warren’s fiscal positions, but she is simply not terribly smart. In 2020, I caught her on an interview with one of the late night hosts and she didn’t even realize she was being played. She was asked a question which was clearly a joke and she answered it.

    Then there was the whole fake Bernie smear attempt, the Pocahontas mistake, etc.

  25. BRT says:

    In 1998, Rutgers was charging $21 a meal for their slop from the dining halls. They would force the freshman residents to take a 18 meal a week plan because “you might not be able to budget on your own”. I can only imagine they are charging $30 to $35 now. They could serve the kids sashimi tuna and still come out way ahead. Given that they are turning these places into de facto 4 year vacation resorts, the business model only makes sense to improve the on campus food.

    Consequently, avoiding the meal plans as an upperclassman is what allowed me to discover Greek, middle eastern, Ethiopian, various south american and a number of other great cuisines in the Middlesex Co. area.

  26. No One says:

    My family loves going to Sahara near Rutgers. Except sometimes I get frustrated trying to find a place to park. Any advice BRT?

  27. Libturd says:

    The Brower Commons in New Brunswick always had a history of being inedible. Though, I can’t speak for the last decade. When I was a kid and my brothers and sisters were babysitting me, they used to let me sneak in no problem. Literally, nobody ate anything that they cooked there. The meal plan at Montclair State was no different. Though when I went through, the average meal swipe worked out to between $3 and $4 per meal. We understood why the food was horrible. The cafeteria in the Student Center to support the commuters was eons better, but they only let us apply $4 to a purchase there. Still, a slice of pizza and a Coke was so far superior to the regular dining halls that most of us just ate there and starved or cooked meals in our residence halls. As an RA, I had a full kitchen in my single. Godsend, it was.

    I have now toured at least ten colleges. All of these colleges realize that the food quality is a huge selling point, especially when the dorms are unairconditioned tenements built during the 40s and early 50s. There are lots of newer dorms too, but the old ones are never improved. Sadly, there is usually no cost difference. Just luck of the draw.

    I’ve toured, Boston University, U Mass Amherst, MIT, Babson, Providence, Colorado at Boulder, UC SD, UC SB, UC LA, Amherst, Lehigh and Lafayette. The older the school, the worse the dining options are. Providence, Colorado, and UC San Diego had amazing dining halls where pretty much anything and everything was available.

    I just did a cursory look at the cost of meal plans at these better facilities versus Rutgers and Montclair and as you would not expect, NJ’s shitty dining plans are about 1/3rd more expensive than the schools with amazing facilities. Add this to the list of reasons that NJ sucks.

  28. Libturd says:

    No One,

    Sahara is really good. Our family gets together to eat there sometimes. That part of Easton is usually not THAT crowded for parking. You might have to walk a little, but there are plenty of sideroads around where you can park. If I recall, it’s all unmetered too. Restaurant has parking lot too, though it does fill up at peak times. We usually try to get there closer to 5pm to avoid this. We are usually a group of around ten to fifteen people.

    Anyone going to the football game on Saturday? I’ll be in the yellow lot if you want to meet up. I tailgate with a gang that has been going to games since they played in the Old Giant’s Stadium. Hence, the 16E Flag on the Winnebago (which is in the shop for this game, so we have a tent.)

  29. Libturd says:

    Jeremy Grantham said that investors celebrating the bear market rally and terming it a “new bull market” is absolutely ludicrous. “That is nonsense”, he stressed. Grantham believes there are several stages of a super bubble popping. First, the market crashes as it did in the first half of 2022, followed by a slight bear rally. At last, equities break down again and the market reaches a bottom. The short-term constraints to the macro environment include the Russian war on Ukraine and its consequences, the food and energy crisis, China’s Covid policies, rising inflation, and the fiscal tightening. Worsening corporate profits will lead to the upcoming round of losses at the stock market, according to Grantham”


  30. Chicago says:


    RE 12:00. Yeah, everything looks as if we should get crap news across the next 6-8 weeks. I hate to be so simplistic at blockheaded, but following the yield on the 10 year , and also economic data to drive Fed moves, seems to screen out all the white noise.

    Let’s get a FFR 350-400 and yield on Ten to 500. What is the big mystery meat?

    I think the big problem is Europe and China. Big drag.

    Through parity on Euro. Did you see Sterling? Maybe Lib Jr should consider London. Parity with Sterling is at least a possibility. Hasn’t been this weak since 1998.

  31. Very Stable Genius says:


    A Pennsylvania man who stormed the Capitol on January 6 and was turned in by an ex-girlfriend after he called her a “moron” for not believing the presidential election was stolen, has just been sentenced to nine months in prison.

    Richard Michetti will also serve two years of supervised release.

  32. Libturd says:

    Chi, I did see the pound. Just crazy. WHY DOES THE WORLD LOVE US? The average person in this country can’t count change.

    I think perhaps Stern said it best yesterday as he came back from his Summer break, which I don’t begrudge him for, as he really should have retired about ten years ago. He’s better three times a week anyway. Less banter, more content. Nonetheless, he has been honing in on his legacy lately. Before his father Ben went senile, he interviewed his oft-slighted father who was relatively successful himself. He made it very clear. What the Trumpees think is the oppression of freedom and liberties is absolutely nothing compared with life in most of the European and Asian continents. He left the old country for the freedom that is America. He too sees the Trump movement as fascist and familiar. It was exactly what he escaped from.

    IMO, the biggest risk to the American economy is the vitriol aimed at each other by the two parties. That Trump commercial, and in response, Biden’s Philly speech, are real threats to US treasury yields. We are at a bad place for the rest of the world to lose hope in us. I’m not sure how the two sides are ever going to reconciliate, but it HAS to happen for SAKE of the country. If not, things are going to get really sh1tty around here, real soon. You can try to blame it on Trump or Biden, but the truth is it’s the product of the two parties lack of ability to compromise.

    Would love to see one side really reach out to the other. Not going to happen. Too much personal wealth is at stake.

  33. SmallGovConservative says:

    Libturd says:
    September 7, 2022 at 11:55 am
    “Anyone going to the football game on Saturday? I’ll be in the yellow lot if you want to meet up.”

    Will be there and would stop by to introduce myself — whether you like it or not — but anticipate I’ll barely get there in time for kickoff. Nice to see you supporting the program; perhaps you’d be willing to use some of the windfall from the sale of your rental to buy a few players — that’s legal now, you know?

  34. leftwing says:

    Compromise is you losing. Nothing more.

    “Thoughts? Forte has a better chance of winning the lottery than NY-14 congressional seat. You could run Elon Musk against AOC…”

    You could run Jesus Christ himself there and even with that demographic if he were on an R ticket he would lose lol…have to get in on the goof, that there is even an R candidate is just a huge trolling…

  35. BRT says:

    Lib, I lived 2 blocks from Sahara in what is now Fritz’s for 6 years. My apartment literally was Fritz’s. But yeah, Sahara was such a great eating spot. Those appetizer dips (all of them) are really where it’s at. That and the spicy lentil soup. Last time I was in NB, my old bagel guy from 20 years ago was running the pita oven there. I usually stop at the Manville one now for takeout. They reopened after Ida did a number on them.

  36. BRT says:

    No One, we used to do Buccleuch Park’s lot. It’s not a far walk to Sahara. Not sure if they changed regulations there. It’s a park after all. Walk across landing lane bridge afterwards. I was spoiled because I had Rutgers staff parking.

  37. leftwing says:


    Let’s see what Powell says at CATO tomorrow and the market’s reaction to CPI on the 13th….

    “Let’s get a FFR 350-400 and yield on Ten to 500.”

    ST rate targets getting mostly fulfilled, manage backend of the curve next, all while letting things run a little hot so employment doesn’t plummet…This is what the front edge of a soft landing looks like…’Sir, we’ve begun our initial descent. Please buckle up’. Doesn’t mean he’ll actually land it successfully, but this is what it feels like to break 33,000 feet…

    “I think the big problem is Europe and China. Big drag.”

    Agree. Those economies are getting hit hard, and the dollar won’t make it easier soon…

  38. BRT says:

    There was a secret on RU Livingston back then. The night time takeout at the dining hall was run by someone different. They brought in the same bread that tastee sub used and fresh cold cuts. They did the meat/cheese for you. It was as good as any jersey sub shop. And you put all the veggies on it yourself. You would get 3 sandwiches off the meal plan and put them in your minifridge. That was 2 days a week. Wednesday was fried chicken, mac/cheese, & cornbread. Again, very good. Basically, we purposely would starve ourselves til 8 pm to get edible food off our meal plan.

  39. Libturd says:

    “Agree. Those economies are getting hit hard, and the dollar won’t make it easier soon…”

    And housing is most likely collapsing here. Don’t judge it by what you see here. Go look at Vegas, Austin, the towns that exploded during the Pandemic.

    “Fast-forward to today, and Las Vegas is once again at the center of a cooling housing market: On a year-over-year basis, inventory in Las Vegas is up 83%. Not only is Las Vegas slowing fast, it’s slowing historically fast. In fact, its 2022 cooldown is swifter than the cooldown most bubbly markets notched in the lead-up to the 2008 crash.”


  40. Libturd says:

    BRT, that totally sounds plausible. Cool story.

  41. 3b says:

    Lib: As my Father an immigrant to this country always said when he was living, if this country goes down, then it’s all over for the rest of the world.

  42. 3b says:

    Lib: But what about all this demand we have heard about over the last couple of years?? Interest rates go to a still low 5 percent or so, and the demand is gone??

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:


    You aren’t getting a huge price decrease in the NYC metro area. These areas didn’t run up like the “it” locations over the past 10 years. They will not get killed like these other locations. This area has limited potential for expanding supply. We are not like vegas, nashville, carolinas, Florida, Colorado, Utah, and Texas. They will never be like this area in terms of a limited supply to go with a very strong economy. Cali has become like us on the coast, they will never have giant busts, just way too much demand and limited locations to build.

  44. RentL0rd says:


    Juice p**sy and F** Eddie are Maggots

  45. leftwing says:

    “And housing is most likely collapsing here. Don’t judge it by what you see here. Go look at Vegas, Austin, the towns that exploded during the Pandemic.”

    Look at the rent study I posted at the top of this page…Taking excesses out is part of the landing, no?

    We are well through that process as well since the most speculative have been seriously trimmed…SPAC and NFT creation obliterated, Crypto cut by 70%…Fed doesn’t necessarily want a deep haircut for RE or equities, just knock the excesses out…

  46. Juice Box says:

    Leftwing – I chose Musk because he could actually deliver something for the people there, and they still would vote against their own self interest, as long as they have one of their own in office.

    Bronx and Queens unemployment is still 9%. AOC is responsible along with other NY politicians for pushing away 40,000 good paying Amazon jobs in 2019 and they still re-elected her in 2020. These were not warehouse jobs either, and it was all over payment in lieu of taxes deals which are doled out by state governments all over.

  47. Libturd says:

    I remember when Tastee Subs were actually really good.

    We have a couple of excellent sandwich shops up here. Hero King in Nutley, even though the owner is a bit anti-sematic (ignorant). Sparo’s in Montclair. Though pricier and fancier than most, worth every penny.

    All the good sub shops I grew up with in Central Jersey have either gotten cheap or closed. Riddle & Martin in South River is probably the best of them still open.

  48. 3b says:

    Lib: Interesting article in the San Francisco Standard on real estate. I will leave it at that. It’s worth a read if you get a chance.

  49. No One says:

    Why would free-market CATO want a central planner Jerome Powell speaking at their conference? To throw virtual eggs at his video?
    Which reminds me – there’s an oft-repeated myth that Greenspan was a libertarian because of his early association with Ayn Rand. Greenspan was personally sympathetic to Rand, and in his early days wrote some pretty good essays under her tutelage. But in practice his attitude to economics was to be some sort of genius ubermensch who would track all the data possible and somehow use his will to influence it for the better. Verbally pro-free market, but never really using any political capital to actually change the system. I guy I knew at the Ayn Rand institute lost all respect for him when he blocked the commission looking into a resumption of the gold standard (because it would take away his powers) and his promotion of bailing out social security without a whimper. Some of that early Greenspan doublespeak was a way of him pretending to himself that he was a man of principles while also playing the Washington D.C. political game. No real fan of Ayn Rand’s philosophy would have married lefty journalist Andrea Mitchel. More power-luster and social climber than anything else, in the end.

  50. Libturd says:

    Link 3b?

  51. Fast Eddie says:


    The democrats are 60 days away from getting shellacked in the midterms!

  52. 3b says:

    Lib: sfstandard.com

  53. Libturd says:

    Fast Eddie,

    I think you are going to find out that the abortion decision is going to backfire horribly. Usually decisions that are made that the majority is against work against you in elections. So does claiming Freedom and being a patriot while restricting the rights of 50% of the population. We’ll see how well that goes.

  54. chicagofinance says:

    Hate to disagree. I consider it white noise.

    Libturd says:
    September 7, 2022 at 1:21 pm
    IMO, the biggest risk to the American economy is the vitriol aimed at each other by the two parties. That Trump commercial, and in response, Biden’s Philly speech, are real threats to US treasury yields. We are at a bad place for the rest of the world to lose hope in us.

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    So does claiming Freedom and being a patriot while restricting the rights of 50% of the population.

    Enabling restrictions on multiple levels to every facet of our lives is the pillar of democrat fundamentals. One “inconvenience” is not a restriction. If you want to terminate your baby, either go to a state that’ll gladly perform it or vote for representatives that will make it an option in the state where you live.

    But be honest; the left needs any helping hand it can get to gain votes. They fucked up everything worth anything and need to fire up the muppet lemmings. Elected liberals can give a shit about a woman’s right to choose or anyone’s rights to do anything, for that matter. If it meant selling their grandmother for a position of power, a democrat will mull it. The dems motto: “Ask not, what I can do for you; ask, what can you do for me.”

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why would you sign up to be a public school teacher. Look at how they compensate people to teach their kids.

    “Traditionally, he said, most of his clients have had a net worth north of $100 million, and tutors often traveled between homes with families, as part of their entourage. He said one such client is discussing hiring a tutor to drive down the coast of South America in a recreational vehicle and teach lessons to the children in different ports as the family sails down the coast in their yacht. The cost for the tutor’s services would be about $400,000”

    “Clients with tutors through her agency generally pay between $65,000 and $100,000 a year.”


  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Welcome to the Era of the $10,000 Designer Dorm Room
    College students hungry for comfort and TikTok acclaim are pouring extra creativity into decorating their living spaces


  58. Phoenix says:


    Which side is “Back The Blue?” It’s Repub isn’t it.

    This blue, who restrict your rights (knowingly).
    This guy isn’t teaching the police what your rights are, they are gaslighting you into thinking you are wrong when you know you are right.

    Anyone who supports those who knowingly infringe on your first amendment rights are not patriotic, and it’s overwhelmingly the Right that Back the Blue.


  59. BRT says:

    Why would you sign up to be a public school teacher. Look at how they compensate people to teach their kids.

    You can do both.

  60. Libturd says:

    “Hate to disagree. I consider it white noise.”

    I hope it is.

  61. 3b says:

    BRT: My nephew is a public school teacher in NYC, and tutors students from a private school on the side, so do his Fiancée; they are making a lot of money doing it too.

  62. Ex says:

    8:01 most people need social studies tutors?

  63. BRT says:

    Yes, every subject in a wealthy area (AP Gov, AP Econ, AP US History). I’m at $120, thinking of pushing it to $150 an hour. Although, I’m trying to avoid taking on much work this year. If I want to push the limits, I can get in 5 sessions a day, every day. A few years back, I was combining students into sessions and discounting them because there was too much demand with not enough hours in the day. It got to the point where I was getting 10 sessions in on weekends as well.

    I’m teaching AP Physics C, AP Physics 1, and AP Physics 2 this year so I don’t want to overload my afterschool schedule.

  64. BRT says:

    3b, I think NYC rates must be in the several hundred dollars an hour.

  65. 3b says:

    BRT: I don’t know his hourly rate , but my Brother told me he does 4 to 5 hours a week, during the school year, and was making about 25k. He does more in the summer, and works most of it. That’s additional to his school year tutoring.

  66. Libturd says:

    I know a kid whose mom tried to convince us to send our son to private SAT Prep. She said it’s really expensive but worth every penny. I know she spent thousands on it. Her kid’s score went down.

    I wish I was there when the score was emailed to her.

  67. BRT says:

    Lib, it really depends on the tutor and the kid. There’s a woman in Basking Ridge, I think her name is Jinny Hong. Her only job is tutoring, and she has 10 slots a day. Very competitive to get in. Kids on their study/lunch break go to her house during school hours and also after school. Her students all churned out big scores so she had the rep. She probably charges more now but when I was there, that was $1k a day for her.

  68. Libturd says:

    Of course. I wasn’t trying to put it down. I just wanted to share a funny and true story.

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